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On April 25 2016 12:04 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2016 11:37 gumshoe wrote:On April 25 2016 11:28 LightningStrike wrote:
BTW I was checking Sicklucker and DYH's filters and I think that GB is likely town because idk why the whole scum team decided to bus themselves on GB lol. Koshi is cleared due VCA and his posting been townie I think.Shapelog is cleared due to how DYH was pushing him till Day 2 and his voting on SL into FF. Gum you just a confirmed bias atm but I think it's town on town in you vs GB. So mafia would be in HTS, James, and TT. But I townreading HTS mainly because she actually was pushing the game forward although she was wrong on my alignment till later but also Sicklucker wanted to lynch HTS with me for poor reasons EoD 1 before he swap to Koshi. James been trying to help get together EoD to settle on consolidaion and decided to help me form the wagon DYH which idk why mafia James would decided EoD to bus his teammate. So by PoE it would TT for me which would mean he would of rolled scum 3 times in a row vs me which would suck hard for him. I don't know man, dudes agenda lines up perfectly with dyh's, and gb lied twice ( about associating Koshi and me and about sheeping Damdred ) and they both remarked on how bad a lynch ff was at like the same time and gbs been town reading dyh all game / : Seems like a lot to just be bad luck townie But then again this is coming from me XD so who knows. I still probes wouldn't lynch anyone before gb, just too much on the guy from mah view. And that fucking " hey gumshoe you there? Lol just kidding bro" post, this is all happening right now because of that one fucking post. Ima kill him for it, it's gotta happen, there must be precedent. Dude. I'll just vote you tomorrow because everything you say is convoluted. I can't bear reading your posts. I've never lied a single time. If you still can't understand that the read I had on Koshi wasn't associative, there's nothing I can do.
Scums counter to saying they lied "bro, I didn't lie"
Blood must have blood gb. Blood must have blood
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Okay so this night phase I want everyone to post who is their last scum please. I trying to organize town that's why I want everyone to do it.
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Hey I managed to catchup with this and even what I missed at EoD.
I actually think DYH flipping red makes gum pretty likely to be town. DYH started off the game putting suspicion on gum and that is just super unlikely for mafia to do that. Plus I actually liked his play once he started playing again.
I have a feeling that the last scum was on the DYH wagon, given scums position this game they basically NEED to buy as much towncred as possible to have any hopes of winning this and lynching your other lurker teammate is a good way to do it.
I can see GB being scum, and gum's "case" on him isn't bad, but I'm having a hard time believing it's that easy. I'm vaguely reminded of haunted mansion where so many things pointed towards GB being scum... But it simply wasn't so.
Call me tunneled, lazy, or scum, but my gut is still telling me Fidei is scum. His vote fell on DYH early but I noticed a lot of posts where he was talking about needing to consolidate onto koshi/GB (kinda like he was hoping one of the other wagons would win out). His reaction to HtS calling him possible scum also felt VERY defensive, like he needed to show how that flip makes him town.
I could possibly tinfoil Shape and LS as mafia here but it seems pretty unlikely.
I may do some actual work looking into stuff tonight, but don't get your hopes up. I'm sure mafia have no interest in NKing me and my day tomorrow is pretty busy again.
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Woke up a bit early so I'm gunna read through Fidei's filter and see if my scum read is justified or just me being tunneled.
On April 21 2016 22:48 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2016 22:40 LightningStrike wrote:On April 21 2016 22:28 Fidei86 wrote:
[8/40]
Sorry for my inactivity guys. RL excuses. I have some time now for a little while, but chances are I won't be around at EOD / or at least I'll get home just around then.
@LS are you really saying that the only reason you're scum reading HTS is because she's pushing you and because you consider yourself an easy target? What about the other people who are pushing you (Koshi, for example)? Koshi isn't really pushing me as hard as HTS, HTS knows I a easy target to pick on if she's scum(which I think she is) she also didn't really give much of a read on FF when she defended him vs Koshi(I don't think she really gave a read still to this point unless I missing it). [11/40] Buddy, I'm starting to think that the universe is playing a cruel joke on me. Every game we play together we're both town (pretty much). Every game I am utterly convinced that you are scum, and you never are. But this is so bad. I have argued in previous games that people were pushing you questionably because you are an easy lynch. But in this game you've actually made points and arguments and generally playing a lot better than you have before. Nobody else (other than me) has accused you of being an easy lynch. And HTS' read on FF? Yeah, Koshi's point was fine. HTS elaborated a lot on a null read. But lots of people don't have reads on lots of people. Fuck, I barely have reads on anyone (and I'm town), but you haven't called me out on it. Are you saying there's an association between FF and HTS? The thing is, I don't think you're dumb enough as mafia to get into a shitfight with HTS this early on. You *know* she's probably a top 5 player on the site, and she always catches you. Unless you're being smart and trying to throw her radar off by going on the offensive. Ugh. Can people start saying who they plan to vote for? Right now I could lynch SL (inactivity), gumshoe or GB. I don't have the town feels about anyone in particular, but I can't see myself voting for either Koshi or HTS, if only because they've been active and coherent, and voting particularly active people off when my reads are as weak as they are seems dumb.
