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Matchfixing is a very serious offence and accusations of matchfixing should not be made lightly. Please avoid making accusations against specific individuals unless you have substantial proof, or until further information is released. (0620 KST) | ||
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ragax09
5 Posts
On January 21 2015 23:05 The_Red_Viper wrote: wait if dark started at 1.6, does this mean san was actually the favorite? No, Dark opened at 1.585 San odds were 2.45 Thats ~63% for Dark and ~40% San win probability | ||
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rogscorp
Korea (South)13 Posts
http://esports.dailygame.co.kr/view.php?ud=2015012121095029251 (It's in Korean) He said: Today, there was a post about San and I got angry. Do not insult a player who is trying hard. Cheer up, San. | ||
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
On January 21 2015 23:08 Hider wrote: It means that if you invest USD 100 on Dark, you get back USD 160, which is equal to a net profit of USD 60. Thus, he needs to win more than 50% of the time for you to break even on the investment (so Dark is the favourite). Yeah that makes sense, thx | ||
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TheCzarOfAll
United States170 Posts
On January 21 2015 23:04 sixfour wrote: - san was actually injured/playing well below par, and insiders used said information to bet at a line they know to be hugely off. this is certainly possible, although if he is playing that badly to make some of the mistakes that he supposedly made in the game (i haven't watched it, nor have played in the past couple of years to identify how bad he supposedly was), one has to question why he was even in the lineup to start with. . Most of that team's players are Taiwanese and probably not in Korea ready to play. Even then, injured San is better than most of them. He didn't play THAT bad and his mistakes were hardly uncharacteristic. If he was throwing, he hid it well. | ||
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Hider
Denmark9336 Posts
On January 21 2015 23:11 TheCzarOfAll wrote: Most of that team's players are Taiwanese and probably not in Korea ready to play. Even then, injured San is better than most of them. He didn't play THAT bad and his mistakes were hardly uncharacteristic. If he was throwing, he hid it well. I think esport isn't like for instance soccer, as it's alot easier to lose a game intentionally to a great player like Dark here. To beat Dark, you probably gotta play your A-game, and therefore, in order to lose you just need to play slightly worse in some situations than you normally would. Thus, it's not surprising that there isn't any clear evidence from watching the game that he lost it intentionally. Even then, there were moments where his play looked off, but ofc that could just be natural mistakes. Regardless, I don't think the game itself should be the focus in an investigation. | ||
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pichoo
Australia123 Posts
I think salaries today are way less than $40K for the average PL player. Parting was offered that salary at the time when it wasn't known how big Sc2 would be in Korea (after Kespa switched over). With some korean players switching to unknown European teams, it just indicates that salaries are really low for PL players today. Moreover, his past tournament earnings aren't particularly relevant giving that you need to look at future earnings instead. Since the tournament scene is declining, it's extremely unlikely that he will earn anywhere close to that amount in the future There are already many reports Proleague / Kespa players get the best salaries in sc2 world. In fact when Parting left SKT, it was by his own decision and he mentioned in an interview saying money isn't everything. Which means he's willing to take a pay-cut to move to a less strict team. Polt earned $66,074 in prize tournaments (2014) slightly less than San. In recent interview, he also mentioned that he earns 6 figures playing video games. Now Polt is on a foreign team, not even in Kespa team. Do your calculation. SC2 declining? Are you talking about 2013 maybe? Look at the number of tournaments we have this year in Korea and outside. Declining is an old argument. Wait are you actually implying that a well-respected company would cancel a bet for marketing purposes in an industry which is declining (Sc2) with the outcome being that a lot of people end up perceivining Pinnacle is shady. Nice conspirary you got there. If Pinnacle wanted to gain more esport-users, it would make more sense to "scam" the CS GO, LOL or Dota market instead since there are potentital users to benefit from. Of course it's only speculation but pretty much yes, however the outcome is they get a lot more new customers from publicity while nobody knows that they set-up the whole thing. SC2 being a 1v1 game is much easier to be accused as 'fixed' than a team game like the rest, since it only involves 2 players. A lot of conspiracy has proven to be true in the banking and financial world. And we are talking about 'well-respected' BIG banks here. It's all dirty business much like this one. | ||
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Hider
