EPTUntil very late in the day here were his only two meaningful posts:
On February 18 2014 00:39 N1k0 wrote:
Oh i have been lurking since i dont feel like i have something solid to contribute yet.
Oh i have been lurking since i dont feel like i have something solid to contribute yet.
On February 18 2014 00:43 N1k0 wrote:
The one read i have is IAmRobik not being a vanilla townie, whether that means hes red or blue i have no idea yet.
The one read i have is IAmRobik not being a vanilla townie, whether that means hes red or blue i have no idea yet.
Keep in mind that by this time I've already attacked Amiko, then withdrawn my vote, then turned around and had much of my argument with LT. And yet the person he has a read on is IAmRobik? Then I pressed him to have an opinion here:
On February 18 2014 02:54 N1k0 wrote:
Amiko
He's more likely to be town than maf, in the case hes red hes more likley to be Godfather than Roleblocker or Goon( tho i dont think theres any roleblockers since we are only 9 players) so i wouldnt waste an investigation on him since him being a Goon is the less likely scenario.
Why do i think he likely to be the Godfather in the scenario he is mafia? because of him trying to drive the conversation at the start of the day and then fading away. That being said i feel hes more likely to be town because of the fact that he hasn't been trying to deflect the threats he has received, but instead he been posting with the interest of town in his mind instead of trying to save himself.
Cavalinho
At the moment i feel like hes the most likely to be a red since his fast jump on OnceKing's accusation of Amiko, i feel like he saw an opportunity to get some traction behind a lynch early and jumped on it. In the case Cavalinho ends up being red that would probably mean OnceKing is town since i dont think they would both vote so quickly on the same target if they both were mafia.
Lord Tolkien
I dont really know what to think, hes trying hard to get someone lynched and as soon as he saw the case against Amiko losing traction he switched his stance and went against OnceKing. He's seems to be pushing for any lynch as long as its one that would have an important effect on the lynch on d2 which i feel worried about since we dont really know how many mafia there are and getting a townie (or even a blue) lynched against 3 reds would put us on a hard position. Ultimately i'm leaning to think hes town since he appears to be ok with him getting lynched as long as it results in a lynch of OnceKing on d2 who he believes to be mafia (tho he could be bluffing).
OnceKing
I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town.
In the possible scenario that im wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone.
For the momment im gonna go with the
##vote Cavalinho
but i'm not too confident on it
Amiko
He's more likely to be town than maf, in the case hes red hes more likley to be Godfather than Roleblocker or Goon( tho i dont think theres any roleblockers since we are only 9 players) so i wouldnt waste an investigation on him since him being a Goon is the less likely scenario.
Why do i think he likely to be the Godfather in the scenario he is mafia? because of him trying to drive the conversation at the start of the day and then fading away. That being said i feel hes more likely to be town because of the fact that he hasn't been trying to deflect the threats he has received, but instead he been posting with the interest of town in his mind instead of trying to save himself.
Cavalinho
At the moment i feel like hes the most likely to be a red since his fast jump on OnceKing's accusation of Amiko, i feel like he saw an opportunity to get some traction behind a lynch early and jumped on it. In the case Cavalinho ends up being red that would probably mean OnceKing is town since i dont think they would both vote so quickly on the same target if they both were mafia.
Lord Tolkien
I dont really know what to think, hes trying hard to get someone lynched and as soon as he saw the case against Amiko losing traction he switched his stance and went against OnceKing. He's seems to be pushing for any lynch as long as its one that would have an important effect on the lynch on d2 which i feel worried about since we dont really know how many mafia there are and getting a townie (or even a blue) lynched against 3 reds would put us on a hard position. Ultimately i'm leaning to think hes town since he appears to be ok with him getting lynched as long as it results in a lynch of OnceKing on d2 who he believes to be mafia (tho he could be bluffing).
OnceKing
I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town.
In the possible scenario that im wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone.
For the momment im gonna go with the
##vote Cavalinho
but i'm not too confident on it
Pretty much his summary of everyone is "I don't know, could be town or could be mafia." How's it constructive to just have no opinion on anyone? He says Amiko might be Godfather using the same reasoning LT said I might be Godfather (not original content), uses the same argument that Amiko used against Cavalinho (once again, not original), then on the topic of LT and me he just doesn't have an opinion or is reluctant to give one other than "uhhhhhh not mafia i guess"
Let's go back and look at what Cavalinho posted.
