EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LII - Page 15
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IAmRobik
United States5878 Posts
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 19 2014 06:55 IAmRobik wrote: Dude...it was nearing the end of the day, but there were people around and I thought they would see the light and vote for the obvious mafia instead of the obvious town. Unfortunately, you had your blinders on because of how he focused on you to change your mind. That's not my fault. That's yours. If you were so sure of Cavalihno being an obvious town why did you vote for me instead of voting Tolkien which was the way you could save the obvious town? especially since you were the last one to vote. | ||
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IAmRobik
United States5878 Posts
On February 19 2014 09:16 N1k0 wrote: @Amiko ill try to respond to your post in about 1~2 hours when im able to dedicate enough time. If you were so sure of Cavalihno being an obvious town why did you vote for me instead of voting Tolkien which was the way you could save the obvious town? especially since you were the last one to vote. I'll respond to this after the night phase if I'm still alive. There's no way I'm discussing anything about anything during the night. Giving mafia an idea of who I think is scummy and townie to enable them to lead a lynch on someone who the majority of the town finds scummy is stupid stupid town play. If you want to talk about the weather, I can do that. If you want me to claim that I'm a cop with a vest and a shot, who can also save people, I can do that as well. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Day Two IAmRobik was minding his own business, when he was suddenly stabbed by White Power Bill. IAmRobik the vanilla townie has been killed. You have to decide the next lynch. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
Regarding your analysis Amiko, you left out that I also could have saved Cavalinho as well. My four options at the time were: 1) Switch onto Cavalinho (fairly pointless as he was going to die) 2) Vote for myself (if I felt that the lynch on Cavalinho and N1k0 were unwarranted enough, and that I really did feel OnceKing was scum) 3) Vote for N1K0 4) Maintain my effective non-vote My read on Cavalinho was trending towards scummy because of his close-to-lynch posts and other things I’ve noted. N1k0 did have discrepancies in his first post, but I maintain my policy that it’s still better not to lynch lurkers until Day 2, and I was less sure of Cavalinho’s green flip then N1k0 at the time. The case was brought up near the end of Day 1, and we wouldn’t have much to go on if it was just a green flip: then we would very likely lynch Cavalinho because of it, and we’d be down 2 players. NIGHT 1 READS On Lurkers At this stage, I feel both Valenius is the “scummiest” lurkers and most likely to be mafia out of the pool. He voted IAmRobik, when no real case was brought up against him unlike against myself or Cavalinho (or switch on N1k0’s late case), and is really just a random OMGUS vote. It really reads inconsistent here, since he didn’t vote Cavalinho when it was brought up (stating he can’t read me or Amiko). Beneather raised the point with his vote, and I would have a look at the filter. I’m opening his case up as a lynch target come Day 2, and I feel much better about bringing up a case against him than against N1K0 at this time. N1k0’s case is out there, and I’m not commenting on it further, as I don’t think the situation has changed all that much, despite Cavalinho’s green flip. While it's compelling to pursue further, it's not enough for a case I feel. theDragoon’s vote reads as a confused town; still reads town, but the vote justification was WTF? Beneather similarly reads town to me despite his sparse posts, and IAmRobik reads super town to me now, especially considering his night posts (and steering me away from some potentially disastrous suggestions). On Day 1Active Participants At this stage, I don’t think at this stage any of us are mafia, unless the GF has done a masterful job blending in, and likely won. I’ll explain below. I’m dropping the case on OnceKing with his posts and convo with me close to the end of the Day 1 phase, now that I've had time to mull them over from a less heated standpoint. The issue I had which made me jump on him and view him as scum were the multiple minor details he was bringing up in his initial case on me; it felt like grasping for straws, so to speak. I am still going to be critical of his posts for inconsistencies and when his posts are far too aggressive like that. I’m also withdrawing the double lynch proposal, because it’s too dangerous now in Day 2 in the POSSIBILITY there are 3 mafia members (doubt it, but even with 2 it gives far too little margin of