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Matchfixing is a very serious offence and accusations of matchfixing should not be made lightly. Please avoid making accusations against specific individuals unless you have substantial proof, or until further information is released. (0620 KST) |
On January 22 2015 00:05 Subversive wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2015 00:04 ragax09 wrote:On January 21 2015 23:53 Subversive wrote:On January 21 2015 23:47 Hider wrote:
Whatever dude. I don't abuse people in my posts, perhaps you should try the same. Every person you don't agree with isn't posting bullshit. Learn to play nice.
Your talking bullshit because you didn't risk any money in this case. Pinnaclesport refundeded all money regardless of outcome.
Whatever dude. I don't abuse people in my posts, perhaps you should try the same. Every person you don't agree with isn't posting bullshit. Learn to play nice.
Look I am pretty sure that when you make an account on Pinnaclesports, the terms of conditions are that they can cancel a bet when there is strong suspicions of match fixing/cheat. This was the case here, and thus they have done nothing wrong. You risk the money because you assume the bet is valid when you make it. If the match goes against you - everyone who bet on San, then it's a net gain. And a loss for everyone who bet on Dark. People keep saying the company is massive, and that these are tiny amounts for Pinnacle. If that were true, they could pay up. As for what you wrote after, if that's true, cool. Then it's above board. What I wrote above is completely reasonable conjecture. Why should they pay out if a lot of money was placed in fraudulent manner? I wouldnt want that as a customer. Also yes these are tiny amounts, they are taking 180k€ per bet on the superbowl at the moment. Because a bunch of people didn't bet fraudulently. If they're so suspicious of some of the larger, spammed bets as the odds went haywire, refund those without payment. They could honour the rest. But whatever, if what Hider says is true, in the T&C they don't have to, so it's a moot point.
This doesn't make an ounce of sense, If the match isn't bet on fairly then the entire line is tainted, what would you propose for those that fairly bet on Dark? That they somehow earn more because they didn't screw up the line? It doesn't work like that.
Someone took a crap in the pool and no one gets to swim, that's the way it works.
Just a reminder this is a billion dollar company, you think it's realistic that they're out to screw a few thousand bucks out of people?
Edit: apparently max bet was 1k for a while
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@swoopae
Very good post! I agree with all of your possible causes, including probability estimates. Thanks for posting it, it makes everything much more clear.
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On January 22 2015 00:31 Jarree wrote:
That's a great post Swoopae, well detailed. I'm also a former poker professional with 5+ years in the gaming industry as an affiliate and I didn't find any major holes in your post. That post should be an entire topic of it's own, since this will get buried here and it's the most important post in this thread.
Just reading the twoplustwo-thread made me regreat my decision to ever leave poker in favor of Starcraft. Surely poker was never as fun as Sc2 was, but the latter community is filled with too many people who makes comments with their heart instead of brain. Twoplustwo was definitely the smartest community I ever had been a part of.
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Well to be fair the people here on average are not very informed on issues like line movement, sports books, esports betting in general and what does and does not look like market manipulation, so I got a lot of personal attacks (which I am pretty much ambivalent towards, I play poker for a living so it comes with the territory)
The people on the sportsbetting forum see '95%+ chance theres market manipulation and that almost always means match fixing or at the very least inside info' and conclude therefore that it was a fix. I've tried to be more diplomatic, but the situation is overwhelmingly unlikely to all be above board. Whether San or anyone he knows is guilty of wrongdoing or not is something I can't answer; but it's more possible than I want it to be as an esports fan. If this had happened in a boxing match or some random sport I had no emotional attachment to, simply based on the data, I would have assumed the game was a fix as well.
One thing some people don't get ITT is that Pinnacle literally has an impeccable reputation which is almost unheard of for a major sportsbook. They treat their customers well, welcome winning players, have huge limits, quick deposits/withdraws with no hassle and amazing security and support departments. Similarly to how pre-Amaya Pokerstars was viewed in the poker community, this company's word IS good enough for most serious sportsbettors, myself included. I am 100% sure Pinnacle are certain to within a very small margin of error that the content of their release is accurate or they would not have released it.