Denmark9336 Posts
Which means he's willing to take a pay-cut to move to a less strict team. Yes I know that. But that doesn't proove anything. Maybe he was offered USD 25,000/year to stay and USD 15,000 in yoe flash wolves. When people like True, Fantasy, Soulkey leaves Kespa, you should take that as a sign that salaries aren't very high). SC2 declining? Are you talking about 2013 maybe? Look at the number of tournaments we have this year in Korea and outside. Declining is an old argument. Wait, are you disputing that viewernumbers of Sc2 are declining? Polt earned $66,074 in prize tournaments (2014) slightly less than San. In recent interview, he also mentioned that he earns 6 figures playing video games. Now Polt is on a foreign team, not even in Kespa team. Do your calculation. Yes, I also read that article, but how is that even relevant in determining Sans expected future income? A lot of conspiracy has proven to be true in the banking and financial world. And we are talking about 'well-respected' BIG banks here. It's all dirty business much like this one. Give me a source to a story where a big company has been caught with fraud in a situation where the potential revenue stream was very small relative to its size + even if it "succeeded" there would be at least two downsides (in this situation the downsides are the following: (a) Pinnacle is still getting attacked by people like you which isn't good for its reputation and (b) indicating that the market is being manipulated isn't benefical for the future of esports-betting). SC2 being a 1v1 game is much easier to be accused as 'fixed' than a team game like the rest, since it only involves 2 players. Doesn't really make sense. We actually have evidence public of irregular betting behaviour with odds going from 1.8 to 1.2. Are you saying that Pinnaclesport is also making that up, or are you saying that these types of odds typically go back and fourth that much, but Pinnacle doesn't do anything with it when it's in Dota/LOL/CS or othe sports, but only in Sc2? | ||
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Subversive
Australia2229 Posts
On January 21 2015 22:16 Kihshra wrote: You have no idea what you're talking about and yet you keep posting, and it gets really annoying. As it was stated like a million times already, Pinnacle has nothing to gain by doing this. Nothing. And before answering, please reread the posts you obviously haven't read about Pinnacle, because they all explain why you're wrong. So please, stop spreading bullshit. Anyway, Pinnacle never said anything about the game that was played, just about the bets that were made, so there's no reason whatsoever to doubt San (or Dark, or one's team's coach). And as far as we know, we just know that the betting pattern was fishy, like really fishy, which indicates nothing about the game. So stop doubting the players as we have zero intell about what was really going on, and just wait instead of spreading nonsense (be it about the players or about Pinnacle). Whatever dude. I don't abuse people in my posts, perhaps you should try the same. Every person you don't agree with isn't posting bullshit. Learn to play nice. | ||
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Hider
Denmark9336 Posts
Whatever dude. I don't abuse people in my posts, perhaps you should try the same. Every person you don't agree with isn't posting bullshit. Learn to play nice. Your talking bullshit because you didn't risk any money in this case. Pinnaclesport refundeded all money regardless of outcome. Whatever dude. I don't abuse people in my posts, perhaps you should try the same. Every person you don't agree with isn't posting bullshit. Learn to play nice. Look I am pretty sure that when you make an account on Pinnaclesports, the terms of conditions are that they can cancel a bet when there is strong suspicions of match fixing/cheat. This was the case here, and thus they have done nothing wrong. | ||
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Subversive
Australia2229 Posts
On January 21 2015 23:47 Hider wrote: Your talking bullshit because you didn't risk any money in this case. Pinnaclesport refundeded all money regardless of outcome. Look I am pretty sure that when you make an account on Pinnaclesports, the terms of conditions are that they can cancel a bet when there is strong suspicions of match fixing/cheat. This was the case here, and thus they have done nothing wrong. You risk the money because you assume the bet is valid when you make it. If the match goes against you - everyone who bet on San, then it's a net gain. And a loss for everyone who bet on Dark. People keep saying the company is massive, and that these are tiny amounts for Pinnacle. If that were true, they could pay up. As for what you wrote after, if that's true, cool. Then it's above board. What I wrote above is completely reasonable conjecture. | ||
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BuddhaMonk
781 Posts