Noting this post due to it being the first time Fidei mentions SL in his filter. This was well before any wagon on SL started so he should get some town points from it, but here is why I feel it's a bit odd.
On April 21 2016 06:24 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2016 05:09 Tictock wrote:Right now I wouldn't be opposed to lynching any of these people for varying reasons. 4. Shapelog 6. Fidei86 7. DoYouHas 8. Tumblewood 9. GlowingBear 11. LightningStrike So whoever is town in this list if you could pick it up a little... ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ERxkPzh.jpg) The reason why I really really don't like this post is that it seems to be something of a "here is who isn't saying much" list, except that it doesn't include SL, who has said one thing so far? (Maybe two?) Unless there are good reasons for all these names that aren't to do with inactivity, and which will be explained later I guess. [6/40]
Here Fidei is both calling me out for having a list that is more or less inactive/underwhelming people, and he seems to have the opinion here that lynching for inactivity isn't a good reason.
I can understand why he called me out for leaving SL off that list, but it's weird to me that he goes from calling my list bad for only being focused on inactive people to scumreading SL for being inactive. The tinfoil-loving side of me thinks Fidei pointed out me leaving SL off my list and puttin him in his own scum list (for the same reason he didn't like my list) shows TMI about SL's alignment.
Not sure this is terribly strong though. Fidei dropped his vote on Gum and was afk EoD1 so there isn't much info to gain on him from those shennanies.
On April 22 2016 09:34 Fidei86 wrote:
Drunk James says its HTS / TT / Damdred. But this is definitely one of the weirdest games I've ever been in.
If I'm vigi tonight I shoot LS though. Dude doesn't string a sentence together for four games in a row and is town. He posts a WOT tonight and nobody bats an eye.
Having reread some of his earlier posts about me I can understand why Fidei has a scumread on me, the HtS read feels like it's pretty unfounded though and is more a "fear" read (she COULD be scum...).
A nit-picky point here is also why Fidei is suggesting a Vig shot on LS here. I don't recall him having a strong opinion on LS before and it's odd he doesn't want vig to shoot any of his scumreads (supposidly SL would still be a scumread on Fidei's here and the same logic he is applying to LS here should also apply to SL).
Granted this is a "drunk" post but I really have no clue why Fidei is suggesting Damdred is scum here, especially when he had just agreed with Damdred over this post.
On April 22 2016 09:29 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2016 07:27 Damdred wrote:
And Tt doesn't want to consolidate anywhere just waste his vote so anti town This
Stuff like this is why I started scum reading Fidei yesturday.
On April 23 2016 07:07 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2016 07:06 Tictock wrote:On April 22 2016 07:03 sicklucker wrote:
oh votings today I thought it was tormorow? why am I being lynched I gotta ask I think at this point the onus is on you to tell us why we shouldn't lynch you. As in, you really haven't done much at all this game. TT is scum, I think. This post is beyond Derp. I'm reading on a train with spotty reception so may not be able to post. If I die I strongly suggest you lynch TT. But if Dani doesn't die by day 3, it's probably her.
No explanation as to why this post makes him think I'm scum (this was even still before SL flipped btw) and this "if Dani isn't dead tomorrow we lynch her" is just super weak and unfounded.
Honestly I just feel like the scumreads Fidei has on me and to a bigger extent HtS are extremely lazy and haphazard.
On April 23 2016 08:05 Fidei86 wrote:
SL's filter goes very bizarrely with HTS being scum.
Stuff like that, he provides no evidence why he thinks this, just throws it out there.
On April 23 2016 23:33 Fidei86 wrote:
Having read back through the filters, I've sort of talked myself back round on HTS and TT. There is a lot lot of suspicious stuff in their filters, but nobody else seems to see the link / soft defending I see, and I may just be paranoid. Both have had some pretty good analysis since the D2 flip. And as I said before, SL went after HTS pretty hard in circumstances where it was more than possible she might actually become a target.
As I said before, if Dani makes it to D4ish, I'm going to get the mega tin foil out. But for now, I'm okay with her as town.
TW is town obviously. I'm pretty sold on LS as town, actually.
The issue I have now is that all of Shape, GB and DYH have been particularly underwhelming. I'd put shape at the higher end of that, but DYH and GB have been borderline useless. I think looking carefully at their filters, which I'll do now, is likely to yield dividends in terms of solving this game.