error), in conjunction with my change of read on him. To explain my change and initial read of "moderate town or godfather (I think?)": I was jaded by a past experience of an active mafia member gunning for me and others Day 1 based on meaningless “tells” (I ended up getting him with a double lynch proposal, with him lynched first, but since there was no flips in the setup, I got lynched next turn and mafia won because I forgot that there was the possibility of a second one, so the gambit failed). This is incidentally why theDragoon’s vote justification confused me. I’m still going to be more critical of cases you bring up for now on, but I’m now fairly certain you’re town. IAmRobik currently speaks town talk. He corrected my Night 1 mistakes quickly and decisively, and nipped them from going further and clogging up discussion (this is my first online mafia, so I wasn’t sure how to proceed at Night). And since he started contributing, he's contributed fairly well, and gave honest reads, even with some scant justification at times. This is why I think bringing up lurkers as lynch targets very early was questionable policy. Amiko, despite his mislynch case on Cavalinho, still feels town, as the premature analysis he posted was solid for a preliminary post, and it stands as a definite contribution to town for us to further analyze vote patterns against reads. He reads fairly solidly town to me. Appended section based on Night Actions I am slightly surprised that they didn’t decide to kill OnceKing. It would be a clear way to implicate me, as I am currently most peoples’ scummiest read (or perhaps it’s too obvious), but the way IAmRobik was trending, he was shaping to be a strong town. Alternately, they could’ve done the same with me since I didn’t call off the double-lynch beforehand, but that would be eliminating a potential Day 2 lynch target entirely. The frustrating part is that I don’t think it gives us much to go on. Both of the votes on N1k0 are dead, but it might just be mafia exploiting the situation to get a mislynch going. Robik’s night posts were drawn out by my own and Amiko’s posts, however, so we are both culpable here (though he did start shaping up to be someone who was actively shaping discussion away from continued Day 1 shenanigans). I don’t think Amiko was baiting IAmRobik into posting further during night, given the length of his post suggests he was writing it before he saw my and Robik’s exchange. In hindsight, I think I was the one doing that. It is entirely possible that one of us is mafia (if you take this line of approach, I should be more scummy because I threw the first stone, so to speak). The alternate possibility is that it was done to cast us in a negative light, and I will leave it up to you guys to weigh it yourselves, or think of other possibilities. It may also be that Robik was onto good leads, but there’s not much we can say about that. The case on N1K0 is still valid. I’m not sure what else we can draw from it. Comments, criticisms? I'm putting together the Valenius case soon (tm). | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 19 2014 13:49 Lord Tolkien wrote: Regarding your analysis Amiko, you left out that I also could have saved Cavalinho as well. Basically, because of the vote split, anyone could have voted to save Cavalinho by moving their vote (including Cavalinho! Actually, I'll put a quick comment on that below). So, I only looked at the three people who I felt gave a stronger town read on Cavalinho (theDragoon, IAmRobik, and Valenius) so could reasonably be expected to try to vote to save him. For you, I felt your read was somewhat town, somewhat scum, so it wasn't inconsistent for you to vote against him. I wanted to get some reads off of Robik's response because I did think it was weird he didn't move his vote and therefore suspicious. Frankly, I figured it was just that he hadn't considered the possibility, but it was a good thing to pressure him on. That might sound like under-reading Robik, but this is why I mention Cavalinho's vote again. Cavalinho could have saved himself by moving his vote (to Tolkien) and he didn't. If I were in his position, I think I would have moved my vote to Tolkien - Cavalinho knew he was town and didn't know Tolkien's alignment. In other words, Cavalinho didn't play as he should have from his point of view, but it seems likely that's just because he didn't read how tied votes worked. -- I'll go through the rest of your post tomorrow afternoon Tolkien and try see if anything in Robik's activity brings me more to think about. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