On February 17 2014 16:57 Cavalinho wrote:
[...]
And OnceKing is my strong townread as of right now. I see absolutely no reason for anyone to vote him for any reason, so Lord Tolkein voting him makes my stomach churn.
[...]
[...]
And OnceKing is my strong townread as of right now. I see absolutely no reason for anyone to vote him for any reason, so Lord Tolkein voting him makes my stomach churn.
[...]
See how he, as Valenius stated, openly aligns himself with me? He just plainly says that he thinks I'm town and that LT is scummy in the other parts of the same post.
On the other hand n1k0 just posts a bunch of stuff looking doubtfully at both of us, then reluctantly comes up with the most hesitant "reads" of all time, and proceeds to (meekly) vote for Cavalinho.
We can see the trend of meekness continues to stick out:
On February 18 2014 09:38 N1k0 wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
I'll try to respond to the doubts you have but ill be brief since im heading out
First about Amiko, i started feeling him to be a red but as the day went on this suspicion went lower and lower, currently i believe him to be town, the reason i think that if he is red he's likely to be godfather is that since he tried to start the conversation which would most likely bring attention to himself which if he were red would make him vulnerable to not only getting lynched but also an investigation (which would not be a problem if he were godfather), but as i said i feel he is more likely to be town that mafia at the moment.
Why Cavalinho and not you, Cavalinho seems way more defensive than you do, and you argue with the town in mind instead of trying to save your own ass, even saying that what good could actually come out of your lynch (tho you could be a really good bluffer), plus i feel like Cavalinho jumped way too fast behind OnceKing's acusation of Amiko, 10 minutes after OnceKing's post looks like he saw an opportunity to get traction behind someone and jumped on it before it could fade away.
I agree with you that my indecisive vote is a really scummy thing to do, but i was just being honest about it, i am not sure of his mafianess but i feel like he is the most likely one to be at the time.
Im heading out now, but ill try to come back before the end of the cycle.
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 18 2014 09:10 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Fine. For you cal, I'll do one last analysis of it, and be extra critical of his post.
I addressed this before: his initial post is not enough to condemn him as godfather, and he didn't "fade away". It can be construed as scummy yes, but the other conclusions aren't the best. He was indeed deflecting the threats at the time of his case opening, and attempting to explain his reasoning.
Your argument is mostly just about his bandwagoning. Is there any other reason you're voting him over, say, me? I would like an explanation.
My issue with this underlined section is that I swapped my stance against OnceKing after he swapped over to me, I think that's pretty clear. I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning, and it was solidified after the random move onto me (and indicated as such before he pushed onto me).
You are correct: I'm looking for a lynch on Day 1 that will have the most impact for town in Day 2, given the unlikelihood of us actually lynching scum. If I'm that lynch, so be it, I'm fine with it.
Based on your analysis, the extrapolation is that we should be lynching me Day 1, so we can get a clear picture of OnceKing and lynch him, or progress onto Cal Day 2 if I ended up turning red.
I still don't buy this, as being the first one to throw the stone, and then not really committing to the case, is just as readily done by a godfather looking to misdirect town attention; first onto Amiko, and then about-face onto me, after I gave my read about him either being town or possibly godfather. If I ended up green or blue, no suspicion would've been cast onto him if I wasn't being so vocal about a double-lynch (or vig shot at night if I turned up green). He was directly pushing hard onto me until I brought that up; now he's just referencing it in passing instead of actively pushing a case (like Amiko, again), and that I think is damning. His opinions are fairly unclear, and without strong reasoning involved thus far.
But it again is just me, and people don't believe me.
I also don't see why there needs to be three mafia with him being the first one to throw an accusation. That's a needless extrapolation.
Very indecisive, potential for yourself to pull it out later and say you weren't sure. Personally, I take it scummy; indecisive votes are my pet peeve. Decide on a vote and be decisive about it.
I'll open this up as a possible valid avenue of lynch and be willing to move my vote to him if everyone else decides upon it, but there's very little time and I'm expecting Cav or me (currently it appears to beCav) to be lynched.
Fine. For you cal, I'll do one last analysis of it, and be extra critical of his post.
I addressed this before: his initial post is not enough to condemn him as godfather, and he didn't "fade away". It can be construed as scummy yes, but the other conclusions aren't the best. He was indeed deflecting the threats at the time of his case opening, and attempting to explain his reasoning.
