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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 22 2014 12:21 theDragoon wrote: Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2. No idea. Mods, can doctor use the save on himself? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On February 22 2014 12:23 Valenius wrote: Mods, can doctor use the save on himself? No. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
4 town vs. 1 mafia. Even if we mislynch Beneather, we should have 2 town vs 1 mafia tomorrow. On February 22 2014 11:51 Lord Tolkien wrote: I would currently advocate being ready to claim blue roles Day 3 (at worst, Day 4), and for Vigi (if we have one) to shoot either tonight or Day 4 night. Here's what I think re claims, tell me if you agree: If cop has a red check, they should claim. If the mafia counterclaims, we lynch both players and win. If cop has green checks then I'll leave it to him to decide how to play it since there might be a godfather. On February 22 2014 12:21 theDragoon wrote: Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2. Typically they can't. If 2 town mislynch with 1 mafia remaining, then 1 town 1 mafia go into the night. If the last town is a vigi, the mafia and town shoot each other, do both sides win? (Obviously this isn't a situation to aim for, I thought of that seems funny given the win conditions in the first post) On February 22 2014 11:51 Lord Tolkien wrote: Minor correction: OnceKing stated the N1K0 case, and I started the Valenius case Day 2 (I also decided to point out N1K0 as a possible open case). Valenius started the first vote on N1K0, but the crux of the case was made by OnceKing. Yeah sorry I sometimes get you and OnceKing confused sometimes because you are a Lord and he is a King :3 Just to be clear, I agree OnceKing brought a focused case but to me that's irrelevant to why Valenius is town - I think if he was mafia he would not have put up his post attacking n1k0 here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20833101) where he names him as his top read and would not have put his vote on n1k0. If he was mafia I think he would have followed the path of discussion of OnceKing discussing theDragoon. I can understand suspicion on me given my day 2 play. I didn't feel as strongly on n1k0 as you guys did and went back and forth between the three potential votes. I'll be around tomorrow morning but out tomorrow afternoon to evening so my responses may be a little later. There's a long time until the night, though. Since I feel the most-town people aren't very contentious, maybe theDragoon and I should try to make a case on each other in case Beneather flips town? Not much to add except ##Vote: Beneather | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On February 22 2014 13:20 Amiko wrote: If 2 town mislynch with 1 mafia remaining, then 1 town 1 mafia go into the night. If the last town is a vigi, the mafia and town shoot each other, do both sides win? Because I'm evil, you both would lose | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 23 2014 03:32 Valenius wrote: Looking back through his profile, Beneather seems to have been modkilled in most of the games he's played due to inactivity. sigh. It sucks for town. Can't get a good read on him and our only option is to lynch him anyways. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 22 2014 13:20 Amiko wrote: Since I feel the most-town people aren't very contentious, maybe theDragoon and I should try to make a case on each other in case Beneather flips town? Go ahead. I've spent the last two hours looking through filters to try and find scum reads.. coming up with very little. Probably putting too much time into this game considering how it's gone~ | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
Vote Count Beneather: (4) LordTolkien, Valenius, theDragoon, Amiko Players not voting: Beneather At this point Beneather is set to be lynched Please remember to unvote after voting. The cycle ends in . PM a host if you have any questions or if you see a vote out of place. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 22 2014 12:21 Valenius wrote: oh, and are you guys planning on joining in on the next newbie game? I think I will, it's been good fun. (If any of you dare try to pull me up for not only speaking about this game..) I'm not sure, but I probably won't ^^; I do kind of want to try a larger setup though so maybe if there is one I will try that. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Night Three Beneather the vanilla townie has been lynched. Night actions are due in | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