(Yes, I accept I just flipped on my two top scum reads, was wrong on Damdred and SL and have also been very questionable this game. But I know I'm town, so there).
Just kinda funny he says "talked myself back round to HtS and TT" when he has been pushing us as scum pretty much all game with no signs of thinking otherwise... Especially when he talks about how SL went after her in circumstances that don't make much sense for scum to bus in the same paragraph.
This post is also, I think, the first time Fidei brings up DYH, this was pretty early in the day.
The issue I have now is that all of Shape, GB and DYH have been particularly underwhelming. I'd put shape at the higher end of that, but DYH and GB have been borderline useless. I think looking carefully at their filters, which I'll do now, is likely to yield dividends in terms of solving this game.
His next post about DYH?
On April 24 2016 00:33 Fidei86 wrote:
@DYH what's going on in your personal life bro? Busy at work? New girlfriend with legs that go all the way down?
His next post on GB?
On April 24 2016 00:41 Fidei86 wrote:
I want to believe GB is town, but he has been so low energy, and his list post was so nit-picky, I cannot rule him out.
The main thing I want from GB is to get over losing Damdred, his only strong read, and tell the rest of us what he's thinking.
Really doesn't look like he tried to make a read on DYH at all. Lets look at how Fidei's read on DYH evolves over the rest of D2.
+ Show Spoiler [A bunch of posts] +On April 24 2016 00:44 Fidei86 wrote:
Just had a thought: all the people TRing me for garbage meta reasons (DYH, Dani, TT) are probably all town. Because I think my play in this game has been pretty damn awful so far, and any of them could have easily pushed me as a mislynch. On April 25 2016 05:51 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2016 05:45 Half the Sky wrote:19/40 On April 25 2016 05:15 DoYouHas wrote:
@HtS - Why don't you agree with me on Fid. What are you seeing in his play that is scummy that I am not? The only mark I have against him is that he drops off hard as scum and he hasn't posted much recently. I was trying to figure out his general direction on who he's trying to lynch, besides his dropping off, I'm not clear on whether he's waiting to pick up on a lynch like SL or what....beginning of day 2, his approaches were all over the shop. If you look at page 2 of his filter he doesn't have a clear direction which makes me question whether he's a low activity mafia. Now I see he's trying to figure the game out but at the time I wasn't clear. On the other hand, you also have Shapelog who hasn't posted hardly dick all this cycle either. Do we think Shape's voting exhonerates him? If he were scum, if he'd managed to be on a wagon on scum that then got overtaken by a town wagon, I don't see why you'd then flip onto a town wagon at the last moment. That's just way too much weird play to make sense from a scum perspective. Unfortunately, that also means that DYH's play makes a lot more sense. So I'm at Town: LS, Shape, TW Confused about their voting right now: Koshi, gumshoe No particular reason to lynch: DYH Not scum as not pushing me???: HTS, TT ??? GB On April 25 2016 06:35 Fidei86 wrote:
Why do you think it's DYH? He can't be accused of flooding the thread, but the thing I was really concerned about (his flip on Shape) actually makes a bunch of sense considering Shape's voting. On April 25 2016 06:57 Fidei86 wrote:
Dani, how can Shape be mafia. What mafia gets onto a bussing wagon, then stays on it until AFTER another wagon has formed and is hitting town, to get onto the ML. That just makes no sense to me.
DYH though, I could dig. I'm going to re-read his filter again. Note: This time there was some follow-through from Fidei looking at DYH On April 25 2016 07:03 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2016 05:24 DoYouHas wrote:
@LS, I would very much like to hear your opinions on Koshi, GB, and HtS. This might be a nitpick thing, but I'm not sure why DYH wanted LS' view on GB, after he hard town read GB like an hour before. On April 25 2016 07:10 Fidei86 wrote:
Fuck it. I'm voting DYH. I'm not sold on the gumshoe / Koshi lynches, and I'm not sure I want to lynch GB either.
##Vote: DYH
Honestly that read is a confused mess. Fidei goes from thinking DYH could be town, to not wanting to lynch, to semi defending DYH, to "I could lynch" again, and finally this fuck it vote onto DYH.
The thing that bugs me here is that his read isn't changing based on stuff he is seeing from DYH, and while he twice says he's going to filter dive DYH he never really does that (sure he brought out one quote the 2nd time but he's hardly trying to conclude anything there).
Now that I'm at the point where Fidei puts his vote on DYH, lets look at how he played the rest of EoD.
These are short and I want people to see what I'm talking about here so I'm not spoilering.
On April 25 2016 07:11 Fidei86 wrote:
I'll consolidate onto GB over gumshoe/Koshi though.
On April 25 2016 07:13 Fidei86 wrote:
Shape please vote ASAP so we can narrow this shit down.
