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Matchfixing is a very serious offence and accusations of matchfixing should not be made lightly. Please avoid making accusations against specific individuals unless you have substantial proof, or until further information is released. (0620 KST) |
On January 22 2015 02:08 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +What if someone knew about San's condition and decided to do something crazy? You have no idea either way so you should not keep insinuating that San is very likely guilty, which we all know is your belief. The problem is that you assume that because there are different possibilites, each possbility is equally likely, however, that's not true. On one hand you have the following possiblity: A: An inside better knows that San hasn't practiced well the prior week, but is also irrational in the sense that he puts way too much emphasize on it. It seems weird that a bettor with access too huge sums that - apparently is in betting to win money - is also this irrational. B: San was paid to lose the game. The latter is just more likely. There are just fewer conditions that needs to go up for this to be true. Some people in here think they may know San becasue they watched him play and read a few interviews, but come one, you don't really know this guy. Instead, it seems plausible that - out of all the PL players with the potential for a low future income, that there is a single player who tries to go for the easy money. Thus, the concept that one has no idea doesn't make sense as you can make speculations based on probabilities + you can warn other people based on that as well. In fact, if I expected that some this guy who was a murder (but wasn't 100% sure) I also would recommend my friends to not visit his house.
So in your subjective opinion, possiblity B is more likely than A. In your subjective opinion, a better just wouldn't be that irrational, and from the seat of your pants you have pulled the hunch that it's more likely San got paid than a better was irrational. By the way you shouldn't assume an irrational better would necessarily be an inside better.
Unfortunately you don't know either way so no one should be claiming that it's "overwhelmingly likely" that matchfixing occurred.
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24 hours and still nothing out of Kespa?
I think there is no appetite in the Korean scene for this inquiry. Which leads me to believe that they know match fixing is going on but since it will hurt their reputation to have to go through an investigation, they would rather just keep it quiet and hope it goes away.
That being said, unless there is something egregious in the replay or unless Pinnacle release more data on the irregularities of the better, there is no way to be sure.
I did notice something last night from the VOD. San was building probes after taking the gold, but despite have 3 nexus he was only building 1 probe at a time. This is while he has 200+ minerals. San might have been sick and had wrist injuries but that shouldn't stop probe production.... unless there is some reason he wanted to stay at 45 probes on 3 bases 15 minutes into the game.
I definitely find his gameplay suspect. He made many mistakes, but he also did not make any excellent plays.
I would love to hear what some high level players think about that game. I concede it could be confirmation bias on my part, but I think there are ~5 odd mistakes from San and nothing in his gameplay to try and make up for those mistakes.
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On January 22 2015 03:24 dsousa wrote:
24 hours and still nothing out of Kespa?
I think there is no appetite in the Korean scene for this inquiry. Which leads me to believe that they know match fixing is going on but since it will hurt their reputation to have to go through an investigation, they would rather just keep it quiet and hope it goes away.
That being said, unless there is something egregious in the replay or unless Pinnacle release more data on the irregularities of the better, there is no way to be sure.
I did notice something last night from the VOD. San was building probes after taking the gold, but despite have 3 nexus he was only building 1 probe at a time. This is while he has 200+ minerals. San might have been sick and had wrist injuries but that shouldn't stop probe production.... unless there is some reason he wanted to stay at 45 probes on 3 bases 15 minutes into the game.
I definitely find his gameplay suspect. He made many mistakes, but he also did not make any excellent plays.
I would love to hear what some high level players think about that game. I concede it could be confirmation bias on my part, but I think there are ~5 odd mistakes from San and nothing in his gameplay to try and make up for those mistakes.
how in the world would they conduct a proper investigation of match fixing in 24 hours?
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On January 22 2015 03:34 dangthatsright wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2015 03:24 dsousa wrote:
24 hours and still nothing out of Kespa?
I think there is no appetite in the Korean scene for this inquiry. Which leads me to believe that they know match fixing is going on but since it will hurt their reputation to have to go through an investigation, they would rather just keep it quiet and hope it goes away.
That being said, unless there is something egregious in the replay or unless Pinnacle release more data on the irregularities of the better, there is no way to be sure.
