Newbie Mini Mafia LII - Page 22

On February 26 2014 06:48 theDragoon wrote:

Of the three people who voted Amiko, two were night killed and one was lynched on day 1. There's no denying there's a trend in the night kills, what we have to determine is if it leads to the right direction.

On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote:
I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum.

On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote:
It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill.

Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself. Now, if I survive, it depends entirely on who dies, but I assume theDragoon dies over Amiko based on the false reads I was giving leading up to here. If I don't live, he can sit back and watch town try to lynch each other.

If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it.

Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0.

On February 25 2014 16:22 Amiko wrote:

Sorry, I am confused by your response to this one, maybe I misunderstood what you meant in the earlier post or in this one. Which post by n1k0 were you saying was a decent argument?

On February 26 2014 08:56 Amiko wrote:
I started a post but I didn’t get through nearly as much as I was hoping. More coming once I’m home, but here’s a few things I can post to keep discussion going.

Tolkien’s Scumbait Post

I guess I figured there was a chance Tolkien’s night post was mafia bait given his phrasing - if Tolkien thought I was “definitely scum” then there’s no way he could see theDragoon as “maybe scum” (because there’s just one mafia left). The important post to me is Tolkien’s second so we’ll get to that.


My Discussion of Cops
This is something I didn’t want to address in my first post because of the possibility one of you two would claim cop but I’m fine with raising it now.

Valenius mentions my reference to the cop here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20869986). My posts re: cop were just an attempt at either scumbaiting or trying to draw a bullet. I’ll explain both.

First off, I don’t think I’ve ever seen or played a mafia game without some kind of investigation role, so I came into this game assuming there would be a cop. After OnceKing flipped as doctor and I felt there were almost certainly just two mafia, I really re-examined that assumption considering the numbers of the “automatic balance tester” (http://hamumu.com/forum/showthread.php?p=263954). To explain, the numbers come out as follows:
2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +5 = town favored
1 mafia goon (-6) and 1 godfather (-7) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +4 = town favored
2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 6 vanilla town (+6) and 1 medic (+5) = 0 = balanced

Based on those numbers I concluded damn, we probably have no cop.
But, my post suggested that I felt there was probably a cop. This was to invite mafia to claim cop.

If we had two people claim cop today, then the game becomes easier – since one would be lying, we’d essentially have a confirmed town (the non-cop).
If one person claimed cop, the numbers would suggest to me that they were probably mafia faking the claim and expecting no counter claim (because no real cop is in the game).
So, if either of you claimed cop, that would have been nice.
Um… you can still claim it though :3 pls?

Alternatively, my post might make mafia think I was cop. I didn’t think this was very likely because I feel my play doesn’t look like a cop… cop Amiko probably would have checked n1k0/Beneather/Valenius given my perception of them as potentially scummy lurkers who were unlikely to be killed by mafia. But, if mafia thought I might be cop, they might hit me and leave a town player who appeared more towny (Tolkien, potentially Valenius) alive.
The post didn’t really give me any information but I can understand why my post seemed weird.
I guess I could suggest it’s more scummy that Valenius raised the point (maybe he was considering killing me or claiming cop?) but that feels like weak grounds for a read.

Night Kills
theDragoon does mention that two of the people who had initially voted for me d1 were night killed (Tolkien and OnceKing). I guess that’s true, but they didn’t even vote for me so it feels like reaching that I would want to kill them for suspecting me d1.
I don’t get any significant reads from the kill on OnceKing. From my point of view, he was an obvious kills for mafia at least because of his strong town play and because people perceived him as town.
Tolkien feels somewhat similar to OnceKing – he’s also a strong town player who people perceived as town. I think we can get a little from his kill, though, because mafia is specifically looking at a LYLO situation.
The weird think about these kills is that OnceKing didn’t get killed day 1. In other words, Robik’s death feels more significant because he was killed instead of another more town player (OnecKing). So, I’m going to focus a little more on the Robik kill.

Kill on Robik
First off, I’ll grant that IAmRobik was suspicious of confirmed scum n1k0, so there is some justification for killing him regardless of who last mafia is.

