Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions. The objective of the game is to lynch or kill all mafia members before they outnumber the rest of the town. It's much like a game of poker because mafia members are also part of the town during the day and may manipulate the vote to their liking. If the mafia at any time outnumber or equal the townspeople, they win. The town's goal is to lynch all the members of the mafia.
The game is typically very active, so the thread will get big quickly. However, it is essential to read the thread to play the game. If you do not have the time or patience to read the whole thread, do not play. I will not compensate for ignorance.
Rules:
Cheating: Cheating includes (but is not limited to): 1. Posting after death. You may have one polite goodbye post, but it may not contain any potentially game-changing information. 2. Ruining the game by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town. 3. Logging on to someone else's account to get their role or looking over someone's shoulder to get their role. 4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles. 5. Posting screenshots of your inbox. 6. Posting or sharing any PM you receive from a host. 7. Getting yourself modkilled to help your team. Your non-majority-decided death may not be used as a bargaining chip. 8. Signing up more than once using smurf accounts. 9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits. 10. Sharing accounts with other players unless cleared by the host in advance. Otherwise, only you may post on your account.
Cheating is not tolerated here. The punishment will be severe.
Posting:
Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Activity: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Smurfs: No smurfs in here. This is a newbie game!
Spam: Spam is not tolerated, nor is any off-topic material. Do not discuss Proleague here. Do not talk about Starcraft II here. Play Mafia here. This also means you should condense your posts when possible. 15 one-liners in 30 minutes is unacceptable.
Encryption: Don't do it.
Editing: Editing is not allowed for any reason. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be modkilled. This is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again using the acronym (EBWOP: Edit by way of posting) if you want to clarify/correct something you just posted.
Inappropriate posts: If you want to post something insulting or inappropriate and know the TL mods would have a problem with it elsewhere, don't post it here. If you do, a host will warn you or modkill you and request that you be banned from future games. The hosts have the final say on what is inappropriate. If you do not like how someone is talking to you, please PM a host, GMarshal, or Mig before involving the TL staff. If you are unsatisfied with how the situation is resolved, then you can appeal to the TL staff normally.
Reporting posts: The report button is a nice feature for regular TL, but not for this forum. We prefer to deal with things in house if possible to avoid confusion among the TL staff. If you have a problem with how someone is posting, talk to the host, co-host, GMarshal, or Mig before using your report button. Please do not use your report button for anything other than inappropriate posts which you feel are not being dealt with adequately.
Ban discussions: Please wait until this game is over to talk about modkills and bans resulting from this game.
Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. However, this does not mean that you should try to win by being a jerk to the other players so they all want to quit playing.
This also means that you cannot leave the game without a good reason without a ban. These situations will be dealt with on a case by case basis. PM me or the co-hosts if you need to leave the game.
You have been warned.
Voting rules:
This game uses plurality lynch. The player with most votes at deadline will be lynched. 1. Voting is done in this thread. Please keep votes there, and only vote there. Do not PM me your vote. 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote: Promethelax. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I or my co-hosts will update vote counts whenever we get the chance. 3. If you change your vote, please ##Unvote before posting another vote (can be done in the same post). 4. No conditional voting. 5. You may not vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. 6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.
Signups:
This game is open to players with 3 or fewer games on TL Mafia. Signups will remain open until the game is full. If you have played more but a long time ago, I might accept. Type /in if you want to play. Please be sure to check back to the thread regularly so that you are aware that the game has begun.
Game-specific rules:
Modkills: This game follows the TL Mafia Ban List. If you are modkilled, your punishment will go beyond being eliminated from this game. Please refer to it for questions about your punishment. If you want to use this game to sit out your ban, please PM Flamewheel or post in the Ban List.
Replacements This game uses replacements. Replacements will be made until Day 3. If a player is modkilled, they will be replaced by a player on the replacement list if possible. Type /replace if you want to be put on the replacement list. Replacements have to fulfill the same criteria as people who want to play (aka 3 games or fewer on TL Mafia).
Clues: There are no clues.
PMs PMs are not allowed in this game. No out-of-thread communication of any sort is allowed unless cleared by the hosts. Scum will be provided a QT to communicate in, as will Masons, Hydras or shadowing players.
Time Cycle: This game will follow a 24 hour night/48 hour day-cycle. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. Currently the deadline is 03:00 GMT (+00:00), but that is subject to change. Actions/votes will be accepted up to and including the posted time, but not after.
Credits: This post shamefully stolen from NMM LI (with slight modifications) Thanks to pretty much every TL mafia player/host/mod/etc.
On February 20 2013 21:59 Acrofales wrote:
Newbie-specific stuff
1.It's already in the rules, but remember, no editing. If you feel you must correct your post, please make a second post to clarify your statements. You may put EBWOP ("Edit by way of post," a handy acronym invented by semioldguy) at the beginning of your post to indicate that you are clearing up a point you made. If your EBWOP post is several posts after your original, please quote your original post in your EBWOP post for the sake of clarity.
2. Only sign up if you know you will have the time available to properly play the game. It is essential that players remain active in a newbie game, so only /in if you are able to play to your fullest.
3. If there is any sort of issue, you are unsure about some mechanic, or you are just wondering if your devilish scheme is even allowed, feel free to PM me, or ask in-thread with green text. Don't feel shy; these games are meant to be a place to learn and be open.
4. Behave as gentlemen (or ladies). Things get heated here, but personal attacks will not be acceptable, and will be dealt with accordingly. Remember, this is a game; have fun and happy scumhunting!
5. Please do not talk about any ongoing games either in-game or pre-game. This can affect other games and is unacceptable. Please do not refer to outside-of- thread activity of players in this thread.
6. If you receive coaching, don't tell town about it.
Setup Information: This is a semi-open set-up meaning that while all of the roles possible will be displayed the number of each role in game is unknown. The mafia team has one factional kp per night that cannot be roleblocked.
Town win condition: Eliminate all of the anti-town players. Mafia win condition: Eliminate all of the non-mafia players or reach a scenario where nothing can stop it from happening.
Vote races: In case the game would be decided by a vote race, the day is skipped and the endgame is resolved by the next set of night actions.
Welcome to Newbie Mini Mafia LII. You are Ann...or was it Yam? I don't really remember. Either way, you're not very important. As a Vanilla Townie, you only have your vote. Make sure to wear your promise ring so you don't forget! You win with town. X will serve as your coach. You may PM them to discuss the game, however you may not reveal the identity of your coach or reference any discussions you have with them in the thread. Good luck!
Welcome to Newbie Mini Mafia LII. You are a professional strip...err I mean Hot Cop. As the Town Cop, each night phase you may investigate target player to see if they've been dirty. If they have, you may need to teach them a lesson. You will get results back in the form of Town or Mafia. You win with town. X will serve as your coach. You may PM them to discuss the game, however you may not reveal the identity of your coach or reference any discussions you have with them in the thread. Good luck!
Welcome to Newbie Mini Mafia LII. You are Tobias Fünke and you are blue! Literally. Combining your skills as an analyst and therapist you hold the honor of being the world's first analrapist. As the Town Doctor, once per night, you may protect a player from one nightkill. Neither player will receive a notification if a player is saved. Just be sure that guy isn't sleeping before you try to perform CPR! You win with town. X will serve as your coach. You may PM them to discuss the game, however you may not reveal the identity of your coach or reference any discussions you have with them in the thread. Good luck!
Welcome to Newbie Mini Mafia LII. You are the Magicians' Alliance, the Town Roleblocker. You demand to be taken seriously. As a result, you have the ability to shut down performances without your approval. Once per night, you may roleblock target player, preventing them from using a night action. Players are notified if they are roleblocked. You win with town. X will serve as your coach. You may PM them to discuss the game, however you may not reveal the identity of your coach or reference any discussions you have with them in the thread. Good luck!
Welcome to Newbie Mini Mafia LII. You are Rita Leeds, the Innocent Child from Wee Britain. At the start of the game, you will be confirmed town by a mod post. Say Hello to Mr.F for me. You win with town. X will serve as your coach. You may PM them to discuss the game, however you may not reveal the identity of your coach or reference any discussions you have with them in the thread. Good luck!
Welcome to Newbie Mini Mafia LII. You are Franklin Delano Bluth, the wise-cracking African American puppet and Town Vigilante. We wouldn't want to break any racial stereotypes, so you have a gun and may shoot people at night. Once per game at night, you may shoot target player. You win with town. X will serve as your coach. You may PM them to discuss the game, however you may not reveal the identity of your coach or reference any discussions you have with them in the thread. Good luck!
Welcome to Newbie Mini Mafia LII. You are Buster Bluth, Town Veteran. As a former member of the army, you've managed to survive the most gruesome of injuries, even if it may cost you a limb. Once per game, you will survive the first night hit that you are targeted with. Watch out for that loose seal. You win with town. X will serve as your coach. You may PM them to discuss the game, however you may not reveal the identity of your coach or reference any discussions you have with them in the thread. Good luck!
Welcome to Newbie Mini Mafia LII. You are Annyong, the Mafia Goon.
Lucille Bluth: Annyong? Annyong: Annyong. Buster: Annyong? Annyong: Annyong. But my real name is Hello. Buster: Hello? Annyong: Annyong.
As the Bluth's adopted Korean child, you've vowed to get revenge for your family's stolen banana stand. Even though you're not a US citizen, we'll still give you a vote. You win with Mafia. X will serve as your coach. You may PM them to discuss the game, however you may not reveal the identity of your coach or reference any discussions you have with them in the thread. The mafia team consists of Y and Z. The mafia qt is -redacted- Good luck!
Welcome to Newbie Mini Mafia LII. You are Bob Loblaw, the Mafia Roleblocker. Once per night, you may roleblock target player, preventing them from using a night action. Players are notified if they are roleblocked. Remember: why should you go to jail for a crime someone else noticed? You win with Mafia. X will serve as your coach. You may PM them to discuss the game, however you may not reveal the identity of your coach or reference any discussions you have with them in the thread. The mafia team consists of Y and Z. The mafia qt is -redacted- Good luck!
Welcome to Newbie Mini Mafia LII. You are Hermano, the Mafia Godfather. Who is this mysterious individual? The world may never know. You appear town to all Cop investigations. You win with Mafia. X will serve as your coach. You may PM them to discuss the game, however you may not reveal the identity of your coach or reference any discussions you have with them in the thread. The mafia team consists of Y and Z. The mafia qt is -redacted- Good luck!
We are currently looking for coaches. Coaches will provide a brief post-game analysis to their assigned players with tips for improvement. Coaches Scum: marvellosity Town: iamperfection, Balla24, raynpelikoneet
On January 18 2014 00:11 kitaman27 wrote: 2. Only sign up if you know you will have the time available to properly play the game. It is essential that players remain active in a newbie game, so only /in if you are able to play to your fullest.
How much time per day would you say is required to "properly" play the game?
On January 18 2014 00:11 kitaman27 wrote: 2. Only sign up if you know you will have the time available to properly play the game. It is essential that players remain active in a newbie game, so only /in if you are able to play to your fullest.
How much time per day would you say is required to "properly" play the game?
Probably at least an hour per day, though it can vary from game to game. You can problem check out one of the ongoing normal mini games to get an idea of how much reading is required per cycle.
Your typical normal mini generates about 10-20 pages of posts per 24 hours. The posts vary in length from very short to very long, but it probably takes 3-4 minutes to read a page of posts if you're trying to figure out what people mean. A newbie game will have fewer posts probably.
On February 05 2014 05:08 Amiko wrote: Are people revealed after they are night killed / lynched / modkilled?
I don't know if that is what 'clues' refers to, sorry
Yes, role and alignment will be revealed upon death.
Clue games are rare, but they involve "hints" being posted in the death flavor text that can be used to point you to the killer. For example, if you had a baseball player in your profile info, there may be a reference to your victim beaten to death by a bat. They aren't a part of this game, so you shouldn't have to worry about it.
Team Liquid's Mafia board looks legit. I'd like to get my feet wet.
I've got plenty of experience playing Mafia, but I've never played the forum version of it. Let's see how this shakes out. Also, is there anyone coaching the scum side? >.>
Team Liquid's Mafia board looks legit. I'd like to get my feet wet.
I've got plenty of experience playing Mafia, but I've never played the forum version of it. Let's see how this shakes out. Also, is there anyone coaching the scum side? >.>
There will be someone, coaches are not yet finalized but we have always had someone step forward to coach in the past and someone will do so in this game.
Team Liquid's Mafia board looks legit. I'd like to get my feet wet.
I've got plenty of experience playing Mafia, but I've never played the forum version of it. Let's see how this shakes out. Also, is there anyone coaching the scum side? >.>
There will be someone, coaches are not yet finalized but we have always had someone step forward to coach in the past and someone will do so in this game.
Wonderful. I'm not used to forum games so I really hope this pans out.
/coach town... dunno what the necessary criteria is for coaching anybody, but I wanna try my hand at it and it looks like you need more coaches unless iamp wants to do it all! :D
On February 09 2014 10:45 marvellosity wrote: yeah i'll coach scum 100% success rate coaching newbie scum teams = my credentials
Speaking as someone who was on one of those teams I can confirm that marv's coaching works. We didn't lose a single member, not even our token lurker: iamperfection.
On February 10 2014 13:46 Cavalinho wrote: Is the forum always this dead? It doesn't seem like anyone else wants to sign up.
A big part of this is the experimental shadow game currently running, eleven players with a minimum of two years experience on the site played a game and talked eleven newbies through their thought processes now those eleven newbies are playing a game and each of us is individually coaching one of them. those players are all signed up for that game and none of them have signed up for this game removing the current crop of slightly more experienced newbies from the pool. were that game not running this would fill much more quickly though newbie games are hard to predict since they rely on new players finding and being interested by mafia here on TL.
On February 10 2014 13:46 Cavalinho wrote: Is the forum always this dead? It doesn't seem like anyone else wants to sign up.
A big part of this is the experimental shadow game currently running, eleven players with a minimum of two years experience on the site played a game and talked eleven newbies through their thought processes now those eleven newbies are playing a game and each of us is individually coaching one of them. those players are all signed up for that game and none of them have signed up for this game removing the current crop of slightly more experienced newbies from the pool. were that game not running this would fill much more quickly though newbie games are hard to predict since they rely on new players finding and being interested by mafia here on TL.
Most if not all of the people in the current shadow game can't even play newbies anymore. But you're right, the last wave of newbies (that I was in) have mostly moved on from newbie games.
The current rate of newbies entering this forum is very low atm, I don't know why but it is what it is.
I created this google spreadsheet template for another game, but Prome told me it'd be cool to post it in here so you guys can use it now before your game starts:
I edited the spreadsheet for our game and make it auto-populate a few fields (so if you change names on the first sheet it will fill them out on the later days), if you see anything wrong let me know
Hmm, is it me or do the scripts disappear when you create a new copy of the sheet? I copied yours, and I see no scripts, i.e no automatic votecount, etc.
Seems like a big problem. I'll see if I can do anything later
EDIT: Oh yeah I know what happened. Give me a few minutes
EDIT: Okay, the template is updated. There is new stuff in the "Information" tab, and new instructions you need to follow for the automatic votecount to function. Yes, it's kind of a bummer, and may be complex work and shit. But well, it's Google's fault what can I do But hopefully, everything should be okay after you do
EDIT2: Amiko, I think you used formulas for people's names. This is all good, but it means you can't really "delete" people that died in new days. So in each new day you'll have EVERY player, even ones that died on D1/N1, etc. So, for instance, in Day 5, with just 4 players alive, you'll have 9 players instead. This might turn too confusing.
As time goes on, I'll try to improve the spreadsheet, and include that automatic naming system and all in a way that doesn't break anything. But for now, I think it's better to just copy+paste the names and not use those formulas (I think)
The game has begun! You must now determine the first lynch. Voting is mandatory and votes will be posted in the game thread. The cycle ends in . PM me if you have any questions. Good luck!.
I don't really know how to start a good discussion d1 but here is at least a little information me I can volunteer: This will be my first forum mafia game! I have read a few threads but I do not recognize any of the players in this game. I have played epicmafia sometimes and have watched a few streams (pope, ring, ello, koibu). I am townsided this game. I will be up for another hour or so tonight, but usually I do not post early in the mornings here though (US MST).
So far I like that Beneather asked about the modpost for innocent child! Thanks for remembering.
When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote
Alright guys, here's what I think -- Amiko is lookin' awfully shady.
Why? Look at his introductory post. What do you immediately note about it? Probably that it's huge (relative to the rest of the posts this game). So this by itself doesn't mean anything. But let's examine the contents of this post. Paragraph 1: Random stuff about not having played before, a random claim to be townie when no one asked, and other filler. Oh, and an excuse to be regularly inactive. This is all filler. Paragraph 2: Gives a list of inactives like three hours into the game and promises he'll be back after refusing to actually cast suspicion on anyone.
All in all, there's really no reason for this post to be so large and say so much fluff unless he's just trying to look helpful. ##VOTE Amiko
Man, I wanted to suggest murdering Amiko. You beat me to it. I think IAmRobik is a person of interest for his odd sense of spinelessness earlier, but we can cross that bridge when we come to it.
I think this early the only information we have is on ourselves - votes change too much to mean anything unless you give some kind of reasons for your actions. So I am glad to explain why I may vote for people (being idle) or the only town read I had at the time (Lord Tolkein asking about innocent child).
I don't like OneKing's reasoning for voting me, though - (1) you want to discourage long posts, which I think hurts town (2) you classify saying you are town as scumsided rather than neutral (3) you claim (probably joking) that you are clear, and (4) providing the time you shouldn't expect posts from me (morning MST) merely provides a time, I'm sure there are times you sleep/commute as well and I would like to know them so you don't have an excuse for silence down the line. That said, I think OnceKing is acting slightly townsided because he has at least started some discussion by giving a reason for his vote, even if it is misguided.
Moving forward, I see Cavalinho's post as scummy - Cavalinho, what were your reasons for wanting to lynch me? The same reasons as OnceKing, or is there anything else to add? If you wanted to suggest voting me, why not suggest it in your earlier post?
On February 17 2014 05:34 Amiko wrote: I think this early the only information we have is on ourselves - votes change too much to mean anything unless you give some kind of reasons for your actions. So I am glad to explain why I may vote for people (being idle) or the only town read I had at the time (Lord Tolkein asking about innocent child).
I don't like OneKing's reasoning for voting me, though - (1) you want to discourage long posts, which I think hurts town (2) you classify saying you are town as scumsided rather than neutral (3) you claim (probably joking) that you are clear, and (4) providing the time you shouldn't expect posts from me (morning MST) merely provides a time, I'm sure there are times you sleep/commute as well and I would like to know them so you don't have an excuse for silence down the line. That said, I think OnceKing is acting slightly townsided because he has at least started some discussion by giving a reason for his vote, even if it is misguided.
Moving forward, I see Cavalinho's post as scummy - Cavalinho, what were your reasons for wanting to lynch me? The same reasons as OnceKing, or is there anything else to add? If you wanted to suggest voting me, why not suggest it in your earlier post?
Because, quite frankly, I wasn't sure if I should have pursued your post due to this actually being a newbie game. I wasn't sure if real players would actually think like that in a gametype that emphasize newness.
But since I'm not the only one that thinks it, then I'm going to roll with the fact that this is probably the right path to go down.
Oh, and for the record, this argument doesn't come out of nowhere. It's brought up in Ver's Mafia XXX guide at the top of the forum; Misder made the same kind of post you did at the start of the day and wound up being red. If players better than us are suggesting looking for the exact traits you showed in your very first post, we're probably on the right track.
I appreciate you explaining your reasoning somewhat - do you have a townread on OnceKing right now, or do you think you would have followed any other post that had brought up my post?
I think OnceKing's points are 1) Post is long 2) Criticism re: not playing before 3) Criticism re: claiming town 4) Criticism re: playtime 5) Inactives / not voting
I think I touched on a few of these in my last post, but let me ask this - Regarding playing before, don't you think that is relevant to the game? Your last post even mentions that it is relevant this is a newbie game.
I still think it is scummy that you wanted to suggest voting me but decided not to until someone else did, first. This early in the game I think we should post our suspicions as they arise.
On February 17 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote: I appreciate you explaining your reasoning somewhat - do you have a townread on OnceKing right now, or do you think you would have followed any other post that had brought up my post?
I think OnceKing's points are 1) Post is long 2) Criticism re: not playing before 3) Criticism re: claiming town 4) Criticism re: playtime 5) Inactives / not voting
I think I touched on a few of these in my last post, but let me ask this - Regarding playing before, don't you think that is relevant to the game? Your last post even mentions that it is relevant this is a newbie game.
I still think it is scummy that you wanted to suggest voting me but decided not to until someone else did, first. This early in the game I think we should post our suspicions as they arise.
I townread OnceKing, because he's posting his thoughts without fear. Hell, he even brought up what I wanted to bring up, so I see no point to view him as scum at this point if we think the exact same way. I see no point in scumreading anyone that shares the same viewpoint as I do about something so suspect and out of place so early. Any other post probably would have brought me around to vote you, had I not finally come out and made my suspicions clear before anyway.
Also, you say it's scummy to suggest voting you but I should post my suspicion as it arises. How is it that I'm scummy for saying that I think you're scum? Should I just never vote on my suspicions? Should I just ignore my suspicions if someone else shares the same sentiment as I do?
Your argument has holes in it and really only seems to be poking at the fact that I'm supposedly bandwagoning.
Alright, since we're apparently getting into srs bzns the opening of Day 1,
1) Given the last of mod post, I'm going to assume that there isn't an innocent child. That also means we might not have other roles either.
2) On Amiko, he's (she's?) been helpful thus far at least in providing a spreadsheet copy for us to use. That being said, his post-role post is, as you guys noted, is kinda scummy.
On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote:When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote
I disagree with this point. There's no reason to lynch lurkers Day 1 where there's limited information for them to participate anyways. The later the game goes, the more valid an option it becomes. But right now this post was pretty incredibly unhelpful, even if I do appreciate the town read.
That being said, for an opening post I'm not yet entirely convinced to bandwagon. I'd prefer a stronger case to be brought up.
On February 17 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote: I appreciate you explaining your reasoning somewhat - do you have a townread on OnceKing right now, or do you think you would have followed any other post that had brought up my post?
I think OnceKing's points are 1) Post is long 2) Criticism re: not playing before 3) Criticism re: claiming town 4) Criticism re: playtime 5) Inactives / not voting
I think I touched on a few of these in my last post, but let me ask this - Regarding playing before, don't you think that is relevant to the game? Your last post even mentions that it is relevant this is a newbie game.
I still think it is scummy that you wanted to suggest voting me but decided not to until someone else did, first. This early in the game I think we should post our suspicions as they arise.
I townread OnceKing, because he's posting his thoughts without fear. Hell, he even brought up what I wanted to bring up, so I see no point to view him as scum at this point if we think the exact same way. I see no point in scumreading anyone that shares the same viewpoint as I do about something so suspect and out of place so early. Any other post probably would have brought me around to vote you, had I not finally come out and made my suspicions clear before anyway.
Also, you say it's scummy to suggest voting you but I should post my suspicion as it arises. How is it that I'm scummy for saying that I think you're scum? Should I just never vote on my suspicions? Should I just ignore my suspicions if someone else shares the same sentiment as I do?
Your argument has holes in it and really only seems to be poking at the fact that I'm supposedly bandwagoning.
On February 17 2014 05:38 Cavalinho wrote: Because, quite frankly, I wasn't sure if I should have pursued your post due to this actually being a newbie game. I wasn't sure if real players would actually think like that in a gametype that emphasize newness.
But since I'm not the only one that thinks it, then I'm going to roll with the fact that this is probably the right path to go down.
I don't think it is scummy that you voted for me
But, it is scummy that you said you wanted to suggest vote for me. You posted after mine, yet your post did not address mine at all. You only raised the point after someone else had voted, then bandwagoned without providing anything comments on my post or OnceKing's post. It is scummy that your reason for not acting is that it is a newbie game. It seems to me there's all the more reason to raise suspicions in a game where players are inexperienced - we will not have as much skill making our own reads. It is worrying to me that you wouldn't raise a point just because someone else hasn't raised it - is that something you intend to keep doing in this game? My preference is that we all provide our scumreads ASAP.
Incidentally, you didn't respond to my comment regarding game experience. I think our experience playing/watching mafia is important. If you felt we wouldn't grasp your thoughts is that its a newbie game, clearly you also feel experience is relevant. I think opening posts should provide this information so we can evaluate each other with as much information as we can obtain.
I'd originally assumed when signing up it would be 3 Mafia (one of each role), with the remaining players split between the town roles randomly. Re-reading through the rules however, it reads to me as if there could be between 1 - 4 Mafia?
I'd originally assumed when signing up it would be 3 Mafia (one of each role), with the remaining players split between the town roles randomly. Re-reading through the rules however, it reads to me as if there could be between 1 - 4 Mafia?
Don't think there would be 4 mafia. That would be basically 1 mislynch and town loses. 1 mafia is too low threat and too easy for town. My guess is that it's more likely 2-3, probably trending towards 2.
(1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate-
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
(2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts?
I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity
Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day.
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
(2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts?
I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity
Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day.
For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary).
Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players.
I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no.
So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho.
Uh, who CARES if any of us have prior experience in a different situation? And why does this being a newbie game mean we should be more forgiving towards scummy posts? This will only let scum hide even more.
And now I'll respond to what Amiko wrote hopefully convincing others to put up their votes and cases:
On February 17 2014 05:34 Amiko wrote: I think this early the only information we have is on ourselves - votes change too much to mean anything unless you give some kind of reasons for your actions. So I am glad to explain why I may vote for people (being idle) or the only town read I had at the time (Lord Tolkein asking about innocent child).
I don't like OneKing's reasoning for voting me, though - (1) you want to discourage long posts, which I think hurts town (2) you classify saying you are town as scumsided rather than neutral (3) you claim (probably joking) that you are clear, and (4) providing the time you shouldn't expect posts from me (morning MST) merely provides a time, I'm sure there are times you sleep/commute as well and I would like to know them so you don't have an excuse for silence down the line. That said, I think OnceKing is acting slightly townsided because he has at least started some discussion by giving a reason for his vote, even if it is misguided.
Moving forward, I see Cavalinho's post as scummy - Cavalinho, what were your reasons for wanting to lynch me? The same reasons as OnceKing, or is there anything else to add? If you wanted to suggest voting me, why not suggest it in your earlier post?
1) No. I am NOT discouraging long posts. *I* had a relatively long post. I am encouraging CONSTRUCTIVE posts, and discouraging people posting a bunch of crap and pretending that it's good just because of its length. 2) Completely and randomly out of place. What was the context of you saying this? Nothing, it was just... there. For no reason whatsoever, as compared to Cavalinho's statement that he was cleared or cleared people or whatever in the context of banter about being clear. 3) No 4) Ok yes this makes sense but I'm not convinced this isn't a reason you made up to justify your excuses.
Congrats, you're completely misinterpreting what I've said (points 1 and 2) or said something completely wrong (point 3). I'm only more convinced you're scum now.
On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote: Oh, two other points:
(1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate-
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
(2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts?
I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity
Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day.
For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary).
Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players.
I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no.
So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho.
Except he hasn't provided any actual reason as to why I'm scum aside from voting him after agreeing with OnceKing. At best, his entire line of rationale can be classified as OMGUS; even then, it isn't a good one, as he is trying to push what he perceives as the weakest line of reasoning against the people pushing him right now.
He says voting is scummy, but outing reads is not. But then I call him on it and he says that voting isn't scummy and the fact that I think he's mafia after someone else posted all of the things I was already thinking of is scummy. But he already said that outing reads isn't scummy.
His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him.
On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote: Oh, two other points:
(1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate-
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
(2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts?
I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity
Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day.
For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary).
Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players.
I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no.
So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho.
Except he hasn't provided any actual reason as to why I'm scum aside from voting him after agreeing with OnceKing. At best, his entire line of rationale can be classified as OMGUS; even then, it isn't a good one, as he is trying to push what he perceives as the weakest line of reasoning against the people pushing him right now.
He says voting is scummy, but outing reads is not. But then I call him on it and he says that voting isn't scummy and the fact that I think he's mafia after someone else posted all of the things I was already thinking of is scummy. But he already said that outing reads isn't scummy.
His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him.
His rationale was that you stated that you had originally pegged his post as scummy, but didn't post until after OnceKing made the initial case. Which, honestly, in the current Day 1 climate of no info is as decently sound as we'll get.
Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do.
I may be painting a target on my back to get mafia-killed, but whatever.
On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote: Oh, two other points:
(1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate-
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
(2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts?
I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity
Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day.
For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary).
Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players.
I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no.
So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho.
Except he hasn't provided any actual reason as to why I'm scum aside from voting him after agreeing with OnceKing. At best, his entire line of rationale can be classified as OMGUS; even then, it isn't a good one, as he is trying to push what he perceives as the weakest line of reasoning against the people pushing him right now.
He says voting is scummy, but outing reads is not. But then I call him on it and he says that voting isn't scummy and the fact that I think he's mafia after someone else posted all of the things I was already thinking of is scummy. But he already said that outing reads isn't scummy.
His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him.
His rationale was that you stated that you had originally pegged his post as scummy, but didn't post until after OnceKing made the initial case. Which, honestly, in the current Day 1 climate of no info is as decently sound as we'll get.
Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do.
I may be painting a target on my back to get mafia-killed, but whatever.
Checking the more outspoken players such as you, me, Amiko, and OnceKing is a poor strategy. We can gather reads on each other by watching as we push our agendas throughout the game.
Lurking players are a different matter entirely. Depending on what Amiko flips, we can get a relatively solid gauge on whats going on.
Now, for the sake of argument, I'm going to walk through both scenarios.
A) Amiko flips green or, heaven forbid, blue. 1: The mafia will most likely be hiding amongst the inactives since they had almost no pressure put on them throughout the first day. 2: Mafia started the lynch and cast suspicion on themselves. This is a possible scenario, but it's still unlikely that a cop check will solve the issue since the most likely candidate for pushing someone that is supposedly town would be the Godfather.
B) Amiko flips red. 1: Mafia either defended him or bussed. Either way, mafia wouldn't be so outspoken on the first day trying to attract attention to themselves. 2: The people running the lynch should be almost confirmed town since mafia obviously wouldn't run one of their own guys into the ground so early.
Either way, cop checks should be carried out on the uncertains lurking in the background rather than the most outspoken players. Hell, even if we don't lynch Amiko today, I wouldn't want a cop check to be carried out on him for the sake that we can rely on him talking more than the other 4 players or so not saying much of anything.
I'm also putting a lot of emphasis on votelists because, even if we mislynch early, we can take a look at who's voting who and who is pushing what. If everyone on the chopping block for today's lynch is blue/green, we can look to the inactives as possible targets since no pressure was put on them throughout the day.
There's still more than 24 hours left for today's votes. Don't forget that. We have all the time in the world. I'm not even 100% on the Amiko lynch yet, so I might take my vote down just so we can get more reads.
On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow
What do you think of the Amiko lynch and what are your reads on everyone involved?
On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote: Oh, two other points:
(1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate-
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
(2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts?
I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity
Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day.
For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary).
Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players.
I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no.
So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho.
Except he hasn't provided any actual reason as to why I'm scum aside from voting him after agreeing with OnceKing. At best, his entire line of rationale can be classified as OMGUS; even then, it isn't a good one, as he is trying to push what he perceives as the weakest line of reasoning against the people pushing him right now.
He says voting is scummy, but outing reads is not. But then I call him on it and he says that voting isn't scummy and the fact that I think he's mafia after someone else posted all of the things I was already thinking of is scummy. But he already said that outing reads isn't scummy.
His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him.
His rationale was that you stated that you had originally pegged his post as scummy, but didn't post until after OnceKing made the initial case. Which, honestly, in the current Day 1 climate of no info is as decently sound as we'll get.
Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do.
I may be painting a target on my back to get mafia-killed, but whatever.
Checking the more outspoken players such as you, me, Amiko, and OnceKing is a poor strategy. We can gather reads on each other by watching as we push our agendas throughout the game.
Lurking players are a different matter entirely. Depending on what Amiko flips, we can get a relatively solid gauge on whats going on.
Now, for the sake of argument, I'm going to walk through both scenarios.
A) Amiko flips green or, heaven forbid, blue. 1: The mafia will most likely be hiding amongst the inactives since they had almost no pressure put on them throughout the first day. 2: Mafia started the lynch and cast suspicion on themselves. This is a possible scenario, but it's still unlikely that a cop check will solve the issue since the most likely candidate for pushing someone that is supposedly town would be the Godfather.
B) Amiko flips red. 1: Mafia either defended him or bussed. Either way, mafia wouldn't be so outspoken on the first day trying to attract attention to themselves. 2: The people running the lynch should be almost confirmed town since mafia obviously wouldn't run one of their own guys into the ground so early.
Either way, cop checks should be carried out on the uncertains lurking in the background rather than the most outspoken players. Hell, even if we don't lynch Amiko today, I wouldn't want a cop check to be carried out on him for the sake that we can rely on him talking more than the other 4 players or so not saying much of anything.
I'm also putting a lot of emphasis on votelists because, even if we mislynch early, we can take a look at who's voting who and who is pushing what. If everyone on the chopping block for today's lynch is blue/green, we can look to the inactives as possible targets since no pressure was put on them throughout the day.
There's still more than 24 hours left for today's votes. Don't forget that. We have all the time in the world. I'm not even 100% on the Amiko lynch yet, so I might take my vote down just so we can get more reads.
Just thought of something. The other option is if Amiko flips green or blue, and two of the (currently) three people advocating the lynch are red. Mafia will probably kill the non-red active player at night, and from what it currently stands, the two can lead the town into a self-lynching orgy. Also possible.
I'm leaning towards there being 2 mafia, but it's also possible that there's 3 (highly unlikely I think given only 9 players, but possible?). We'll see.
On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
##vote Amiko
Depending on the flip: 1) Die scum die 2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town
What? Of course it matters man. Who do you think is scum?
Given the current information set I have (which is limited):
Amiko: moderately leaning scum, not entirely convinced but very possible and the most "scummy" looking we have atm OnceKing: Leaning town or leaning Godfather at this point, I'd say the former, but the latter is certainly possible; does depend on how Amiko flips Cavalinho: Also depends on how Amiko flips, either slight scum or moderate town; his current posts have me fairly slanted towards the latter Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility. Beneather: slightly scummy just for voting for me. i aint no mafia bish~ Everyone else are lurkers I can't get a read on. Beneather falls in this category too. Either blues or reds most likely.
ebwop: Just interested as although miss lynch > lose would be a ridiculous setup for a newbie game, I'd rather know it's possible now than find out by a modpost after the night cycle!
can we please focus more on scumhunting and less on setup... Valenius what are your reads? More specifically I'd like to know what you think of Cavalinho and Lord Tolkien but other reads are welcome.
On February 17 2014 06:03 Lord Tolkien wrote: I disagree with this point. There's no reason to lynch lurkers Day 1 where there's limited information for them to participate anyways. The later the game goes, the more valid an option it becomes. But right now this post was pretty incredibly unhelpful, even if I do appreciate the town read.
I'd agree with this point for the most part. However, lynching a lurker would become the best option (in my eyes) if the next 27hrs of discussion don't lead to a solid read on a scum. I'd imagine it's easier to read someone's behaviours later on if they've already been posting.
On February 17 2014 06:03 Lord Tolkien wrote: I disagree with this point. There's no reason to lynch lurkers Day 1 where there's limited information for them to participate anyways. The later the game goes, the more valid an option it becomes. But right now this post was pretty incredibly unhelpful, even if I do appreciate the town read.
I'd agree with this point for the most part. However, lynching a lurker would become the best option (in my eyes) if the next 27hrs of discussion don't lead to a solid read on a scum. I'd imagine it's easier to read someone's behaviours later on if they've already been posting.
Any other major reads? Who's townish and who's scummy in your indication, and what are your thoughts about the current lynch case?
On February 17 2014 06:03 Lord Tolkien wrote: I disagree with this point. There's no reason to lynch lurkers Day 1 where there's limited information for them to participate anyways. The later the game goes, the more valid an option it becomes. But right now this post was pretty incredibly unhelpful, even if I do appreciate the town read.
I'd agree with this point for the most part. However, lynching a lurker would become the best option (in my eyes) if the next 27hrs of discussion don't lead to a solid read on a scum. I'd imagine it's easier to read someone's behaviours later on if they've already been posting.
This is not a read. You're just saying you agree with one part of a post by him. What are your READS?
As in my last post, I agree (for the most part) with the lynching/no-lynching of lurkers.
"2) On Amiko, he's (she's?) been helpful thus far at least in providing a spreadsheet copy for us to use."
I don't see how that has any relevance to the actual game, it stands out to me as being an odd comment to use when discussing someone's posting.
Amiko:
1. Suggesting to lynch lurkers, and then naming the lurkers 02:45 after the thread started was weird. You said "I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started", but with 48-hour days if you're wanting to lynch lurkers you should be posting your list well into the second day. It add's absolutely nothing that early into Day 1.. my post was just saying I'm going to bed, that shouldn't be enough to get me off a lurker list.
2. Calling yourself town in your first post, again, seems off to me. If you're acting as town, people should form their own town opinion of you, which will be 100x stronger than a read formed by you claiming to be town in a first post.
3. I was going to add here about OneKing's criticism of the length of the post.. it's valid criticism, although in this case I feel like it's given some interesting talking points so i'll forgive it.
Cavalinho:
His (I presume?) explanation of only jumping on Amiko after the post by yourself was satisfactory to me, otherwise i'd be much more interested in the reasoning behind that..
Mafia Reads? Amiko / IAmRobik. Just a gut feeling on Robik.
Town Reads? Lord Tolkein, and potentially OnceKing. No other strong reads yet.
Also, you have to give me time to post.. The above post by me was posted before seeing your question (I went to make a coffee, and posted when I got back). I'm not a masssively quick poster, I like to go back and check, and recheck previous posts.
"2) On Amiko, he's (she's?) been helpful thus far at least in providing a spreadsheet copy for us to use."
I don't see how that has any relevance to the actual game, it stands out to me as being an odd comment to use when discussing someone's posting.
Amiko:
1. Suggesting to lynch lurkers, and then naming the lurkers 02:45 after the thread started was weird. You said "I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started", but with 48-hour days if you're wanting to lynch lurkers you should be posting your list well into the second day. It add's absolutely nothing that early into Day 1.. my post was just saying I'm going to bed, that shouldn't be enough to get me off a lurker list.
2. Calling yourself town in your first post, again, seems off to me. If you're acting as town, people should form their own town opinion of you, which will be 100x stronger than a read formed by you claiming to be town in a first post.
3. I was going to add here about OneKing's criticism of the length of the post.. it's valid criticism, although in this case I feel like it's given some interesting talking points so i'll forgive it.
Cavalinho:
His (I presume?) explanation of only jumping on Amiko after the post by yourself was satisfactory to me, otherwise i'd be much more interested in the reasoning behind that..
Mafia Reads? Amiko / IAmRobik. Just a gut feeling on Robik.
Town Reads? Lord Tolkein, and potentially OnceKing. No other strong reads yet.
Also, you have to give me time to post.. The above post by me was posted before seeing your question (I went to make a coffee, and posted when I got back). I'm not a masssively quick poster, I like to go back and check, and recheck previous posts.
Thank you for the reads.
Looking back at that point of comment, it is indeed odd and I thank you for pointing it out. I blame lack of sleep.
You don't have a strong read on Cavalinho I assume?
Alright, sorry for jumping down your throat lol Why is Lord Tolkien town to you if all you have to say about him is that you agree that a policy lynch on lurkers is stupid (it is) and that he's made an irrelevant post?
As in my last post, I agree (for the most part) with the lynching/no-lynching of lurkers.
"2) On Amiko, he's (she's?) been helpful thus far at least in providing a spreadsheet copy for us to use."
I don't see how that has any relevance to the actual game, it stands out to me as being an odd comment to use when discussing someone's posting.
Amiko:
1. Suggesting to lynch lurkers, and then naming the lurkers 02:45 after the thread started was weird. You said "I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started", but with 48-hour days if you're wanting to lynch lurkers you should be posting your list well into the second day. It add's absolutely nothing that early into Day 1.. my post was just saying I'm going to bed, that shouldn't be enough to get me off a lurker list.
2. Calling yourself town in your first post, again, seems off to me. If you're acting as town, people should form their own town opinion of you, which will be 100x stronger than a read formed by you claiming to be town in a first post.
3. I was going to add here about OneKing's criticism of the length of the post.. it's valid criticism, although in this case I feel like it's given some interesting talking points so i'll forgive it.
Cavalinho:
His (I presume?) explanation of only jumping on Amiko after the post by yourself was satisfactory to me, otherwise i'd be much more interested in the reasoning behind that..
Mafia Reads? Amiko / IAmRobik. Just a gut feeling on Robik.
Town Reads? Lord Tolkein, and potentially OnceKing. No other strong reads yet.
Also, you have to give me time to post.. The above post by me was posted before seeing your question (I went to make a coffee, and posted when I got back). I'm not a masssively quick poster, I like to go back and check, and recheck previous posts.
Thank you for the reads.
Looking back at that point of comment, it is indeed odd and I thank you for pointing it out. I blame lack of sleep.
You don't have a strong read on Cavalinho I assume?
Not particularly, although I'm unsure on the argument for not checking the active players. If some of the active players are in fact mafia, they could lead the game to a mafia win easier than I think the lurkers could. However, as with the lynching discussion, checking lurkers could be better due to getting better reads from those who are posting frequently.
Mods, The Filters next to peoples names in the OP need updating to be looking at this thread, not the shadowed mafia one.
On February 17 2014 10:15 OnceKing wrote: Alright, sorry for jumping down your throat lol Why is Lord Tolkien town to you if all you have to say about him is that you agree that a policy lynch on lurkers is stupid (it is) and that he's made an irrelevant post?
Just a general feeling.
None of my Town/Mafia reads are strong enough at this moment. LordT and yourself are just the two putting yourself in that category the most so far to me.
On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow
What do you think of the Amiko lynch and what are your reads on everyone involved?
Sorry for the late reply, had a long day today and just got back home.
The first vote cast on Amiko was by OnceKing with the main reason being he didn't like his initial post. I agree with him on that, but I don't think it's enough to warrant a lynch on Amiko. What I didn't like about Amiko's initial post was there wasn't really anything of substance, his town claim is unnecessary since at that point anybody can claim town and it doesn't mean anything. The vibe I'm getting from that is that he wants eyes away from him.
I really don't like this line from Amiko:
(1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate-
I think most of us are new to the forum mafia game and sometimes mistakes can get a townie lynched (happened to me my last game). I just don't really see how we can use experience to evaluate anybody's alignment, if that's what Amiko means by evaluate. This line doesn't really give me a scum read on him, I just don't agree with his statement.
But from his initial post, I lean very lightly towards a scum read on Amiko.
As for others, I'll post a bit more later after I catch up and read through some filters.
@Beneather You haven't really contributed anything of substance other than the vote on Lord Tolkien, which I'm assuming isn't serious. What is your read on Lord Tolkien?
I've a strong town read on Cavalinho, I really like his posts and the reasoning he's put into them, especially where he goes over the scenarios in which Amiko flips. He's really put himself out there trying to help town, even going as far as quoting one of the guides on TL to support his read on Amiko.
After reading through Cavalinho's and OnceKing's posts, I'm starting to be a bit more convinced that Amiko is scum, however with so many inactives I will wait until they start posting more before casting my vote. Scum have a huge incentive to hide right now if Amiko is town.
@Lord Tolkien:
Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility.
I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take?
Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility.
I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take?
I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot.
Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices.
Cavalinho: Let's start here. As I said earlier, I think his suggestion that he wanted to vote for me but didn't act on it is scummy. What makes it worse is this post, where he does something similar:
On February 17 2014 07:56 Cavalinho wrote:What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him.
Again, Cavalinho says he had a thought or analysis, but didn't act on it. He doesn't say what points he agreed or disagreed with, and is attempting to align himself with another player without offering anything.
I read players that bandwagon without providing reasons as more likely to be mafia than noncontributing players. If Beneather or n1k0 provide a post with nothing more than a vote, I would raise the same criticism about them. Idle players are good when we lack information, but when someone acts scummy and continues to act scummy they take a higher priority.
But, it gets worse for Cavalinho. First he said he wanted to vote for me before the first vote. Then, he said he was probably on the right track. Then he said he considered Lord Tolkein, but decided he should still go after me.
Then, you get this:
On February 17 2014 08:33 Cavalinho wrote:There's still more than 24 hours left for today's votes. Don't forget that. We have all the time in the world. I'm not even 100% on the Amiko lynch yet, so I might take my vote down just so we can get more reads.
If Cavalinho wanted more reads, this was the absolute wrong way to end the post. He should be pressuring the people he wants reads from. I see this post as trying to appear unsure - I think it's clear that my number one suspicion was on him, so when I flip town it'll look bad for him, so this is an opportunity to start looking for someone he can target on day 2. This is hedging his bets and it isn't doing anything for town.
IAmRobik: I have a slight scum read on him because of the ambiguity of his post.
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
It doesn't say he agrees or disagrees. And, he doesn't follow up on his question at all. I think he should explain his posts and provide some analysis or at least weigh in on one side or the other for my post..
LordTolkein: This post concerned me
On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
If you are town, it should be super relevant whether I am mafia. I've given some explanation of my playstyle and I'm the focus of day 1. If you are town, you should be wondering about my side because it may be the only information you get going into day 2. If you are town, why are you willing to enter the next day with as little information as you have? This is at worst a scumslip, and at best it's the wrong attitude to have. I don't want to base too much off this comment, but it made him lean scum for me.
OnceKing: I discussed OnceKing somewhat earlier. In summary, although he is voting for me and I am town, I think he's at least directed town toward some useful discussion and provided reasoning. More importantly, he's followed that up by pressuring for thoughts of other players. I don't like that he is leading a lynch on me, but and I think he has selectively misinterpreted my posts twice. But as I said before I think this is town-favored play because it has helped conversation..
theDragoon & Valenius: I'm not sure. They have contributed a little but I don't have a read yet. I would like to ask both, if you were to pick someone other than me to lynch, who would you pick and why? If I am lynched and flip green, what will your thoughts be on Cavalinho &
Beneather, [b]n1ko[b/]: Nothing to read yet. I would also like to know what they think of Cavalinho since I fingered him in response. I'd also like to know whether they can commit to being more active in the coming days because right now we have no information to use.
Regardless of whether you agree with me, I think you should at least be dissatisfied with the contributions you have gotten from most of town today. I hope you do not vote me, I will certainly keep on contributing while I am alive. Hopefully I can persuade you to change your minds to avoid a mislynch.
On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote: I've a strong town read on Cavalinho, I really like his posts and the reasoning he's put into them, especially where he goes over the scenarios in which Amiko flips. He's really put himself out there trying to help town, even going as far as quoting one of the guides on TL to support his read on Amiko.
After reading through Cavalinho's and OnceKing's posts, I'm starting to be a bit more convinced that Amiko is scum, however with so many inactives I will wait until they start posting more before casting my vote. Scum have a huge incentive to hide right now if Amiko is town.
I think Cavalinho's analysis of the flips is off and you should not like these scenarios.
On February 17 2014 08:33 Cavalinho wrote:
A) Amiko flips green or, heaven forbid, blue. 1: The mafia will most likely be hiding amongst the inactives since they had almost no pressure put on them throughout the first day. 2: Mafia started the lynch and cast suspicion on themselves. This is a possible scenario, but it's still unlikely that a cop check will solve the issue since the most likely candidate for pushing someone that is supposedly town would be the Godfather.
I think #1 makes some sense because Mafia doesn't know when starting a vote whether town would follow. This is why I don't feel that OnceKing voting me reflects any scumminess. But, Mafia have every incentive to join in the vote on a non-mafia player. Right now mafia should be encouraging the idea that I am the only vote for today, or that the vote is decided at this point. That's why this post by Tolkein is troubling:
On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
##vote Amiko
Depending on the flip: 1) Die scum die 2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town
I'm not advocating a vote for Tolkein right now, but that post is encouraging the idea that the day is already over. Even if you think I'm the scummiest player, you should be pressuring other players to give their logic and explaining your reasoning so that town has more information for the following day. In other words, mafia shouldn't be hiding among the inactives, they should be actively trying to close the deal on me.
Basically, Cavalinho and I entirely disagree. He thinks mafia are either the leaders, or uninvolved in the vote. I think mafia have the most to gain by encouraging an incorrect vote.
On February 17 2014 08:33 Cavalinho wrote: B) Amiko flips red. 1: Mafia either defended him or bussed. Either way, mafia wouldn't be so outspoken on the first day trying to attract attention to themselves. 2: The people running the lynch should be almost confirmed town since mafia obviously wouldn't run one of their own guys into the ground so early.
I won't flip red so I don't see much point in commenting on this. But, I do agree it's unlikely mafia would bus when there are probably 2-3 mafia in the game.
I actually agree with you regarding your points on Cavalinho and Lord Tolkien. More specifically I feel that they've both jumped onto the wagon I'm pushing onto you without contributing anything themselves: Cavalinho just said I beat him to it and Lord Tolkien, well...
Going through his filter here's what Lord Tolkien's got: - random soft defense of you from before our roles came out - says he's unconvinced that Amiko is scum, then votes for him saying his vote doesn't matter (???)* - quoted a Cavalinho hypothetical scenario breakdown and just said he agreed with it without adding anything - takes no sides -- I'm either "town or Godfather", Cavalinho is "slight scum" or "moderate town", Beneather being slightly scum for voting him (???) - speculates on setup (meh) - focuses an awful lot on Godfather/NKs
*Yes, your vote always matters. If you're town then this is your weapon. The only thing is that he's been posting a lot which I appreciate but I just don't see anything original coming out of him, and here's a disconcerting post...
On February 17 2014 08:14 Lord Tolkien wrote: Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do.
Yeah, we're all newbies here. Why bring it up? I reiterate, who CARES how much experience we do or don't have? Presumably we've all read guides or bits and pieces of other games or something else -- why should you want to detract from your own analysis unless you're trying to hide?
##UNVOTE As of right now I don't think Lord Tolkien is scum. However this post,
On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
##vote Amiko
Depending on the flip: 1) Die scum die 2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town
makes it seem he just wants to end the day with a lynch on Amiko without any further discussion. His mind is made up it seems and does not want to pressure any other players.
On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote: @Lord Tolkien:
Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility.
I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take?
I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot.
Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices.
Let's say we don't lynch Amiko on this day, and Tolkien would be killed on the night or is actually a veteran and takes a shot. That would mean Amiko would be scum, since Tolkien is pushing for an Amiko lynch on d1. I still do not understand why Tolkien feels that Amiko is scummy.
Right now I don't have any good reads on anyone and I will do some further reading, sorry for the absence, will report later with more analysis.
On February 17 2014 13:12 OnceKing wrote: re: Amiko
I actually agree with you regarding your points on Cavalinho and Lord Tolkien. More specifically I feel that they've both jumped onto the wagon I'm pushing onto you without contributing anything themselves: Cavalinho just said I beat him to it and Lord Tolkien, well...
Going through his filter here's what Lord Tolkien's got: - random soft defense of you from before our roles came out - says he's unconvinced that Amiko is scum, then votes for him saying his vote doesn't matter (???)* - quoted a Cavalinho hypothetical scenario breakdown and just said he agreed with it without adding anything - takes no sides -- I'm either "town or Godfather", Cavalinho is "slight scum" or "moderate town", Beneather being slightly scum for voting him (???) - speculates on setup (meh) - focuses an awful lot on Godfather/NKs
*Yes, your vote always matters. If you're town then this is your weapon. The only thing is that he's been posting a lot which I appreciate but I just don't see anything original coming out of him, and here's a disconcerting post...
On February 17 2014 08:14 Lord Tolkien wrote: Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do.
Yeah, we're all newbies here. Why bring it up? I reiterate, who CARES how much experience we do or don't have? Presumably we've all read guides or bits and pieces of other games or something else -- why should you want to detract from your own analysis unless you're trying to hide?
I've been contributing. Just because I agree with your earlier post doesn't make me mafia. What, am I not allowed to follow plans through? Can I not agree with another person's analysis? I'm wasting time and effort defending myself because he keeps pushing on me for following a plan.
Basically all of my posts boil down to either trying to kill Amiko or save myself, because he keeps calling me out for agreeing with you. I think it's ridiculous that I'm getting looked at as possible mafia because I agree with someone else's analysis. (For the record, I agree with all of what you said about it. Just in case this comes up again.)
I'm actually getting very frustrated with the way this is going, because I can't sit down and get reads from anyone since I'm defending my views every other post I make. Even when I point at both Lord Tolkein and IAmRobik, I have people doubting the fact that I'm town since I'm focused on getting one lynch done today and looking at these other people in the mean time.
(And also, Tolkein's disinterest in who gets lynched today is very concerning. I know I suggested him slightly before, but if we aren't going to go after Amiko, then I suggest either IAmRobik or Lord Tolkein.)
Also, I stated earlier that we should be using our cop checks on the uncertains. Amiko's activity should tell us enough about his agenda if we leave him alone long enough, and we obviously can't get rid of all 2-3 mafia in one day.
Whoa, defensive! I'm just saying that you just agreed with me without really adding anything new. I'm honestly looking pretty hard at Lord Tolkien right now -- and I'd like to see a more split situation on votes anyhow because this will drive more discussion. Therefore, ##VOTE Lord Tolkien
On February 17 2014 14:13 OnceKing wrote: Whoa, defensive! I'm just saying that you just agreed with me without really adding anything new. I'm honestly looking pretty hard at Lord Tolkien right now -- and I'd like to see a more split situation on votes anyhow because this will drive more discussion. Therefore, ##VOTE Lord Tolkien
I'm getting very frustrated with Amiko.
I'm going to stay on this vote until tomorrow and see what's going on later.
On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
##vote Amiko
Depending on the flip: 1) Die scum die 2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town
makes it seem he just wants to end the day with a lynch on Amiko without any further discussion. His mind is made up it seems and does not want to pressure any other players.
Ending the day on a lynch on Amiko, at the time of posting, would've revealed enough info on Day 2 for us (and me) to start going on, given the two who were initially in on it, depending on which way he flipped. If green, there's reasonable suspicion cast upon OnceKing and Cavalinho. In the off-chance he was red, well, we again know. I wasn't entirely convinced he was scum, but he was the "scummiest" read I had from the limited set of posts (and I wasn't willing to vote on him initially, if you read my filter), and remains so unless a new case is brought up.
On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote: @Lord Tolkien:
Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility.
I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take?
I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot.
Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices.
Let's say we don't lynch Amiko on this day, and Tolkien would be killed on the night or is actually a veteran and takes a shot. That would mean Amiko would be scum, since Tolkien is pushing for an Amiko lynch on d1. I still do not understand why Tolkien feels that Amiko is scummy.
Right now I don't have any good reads on anyone and I will do some further reading, sorry for the absence, will report later with more analysis.[/QUOTE] I'm not going to speculate on night actions at this point of time yet, as there are too many variables to account for outside of a mafia kill.
But if you guys would like, bring up a case against me. I'd like to see why people thing I'm scummy so I can rebut them.
QUOTE]On February 17 2014 13:12 OnceKing wrote: re: Amiko
I actually agree with you regarding your points on Cavalinho and Lord Tolkien. More specifically I feel that they've both jumped onto the wagon I'm pushing onto you without contributing anything themselves: Cavalinho just said I beat him to it and Lord Tolkien, well...
Going through his filter here's what Lord Tolkien's got: - random soft defense of you from before our roles came out - says he's unconvinced that Amiko is scum, then votes for him saying his vote doesn't matter (???)* - quoted a Cavalinho hypothetical scenario breakdown and just said he agreed with it without adding anything - takes no sides -- I'm either "town or Godfather", Cavalinho is "slight scum" or "moderate town", Beneather being slightly scum for voting him (???) - speculates on setup (meh) - focuses an awful lot on Godfather/NKs
*Yes, your vote always matters. If you're town then this is your weapon. The only thing is that he's been posting a lot which I appreciate but I just don't see anything original coming out of him, and here's a disconcerting post...[/quote]
Responding to you an Amiko at the same time:
1) I've outlined why I decided to vote for the lynch, and why, given the limited information set, a lynch on Amiko would've been fine for me going into Day 2. While there was a soft defense, I do state that it was still a scummy post, even if I wasn't going to commit immediately. This is why I stated that, while I'm wasn't entirely convinced about Amiko being red, I was willing to go with a lynch on him. It would reveal information about OnceKing and Cavalinho depending on which way he flipped.
2) I posted a clarification to it in the possible case that Amiko turns up green, immediately after the agreement.
3) Given the limited number of posts, there was not much to go on besides your initiation of the lynch on Amiko, his responses and back-and-forth with Cavalinho. Therefore, my reads on you and Cavalinho, if the lynch had gone through, would've been based on the flip. That the whole point of it all.
4) The scummy read on Beneather is a joke. I'm fairly certain I made that clear, as I write jokes differently.
slightly scummy just for voting for me. i aint no mafia bish~
Note the lack of capitalization. compared to the rest of the post. And the ~. And bish. You're really trying for the dregs here.
On February 17 2014 08:14 Lord Tolkien wrote: Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do.
Yeah, we're all newbies here. Why bring it up? I reiterate, who CARES how much experience we do or don't have? Presumably we've all read guides or bits and pieces of other games or something else -- why should you want to detract from your own analysis unless you're trying to hide? [/QUOTE] Why the fuck are you focusing on one word in the entire analysis OUTLINING EXACTLY WHY I WAS FOR THE LYNCH YOU INITIATED (and then have the audacity try to question why I would vote for him despite being entirely sold in later posts)? If I had removed (newbie), would that change anything about the damn post about all? So why the hell are you tunnel visioning on this?
On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
##vote Amiko
Depending on the flip: 1) Die scum die 2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town
makes it seem he just wants to end the day with a lynch on Amiko without any further discussion. His mind is made up it seems and does not want to pressure any other players.
Ending the day on a lynch on Amiko, at the time of posting, would've revealed enough info on Day 2 for us (and me) to start going on, given the two who were initially in on it, depending on which way he flipped. If green, there's reasonable suspicion cast upon OnceKing and Cavalinho. In the off-chance he was red, well, we again know. I wasn't entirely convinced he was scum, but he was the "scummiest" read I had from the limited set of posts (and I wasn't willing to vote on him initially, if you read my filter), and remains so unless a new case is brought up.
