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I guess there's probably only one more thing to raise with you Valenius-
Currently I still read you as scummier than theDragoon. There is some relaxation in thinking that well, if Valenius is town and he is voting wrong (which you are) then the game is lost at this point regardless of who I vote for.
For what it's worth, even if I convince you to vote theDragoon, I will probably still vote for you, so maybe the result won't change the game. But this does at least give town a better shot at winning because I know I am town.
We've both already tried to read through theDragoon's filter and we didn't come up with much. But, if you look at theDragoon and I, I think you can at least conclude that I have been more proactively scum hunting than him - he has been mostly defensive on himself without contributing as much to the points you and I have raised on each other.
Maybe we can't make a strong argument for theDragoon as scum, but I'd at least argue you can read me as more town than him. You haven't seen theDragoon put substantial questions to either of us, and I feel you can fairly conclude that I've justified my scumread on you with more than he has. Yeah, I am probably going to vote you, but if you are town then the only way we can win is if you vote theDragoon.
I'll likely eat a quick lunch and be back in about an hour.
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I reread the thread and I'm leaning more towards Amiko being scum. I feel like he's had the more scummy filter and the weakest arguments for me and Valenius being scum and also weaker defenses for himself.
Some of the things that stood out to me were:
N1k0 discouraging cop checks on Amiko despite labeling him as likely to be godfather but still calls him town
Amiko's day 2 play was shady and his hesitant to vote for n1k0 could mean he was waiting to see if he can salvage the situation
Amiko was trying to gather info night 1 for a more educated night kill despite Robik's warning that it might help mafia
Amiko and n1k0 both voted for Cav day 1, nobody really caught on until day 4 so it was a risk worth taking
##Vote Amiko
I'm still willing to change my vote, there's been a few new posts since I reread day 4 so I'll look into those and see if I can get anything to convince me this is the right choice or not.
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Just to be clear, this is all meta argument.
WE NOW know there is no cop, but n1k0 DIDNT. That's my whole point. I'm commenting on his post as it is at the time, with the information available at that point. Nobody had a flying clue if we had a cop.
"With no cop, it makes no sense for there to be a godfather (the role would serve no purpose)."
What? The roles were chosen randomly from the pool at the start. It's even stated in the first posts. (2nd post) "This is a semi-open set-up meaning that while all of the roles possible will be displayed the number of each role in game is unknown. "
I don't know how the hosts choose roles, but I'd kinda doubt they'd interfere to specifically change a godfather to a goon. I could understand interference though if the rolling for roles brought up 8 cops and 1 godfather (shit would be funny though).
"It is possible the setup could have a godfather without a cop – this might confuse mafia into assuming there is a cop at the beginning of the game, or it might confuse town into assuming there is a cop if someone flips godfather."
I understand what you're saying here, but again i really disagree. The host should be as impartial as possible. Editing the setup to take out those roles could influence mafia play.. I don't think they'd do it.
Of course, as you've said; It is a meta discussion; I just don't think your comment on my post is really relevant to the actual content of my post, and instead just dismissing it as wrong logic based on what we now know.
Here we are talking about Valenius saying Robik never read theDragoon.
Read my entire post, not just the first sentence. It goes on to say how I think it's odd based on his later listings of you below thedragoon, purely based on amount of reads.
In my mind day 2 was picking between three people – Beneather, Valenius, n1k0.
N1k0 contributed a few posts but almost all were backpacking.
Valenius had an actual case brought against him and was responding.
Beneather contributed two posts in two days that had any substance.
I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went-
When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads.
When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads.
We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful.
We know now that Beneather was probably idle, but if he was lurking mafia I think it was realistic to think if he became a focus, he would try to throw up some kind of defense. We didn’t get any real pressure on him and we paid for it. He became a liability for town nothing to read town or scum and a potential modkill. When we lynched Beneather we had no meaningful discussion because there was nothing to meaningfully discuss.
I get that you would both be more comfortable if I joined the voted on n1k0 earlier. But, Beneather's contributions were so empty that I felt we should to try to get information from someone who had somehow gotten by without posting substantively. My posts throughout the day reflect that and I think it was good play.
Ok. only real i'd like to look at here, is your comment that n1k0 responded with reads. Looking back, all of his posts post-suspicion on him were watery. It was a mix of other people's reads, and questions to try and deflect away from him.