1) A mafia Amiko probably would not kill IAmRobik.
I’ve referred to my “who could have saved Cavalinho” post a few times. I’ll grant that the case wasn’t strong, but think about how a mafia Amiko would see the game. Mafia Amiko had made a case using vote analysis on IAmRobik. Mafia Amiko could push on IAmRobik day 2 hoping to get another mislynch while also appearing more town (by being proactive). In reality, the target of my n1 pressure was killed, so I ended up feeling very unsure about day 2 because the two people I had pushed on (Cavalinho & Robik) had both died and flipped town, and I wasn’t satisfied with the responses we were getting.

I’ll also note that n1k0 did start to backpack onto my points on Robik. Given that we had both just been the only two votes mislynching Cavalinho, it seems like drawing ourselves further together is just making us seem like an even more obvious team. I’ll grant there is probably some crazy WIFOM play where two mafia do the exact same thing, but that just seems like a lot of commitment for no reason… If I was mafia, I could have moved my vote off Cavalinho and gotten Tolkien lynched instead (he was the second to get two votes). I had raised a few points that made me seem him as mafia, so I think I would have had a legitimate reason to separate the mafia votes while getting a mislynch. Moreover, the mislynch would be among three people instead of just two, and I would have saved Cavalinho (who had indicated he thought I was town, even if he was a jerk about it).

Based on that, I think (1) mafia Amiko would not kill IAmRobik and (2) an Amiko & n1k0 mafia team would link themselves so much when they don’t need to do so.
2) A mafia theDragoon probably wouldn’t kill Robik

Tolkien mostly covers this, I have just a point to add below. I agree with the analysis here.



The only thing to add to this is that theDragoon also has less reason to vote for Robik because Robik called him town
(http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20820245).

3) A mafia Valenius would see Robik as a high priority kill
I stress the high priority. Ending d1, I felt like ok, OnceKing will probably die because he presented as somewhat towny, got discussion going, and didn’t tunnel on a mislynch like I did. Tolkien’s discussion (above) provides one reason that separately from n1k0, Valenius would have seen Robik as the kill.


In summary, Robik might just have been killed because he was calling out mafia n1k0. But, I still think that besides n1k0, theDragoon and I had reasons not to kill Robik, whereas Valenius had reasons to kill Robik.


--

@Valenius and @theDragoon: Did you see OnceKing as a likely kill night 1?

I gave one point regarding my day 2 activity in this post (why I wouldn’t kill Robik) but I’ll try to give you more defense of it in a later post if you see it as scummy

On February 26 2014 09:04 Amiko wrote:
@theDragoon If you answered this sorry I missed it, please do:

On February 18 2014 12:27 IAmRobik wrote:
So I guess we're allowed to talk. I suggest not going into too much detail about your reads and stuff because it may point mafia in the direction of a night kill that they want to make. All I'll say is that I was very staunch about not wanting to lynch cavalinho and that he was one of my top town and I'm highly disappointed that he was lynched.

On February 18 2014 14:35 IAmRobik wrote:
NO...STOP TALKING ABOUT THE GAME. WHAT ARE YOU DOING!?!?!?

On February 19 2014 10:35 IAmRobik wrote:

I'll respond to this after the night phase if I'm still alive. There's no way I'm discussing anything about anything during the night. Giving mafia an idea of who I think is scummy and townie to enable them to lead a lynch on someone who the majority of the town finds scummy is stupid stupid town play. If you want to talk about the weather, I can do that. If you want me to claim that I'm a cop with a vest and a shot, who can also save people, I can do that as well.

On February 20 2014 01:45 theDragoon wrote:
LT believes that the most likely mafia are the day 1 lurkers: Valenius, N1k0 and Beneather. I just went through each of their filters and Valenius has been the most active of the three but also his posts have the least amount of substance. Even Beneather pointed it out in his latest post:



I don't really have a strong scum read on Beneather because he's posted so little, so there's definitely better lynch targets than him.

N1k0 has slightly more analysis than Beneather and some parts do look towny, but some are a little bit scummy. In particular I found that his mentioning of Amiko being godfather was rather scummy (which I previously mentioned) but says later that Amiko's posts swayed him towards a town read on Amiko. He was wrong about his scum read on Cav though, but he does make a decent argument for it. I'm waiting for his next post where he says he'll reply to Amiko, but as of now I'm not getting a strong scum read on him.

I've already mentioned my thoughts on Valenius and with OnceKing and LT making their case against him, it's only made my scum read on him stronger. He's also posted very little value despite his number of posts. At this point, I think we need to start looking for scum pairs, if we get the right lynch today it might give us a lot of information on who to lynch on day 3.