On January 21 2015 23:32 Hider wrote: Yes I know that. But that doesn't proove anything. Maybe he was offered USD 25,000/year to stay and USD 15,000 in yoe flash wolves. When people like True, Fantasy, Soulkey leaves Kespa, you should take that as a sign that salaries aren't very high). Wait, are you disputing that viewernumbers of Sc2 are declining? Yes, I also read that article, but how is that even relevant in determining Sans expected future income? Give me a source to a story where a big company has been caught with fraud in a situation where the potential revenue stream was very small relative to its size + even if it "succeeded" there would be at least two downsides (in this situation the downsides are the following: (a) Pinnacle is still getting attacked by people like you which isn't good for its reputation and (b) indicating that the market is being manipulated isn't benefical for the future of esports-betting). Doesn't really make sense. We actually have evidence public of irregular betting behaviour with odds going from 1.8 to 1.2. Are you saying that Pinnaclesport is also making that up, or are you saying that these types of odds typically go back and fourth that much, but Pinnacle doesn't do anything with it when it's in Dota/LOL/CS or othe sports, but only in Sc2? In Korea, popularity is mostly determined by how much SC2 gets put on prime-time TV - not Twitch viewer numbers. In 2014, there was more SC2 on TV in Korea than in 2013. | ||
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Hider
Denmark9336 Posts
In Korea, popularity is mostly determined by how much SC2 gets put on prime-time TV - not Twitch viewer numbers. 3 things (1) I am not looking at Korea. What you have to look at is the target audience of those who bet on Pinnaclesports. I think that's westernes. (2) The quantity of games being shown is't as relevant. Instead, it's the amount of potential people that bets on esports which matters in this context. (3) The growth rate from 2014 to 2013 is not interesting. It's the future growth-rate that is relevant. I don't see how you can make a case for the long-term growth rate of Sc2. Regardless, I would also like to see as ource for your claim. | ||
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ragax09
5 Posts
On January 21 2015 23:53 Subversive wrote: You risk the money because you assume the bet is valid when you make it. If the match goes against you - everyone who bet on San, then it's a net gain. And a loss for everyone who bet on Dark. People keep saying the company is massive, and that these are tiny amounts for Pinnacle. If that were true, they could pay up. As for what you wrote after, if that's true, cool. Then it's above board. What I wrote above is completely reasonable conjecture. Why should they pay out if a lot of money was placed in fraudulent manner? I wouldnt want that as a customer. Also yes these are tiny amounts, they are taking 180k€ per bet on the superbowl at the moment. | ||
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Subversive
Australia2229 Posts
On January 22 2015 00:04 ragax09 wrote: Why should they pay out if a lot of money was placed in fraudulent manner? I wouldnt want that as a customer. Also yes these are tiny amounts, they are taking 180k€ per bet on the superbowl at the moment. Because a bunch of people didn't bet fraudulently. If they're so suspicious of some of the larger, spammed bets as the odds went haywire, refund those without payment. They could honour the rest. But whatever, if what Hider says is true, in the T&C they don't have to, so it's a moot point. | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
First off i'd like to state I don't know any of the posters in the thread except just_mo. He has nothing to do with Pinnacle Sports as claimed by one poster; he is a poker reporter who sportsbets fairly successfully on a variety of sports. His opinions are his own and so are everyone else's. In any case, this isn't about me personally. This is about Kespa, Pinnacle and San. I'm some random guy who should have no role in this from here on out. Anyway, time to say what I came here to say. First i'd like to state I have no reason to believe if anything happened that Dark would be involved in any way as there would be no reason for him to be and the people suggesting that earlier in the thread are idiots. If anything improper happened, it happened on the end of San or someone he knows. We know match fixing offers happen; Solar reported an offer to throw a nothing game where betting limits were WAY smaller. I hope match fixing or insider info betting didn't happen here but objectively it is a strong possibility. I'm just going to post all of the information I have, a rough timeline, my opinion and then it's up to the proper people who have access to all of the information to make fully informed conclusions (in this case, Pinnacle and Kespa). First off; i'd like to clarify that I am in no way directly accusing San of throwing the game I am just stating that it is a reasonable possibility, along with the possibility that San or someone close to him leaked confidential information (build, injury etc) to bettors but didn't directly throw the game, and finally the possibility that nothing out of the ordinary happened and this is an extremely unlikely series of coincidences, which is the least likely of the three. If a thorough investigation clears San of all wrongdoing I will personally apologies for any role I played in these allegations coming to light (although it would have happened with or without me when