I did notice something last night from the VOD. San was building probes after taking the gold, but despite have 3 nexus he was only building 1 probe at a time. This is while he has 200+ minerals. San might have been sick and had wrist injuries but that shouldn't stop probe production.... unless there is some reason he wanted to stay at 45 probes on 3 bases 15 minutes into the game.
I definitely find his gameplay suspect. He made many mistakes, but he also did not make any excellent plays.
I would love to hear what some high level players think about that game. I concede it could be confirmation bias on my part, but I think there are ~5 odd mistakes from San and nothing in his gameplay to try and make up for those mistakes.
how in the world would they conduct a proper investigation of match fixing in 24 hours?
They could start by saying there is going to be one.
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Then they could release the replay from the match.
The point is, San isn't the only one under question here.
If the NFL or any major sporting organization had its credibility questioned in regards to fixing, they would step up immediately to refute and address the issue. They wouldn't allow fans and potential fans to think their sport was compromised.
No response, is in a way, the loudest response of all.
No response from kespa could mean this is a lot bigger than just one player.
They should be taking this as an opportunity to re-assure the fans and to crack down on further corruption. Make a strong showing that they won't allow this to happen.
To do that they need to resolve the issue.
Pinnacle has made a strong accusation.
What is the response?
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On January 21 2015 14:59 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2015 13:42 pure.Wasted wrote:On January 21 2015 13:40 Jaded. wrote:On January 21 2015 13:37 pure.Wasted wrote:On January 21 2015 13:24 magicmUnky wrote:On January 21 2015 13:10 Jaded. wrote:
So we have a shady betting site saying the bets on their site were fishy and might have been matchfixing. No real evidence just conjecture.
And TL puts this on News?
You hurting for clicks that badly TL? So we have the most reputable betting site in the world saying that the bets on their site were made in a manner that indicates unfair betting. I fixed it for you. Take note of the language that I used... I didn't say "they think the betting might have been unfair", I said "indicates". There's no guesswork or 'maybes' or anything like that. You've regurgitated a bunch of misconceptions here so I'll just point them out for others to see, hopefully before they get parroted again in this thread. - Unfair betting does not mean the match was fixed. - Pinnacle's reputation cannot reasonably be doubted in this particular situation - Pinncale loses money by voiding the bets - You can decide with certainty that unfair betting is taking place by looking at betting behaviorThis last one will no doubt trip some particularly stubborn minds up but I can't teach statistics and common sense on an sc2 board  I'm not very familiar with betting practices, could you elaborate please on what constitutes unfair betting? Put simply in this case someone or a group made a large amount of illogical bets that triggered the sites warning system. But just because they seem like illogical bets to the average person doesn't really mean they are. I mean, maybe San always loses horribly when there's a full moon out, and only one person in the universe has picked up on this fact. How does the system handle something like that? It's like an american football line that starts with a 7 point spread and ends with a 21 point spread. Betting lines just don't move that much normally without new information.
This is actually a pretty good analogy. It's hard trying to get this type of information about the line moves, etc. across to non-bettors, which is clearly the majority of this forum.
If a move like this happened and was followed by a result like that in a mainstream sport, there would be a massive uproar and investigation, as there was in the Davydenko thing which is just laughable. This type of loss is far different, as seen through any lens, this can pretty much look like a "normal" loss. Yeah, mistakes abounded, but mistakes abound in plenty of professional matches.
Basically, if nothing was found in a case where far more resources were likely devoted to investigating, we can be pretty confident nothing will be found here. What we have now is what we are always likely to be left with: an extremely suspicious happening. Again, all we can do is be vigilant for these situations in the future.
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On January 22 2015 04:00 dsousa wrote:
Then they could release the replay from the match.
The point is, San isn't the only one under question here.
If the NFL or any major sporting organization had its credibility questioned in regards to fixing, they would step up immediately to refute and address the issue. They wouldn't allow fans and potential fans to think their sport was compromised.
No response, is in a way, the loudest response of all.
No response from kespa could mean this is a lot bigger than just one player.
They should be taking this as an opportunity to re-assure the fans and to crack down on further corruption. Make a strong showing that they won't allow this to happen.
To do that they need to resolve the issue.
Pinnacle has made a strong accusation.
What is the response?
Kespa have every player under their belt that can watch the replay. Why would they release it ?
You need to be patient.