##Vote Valenius

On February 18 2014 09:38 N1k0 wrote:
I'll try to respond to the doubts you have but ill be brief since im heading out

First about Amiko, i started feeling him to be a red but as the day went on this suspicion went lower and lower, currently i believe him to be town, the reason i think that if he is red he's likely to be godfather is that since he tried to start the conversation which would most likely bring attention to himself which if he were red would make him vulnerable to not only getting lynched but also an investigation (which would not be a problem if he were godfather), but as i said i feel he is more likely to be town that mafia at the moment.

Why Cavalinho and not you, Cavalinho seems way more defensive than you do, and you argue with the town in mind instead of trying to save your own ass, even saying that what good could actually come out of your lynch (tho you could be a really good bluffer), plus i feel like Cavalinho jumped way too fast behind OnceKing's acusation of Amiko, 10 minutes after OnceKing's post looks like he saw an opportunity to get traction behind someone and jumped on it before it could fade away.


I agree with you that my indecisive vote is a really scummy thing to do, but i was just being honest about it, i am not sure of his mafianess but i feel like he is the most likely one to be at the time.

Im heading out now, but ill try to come back before the end of the cycle.

On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote:


Yeah.. lol. This was either a major slip by n1k0 (a possibility given his overall play), or just trying to be townie. I'm leaning towards the former.

On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote:
Both scum voting for the same lynch on d1 does seem like an over-commitment, but it's those sort of plays that sometimes need to be made. The later votes on n1k0 (Tolkien/Amiko/Beneather) were ones I felt uneasy about. Solid cases had been made on him, so keeping the vote off doesn't serve much purpose. It puts more pressure on him to put up a good defense, which we can learn more from. (Okay, he crumbled in this case, but you'd expect a better defence).

On February 26 2014 09:20 Valenius wrote:
I posted my thoughts on the Robik kill before, but in summary. You're posting about what a mafia amiko wouldn't do? A 'Mafia Valenius' wouldn't kill the guy who only I have a vote on, who's the only guy who raised any sort of suspicions on me that are worth responding to (more than the 'you're not contributing as much as me' posts). When I left the thread for that night, there were 2 votes on Cavalinho: Yours and n1k0's. It would have been a much better play to piggyback onto your votes, and make up some reasoning based around loosely what the d1 arguments against cav were.

Instead, I had him as a town read, and kept my vote on robik (Reasoning explained at length several times throughout the thread). To then kill robik that night when i'm the only vote on him is nonsensical. If I was playing mafia, My vote wouldn't have been on someone as obscure as Robik.

On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote:
Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon.

On February 20 2014 09:24 Amiko wrote:
Valenius’ comment on my Analysis re: Cavalinho & Robik
Valenius argues here that I included a post from IAmRobik and misrepresent it as saying IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town:

I think Valenius misread the IAmRobik post he is referring to. There’s two parts of IAmRobik’s post, I think Valenius read the second without putting it in context.


Valenius’ implication that I saw Cavalinho as scum, IAmRobik is saying he agrees with me, therefore he thought IAmRobik was scum. But, if you read the post in full (the bolded, 100% part, lol) I think it is obvious IAmRobik saw Cavalinho as town so my post wasn’t misrepresenting him.

On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote:
I think i've provided more meat than you can handle, amiko. I tried my best, so sorry :p

On February 26 2014 06:48 theDragoon wrote:
Fair enough, but the difference I see between you putting Amiko in your scum reads and the other night kills were that they voted for the scum (n1k0), except LT. Also, during day 1, Amiko had three people vote for him, who later switched their votes for the final count. Of the three people who voted Amiko, two were night killed and one was lynched on day 1. There's no denying there's a trend in the night kills, what we have to determine is if it leads to the right direction.

On February 26 2014 12:35 Amiko wrote:
I think a few recent points Valenius have raised make no sense and I will highlight them here. I have a few comments to theDragoon also I’ll hit up next.

Godfather

This analysis is illogical because we both should know there is almost certainly no cop (unless you want to claim it :3). With no cop, it makes no sense for there to be a godfather (the role would serve no purpose). Thus, it doesn’t make sense to read this as a slip by n1k0 at this point in the game.