Pinnacle released their statement). If it turns out something did happen, I fully expect an apology from anyone who attacked me personally in the thread. I spoke too quickly directly stating San threw the game after Pinnacle refunded bets but before Pinnacle made their statement as I wanted an investigation to occur and until Pinnacle's statement that did not seem like it was going to happen. Let me be clear, I still do think it is very possible than San threw the game or he or someone close to him leaked inside information that he was going to almost certainly lose. This is apparently from the unprecedented anomalies in the betting market that one or more bettors with deep pockets knew San was going to lose substantially more than 80% of the time which is unheard of in a theoretically competitive proleague match. I can't say anything conclusively, this is just my opinion as a random guy. Pinnacle Sports and Kespa are the authorities on what happened here as they have the necessary information between them I did message the kespa twitter account prior to the public messages to the casters on twitter and got no reply so I messaged the english casters who I have great respect for. I am certain that they would want to protect the integrity of esports and they are highly visible figures. It's not their job to comment on this at all, but I wanted to get it out there. I probably didn't handle it in the best possible way and for that i'm sorry, but i'm not sorry that this was brought to the attention of the esports community because the situation is objectively suspicious and as the community we need to ensure there is no corruption going on that affects the integrity of proleague matches. After all, if there is, then what's the point. I probably shouldn't have named San publicly in my twitter post, but Pinnacle did that regardless of my input and nothing I did personally affected the outcome of this in any way. So let's move on to a few things Esports Betting Esports betting is on the rise as the esports scene grows bigger. It will only continue to do so as is the case with any sport that becomes popular. Pinnacle Sports is the main sportsbook that take bets on E-sports. They were the first book to do so and have the highest limits. Opening lines are typically $100 then as the lines sharpen (sharp bettors betting on inaccurate lines) they settle at a point where similar amounts of money come in on each side, and gradually get raised. For this particular match, the limit was $100 when it opened and $1k when Pinnacle took the line down after I sent them an email stating I was concerned by line movement that I believed was statistically and mathematically impossible. Note, I have bet on thousands of esports matches including games where +128 favourtes were bet in to -180 etc and nothing was suspicious about those games because the line movement was logical and not obviously coming from one or very few sources as was the case this time. Pinnacle Sports Pinnacle Sports is the world's largest and most reputable sports book. They would not stake their reputation on making a statement that they believe that San vs Dark was not a fair match and that the market was manipulated unless they were certain this is the case. I am not affiliated with Pinnacle and do not have access to their fraud department's methodology so me speculating is pointless. They do not stand to benefit in any way from cancelled bets. Pinnacle is a book that welcomes winning sportsbettors; and make their profit from charging a 'vig' on both sides of a bet, meaning for an even money bet both players pay 1.92. The line will usually naturally settle on a final 'closing' line which is considered to be around the true price in bettors opinions on a match where it is equally attractive to bet money on either player. They do this by moving the bettine line when money comes in on one player. For example, if two players are 1.92 and a large bet comes in on Player A, Player A's new price is 1.90 and Player B's price is 1.94. This continues until the match begins and a 'true' line is found at the halfway point between A and B's closing betting prices when the game begins. Opening lines can be inaccurate, but money on the 'sharp' side should eventually correct the betting line most of the time. Closing lines should in theory never be HUGELY inaccurate as was the case here. It was further outside the margin of error than any esports line I have ever seen and I monitor lines daily and have done for two years. Line movement history - it is posted in post 199 of this thread http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/sports-betting/esport-betting-1497866/index14.html. I am not the poster of the information but I assume it is accurate. If it is not, someone can correct me but it seems to match my realtime observations. Someone has linked Aligulac already and there has been plenty of discussion. Needless to say Dark at 1.20 will not yield a positive expectation over time even if San is playing poorly. Dark at 1.50 will not yield a positive expectation over time in bo1 series. This is like Innovation being an underdog to Terror, Prime being 1.50 favourites against a full strength Jin Air or as posted earlier ITT Taeja vs some below average foreigner no