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I was wondering how Protoss is doing these days relative to other historic periods. I decided to chart the moving average of race appearances in the finalists of premier tournaments.
I like this metric for a couple reasons:
1. It's simple and pure - did you appear in a top 2? Yes or no.
2. It captures reality - results matter, not theory.
3. It rolls in a ton of data - finalists have to get through the bracket.
4. Individual skill is minimized - one player cannot bring the average over 50%.
5. Adjustable resolution - a moving average can be modified to filter out certain one-sided periods (i.e. GOMTvT).
The data used is the premier tournament page on Liquipedia. It goes all the way back to the start of WoL. I manually entered each value, so I would expect an error here or there, but it was quite the enjoyable trip down memory lane.
Without further ado, here is the data [note the scales are not constant]:
![[image loading]](https://files.catbox.moe/6k4kfr.png)
![[image loading]](https://files.catbox.moe/6sttzv.png)
![[image loading]](https://files.catbox.moe/nsuyxi.png)
Terran appeared in premier finals 189 times, Zerg 250, and Protoss 208.
A couple things stood out to me. I was surprised to see Terran be the least represented race historically. Zerg has enjoyed being over-represented in tournament finals for quite some time. Protoss took a big hit when Zergs dominance began, and hasn't recovered. Currently, Protoss is the least represented any race has been since the start of competitive SC2, by quite a margin.
If we are talking about balancing at the top level, Terran is over-represented while Protoss is significantly underrepresented. Zerg is doing worse than usual, but is still doing better than the 33% "ideal" average.
I'm going to throw my hat into the fire here and say that this settles the modern GOAT debate for me. Maru's dominance coincided with a period where Terran rarely made the finals, whereas Serral and Rogue dominated when Zerg was the most overrepresented of any race in SC2 history. + Show Spoiler +I specified the modern debate as we all know the real answer was mvp all along.
One more interesting tidbit is that we can compare the representation to an ideal of 1/3. By calculating the difference between ideal and actual, we can plot how imbalanced the game is over time, and get metrics on how effective balances patches are. Note that this will never be 0%. The following chart shows relative imbalance on a 1-year moving average:
![[image loading]](https://files.catbox.moe/3qdnsz.png)
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On November 02 2024 02:06 Monochromatic wrote:I'm going to throw my hat into the fire here and say that this settles the modern GOAT debate for me. Maru's dominance coincided with a period where Terran rarely made the finals, whereas Serral and Rogue dominated when Zerg was the most overrepresented of any race in SC2 history. + Show Spoiler +I specified the modern debate as we all know the real answer was mvp all along.
Yup.
People don't seem to remember that until 2020, Terran was almost unplayable at the pro level outside of Korea. The ONLY international competitions that Terran won were won by traveling Korean Terrans. Special and Kelazhur dominated Latin America and pretty much always have, but everywhere else it was Zerg and Protoss only.
It's only been very recently that Terran has seen success outside of Korea by non-Korean players.
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On November 02 2024 02:10 Vindicare605 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2024 02:06 Monochromatic wrote:I'm going to throw my hat into the fire here and say that this settles the modern GOAT debate for me. Maru's dominance coincided with a period where Terran rarely made the finals, whereas Serral and Rogue dominated when Zerg was the most overrepresented of any race in SC2 history. + Show Spoiler +I specified the modern debate as we all know the real answer was mvp all along. Yup. People don't seem to remember that until 2020, Terran was almost unplayable at the pro level outside of Korea. The ONLY international competitions that Terran won were won by traveling Korean Terrans. Special and Kelazhur dominated Latin America and pretty much always have, but everywhere else it was Zerg and Protoss only. It's only been very recently that Terran has seen success outside of Korea by non-Korean players.
I know people like to make up stories to boost Maru’s achievements
That’s because there was simply no good terrans outside of Maru in Korean 2020. Are we really going to pretend the other terrans were better than the other players or that they were losing cause terran was weak?
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Nice.
Statistical evidence that imbalance has increased whilst the Balance Council have been in charge.
I'm not surprised or angry, I'm just disappointed.