Your argument is mostly just about his bandwagoning. Is there any other reason you're voting him over, say, me? I would like an explanation.
My issue with this underlined section is that I swapped my stance against OnceKing after he swapped over to me, I think that's pretty clear. I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning, and it was solidified after the random move onto me (and indicated as such before he pushed onto me).
You are correct: I'm looking for a lynch on Day 1 that will have the most impact for town in Day 2, given the unlikelihood of us actually lynching scum. If I'm that lynch, so be it, I'm fine with it.
Based on your analysis, the extrapolation is that we should be lynching me Day 1, so we can get a clear picture of OnceKing and lynch him, or progress onto Cal Day 2 if I ended up turning red.
I still don't buy this, as being the first one to throw the stone, and then not really committing to the case, is just as readily done by a godfather looking to misdirect town attention; first onto Amiko, and then about-face onto me, after I gave my read about him either being town or possibly godfather. If I ended up green or blue, no suspicion would've been cast onto him if I wasn't being so vocal about a double-lynch (or vig shot at night if I turned up green). He was directly pushing hard onto me until I brought that up; now he's just referencing it in passing instead of actively pushing a case (like Amiko, again), and that I think is damning. His opinions are fairly unclear, and without strong reasoning involved thus far.
But it again is just me, and people don't believe me.
I also don't see why there needs to be three mafia with him being the first one to throw an accusation. That's a needless extrapolation.
Very indecisive, potential for yourself to pull it out later and say you weren't sure. Personally, I take it scummy; indecisive votes are my pet peeve. Decide on a vote and be decisive about it.
I'll open this up as a possible valid avenue of lynch and be willing to move my vote to him if everyone else decides upon it, but there's very little time and I'm expecting Cav or me (currently it appears to beCav) to be lynched.
I'll try to respond to the doubts you have but ill be brief since im heading out
First about Amiko, i started feeling him to be a red but as the day went on this suspicion went lower and lower, currently i believe him to be town, the reason i think that if he is red he's likely to be godfather is that since he tried to start the conversation which would most likely bring attention to himself which if he were red would make him vulnerable to not only getting lynched but also an investigation (which would not be a problem if he were godfather), but as i said i feel he is more likely to be town that mafia at the moment.
Why Cavalinho and not you, Cavalinho seems way more defensive than you do, and you argue with the town in mind instead of trying to save your own ass, even saying that what good could actually come out of your lynch (tho you could be a really good bluffer), plus i feel like Cavalinho jumped way too fast behind OnceKing's acusation of Amiko, 10 minutes after OnceKing's post looks like he saw an opportunity to get traction behind someone and jumped on it before it could fade away.
I agree with you that my indecisive vote is a really scummy thing to do, but i was just being honest about it, i am not sure of his mafianess but i feel like he is the most likely one to be at the time.
Im heading out now, but ill try to come back before the end of the cycle.
On February 20 2014 06:33 N1k0 wrote:
Sorry i want able to respond earlier, but here we go.
1)
I feel like right now we should be looking hard at the lurkers, Valenious, Beneather and myself mainly because of the lowest amount of information in order to form reads.
Valenious
Right now i feel like hes the most likely to be scum, this is because i feel like his posts have been the less comitted ones out of all (mainly being defensive ones), he avoided jumping on any of the 3 likely lynches on day 1 (myself, LT, Cav) and kept his vote on Robik, he could've saved Cav by switching to me or LT (who he said would've been his other choice with Amiko if he didnt vote Robik).
+ Show Spoiler +
[..]
Overall, I'd be choosing between IAmRobik / LT / Amiko. The issue with this is, I can't see LT having pushed so hard (see above) on Amiko that early in the game if they were bros.
##vote IAmRobik
[..]
LT/Amiko would be my other choices, and as I stated I cant get a solid read on LT, so i'm avoiding the LT/Amiko vote for the moment.
The only townie move out of him i saw was pushing me to post my thoughts.
Beneather
I feel like he contriubited a little more than Valenious but not too much. He too like valenious voted for someone out of the 3 2 vote lynces which i see as a scummy move trying to keep uncommited, when he casted his vote and posted his case on Valenious he was not likely to be lynched since this was the first acussation being thrown at Valenious there wasnt much time left on the day for there to be a 2 vote switch onto Valenious.
You asked me to list you three potential lynches for today but i dont have anyone that i read as likely scum outside of Valenous and Beneather at the moment.