1) His first relevant post to go off my quick note that we don't have an innocent child for an early town confirmation (while I was first stepping into Amiko's post), into a discussion about town roles that I participated in. 2) His first contribution when pushed for a read amounted to agreeing with me about not lynching lurkers early, and making a comment about me nothing Amiko's spreadsheet, nor contributed anything interesting of note on Amiko. The biggest point of note is why he thought IAmRobik was scum based on his 2 posts prior, the first was inconsequential, and the second directing us away from not to talk about role breakdown. It's an odd gut feeling to have based on his posts (I made the same comment with Cavalinho about his early suspicions of IAmRobik). 3) His next post of note is + Show Spoiler + Not particularly, although I'm unsure on the argument for not checking the active players. If some of the active players are in fact mafia, they could lead the game to a mafia win easier than I think the lurkers could. However, as with the lynching discussion, checking lurkers could be better due to getting better reads from those who are posting frequently. 4) I really do think he's just been too non-committal this phase, and his contributions have been far more negligible than other "lurkers", despite having more posts. I would like comments and criticisms about this analysis. He's the scummiest I've got, and I figured I needed to raise the case. At the very least, to get him to be active. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I wanted to see how people responded to my point on Robik's vote to press reads, then point to Cavalinho's play to explain why I didn't read Robik's vote as a strongly scummy. But maybe the comments would have indicated something. Writing this really reaffirms my feeling that we need to ensure we have a less split vote today. When there's only 1-2 votes on people, a single vote can spare almost anyone, and mafia probably has at least two votes to use. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
Cavalinho noted that he wasn't changing his vote (he was heading to the gym), and that by then, he was fairly certain all the active players in the thread were not scum. That is why he did not vote for me, and looked at N1k0 (and drew my attention to him). I've at this point reached the same conclusion as well, and that we should be looking at lurkers. My guess is that two of the lurkers are mafia and watched us fruitlessly scumhunt (why I'm not a fan of Day 1 lynch cases), and the scummiest reads there that I have are Valenius and N1K0, in that order. Even if there is one among the active participants (I don't think that's very likely anymore), I have utter conviction that two out of three are mafia given our stances on the Amiko case, and my and OnceKing's spat. It may be masterful play if two of us were able to pull it off to throw everyone off their game (in which case, I think that you two have won the game already). In this case, I feel the best play is to look at lurkers, because I'm fairly certain there's at least 1-2 in a pool of 4, and a 0-1 chance in a pool of 3. Better odds, so to speak. I'm still an open lynch target though if you guys feel like it. I don't think OnceKing is scum anymore (most likely), however and I don't feel that a Day 2 lynch of myself is going to reveal info if I turn up Green (which was why I was fine with being lynched Day 1). | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
Valenius lists his town and mafia reads. The part that struck out to me was his mafia read on IAmRobik and his reason behind it, which he said was “just a gut feeling”. His posts after that are targeted towards Robik since he thought that Valenius was super scummy. He then votes for Robik but I have yet to see his reason for wanting to lynch Robik other than Robik calling him scum. Rather than looking for other scum, Valenius has complete tunnel vision on Robik, not sure if it’s because he panicked that Robik got an accurate read on him or he just OMGUS. I would really like to hear Valenius’ reason to keep his vote on Robik, despite not having a sufficient argument for his scum read. Also, Lord Tolkien made a good point with this: Both of the votes on N1k0 are dead, but it might just be mafia exploiting the situation to get a mislynch going. With a mafia read on Valenius, it makes sense that Robik was their target for the night kill. Val’s vote on Robik didn’t gain traction and they saw the opportunity to implicate N1k0 with a mislynch since both players who voted him are now dead. This would also suggest that N1k0 is town if Val is mafia. If Val and N1k0 are scum partners then I don’t think they would have shot Robik since it makes N1k0 look very suspicious.As of now my strongest scum read is Valenius. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
:< Can't even make a Bear of the Moon quip in TLOLOTGD. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