On April 25 2016 07:16 Fidei86 wrote:
SHAAAAPPPEEE BROOOO you gotta vote in the next five minutes or so so we can have a sensible discussion about consolidating.
On April 25 2016 07:22 Fidei86 wrote:
Can people please get their shit together and vote now. If nobody else is switching I need to decide which of GB / gum / Koshi to lynch.
On April 25 2016 07:24 Fidei86 wrote:
If it was GB I actually think he'd fakeclaim here. The last time he was mafia in a game I was in he did. The last couple of times he's been town, he hasn't claimed.
Okay, so that's a dumb reason to TR someone, but it just makes me even keener to lynch outside of those three.
On April 25 2016 07:28 Fidei86 wrote:This town is allergic to consolidating 
So after putting his vote on DYH, these are the rest of Fidei's posts EoD. Notice what I was saying?
He's talking a lot about consolidating but he keeps talking about people OTHER than DYH who he is voting.
Also note the last post there... here was the vote count at that time (or slightly before actually).
On April 25 2016 07:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Day 2: DoYouHas (4) - LightningStrike, Fidei86, Koshi, Shapelog GlowingBear (2) - Koshi, gumshoe, Half the Sky gumshoe (2) - Tictock, gumshoe, Tumblewood, GlowingBear, Half The Sky, Koshi, KoshiKoshi (2) - GlowingBear, DoYouHas, GlowingBear Shapelog (0) - KoshiTumblewood (0) - Half the Sky, Koshi, Tictock, gumshoeAt the current vote, DoYouHas is slated to be lynched.
until deadline.
Why is he upset that people aren't consolidating when people have been steadily joining the DYH wagon?
That last bit is why I found this a little overblown.
On April 25 2016 08:02 Fidei86 wrote:Dani. Are you actually serious right now. How on earth can it be me. I was the one saying "hey, we could def lynch DYH here" and then I voted him second, when GB had three votes. I could have easily gone on GB after clearing gum and Koshi. And also, I am basically universally townread (or at least, nobody seems to have me on their scum list apart from TT). In what universe do I as mafia enter the thread, call the two leading wagons (gum / Koshi) bad, then REFUSE to get onto the GB wagon WHEN IT WAS LEADING BY MILES and bus the GF. ARE YOU ACTUALLY F'ING SERIOUS WITH ME RIGHT NOW. The only reason you're IN ANY WAY thinking it could be be is to keep the lynch pool wider than it might be. Which I guess is a good reason not to move you off the top of my lynch list 
Looking at the posts at EoD I think it's fairly clear that Fidei was not actually ruling out any of GB/Koshi/Gum and in some ways was pushing them (very weakly) while his vote was on DYH.
Other than that there is nothing actually wrong with what Fidei is saying here, and tbh if I am wrong on Fidei it's because of this post.
On April 25 2016 07:24 Fidei86 wrote:
If it was GB I actually think he'd fakeclaim here. The last time he was mafia in a game I was in he did. The last couple of times he's been town, he hasn't claimed.
Okay, so that's a dumb reason to TR someone, but it just makes me even keener to lynch outside of those three.
This is the only post from Fidei which is (though indirectly) actually suggesting that people should move to DYH by giving a reason to TR GB who was looking like the only other viable wagon. I will note though that this came at ~6 min before the lynch happened and it was looking like DYH was the lynch.
If I get time I'll look over SL and DYH's filters, but given their low activity I'm not sure I will find much to either tie or distance Fidei from this scumteam.
The TLDR here is don't give Fidei a pass because he voted 2nd on DYH, he really wasn't pushing that lynch and multiple times avoided giving a read on DYH. Even when he DID put his vote down for DYH it doesn't really show much of a read on him.
On April 25 2016 07:10 Fidei86 wrote:
Fuck it. I'm voting DYH. I'm not sold on the gumshoe / Koshi lynches, and I'm not sure I want to lynch GB either.
##Vote: DYH
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On April 25 2016 07:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Final Votecount - Day 2: DoYouHas (5) - LightningStrike, Fidei86, Koshi, Shapelog, TicTock GlowingBear (2) - Koshi, gumshoe, Half the Sky gumshoe (1) - Tictock, gumshoe, Tumblewood, GlowingBear, Half The Sky, Koshi, KoshiKoshi (2) - GlowingBear, DoYouHas, GlowingBear Shapelog (0) - KoshiTumblewood (0) - Half the Sky, Koshi, Tictock, gumshoeDoYouHas is slated to be lynched.
It's interesting that DYH and GB were voting together here. If they are both scum this is a pretty weak attempt to stay alive by voting together on a wagon that is probably never going to happen.