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After reading what Swoopae had to say, I personally think San did throw the game. We often forget that the so-called evidence is also probability based and not 100% conclusive. Evidence can be forged, and witnesses can lie. Nothing is at 100% certainty when it comes to human interactions, especially when money is involved. Probability estimations coupled with motive and game analysis is evidence enough for me.
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On January 22 2015 04:11 Cheerio wrote:
After reading what Swoopae had to say, I personally think San did throw the game. We often forget that the so-called evidence is also probability based and not 100% conclusive. Evidence can be forged, and witnesses can lie. Nothing is at 100% certainty when it comes to human interactions, especially when money is involved. Probability estimations coupled with motive and game analysis is evidence enough for me.
Read the mod note..
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On January 22 2015 04:16 pretender58 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2015 04:11 Cheerio wrote:
After reading what Swoopae had to say, I personally think San did throw the game. We often forget that the so-called evidence is also probability based and not 100% conclusive. Evidence can be forged, and witnesses can lie. Nothing is at 100% certainty when it comes to human interactions, especially when money is involved. Probability estimations coupled with motive and game analysis is evidence enough for me. Read the mod note..
point of order
Is saying you "think" something is the case
the same as
accusing someone?
I'm trying to be careful of that myself. Rules are rules. Gotta follow the rules.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/accuse
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couldn't this compared to the "evidence" when calling out a hacker?
if somebody positions his army perfectly without being able to see the incoming attack we call it starsense
if it happens 5 times we say "this guy maphacks with 99% certainty"
when it comes to maphacking nobody asks for a 100% proof .
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On January 22 2015 04:24 Disarmed wrote:
couldn't this compared to the "evidence" when calling out a hacker?
if somebody positions his army perfectly without being able to see the incoming attack we call it starsense
if it happens 5 times we say "this guy maphacks with 99% certainty"
when it comes to maphacking nobody asks for a 100% proof .
The difference here is that we don't have 90% certainty he match fixed, we have 90% certainty something funny when on in the betting. To get from one to the other is a leap of logic that some ITT are intent on making. When people say things like "Kespa hasn't made a statement yet therefore matchfixing is widespread" you can be sure they are making assumptions left and right.
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I personally don't care if pinnacle is one of the most reliable corporations. Without rock solid proof, none of us should even care to point fingers. Judging without clarity just makes things worse. Sure, a lot of us are new at this so we should listen to other people who supposedly know more, but our lack of knowledge is all the more reason not to do anything until everything is crystal clear.
Also, I would appreciate to see how pinnacle is a responsible website with actual sources or something because a lot of us probably never heard of this site. I skimmed the post and so far Swoopae is the only one trying hard to support the notion. Just trusting few liquipedia users is not enough for something of this scale and type.
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On January 22 2015 04:24 Disarmed wrote:
couldn't this compared to the "evidence" when calling out a hacker?
if somebody positions his army perfectly without being able to see the incoming attack we call it starsense
if it happens 5 times we say "this guy maphacks with 99% certainty"
when it comes to maphacking nobody asks for a 100% proof .
Yeah except one is like, an actual crime. And when it's in the biggest league right now (Proleague), it's a way bigger deal than some ladder or daily cup maphacker. When it's such a serious issue, you don't go accusing players when you simply don't have enough evidence to have a truly "educated opinion" on the matter. Plus, San doesn't even have to have fixed the match for betting lines to move in crazy ways. Who knows what mysterious "insider information" caused the whole thing, but unless you have that information, or have definitive proof that San did in fact throw the match, then I see little point in even offering an opinion. It doesn't mean anything until serious evidence is shown.
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On January 22 2015 04:20 dsousa wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2015 04:16 pretender58 wrote:On January 22 2015 04:11 Cheerio wrote:
After reading what Swoopae had to say, I personally think San did throw the game. We often forget that the so-called evidence is also probability based and not 100% conclusive. Evidence can be forged, and witnesses can lie. Nothing is at 100% certainty when it comes to human interactions, especially when money is involved. Probability estimations coupled with motive and game analysis is evidence enough for me. Read the mod note.. point of order Is saying you "think" something is the case the same as accusing someone? I'm trying to be careful of that myself. Rules are rules. Gotta follow the rules. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/accuse
Good point, but he has a very distinct view of what happened. Disguising that as a personal opinion is imo still an accusation, albeit an indirect one.