Can you clarify this part of your post: I have utter conviction that two out of three are mafia given our stances on the Amiko case, and my and OnceKing's spat. It may be masterful play if two of us were able to pull it off to throw everyone off their game (in which case, I think that you two have won the game already). In this case, I feel the best play is to look at lurkers, because I'm fairly certain there's at least 1-2 in a pool of 4, and a 0-1 chance in a pool of 3. Better odds, so to speak. It may be late and I'm just tired but I'm having a hard time understanding what you're trying to say there. Specifically the bold part because at the first part it sounds like you're talking as mafia then the part with brackets sound like you're talking town. Also, is it pretty much guaranteed that it's 2 mafia rather than 3? With 7 players remaining it would be difficult to win the game 4v3. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
The parenthesis is just me noting that I currently doubt Amiko and OnceKing are working together in this (but if they were, they've probably won since town isn't likely to lynch both of them). This is a POSSIBLE scenario, but I don't think it's REALISTIC. At most, there's 1 mafia among the three of us, and I think our pool is entirely town at this point. This is why I think we should be going after Day 1 lurkers today (where all my scummy reads are currently). There's at least 1 mafia there, maybe 2. If there are 3 mafia, they win with one mislynch and a nightkill. I dont think there are 3 mafia, but that's irrelevant atm. | ||
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OnceKing
United States939 Posts
Let's consider the events and spread of votes from the previous day. The largest argument of the day was between LT and me. Let's think about what a player of each alignment would do at this point in the game. A town member would either back a side if he believed one of us to be scum, or if he believed neither of us to be scum would voice his dissatisfaction with our argument. In fact, there's no reason for a town member not to have something to say about it! On the other hand, if one of LT and I were mafia, then a mafia member would attempt to subtly back a side and cause a mislynch, then go "whoops! I thought he was mafia!". Consider, however, the scenario in which LT and I are both town. Then the mafia sits back and watches the circus. So the question here is, who avoids the topic? Valenius does, as does Beneather. Here's what Valenius had to say: On February 18 2014 04:57 Valenius wrote: [...] LT/Amiko would be my other choices, and as I stated I cant get a solid read on LT, so i'm avoiding the LT/Amiko vote for the moment. [...] That's it. He completely avoids taking sides on the topic and I think with how much LT and I were posting one can only have strong opinions about our alignments at this point in the game. Instead he votes for IAmRobik because IAmRobik called some of his posts useless, and from a "gut feel". Beneather also confusingly stated that he didn't think LT was mafia, and then tries to discredit him. He does however come back with what I believe to be a reasonable case on Valenius, so as much as I hate consensus so early in the day I'm going to have to agree that Valenius is the most suspicious and I need to hear more from him. But wait! Why can't he get a solid read on LT? As he says himself... [...] There's enough posts by the 'main' bunch so far to provide reads as the game progresses. I can't get a solid read on LT. [...] | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 18 2014 10:45 Beneather wrote: As the deadline comes closer, the scummiest person that I have read so far is Valenius, he doesn't contribute anything to town's efforts of deciding on a scum and just posts nothing of actual value. He brings up IamRobik and votes him but does not bring any reasons except that IamRobik has a problem with Valenius' posts, which is not a solid argument. I believe that Valenius might be scum because he is just posting things that look like it has contributions but in all honesty have no value. They are just restating the post and not providing any information and also has a lot of side tracking in it. As far as right now I believe that Valenius is mafia. A lot of his posts are just him defending himself but not bring any value to the discussion. That seems very scummy, just showing up for the occasional defending but then disappear before attracting too much attention and just sit back and watch town try to lynch each other. ##VOTE Valenius I don't really have a strong scum read on Beneather because he's posted so little, so there's definitely better lynch targets than him. N1k0 has slightly more analysis than Beneather and some parts do look towny, but some are a little bit scummy. In particular I found that his mentioning of Amiko being godfather was rather scummy (which I previously mentioned) but says later that Amiko's posts swayed him towards a town read on Amiko. He was wrong about his scum read on Cav though, but he does make a decent argument for it. I'm waiting for his next post where he says he'll reply to Amiko, but as of now I'm not getting a strong scum read on him. I've already mentioned my thoughts on Valenius and with OnceKing and LT making their case against him, it's only made my scum read on him stronger. He's also posted very little value despite his number of posts. At this point, I think we need to start looking for scum pairs, if we get the right lynch today it might give us a lot of information on who to lynch on day 3. ##Vote Valenius | ||