Idk it's super weak, especially since the lynch was between GB and DYH, but I wouldn't expect scum to be voting together like this. I'd expect a scum!GB to make the swap to DYH to at least pickup whatever towncred he could, but honestly that's pretty WIFOM.
Still, this plus the stuff between GB and SL is enough to make me prefer a Fidei lynch tomorrow over GB.
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So your scum is James then TT. Noted.
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Hi all. This is my last post of the cycle.
Firstly, TT.
If you think I am mafia, you have to believe that:
1. I came into the thread seeing wagons on two townies (gum and Koshi), and then refused to get on either, when there were PLENTY of reasons I could have adopted. Gum had basically asked to be lynched. GB made a ton of posts against Koshi. Instead, I used reasoning that you yourself used later (why would scum thread enter and call other leading wagon bad?) to say I didn't want on either wagon.
2. Then, having thrown plenty of shade on GB in the past, I also didn't get on that wagon either. At one point it had three votes. A fourth would have likely been enough to secure the vote.
3. With only LS, who with all due respect to him, has very little thread pull, on DYH, I get on the wagon, with plenty of other townies (eg HTS) having been skeptical of DYH (making the risk of an accidental wagon pretty high). I would also have known that all three other wagons were town, with townies looking for another wagon to keep themselves alive.
4. I get onto DYH despite him being the GODFATHER, which would leave me at the mercy of a possible redcheck end game. Unless you think Artanis included a godfather but no cop .... Which could happen. He is Dutch after all.
Yes, at the end I wanted to consolidate. Maybe if you'd been here the whole time you would have noted that at one point our vote was 3,2,2,2. That is horrible for town. We had to consolidate, and everyone else seemed pretty set on their votes - hell GB and DYH had announced they'd gone AFK. I wasn't sure on the DYH lynch, nobody really was. Not even LS. Fuck, if I WAS bussing wouldn't I have begged everyone to get onto the wagon?
There is literally no way I am Mafia in this game. Not with a probable cop out there. I don't want to rub it in, but if you are town you should feel bad for even thinking it.
Town have got two mislynches to play with. The good thing is that there are only four realistic candidates.
--------
TOWN CIRCLE
LS is never Mafia in this game. He pushed the DYH lynch first, when it was in no way necessary. Nobody really wanted this lynch and it would NOT have happened if he hadn't voted for it. A bus just makes much too little sense, especially for someone like LS who I feel would prioritise the team.
Tumble has claimed vig when a Mafia was shot, with no CC and convincing breadcrumbing. He is basically confirmed town.
Koshi hammered DYH and he didn't have to. He has to go to the bottom of the pile, and is most likely town. Also, if he's scum I don't understand why he didn't just waive through the gum lynch. That was a thing he could have done.
I see no world in which Shape is Mafia. His voting EOD1 is totally at odds with a sensible Mafia strategy. He's worth reading again, but he'a very likely town.
I'm like town Jesus.
MAFIA
There are four people outside the town circle. HTS, TT, gumshoe and GB. I don't think VCA helps much here. Getting on the wagon late or not at all says very little.
In my view town should lynch in the following order:
HTS -- TT -- GB -- gumshoe.
Dani is a really good Mafia player. In games I've played with her has town, she has crushed it. In this game, she hasn't been right about anything. At EOD2 she kept saying she was considering DYH, but at the same time she ended up on GB - someone she didn't really ever develop a read on. Also for someone who has posted a lot of VCA, and who was here at EOD, it's bizarre she had me as a higher likelihood of Mafia over TT. There might be reasons why she's playing not so well this game. But my view is that the most likely reason is that she's Mafia.
TT - I've not been impressed or unimpressed. He's made some okay points, but he's made some pretty critical fuck ups (leaving SL off his list of inactives was pretty damning). Also doing a super long filter dive of ME, when each of GB, gum and HTS are THOROUGHLY indicted by an objective view of EOD2 is bizarre. Like, that time could have been used to try and figure out which of the people who could actually be scum in this game are. Instead it just looks like scum trying to keep the lynch pool wider than it should be.
GB - I really got the sense towards EOD2 that Gb was a bad lynch. I've seen him mislynched a ton, and the best I can say is that I've seen him lynched as Mafia once and he fake claimed. I think he does the same thing here as Mafia. Probably. But he needs a re-read as well.
Gumshoe - don't ask town to kill you plz, if you are town. But I'm happy enough with my reasoning that scum gumshoe doesn't thread enter and call the Koshi mislynch wagon dumpster and try and get a third wagon going on another townie.
Given that at least one townie (one of HTS/TT) is scumming me a little bit, I probably won't be the target this evening. But if I do die, lynch HTS--TT--GB in that order. If we have a cop, you should check into those as well. Don't over complicate it people.
Peace. Shout out to my boy Rels in the obs thread.