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On November 02 2024 02:18 Blitzball04 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2024 02:10 Vindicare605 wrote:On November 02 2024 02:06 Monochromatic wrote:I'm going to throw my hat into the fire here and say that this settles the modern GOAT debate for me. Maru's dominance coincided with a period where Terran rarely made the finals, whereas Serral and Rogue dominated when Zerg was the most overrepresented of any race in SC2 history. + Show Spoiler +I specified the modern debate as we all know the real answer was mvp all along. Yup. People don't seem to remember that until 2020, Terran was almost unplayable at the pro level outside of Korea. The ONLY international competitions that Terran won were won by traveling Korean Terrans. Special and Kelazhur dominated Latin America and pretty much always have, but everywhere else it was Zerg and Protoss only. It's only been very recently that Terran has seen success outside of Korea by non-Korean players. I know people like to make up stories to boost Maru’s achievements That’s because there was simply no good terrans outside of Maru in Korean 2020. Are we really going to pretend the other terrans were better than the other players or that they were losing cause terran was weak?
I'm fine if you want to make that argument, but if you're going to, you have to IMMEDIATELY apply that logic to Protoss in the current game and cease all other balance arguments for why Protoss isn't winning.
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On November 02 2024 02:28 Vindicare605 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2024 02:18 Blitzball04 wrote:On November 02 2024 02:10 Vindicare605 wrote:On November 02 2024 02:06 Monochromatic wrote:I'm going to throw my hat into the fire here and say that this settles the modern GOAT debate for me. Maru's dominance coincided with a period where Terran rarely made the finals, whereas Serral and Rogue dominated when Zerg was the most overrepresented of any race in SC2 history. + Show Spoiler +I specified the modern debate as we all know the real answer was mvp all along. Yup. People don't seem to remember that until 2020, Terran was almost unplayable at the pro level outside of Korea. The ONLY international competitions that Terran won were won by traveling Korean Terrans. Special and Kelazhur dominated Latin America and pretty much always have, but everywhere else it was Zerg and Protoss only. It's only been very recently that Terran has seen success outside of Korea by non-Korean players. I know people like to make up stories to boost Maru’s achievements That’s because there was simply no good terrans outside of Maru in Korean 2020. Are we really going to pretend the other terrans were better than the other players or that they were losing cause terran was weak? I'm fine if you want to make that argument, but if you're going to, you have to IMMEDIATELY apply that logic to Protoss in the current game and cease all other balance arguments for why Protoss isn't winning.
No, that doesn't follow. In one scenario we have a terran doing well (Maru, btw Maru wasn't the only korean terran doing well but whatever), and the others can't get to that level, so we can say that the others need to up their level of play to reach the level of the people doing well. In the other we have nobody doing well, so we have no basis to assert the existence of a level of play that they are unable to reach.
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On November 02 2024 02:33 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2024 02:28 Vindicare605 wrote:On November 02 2024 02:18 Blitzball04 wrote:On November 02 2024 02:10 Vindicare605 wrote:On November 02 2024 02:06 Monochromatic wrote:I'm going to throw my hat into the fire here and say that this settles the modern GOAT debate for me. Maru's dominance coincided with a period where Terran rarely made the finals, whereas Serral and Rogue dominated when Zerg was the most overrepresented of any race in SC2 history. + Show Spoiler +I specified the modern debate as we all know the real answer was mvp all along. Yup. People don't seem to remember that until 2020, Terran was almost unplayable at the pro level outside of Korea. The ONLY international competitions that Terran won were won by traveling Korean Terrans. Special and Kelazhur dominated Latin America and pretty much always have, but everywhere else it was Zerg and Protoss only. It's only been very recently that Terran has seen success outside of Korea by non-Korean players. I know people like to make up stories to boost Maru’s achievements That’s because there was simply no good terrans outside of Maru in Korean 2020. Are we really going to pretend the other terrans were better than the other players or that they were losing cause terran was weak? I'm fine if you want to make that argument, but if you're going to, you have to IMMEDIATELY apply that logic to Protoss in the current game and cease all other balance arguments for why Protoss isn't winning. No, that doesn't follow. In one scenario we have a terran doing well (Maru, btw Maru wasn't the only korean terran doing well but whatever), and the others can't get to that level, so we can say that the others need to up their level of play to reach the level of the people doing well. In the other we have nobody doing well, so we have no basis to assert the existence of a level of play that they are unable to reach.