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OnceKing
United States939 Posts
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On my previous post I said I don't have a strong scum read on Beneather but if Valenius flips red I started thinking about his most likely partners and Beneather looks to be the most logical choice. If you read through Val's filter, a lot of it his him asking Robik why he thinks Val is scummy. Val also voted for Robik because he pretty much didn't like Robik's read on him. However, Val never mentions Beneather at all despite Beneather actually having a solid case, and an actual vote on him. I was a bit hesitant to make this connection because I thought if they were mafia teammates then Beneather wouldn't have such a solid case against his partner. So the question is, why did Val OMGUS Robik, who didn't have a solid case against him and ignored the only guy with a real case on him with Beneather? My guess is they planned this to keep themselves apart, to eliminate any possible connections between each other. Beneather knows that Val won't get lynched since he was mainly off town's radar and votes for him so that it's less likely that we make the connection between the two. Another thing to note is that neither of the two jumped on any of the possible bandwagons on day 1: Cavalinho, Lord Tolkien, and N1k0. Again, this supports the idea of them trying to distance themselves away from each other, and with the lack of a bandwagon it makes it easy for them to just watch town go at each other. The three way tie between Cavalinho, LT and N1k0 was also in their favor since any one of the three being lynched results in a mislynch for us. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
First point: Wtf does OMGUS'ing mean? My read on IAmRobik: Robik, from my view came from pretty much nowhere. He’d had a very quiet game until mid-day 2. He then brings out that my first post (Good evening, I'm heading to bed now, UK Time (03:00), see you all in a bit!) was super scummy. Nobody else had even mentioned this post, the point was completely out of the blue. Following this, his read on theDragoon’s post (Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow) is that it’s the scummiest post in all of the pages so far. The early voting was pretty funny, nothing was really said there. It was started by a joke.. from Robik himself. The first posts, up until the face of george michael were pointless. The post’s of people just messing around at the start of day 1. To actively claim two of the scummiest posts in the whole thread were made around that sequence.. that’s a ridiculous read to be basing off of. His two previous posts’ (Serious posts, i’m ignoring his earlier ones) were On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing, That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? & On February 17 2014 06:19 IAmRobik wrote: Let's not talk about roles There are maximum 3 maf In my opinion pretty scummy. The first post in my view is akin to lighting a firework in a room, and running away. There was absolutely no follow up of any kind. The second post, dissuading my inquest into game setup (Note: Not role setup, game setup) was just dismissing my question. As i’ve stated since, my question wasn’t an aim to dig out roles of people, but to find out the Mafia/Town setup. I still disagree with those of you that say this isn’t important. 3 Mafia: If we mislynch tonight, we lose. 2 Mafia: There’s another day. Behaviour patterns. If you’re looking for 3 mafia, and trying to make connections between 3 players, and it turns out there’s only 2.. your whole analysis of player relations will be off.The same is true for the other situation. Next: His point on my posts only being about uninteresting stuff and game setup. I didn’t take part in the early mess of random accusations, partly due to timezone, partly due to not being a fan of it. As i’ve stated before (getting sick of typing this now), my questions were short and answerable with a one-line answer, with no more discussion related to the question needed. I’d probably have brought up my thoughts on 2 or 3 man mafia later into day 1, if i’d have