San is innocent until proven guilty, but SOMETHING that was not above board happened here high 90-something percent of the time, math doesn't lie and as the losing player in the match of question who had very large amounts of money piled on him to lose in a suspicious pattern outside the pinnacle fraud departments margin of error suspicion automatically falls on him. Then there are all of the errors made in the game; it's similar to chip dumping in poker, while I won't go into detail; a smart player can hide a loss with 'explainable' mistakes, sometimes people with stolen credit cards try to use online poker sites to launder money using 'chip dumping' (playing randomly against lots of accounts on the stolen money then trying to lose to a 'target' opponent in a believable fashion so that the accomplice with an account in good standing can cash the money out without a security check on the account the money was deposited from - PokerStars for example catches people doing this using algorithms and they are the Pinnacle equivalent in the poker world.
I mean, if I was going to operate a match-fixing syndicate, the key to success would be to a) lose the matches in a believable fashion to believable opponents while denying yourself any chance to get an unassailable lead as losing from there would be suspicious and b) get as much money as possible on the winner of the match without flagging the sportsbook's fraud detection systems. IF there was match fixing here (or inside info San almost always loses for whatever reason) then they got greedy, as this type of line move is unprecedented and illogical. Criminals are stupid though sometimes. The limits were larger than usual on this game (at 1k a bet which would mean risking 4-5k to win 1k profit on san per bet and there were a HUGE number of bets made) and they may have decided to go for a big score. This is speculation of course. You would need to speak with a pinnacle risk/fraud analyst to get the full story and specific numbers.
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Just to clarify one more point; I couldn't care less about the 600 dollars I had refunded on San; if Pinnacle's further investigation leads to them changing course and thinking the match was legitimate by all means take the refunds from the people who bet San and use them to pay the people who bet Dark. I just don't think that's going to happen. Pinnacle would not do this unless there were 99.9x% sure that the market was actually manipulated. They have literally NEVER cancelled an sc2 esports bet in this manner and there have probably been more than 10,000 esports lines offered on pinnacle over the past few years as an indication of how unlikely it is mathematically that everything was above board.
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1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
On January 22 2015 00:49 Swoopae wrote:
IF there was match fixing here (or inside info San almost always loses for whatever reason) then they got greedy, as this type of line move is unprecedented and illogical. Criminals are stupid though sometimes. The limits were larger than usual on this game (at 1k a bet which would mean risking 4-5k to win 1k profit on san per bet and there were a HUGE number of bets made) and they may have decided to go for a big score. This is speculation of course. You would need to speak with a pinnacle risk/fraud analyst to get the full story and specific numbers.
this is what bothers me the most, and i find it really suspicious that they'd be this dumb. of course, criminals can be dumb. is there no way for pinnacle to investigate the accounts that made the bets? obviously they are going to keep the bettors anonymous, but certainly part of the investigation should be figuring out if the accounts are in any way connected to each other, if the accounts were long time users, or new accounts, etc. pinnacle shouldn't say a word about the investigation until they've completed it but i hope this is something they end up finding out.
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On January 22 2015 00:49 Swoopae wrote:
Well to be fair the people here on average are not very informed on issues like line movement, sports books, esports betting in general and what does and does not look like market manipulation, so I got a lot of personal attacks (which I am pretty much ambivalent towards, I play poker for a living so it comes with the territory)
The people on the sportsbetting forum see '95%+ chance theres market manipulation and that almost always means match fixing or at the very least inside info' and conclude therefore that it was a fix. I've tried to be more diplomatic, but the situation is overwhelmingly unlikely to all be above board. Whether San or anyone he knows is guilty of wrongdoing or not is something I can't answer; but it's more possible than I want it to be as an esports fan. If this had happened in a boxing match or some random sport I had no emotional attachment to, simply based on the data, I would have assumed the game was a fix as well.
One thing some people don't get ITT is that Pinnacle literally has an impeccable reputation which is almost unheard of for a major sportsbook. They treat their customers well, welcome winning players, have huge limits, quick deposits/withdraws with no hassle and amazing security and support departments. Similarly to how pre-Amaya Pokerstars was viewed in the poker community, this company's word IS good enough for most serious sportsbettors, myself included. I am 100% sure Pinnacle are certain to within a very small margin of error that the content of their release is accurate or they would not have released it.