Oh it absolutely does follow, but I don't have the patience right now to break out the white board and break it down for you again, especially since you keep showing again and again that you don't read everything I write when I get detailed about it.
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On November 02 2024 02:18 Blitzball04 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2024 02:10 Vindicare605 wrote:On November 02 2024 02:06 Monochromatic wrote:I'm going to throw my hat into the fire here and say that this settles the modern GOAT debate for me. Maru's dominance coincided with a period where Terran rarely made the finals, whereas Serral and Rogue dominated when Zerg was the most overrepresented of any race in SC2 history. + Show Spoiler +I specified the modern debate as we all know the real answer was mvp all along. Yup. People don't seem to remember that until 2020, Terran was almost unplayable at the pro level outside of Korea. The ONLY international competitions that Terran won were won by traveling Korean Terrans. Special and Kelazhur dominated Latin America and pretty much always have, but everywhere else it was Zerg and Protoss only. It's only been very recently that Terran has seen success outside of Korea by non-Korean players. I know people like to make up stories to boost Maru’s achievements That’s because there was simply no good terrans outside of Maru in Korean 2020. Are we really going to pretend the other terrans were better than the other players or that they were losing cause terran was weak?
Quickly checked liquipedia, and it showed both innovation and ty still active in 2020
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On November 02 2024 02:06 Monochromatic wrote:I was wondering how Protoss is doing these days relative to other historic periods. I decided to chart the moving average of race appearances in the finalists of premier tournaments. I like this metric for a couple reasons: 1. It's simple and pure - did you appear in a top 2? Yes or no. 2. It captures reality - results matter, not theory. 3. It rolls in a ton of data - finalists have to get through the bracket. 4. Individual skill is minimized - one player cannot bring the average over 50%. 5. Adjustable resolution - a moving average can be modified to filter out certain one-sided periods (i.e. GOMTvT). The data used is the premier tournament page on Liquipedia. It goes all the way back to the start of WoL. I manually entered each value, so I would expect an error here or there, but it was quite the enjoyable trip down memory lane. Without further ado, here is the data [note the scales are not constant]: Terran appeared in premier finals 189 times, Zerg 250, and Protoss 208. A couple things stood out to me. I was surprised to see Terran be the least represented race historically. Zerg has enjoyed being over-represented in tournament finals for quite some time. Protoss took a big hit when Zergs dominance began, and hasn't recovered. Currently, Protoss is the least represented any race has been since the start of competitive SC2, by quite a margin. If we are talking about balancing at the top level, Terran is over-represented while Protoss is significantly underrepresented. Zerg is doing worse than usual, but is still doing better than the 33% "ideal" average. I'm going to throw my hat into the fire here and say that this settles the modern GOAT debate for me. Maru's dominance coincided with a period where Terran rarely made the finals, whereas Serral and Rogue dominated when Zerg was the most overrepresented of any race in SC2 history. + Show Spoiler +I specified the modern debate as we all know the real answer was mvp all along. One more interesting tidbit is that we can compare the representation to an ideal of 1/3. By calculating the difference between ideal and actual, we can plot how imbalanced the game is over time, and get metrics on how effective balances patches are. Note that this will never be 0%. The following chart shows relative imbalance on a 1-year moving average:
interesting analysis!
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Yeah judging Maru's achievements from the graph, you'd think he was a Zerg player. Maybe he's just a really good TvZ player :D
TY, Maru and INnoVation were all great players, probably the top 3 Terrans. ByuN achieved an INCREDIBLE year as well.
Maxpax and herO would school these zergs if they played in HotS, but obviously the current cabal wouldn't allow balance to get to such a balanced state.
+ Show Spoiler +
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Would be even more Zerg favored if Rogue didn't go to military as well. To some extent you can say the same for T with TY/Inno but they didn't come particularly close to winning anything in their last 1-2 years before military anyways. Rogue won a GSL like 3 months before he started service.
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Protoss was relevant early SC2 history because it had many all inns that Zerg and Terran needed time to adapt to, once they knew how to counter it most all inns died at pro level. And in general the game was not figured out so balance was less of a issue at the time because most playstyles were not optimal just good for its time and the meta was far from figured out at this stage.
