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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 21 2014 06:28 Amiko wrote: Particularly so when Valenius voted for him day 2. Quick correction: I haven't voted for Beneather. My vote is on n1k0. I listed Beneather as one of my softer mafia reads. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
theDragoon, do you believe your vote on me is better than a majority vote on n1k0? If this theory is correct, solidarity between town votes is needed. OnceKing, LordTolkien: You've both been the most vocal throughout this game so far, yet you've been very quiet for the last half day. What's up? What are you reading on the current situations? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 21 2014 06:32 Valenius wrote: Quick correction: I haven't voted for Beneather. My vote is on n1k0. I listed Beneather as one of my softer mafia reads. You're right, sorry about that. Also I think you must read much faster than me :o -- My last post was basically going to end that I conclude it's best to vote on n1k0, but I saw Beneather posted so wanted to see if I could pull anything from it. I don't, really. Beneather's post doesn't do much to change what I typed except (to me) it makes it less likely he is idle town. I don't find his post above does much of anything for my reads for or against him. On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote: Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means? I think this is a good question, but I think I should not respond until just before night 2. I am going to certainly going to try to look at vote & flips during night2, but I think your flip will have more of a bearing on who I see as town or scum tomorrow and I don't want to point to that part of the analysis just yet. (If I forget someone please poke me to remind me to post those thoughts during n2) Based on the above post and thoughts now, my preference for today's lynch is n1k0, then beneather. I will be back before the votes and probably here as the clock ticks down. ##Vote: n1k0 | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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Beneather
Canada451 Posts
##Vote n1k0 | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 21 2014 06:45 Valenius wrote: theDragoon, i'm still looking for an answer to this earlier question: OnceKing, LordTolkien: You've both been the most vocal throughout this game so far, yet you've been very quiet for the last half day. What's up? What are you reading on the current situations? I cast my vote on you before I read OnceKing's case on n1k0 and at the time you were far and away the scummiest person remaining. Right now based on what others have said about N1k0 (mainly OK's post) I have both of you as my top scum reads. To answer your question, I am willing to change my vote to n1k0 to have a majority vote on him. | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
##vote beneather | ||
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OnceKing
United States939 Posts
the situation is that n1k0 is getting lynched, there's not a whole lot of stuff to say about it (yet). He isn't even bothering to deny it. As for your scenarios I really think you're overly concerned about this -- let's just kill the scum | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 20 2014 16:09 Valenius wrote: Secondly, yes the double lynch situation put forward of lynching yourself, but only if we lynch onceking in the following day. It's a gambit I was willing to take at the time. If I turned up red, there is no reason for you to lynch him: if I turn up green, there's still no need for you to actually follow through on it, no one actually agreed to it. The trade is only bad if there are 3 mafia: if there are only 2 mafia and my read was correct, the exchange is incredibly good. Even if there were 3 mafia, it's still 2 mislynches and we lose. As we were likely going to mislynch anyways Day 1, It would've been worth it. As is, the proposal was still useful despite it's non-use for me to gauge other players and their reactions (despite my wavering as the game progressed). I'm not commenting on anything hypothetical about mafia numbers until after the flip, and any speculation right now is silly. If there are 3 mafia and a green flip, they win. If it's a green flip and they don't win, we have 2 mafia. If red flip, either 1 mafia (most likely) or 2. No use talking about it. The flip will determine the course of the game and how the effective endgame will play out. Depending on the flip, the vigi (if we have one) should shoot tonight or tomorrow night 100%. If green, and we don't lose (we most likely won't lose), I would shoot their scummiest read tonight. 50% chance of hitting scum, skewed by reads. If red, up to you. On February 21 2014 05:54 Beneather wrote:You say that you have a strong read on Cavalinho being town but you keep your vote on Robik instead of trying to save the obvious town Cavalinho. It still doesn't make sense to me( I think someone brought this up but whatever). His post that he went to sleep makes sense, given timezone and vote distribution at the time, despite the errors in his defense. The reasoning clears. On Tolkien his read is very town to me and I would be shocked if he was scum. He has been the most active and his posts have a lot of content in them. Why? Your reads on everyone else? I asked for that last time and you didn't provide. I'm honestly on the fence about whom I feel is scummiest, but given N1K0 has given basically no defense for himself, I can't even in good conscience change it. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
N1K0, if you're green, STOP WHY DIDN'T YOU DEFEND YOURSELF FFSSSSSSSS~ if red, no comment | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I just want to note (again) I would like to encourage analysis in the night phase if we are still going, but if people would prefer it waits until day that is okay with me. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Day Two Final Vote Count Valenius: (1) theDragoon N1K0: (5) Valenius, OnceKing, Lord Tolkien, Amiko, Beneather Beneather: (1) N1K0 At this point N1K0 has been lynched | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Night Two N1k0 the mafia goon has been lynched. Night actions are due in | ||
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OnceKing
United States939 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think this flip gives us some good info. For the moment these are the questions I am thinking about. We can talk about them d2 if you guys prefer (or maybe put it in a last minute nightpost). (1) Is there any reason why n1k0 didn't try claiming a town role to try to save himself? (2) Do you think it is more likely mafia joined the vote on n1k0 (all but theDragoon) or voted Valenius (theDragoon) (3) How good does this feel (spoiler: really good) | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 21 2014 12:25 Amiko wrote: n1k0? more like d2k2! (day 2 kill 2) I think this flip gives us some good info. For the moment these are the questions I am thinking about. We can talk about them d2 if you guys prefer (or maybe put it in a last minute nightpost). (1) Is there any reason why n1k0 didn't try claiming a town role to try to save himself? (2) Do you think it is more likely mafia joined the vote on n1k0 (all but theDragoon) or voted Valenius (theDragoon) (3) How good does this feel (spoiler: really good) I would do so if you believe you are a potential mafia target. I'll try and do so this night (almost did it last night, but didn't feel it was necessary given probable mafia kills), but we'll see. I'd need to think about 1) and 2) after sleep. 3) | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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OnceKing
United States939 Posts
2) I think the mafia bussed him. Of course there's no way to know this but I'm reminded of this: XXXVIII Boot Camp/Analysis. Here's what Ver said on the topic: So as soon as we hit red, that was one mafia down. Obviously that had an enormous effect on the game, because there was not one single lynch where the mafia team mobilized their forces to take us on in the thread and in the voting booth at once. Instead every single time they hurriedly stepped to the side and said 'please, go right ahead and kill my buddy good sir.' Pretty awesome right? Looking forward I think my top suspects/people I'm looking at hardest will be inactives (obviously) and people who were very hesitant or reluctant to vote for N1k0 who (imo) had a pretty clear cut case against him. My strongest town read is LT (hilarious how I would never have said this day 1) with the way he's been posting since he's being forward and making a lot of sense. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
Feels good to lower mafia to one. I dont believe theres any possibility of 3, theyd have played out the theory I posted. | ||
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