San is innocent until proven guilty, but SOMETHING that was not above board happened here high 90-something percent of the time, math doesn't lie and as the losing player in the match of question who had very large amounts of money piled on him to lose in a suspicious pattern outside the pinnacle fraud departments margin of error suspicion automatically falls on him. Then there are all of the errors made in the game; it's similar to chip dumping in poker, while I won't go into detail; a smart player can hide a loss with 'explainable' mistakes, sometimes people with stolen credit cards try to use online poker sites to launder money using 'chip dumping' (playing randomly against lots of accounts on the stolen money then trying to lose to a 'target' opponent in a believable fashion so that the accomplice with an account in good standing can cash the money out without a security check on the account the money was deposited from - PokerStars for example catches people doing this using algorithms and they are the Pinnacle equivalent in the poker world.
I mean, if I was going to operate a match-fixing syndicate, the key to success would be to a) lose the matches in a believable fashion to believable opponents while denying yourself any chance to get an unassailable lead as losing from there would be suspicious and b) get as much money as possible on the winner of the match without flagging the sportsbook's fraud detection systems. IF there was match fixing here (or inside info San almost always loses for whatever reason) then they got greedy, as this type of line move is unprecedented and illogical. Criminals are stupid though sometimes. The limits were larger than usual on this game (at 1k a bet which would mean risking 4-5k to win 1k profit on san per bet and there were a HUGE number of bets made) and they may have decided to go for a big score. This is speculation of course. You would need to speak with a pinnacle risk/fraud analyst to get the full story and specific numbers.
You are stil justl speculating that San did something wrong. You admit that you don't know whether it's the case but you still believe suspicion should fall on him. You reall should just drop that part of your argument because beyond the claim that there was market manipulation, you have absolutely no idea whether the ultimate explanation is match-fixing, insider info without San's knowledge, or something else.
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One more point to bring up for people who don't understand betting odds.
There are three main ways odds are displayed
American Odds
-500 means bet 500 to win 100 profit for 600 total back
+388 means bet 100 to win 388 profit for 488 total back
European Odds
1.20 means $100 returns $20 profit for $120 total back
2.72 means $100 returns $172 profit for $272 total back
Fractional Odds
1/1 means even money, $100 returns $100 profit for $200 total back
4/1 means a bet of $100 returns $400 profit for $500 total back
1/4 means a bet of $40 returns $10 profit for $50 total back.
I hope that clears up some misconceptions.
In this case, San opened at +145, got bet in to +110ish (two $100 bets here were by me, which moved the line a couple points but most of the line move I assume was sharp money as this game should be closer to +100 based on my analysis which has shown over time to be profitable, and certainly San at +200 or better is profitable over the long term in a bo1 vs Dark). The line then got bet out to +200, I thought great someone's overvaluing Dark's recent form and added the remainder of my bet on San when limits were something like $250-300 (I don't recall exactly but it was in that range). Then money started to come in on San a bit, then Dark again, seems normal etc. Suddenly, when the limits get raised to $1k per bet (meaning risk 3000 to win 1000 profit if the odds are -300 on Dark, or 1000 to win 3000 profit if the odds are +300 for San) the money just POURED in on Dark and didn't stop until they took the line down. Periodically someone would bet the clearly amazing San +350 or whatever line (as an indication, this would roughly be a fair line for a fairly bad foreigner vs a top proleague player in a best of 1, not two proleague caliber players). The line got pushed out towards -500 (it was -4xx on Dark last I saw it, but I wasn't watching closely and it got taken down). As an indication of what that means, it means if Dark and San played a bo29 series, Dark would have to win about 15-3 on average for the bets at -500 to break even. Yes, on average, so every time Dark wins 15-6, he would also have to win a series 15-0 with San literally never winning a series. You can see how that is not an attractive betting spot with these particular players even if one is out of form. For example, even Terror (sorry terror for using you as an example, keep improving plz) who is arguably the worst player regularly fielded in proleague would be a +EV bet at this price if you had bet on him in every game he has played this season because he won 1 game.
Somewhere around this time I emailed Pinnacle detailing my suspicions, seconds before my email they lowered the limit to $100 from $1k then they cancelled the bets/released the statement etc as detailed in my long post.