It also took them a little time to learn how to deal with the Protoss DeathBalls generally just because of lack of game understanding at the time, a lot of nerfs to protoss were actually uncalled for , it's just that the Zerg and Terran cries were pretty loud back then and still is.
So the more the meta settled and the more SC2 was figured out Protoss were becoming noticeably weaker a long the years and many of its strong playstyles would get nerfed pretty quickly as the Pro complaints were just overwhelming and the army of fans that followed players like Maru and your Dark and Rogue etc would just reinforce this false impression of Protoss being "to easy and to strong" Protoss is actually insanely hard to play at the elite level because you have less tools and you can make less mistakes then the other 2 races, people fail to understand this fact.
Protoss did find many playstyles over the years that "looked broken" but instead of having Terran and Zerg adapt they just did quick nerfs to Protoss, you can check the patch history and look at Tournament results its actually absurd.
Personally I believe herO is the best SC2 player we have at the moment but he cannot win because he plays Protoss. If the game was balanced I believe herO would absolutely destroy his competition. I don't think anyone comes even remotely close to herO in overall skill and ability
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Northern Ireland26616 Posts
On November 03 2024 15:59 Drahkn wrote:
Protoss was relevant early SC2 history because it had many all inns that Zerg and Terran needed time to adapt to, once they knew how to counter it most all inns died at pro level. And in general the game was not figured out so balance was less of a issue at the time because most playstyles were not optimal just good for its time and the meta was far from figured out at this stage.
It also took them a little time to learn how to deal with the Protoss DeathBalls generally just because of lack of game understanding at the time, a lot of nerfs to protoss were actually uncalled for , it's just that the Zerg and Terran cries were pretty loud back then and still is.
So the more the meta settled and the more SC2 was figured out Protoss were becoming noticeably weaker a long the years and many of its strong playstyles would get nerfed pretty quickly as the Pro complaints were just overwhelming and the army of fans that followed players like Maru and your Dark and Rogue etc would just reinforce this false impression of Protoss being "to easy and to strong" Protoss is actually insanely hard to play at the elite level because you have less tools and you can make less mistakes then the other 2 races, people fail to understand this fact.
Protoss did find many playstyles over the years that "looked broken" but instead of having Terran and Zerg adapt they just did quick nerfs to Protoss, you can check the patch history and look at Tournament results its actually absurd.
Personally I believe herO is the best SC2 player we have at the moment but he cannot win because he plays Protoss. If the game was balanced I believe herO would absolutely destroy his competition. I don't think anyone comes even remotely close to herO in overall skill and ability
What are you basing that on?
I think he’s a phenomenal, S-class player but he’s certainly not mechanically better than some of his competition
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On November 03 2024 21:15 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2024 15:59 Drahkn wrote:
Protoss was relevant early SC2 history because it had many all inns that Zerg and Terran needed time to adapt to, once they knew how to counter it most all inns died at pro level. And in general the game was not figured out so balance was less of a issue at the time because most playstyles were not optimal just good for its time and the meta was far from figured out at this stage.
It also took them a little time to learn how to deal with the Protoss DeathBalls generally just because of lack of game understanding at the time, a lot of nerfs to protoss were actually uncalled for , it's just that the Zerg and Terran cries were pretty loud back then and still is.
So the more the meta settled and the more SC2 was figured out Protoss were becoming noticeably weaker a long the years and many of its strong playstyles would get nerfed pretty quickly as the Pro complaints were just overwhelming and the army of fans that followed players like Maru and your Dark and Rogue etc would just reinforce this false impression of Protoss being "to easy and to strong" Protoss is actually insanely hard to play at the elite level because you have less tools and you can make less mistakes then the other 2 races, people fail to understand this fact.
Protoss did find many playstyles over the years that "looked broken" but instead of having Terran and Zerg adapt they just did quick nerfs to Protoss, you can check the patch history and look at Tournament results its actually absurd.
Personally I believe herO is the best SC2 player we have at the moment but he cannot win because he plays Protoss. If the game was balanced I believe herO would absolutely destroy his competition. I don't think anyone comes even remotely close to herO in overall skill and ability What are you basing that on? I think he’s a phenomenal, S-class player but he’s certainly not mechanically better than some of his competition
Ever heard the quote : It's hard to look good when you are losing?