On your latest post; As I mentioned earlier, I really cannot see much scum on theDragoon and he's been in my town pile since before today. If theDragoon is mafia, and we both vote to lynch each other (as seems likely), then i'll apologise now in the same vein as in my last post: He completely played us, and let us argue amongst ourselves for more of today.
Everything in your post is what i've been thinking, but really: I can't base my vote, or really anything off that post. I'm hope you'll understand the reasoning for that ~ I'm sure if I'd have posted that, your reaction would be the same.
Also, you can tell my heads gone haha: I was going to say how n1k0 posted 6 minutes after you questioned him (noticed whilst looking through n1k0 filter).. double checked and it's 24hours and 6 minutes. doh.
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I just read through Amiko's day 2 post looking for his reason to lynch n1k0. Here is what he posted before voting for n1k0 in the post after this:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 21 2014 06:28 Amiko wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2014 02:09 Valenius wrote:
Amiko, whos your most likely vote target for today? I still feel it’s very tough to pick between n1k0, Beneather, and Valenius. I have been hoping that one of the three would put up something that swayed me one way or another but it hasn’t happened. At this point, though, I think it’s important that I try to put up a vote because it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect to get anything that will give me a strong read. I don’t expect Beneather to respond in a meaningful way. If Beneather is mafia, there is no real pressure on him to post something. A few people have given him soft town read, but more importantly the votes have come in on someone else ( n1k0). We can point to Beneather’s silence and ask questions to the air, but if it’s not enough to convince us to vote on him, it won’t matter to him. If Beneather is town, I don’t feel his silence is helpful to us. Since he voted to lynch Valenius day 1, I feel he has an obligation to give comments on Valenius’ day 2 comments. Particularly so when Valenius voted for him day 2. This makes me disbelieve the possibility he is a lurking town and prefer the conclusion he is idle town or mafia. In either case, I don’t expect to get anything from him that is likely to give me good reads. So, I feel a vote on Beneather is not that well founded (because of his inactivity) and unlikely to give much information (based on considering him mafia or idle town). So, I think I am deciding between n1k0 and Valentius. n1k0 and Valenius are both responding to posts and pressure, but I am not getting a strong read from either one. Generally, Valenius is more offensive, n1k0 more defensive. I understand feeling less confident in reads after day1 (since mine were wrong as well), but I feel if I were town in n1k0’s situation I would try to more actively make a case who I felt was mafia if only because I knew myself to be town. I think the same thing comes up here from n1k0- Show nested quote +On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote:
Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means? I get that this is asking questions, and that’s nice. But I feel that if you are town and you feel like the vote is going to land on you, you should be giving our reads and thoughts on the premise that town will want to consider them after you flip. At least, I think that’s what prompted me to start volunteering a lot more of my thoughts day 1. (To be fair, I don’t think Cavalinho really did that day 1, but I feel like n1k0’s vote has more momentum than his) OK I JUST REFRESHED AND SAW BENEATHER POSTED SO IM GONNA READ THAT :X
The post prior to that, he criticized n1k0 for backpacking on other people's posts
On February 20 2014 12:47 Amiko wrote:
on n1k0
I do feel that n1k0 is backpacking on other people's posts. I somehow missed that he essentially repeated my question to Robik, though (which OnceKing points out). I could see that as pressing someone to answer something they didn't answer previously, but I think I would have written it more like "what abc is asking is xyz".
He doesn't offer any sort of original argument to justify his vote on n1k0, criticizes n1k0 for backpacking, yet he does the same thing with OnceKing's post. He was also very hesitant to vote for n1k0 and does it without providing anything new, he essentially jumped the n1k0 bandwagon after seeing that there's no way for n1k0 to get out of the mess. All of this points to mafia Amiko.
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I'm back from lunch Valenius don't go to sleep yet :x
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On February 27 2014 05:31 Amiko wrote:
I'm back from lunch Valenius don't go to sleep yet :x
Still here for another few hours.
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If you believe I am mafia then:
1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1.
2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my reads
No one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options.
n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this.
if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278).
3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it.
Me voting on n1k0 doesn't make me appear more town, I even pointed out that I felt there was probably a mafia vote on n1k0 here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#363. If he was my teammate I voted for him for no reason.
I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start
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On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote:
I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start
I don't think I am, at least this doesn't feel like sleeping~
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Valenius, theDragoon's vote should be really convincing to you that he is mafia over me. Although you felt more scummy, I have to conclude he is mafia based on that post and I will not bother trying to convince him at this point.