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On January 22 2015 00:55 lichter wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2015 00:49 Swoopae wrote:
IF there was match fixing here (or inside info San almost always loses for whatever reason) then they got greedy, as this type of line move is unprecedented and illogical. Criminals are stupid though sometimes. The limits were larger than usual on this game (at 1k a bet which would mean risking 4-5k to win 1k profit on san per bet and there were a HUGE number of bets made) and they may have decided to go for a big score. This is speculation of course. You would need to speak with a pinnacle risk/fraud analyst to get the full story and specific numbers. this is what bothers me the most, and i find it really suspicious that they'd be this dumb. of course, criminals can be dumb. is there no way for pinnacle to investigate the accounts that made the bets? obviously they are going to keep the bettors anonymous, but certainly part of the investigation should be figuring out if the accounts are in any way connected to each other, if the accounts were long time users, or new accounts, etc. pinnacle shouldn't say a word about the investigation until they've completed it but i hope this is something they end up finding out.
Take a look at this case:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolay_Davydenko#Controversies
Some betting ring tried to put in 10x the normal amount of money *during* the game and got found out. So yes, people do stupid things. But, I wouldn't be surprised if people just hoped to fly under the radar since eSports isn't huge business for Pinnacle (5 or 6 figures versus 8 figures on random early round tennis match).
One thing I speculated on way back in the thread is this might have been a group of people testing how much they could get away with on Pinnacle before being caught. I didn't realize the max bet on eSports was so low, so to make this worth their time they'd have to make lots of small bets rather than pretending to be some rich kid throwing cash around. Seems they'd have to flirt with tripping their system in that case.
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On January 22 2015 01:05 Doodsmack wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2015 00:49 Swoopae wrote:
Well to be fair the people here on average are not very informed on issues like line movement, sports books, esports betting in general and what does and does not look like market manipulation, so I got a lot of personal attacks (which I am pretty much ambivalent towards, I play poker for a living so it comes with the territory)
The people on the sportsbetting forum see '95%+ chance theres market manipulation and that almost always means match fixing or at the very least inside info' and conclude therefore that it was a fix. I've tried to be more diplomatic, but the situation is overwhelmingly unlikely to all be above board. Whether San or anyone he knows is guilty of wrongdoing or not is something I can't answer; but it's more possible than I want it to be as an esports fan. If this had happened in a boxing match or some random sport I had no emotional attachment to, simply based on the data, I would have assumed the game was a fix as well.
One thing some people don't get ITT is that Pinnacle literally has an impeccable reputation which is almost unheard of for a major sportsbook. They treat their customers well, welcome winning players, have huge limits, quick deposits/withdraws with no hassle and amazing security and support departments. Similarly to how pre-Amaya Pokerstars was viewed in the poker community, this company's word IS good enough for most serious sportsbettors, myself included. I am 100% sure Pinnacle are certain to within a very small margin of error that the content of their release is accurate or they would not have released it.
San is innocent until proven guilty, but SOMETHING that was not above board happened here high 90-something percent of the time, math doesn't lie and as the losing player in the match of question who had very large amounts of money piled on him to lose in a suspicious pattern outside the pinnacle fraud departments margin of error suspicion automatically falls on him. Then there are all of the errors made in the game; it's similar to chip dumping in poker, while I won't go into detail; a smart player can hide a loss with 'explainable' mistakes, sometimes people with stolen credit cards try to use online poker sites to launder money using 'chip dumping' (playing randomly against lots of accounts on the stolen money then trying to lose to a 'target' opponent in a believable fashion so that the accomplice with an account in good standing can cash the money out without a security check on the account the money was deposited from - PokerStars for example catches people doing this using algorithms and they are the Pinnacle equivalent in the poker world.
I mean, if I was going to operate a match-fixing syndicate, the key to success would be to a) lose the matches in a believable fashion to believable opponents while denying yourself any chance to get an unassailable lead as losing from there would be suspicious and b) get as much money as possible on the winner of the match without flagging the sportsbook's fraud detection systems. IF there was match fixing here (or inside info San almost always loses for whatever reason) then they got greedy, as this type of line move is unprecedented and illogical. Criminals are stupid though sometimes. The limits were larger than usual on this game (at 1k a bet which would mean risking 4-5k to win 1k profit on san per bet and there were a HUGE number of bets made) and they may have decided to go for a big score. This is speculation of course. You would need to speak with a pinnacle risk/fraud analyst to get the full story and specific numbers. You are stil justl speculating that San did something wrong. You admit that you don't know whether it's the case but you still believe suspicion should fall on him. You reall should just drop that part of your argument because beyond the claim that there was market manipulation, you have absolutely no idea whether the ultimate explanation is match-fixing, insider info without San's knowledge, or something else.