On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote: @Lord Tolkien:
Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility.
I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take?
I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot.
Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices.
Let's say we don't lynch Amiko on this day, and Tolkien would be killed on the night or is actually a veteran and takes a shot. That would mean Amiko would be scum, since Tolkien is pushing for an Amiko lynch on d1. I still do not understand why Tolkien feels that Amiko is scummy.
Right now I don't have any good reads on anyone and I will do some further reading, sorry for the absence, will report later with more analysis.
I'm not going to speculate on night actions at this point of time yet, as there are too many variables to account for outside of a mafia kill.
But if you guys would like, bring up a case against me. I'd like to see why people thing I'm scummy so I can rebut them.
On February 17 2014 13:12 OnceKing wrote: re: Amiko
I actually agree with you regarding your points on Cavalinho and Lord Tolkien. More specifically I feel that they've both jumped onto the wagon I'm pushing onto you without contributing anything themselves: Cavalinho just said I beat him to it and Lord Tolkien, well...
Going through his filter here's what Lord Tolkien's got: - random soft defense of you from before our roles came out - says he's unconvinced that Amiko is scum, then votes for him saying his vote doesn't matter (???)* - quoted a Cavalinho hypothetical scenario breakdown and just said he agreed with it without adding anything - takes no sides -- I'm either "town or Godfather", Cavalinho is "slight scum" or "moderate town", Beneather being slightly scum for voting him (???) - speculates on setup (meh) - focuses an awful lot on Godfather/NKs
*Yes, your vote always matters. If you're town then this is your weapon. The only thing is that he's been posting a lot which I appreciate but I just don't see anything original coming out of him, and here's a disconcerting post...
Responding to you an Amiko at the same time:
1) I've outlined why I decided to vote for the lynch, and why, given the limited information set, a lynch on Amiko would've been fine for me going into Day 2. While there was a soft defense, I do state that it was still a scummy post, even if I wasn't going to commit immediately. This is why I stated that, while I'm wasn't entirely convinced about Amiko being red, I was willing to go with a lynch on him. It would reveal information about OnceKing and Cavalinho depending on which way he flipped.
2) I posted a clarification to it in the possible case that Amiko turns up green, immediately after the agreement.
3) Given the limited number of posts, there was not much to go on besides your initiation of the lynch on Amiko, his responses and back-and-forth with Cavalinho. Therefore, my reads on you and Cavalinho, if the lynch had gone through, would've been based on the flip. That the whole point of it all.
4) The scummy read on Beneather is a joke. I'm fairly certain I made that clear, as I write jokes differently.
slightly scummy just for voting for me. i aint no mafia bish~
Note the lack of capitalization. compared to the rest of the post. And the ~. And bish. You're really trying for the dregs here.
On February 17 2014 08:14 Lord Tolkien wrote: Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do.
Yeah, we're all newbies here. Why bring it up? I reiterate, who CARES how much experience we do or don't have? Presumably we've all read guides or bits and pieces of other games or something else -- why should you want to detract from your own analysis unless you're trying to hide?
Why the fuck are you focusing on one word in the entire analysis OUTLINING EXACTLY WHY I WAS FOR THE LYNCH YOU INITIATED (and then have the audacity try to question why I would vote for him despite being entirely sold in later posts)? If I had removed (newbie), would that change anything about the damn post about all? So why the hell are you tunnel visioning on this?
1) Cavalinho, why exactly do you think I'm scummy, or IAmRobik is scummy? I'd like to address the former, and the latter seems...confusing at best since his contributions have been minimal, and your random suspicions drawn right after his (joke) response to your joke response. His only posts have been:
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
On February 17 2014 06:19 IAmRobik wrote: Let's not talk about roles There are maximum 3 maf
Neither of which, while relatively unhelpful, also point towards scum.
lol. Great job so you supported me on the lynch I started, so what? The question isn't what you did but instead how you did it. You supported my lynch by... how again? Remind me because I can't recall you actually contributing anything except trying to throw doubt on the people who started the wagon while joining the wagon yourself.
The icing on the cake is now you say you're sold on the wagon when previously you were unconvinced, then you were voting him for dubious reasons -- now that you've been called on it you claim to have been solidly on it when a quick perusal of your filter shows that this is in fact not the case.
And hey let's even ask what it means about me if Amiko gets lynched flips green. Spoilers: It means absolutely nothing! If I'm town, how do I have any definite knowledge of what he is? I don't, therefore I can only use the tools I have available to me which are logic and scumhunting, now being turned onto you.
Think IAmRobik's scummy, or anything? Make a case and vote him.
On February 17 2014 15:12 OnceKing wrote: lol. Great job so you supported me on the lynch I started, so what? The question isn't what you did but instead how you did it. You supported my lynch by... how again? Remind me because I can't recall you actually contributing anything except trying to throw doubt on the people who started the wagon while joining the wagon yourself.
The icing on the cake is now you say you're sold on the wagon when previously you were unconvinced, then you were voting him for dubious reasons -- now that you've been called on it you claim to have been solidly on it when a quick perusal of your filter shows that this is in fact not the case.
On February 17 2014 06:03 Lord Tolkien wrote: Alright, since we're apparently getting into srs bzns the opening of Day 1,
1) Given the last of mod post, I'm going to assume that there isn't an innocent child. That also means we might not have other roles either.
2) On Amiko, he's (she's?) been helpful thus far at least in providing a spreadsheet copy for us to use. That being said, his post-role post is, as you guys noted, is kinda scummy.
On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote:When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote
I disagree with this point. There's no reason to lynch lurkers Day 1 where there's limited information for them to participate anyways. The later the game goes, the more valid an option it becomes. But right now this post was pretty incredibly unhelpful, even if I do appreciate the town read.
That being said, for an opening post I'm not yet entirely convinced to bandwagon. I'd prefer a stronger case to be brought up.
Was my initial response to the opening of the case.
On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote: Oh, two other points:
(1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate-
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
(2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts?
I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity
Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day.
For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary).
Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players.
I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no.
So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho.
And hey let's even ask what it means about me if Amiko gets lynched flips green. Spoilers: It means absolutely nothing! If I'm town, how do I have any definite knowledge of what he is? I don't, therefore I can only use the tools I have available to me which are logic and scumhunting, now being turned onto you.
It's entirely possible both of you are town, or that you, Amiko, and Cavalinho are also town. In which case, the lynch would've been unfortunate. But. given the way the case was going and the interactions involved, I'm betting at least one of you is mafia.
I'm still waiting on a cognizant case against me. If that's all it amounts to, cool. I'll let everyone else judge this.
Think IAmRobik's scummy, or anything? Make a case and vote him.
I don't think he's scummy, just lurking; however, Cavalinho does. There's a minimal amount of posts that suggest this, which is why I'm questioning him about it.
theDragoon & Valenius: I'm not sure. They have contributed a little but I don't have a read yet. I would like to ask both, if you were to pick someone other than me to lynch, who would you pick and why? If I am lynched and flip green, what will your thoughts be on Cavalinho &
I've got my eye on Lord Tolkien at this point in time mainly because of this:
On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote: @Lord Tolkien:
Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility.
I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take?
I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot.
Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices.
The problem I have with this is the soft blue claim. He's saying that a cop or similar blue role wouldn't be active on day 1 for fear of drawing attention to themselves. Then he says if he is blue, then he'd be a Veteran. I'm not really buying the whole I'm active therefore I'm a veteran thing. I feel like any townie, green or blue should try to be active so that we can gather as much info as we can.
So by trying to suggest he is a blue, he can avoid 2 things:
1) getting lynched if people believe his suggestion, this works well if he's red 2) if mafia doesn't have a roleblocker and they believe he is a veteran then he avoids getting shot, he's basically banking on mafia not having a roleblocker.
He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet.
theDragoon & Valenius: I'm not sure. They have contributed a little but I don't have a read yet. I would like to ask both, if you were to pick someone other than me to lynch, who would you pick and why? If I am lynched and flip green, what will your thoughts be on Cavalinho &
I've got my eye on Lord Tolkien at this point in time mainly because of this:
On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote: @Lord Tolkien:
Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility.
I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take?
I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot.
Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices.
The problem I have with this is the soft blue claim. He's saying that a cop or similar blue role wouldn't be active on day 1 for fear of drawing attention to themselves. Then he says if he is blue, then he'd be a Veteran. I'm not really buying the whole I'm active therefore I'm a veteran thing. I feel like any townie, green or blue should try to be active so that we can gather as much info as we can.
So by trying to suggest he is a blue, he can avoid 2 things:
1) getting lynched if people believe his suggestion, this works well if he's red 2) if mafia doesn't have a roleblocker and they believe he is a veteran then he avoids getting shot, he's basically banking on mafia not having a roleblocker.
He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet.
I'm saying that I would either be green, a veteran, or red. Those are the possibilities, and I would say the same of Cavalinho and OnceKing. This doesn't just apply to me. I am highly skeptical that any of the three of us are a doctor, cop, or somesuch, because those roles will prefer not to be in the limelight.
Ok next question. If you are not sold on the lynch why are you voting for him still?? AND you say that you don't think IAmRobik is scummy, just inactive when you've clearly called out some of his posts as making him scummy, so what gives? You haven't done any real scumhunting thus far, and --
This is why I stated that, while I'm wasn't entirely convinced about Amiko being red, I was willing to go with a lynch on him. It would reveal information about OnceKing and Cavalinho depending on which way he flipped.
Ahahahahaha. Lynching for "Information". Ya ok definitely voting you now. How's this for information. We lynch Lord Tolkien and he flips red. Sound good to all?
Here's the 4 possibilities to why I made the comment regarding myself, Cavalinho, and OnceKing:
1) I am red, in which case, I would, as you stated, ward off a lynch if people believe me.
2) I am vanilla townie, in which case I get to ward away a mafia hit on my life by dissuading them from attacking me if they believe I'm a vet, or alternately eat a roleblock or a hit if they believe I'm a blue role, or die if they believe I'm a vanilla townie (unless they have other priorities).
3) I am not a non-vet blue role, in which case I draw mafia attention, inviting myself to being roleblocked or killed by the mafia. If they believe me, I'll be left alone, if not, they can roleblock me or kill me.
4) I am the vet; if they believe me, it helps make the mafia much more willing to push a lynch on me, and help us determine who's mafia. If they don't, I can eat a hit or a roleblock.
On February 17 2014 15:58 OnceKing wrote: Ok next question. If you are not sold on the lynch why are you voting for him still?? AND you say that you don't think IAmRobik is scummy, just inactive when you've clearly called out some of his posts as making him scummy, so what gives? You haven't done any real scumhunting thus far, and --
On February 17 2014 14:53 Lord Tolkien wrote: Alright, with a few new posts in the aftermath:
1) Cavalinho, why exactly do you think I'm scummy, or IAmRobik is scummy? I'd like to address the former, and the latter seems...confusing at best since his contributions have been minimal, and your random suspicions drawn right after his (joke) response to your joke response. His only posts have been:
This is why I stated that, while I'm wasn't entirely convinced about Amiko being red, I was willing to go with a lynch on him. It would reveal information about OnceKing and Cavalinho depending on which way he flipped.
Ahahahahaha. Lynching for "Information". Ya ok definitely voting you now. How's this for information. We lynch Lord Tolkien and he flips red. Sound good to all?
How about this: if you guys do and I turn up green or blue, you guys lynch OnceKing?
Because I'm now pretty sure you're scum after this post, and a town for a mafia is a pretty sure trade.
oh god dammit did i seriously misread that post LOL o well, strike that point then.
Alright then everyone has two options here as to what they want to believe.
1. I'm mafia. I just went from "probably town or Godfather" by posting without fear because I'm continuing to post completely unfearfully and want to get someone lynched instead of sitting back and letting the town do stupid stuff like speculate about setup or ask pointless questions such as "r u mafia" OR 2. I'm town. I think this guy who obsesses over power roles and night actions instead of lynching mafia is scum, but misread one of his posts. He votes for dubious reasons, dismisses any arguments brought against him while not addressing anything but the weakest points ("here, let me quote an old post, that will allay any fears!") or scumhunting. Also, his initial statement on Amiko basically rehashes what mine was and Lord Tolkien confusingly had his vote on him for the longest time despite "not being sold" or Amiko providing a "decent defense" because he wanted to lynch for information instead of lynching to kill scum.
Lord Tolkien has contributed nothing new despite having a multitude of posts other than attacking me just now.
1. I'm mafia. I just went from "probably town or Godfather" by posting without fear to SURE SCUM because I'm continuing to post completely unfearfully and want to get someone lynched instead of sitting back and letting the town do stupid stuff like speculate about setup or ask pointless questions such as "r u mafia"
Obviously I've considered one scenario above the other
@Lord Tolkien, you didn't exactly call out IAmRobik as scum but you did say that IAR's posts point towards scum.
OnceKing said:
AND you say that you don't think IAmRobik is scummy, just inactive when you've clearly called out some of his posts as making him scummy, so what gives?
I believe he is correct.
Can you tell me why you strongly believe OnceKing is mafia? He started the vote on Amiko, which gained a bit of ground then switched to you. If he was mafia, why would he switch from Amiko, who was getting a lot of suspicious looks from people, including yourself. He said he wanted to split votes to generate more discussion, which isn't really a scum move and it favors town since mafia can't easily bandwagon.
On February 17 2014 16:23 OnceKing wrote: oh god dammit did i seriously misread that post LOL o well, strike that point then.
Alright then everyone has two options here as to what they want to believe.
1. I'm mafia. I just went from "probably town or Godfather" by posting without fear because I'm continuing to post completely unfearfully and want to get someone lynched instead of sitting back and letting the town do stupid stuff like speculate about setup or ask pointless questions such as "r u mafia" OR 2. I'm town. I think this guy who obsesses over power roles and night actions instead of lynching mafia is scum, but misread one of his posts. He votes for dubious reasons, dismisses any arguments brought against him while not addressing anything but the weakest points ("here, let me quote an old post, that will allay any fears!") or scumhunting. Also, his initial statement on Amiko basically rehashes what mine was and Lord Tolkien confusingly had his vote on him for the longest time despite "not being sold" or Amiko providing a "decent defense" because he wanted to lynch for information instead of lynching to kill scum.
Lord Tolkien has contributed nothing new despite having a multitude of posts other than attacking me just now.
Let's tango.
Again, I'm fine with a double lynch. If I get lynched and I turn up green or blue, you lynch OnceKing. Or have vig shoot him. I'm perfectly fine with the trade. If I'm red, you got me. I'm sure this is acceptable to everyone? Or you guys can lynch him and then lynch me afterwards, whomever you feel is more scummy. I'm fine with the trade.
Thus far you've been nitpicking irrelevant details in my post or making baseless, half-founded accusations. Your filter reads as either a particularly zealous town, or a mafia actively trying to confuse everyone. I'm fine with the trade, up to you guys.
On February 17 2014 16:28 theDragoon wrote: @Lord Tolkien, you didn't exactly call out IAmRobik as scum but you did say that IAR's posts point towards scum.
AND you say that you don't think IAmRobik is scummy, just inactive when you've clearly called out some of his posts as making him scummy, so what gives?
I believe he is correct.
I should've made it clearer, then. My sentence structures can get meandering at times. Again, I blame lack of editing capabilities and a late night. I meant that he was a lurker, and not scummy in his read-through. Look above. Or you can cite the posts where I call him scummy; there's only one, and it was in reference to Cavalinho.
Can you tell me why you strongly believe OnceKing is mafia? He started the vote on Amiko, which gained a bit of ground then switched to you. If he was mafia, why would he switch from Amiko, who was getting a lot of suspicious looks from people, including yourself. He said he wanted to split votes to generate more discussion, which isn't really a scum move and it favors town since mafia can't easily bandwagon.
I'm not entirely coherent at this hour now, but I'll do my best (at worst I'll post a clarifying post later).
My initial impression of him was either that he was mafia actively attempting to shape and lead the discussion, or a particularly proactive town member. I wasn't entirely sure which one he was (and it is possible Calvainho was also), which is why I supported the lynch against Amiko, as I noted time and again, and was willing to move forward on Day 2 depending on which way he flipped. If he was red, then cool. If green, there's enough basis for a trade. That was my reasoning. If you feel it's flawed and a mistake, fine, whatever, but that was my reasoning.
On OnceKing, thus far, he's ultimately lead us to look at the most random, meaningless details in his post. See his initial accusation on Amiko, which was valid at the time. He's been encouraging other people to make the brunt of the cases and arguments, and hasn't ACTUALLY contributed to them to begin with. He brought up the case against me after Amiko brought up his analysis of my vote and my apparent apathy vote. After that, he cobbled together a case that consisted of meaningless details and red herrings. My joke read on Beneather for instance, or my injection of (newbie) into a post.
Thus to me, he's been bandwagoning his case after Amiko raised his valid points, and largely making a big deal about meaningless details in my filter.
Now it's also entirely possible both of us are town, and my read on him is wrong, and he is indeed just a zealous townie pouncing on meaningless details. In which case, a double-lynch would potentially result in town losing if there are 3 mafia and they get a night kill (or one turn away from it if roleblock and vet come into play).
That would be unfortunate, so I'll let you guys decide whether or not he is.
My big issue with the lynches being discussed is that I don't think Amiko and Lord Tolkein can be a team. I seriously doubt Tolkein would bus him so easily and without further discussion, as pointed out by Beneather. If one is town, the other is mafia. I don't think there would be a reason for them to just randomly vote each other with so much at stake in such an active, unspammy d1.
My primary scumreads, as of right this moment, are Amiko, Lord Tolkein, and IAmRobik. Amiko has put together some analysis, but winds up coming to completely different conclusions from what I'm thinking. IAmRobik has pointlessly defended Amiko earlier and completely dropped off the radar after giving a spineless answer early on.
(For the record, I think IAmRobik is scum because of the way he was pointlessly defending Amiko earlier, by using the exact same reasoning that makes Amiko suspicious.)
And OnceKing is my strong townread as of right now. I see absolutely no reason for anyone to vote him for any reason, so Lord Tolkein voting him makes my stomach churn.
I've also noticed that I'm starting to get really aggravated from Amiko's attacks on me; I know that I'm town, and I'm already losing my patience with someone trying to find hidden meaning in my accusations. Instead of just trying to tunnel him, I propose we all start following a more rigid guideline for this first lynch in order to stop all the OMGUS'ing going on.
I think we all need to come to some sort of conclusion from the information we've gotten and the reactions we've received so far before making any other moves. We have a bunch of solid analysis going around and a clear, short, concise thread to work with. We should isolate our possible lynches to a smaller number of people and see what happens. Maybe the extra pressure will lead to some new insights.
On February 17 2014 16:57 Cavalinho wrote: My big issue with the lynches being discussed is that I don't think Amiko and Lord Tolkein can be a team. I seriously doubt Tolkein would bus him so easily and without further discussion, as pointed out by Beneather. If one is town, the other is mafia. I don't think there would be a reason for them to just randomly vote each other with so much at stake in such an active, unspammy d1.
It is entirely possible that we are both town. That is another possibility that you forgot to mention, and I am perfectly willing to accept that I was willing to lynch another townie. As I noted, it was a lynch for further info on you and OnceKing. I have stated this before, and I will continue to state this; I was not sure if my read on OnceKing was either a moderate town read or a mafia read. I'm still not entirely sure about you being mafia or town. Your analysis at times has had holes, both in post where you discussed Night 1 possibilities. If you think that's a mistake, fine. But that was my take on the situation.
(For the record, I think IAmRobik is scum because of the way he was pointlessly defending Amiko earlier, by using the exact same reasoning that makes Amiko suspicious.)
So this is assuming Amiko is scum. Very possible still, mind you, and having him actually contribute Day 1 would be very nice, but his read isn't strong for me. Reads far more like a patient lurker at this time, which could just as well mean he's a blue role. Or you are right, and he could be red.
It might be worth bringing up, actually.
And OnceKing is my strong townread as of right now. I see absolutely no reason for anyone to vote him for any reason, so Lord Tolkein voting him makes my stomach churn.
And why is he a strong town-read for you?
I've also noticed that I'm starting to get really aggravated from Amiko's attacks on me; I know that I'm town, and I'm already losing my patience with someone trying to find hidden meaning in my accusations. Instead of just trying to tunnel him, I propose we all start following a more rigid guideline for this first lynch in order to stop all the OMGUS'ing going on.
You should stop being annoyed by it, because people naturally get scummy reads on accusers, especially Day 1. If they're town, they'll think it's scummy. If they're scum, they'll call you scummy. OnceKing's accusations have made me review his filter and chronology a second time, closely, for instance, and followup on my initial gut impression.
I should note is that he started asking for reads after I made my initial list of reads, and listed him as either town or scum. His attempts to encourage discussion and push on me occurred after that (I'm reading this as his attempting to establish a town read0; he was not involved in the case against Amiko outside the initial post, which may simply just be an attempt to confuse people (or convince people that they aren't working together; either way).
Your suggestion is sound, however. I'll lay it down. To open a case, one person proposes a person to be lynched and examined. When one case is open, you can't raise another person up for lynching. If people agree, that person gets voted for lynching, if not, the case can be closed and another person can be proposed after X number of votes to be overturned (say majority-1).
This would be for future lynchings; I doubt it'll suffice for the Day 1 lynching given limited time.
I'm perfectly fine of you guys want to raise a vote or case on me right now, as long as you lynch OnceKing or shoot him when I turn up green or blue. If I end up red and he's correct, yay for town. If I'm not, I'd like some post-mortem followup on my read.
...worst comes to worst, we're both town, but I'm pretty sure he's scum at this point.
My personal impression is that it is unlikely that Cal~ is not working with Amiko with the sniping, unless it's a masterful ploy of misdirection which is working beautifully. So both can't be mafia. Either they are both town or one of them is mafia, but not both.
It is possible for Amiko and OnceKing to both be mafia, one of them mafia, or both be town (the last I'm now incredibly doubtful of given my read of OnceKing).
Reads: My read of Cal is that his analysis is at times lacking. For instance the recent mentioning of Amiko and me both being town, which confuses things, as I accepted that he could as well be town during my reasoning. The other was the discussion of what happens Day 2 after the flip. Either you or Amiko are scum, or both are town. My current impression here is muddled.
Amiko is still very possibly scum. See above.
I may need to update my read of OnceKing further to make it cognizant, but I stated it already and everyone is clear about it now. Wasn't sure when the case was going on, but since then it's been increasingly glaring to me.
I would like to see more contribution from IAmRodrik, and bringing up a case against him might spark that. If you want to do that, go ahead (either now or Day 2, up to you guys).
Actually, that's a very good idea you have. I say we do that to stop the rampant OMGUS'ing going on right now. I'm just going to copy paste it into a quote for easier access later on.
From LT:
Your suggestion is sound, however. I'll lay it down. To open a case, one person proposes a person to be lynched and examined. When one case is open, you can't raise another person up for lynching. If people agree, that person gets voted for lynching, if not, the case can be closed and another person can be proposed after X number of votes to be overturned (say majority-1).
I should note is that he started asking for reads after I made my initial list of reads, and listed him as either town or scum. His attempts to encourage discussion and push on me occurred after that (I'm reading this as his attempting to establish a town read0; he was not involved in the case against Amiko outside the initial post, which may simply just be an attempt to confuse people (or convince people that they aren't working together; either way).
Err. It was my asking that prompted you to post your list. Check this out:
On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
##vote Amiko
Depending on the flip: 1) Die scum die 2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town
What? Of course it matters man. Who do you think is scum?
Given the current information set I have (which is limited):
Amiko: moderately leaning scum, not entirely convinced but very possible and the most "scummy" looking we have atm OnceKing: Leaning town or leaning Godfather at this point, I'd say the former, but the latter is certainly possible; does depend on how Amiko flips Cavalinho: Also depends on how Amiko flips, either slight scum or moderate town; his current posts have me fairly slanted towards the latter Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility. Beneather: slightly scummy just for voting for me. i aint no mafia bish~ Everyone else are lurkers I can't get a read on. Beneather falls in this category too. Either blues or reds most likely.
I'm going to go to class and reread the thread. Beneather, n1k0 and IAmRobik are way too quiet for my liking -- this, at least, we can all agree on.
I dont see much value in going after n1k0 as a lynch, he'll be modkilled if he doesnt post in the next 12 hours anyway. If he posts to just get through to the next day then that draws a massive amount of questioning onto him for the next day.
My post more more just curiosity as to whether he's here lurking, or just completely afk.
On February 16 2014 12:22 Cavalinho wrote: Let the games begin. I've been dying for the game to start.
dying ehh? Let the dying begin ##vote cavalinho
Lets take this outside, I don't even care. Hold my earrings.
##vote IAmRobik
Whereas some people find this post by Amiko to be scummy, I think the opposite. I like this post a lot:
On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote: I don't really know how to start a good discussion d1 but here is at least a little information me I can volunteer: This will be my first forum mafia game! I have read a few threads but I do not recognize any of the players in this game. I have played epicmafia sometimes and have watched a few streams (pope, ring, ello, koibu). I am townsided this game. I will be up for another hour or so tonight, but usually I do not post early in the mornings here though (US MST).
So far I like that Beneather asked about the modpost for innocent child! Thanks for remembering.
When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote
Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one:
On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow
I don't know what this says about OnceKing's alignment, but the fact that he jumps on Amiko's post is pretty meh in my opinion. Amiko makes, what I consider to be, a good post and onceking focuses on the fact that it's long and has no content? Besides length, none of the posts really have content up to this point...I will say though that I like the fact that Onceking actually provided some conent here. Probably more towny, but still don't like this post overall:
On February 17 2014 05:05 OnceKing wrote: Alright guys, here's what I think -- Amiko is lookin' awfully shady.
Why? Look at his introductory post. What do you immediately note about it? Probably that it's huge (relative to the rest of the posts this game). So this by itself doesn't mean anything. But let's examine the contents of this post. Paragraph 1: Random stuff about not having played before, a random claim to be townie when no one asked, and other filler. Oh, and an excuse to be regularly inactive. This is all filler. Paragraph 2: Gives a list of inactives like three hours into the game and promises he'll be back after refusing to actually cast suspicion on anyone.
All in all, there's really no reason for this post to be so large and say so much fluff unless he's just trying to look helpful. ##VOTE Amiko
Not gonna quote the end of the page, but Cavalinho is securing himself as my top town read based off of how freely he is speaking with regard to the Amiko situation and how openly he is aligning himself with OnceKing. This doesn't mean that I think OnceKing is town, but I don't think that Cavalinho's logic would be so easy to follow if he was mafia.
Soooo, I'm not liking Tolkien for this post. 1) I don't think that we should really be discussing any roles. Mafia needs to find town roles. Town will figure out town roles as they get revealed, or as people claim. 2) Amiko's spreadsheet should have no influence on whether Tolkien thinks Amiko is maf or town. 3) Letting people skate under the radar is so bad. If we lynch people that aren't participating early on, it makes it easier to lynch people who have been speaking later if needed. It's more difficult for mafia to type openly and freely because they have to make up arguments having perfect information. So mafia is less likely to post. Also, people who speak a lot are easier to reread later in the game. If you wait until the end, someone who is lurking and not posting a lot is gonna be more likely to be mislynched later, whereas if you leave someone with a lot of content alive later, it will be easier to figure out if they're town or scum. <--- this was worded really awkwardly and it's really long run-on-y, but whatever. I just wanted to get that out there.
On February 17 2014 06:03 Lord Tolkien wrote: Alright, since we're apparently getting into srs bzns the opening of Day 1,
1) Given the last of mod post, I'm going to assume that there isn't an innocent child. That also means we might not have other roles either.
2) On Amiko, he's (she's?) been helpful thus far at least in providing a spreadsheet copy for us to use. That being said, his post-role post is, as you guys noted, is kinda scummy.
On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote:When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote
I disagree with this point. There's no reason to lynch lurkers Day 1 where there's limited information for them to participate anyways. The later the game goes, the more valid an option it becomes. But right now this post was pretty incredibly unhelpful, even if I do appreciate the town read.
That being said, for an opening post I'm not yet entirely convinced to bandwagon. I'd prefer a stronger case to be brought up.
The bolded below is Amiko more gracefully explaining what I was trying to say above:
On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote: Oh, two other points:
(1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate-
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
(2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts?
I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity
Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day.
This reads as genuine anger and frustration to me. Leaning more towny on OnceKing:
On February 17 2014 07:29 OnceKing wrote: Uh, who CARES if any of us have prior experience in a different situation? And why does this being a newbie game mean we should be more forgiving towards scummy posts? This will only let scum hide even more.
And now I'll respond to what Amiko wrote hopefully convincing others to put up their votes and cases:
On February 17 2014 05:34 Amiko wrote: I think this early the only information we have is on ourselves - votes change too much to mean anything unless you give some kind of reasons for your actions. So I am glad to explain why I may vote for people (being idle) or the only town read I had at the time (Lord Tolkein asking about innocent child).
I don't like OneKing's reasoning for voting me, though - (1) you want to discourage long posts, which I think hurts town (2) you classify saying you are town as scumsided rather than neutral (3) you claim (probably joking) that you are clear, and (4) providing the time you shouldn't expect posts from me (morning MST) merely provides a time, I'm sure there are times you sleep/commute as well and I would like to know them so you don't have an excuse for silence down the line. That said, I think OnceKing is acting slightly townsided because he has at least started some discussion by giving a reason for his vote, even if it is misguided.
Moving forward, I see Cavalinho's post as scummy - Cavalinho, what were your reasons for wanting to lynch me? The same reasons as OnceKing, or is there anything else to add? If you wanted to suggest voting me, why not suggest it in your earlier post?
1) No. I am NOT discouraging long posts. *I* had a relatively long post. I am encouraging CONSTRUCTIVE posts, and discouraging people posting a bunch of crap and pretending that it's good just because of its length. 2) Completely and randomly out of place. What was the context of you saying this? Nothing, it was just... there. For no reason whatsoever, as compared to Cavalinho's statement that he was cleared or cleared people or whatever in the context of banter about being clear. 3) No 4) Ok yes this makes sense but I'm not convinced this isn't a reason you made up to justify your excuses.
Congrats, you're completely misinterpreting what I've said (points 1 and 2) or said something completely wrong (point 3). I'm only more convinced you're scum now.
On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote: Oh, two other points:
(1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate-
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
(2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts?
I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity
Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day.
For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary).
Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players.
I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no.
So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho.
Except he hasn't provided any actual reason as to why I'm scum aside from voting him after agreeing with OnceKing. At best, his entire line of rationale can be classified as OMGUS; even then, it isn't a good one, as he is trying to push what he perceives as the weakest line of reasoning against the people pushing him right now.
He says voting is scummy, but outing reads is not. But then I call him on it and he says that voting isn't scummy and the fact that I think he's mafia after someone else posted all of the things I was already thinking of is scummy. But he already said that outing reads isn't scummy.
His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him.
His rationale was that you stated that you had originally pegged his post as scummy, but didn't post until after OnceKing made the initial case. Which, honestly, in the current Day 1 climate of no info is as decently sound as we'll get.
Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do.
I may be painting a target on my back to get mafia-killed, but whatever.
This is also bad:
On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
##vote Amiko
Depending on the flip: 1) Die scum die 2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town
Thoughts on page 6: THERE'S WAY TO MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHO COP SHOULD CHECK AND WHATNOT. LET THE COP MAKE HIS/HER OWN DECISIONS AND WHEN HE/SHE DECIDES TO OUT, WE'LL GET THE INFORMATION THEN. (I agree with what cavalinho says though).
This is because in a completely vanilla game of forum mafia w/ 9 players it's 2 maf, 1 cop, 6 town. In that format, the cop gets a n0 check and maf doesn't have a n0 kp though, so we'll see what adjustments were made by the mod.
On February 17 2014 06:19 IAmRobik wrote: Let's not talk about roles There are maximum 3 maf
Is that from experience, or a (logical) guess?
Up to this point, Valenius has done nothing but post random, uninteresting stuff and talk about game setup. Talking about game setup is an easy way for scum to look active without providing any content.
And then I come across this beauty by OnceKing expressing exactly what I did above:
On February 17 2014 09:26 OnceKing wrote: can we please focus more on scumhunting and less on setup... Valenius what are your reads? More specifically I'd like to know what you think of Cavalinho and Lord Tolkien but other reads are welcome.
I kinda like theDragoon's posts in the middle of page 7 and I am willing to remove him from my lynch list for today. While I don't agree w/ him on the conclusion regarding Amiko, I am 100% in agreement with the conclusion and case that he laid out with regards to Cavalinho being town
If I have to see Tolkien post again about how he can/cannot be blue, I'm gonna pull my eyes out. STOP DOING THIS. It's hurtful to town if you're actually town!!!!
On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote: @Lord Tolkien:
Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility.
I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take?
I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot.
Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices.
This is an excellent analysis post from Amiko and totally makes sense from his perspective. To answer his question regarding my lack of follow up, I don't know that OnceKing responded, but I really didn't care too much. I figured I should null read everyone and just assume that both mafia/town would have gotten some guidance from their coach if their post sounds too good:
On February 17 2014 12:46 Amiko wrote: Some thoughts:
Cavalinho: Let's start here. As I said earlier, I think his suggestion that he wanted to vote for me but didn't act on it is scummy. What makes it worse is this post, where he does something similar:
On February 17 2014 07:56 Cavalinho wrote:What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him.
Again, Cavalinho says he had a thought or analysis, but didn't act on it. He doesn't say what points he agreed or disagreed with, and is attempting to align himself with another player without offering anything.
I read players that bandwagon without providing reasons as more likely to be mafia than noncontributing players. If Beneather or n1k0 provide a post with nothing more than a vote, I would raise the same criticism about them. Idle players are good when we lack information, but when someone acts scummy and continues to act scummy they take a higher priority.
But, it gets worse for Cavalinho. First he said he wanted to vote for me before the first vote. Then, he said he was probably on the right track. Then he said he considered Lord Tolkein, but decided he should still go after me.
On February 17 2014 08:33 Cavalinho wrote:There's still more than 24 hours left for today's votes. Don't forget that. We have all the time in the world. I'm not even 100% on the Amiko lynch yet, so I might take my vote down just so we can get more reads.
If Cavalinho wanted more reads, this was the absolute wrong way to end the post. He should be pressuring the people he wants reads from. I see this post as trying to appear unsure - I think it's clear that my number one suspicion was on him, so when I flip town it'll look bad for him, so this is an opportunity to start looking for someone he can target on day 2. This is hedging his bets and it isn't doing anything for town.
IAmRobik: I have a slight scum read on him because of the ambiguity of his post.
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
It doesn't say he agrees or disagrees. And, he doesn't follow up on his question at all. I think he should explain his posts and provide some analysis or at least weigh in on one side or the other for my post..
On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
If you are town, it should be super relevant whether I am mafia. I've given some explanation of my playstyle and I'm the focus of day 1. If you are town, you should be wondering about my side because it may be the only information you get going into day 2. If you are town, why are you willing to enter the next day with as little information as you have? This is at worst a scumslip, and at best it's the wrong attitude to have. I don't want to base too much off this comment, but it made him lean scum for me.
OnceKing: I discussed OnceKing somewhat earlier. In summary, although he is voting for me and I am town, I think he's at least directed town toward some useful discussion and provided reasoning. More importantly, he's followed that up by pressuring for thoughts of other players. I don't like that he is leading a lynch on me, but and I think he has selectively misinterpreted my posts twice. But as I said before I think this is town-favored play because it has helped conversation..
theDragoon & Valenius: I'm not sure. They have contributed a little but I don't have a read yet. I would like to ask both, if you were to pick someone other than me to lynch, who would you pick and why? If I am lynched and flip green, what will your thoughts be on Cavalinho &
Beneather, [b]n1ko[b/]: Nothing to read yet. I would also like to know what they think of Cavalinho since I fingered him in response. I'd also like to know whether they can commit to being more active in the coming days because right now we have no information to use.
Regardless of whether you agree with me, I think you should at least be dissatisfied with the contributions you have gotten from most of town today. I hope you do not vote me, I will certainly keep on contributing while I am alive. Hopefully I can persuade you to change your minds to avoid a mislynch.
IAmRobik: You say some posts by Lord Tolkien are bad. Why are they bad? Just pointing out random things and calling them bad isn't going to help us.
N1k0: You say you've been lurking but you've only got one read? What about the enormous mess between Lord Tolkien and myself?? What's your opinion on that situation?
On February 18 2014 01:08 OnceKing wrote: IAmRobik: You say some posts by Lord Tolkien are bad. Why are they bad? Just pointing out random things and calling them bad isn't going to help us.
N1k0: You say you've been lurking but you've only got one read? What about the enormous mess between Lord Tolkien and myself?? What's your opinion on that situation?
The sentiment has already been expressed. It's absolutely nonsensical as a town to prioritize lynching for information on d1. The conclusions he draws are poor and the rationale behind his desire to have Amiko lynched is bad as well.
On February 18 2014 00:26 IAmRobik wrote: Pages 4 and 5:
This post is super scummy:
On February 16 2014 12:21 Valenius wrote: Good evening I'm heading to bed now, UK Time (03:00), see you all in a bit!
I would love to hear your reason for this.
Why bother posting that at all? You wanted to be seen in the thread and to instantly leave. That's silly, counterproductive and just scummy in general.
I was excited that the game had started, and was letting people know Id be back later on. Only reason.
As for your post at the top of this page regarding setup (Id quote but mobile editting is hard), thats the exact sort of answer I was looking for. Im playing in a newbie game because I dont know how a completely vanilla game of forum mafia runs, why would you expect me to know that?
I don't expect you to know that. I do expect you to do something other than discuss game mechanics. Honestly though, who cares how many mafia there are? Worry about finding them!
On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote: I don't really know how to start a good discussion d1 but here is at least a little information me I can volunteer: This will be my first forum mafia game! I have read a few threads but I do not recognize any of the players in this game. I have played epicmafia sometimes and have watched a few streams (pope, ring, ello, koibu). I am townsided this game. I will be up for another hour or so tonight, but usually I do not post early in the mornings here though (US MST).
So far I like that Beneather asked about the modpost for innocent child! Thanks for remembering.
When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote
Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one:
On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow
I don't know what this says about OnceKing's alignment, but the fact that he jumps on Amiko's post is pretty meh in my opinion. Amiko makes, what I consider to be, a good post and onceking focuses on the fact that it's long and has no content? Besides length, none of the posts really have content up to this point...I will say though that I like the fact that Onceking actually provided some conent here. Probably more towny, but still don't like this post overall:
On February 17 2014 05:05 OnceKing wrote: Alright guys, here's what I think -- Amiko is lookin' awfully shady.
Why? Look at his introductory post. What do you immediately note about it? Probably that it's huge (relative to the rest of the posts this game). So this by itself doesn't mean anything. But let's examine the contents of this post. Paragraph 1: Random stuff about not having played before, a random claim to be townie when no one asked, and other filler. Oh, and an excuse to be regularly inactive. This is all filler. Paragraph 2: Gives a list of inactives like three hours into the game and promises he'll be back after refusing to actually cast suspicion on anyone.
All in all, there's really no reason for this post to be so large and say so much fluff unless he's just trying to look helpful. ##VOTE Amiko
Not gonna quote the end of the page, but Cavalinho is securing himself as my top town read based off of how freely he is speaking with regard to the Amiko situation and how openly he is aligning himself with OnceKing. This doesn't mean that I think OnceKing is town, but I don't think that Cavalinho's logic would be so easy to follow if he was mafia.
I don't like the first four parts of this post where Robik just labels posts as either scummy or towny without providing any reason why. Can you tell us why you think those posts are scummy/towny?
-First one has to do with the pop-in pop-out. It's a way of participating without actually participating. -Second one has to do with tone...the joking nature + general carefree posting makes it sound towny to me. -Third one has to do with tone as well, specifically "all the early voting made me lol a bit". No one actually lol's because of the early voting. If he wants to say that from his perspective the early voting is silly that's one thing. But "lol a bit" is just awkward and makes it sound like he's faking emotion and forcing his post. -And finally, the fourth one has been explained. Not sure that I can explain it any more/better than I already did.
Not to mention that that one post from OnceKing did not influence my final determination and have him as town. In general, I thought his post was a bit too aggressive and his case on Amiko was poor, but I think that it's more towny than scummy.
On February 18 2014 01:08 OnceKing wrote: IAmRobik: You say some posts by Lord Tolkien are bad. Why are they bad? Just pointing out random things and calling them bad isn't going to help us.
N1k0: You say you've been lurking but you've only got one read? What about the enormous mess between Lord Tolkien and myself?? What's your opinion on that situation?
Amiko He's more likely to be town than maf, in the case hes red hes more likley to be Godfather than Roleblocker or Goon( tho i dont think theres any roleblockers since we are only 9 players) so i wouldnt waste an investigation on him since him being a Goon is the less likely scenario. Why do i think he likely to be the Godfather in the scenario he is mafia? because of him trying to drive the conversation at the start of the day and then fading away. That being said i feel hes more likely to be town because of the fact that he hasn't been trying to deflect the threats he has received, but instead he been posting with the interest of town in his mind instead of trying to save himself.
Cavalinho At the moment i feel like hes the most likely to be a red since his fast jump on OnceKing's accusation of Amiko, i feel like he saw an opportunity to get some traction behind a lynch early and jumped on it. In the case Cavalinho ends up being red that would probably mean OnceKing is town since i dont think they would both vote so quickly on the same target if they both were mafia.
Lord Tolkien I dont really know what to think, hes trying hard to get someone lynched and as soon as he saw the case against Amiko losing traction he switched his stance and went against OnceKing. He's seems to be pushing for any lynch as long as its one that would have an important effect on the lynch on d2 which i feel worried about since we dont really know how many mafia there are and getting a townie (or even a blue) lynched against 3 reds would put us on a hard position. Ultimately i'm leaning to think hes town since he appears to be ok with him getting lynched as long as it results in a lynch of OnceKing on d2 who he believes to be mafia (tho he could be bluffing).
OnceKing I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town. In the possible scenario that im wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone.
For the momment im gonna go with the ##vote Cavalinho but i'm not too confident on it
I would like to hear from everybody on the two big topics of today: Cavalinho and Lord Tolkien/Me.
Valenius, you've been up and about! But you've almost completely avoided the topic of the argument between Lord Tolkien and me, what's up? And what do you make of these two situations?
On February 18 2014 03:50 OnceKing wrote: I would like to hear from everybody on the two big topics of today: Cavalinho and Lord Tolkien/Me.
Valenius, you've been up and about! But you've almost completely avoided the topic of the argument between Lord Tolkien and me, what's up? And what do you make of these two situations?
My last few posts have been trying to figure what exactly Robik's issues are with my posting so far. I've been honest in all of my posts, and although I can understand his views on the game setup questions, I was only seeking clarification (on whether I was mis-interpreting the rules). Whilst I feel the number of mafia does have a clear impact on the game as it progresses, I'm dropping that discussion for today. My main issue with his post at the top of page 10 is his comment on my posts only being random and uninteresting. I posted my reads at your request, and tried to contribute on the lynching lurkers issue.
I've got a reasonable town feel for Cavalinho. As mentioned earlier, his defense of jumping onto Amiko was not perfect, but adequate enough to stop me hunting him for that. His general play to me has seemed townie, and would be generally going along with what i'd choose. His comment
Checking the more outspoken players such as you, me, Amiko, and OnceKing is a poor strategy. We can gather reads on each other by watching as we push our agendas throughout the game.
is one that I'm agreeing with at the moment. There's enough posts by the 'main' bunch so far to provide reads as the game progresses.
I can't get a solid read on LT. As I put in my original reads, I thought you and LT were the most likely to be town at that point, but those were best guesses at the time. I still believe you're a reasonably safe town choice, and looking back the reckless voting on Amiko seems a bit scummy. (I missed this post the first time round)
I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
##vote Amiko
Depending on the flip: 1) Die scum die 2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town
I could understand this post coming sometime around now, if there was a lack of pressure on anyone else, but not really still in D1.
Overall, I'd be choosing between IAmRobik / LT / Amiko. The issue with this is, I can't see LT having pushed so hard (see above) on Amiko that early in the game if they were bros.
Two options: 1) you read my posts (which you clearly did since you're referring to them) and you're just retyping exactly what I wrote 2) you read my posts and are drawing your own conclusions that are the SAME EXACT CONCLUSIONS that I drew.
Overall I nothing in your posts has struck me as terribly odd which is why I haven't been on your back. I did think Amiko was mafia at the beginning when I made my post but after his large post "Some thoughts" I now think he's town. The rationale behind this is simply that the post provided new content and drew conclusions from information.
I disagree with you on a number of reads, but that's fine: Valenius -- yes, he began the game by speculating on setup but since then has been giving reads. n1k0 -- I'm now unsure what to make of him, perhaps leaning town. He believes that Tolkien and I are both town which is fine, but he expresses doubt in his own vote which I absolutely detest.
From reading IAmRobik's filter though I see that he's still voting for theDragoon -- while this was reasonable at the beginning of the day I feel that he's been trying to contribute and think there are much better candidates now (mainly Lord Tolkien). If you're convinced that the mafia are Tolkien and Valenius why is your vote not on them?
LT/Amiko would be my other choices, and as I stated I cant get a solid read on LT, so i'm avoiding the LT/Amiko vote for the moment.
It's mostly your pushing on me after I was first to bring you up, and I'm not particularly fond of the way you called my posts useless, when your two first posts were incredibly short and added no value. I could understand that comment (more so, I'd still disagree about the uselessness) if it were coming who'd been contributing throughout the first few pages, but not from you at that stage.
Why? They were useless. Any discussion of game mechanics is filler. It gives the illusion of providing content without actually doing it. People think "wow, this guy is talking about the game and trying to figure out what the setup is so that he can figure out the game" when in fact, it's just speculating on something that no one really needs to worry about at this point in order to look like you are contributing, instead of providing reads. You FINALLY provided some reads after 10 posts.
Additionally, I'm fairly certain that Cavalinho was the first to ping me as suspicious
Additionally, while my first post may not have contributed anything of value, my second posts and subsequent posts did.
On February 18 2014 05:01 IAmRobik wrote: Why? They were useless. Any discussion of game mechanics is filler. It gives the illusion of providing content without actually doing it. People think "wow, this guy is talking about the game and trying to figure out what the setup is so that he can figure out the game" when in fact, it's just speculating on something that no one really needs to worry about at this point in order to look like you are contributing, instead of providing reads. You FINALLY provided some reads after 10 posts.
Additionally, I'm fairly certain that Cavalinho was the first to ping me as suspicious
Additionally, while my first post may not have contributed anything of value, my second posts and subsequent posts did.
6 or 7 posts if you're counting my comment on lynching policy, but I get your point. If you want to read them that way, okay, but as I've said before they were genuine questions, not meant for massive discussion points.
Looking through your filter, I apologise. I pretty much ignored most of the first hour or two of random votes that lead nowhere. The 'first two' posts that i've been referring to are the
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
and
On February 17 2014 06:19 IAmRobik wrote: Let's not talk about roles There are maximum 3 maf
Although I'm still not sold on Robik being entirely townie, I'd really like to bring up the details of my lynch. The only reason people are considering me as of right now are because I jumped on the chance to vote Amiko. I'd like everyone to sit down and give me a serious answer as to why this is scummy.
I still have a scumread on Cavalinho. I think I’ve spent a lot of time discussing him so although I’ll discuss his posts some, I will try to focus this post on other people.
OnceKing’s comments on Lord Tolkien (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20816932) Although I’ve indicated I dislike Tolkien’s post earlier, I felt yesterday that I wished for more to go on. OnceKing’s points made me take another look at him. It’s tough. I agree with most of OnceKing’s points on Lord Tolkien, but disagree with a few: (1) I still think experience is a useful metric. Though, I grant that I haven’t found much use for it yet in this game. (2) I don’t understand why commenting on the game setup is something scummy/towny. OnceKing mentions it with a (meh) so I’m not sure which way he leans on the issue. I see this as neutral, I think - we can only guess at which town and mafia roles are in the game, but I think it’s at least educated guessing. (3) I don’t put much into his highlighting the “(newbie)” comment made by Tolkien. I also see this as neutral.
Re-evaluating Lord Tolkien OnceKing did make me look into Lord Tolkien more in this post. I do have at least one thing to add:
In this post, Tolkien says he won’t speculate on night actions.
On February 17 2014 14:38 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not going to speculate on night actions at this point of time yet, as there are too many variables to account for outside of a mafia kill.
But, this earlier post is doing just that:
On February 17 2014 08:45 Lord Tolkien wrote: Just thought of something. The other option is if Amiko flips green or blue, and two of the (currently) three people advocating the lynch are red. Mafia will probably kill the non-red active player at night, and from what it currently stands, the two can lead the town into a self-lynching orgy. Also possible.
I'm leaning towards there being 2 mafia, but it's also possible that there's 3 (highly unlikely I think given only 9 players, but possible?). We'll see.
I see this as somewhat scummy because it is inconsistent – why will he comment on night actions in one post but not another?
On February 17 2014 16:03 Lord Tolkien wrote: How about this: if you guys do and I turn up green or blue, you guys lynch OnceKing?
Because I'm now pretty sure you're scum after this post, and a town for a mafia is a pretty sure trade.
I get the point he is making here, but I don’t really like this play. As someone who was just accused a lot, it never occurred to me to offer myself as today’s lynch in exchange for killing someone else tomorrow. So, I see this as a strange statement.
Frankly, neither of these posts are damning. I see them as unusual plays, but I know I’m still feeling my own playstyle out. I want to reread IAmRobik and Valenius’ more recent posts, but these comments make me like lynching Tolkien as an alternative to Cavalinho would be acceptable though not ideal.
OnceKing’s Rescind on Me I wish I had more to say on this. If OnceKing is mafia, he does have a little to gain by unvoting me because I have said (and at least for now, will continue to say) that I read him as town. So, it is possible that he is pocketing me as someone who trusts him. If he’s mafia, this also gives him some credibility, because if I were voted off I would flip town, and some players might question him as the person who led the initial lynch on me.
Right now I do not think OnceKing is mafia, but I think it is important to analyze what he gains or loses.
Beneather (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20817073) The above post is all I think I can use for analysis. There’s not much to say, but here goes-
I don’t like that he opens by saying he doesn’t think Tolkien is scum, but the remainder of the post seems to argue (or suggest, since it doesn’t come down very hard) that he finds Tolkien scummy. He points to the troubling Tolkien post and mentions he does not understand why Tolkien thinks I am scummy.
I don’t have much to say about his scenario where I live and Tolkein is shot/potentially a veteran.
I see this post as more noncommittal than scummy. I at least want to see Beneather commit more. Beneather, if you don’t think Tolkien is scum, is there anything you see as weighing against him as town?
Beneather, what comments do you think are scummiest in the game so far? Your comments at the end of your post seem to suggest you want to leave me and Tolkein alive – who would you lynch?
Cavalinho’s Response to OnceKing (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20817116) I don’t think we waste time by attacking each other. We are giving town things to talk about and analysis they can agree or disagree with. At the least, we have given town reads and interactions between ourselves and the rest of town that they can use.
I hope that my activity will help everyone see me as town, but (as I said earlier) I think the best thing that’s come from the attacks on me is that town is starting to actively analyze things.
------
I need to re-read the posts by Valenius and IAmRobik, I’ll try to post some comments on those next.
On February 17 2014 14:06 Cavalinho wrote: I think it's ridiculous that I'm getting looked at as possible mafia because I agree with someone else's analysis. (For the record, I agree with all of what you said about it. Just in case this comes up again.)
To explain my reasoning on Cavalinho a little better, this is the kind of direct post I was looking for earlier. As I am looking at everyone in this thread, I want people to tell me what they agree or do not agree with.
I don't see the post as important. But I wanted to at least try to clarify to Cavalinho why I think most of us found his followup vote so scummy in case he is town.
Except nobody found it scummy except for two people. Almost every single other player in the game has a townread on me. Stop talking as if everyone shares the same views that you do, because they obviously don't.
To explain my reasoning on Cavalinho a little better, this is the kind of direct post I was looking for earlier. As I am looking at everyone in this thread, I want people to tell me what they agree or do not agree with.
I don't see the post as important. But I wanted to at least try to clarify to Cavalinho why I think most of us found his followup vote so scummy in case he is town.
You aren't even saying anything in this post. You say it's direct and that it matters, and then you're saying it doesn't matter.
Explain your scumread. Do it now. Stop beating around the bush and looking for things you can twist.
I wanted to include a little comment on him since recent posts have given more to analyze.
I think theDragoon makes good points when discussing Tolkien. I didn’t think of it earlier, but I like the questions he asked Tolkien, specifically where he questions (1) why Tolkien suggests he stuck his neck out and (2) questions him on OnceKing moving his vote from me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20817275).
I’ll talk more about Robik below, but I felt theDragoon’s post here was the exact right town response – Robik is taking some positions, but they seem off to me and there’s insufficient explanation. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819793). I would have liked to see theDragoon respond more as to what he agrees or disagrees with in Robik’s post, but it’s a start.
Based on this I’m seeing theDragoon as slightly town.
IAmRobik I like his posts even though we reached different conclusions. It seems to me IAmRobik has provides explanations for his actions when asked when questioned by me and OnceKing, and I’m glad he picked up in activity over the past few hours.
I commented on this post earlier, but I want to clarify one thing-
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
This post got raised a few times. I just wanted to say again, I think it is too ambiguous to use one way or another. It could mean IAmRobik is impressed with OnceKing’s argument – as in, “that’s a hell of an argument, I’m impressed, have you done this before.” Or it could mean it as a defense of me – as in, “that argument seems too good to come from a new player.”
I didn’t read the post strongly one way or the other, and I think his answer makes sense. I read him as more townsided at this time. I disagree with his read on Cavalinho.
Valenius I read his filter but I really don’t come away with anything I think is helpful to highlight and have to get back to work. I’ll try to take another look tonight if I'm not occupied with Cavalinho. --
Cavalinho: I just saw your last post, I'll put a quick post in response in a few minutes
Debated not making this, as no doubt someone will try and turn it into a negative.. anyhow:
I'm heading to bed. I'm leaving my vote on Robik, if only because I don't have enough of a read to switch it with what's been said since. I don't think he'll be lynched tonight either way.
Good luck for the next few hours, and I look forward to reading the outcomes in the morning.
On February 18 2014 06:38 Cavalinho wrote: Except nobody found it scummy except for two people. Almost every single other player in the game has a townread on me. Stop talking as if everyone shares the same views that you do, because they obviously don't.
To explain my reasoning on Cavalinho a little better, this is the kind of direct post I was looking for earlier. As I am looking at everyone in this thread, I want people to tell me what they agree or do not agree with.
I don't see the post as important. But I wanted to at least try to clarify to Cavalinho why I think most of us found his followup vote so scummy in case he is town.
You aren't even saying anything in this post. You say it's direct and that it matters, and then you're saying it doesn't matter.
Explain your scumread. Do it now. Stop beating around the bush and looking for things you can twist.
I have to work for a few hours, but if you want to go back and forth more I can try to go over it 3-4 hours from now. Here's the best summary I can provide for you. In exchange, I would appreciate if you provide comments on my two above posts. Tell us what you agree with and what you don't agree with. That's what you need to do to to help town. The post I made noted that you (finally) provided at least some direct explanation of your vote for me because you explained you agreed with OnceKing.
If it helps, the bolded statement above is a concise explanation of why I scumread you.
It is in mafia's interest to encourage voting for a town player. However, they don't want to stand out or draw attention. If they succeed, the player will flip town and people will question their logic because there is proof they were wrong.
In my view, this game moved from mostly meaningless day 1 voting to a game when OnceKing voted for me. He provided reasons for his vote that made it carry actual weight. In doing so, he started a vote on a town player.
Your post bandwagoned him without any meaningful commitment. I think it could be summarized as "me too" - when I flip town, you didn't provide anything that would incriminate yourself. Your post leaves you a lot of room: you can later say you weren't sure, or you agreed with OnceKing regarding discussing experience, but not about post length, or whatever suits your fancy.
In addition, you pretend that you had the idea beforehand, which I see as an attempt to align yourself with OnceKing without offering anything yourself.
You then make a very similar move where you indicate you were rethinking voting for me. Again, it doesn't offer anything except seeming to align yourself with a player without committing. If you thought through a player, you should be providing your reasoning (just as you are asking of me).
You also have indicated a few times that you want to scumhunt. But, I don't see you actively pressuring anyone.
I also dislike like that you read IAmRobik's comment as defending me when I read it as ambiguous/weird.
I wrote this hastily, so I'm sorry for points I missed or did not address adequately. If you want to understand my reasons for suspecting you, you'll find them better explained by reading my filter. Your section is in bold, and I think it's longer than everyone else's
I'll finish with this thought - I don't really think you and I are getting anywhere with this discussion and I'd rather spend time looking at other people. I'd like to see you lynched, but a lot of town doesn't - hopefully I can convince them that you are town in the coming days, or maybe you can convince me you are town with your play. To do that, please provide analysis, scumhunt, and when you vote make sure it's clear why.
Except I'm actively pressuring you you stupid asshole.
In case you haven't noticed, I'm actually trying very hard to focus on other things. But you ignore the shit that I've said before in regards to what OnceKing said. You can go ahead and look for it, because I'm not wasting my time explaining anything to you anymore. You are literally turning this into "you or me," and if we're both town, then everyone else is just sitting and watching while you try to reason something out of nothing.
I see absolutely no reason to let you live. You deliberately misread everything and your logic makes no sense. You're either shit town or mafia trying to save yourself.
But it's not like it actually matters what I'm saying here. I could say "smelly dick poop butt" and you would still think I'm mafia.
Now that I've had at least some rest, I'm just exasperated at this point.
Regarding Myself 1) Why on Earth would I make such an a fairly noticeable lynch vote on Amiko if I was mafia? If I were mafia and he were town, I could just soft-defend him given his town read on me and reap the credibility it would give me, instead of taking all this damn scrutiny. There's no benefit for me to try and make a lynch vote that early; instead I could switch reluctantly later or continue a basically null vote, and not be under scrutiny at all. No gain.