one has heard of being at even money. It is outside the statistical margin for error with maximum bets being this large. The max bet was 1k when San was still in 1.50 to 1.60 territory from memory and only moves a couple points with each max bet. Additionally, money was coming in on San on the other side. To move the line to 1.20ish, an absolute minimum of decent five figures would have to have come in on Dark and potentially six figures. While this money is inconsequential to Pinnacle Sports, it is a lot of money to the average person. Here is the first email I sent to Pinnacle; sometime during the Dream vs Leenock game I believe or maybe just before it started. Anything inside [brackets] like this is an addition to the original emails. Hi my account is [x] In all of my time betting esports ive never seen anything like the San vs Dark line movement. It would appear the game might be fixed in favour of Dark, i'm sure you've noticed this. I'm sure you've noticed i'm pretty sharp on esports, I post my picks here http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/sports-betting/esport-betting-1497866/index12.html#post45893445 and the entire thread is worried about this. San was already a +EV bet at +145 [edit - this is debatable but at +200 or higher it would not be debatable and the line got to somthing like +400 at which point some of the worst foreigners would be an easy bet in a best of 1 against the best players in proleague], the line movement out north of +300 is nuts. Every time it just gets hammered over and over for 1k. The game hasn't happened yet but if San's build order is a throw i'd like some sort of investigation here, I might contact Kespa as well, the organisation that runs proleague. As i have bets on San this really concerns me. This is literally the first time i've ever thought an esports match might be fixed and the game hasn't even happened yet - San is objectively in the 40-60% range to win depending what you value when handicapping (I have him at +100 to -105 personally) and it is literally impossible for the line to move in this manner without some sort of manipulation. I'm sure you noticed this as you reduced the limits back from 1k to 100. [Pinnacle reduced the betting limits back to the starting range of $100 after accepting what I believe is over a hundred thousand in bets on the game at 1k a bet, almost all of which was on Dark so clearly they had noticed a suspicious pattern in the bets prior to me even contacting them or posting anything outside of the twoplustwo esports discussion thread] As the game happens shortly i'm pretty worried about the spot. Please look into it asap and advice me of how we proceed from here -------------------- End email I then receive three emails back to back from Pinnacle's customer support department Dear Client, We have forwarded your e-mail to the appropriate department. As soon as we have any information regards to this matter, we will contact you as soon as possible. Kind Regards, Customer Service Department / Pinnacle Sports Dear Client, We already informed our Trading Department about it. Thank you for bring it to our attention. Have a nice day. Kind Regards, Customer Service Department / Pinnacle Sports Dear Client, For now this game has been taken offline to find out what is going on in this match. Kind Regards, Customer Service Department / Pinnacle Sports The match then occurs. San plays horrendously, losing a probe in a dumb spot a diamond player can avoid, losing a mothership core in a spot a gold player can avoid, then doing an immortal build but never attacking; then taking the gold; then never building AOE vs roach hydra, then blinking stalkers on top of roach hydra in a terrible trade. This obviously proves nothing other than he played poorly but when combined with the unusual betting patterns, it is suspicious. Not conclusive, but suspicious. I email Pinnacle back with the gist of the email being 'well, that was suspicious'. After Life loses to Classic and the match is concluded I get the following email from Pinnacle Dear Client, We appreciate your kind comments. Pinnacle Sports has always been very clear that we will take an aggressive stance against any perceived match-fixing or corruption in any sports that we offer betting for. As the world’s leading eSports bookmaker we are therefore especially committed to preventing corruption and match-manipulation in eSports. The match has been identified by our fraud prevention team as being manipulated. The bet placement pattern clearly indicates that the match was not played on a fair basis. As a result all bets on this match have been voided. We apologize for the inconvenience this causes for anyone betting on this match in good faith, but I am sure you will appreciate that protecting the integrity of eSports is of paramount importance. Kind Regards, Customer Service Department / Pinnacle Sports That's when I take to twitter; then shortly after I post (trying to draw attention to what just happened as I have no idea Pinnacle is about to make a statement) Pinnacle makes a statement linked from their twitter which can be read here http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/notice/esports-statement?ito=twitter If you've made it this far and haven't seen it