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On November 05 2024 01:49 Drahkn wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2024 21:15 WombaT wrote:On November 03 2024 15:59 Drahkn wrote:
Protoss was relevant early SC2 history because it had many all inns that Zerg and Terran needed time to adapt to, once they knew how to counter it most all inns died at pro level. And in general the game was not figured out so balance was less of a issue at the time because most playstyles were not optimal just good for its time and the meta was far from figured out at this stage.
It also took them a little time to learn how to deal with the Protoss DeathBalls generally just because of lack of game understanding at the time, a lot of nerfs to protoss were actually uncalled for , it's just that the Zerg and Terran cries were pretty loud back then and still is.
So the more the meta settled and the more SC2 was figured out Protoss were becoming noticeably weaker a long the years and many of its strong playstyles would get nerfed pretty quickly as the Pro complaints were just overwhelming and the army of fans that followed players like Maru and your Dark and Rogue etc would just reinforce this false impression of Protoss being "to easy and to strong" Protoss is actually insanely hard to play at the elite level because you have less tools and you can make less mistakes then the other 2 races, people fail to understand this fact.
Protoss did find many playstyles over the years that "looked broken" but instead of having Terran and Zerg adapt they just did quick nerfs to Protoss, you can check the patch history and look at Tournament results its actually absurd.
Personally I believe herO is the best SC2 player we have at the moment but he cannot win because he plays Protoss. If the game was balanced I believe herO would absolutely destroy his competition. I don't think anyone comes even remotely close to herO in overall skill and ability What are you basing that on? I think he’s a phenomenal, S-class player but he’s certainly not mechanically better than some of his competition Ever heard the quote : It's hard to look good when you are losing?
"herO is the best player we have, but his race isn't completly overpowered and because of that he can't win against the actual two best players we have" - this guy, probably.
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I'd like to see you overlay the same data with foreigner and korean lines. It would be pretty dramatic.
Since 2020 we only have four new players who are talented enough to be able to contribute to this data in addition to the players who were already present at that time. Two play zerg, one plays terran, and one plays protoss but not in the tournaments that are used for this graph. In a theoretical world where the game was perfectly balanced how do you suppose these graphs should look since that time period under those circumstances?
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Northern Ireland26616 Posts
On November 05 2024 01:49 Drahkn wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2024 21:15 WombaT wrote:On November 03 2024 15:59 Drahkn wrote:
Protoss was relevant early SC2 history because it had many all inns that Zerg and Terran needed time to adapt to, once they knew how to counter it most all inns died at pro level. And in general the game was not figured out so balance was less of a issue at the time because most playstyles were not optimal just good for its time and the meta was far from figured out at this stage.
It also took them a little time to learn how to deal with the Protoss DeathBalls generally just because of lack of game understanding at the time, a lot of nerfs to protoss were actually uncalled for , it's just that the Zerg and Terran cries were pretty loud back then and still is.
So the more the meta settled and the more SC2 was figured out Protoss were becoming noticeably weaker a long the years and many of its strong playstyles would get nerfed pretty quickly as the Pro complaints were just overwhelming and the army of fans that followed players like Maru and your Dark and Rogue etc would just reinforce this false impression of Protoss being "to easy and to strong" Protoss is actually insanely hard to play at the elite level because you have less tools and you can make less mistakes then the other 2 races, people fail to understand this fact.
Protoss did find many playstyles over the years that "looked broken" but instead of having Terran and Zerg adapt they just did quick nerfs to Protoss, you can check the patch history and look at Tournament results its actually absurd.
Personally I believe herO is the best SC2 player we have at the moment but he cannot win because he plays Protoss. If the game was balanced I believe herO would absolutely destroy his competition. I don't think anyone comes even remotely close to herO in overall skill and ability What are you basing that on? I think he’s a phenomenal, S-class player but he’s certainly not mechanically better than some of his competition Ever heard the quote : It's hard to look good when you are losing?
herO frequently makes huge errors, either in execution or tactically that aren’t even forced on him but are just bad errors
It’s part of his charm. He may pull off some incisive attack nobody saw coming and somehow make it work, sometime he’ll suicide.