If he were scum and I were scum, similarly, why would I throw him under the bus in that manner? Unless to separate our allegiances if we flipped, but that's...still kinda a bad play, unless there's 3 mafia and you can afford it (or I am confident enough as a mafia player to run with it for the rest of the game). I doubt Amiko would agree to it if that's the case, though.
If he was mafia and I was town, then all very well and good, and if we were both town, then it would've been unfortunate, but as I said it was a vote I was willing to take to determine how Cavalinho and OnceKing fell.
I think we're all tired of this topic however, so I won't bring it up anymore.
@ Amiko: Regarding the non-speculation of night action; the post you cited was in response to Cavalinho's and to point out a hole in his analysis (which there have been a few thus far). I previously listed what the possible courses of actions might be depending on how mafia read me, but I have no idea how they will actually read me, so I'm not going to commit to saying I will eat a roleblock, or a shot, or blue shenanigans, just the possible actions they might take.
I was giving the possible motives and reasons why I would mention the veteran being possibly among me when people were questioning me), Cavalinho, and OnceKing, and the dearth of other blues.
@ IAmRobrik:
On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: Up to this point, Valenius has done nothing but post random, uninteresting stuff and talk about game setup. Talking about game setup is an easy way for scum to look active without providing any content.
Rereading his filter, you do raise some valid points. I still don't see why commenting on roles is a bad thing for town (mafia will be doing it anyways in their QT), but his comments, when pressed for reads on myself, Amiko, and Cavalinho, were skimpy and "safe". Nothing that wasn't already pointed out before by everyone else prior, and he was fairly non-antagonistic about it. It is a good avenue to explore and a read to pursue.
I disagree with you on Day 1 lurker lynching (it gives us nothing on Day 2 if there's a green flip), but that's irrelevant now.
On February 18 2014 05:01 IAmRobik wrote: Additionally, I'm fairly certain that Cavalinho was the first to ping me as suspicious
He was.
@ Beneather: Can you put forward your analysis now? I do hope you understand why I was willing to vote for Amiko after last night's series of posts, but you haven't contributed your reads and analysis yet.
Current reads: Valenius has largely been unhelpful Day 1, and has put out a nonsense vote. This either indicates he's still unsure (given our gamestate, entirely possible) and unwilling to commit, or is biding his time until later stages of the game. He reads, to me. It depends how he plays in Day 2. Beneather falls under this category too; I would put them under close scrutiny Day 2.
theDragoon is most probably town. The he was properly critical of a number of my errors, and was willing to ask for clarification, though his filter is very skimpy. Still, his posts have been useful contributions despite the dearth of them (thus far).
N1k0, I heavily disagree with his reasoning about Amiko being possible red. His first post wasn't much of an attempt to drive discussion, and he isn't playing very "godfathery" to me since. It was an introduction (unnecessary info about him self), a comment about my question about the lack of innocent child modpost, and raising a lurker lynch issue. It was abit scummy, and the best we had to go for at the time, but currently it doesn't sound like mafia talk. If you're going to vote for Cavalinho, I would like you to expand on your reasoning for him some more. At best either a weak town read or weak scum read. Additionally, I agree; Cavalinho and OnceKing can't both be red.
Unsure about IAmRobrik. He doesn't, currently, read strongly either way to me. I'd like more analysis as to why you order people the way you did.
My current strongest town read is currently Amiko, despite my earlier vote. He has, thus far, given clear answers, and given clear reasoning behind it, and they've been fairly strong thus far.
I am suspicious of Cavalinho; as I noted, his analysis has holes in it at times, some of which were "best case" red scenarios. Additional to that, his push on IAmRobrik at the time still strikes me as odd: it was at the time characteristics of a lurker, not a scum. As I stated earlier, neither of his Robrik's initial posts pointed towards him being scummy; the first post about experience is non-committal, and something I would discard largely. He's also probably red, given his attempts to deflect.
If he flips green, well fk. That makes double-lynching me and OnceKing far too risky.
I remain highly critical of OnceKing (and I will continue in my apparently lone dissent about it). My reasoning in previous posts stands, and if he is red, he's godfather (as I'm currently pretty certain OnceKing is, and that's my take on him).
I will retain my vote on him to note my read, unless something crazy, like a lynch on someone who isn't cal or me (or OnceKing, but no one is apparently going to agree to it until I turn up dead and town), is put forward and about to go through. There are no other good Day 1 lynch targets currently, and we are the clear options at this point. I repeat my request that OnceKing be lynched when I turn up town on a lynch, however.
Amiko's reasoning isn't solid. Where is this coming from? Everything he says is based on ignoring the things he doesn't want to acknowledge and pushing stuff that is a direct contradiction from what he doesn't want to believe.
I agree with OnceKing's ideas for voting Amiko, so that's scummy. N1k0 does the exact same thing without sticking his neck out and with no real analysis, and that's not scummy. Okay.
I stand by the fact that N1k0 is our best lynch target right now. He has contributed nothing and contradicts his own reasoning for pushing a lynch. Amiko, at the very least, tries. What he's saying is stupid and wrong, but he's trying.
Also, for the record, I was suspicious of IAmRobik before I voiced my opinions of Amiko's early game. This is the exact opposite of trying to deflect, as you mentioned. Quite frankly, I think all of the people involved in the majority of this discussion right now are town, and we should be focusing on the people that don't include much at the moment.
Unfortunately, this is probably the last post I'm going to be able to make before heading to the gym. I expect to get lynched by the time I get back, and if I am, I'm going to be very fucking upset.
On February 18 2014 08:01 Cavalinho wrote: Except I'm actively pressuring you you stupid asshole.
In case you haven't noticed, I'm actually trying very hard to focus on other things. But you ignore the shit that I've said before in regards to what OnceKing said. You can go ahead and look for it, because I'm not wasting my time explaining anything to you anymore. You are literally turning this into "you or me," and if we're both town, then everyone else is just sitting and watching while you try to reason something out of nothing.
I see absolutely no reason to let you live. You deliberately misread everything and your logic makes no sense. You're either shit town or mafia trying to save yourself.
But it's not like it actually matters what I'm saying here. I could say "smelly dick poop butt" and you would still think I'm mafia.
Two things: one, most of your posts have mostly been expressing frustration that Amiko's focusing on you. You've had "productive posts", but they're all focused on defending yourself and trying thus far to condemn Amiko.
Even when I point at both Lord Tolkein and IAmRobik
First, there was no pointing at me previously,
The only reference to me previously was:
His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you [, Lord Tolkien] posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him.
After my first two posts on Amiko and a side-tracked conversation with Valernius about possible roles.
And the push onto IAmRobik at the time, with the posts we had at hand, is very questionable, which I've already raised.
This also raises the question why you aren't voting me after switching from Amiko.
On February 18 2014 08:41 Cavalinho wrote:I stand by the fact that N1k0 is our best lynch target right now. He has contributed nothing and contradicts his own reasoning for pushing a lynch. Amiko, at the very least, tries. What he's saying is stupid and wrong, but he's trying.
Justify it, why and how does he contradict himself?
As it stands, I'm probably the best lynch target next to you, and I'm fine with it if my lynch accomplishes something (it is only Day 1 after all).
On February 18 2014 08:01 Cavalinho wrote: Except I'm actively pressuring you you stupid asshole.
In case you haven't noticed, I'm actually trying very hard to focus on other things. But you ignore the shit that I've said before in regards to what OnceKing said. You can go ahead and look for it, because I'm not wasting my time explaining anything to you anymore. You are literally turning this into "you or me," and if we're both town, then everyone else is just sitting and watching while you try to reason something out of nothing.
I see absolutely no reason to let you live. You deliberately misread everything and your logic makes no sense. You're either shit town or mafia trying to save yourself.
But it's not like it actually matters what I'm saying here. I could say "smelly dick poop butt" and you would still think I'm mafia.
Two things: one, most of your posts have mostly been expressing frustration that Amiko's focusing on you. You've had "productive posts", but they're all focused on defending yourself and trying thus far to condemn Amiko.
His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you [, Lord Tolkien] posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him.
After my first two posts on Amiko and a side-tracked conversation with Valernius about possible roles.
And the push onto IAmRobik at the time, with the posts we had at hand, is very questionable, which I've already raised.
This also raises the question why you aren't voting me after switching from Amiko.
Because we've had that solid conversation earlier about trying to plan around all of the blatant OMGUSing going on. This is a good sign.
I'm going to say it again: all of the people involved in the major discussions right now are probably town, and there are several players sitting back and doing nothing.
On February 18 2014 08:43 Cavalinho wrote: Because we've had that solid conversation earlier about trying to plan around all of the blatant OMGUSing going on. This is a good sign.
You replied too fast.
I would like to see the contradictions in N1k0's posts. I didn't see it in my read throughs. I'll look again, but an explanation helps outside of "he's contradictory".
Alright, check his filter. I agree with OnceKing's post about Amiko's early game, and I'm scummy. N1k0 does it, and he isn't scummy. He is voting me for the exact same reason I voted Amiko, and as such, should be treated as complete nonsense.
For realsies though, this is my last post until after the vote.
Fine. For you cal, I'll do one last analysis of it, and be extra critical of his post.
On February 18 2014 02:54 N1k0 wrote: Amiko He's more likely to be town than maf, in the case hes red hes more likley to be Godfather than Roleblocker or Goon( tho i dont think theres any roleblockers since we are only 9 players) so i wouldnt waste an investigation on him since him being a Goon is the less likely scenario. Why do i think he likely to be the Godfather in the scenario he is mafia? because of him trying to drive the conversation at the start of the day and then fading away. That being said i feel hes more likely to be town because of the fact that he hasn't been trying to deflect the threats he has received, but instead he been posting with the interest of town in his mind instead of trying to save himself.
I addressed this before: his initial post is not enough to condemn him as godfather, and he didn't "fade away". It can be construed as scummy yes, but the other conclusions aren't the best. He was indeed deflecting the threats at the time of his case opening, and attempting to explain his reasoning.
Cavalinho At the moment i feel like hes the most likely to be a red since his fast jump on OnceKing's accusation of Amiko, i feel like he saw an opportunity to get some traction behind a lynch early and jumped on it. In the case Cavalinho ends up being red that would probably mean OnceKing is town since i dont think they would both vote so quickly on the same target if they both were mafia.
Your argument is mostly just about his bandwagoning. Is there any other reason you're voting him over, say, me? I would like an explanation.
Lord Tolkien I dont really know what to think, hes trying hard to get someone lynched and as soon as he saw the case against Amiko losing traction he switched his stance and went against OnceKing. He's seems to be pushing for any lynch as long as its one that would have an important effect on the lynch on d2 which i feel worried about since we dont really know how many mafia there are and getting a townie (or even a blue) lynched against 3 reds would put us on a hard position. Ultimately i'm leaning to think hes town since he appears to be ok with him getting lynched as long as it results in a lynch of OnceKing on d2 who he believes to be mafia (tho he could be bluffing).
My issue with this underlined section is that I swapped my stance against OnceKing after he swapped over to me, I think that's pretty clear. I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning, and it was solidified after the random move onto me (and indicated as such before he pushed onto me).
You are correct: I'm looking for a lynch on Day 1 that will have the most impact for town in Day 2, given the unlikelihood of us actually lynching scum. If I'm that lynch, so be it, I'm fine with it.
Based on your analysis, the extrapolation is that we should be lynching me Day 1, so we can get a clear picture of OnceKing and lynch him, or progress onto Cal Day 2 if I ended up turning red.
OnceKing I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town. In the possible scenario that im wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone.
I still don't buy this, as being the first one to throw the stone, and then not really committing to the case, is just as readily done by a godfather looking to misdirect town attention; first onto Amiko, and then about-face onto me, after I gave my read about him either being town or possibly godfather. If I ended up green or blue, no suspicion would've been cast onto him if I wasn't being so vocal about a double-lynch (or vig shot at night if I turned up green). He was directly pushing hard onto me until I brought that up; now he's just referencing it in passing instead of actively pushing a case (like Amiko, again), and that I think is damning. His opinions are fairly unclear, and without strong reasoning involved thus far.
But it again is just me, and people don't believe me.
I also don't see why there needs to be three mafia with him being the first one to throw an accusation. That's a needless extrapolation.
For the momment im gonna go with the ##vote Cavalinho but i'm not too confident on it
Very indecisive, potential for yourself to pull it out later and say you weren't sure. Personally, I take it scummy; indecisive votes are my pet peeve. Decide on a vote and be decisive about it.
I'll open this up as a possible valid avenue of lynch and be willing to move my vote to him if everyone else decides upon it, but there's very little time and I'm expecting Cav or me (currently it appears to beCav) to be lynched.
More and more I'm growing dissatisfied with the way that Cavalinho is responding to pressure. He's lashing back out at Amiko saying that he's being tunneled upon but I can't agree -- though yes, the bulk of Amiko's case is indeed on Cavalinho he's also discussed other people like LT. Not only that but his actual defenses are just really indignant statements ("You're saying I can't do X? I'm not allowed to say Y?").
I agree that N1k0 has not contributed enough if really at all despite IAmRobik's statement that he has, but neither has Beneather. I can't see any contradiction in N1k0's post, just uncertainty in his vote placement. In addition he himself is now OMGUSing despite talking so much about it being bad earlier... what's up with that?
If we lynch Cav, the most likely possibilities are:
1) He was green or blue (vet most likely possibility in which case).
2) Non-godfather red. Note he was the one who suggested (probably correctly) that Cop look elsewhere instead of the most vocal posters. IF he was GF, he would welcome searches to waste cop turns.
Idle speculation post, however: I want to see if I'm right. He's scum, but not as scummy as I think OnceKing is.
But for reference I'll address the statements about me by LT.
Yes, I swapped to him and then he swapped onto me. This is the correct order of events. However, a few things of note: - I actually persisted in voting for Amiko until he made his large contributory post. He volunteered so much content there and has since been contributing regularly in a good way so my read on him has since changed. - I made my large case on you (and you on me). I was pushing for you because once again I felt that you had quite the number of posts with very few original ideas -- anything you said had already been voiced by Amiko or me, but here's why I'm really uncomfortable about you.
For the momment im gonna go with the ##vote Cavalinho but i'm not too confident on it
Very indecisive, potential for yourself to pull it out later and say you weren't sure. Personally, I take it scummy; indecisive votes are my pet peeve. Decide on a vote and be decisive about it.
On February 17 2014 08:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm not entirely convinced that Amiko is red, but I don't think at this point it matters.
##vote Amiko
Depending on the flip: 1) Die scum die 2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town
You do so the exact same here! You've justified it as lynching for information but as I've already said Amiko flipping green would say absolutely nothing about my alignment (though perhaps something about Cavalinho's bandwagon vote!), merely that I thought he was scum. Do you disagree with that?
However I also believed that we had reached an impasse and have discussed the topic of your motivations for voting me and my motivations for voting you to death, so I wanted to get people's reads on other things.
On February 18 2014 09:25 OnceKing wrote: You do so the exact same here! You've justified it as lynching for information but as I've already said Amiko flipping green would say absolutely nothing about my alignment (though perhaps something about Cavalinho's bandwagon vote!), merely that I thought he was scum. Do you disagree with that?
However I also believed that we had reached an impasse and have discussed the topic of your motivations for voting me and my motivations for voting you to death, so I wanted to get people's reads on other things.
In my eyes, yes. I'm generally suspicious of people who start lynches so early in a mafia game. I already justified my swap onto death, and I maintain that stance (and am currently asking for clarification). I am not advocating a lynch onto N1K0, again his lynch would accomplish nothing, and I'm being extra harsh on his contradictions.
And I again emphasize: what the hell did I have to gain from making that post and vote? It's not just about what looks scummy, but what looks scummy and advances a mafia agenda. What did I have to gain from it as opposed to remaining silent or start to strongly defend Amiko, again? You pointed out that it looks scummy, and I it is without the context I provided (and I've reiterated time and again), but you haven't provided a definitive motive. This is why my alarm bells are ringing.
And you're still pointing out meandering details, nor gave out the same kind of expanded read analysis of everyone here, beyond just tunneling lynch attempts.
I'm not going to rehash everything unless a formal case is brought up against you or me. Cal/cav quoted the post I made about that, let's implement it.
On February 18 2014 02:54 N1k0 wrote: Amiko He's more likely to be town than maf, in the case hes red hes more likley to be Godfather than Roleblocker or Goon( tho i dont think theres any roleblockers since we are only 9 players) so i wouldnt waste an investigation on him since him being a Goon is the less likely scenario. Why do i think he likely to be the Godfather in the scenario he is mafia? because of him trying to drive the conversation at the start of the day and then fading away. That being said i feel hes more likely to be town because of the fact that he hasn't been trying to deflect the threats he has received, but instead he been posting with the interest of town in his mind instead of trying to save himself.
I addressed this before: his initial post is not enough to condemn him as godfather, and he didn't "fade away". It can be construed as scummy yes, but the other conclusions aren't the best. He was indeed deflecting the threats at the time of his case opening, and attempting to explain his reasoning.
Cavalinho At the moment i feel like hes the most likely to be a red since his fast jump on OnceKing's accusation of Amiko, i feel like he saw an opportunity to get some traction behind a lynch early and jumped on it. In the case Cavalinho ends up being red that would probably mean OnceKing is town since i dont think they would both vote so quickly on the same target if they both were mafia.
Your argument is mostly just about his bandwagoning. Is there any other reason you're voting him over, say, me? I would like an explanation.
Lord Tolkien I dont really know what to think, hes trying hard to get someone lynched and as soon as he saw the case against Amiko losing traction he switched his stance and went against OnceKing. He's seems to be pushing for any lynch as long as its one that would have an important effect on the lynch on d2 which i feel worried about since we dont really know how many mafia there are and getting a townie (or even a blue) lynched against 3 reds would put us on a hard position. Ultimately i'm leaning to think hes town since he appears to be ok with him getting lynched as long as it results in a lynch of OnceKing on d2 who he believes to be mafia (tho he could be bluffing).
My issue with this underlined section is that I swapped my stance against OnceKing after he swapped over to me, I think that's pretty clear. I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning, and it was solidified after the random move onto me (and indicated as such before he pushed onto me).
You are correct: I'm looking for a lynch on Day 1 that will have the most impact for town in Day 2, given the unlikelihood of us actually lynching scum. If I'm that lynch, so be it, I'm fine with it.
Based on your analysis, the extrapolation is that we should be lynching me Day 1, so we can get a clear picture of OnceKing and lynch him, or progress onto Cal Day 2 if I ended up turning red.
OnceKing I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town. In the possible scenario that im wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone.
I still don't buy this, as being the first one to throw the stone, and then not really committing to the case, is just as readily done by a godfather looking to misdirect town attention; first onto Amiko, and then about-face onto me, after I gave my read about him either being town or possibly godfather. If I ended up green or blue, no suspicion would've been cast onto him if I wasn't being so vocal about a double-lynch (or vig shot at night if I turned up green). He was directly pushing hard onto me until I brought that up; now he's just referencing it in passing instead of actively pushing a case (like Amiko, again), and that I think is damning. His opinions are fairly unclear, and without strong reasoning involved thus far.
But it again is just me, and people don't believe me.
I also don't see why there needs to be three mafia with him being the first one to throw an accusation. That's a needless extrapolation.
For the momment im gonna go with the ##vote Cavalinho but i'm not too confident on it
Very indecisive, potential for yourself to pull it out later and say you weren't sure. Personally, I take it scummy; indecisive votes are my pet peeve. Decide on a vote and be decisive about it.
I'll open this up as a possible valid avenue of lynch and be willing to move my vote to him if everyone else decides upon it, but there's very little time and I'm expecting Cav or me (currently it appears to beCav) to be lynched.
I'll try to respond to the doubts you have but ill be brief since im heading out
First about Amiko, i started feeling him to be a red but as the day went on this suspicion went lower and lower, currently i believe him to be town, the reason i think that if he is red he's likely to be godfather is that since he tried to start the conversation which would most likely bring attention to himself which if he were red would make him vulnerable to not only getting lynched but also an investigation (which would not be a problem if he were godfather), but as i said i feel he is more likely to be town that mafia at the moment.
Why Cavalinho and not you, Cavalinho seems way more defensive than you do, and you argue with the town in mind instead of trying to save your own ass, even saying that what good could actually come out of your lynch (tho you could be a really good bluffer), plus i feel like Cavalinho jumped way too fast behind OnceKing's acusation of Amiko, 10 minutes after OnceKing's post looks like he saw an opportunity to get traction behind someone and jumped on it before it could fade away.
I agree with you that my indecisive vote is a really scummy thing to do, but i was just being honest about it, i am not sure of his mafianess but i feel like he is the most likely one to be at the time.
Im heading out now, but ill try to come back before the end of the cycle.
On February 18 2014 02:54 N1k0 wrote: Amiko He's more likely to be town than maf, in the case hes red hes more likley to be Godfather than Roleblocker or Goon( tho i dont think theres any roleblockers since we are only 9 players) so i wouldnt waste an investigation on him since him being a Goon is the less likely scenario. Why do i think he likely to be the Godfather in the scenario he is mafia? because of him trying to drive the conversation at the start of the day and then fading away. That being said i feel hes more likely to be town because of the fact that he hasn't been trying to deflect the threats he has received, but instead he been posting with the interest of town in his mind instead of trying to save himself.
I addressed this before: his initial post is not enough to condemn him as godfather, and he didn't "fade away". It can be construed as scummy yes, but the other conclusions aren't the best. He was indeed deflecting the threats at the time of his case opening, and attempting to explain his reasoning.
Cavalinho At the moment i feel like hes the most likely to be a red since his fast jump on OnceKing's accusation of Amiko, i feel like he saw an opportunity to get some traction behind a lynch early and jumped on it. In the case Cavalinho ends up being red that would probably mean OnceKing is town since i dont think they would both vote so quickly on the same target if they both were mafia.
Your argument is mostly just about his bandwagoning. Is there any other reason you're voting him over, say, me? I would like an explanation.
Lord Tolkien I dont really know what to think, hes trying hard to get someone lynched and as soon as he saw the case against Amiko losing traction he switched his stance and went against OnceKing. He's seems to be pushing for any lynch as long as its one that would have an important effect on the lynch on d2 which i feel worried about since we dont really know how many mafia there are and getting a townie (or even a blue) lynched against 3 reds would put us on a hard position. Ultimately i'm leaning to think hes town since he appears to be ok with him getting lynched as long as it results in a lynch of OnceKing on d2 who he believes to be mafia (tho he could be bluffing).
My issue with this underlined section is that I swapped my stance against OnceKing after he swapped over to me, I think that's pretty clear. I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning, and it was solidified after the random move onto me (and indicated as such before he pushed onto me).
You are correct: I'm looking for a lynch on Day 1 that will have the most impact for town in Day 2, given the unlikelihood of us actually lynching scum. If I'm that lynch, so be it, I'm fine with it.
Based on your analysis, the extrapolation is that we should be lynching me Day 1, so we can get a clear picture of OnceKing and lynch him, or progress onto Cal Day 2 if I ended up turning red.
OnceKing I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town. In the possible scenario that im wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone.
I still don't buy this, as being the first one to throw the stone, and then not really committing to the case, is just as readily done by a godfather looking to misdirect town attention; first onto Amiko, and then about-face onto me, after I gave my read about him either being town or possibly godfather. If I ended up green or blue, no suspicion would've been cast onto him if I wasn't being so vocal about a double-lynch (or vig shot at night if I turned up green). He was directly pushing hard onto me until I brought that up; now he's just referencing it in passing instead of actively pushing a case (like Amiko, again), and that I think is damning. His opinions are fairly unclear, and without strong reasoning involved thus far.
But it again is just me, and people don't believe me.
I also don't see why there needs to be three mafia with him being the first one to throw an accusation. That's a needless extrapolation.
For the momment im gonna go with the ##vote Cavalinho but i'm not too confident on it
Very indecisive, potential for yourself to pull it out later and say you weren't sure. Personally, I take it scummy; indecisive votes are my pet peeve. Decide on a vote and be decisive about it.
I'll open this up as a possible valid avenue of lynch and be willing to move my vote to him if everyone else decides upon it, but there's very little time and I'm expecting Cav or me (currently it appears to beCav) to be lynched.
I'll try to respond to the doubts you have but ill be brief since im heading out
First about Amiko, i started feeling him to be a red but as the day went on this suspicion went lower and lower, currently i believe him to be town, the reason i think that if he is red he's likely to be godfather is that since he tried to start the conversation which would most likely bring attention to himself which if he were red would make him vulnerable to not only getting lynched but also an investigation (which would not be a problem if he were godfather), but as i said i feel he is more likely to be town that mafia at the moment.
Why Cavalinho and not you, Cavalinho seems way more defensive than you do, and you argue with the town in mind instead of trying to save your own ass, even saying that what good could actually come out of your lynch (tho you could be a really good bluffer), plus i feel like Cavalinho jumped way too fast behind OnceKing's acusation of Amiko, 10 minutes after OnceKing's post looks like he saw an opportunity to get traction behind someone and jumped on it before it could fade away.
I agree with you that my indecisive vote is a really scummy thing to do, but i was just being honest about it, i am not sure of his mafianess but i feel like he is the most likely one to be at the time.
Im heading out now, but ill try to come back before the end of the cycle.
Thank you for the response. That clears up most of my lingering doubts, and all the clarification I needed.
In the future, justify your vote more prominently (I should've done the same when I voted for Amiko).
Again, your lynch doesn't accomplish anything at this juncture.
N1k0's big post gave me a slight scum vibe, mostly because of him talking about Amiko's possible mafia role, I don't think town would think too hard about which red role a scum player would be. I really don't like how he's focused on exact roles. I also disagree with his vote on Cavalinho, who I've stated previously I have a strong town read on. However, he hasn't posted enough for me to be entirely convinced that he's scum though, I hope he posts more so I can get a better read on him.
About people thinking too much about exact roles, Lord Tolkien does this as well in one of his latest posts:
On February 18 2014 09:10 Lord Tolkien wrote: I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning
He also previously talked about certain players possibly having blue roles, such as him suggesting he's a veteran. I just don't see how it helps us too much focusing on figuring out specific roles, we should be trying to find scum, not trying to figure out game set up and possible roles, there's time for that later. It benefits scum more to try to find out the blue roles more than town. He also says this about discussing roles:
I still don't see why commenting on roles is a bad thing for town (mafia will be doing it anyways in their QT)
The bolded part I think is a slip and is probably the biggest tell for a scum Lord Tolkien.
As the deadline comes closer, the scummiest person that I have read so far is Valenius, he doesn't contribute anything to town's efforts of deciding on a scum and just posts nothing of actual value. He brings up IamRobik and votes him but does not bring any reasons except that IamRobik has a problem with Valenius' posts, which is not a solid argument. I believe that Valenius might be scum because he is just posting things that look like it has contributions but in all honesty have no value. They are just restating the post and not providing any information and also has a lot of side tracking in it. As far as right now I believe that Valenius is mafia.
A lot of his posts are just him defending himself but not bring any value to the discussion. That seems very scummy, just showing up for the occasional defending but then disappear before attracting too much attention and just sit back and watch town try to lynch each other.
On February 18 2014 08:01 Cavalinho wrote: Except I'm actively pressuring you you stupid asshole.
In case you haven't noticed, I'm actually trying very hard to focus on other things. But you ignore the shit that I've said before in regards to what OnceKing said. You can go ahead and look for it, because I'm not wasting my time explaining anything to you anymore. You are literally turning this into "you or me," and if we're both town, then everyone else is just sitting and watching while you try to reason something out of nothing.
I see absolutely no reason to let you live. You deliberately misread everything and your logic makes no sense. You're either shit town or mafia trying to save yourself.
But it's not like it actually matters what I'm saying here. I could say "smelly dick poop butt" and you would still think I'm mafia.
I think your insults are not appropriate, and if we are alive tomorrow please do not continue them. We're playing a game together. It's a logic game where we don't have perfect information. It's a newbie game. I am not going to play perfectly. If I'm town and mistaken, it is your imperative to convince me that I'm wrong. What I asked you for was this:
On February 18 2014 07:56 Amiko wrote: In exchange, I would appreciate if you provide comments on my two above posts. Tell us what you agree with and what you don't agree with. That's what you need to do to to help town.
As I see it, you asked me to restate why I was suspicious of you. I did. My expectation is that you would go through the points, or at least try to convince me of something. Instead you ignored the content, so I guess I wasted my time. I asked you to please give analysis on my comments in the prior posts. You ignored that request, too.
I'll also mention that I feel I've been pretty fair when I comment on your posts. I opened one post saying:
On February 17 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote: I appreciate you explaining your reasoning somewhat
I also point out that I agree with one point you make regarding red flips
On February 17 2014 13:03 Amiko wrote: I won't flip red so I don't see much point in commenting on this. But, I do agree it's unlikely mafia would bus when there are probably 2-3 mafia in the game.
I haven't presented everything you say as scummy. But, you haven't given me what I need to see you as town. ----
I have more to say on Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 which I will put in the next post.
I thought that the day had ended and I was afraid to post. I'd like to bring up the fact that I tried to put out some bait and no one really jumped on it:
On February 18 2014 03:49 IAmRobik wrote: n1k0 spoke up and everyone shut down. This leads me to believe that n1k0 is town. Mafia are Tolkien and Valenius. GGWP town wins.
In fact, OnceKing was the only one to bring it up and he had the reaction that a town should have:
On February 18 2014 09:14 OnceKing wrote: I agree that N1k0 has not contributed enough if really at all despite IAmRobik's statement that he has, but neither has Beneather. I can't see any contradiction in N1k0's post, just uncertainty in his vote placement. In addition he himself is now OMGUSing despite talking so much about it being bad earlier... what's up with that?
I wanted to see if anyone put n1k0 in their town list after I said the above, but no one did. My opinion on n1k0 hadn't changed before of that post, nor did I think that he was town based off of the fact that no one posted after his one post. I still think he's scummy and think he's one of the better lynches for today
I am keeping my vote on Cavalinho, but I want to note a few things that I think are important about the end of this day.
There's four things to note: 1) Currently, Cavalinho is set to be lynched.
2) Cavalinho voted for n1k0.
3) Cavalinho is the only vote on n1k0.
4) Cavalinho posted that he would not change his vote from n1k0.
On February 18 2014 08:42 Cavalinho wrote: And I'm not changing my vote. I'm staying on N1k0 until the end of today.
--
I read Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 as townsided (with one caveat).
Basically, this post locks him into a vote on a player without any votes. If his goal is merely surviving, why not put his vote on someone who has a vote on him (Robik, Tolkien, OnceKing)? I am not surprised he didn't vote for OnceKing. His has just recently said that he agreed with all of OnceKing's first reads when OnceKing voted me, so it would be pretty questionable to challenge him now.
However, I think he could have moved his vote to Tolkien and Robik without as much attention. He posted here that he had concerns about both players:
On February 17 2014 14:06 Cavalinho wrote: I'm actually getting very frustrated with the way this is going, because I can't sit down and get reads from anyone since I'm defending my views every other post I make. Even when I point at both Lord Tolkein and IAmRobik, I have people doubting the fact that I'm town since I'm focused on getting one lynch done today and looking at these other people in the mean time.
(And also, Tolkein's disinterest in who gets lynched today is very concerning. I know I suggested him slightly before, but if we aren't going to go after Amiko, then I suggest either IAmRobik or Lord Tolkein.)
He reasserts that the three of us are his primary scumreads again here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=9#168).
So, why didn't he move his vote to someone who had some traction from another player?
I wouldn't even think it's that important, but he even commits to not changing his vote on n1k0. This essentially is tying his own hands - if he's mafia, he loses the ability to move his vote to either Robik or Tolkien if they get a second vote, thereby saving himself. Well, he could still change his vote, but he'd look really scummy.
So, I do think the vote on n1k0 reflects some towniness.
There is one caveat I'll mention which I do think is neutral or scummy. Cavalinho has argued that the case on him is bogus. But, then he argues that n1k0 did the same thing as him, so n1k0 is scummy. If Cavlainho seeks his actions and n1k0's actions as similar, I think it's illogical to say n1k0 is scummy but he is not.
In other words n1k0's actions -> similar to Cavalinho's actions n1k0's actions -> scummy to Cavalinho Cavalinho's actions -> not at all scummy to Cavalinho
On February 18 2014 09:14 OnceKing wrote: More and more I'm growing dissatisfied with the way that Cavalinho is responding to pressure. He's lashing back out at Amiko saying that he's being tunneled upon but I can't agree -- though yes, the bulk of Amiko's case is indeed on Cavalinho he's also discussed other people like LT. Not only that but his actual defenses are just really indignant statements ("You're saying I can't do X? I'm not allowed to say Y?").
I agree that N1k0 has not contributed enough if really at all despite IAmRobik's statement that he has, but neither has Beneather. I can't see any contradiction in N1k0's post, just uncertainty in his vote placement. In addition he himself is now OMGUSing despite talking so much about it being bad earlier... what's up with that?
Regarding Cavalinho OMGUSing on N1k0 and not really posting his reason on why he has a scum read on N1k0 is a bit suspicious. At the point where Cavalinho votes for N1k0, he doesn't mention anything to support his scum read on him. Also, I dislike his insults toward Amiko, there's no reason to insult anyone, especially one you think is town. If I'm interpreting it correctly, he's leaning on Amiko being town based on this post:
On February 18 2014 08:41 Cavalinho wrote: I stand by the fact that N1k0 is our best lynch target right now. He has contributed nothing and contradicts his own reasoning for pushing a lynch. Amiko, at the very least, tries. What he's saying is stupid and wrong, but he's trying.
I've had a strong town read on Cavalinho up to this point but as others mention some of the scummy actions and posts he's made I'm starting to have second thoughts.
Question for Cavalinho: Why did you quickly switch your vote to N1k0 without picking apart N1k0's posts for the contradictions he's made on his post?
On February 18 2014 03:49 IAmRobik wrote: n1k0 spoke up and everyone shut down. This leads me to believe that n1k0 is town. Mafia are Tolkien and Valenius. GGWP town wins.
Robik - I just figured you were joking with that post so I didn't really comment on it.
On February 18 2014 11:25 Lord Tolkien wrote: Read above Amiko. :o
IAmRobik's also voted for him.
That came in while I was typing. It makes me feel a little better :3
I guess if Cavalinho is mafia, it's possible his vote on n1k0 wasn't as townsided if he knew a mafia partner would join his vote. But, I would tend to think two mafia wouldn't be wiling to be the only two people on someone.
Neither do I, and it depends on how he flips, or if people do last-minute vote changes.
I do have new suspicions based on vote justifications thus far (depends on how cav falls), but if the latter does happen, take the convo I and Caval had and try to organize a scumhunting system.
Err... how is it a slip for LT to say that scum are probably discussing something on their QT? I see it as speculation at worst, I mean it's stated in the OP that scum have their own QT lol. Care to elaborate, theDragoon?
Re: expanded read analysis of everyone There's no purpose towards me making a list of everyone and saying what I think of them. Is this what you're asking for LT? I mean, what does it add to discussion if I say I don't know what to think of Beneather, for example? You would learn basically nothing if I only say things that are very moderate, so I post only my strongest reads -- who I think is probably mafia, and who I think is most clearly town.
On February 18 2014 11:46 OnceKing wrote: Err... how is it a slip for LT to say that scum are probably discussing something on their QT? I see it as speculation at worst, I mean it's stated in the OP that scum have their own QT lol. Care to elaborate, theDragoon?
Yeah, that's mostly what I was alluding to in my prior post. There are better reasons to lynch me than that (and argued to death), and you can put a far more compelling case. It's not the lynching vote I object to, it's the justification for the vote.
Re: expanded read analysis of everyone There's no purpose towards me making a list of everyone and saying what I think of them. Is this what you're asking for LT? I mean, what does it add to discussion if I say I don't know what to think of Beneather, for example? You would learn basically nothing if I only say things that are very moderate, so I post only my strongest reads -- who I think is probably mafia, and who I think is most clearly town.
That is fair. That being said, I would like to hear far more of your own opinion, and to elaborate on your strongest reads.
Right now my "definitely town" list is myself, Amiko and theDragoon.
Obviously, your definitely town list includes yourself, and you have previously noted why you think Amiko is town, but why theDragoon?
That being said, I just realized you previously made the comment about N1k0's indecisive vote before I did.
On February 18 2014 11:46 OnceKing wrote: Err... how is it a slip for LT to say that scum are probably discussing something on their QT? I see it as speculation at worst, I mean it's stated in the OP that scum have their own QT lol. Care to elaborate, theDragoon?
I called it a slip because I wasn't really thinking of the mafia QT and the fact that he mentioned it could imply that he's been using it. I might be reaching with this but that was my thought process behind it.
Cavalinho was preparing his greatest illusion yet. By concealing himself in the casket, he would be able to vanish, avoiding the lynch, and reveal the entire scum team. However, as he was buried six feet under, he couldn't help but think to himself that he has made a huge mistake.
Cavalinho the Vanilla Townie has been lynched.
The night ends in . Please send all night actions to all three hosts.
So I guess we're allowed to talk. I suggest not going into too much detail about your reads and stuff because it may point mafia in the direction of a night kill that they want to make. All I'll say is that I was very staunch about not wanting to lynch cavalinho and that he was one of my top town and I'm highly disappointed that he was lynched.
I think at least we should agree to put an end to the OMGUS'ing, and adopt a formal system of lynching. We've got 24 hours, so we can definitely get it organized before tomorrow.
If you think someone's mafia (or is worth investigating), put it up for a vote. After another player seconds, and we all collectively examine that person's filter, The person making the claim presents his case, the defendant presents his rebuttal, everyone gets to ask questions. Closing the case for the day can be done after there are no more questions, and after (say, 3-4 votes).
We can keep multiple cases open at once, as well, perhaps.
I would also suggest re-reading Cav's filter and debate what he says in it, and see what we can extrapolate (let's not talk about it until Day and night actions are being conducted).
Also, the fact that there were 3 people with 2 votes is really crappy for us because we can't really analyze the wagons that formed because there were no real wagons.
Also, there were no n0 actions and calavinho wasn't a town power role, so there's no real reason to delve deep into what he said other than if you want to create mislynches...I say this knowing that I'm town and he thought I was leaning scummy, so I know his reads aren't spot on.
On February 18 2014 12:48 IAmRobik wrote: Having people go in a strict order is super scummy and an easy way for mafia to control the way the game goes.
Alright, I can see what you mean by that. I'll drop the suggestion.
On February 18 2014 12:49 IAmRobik wrote: Also, there were no n0 actions and calavinho wasn't a town power role, so there's no real reason to delve deep into what he said other than if you want to create mislynches...I say this knowing that I'm town and he thought I was leaning scummy, so I know his reads aren't spot on.
So you're saying we can't learn anything from them? There are issues with his filter, in that his posts are greatly focused on Amiko in particular, until his relatively unreasoned n1k0 switch.
We can talk about it tomorrow after we have more information due to night actions, but it shouldn't be salvageable.
For now I think we should try to look at the votes and discussion of Cavalinho during the day.
I think it's clear I was the most outspoken against Cavalinho. I was wrong, though I think I provided a lot of my analysis on him so I hope you understand why I reached that conclusion.
I'm not certain what to read into the votes, but here's one line of analysis to offer up.
I would like comments on what I write, but what I would like more is to see someone else try to give some comments on the votes.
So, theDragoon, IAmRobik, and Valenius read Cavalinho as town/very town. So, I want to look at why they didn’t move their vote to someone else to avoid Cavalinho being lynched and if the play was consistent. I’ll mention each of the three for completeness’ sake, but I think IAmRobik is the only one that gives me ground for suspicion. theDragoon seems consistent. Valenius doesn't give me enough to make a read.
theDragoon only could have saved Cavalinho by voting for n1k0. He voted for Lord Tolkein theDragoon does have a slight scumread of n1k0 here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257), but that’s all I see on him. I can’t say his vote was inconsistent based on this.
Valenius Valenius could have saved Cavalino by voting for Tolkein or n1k0.
Valenius reads Tolkein as town here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20815145 I didn’t see anything else on the two. Valenius doesn’t say any read of n1k0 either way – he does draw n1k0 into posting, at least. I can’t say much for him either.
-- So, this is one I would like some responses to, particularly from IAmRobik.
On the one hand, IAmRobik did vote for the person he thought was the scummiest, so I think there is consistency. But, I think if I were in IAmRobik’s position, I would have considered changing my vote to Tolkein to preserve my most town and lynch my second most mafia. What do you guys think?
The other thing I'll say is, tomorrow I really think we need to narrow our focus on a smaller group of people. If the highest vote count for anyone is only two people, we are too split. Mafia's votes can affect the result too much, and there's no clear direction town is taking.
@Amiko I felt like I had a better scum read on LT than I had for n1k0. I asked Cav about why he had such a strong feel for n1k0 scum but he didn't return in time to answer. At this point LT is still my top scum read but I really would've liked if Cav answered my question in time to give me some light on his thoughts on n1k0.
IAmRobik, it's ok with me if you want to wait until day post to comment on my questions on your vote since night ends in about six hours. But, I think we should talk about the game during the night. I feel we should avoid saying (1) if we think someone softclaimed a town role, or (2) if we think someone is very town because those could help direct kills. But, I think analysis should come now, if you have any - if we die in the night, we won't get to post it, and we shouldn't let the conversation stop when we finally have some definite information (the vote list and Cavalinho's flip). I do agree with you about the vote splits, though, we can't really look at a bandwagon because of the vote splits. Your vote is the only thing that's really struck me so far, but I might try to take another approach later and see if it goes anywhere.
theDragoon Happy birthday theDragoon! Let's play pin the tail on the mafia at your party :3
On February 18 2014 15:00 theDragoon wrote: @Amiko I felt like I had a better scum read on LT than I had for n1k0. I asked Cav about why he had such a strong feel for n1k0 scum but he didn't return in time to answer. At this point LT is still my top scum read but I really would've liked if Cav answered my question in time to give me some light on his thoughts on n1k0.
Fair enough. I included the discussion of theDragoon and Valenius because I went through the analysis on all three, but only IAmRobik's actions struck me as questionable. If all three had votes that seemed inconsistent it might be less remarkable.
Formals I don't really like the 'formal' idea from Tolkien. I am worried that it would let people direct the conversation too much. I do think we need to focus more in day 2. But, I'm not really convinced the system you suggested is the best way. I think if someone posts a strong case, town will (hopefully) examine that case and decide where they lie.
Since there are still some people with very few comments, I think we should make them comment more.
On that vein, n1k0 n1k0, I don't think I've pushed on your actions very much. Your posts don't give me to much to work with, which I dislike. Let's start here:
1) Given the information you have right now, who are three people you think could be potential lynches tomorrow and why?
2) I put a post above discussing Robik's vote. What do you think of my analysis on that vote?
3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently. If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). Where do you think mafia would tend to vote?
Please remember, if your post says you read someone as very town, it may be better to wait until day 2 to post.
--
Does anyone else have any analysis we can try to take from the votes? If you want to wait until day that's alright, I'll try to read and respond once I get home.
Dude...it was nearing the end of the day, but there were people around and I thought they would see the light and vote for the obvious mafia instead of the obvious town. Unfortunately, you had your blinders on because of how he focused on you to change your mind. That's not my fault. That's yours.
On February 19 2014 06:55 IAmRobik wrote: Dude...it was nearing the end of the day, but there were people around and I thought they would see the light and vote for the obvious mafia instead of the obvious town. Unfortunately, you had your blinders on because of how he focused on you to change your mind. That's not my fault. That's yours.
Who did you think would switch?
Where did you think they would switch to?
On February 18 2014 11:07 IAmRobik wrote: I wanted to see if anyone put n1k0 in their town list after I said the above, but no one did. My opinion on n1k0 hadn't changed before of that post, nor did I think that he was town based off of the fact that no one posted after his one post. I still think he's scummy and think he's one of the better lynches for today
##vote: n1k0
What made you change your view of n1k0 as scummy and one of the better lynches of the day to an obvious mafia?
I have no idea what you mean? I was just saying that to say it to see how people would react. No one reacted, so I retracted my statement and just went on him. It's so easy to make 1 "super towny" post...which wasn't really super towny to begin with.
@Amiko ill try to respond to your post in about 1~2 hours when im able to dedicate enough time.
On February 19 2014 06:55 IAmRobik wrote: Dude...it was nearing the end of the day, but there were people around and I thought they would see the light and vote for the obvious mafia instead of the obvious town. Unfortunately, you had your blinders on because of how he focused on you to change your mind. That's not my fault. That's yours.
If you were so sure of Cavalihno being an obvious town why did you vote for me instead of voting Tolkien which was the way you could save the obvious town? especially since you were the last one to vote.
On February 19 2014 06:55 IAmRobik wrote: Dude...it was nearing the end of the day, but there were people around and I thought they would see the light and vote for the obvious mafia instead of the obvious town. Unfortunately, you had your blinders on because of how he focused on you to change your mind. That's not my fault. That's yours.
If you were so sure of Cavalihno being an obvious town why did you vote for me instead of voting Tolkien which was the way you could save the obvious town? especially since you were the last one to vote.
I'll respond to this after the night phase if I'm still alive. There's no way I'm discussing anything about anything during the night. Giving mafia an idea of who I think is scummy and townie to enable them to lead a lynch on someone who the majority of the town finds scummy is stupid stupid town play. If you want to talk about the weather, I can do that. If you want me to claim that I'm a cop with a vest and a shot, who can also save people, I can do that as well.
I'm going to post my analysis which I was mulling over the night phase in the next few hours: it hasn't been overtly affected by Robik's death, though town is much poorer for it.
The first section is written based on pre-night action analysis. I was planning on posting it like 1 minute before night ended in case I was killed, but I figured that due to Day 1 shenanigans, that it was highly unlikely that it would happen. Also could only use my phone at the time.
Regarding your analysis Amiko, you left out that I also could have saved Cavalinho as well.
My four options at the time were: 1) Switch onto Cavalinho (fairly pointless as he was going to die) 2) Vote for myself (if I felt that the lynch on Cavalinho and N1k0 were unwarranted enough, and that I really did feel OnceKing was scum) 3) Vote for N1K0 4) Maintain my effective non-vote
My read on Cavalinho was trending towards scummy because of his close-to-lynch posts and other things I’ve noted. N1k0 did have discrepancies in his first post, but I maintain my policy that it’s still better not to lynch lurkers until Day 2, and I was less sure of Cavalinho’s green flip then N1k0 at the time. The case was brought up near the end of Day 1, and we wouldn’t have much to go on if it was just a green flip: then we would very likely lynch Cavalinho because of it, and we’d be down 2 players.
NIGHT 1 READS
On Lurkers
At this stage, I feel both Valenius is the “scummiest” lurkers and most likely to be mafia out of the pool. He voted IAmRobik, when no real case was brought up against him unlike against myself or Cavalinho (or switch on N1k0’s late case), and is really just a random OMGUS vote. It really reads inconsistent here, since he didn’t vote Cavalinho when it was brought up (stating he can’t read me or Amiko). Beneather raised the point with his vote, and I would have a look at the filter. I’m opening his case up as a lynch target come Day 2, and I feel much better about bringing up a case against him than against N1K0 at this time.
N1k0’s case is out there, and I’m not commenting on it further, as I don’t think the situation has changed all that much, despite Cavalinho’s green flip. While it's compelling to pursue further, it's not enough for a case I feel.
theDragoon’s vote reads as a confused town; still reads town, but the vote justification was WTF?
Beneather similarly reads town to me despite his sparse posts, and IAmRobik reads super town to me now, especially considering his night posts (and steering me away from some potentially disastrous suggestions).
On Day 1Active Participants
At this stage, I don’t think at this stage any of us are mafia, unless the GF has done a masterful job blending in, and likely won. I’ll explain below.
I’m dropping the case on OnceKing with his posts and convo with me close to the end of the Day 1 phase, now that I've had time to mull them over from a less heated standpoint. The issue I had which made me jump on him and view him as scum were the multiple minor details he was bringing up in his initial case on me; it felt like grasping for straws, so to speak. I am still going to be critical of his posts for inconsistencies and when his posts are far too aggressive like that. I’m also withdrawing the double lynch proposal, because it’s too dangerous now in Day 2 in the POSSIBILITY there are 3 mafia members (doubt it, but even with 2 it gives far too little margin of error), in conjunction with my change of read on him.
To explain my change and initial read of "moderate town or godfather (I think?)": I was jaded by a past experience of an active mafia member gunning for me and others Day 1 based on meaningless “tells” (I ended up getting him with a double lynch proposal, with him lynched first, but since there was no flips in the setup, I got lynched next turn and mafia won because I forgot that there was the possibility of a second one, so the gambit failed). This is incidentally why theDragoon’s vote justification confused me. I’m still going to be more critical of cases you bring up for now on, but I’m now fairly certain you’re town.
IAmRobik currently speaks town talk. He corrected my Night 1 mistakes quickly and decisively, and nipped them from going further and clogging up discussion (this is my first online mafia, so I wasn’t sure how to proceed at Night). And since he started contributing, he's contributed fairly well, and gave honest reads, even with some scant justification at times. This is why I think bringing up lurkers as lynch targets very early was questionable policy.
Amiko, despite his mislynch case on Cavalinho, still feels town, as the premature analysis he posted was solid for a preliminary post, and it stands as a definite contribution to town for us to further analyze vote patterns against reads. He reads fairly solidly town to me.
Appended section based on Night Actions
I am slightly surprised that they didn’t decide to kill OnceKing. It would be a clear way to implicate me, as I am currently most peoples’ scummiest read (or perhaps it’s too obvious), but the way IAmRobik was trending, he was shaping to be a strong town. Alternately, they could’ve done the same with me since I didn’t call off the double-lynch beforehand, but that would be eliminating a potential Day 2 lynch target entirely.
The frustrating part is that I don’t think it gives us much to go on. Both of the votes on N1k0 are dead, but it might just be mafia exploiting the situation to get a mislynch going.
Robik’s night posts were drawn out by my own and Amiko’s posts, however, so we are both culpable here (though he did start shaping up to be someone who was actively shaping discussion away from continued Day 1 shenanigans). I don’t think Amiko was baiting IAmRobik into posting further during night, given the length of his post suggests he was writing it before he saw my and Robik’s exchange. In hindsight, I think I was the one doing that. It is entirely possible that one of us is mafia (if you take this line of approach, I should be more scummy because I threw the first stone, so to speak). The alternate possibility is that it was done to cast us in a negative light, and I will leave it up to you guys to weigh it yourselves, or think of other possibilities.
It may also be that Robik was onto good leads, but there’s not much we can say about that. The case on N1K0 is still valid. I’m not sure what else we can draw from it.
Comments, criticisms? I'm putting together the Valenius case soon (tm).
I'm a little too tired to adequately address Tolkien's post tonight, but I am glad there is something to look through. I'll comment on just the first thing addressed at me because it's pretty easy clarification and I want to re-read the conversation between you and OnceKing.
On February 19 2014 13:49 Lord Tolkien wrote: Regarding your analysis Amiko, you left out that I also could have saved Cavalinho as well.
Basically, because of the vote split, anyone could have voted to save Cavalinho by moving their vote (including Cavalinho! Actually, I'll put a quick comment on that below). So, I only looked at the three people who I felt gave a stronger town read on Cavalinho (theDragoon, IAmRobik, and Valenius) so could reasonably be expected to try to vote to save him. For you, I felt your read was somewhat town, somewhat scum, so it wasn't inconsistent for you to vote against him.
I wanted to get some reads off of Robik's response because I did think it was weird he didn't move his vote and therefore suspicious. Frankly, I figured it was just that he hadn't considered the possibility, but it was a good thing to pressure him on. That might sound like under-reading Robik, but this is why I mention Cavalinho's vote again. Cavalinho could have saved himself by moving his vote (to Tolkien) and he didn't. If I were in his position, I think I would have moved my vote to Tolkien - Cavalinho knew he was town and didn't know Tolkien's alignment. In other words, Cavalinho didn't play as he should have from his point of view, but it seems likely that's just because he didn't read how tied votes worked.
--
I'll go through the rest of your post tomorrow afternoon Tolkien and try see if anything in Robik's activity brings me more to think about.
1) His first relevant post to go off my quick note that we don't have an innocent child for an early town confirmation (while I was first stepping into Amiko's post), into a discussion about town roles that I participated in.
2) His first contribution when pushed for a read amounted to agreeing with me about not lynching lurkers early, and making a comment about me nothing Amiko's spreadsheet, nor contributed anything interesting of note on Amiko. The biggest point of note is why he thought IAmRobik was scum based on his 2 posts prior, the first was inconsequential, and the second directing us away from not to talk about role breakdown. It's an odd gut feeling to have based on his posts (I made the same comment with Cavalinho about his early suspicions of IAmRobik).
Not particularly, although I'm unsure on the argument for not checking the active players. If some of the active players are in fact mafia, they could lead the game to a mafia win easier than I think the lurkers could. However, as with the lynching discussion, checking lurkers could be better due to getting better reads from those who are posting frequently.
needs to be taken into context now. As I'm increasingly certain that the current active players aren't mafia, this is where my scummy read is coming from now, in retrospect.
4) I really do think he's just been too non-committal this phase, and his contributions have been far more negligible than other "lurkers", despite having more posts.
I would like comments and criticisms about this analysis. He's the scummiest I've got, and I figured I needed to raise the case. At the very least, to get him to be active.
I think I deleted a paragraph of the above post. In essence I'm just saying, I only bothered to do the vote analysis on the people who indicated they would want to save Cavalinho. The only omission person I felt should have a town read on Cavalinho, yet didn't vote to save Cavalinho, was Cavalinho (how's that for a sentence!). I wanted to see how people responded to my point on Robik's vote to press reads, then point to Cavalinho's play to explain why I didn't read Robik's vote as a strongly scummy. But maybe the comments would have indicated something.
Writing this really reaffirms my feeling that we need to ensure we have a less split vote today. When there's only 1-2 votes on people, a single vote can spare almost anyone, and mafia probably has at least two votes to use.
@ Amiko Cavalinho noted that he wasn't changing his vote (he was heading to the gym), and that by then, he was fairly certain all the active players in the thread were not scum. That is why he did not vote for me, and looked at N1k0 (and drew my attention to him).
I've at this point reached the same conclusion as well, and that we should be looking at lurkers. My guess is that two of the lurkers are mafia and watched us fruitlessly scumhunt (why I'm not a fan of Day 1 lynch cases), and the scummiest reads there that I have are Valenius and N1K0, in that order. Even if there is one among the active participants (I don't think that's very likely anymore), I have utter conviction that two out of three are mafia given our stances on the Amiko case, and my and OnceKing's spat. It may be masterful play if two of us were able to pull it off to throw everyone off their game (in which case, I think that you two have won the game already). In this case, I feel the best play is to look at lurkers, because I'm fairly certain there's at least 1-2 in a pool of 4, and a 0-1 chance in a pool of 3. Better odds, so to speak.
I'm still an open lynch target though if you guys feel like it. I don't think OnceKing is scum anymore (most likely), however and I don't feel that a Day 2 lynch of myself is going to reveal info if I turn up Green (which was why I was fine with being lynched Day 1).
Valenius lists his town and mafia reads. The part that struck out to me was his mafia read on IAmRobik and his reason behind it, which he said was “just a gut feeling”. His posts after that are targeted towards Robik since he thought that Valenius was super scummy. He then votes for Robik but I have yet to see his reason for wanting to lynch Robik other than Robik calling him scum. Rather than looking for other scum, Valenius has complete tunnel vision on Robik, not sure if it’s because he panicked that Robik got an accurate read on him or he just OMGUS. I would really like to hear Valenius’ reason to keep his vote on Robik, despite not having a sufficient argument for his scum read.
Also, Lord Tolkien made a good point with this:
Both of the votes on N1k0 are dead, but it might just be mafia exploiting the situation to get a mislynch going.
With a mafia read on Valenius, it makes sense that Robik was their target for the night kill. Val’s vote on Robik didn’t gain traction and they saw the opportunity to implicate N1k0 with a mislynch since both players who voted him are now dead. This would also suggest that N1k0 is town if Val is mafia. If Val and N1k0 are scum partners then I don’t think they would have shot Robik since it makes N1k0 look very suspicious.As of now my strongest scum read is Valenius.
I have utter conviction that two out of three are mafia given our stances on the Amiko case, and my and OnceKing's spat. It may be masterful play if two of us were able to pull it off to throw everyone off their game (in which case, I think that you two have won the game already). In this case, I feel the best play is to look at lurkers, because I'm fairly certain there's at least 1-2 in a pool of 4, and a 0-1 chance in a pool of 3. Better odds, so to speak.
It may be late and I'm just tired but I'm having a hard time understanding what you're trying to say there. Specifically the bold part because at the first part it sounds like you're talking as mafia then the part with brackets sound like you're talking town. Also, is it pretty much guaranteed that it's 2 mafia rather than 3? With 7 players remaining it would be difficult to win the game 4v3.
I'm saying that out of the 3 people who currently actively participate, myself, Amiko, and, at the time, OnceKing. Out of this pool, I don't think any of us are mafia based on Day 1 shenanigans and absolutely CERTAIN that 2 out of the 3 of us are not mafia. Why would OnceKing initiate a claim onto Amiko, and then go back and forth for so long with me? It's possible (and remains possible in my mind) that he could've initiated it early on Amiko, or swapped onto me, just to throw everyone off their/our trails. Same with my abrupt vote onto Amiko. If Amiko, myself, or OnceKing turned up red, the others are much less likely to be suspect the either two remaining players since, hey, why would they go after them Day 1?
The parenthesis is just me noting that I currently doubt Amiko and OnceKing are working together in this (but if they were, they've probably won since town isn't likely to lynch both of them).
This is a POSSIBLE scenario, but I don't think it's REALISTIC. At most, there's 1 mafia among the three of us, and I think our pool is entirely town at this point.
This is why I think we should be going after Day 1 lurkers today (where all my scummy reads are currently). There's at least 1 mafia there, maybe 2.
If there are 3 mafia, they win with one mislynch and a nightkill. I dont think there are 3 mafia, but that's irrelevant atm.
Okay, here's my take on this situation. Both of my previous scumreads in Amiko and LT are (and have been) contributing quite actively to town discussion so I no longer believe them to be mafia.
Let's consider the events and spread of votes from the previous day.
The largest argument of the day was between LT and me. Let's think about what a player of each alignment would do at this point in the game. A town member would either back a side if he believed one of us to be scum, or if he believed neither of us to be scum would voice his dissatisfaction with our argument. In fact, there's no reason for a town member not to have something to say about it! On the other hand, if one of LT and I were mafia, then a mafia member would attempt to subtly back a side and cause a mislynch, then go "whoops! I thought he was mafia!". Consider, however, the scenario in which LT and I are both town. Then the mafia sits back and watches the circus.