I´m no mod, so it´s up to them, but the comment was rather blatant.
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On January 22 2015 03:24 dsousa wrote:
24 hours and still nothing out of Kespa?
I think there is no appetite in the Korean scene for this inquiry. Which leads me to believe that they know match fixing is going on but since it will hurt their reputation to have to go through an investigation, they would rather just keep it quiet and hope it goes away.
That being said, unless there is something egregious in the replay or unless Pinnacle release more data on the irregularities of the better, there is no way to be sure.
I did notice something last night from the VOD. San was building probes after taking the gold, but despite have 3 nexus he was only building 1 probe at a time. This is while he has 200+ minerals. San might have been sick and had wrist injuries but that shouldn't stop probe production.... unless there is some reason he wanted to stay at 45 probes on 3 bases 15 minutes into the game.
I definitely find his gameplay suspect. He made many mistakes, but he also did not make any excellent plays.
I would love to hear what some high level players think about that game. I concede it could be confirmation bias on my part, but I think there are ~5 odd mistakes from San and nothing in his gameplay to try and make up for those mistakes.
Remember when Solar revealed he was offered money? KeSPA actually announced that this wasn't the first time a KeSPA player / team had been approached and that it was happening a lot.
So I'd assume KeSPA will respond to this, even if they do a half-assed investigation. I mean Parting even talked about it, so the Korean scene is definitely aware of this.
On January 22 2015 04:29 swissman777 wrote:
I personally don't care if pinnacle is one of the most reliable corporations. Without rock solid proof, none of us should even care to point fingers. Judging without clarity just makes things worse. Sure, a lot of us are new at this so we should listen to other people who supposedly know more, but our lack of knowledge is all the more reason not to do anything until everything is crystal clear.
Also, I would appreciate to see how pinnacle is a responsible website with actual sources or something because a lot of us probably never heard of this site. I skimmed the post and so far Swoopae is the only one trying hard to support the notion. Just trusting few liquipedia users is not enough for something of this scale and type.
Why don't you look up Pinnacle? They have an entire wikipedia page with links and everything at the bottom.
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San makes really really bad mistakes all the time guys, it's nothing new. Let's not bring up the time he blocked his own Nexus with the FFE.....
It would take overwhelming proof to show that game was fixed. I've seen people throw games way harder than San did in this PL match....
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Thanks @swoopae for the honesty and clarification. I hope this gets resolved quickly and that it ends up that San is just an innocent guy in all this, maybe swept up in this by accident.
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wow Swoopae is really intelligent and something did happen, i read the whole thing. I think that the betting patterns and numbers don't lie and someone knew privileged information.
San might not have lost on purpose and like Swoopae said and San also said on twitter the lack of practice might have been used by someone to make the bets.
I don't know but i could accept that San didn't know anything.
Trying to know who owns the accounts that made the bets will lead to the culprits
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On January 22 2015 04:00 dsousa wrote:
Then they could release the replay from the match.
The point is, San isn't the only one under question here.
If the NFL or any major sporting organization had its credibility questioned in regards to fixing, they would step up immediately to refute and address the issue. They wouldn't allow fans and potential fans to think their sport was compromised.
No response, is in a way, the loudest response of all.
No response from kespa could mean this is a lot bigger than just one player.
They should be taking this as an opportunity to re-assure the fans and to crack down on further corruption. Make a strong showing that they won't allow this to happen.
To do that they need to resolve the issue.
Pinnacle has made a strong accusation.
What is the response?
Wut? The NFL is dealing with a ball problem right now and they're only looking into it because it's the week before the Super Bowl. There are other stories coming out now about manipulating balls over the season and in past years and the NFL didn't care before. It appears even this time, the Patriots' biggest problem isn't that they "cheated" but that they initially denied doing it, i.e. they lied. Even though the NFL measured the balls at halftime and already knew they were underinflated.
There's not much to investigate here. San denied it and I don't think it's proper for Pinnacle to disclose the identity of bettors or other specifics about betting patterns, unless it turns out San himself or someone on the team was betting.
No response could just mean no response. No need to picnic - after all, they cancelled the bet so nobody profited from this game.
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EPT