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4. I get onto DYH despite him being the GODFATHER, which would leave me at the mercy of a possible redcheck end game. Unless you think Artanis included a godfather but no cop .... Which could happen. He is Dutch after all.
I don't know why everyone always assumes this despite half or more games having a GF but no cop.
Anyways, what are your actual reasons for scumreading HtS Fidei?
Like you've been saying she could be scum all game but have done jack all to try and show why you think she is, or in this case why you want to lynch her first of your PoE scum pool.
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Dani is a really good Mafia player. In games I've played with her has town, she has crushed it. In this game, she hasn't been right about anything. At EOD2 she kept saying she was considering DYH, but at the same time she ended up on GB - someone she didn't really ever develop a read on. Also for someone who has posted a lot of VCA, and who was here at EOD, it's bizarre she had me as a higher likelihood of Mafia over TT. There might be reasons why she's playing not so well this game. But my view is that the most likely reason is that she's Mafia.
Oh I missed this kus you called her by name.
This is pretty meh tbh, and I'm not sure why you have her higher than me on your list when you seem to have more points on me. Also she corrected herself that she had meant me over you in that post, given that I voted last on DYH and when it didn't matter.
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So GB wants to lynch Gum dunno if that his final scum.
TT is my PoE scum.
James got HTS>TT>GB in order from left to right on who he thinks should be lynched.
TT thinks it's James.
Kinda wish more people would talk while I was at school after my last post :\
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36/40 yes, recounted
(I have been typing for the last hour, bear with me)
FYI I'm going to do and show a bit of deep digging - highly doubt I'm getting NKed, but I have 5 posts to spare putting a few things together so whatever.
I'm going to layer a combination of things - associative reads and then the timing of the votes relative to what happened, since there's a few people saying to disregard VCA for Day 2.
My Town Reads
DYH's reads and abdication of the thread as follows:
Day 1 - strong push and vote on Shapelog, ignored SL, no read on GB or TT
Day 2 - strong push and vote on Koshi, admitted ignorance on Tictock, no position on LS, defence of GB (see below the line break)
On that alone, I would vindicate Shapelog (along for the reasons for his voting Day 1 on sicklucker), I have other filter-based reasons to townread Koshi, but DYH's push on Koshi effectively vindicates him. Other independent reasons to townread LS include end of day 2 and the manner in which he pushed me day 1 (as he really believed what he was doing) and then after that re-evaluated me. It was organic.
Tumbleweed is uncounterclaimed vig.
gumshoe had a few things going against him - votes end of day 1, the self-meta (or martyring as some called it), but posts 586 (the case on GB) was pretty solid along with the point on the manner in which GB dropped his read on SL and then surmised how mafia was one of Koshi/gumshoe/LS. There was little association between SL/DYH/gumshoe, but both DYH and my strongest scum read at present - GB - were pushing Koshi. Two players (Koshi and LS) I am sure are town, and gumshoe at present I'm nearly positive is town.
Fidei
Fidei was dicey at the day 1, but he's probably town. He AFKed (NAI) D1, but voted early enough on DYH that him doing it as RB or vanilla it would be suboptimal. I think he's pieceing the game together in a way that indicates he's town, there was patterns of this day 1/night 1 when he reconsidered me in post 506 as he was catching up. There's nothing further he can really do to engage DYH when the latter had been so AFK other than poke him, which he did.
As mafia he doesn't do jack all and wouldn't be arsed to play this game with what he has outside the game (this is OGI on my part, take it as you will) and he's confirmation biasing me out of fear which is NAI and also the fact I've been wrong on every decision.
(disclaimer - next part is meta)
Also NAI as he has not played with me in some of my worst town games (ie I singlehandedly threw Gaiden for instance, my Carol town game was a disaster only was saved because I was blue, Titanic 7 I pushed townies left right and centre because I didn't know people's metas) or games where I wound up on the wrong side of the lynch despite being town.
However, and this is a BIG however, it's also completely untrue that I didn't have read development on GB, somewhere he forgot to read posts 517, 528, ESPECIALLY 618 (!!!!!!!), 649. Was it disjointed? Yes, and from my filter you should be able to tell that I was focusing on a LOT of people, and a holistic approach to this game. But it sure as hell existed.
His reads on other people and the manner in which he gravitated to DYH indicates he's probably town. If you read page 3 of his filter carefully you should be able to put together that his lynch preference was DYH > GB > GS/Koshi. That should have been obvious from 687/690.
So I think he's town with the exception of day 1 voting and what I stated in bold, but I think these points pale in comparison which what else I've read through his filter combined with what I do know about him and his game in general.
That leaves me with GB and Tictock. And between these two folks, it's GB as the final mafia.
And of these two I'd lynch GB. I mean, I'll doublecheck a few things re: Tictock, but the evidence against GB is quite frankly, overwhelming. The only thing that comes into question is whether he and DYH would push Koshi together but that is WIFOM come to think of it.