So the question here is, who avoids the topic? Valenius does, as does Beneather.
Here's what Valenius had to say:
On February 18 2014 04:57 Valenius wrote: [...]
LT/Amiko would be my other choices, and as I stated I cant get a solid read on LT, so i'm avoiding the LT/Amiko vote for the moment.
[...]
That's it. He completely avoids taking sides on the topic and I think with how much LT and I were posting one can only have strong opinions about our alignments at this point in the game. Instead he votes for IAmRobik because IAmRobik called some of his posts useless, and from a "gut feel".
Beneather also confusingly stated that he didn't think LT was mafia, and then tries to discredit him. He does however come back with what I believe to be a reasonable case on Valenius, so as much as I hate consensus so early in the day I'm going to have to agree that Valenius is the most suspicious and I need to hear more from him.
But wait! Why can't he get a solid read on LT? As he says himself...
[...] There's enough posts by the 'main' bunch so far to provide reads as the game progresses.
LT believes that the most likely mafia are the day 1 lurkers: Valenius, N1k0 and Beneather. I just went through each of their filters and Valenius has been the most active of the three but also his posts have the least amount of substance. Even Beneather pointed it out in his latest post:
On February 18 2014 10:45 Beneather wrote: As the deadline comes closer, the scummiest person that I have read so far is Valenius, he doesn't contribute anything to town's efforts of deciding on a scum and just posts nothing of actual value. He brings up IamRobik and votes him but does not bring any reasons except that IamRobik has a problem with Valenius' posts, which is not a solid argument. I believe that Valenius might be scum because he is just posting things that look like it has contributions but in all honesty have no value. They are just restating the post and not providing any information and also has a lot of side tracking in it. As far as right now I believe that Valenius is mafia.
A lot of his posts are just him defending himself but not bring any value to the discussion. That seems very scummy, just showing up for the occasional defending but then disappear before attracting too much attention and just sit back and watch town try to lynch each other.
##VOTE Valenius
I don't really have a strong scum read on Beneather because he's posted so little, so there's definitely better lynch targets than him.
N1k0 has slightly more analysis than Beneather and some parts do look towny, but some are a little bit scummy. In particular I found that his mentioning of Amiko being godfather was rather scummy (which I previously mentioned) but says later that Amiko's posts swayed him towards a town read on Amiko. He was wrong about his scum read on Cav though, but he does make a decent argument for it. I'm waiting for his next post where he says he'll reply to Amiko, but as of now I'm not getting a strong scum read on him.
I've already mentioned my thoughts on Valenius and with OnceKing and LT making their case against him, it's only made my scum read on him stronger. He's also posted very little value despite his number of posts. At this point, I think we need to start looking for scum pairs, if we get the right lynch today it might give us a lot of information on who to lynch on day 3.
On my previous post I said I don't have a strong scum read on Beneather but if Valenius flips red I started thinking about his most likely partners and Beneather looks to be the most logical choice.
If you read through Val's filter, a lot of it his him asking Robik why he thinks Val is scummy. Val also voted for Robik because he pretty much didn't like Robik's read on him. However, Val never mentions Beneather at all despite Beneather actually having a solid case, and an actual vote on him. I was a bit hesitant to make this connection because I thought if they were mafia teammates then Beneather wouldn't have such a solid case against his partner. So the question is, why did Val OMGUS Robik, who didn't have a solid case against him and ignored the only guy with a real case on him with Beneather? My guess is they planned this to keep themselves apart, to eliminate any possible connections between each other. Beneather knows that Val won't get lynched since he was mainly off town's radar and votes for him so that it's less likely that we make the connection between the two.
Another thing to note is that neither of the two jumped on any of the possible bandwagons on day 1: Cavalinho, Lord Tolkien, and N1k0. Again, this supports the idea of them trying to distance themselves away from each other, and with the lack of a bandwagon it makes it easy for them to just watch town go at each other. The three way tie between Cavalinho, LT and N1k0 was also in their favor since any one of the three being lynched results in a mislynch for us.
Pre-Post: I hope the formatting's generally okay, had to edit in google docs due to size. I'm tired as f*ck no, so i'll either respond in an hour or two, or i'll try and make time in the morning before work.
First point: Wtf does OMGUS'ing mean?
My read on IAmRobik: Robik, from my view came from pretty much nowhere. He’d had a very quiet game until mid-day 2. He then brings out that my first post (Good evening, I'm heading to bed now, UK Time (03:00), see you all in a bit!) was super scummy. Nobody else had even mentioned this post, the point was completely out of the blue. Following this, his read on theDragoon’s post (Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow) is that it’s the scummiest post in all of the pages so far. The early voting was pretty funny, nothing was really said there. It was started by a joke.. from Robik himself. The first posts, up until the face of george michael were pointless. The post’s of people just messing around at the start of day 1. To actively claim two of the scummiest posts in the whole thread were made around that sequence.. that’s a ridiculous read to be basing off of.
His two previous posts’ (Serious posts, i’m ignoring his earlier ones) were
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
&
On February 17 2014 06:19 IAmRobik wrote: Let's not talk about roles There are maximum 3 maf
In my opinion pretty scummy. The first post in my view is akin to lighting a firework in a room, and running away. There was absolutely no follow up of any kind.
The second post, dissuading my inquest into game setup (Note: Not role setup, game setup) was just dismissing my question. As i’ve stated since, my question wasn’t an aim to dig out roles of people, but to find out the Mafia/Town setup. I still disagree with those of you that say this isn’t important. 3 Mafia: If we mislynch tonight, we lose. 2 Mafia: There’s another day. Behaviour patterns. If you’re looking for 3 mafia, and trying to make connections between 3 players, and it turns out there’s only 2.. your whole analysis of player relations will be off.The same is true for the other situation.
Next: His point on my posts only being about uninteresting stuff and game setup. I didn’t take part in the early mess of random accusations, partly due to timezone, partly due to not being a fan of it. As i’ve stated before (getting sick of typing this now), my questions were short and answerable with a one-line answer, with no more discussion related to the question needed. I’d probably have brought up my thoughts on 2 or 3 man mafia later into day 1, if i’d have gotten an answer. Maybe i should’ve ‘mod question’d’ the question.
I do actually agree with his next point, regarding lynching for information. It’s a point i’ve expanded on further down.
Again, his response to my question on game knowledge: He stated it’s standard forum mafia setup and his post read to me as if he was annoyed I didn’t understand that. I’d discussed other things at that stage (incl my reads), yet again brought me up for discussing game mechanics (2 posts..). Again, as i’ve stated above, not caring about how many mafia there are is reckless.
His next point following on from n1k0’s post.
On February 18 2014 03:49 IAmRobik wrote: n1k0 spoke up and everyone shut down. This leads me to believe that n1k0 is town. Mafia are Tolkien and Valenius. GGWP town wins.
This was posted less than an hour following n1k0’s post. As i’m writing this, it’s been 2hours 30 since the last post (Onceking’s Feb 18, 03:56). Time is almost irrelevant. It’s a stupid point, and to use that to suggest i’m definitely Mafia? None of you would have any issues with that were the situations reversed?
I’ve underlined the above section, as it was what I was originally going to post. However, having had another scan further down page 14.. I completely misread his ‘play’ for that post. Apologies Robik, that was on a different level than I was running at. If, going ahead we assume that Robik was indeed supermafiaplayer, his vote stayed on n1k0.
Finally, my vote on Robik. I’ll admit, by the stage my vote went on I was already having a mafia vibe from Robik, and his following posts did little to dissuade that feeling. My ‘gut feeling’ was mostly what i’ve put into words above. I’ll apologise, but I tried to but this into words during the argument, but my brain was turning to mush. I couldn’t formulate words that accurately represented my reads.
If i’d have had a stronger read at the time, I’d have moved it to them. I didn’t. LT/Amiko were my other choices at the time, but neither read was strong enough.
IAmRobik’s death:
Robik, if you’re reading this: Sorry for misreading you. Come the end of the game, you’ll feel the same way about me! However, everyone else: Answer this honestly. I’m the only one to have a vote on Robik. Cavalinho had one earlier, but moved it away, leaving me as the sole-voter for Robik. If I were mafia, choosing to kill Robik would be almost suicidal. I haven’t played particularly well through Day 1, so having the same level of discussion (see above point re: gut feeling) would be akin to stabbing myself through the heart, after writing you a note confessing to being mafia. I like to think of myself as a reasonably smart guy, not the smartest, but enough to avoid stabbing myself through the heart. It’s something i’ve managed to avoid so far in my life.
I don’t know who stands to benefit most from implicating me in the Death, but i’d probably choose to look at someone who’s stood in the back and let others accuse me Day2.
Town read on Cavalinho:
My read on Cavalinho was correct, as stated in my post.. Feb 18, 04:34
Other Thoughts:
Tolkien, I really think the the suggestion of formal lynching is pretty scummy. In a face to face game it works fine, or if we had.. idk, week long day's it would be possible. Today for example, as much as I had planned for this week to be empty, unavoidable stuff crops up that delays me from posting for ~ 8 hours. In that time, unless anybody brings up another vote, as you suggested at the end of your post (multiple cases), it’s a ridiculously easy stall for the mafia.[spoiler = Post I'm referring to]
On February 18 2014 12:32 Lord Tolkien wrote:I think at least we should agree to put an end to the OMGUS'ing, and adopt a formal system of lynching. We've got 24 hours, so we can definitely get it organized before tomorrow. If you think someone's mafia (or is worth investigating), put it up for a vote. After another player seconds, and we all collectively examine that person's filter, The person making the claim presents his case, the defendant presents his rebuttal, everyone gets to ask questions. Closing the case for the day can be done after there are no more questions, and after (say, 3-4 votes). We can keep multiple cases open at once, as well, perhaps. Any objections, or amendments to make?
[/spoiler]
Tolkien turned suspicious based on Cavalinho’s analysis, which he had previously agreed with. See: Cavalinho’s Checking Strategy Post (Feb 17, 08:33).
theDragoon had a solid town read on Cavalinho, which clearly turned out to be true. Solid enough to let it affect his judgement of n1k0.
theDragoon also notes his suspicions of Lord Tolkien (Feb 18, 09:45), over his talk on specific blue roles. Note: My earlier comments about game setup were not role-directed, only total Mafia/Town numbers. I listed all of the possible roles in one of my posts, more as a confirmation to myself than a discussion point: I’ve made this defense several times so far, when questioned on it.
Tolkien’s post following last night (Feb 19, 13:49). You stated that my vote on Robik was when no real case was brought up against me. Then, in your discussion on arguments with OnceKing you stated the issue you had were the multiple minor details he was bringing up ‘Grasping for straws’. This is the same reason which made me vote him. His original read on my scummy-ness was because I went to bed at 3:00am when the game started. Just wtf.
Amiko In your post listing off posts where IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town, you’ve included one where he agrees with your analysis of Cavalinho, early-ish in Day 1. Your reads from that post are that Cavalinho was scummy. Did you include this post in the hopes no one would read it, and to pad out your post ? What’s your reason for lying about the content of that post?
N1k0 How on earth you’ve got away with posting as little as you have so far is beyond me. Your reads on both Cavalinho and IAmRobik were horrendously wrong. For record: Believed Cavalinho was the most likely red in the game. Believed IAmRobik was not a vanilla townie. My reads on IAmRobik were based on what i’ve discussed earlier, his jumping on me when.. please correct me if i’m wrong.. there wasn’t a massive amount of suspicion on me at the time. I also massively disagree with your assumption that Amiko is town, because of his driving conversation then fading away. Amiko received an enormous amount of pressure due to his early posts, it seems reasonably logical that he’d step out of the driving seat with that pressure. Could you please clarify the wording on this following quote? Are you referring to LT or OK, when saying your wrong? I presume OK, but it changes my read on that sentence.
OnceKing I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town. In the possible scenario that i'm wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone.
Still on n1k0. In your response to Tolkiens questions about your first real post you brought up that LT saying what good could come out of his lynch.. on Day1, with an undetermined amount of mafia, no. That’s not a good town play, by either of you. Following a lynch policy for 2 days, also allows for 2 mafia kills, leading to a total of 4 kills. Assuming one of you were mafia; You’ve either got 4:1 (initially 2 mafia) or 3:2 (initially 3 mafia. The 4:1 isn’t bad odds, and wouldn’t be a terrible solution. 3:2 would be ridiculous, going to lynch wrong and lose based on day 1 assumptions.. in what world is that good odds? Assuming neither of you were mafia, and you both had bad reads.. the game’s practically over. 3:2 (initial 2 mafia), or Dead start of night two (initial 3 mafia). 1 in 4 of those situations is one that i’d choose to be in. N1k0, if you’re agreeing with his post you either didn't think the numbers through, or blindly thought he was posting something logical and went along with it. Either way, it’s pretty scummy. Tolkien. you’ve been reasonably smart throughout so far, did you not run the numbers? This and your much earlier carelessness for lynching Amiko “at this point it doesnt matter” are showing you as very lynch-happy. If you’re bluffing and hoping the “I’ll martyr myself” post for lynchings was a town move, it isn’t. I’m disappointed I didn’t pick up on it earlier.
Amiko’s read on OnceKing’s dissatisfaction on Cavalinho’s response to pressure. I happen to agree with OnceKing’s post, so therefore disagree with Amiko’s assessment of the situation. OK’s other paragraph is also one that I agree with. N1k0 has barely contributed, Robik’s statement that he had was wierd.
OnceKing. Whilst looking through your above post, it’s come to me that you’ve been ending a lot of your posts with questions deflecting away to other players, without massively answering them yourself. I believe your town at this stage, and you seem to have reasonable leads. You’re reading people better than I seem to be, so start posting hard-hitting questions directed at those people.. not just questions to the room.
Beneather. You’ve posted two posts that have any relevance to the game. In my view, everything else you try to claim with regards to my lack of useful posting is invalid. Your ‘reads’ post is the most re-hashed post so far. You’ve done exactly what others have brought people up for; discussing specific roles. Everything in your accusation post (except specifics on Robik) could be turned back on yourself, and even amplified to say you’ve actually made no contributions at all.
Top-Reads
Mafia: N1k0, and then depending on 2 or 3 man mafia: Amiko/Beneather (In no order). Town: OnceKing, theDragoon.
If I'm reading your post correctly you have LT as being scummy (saying that his formal vote proposition is scummy, then saying he was based suspicious based off Cavalinho's previous post, then said that LT's martyr-esque posturing wasn't town at all. So how is it that you don't have him as mafia?
In fact over half of your post seems to be a bunch of fluff justifying your reads on people who've already died, putting doubt onto Tolkien and then concluding that n1k0 is mafia because he had incorrect reads and lurking. Lurking can be scummy yes, but calling someone scum for being wrong is just nonsensical.
On February 19 2014 06:27 Amiko wrote: n1k0 n1k0, I don't think I've pushed on your actions very much. Your posts don't give me to much to work with, which I dislike. Let's start here:
1) Given the information you have right now, who are three people you think could be potential lynches tomorrow and why?
2) I put a post above discussing Robik's vote. What do you think of my analysis on that vote?
3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently. If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). Where do you think mafia would tend to vote?
Sorry i want able to respond earlier, but here we go. 1) I feel like right now we should be looking hard at the lurkers, Valenious, Beneather and myself mainly because of the lowest amount of information in order to form reads.
Valenious Right now i feel like hes the most likely to be scum, this is because i feel like his posts have been the less comitted ones out of all (mainly being defensive ones), he avoided jumping on any of the 3 likely lynches on day 1 (myself, LT, Cav) and kept his vote on Robik, he could've saved Cav by switching to me or LT (who he said would've been his other choice with Amiko if he didnt vote Robik).
Overall, I'd be choosing between IAmRobik / LT / Amiko. The issue with this is, I can't see LT having pushed so hard (see above) on Amiko that early in the game if they were bros.
##vote IAmRobik
[..]
LT/Amiko would be my other choices, and as I stated I cant get a solid read on LT, so i'm avoiding the LT/Amiko vote for the moment.
The only townie move out of him i saw was pushing me to post my thoughts.
Beneather I feel like he contriubited a little more than Valenious but not too much. He too like valenious voted for someone out of the 3 2 vote lynces which i see as a scummy move trying to keep uncommited, when he casted his vote and posted his case on Valenious he was not likely to be lynched since this was the first acussation being thrown at Valenious there wasnt much time left on the day for there to be a 2 vote switch onto Valenious.
You asked me to list you three potential lynches for today but i dont have anyone that i read as likely scum outside of Valenous and Beneather at the moment. I do have a strong town read on LT, i would have a moderate town read on theDragoon if it wasnt because of his vote on LT because he thought he saw a mafia slip on him.
2) Im not what post were you referring to.
3) As i said in my suspisions of Beneather and Valenous i feel like scum would love to manage to get a misslynch without commiting at all on any of the likley lynches. I have a soft town read on you at the moment, the fact that Cav flipped green doesnt change my opinion of you because i feel like we both read him as scum because of the same reasons.
theDragoon: Mostly due to his reads and reasoning on Cavalinho (Feb 17, 12:00). He's also picking up LT (I'm still undecided on as a whole, whether I'm misreading him idk) on his posts over being a veteran and risk, which I believe were decent enough town play. I don't feel a mafia would have taken that line of questioning, and would have let it play out instead.
Once/Whoever else has reads, I'm happy for you to keep questioning me.. just make sure it isn't the only thing you do today.
If I'm lynched at the end of this day, and you've progressed nowhere on anyone else, I'm letting you know well in advance that you'll have wasted a day.
Keep on me if you want, but don't let others get away scott-free.
Could you please clarify the wording on this following quote? Are you referring to LT or OK, when saying your wrong? I presume OK, but it changes my read on that sentence.
You are right, i was referring to OK.
Still on n1k0. In your response to Tolkiens questions about your first real post you brought up that LT saying what good could come out of his lynch.. on Day1, with an undetermined amount of mafia, no. That’s not a good town play, by either of you. Following a lynch policy for 2 days, also allows for 2 mafia kills, leading to a total of 4 kills. Assuming one of you were mafia; You’ve either got 4:1 (initially 2 mafia) or 3:2 (initially 3 mafia. The 4:1 isn’t bad odds, and wouldn’t be a terrible solution. 3:2 would be ridiculous, going to lynch wrong and lose based on day 1 assumptions.. in what world is that good odds? Assuming neither of you were mafia, and you both had bad reads.. the game’s practically over. 3:2 (initial 2 mafia), or Dead start of night two (initial 3 mafia). 1 in 4 of those situations is one that i’d choose to be in. N1k0, if you’re agreeing with his post you either didn't think the numbers through, or blindly thought he was posting something logical and went along with it.
I never said i thought it was a good play, i just said it led me to think him as town, since if he was scum and got lynched on day1 it would increase the town read on OK instead of a scummy read which was what LK was going for at the moment.(The only way i feel LK can be scum is if he and OK are both mafia and were bluffing really hard but i don't find that likely because it would result on a day 1 mafia lynch (especially if there are only 2 mafia, which i find more likely than 3).
Town read on Cavalinho:
My read on Cavalinho was correct, as stated in my post.. Feb 18, 04:34
You say you had a town read on Cavalinho, why didnt you switch your vote from Robik to me or LT in order to save him?
You say you had a town read on Cavalinho, why didnt you switch your vote from Robik to me or LT in order to save him?
I answered this question in my previous post.
If i’d have had a stronger read at the time, I’d have moved it to them. I didn’t. LT/Amiko were my other choices at the time, but neither read was strong enough.
Beneather I feel like he contriubited a little more than Valenious
I would however like any form of back-up on this point. I feel like I've contributed spades more than Beneather. Am I alone in this thought?
You have posted more than Beneather, but most of your post have defensive/ filler instead of giving your opinions (mainly on the topic of LT vs OK), im not saying Beneather contributed much more than you, i just feel like his post on you was a lot more committed than your posts. Of course this was before your big post tho.
If i’d have had a stronger read at the time, I’d have moved it to them. I didn’t. LT/Amiko were my other choices at the time, but neither read was strong enough.
What you are saying is you had a stronger read on Robik being mafia than Cavalinho being town?
You say you had a town read on Cavalinho, why didnt you switch your vote from Robik to me or LT in order to save him?
I answered this question in my previous post.
If i’d have had a stronger read at the time, I’d have moved it to them. I didn’t. LT/Amiko were my other choices at the time, but neither read was strong enough.
What you are saying is you had a stronger read on Robik being mafia than Cavalinho being town?
Are those the words that came out of my mouth? Let's run this through logically.
Let's say i'm 50/50 town/mafia on both on LT and Amiko. (Probably slightly biased either side, but for this 50/50 is good enough.)
I have what I believe to be a reasonable read on Cavalinho as Town. I have at the time a reasonably strong read on Robik as mafia. I believe enough in my read to leave it on Robik. If I had a stronger read on either of the other two, I switch it. Switching without having a significantly higher read on either side is me flipping a coin. Do you disagree? There's a 5 in 7 (or 4 in 7) chance that either of them are town. Those odds aren't good enough for me to flip that coin.
Now, let's take a look at when the votes were actually made.
At the time of my leaving this thread to sleep, which I made a post about, the votes were:
cavalinho: (2) Amiko, N1k0
IAmRobik: (1) Valenius
Lord Tolkien: (1) OnceKing
Beneather: (0)
theDragoon: (0)
Amiko: (1) Lord Tolkien
OnceKing: (1)
N1k0: (1) cavalinho
Still haven't voted: theDragoon, Beneather, IAmRobik
At this point Cavalinho is set to be lynched
Please remember to unvote after voting. The cycle ends in 0m 0s. PM me if you have any questions or if you see a vote out of place.
At this time, switching my vote to either of my potential scum 'reads' changes nothing.
On February 20 2014 08:18 N1k0 wrote: Sorry if you feel like i tried to put words in your mouth, i was confused of what your meant with your answer. Thanks for clearing that up.
Probably worded too strongly on my part. Apologies!
My reads on IAmRobik were based on what i’ve discussed earlier, his jumping on me when.. please correct me if i’m wrong.. there wasn’t a massive amount of suspicion on me at the time.
So you're main reason for having a scum read on IAmRobik is because he jumped on you? He said you were scummy because of this post:
Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one:
On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow
The difference between our reactions is night and day, I pretty much dismissed that accusation because there was no substance behind it. Yet, you use that post to fuel your case on Robik being scum, which isn't a good case at all, especially now that we know that Robik was town. You questioned him about that post and you continued to pursue the lynch on him. This is really scummy because up to the point where you cast your vote on Robik, you had no real case towards him being scummy other than him thinking your post was scummy. I think the main reason why you wanted Robik lynched was because he put a little pressure on you and you overreacted, which is something mafia is more likely to do. It also makes sense that he was shot during the night after your lynch attempt on him didn't gain traction.
My reads on IAmRobik were based on what i’ve discussed earlier, his jumping on me when.. please correct me if i’m wrong.. there wasn’t a massive amount of suspicion on me at the time.
So you're main reason for having a scum read on IAmRobik is because he jumped on you? He said you were scummy because of this post:
Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one:
On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow
The difference between our reactions is night and day, I pretty much dismissed that accusation because there was no substance behind it. Yet, you use that post to fuel your case on Robik being scum, which isn't a good case at all, especially now that we know that Robik was town. You questioned him about that post and you continued to pursue the lynch on him. This is really scummy because up to the point where you cast your vote on Robik, you had no real case towards him being scummy other than him thinking your post was scummy. I think the main reason why you wanted Robik lynched was because he put a little pressure on you and you overreacted, which is something mafia is more likely to do. It also makes sense that he was shot during the night after your lynch attempt on him didn't gain traction.
Did you read the longer explanation at the top of my post?
If you did and are still curious, ill respond in the morning.
A few quick comments before getting into the meat:
Focus for Today I mentioned a few times that I thought it was best if we try to focus on a few people today to avoid vote manipulation. Currently the focus seems to be on Valenius, n1k0, and Beneather. I am pretty sure I have come out with a strong read on any of these three yet because they haven’t said as much, so I’m happy with this focus and will try to give more attention to them in this post.
Loss Condition / Number of Mafia I want to point out one assumption regarding when we lose from mislynch – it is possible we survive some mislynches with successful power roles (town vigi / doctor / roleblocker). Obviously, we can’t bank on that possibility (there’s no certainty we have those roles or that they would make the right shot/save/block) and I don’t think it affects our play today, but I wanted to make the correction.
Tolkien’s Post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20828567) Tolkien points out the lurkers I mentioned above with the inclusion of theDragoon. I think looking at the lurkers is worthwhile, but I would mention that a mafia Tolkien has a nice justification for doing so. I know we can’t read too into Robik’s death, but I would note when he listed his reads earlier, his top mafia were basically the people Tolkien mentioned, plus Tolkien. So, a mafia Tolkien could want to steer the conversation to the people around him, particularly given that there were a few scum reads on him yesterday.
On February 18 2014 02:08 IAmRobik wrote: As of right now, this is where I'm at from most town to most scummy:
Me Cavalinho OnceKing TheDragoon Amiko Beneather Valenius Tolkien N1k0
Moving on to his analysis, I think I would see Valenius and Beneather as more scummy, with n1k0 as a little less scummy. It’s hard to separate them that much, but I don’t really see theDragoon as lurking, and I feel Beneather is similarly situated to Valenius- I think you cover Valenius pretty well, I don’t have much to add to that. I dislike that Beneather had some frequent posts at the beginning of the game, and has since posted very rarely. I am a little mixed about the posts here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20817073) as I discussed earlier (he says he doesn’t see Tolkien as town but only provides an example where Tolkien acts scummy). I also dislike his light response to Tolkien’s push here:
On February 18 2014 08:33 Lord Tolkien wrote: @ Beneather: Can you put forward your analysis now? I do hope you understand why I was willing to vote for Amiko after last night's series of posts, but you haven't contributed your reads and analysis yet.
On February 18 2014 10:45 Beneather wrote: As the deadline comes closer, the scummiest person that I have read so far is Valenius, he doesn't contribute anything to town's efforts of deciding on a scum and just posts nothing of actual value. He brings up IamRobik and votes him but does not bring any reasons except that IamRobik has a problem with Valenius' posts, which is not a solid argument. I believe that Valenius might be scum because he is just posting things that look like it has contributions but in all honesty have no value. They are just restating the post and not providing any information and also has a lot of side tracking in it. As far as right now I believe that Valenius is mafia.
A lot of his posts are just him defending himself but not bring any value to the discussion. That seems very scummy, just showing up for the occasional defending but then disappear before attracting too much attention and just sit back and watch town try to lynch each other.
##VOTE Valenius
It’s not that I necessarily disagree with Beneather, it’s just, I wish he had posted more reads on other players, too. I thought it was weird that Beneather hadn’t even commented on Cavalinho.
So, as to Tolkien’s discussion of these players, I think yes, Valenius looks scummy, but I do want to mention that caveat that I see Beneather somewhat similarly. Tolkien puts forward a more directed case on Valenius in the next post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20828667).
I agree with a few things Tolkien raises about OnceKing. For one, I did think OnceKing might be a night target since a few people had pointed to him as a town read (myself included). I don’t know if they were trying to avoid a medic save or not, but for now I still feel okay about my read on OnceKing (more town than scum). I was a little surprised at the night kill on IAmRobik because I was moving to pressure him, but I don’t think I can read much into that.
Aside – Beneather’s & Valenius Votes I spent a little while looking at Beneather and Valenius’ votes but I couldn’t get anything I felt was meaningful out of them. I do want to note, though, theDragoon raised Beneather and Valenius as a possible mafia team.
On February 20 2014 02:37 theDragoon wrote: @OnceKing
On my previous post I said I don't have a strong scum read on Beneather but if Valenius flips red I started thinking about his most likely partners and Beneather looks to be the most logical choice.
If you read through Val's filter, a lot of it his him asking Robik why he thinks Val is scummy. Val also voted for Robik because he pretty much didn't like Robik's read on him. However, Val never mentions Beneather at all despite Beneather actually having a solid case, and an actual vote on him. I was a bit hesitant to make this connection because I thought if they were mafia teammates then Beneather wouldn't have such a solid case against his partner. So the question is, why did Val OMGUS Robik, who didn't have a solid case against him and ignored the only guy with a real case on him with Beneather? My guess is they planned this to keep themselves apart, to eliminate any possible connections between each other. Beneather knows that Val won't get lynched since he was mainly off town's radar and votes for him so that it's less likely that we make the connection between the two.
Another thing to note is that neither of the two jumped on any of the possible bandwagons on day 1: Cavalinho, Lord Tolkien, and N1k0. Again, this supports the idea of them trying to distance themselves away from each other, and with the lack of a bandwagon it makes it easy for them to just watch town go at each other. The three way tie between Cavalinho, LT and N1k0 was also in their favor since any one of the three being lynched results in a mislynch for us.
I don’t have any strong confidence that they are a team, but I do agree that Beneather’s vote on Valenius doesn’t do anything to convince me they aren’t same-aligned.
Valenius’ comment on my Analysis re: Cavalinho & Robik Valenius argues here that I included a post from IAmRobik and misrepresent it as saying IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town:
On February 20 2014 05:51 Valenius wrote: Amiko In your post listing off posts where IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town, you’ve included one where he agrees with your analysis of Cavalinho, early-ish in Day 1. Your reads from that post are that Cavalinho was scummy. Did you include this post in the hopes no one would read it, and to pad out your post ? What’s your reason for lying about the content of that post?
I think Valenius misread the IAmRobik post he is referring to. There’s two parts of IAmRobik’s post, I think Valenius read the second without putting it in context.
On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: I kinda like theDragoon's posts in the middle of page 7 and I am willing to remove him from my lynch list for today. While I don't agree w/ him on the conclusion regarding Amiko, I am 100% in agreement with the conclusion and case that he laid out with regards to Cavalinho being town
On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: This is an excellent analysis post from Amiko and totally makes sense from his perspective. To answer his question regarding my lack of follow up, I don't know that OnceKing responded, but I really didn't care too much. I figured I should null read everyone and just assume that both mafia/town would have gotten some guidance from their coach if their post sounds too good:
Valenius’ implication that I saw Cavalinho as scum, IAmRobik is saying he agrees with me, therefore he thought IAmRobik was scum. But, if you read the post in full (the bolded, 100% part, lol) I think it is obvious IAmRobik saw Cavalinho as town so my post wasn’t misrepresenting him.
I have more to say on these posts and will put it up this PM. I accidentally deleted a post earlier so I am working back through my thoughts.
Ok... what original content have you contributed n1k0? Until very late in the day here were his only two meaningful posts:
On February 18 2014 00:39 N1k0 wrote: Oh i have been lurking since i dont feel like i have something solid to contribute yet.
On February 18 2014 00:43 N1k0 wrote: The one read i have is IAmRobik not being a vanilla townie, whether that means hes red or blue i have no idea yet.
Keep in mind that by this time I've already attacked Amiko, then withdrawn my vote, then turned around and had much of my argument with LT. And yet the person he has a read on is IAmRobik? Then I pressed him to have an opinion here:
On February 18 2014 01:08 OnceKing wrote: IAmRobik: You say some posts by Lord Tolkien are bad. Why are they bad? Just pointing out random things and calling them bad isn't going to help us.
N1k0: You say you've been lurking but you've only got one read? What about the enormous mess between Lord Tolkien and myself?? What's your opinion on that situation?
Amiko He's more likely to be town than maf, in the case hes red hes more likley to be Godfather than Roleblocker or Goon( tho i dont think theres any roleblockers since we are only 9 players) so i wouldnt waste an investigation on him since him being a Goon is the less likely scenario. Why do i think he likely to be the Godfather in the scenario he is mafia? because of him trying to drive the conversation at the start of the day and then fading away. That being said i feel hes more likely to be town because of the fact that he hasn't been trying to deflect the threats he has received, but instead he been posting with the interest of town in his mind instead of trying to save himself.
Cavalinho At the moment i feel like hes the most likely to be a red since his fast jump on OnceKing's accusation of Amiko, i feel like he saw an opportunity to get some traction behind a lynch early and jumped on it. In the case Cavalinho ends up being red that would probably mean OnceKing is town since i dont think they would both vote so quickly on the same target if they both were mafia.
Lord Tolkien I dont really know what to think, hes trying hard to get someone lynched and as soon as he saw the case against Amiko losing traction he switched his stance and went against OnceKing. He's seems to be pushing for any lynch as long as its one that would have an important effect on the lynch on d2 which i feel worried about since we dont really know how many mafia there are and getting a townie (or even a blue) lynched against 3 reds would put us on a hard position. Ultimately i'm leaning to think hes town since he appears to be ok with him getting lynched as long as it results in a lynch of OnceKing on d2 who he believes to be mafia (tho he could be bluffing).
OnceKing I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town. In the possible scenario that im wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone.
For the momment im gonna go with the ##vote Cavalinho but i'm not too confident on it
Pretty much his summary of everyone is "I don't know, could be town or could be mafia." How's it constructive to just have no opinion on anyone? He says Amiko might be Godfather using the same reasoning LT said I might be Godfather (not original content), uses the same argument that Amiko used against Cavalinho (once again, not original), then on the topic of LT and me he just doesn't have an opinion or is reluctant to give one other than "uhhhhhh not mafia i guess"
Let's go back and look at what Cavalinho posted.
On February 17 2014 16:57 Cavalinho wrote: [...] And OnceKing is my strong townread as of right now. I see absolutely no reason for anyone to vote him for any reason, so Lord Tolkein voting him makes my stomach churn. [...]
See how he, as Valenius stated, openly aligns himself with me? He just plainly says that he thinks I'm town and that LT is scummy in the other parts of the same post. On the other hand n1k0 just posts a bunch of stuff looking doubtfully at both of us, then reluctantly comes up with the most hesitant "reads" of all time, and proceeds to (meekly) vote for Cavalinho.
We can see the trend of meekness continues to stick out:
On February 18 2014 02:54 N1k0 wrote: Amiko He's more likely to be town than maf, in the case hes red hes more likley to be Godfather than Roleblocker or Goon( tho i dont think theres any roleblockers since we are only 9 players) so i wouldnt waste an investigation on him since him being a Goon is the less likely scenario. Why do i think he likely to be the Godfather in the scenario he is mafia? because of him trying to drive the conversation at the start of the day and then fading away. That being said i feel hes more likely to be town because of the fact that he hasn't been trying to deflect the threats he has received, but instead he been posting with the interest of town in his mind instead of trying to save himself.
I addressed this before: his initial post is not enough to condemn him as godfather, and he didn't "fade away". It can be construed as scummy yes, but the other conclusions aren't the best. He was indeed deflecting the threats at the time of his case opening, and attempting to explain his reasoning.
Cavalinho At the moment i feel like hes the most likely to be a red since his fast jump on OnceKing's accusation of Amiko, i feel like he saw an opportunity to get some traction behind a lynch early and jumped on it. In the case Cavalinho ends up being red that would probably mean OnceKing is town since i dont think they would both vote so quickly on the same target if they both were mafia.
Your argument is mostly just about his bandwagoning. Is there any other reason you're voting him over, say, me? I would like an explanation.
Lord Tolkien I dont really know what to think, hes trying hard to get someone lynched and as soon as he saw the case against Amiko losing traction he switched his stance and went against OnceKing. He's seems to be pushing for any lynch as long as its one that would have an important effect on the lynch on d2 which i feel worried about since we dont really know how many mafia there are and getting a townie (or even a blue) lynched against 3 reds would put us on a hard position. Ultimately i'm leaning to think hes town since he appears to be ok with him getting lynched as long as it results in a lynch of OnceKing on d2 who he believes to be mafia (tho he could be bluffing).
My issue with this underlined section is that I swapped my stance against OnceKing after he swapped over to me, I think that's pretty clear. I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning, and it was solidified after the random move onto me (and indicated as such before he pushed onto me).
You are correct: I'm looking for a lynch on Day 1 that will have the most impact for town in Day 2, given the unlikelihood of us actually lynching scum. If I'm that lynch, so be it, I'm fine with it.
Based on your analysis, the extrapolation is that we should be lynching me Day 1, so we can get a clear picture of OnceKing and lynch him, or progress onto Cal Day 2 if I ended up turning red.
OnceKing I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town. In the possible scenario that im wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone.
I still don't buy this, as being the first one to throw the stone, and then not really committing to the case, is just as readily done by a godfather looking to misdirect town attention; first onto Amiko, and then about-face onto me, after I gave my read about him either being town or possibly godfather. If I ended up green or blue, no suspicion would've been cast onto him if I wasn't being so vocal about a double-lynch (or vig shot at night if I turned up green). He was directly pushing hard onto me until I brought that up; now he's just referencing it in passing instead of actively pushing a case (like Amiko, again), and that I think is damning. His opinions are fairly unclear, and without strong reasoning involved thus far.
But it again is just me, and people don't believe me.
I also don't see why there needs to be three mafia with him being the first one to throw an accusation. That's a needless extrapolation.
For the momment im gonna go with the ##vote Cavalinho but i'm not too confident on it
Very indecisive, potential for yourself to pull it out later and say you weren't sure. Personally, I take it scummy; indecisive votes are my pet peeve. Decide on a vote and be decisive about it.
I'll open this up as a possible valid avenue of lynch and be willing to move my vote to him if everyone else decides upon it, but there's very little time and I'm expecting Cav or me (currently it appears to beCav) to be lynched.
I'll try to respond to the doubts you have but ill be brief since im heading out
First about Amiko, i started feeling him to be a red but as the day went on this suspicion went lower and lower, currently i believe him to be town, the reason i think that if he is red he's likely to be godfather is that since he tried to start the conversation which would most likely bring attention to himself which if he were red would make him vulnerable to not only getting lynched but also an investigation (which would not be a problem if he were godfather), but as i said i feel he is more likely to be town that mafia at the moment.
Why Cavalinho and not you, Cavalinho seems way more defensive than you do, and you argue with the town in mind instead of trying to save your own ass, even saying that what good could actually come out of your lynch (tho you could be a really good bluffer), plus i feel like Cavalinho jumped way too fast behind OnceKing's acusation of Amiko, 10 minutes after OnceKing's post looks like he saw an opportunity to get traction behind someone and jumped on it before it could fade away.
I agree with you that my indecisive vote is a really scummy thing to do, but i was just being honest about it, i am not sure of his mafianess but i feel like he is the most likely one to be at the time.
Im heading out now, but ill try to come back before the end of the cycle.
On February 19 2014 06:27 Amiko wrote: n1k0 n1k0, I don't think I've pushed on your actions very much. Your posts don't give me to much to work with, which I dislike. Let's start here:
1) Given the information you have right now, who are three people you think could be potential lynches tomorrow and why?
2) I put a post above discussing Robik's vote. What do you think of my analysis on that vote?
3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently. If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). Where do you think mafia would tend to vote?
Sorry i want able to respond earlier, but here we go. 1) I feel like right now we should be looking hard at the lurkers, Valenious, Beneather and myself mainly because of the lowest amount of information in order to form reads.
Valenious Right now i feel like hes the most likely to be scum, this is because i feel like his posts have been the less comitted ones out of all (mainly being defensive ones), he avoided jumping on any of the 3 likely lynches on day 1 (myself, LT, Cav) and kept his vote on Robik, he could've saved Cav by switching to me or LT (who he said would've been his other choice with Amiko if he didnt vote Robik).
Overall, I'd be choosing between IAmRobik / LT / Amiko. The issue with this is, I can't see LT having pushed so hard (see above) on Amiko that early in the game if they were bros.
##vote IAmRobik
[..]
LT/Amiko would be my other choices, and as I stated I cant get a solid read on LT, so i'm avoiding the LT/Amiko vote for the moment.
The only townie move out of him i saw was pushing me to post my thoughts.
Beneather I feel like he contriubited a little more than Valenious but not too much. He too like valenious voted for someone out of the 3 2 vote lynces which i see as a scummy move trying to keep uncommited, when he casted his vote and posted his case on Valenious he was not likely to be lynched since this was the first acussation being thrown at Valenious there wasnt much time left on the day for there to be a 2 vote switch onto Valenious.
You asked me to list you three potential lynches for today but i dont have anyone that i read as likely scum outside of Valenous and Beneather at the moment. I do have a strong town read on LT, i would have a moderate town read on theDragoon if it wasnt because of his vote on LT because he thought he saw a mafia slip on him.
2) Im not what post were you referring to.
3) As i said in my suspisions of Beneather and Valenous i feel like scum would love to manage to get a misslynch without commiting at all on any of the likley lynches. I have a soft town read on you at the moment, the fact that Cav flipped green doesnt change my opinion of you because i feel like we both read him as scum because of the same reasons.
While the second post might LOOK good let's take a look at what he's REALLY saying. Note the tone of fear and not wanting to stick out in his posts!
First he suggests we should look towards inactives. Wonderful! Except all he does is give names, and everyone knows who's been inactive already -- not to mention this isn't something that Amiko and I haven't already said. Then he just parrots what Amiko and Beneather have said about Valenius, then talks about Beneather with exactly the same stuff Amiko was using with potential vote switches to save a townie Cavalinho. If he were town, shouldn't he just say something such as "ya I agree"? Why need to fake that you have something to add and type a lot when you can get your point across concisely? The only reason is because he wants to look like he's contributing.
Once again, he really refuses to point fingers except at Valenius who's already fallen under suspicion and on top of that didn't provide his own reasons to be suspicious of him, merely others' -- this might be ok had he simply said that he agreed but instead he made a big long post that boiled down to "please think I'm contributing as I bandwagon this vote".
In fact, of his three points, 1 was already brought up by others such as Amiko, LT and me (Amiko did votes and said mafia wouldn't switch, LT looked at activity and said mafia are inactive, I looked at topics of discussion and said mafia were avoiding them) 2 doesn't even mean anything 3 is repeating what he said in 1, which as I stated was already brought up. None of this is original content and it seems he's been trying his best to pretend as if he's contributing when really he isn't.
Here's another golden example of parroting what's already been said:
Beneather I feel like he contriubited a little more than Valenious
I would however like any form of back-up on this point. I feel like I've contributed spades more than Beneather. Am I alone in this thought?
You have posted more than Beneather, but most of your post have defensive/ filler instead of giving your opinions (mainly on the topic of LT vs OK), im not saying Beneather contributed much more than you, i just feel like his post on you was a lot more committed than your posts. Of course this was before your big post tho.
All of this is enough evidence for me to ##VOTE n1k0
I will around on and off the rest of the night if anyone wants to talk through things or ask my thoughts on anything. In the meantime will read through the last hour or two of posts and try to present a few things.
Two quick questions that are more technical rather than game talk:
1) Is there any way to have a filter with two people in it? Like, if I want to see player A and B speaking in order but not the rest of the comments in between? 2) Is there an easier way to post quotes than to click quote on each post and copy and paste the relevant parts?
I read through Valenius' explanation of his vote on IAmRobik and I think it makes a little sense from his point of view. I don't know, I guess I saw Robik's as trying to get leads by calling out XYZ as scummy or towny just to see how people responded. For my part I think I mostly wrote those posts off because they seemed ambiguous or just joking around. I can imagine that Valenius would feel that these were scum (as I think Tolkien felt with OnceKing and I felt with Cavalinho). So, I don't put too much into Valenius' vote on IAmRobik.
I do feel that n1k0 is backpacking on other people's posts. I somehow missed that he essentially repeated my question to Robik, though (which OnceKing points out). I could see that as pressing someone to answer something they didn't answer previously, but I think I would have written it more like "what abc is asking is xyz".
--
I am still unsure about this so I want to have a few questions for Beneather to answer if/when he shows up.
@Beneather: I asked this one yesterday which I don't think he answered (in the one post he made since then).
On February 18 2014 06:07 Amiko wrote: I see this post as more noncommittal than scummy. I at least want to see Beneather commit more. Beneather, if you don’t think Tolkien is scum, is there anything you see as weighing against him as town?
Here are three questions I want to start with: 1) Would you support a vote on n1k0 today? 2) Would you support a vote on Valenius todday? 3) What is your current read on Tolkien?
On February 20 2014 02:37 theDragoon wrote: @OnceKing
On my previous post I said I don't have a strong scum read on Beneather but if Valenius flips red I started thinking about his most likely partners and Beneather looks to be the most logical choice.
If you read through Val's filter, a lot of it his him asking Robik why he thinks Val is scummy. Val also voted for Robik because he pretty much didn't like Robik's read on him. However, Val never mentions Beneather at all despite Beneather actually having a solid case, and an actual vote on him. I was a bit hesitant to make this connection because I thought if they were mafia teammates then Beneather wouldn't have such a solid case against his partner. So the question is, why did Val OMGUS Robik, who didn't have a solid case against him and ignored the only guy with a real case on him with Beneather? My guess is they planned this to keep themselves apart, to eliminate any possible connections between each other. Beneather knows that Val won't get lynched since he was mainly off town's radar and votes for him so that it's less likely that we make the connection between the two.
Another thing to note is that neither of the two jumped on any of the possible bandwagons on day 1: Cavalinho, Lord Tolkien, and N1k0. Again, this supports the idea of them trying to distance themselves away from each other, and with the lack of a bandwagon it makes it easy for them to just watch town go at each other. The three way tie between Cavalinho, LT and N1k0 was also in their favor since any one of the three being lynched results in a mislynch for us.
While this is a plausible outcome, the same applies to myself and OnceKing, or OnceKing and Amiko, and Amiko and myself.
I disagree, in that I find it highly unlikely that mafia would bring up a reasonable case against themselves FIRST (as Beneather's was), . and that extrapolating that if Valenius flipped red, it would entail his complicity. It could be possible that they are, but as with my previous explanation of why I think it's unlikely we have MORE than one mafia amongst the 3 Day 1 participants, I apply my skepticism here as well. It's far more likely for mafia to start bussing one of their own when the lynch seems nearly inevitable.
That being said, Beneather did post his vote after you posted yours on myself and we had ourselves a possible deadlock, so it is a possible explanation for that. However, I am just going to apply Occam's Razor for a moment and view that as mere coincidence. His continued non-contribution concerns me, however.
Additionally, what is your view on N1K0? You've spent most of your analysis on just Valenius and the possibilities that arise from lynching him. It's not a shoo-in at this point. What do you think a red flip of N1K0 means?
My vote was on OnceKing at that time, and Cavalinho's vote was on Amiko (NOT N1k0; he had no votes on him). I was originally going to point out that based on the vote post beforehand Amiko had no votes, but reviewing Cavalinho's filter, you are correct, as it would've been a MAJOR discrepancy. That being said, your sleep post was posted 45 minutes before Cavalinho swapped his vote to N1k0.
Voting for Robik at the time, with not case presented is odd, and I feel everyone else has done a good enough job picking out why it was (link). If you had felt that he was scum, you should've brought it up and pushed it, like I was poking Cavalinho to do based on his early scumread on IAmRobik (he didn't).
The second post, dissuading my inquest into game setup (Note: Not role setup, game setup) was just dismissing my question. As i’ve stated since, my question wasn’t an aim to dig out roles of people, but to find out the Mafia/Town setup. I still disagree with those of you that say this isn’t important. 3 Mafia: If we mislynch tonight, we lose. 2 Mafia: There’s another day. Behaviour patterns. If you’re looking for 3 mafia, and trying to make connections between 3 players, and it turns out there’s only 2.. your whole analysis of player relations will be off.The same is true for the other situation.
The goal is not to mislynch tonight. A Day 1 mislynch is highly probable due to the lack of information to extrapolate from.
While the point about behavior is noted, this is not relevant today (and arguably Day 1). It changes the likelihood and distribution of scum to probably be 2 lurkers+1 active Day 1 participant most likely, from 1-2 lurkers and 0-1 active Day 1 participant pools. It doesn't change our main strategy or lynch pattern at this time. We'll know if there are 2-3 mafia if we mislynch green (because we'll likely lose during the night if 3); if we lynch a red, then it becomes useful to extrapolate whether or not we have 1 or 2 left. This is more relevant Day 3 given our current trajectory.
When I read Robik's quoted post on you, I construed it as mostly as a joke, (and if not, mafia bait). You reacted quite strongly to it. The same goes for the underlined quote. Your reaction to both was certainly scummy.
I won't comment on your additional thoughts (I agree with some of them, and disagree with others), but on the questions specifically directed towards me.
Tolkien’s post following last night (Feb 19, 13:49). You stated that my vote on Robik was when no real case was brought up against me. Then, in your discussion on arguments with OnceKing you stated the issue you had were the multiple minor details he was bringing up ‘Grasping for straws’. This is the same reason which made me vote him. His original read on my scummy-ness was because I went to bed at 3:00am when the game started. Just wtf.
My main focus was the fact he was pointing out joke lines (which I thought were clear) and specific word usage, ex. (newbie), in his initial lynch case against me. Unlike with Robik, there was essentially a formal case presented by him against me which I found worrying alarm bells in (instead of just pouncing on Robik for his reads). The other points are valid and I would not have gotten a mafia read if he had just pointed those out without mentioning the other points.
Again, it was a joke line from what I can tell, or bait.
In your response to Tolkiens questions about your first real post you brought up that LT saying what good could come out of his lynch.. on Day1, with an undetermined amount of mafia, no. That’s not a good town play, by either of you. Following a lynch policy for 2 days, also allows for 2 mafia kills, leading to a total of 4 kills. Assuming one of you were mafia; You’ve either got 4:1 (initially 2 mafia) or 3:2 (initially 3 mafia. The 4:1 isn’t bad odds, and wouldn’t be a terrible solution. 3:2 would be ridiculous, going to lynch wrong and lose based on day 1 assumptions.. in what world is that good odds? Assuming neither of you were mafia, and you both had bad reads.. the game’s practically over. 3:2 (initial 2 mafia), or Dead start of night two (initial 3 mafia). 1 in 4 of those situations is one that i’d choose to be in. Either way, it’s pretty scummy. Tolkien. you’ve been reasonably smart throughout so far, did you not run the numbers?
This and your much earlier carelessness for lynching Amiko “at this point it doesnt matter” are showing you as very lynch-happy. If you’re bluffing and hoping the “I’ll martyr myself” post for lynchings was a town move, it isn’t. I’m disappointed I didn’t pick up on it earlier.
I need clarification on the first part. Are you talking about the double-lynch proposal?
On the second part, noted, but I've discussed this to death, and explained myself here far too often.
@N1K0
I do have a strong town read on LT, i would have a moderate town read on theDragoon if it wasnt because of his vote on LT because he thought he saw a mafia slip on him.
Why do you have a strong town read on me? If I were stepping back from myself for a moment, I wouldn't have a strong town read on myself after Day 1. Middling at best.
Also, why do you read theDragoon as town again, and why did his vote on me impact your read so?
That being said, ##vote n1k0, based solely on the quality of contributions thus far from the two, but I am strongly reserving the right to change my vote pending additional analysis, and I am still waiting on Beneather to comment today. Still, this is where I'm leaning now.
@LT, hopefully youll know which parts im on about without me quoting..
With regards to the vote numbers, youre right. Ive counted your vote on onceking (the numbers there) just not your name. It seems I misnoted cava's vote, but either way it still only brings amiko to 1 vote. (Please correct me here if you feel im wrong and ill take another look.
Secondly, yes the double lynch situation put forward of lynching yourself, but only if we lynch onceking in the following day.
Christ, its active today isnt? Managed 10 hours without a post from any players. Beneather, where are you? Amiko, whos your most likely vote target for today?
N1k0, theres 3 of us with votes on you now, and you havent made any real solid defense.. whats with that?
@Lord Tolkien As I stated previously, I have a slight scum read on N1k0, however I have a stronger scum read on Valenius, which is why I voted him. Also, until after I read OnceKing's case against N1k0, I didn't really notice how he mostly piggybacked onto other people's posts without contributing anything original and this does make him look very scummy. I can see that being poor town play and analytical skills or just straight up mafia play.
If N1k0 gets lynched today and flips red this makes Valenius more likely to be town because he is the first player on day 2 to vote N1k0. There’s no way a mafia Valenius would initiate the lynch on his teammate who has already gotten suspicions from everyone. If Valenius is mafia, then his vote would be cast later after he sees N1k0’s situation unsalvageable. But if N1k0 flips green, then Valenius is definitely the best lynch target on day 3.
Mod question: If Beneather doesn’t post and gets modkilled does he still get replaced?
On February 21 2014 02:40 theDragoon wrote: Mod question: If Beneather doesn’t post and gets modkilled does he still get replaced?
That's usually a judgement call based on the activity of that player during the first few days and the availability of replacements. Generally, we do try to replace players during the first two cycles if possible.
OnceKing, Whilst the lack of .. anything.. has been happening: I've been thinking through various theories that could explain the inactivity.
1) Mafia are feeling safe because n1k0 is a mislynch, and that vote's almost sealed with this amount of activity. 2) Mafia don't have any faith in n1k0 avoiding a lynch, and are just distancing themselves from him. 3) They've emigrated to mars.
I also have another (slightly reaching) theory.
IF we have 3 mafia: There are currently 3 votes on n1k0, 1 vote on me, and 3 unaccounted for.
If it gets to the end of the day and the votes stay the same; 3 mafia moving their votes to me gets me lynched. theDragoon, who I still have a town read on has his vote on me, which allows for an additional 3 votes, leading to a 4-vote majority. I die, mafia wins, gg.
I know it's an unlikely theory, but I think it should at least be considered. My question leading out from this is: theDragoon, do you believe your vote on me is better than a majority vote on n1k0? If this theory is correct, solidarity between town votes is needed.
Everyone else (incl OnceKing): What do you think about these above theories? Obviously the last one is very.. hypothetical. Just consider it.
Why do you have a strong town read on me? If I were stepping back from myself for a moment, I wouldn't have a strong town read on myself after Day 1. Middling at best.
Your opinion on day1 of being ok with a self lynch as long as i gave information on OnceKing who you thought at the time was scum i see as the towniest move out of day1, even if i didn't think it was a good move at the time (which i explained more on a previous question from Valenious + Show Spoiler +
), i thought that the move had no possible positive outcome if you were scum-
Also, why do you read theDragoon as town again, and why did his vote on me impact your read so? .
His vote on you looked odd to me, specially since he based it on part of what he thought was a slip on your part. He later explained his reasoning on this. + Show Spoiler +
I called it a slip because I wasn't really thinking of the mafia QT and the fact that he mentioned it could imply that he's been using it. I might be reaching with this but that was my thought process behind it.
He has done nothing to lead me to believe him to be scum outside of this.
On February 20 2014 12:47 Amiko wrote: on n1k0 I do feel that n1k0 is backpacking on other people's posts. I somehow missed that he essentially repeated my question to Robik, though (which OnceKing points out). I could see that as pressing someone to answer something they didn't answer previously, but I think I would have written it more like "what abc is asking is xyz".
Its true that i have been using other peoples opinions in order to mold mines there's no point me saying i haven't, this is on part because the reads i felt more comfortable about on day1 were wrong.
Why do you have a strong town read on me? If I were stepping back from myself for a moment, I wouldn't have a strong town read on myself after Day 1. Middling at best.
Your opinion on day1 of being ok with a self lynch as long as i gave information on OnceKing who you thought at the time was scum i see as the towniest move out of day1, even if i didn't think it was a good move at the time (which i explained more on a previous question from Valenious + Show Spoiler +
On February 18 2014 06:07 Amiko wrote: I see this post as more noncommittal than scummy. I at least want to see Beneather commit more. Beneather, if you don’t think Tolkien is scum, is there anything you see as weighing against him as town?
Here are three questions I want to start with: 1) Would you support a vote on n1k0 today? 2) Would you support a vote on Valenius todday? 3) What is your current read on Tolkien?
Sorry for being inactive, had some rl stuff to do.
First off, N1k0 seems to be most likely scum as he even stated that he has just backpacked on other people's opinions, that is rather scummy as mafia will try to stay in the shadows and just follow other people's and bandwagon a townie lynch. N1k0 is a big candidate and is probably the lynch for today. How he turns will decide the outcome of how this game will play.
@Valenius seems scummy to me as well. He points out that I am a scum candidate but doesn't provide any evidence except that all my reads can be turned to myself. Well yes, it can be as I have not been playing the best town due to my inactivity and lack of contribution. All my reads on other people can be turned against me and make myself looks scummy, however i know that I am town so why would I make reads on myself that I am mafia, that doesn't help anyone and is not the point of this game. I am suppose to give my reads on everyone else that is playing the game. You calling me scum seems like a retaliation for voting for you on day one and putting some spotlight on you.
You say you had a town read on Cavalinho, why didnt you switch your vote from Robik to me or LT in order to save him?
I answered this question in my previous post.
If i’d have had a stronger read at the time, I’d have moved it to them. I didn’t. LT/Amiko were my other choices at the time, but neither read was strong enough.
What you are saying is you had a stronger read on Robik being mafia than Cavalinho being town?
Are those the words that came out of my mouth? Let's run this through logically.
Let's say i'm 50/50 town/mafia on both on LT and Amiko. (Probably slightly biased either side, but for this 50/50 is good enough.)
I have what I believe to be a reasonable read on Cavalinho as Town. I have at the time a reasonably strong read on Robik as mafia. I believe enough in my read to leave it on Robik. If I had a stronger read on either of the other two, I switch it. Switching without having a significantly higher read on either side is me flipping a coin. Do you disagree? There's a 5 in 7 (or 4 in 7) chance that either of them are town. Those odds aren't good enough for me to flip that coin.
You say that you have a strong read on Cavalinho being town but you keep your vote on Robik instead of trying to save the obvious town Cavalinho. It still doesn't make sense to me( I think someone brought this up but whatever).
On February 21 2014 04:46 Valenius wrote: OnceKing, Whilst the lack of .. anything.. has been happening: I've been thinking through various theories that could explain the inactivity.
1) Mafia are feeling safe because n1k0 is a mislynch, and that vote's almost sealed with this amount of activity. 2) Mafia don't have any faith in n1k0 avoiding a lynch, and are just distancing themselves from him. 3) They've emigrated to mars.
I also have another (slightly reaching) theory.
IF we have 3 mafia: There are currently 3 votes on n1k0, 1 vote on me, and 3 unaccounted for.
If it gets to the end of the day and the votes stay the same; 3 mafia moving their votes to me gets me lynched. theDragoon, who I still have a town read on has his vote on me, which allows for an additional 3 votes, leading to a 4-vote majority. I die, mafia wins, gg.