1) There’s gotta be one mafia left. 2) All the town deaths but OnceKing have been vanilla town, so we probably still have a cop. Cases I would encourage people to try to hold reads close to the chest tonight – if we go into day 4, it’ll be 1 mafia vs 2 town, so we want to avoid letting mafia manipulate votes. During night I would still encourage people to try to make cases and challenge play. My general goal for tonight will be to try to draw out a lot of scummy things on people so we can talk about them tomorrow. If I draw a case on everyone, then who knows where my vote will end up theDragoon Day 1: Voting for a blue? theDragoon’s day one play appears a little unusual, but is largely explainable if you consider him to be mafia. During this part of the analysis, keep in mind that theDragoon’s vote day one was on Lord Tolkien. In this post he discusses Tolkien as a potential vote (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=8#156). There’s a few weird things about this post, but this stands out as scummy when discussing Lord Tolkien On February 17 2014 15:37 theDragoon wrote: He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet. Here, theDragoon is suggesting that we lynch someone who is softclaiming a blue role. If Tolkien was lynched d1 and flipped as a blue role, how would that information have helped town? This is such a weird suggestion it really throws me (and I feel bad for not criticizing it before). In case you thought theDragoon might just be scumhunting with a weird vote proposal, it’s clear he is serious about Tolkien here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257), where he casts his vote. He ultimately sets his vote on Lord Tolkien on the grounds that Tolkien references the mafia QT. I would classify the basis for his vote on Tolkien as scummy at worst, and very weak at best. saving a mafia At the end of day 1, I did some notes on who could have saved Cavalinho. While I’ll grant that theDragoon’s vote is somewhat consistent I’ll point this out: theDragoon hesitated to name n1k0 scummy, but later implied that n1k0 was his second scumread. He named Cavalinho as towny. Nonetheless, he did not move his vote from Tolkien (who he voted on with a very weak justification) to n1k0, who we know to be scum. The confusing votes from theDragoon make much more sense when you realize he is trying to avoid lynching his mafia teammate n1k0. Moving into day 2 Short Memory / Following the Scum? Day 2 theDragoon seems to forget his reads day 1. Although Tolkien was his top scum read, he starts day 2 by following the path Lord Tolkien sets before him here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297) and follows them through the day. The Choice Not Taken Something to note as we look to day 2 is theDragoon’s reads on n1k0. Basically, theDragoon continues to mention n1k0 as a potential scumread, someone who could be voted for another day. theDragoon basically argues that he now wants to lynch Valenius – if Valenius is green, then we should vote n1k0 later. However, for some reason he resists the opposite order, which would likely accomplish the same result, because of pride (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20848746). This explanation strikes me as weird – for one, it’s not using any logic/knowledge/reads, so it’s a weird justification to begin with. Second, it seems to me that the pride-saving move is to bandwagon– then if you are wrong, you are wrong with everyone else. A Decent Argument theDragoon’s reads on n1k0 also seem unusual. In this post, theDragoon says that n1k0 made a decent argument for n1k0’s vote on Cavalinho. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297). Go to this post and search for anything prior to it mentioning n1k0. You will find theDragoon’s post suggesting he sees contradictions in n1k0’s posts (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821516). You will find the posts I mentioned earlier where theDragoon says he reads n1k0 as slight scum. You’ll only find one argument from n1k0 for his vote on Cavalinho here. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=12#234) But, theDragoon specifically calls this post out as giving him a scum vibe (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257) . What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy . OnceKing I previously questioned why OnceKing wasn’t killed night 1 when he established himself as a strong town leader. I remember thinking that maybe mafia was trying to avoid hitting the targert of a medic save. But, note that here, OnceKing names theDragoon as a “definitely town” (ok to be fair he names me too) – this may explain why mafia did not target him for the n1 kill. Another possibility is that mafia (somehow?) didn’t notice OnceKing’s town presence day 1. At first this might sound silly because to me, OnceKing was firmly establishing himself as a town leader day 1. But, note this post: On February 22 2014 12:21 theDragoon wrote: Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2. This suggests that theDragoon only noticed OnceKing's town play on day 2. We know he noticed after his scumpartner n1k0 was lynched, On February 21 2014 12:49 theDragoon wrote: This feels so good, my last mafia game we had no successful lynches so it puts a huge smile on my face seeing that red text show up. OnceKing you are the MVP for this one. and OnceKing is killed that night. If you look through his filter, you'll also see theDragoon doesn’t discuss OnceKing’s towniness as much as most other players. -- That’s all I can contribute for now. It was written in a pretty long sitting so hopefully it's kind of coherent. I had fun with the little section titles at the end, lol. I do want to be clear on this post (and it’ll be the same for Tolkien when I pull one together) – I decided before I started the goal was to make a case on theDragoon. Working through this has made me review a lot of posts and I think I’ve come away with some reads that I didn’t have before (unrelated to theDragoon) so I would encourage you guys to try too :D we are going into a bona-fide 3 player standoff which is probably the coolest way a mafia game can end. As usual I'll be working tomorrow morning, if I have time in the afternoon I'll write up some notes on Tolkien or Valenius | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
