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Newbie Mini Mafia LII - Page 14

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Cavalinho
Profile Joined February 2014
United States946 Posts
February 18 2014 03:22 GMT
#261
Oh, nevermind, I see it.

Well, goodbye. I'm going to be very angry at the lot of you when this game is done.
Spectaticle
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
February 18 2014 03:24 GMT
#262
On February 18 2014 12:22 Cavalinho wrote:
Oh, nevermind, I see it.

Well, goodbye. I'm going to be very angry at the lot of you when this game is done.

Enjoy the spectator QT (I'm fairly certain there is one).
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
February 18 2014 03:27 GMT
#263
So I guess we're allowed to talk. I suggest not going into too much detail about your reads and stuff because it may point mafia in the direction of a night kill that they want to make. All I'll say is that I was very staunch about not wanting to lynch cavalinho and that he was one of my top town and I'm highly disappointed that he was lynched.
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
February 18 2014 03:32 GMT
#264
I think at least we should agree to put an end to the OMGUS'ing, and adopt a formal system of lynching. We've got 24 hours, so we can definitely get it organized before tomorrow.

If you think someone's mafia (or is worth investigating), put it up for a vote. After another player seconds, and we all collectively examine that person's filter, The person making the claim presents his case, the defendant presents his rebuttal, everyone gets to ask questions. Closing the case for the day can be done after there are no more questions, and after (say, 3-4 votes).

We can keep multiple cases open at once, as well, perhaps.

Any objections, or amendments to make?
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
February 18 2014 03:34 GMT
#265
I would also suggest re-reading Cav's filter and debate what he says in it, and see what we can extrapolate (let's not talk about it until Day and night actions are being conducted).
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
February 18 2014 03:40 GMT
#266
I disagree Tolkien
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
February 18 2014 03:41 GMT
#267
Also, the fact that there were 3 people with 2 votes is really crappy for us because we can't really analyze the wagons that formed because there were no real wagons.
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
February 18 2014 03:42 GMT
#268
On February 18 2014 12:40 IAmRobik wrote:
I disagree Tolkien

What do you disagree about?
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
February 18 2014 03:48 GMT
#269
Having people go in a strict order is super scummy and an easy way for mafia to control the way the game goes.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
February 18 2014 03:49 GMT
#270
Also, there were no n0 actions and calavinho wasn't a town power role, so there's no real reason to delve deep into what he said other than if you want to create mislynches...I say this knowing that I'm town and he thought I was leaning scummy, so I know his reads aren't spot on.
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
February 18 2014 03:58 GMT
#271
On February 18 2014 12:48 IAmRobik wrote:
Having people go in a strict order is super scummy and an easy way for mafia to control the way the game goes.

Alright, I can see what you mean by that. I'll drop the suggestion.

On February 18 2014 12:49 IAmRobik wrote:
Also, there were no n0 actions and calavinho wasn't a town power role, so there's no real reason to delve deep into what he said other than if you want to create mislynches...I say this knowing that I'm town and he thought I was leaning scummy, so I know his reads aren't spot on.

So you're saying we can't learn anything from them? There are issues with his filter, in that his posts are greatly focused on Amiko in particular, until his relatively unreasoned n1k0 switch.

We can talk about it tomorrow after we have more information due to night actions, but it shouldn't be salvageable.
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
February 18 2014 03:59 GMT
#272
*unsalvageable.
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
Amiko
Profile Joined February 2014
United States1725 Posts
February 18 2014 04:56 GMT
#273
For now I think we should try to look at the votes and discussion of Cavalinho during the day.

I think it's clear I was the most outspoken against Cavalinho. I was wrong, though I think I provided a lot of my analysis on him so I hope you understand why I reached that conclusion.

I'm not certain what to read into the votes, but here's one line of analysis to offer up.

I would like comments on what I write, but what I would like more is to see someone else try to give some comments on the votes.

--

Tolkien seemed to read him as town in the following posts:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20813953
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20814229

However, he does note he is suspicious of Cavalinho in this post
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821031

theDragoon stated he had a strong town read on Cavalinho here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20816693
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257

IAmRobik stated a strong town read on Cavalinho in these posts:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819310
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819462
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819671

n1k0:
Reads Cavalinho as more likely to be red here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819851

Valenius:
Reads Cavalinho as more town here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20820162

OnceKing
I don't think he weighs in too strongly one way or the other, but does seem to lean scum here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821149

Beneather
No comments re: Cavalinho

---

So, theDragoon, IAmRobik, and Valenius read Cavalinho as town/very town. So, I want to look at why they didn’t move their vote to someone else to avoid Cavalinho being lynched and if the play was consistent.
I’ll mention each of the three for completeness’ sake, but I think IAmRobik is the only one that gives me ground for suspicion. theDragoon seems consistent. Valenius doesn't give me enough to make a read.

theDragoon only could have saved Cavalinho by voting for n1k0. He voted for Lord Tolkein
theDragoon does have a slight scumread of n1k0 here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257), but that’s all I see on him.
I can’t say his vote was inconsistent based on this.

Valenius
Valenius could have saved Cavalino by voting for Tolkein or n1k0.