gotten an answer. Maybe i should’ve ‘mod question’d’ the question. I do actually agree with his next point, regarding lynching for information. It’s a point i’ve expanded on further down. Again, his response to my question on game knowledge: He stated it’s standard forum mafia setup and his post read to me as if he was annoyed I didn’t understand that. I’d discussed other things at that stage (incl my reads), yet again brought me up for discussing game mechanics (2 posts..). Again, as i’ve stated above, not caring about how many mafia there are is reckless. His next point following on from n1k0’s post. On February 18 2014 03:49 IAmRobik wrote: n1k0 spoke up and everyone shut down. This leads me to believe that n1k0 is town. Mafia are Tolkien and Valenius. GGWP town wins. This was posted less than an hour following n1k0’s post. As i’m writing this, it’s been 2hours 30 since the last post (Onceking’s Feb 18, 03:56). Time is almost irrelevant. It’s a stupid point, and to use that to suggest i’m definitely Mafia? None of you would have any issues with that were the situations reversed? + Show Spoiler [Read this in regards to underlined par…] + I’ve underlined the above section, as it was what I was originally going to post. However, having had another scan further down page 14.. I completely misread his ‘play’ for that post. Apologies Robik, that was on a different level than I was running at. If, going ahead we assume that Robik was indeed supermafiaplayer, his vote stayed on n1k0. Finally, my vote on Robik. I’ll admit, by the stage my vote went on I was already having a mafia vibe from Robik, and his following posts did little to dissuade that feeling. My ‘gut feeling’ was mostly what i’ve put into words above. I’ll apologise, but I tried to but this into words during the argument, but my brain was turning to mush. I couldn’t formulate words that accurately represented my reads. If i’d have had a stronger read at the time, I’d have moved it to them. I didn’t. LT/Amiko were my other choices at the time, but neither read was strong enough. IAmRobik’s death: Robik, if you’re reading this: Sorry for misreading you. Come the end of the game, you’ll feel the same way about me! However, everyone else: Answer this honestly. I’m the only one to have a vote on Robik. Cavalinho had one earlier, but moved it away, leaving me as the sole-voter for Robik. If I were mafia, choosing to kill Robik would be almost suicidal. I haven’t played particularly well through Day 1, so having the same level of discussion (see above point re: gut feeling) would be akin to stabbing myself through the heart, after writing you a note confessing to being mafia. I like to think of myself as a reasonably smart guy, not the smartest, but enough to avoid stabbing myself through the heart. It’s something i’ve managed to avoid so far in my life. I don’t know who stands to benefit most from implicating me in the Death, but i’d probably choose to look at someone who’s stood in the back and let others accuse me Day2. Town read on Cavalinho: My read on Cavalinho was correct, as stated in my post.. Feb 18, 04:34 Other Thoughts: Tolkien, I really think the the suggestion of formal lynching is pretty scummy. In a face to face game it works fine, or if we had.. idk, week long day's it would be possible. Today for example, as much as I had planned for this week to be empty, unavoidable stuff crops up that delays me from posting for ~ 8 hours. In that time, unless anybody brings up another vote, as you suggested at the end of your post (multiple cases), it’s a ridiculously easy stall for the mafia.[spoiler = Post I'm referring to] On February 18 2014 12:32 Lord Tolkien wrote:I think at least we should agree to put an end to the OMGUS'ing, and adopt a formal system of lynching. We've got 24 hours, so we can definitely get it organized before tomorrow. If you think someone's mafia (or is worth investigating), put it up for a vote. After another player seconds, and we all collectively examine that person's filter, The person making the claim presents his case, the defendant presents his rebuttal, everyone gets to ask questions. Closing the case for the day can be done after there are no more questions, and after (say, 3-4 votes). We can keep multiple cases open at once, as well, perhaps. Any objections, or amendments to make? [/spoiler]Tolkien turned suspicious based on Cavalinho’s analysis, which he had previously agreed with. See: Cavalinho’s Checking Strategy Post (Feb 17, 08:33). theDragoon had a solid town read on Cavalinho, which clearly turned out to be true. Solid enough to let it affect his judgement of n1k0. theDragoon also notes his suspicions of Lord Tolkien (Feb 18, 09:45), over his talk on specific blue roles. Note: My earlier comments about game setup were not role-directed, only total Mafia/Town numbers. I listed all