@Amiko I want to convince you that you are wrong because if I don't die at night and you guys get a mislynch on me, we will lose. This post will be me explaining myself based on the points you made, so I will be using the same titles you used. Day1: Voting for a blue The quote you put on their is entirely out of context. Here is the entire post: + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2014 15:37 theDragoon wrote: I've got my eye on Lord Tolkien at this point in time mainly because of this: The problem I have with this is the soft blue claim. He's saying that a cop or similar blue role wouldn't be active on day 1 for fear of drawing attention to themselves. Then he says if he is blue, then he'd be a Veteran. I'm not really buying the whole I'm active therefore I'm a veteran thing. I feel like any townie, green or blue should try to be active so that we can gather as much info as we can. So by trying to suggest he is a blue, he can avoid 2 things: 1) getting lynched if people believe his suggestion, this works well if he's red 2) if mafia doesn't have a roleblocker and they believe he is a veteran then he avoids getting shot, he's basically banking on mafia not having a roleblocker. He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet. I was concerned at the fact that LT was basically saying that only the veteran would be active on day 1 because they feel can take a hit. What I was thinking at the time was that LT was putting fear in town from being active unless they were a veteran so that we wouldn't have as much information to gain from players posting actively. You also forgot to mention that I put myself at huge risk of being lynched if LT flipped blue and I would be instantly lynched on day 2 because of my incorrect read. If I was mafia and thought LT was a blue role and I pushed his lynch, how bad of a mafia play would that be to make on day 1? Also, about the slip regarding the mafia QT, I previously mentioned it might have been a reach on my part but it made perfect sense to me that he could have slipped up about mentioning the mafia QT, which I was never thinking of since I don't have access to it. Doesn't it make more sense for the person using the mafia QT to be the one talking about it? saving a mafia There were several people who could have saved Cavalinho, including Cavalinho himself. At that point I don't think people were thinking of who can they save because it doesn't make any sense to try saving someone who isn't a confirmed town. Even with a strong town read on someone there is always that element of doubt that they could be scum. I also posted that I was starting to have doubts on Cav here: + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=13#248 I think you forgot to mention that I had a slight scum read on n1k0 at the exact same post I voted for Tolkien. I voted Tolkien because I had a better scum read on him than I had on n1k0 since n1k0 was lurking and there wasn't much in the way of posts to get a good read on him. Short Memory/Following the Scum Did it ever occur to you that I changed my opinion on LT because of the way LT was posting? I may not have explicitly stated it by posting but in my personal notes I was leaning towards LT being town at that point. You can say the same about OnceKing, who we know is town, he also switched from scum LT to town LT. You're reaching really hard here for nothing. The Choice Not Taken I think I'm repeating myself here, I voted for the guy I had a better scum read on. How is jumping the bandwagon the pride-saving move? I had a read on Valenius, which I thought was 100% correct and I wanted to be right about this. I wanted to be the only one who got it right. Given the number of votes on n1k0, I was willing to stand out away from the pack just so I can say I was right about Val (at this point I can still be right about Val). I was also willing to switch to n1k0 if the votes were close, which I explained in a previous post saying that n1k0 red flip = more likely Val is green, but not vice versa. A Decent Argument What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth. I will be posting my thoughts on other players hopefully later on in the night or maybe after, if I survive. This is definitely shaping up to be a pretty epic mafia game and I hope to be a part of the final day. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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