Any reasonably impartial follower of the game rates herO, he’s got great micro, killer instinct and basically solo revolutionised PvZ to make it quite a fun matchup.
Like, he’s an S-class, championship calibre player isn’t enough though, he has to somehow be so good that nobody ‘comes remotely close to herO in overall skill and ability’?
I just don’t see where the justification is for that particular claim. Does he read a game better and make fewer mistakes than Serral? Is he mechanically as sound as Clem or Maru?
Hell I think he’s got higher highs, I think Trap when he was at the top of the game was the more consistent player with better execution. Perhaps lacks some things herO has, but he was stronger in other areas
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Northern Ireland26616 Posts
On November 05 2024 01:52 Balnazza wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 01:49 Drahkn wrote:On November 03 2024 21:15 WombaT wrote:On November 03 2024 15:59 Drahkn wrote:
Protoss was relevant early SC2 history because it had many all inns that Zerg and Terran needed time to adapt to, once they knew how to counter it most all inns died at pro level. And in general the game was not figured out so balance was less of a issue at the time because most playstyles were not optimal just good for its time and the meta was far from figured out at this stage.
It also took them a little time to learn how to deal with the Protoss DeathBalls generally just because of lack of game understanding at the time, a lot of nerfs to protoss were actually uncalled for , it's just that the Zerg and Terran cries were pretty loud back then and still is.
So the more the meta settled and the more SC2 was figured out Protoss were becoming noticeably weaker a long the years and many of its strong playstyles would get nerfed pretty quickly as the Pro complaints were just overwhelming and the army of fans that followed players like Maru and your Dark and Rogue etc would just reinforce this false impression of Protoss being "to easy and to strong" Protoss is actually insanely hard to play at the elite level because you have less tools and you can make less mistakes then the other 2 races, people fail to understand this fact.
Protoss did find many playstyles over the years that "looked broken" but instead of having Terran and Zerg adapt they just did quick nerfs to Protoss, you can check the patch history and look at Tournament results its actually absurd.
Personally I believe herO is the best SC2 player we have at the moment but he cannot win because he plays Protoss. If the game was balanced I believe herO would absolutely destroy his competition. I don't think anyone comes even remotely close to herO in overall skill and ability What are you basing that on? I think he’s a phenomenal, S-class player but he’s certainly not mechanically better than some of his competition Ever heard the quote : It's hard to look good when you are losing? "herO is the best player we have, but his race isn't completly overpowered and because of that he can't win against the actual two best players we have" - this guy, probably.
herO had a very strong showing in EWC, he only narrowly lost out to Serral in one series, more comprehensively to him in another. Clem stomped him but then also stomped Serral as well. And seemingly everyone for a few weeks after
It’s like people just want to ignore the rest of the bracket in the biggest prize pool tourney of the year where herO beat Solar, Cure twice, Gumiho, Reynor twice…
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I don't wanna say that herO is the best, but I do think he mb hit protoss peak play at ewc. You cannot rly say serral was playing the zerg peak that weekend. for clem you can make that argument, but I personally, don't rly believe that, he's all brawn that's why I'm less excited by him, but he is rly impressive!
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Northern Ireland26616 Posts
On November 05 2024 03:37 ejozl wrote:
I don't wanna say that herO is the best, but I do think he mb hit protoss peak play at ewc. You cannot rly say serral was playing the zerg peak that weekend. for clem you can make that argument, but I personally, don't rly believe that, he's all brawn that's why I'm less excited by him, but he is rly impressive!
Not far off. He beat Maru really convincingly, swept herO once, swept Dark 4-0
Clem just went Super Saiyan, Serral really wasn’t all that far off his best though, which usually sees him ahead of the field.
It’s actually comparatively rare for players to really bring their absolute best set after set, which I guess is why it’s pretty notable when it does happen. There’s usually some kind of nail biting rubber set, some desperate clutch gambit, an opponent throwing a lead or whatever.
Clem and Serral have won tournies and shown some fantastic StarCraft, but even their respective last Kato and EWC runs were another level where they looked nigh-on invincible
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EPT