yet please take the time to read it. Meanwhile; some other bettors and I are speculating in the twoplustwo esports thread which I linked earlier. Posts are timestamped. General consensus opinion there is that San threw the game; again that's just opinion including my own at the time. Then this thread happens after the Pinnacle notice that they believe the game was manipulated/not conducted fairly (would have happened regardless of whether I emailed Pinnacle about my suspicions or not as they had already drastically reduced max bet size and then shortly after my first email removed the betting line) Pinnacle regularly takes millions of dollars in action, always pays customers immediately and i've wagered a total six figures there with no hassles over several years including withdrawing about 10k net profit. They are literally the most trustworthy and professional sportsbook in the industry and I would trust them over most non gambling related businesses. So where do we stand now? Well, I believe there are a few possibilities. These are all my personal opinions based on the circumstantion evidence available. San - May or may not have thrown the game deliberately; either for payment or for some other reason. Kespa should and I assume will investigate. There is clearly enough circumstantion evidence to warrant an investigation. Ideally this would have occurred before this info was made public by Pinnacle (or by me if you want to say that, but without Pinnacle's statement nothing ever happens here). San will either be exonerated, or evidence will come to light proving the allegations. He or someone close to him may or may not have leaked confidential information about his health, build, practice, etc. he's innocent until proven guilty, but one of the two situations is overwhelmingly likely to have occurred given the impossible line movement and how the match actually played out. The third possibility is that through some fairly mathematically impossible coincidences everything was above board. I stated on Twitter I will apologise to San if it turns out that there was no wrongdoing by any parties for any role I played in the situation; however Pinnacle and Kespa are the main parties involved here, i'm just some guy who bets on esports and noticed the same suspicious line moment that Pinnacle noticed, watched the game, then talked about my observations publicly. Pinnacle/Kespa - I hope Pinnacle will assist Kespa in investigating once Pinnacle's own investigation is complete. This info won't be made public about how their algorithms detect fraud as it is a trade secret and releasing it will help both their competitors as well as match fixing syndicates in esports (if they exist) and elewhere get around their anti-fraud protections. I would like to think they would be willing to work with Kespa privately to confirm the account/s the massive money on Dark came from and the real identities those accounts are linked to if it will assist Kespa in their investigation. I have no idea if this will occur or not, I have no affiliation with either organisation beyond watching Kespa's product and betting using Pinnacle's product. I assume Startale-Yoe will rest San next week regardless between this and his health issues, in the event that he is played I would expect Pinnacle and all betting organisation not to offer lines on San or Startale-Yoe's games until this is resolved. I hope i'm wrong, Pinnacle is wrong and San is entirely innocent and just played badly. Startale-Yoe is one of my favourite teams and it would suck for them to lose San and it would suck for Esports to have another match fixing scandal or even an inside information betting scandal. Numbers don't lie though and it's objectively unlikely that everything was above board and it is my personal opinion to agree with Pinnacle's statement on the situation that the market was manipulated and something happened. Determining whether San did anything wrong or not is a separate matter that I have nothing to do with. I have suspicions but those are opinion and I don't have access to the information I would need to determine anything conclusive. It's not up to me to determine what if anything happened, it's up to Pinnacle and Kespa. I'm just a guy who loves esports, likes to bet on esports and wants to keep esports clean and fair. I hope everything here was clean and fair, but the numbers say something happened they just don't say what. It's not up to me to speculate further at this point and i'll do my best to refrain from commenting further on the matter unless additional information is released by Kespa or Pinnacle. | ||
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Hider
Denmark9336 Posts
I wonder if you also could make a new thread clearing it up on Sc2reddit. The circlejerk there is even worse than you see amongst the new Pinnacle-haters here. | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
I lurk on reddit but don't really post there. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland11784 Posts
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Jarree
Finland1004 Posts
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lichter
1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
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