Agreed. It's shitty to keep mentioning his name. If he's guilty, let it come out in an investigation. Continually saying "I'm not saying San fixed the game but..." isn't much better.
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On January 22 2015 01:05 Doodsmack wrote:
You are stil justl speculating that San did something wrong. You admit that you don't know whether it's the case but you still believe suspicion should fall on him. You reall should just drop that part of your argument because beyond the claim that there was market manipulation, you have absolutely no idea whether the ultimate explanation is match-fixing, insider info without San's knowledge, or something else.
I've stated San is innocent until proven guilty. If he is innocent, and yes that is an if, then it is overwhelmingly likely that someone close to him did everything in their power to ensure he loses which is still a form of match fixing. The market was manipulated and someone KNEW San wins less than 1 in 5 times in a best of 1 against a similarly skilled player (who he has a lifetime and recent winning record against although thats not too relevant)
Something happened here, and it needs to be investigated, and that sucks for San if he's innocent, but if he's innocent he'll be cleared (and there's a good chance he needs to cut a friend or coach out of his life for risking his livelihood to make money). If he's guilty they may find proof and they may not and if they don't it's fair to give him the presumption of innocence.
If literally nothing is found to explain the situaiton, it's also fair to warn people not to bet on San's matches for real money though because Pinnacle don't just make this accusation that the game was not fairly contested and refund what I assume is 5-6 figures of bets in the process unless it is overwhelmingly mathematically unlikely that the game was fair.
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On January 22 2015 01:05 Doodsmack wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2015 00:49 Swoopae wrote:
Well to be fair the people here on average are not very informed on issues like line movement, sports books, esports betting in general and what does and does not look like market manipulation, so I got a lot of personal attacks (which I am pretty much ambivalent towards, I play poker for a living so it comes with the territory)
The people on the sportsbetting forum see '95%+ chance theres market manipulation and that almost always means match fixing or at the very least inside info' and conclude therefore that it was a fix. I've tried to be more diplomatic, but the situation is overwhelmingly unlikely to all be above board. Whether San or anyone he knows is guilty of wrongdoing or not is something I can't answer; but it's more possible than I want it to be as an esports fan. If this had happened in a boxing match or some random sport I had no emotional attachment to, simply based on the data, I would have assumed the game was a fix as well.
One thing some people don't get ITT is that Pinnacle literally has an impeccable reputation which is almost unheard of for a major sportsbook. They treat their customers well, welcome winning players, have huge limits, quick deposits/withdraws with no hassle and amazing security and support departments. Similarly to how pre-Amaya Pokerstars was viewed in the poker community, this company's word IS good enough for most serious sportsbettors, myself included. I am 100% sure Pinnacle are certain to within a very small margin of error that the content of their release is accurate or they would not have released it.
San is innocent until proven guilty, but SOMETHING that was not above board happened here high 90-something percent of the time, math doesn't lie and as the losing player in the match of question who had very large amounts of money piled on him to lose in a suspicious pattern outside the pinnacle fraud departments margin of error suspicion automatically falls on him. Then there are all of the errors made in the game; it's similar to chip dumping in poker, while I won't go into detail; a smart player can hide a loss with 'explainable' mistakes, sometimes people with stolen credit cards try to use online poker sites to launder money using 'chip dumping' (playing randomly against lots of accounts on the stolen money then trying to lose to a 'target' opponent in a believable fashion so that the accomplice with an account in good standing can cash the money out without a security check on the account the money was deposited from - PokerStars for example catches people doing this using algorithms and they are the Pinnacle equivalent in the poker world.
I mean, if I was going to operate a match-fixing syndicate, the key to success would be to a) lose the matches in a believable fashion to believable opponents while denying yourself any chance to get an unassailable lead as losing from there would be suspicious and b) get as much money as possible on the winner of the match without flagging the sportsbook's fraud detection systems. IF there was match fixing here (or inside info San almost always loses for whatever reason) then they got greedy, as this type of line move is unprecedented and illogical. Criminals are stupid though sometimes. The limits were larger than usual on this game (at 1k a bet which would mean risking 4-5k to win 1k profit on san per bet and there were a HUGE number of bets made) and they may have decided to go for a big score. This is speculation of course. You would need to speak with a pinnacle risk/fraud analyst to get the full story and specific numbers. You are stil justl speculating that San did something wrong. You admit that you don't know whether it's the case but you still believe suspicion should fall on him. You reall should just drop that part of your argument because beyond the claim that there was market manipulation, you have absolutely no idea whether the ultimate explanation is match-fixing, insider info without San's knowledge, or something else.