I know it's an unlikely theory, but I think it should at least be considered. My question leading out from this is: theDragoon, do you believe your vote on me is better than a majority vote on n1k0? If this theory is correct, solidarity between town votes is needed.
Everyone else (incl OnceKing): What do you think about these above theories? Obviously the last one is very.. hypothetical. Just consider it.
This is also a very good scum post. You are trying to put fear of the town losing if they do lynch you I like it! Scare town so they don't lynch mafia awesome ! You have one vote on you as of right now and you think it can simply change to you and are frightened by that chance. Why are you scared of being lynched? There is only one vote on you as of right now and you even brought up that it would be unlikely for it to be changed from n1k0 due to activity.
On Tolkien his read is very town to me and I would be shocked if he was scum. He has been the most active and his posts have a lot of content in them.
This is also a very good scum post. You are trying to put fear of the town losing if they do lynch you I like it! Scare town so they don't lynch mafia awesome ! You have one vote on you as of right now and you think it can simply change to you and are frightened by that chance. Why are you scared of being lynched? There is only one vote on you as of right now and you even brought up that it would be unlikely for it to be changed from n1k0 due to activity.
I've got very little pressure on me compared to n1k0. If I'm mafia; I post a few opinions early on, and sit back and blend into the inactivity. I don't post, multiple times throughout the day when basically nobody else is.
I'm the only one who posted for almost 1/4 of the day phase, There's no where I'd be willing to draw that sort of attention if I'm mafia. I'm not scared (I don't believe it's a possibility) of being lynched today, if it plays out as it is. If it plays out as it is, and the 3 missing votes are placed based on each of your reads; I believe n1k0 will be lynched.
The whole point of my theory post was to discuss the things that may happen if the day doesn't play out as it currently is. That situation scares me, yet that situation is only possible if all 3 of the Mafia choose to vote on me. You're asking me why I'd be scared if all 3 of the Mafia are voting on me? What sort of a question is that?. If there are only 2 mafia, then this situation is not possible, and 1 vote on me doesn't worry me.
Lastly, again: Do you really think I'd be making that sort of post (One that I knew would come under scrutiny based on earlier aggression against role/setup talk) if i'm trying to coast through the day?
I have a mafia read on you, your post is not making that read more townie..
On February 21 2014 02:09 Valenius wrote: Amiko, whos your most likely vote target for today?
I still feel it’s very tough to pick between n1k0, Beneather, and Valenius. I have been hoping that one of the three would put up something that swayed me one way or another but it hasn’t happened.
At this point, though, I think it’s important that I try to put up a vote because it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect to get anything that will give me a strong read.
I don’t expect Beneather to respond in a meaningful way. If Beneather is mafia, there is no real pressure on him to post something. A few people have given him soft town read, but more importantly the votes have come in on someone else (n1k0). We can point to Beneather’s silence and ask questions to the air, but if it’s not enough to convince us to vote on him, it won’t matter to him. If Beneather is town, I don’t feel his silence is helpful to us. Since he voted to lynch Valenius day 1, I feel he has an obligation to give comments on Valenius’ day 2 comments. Particularly so when Valenius voted for him day 2. This makes me disbelieve the possibility he is a lurking town and prefer the conclusion he is idle town or mafia. In either case, I don’t expect to get anything from him that is likely to give me good reads.
So, I feel a vote on Beneather is not that well founded (because of his inactivity) and unlikely to give much information (based on considering him mafia or idle town).
So, I think I am deciding between n1k0 and Valentius. n1k0 and Valenius are both responding to posts and pressure, but I am not getting a strong read from either one. Generally, Valenius is more offensive, n1k0 more defensive. I understand feeling less confident in reads after day1 (since mine were wrong as well), but I feel if I were town in n1k0’s situation I would try to more actively make a case who I felt was mafia if only because I knew myself to be town.
I think the same thing comes up here from n1k0-
On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote: Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means?
I get that this is asking questions, and that’s nice. But I feel that if you are town and you feel like the vote is going to land on you, you should be giving our reads and thoughts on the premise that town will want to consider them after you flip. At least, I think that’s what prompted me to start volunteering a lot more of my thoughts day 1. (To be fair, I don’t think Cavalinho really did that day 1, but I feel like n1k0’s vote has more momentum than his)
OK I JUST REFRESHED AND SAW BENEATHER POSTED SO IM GONNA READ THAT :X
theDragoon, i'm still looking for an answer to this earlier question:
theDragoon, do you believe your vote on me is better than a majority vote on n1k0? If this theory is correct, solidarity between town votes is needed.
OnceKing, LordTolkien: You've both been the most vocal throughout this game so far, yet you've been very quiet for the last half day. What's up? What are you reading on the current situations?
On February 21 2014 06:28 Amiko wrote: Particularly so when Valenius voted for him day 2.
Quick correction: I haven't voted for Beneather. My vote is on n1k0. I listed Beneather as one of my softer mafia reads.
You're right, sorry about that. Also I think you must read much faster than me :o
-- My last post was basically going to end that I conclude it's best to vote on n1k0, but I saw Beneather posted so wanted to see if I could pull anything from it. I don't, really. Beneather's post doesn't do much to change what I typed except (to me) it makes it less likely he is idle town. I don't find his post above does much of anything for my reads for or against him.
On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote: Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means?
I think this is a good question, but I think I should not respond until just before night 2. I am going to certainly going to try to look at vote & flips during night2, but I think your flip will have more of a bearing on who I see as town or scum tomorrow and I don't want to point to that part of the analysis just yet. (If I forget someone please poke me to remind me to post those thoughts during n2)
Based on the above post and thoughts now, my preference for today's lynch is n1k0, then beneather. I will be back before the votes and probably here as the clock ticks down.
theDragoon, do you believe your vote on me is better than a majority vote on n1k0? If this theory is correct, solidarity between town votes is needed.
OnceKing, LordTolkien: You've both been the most vocal throughout this game so far, yet you've been very quiet for the last half day. What's up? What are you reading on the current situations?
I cast my vote on you before I read OnceKing's case on n1k0 and at the time you were far and away the scummiest person remaining. Right now based on what others have said about N1k0 (mainly OK's post) I have both of you as my top scum reads. To answer your question, I am willing to change my vote to n1k0 to have a majority vote on him.
I assume im getting lynched today so ill post the only read i have which is given valenious recent activity i believe beneather to be the scummiest looking one left(assuming im dead) ##vote beneather
lol what situation the situation is that n1k0 is getting lynched, there's not a whole lot of stuff to say about it (yet). He isn't even bothering to deny it.
As for your scenarios I really think you're overly concerned about this -- let's just kill the scum
On February 20 2014 16:09 Valenius wrote: Secondly, yes the double lynch situation put forward of lynching yourself, but only if we lynch onceking in the following day.
It's a gambit I was willing to take at the time. If I turned up red, there is no reason for you to lynch him: if I turn up green, there's still no need for you to actually follow through on it, no one actually agreed to it.
The trade is only bad if there are 3 mafia: if there are only 2 mafia and my read was correct, the exchange is incredibly good.
Even if there were 3 mafia, it's still 2 mislynches and we lose. As we were likely going to mislynch anyways Day 1, It would've been worth it. As is, the proposal was still useful despite it's non-use for me to gauge other players and their reactions (despite my wavering as the game progressed).
I'm not commenting on anything hypothetical about mafia numbers until after the flip, and any speculation right now is silly. If there are 3 mafia and a green flip, they win. If it's a green flip and they don't win, we have 2 mafia. If red flip, either 1 mafia (most likely) or 2. No use talking about it. The flip will determine the course of the game and how the effective endgame will play out.
Depending on the flip, the vigi (if we have one) should shoot tonight or tomorrow night 100%. If green, and we don't lose (we most likely won't lose), I would shoot their scummiest read tonight. 50% chance of hitting scum, skewed by reads. If red, up to you.
On February 21 2014 05:54 Beneather wrote:You say that you have a strong read on Cavalinho being town but you keep your vote on Robik instead of trying to save the obvious town Cavalinho. It still doesn't make sense to me( I think someone brought this up but whatever).
His post that he went to sleep makes sense, given timezone and vote distribution at the time, despite the errors in his defense. The reasoning clears.
On Tolkien his read is very town to me and I would be shocked if he was scum. He has been the most active and his posts have a lot of content in them.
Why?
Your reads on everyone else? I asked for that last time and you didn't provide.
I'm honestly on the fence about whom I feel is scummiest, but given N1K0 has given basically no defense for himself, I can't even in good conscience change it.
I'm around- I just want to note (again) I would like to encourage analysis in the night phase if we are still going, but if people would prefer it waits until day that is okay with me.
For the moment these are the questions I am thinking about. We can talk about them d2 if you guys prefer (or maybe put it in a last minute nightpost).
(1) Is there any reason why n1k0 didn't try claiming a town role to try to save himself? (2) Do you think it is more likely mafia joined the vote on n1k0 (all but theDragoon) or voted Valenius (theDragoon) (3) How good does this feel (spoiler: really good)
This feels so good, my last mafia game we had no successful lynches so it puts a huge smile on my face seeing that red text show up. OnceKing you are the MVP for this one.
On February 21 2014 12:25 Amiko wrote: n1k0? more like d2k2! (day 2 kill 2)
I think this flip gives us some good info.
For the moment these are the questions I am thinking about. We can talk about them d2 if you guys prefer (or maybe put it in a last minute nightpost).
(1) Is there any reason why n1k0 didn't try claiming a town role to try to save himself? (2) Do you think it is more likely mafia joined the vote on n1k0 (all but theDragoon) or voted Valenius (theDragoon) (3) How good does this feel (spoiler: really good)
I would do so if you believe you are a potential mafia target.
I'll try and do so this night (almost did it last night, but didn't feel it was necessary given probable mafia kills), but we'll see.
1) My guess is that he knew he was pretty much fucked. This is tied into the answer to question #2 which I'll expand upon next. His goal once he knew he was caught was probably just to say a bunch of stuff and throw suspicion into random directions since he was going to be lynched (for example his vote on Beneather is completely WIFOM and doesn't mean anything and so doesn't really bear discussing) 2) I think the mafia bussed him. Of course there's no way to know this but I'm reminded of this: XXXVIII Boot Camp/Analysis. Here's what Ver said on the topic:
So as soon as we hit red, that was one mafia down. Obviously that had an enormous effect on the game, because there was not one single lynch where the mafia team mobilized their forces to take us on in the thread and in the voting booth at once. Instead every single time they hurriedly stepped to the side and said 'please, go right ahead and kill my buddy good sir.' Pretty awesome right?
Looking forward I think my top suspects/people I'm looking at hardest will be inactives (obviously) and people who were very hesitant or reluctant to vote for N1k0 who (imo) had a pretty clear cut case against him. My strongest town read is LT (hilarious how I would never have said this day 1) with the way he's been posting since he's being forward and making a lot of sense.
I won't expand much on these, but main thoughts heading into d3 are:
theDragoon, why was your vote still on me? I realise my 'theory' was pretty unlikely, but you keeping your vote on me still gave that a chance. Why didn't you switch?
N1k0's vote: Really, I don't think we can base too much off this. It's a complete chance pick between him throwing it on his mafia buddy, or choosing a random town. I'll look back through his filter to see if i see anything, but I wouldn't base too much off of this.
However, the votes on n1k0: I feel OnceKing's line of thought on this is sound, people more reluctant/took longer to vote on n1k0 should be first priorities.
I actually agree here with Amiko that we should be contributing at night. It's a meta argument here: we didn't want mafia to kill people who were making sense last time but this time having already read the thread they already know who the movers of town discussion are so there's no reason not to be talking at night -- plus, if everyone talks then nobody stands out as an extraordinary target anyway. Not doing this the last night was a mistake.
Also here's a meta nitpick
On February 20 2014 12:54 Lord Tolkien wrote: I would like Beneather to contribute NOW, and I will bring up a case against you, even if only to pressure.
You shouldn't ever say that you are "voting to pressure" or "building a case for pressure" because that defeats the purpose of it (they know that you don't really think they're scum, so they're not threatened by it, so there's no pressure).
But back to the topic at hand! So, inactives and hesitant voters: actually not that many people were inactive day 2 other than Beneather. We know the people who were inactive on day 1 though, and we also want to look for hesitant voters. Keep in mind when I say hesitant voters here I don't necessarily mean people who have voted N1k0 late but instead people who are either: a) looking for reasons not to vote him/vote someone else b) bring up convincing points vs N1k0 but do not follow them up (relatively quickly) with their vote c) bring up convincing points vs N1k0 but vote for someone else
I haven't time yet to look through everyone's filters to determine who fits these criteria as I have class in fifteen minutes, but I will be when my day ends and everyone else should too.
Okay, here are some of my current thoughts based on the votes and flip.
(1) I feel confident Valenius is town Whether there are two or three mafia in the game, I feel it is highly unlikely they would begin day 2 by pressuring their mafia teammate n1k0. On this basis, I now feel very good about Valenius because I feel he opened the case against n1k0 and placed his vote on n1k0. This is particularly good because Valenius presented as less towny (at least to me) and among my lynch candidates going into d2, so having him now present as very likely town puts us in a good position.
To explain this reasoning more in depth: If there are three mafia, they only needed to get one mislynch to almost certainly secure a win. In this case, I don’t think bussing n1k0 would make sense. Looking back at the first posts of the day, I think early pressure was building on Valenius. If Valenius is town (as I currently feel) then I feel that would have been the seemingly most obvious target for a mislynch. In other words, I don’t feel mafia would sacrifice n1k0 if they could win by only convincing one person.
If there are two mafia, I still feel they would not try to push a vote on n1k0. It seems too risky with the potential of town power roles alive, and it gives up two votes to manipulate when town appeared undecided day 1.
Thus, I do not think a mafia Valenius would start pressure on mafia n1k0.
(2) I am pretty confident there are two mafia in the game (n1k0 + one other person)
I agree with Valenius’ posts here:
On February 21 2014 16:45 Valenius wrote: Feels good to lower mafia to one. I dont believe theres any possibility of 3, theyd have played out the theory I posted.
On February 21 2014 04:46 Valenius wrote:If it gets to the end of the day and the votes stay the same; 3 mafia moving their votes to me gets me lynched. theDragoon, who I still have a town read on has his vote on me, which allows for an additional 3 votes, leading to a 4-vote majority. I die, mafia wins, gg.
I do have one thing to add to that, though. I agree with OnceKing as to my question (why didn’t n1k0 fakeclaim a town role) – I think he gave up. I feel like even if he ended up getting lynched, he may have had a better shot at surviving if he claimed a town role once momentum started to build on him. If he’s mafia he doesn’t know what roles town has, so it’s possible if he outed as a role no one would have existed to counterclaim him. I mean, it’d look really scummy when he was still alive and we’d probably kill him d3, but I feel like that would have a mafia desperation/gamble play. I bring this up here because again, it makes me think this game only has 2 mafia. With 3 mafia that move (which I see as a desperation play) might have been more realistic because swinging just one vote on n1k0 could have led to a win.
(3) I think there is probably a mafia vote among the votes for n1k0 I’m not as confident on this conclusion than my others, but I still feel pretty good about it-
N1k0 pulled five of the seven votes yesterday. Working on the belief there is only one mafia left, I don’t feel a mafia theDragoon would have think he could sway enough town to Valenius to justify keeping his vote there. Moreover, I think momentum built behind n1k0 early enough that mafia could have joined the vote for him. Although I am among the later votes on n1k0 I think looking at the later votes is worthwhile. I would summarize my reasoning as: (1) I was not confident between Valenius /nik0/Beneather and (2) I felt voting earlier took pressure off Beneather when we needed more info from him. I’m fine with being re-scrutinized d3 but if you also Beneather is high on your scumlist (as I do, see below) realize that we get so little out of him there should be some push on him earlier.
That provides some of the justification for this one:
(4) Right now Beneather is my top vote followed by theDragoon Going into day 3 my #1 scumread is Beneather.
First, I don’t think Beneather’s vote on n1k0 yesterday night makes him less scummy because it came late enough it was unlikely to swing the vote. Moreover, as noted, I feel there is probably a mafia among the n1k0 votes.
Second, both times Beneather came into the game he raised a case on Valenius. Suspecting n1k0 doesn’t strike me as bad (I felt Valenius was potentially scummy until n1k0’s flip) but here’s my problems: (1) I don’t think he adequately goes after other players. I pushed him on Tolkien d1 (d1 he said townread Tolkien but only indicated one thing by Tolkien he scumread). (2) If the scumteam is Beneather + n1k0, I think their best target to mislynch is [b]Valenius[b]. I saw those three as the candidates for today, so if that’s the team it makes sense for him to keep pushing Valenius.
Third, Beneather’s posts seem too conclusive to me. I think most of us post cases as a way to get information push it forward with new thoughts as we go (OnceKing on me, me on Cavalinho, Tolkien on OnceKing, OnceKing on Valenius, Valenius on n1k0). I see Beneather’s posts as votes with a justification. I think this is a little more scummy because they comes late in the day.
To be fair, theDragoon also voted on Valenius. theDragoon is currently my second potential scum on the grounds I don’t read him as towny as the others and keeping his vote on Valenius could reflect an attempt to push the vote onto him. I just think Beneather did so more directly and his playstyle seems wrong to me.
Like I previously mentioned, N1k0 flipping red most likely means that Valenius is town. So despite my previous read on him as scum, at this point with the information that we have, I’m confident he’s town.
Regarding N1k0: It's possible the mafia planned to bus him, this likely explains the lack of defense from N1k0 if they had agreed to do this. N1k0’s vote on Beneather can mean two things:
1) Random vote on any random player to throw us off 2) Vote on his teammate to keep as much distance from him and N1k0
It’s more likely to be the first case since the second option is risky if we don’t buy his bluff, however we still have to consider that Beneather is his teammate.
At this point I have Beneather as my top scum read. His only posts on day 2 were presenting scum reads on N1k0 and Valenius. He posted this regarding N1k0:
First off, N1k0 seems to be most likely scum as he even stated that he has just backpacked on other people's opinions, that is rather scummy as mafia will try to stay in the shadows and just follow other people's and bandwagon a townie lynch.
He calls N1k0 scum because he backpacked on other people’s opinion, yet he is doing the exact same thing in this post. Also, the rest of his post has a much larger case against Valenius. From reading it I would think he had a better scum read on Valenius than N1k0, but on his next post he says:
Oh I forgot...
##Vote n1k0
As for my town reads I’m very confident that OnceKing and Valenius are town because OnceKing put up the case that pretty much got N1k0 and Valenius got the ball rolling on N1k0's lynch.
I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right.
On February 20 2014 12:54 Lord Tolkien wrote: I would like Beneather to contribute NOW, and I will bring up a case against you, even if only to pressure.
You shouldn't ever say that you are "voting to pressure" or "building a case for pressure" because that defeats the purpose of it (they know that you don't really think they're scum, so they're not threatened by it, so there's no pressure).
Fair.
Third, Beneather’s posts seem too conclusive to me. I think most of us post cases as a way to get information push it forward with new thoughts as we go (OnceKing on me, me on Cavalinho, Tolkien on OnceKing, OnceKing on Valenius, Valenius on n1k0). I see Beneather’s posts as votes with a justification. I think this is a little more scummy because they comes late in the day.
Minor correction: OnceKing stated the N1K0 case, and I started the Valenius case Day 2 (I also decided to point out N1K0 as a possible open case). Valenius started the first vote on N1K0, but the crux of the case was made by OnceKing.
Now specifically on the reads:
1) OnceKing took up the case on N1K0 which I deliberately left open (had no one else raised it, I would've done so later), to see who took it up. I'm at this point 100% confident he's town.
2) Similarly, N1K0's red flip rules out Valenius, who's responses Day 2 acquitted himself well enough in my eyes, and doubled up on this with his early vote against N1K0, when implicating Beneather would be easier (and not point suspicions at N1K0). There are discrepancies in the details at times of his defense (which I have already pointed out), but mostly minor and nothing gaping. He's reading solidly town to me.
3) Reviewing Amiko's filter, I'd put him under scrutiny Day 3. His filter Day 2 reads non-committal and unhelpful, most of it rehashed points made by others before. The only worthwhile and original contribution made Day 2 was the vote analysis, which given the direction Day 2 took after I directed focus onto lurkers, was irrelevant. Now, he did voice his unease with N1K0 during the night phase, but didn't press it and instead wavered on N1K0 for awhile (was among the last to vote along with Beneather, just a ~1hr difference). Out of myself, OnceKing, and Amiko, Amiko currently reads the scummiest.
4) theDragoon's filter Day 2 also reads questionably with N1K0's flip taken into context. The post he voted on Valenius, he had a soft-defense of N1K0, ultimately wavering with a ambiguous read on him.
That being said, he made this post:
If N1k0 gets lynched today and flips red this makes Valenius more likely to be town because he is the first player on day 2 to vote N1k0. There’s no way a mafia Valenius would initiate the lynch on his teammate who has already gotten suspicions from everyone. If Valenius is mafia, then his vote would be cast later after he sees N1k0’s situation unsalvageable. But if N1k0 flips green, then Valenius is definitely the best lynch target on day 3.
Which is solid analysis of their likely relationship, and very relevant in either scenario, and thus gives a town read to me.
5) Beneather has 1 post Day 2, which was pretty much...useless, in all honesty. It tries to paint Valenius as likely scum after N1K0, and all that. I mean, I can't say much else about it. It just reads scummy to me.
The three players who should be put under scrutiny Day 3, depending on Night Kills and actions, would be Amiko, theDragoon, and Beneather for possible scum. In order, I would currently lynch:
1) Beneather 2) Amiko 3) theDragoon
I would currently advocate being ready to claim blue roles Day 3 (at worst, Day 4), and for Vigi (if we have one) to shoot either tonight or Day 4 night.
I mean, unless I actually hear something substantive from him, it's [le]terally the easiest vote to make.
There's no reason for him to be so quiet, especially with the flip. In the event he's town, it still removes an idle town member, and paves the way for the end-game.
I think it goes without saying at this point.. if there's a cop out there, and you have any checks on any of the alive players.. you come out. If today's as 'active' as yesterday, but with the omission of OK.. yeah. boring.
Down to lynch Beneather as well. It's really annoying how he only posts enough to not get modkilled. If he somehow flips green I think the lynch would still be worth it given he hasn't helped us at all.
##Vote Beneather
Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2.
Working under the 2 mafia game assumption- 4 town vs. 1 mafia. Even if we mislynch Beneather, we should have 2 town vs 1 mafia tomorrow.
On February 22 2014 11:51 Lord Tolkien wrote: I would currently advocate being ready to claim blue roles Day 3 (at worst, Day 4), and for Vigi (if we have one) to shoot either tonight or Day 4 night.
Here's what I think re claims, tell me if you agree: If cop has a red check, they should claim. If the mafia counterclaims, we lynch both players and win. If cop has green checks then I'll leave it to him to decide how to play it since there might be a godfather.
On February 22 2014 12:21 theDragoon wrote: Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2.
Typically they can't.
If 2 town mislynch with 1 mafia remaining, then 1 town 1 mafia go into the night. If the last town is a vigi, the mafia and town shoot each other, do both sides win? (Obviously this isn't a situation to aim for, I thought of that seems funny given the win conditions in the first post)
On February 22 2014 11:51 Lord Tolkien wrote: Minor correction: OnceKing stated the N1K0 case, and I started the Valenius case Day 2 (I also decided to point out N1K0 as a possible open case). Valenius started the first vote on N1K0, but the crux of the case was made by OnceKing.
Yeah sorry I sometimes get you and OnceKing confused sometimes because you are a Lord and he is a King :3
Just to be clear, I agree OnceKing brought a focused case but to me that's irrelevant to why Valenius is town - I think if he was mafia he would not have put up his post attacking n1k0 here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20833101) where he names him as his top read and would not have put his vote on n1k0. If he was mafia I think he would have followed the path of discussion of OnceKing discussing theDragoon.
I can understand suspicion on me given my day 2 play. I didn't feel as strongly on n1k0 as you guys did and went back and forth between the three potential votes. I'll be around tomorrow morning but out tomorrow afternoon to evening so my responses may be a little later. There's a long time until the night, though. Since I feel the most-town people aren't very contentious, maybe theDragoon and I should try to make a case on each other in case Beneather flips town?
On February 22 2014 13:20 Amiko wrote: If 2 town mislynch with 1 mafia remaining, then 1 town 1 mafia go into the night. If the last town is a vigi, the mafia and town shoot each other, do both sides win?
On February 23 2014 03:32 Valenius wrote: Looking back through his profile, Beneather seems to have been modkilled in most of the games he's played due to inactivity. sigh.
It sucks for town. Can't get a good read on him and our only option is to lynch him anyways.
Since I feel the most-town people aren't very contentious, maybe theDragoon and I should try to make a case on each other in case Beneather flips town?
Go ahead. I've spent the last two hours looking through filters to try and find scum reads.. coming up with very little.
Probably putting too much time into this game considering how it's gone~
We're so close to winning I haven't really put effort into finding scum for the slim chance Beneather flips green. Half of day 3 has passed and he hasn't said anything so I assume we got him and the game's pretty much over.
If Beneather turns up Blue/Green, I'm going to be pissed. His other games he seems to just randomly go afk and never post again, and those were a mix of blue/green games.
Cycle ends in about 2 hours, I'm going to hold off on posting anything too substantive because if the game is over it'll save me from making conclusions that may be wrong :3 If we go into night then I will try to make a case. I saw theDragoon has another game here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723) so maybe I can draw something off of that.
On February 22 2014 12:21 Valenius wrote: oh, and are you guys planning on joining in on the next newbie game? I think I will, it's been good fun.
(If any of you dare try to pull me up for not only speaking about this game..)
I'm not sure, but I probably won't ^^; I do kind of want to try a larger setup though so maybe if there is one I will try that.
Two quick points 1) There’s gotta be one mafia left. 2) All the town deaths but OnceKing have been vanilla town, so we probably still have a cop. Cases I would encourage people to try to hold reads close to the chest tonight – if we go into day 4, it’ll be 1 mafia vs 2 town, so we want to avoid letting mafia manipulate votes. During night I would still encourage people to try to make cases and challenge play. My general goal for tonight will be to try to draw out a lot of scummy things on people so we can talk about them tomorrow. If I draw a case on everyone, then who knows where my vote will end up
theDragoon
Day 1: Voting for a blue? theDragoon’s day one play appears a little unusual, but is largely explainable if you consider him to be mafia. During this part of the analysis, keep in mind that theDragoon’s vote day one was on Lord Tolkien.
In this post he discusses Tolkien as a potential vote (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=8#156). There’s a few weird things about this post, but this stands out as scummy when discussing Lord Tolkien
On February 17 2014 15:37 theDragoon wrote: He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet.
Here, theDragoon is suggesting that we lynch someone who is softclaiming a blue role. If Tolkien was lynched d1 and flipped as a blue role, how would that information have helped town? This is such a weird suggestion it really throws me (and I feel bad for not criticizing it before).
In case you thought theDragoon might just be scumhunting with a weird vote proposal, it’s clear he is serious about Tolkien here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257), where he casts his vote. He ultimately sets his vote on Lord Tolkien on the grounds that Tolkien references the mafia QT. I would classify the basis for his vote on Tolkien as scummy at worst, and very weak at best.
saving a mafia At the end of day 1, I did some notes on who could have saved Cavalinho. While I’ll grant that theDragoon’s vote is somewhat consistent I’ll point this out: theDragoon hesitated to name n1k0 scummy, but later implied that n1k0 was his second scumread. He named Cavalinho as towny. Nonetheless, he did not move his vote from Tolkien (who he voted on with a very weak justification) to n1k0, who we know to be scum. The confusing votes from theDragoon make much more sense when you realize he is trying to avoid lynching his mafia teammate n1k0.
Moving into day 2
Short Memory / Following the Scum? Day 2 theDragoon seems to forget his reads day 1. Although Tolkien was his top scum read, he starts day 2 by following the path Lord Tolkien sets before him here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297) and follows them through the day.
The Choice Not Taken Something to note as we look to day 2 is theDragoon’s reads on n1k0. Basically, theDragoon continues to mention n1k0 as a potential scumread, someone who could be voted for another day. theDragoon basically argues that he now wants to lynch Valenius – if Valenius is green, then we should vote n1k0 later. However, for some reason he resists the opposite order, which would likely accomplish the same result, because of pride (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20848746). This explanation strikes me as weird – for one, it’s not using any logic/knowledge/reads, so it’s a weird justification to begin with. Second, it seems to me that the pride-saving move is to bandwagon– then if you are wrong, you are wrong with everyone else.
A Decent Argument theDragoon’s reads on n1k0 also seem unusual. In this post, theDragoon says that n1k0 made a decent argument for n1k0’s vote on Cavalinho. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297). Go to this post and search for anything prior to it mentioning n1k0. You will find theDragoon’s post suggesting he sees contradictions in n1k0’s posts (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821516). You will find the posts I mentioned earlier where theDragoon says he reads n1k0 as slight scum. You’ll only find one argument from n1k0 for his vote on Cavalinho here. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=12#234) But, theDragoon specifically calls this post out as giving him a scum vibe (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257) . What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy .
OnceKing I previously questioned why OnceKing wasn’t killed night 1 when he established himself as a strong town leader. I remember thinking that maybe mafia was trying to avoid hitting the targert of a medic save. But, note that here, OnceKing names theDragoon as a “definitely town” (ok to be fair he names me too) – this may explain why mafia did not target him for the n1 kill.
Another possibility is that mafia (somehow?) didn’t notice OnceKing’s town presence day 1. At first this might sound silly because to me, OnceKing was firmly establishing himself as a town leader day 1. But, note this post:
On February 22 2014 12:21 theDragoon wrote: Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2.
This suggests that theDragoon only noticed OnceKing's town play on day 2. We know he noticed after his scumpartner n1k0 was lynched,
On February 21 2014 12:49 theDragoon wrote: This feels so good, my last mafia game we had no successful lynches so it puts a huge smile on my face seeing that red text show up. OnceKing you are the MVP for this one.
and OnceKing is killed that night. If you look through his filter, you'll also see theDragoon doesn’t discuss OnceKing’s towniness as much as most other players. --
That’s all I can contribute for now. It was written in a pretty long sitting so hopefully it's kind of coherent. I had fun with the little section titles at the end, lol.
I do want to be clear on this post (and it’ll be the same for Tolkien when I pull one together) – I decided before I started the goal was to make a case on theDragoon. Working through this has made me review a lot of posts and I think I’ve come away with some reads that I didn’t have before (unrelated to theDragoon) so I would encourage you guys to try too :D we are going into a bona-fide 3 player standoff which is probably the coolest way a mafia game can end.
As usual I'll be working tomorrow morning, if I have time in the afternoon I'll write up some notes on Tolkien or Valenius
Oh also I looked through theDragoon's other game and I didn't feel like I could pull anything meaningful, but if someone else sees something please do bring it up!
Really disappointed Beneather didn't flip red. I got a bit excited when I went to check the results because I thought this was going to be my first forum mafia win. The final day sounds like it's going to be a 2v1 hopefully I get to be a part of it.
@Amiko I want to convince you that you are wrong because if I don't die at night and you guys get a mislynch on me, we will lose. This post will be me explaining myself based on the points you made, so I will be using the same titles you used.
Day1: Voting for a blue The quote you put on their is entirely out of context. Here is the entire post:
theDragoon & Valenius: I'm not sure. They have contributed a little but I don't have a read yet. I would like to ask both, if you were to pick someone other than me to lynch, who would you pick and why? If I am lynched and flip green, what will your thoughts be on Cavalinho &
I've got my eye on Lord Tolkien at this point in time mainly because of this:
On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote: @Lord Tolkien:
Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility.
I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take?
I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot.
Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices.
The problem I have with this is the soft blue claim. He's saying that a cop or similar blue role wouldn't be active on day 1 for fear of drawing attention to themselves. Then he says if he is blue, then he'd be a Veteran. I'm not really buying the whole I'm active therefore I'm a veteran thing. I feel like any townie, green or blue should try to be active so that we can gather as much info as we can.
So by trying to suggest he is a blue, he can avoid 2 things:
1) getting lynched if people believe his suggestion, this works well if he's red 2) if mafia doesn't have a roleblocker and they believe he is a veteran then he avoids getting shot, he's basically banking on mafia not having a roleblocker.
He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet.
I was concerned at the fact that LT was basically saying that only the veteran would be active on day 1 because they feel can take a hit. What I was thinking at the time was that LT was putting fear in town from being active unless they were a veteran so that we wouldn't have as much information to gain from players posting actively. You also forgot to mention that I put myself at huge risk of being lynched if LT flipped blue and I would be instantly lynched on day 2 because of my incorrect read. If I was mafia and thought LT was a blue role and I pushed his lynch, how bad of a mafia play would that be to make on day 1? Also, about the slip regarding the mafia QT, I previously mentioned it might have been a reach on my part but it made perfect sense to me that he could have slipped up about mentioning the mafia QT, which I was never thinking of since I don't have access to it. Doesn't it make more sense for the person using the mafia QT to be the one talking about it?
saving a mafia There were several people who could have saved Cavalinho, including Cavalinho himself. At that point I don't think people were thinking of who can they save because it doesn't make any sense to try saving someone who isn't a confirmed town. Even with a strong town read on someone there is always that element of doubt that they could be scum. I also posted that I was starting to have doubts on Cav here: + Show Spoiler +
Let's say Cav and n1k0's roles were reversed and everyone had the same reads, If I had thought to save Cav because I had strong town read on him and switched to n1k0, we get a mislynch. My point being, the only reason you think this vote switch to save someone makes sense is because we now know that Cav is town.
I think you forgot to mention that I had a slight scum read on n1k0 at the exact same post I voted for Tolkien. I voted Tolkien because I had a better scum read on him than I had on n1k0 since n1k0 was lurking and there wasn't much in the way of posts to get a good read on him.
Short Memory/Following the Scum Did it ever occur to you that I changed my opinion on LT because of the way LT was posting? I may not have explicitly stated it by posting but in my personal notes I was leaning towards LT being town at that point. You can say the same about OnceKing, who we know is town, he also switched from scum LT to town LT. You're reaching really hard here for nothing.
The Choice Not Taken I think I'm repeating myself here, I voted for the guy I had a better scum read on. How is jumping the bandwagon the pride-saving move? I had a read on Valenius, which I thought was 100% correct and I wanted to be right about this. I wanted to be the only one who got it right. Given the number of votes on n1k0, I was willing to stand out away from the pack just so I can say I was right about Val (at this point I can still be right about Val). I was also willing to switch to n1k0 if the votes were close, which I explained in a previous post saying that n1k0 red flip = more likely Val is green, but not vice versa.
A Decent Argument
What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy
Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth.
I will be posting my thoughts on other players hopefully later on in the night or maybe after, if I survive. This is definitely shaping up to be a pretty epic mafia game and I hope to be a part of the final day.
theDragoon - I am glad you responded- I will try to explain what my reads are you following that post tomorrow if we are both alive.
I feel that if you are town and alive tonight, you will help tomorrow’s discussion most by raising a case. I think you should post a case on someone regardless of whether they are your most scum read. The people alive can weigh the cases and defenses tomorrow given the information they have (that they are town & potentially informed by cop checks).
Also honestly reading through someone’s posts again I noticed a lot of things I didn’t the first time through or when I re-read without purpose. For example, re-reading I noticed this one-
On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote: Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means?
Why would town ask what the result is they flip red? We should have hammered n1k0 on that I think. Anyway that doesn’t really matter as much because n1k0 is dead, but I just mention it because I noticed a few other things I will share tomorrow if I am alive and maybe you will notice some things too if you re-read to make a case.
Be back later, at least we have an exciting finish :3
(to Tolkien's post which came later) Ehh I really don't think we should post your top scumreads in the night (or at least do that in your last minute post), but since you did already I'll just say if you can make your case I'll respond to it and hopefully convince you that I am actually town.
Also honestly reading through someone’s posts again I noticed a lot of things I didn’t the first time through or when I re-read without purpose. For example, re-reading I noticed this one-
On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote: Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means?
Why would town ask what the result is they flip red? We should have hammered n1k0 on that I think.
To be fair; he was dead and buried by that point anyway, no point wasting time on making a stronger case when he was providing no (reasonable) defence. Though your overarching point on re-reading posts is valid.
Some quick thoughts on the remaining players, just in case I don't survive the night. These are just quick notes based off reading through each person's filter.
Amiko I don't like how he brings up people who could have saved Cav because that early in the game nobody is 100% certain of their reads to go out of their way to save someone, most people would rather vote on who they think is scum. I think this is just him trying implicate others.
He bandwagon'd on the vote on n1k0 in day 2 without really presenting anything against him. Also want to note his vote was late, he could have waited to see if there was a chance others would jump ship and vote on someone else. When he saw that there's no hope he bus'd n1k0 to gain town cred.
Amiko wanted to encourage talk and discussion during night so that he can have a more informed decision on who to kill.
N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town.
Valenius Unlikely to be mafia after n1k0's flip but just in case.
Him, n1k0 and Beneather were under fire start of day 2, we know Beneather is town and n1k0 is scum. If Valenius is scum, the best way for mafia to ensure one of them can be cleared is to bus the other. He agrees to bus n1k0, starts vote on him to gain massive town cred. N1k0 offers absolutely no defense since they agreed to this.
Lord Tolkien Scummiest thing he's done is the formal lynching proposal, what better way for mafia to control the game than to propose something like this?
During day 1, other players had scum reads on him because of his actions, yet n1k0 reads him town. He also kept mentioning specific roles, as if he's trying to figure out what the blue roles are and who they can be, only mafia would be interested in this on day 1.
I don't like how he casts doubt on himself being town, saying stuff like "It's possible I'm mafia". It's not that scummy but why do this? I want to believe you are town but you are putting doubt in my head.
--
I did this rather quick and I don't like quotes and links to posts where I got this info. I'll post something more detailed if I survived, I just wanted to post my thoughts examining each remaining player as mafia since at this point, it's equally likely any of the remaining players could be mafia.
If I live through the night, I'm going to laugh my ass off. I'm prime night kill territory. Either they read a player whose far more active town than I and less under suspicion (nope), or they bought the sorta soft-blue vet claim. Which was bullshit; I'm a vanilla townie. I was just gonna use it to try and dissuade night kills on me (which my day 1 scumminess was enough to do also).
If I survive the night, I'll post analysis about what the opposing kill meant. Don't have the time to write four scenarios. I'm primarily writing about what happens when I die, which can't happen Day 4.
First, if I die, ignore the night post with my reads. It was an attempt at scum-baiting. It will only be useful if I end up living into Day 4, as it would let me give a night-time read, so to speak, based on the kills.
Next, I would say that my reads list is purposefully wrong to scumbait. Valenius is who I would currently look to lynch; him or Amiko. Valenius first priority.
Why do I think Valenius is scum? Consider the Day 2 lynch. He was the first to vote for N1K0, given both of them were under suspicion then, but doesn't offer the main case. Given N1K0 didn't offer anything in defense, it makes him a free lynch. Poor mafia play, or a coordinated play by a scum Valenius and N1K0 to clear Valenius of scumminess in everyone's eyes? Now why would they do that? If one of the two needed to be lynched, the goon (non-GF mafia) should take the fall, simply to prevent the possibility of a cop check becoming relevant Day 4. And if they could use it to make Valenius seem town? Double or nothing.
Additionally, it's highly likely that N1K0 was bussed, given his complete non-defense, as OnceKing noted in his last night post.
However, instead of looking for a hesitant player (Beneather and Amiko, the former was just ugh, should've voted on someone else).
It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill.
Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself. Now, if I survive, it depends entirely on who dies, but I assume theDragoon dies over Amiko based on the false reads I was giving leading up to here. If I don't live, he can sit back and watch town try to lynch each other.
If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it.
Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0.
If I die, it could draw blame onto Amiko, but also be twisted by mafia to make it appear that Amiko is guilty. Thus, my death is unuseable for read purposes.
So yeah, I'd actually say that Amiko or Valenius is scum.
I can do a scenario where I'm scum too, but I don't have the time atm.
There’s a few things I want to bring up now and some analysis I want to hold until after you both put some starting responses.
First off, this is going to be the last day if anyone wants to claim cop please start off with that and list your checks so we can evaluate your play/checks. I have a little more to say on this in a responsive post but not right now. I am not a cop, though.
theDragoon, I felt the case I wrote against you was fairly weak. I am not decided at this point whether you or Valenius is the last mafia. My post reading Valenius as town after the n1k0 lynch was honest and I felt he was a reliable town. However, when I was making a case for you I noted that you had a similar conclusion here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20838473) so I was concerned that a mafia Valenius would leave the two of us alive because we both indicated we read him as town. Tolkien also gave Valenius a town read in this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#368). The only thing I can really distinguish on this point is that you and I both indicated we were still somewhat solid on our reads of Valenius – I did here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20849478) and you did here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20864161). Tolkien didn’t really comment on it afterwards that I can see until his pre-death post. Based on that, my feeling coming into today was that if Valenius was mafia, he would probably not kill one of us; based off that read, I felt that if you died my read on Valenius as town was more likely to be correct - if he was mafia it would be very unlikely he would kill one the two people who had so recently named him town. That said, Tolkien was the target for tonight. Although I had some concerns about Valenius, I was pretty surprised to see Tolkien finger him as a first priority lynch in that last post.
On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote: Next, I would say that my reads list is purposefully wrong to scumbait. Valenius is who I would currently look to lynch; him or Amiko. Valenius first priority.
Why do I think Valenius is scum? Consider the Day 2 lynch. He was the first to vote for N1K0, given both of them were under suspicion then, but doesn't offer the main case. Given N1K0 didn't offer anything in defense, it makes him a free lynch. Poor mafia play, or a coordinated play by a scum Valenius and N1K0 to clear Valenius of scumminess in everyone's eyes? Now why would they do that? If one of the two needed to be lynched, the goon (non-GF mafia) should take the fall, simply to prevent the possibility of a cop check becoming relevant Day 4. And if they could use it to make Valenius seem town? Double or nothing.
I’ll go through your response to my case also.
On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: I was concerned at the fact that LT was basically saying that only the veteran would be active on day 1 because they feel can take a hit. What I was thinking at the time was that LT was putting fear in town from being active unless they were a veteran so that we wouldn't have as much information to gain from players posting actively. You also forgot to mention that I put myself at huge risk of being lynched if LT flipped blue and I would be instantly lynched on day 2 because of my incorrect read. If I was mafia and thought LT was a blue role and I pushed his lynch, how bad of a mafia play would that be to make on day 1?
This is one of the points I raised on you that I did feel was legitimately scummy. I wasn’t sure what Tolkien’s role was, but I didn’t feel comfortable voting for someone who hinted at being a blue role, even if he was voting for OnceKing who I named as towny. I absolutely agree your point that it would be a bad mafia play on your part because you’d expect to get negative attention day 2. For what it’s worth, by the same logic, if n1k0 and I were a scumteam, having both mafia players vote on the same person day 1 (who, if we were mafia, might even flip blue!) seems like an even worse play to me.
On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: Also, about the slip regarding the mafia QT, I previously mentioned it might have been a reach on my part but it made perfect sense to me that he could have slipped up about mentioning the mafia QT, which I was never thinking of since I don't have access to it. Doesn't it make more sense for the person using the mafia QT to be the one talking about it?
I can follow this logic, I just felt like it was a weaker justification than votes on other people.
I also raised the Cavalinho vote issue- I agree with your points on that. I felt like this was a weak read (I even noted the Cavalinho thing myself), but it was something to push you on.
On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: A Decent Argument
What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy
Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth.
Sorry, I am confused by your response to this one, maybe I misunderstood what you meant in the earlier post or in this one. Which post by n1k0 were you saying was a decent argument?
In sum, theDragoon, we came into day 4 having indicated that we townread Valenius. At some point in this day we are going to have to start voting. If we cross voted I don’t know who Valenius would pick. But, if he is mafia and we are both town, we need to make sure that we are as sure as we can be that we can trust him to make the right choice.
My plan for tomorrow is to try to re-examine Valenius and see what reads I can get out of him and not let my read hang entirely on the n1k0 vote. I also need to give Tolkien’s post a closer look.
I would welcome your comments, but here are the general questions I’d like you to respond to when you get time, I have some points to raise on them: @theDragoon – do you think the kills are more consistent with me as mafia or Valenius as mafia? @Valenius – do you think the kills are more consistent with me as mafia or theDragoon as mafia? @Valenius – I think you owe us a fairly extensive post. I don’t even mind if it’s a case on me, I think your last few posts have been mostly lamenting inactivity without doing anything to encourage activity. Give us something meaty (this sentence was made to compete with Tolkien’s no context quote of the day) @Valenius @theDragoon: How confident were you for your votes d2 at the time you made them?
I'm super sleepy now x.x but I'll try to be extra attentive to the thread tomorrow since it's exciting lylo times.
LT and I both have the same theory regarding Valenius. When I wrote my pre-day 4 post I thought I was being a bit paranoid about Valenius. After the n1k0 flip, I really thought that Valenius was town but now everything is adding up to Valenius being mafia. Initiating the vote on his teammate is the best way to clear his name and it worked. After n1k0's flip all the remaining players had a town read on Valenius, despite him being scrutinized pre-n1k0 flip for being scum.
I wanted to look at the night kills to see if there was some sort of trend. Night 1: IAmRobik Night 2: OnceKing Night 3: Lord Tolkien
IAmRobik On day 1 his top 3 scum, in order were: N1k0, Lord Tolkien and Valenius. He also voted for n1k0. If Valenius is mafia, then that's 2 guys in his top 3, which might have led mafia to think that he was on to them. Another thing to note is that Valenius voted for him on day 1.
OnceKing He had the case that got n1k0, there's no question about it. He was the obvious target for a mafia kill because he got n1k0. This could be revenge for n1k0 or mafia was concerned that OnceKing might catch both of them. There's a bit of a trend going on now, both mafia kill targets were onto n1k0, with OnceKing being successful in leading a n1k0 lynch. The mafia are targeting people who are on to them.
Lord Tolkien He had a case on Valenius at the start of day 2 but voted for n1k0 after OnceKing's post. After that though he said his top 2 scum were me and Beneather. After Beneather's lynch/modkill he posted this:
On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote: I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum.
I'll make a last minute expansion post, but that's the gist of it.
Lynch Amiko and win guys.
If we're still following the trend where mafia are targeting people who are on to them, then this post could tell us who the last mafia is. That points to Amiko.
In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia.
As of now I'm undecided on who to vote for, but I'm leaning towards Valenius because he was my strongest scum read on day 2 (pre-n1k0 flip) and I'd be really pissed if he doesn't get lynched and turns out to be mafia.
@Valenius @theDragoon: How confident were you for your votes d2 at the time you made them?
When I voted for Valenius, OnceKing had yet to post his case on n1k0 and at the time all the cases on n1k0 were rather weak compared to the ones for Valenius. So I was fairly confident I was right, I only started having doubts after I read OnceKing's post and by the time I read it the majority of the votes were on n1k0.
Now is the time to get the lynch right on Valenius. I DO NOT want to lose to a mafia who completely played us all in day 2. I'll be so pissed that he gets away because we instantly label him town as soon as n1k0 flipped red. It would mean he completely outplayed us all and I'm not gonna let myself be outplayed when there's a chance right now to put him down.
Dragoon; as much as it sucks to be played, don't let that influence your decision. Make it based on true reads, not based on how you'd feel after the game. I'd be pissed at you (or amiko) if you made your choice based on that.
On February 24 2014 15:19 Amiko wrote: Two quick points 1) There’s gotta be one mafia left. 2) All the town deaths but OnceKing have been vanilla town, so we probably still have a cop.
Last night when I read this, I viewed it as a soft claim. If it was (you've since kinda proved it isn't), I could understand the post. It isn't, so it stands out as weird logic to me. There were 6 possible blue roles, of which we've lost one (OnceKing, Doctor). It makes no sense to think that its probable that one of the two remaining town players got picked as cop. I could understand if you'd have said "There's a chance", but probable? No. Could just be weird logic, not necessarily calling it a scummy play.. just wrong. As for your first point, lol.
Cases I would encourage people to try to hold reads close to the chest tonight – if we go into day 4, it’ll be 1 mafia vs 2 town, so we want to avoid letting mafia manipulate votes. During night I would still encourage people to try to make cases and challenge play. My general goal for tonight will be to try to draw out a lot of scummy things on people so we can talk about them tomorrow. If I draw a case on everyone, then who knows where my vote will end up
Yeah, that's a reasonable play. However, again it does strike me as a bit scummy that you said you'd only put a case on everyone so your vote is unknown, then later on (bottom of post) say you'll only draw up the other cases if you have time. I can understand time constraints (Timezone+Work where I cant post), but following your logic you shouldn't have put any cases up unless you were certain of time, or you had them all ready to go. Your cases, despite trying to hide reads will still give some indication on how you're feeling towards people.
theDragoon
Day 1: Voting for a blue? theDragoon’s day one play appears a little unusual, but is largely explainable if you consider him to be mafia. During this part of the analysis, keep in mind that theDragoon’s vote day one was on Lord Tolkien.
In this post he discusses Tolkien as a potential vote (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=8#156). There’s a few weird things about this post, but this stands out as scummy when discussing Lord Tolkien
On February 17 2014 15:37 theDragoon wrote: He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet.
Here, theDragoon is suggesting that we lynch someone who is softclaiming a blue role. If Tolkien was lynched d1 and flipped as a blue role, how would that information have helped town? This is such a weird suggestion it really throws me (and I feel bad for not criticizing it before).
Yep, pretty much agree. I can understand his earlier reasoning, about it being lynch-protection, but the last line.. yeah: It's a bad play.
In case you thought theDragoon might just be scumhunting with a weird vote proposal, it’s clear he is serious about Tolkien here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257), where he casts his vote. He ultimately sets his vote on Lord Tolkien on the grounds that Tolkien references the mafia QT. I would classify the basis for his vote on Tolkien as scummy at worst, and very weak at best.
Moving into day 2
Short Memory / Following the Scum? Day 2 theDragoon seems to forget his reads day 1. Although Tolkien was his top scum read, he starts day 2 by following the path Lord Tolkien sets before him here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297) and follows them through the day.
I'd disagree with your read of this post, but I still viw it as kinda scummy. To me, it seems to be him assessing the options. However, to base it off Beneather's post (you all know my thoughts on his posts) is stupid. His comment that n1k0 makes a decent argument for voting Cav is pretty flawed in my opinion. That post by n1k0 was one of the one's I picked on during my voting post on him.
I don't think playing defensively means you're scum (see Cav/Me Day 1), it's just your mindset. Commenting on what good can come out of your own lynch (with regards to tolkien), I firmly disagree with, as i've stated several times to Tolkien.
Lastly, The read on that I'd be paired with Beneather, based on his vote on me. His vote was pretty much nonsensical, considering it was based on him saying i've not contributed.. despite him not actually having any sort of post that adds any value whatsoever. Beneather never had a solid case on me day 1, that's why I didn't respond.
The Choice Not Taken Something to note as we look to day 2 is theDragoon’s reads on n1k0. Basically, theDragoon continues to mention n1k0 as a potential scumread, someone who could be voted for another day. theDragoon basically argues that he now wants to lynch Valenius – if Valenius is green, then we should vote n1k0 later. However, for some reason he resists the opposite order, which would likely accomplish the same result, because of pride (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20848746). This explanation strikes me as weird – for one, it’s not using any logic/knowledge/reads, so it’s a weird justification to begin with. Second, it seems to me that the pride-saving move is to bandwagon– then if you are wrong, you are wrong with everyone else.
It's an odd one for me. I gave theDragoon an exceptionally easy switch of vote on to n1k0, yet he didn't take it. I provided a situation in which him switching his vote would draw almost no suspicion. Instead, he kept it on me. At that point, n1k0 was a sure lynch.
I honestly can't tell right now if this is an incredibly scummy desperation play, or whether it's incredibly townie play. The desperation play would explain itself, but the incredibly townie play is not taking the easy switch and staying with your read. Really, it's a circular logic.. is he bluffing, is he not bluffing? I'm not going to focus on that much more for now, it'll annoy me too much.
A Decent Argument theDragoon’s reads on n1k0 also seem unusual. In this post, theDragoon says that n1k0 made a decent argument for n1k0’s vote on Cavalinho. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297). Go to this post and search for anything prior to it mentioning n1k0. You will find theDragoon’s post suggesting he sees contradictions in n1k0’s posts (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821516). You will find the posts I mentioned earlier where theDragoon says he reads n1k0 as slight scum. You’ll only find one argument from n1k0 for his vote on Cavalinho here. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=12#234) But, theDragoon specifically calls this post out as giving him a scum vibe (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257) . What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy .
Yup, pretty much the conclusion i drew above.
OnceKing I previously questioned why OnceKing wasn’t killed night 1 when he established himself as a strong town leader. I remember thinking that maybe mafia was trying to avoid hitting the targert of a medic save. But, note that here, OnceKing names theDragoon as a “definitely town” (ok to be fair he names me too) – this may explain why mafia did not target him for the n1 kill.
Another possibility is that mafia (somehow?) didn’t notice OnceKing’s town presence day 1. At first this might sound silly because to me, OnceKing was firmly establishing himself as a town leader day 1. But, note this post:
On February 21 2014 12:49 theDragoon wrote: This feels so good, my last mafia game we had no successful lynches so it puts a huge smile on my face seeing that red text show up. OnceKing you are the MVP for this one.
and OnceKing is killed that night. If you look through his filter, you'll also see theDragoon doesn’t discuss OnceKing’s towniness as much as most other players.
Past night 1, OnceKing's towniness was never really in question. it was reasonably obvious based on his posting that he was town. Based on his day 1, I'd say Once was going to be the target of a medic save if we had one (that wasn't himself). That'd explain the lack of kill attempt on him, and instead the kill on Robik (Sort of middle of the road between town/mafia based on the average consensus)
NEXT POST ~ THAT ONLY TOOK 45 MINS,oh god, this is my whole evening isn't it.
Tolkien
Your post before the lynch (~7 hours before) was so obviously bait of some sort. Dude.
On February 25 2014 11:57 theDragoon wrote: Some quick thoughts on the remaining players, just in case I don't survive the night. These are just quick notes based off reading through each person's filter.
Amiko I don't like how he brings up people who could have saved Cav because that early in the game nobody is 100% certain of their reads to go out of their way to save someone, most people would rather vote on who they think is scum. I think this is just him trying implicate others.
I agree with this, it's similar to my reasoning for not switching from Robik. My scumread was stronger than my townread, and swapping to any of the others was pure guesswork.
He bandwagon'd on the vote on n1k0 in day 2 without really presenting anything against him. Also want to note his vote was late, he could have waited to see if there was a chance others would jump ship and vote on someone else. When he saw that there's no hope he bus'd n1k0 to gain town cred.
Looking back, "I still feel it’s very tough to pick between n1k0, Beneather, and Valenius. I have been hoping that one of the three would put up something that swayed me one way or another but it hasn’t happened." was posted by Amiko well after both OnceKing and I had made our cases on n1k0. Once's argument seemed to be enough to sway everyone else on to n1k0, so this hesitation is kind of scummy to me.
Amiko wanted to encourage talk and discussion during night so that he can have a more informed decision on who to kill.
Can be scummy/townie, depending on how you look at it. I don't personally think night discussions are bad.
N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town.
Yeah.. lol. This was either a major slip by n1k0 (a possibility given his overall play), or just trying to be townie. I'm leaning towards the former.
Valenius Unlikely to be mafia after n1k0's flip but just in case.
Him, n1k0 and Beneather were under fire start of day 2, we know Beneather is town and n1k0 is scum. If Valenius is scum, the best way for mafia to ensure one of them can be cleared is to bus the other. He agrees to bus n1k0, starts vote on him to gain massive town cred. N1k0 offers absolutely no defense since they agreed to this.
I'm suprised the "Valenius bussed his teammate" argument hasn't really been brought up before now. Everyone was saying n1k0's red flip means im green. Obviously i'm fine with that, it means I have to spend less time defending myself and can have more time to review previous posts for reads.
However, given my day 1 play.. which.. let's be honest wasn't particularly great (See: Misread on robik).. I would have had no where near enough confidence to try and take on the remaining days alone. If I were mafia, I'd not bus my teammate 18-hours into a 48-hour cycle, especially when only minor pressure had been brought on him at that point.
The easy play there is to go for Beneather, and when he turns up green blame it on lack of solid reads due to his inactivity. That's a play i'd take all the time. (Note: My later read on beneather was based on his posts, not just activity).
Tolkiens pre-death post..
On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote: Alright, to present my thoughts for tonight.
If I live through the night, I'm going to laugh my ass off. I'm prime night kill territory. Either they read a player whose far more active town than I and less under suspicion (nope), or they bought the sorta soft-blue vet claim. Which was bullshit; I'm a vanilla townie. I was just gonna use it to try and dissuade night kills on me (which my day 1 scumminess was enough to do also).
Yep, I don't disagree. Leaving myself, amiko and dragoon who are all reasonably suspicious alive is a higher % play for mafia. If you were alive, literally my whole day was going to be trying to figure out why.
First, if I die, ignore the night post with my reads. It was an attempt at scum-baiting. It will only be useful if I end up living into Day 4, as it would let me give a night-time read, so to speak, based on the kills.
Done.
Why do I think Valenius is scum? Consider the Day 2 lynch. He was the first to vote for N1K0, given both of them were under suspicion then, but doesn't offer the main case. Given N1K0 didn't offer anything in defense, it makes him a free lynch. Poor mafia play, or a coordinated play by a scum Valenius and N1K0 to clear Valenius of scumminess in everyone's eyes? Now why would they do that? If one of the two needed to be lynched, the goon (non-GF mafia) should take the fall, simply to prevent the possibility of a cop check becoming relevant Day 4. And if they could use it to make Valenius seem town? Double or nothing.
I mentioned this above, however i'll try and expand on some of your specifics. In my mind, my case on n1k0 was pretty solid. Not 100%, but I had a 75% mafia feeling on him. The subsequent argument between myself and n1k0 only helped to confirm my read. I've mentioned before how I disagree with any post saying Beneather contributed more than I did day 1. Once then came in and posted his more eloquent views on n1k0, which helped sway some other votes (ty once, saved probably a lot of debating that day). As I mentioned above, I'm suprised it took anyone this long to really mention that voting n1k0 doesn't make me automatically town. In my mind, that doesn't clear anyone in that situation of being mafia.