of the possible roles in one of my posts, more as a confirmation to myself than a discussion point: I’ve made this defense several times so far, when questioned on it. Tolkien’s post following last night (Feb 19, 13:49). You stated that my vote on Robik was when no real case was brought up against me. Then, in your discussion on arguments with OnceKing you stated the issue you had were the multiple minor details he was bringing up ‘Grasping for straws’. This is the same reason which made me vote him. His original read on my scummy-ness was because I went to bed at 3:00am when the game started. Just wtf. Amiko In your post listing off posts where IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town, you’ve included one where he agrees with your analysis of Cavalinho, early-ish in Day 1. Your reads from that post are that Cavalinho was scummy. Did you include this post in the hopes no one would read it, and to pad out your post ? What’s your reason for lying about the content of that post? N1k0 How on earth you’ve got away with posting as little as you have so far is beyond me. Your reads on both Cavalinho and IAmRobik were horrendously wrong. For record: Believed Cavalinho was the most likely red in the game. Believed IAmRobik was not a vanilla townie. My reads on IAmRobik were based on what i’ve discussed earlier, his jumping on me when.. please correct me if i’m wrong.. there wasn’t a massive amount of suspicion on me at the time. I also massively disagree with your assumption that Amiko is town, because of his driving conversation then fading away. Amiko received an enormous amount of pressure due to his early posts, it seems reasonably logical that he’d step out of the driving seat with that pressure. Could you please clarify the wording on this following quote? Are you referring to LT or OK, when saying your wrong? I presume OK, but it changes my read on that sentence. OnceKing I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town. In the possible scenario that i'm wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone. Still on n1k0. In your response to Tolkiens questions about your first real post you brought up that LT saying what good could come out of his lynch.. on Day1, with an undetermined amount of mafia, no. That’s not a good town play, by either of you. Following a lynch policy for 2 days, also allows for 2 mafia kills, leading to a total of 4 kills. Assuming one of you were mafia; You’ve either got 4:1 (initially 2 mafia) or 3:2 (initially 3 mafia. The 4:1 isn’t bad odds, and wouldn’t be a terrible solution. 3:2 would be ridiculous, going to lynch wrong and lose based on day 1 assumptions.. in what world is that good odds? Assuming neither of you were mafia, and you both had bad reads.. the game’s practically over. 3:2 (initial 2 mafia), or Dead start of night two (initial 3 mafia). 1 in 4 of those situations is one that i’d choose to be in. N1k0, if you’re agreeing with his post you either didn't think the numbers through, or blindly thought he was posting something logical and went along with it. Either way, it’s pretty scummy. Tolkien. you’ve been reasonably smart throughout so far, did you not run the numbers? This and your much earlier carelessness for lynching Amiko “at this point it doesnt matter” are showing you as very lynch-happy. If you’re bluffing and hoping the “I’ll martyr myself” post for lynchings was a town move, it isn’t. I’m disappointed I didn’t pick up on it earlier. Amiko’s read on OnceKing’s dissatisfaction on Cavalinho’s response to pressure. I happen to agree with OnceKing’s post, so therefore disagree with Amiko’s assessment of the situation. OK’s other paragraph is also one that I agree with. N1k0 has barely contributed, Robik’s statement that he had was wierd. OnceKing. Whilst looking through your above post, it’s come to me that you’ve been ending a lot of your posts with questions deflecting away to other players, without massively answering them yourself. I believe your town at this stage, and you seem to have reasonable leads. You’re reading people better than I seem to be, so start posting hard-hitting questions directed at those people.. not just questions to the room. Beneather. You’ve posted two posts that have any relevance to the game. In my view, everything else you try to claim with regards to my lack of useful posting is invalid. Your ‘reads’ post is the most re-hashed post so far. You’ve done exactly what others have brought people up for; discussing specific roles. Everything in your accusation post (except specifics on Robik) could be turned back on yourself, and even amplified to say you’ve actually made no contributions at all. Top-Reads Mafia: N1k0, and then depending on 2 or 3 man mafia: Amiko/Beneather (In no order). Town: OnceKing, theDragoon. | ||
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