His post totally the wrong direction for town. You are about to go to sleep. Your reads and vote will presumedly be locked in once you depart. Both theDragoon and I should be spending the last few hours we have to talk to you pressing you for reads, asking you questions, and trying to convince you of our towniness. We should be trying to get as much out of you as we can. Instead, theDragoon gives a general comment that he reread the filters and now he has decided to vote for me.
He has no questions for you, he is not trying to press anything. He posts a quick laundry list of concerns that you and I have discussed in some depth and provides no reasoning or insight as to why he decides they are scummy. Each point has been made before and each has been responded to.
theDragoon doesn't try to convince you that the responses were bad, because he can't.
ALSO WTF he notices that there are new posts but decides to vote before reading them? What's the rush? WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT
Also copchecks / godfather
Valenius, you and I went back and forth on this some. The only new point I want to raise is that the roles were secret, but there is no indication that they were random. I really don't think that a newbie game would be all random roles, anyway, I think it would be a balanced game.
Anyway even if I can't convince you that n1k0's comment is weird, theDragoon doesn't even care that we have discussed it, doesn't weigh in at all. He doesn't want more conversation on these points because your vote is on the wrong person.
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sorry I was going to write sleeping soon
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To be clear, theDragoon did "weigh in" only to the extent that he reads me as mafia from it, but he didn't provide any reasoning.
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On February 27 2014 04:56 theDragoon wrote:
He doesn't offer any sort of original argument to justify his vote on n1k0, criticizes n1k0 for backpacking, yet he does the same thing with OnceKing's post. He was also very hesitant to vote for n1k0 and does it without providing anything new, he essentially jumped the n1k0 bandwagon after seeing that there's no way for n1k0 to get out of the mess. All of this points to mafia Amiko.
Yes I did. I pointed out that I felt if he was town he would be giving his reads and thoughts so town could consider them post-flip.
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EBWOP - Yes I did is responding to asking for original argument.
(I haven't actually rechecked all the posts but I don't think anyone else raised that?)
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On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote:If you believe I am mafia then: 1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1.2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my readsNo one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options. n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this. if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278). 3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it.Me voting on n1k0 doesn't make me appear more town, I even pointed out that I felt there was probably a mafia vote on n1k0 here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#363. If he was my teammate I voted for him for no reason. I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start
One situation in which it would be a bad move to vote together is when one of you got lynched on the same day, then the other might be questioned for voting with the mafia. That early on in the game it doesn't really tell much about your alignment. You said it would be suspicious both mafia vote on the same guy, but nobody has really thought much of it until now, when you can't really trust anyone. I know that you voted Cav first, n1k0 likely followed to ensure a lynch, and it was n1k0's vote that broke the 3 way tie. Could n1k0 have voted for LT instead? N1k0 voting for Cav or LT would result in a mislynch, so why Cav instead of LT? Several players expressed having a strong town read on Cav (myself included), so it makes more sense for mafia to go for the person who is less suspicious.
By the time you had voted for n1k0, he already had 3 votes on him, the best way for you to blend in, is to follow the town and vote for n1k0 since it's highly likely he will be lynched. Like I mentioned previously, your justification to vote for n1k0 was basically non-existant and you just jumped on the bandwagon.
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On February 27 2014 06:14 Amiko wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 04:56 theDragoon wrote:
He doesn't offer any sort of original argument to justify his vote on n1k0, criticizes n1k0 for backpacking, yet he does the same thing with OnceKing's post. He was also very hesitant to vote for n1k0 and does it without providing anything new, he essentially jumped the n1k0 bandwagon after seeing that there's no way for n1k0 to get out of the mess. All of this points to mafia Amiko.
Yes I did. I pointed out that I felt if he was town he would be giving his reads and thoughts so town could consider them post-flip.
Amiko.. several posts ago you said this:
I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went-
When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads.
When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads.
We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful.
These two are just a massive contradiction.
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I just put the wrong word, it's not reads but responses. I mean look at day 2 and you will see he responded.
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On February 27 2014 06:11 Amiko wrote:
To be clear, theDragoon did "weigh in" only to the extent that he reads me as mafia from it, but he didn't provide any reasoning.
I've made plenty of posts during day 4 pointing to both you and Valenius as mafia and would not like to repeat them.