Sure, sometimes mafia may make desperate plays. But, none of the three of us would have felt desperate day 1. N1k0 and his partner each could have placed their vote on a few different people and still gotten a mislynch. Yes, mafia could vote together day 1 to get a mislynch, but there’s no reason they would group their votes when there is no cause for desperation, no need for over-commitment.

This bolded statement makes no sense. Of course mafia would want to kill someone who raised a case on them, particularly if they raised suspicions that were meritorious enough to require answering.
The point is, Robik was a weird kill for night one. But, it makes a lot more sense if the scumteam is Robik & n1k0. Keep this in mind for the next point.

Responding to this post actually made me groan. I thought to myself, that’s weird, I remember correcting someone on this exact point a day or two ago. So I looked up my post and it turns out Valenius I corrected you on this exact point earlier.
IAmRobik did read theDragoon, and he did so very strongly.

Robik read theDragoon as town.
He read me as town.
He read you as scum and he read n1k0 as scum. He died the same night.

IAmRobik did read theDragoon, and he did so very strongly.

Robik read theDragoon as town.
He read me as town.
He read you as scum and he read n1k0 as scum. He died the same night.

You gave me meat. So I made a sandwich
A SCUM SANDWICH. (YOU ARE THE SCUM) (I HAD BREAD ALREADY)

On February 26 2014 12:52 Amiko wrote:
theDragoon:
[u]Night Posts[u]
In this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20871762) you point out that I push for night actions and suggest perhaps Robik was killed because he was against night discussion.
First off, just a gut answer - that seems to me like a really low priority reason for mafia to kill someone.
Second, OnceKing got killed the same night he posted we should contribute at night, and he was killed the same night.
Third, I still have a strong feeling that talking at night is good for town. I mean honestly, we tip mafia off to our reads during the day too. 24 hours of silence in the thread would suck.

On February 26 2014 13:48 theDragoon wrote:
@Amiko
That's a good point, but we need to add up all the info we can get from Robik's death to see if we can find something that can help us. Regarding contributing at night, I'm not for a silent night but giving out too much information or saying the wrong things can bite you in the ass later.

--

If you read the posts during night 2, you can see that everyone except Beneather(doesn't really count) and OnceKing read Valenius as town. OnceKing already prepared his death bed with the big push on n1k0's lynch. If Valenius is mafia, OnceKing not giving him a town read is another reason he was killed. Valenius gains the most from OnceKing's death since the most influential town player at the time did not explicitly state that he had a town read on Valenius, even though everyone else did.

N1k0 has slightly more analysis than Beneather and some parts do look towny, but some are a little bit scummy. In particular I found that his mentioning of Amiko being godfather was rather scummy (which I previously mentioned) but says later that Amiko's posts swayed him towards a town read on Amiko. He was wrong about his scum read on Cav though, but he does make a decent argument for it.

On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote:


The post by n1k0 wasn't today.. it was early in the game. Earlier in the game we had no idea if there was a cop. Hell, we had no idea if there were 0 blue roles, or several blue roles. How can you try and compare a slip-read of earlier in the game, and pretend it's a slip-read for today? That makes no sense whatsoever.

On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote:


You say this, yet you're saying that I'm most likely to be killing robik based on his read on me for night 1? Is Day1 that much different to night 1 in that regard?

On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote:
Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon.

On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote:
In what universe does "I kinda like theDragoon's posts" equal reading him very strongly? I'm sorry if I'm being really dense here, but I can't understand where you got this conclusion from.

On February 18 2014 04:57 IAmRobik wrote:
I just haven't switched my vote yet. I do think TheDragoon is town as I expressed. I honestly forgot that my vote was on him.

##unvote

On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote:
I honestly do disagree with your entire reasoning behind this. If I were mafia, i'd be trying to blend in, not kill the person who's only raised a kind of case on me. As for "meritorious enough to require answering", I answered them because i felt they were scummy. I've gone through in great detail my thought process behind his posts. Beneather tried to point some suspicion at me too, but his post was absolutely worthless so it didn't require a response.

On February 27 2014 04:03 Valenius wrote:
Right. theDragoon, if you're mafia and you win.. fair play. You'll have completely fooled me. I have a stronger mafia read on Amiko, and i've tried combing through your filter.. but apart from the stuff posted over the last few pages (some by amiko), I really can't see anything more suspicious.