Additionally, it's highly likely that N1K0 was bussed, given his complete non-defense, as OnceKing noted in his last night post.
Again, I disagree. I think he just fell apart. He didn't have a good enough response to any of the arguments thrown by me to start with, never mind the summary by OnceKing.
It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill.
Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself.
As I've mentioned above.. my day 1 play was a bit shaky. I'm the only one who drew any sort of case (in my eyes, I realise others don't necessarily see it as one) on Robik, so to scum-kill him when i've made that case (that no one else agrees with) would be more pressure than I'd feel comfortable taking.
If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it.
If i'm reading this correctly, it's pretty much what my view is on dragoon's vote. It still could be a masterful play in that it's so blatantly obvious to stay on me, that it hides itself. Fuck, not touching this reasoning again.
Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0.
Both scum voting for the same lynch on d1 does seem like an over-commitment, but it's those sort of plays that sometimes need to be made. The later votes on n1k0 (Tolkien/Amiko/Beneather) were ones I felt uneasy about. Solid cases had been made on him, so keeping the vote off doesn't serve much purpose. It puts more pressure on him to put up a good defense, which we can learn more from. (Okay, he crumbled in this case, but you'd expect a better defence).
So yeah, I'd actually say that Amiko or Valenius is scum.
I've listed Amiko in my scum reads so far all game, however he's been sort of at the edge, less so than other reads (Robik/n1k0).
theDragoon's been in my town list since the start of day 2, along with Once. This is despite him slightly-scum reading me, and voting on me. His reads were.. somewhat understandable based on my day 1 play. If I were mafia, i'd be trying to clear myself of those suspicions on me.
I think i've provided more meat than you can handle, amiko. I tried my best, so sorry :p
NEXT POST ~food soon plz
Amiko, you've asked a couple of questions so here gooooooooooooos.
I would welcome your comments, but here are the general questions I’d like you to respond to when you get time, I have some points to raise on them:
@Valenius – do you think the kills are more consistent with me as mafia or theDragoon as mafia?
Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon.
The kill could also have been pushed by n1k0 though, it's not a 1 man team? (n1k0 listed as most scummy by robik.. maybe killing and hoping nobody really picks up on his list?)
@Valenius – I think you owe us a fairly extensive post. I don’t even mind if it’s a case on me, I think your last few posts have been mostly lamenting inactivity without doing anything to encourage activity. Give us something meaty (this sentence was made to compete with Tolkien’s no context quote of the day)
Done.
@Valenius: How confident were you for your votes d2 at the time you made them?
As i've stated earlier, probably around 75% raising up to 100% after the following argument with n1k0.
NEXXXXXXXXT
LT and I both have the same theory regarding Valenius. When I wrote my pre-day 4 post I thought I was being a bit paranoid about Valenius. After the n1k0 flip, I really thought that Valenius was town but now everything is adding up to Valenius being mafia. Initiating the vote on his teammate is the best way to clear his name and it worked. After n1k0's flip all the remaining players had a town read on Valenius, despite him being scrutinized pre-n1k0 flip for being scum.
I wanted to look at the night kills to see if there was some sort of trend. Night 1: IAmRobik Night 2: OnceKing Night 3: Lord Tolkien
IAmRobik On day 1 his top 3 scum, in order were: N1k0, Lord Tolkien and Valenius. He also voted for n1k0. If Valenius is mafia, then that's 2 guys in his top 3, which might have led mafia to think that he was on to them. Another thing to note is that Valenius voted for him on day 1.
Come on, i've discussed my vote on him countless times over the last few days. Lord Tolkien agreed that my explanation for it was reasonable from my point of view, and that my reasoning for not switching had logic to it.
"Initiating the vote on his teammate is the best way to clear his name and it worked." - It clearly didn't, please stop trying to portray me as if i was 100% town yesterday. Someone should've picked up that possibility of bussing yesterday (mentioned higher up zz) instead of giving me a free-ish pass.
OnceKing He had the case that got n1k0, there's no question about it. He was the obvious target for a mafia kill because he got n1k0. This could be revenge for n1k0 or mafia was concerned that OnceKing might catch both of them. There's a bit of a trend going on now, both mafia kill targets were onto n1k0, with OnceKing being successful in leading a n1k0 lynch. The mafia are targeting people who are on to them.
Am I alone in thinking that my case and subsequent posts on n1k0 were a good case too? Despite being the first to really go on him, i've got very little credit (apart from the flip-reads) on the n1k0 kill.
Lord Tolkien He had a case on Valenius at the start of day 2 but voted for n1k0 after OnceKing's post. After that though he said his top 2 scum were me and Beneather. After Beneather's lynch/modkill he posted this: On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote: I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum.
I'll make a last minute expansion post, but that's the gist of it.
Lynch Amiko and win guys.
If we're still following the trend where mafia are targeting people who are on to them, then this post could tell us who the last mafia is. That points to Amiko.
I'm not sure if Amiko would be stupid enough to go for that, although it could be purely coincidence. As i stated right at the top, LT was the obvious obvious kill choice for last night.
In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia.
In that case, I should probably be dead. Amiko's been in my scum reads each time so far.
As of now I'm undecided on who to vote for, but I'm leaning towards Valenius because he was my strongest scum read on day 2 (pre-n1k0 flip) and I'd be really pissed if he doesn't get lynched and turns out to be mafia.
Read my above post, don't be mis-guided by thinking how you'd feel after the game. -.-
In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia.
In that case, I should probably be dead. Amiko's been in my scum reads each time so far.
Fair enough, but the difference I see between you putting Amiko in your scum reads and the other night kills were that they voted for the scum (n1k0), except LT. Also, during day 1, Amiko had three people vote for him, who later switched their votes for the final count. Of the three people who voted Amiko, two were night killed and one was lynched on day 1. There's no denying there's a trend in the night kills, what we have to determine is if it leads to the right direction.
In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia.
In that case, I should probably be dead. Amiko's been in my scum reads each time so far.
Of the three people who voted Amiko, two were night killed and one was lynched on day 1. There's no denying there's a trend in the night kills, what we have to determine is if it leads to the right direction.
Valid point.
Amiko, at the moment you're where my vote is going. Sleep time now for me. I'll try take a lunch break tomorrow to review any overnight (from my perspective) posts.
I started a post but I didn’t get through nearly as much as I was hoping. More coming once I’m home, but here’s a few things I can post to keep discussion going.
Tolkien’s Scumbait Post
On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote: I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum.
I guess I figured there was a chance Tolkien’s night post was mafia bait given his phrasing - if Tolkien thought I was “definitely scum” then there’s no way he could see theDragoon as “maybe scum” (because there’s just one mafia left). The important post to me is Tolkien’s second so we’ll get to that.
My Discussion of Cops This is something I didn’t want to address in my first post because of the possibility one of you two would claim cop but I’m fine with raising it now.
Valenius mentions my reference to the cop here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20869986). My posts re: cop were just an attempt at either scumbaiting or trying to draw a bullet. I’ll explain both.
First off, I don’t think I’ve ever seen or played a mafia game without some kind of investigation role, so I came into this game assuming there would be a cop. After OnceKing flipped as doctor and I felt there were almost certainly just two mafia, I really re-examined that assumption considering the numbers of the “automatic balance tester” (http://hamumu.com/forum/showthread.php?p=263954). To explain, the numbers come out as follows: 2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +5 = town favored 1 mafia goon (-6) and 1 godfather (-7) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +4 = town favored 2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 6 vanilla town (+6) and 1 medic (+5) = 0 = balanced
Based on those numbers I concluded damn, we probably have no cop. But, my post suggested that I felt there was probably a cop. This was to invite mafia to claim cop.
If we had two people claim cop today, then the game becomes easier – since one would be lying, we’d essentially have a confirmed town (the non-cop). If one person claimed cop, the numbers would suggest to me that they were probably mafia faking the claim and expecting no counter claim (because no real cop is in the game). So, if either of you claimed cop, that would have been nice. Um… you can still claim it though :3 pls?
Alternatively, my post might make mafia think I was cop. I didn’t think this was very likely because I feel my play doesn’t look like a cop… cop Amiko probably would have checked n1k0/Beneather/Valenius given my perception of them as potentially scummy lurkers who were unlikely to be killed by mafia. But, if mafia thought I might be cop, they might hit me and leave a town player who appeared more towny (Tolkien, potentially Valenius) alive. The post didn’t really give me any information but I can understand why my post seemed weird. I guess I could suggest it’s more scummy that Valenius raised the point (maybe he was considering killing me or claiming cop?) but that feels like weak grounds for a read.
Night Kills theDragoon does mention that two of the people who had initially voted for me d1 were night killed (Tolkien and OnceKing). I guess that’s true, but they didn’t even vote for me so it feels like reaching that I would want to kill them for suspecting me d1. I don’t get any significant reads from the kill on OnceKing. From my point of view, he was an obvious kills for mafia at least because of his strong town play and because people perceived him as town. Tolkien feels somewhat similar to OnceKing – he’s also a strong town player who people perceived as town. I think we can get a little from his kill, though, because mafia is specifically looking at a LYLO situation. The weird think about these kills is that OnceKing didn’t get killed day 1. In other words, Robik’s death feels more significant because he was killed instead of another more town player (OnecKing). So, I’m going to focus a little more on the Robik kill.
Kill on Robik First off, I’ll grant that IAmRobik was suspicious of confirmed scum n1k0, so there is some justification for killing him regardless of who last mafia is.
1) A mafia Amiko probably would not kill IAmRobik. I’ve referred to my “who could have saved Cavalinho” post a few times. I’ll grant that the case wasn’t strong, but think about how a mafia Amiko would see the game. Mafia Amiko had made a case using vote analysis on IAmRobik. Mafia Amiko could push on IAmRobik day 2 hoping to get another mislynch while also appearing more town (by being proactive). In reality, the target of my n1 pressure was killed, so I ended up feeling very unsure about day 2 because the two people I had pushed on (Cavalinho & Robik) had both died and flipped town, and I wasn’t satisfied with the responses we were getting.
I’ll also note that n1k0 did start to backpack onto my points on Robik. Given that we had both just been the only two votes mislynching Cavalinho, it seems like drawing ourselves further together is just making us seem like an even more obvious team. I’ll grant there is probably some crazy WIFOM play where two mafia do the exact same thing, but that just seems like a lot of commitment for no reason… If I was mafia, I could have moved my vote off Cavalinho and gotten Tolkien lynched instead (he was the second to get two votes). I had raised a few points that made me seem him as mafia, so I think I would have had a legitimate reason to separate the mafia votes while getting a mislynch. Moreover, the mislynch would be among three people instead of just two, and I would have saved Cavalinho (who had indicated he thought I was town, even if he was a jerk about it).
Based on that, I think (1) mafia Amiko would not kill IAmRobik and (2) an Amiko & n1k0 mafia team would link themselves so much when they don’t need to do so. 2) A mafia theDragoon probably wouldn’t kill Robik
Tolkien mostly covers this, I have just a point to add below. I agree with the analysis here.
On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote: It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill.
Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself. Now, if I survive, it depends entirely on who dies, but I assume theDragoon dies over Amiko based on the false reads I was giving leading up to here. If I don't live, he can sit back and watch town try to lynch each other.
If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it.
Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0.
The only thing to add to this is that theDragoon also has less reason to vote for Robik because Robik called him town (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20820245).
3) A mafia Valenius would see Robik as a high priority kill I stress the high priority. Ending d1, I felt like ok, OnceKing will probably die because he presented as somewhat towny, got discussion going, and didn’t tunnel on a mislynch like I did. Tolkien’s discussion (above) provides one reason that separately from n1k0, Valenius would have seen Robik as the kill.
In summary, Robik might just have been killed because he was calling out mafia n1k0. But, I still think that besides n1k0, theDragoon and I had reasons not to kill Robik, whereas Valenius had reasons to kill Robik.
--
@Valenius and @theDragoon: Did you see OnceKing as a likely kill night 1?
I gave one point regarding my day 2 activity in this post (why I wouldn’t kill Robik) but I’ll try to give you more defense of it in a later post if you see it as scummy
On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: A Decent Argument
What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy
Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth.
Sorry, I am confused by your response to this one, maybe I misunderstood what you meant in the earlier post or in this one. Which post by n1k0 were you saying was a decent argument?
On February 26 2014 08:56 Amiko wrote: I started a post but I didn’t get through nearly as much as I was hoping. More coming once I’m home, but here’s a few things I can post to keep discussion going.
On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote: I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum.
I guess I figured there was a chance Tolkien’s night post was mafia bait given his phrasing - if Tolkien thought I was “definitely scum” then there’s no way he could see theDragoon as “maybe scum” (because there’s just one mafia left). The important post to me is Tolkien’s second so we’ll get to that.
My Discussion of Cops This is something I didn’t want to address in my first post because of the possibility one of you two would claim cop but I’m fine with raising it now.
Valenius mentions my reference to the cop here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20869986). My posts re: cop were just an attempt at either scumbaiting or trying to draw a bullet. I’ll explain both.
First off, I don’t think I’ve ever seen or played a mafia game without some kind of investigation role, so I came into this game assuming there would be a cop. After OnceKing flipped as doctor and I felt there were almost certainly just two mafia, I really re-examined that assumption considering the numbers of the “automatic balance tester” (http://hamumu.com/forum/showthread.php?p=263954). To explain, the numbers come out as follows: 2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +5 = town favored 1 mafia goon (-6) and 1 godfather (-7) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +4 = town favored 2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 6 vanilla town (+6) and 1 medic (+5) = 0 = balanced
Based on those numbers I concluded damn, we probably have no cop. But, my post suggested that I felt there was probably a cop. This was to invite mafia to claim cop.
If we had two people claim cop today, then the game becomes easier – since one would be lying, we’d essentially have a confirmed town (the non-cop). If one person claimed cop, the numbers would suggest to me that they were probably mafia faking the claim and expecting no counter claim (because no real cop is in the game). So, if either of you claimed cop, that would have been nice. Um… you can still claim it though :3 pls?
Alternatively, my post might make mafia think I was cop. I didn’t think this was very likely because I feel my play doesn’t look like a cop… cop Amiko probably would have checked n1k0/Beneather/Valenius given my perception of them as potentially scummy lurkers who were unlikely to be killed by mafia. But, if mafia thought I might be cop, they might hit me and leave a town player who appeared more towny (Tolkien, potentially Valenius) alive. The post didn’t really give me any information but I can understand why my post seemed weird. I guess I could suggest it’s more scummy that Valenius raised the point (maybe he was considering killing me or claiming cop?) but that feels like weak grounds for a read.
Night Kills theDragoon does mention that two of the people who had initially voted for me d1 were night killed (Tolkien and OnceKing). I guess that’s true, but they didn’t even vote for me so it feels like reaching that I would want to kill them for suspecting me d1. I don’t get any significant reads from the kill on OnceKing. From my point of view, he was an obvious kills for mafia at least because of his strong town play and because people perceived him as town. Tolkien feels somewhat similar to OnceKing – he’s also a strong town player who people perceived as town. I think we can get a little from his kill, though, because mafia is specifically looking at a LYLO situation. The weird think about these kills is that OnceKing didn’t get killed day 1. In other words, Robik’s death feels more significant because he was killed instead of another more town player (OnecKing). So, I’m going to focus a little more on the Robik kill.
Kill on Robik First off, I’ll grant that IAmRobik was suspicious of confirmed scum n1k0, so there is some justification for killing him regardless of who last mafia is.
1) A mafia Amiko probably would not kill IAmRobik. I’ve referred to my “who could have saved Cavalinho” post a few times. I’ll grant that the case wasn’t strong, but think about how a mafia Amiko would see the game. Mafia Amiko had made a case using vote analysis on IAmRobik. Mafia Amiko could push on IAmRobik day 2 hoping to get another mislynch while also appearing more town (by being proactive). In reality, the target of my n1 pressure was killed, so I ended up feeling very unsure about day 2 because the two people I had pushed on (Cavalinho & Robik) had both died and flipped town, and I wasn’t satisfied with the responses we were getting.
I’ll also note that n1k0 did start to backpack onto my points on Robik. Given that we had both just been the only two votes mislynching Cavalinho, it seems like drawing ourselves further together is just making us seem like an even more obvious team. I’ll grant there is probably some crazy WIFOM play where two mafia do the exact same thing, but that just seems like a lot of commitment for no reason… If I was mafia, I could have moved my vote off Cavalinho and gotten Tolkien lynched instead (he was the second to get two votes). I had raised a few points that made me seem him as mafia, so I think I would have had a legitimate reason to separate the mafia votes while getting a mislynch. Moreover, the mislynch would be among three people instead of just two, and I would have saved Cavalinho (who had indicated he thought I was town, even if he was a jerk about it).
Based on that, I think (1) mafia Amiko would not kill IAmRobik and (2) an Amiko & n1k0 mafia team would link themselves so much when they don’t need to do so. 2) A mafia theDragoon probably wouldn’t kill Robik
Tolkien mostly covers this, I have just a point to add below. I agree with the analysis here.
On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote: It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill.
Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself. Now, if I survive, it depends entirely on who dies, but I assume theDragoon dies over Amiko based on the false reads I was giving leading up to here. If I don't live, he can sit back and watch town try to lynch each other.
If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it.
Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0.
The only thing to add to this is that theDragoon also has less reason to vote for Robik because Robik called him town (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20820245).
3) A mafia Valenius would see Robik as a high priority kill I stress the high priority. Ending d1, I felt like ok, OnceKing will probably die because he presented as somewhat towny, got discussion going, and didn’t tunnel on a mislynch like I did. Tolkien’s discussion (above) provides one reason that separately from n1k0, Valenius would have seen Robik as the kill.
In summary, Robik might just have been killed because he was calling out mafia n1k0. But, I still think that besides n1k0, theDragoon and I had reasons not to kill Robik, whereas Valenius had reasons to kill Robik.
--
@Valenius and @theDragoon: Did you see OnceKing as a likely kill night 1?
I gave one point regarding my day 2 activity in this post (why I wouldn’t kill Robik) but I’ll try to give you more defense of it in a later post if you see it as scummy
Made the mistake of checking reddit and refreshing before turning off pc, so here goes.
I posted my thoughts on the Robik kill before, but in summary. You're posting about what a mafia amiko wouldn't do? A 'Mafia Valenius' wouldn't kill the guy who only I have a vote on, who's the only guy who raised any sort of suspicions on me that are worth responding to (more than the 'you're not contributing as much as me' posts). When I left the thread for that night, there were 2 votes on Cavalinho: Yours and n1k0's. It would have been a much better play to piggyback onto your votes, and make up some reasoning based around loosely what the d1 arguments against cav were.
Instead, I had him as a town read, and kept my vote on robik (Reasoning explained at length several times throughout the thread). To then kill robik that night when i'm the only vote on him is nonsensical. If I was playing mafia, My vote wouldn't have been on someone as obscure as Robik.
As for your directed question:
As i put in my last meaty post, yes and no.
Obviously viewing as if from a scum perspective:
Yes: I know he's town, so he's proving himself to be a town leader straight off the bat. The average level of discussion in a newbie game is going to be lower, so I'd want to get rid of any potentially leading players early on. Pretty simple answer. No: He's a reasonably likely medic save, so that'd waste a night.
On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: A Decent Argument
What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy
Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth.
Sorry, I am confused by your response to this one, maybe I misunderstood what you meant in the earlier post or in this one. Which post by n1k0 were you saying was a decent argument?
I don't think i ever said n1k0 had a decent argument, "a decent argument" was the title you put into your post and that was the part I was referring to with my reply. My post there was me saying you put words in my mouth by saying I townread n1k0's argument.
@Amiko I think OnceKing was a likely night kill but I wasn't really thinking of who the mafia were going to kill at the time.
I was reading through Robik's posts after Cav's lynch and he was really active during night 1. He declined LT's formal lynching proposal.
He also suggested not to post too much info during the night, for fear that mafia might use it to get a good night kill.
On February 18 2014 12:27 IAmRobik wrote: So I guess we're allowed to talk. I suggest not going into too much detail about your reads and stuff because it may point mafia in the direction of a night kill that they want to make. All I'll say is that I was very staunch about not wanting to lynch cavalinho and that he was one of my top town and I'm highly disappointed that he was lynched.
He also disliked that Amiko was posting analysis during the night.
On February 18 2014 14:35 IAmRobik wrote: NO...STOP TALKING ABOUT THE GAME. WHAT ARE YOU DOING!?!?!?
Robik was being a much more vocal town leader than OnceKing was so I'm guessing that's why they chose to kill him rather than OnceKing. What I find intriguing is that Amiko kept trying to pull information out of people during the night, despite Robik's warning that mafia might use it against them.
Amiko asked a lot of questions directed to different players during night 1 and IAmRobik was against that, he didn't answer any of them since he didn't want to help mafia get info they can use to get a mislynch.
On February 19 2014 09:16 N1k0 wrote: @Amiko ill try to respond to your post in about 1~2 hours when im able to dedicate enough time.
On February 19 2014 06:55 IAmRobik wrote: Dude...it was nearing the end of the day, but there were people around and I thought they would see the light and vote for the obvious mafia instead of the obvious town. Unfortunately, you had your blinders on because of how he focused on you to change your mind. That's not my fault. That's yours.
If you were so sure of Cavalihno being an obvious town why did you vote for me instead of voting Tolkien which was the way you could save the obvious town? especially since you were the last one to vote.
I'll respond to this after the night phase if I'm still alive. There's no way I'm discussing anything about anything during the night. Giving mafia an idea of who I think is scummy and townie to enable them to lead a lynch on someone who the majority of the town finds scummy is stupid stupid town play. If you want to talk about the weather, I can do that. If you want me to claim that I'm a cop with a vest and a shot, who can also save people, I can do that as well.
If we're to believe Amiko is mafia, then it makes sense that they killed Robik night 1 because he was encouraging town not to post whereas Amiko was trying to gather information during the night. Most people didn't post reads during the first night, so they valued Robik's advice.
I was referring to this post (the 'decent argument' was a quote from you that I was confused about):
On February 20 2014 01:45 theDragoon wrote: LT believes that the most likely mafia are the day 1 lurkers: Valenius, N1k0 and Beneather. I just went through each of their filters and Valenius has been the most active of the three but also his posts have the least amount of substance. Even Beneather pointed it out in his latest post:
On February 18 2014 10:45 Beneather wrote: As the deadline comes closer, the scummiest person that I have read so far is Valenius, he doesn't contribute anything to town's efforts of deciding on a scum and just posts nothing of actual value. He brings up IamRobik and votes him but does not bring any reasons except that IamRobik has a problem with Valenius' posts, which is not a solid argument. I believe that Valenius might be scum because he is just posting things that look like it has contributions but in all honesty have no value. They are just restating the post and not providing any information and also has a lot of side tracking in it. As far as right now I believe that Valenius is mafia.
A lot of his posts are just him defending himself but not bring any value to the discussion. That seems very scummy, just showing up for the occasional defending but then disappear before attracting too much attention and just sit back and watch town try to lynch each other.
##VOTE Valenius
I don't really have a strong scum read on Beneather because he's posted so little, so there's definitely better lynch targets than him.
N1k0 has slightly more analysis than Beneather and some parts do look towny, but some are a little bit scummy. In particular I found that his mentioning of Amiko being godfather was rather scummy (which I previously mentioned) but says later that Amiko's posts swayed him towards a town read on Amiko. He was wrong about his scum read on Cav though, but he does make a decent argument for it. I'm waiting for his next post where he says he'll reply to Amiko, but as of now I'm not getting a strong scum read on him.
I've already mentioned my thoughts on Valenius and with OnceKing and LT making their case against him, it's only made my scum read on him stronger. He's also posted very little value despite his number of posts. At this point, I think we need to start looking for scum pairs, if we get the right lynch today it might give us a lot of information on who to lynch on day 3.
##Vote Valenius
Going to get some dinner then try to put up some more ideas
On February 18 2014 09:38 N1k0 wrote: I'll try to respond to the doubts you have but ill be brief since im heading out
First about Amiko, i started feeling him to be a red but as the day went on this suspicion went lower and lower, currently i believe him to be town, the reason i think that if he is red he's likely to be godfather is that since he tried to start the conversation which would most likely bring attention to himself which if he were red would make him vulnerable to not only getting lynched but also an investigation (which would not be a problem if he were godfather), but as i said i feel he is more likely to be town that mafia at the moment.
Why Cavalinho and not you, Cavalinho seems way more defensive than you do, and you argue with the town in mind instead of trying to save your own ass, even saying that what good could actually come out of your lynch (tho you could be a really good bluffer), plus i feel like Cavalinho jumped way too fast behind OnceKing's acusation of Amiko, 10 minutes after OnceKing's post looks like he saw an opportunity to get traction behind someone and jumped on it before it could fade away.
I agree with you that my indecisive vote is a really scummy thing to do, but i was just being honest about it, i am not sure of his mafianess but i feel like he is the most likely one to be at the time.
Im heading out now, but ill try to come back before the end of the cycle.
@Amiko Thanks for directing me to the right post, this was the post I was referring to, specifically the bolded part. Without knowing for certain n1k0's alignment it looks like a solid reason for him to vote Cav, but knowing what we know now, Cav really just found common ground between him and OnceKing and that N1k0 was making shit up to justify his vote.
I think a few recent points Valenius have raised make no sense and I will highlight them here. I have a few comments to theDragoon also I’ll hit up next.
N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town.
Yeah.. lol. This was either a major slip by n1k0 (a possibility given his overall play), or just trying to be townie. I'm leaning towards the former.
This analysis is illogical because we both should know there is almost certainly no cop (unless you want to claim it :3). With no cop, it makes no sense for there to be a godfather (the role would serve no purpose). Thus, it doesn’t make sense to read this as a slip by n1k0 at this point in the game.
On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: Both scum voting for the same lynch on d1 does seem like an over-commitment, but it's those sort of plays that sometimes need to be made. The later votes on n1k0 (Tolkien/Amiko/Beneather) were ones I felt uneasy about. Solid cases had been made on him, so keeping the vote off doesn't serve much purpose. It puts more pressure on him to put up a good defense, which we can learn more from. (Okay, he crumbled in this case, but you'd expect a better defence).
Sure, sometimes mafia may make desperate plays. But, none of the three of us would have felt desperate day 1. N1k0 and his partner each could have placed their vote on a few different people and still gotten a mislynch. Yes, mafia could vote together day 1 to get a mislynch, but there’s no reason they would group their votes when there is no cause for desperation, no need for over-commitment.
On February 26 2014 09:20 Valenius wrote: I posted my thoughts on the Robik kill before, but in summary. You're posting about what a mafia amiko wouldn't do? A 'Mafia Valenius' wouldn't kill the guy who only I have a vote on, who's the only guy who raised any sort of suspicions on me that are worth responding to (more than the 'you're not contributing as much as me' posts). When I left the thread for that night, there were 2 votes on Cavalinho: Yours and n1k0's. It would have been a much better play to piggyback onto your votes, and make up some reasoning based around loosely what the d1 arguments against cav were.
Instead, I had him as a town read, and kept my vote on robik (Reasoning explained at length several times throughout the thread). To then kill robik that night when i'm the only vote on him is nonsensical. If I was playing mafia, My vote wouldn't have been on someone as obscure as Robik.
This bolded statement makes no sense. Of course mafia would want to kill someone who raised a case on them, particularly if they raised suspicions that were meritorious enough to require answering. The point is, Robik was a weird kill for night one. But, it makes a lot more sense if the scumteam is Robik & n1k0. Keep this in mind for the next point.
On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon.
Responding to this post actually made me groan. I thought to myself, that’s weird, I remember correcting someone on this exact point a day or two ago. So I looked up my post and it turns out Valenius I corrected you on this exact point earlier. IAmRobik did read theDragoon, and he did so very strongly.
On February 20 2014 09:24 Amiko wrote: Valenius’ comment on my Analysis re: Cavalinho & Robik Valenius argues here that I included a post from IAmRobik and misrepresent it as saying IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town:
On February 20 2014 05:51 Valenius wrote: Amiko In your post listing off posts where IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town, you’ve included one where he agrees with your analysis of Cavalinho, early-ish in Day 1. Your reads from that post are that Cavalinho was scummy. Did you include this post in the hopes no one would read it, and to pad out your post ? What’s your reason for lying about the content of that post?
I think Valenius misread the IAmRobik post he is referring to. There’s two parts of IAmRobik’s post, I think Valenius read the second without putting it in context.
On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: I kinda like theDragoon's posts in the middle of page 7 and I am willing to remove him from my lynch list for today. While I don't agree w/ him on the conclusion regarding Amiko, I am 100% in agreement with the conclusion and case that he laid out with regards to Cavalinho being town
On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: This is an excellent analysis post from Amiko and totally makes sense from his perspective. To answer his question regarding my lack of follow up, I don't know that OnceKing responded, but I really didn't care too much. I figured I should null read everyone and just assume that both mafia/town would have gotten some guidance from their coach if their post sounds too good:
Valenius’ implication that I saw Cavalinho as scum, IAmRobik is saying he agrees with me, therefore he thought IAmRobik was scum. But, if you read the post in full (the bolded, 100% part, lol) I think it is obvious IAmRobik saw Cavalinho as town so my post wasn’t misrepresenting him.
Robik read theDragoon as town. He read me as town. He read you as scum and he read n1k0 as scum. He died the same night.
On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: I think i've provided more meat than you can handle, amiko. I tried my best, so sorry :p
You gave me meat. So I made a sandwich A SCUM SANDWICH. (YOU ARE THE SCUM) (I HAD BREAD ALREADY)
theDragoon: [u]Night Posts[u] In this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20871762) you point out that I push for night actions and suggest perhaps Robik was killed because he was against night discussion. First off, just a gut answer - that seems to me like a really low priority reason for mafia to kill someone. Second, OnceKing got killed the same night he posted we should contribute at night, and he was killed the same night. Third, I still have a strong feeling that talking at night is good for town. I mean honestly, we tip mafia off to our reads during the day too. 24 hours of silence in the thread would suck.
On February 26 2014 06:48 theDragoon wrote: Fair enough, but the difference I see between you putting Amiko in your scum reads and the other night kills were that they voted for the scum (n1k0), except LT. Also, during day 1, Amiko had three people vote for him, who later switched their votes for the final count. Of the three people who voted Amiko, two were night killed and one was lynched on day 1. There's no denying there's a trend in the night kills, what we have to determine is if it leads to the right direction.
I get what you are saying, but I don’t feel this is strongly indicative of town or mafia. The people who voted for me moved their votes off of me – they considered me and decided I was more town than scum, or that I was at least not as scummy as other players. I think mafia Amiko would want to keep them alive since they had a townread or nonscumread d1.
I imagine mafia amiko is me but with an evil moustache and black hat :3
@Amiko That's a good point, but we need to add up all the info we can get from Robik's death to see if we can find something that can help us. Regarding contributing at night, I'm not for a silent night but giving out too much information or saying the wrong things can bite you in the ass later.
--
If you read the posts during night 2, you can see that everyone except Beneather(doesn't really count) and OnceKing read Valenius as town. OnceKing already prepared his death bed with the big push on n1k0's lynch. If Valenius is mafia, OnceKing not giving him a town read is another reason he was killed. Valenius gains the most from OnceKing's death since the most influential town player at the time did not explicitly state that he had a town read on Valenius, even though everyone else did.
I'm gonna carefully read through all of day 4 tomorrow and put in my vote, hopefully it's the right one.
On February 26 2014 12:35 Amiko wrote: I think a few recent points Valenius have raised make no sense and I will highlight them here. I have a few comments to theDragoon also I’ll hit up next.
N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town.
Yeah.. lol. This was either a major slip by n1k0 (a possibility given his overall play), or just trying to be townie. I'm leaning towards the former.
This analysis is illogical because we both should know there is almost certainly no cop (unless you want to claim it :3). With no cop, it makes no sense for there to be a godfather (the role would serve no purpose). Thus, it doesn’t make sense to read this as a slip by n1k0 at this point in the game.
The post by n1k0 wasn't today.. it was early in the game. Earlier in the game we had no idea if there was a cop. Hell, we had no idea if there were 0 blue roles, or several blue roles. How can you try and compare a slip-read of earlier in the game, and pretend it's a slip-read for today? That makes no sense whatsoever.
On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: Both scum voting for the same lynch on d1 does seem like an over-commitment, but it's those sort of plays that sometimes need to be made. The later votes on n1k0 (Tolkien/Amiko/Beneather) were ones I felt uneasy about. Solid cases had been made on him, so keeping the vote off doesn't serve much purpose. It puts more pressure on him to put up a good defense, which we can learn more from. (Okay, he crumbled in this case, but you'd expect a better defence).
Sure, sometimes mafia may make desperate plays. But, none of the three of us would have felt desperate day 1. N1k0 and his partner each could have placed their vote on a few different people and still gotten a mislynch. Yes, mafia could vote together day 1 to get a mislynch, but there’s no reason they would group their votes when there is no cause for desperation, no need for over-commitment.
You say this, yet you're saying that I'm most likely to be killing robik based on his read on me for night 1? Is Day1 that much different to night 1 in that regard?
It doesn't have to be a desperation play, it could be a calculated play? Stick both on the same target, and if one get's caught then this defence is wheeled out?
On February 26 2014 09:20 Valenius wrote: I posted my thoughts on the Robik kill before, but in summary. You're posting about what a mafia amiko wouldn't do? A 'Mafia Valenius' wouldn't kill the guy who only I have a vote on, who's the only guy who raised any sort of suspicions on me that are worth responding to (more than the 'you're not contributing as much as me' posts). When I left the thread for that night, there were 2 votes on Cavalinho: Yours and n1k0's. It would have been a much better play to piggyback onto your votes, and make up some reasoning based around loosely what the d1 arguments against cav were.
Instead, I had him as a town read, and kept my vote on robik (Reasoning explained at length several times throughout the thread). To then kill robik that night when i'm the only vote on him is nonsensical. If I was playing mafia, My vote wouldn't have been on someone as obscure as Robik.
This bolded statement makes no sense. Of course mafia would want to kill someone who raised a case on them, particularly if they raised suspicions that were meritorious enough to require answering. The point is, Robik was a weird kill for night one. But, it makes a lot more sense if the scumteam is Robik & n1k0. Keep this in mind for the next point.
I honestly do disagree with your entire reasoning behind this. If I were mafia, i'd be trying to blend in, not kill the person who's only raised a kind of case on me. As for "meritorious enough to require answering", I answered them because i felt they were scummy. I've gone through in great detail my thought process behind his posts. Beneather tried to point some suspicion at me too, but his post was absolutely worthless so it didn't require a response.
On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon.
Responding to this post actually made me groan. I thought to myself, that’s weird, I remember correcting someone on this exact point a day or two ago. So I looked up my post and it turns out Valenius I corrected you on this exact point earlier. IAmRobik did read theDragoon, and he did so very strongly.
On February 20 2014 09:24 Amiko wrote: Valenius’ comment on my Analysis re: Cavalinho & Robik Valenius argues here that I included a post from IAmRobik and misrepresent it as saying IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town:
On February 20 2014 05:51 Valenius wrote: Amiko In your post listing off posts where IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town, you’ve included one where he agrees with your analysis of Cavalinho, early-ish in Day 1. Your reads from that post are that Cavalinho was scummy. Did you include this post in the hopes no one would read it, and to pad out your post ? What’s your reason for lying about the content of that post?
I think Valenius misread the IAmRobik post he is referring to. There’s two parts of IAmRobik’s post, I think Valenius read the second without putting it in context.
On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: I kinda like theDragoon's posts in the middle of page 7 and I am willing to remove him from my lynch list for today. While I don't agree w/ him on the conclusion regarding Amiko, I am 100% in agreement with the conclusion and case that he laid out with regards to Cavalinho being town
On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: This is an excellent analysis post from Amiko and totally makes sense from his perspective. To answer his question regarding my lack of follow up, I don't know that OnceKing responded, but I really didn't care too much. I figured I should null read everyone and just assume that both mafia/town would have gotten some guidance from their coach if their post sounds too good:
Valenius’ implication that I saw Cavalinho as scum, IAmRobik is saying he agrees with me, therefore he thought IAmRobik was scum. But, if you read the post in full (the bolded, 100% part, lol) I think it is obvious IAmRobik saw Cavalinho as town so my post wasn’t misrepresenting him.
Robik read theDragoon as town. He read me as town. He read you as scum and he read n1k0 as scum. He died the same night.
Firstly, In the nicest way possible, get off your high horse. Don't even try to act indignant for having to answer something twice. I've answered multiple questions MULTIPLE times throughout this thread.
The point I wan't to draw out of this..
IAmRobik did read theDragoon, and he did so very strongly.
In what universe does "I kinda like theDragoon's posts" equal reading him very strongly? I'm sorry if I'm being really dense here, but I can't understand where you got this conclusion from.
Robik read theDragoon as town. He read me as town. He read you as scum and he read n1k0 as scum. He died the same night.
He also had tolkien as more mafia than me. Don't try and pretend his reads were all-knowing.
On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: I think i've provided more meat than you can handle, amiko. I tried my best, so sorry :p
You gave me meat. So I made a sandwich A SCUM SANDWICH. (YOU ARE THE SCUM) (I HAD BREAD ALREADY)
[/quote]
Offtopic: We need to stop talking about meat.. It's one of my colleagues leaving do's on Friday. After a day with no lunch break, the last thing you want to see is a menu drop into your inbox at 4pm, with this as the main picture.. http://i.imgur.com/kzXIlnH.jpg
On February 26 2014 12:52 Amiko wrote: theDragoon: [u]Night Posts[u] In this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20871762) you point out that I push for night actions and suggest perhaps Robik was killed because he was against night discussion. First off, just a gut answer - that seems to me like a really low priority reason for mafia to kill someone. Second, OnceKing got killed the same night he posted we should contribute at night, and he was killed the same night. Third, I still have a strong feeling that talking at night is good for town. I mean honestly, we tip mafia off to our reads during the day too. 24 hours of silence in the thread would suck.
We've had almost 12 hours of inactivity before on a day phase, it wouldn't be that different!
My feelings on this: Early on in the game, the reads aren't usually going to be strong enough to post conclusions that the rest of town can't draw themselves (either the next day, or following days). There's no real indication of who's going to be killed night 1, so the chance of you having to post your reads to try and steer town in the right directon is lower. The only time I'd flip on this, is if it's a cop who has a scum read, who's coming out. That needs to be as late as possible so it doesn't influence the kill. (This would obviously have to be day2/night2, unless it's a game where night0 actions take place.
Last night however, although I disagree with the majority of tolkiens post, when it was almost a given that he would be dying if he's town, it's reasonable to post your thoughts.
On February 26 2014 13:48 theDragoon wrote: @Amiko That's a good point, but we need to add up all the info we can get from Robik's death to see if we can find something that can help us. Regarding contributing at night, I'm not for a silent night but giving out too much information or saying the wrong things can bite you in the ass later.
--
If you read the posts during night 2, you can see that everyone except Beneather(doesn't really count) and OnceKing read Valenius as town. OnceKing already prepared his death bed with the big push on n1k0's lynch. If Valenius is mafia, OnceKing not giving him a town read is another reason he was killed. Valenius gains the most from OnceKing's death since the most influential town player at the time did not explicitly state that he had a town read on Valenius, even though everyone else did.
Bolded the part:
No. The mafia get's the most out of killing the most influential player. I feel you're probably looking at this angle a bit wrong. OnceKing didn't label me town, but i'm not the only one he hasn't labeled as town. In fact, the only one I can see being labeled as town by him day2 is Lord Tolkien. He hasn't played by labelling every single player.
As for everyone else calling me town, I've already mentioned earlier today my views on that; It was reasonably naive to all 100% me based on that flip. Read further back to see my view more expanded.
Anyway, Amiko: My vote's still falling on your side of the wall.
If you want to ask me any more questions, I'll be online for the next ~4-5 hours then off for the night.
On February 26 2014 09:04 Amiko wrote: @theDragoon If you answered this sorry I missed it, please do:
On February 25 2014 16:22 Amiko wrote:
On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: A Decent Argument
What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy
Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth.
Sorry, I am confused by your response to this one, maybe I misunderstood what you meant in the earlier post or in this one. Which post by n1k0 were you saying was a decent argument?
I don't think i ever said n1k0 had a decent argument, "a decent argument" was the title you put into your post and that was the part I was referring to with my reply. My post there was me saying you put words in my mouth by saying I townread n1k0's argument.
Your exact words for your read on n1k0's argument:
N1k0 has slightly more analysis than Beneather and some parts do look towny, but some are a little bit scummy. In particular I found that his mentioning of Amiko being godfather was rather scummy (which I previously mentioned) but says later that Amiko's posts swayed him towards a town read on Amiko. He was wrong about his scum read on Cav though, but he does make a decent argument for it.
Valenius lists his town and mafia reads. The part that struck out to me was his mafia read on IAmRobik and his reason behind it, which he said was “just a gut feeling”. His posts after that are targeted towards Robik since he thought that Valenius was super scummy. He then votes for Robik but I have yet to see his reason for wanting to lynch Robik other than Robik calling him scum. Rather than looking for other scum, Valenius has complete tunnel vision on Robik, not sure if it’s because he panicked that Robik got an accurate read on him or he just OMGUS. I would really like to hear Valenius’ reason to keep his vote on Robik, despite not having a sufficient argument for his scum read.
Also, Lord Tolkien made a good point with this:
Both of the votes on N1k0 are dead, but it might just be mafia exploiting the situation to get a mislynch going.
With a mafia read on Valenius, it makes sense that Robik was their target for the night kill. Val’s vote on Robik didn’t gain traction and they saw the opportunity to implicate N1k0 with a mislynch since both players who voted him are now dead. This would also suggest that N1k0 is town if Val is mafia. If Val and N1k0 are scum partners then I don’t think they would have shot Robik since it makes N1k0 look very suspicious.As of now my strongest scum read is Valenius.
This could have been the plan all along? Vote Robik -> Implicate Me.
Right. theDragoon, if you're mafia and you win.. fair play. You'll have completely fooled me. I have a stronger mafia read on Amiko, and i've tried combing through your filter.. but apart from the stuff posted over the last few pages (some by amiko), I really can't see anything more suspicious.
I'm gonna be watching football (soccer for you guys) for a bit, but i'll be refreshing every few minutes.
N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town.
Yeah.. lol. This was either a major slip by n1k0 (a possibility given his overall play), or just trying to be townie. I'm leaning towards the former.
This analysis is illogical because we both should know there is almost certainly no cop (unless you want to claim it :3). With no cop, it makes no sense for there to be a godfather (the role would serve no purpose). Thus, it doesn’t make sense to read this as a slip by n1k0 at this point in the game.
The post by n1k0 wasn't today.. it was early in the game. Earlier in the game we had no idea if there was a cop. Hell, we had no idea if there were 0 blue roles, or several blue roles. How can you try and compare a slip-read of earlier in the game, and pretend it's a slip-read for today? That makes no sense whatsoever.
N1k0’s post was early in the game, however your comment on n1k0’s analysis was not. At this point we know there is no cop, so it seems very unlikely there is a godfather. So it doesn’t make sense that n1k0 would Just to be clear, this is all meta argument. It is possible the setup could have a godfather without a cop – this might confuse mafia into assuming there is a cop at the beginning of the game, or it might confuse town into assuming there is a cop if someone flips godfather. It is possible there is a town roleblocker, even though that role could serve no town purpose given the available roles (it can’t stop a mafia kill and can’t cancel a mafia roleblock, so essentially town roleblocker could only screw over a cop/vigi/medic). To me, these things feel unlikely enough to me that they should be discounted. Based on the information I have now, I would see n1k0 calling someone godfather (when all signs point to no godfather) as mafia misdirection.
Sure, sometimes mafia may make desperate plays. But, none of the three of us would have felt desperate day 1. N1k0 and his partner each could have placed their vote on a few different people and still gotten a mislynch. Yes, mafia could vote together day 1 to get a mislynch, but there’s no reason they would group their votes when there is no cause for desperation, no need for over-commitment.
You say this, yet you're saying that I'm most likely to be killing robik based on his read on me for night 1? Is Day1 that much different to night 1 in that regard?
We had a lot of activity that could be seen as OMGUS on day 1. I voted Cavalinho after he voted for me. Tolkien voted for OnceKing after OnceKing voted for him. Cavalinho voted for n1k0 after n1k0 voted for him. I don’t see your vote on Robik as indicative of much of anything,
Robik read on theDragoon
Here we are talking about Valenius saying Robik never read theDragoon.
On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon.
I posted one thing where Robik says he likes theDragoon and Valenius says that isn’t a strong read-
On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote: In what universe does "I kinda like theDragoon's posts" equal reading him very strongly? I'm sorry if I'm being really dense here, but I can't understand where you got this conclusion from.
Robik equated that post to a read of theDragoon being town. He spelled it out a little more clearly here:
On February 18 2014 04:57 IAmRobik wrote: I just haven't switched my vote yet. I do think TheDragoon is town as I expressed. I honestly forgot that my vote was on him.
##unvote
I hope you can understand how I read your posts and feel they are not correct, if you open Robik’s filter and search theDragoon these posts are there.
Valenius posted something that I thought might help explain my day 2 since it was read as scummy play.
On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote: I honestly do disagree with your entire reasoning behind this. If I were mafia, i'd be trying to blend in, not kill the person who's only raised a kind of case on me. As for "meritorious enough to require answering", I answered them because i felt they were scummy. I've gone through in great detail my thought process behind his posts. Beneather tried to point some suspicion at me too, but his post was absolutely worthless so it didn't require a response.
I don’t think anyone brought a strong case against my day 2, but it is generally perceived as scummy because I didn’t commit strongly to my reads. I agree with Valenius’ comment on Beneather here, and it is the main reason for my day 2 play.
In my mind day 2 was picking between three people – Beneather, Valenius, n1k0. N1k0 contributed a few posts but almost all were backpacking. Valenius had an actual case brought against him and was responding. Beneather contributed two posts in two days that had any substance.
I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went- When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads. When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads. We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful.
We know now that Beneather was probably idle, but if he was lurking mafia I think it was realistic to think if he became a focus, he would try to throw up some kind of defense. We didn’t get any real pressure on him and we paid for it. He became a liability for town nothing to read town or scum and a potential modkill. When we lynched Beneather we had no meaningful discussion because there was nothing to meaningfully discuss.
I get that you would both be more comfortable if I joined the voted on n1k0 earlier. But, Beneather's contributions were so empty that I felt we should to try to get information from someone who had somehow gotten by without posting substantively. My posts throughout the day reflect that and I think it was good play.
Here’s where I am at. I think I pushed a little on theDragoon and more on Valenius today and Valenius pushed more on me today. From the posts I feel Valenius is more likely to be mafia, but I don’t like that theDragoon is on the sidelines. Even so, when I tried to make a case on theDragoon I couldn’t really convince myself he was more likely to be mafia than Valenius.
I feel Valenius is probably the last mafia. However, if you are town Valenius I would ask you to post what you can about theDragoon. You can certainly respond to my posts but I think we spent more time going over you and me than theDragoon so maybe you will turn up something new.
On February 27 2014 04:03 Valenius wrote: Right. theDragoon, if you're mafia and you win.. fair play. You'll have completely fooled me. I have a stronger mafia read on Amiko, and i've tried combing through your filter.. but apart from the stuff posted over the last few pages (some by amiko), I really can't see anything more suspicious.
welp. That basically answers my 3/3 post (above this). Maybe we are only spinning wheels at this point, but if you have new comments on my posts please do post them.
I guess there's probably only one more thing to raise with you Valenius-
Currently I still read you as scummier than theDragoon. There is some relaxation in thinking that well, if Valenius is town and he is voting wrong (which you are) then the game is lost at this point regardless of who I vote for.
For what it's worth, even if I convince you to vote theDragoon, I will probably still vote for you, so maybe the result won't change the game. But this does at least give town a better shot at winning because I know I am town.
We've both already tried to read through theDragoon's filter and we didn't come up with much. But, if you look at theDragoon and I, I think you can at least conclude that I have been more proactively scum hunting than him - he has been mostly defensive on himself without contributing as much to the points you and I have raised on each other. Maybe we can't make a strong argument for theDragoon as scum, but I'd at least argue you can read me as more town than him. You haven't seen theDragoon put substantial questions to either of us, and I feel you can fairly conclude that I've justified my scumread on you with more than he has. Yeah, I am probably going to vote you, but if you are town then the only way we can win is if you vote theDragoon.
I'll likely eat a quick lunch and be back in about an hour.
I reread the thread and I'm leaning more towards Amiko being scum. I feel like he's had the more scummy filter and the weakest arguments for me and Valenius being scum and also weaker defenses for himself.
Some of the things that stood out to me were:
N1k0 discouraging cop checks on Amiko despite labeling him as likely to be godfather but still calls him town
Amiko's day 2 play was shady and his hesitant to vote for n1k0 could mean he was waiting to see if he can salvage the situation
Amiko was trying to gather info night 1 for a more educated night kill despite Robik's warning that it might help mafia
Amiko and n1k0 both voted for Cav day 1, nobody really caught on until day 4 so it was a risk worth taking
##Vote Amiko
I'm still willing to change my vote, there's been a few new posts since I reread day 4 so I'll look into those and see if I can get anything to convince me this is the right choice or not.
WE NOW know there is no cop, but n1k0 DIDNT. That's my whole point. I'm commenting on his post as it is at the time, with the information available at that point. Nobody had a flying clue if we had a cop.
"With no cop, it makes no sense for there to be a godfather (the role would serve no purpose)."
What? The roles were chosen randomly from the pool at the start. It's even stated in the first posts. (2nd post) "This is a semi-open set-up meaning that while all of the roles possible will be displayed the number of each role in game is unknown. "
I don't know how the hosts choose roles, but I'd kinda doubt they'd interfere to specifically change a godfather to a goon. I could understand interference though if the rolling for roles brought up 8 cops and 1 godfather (shit would be funny though).
"It is possible the setup could have a godfather without a cop – this might confuse mafia into assuming there is a cop at the beginning of the game, or it might confuse town into assuming there is a cop if someone flips godfather."
I understand what you're saying here, but again i really disagree. The host should be as impartial as possible. Editing the setup to take out those roles could influence mafia play.. I don't think they'd do it.
Of course, as you've said; It is a meta discussion; I just don't think your comment on my post is really relevant to the actual content of my post, and instead just dismissing it as wrong logic based on what we now know.
Here we are talking about Valenius saying Robik never read theDragoon.
Read my entire post, not just the first sentence. It goes on to say how I think it's odd based on his later listings of you below thedragoon, purely based on amount of reads.
In my mind day 2 was picking between three people – Beneather, Valenius, n1k0. N1k0 contributed a few posts but almost all were backpacking. Valenius had an actual case brought against him and was responding. Beneather contributed two posts in two days that had any substance.
I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went- When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads. When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads. We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful.
We know now that Beneather was probably idle, but if he was lurking mafia I think it was realistic to think if he became a focus, he would try to throw up some kind of defense. We didn’t get any real pressure on him and we paid for it. He became a liability for town nothing to read town or scum and a potential modkill. When we lynched Beneather we had no meaningful discussion because there was nothing to meaningfully discuss.
I get that you would both be more comfortable if I joined the voted on n1k0 earlier. But, Beneather's contributions were so empty that I felt we should to try to get information from someone who had somehow gotten by without posting substantively. My posts throughout the day reflect that and I think it was good play.
Ok. only real i'd like to look at here, is your comment that n1k0 responded with reads. Looking back, all of his posts post-suspicion on him were watery. It was a mix of other people's reads, and questions to try and deflect away from him.
On your latest post; As I mentioned earlier, I really cannot see much scum on theDragoon and he's been in my town pile since before today. If theDragoon is mafia, and we both vote to lynch each other (as seems likely), then i'll apologise now in the same vein as in my last post: He completely played us, and let us argue amongst ourselves for more of today.
Everything in your post is what i've been thinking, but really: I can't base my vote, or really anything off that post. I'm hope you'll understand the reasoning for that ~ I'm sure if I'd have posted that, your reaction would be the same.
Also, you can tell my heads gone haha: I was going to say how n1k0 posted 6 minutes after you questioned him (noticed whilst looking through n1k0 filter).. double checked and it's 24hours and 6 minutes. doh.
On February 21 2014 02:09 Valenius wrote: Amiko, whos your most likely vote target for today?
I still feel it’s very tough to pick between n1k0, Beneather, and Valenius. I have been hoping that one of the three would put up something that swayed me one way or another but it hasn’t happened.
At this point, though, I think it’s important that I try to put up a vote because it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect to get anything that will give me a strong read.
I don’t expect Beneather to respond in a meaningful way. If Beneather is mafia, there is no real pressure on him to post something. A few people have given him soft town read, but more importantly the votes have come in on someone else (n1k0). We can point to Beneather’s silence and ask questions to the air, but if it’s not enough to convince us to vote on him, it won’t matter to him. If Beneather is town, I don’t feel his silence is helpful to us. Since he voted to lynch Valenius day 1, I feel he has an obligation to give comments on Valenius’ day 2 comments. Particularly so when Valenius voted for him day 2. This makes me disbelieve the possibility he is a lurking town and prefer the conclusion he is idle town or mafia. In either case, I don’t expect to get anything from him that is likely to give me good reads.
So, I feel a vote on Beneather is not that well founded (because of his inactivity) and unlikely to give much information (based on considering him mafia or idle town).
So, I think I am deciding between n1k0 and Valentius. n1k0 and Valenius are both responding to posts and pressure, but I am not getting a strong read from either one. Generally, Valenius is more offensive, n1k0 more defensive. I understand feeling less confident in reads after day1 (since mine were wrong as well), but I feel if I were town in n1k0’s situation I would try to more actively make a case who I felt was mafia if only because I knew myself to be town.
On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote: Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means?
I get that this is asking questions, and that’s nice. But I feel that if you are town and you feel like the vote is going to land on you, you should be giving our reads and thoughts on the premise that town will want to consider them after you flip. At least, I think that’s what prompted me to start volunteering a lot more of my thoughts day 1. (To be fair, I don’t think Cavalinho really did that day 1, but I feel like n1k0’s vote has more momentum than his)
OK I JUST REFRESHED AND SAW BENEATHER POSTED SO IM GONNA READ THAT :X
The post prior to that, he criticized n1k0 for backpacking on other people's posts
On February 20 2014 12:47 Amiko wrote:
on n1k0
I do feel that n1k0 is backpacking on other people's posts. I somehow missed that he essentially repeated my question to Robik, though (which OnceKing points out). I could see that as pressing someone to answer something they didn't answer previously, but I think I would have written it more like "what abc is asking is xyz".
He doesn't offer any sort of original argument to justify his vote on n1k0, criticizes n1k0 for backpacking, yet he does the same thing with OnceKing's post. He was also very hesitant to vote for n1k0 and does it without providing anything new, he essentially jumped the n1k0 bandwagon after seeing that there's no way for n1k0 to get out of the mess. All of this points to mafia Amiko.
1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1. 2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my reads
No one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options.
n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this.
if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278).
3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it.
Valenius, theDragoon's vote should be really convincing to you that he is mafia over me. Although you felt more scummy, I have to conclude he is mafia based on that post and I will not bother trying to convince him at this point.
His post totally the wrong direction for town. You are about to go to sleep. Your reads and vote will presumedly be locked in once you depart. Both theDragoon and I should be spending the last few hours we have to talk to you pressing you for reads, asking you questions, and trying to convince you of our towniness. We should be trying to get as much out of you as we can. Instead, theDragoon gives a general comment that he reread the filters and now he has decided to vote for me.
He has no questions for you, he is not trying to press anything. He posts a quick laundry list of concerns that you and I have discussed in some depth and provides no reasoning or insight as to why he decides they are scummy. Each point has been made before and each has been responded to.
theDragoon doesn't try to convince you that the responses were bad, because he can't.
ALSO WTF he notices that there are new posts but decides to vote before reading them? What's the rush? WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT
Also copchecks / godfather Valenius, you and I went back and forth on this some. The only new point I want to raise is that the roles were secret, but there is no indication that they were random. I really don't think that a newbie game would be all random roles, anyway, I think it would be a balanced game. Anyway even if I can't convince you that n1k0's comment is weird, theDragoon doesn't even care that we have discussed it, doesn't weigh in at all. He doesn't want more conversation on these points because your vote is on the wrong person.
On February 27 2014 04:56 theDragoon wrote: He doesn't offer any sort of original argument to justify his vote on n1k0, criticizes n1k0 for backpacking, yet he does the same thing with OnceKing's post. He was also very hesitant to vote for n1k0 and does it without providing anything new, he essentially jumped the n1k0 bandwagon after seeing that there's no way for n1k0 to get out of the mess. All of this points to mafia Amiko.
Yes I did. I pointed out that I felt if he was town he would be giving his reads and thoughts so town could consider them post-flip.
EBWOP - Yes I did is responding to asking for original argument. (I haven't actually rechecked all the posts but I don't think anyone else raised that?)
On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote: If you believe I am mafia then:
1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1. 2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my reads
No one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options.
n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this.
if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278).
3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it.
I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start
One situation in which it would be a bad move to vote together is when one of you got lynched on the same day, then the other might be questioned for voting with the mafia. That early on in the game it doesn't really tell much about your alignment. You said it would be suspicious both mafia vote on the same guy, but nobody has really thought much of it until now, when you can't really trust anyone. I know that you voted Cav first, n1k0 likely followed to ensure a lynch, and it was n1k0's vote that broke the 3 way tie. Could n1k0 have voted for LT instead? N1k0 voting for Cav or LT would result in a mislynch, so why Cav instead of LT? Several players expressed having a strong town read on Cav (myself included), so it makes more sense for mafia to go for the person who is less suspicious.
By the time you had voted for n1k0, he already had 3 votes on him, the best way for you to blend in, is to follow the town and vote for n1k0 since it's highly likely he will be lynched. Like I mentioned previously, your justification to vote for n1k0 was basically non-existant and you just jumped on the bandwagon.
On February 27 2014 04:56 theDragoon wrote: He doesn't offer any sort of original argument to justify his vote on n1k0, criticizes n1k0 for backpacking, yet he does the same thing with OnceKing's post. He was also very hesitant to vote for n1k0 and does it without providing anything new, he essentially jumped the n1k0 bandwagon after seeing that there's no way for n1k0 to get out of the mess. All of this points to mafia Amiko.