However, when I look at the full picture of GB's play, I'm >95% sure that he's the final mafia - I'm looking at both Fidei and LS's reasons for townreading him, and quite frankly both's reasons are REALLY bad, not mafia-driven bad, just suboptimal bad.
GB being mislynched a shittonne does not give any indication for his play now. He fakeclaimed in Firefly yes, but I don't believe he did jack all in Outlaw. Fakeclaims are done for specific reasons when they aim for the objectives needed (to draw a blue, to divert a lynch, etc) and someone fakeclaiming or not does not and should not ever vindicate them. There's a ridiculous amount in GB's filter that indicates several problems including
(1) lack of followup day 1 reads,
(2) lack of engagement (or delayed engagement) with Koshi, he throws the names he does night 1 and I engage him first on Koshi when I discuss my phobias but he doesn't touch him until Koshi calls him on on this day 2.
(3) the dropped read on SL day 1.
(4) softpushing from sicklucker day 1 ("I'd lynch GB a little from his posts....and then selective reasoning on me when I was going to get lynched)
(5) his post highlighting why I was mafia was terrible in that it completely ignored arguments that were already made
(a) saying my posts are convoluted does not make me mafia when I explain them a bazillion times, furthermore that is parroting from Koshi one day later Damdred was confirmation biasing HARD but at least I could tell he was town based on interactions with other townies.
(b) Second it was VERY reasonable and not suspicious to surmise that a low-activity player was mafia, GB basically framed something that was townie (or at worst null) and framed it as mafia agenda. That behaviour itself is mafia driven. Read post 583 again if you don't understand.
(6) Softpushing from GB on DYH (see post 583) - he says DYH makes him uncomfortable, but what does he do about it? Nothing. He doesn't even engage him or change that read when he and DYH both vote Koshi. In post 628 you will see
(7) GB's push on Koshi makes no sense (through post 623). Koshi clearly explained why Shape was underwhelming compared to GB and that was based on the metas he had for both players. He def focused on some people more than others and he did use the argument too scummy to be scum, which was wrong on sicklucker...and he did the same for gumshoe. But it's a read that whilst bad is not exclusively mafia.
I think LS is also wrong on SL pushing GB (his post 757), yes he brought up GB, but he did nothing about it and GB did nothing about SL. I think LS mis-analysed the interactions between the two players - they weren't bussing each other, they were softpushing each other. And that is very mafia indicative. That is where my associative reads (and gumshoe's I think to an extent) are coming from.
So yes GlowingBear is the final scum, and that's my answer.
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37/40
DYH associative reads with other people....and re-checking the validity of VCA day 2 and a few things on Tictock.
On April 25 2016 05:49 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2016 05:45 Half the Sky wrote:19/40 On April 25 2016 05:15 DoYouHas wrote:
@HtS - Why don't you agree with me on Fid. What are you seeing in his play that is scummy that I am not? The only mark I have against him is that he drops off hard as scum and he hasn't posted much recently. I was trying to figure out his general direction on who he's trying to lynch, besides his dropping off, I'm not clear on whether he's waiting to pick up on a lynch like SL or what....beginning of day 2, his approaches were all over the shop. If you look at page 2 of his filter he doesn't have a clear direction which makes me question whether he's a low activity mafia. Now I see he's trying to figure the game out but at the time I wasn't clear. On the other hand, you also have Shapelog who hasn't posted hardly dick all this cycle either. This is what is eating at me. I was convinced Shape was scum. The sl flip made that less likely. I don't want to drop him from my suspect list, especially since he hasn't said a word for a while, but I don't see him being scum with Koshi.
On April 25 2016 06:06 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2016 05:56 Half the Sky wrote:20/40 On April 25 2016 05:49 DoYouHas wrote:On April 25 2016 05:45 Half the Sky wrote:19/40 On April 25 2016 05:15 DoYouHas wrote:
@HtS - Why don't you agree with me on Fid. What are you seeing in his play that is scummy that I am not? The only mark I have against him is that he drops off hard as scum and he hasn't posted much recently. I was trying to figure out his general direction on who he's trying to lynch, besides his dropping off, I'm not clear on whether he's waiting to pick up on a lynch like SL or what....beginning of day 2, his approaches were all over the shop. If you look at page 2 of his filter he doesn't have a clear direction which makes me question whether he's a low activity mafia. Now I see he's trying to figure the game out but at the time I wasn't clear. On the other hand, you also have Shapelog who hasn't posted hardly dick all this cycle either. This is what is eating at me. I was convinced Shape was scum. The sl flip made that less likely. I don't want to drop him from my suspect list, especially since he hasn't said a word for a while, but I don't see him being scum with Koshi. Lord this is a good point. I might have to start using a spreadsheet at this rate. The main thing that troubles me about you tbh is you have said a lot about Shape and Koshi (and exclusively Shape most of the game), but little on some of the others save that one list post. If you are town and you are wrong on either one of them, you are effectively giving Tictock, GB, even LS (from your latest perspective) a free pass. If you are mafia, you are doing a good job of just staying out of suspicion and keeping attention off the right people. I have been giving TT a free pass unfortunately. He just hasn't drawn my attention much. LS confuses me at the moment, which is why I asked him those questions. He isn't comfortable with a gum lynch, he leans town on GB, he leans town on Koshi, he leans town on you. There is a lack of evolving reads around some of the most polarizing players in the game ATM. I just think you are wrong on GB, though I'm giving your and gum's points a harder look to see if I can justify my read against them.