If it is highly likely matchfixing has happened, it is also likely that San is involved. He may be, or he may not be. But it's not 50-50 only because there is 2 possible options. He also stated this with different words.
edit: and I find it highly unlikely it can ever be proven one way or the another. So in the eyes of law he is innocent no matter what. Doesn't still mean there isn't a possibility, and if you're not allowed to say that out loud, gg.
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On January 22 2015 00:55 lichter wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2015 00:49 Swoopae wrote:
IF there was match fixing here (or inside info San almost always loses for whatever reason) then they got greedy, as this type of line move is unprecedented and illogical. Criminals are stupid though sometimes. The limits were larger than usual on this game (at 1k a bet which would mean risking 4-5k to win 1k profit on san per bet and there were a HUGE number of bets made) and they may have decided to go for a big score. This is speculation of course. You would need to speak with a pinnacle risk/fraud analyst to get the full story and specific numbers. this is what bothers me the most, and i find it really suspicious that they'd be this dumb. of course, criminals can be dumb. is there no way for pinnacle to investigate the accounts that made the bets? obviously they are going to keep the bettors anonymous, but certainly part of the investigation should be figuring out if the accounts are in any way connected to each other, if the accounts were long time users, or new accounts, etc. pinnacle shouldn't say a word about the investigation until they've completed it but i hope this is something they end up finding out.
There are many cases of match fixing syndicates in other sports being caught because they got greedy. An esports match fixing syndicate was uncovered in 2010. It can happen. As the other poster above mentioned check out Davydenko. Criminals are not you me or the average person. Most criminals are dumb, and arrogant and make mistakes. If they didn't, there wouldn't be any criminals in jail.
I hope that Pinnacle are in the process of investigating the accounts that piled money on Dark (it could even be one account if the criminals are really dumb as you can re-bet a line over and over from the same account) and whether they're linked, what country they're based in, what their bet histories are etc
I can't speculate, but I can promise that if we don't get updates to the investigation from Pinnacle and Kespa i'll email Pinnacle repeatedly for updates and call them out on social media if need be. My only agenda here is that I want to find out what actually happened and see justice done whatever that entails.
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You reall should just drop that part of your argument because beyond the claim that there was market manipulation, you have absolutely no idea whether the ultimate explanation is match-fixing, insider info without San's knowledge, or something else.
The most probable explanation is match-fixing. Insider-info can explain so much. Not practicing well for a weak could possibly explain the probability of winning declining by 5 percentage point, but a (somewhat) rational inside better isn't going to bet on 1.2-1.25 on this info.
So yes, San is innocent untill proven guilty, but that doesn't imply that one cannot be strongly suspicious while waiting for further evidence.
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I'm off for the night, I hope I was useful in explaining some of why both Pinnacle and the esports betting community i'm a part of found this match suspicious. I'll check in on the thread periodically and post if I have anything useful to add. At this stage, it's best to leave it in the hands of Pinnacle representatives and Kespa officials, and strongly urge the two organisations to cooperate and investigate thoroughly so this isn't left in the land of speculation.
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On January 22 2015 01:13 Swoopae wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2015 01:05 Doodsmack wrote:
You are stil justl speculating that San did something wrong. You admit that you don't know whether it's the case but you still believe suspicion should fall on him. You reall should just drop that part of your argument because beyond the claim that there was market manipulation, you have absolutely no idea whether the ultimate explanation is match-fixing, insider info without San's knowledge, or something else. I've stated San is innocent until proven guilty. If he is innocent, and yes that is an if, then it is overwhelmingly likely that someone close to him did everything in their power to ensure he loses which is still a form of match fixing. The market was manipulated and someone KNEW San wins less than 1 in 5 times in a best of 1 against a similarly skilled player (who he has a lifetime and recent winning record against although thats not too relevant) Something happened here, and it needs to be investigated, and that sucks for San if he's innocent, but if he's innocent he'll be cleared (and there's a good chance he needs to cut a friend or coach out of his life for risking his livelihood to make money). If he's guilty they may find proof and they may not and if they don't it's fair to give him the presumption of innocence. If literally nothing is found to explain the situaiton, it's also fair to warn people not to bet on San's matches for real money though because Pinnacle don't just make this accusation that the game was not fairly contested and refund what I assume is 5-6 figures of bets in the process unless it is overwhelmingly mathematically unlikely that the game was fair.