Yes I did. I pointed out that I felt if he was town he would be giving his reads and thoughts so town could consider them post-flip.
Amiko.. several posts ago you said this:
I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went- When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads. When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads. We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful.
On February 27 2014 06:11 Amiko wrote: To be clear, theDragoon did "weigh in" only to the extent that he reads me as mafia from it, but he didn't provide any reasoning.
I've made plenty of posts during day 4 pointing to both you and Valenius as mafia and would not like to repeat them.
On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote: If you believe I am mafia then:
1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1. 2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my reads
No one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options.
n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this.
if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278).
3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it.
I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start
One situation in which it would be a bad move to vote together is when one of you got lynched on the same day, then the other might be questioned for voting with the mafia. That early on in the game it doesn't really tell much about your alignment. You said it would be suspicious both mafia vote on the same guy, but nobody has really thought much of it until now, when you can't really trust anyone. I know that you voted Cav first, n1k0 likely followed to ensure a lynch, and it was n1k0's vote that broke the 3 way tie. Could n1k0 have voted for LT instead? N1k0 voting for Cav or LT would result in a mislynch, so why Cav instead of LT? Several players expressed having a strong town read on Cav (myself included), so it makes more sense for mafia to go for the person who is less suspicious.
By the time you had voted for n1k0, he already had 3 votes on him, the best way for you to blend in, is to follow the town and vote for n1k0 since it's highly likely he will be lynched. Like I mentioned previously, your justification to vote for n1k0 was basically non-existant and you just jumped on the bandwagon.
If n1k0 and I were scum we had 2 votes to move. You think we would risk voting together to lynch a random town (Cavalinho) but not vote together to tie the votes and try to save a mafia?
On February 27 2014 06:10 Amiko wrote: Valenius, theDragoon's vote should be really convincing to you that he is mafia over me. Although you felt more scummy, I have to conclude he is mafia based on that post and I will not bother trying to convince him at this point.
His post totally the wrong direction for town. You are about to go to sleep. Your reads and vote will presumedly be locked in once you depart. Both theDragoon and I should be spending the last few hours we have to talk to you pressing you for reads, asking you questions, and trying to convince you of our towniness. We should be trying to get as much out of you as we can. Instead, theDragoon gives a general comment that he reread the filters and now he has decided to vote for me.
He has no questions for you, he is not trying to press anything. He posts a quick laundry list of concerns that you and I have discussed in some depth and provides no reasoning or insight as to why he decides they are scummy. Each point has been made before and each has been responded to.
theDragoon doesn't try to convince you that the responses were bad, because he can't.
ALSO WTF he notices that there are new posts but decides to vote before reading them? What's the rush? WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT
Also copchecks / godfather Valenius, you and I went back and forth on this some. The only new point I want to raise is that the roles were secret, but there is no indication that they were random. I really don't think that a newbie game would be all random roles, anyway, I think it would be a balanced game. Anyway even if I can't convince you that n1k0's comment is weird, theDragoon doesn't even care that we have discussed it, doesn't weigh in at all. He doesn't want more conversation on these points because your vote is on the wrong person.
I do agree on some of these, but if he assumes that we're (me & him) both voting on the mafia, then whilst there's reason to push, it's not as great as the push needed earlier imo. He's posted some on his reads.. it seems like more of a summary.
The part i've bolded: If you think i'm mafia throughout the day (which you did), then most of your focus should be on proving that to dragoon. I've tried to defend my towniness when questioned, and i've tried to draw conclusions on thedragoon, but most of my effort has been on you.
On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote: If you believe I am mafia then:
1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1. 2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my reads
No one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options.
n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this.
if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278).
3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it.
I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start
One situation in which it would be a bad move to vote together is when one of you got lynched on the same day, then the other might be questioned for voting with the mafia. That early on in the game it doesn't really tell much about your alignment. You said it would be suspicious both mafia vote on the same guy, but nobody has really thought much of it until now, when you can't really trust anyone. I know that you voted Cav first, n1k0 likely followed to ensure a lynch, and it was n1k0's vote that broke the 3 way tie. Could n1k0 have voted for LT instead? N1k0 voting for Cav or LT would result in a mislynch, so why Cav instead of LT? Several players expressed having a strong town read on Cav (myself included), so it makes more sense for mafia to go for the person who is less suspicious.
By the time you had voted for n1k0, he already had 3 votes on him, the best way for you to blend in, is to follow the town and vote for n1k0 since it's highly likely he will be lynched. Like I mentioned previously, your justification to vote for n1k0 was basically non-existant and you just jumped on the bandwagon.
If n1k0 and I were scum we had 2 votes to move. You think we would risk voting together to lynch a random town (Cavalinho) but not vote together to tie the votes and try to save a mafia?
I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first.
If he assumed that you two were both voting on the mafia, his goal of today should have been to convince you that I am mafia. Instead I think most of his posts were trying to convince me that you were mafia (until you and I had mostly indicated we were going to vote each other).
I have trouble saying that your filter is more town than theDragoons but his last post just seems so inconsistent with town that I can't really read it another way.
On February 27 2014 06:30 Valenius wrote: I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first.
I'm willing to point to a few things, there are responses that are easy to this, like if we linked ourselves d1, it would be too risky to vote together day 2 also. This just again stresses how terrible it would be for mafia to vote on the same person day 1.
On February 27 2014 06:29 Valenius wrote: The part i've bolded: If you think i'm mafia throughout the day (which you did), then most of your focus should be on proving that to dragoon. I've tried to defend my towniness when questioned, and i've tried to draw conclusions on thedragoon, but most of my effort has been on you.
I get what you are saying, but I feel like we both have acted the same way here: if you are town, you mostly focused me. I mostly focused you. I don't feel either of us was really aiming our comments at theDragoon to convince him.
@Amiko You said you were pressuring n1k0 during night 1 and here's something that I found a bit suspicious.
3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently. If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). Where do you think mafia would tend to vote?
We know for sure that one mafia voted on Cav, when you ask him if he thinks you're town why do you think at least 2 mafia voted for someone other than Cav? We know there's only 2 mafia or else the game would be over already. This part here sounds like you're trying to pin mafia on anyone other than you two. Why do you ask n1k0 where he thinks mafia would tend to vote? Since we know he's mafia, he'll answer that question pointing to the town players. If you're mafia it makes sense to ask this question to n1k0 since it helps point town towards the wrong people.
Also, I'm pressuring you more than Valenius because there's more evidence right now pointing to you as the mafia, I want you to defend yourself and convince me that you are not mafia. I want to make the right choice here and instead you're redirecting everything being thrown at you towards me.
If you are town the same logic applies to you - you should have directed comments at theDragoon to try to convince him I'm mafia.
I can't say your logic is wrong, I'm just saying I'm town and I didn't follow that logic, if you are town then you know you are town and didn't follow it either.
On February 27 2014 06:38 theDragoon wrote: @Amiko You said you were pressuring n1k0 during night 1 and here's something that I found a bit suspicious.
3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently. If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). Where do you think mafia would tend to vote?
We know for sure that one mafia voted on Cav, when you ask him if he thinks you're town why do you think at least 2 mafia voted for someone other than Cav? We know there's only 2 mafia or else the game would be over already. This part here sounds like you're trying to pin mafia on anyone other than you two. Why do you ask n1k0 where he thinks mafia would tend to vote? Since we know he's mafia, he'll answer that question pointing to the town players. If you're mafia it makes sense to ask this question to n1k0 since it helps point town towards the wrong people.
Also, I'm pressuring you more than Valenius because there's more evidence right now pointing to you as the mafia, I want you to defend yourself and convince me that you are not mafia. I want to make the right choice here and instead you're redirecting everything being thrown at you towards me.
theDragoon, I responded to at least 2-3 of your points in the posts prior to yours which you said you didn't read.
On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: N1k0 discouraging cop checks on Amiko despite labeling him as likely to be godfather but still calls him town
On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: Amiko's day 2 play was shady and his hesitant to vote for n1k0 could mean he was waiting to see if he can salvage the situation
On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: Amiko was trying to gather info night 1 for a more educated night kill despite Robik's warning that it might help mafia
On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: Amiko and n1k0 both voted for Cav day 1, nobody really caught on until day 4 so it was a risk worth taking
THIS LOGIC IS BAD. If n1k0 and I are mafia, we have no idea who will catch onto it or not when we vote together. It was a needless risk where little was gained and it makes me look bad whichever day it is raised.
---
Valenius is going to sleep soon so we should be talking with him, as town I have to make a case that you are more mafia than I am because I know I am town. If you are town your job right now is to convince him I am mafia.
On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote: If you believe I am mafia then:
1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1. 2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my reads
No one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options.
n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this.
if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278).
3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it.
I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start
One situation in which it would be a bad move to vote together is when one of you got lynched on the same day, then the other might be questioned for voting with the mafia. That early on in the game it doesn't really tell much about your alignment. You said it would be suspicious both mafia vote on the same guy, but nobody has really thought much of it until now, when you can't really trust anyone. I know that you voted Cav first, n1k0 likely followed to ensure a lynch, and it was n1k0's vote that broke the 3 way tie. Could n1k0 have voted for LT instead? N1k0 voting for Cav or LT would result in a mislynch, so why Cav instead of LT? Several players expressed having a strong town read on Cav (myself included), so it makes more sense for mafia to go for the person who is less suspicious.
By the time you had voted for n1k0, he already had 3 votes on him, the best way for you to blend in, is to follow the town and vote for n1k0 since it's highly likely he will be lynched. Like I mentioned previously, your justification to vote for n1k0 was basically non-existant and you just jumped on the bandwagon.
If n1k0 and I were scum we had 2 votes to move. You think we would risk voting together to lynch a random town (Cavalinho) but not vote together to tie the votes and try to save a mafia?
I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him.
On February 27 2014 06:30 Valenius wrote: I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first.
I'm willing to point to a few things, there are responses that are easy to this, like if we linked ourselves d1, it would be too risky to vote together day 2 also. This just again stresses how terrible it would be for mafia to vote on the same person day 1.
Actually, my post was going to center around how far gone I feel the vote on n1k0 was by that point. Pretty much everyone has said they felt OnceKing's was a really strong case. Following this (before you/beneather/n1k0 voted) I felt it would have taken a miraculous case to get the votes switched around enough to get n1k0 off. The only other vote so far that day is on me, and i'm the other likely lynch for that day, so you two would pretty much have to move onto me to get any traction going.
The moment I flip green, both of you guys are under massive pressure due to the double vote on cav, and tehn double switch to me.
That's why I don't think flipping on to me was actually a viable play.
On February 27 2014 06:48 theDragoon wrote: I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him.
1) Where did you express that intent?
2) I think that explanation is something you just made up. You posted this following the vote on n1k0, why wouldn't you explain your mafia bait plan then? If you had that plan, why did you lie to town about your reasoning for voting on Valenius?
On February 22 2014 08:50 theDragoon wrote: I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right.
I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him.
You mention you wanted to bait votes on to me, yet in your post-day explanation of that event you stated you were confident i was scum, with no mention of baits:
On February 22 2014 08:50 theDragoon wrote: I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right.
On February 27 2014 06:30 Valenius wrote: I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first.
I'm willing to point to a few things, there are responses that are easy to this, like if we linked ourselves d1, it would be too risky to vote together day 2 also. This just again stresses how terrible it would be for mafia to vote on the same person day 1.
Actually, my post was going to center around how far gone I feel the vote on n1k0 was by that point. Pretty much everyone has said they felt OnceKing's was a really strong case. Following this (before you/beneather/n1k0 voted) I felt it would have taken a miraculous case to get the votes switched around enough to get n1k0 off. The only other vote so far that day is on me, and i'm the other likely lynch for that day, so you two would pretty much have to move onto me to get any traction going.
The moment I flip green, both of you guys are under massive pressure due to the double vote on cav, and tehn double switch to me.
That's why I don't think flipping on to me was actually a viable play.
That's exactly what I'm saying though. Two mafia voting together on day 1 is just bad mafia play (especially when there's only two mafia!). It means they cannot vote together to mislynch someone without looking scummy. If I was scumteam with n1k0 and our votes were split day 1, we'd be able to moved our vote onto you Valenius.
Basically, if you think I'm mafia then you think I did a really bad play day 1 so I couldn't make a play day 2. But, you also think I did a really bad play day 1 with no meaningful gain. I mean Cavalinho even said he thought I was town (and also an asshole).
On February 27 2014 06:48 theDragoon wrote: I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him.
1) Where did you express that intent?
2) I think that explanation is something you just made up. You posted this following the vote on n1k0, why wouldn't you explain your mafia bait plan then? If you had that plan, why did you lie to town about your reasoning for voting on Valenius?
On February 22 2014 08:50 theDragoon wrote: I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right.
Read through my filter when Val asks me if I think majority on n1k0 is better than voting on him.
How can I use my bait if I explain it first? Also, that situation did not happen so I didn't want to tell town about it just in case it might be useful later on. For the record I did not lie about staying on Val, I stand by that statement and it's still one of the reasons why I'm tempted to switch onto him. Right now you're looking a lot more scummy than Val so my vote's on you. If you really are town I need you to convince me that Val is mafia, we are so close to winning this and I don't want to make the mistake of voting for you.
On February 27 2014 07:03 theDragoon wrote: How can I use my bait if I explain it first? Also, that situation did not happen so I didn't want to tell town about it just in case it might be useful later on. For the record I did not lie about staying on Val, I stand by that statement and it's still one of the reasons why I'm tempted to switch onto him. Right now you're looking a lot more scummy than Val so my vote's on you. If you really are town I need you to convince me that Val is mafia, we are so close to winning this and I don't want to make the mistake of voting for you.
However I'm not convinced right now.
1) If you had explained your bait in that post it would have affected nothing. Your post was after the lynch, so explaining it doesn't matter.
2) So if I understand this, you gave town a false/incomplete reason for your vote because revealing it later might somehow be helpful? Can you describe a situation where it would be helpful? I cannot :s
3) Ok he did reference changing his vote here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20840967 But that still makes me feel this bait thing is something he just made up. Like you yourself said, how can you use the bait if you explain it first? How is that even a bait if you told everyone you would switch your votes?
--
theDragoon you asked me to spend more time convincing you that Valenius is mafia. You provided some one-line reasons for why you voted for me. In the post above, I put links to the recent posts which you said you didn't read. Inside those posts are defenses. If you are town and find my arguments are convincing and believe I am town, you should believe Valenius is mafia by process of elimination. So you have some arguments of mine to work with.
On February 27 2014 06:30 Valenius wrote: I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first.
I'm willing to point to a few things, there are responses that are easy to this, like if we linked ourselves d1, it would be too risky to vote together day 2 also. This just again stresses how terrible it would be for mafia to vote on the same person day 1.
Actually, my post was going to center around how far gone I feel the vote on n1k0 was by that point. Pretty much everyone has said they felt OnceKing's was a really strong case. Following this (before you/beneather/n1k0 voted) I felt it would have taken a miraculous case to get the votes switched around enough to get n1k0 off. The only other vote so far that day is on me, and i'm the other likely lynch for that day, so you two would pretty much have to move onto me to get any traction going.
The moment I flip green, both of you guys are under massive pressure due to the double vote on cav, and tehn double switch to me.
That's why I don't think flipping on to me was actually a viable play.
That's exactly what I'm saying though. Two mafia voting together on day 1 is just bad mafia play (especially when there's only two mafia!). It means they cannot vote together to mislynch someone without looking scummy. If I was scumteam with n1k0 and our votes were split day 1, we'd be able to moved our vote onto you Valenius.
Basically, if you think I'm mafia then you think I did a really bad play day 1 so I couldn't make a play day 2. But, you also think I did a really bad play day 1 with no meaningful gain. I mean Cavalinho even said he thought I was town (and also an asshole).
Sigh, you're making this too hard. I want to be asleep right now, tucked up in bed confident that i've got the right person, this is just leading to an anxious night ahead
Okay.
Your vote was on Cav first, then followed by n1k0. IF we're going by the assumption that you are both mafia, then it's either an attempt to stick together to distance yourselves through arguing you're close.. hopefully you get what i mean. My attempts at putting that eloquently failed. Option 2, it's a mis-coordianted play where n1k0 had no idea and blindly followed you.
Option 3, you aren't scum.
I'm looking through dragoon's filter again, and im pulling out a few things when viwing him as if he's confirmed scum.. whether thats right idk.
At this stage, I quite honestly don't know. Amiko you've made decent arguments over the last page, and i'm hoping to god that you're not completely playing me which is a possibility. I'm trying not to factor that into anything, but it's obviously at the edge of my mind.
The biggest plus for you so far today, is that you are trying to look at dragoon as well. I know we've both kinda tunnelled on each other. I don't know about you, but i feel it was kinda set off by LT's pre-day post, where he focused on both of us, leading us to be on the defensive right from the start. That's the way i viewed it anyway, i was trying to defend myself (and then scum read you). Part of that's due to my previous reads, but i think it's partly because i had dragoon as town pre-d4, and LT didn't mention him as a likely scum.
To me, these things feel unlikely enough to me that they should be discounted. Based on the information I have now, I would see n1k0 calling someone godfather (when all signs point to no godfather) as mafia misdirection.
I don't know much about mafia game setups and the likelihood of certain roles appearing but from the point of view of mafia Amiko, it does look like a slip on n1k0's part. And it was really scummy how he calls you godfather then says you're town.
On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote: I honestly do disagree with your entire reasoning behind this. If I were mafia, i'd be trying to blend in, not kill the person who's only raised a kind of case on me. As for "meritorious enough to require answering", I answered them because i felt they were scummy. I've gone through in great detail my thought process behind his posts. Beneather tried to point some suspicion at me too, but his post was absolutely worthless so it didn't require a response.
I don’t think anyone brought a strong case against my day 2, but it is generally perceived as scummy because I didn’t commit strongly to my reads. I agree with Valenius’ comment on Beneather here, and it is the main reason for my day 2 play.
In my mind day 2 was picking between three people – Beneather, Valenius, n1k0. N1k0 contributed a few posts but almost all were backpacking. Valenius had an actual case brought against him and was responding. Beneather contributed two posts in two days that had any substance.
I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went- When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads. When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads. We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful.
We know now that Beneather was probably idle, but if he was lurking mafia I think it was realistic to think if he became a focus, he would try to throw up some kind of defense. We didn’t get any real pressure on him and we paid for it. He became a liability for town nothing to read town or scum and a potential modkill. When we lynched Beneather we had no meaningful discussion because there was nothing to meaningfully discuss.
I get that you would both be more comfortable if I joined the voted on n1k0 earlier. But, Beneather's contributions were so empty that I felt we should to try to get information from someone who had somehow gotten by without posting substantively. My posts throughout the day reflect that and I think it was good play.
I think at that point many of us gave up on Beneather, he didn't even bother posting on day 3 so I don't even think we could've gotten much from him day 2.
On February 27 2014 07:27 Valenius wrote: At this stage, I quite honestly don't know. Amiko you've made decent arguments over the last page, and i'm hoping to god that you're not completely playing me which is a possibility. I'm trying not to factor that into anything, but it's obviously at the edge of my mind.
The biggest plus for you so far today, is that you are trying to look at dragoon as well. I know we've both kinda tunnelled on each other. I don't know about you, but i feel it was kinda set off by LT's pre-day post, where he focused on both of us, leading us to be on the defensive right from the start. That's the way i viewed it anyway, i was trying to defend myself (and then scum read you). Part of that's due to my previous reads, but i think it's partly because i had dragoon as town pre-d4, and LT didn't mention him as a likely scum.
I know what you mean by option 1, that's the WIFOM argument I'm referring to (Mafia wanted to portray themselves as a pair so they could argue they wouldn't do that). I think there is a good case to discount that option one, though, because whereas n1k0 piggybacked onto me, I don't think I did anything to encourage the idea we were together. I did question n1k0, even pointed out that I didn't feel I had questioned him enough in my post n1 and started trying to get information out of him.
And yeah I mean I have to consider theDragoon as more scummy given his play today. I'm not going to pretend I liked your arguments yesterday (MAFIA SANDWICH) but I just really do not like the quality or depth of theDragoon's play today.
On February 27 2014 07:32 theDragoon wrote: I don't know much about mafia game setups and the likelihood of certain roles appearing but from the point of view of mafia Amiko, it does look like a slip on n1k0's part. And it was really scummy how he calls you godfather then says you're town.
To read this as scum you have to decide there is no cop, but there is a godfather (a mafia role that exists to counteract investigative roles like cops). Okay, pretend you ignore this logical hurdle or decide maybe it's just a weird twist.
Then, you have to decide that it's more likely n1k0 would name his one mafia partner (linking us, again, and even in the same post where he is voting with me) as the person who the cop shouldn't check. I mean I feel like n1k0 would have changed his name to aniko if he could have he was tying himself up with me so much. I keep making the same point I guess, but that just makes no sense for mafia to do.
On February 21 2014 02:40 theDragoon wrote: @Lord Tolkien As I stated previously, I have a slight scum read on N1k0, however I have a stronger scum read on Valenius, which is why I voted him. Also, until after I read OnceKing's case against N1k0, I didn't really notice how he mostly piggybacked onto other people's posts without contributing anything original and this does make him look very scummy. I can see that being poor town play and analytical skills or just straight up mafia play.
If N1k0 gets lynched today and flips red this makes Valenius more likely to be town because he is the first player on day 2 to vote N1k0. There’s no way a mafia Valenius would initiate the lynch on his teammate who has already gotten suspicions from everyone. If Valenius is mafia, then his vote would be cast later after he sees N1k0’s situation unsalvageable. But if N1k0 flips green, then Valenius is definitely the best lynch target on day 3.
Mod question: If Beneather doesn’t post and gets modkilled does he still get replaced?
This is the post that I keep coming back to. Every time I've read it I've viewed it as very very townie, and just skipped past it. Looking at it closely, the thing that's standing out to me is the post time. It's at the stage where I believe n1k0 was basically dead, which i've tried to grill Amiko over regarding his vote during this period. It really is a very good covering-your-ass post, which is why i haven't properly looked at it before, and it's one of the reasons i put you in my town pile. However, looking at it purely as a scummy view, it pockets me and diverts attention away from yourself, whilst leaving me open as a lynch target.
kk. i'm going to bed.
Amiko: If you're scum, then truly well played. It may be that i'm actually just a really horrible mafia player, but if you're scum you've played this last day well enough to convince me that you're more townie than theDragoon at this stage. A lot of the early play you're right with, a lot of it is wifom, so it could be a really good play, or a chance coincidence. If you're town, then I hope you make the right decision, and you deserve all the plaudits for the win.
theDragoon: If you're scum, then thank god. If you're town, then I am exceptionally sorry. I really am.
ebwop: also apologies to every other town still following this thread if ive fucked it up.
Amiko, if you do end up making the wrong decision, i wont hold blame you, although i'll be fuming on the inside. this last day has been impossible for me to play, been anxious to get the right vote for too long, it's draining.
On February 27 2014 07:27 Valenius wrote: At this stage, I quite honestly don't know. Amiko you've made decent arguments over the last page, and i'm hoping to god that you're not completely playing me which is a possibility. I'm trying not to factor that into anything, but it's obviously at the edge of my mind.
The biggest plus for you so far today, is that you are trying to look at dragoon as well. I know we've both kinda tunnelled on each other. I don't know about you, but i feel it was kinda set off by LT's pre-day post, where he focused on both of us, leading us to be on the defensive right from the start. That's the way i viewed it anyway, i was trying to defend myself (and then scum read you). Part of that's due to my previous reads, but i think it's partly because i had dragoon as town pre-d4, and LT didn't mention him as a likely scum.
I will mention (though this runs against me being able to convince theDragoon you are mafia) that I feel if you were mafia your best play would have been to say sorry I have to sleep and disappeared a few hours ago. You have not. I feel your best play would be to be more aggressive on me at this time, and you have not.
It's possible that theDragoon's comments have just been a lot worse today for some reason, and it's possible that you want to secure your hold on theDragoon. But I have to see theDragoon as increasingly mafia. I don't know I'll keep fighting for as long as you are up.
I have to go out for about 2 hours so I'll be available for a couple of hours before the deadline. Whoever is the town player out of you two, please make the right choice and vote for the real mafia. If there's a vote for me then it's very likely that we will lose and the one to vote me first is the real mafia. I've played for the town right from the start of the game and it's really a surprise for me to last this long since several players have read me as town throughout various points in the game. I think the only reason why I'm alive and didn't get night killed was because I was the only vote on Valenius, and mafia could try to use that against me. I'm not exactly a strong player but I really tried to put in the effort to help town. I will be really disappointed to see us lose this game, and if we lose then we totally deserve it since the mafia will have outplayed us.
I really hope that when I get back, the town player left over doesn't make the mistake of voting for me. Please consider what each player has done throughout the game to make your decision. I've tried looking through everything during day 4 trying to find the right answer and I don't even know if I succeeded. I'll be back in time to answer any questions. See you guys later!
OH GOD okay well you made the right decision. I just have to make sure you made the right decision for town
theDragoon, WELCOME TO THE SANDWICH.
theDragoon, Here's what I need from you:
First, dude, read the posts that came before your vote and try to give me some responses on that.
Second, from my view, if you are town then Valenius is mafia. If he is mafia, I think he would only move his vote if he felt he had a better chance of changing my mind (which had been mostly presenting him as mafia) than I had of changing yours (which I feel like wasn't getting us anywhere).
Third, although I'm happy Valenius is convinced enough I am town to change his vote, I admit I don't feel this post is as damning of you (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20876925), I suppose because I also felt he was probably town based on the n1k0 vote. Even so, I'm going to reread the posts around it and I'd appreciate if you respond to the post if only to give me more reads
So I would like your response on it but to be honest I think I will need to reread your filter a little to figure out why it matters
On February 27 2014 08:15 theDragoon wrote: I have to go out for about 2 hours so I'll be available for a couple of hours before the deadline. Whoever is the town player out of you two, please make the right choice and vote for the real mafia. If there's a vote for me then it's very likely that we will lose and the one to vote me first is the real mafia. I've played for the town right from the start of the game and it's really a surprise for me to last this long since several players have read me as town throughout various points in the game. I think the only reason why I'm alive and didn't get night killed was because I was the only vote on Valenius, and mafia could try to use that against me. I'm not exactly a strong player but I really tried to put in the effort to help town. I will be really disappointed to see us lose this game, and if we lose then we totally deserve it since the mafia will have outplayed us.
I really hope that when I get back, the town player left over doesn't make the mistake of voting for me. Please consider what each player has done throughout the game to make your decision. I've tried looking through everything during day 4 trying to find the right answer and I don't even know if I succeeded. I'll be back in time to answer any questions. See you guys later!
theDragoon when you get back please start posting responses raised above. Valenius is going to bed so I am not going to get anything more from him until the vote and the game will basically hinge on my responses to what you raise.
It is very important that you give me as much information as possible. Right now I feel that you have done the most scummy stuff today - you seem to ignore some posts, provide only short answers to things. In addition to the above, I want you to justify your play today. In addition to the earlier points, here's a few more to work with:
Why did you vote earlier when you will be back later in the day? Why did you vote while recognizing there were new posts you didn't read? You raised some points in your post for why you felt I was mafia and I posted some responses. Why didn't you use time today to respond to those and decide if you still felt I was mafia?
I guess if Valenius is asleep and you are heading out for a few hours I will take some time to myself. Maybe get a sandwich...
Okay I'm back and just read through the stuff I missed. Really disappointed to see Valenius vote for me. I was leaning towards Amiko being mafia and seeing that Val would have voted for him as well gave me confidence that the choice was right. Having said that, however I really like how Amiko responded to all the pressure and he definitely made the right plays that town would make in this situation.
Looking at Val's justification for voting for me and his play throughout the day I'm led to believe he baited me into voting for the town player (Amiko). I really don't see how he got this from my post:
It really is a very good covering-your-ass post, which is why i haven't properly looked at it before, and it's one of the reasons i put you in my town pile. However, looking at it purely as a scummy view, it pockets me and diverts attention away from yourself, whilst leaving me open as a lynch target.
In my post I basically answered someone's (i forgot who) question on what would it mean if n1k0 flipped red, which I gave quite a bit of thought to and I really thought I was right about it. Unfortunately I'm very sure that Val used my analysis on the implications of n1k0's flip to get the vast majority of town to think he was green. I really regret not pursuing Val further after the flip and I think it was the biggest mistake that town made. Day 3 was a wasted day since we thought Val was town and Beneather got lynched, he would have been modkilled anyway so we completely wasted a day on that. We completely fell for his plan to gain town cred by voting on n1k0 first. He fooled me into thinking voting for Amiko was right.
About my poor play today, I really don't want to make excuses but I had a 3 hour class at 830am and one hour commute to get back home. But whatever, I played poorly today and fell into Val's trap.
@Amiko I voted earlier because I was leaning on you being mafia and I read that Val was going to vote you, so I had the confidence that I was right about the vote. Seeing the rest of the day play out though, I was completely wrong.
Why I voted before reading the new posts? I had already typed something up and by the time I realized there were new posts out I didn't want to waste all that effort. It was a mistake though.
What do you mean about the third question?
Also, can you direct me to exactly what you want me to respond to? I'm having a hard time finding exactly what you want me to look at.
On February 27 2014 07:32 theDragoon wrote: I don't know much about mafia game setups and the likelihood of certain roles appearing but from the point of view of mafia Amiko, it does look like a slip on n1k0's part. And it was really scummy how he calls you godfather then says you're town.
To read this as scum you have to decide there is no cop, but there is a godfather (a mafia role that exists to counteract investigative roles like cops). Okay, pretend you ignore this logical hurdle or decide maybe it's just a weird twist.
Then, you have to decide that it's more likely n1k0 would name his one mafia partner (linking us, again, and even in the same post where he is voting with me) as the person who the cop shouldn't check. I mean I feel like n1k0 would have changed his name to aniko if he could have he was tying himself up with me so much. I keep making the same point I guess, but that just makes no sense for mafia to do.
I'm still very new to the whole mafia game (forum and IRL) so I wouldn't have guessed that having a cop means there would be a godfather, but what you're saying makes perfect sense.
I was just really eager to find the true mafia between the two of you, and it definitely is a scummy thing for n1k0 to do. Now that I think about it, it makes n1k0 look scummy (which he is). It wouldn't make sense to out his teammate like that but there's the possibility that he's mind gaming us but thinking that way doesn't lead anywhere. Perhaps he did it to try to implicate you?
I have some general comments and ideas I want to work through, but I think this is the important one for now and I'd appreciate your comments. I want to post this because I feel your responses on it may be more helpful - tell me if you think something is logically correct or incorrect and why. Sorry in advance, though, this may not be as composed as some of my other posts.
Prior to today I expected to vote Valenius. To go a step further, I think I telegraphed fairly clearly that Valenius was my likely vote. Similarly I feel Valenius telegraphed that I was his likely vote.
So, if the expectation is Valenius & I voting for each other- If you are mafia you feel you are in a good position - if we cross our votes, you win. If Valenius is mafia, he is uncertain. He only wins if you vote on me over him. He has to convince you that I am mafia. Well, I can say that, but honestly it doesn't give me much. If Valenius is town, he still needs to convince you that I am mafia to win. If you are town, your priority is figuring out which of us is more scummy.
The telegraphed votes do feel relevant, though, to whether mafia Valenius would switch his vote. In short, mafia Valenius has to decide: Does he have a better shot at convincing me you are mafia? Or does he have a better shot at convincing you that I'm mafia?
I am not sure, but I think he would conclude the second (convince you). At that point in the game, we had all indicated our reads were sort of up for grabs. But, you had indicated a preference for voting for me, whereas I had indicated a preference for voting for Valenius. I had even said I would probably vote him even if he voted for you. So, I think mafia Valenius would have probably felt you were the easier one to fool.
Yet, he leaves me with something that is really townfeeling. He's moved his vote off me, which I know is a townsided play (because I'm town).
At the same time, it's frustrating that he does so in his departure post. Neither of us can press him on his actions any more because he's gone to sleep, so my final impression is a town move.
This is how I'm thinking right now, I don't have a specific question on it for you but if you comment on it maybe you can give me new something to think about.
On February 27 2014 07:32 theDragoon wrote: I don't know much about mafia game setups and the likelihood of certain roles appearing but from the point of view of mafia Amiko, it does look like a slip on n1k0's part. And it was really scummy how he calls you godfather then says you're town.
To read this as scum you have to decide there is no cop, but there is a godfather (a mafia role that exists to counteract investigative roles like cops). Okay, pretend you ignore this logical hurdle or decide maybe it's just a weird twist.
Then, you have to decide that it's more likely n1k0 would name his one mafia partner (linking us, again, and even in the same post where he is voting with me) as the person who the cop shouldn't check. I mean I feel like n1k0 would have changed his name to aniko if he could have he was tying himself up with me so much. I keep making the same point I guess, but that just makes no sense for mafia to do.
I'm still very new to the whole mafia game (forum and IRL) so I wouldn't have guessed that having a cop means there would be a godfather, but what you're saying makes perfect sense.
I was just really eager to find the true mafia between the two of you, and it definitely is a scummy thing for n1k0 to do. Now that I think about it, it makes n1k0 look scummy (which he is). It wouldn't make sense to out his teammate like that but there's the possibility that he's mind gaming us but thinking that way doesn't lead anywhere. Perhaps he did it to try to implicate you?
Just to clarify, it's not that having cop means there is a godfather. It's just, if there is no cop in the game, then, there is probably no godfather in the game. There can be games with cops without godfathers, though.
On February 27 2014 06:38 theDragoon wrote: @Amiko You said you were pressuring n1k0 during night 1 and here's something that I found a bit suspicious.
3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently. If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). Where do you think mafia would tend to vote?
We know for sure that one mafia voted on Cav, when you ask him if he thinks you're town why do you think at least 2 mafia voted for someone other than Cav? We know there's only 2 mafia or else the game would be over already. This part here sounds like you're trying to pin mafia on anyone other than you two. Why do you ask n1k0 where he thinks mafia would tend to vote? Since we know he's mafia, he'll answer that question pointing to the town players. If you're mafia it makes sense to ask this question to n1k0 since it helps point town towards the wrong people.
Also, I'm pressuring you more than Valenius because there's more evidence right now pointing to you as the mafia, I want you to defend yourself and convince me that you are not mafia. I want to make the right choice here and instead you're redirecting everything being thrown at you towards me.
theDragoon, I responded to at least 2-3 of your points in the posts prior to yours which you said you didn't read.
On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: N1k0 discouraging cop checks on Amiko despite labeling him as likely to be godfather but still calls him town
On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: Amiko's day 2 play was shady and his hesitant to vote for n1k0 could mean he was waiting to see if he can salvage the situation
On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: Amiko was trying to gather info night 1 for a more educated night kill despite Robik's warning that it might help mafia
On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: Amiko and n1k0 both voted for Cav day 1, nobody really caught on until day 4 so it was a risk worth taking
THIS LOGIC IS BAD. If n1k0 and I are mafia, we have no idea who will catch onto it or not when we vote together. It was a needless risk where little was gained and it makes me look bad whichever day it is raised.
---
Valenius is going to sleep soon so we should be talking with him, as town I have to make a case that you are more mafia than I am because I know I am town. If you are town your job right now is to convince him I am mafia.
@Amiko Ok, I think this is the post you are referring to, I thought I already posted something about this. I might've closed the tab mid-post.
N1k0 discouraging cop checks on Amiko despite labeling him as likely to be godfather but still calls him town
So If I understand correctly, your defense is, given the available roles there's a very little chance that there is a godfather because we know there is no cop and that n1k0 was saying all this is to misdirect the town? I can see it as misdirection from n1k0 since we know he's scum, but I found it really shady that he calls you godfather in the same post that says you're town. If the intent was misdirection then it's clearly worked.
Amiko's day 2 play was shady and his hesitant to vote for n1k0 could mean he was waiting to see if he can salvage the situation
I get that you wanted to get more info from Beneather before posting, but there's no denying that it makes you look scummy for holding your vote as long as you did because it might have given mafia a chance to switch the votes to Valenius. I think most of us ignored Beneather because he had no hope in him posting anything valuable.
Amiko was trying to gather info night 1 for a more educated night kill despite Robik's warning that it might help mafia
Amiko and n1k0 both voted for Cav day 1, nobody really caught on until day 4 so it was a risk worth taking
Ok, call it bad logic or whatever, I'm not exactly that great of a mafia player, which is why I got lynched day 1 my last game. I do agree that it would have been poor mafia play if someone caught on early, but I was just trying to entertain all possibilities.
I don't know which one of you two is mafia so I probably seeing evidence where there really isn't. I just wanted to get the right guy and your filter had a lot more suspicious things than Val's did. But right now after his vote switch on me and the really poor reasoning behind it, I'm very very sure that he's scum. He's played me twice this game and if we lose then he totally deserves it. He played a hell of a mafia game. The first time with the first vote on n1k0, and the second time was baiting me into voting for you.
Ok answer this post from earlier. I am questioning you on your comment that what you did was bait.
As I indicate in this post, I do not understand how it can be bait- Here is the summary, see the post below for more:
(1) First you say you can't explain it or it won't be bait. However, the post we are looking at came after the votes, so it's after mafia fell for the bait or didn't.
(2) You explained prior to the vote that you would change your vote (I didn't notice it before), so I don't understand - how is your post even bait if mafia knows you will switch your vote?
(3) You provided an explanation after the vote which didn't mention the idea of bait. Your justification is that it might maybe raising it later on would be useful. To me, it seems like either you lied to town then when explaining your vote, or you lied now. Can you give me an example situation where that would be useful?
(4) Whether you are mafia or town I don't know why you even brought that up, it is just WEIRD.
On February 27 2014 07:03 theDragoon wrote: How can I use my bait if I explain it first? Also, that situation did not happen so I didn't want to tell town about it just in case it might be useful later on. For the record I did not lie about staying on Val, I stand by that statement and it's still one of the reasons why I'm tempted to switch onto him. Right now you're looking a lot more scummy than Val so my vote's on you. If you really are town I need you to convince me that Val is mafia, we are so close to winning this and I don't want to make the mistake of voting for you.
However I'm not convinced right now.
1) If you had explained your bait in that post it would have affected nothing. Your post was after the lynch, so explaining it doesn't matter.
2) So if I understand this, you gave town a false/incomplete reason for your vote because revealing it later might somehow be helpful? Can you describe a situation where it would be helpful? I cannot :s
3) Ok he did reference changing his vote here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20840967 But that still makes me feel this bait thing is something he just made up. Like you yourself said, how can you use the bait if you explain it first? How is that even a bait if you told everyone you would switch your votes?
--
theDragoon you asked me to spend more time convincing you that Valenius is mafia. You provided some one-line reasons for why you voted for me. In the post above, I put links to the recent posts which you said you didn't read. Inside those posts are defenses. If you are town and find my arguments are convincing and believe I am town, you should believe Valenius is mafia by process of elimination. So you have some arguments of mine to work with.
So, if the expectation is Valenius & I voting for each other- If you are mafia you feel you are in a good position - if we cross our votes, you win.
That makes perfect sense.
If Valenius is mafia, he is uncertain. He only wins if you vote on me over him. He has to convince you that I am mafia.
I think he may have done just that, After I saw his vote I was very confident into voting for you.
If you are town, your priority is figuring out which of us is more scummy.
I think I have been trying to do that all of day 4, I've presented things for both cases of mafia Amiko and mafia Valenius
The telegraphed votes do feel relevant, though, to whether mafia Valenius would switch his vote. In short, mafia Valenius has to decide: Does he have a better shot at convincing me you are mafia? Or does he have a better shot at convincing you that I'm mafia?
I think his purpose today was to determine exactly that, hence the early vote on you. He wanted to see if I followed suit and wanted to gauge your reaction. His switch onto me means he found that he had a better chance of convincing you that I am mafia.
It's all up to you Amiko, I'm nearly 100% convinced that Valenius is mafia, I've had my eye on him since day 2 and I really regret thinking I was right about him being town after the n1k0 flip.
On February 27 2014 11:12 theDragoon wrote: Ok, call it bad logic or whatever, I'm not exactly that great of a mafia player, which is why I got lynched day 1 my last game. I do agree that it would have been poor mafia play if someone caught on early, but I was just trying to entertain all possibilities.
Sorry if I'm being mean, I didn't mean it that way I just was frantic and worried. Whether you are town or mafia I didn't feel like your play was bad, it's just that your comments today really threw me for a loop. I mean I misread Cavalinho, started a case on Robik, was slow voting on n1k0 day 2, and then voted Beneather. I think these were justified, but I still think I have made some mistakes through this game.
This decision is particularly hard because if you were mafia, I feel like you didn't need to post your vote on me. It's only thanks to that comment I was able to convince one town to remove their vote from me, I just don't know whether that town is you or Valenius yet.
I've got about 35 minutes left so there's still a little time to work through this.
On February 27 2014 11:17 Amiko wrote: Ok answer this post from earlier. I am questioning you on your comment that what you did was bait.
As I indicate in this post, I do not understand how it can be bait- Here is the summary, see the post below for more:
(1) First you say you can't explain it or it won't be bait. However, the post we are looking at came after the votes, so it's after mafia fell for the bait or didn't.
(2) You explained prior to the vote that you would change your vote (I didn't notice it before), so I don't understand - how is your post even bait if mafia knows you will switch your vote?
(3) You provided an explanation after the vote which didn't mention the idea of bait. Your justification is that it might maybe raising it later on would be useful. To me, it seems like either you lied to town then when explaining your vote, or you lied now. Can you give me an example situation where that would be useful?
(4) Whether you are mafia or town I don't know why you even brought that up, it is just WEIRD.
On February 27 2014 07:03 theDragoon wrote: How can I use my bait if I explain it first? Also, that situation did not happen so I didn't want to tell town about it just in case it might be useful later on. For the record I did not lie about staying on Val, I stand by that statement and it's still one of the reasons why I'm tempted to switch onto him. Right now you're looking a lot more scummy than Val so my vote's on you. If you really are town I need you to convince me that Val is mafia, we are so close to winning this and I don't want to make the mistake of voting for you.
However I'm not convinced right now.
1) If you had explained your bait in that post it would have affected nothing. Your post was after the lynch, so explaining it doesn't matter.
2) So if I understand this, you gave town a false/incomplete reason for your vote because revealing it later might somehow be helpful? Can you describe a situation where it would be helpful? I cannot :s
3) Ok he did reference changing his vote here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20840967 But that still makes me feel this bait thing is something he just made up. Like you yourself said, how can you use the bait if you explain it first? How is that even a bait if you told everyone you would switch your votes?
--
theDragoon you asked me to spend more time convincing you that Valenius is mafia. You provided some one-line reasons for why you voted for me. In the post above, I put links to the recent posts which you said you didn't read. Inside those posts are defenses. If you are town and find my arguments are convincing and believe I am town, you should believe Valenius is mafia by process of elimination. So you have some arguments of mine to work with.
1) I thought I might have a use for it later
2) It does look like bad logic but if mafia were desperate enough to save their own (it would've been a terrible move) they might do it. I probably just didn't think it through.
3) At the time I thought it might be useful but given how day 3 played out there was no changing the course of events that day.
I understand it looks very scummy and if you think that makes me mafia over all the things I've done for town then go ahead and vote for me. It just means you've made the biggest mistake for town and we'd lose because of it.
I want to ask you, do you think Val's justification to vote for me is solid? Would it be something you agree with? That's pretty much the only reason he's voted for me, if he really thought I was mafia I'm sure there would be a lot more evidence that proves it.
On February 27 2014 11:24 theDragoon wrote: I think his purpose today was to determine exactly that, hence the early vote on you. He wanted to see if I followed suit and wanted to gauge your reaction. His switch onto me means he found that he had a better chance of convincing you that I am mafia.
See this is the thing which I feel makes it more likely that this was not a play by Valenius.
Your post prior to the vote did indicate you were going to vote. But, Valenius didn't know when you were going to vote. And, he could only try to win me over by swapping votes if there was reason to do so, and there wasn't reason until you voted.
To be fair, Valenius did indicate he was looking at the times of posts (in his last post he refers to your vote time and he mentioned comparing the vote times of me and n1k0). It's possible that he guessed you would be back in the afternoon and put up a post. Yet even then, if your post had been stronger my response might have been to try to convince you rather than him, which I think is a fair assumption by him given how I was reading him as mafia.
I'm just saying, without your vote and my frantic response, he was basically locked into the vote on me.
(I mean Valenius could pop up in the next 30 minutes, if so please show up now cause I have some questions for you)
In other words, I can see Valenius making the vote swap play to win me over. But, I don't think he could have reliably expected to be able to make that play because it needed you to make a post that was weird/scummy enough to justify him changing his vote and me seeing you as scum.
--
I could definitely be wrong on this, and if so sorry to everyone. Please forgive me because I am certainly trying as hard as I can on this one. @theDragoon I am not done reading, keep on posting, I could change my mind. I will keep reading and responding.
If Valenius is scum then I don't know what to say except wow, gg.
On February 27 2014 11:38 theDragoon wrote: @Amiko
I want to ask you, do you think Val's justification to vote for me is solid? Would it be something you agree with? That's pretty much the only reason he's voted for me, if he really thought I was mafia I'm sure there would be a lot more evidence that proves it.
Yes and no. I mean, I don't feel that the last post from him put any sort of strong case on you. To me your conclusion that he was town was totally legit, it's one I reached myself. I don't find the timing to be that persuasive. The thing is, I do feel like your weird play in the last day (your bait with explanation, or late explanation for something that is different than your prior explanation, your non responsiveness to defenses yet asking me to defend, your summary vote post) felt like weird plays. I keep using the word weird because it's like, if you are lying about the bait, why would you? If you did miss my responses, why would you?
Maybe I should see that as weighing for you as town. In other words, by that logic I raised a second case on you that I do not feel is strong, so Valenius shouldn't have switched his vote (because my case was not compelling enough).
I think this is actually the best post you made tonight and if anything is going to convince me it's probably that. I'm going to reread my case on you and decide how I feel on it.
In other words, I can see Valenius making the vote swap play to win me over. But, I don't think he could have reliably expected to be able to make that play because it needed you to make a post that was weird/scummy enough to justify him changing his vote and me seeing you as scum.
That's the thing though, his reason to vote for me wasn't even a new post. It was a post I made on day 2.
If you're really 100% certain for voting for me then all I have to say is gg. We fucking lost.
This is stupid but I think I'm actually going to quote my own posts and criticize them LOL
On February 27 2014 06:10 Amiko wrote: Valenius, theDragoon's vote should be really convincing to you that he is mafia over me. Although you felt more scummy, I have to conclude he is mafia based on that post and I will not bother trying to convince him at this point.
I really wish I had not said this. On the one hand as a town in LYLO the only way I can win is to convince the town voting on me not to. I did accomplish this (because you have moved your votes to each other). But, I indicated strongly to Valenius that I would vote for theDragoon so it makes it very tempting to swap onto me.
I guess from that I have to conclude that I can't really consider Valenius' swap onto me as indicative of towniness, even if it had a town result.
Time is about up. I am certainly not sure about the vote, it'd be nice to end the day strong but I'm not there.
theDragoon Mafia Goon N1k0 Mafia Goon OnceKing Town Medic (Protected Amiko n1, Lord Tolkien n2) Lord Tolkien Vanilla Town Valenius Vanilla Town Beneather Vanilla Town IAmRobik Vanilla Town Cavalinho Vanilla Town Amiko Vanilla Town
Thanks for playing all! A special thanks to the coaches marvellosity, iamperfection, Balla24, raynpelikoneet and to the cohosts Promethelax and suki! You may choose to post your coaching QT if you wish.
A few of these individuals have agreed to post their thoughts so be sure to stick around for postgame. The next newbie should open for signups within the next week for those that are interested.
marvellosity 02-18-2014 10:49 AM ET (US) I wouldn't worry too much about implicating yourself upon someone's death. People don't actually tend to read that much into it and you can always dismiss it as wifom.
If Robik is suspicious of you a lot AND you think he might be blue, he seems like a great choice for a shot.
At the day 2 start:
raynpelikoneet 02-19-2014 10:47 AM ET (US) Remember that mafia kills people usually for two reasons: 1) People who are strong analysts or on the right track 2) people they think are blue
raynpelikoneet 02-19-2014 10:27 PM ET (US) I am not saying anything you must absolutely do. I am just saying if you want to analyze the situation fully remember that mafia has ALWAYS a reason why they kill people they do. Now the reason can be whatever, but it's still there, noone just randomizes the night kills.
> I breadcrumbed being vanilla town in my first post. As Balla pointed out, this serves no purpose, but I felt clever at the time. lol.
> I felt posting this in the forum would be a mistake, but one reason I hesitated on n1k0 is that if I was mafia and saw one player call another player an asshole, I would go out of my way to keep those players in the game together so they could hurt the town atmosphere. So, I thought mafia would be less likely to vote Cavalinho
> I don't know if my vote analysis n1 was wrong or people just played weird. If that was wrong I would appreciate knowing it
> I am pleased with my play to the extent that I got a lynch off of me day 1 + 4. I don't think I my reads or leadership were that great, even if I did end up on the right person two times out of four.
> I think theDragoon played pretty consistently well throughout the game and would have probably won if his post voting me were done after Valenius went to sleep or with more backing. I don't think it was a terrible post, but I was so desperate that it was the only thing I could use and I just tried to get as much mileage out of it as possible.
This was my first forum game and a mixed experience for me. I was hoping that with 24 hours between posts, the game would provide more numerical analysis of votes, posts, phrasing, etc. But even with time I feel I often didn't post things quite how I intended, and there was very little analysis of that sort.
The constraints of forum mafia really came across in the last day... the brief period where all three living players were on at the same time was invaluable to me in moving away from my prior scumread on Valenius and convincing him I was town. I really feel that if our times hadn't lined up just so it'd probably be over.
I'll welcome any postgame comments from anyone on my play, I felt like I learned a lot through playing. Thanks again to all the hosts and coaches.
marvellosity 02-18-2014 10:49 AM ET (US) I wouldn't worry too much about implicating yourself upon someone's death. People don't actually tend to read that much into it and you can always dismiss it as wifom.
If Robik is suspicious of you a lot AND you think he might be blue, he seems like a great choice for a shot.
raynpelikoneet 02-19-2014 10:47 AM ET (US) Remember that mafia kills people usually for two reasons: 1) People who are strong analysts or on the right track 2) people they think are blue
raynpelikoneet 02-19-2014 10:27 PM ET (US) I am not saying anything you must absolutely do. I am just saying if you want to analyze the situation fully remember that mafia has ALWAYS a reason why they kill people they do. Now the reason can be whatever, but it's still there, noone just randomizes the night kills.
for what it's worth all those statements are true, even together
On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote: I don't really know how to start a good discussion d1 but here is at least a little information me I can volunteer: This will be my first forum mafia game! I have read a few threads but I do not recognize any of the players in this game. I have played epicmafia sometimes and have watched a few streams (pope, ring, ello, koibu). I am townsided this game. I will be up for another hour or so tonight, but usually I do not post early in the mornings here though (US MST).
So far I like that Beneather asked about the modpost for innocent child! Thanks for remembering.
When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote
Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one:
On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow
I don't know what this says about OnceKing's alignment, but the fact that he jumps on Amiko's post is pretty meh in my opinion. Amiko makes, what I consider to be, a good post and onceking focuses on the fact that it's long and has no content? Besides length, none of the posts really have content up to this point...I will say though that I like the fact that Onceking actually provided some conent here. Probably more towny, but still don't like this post overall:
On February 17 2014 05:05 OnceKing wrote: Alright guys, here's what I think -- Amiko is lookin' awfully shady.
Why? Look at his introductory post. What do you immediately note about it? Probably that it's huge (relative to the rest of the posts this game). So this by itself doesn't mean anything. But let's examine the contents of this post. Paragraph 1: Random stuff about not having played before, a random claim to be townie when no one asked, and other filler. Oh, and an excuse to be regularly inactive. This is all filler. Paragraph 2: Gives a list of inactives like three hours into the game and promises he'll be back after refusing to actually cast suspicion on anyone.
All in all, there's really no reason for this post to be so large and say so much fluff unless he's just trying to look helpful. ##VOTE Amiko
Not gonna quote the end of the page, but Cavalinho is securing himself as my top town read based off of how freely he is speaking with regard to the Amiko situation and how openly he is aligning himself with OnceKing. This doesn't mean that I think OnceKing is town, but I don't think that Cavalinho's logic would be so easy to follow if he was mafia.
On February 18 2014 00:26 IAmRobik wrote: Pages 4 and 5:
This post is super scummy:
On February 16 2014 12:21 Valenius wrote: Good evening I'm heading to bed now, UK Time (03:00), see you all in a bit!
This post is super towny, which is why I rescinded and said that he's town:
On February 16 2014 13:01 Cavalinho wrote:
On February 16 2014 12:57 IAmRobik wrote:
On February 16 2014 12:22 Cavalinho wrote: Let the games begin. I've been dying for the game to start.
dying ehh? Let the dying begin ##vote cavalinho
Lets take this outside, I don't even care. Hold my earrings.
##vote IAmRobik
Whereas some people find this post by Amiko to be scummy, I think the opposite. I like this post a lot:
On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote: I don't really know how to start a good discussion d1 but here is at least a little information me I can volunteer: This will be my first forum mafia game! I have read a few threads but I do not recognize any of the players in this game. I have played epicmafia sometimes and have watched a few streams (pope, ring, ello, koibu). I am townsided this game. I will be up for another hour or so tonight, but usually I do not post early in the mornings here though (US MST).
So far I like that Beneather asked about the modpost for innocent child! Thanks for remembering.
When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote
Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one:
On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow
I don't know what this says about OnceKing's alignment, but the fact that he jumps on Amiko's post is pretty meh in my opinion. Amiko makes, what I consider to be, a good post and onceking focuses on the fact that it's long and has no content? Besides length, none of the posts really have content up to this point...I will say though that I like the fact that Onceking actually provided some conent here. Probably more towny, but still don't like this post overall:
On February 17 2014 05:05 OnceKing wrote: Alright guys, here's what I think -- Amiko is lookin' awfully shady.
Why? Look at his introductory post. What do you immediately note about it? Probably that it's huge (relative to the rest of the posts this game). So this by itself doesn't mean anything. But let's examine the contents of this post. Paragraph 1: Random stuff about not having played before, a random claim to be townie when no one asked, and other filler. Oh, and an excuse to be regularly inactive. This is all filler. Paragraph 2: Gives a list of inactives like three hours into the game and promises he'll be back after refusing to actually cast suspicion on anyone.
All in all, there's really no reason for this post to be so large and say so much fluff unless he's just trying to look helpful. ##VOTE Amiko
Not gonna quote the end of the page, but Cavalinho is securing himself as my top town read based off of how freely he is speaking with regard to the Amiko situation and how openly he is aligning himself with OnceKing. This doesn't mean that I think OnceKing is town, but I don't think that Cavalinho's logic would be so easy to follow if he was mafia.
Should have stuck with this read
Agreed. I would have early pressured based on that post alone, but NOT valenius's that you quoted in there as well.
On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote: I don't really know how to start a good discussion d1 but here is at least a little information me I can volunteer: This will be my first forum mafia game! I have read a few threads but I do not recognize any of the players in this game. I have played epicmafia sometimes and have watched a few streams (pope, ring, ello, koibu). I am townsided this game. I will be up for another hour or so tonight, but usually I do not post early in the mornings here though (US MST).
So far I like that Beneather asked about the modpost for innocent child! Thanks for remembering.
When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote
The game begins with people voting right off the bat. There’s a light hearted atmosphere where people are poking at each other rather than discussing policy which is a good start for town.
Amiko comes in with an intro post that pretty much reads like a brand new townie player (because scum newbies are much more nervous about their play). OnceKing starts the game off by making a small case on how Amiko’s opening case is scummy. Cavalinho sheeps onto it. The back and forth between Amiko and Cavalinho is good as they are both making each other take stances.
The game starts to get sidetracked into setup discussion, blue actions. Valenius and Lord Tolkien are guilty of this and hopefully people will call them out on it. Discussing blue roles in the early game is a no-no. First off, it doesn’t move the game forward, and second people who talk about blues become prime targets for mafia to shoot in the night. If you’re blue, you just outed yourself. If you’re not, you’re wasting time discussing things when you should be scum hunting. I can’t be too critical of this because it’s a newbie game and people are just figuring things out, but the sooner people start scum hunting the better for town. The more experienced players should start herding the newer ones in this direction to promote a good town atmosphere.
Cavalinho posts a giant post on Amiko that basically boils down to ‘don’t cop check active players’. Someone should totally call him out on it. This is the kind of play that scum loves to hide behind.
And yeah OnceKing calls people out and says ‘let’s focus on scumhunting and less on setup’. Perfect, pro-town play. TheDragoon makes a decent entry into the thread. His buddying up with Cavalinho may or may not be good, it depends on his scum cases.
Amiko, Cavalinho and OnceKing start discussing with each other and from the feel of the conversation I think they’ll all come out looking pretty decent. Sharing thoughts openly, having clear explanations for things and scum hunting in general are all good town behaviours.
A bandwagon on LordTolkien seems to be forming and to be honest it’s actually not that bad of a wagon. LT hasn’t contributed much of value, has a lot of policy talk and is asking very general questions that make it sound like he’s not really pressuring people and he’s not being open with his reads. His list post of suspicions is weak content-wise as one of his reads is based on an unflipped player, and another is an OMGUS. Also, commenting on himself is not helpful and saying things like “if I were blue” is only going to get him in trouble.
LordTolkien’s best plan of action is to start really analyzing and picking out actions from other players that he finds scummy. This might be hard, because the first instinct is to defend oneself from attacks, but if that’s all he does he’s only going to look worse and worse.
theDragoon makes his first analysis post here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20817275 It starts off well, however the biggest problem with this post is that it doesn’t come to any conclusion. The ending line is: “He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet.” So he’s saying, I’d lynch him to see if he’s scum, but I don’t feel like lynching him. Really wonder if anyone is going to pick up on this wishy-washiness. Notice too that the post is fluffed up by blue speculation. This is a trend that was started by the townies so Dragoon actually blends in with this, but if you really look at the post he’s using a lot of words to say very little.
Fortunately for Mafia, LordTolkien seems to be content with speculation and at this point in the game it’s looking like he might be one of the main targets for the lynch.