On April 25 2016 06:52 DoYouHas wrote:
Guys, I got an invite to play some league with friends I haven't talked to in a long time. I'm off through deadline. Lynch Koshi.
So roughly 38m to End of Day or 2254, DYH lurked the thread (he GGed right after the lynch).
Looking at vote timings after 2300:
On April 25 2016 07:02 LightningStrike wrote:
##Vote: DoYouHas
On April 25 2016 07:03 Half the Sky wrote:
##unvote
##vote GlowingBear
On April 25 2016 07:11 Fidei86 wrote:
##Vote: DYH
On April 25 2016 07:24 Shapelog wrote:
##Vote: DYH
On April 25 2016 07:28 Tictock wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote DYH
On April 25 2016 07:29 gumshoe wrote:
##unvote
##vote dyh
So yep, Tictock is actually right here. DYH bailed from the thread, could have told his scumbuddy to do whatever. So from his POV, the point on Fidei is valid, because all the votes came after, no one on the wagon gets a pass. I don't think Fidei is scum, but it's clearer to me where he's coming from.
On the other hand it's also possible that the entire wagon on DYH could very well be town, with DYH out of the thread, he's effectively relinquished control and no one else was voting Koshi.
We very well could have had a scumteam that really was low-activity and not so influential in the thread.
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So you believe both Mafia wasted their votes day1 HTS?
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38/40
On April 26 2016 06:57 GlowingBear wrote:
So you believe both Mafia wasted their votes day1 HTS?
If town were scumreading each other, any mafia present is going to let things go, it's quite possible, hell, just look at the votes, look at the tunnels some of the townies (my townreads now) had on each other. LS and I tunneled each other for a cycle and a half.
Damdred and Koshi were/are wrong on me....Damdred in particular proved himself three times he cannot or did not read the thread, for a player of his calibre, the way he dealt with me was utterly diabolical this game when others saw the opposite for different reasons.
He could have easily gotten me mislynched with the influence he and Koshi had on the thread. FF also misread me based on tone, not taking into account why I was posting differently.
Why interfere with that (aside from SL also pushing it) and especially when there was scant time (at least with DYH, knowing what I know of his gameplay) for scum to push anything else. Where's the motivation to push the lynch off a townie when town are already shooting themselves in the foot one way or another?
Tictock was spot on with the point that sicklucker did just enough to get the lynch off him and basically did jack all after that.
That all said, voting Day 1 aside, there's no way you shouldn't be getting lynched tomorrow, as said before the evidence otherwise is quite overwhelming.
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This posts costs me 2 post in the next cycle.
Top Scum 99%:
Fidei ((just follow the case from TT and the Damdred nk + he made the most scummy posts. I might make a collection after night. The guy isn't reading the thread and made some really questionable observations.))
Stop hard trying like a madman scum:
HTS
very very very very maybe scum (I disagree with all the townreads on him, vote on sl doesn't matter, pressure from DYH+sl are his salvation):
Shape
very very very very very maybe scum:
GB, gumshoe, TT (they are listed in the order I would currently lynch them. GB is first out of spite) ( the list should change with activity in future days)
town puppy never lynch = thx:
LS
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On April 26 2016 06:24 LightningStrike wrote:
So GB wants to lynch Gum dunno if that his final scum.
TT is my PoE scum.
James got HTS>TT>GB in order from left to right on who he thinks should be lynched.
TT thinks it's James.
Kinda wish more people would talk while I was at school after my last post :\
HTS scum is GB probably TT if she wrong.
Koshi thinks it's James.
Everything is now in this post.
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Last will:
Look into TT and GB but I think it's TT over GB.
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Day 3![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/1fDrYl3.gif)
LightningStrike the Vanille Town has been shot!
It is now Day! Day ends in . You must vote in the voting thread here.
All players that haven't exceeded the post count limit have 40 posts once more from this point, with an additional 5 in the last hour of EoD.
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EPT