Valenius reads Tolkein as town here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20815145
I didn’t see anything else on the two.
Valenius doesn’t say any read of n1k0 either way – he does draw n1k0 into posting, at least.
I can’t say much for him either.

--
So, this is one I would like some responses to, particularly from IAmRobik.

IAmRobik
IAmRobik could have saved Cavalinho by voting for Tolkein.
IAmRobik states dislike for Tolkein in the following post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819400

More importantly, he also lists Tolkein as his #2 scummiest and lists Cavalinho as his most town (after himself) in this post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819671

On the one hand, IAmRobik did vote for the person he thought was the scummiest, so I think there is consistency. But, I think if I were in IAmRobik’s position, I would have considered changing my vote to Tolkein to preserve my most town and lynch my second most mafia.
What do you guys think?


The other thing I'll say is, tomorrow I really think we need to narrow our focus on a smaller group of people. If the highest vote count for anyone is only two people, we are too split. Mafia's votes can affect the result too much, and there's no clear direction town is taking.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
February 18 2014 05:35 GMT
#274
NO...STOP TALKING ABOUT THE GAME. WHAT ARE YOU DOING!?!?!?
theDragoon
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada307 Posts
February 18 2014 06:00 GMT
#275
@Amiko I felt like I had a better scum read on LT than I had for n1k0. I asked Cav about why he had such a strong feel for n1k0 scum but he didn't return in time to answer. At this point LT is still my top scum read but I really would've liked if Cav answered my question in time to give me some light on his thoughts on n1k0.
N1k0
Profile Joined June 2011
Uruguay1075 Posts
February 18 2014 15:30 GMT
#276
Damn i really thought Cavalinho was red as he got more and more defensive towards the end of the day.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
February 18 2014 17:40 GMT
#277
Happy birthday thedragoon. As a present, I will not push your lynch today.
Amiko
Profile Joined February 2014
United States1725 Posts
February 18 2014 21:27 GMT
#278
IAmRobik, it's ok with me if you want to wait until day post to comment on my questions on your vote since night ends in about six hours. But, I think we should talk about the game during the night. I feel we should avoid saying (1) if we think someone softclaimed a town role, or (2) if we think someone is very town because those could help direct kills. But, I think analysis should come now, if you have any - if we die in the night, we won't get to post it, and we shouldn't let the conversation stop when we finally have some definite information (the vote list and Cavalinho's flip).
I do agree with you about the vote splits, though, we can't really look at a bandwagon because of the vote splits. Your vote is the only thing that's really struck me so far, but I might try to take another approach later and see if it goes anywhere.

theDragoon
Happy birthday theDragoon! Let's play pin the tail on the mafia at your party :3

On February 18 2014 15:00 theDragoon wrote:
@Amiko I felt like I had a better scum read on LT than I had for n1k0. I asked Cav about why he had such a strong feel for n1k0 scum but he didn't return in time to answer. At this point LT is still my top scum read but I really would've liked if Cav answered my question in time to give me some light on his thoughts on n1k0.


Fair enough. I included the discussion of theDragoon and Valenius because I went through the analysis on all three, but only IAmRobik's actions struck me as questionable. If all three had votes that seemed inconsistent it might be less remarkable.

Formals
I don't really like the 'formal' idea from Tolkien. I am worried that it would let people direct the conversation too much.
I do think we need to focus more in day 2. But, I'm not really convinced the system you suggested is the best way. I think if someone posts a strong case, town will (hopefully) examine that case and decide where they lie.

Since there are still some people with very few comments, I think we should make them comment more.

On that vein,
n1k0
n1k0, I don't think I've pushed on your actions very much. Your posts don't give me to much to work with, which I dislike. Let's start here:

1) Given the information you have right now, who are three people you think could be potential lynches tomorrow and why?

2) I put a post above discussing Robik's vote. What do you think of my analysis on that vote?

3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently.
If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). Where do you think mafia would tend to vote?

Please remember, if your post says you read someone as very town, it may be better to wait until day 2 to post.

--

Does anyone else have any analysis we can try to take from the votes? If you want to wait until day that's alright, I'll try to read and respond once I get home.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
February 18 2014 21:55 GMT
#279
Dude...it was nearing the end of the day, but there were people around and I thought they would see the light and vote for the obvious mafia instead of the obvious town. Unfortunately, you had your blinders on because of how he focused on you to change your mind. That's not my fault. That's yours.
Amiko
Profile Joined February 2014
United States1725 Posts
February 18 2014 22:46 GMT
#280
On February 19 2014 06:55 IAmRobik wrote:
Dude...it was nearing the end of the day, but there were people around and I thought they would see the light and vote for the obvious mafia instead of the obvious town. Unfortunately, you had your blinders on because of how he focused on you to change your mind. That's not my fault. That's yours.


Who did you think would switch?

Where did you think they would switch to?

On February 18 2014 11:07 IAmRobik wrote:
I wanted to see if anyone put n1k0 in their town list after I said the above, but no one did. My opinion on n1k0 hadn't changed before of that post, nor did I think that he was town based off of the fact that no one posted after his one post. I still think he's scummy and think he's one of the better lynches for today

##vote: n1k0


What made you change your view of n1k0 as scummy and one of the better lynches of the day to an obvious mafia?
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