OnceKing and LordTolkien start pointing fingers at each other. Their defenses are completely WIFOM (I’m mafia and such and such OR I’m town and such and such). LordTolkien’s counter-case on OnceKing is completely OMGUS, and it’s unreasonable to suggest that town “trade” LordTolkien for OnceKing, as either alignment. The better response would have been making a case on why OnceKing’s actions make him scum. If LT can’t do that, then he’ll just have to accept that OnceKing is town but on the wrong track – In which case, it’s up to LT to find scum and point OnceKing onto the right track.
Something that’s hard to remember when you first start playing Mafia is attacks are not personal. If someone is attacking you, it’s not their fault if they are wrong. After all, how can you expect them to be right, they have the same information you have (except they know their own alignment and not yours). If you’re attacked, the best response is to calmly explain why their points are invalid, and then provide a counter case on who you actually do think is scum.
LordTolkien seems to be a good candidate for lynch. Although he is saying a lot, too much of his words are trying to orchestrate lynches or ‘trades’, and not enough on actual analysis why people are scummy. Definitely see the pressure of having multiple people on him getting to him. The one thing going for him is that he is posting a LOT and being active, so maybe he might be able to gather his thoughts in time to avoid being lynched.
N1ko’s entry into the game is extremely scummy and should be jumped on right away. His first post is an excuse. His second post is a random town read with no explanation, but he’s also wishy-washy on it. It’s also very very strange that he would think IAmRobik is specifically VT but not know if the person is blue or red. That is, he thinks the person is town (VT), but he’s not sure if the person is scum-oriented (red) or town-oriented (blue). This sort of cognitive dissonance is very telling of a scum trying to weave his web.
Finally IAmRobik calls people out on policy talk and setup talk.. However it’s a bit late for that as the thread has already moved away from this discussion.
OnceKing calls n1ko out right away. There’s still a chance to gracefully get out. IamRobik also puts n1ko as #1 scum. N1ko’s next post where he outlines his reads on people actually feels pretty good though. He lays out reads and reasons for them, and votes his most scummy target. The only issue I have with his post is his line at the end ‘but I’m not too confident on it’. This may actually dispel some of the heat on him and point it towards the more scummy looking townies. As the game progresses, town seems to be all over the place. There isn’t any strong push towards one or even two people, which is the perfect atmosphere for scum. N1ko had some pressure on him but since his contribution post the weaker townies are now under heat. OnceKing did pick up on the wishy-washiness of N1ko’s read and I think it’s going to hurt N1ko in the long run. Still, he’s not in danger on D1 and maybe, maybe D2.
IAmRobik and OnceTown are obvious townies trying to figure out the game. Valenius could be up there in towniness, but his strange vote on IAmRobik doesn’t make sense. It’s pretty much an OMGUS, and the other people he’s ok with voting (LT and Amiko) he doesn’t seem to have very strong cases on. LordTolkien looks the worst at the moment by far, and I’m wondering if he’s making use of his coach to help steer him in the right direction.
The game moves forward with Amiko starting to provide some reads and Cavalinho going on an OMGUS rampage. He votes N1ko but he provides no explanation for it. He may be right, but there’s no weight to his words without evidence to back it up and his omgus on Amiko isn’t helping his image.
LordTolkien posts a big post with a bunch of names and it looks like he’s trying to contribute, but there’s too much WIFOM and rehashing of his defenses. One thing of note is that he spends a lot of time explaining his town reads but only a few sentences to explain who he thinks is scummy. It should be the other way around.
Cavalinho says “Quite frankly, I think all of the people involved in the majority of this discussion right now are town, and we should be focusing on the people that don't include much at the moment.” Which is actually quite impressive. It’s very hard to take a step back and look at the general flow of the game like this. It’s quite common, and definitely true in newbie games, that the most active people in the game are town regardless of how stupid or incomprehensible they may be playing.
LordTolkien said this: “You are correct: I'm looking for a lynch on Day 1 that will have the most impact for town in Day 2, given the unlikelihood of us actually lynching scum. If I'm that lynch, so be it, I'm fine with it.” While this may just be a playstyle choice, I’m of the opinion that you should always be voting the scummiest player, and if it comes down to choosing between people who are not your prime suspects, then pick the scummiest looking one of the ones available. Lynching for information is weak play because scum has the ability to play around the lynches and make themselves look good. For example, right now if LT is lynched, theDragoon looks much better because he ‘correctly read’ LT as town. In general, there’s too much speak of ‘godfather’ and blue roles in this game.
N1ko comes back in the thread with an actually really impressive post. There’s just enough confidence in the subtext to brush away the wishy-washiness from his earlier read. His points against Cavalinho are also very clever, and bringing up Cavalinho’s defensiveness is a good attack that won’t give him backlash in the future. Even OnceKing backs off just a bit after this post.
Beneather seems to be a low post count player. His ‘return’ into the thread to vote Valenius is well thought out and well written, pointing out what Valenius has done and why those things make him scummy. His activity leads a bit to be wanted as he should be sharing reads on at least two or three other people, but his posts themselves are clear and thought out.
TheDragoon states his ‘second thoughts’ on Cavalinho being town. In my opinion not the best move. N1ko is looking like a possible lynch so what TheDragoon should be doing is pushing hard against his current scum read LordTolkien, rather than trying to spread more confusion so late in the day. His response to OnceKing’s pressure on thinking that LT’s mention of the mafia QT is a slip should have been handled more confidently. (“It is a slip because townies don’t really think about the QT” rather than “it might be reaching”).
I say “should have been handled more confidently” but that’s just my opinion. Confidence and conviction is a townie trait, but applying them in the wrong situations is scummy. Being unsure and lost is scummy, but by definition townies are this way and so calling someone scummy for lack of confidence is also not a sure thing. There’s a fine line between too much and too little that really makes the game of mafia the psychological hell that it is.
Cavalinho gets lynched in a three way tie between himself, LordTolkien and N1ko.
- End of Day 1 –
General Comments from suki Day 1 definitely has been one of the less organized Day 1’s that I’ve seen from newbie games. The fact that six, SIX people had votes on them and the highest vote count was TWO is a horrible result for town. This kind of confused atmosphere is the perfect environment for scum to hide and muck about in.
If I had to make suggestions on what could have been improved from town on the whole today, it would be:
1) More scumhunting 2) Less defense 3) Much much less setup discussion
Points 1 and 2 kind of go together. One of the main reasons why town was having a hard time finding scum was because every time someone made a case, the attacked person would write a big defense post and that’s all they would do. Too much time was spent defending oneself and justifying actions, when that time should have been spent pressuring people and making reads.
Sometimes, you have to just let someone have their case against you and move on. “I see your case and I see why you think I’m scummy, but I’m not. Here are the people that I think are scum and why.”
Point number 3 should be obvious. Look at how much time and effort was spent conjecturing what the setup could be, how many mafia are on the other team, why X player’s actions could be possible if he’s godfather or what have you. How much of that actually helped find scum? How much of that actually provided something solid that people could grasp on to as scum behaviour?
I’ve found that the best way to approach power roles in this game (and perhaps particularly so in TeamLiquid style mafia) is to pretend they don’t exist until something happens that proves they exist. An extra shot in the night. Someone being saved. Any discussion about those roles beforehand is just WIFOM and just as easy for scum to make as town.
Now, criticisms aside, I think despite the situation that town put themselves in, I think they’re doing a lot of good things as well. First, they’re very active. Even the people who are under suspicion are staying active and talking, and if this keeps up in the following days then things will eventually turn to their favour. Some good things that people are doing:
OnceKing is asking pointed questions that help discern alignments and force people to take a stance and generally encouraging a pro-town environment.
Amiko is being very open with his reads and scumhunting, also quite pro-town.
LordTolkien has started to take a step in the right direction at the end of the day as well by questioning players, and his post count is quite good for Day 1. Out of all the players he probably has the most potential to improve, but I really like the effort he’s putting into the game.
IamRobik is playing a good game as town and calling people out for talking too much about setup, etc.
Valenius is contributing his reads but unfortunately is being drowned out by the other players.
Beneather is making solid posts although he needs to speak about more people.
Specific comments to Cavalinho since he was the Day 1 lynch:
Cavalinho is free with his reads, but he needs to be more decisive. “This person is scummy, this is why.” While he was making analysis and providing reasons, it seemed to be drowned out in his large posts.
Make use of formatting to help organize your posts and make it easier for people to read. Also, if someone is pressuring you it’s probably better for you to answer things that you find important and then ignore them. After all, you have better things to do than defend yourself.
I think these two things (reads being hidden in posts, feeling like you need to defend to much) contributed to your mislynch the most. However, don’t feel like you played horrible because you only had two votes on you which shows just how confused in general town was.
Also you seemed to be getting very angry at the game, especially when you were lynched. This is normal! Lol. Just take a step back and try to realize that everyone is just trying to figure out the game just like you are (except scum, those dirty bastards). Try not to take things personally and the game will stay fun even in the worst of times.
Comments to Scum:
Overall, scum are doing a good job of staying in the background and letting town eat itself from the inside. This is the perfect environment for scum, so all they have to do is sit back and encourage the mayhem. The only reason N1ko is under suspicion is because of his lack of confidence (which is normal to feel when you’re scum!), but otherwise both players are playing quite well.
- End of comments –
NIGHT ONE
There’s general discussion that people should avoid talking about their reads to avoid directing Mafia’s night kill. This is wrong. Night is the best time to analyze the lynch and the events of the previous day, because after the kill, everyone is going to be focused on the night kill and the previous day will be drowned out.
LordTolkien is suggesting ways to improve scum hunting in the next day and although his idea is a bit too rigid, it’s good that he’s trying to take a town leader position and improve the town atmosphere.
Hopefully someone will take the reins in the night and get everybody to talk about their reads because town needs every opportunity to force people to talk and keep talking. The worst thing to happen in Day 2 is for people to be unmotivated and for all discussion to die down. The best way to avoid this from happening is just keep the activity high throughout the night.
Amiko’s vote analysis is a good effort and a step in the right direction. Encouraging analysis by doing it yourself is very pro-town.
Scum decides to shoot IAmRobik, which is a good choice as he is one of the stronger players in the game despite encouraging a silent night phase.
DAY TWO
Day two actually starts off very pro-town. People are providing their reads, and LordTolkien’s definitely found his groove it seems like as he is now scum hunting and helping push things forward.
TheDragoon’s first post in the thread on Day 2 is actually quite clever. His whole argument is WIFOM, but it’s WIFOM in a direction that is beneficial for scum. Even if Val turns up green and N1k0 red in the next two lynches, theDragoon hasn’t implicated himself because his arguments do make sense from a townie perspective, as a townie who is trying to read too much into the lynch.
Activity declines really quickly though. Whereas town had a bad atmosphere on Day 1 but everyone was posting, now no one is posting even though a good town atmosphere has been set up. This is somewhat common in newbies, for whatever reason.
Just remember that in Mafia, if you’re town, you never want to get lazy or discouraged and you want to keep activity up and encourage everyone else to do so as well. I think the statistic is town will mislynch 75% of the time on day 1, which is actually worse than if town were to select someone at random and lynch them for no other reason ( I believe it’s a 26% chance to hit scum). Can’t remember where I heard the numbers but the important thing is, you’re going to be wrong and that’s okay. The important thing is to keep posting.
Valenius comes out with a gigantic post that goes over his read on IAmRobik prior to and after the night kill, as well as reads on pretty much everyone in the game. One of the problems with a huge post like this is it is easy to get lost and forget what points the poster is making. I would suggest in large posts like these having a ‘tldr’ or summary section that summarizes everything in a short paragraph.
N1k0 looks like he’s becoming more and more popular for being lynched, particularly for making statements of people’s alignments without having good reasond to back them up. Being lurky is also going to him soon as now he has the least contributions next to Beneather. Marv (scum coach) is telling them to hike up their activity, and activity is definitely one of the reasons why people are seeing theDragoon as town and N1k0 as scummy.
N1k0’s decision to target the lurkers is probably going to be his end. Also the fact that he included himself as one of the lurkers who should be looked at is a mistake. There should be no reason why he should include himself in the list of suspects if he’s town, since he himself knows he’s innocent. From a strategy perspective, targeting Valenius was a bad move because if N1k0 ends up dying before Valenius, town might clear Valenius of suspicion and that will put theDragoon in a bad position since theDragoon is pushing the Valenius lynch.
And now OnceKing jumps right on N1k0 with a pretty good case. “Note the tone of fear and not wanting to stick out in his posts” is a pretty damning piece of evidence.
Town atmosphere seems to be getting back on track with LordTolkien’s post. Unbeknownst to him, he’s made some pretty critical observations and asked some great questions.
Directed at theDragoon:
Additionally, what is your view on N1K0? You've spent most of your analysis on just Valenius and the possibilities that arise from lynching him. It's not a shoo-in at this point. What do you think a red flip of N1K0 means?
Directed at N1k0:
Also, why do you read theDragoon as town again, and why did his vote on me impact your read so?
The way the scum team handles these two questions will be critical to their success, both in the short and long term. The bandwagon on N1k0 picks up quickly. His responses are also still timid, which is the biggest reason why he is in trouble here. Basically, N1k0 played scared and that’s why people are on him. He was too afraid to make any reads and thus all his contributions fell flat and town picked up on it.
N1k0 fades out without another word. It’s interesting that theDragoon is the only person who didn’t vote N1k0. This might actually work in his favour.
General comments on Day 2 from suki
Day 2 was pretty straightforward. Town activity dropped a ton, but several people still made big posts and contributed reads which is very important. Due to N1k0’s day 1 play, he was in the spotlight on Day 2 and it seems like he just choked and wasn’t sure what to do so he died a pretty silent death.
It looks like Valenius and Beneather are going to be the main targets for the next day. theDragoon seems to be in a good groove so it may take a day or two for him to even start to be under suspicion.
The biggest factor to catching theDragoon will be whether or not town picks up their activity from this successful lynch and makes it hard for theDragoon to blend in.
- End of comment –
Night 2
Not much to say. Reads being thrown around by town. TheDragoon looks to be under pressure but I think his approach is really impressive. Calling Valenius confirmed town is a great move and I think it will get people off his backs. Appealing to emotion by saying he wanted to be the one guy that got it right (that N1k0 was green) is also very sneaky.
Day 3
Due to his lack of participation in the game, Beneather is the obvious lynch for the day. I don’t think there’s any reason for town not to lynch Beneather. It’s unfortunate that scum gets a free ride on Day 3, however this is just the nature of newbie games.
theDragoon has a tough LYLO ahead of him as he is the most suspicious person after Beneather, however at this point I think that the game could go either way. If town stops thinking, dragoon can cause enough confusion to take the win. And if theDragoon doesn’t play his cards well enough, then town can just go with their gut feeling and lynch theDragoon for town victory.
Amiko posts a case on theDragoon:
Here, theDragoon is suggesting that we lynch someone who is softclaiming a blue role. If Tolkien was lynched d1 and flipped as a blue role, how would that information have helped town? This is such a weird suggestion it really throws me (and I feel bad for not criticizing it before).
This is a good point.
The confusing votes from theDragoon make much more sense when you realize he is trying to avoid lynching his mafia teammate n1k0.
This is mostly wifom. Town shoots who they think is most likely to be scum. A better argument would be, theDragoon put N1k0 as scummy for two days in a row and didn’t lynch him. This is much more scummy behaviour.
This explanation strikes me as weird – for one, it’s not using any logic/knowledge/reads, so it’s a weird justification to begin with. Second, it seems to me that the pride-saving move is to bandwagon– then if you are wrong, you are wrong with everyone else.
This point is just wrong. Mafia is an egotistical game. There are players who don’t really care if scum gets lynched as long as their #1 target is lynched. theDragoon’s reasoning that he didn’t switch because of pride was a very good townie reason to fake.
What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy .
Didn’t read the links because they were broken. However contradictions like this are very good for catching scum.
Overall, Amiko’s post brings up good points.
TheDragoon then posts his cases. One thing I don’t like is how he’s entertaining all the remaining players as being suspicious. He should have at least one town read, probably LordTolkien.
His point on Amiko bandwagoning on N1k0, as well as N1k0 saying Amiko was likely godfather are pretty good points against Amiko. However, note that the case is WIFOM. There’s no analysis of the underlying motives – Amiko did X, which has scum motivations not town motivations.
He seems to think Valenius is town but if that’s the case he shouldn’t say ‘just in case’. Same with LordTolkien. The biggest issue with theDragoon’s case is he doesn’t straight up say, Amiko is the best lynch on the final day and instead resorts to wifom cases.
Now LordTolkien posts his case. He says Valenius bussed N1k0 day 2 because he was first to vote for N1k0. While this is a tempting argument, scum rarely does this and this should be seen as a point in favour of Valenius being town. LT is correct that Robik was killed to get rid of the players who voted N1k0 day 1, he reaches a bit too far by saying it implicates Valenius and clears theDragoon.
The biggest issue with LT’s case is it’s also based on WIFOM, like theDragoon’s.
At this point, the players should be looking at each of the remaining players’ actions, and analyzing their motivations behind those actions. Every players’ cases have flaws, but Amiko’s cases are the best at this point – not because he’s right, but because he looks more into the inconsistencies in theDragoon’s play and the motivations behind his actions.
One thing that sets theDragoon apart from every remaining player is his filter size. His filter is only two pages long. Two pages! Everyone else has been much more active, much more contributing. This should be a major red flag for the remaining players. One of the main ways to clear people as town in normal games is if they are extremely active and post a lot. There are very few players who can post in high quantity as scum, it’s very difficult.
Amiko makes a big post talking mostly to theDragoon. He really needs to make up his mind himself, rather than talking and seeing whose answer makes more sense. The reason is this is LYLO. Scum can say whatever they want and not care about having to live another day. They just have to sound good, and they win. At this point it’s most important to look back at the game as a whole and answer questions like:
Whose actions make most sense from a scum perspective? Who has the scummiest connection to the flipped mafia? Does it make sense that both these players are alive right now? (Better players than me can probably chime in here since I’ve only been to LYLO once).
The point is, as town in this final stage of the game, you have to rely on yourself and on your reads, and when you decide who is most likely to be scum, you have to convince the townie to believe your case. The scum wants to appear like he’s doing this, but try to vote the person he thinks he will be able to most likely get the majority vote on. He will say everything and anything he can to trick the remaining townies.
theDragoon posts, in one post: “After the n1k0 flip, I really thought that Valenius was town but now everything is adding up to Valenius being mafia.” AND “In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia.” If I were in LYLO with theDragoon I’d lynch him every time because he is not making sense. There is only one mafia at this point.
Valenius posts a masssssssive post and to be honest I don’t know what he said cuz I stopped reading when I realized it was a novelette. This post basically confirms him as town. Like, is scum going to post that giant wall? No way. That said, the post ends without any sort of conclusion. This makes me very sad. I have no idea which side Valenius is taking at the end of that, and I doubt even if I did read the whole thing whether it would be clear at that time either.
I don't actually finish up to the end of the last day because I haven't had the time. Other people can comment if they will.
On February 27 2014 15:23 suki wrote: Confidence and conviction is a townie trait, but applying them in the wrong situations is scummy.
Confidence in itself is pretty null in my opinion. I've never understood why town should feel super confident in their reads. It's really easy to doubt your reads when what you're doing is essentially trying to guess someone's alignment based on what he's posting.
On February 27 2014 15:23 suki wrote: Confidence and conviction is a townie trait, but applying them in the wrong situations is scummy.
Confidence in itself is pretty null in my opinion. I've never understood why town should feel super confident in their reads. It's really easy to doubt your reads when what you're doing is essentially trying to guess someone's alignment based on what he's posting.
Because if you don't look like you believe in yourself in the first place you are never going to convince anyone else to believe you which is kinda critical in lynching people YOU think is mafia.
EDIT: It's also wasy to discredit a case as mafia if you know the person bringing it up is not sure about it. I mean, you can easily spot the weak spots you can tell the accuser does not believe in, and tell they are weak with more confidence than in a case that just states why you are mafia 100%.
On February 27 2014 15:23 suki wrote: Confidence and conviction is a townie trait, but applying them in the wrong situations is scummy.
Confidence in itself is pretty null in my opinion. I've never understood why town should feel super confident in their reads. It's really easy to doubt your reads when what you're doing is essentially trying to guess someone's alignment based on what he's posting.
Because if you don't look like you believe in yourself in the first place you are never going to convince anyone to else to believe you which is kinda critical in lynching people YOU think is mafia.
It doesn't require "this guys is 100% scum, guaranteed" to believe someone is the scummiest player, though.
Before I post my thoughts, id be interested for you guys to try and pick out where I was completeeeely lying in this game. I have no idea how we won this with how badly I played ~
Alright, I've finally gotten to go back and re-read everything in this QT. Am I allowed to post the link to my QT? I presume I can discuss coaching here since nobody here is actually playing any longer.
Overall my thought process for most of the game was fuck the fact that I'm a power role, I just want to go as hard as possible as long as possible and force mafia to either kill me or step up and try to outargue me. I think the way I played the first day was really sloppy and I tunneled on LT way too much. The initial statement I made on Amiko I feel still was fine as it gave us a direction and point to discuss off of. However what happened afterwards was simply terrible, Cav piled onto Amiko without adding anything new (which I wouldn't properly differentiate from scum parroting until after he flipped), LT went onto Amiko for what I felt were the most dubious of reasons. My reads at this point were: scum? - Amiko, LT, inactives (Beneather and N1k0 have not posted yet) town? - myself, IAmRobik no idea - everyone else
Elaboration on why I felt Robik was town -- he asked some random question that I felt was obviously an attempt to pressure a productive response out of an inactive. More or less a gut read without anything substantial to back it up. In fact I was completely unconvinced by Amiko's defense of himself but he made a large post here that I thought was reasonable (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessag...8¤tpage=7#139). The second quote he had off Cav was dumb imo, I think it's completely reasonable for a townie being willing to rescind his vote to get more reads. Afterwards I went onto LT. My reasons were... kinda legit. Actually I used the same reasoning a lot to push the case forward on N1k0, but afterwards I felt that perhaps LT is correct in that I didn't take context of his posts into account properly. The reason why part of the reason why I scumread him for discussing setup at all was because I think discussion of town policy and "what should x role do" and "what if there are y mafia in the game" is silly -- as town at its most basic the game is "vote who you think are the bad guys". That's why when he said he wanted to vote for information I wanted to kill him IMMEDIATELY, as I recall in many past analyses it's been written by many people that the reason to vote for someone is because you think they're scum.
After a bit I stated that I felt a split situation on votes would be good and I stand by this statement... I certainly didn't expect the decision to be SO split (2 votes for a lynch?? ugh, terrible but I didn't want to just whine at the town afterwards for not clumping up more on votes because I didn't see the POINT of saying such a thing) -- I ideally would have wanted a 3-6 split or a 4-5 split. The idea here would have been that mafia either piled onto a wagon to push it over the edge to save a teammate, or spread out amongst the two wagons because both would be town so they wouldn't particularly care who'd be lynched day 1.
Anyway... LT and I got into a shouting match which probably made it kinda clear that we were both probably town and just stinking up the town atmosphere but I was tunneling WAY too hard to notice this. I think at this point the day was basically over and people were just pointing fingers at each other like a bunch of idiots lol...
so day 1 what I could have DEFINITELY FOR SURE done better: 1. Work on constructing solid cases against players -- nobody did this well at all actually but that doesn't excuse it. I wanted to make posts that were concise but this resulted in me glossing over a lot of details to the point where I was actually called nitpicky because it looked like I was only attacking random points without any cohesion. This was probably true. 2. Pressure inactives better. Turns out the post I got out of N1k0 is really what I used to get him lynched later but I feel like a complete idiot trying to make people talk. I "could" vote for them but I think policy lynching inactives is pretty stupid... what suki said at the beginning of the QT about policy lynching lurkers if done at all should be done early makes a lot of sense but I don't think it's a good way to lynch scum. I guess what it gives you is that if you DO end up voting an "inactive" who's just scum lurking then mafia have to show their hand a bit to force the lynch onto some other inactive (but this isn't very difficult either is it?) I'm guessing that point 2 could have potentially led earlier to the lynch of N1k0...?? who knows. It didn't happen and in retrospect he slipped up pretty obviously but hindsight is 20/20. Unfortunately I was tunneling too hard/didn't feel that anyone was making logical enough of arguments onto the inactives to justify me switching off LT. At the end of the day I *felt* like my case had relatively more substance than just "look at this guy, he's contradicted himself!" without saying where but clearly this wasn't so.
So during the night I randomly got scared of being NKed and just avoided saying anything. This was a terrible reason and I discussed why later in the topic actually right before being NKed (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessag...¤tpage=19#362). I saved Amiko because he was a stronger town read. Looking back... sure, I can understand why I did that. I wouldn't blame myself for doing that again.
On day 2... I don't remember precisely what it was that inspired me to look at N1k0. Amiko's vote analysis was pretty legit so I actually went off on the direction and asked myself who was it that didn't say ANYTHING about the huge topics during the day. I actually discussed this before in my QT wherein I said that I felt that I word vomited way too much and didn't apply pressure properly during the first day and it was brought up that people who don't have opinions on big issues are scummy too. In hindsight this is clear but often in the heat of the moment I have trouble evaluating situations objectively. So I went back through the filters of Beneather, N1k0, Valenius and theDragoon. Beneather was posting very little and I didn't have a lot to go off of but he had this random ass vote on Valenius that he was alone in -- he didn't comment on my spat with LT at all but I felt the direction he was heading off on by himself was... okay? I couldn't tell at the time if he was just trying to contribute but not stick out or just look for an excuse to vote someone randomly.
theDragoon... gosh I don't even remember. I distinctly remember townreading him at one point then going back through his filter and being like geez why did I townread this guy, did I really just think he's town because he agrees with me?? That's so stupid lol Anyway going back and looking again I think I passed over him a bit because he had a definite opinion on me at the very least, so he passed my (very weak) criteria of "willing to take a side".
Valenius ignored the topic almost entirely. I scumread him off of that.
N1k0's post after reading it several times I just couldn't understand the point of him saying anything that he said from a townie's perspective. As I had previously mentioned in my QT I hated that I had explicitly posted random thoughts that were completely unnecessary to post and I felt that I had made other people end up doing it too so then I couldn't fish out who was posting dumb stuff because they were influenced by my dumb stuff and who was posting dumb stuff to look like they were contributing, but ultimately I decided to seal the deal on N1k0 especially as after I made my case on him he didn't even bother TRYING to address it.
Ah! I remember what set me off onto N1k0 now, Valenius made a post accusing him because he had been completely wrong about his prior reads which I thought was a silly criteria for marking someone as scum but I wanted to see what the reads were (were they wishy washy for example, which they completely were) to make sure.
So what could I have done better on the second day? Here's what I think for sure: After catching N1k0 I should have just gone fucking IN and kept scumhunting like mad. I kept waiting for him to defend himself and realized too late it wasn't coming, instead I should have been building cases and rereading posts to look for the other mafia member and just fucking nail all of them to the wall at once. Instead I sat around twiddling my thumbs and just died despite my "efforts" to shift the hit towards Lord Tolkien instead of myself (rip).
Ultimately I think I played... alright. I really feel that I did better than most of the other players though there's no good way of knowing -- Cavalinho and Robik both died before me so who knows what they could have done better in my position. Of course all the more experienced players here are right though -- this was my first game and it really shows (even ignoring that excuse... all play was super sloppy and extra newbie for a newbie game as Promethelax said at the beginning of the QT). Still by explaining my thought processes through much of the game I hope I can shed some light on why I made which moves I did (and maybe earn brownie points?? omg), perhaps lower the amount of disappointment that I'm sure some people had about play this game and get some constructive criticism.
I thought he was town because while everybody was arguing back and forth about other stuff he would weigh in just a bit on it and then go in some completely different direction with his reads.
Ex. day 1, he pops in at the very end of the day and goes "uhhh yeah guys I think it's Valenius" when no one was really looking at Valenius before. I think this speaks to being a lazy townie because I don't feel it fits into what a mafia member would do -- someone in the mafia member would likely instead just try to skirt around the big issues of the day and just not really accuse anyone.
I dunno, because he's inactive there's not a whole lot to go on. Honestly had I lived I may have wanted to lynch him too (?). I'm not sure on that though because it's just way too easy of a free lynch for mafia to take and it would have been a day closer to LYLO were he town. Like, look how completely unanimous the vote is. Everyone's on Beneather. So this day has even less discussion than the previous day, and by God was day 2 completely boring! At least stuff happened on day 1, but on day 2 here's what happened: 1. people are suspicious of valenius 2. i am suspicious of N1k0 3. N1k0 doesn't try at all and dies Here's what's happening day 3: 1. Beneather is inactive 2. Beneather is dead Nobody even talks about anything because they're just like "yep we're set on this lynch now", there are 4 votes on him and zero votes elsewhere so there's nothing TO talk about ("why are you voting for Valenius instead of Beneather?" for example, I'm not yet convinced Valenius is town lol) and town just wastes 48 hours where they could be scumhunting as opposed to... I dunno, sitting around agreeing to lynch Valenius. This is just so ideal for mafia where they can sit back and say things that mean nothing (Valenius: "If Beneather turns up Blue/Green, I'm going to be pissed. His other games he seems to just randomly go afk and never post again, and those were a mix of blue/green games." for example) while stalling for time, which is what mafia want to do anyway that I just can't see Beneather really flipping red atm.
The game begins with people voting right off the bat. There’s a light hearted atmosphere where people are poking at each other rather than discussing policy which is a good start for town.
Amiko comes in with an intro post that pretty much reads like a brand new townie player (because scum newbies are much more nervous about their play). OnceKing starts the game off by making a small case on how Amiko’s opening case is scummy. Cavalinho sheeps onto it. The back and forth between Amiko and Cavalinho is good as they are both making each other take stances.
The game starts to get sidetracked into setup discussion, blue actions. Valenius and Lord Tolkien are guilty of this and hopefully people will call them out on it. Discussing blue roles in the early game is a no-no. First off, it doesn’t move the game forward, and second people who talk about blues become prime targets for mafia to shoot in the night. If you’re blue, you just outed yourself. If you’re not, you’re wasting time discussing things when you should be scum hunting. I can’t be too critical of this because it’s a newbie game and people are just figuring things out, but the sooner people start scum hunting the better for town. The more experienced players should start herding the newer ones in this direction to promote a good town atmosphere.
Cavalinho posts a giant post on Amiko that basically boils down to ‘don’t cop check active players’. Someone should totally call him out on it. This is the kind of play that scum loves to hide behind.
And yeah OnceKing calls people out and says ‘let’s focus on scumhunting and less on setup’. Perfect, pro-town play. TheDragoon makes a decent entry into the thread. His buddying up with Cavalinho may or may not be good, it depends on his scum cases.
Amiko, Cavalinho and OnceKing start discussing with each other and from the feel of the conversation I think they’ll all come out looking pretty decent. Sharing thoughts openly, having clear explanations for things and scum hunting in general are all good town behaviours.
A bandwagon on LordTolkien seems to be forming and to be honest it’s actually not that bad of a wagon. LT hasn’t contributed much of value, has a lot of policy talk and is asking very general questions that make it sound like he’s not really pressuring people and he’s not being open with his reads. His list post of suspicions is weak content-wise as one of his reads is based on an unflipped player, and another is an OMGUS. Also, commenting on himself is not helpful and saying things like “if I were blue” is only going to get him in trouble.
LordTolkien’s best plan of action is to start really analyzing and picking out actions from other players that he finds scummy. This might be hard, because the first instinct is to defend oneself from attacks, but if that’s all he does he’s only going to look worse and worse.
theDragoon makes his first analysis post here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20817275 It starts off well, however the biggest problem with this post is that it doesn’t come to any conclusion. The ending line is: “He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet.” So he’s saying, I’d lynch him to see if he’s scum, but I don’t feel like lynching him. Really wonder if anyone is going to pick up on this wishy-washiness. Notice too that the post is fluffed up by blue speculation. This is a trend that was started by the townies so Dragoon actually blends in with this, but if you really look at the post he’s using a lot of words to say very little.
Fortunately for Mafia, LordTolkien seems to be content with speculation and at this point in the game it’s looking like he might be one of the main targets for the lynch.
OnceKing and LordTolkien start pointing fingers at each other. Their defenses are completely WIFOM (I’m mafia and such and such OR I’m town and such and such). LordTolkien’s counter-case on OnceKing is completely OMGUS, and it’s unreasonable to suggest that town “trade” LordTolkien for OnceKing, as either alignment. The better response would have been making a case on why OnceKing’s actions make him scum. If LT can’t do that, then he’ll just have to accept that OnceKing is town but on the wrong track – In which case, it’s up to LT to find scum and point OnceKing onto the right track.
Something that’s hard to remember when you first start playing Mafia is attacks are not personal. If someone is attacking you, it’s not their fault if they are wrong. After all, how can you expect them to be right, they have the same information you have (except they know their own alignment and not yours). If you’re attacked, the best response is to calmly explain why their points are invalid, and then provide a counter case on who you actually do think is scum.
LordTolkien seems to be a good candidate for lynch. Although he is saying a lot, too much of his words are trying to orchestrate lynches or ‘trades’, and not enough on actual analysis why people are scummy. Definitely see the pressure of having multiple people on him getting to him. The one thing going for him is that he is posting a LOT and being active, so maybe he might be able to gather his thoughts in time to avoid being lynched.
N1ko’s entry into the game is extremely scummy and should be jumped on right away. His first post is an excuse. His second post is a random town read with no explanation, but he’s also wishy-washy on it. It’s also very very strange that he would think IAmRobik is specifically VT but not know if the person is blue or red. That is, he thinks the person is town (VT), but he’s not sure if the person is scum-oriented (red) or town-oriented (blue). This sort of cognitive dissonance is very telling of a scum trying to weave his web.
Finally IAmRobik calls people out on policy talk and setup talk.. However it’s a bit late for that as the thread has already moved away from this discussion.
OnceKing calls n1ko out right away. There’s still a chance to gracefully get out. IamRobik also puts n1ko as #1 scum. N1ko’s next post where he outlines his reads on people actually feels pretty good though. He lays out reads and reasons for them, and votes his most scummy target. The only issue I have with his post is his line at the end ‘but I’m not too confident on it’. This may actually dispel some of the heat on him and point it towards the more scummy looking townies. As the game progresses, town seems to be all over the place. There isn’t any strong push towards one or even two people, which is the perfect atmosphere for scum. N1ko had some pressure on him but since his contribution post the weaker townies are now under heat. OnceKing did pick up on the wishy-washiness of N1ko’s read and I think it’s going to hurt N1ko in the long run. Still, he’s not in danger on D1 and maybe, maybe D2.
IAmRobik and OnceTown are obvious townies trying to figure out the game. Valenius could be up there in towniness, but his strange vote on IAmRobik doesn’t make sense. It’s pretty much an OMGUS, and the other people he’s ok with voting (LT and Amiko) he doesn’t seem to have very strong cases on. LordTolkien looks the worst at the moment by far, and I’m wondering if he’s making use of his coach to help steer him in the right direction.
The game moves forward with Amiko starting to provide some reads and Cavalinho going on an OMGUS rampage. He votes N1ko but he provides no explanation for it. He may be right, but there’s no weight to his words without evidence to back it up and his omgus on Amiko isn’t helping his image.
LordTolkien posts a big post with a bunch of names and it looks like he’s trying to contribute, but there’s too much WIFOM and rehashing of his defenses. One thing of note is that he spends a lot of time explaining his town reads but only a few sentences to explain who he thinks is scummy. It should be the other way around.
Cavalinho says “Quite frankly, I think all of the people involved in the majority of this discussion right now are town, and we should be focusing on the people that don't include much at the moment.” Which is actually quite impressive. It’s very hard to take a step back and look at the general flow of the game like this. It’s quite common, and definitely true in newbie games, that the most active people in the game are town regardless of how stupid or incomprehensible they may be playing.
LordTolkien said this: “You are correct: I'm looking for a lynch on Day 1 that will have the most impact for town in Day 2, given the unlikelihood of us actually lynching scum. If I'm that lynch, so be it, I'm fine with it.” While this may just be a playstyle choice, I’m of the opinion that you should always be voting the scummiest player, and if it comes down to choosing between people who are not your prime suspects, then pick the scummiest looking one of the ones available. Lynching for information is weak play because scum has the ability to play around the lynches and make themselves look good. For example, right now if LT is lynched, theDragoon looks much better because he ‘correctly read’ LT as town. In general, there’s too much speak of ‘godfather’ and blue roles in this game.
N1ko comes back in the thread with an actually really impressive post. There’s just enough confidence in the subtext to brush away the wishy-washiness from his earlier read. His points against Cavalinho are also very clever, and bringing up Cavalinho’s defensiveness is a good attack that won’t give him backlash in the future. Even OnceKing backs off just a bit after this post.
Beneather seems to be a low post count player. His ‘return’ into the thread to vote Valenius is well thought out and well written, pointing out what Valenius has done and why those things make him scummy. His activity leads a bit to be wanted as he should be sharing reads on at least two or three other people, but his posts themselves are clear and thought out.
TheDragoon states his ‘second thoughts’ on Cavalinho being town. In my opinion not the best move. N1ko is looking like a possible lynch so what TheDragoon should be doing is pushing hard against his current scum read LordTolkien, rather than trying to spread more confusion so late in the day. His response to OnceKing’s pressure on thinking that LT’s mention of the mafia QT is a slip should have been handled more confidently. (“It is a slip because townies don’t really think about the QT” rather than “it might be reaching”).
I say “should have been handled more confidently” but that’s just my opinion. Confidence and conviction is a townie trait, but applying them in the wrong situations is scummy. Being unsure and lost is scummy, but by definition townies are this way and so calling someone scummy for lack of confidence is also not a sure thing. There’s a fine line between too much and too little that really makes the game of mafia the psychological hell that it is.
Cavalinho gets lynched in a three way tie between himself, LordTolkien and N1ko.
- End of Day 1 –
General Comments from suki Day 1 definitely has been one of the less organized Day 1’s that I’ve seen from newbie games. The fact that six, SIX people had votes on them and the highest vote count was TWO is a horrible result for town. This kind of confused atmosphere is the perfect environment for scum to hide and muck about in.
If I had to make suggestions on what could have been improved from town on the whole today, it would be:
1) More scumhunting 2) Less defense 3) Much much less setup discussion
Points 1 and 2 kind of go together. One of the main reasons why town was having a hard time finding scum was because every time someone made a case, the attacked person would write a big defense post and that’s all they would do. Too much time was spent defending oneself and justifying actions, when that time should have been spent pressuring people and making reads.
Sometimes, you have to just let someone have their case against you and move on. “I see your case and I see why you think I’m scummy, but I’m not. Here are the people that I think are scum and why.”
Point number 3 should be obvious. Look at how much time and effort was spent conjecturing what the setup could be, how many mafia are on the other team, why X player’s actions could be possible if he’s godfather or what have you. How much of that actually helped find scum? How much of that actually provided something solid that people could grasp on to as scum behaviour?
I’ve found that the best way to approach power roles in this game (and perhaps particularly so in TeamLiquid style mafia) is to pretend they don’t exist until something happens that proves they exist. An extra shot in the night. Someone being saved. Any discussion about those roles beforehand is just WIFOM and just as easy for scum to make as town.
Now, criticisms aside, I think despite the situation that town put themselves in, I think they’re doing a lot of good things as well. First, they’re very active. Even the people who are under suspicion are staying active and talking, and if this keeps up in the following days then things will eventually turn to their favour. Some good things that people are doing:
OnceKing is asking pointed questions that help discern alignments and force people to take a stance and generally encouraging a pro-town environment.
Amiko is being very open with his reads and scumhunting, also quite pro-town.
LordTolkien has started to take a step in the right direction at the end of the day as well by questioning players, and his post count is quite good for Day 1. Out of all the players he probably has the most potential to improve, but I really like the effort he’s putting into the game.
IamRobik is playing a good game as town and calling people out for talking too much about setup, etc.
Valenius is contributing his reads but unfortunately is being drowned out by the other players.
Beneather is making solid posts although he needs to speak about more people.
Specific comments to Cavalinho since he was the Day 1 lynch:
Cavalinho is free with his reads, but he needs to be more decisive. “This person is scummy, this is why.” While he was making analysis and providing reasons, it seemed to be drowned out in his large posts.
Make use of formatting to help organize your posts and make it easier for people to read. Also, if someone is pressuring you it’s probably better for you to answer things that you find important and then ignore them. After all, you have better things to do than defend yourself.
I think these two things (reads being hidden in posts, feeling like you need to defend to much) contributed to your mislynch the most. However, don’t feel like you played horrible because you only had two votes on you which shows just how confused in general town was.
Also you seemed to be getting very angry at the game, especially when you were lynched. This is normal! Lol. Just take a step back and try to realize that everyone is just trying to figure out the game just like you are (except scum, those dirty bastards). Try not to take things personally and the game will stay fun even in the worst of times.
Comments to Scum:
Overall, scum are doing a good job of staying in the background and letting town eat itself from the inside. This is the perfect environment for scum, so all they have to do is sit back and encourage the mayhem. The only reason N1ko is under suspicion is because of his lack of confidence (which is normal to feel when you’re scum!), but otherwise both players are playing quite well.
- End of comments –
NIGHT ONE
There’s general discussion that people should avoid talking about their reads to avoid directing Mafia’s night kill. This is wrong. Night is the best time to analyze the lynch and the events of the previous day, because after the kill, everyone is going to be focused on the night kill and the previous day will be drowned out.
LordTolkien is suggesting ways to improve scum hunting in the next day and although his idea is a bit too rigid, it’s good that he’s trying to take a town leader position and improve the town atmosphere.
Hopefully someone will take the reins in the night and get everybody to talk about their reads because town needs every opportunity to force people to talk and keep talking. The worst thing to happen in Day 2 is for people to be unmotivated and for all discussion to die down. The best way to avoid this from happening is just keep the activity high throughout the night.
Amiko’s vote analysis is a good effort and a step in the right direction. Encouraging analysis by doing it yourself is very pro-town.
Scum decides to shoot IAmRobik, which is a good choice as he is one of the stronger players in the game despite encouraging a silent night phase.
DAY TWO
Day two actually starts off very pro-town. People are providing their reads, and LordTolkien’s definitely found his groove it seems like as he is now scum hunting and helping push things forward.
TheDragoon’s first post in the thread on Day 2 is actually quite clever. His whole argument is WIFOM, but it’s WIFOM in a direction that is beneficial for scum. Even if Val turns up green and N1k0 red in the next two lynches, theDragoon hasn’t implicated himself because his arguments do make sense from a townie perspective, as a townie who is trying to read too much into the lynch.
Activity declines really quickly though. Whereas town had a bad atmosphere on Day 1 but everyone was posting, now no one is posting even though a good town atmosphere has been set up. This is somewhat common in newbies, for whatever reason.
Just remember that in Mafia, if you’re town, you never want to get lazy or discouraged and you want to keep activity up and encourage everyone else to do so as well. I think the statistic is town will mislynch 75% of the time on day 1, which is actually worse than if town were to select someone at random and lynch them for no other reason ( I believe it’s a 26% chance to hit scum). Can’t remember where I heard the numbers but the important thing is, you’re going to be wrong and that’s okay. The important thing is to keep posting.
Valenius comes out with a gigantic post that goes over his read on IAmRobik prior to and after the night kill, as well as reads on pretty much everyone in the game. One of the problems with a huge post like this is it is easy to get lost and forget what points the poster is making. I would suggest in large posts like these having a ‘tldr’ or summary section that summarizes everything in a short paragraph.
N1k0 looks like he’s becoming more and more popular for being lynched, particularly for making statements of people’s alignments without having good reasond to back them up. Being lurky is also going to him soon as now he has the least contributions next to Beneather. Marv (scum coach) is telling them to hike up their activity, and activity is definitely one of the reasons why people are seeing theDragoon as town and N1k0 as scummy.
N1k0’s decision to target the lurkers is probably going to be his end. Also the fact that he included himself as one of the lurkers who should be looked at is a mistake. There should be no reason why he should include himself in the list of suspects if he’s town, since he himself knows he’s innocent. From a strategy perspective, targeting Valenius was a bad move because if N1k0 ends up dying before Valenius, town might clear Valenius of suspicion and that will put theDragoon in a bad position since theDragoon is pushing the Valenius lynch.
And now OnceKing jumps right on N1k0 with a pretty good case. “Note the tone of fear and not wanting to stick out in his posts” is a pretty damning piece of evidence.
Town atmosphere seems to be getting back on track with LordTolkien’s post. Unbeknownst to him, he’s made some pretty critical observations and asked some great questions.
Directed at theDragoon:
Additionally, what is your view on N1K0? You've spent most of your analysis on just Valenius and the possibilities that arise from lynching him. It's not a shoo-in at this point. What do you think a red flip of N1K0 means?
Directed at N1k0:
Also, why do you read theDragoon as town again, and why did his vote on me impact your read so?
The way the scum team handles these two questions will be critical to their success, both in the short and long term. The bandwagon on N1k0 picks up quickly. His responses are also still timid, which is the biggest reason why he is in trouble here. Basically, N1k0 played scared and that’s why people are on him. He was too afraid to make any reads and thus all his contributions fell flat and town picked up on it.
N1k0 fades out without another word. It’s interesting that theDragoon is the only person who didn’t vote N1k0. This might actually work in his favour.
General comments on Day 2 from suki
Day 2 was pretty straightforward. Town activity dropped a ton, but several people still made big posts and contributed reads which is very important. Due to N1k0’s day 1 play, he was in the spotlight on Day 2 and it seems like he just choked and wasn’t sure what to do so he died a pretty silent death.
It looks like Valenius and Beneather are going to be the main targets for the next day. theDragoon seems to be in a good groove so it may take a day or two for him to even start to be under suspicion.
The biggest factor to catching theDragoon will be whether or not town picks up their activity from this successful lynch and makes it hard for theDragoon to blend in.
- End of comment –
Night 2
Not much to say. Reads being thrown around by town. TheDragoon looks to be under pressure but I think his approach is really impressive. Calling Valenius confirmed town is a great move and I think it will get people off his backs. Appealing to emotion by saying he wanted to be the one guy that got it right (that N1k0 was green) is also very sneaky.
Day 3
Due to his lack of participation in the game, Beneather is the obvious lynch for the day. I don’t think there’s any reason for town not to lynch Beneather. It’s unfortunate that scum gets a free ride on Day 3, however this is just the nature of newbie games.
theDragoon has a tough LYLO ahead of him as he is the most suspicious person after Beneather, however at this point I think that the game could go either way. If town stops thinking, dragoon can cause enough confusion to take the win. And if theDragoon doesn’t play his cards well enough, then town can just go with their gut feeling and lynch theDragoon for town victory.
Amiko posts a case on theDragoon:
Here, theDragoon is suggesting that we lynch someone who is softclaiming a blue role. If Tolkien was lynched d1 and flipped as a blue role, how would that information have helped town? This is such a weird suggestion it really throws me (and I feel bad for not criticizing it before).
This is a good point.
The confusing votes from theDragoon make much more sense when you realize he is trying to avoid lynching his mafia teammate n1k0.
This is mostly wifom. Town shoots who they think is most likely to be scum. A better argument would be, theDragoon put N1k0 as scummy for two days in a row and didn’t lynch him. This is much more scummy behaviour.
This explanation strikes me as weird – for one, it’s not using any logic/knowledge/reads, so it’s a weird justification to begin with. Second, it seems to me that the pride-saving move is to bandwagon– then if you are wrong, you are wrong with everyone else.
This point is just wrong. Mafia is an egotistical game. There are players who don’t really care if scum gets lynched as long as their #1 target is lynched. theDragoon’s reasoning that he didn’t switch because of pride was a very good townie reason to fake.
What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy .
Didn’t read the links because they were broken. However contradictions like this are very good for catching scum.
Overall, Amiko’s post brings up good points.
TheDragoon then posts his cases. One thing I don’t like is how he’s entertaining all the remaining players as being suspicious. He should have at least one town read, probably LordTolkien.
His point on Amiko bandwagoning on N1k0, as well as N1k0 saying Amiko was likely godfather are pretty good points against Amiko. However, note that the case is WIFOM. There’s no analysis of the underlying motives – Amiko did X, which has scum motivations not town motivations.
He seems to think Valenius is town but if that’s the case he shouldn’t say ‘just in case’. Same with LordTolkien. The biggest issue with theDragoon’s case is he doesn’t straight up say, Amiko is the best lynch on the final day and instead resorts to wifom cases.
Now LordTolkien posts his case. He says Valenius bussed N1k0 day 2 because he was first to vote for N1k0. While this is a tempting argument, scum rarely does this and this should be seen as a point in favour of Valenius being town. LT is correct that Robik was killed to get rid of the players who voted N1k0 day 1, he reaches a bit too far by saying it implicates Valenius and clears theDragoon.
The biggest issue with LT’s case is it’s also based on WIFOM, like theDragoon’s.
At this point, the players should be looking at each of the remaining players’ actions, and analyzing their motivations behind those actions. Every players’ cases have flaws, but Amiko’s cases are the best at this point – not because he’s right, but because he looks more into the inconsistencies in theDragoon’s play and the motivations behind his actions.
One thing that sets theDragoon apart from every remaining player is his filter size. His filter is only two pages long. Two pages! Everyone else has been much more active, much more contributing. This should be a major red flag for the remaining players. One of the main ways to clear people as town in normal games is if they are extremely active and post a lot. There are very few players who can post in high quantity as scum, it’s very difficult.
Amiko makes a big post talking mostly to theDragoon. He really needs to make up his mind himself, rather than talking and seeing whose answer makes more sense. The reason is this is LYLO. Scum can say whatever they want and not care about having to live another day. They just have to sound good, and they win. At this point it’s most important to look back at the game as a whole and answer questions like:
Whose actions make most sense from a scum perspective? Who has the scummiest connection to the flipped mafia? Does it make sense that both these players are alive right now? (Better players than me can probably chime in here since I’ve only been to LYLO once).
The point is, as town in this final stage of the game, you have to rely on yourself and on your reads, and when you decide who is most likely to be scum, you have to convince the townie to believe your case. The scum wants to appear like he’s doing this, but try to vote the person he thinks he will be able to most likely get the majority vote on. He will say everything and anything he can to trick the remaining townies.
theDragoon posts, in one post: “After the n1k0 flip, I really thought that Valenius was town but now everything is adding up to Valenius being mafia.” AND “In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia.” If I were in LYLO with theDragoon I’d lynch him every time because he is not making sense. There is only one mafia at this point.
Valenius posts a masssssssive post and to be honest I don’t know what he said cuz I stopped reading when I realized it was a novelette. This post basically confirms him as town. Like, is scum going to post that giant wall? No way. That said, the post ends without any sort of conclusion. This makes me very sad. I have no idea which side Valenius is taking at the end of that, and I doubt even if I did read the whole thing whether it would be clear at that time either.
I don't actually finish up to the end of the last day because I haven't had the time. Other people can comment if they will.
I skimmed through the thread until D2 to get a overall grasp what was going on in the game. On the people i coached:
Cavalinho: I think you were the towniest person in the game on D1. The lynch was awful and it's partly my fault i did not advice my players on how important consolidation is as town will never lynch mafia with 2 votes. I don't know what people found scummy in you, in my opinion there was nothing (maybe get a second opinion from suki's write-up etc.). You were able to (correclty) re-evaluate your stance on Amiko and your vote ended up on scum. Maybe try to be more convincing if it seems like people don't buy your case? That's like the only thing i have to say.
Lord Tolkien: I suggest you read what suki wrote about your play on D1 because i totally agree. You focused on unimportant things and made really bad plans like "lynch me then lynch this guy when i flip town". That's not how you find and lynch mafia. After D1 i think you played really well and there was nothing wrong about your play. Try to focus on finding mafia on D1 rather than setup or plans, you can never game the setup and people will never buy any "lynch me and then lynch this guy" martyr-y things, and if they do and you are wrong it's gonna be a disaster. If you can integrate your after-D1 playstyle to D1 you'll be fine!
Beneather: Honeslty there is not much to say. I think your posts on D1 were fine and townie, after that you disappeared from coach QT and apparently also mostly from the game so i don't really know what else to say.
Overall I think you played a decent game. Your lynch target was the one that got lynched every time and you ended up being right twice, only contributed to a mislynch once, and got yourself out from under the noose many times. Albeit hopefully in the future you don't end up there as much, its definitely a good skill to learn early, especially when you move onto playing as mafia.
Let's talk about your day one real quick: I think you had a pretty weak opening that showed a lack of confidence that carried through for a while. I would always advise to shy away from describing your experience unless it is in response to a question where it is actually relevant (for example someone's question to IAmRobik after he said something about the setup and the # of mafia). Since this is a 48 hour cycle game and people from all timezones play, 3 hours is not enough time to give for lurkers to show themselves, so calling them out specifically is just going to look weird. If you want to suggest talking about whether or not to kill lurkers thats fine and sometimes it is the most relevant starter topic.
The lack of confidence that i'm referring to is how you kept saying "the only information we have so early on day1 is __". The most important thing to do on early day1 is create information by pressuring or questioning motives. You did that onto cavalinho pretty quickly. If I were you, I would have attached a vote maybe and took a more aggressive tone:
On February 17 2014 05:34 Amiko wrote: I think this early the only information we have is on ourselves - votes change too much to mean anything unless you give some kind of reasons for your actions. So I am glad to explain why I may vote for people (being idle) or the only town read I had at the time (Lord Tolkein asking about innocent child).
I don't like OneKing's reasoning for voting me, though - (1) you want to discourage long posts, which I think hurts town (2) you classify saying you are town as scumsided rather than neutral (3) you claim (probably joking) that you are clear, and (4) providing the time you shouldn't expect posts from me (morning MST) merely provides a time, I'm sure there are times you sleep/commute as well and I would like to know them so you don't have an excuse for silence down the line. That said, I think OnceKing is acting slightly townsided because he has at least started some discussion by giving a reason for his vote, even if it is misguided.
Moving forward, I see Cavalinho's post as scummy - Cavalinho, what were your reasons for wanting to lynch me? The same reasons as OnceKing, or is there anything else to add? If you wanted to suggest voting me, why not suggest it in your earlier post?
But the way you did it was fine to, maybe even better, who knows. Your followup shouldn't necessarily be to call him scummy for attaching his vote without elaborating, but it should be to check his reaction. I actually think his reaction to it is fine and relatively townie, if someone gets angry early and fast for a vote and thinks your argument is bad that's more likely to be a townie then a mafia (obviously depending on the person). From here on you improve, but I think your reasoning for lynching cavalinho was very weak and doesn't make him mafia. You should re-look at your case on him and decide what you would have done differently and maybe who you would have rather pushed. You somewhat tunneled him during this day. There were quite a few players who were lurking as well, and lurking hard till the end. The pressure on them was non-existent and therefore they could just sit there and watch. N1k0 would have died in any other game on day1 for his play.
After you got cavalinho lynched, you did a really really nice summary post of people's votes and their opinions of Cav. However, you focused a lot on how "they could have saved cav" rather than whether or not they were trying to push the thread away from cav and onto their scumread. That's more townie.
Moving forward, you spend a lot of time discussing and contemplating WIFOM and blue roles. I think it would serve you well to try to reduce your post size unless you are writing cases or responding to multiple things. You'll be able to get your thoughts out their faster and engage people in the thread more actively. You did a much better job engaging the thread later on and actively questioning people.
In LYLO I think you played very well, though I think you should have considered valenius' vote on n1k0 early on in day2 a lot more townie. It was very genuine and very early in which I don't think mafia partners would have bussed that early when there was not much discussion at night. You should have weighed that a lot more heavily then you did, along with other people too (lord tolkien actually painted it as scummy T_T). Regardless, you got the right target in the end. I don't really understand why you felt your dragoon case was so weak on n3 because it really was actually very very good.
On February 28 2014 05:57 kitaman27 wrote: Waiting to hear back from a few people. Still looking for the next host. Thanks to those who have posted their post game thoughts!
The most important thing I think you need to work on is your confidence. Your day1 was full of "i'm not sure if I should be posting this" which I think indirectly earned you a lot of scumreads from others T_T. Some people have told me the most important thing to appearing townie is to not care about your towniness and just focus on finding scum. That confidence improved throughout the game fortunately, and led to scum getting lynched d2 on your account. I said you were probably going to be the most suspicious target on d2 based off of your weak d1 and vote, and you were able to successfully and quickly dispatch that. You had a clear plan going into the rest of the game and it worked, you should try to emulate that throughout the rest of the game as well.
I think it would help if you tried to start the interactions with others a lot more. I was trying to emphasize asking questions to others throughout the game because that helps to develop your reads. During Day1 especially, you kept expressing frustration at not being able to develop any scumreads or reads in general. I think that's a big problem in newbie games, because people don't know how to generate their own content. You need to ask direct questions to people that have clear purpose. Ask them to expand on their reasoning for something they said, ask them to expand on their scumread of X or townread of Y. This can help you understand their motives and whether or not it is scummy or not. If you think their read on X is unreasonable and they can't explain it better in your eyes then that is reason to suspect them. Your entire day1 was spent responding to people and not attempting to develop your reads beyond those responses, which is actually a pretty scummy way to play (simply responding to whenever your name is mentioned). You were so wrapped up with looking townie that you ended up looking scummy ^_^
The major point I want to leave you with about the D1 is the fact that you called out n1k0 and you clearly wanted him to post and actually caught him actively lurking. After that, you forgot about him. You then wrestled with who you were going to vote for, and ended up voting Robik with very little fleshed out reasoning. If you are unsure, best to go with a lurker like n1k0 or beneather. Targets who are likely going to get lynched. You need to put your vote where it will actually matter, and not on someone who is pretty clearly not going to get lynched.
Further down in the game, I think you gave waaaaaay too little scum points against dragoon for not voting on n1k0 on day2 and having little reasoning for it and actually voting for you. Similar to the fact that you should have been GIVEN more townie points for starting the bandwagon on n1k0 rather than taken away (I really don't understand how people were trying to twist that into a scummy way to push n1k0 lol). Regardless, you played well after day1 and based on your experience now I would think you should be confident going into your next game if you chose to continue playing (which you should!!!)
100% of the time that someone is lynched with the same number, or less, of votes as there are living mafia that player will flip town. Consolidation is key to a good day one.
EPT
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