Yeah right. But only after stating multiple times on Twitter that San was throwing the game for money, and telling people not to bet on him anymore before something may be found to explain the situation. What an ethical behavior.
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On January 22 2015 01:13 Swoopae wrote:
I've stated San is innocent until proven guilty. If he is innocent, and yes that is an if, then it is overwhelmingly likely that someone close to him did everything in their power to ensure he loses which is still a form of match fixing. The market was manipulated and someone KNEW San wins less than 1 in 5 times in a best of 1 against a similarly skilled player (who he has a lifetime and recent winning record against although thats not too relevant)
Something happened here, and it needs to be investigated, and that sucks for San if he's innocent, but if he's innocent he'll be cleared (and there's a good chance he needs to cut a friend or coach out of his life for risking his livelihood to make money). If he's guilty they may find proof and they may not and if they don't it's fair to give him the presumption of innocence.
If literally nothing is found to explain the situaiton, it's also fair to warn people not to bet on San's matches for real money though because Pinnacle don't just make this accusation that the game was not fairly contested and refund what I assume is 5-6 figures of bets in the process unless it is overwhelmingly mathematically unlikely that the game was fair.
Wow, wait a second. Please take a look at the first page of this thread. Do you see the tweet that was embedded there? That was your tweet, directly accusing him of throwing the game for money.
So please stop further speculations or accusations. Every time you write something you speculate that he is guilty which makes me question whether you have an argenda regarding this.
Your behavior is pretty much the definition of being a scumbag.
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On January 22 2015 01:31 OtherWorld wrote:
telling people not to bet on him anymore before something may be found to explain the situation. What an ethical behavior.
That's actually extremely ethical behavior. But I guess fans and bettors differ in this matter.
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Not sure someone hasn't lifted this earlier in the thread but the strange thing, if San was really out of form, is that startale-yoe fielded him anyway.
Unless Hack, alive were in equally bad shape.
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On January 22 2015 01:34 Nezgar wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2015 01:13 Swoopae wrote:
I've stated San is innocent until proven guilty. If he is innocent, and yes that is an if, then it is overwhelmingly likely that someone close to him did everything in their power to ensure he loses which is still a form of match fixing. The market was manipulated and someone KNEW San wins less than 1 in 5 times in a best of 1 against a similarly skilled player (who he has a lifetime and recent winning record against although thats not too relevant)
Something happened here, and it needs to be investigated, and that sucks for San if he's innocent, but if he's innocent he'll be cleared (and there's a good chance he needs to cut a friend or coach out of his life for risking his livelihood to make money). If he's guilty they may find proof and they may not and if they don't it's fair to give him the presumption of innocence.
If literally nothing is found to explain the situaiton, it's also fair to warn people not to bet on San's matches for real money though because Pinnacle don't just make this accusation that the game was not fairly contested and refund what I assume is 5-6 figures of bets in the process unless it is overwhelmingly mathematically unlikely that the game was fair. Wow, wait a second. Please take a look at the first page of this thread. Do you see the tweet that was embedded there? That was your tweet, directly accusing him of throwing the game for money. So please stop further speculations or accusations. Every time you write something you speculate that he is guilty which makes me question whether you have an argenda regarding this. Your behavior is pretty much the definition of being a scumbag.
Pretty sure he deleted that tweet, and admitted he made a mistake with that claim.
On the other hand, you making speculations that he has an agenda, despite the fact that he said he had none --> Your directly accusing him of lying. But if you just do a bit of background check on him, you will see that he is an esports-better that already has got his money back from Pinnacle. There is no obvious monetary motive here, all he seems to be interested in is the truth. So you making this claim is very unethical of you.
If anything, your behaviour is pretty much the definition of being a scumbag.
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EPT