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On February 27 2014 06:21 theDragoon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote:If you believe I am mafia then: 1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1.2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my readsNo one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options. n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this. if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278). 3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it.Me voting on n1k0 doesn't make me appear more town, I even pointed out that I felt there was probably a mafia vote on n1k0 here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#363. If he was my teammate I voted for him for no reason. I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start One situation in which it would be a bad move to vote together is when one of you got lynched on the same day, then the other might be questioned for voting with the mafia. That early on in the game it doesn't really tell much about your alignment. You said it would be suspicious both mafia vote on the same guy, but nobody has really thought much of it until now, when you can't really trust anyone. I know that you voted Cav first, n1k0 likely followed to ensure a lynch, and it was n1k0's vote that broke the 3 way tie. Could n1k0 have voted for LT instead? N1k0 voting for Cav or LT would result in a mislynch, so why Cav instead of LT? Several players expressed having a strong town read on Cav (myself included), so it makes more sense for mafia to go for the person who is less suspicious. By the time you had voted for n1k0, he already had 3 votes on him, the best way for you to blend in, is to follow the town and vote for n1k0 since it's highly likely he will be lynched. Like I mentioned previously, your justification to vote for n1k0 was basically non-existant and you just jumped on the bandwagon.
If n1k0 and I were scum we had 2 votes to move. You think we would risk voting together to lynch a random town (Cavalinho) but not vote together to tie the votes and try to save a mafia?
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+ Show Spoiler +On February 27 2014 06:10 Amiko wrote:
Valenius, theDragoon's vote should be really convincing to you that he is mafia over me. Although you felt more scummy, I have to conclude he is mafia based on that post and I will not bother trying to convince him at this point.
His post totally the wrong direction for town. You are about to go to sleep. Your reads and vote will presumedly be locked in once you depart. Both theDragoon and I should be spending the last few hours we have to talk to you pressing you for reads, asking you questions, and trying to convince you of our towniness. We should be trying to get as much out of you as we can. Instead, theDragoon gives a general comment that he reread the filters and now he has decided to vote for me.
He has no questions for you, he is not trying to press anything. He posts a quick laundry list of concerns that you and I have discussed in some depth and provides no reasoning or insight as to why he decides they are scummy. Each point has been made before and each has been responded to.
theDragoon doesn't try to convince you that the responses were bad, because he can't.
ALSO WTF he notices that there are new posts but decides to vote before reading them? What's the rush? WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT
Also copchecks / godfather
Valenius, you and I went back and forth on this some. The only new point I want to raise is that the roles were secret, but there is no indication that they were random. I really don't think that a newbie game would be all random roles, anyway, I think it would be a balanced game.
Anyway even if I can't convince you that n1k0's comment is weird, theDragoon doesn't even care that we have discussed it, doesn't weigh in at all. He doesn't want more conversation on these points because your vote is on the wrong person.
I do agree on some of these, but if he assumes that we're (me & him) both voting on the mafia, then whilst there's reason to push, it's not as great as the push needed earlier imo. He's posted some on his reads.. it seems like more of a summary.
The part i've bolded: If you think i'm mafia throughout the day (which you did), then most of your focus should be on proving that to dragoon. I've tried to defend my towniness when questioned, and i've tried to draw conclusions on thedragoon, but most of my effort has been on you.
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On February 27 2014 06:27 Amiko wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 06:21 theDragoon wrote:On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote:If you believe I am mafia then: 1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1.2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my readsNo one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options. n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this. if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278). 3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it.Me voting on n1k0 doesn't make me appear more town, I even pointed out that I felt there was probably a mafia vote on n1k0 here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#363. If he was my teammate I voted for him for no reason. I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start One situation in which it would be a bad move to vote together is when one of you got lynched on the same day, then the other might be questioned for voting with the mafia. That early on in the game it doesn't really tell much about your alignment. You said it would be suspicious both mafia vote on the same guy, but nobody has really thought much of it until now, when you can't really trust anyone. I know that you voted Cav first, n1k0 likely followed to ensure a lynch, and it was n1k0's vote that broke the 3 way tie. Could n1k0 have voted for LT instead? N1k0 voting for Cav or LT would result in a mislynch, so why Cav instead of LT? Several players expressed having a strong town read on Cav (myself included), so it makes more sense for mafia to go for the person who is less suspicious. By the time you had voted for n1k0, he already had 3 votes on him, the best way for you to blend in, is to follow the town and vote for n1k0 since it's highly likely he will be lynched. Like I mentioned previously, your justification to vote for n1k0 was basically non-existant and you just jumped on the bandwagon. If n1k0 and I were scum we had 2 votes to move. You think we would risk voting together to lynch a random town (Cavalinho) but not vote together to tie the votes and try to save a mafia?
I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first.
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EPT