I do have a strong town read on LT, i would have a moderate town read on theDragoon if it wasnt because of his vote on LT because he thought he saw a mafia slip on him.
2) Im not what post were you referring to.
3) As i said in my suspisions of Beneather and Valenous i feel like scum would love to manage to get a misslynch without commiting at all on any of the likley lynches.
I have a soft town read on you at the moment, the fact that Cav flipped green doesnt change my opinion of you because i feel like we both read him as scum because of the same reasons.
Sorry i want able to respond earlier, but here we go.
1)
I feel like right now we should be looking hard at the lurkers, Valenious, Beneather and myself mainly because of the lowest amount of information in order to form reads.
Valenious
Right now i feel like hes the most likely to be scum, this is because i feel like his posts have been the less comitted ones out of all (mainly being defensive ones), he avoided jumping on any of the 3 likely lynches on day 1 (myself, LT, Cav) and kept his vote on Robik, he could've saved Cav by switching to me or LT (who he said would've been his other choice with Amiko if he didnt vote Robik).
+ Show Spoiler +
[..]
Overall, I'd be choosing between IAmRobik / LT / Amiko. The issue with this is, I can't see LT having pushed so hard (see above) on Amiko that early in the game if they were bros.
##vote IAmRobik
[..]
LT/Amiko would be my other choices, and as I stated I cant get a solid read on LT, so i'm avoiding the LT/Amiko vote for the moment.
The only townie move out of him i saw was pushing me to post my thoughts.
Beneather
I feel like he contriubited a little more than Valenious but not too much. He too like valenious voted for someone out of the 3 2 vote lynces which i see as a scummy move trying to keep uncommited, when he casted his vote and posted his case on Valenious he was not likely to be lynched since this was the first acussation being thrown at Valenious there wasnt much time left on the day for there to be a 2 vote switch onto Valenious.
You asked me to list you three potential lynches for today but i dont have anyone that i read as likely scum outside of Valenous and Beneather at the moment.
I do have a strong town read on LT, i would have a moderate town read on theDragoon if it wasnt because of his vote on LT because he thought he saw a mafia slip on him.
2) Im not what post were you referring to.
3) As i said in my suspisions of Beneather and Valenous i feel like scum would love to manage to get a misslynch without commiting at all on any of the likley lynches.
I have a soft town read on you at the moment, the fact that Cav flipped green doesnt change my opinion of you because i feel like we both read him as scum because of the same reasons.
While the second post might LOOK good let's take a look at what he's REALLY saying.
Note the tone of fear and not wanting to stick out in his posts!
First he suggests we should look towards inactives. Wonderful! Except all he does is give names, and everyone knows who's been inactive already -- not to mention this isn't something that Amiko and I haven't already said.
Then he just parrots what Amiko and Beneather have said about Valenius, then talks about Beneather with exactly the same stuff Amiko was using with potential vote switches to save a townie Cavalinho. If he were town, shouldn't he just say something such as "ya I agree"? Why need to fake that you have something to add and type a lot when you can get your point across concisely? The only reason is because he wants to look like he's contributing.
Once again, he really refuses to point fingers except at Valenius who's already fallen under suspicion and on top of that didn't provide his own reasons to be suspicious of him, merely others' -- this might be ok had he simply said that he agreed but instead he made a big long post that boiled down to "please think I'm contributing as I bandwagon this vote".
In fact, of his three points,
1 was already brought up by others such as Amiko, LT and me (Amiko did votes and said mafia wouldn't switch, LT looked at activity and said mafia are inactive, I looked at topics of discussion and said mafia were avoiding them)
2 doesn't even mean anything
3 is repeating what he said in 1, which as I stated was already brought up. None of this is original content and it seems he's been trying his best to pretend as if he's contributing when really he isn't.
Here's another golden example of parroting what's already been said:
On February 20 2014 07:34 N1k0 wrote:
You have posted more than Beneather, but most of your post have defensive/ filler instead of giving your opinions (mainly on the topic of LT vs OK), im not saying Beneather contributed much more than you, i just feel like his post on you was a lot more committed than your posts.
Of course this was before your big post tho.
You have posted more than Beneather, but most of your post have defensive/ filler instead of giving your opinions (mainly on the topic of LT vs OK), im not saying Beneather contributed much more than you, i just feel like his post on you was a lot more committed than your posts.
Of course this was before your big post tho.
All of this is enough evidence for me to ##VOTE n1k0
