EPTI have trouble saying that your filter is more town than theDragoons but his last post just seems so inconsistent with town that I can't really read it another way.
Newbie Mini Mafia LII - Page 24
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I have trouble saying that your filter is more town than theDragoons but his last post just seems so inconsistent with town that I can't really read it another way. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:30 Valenius wrote: I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first. I'm willing to point to a few things, there are responses that are easy to this, like if we linked ourselves d1, it would be too risky to vote together day 2 also. This just again stresses how terrible it would be for mafia to vote on the same person day 1. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:29 Valenius wrote: The part i've bolded: If you think i'm mafia throughout the day (which you did), then most of your focus should be on proving that to dragoon. I've tried to defend my towniness when questioned, and i've tried to draw conclusions on thedragoon, but most of my effort has been on you. I get what you are saying, but I feel like we both have acted the same way here: if you are town, you mostly focused me. I mostly focused you. I don't feel either of us was really aiming our comments at theDragoon to convince him. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently. If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). Where do you think mafia would tend to vote? We know for sure that one mafia voted on Cav, when you ask him if he thinks you're town why do you think at least 2 mafia voted for someone other than Cav? We know there's only 2 mafia or else the game would be over already. This part here sounds like you're trying to pin mafia on anyone other than you two. Why do you ask n1k0 where he thinks mafia would tend to vote? Since we know he's mafia, he'll answer that question pointing to the town players. If you're mafia it makes sense to ask this question to n1k0 since it helps point town towards the wrong people. Also, I'm pressuring you more than Valenius because there's more evidence right now pointing to you as the mafia, I want you to defend yourself and convince me that you are not mafia. I want to make the right choice here and instead you're redirecting everything being thrown at you towards me. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
If you are town the same logic applies to you - you should have directed comments at theDragoon to try to convince him I'm mafia. I can't say your logic is wrong, I'm just saying I'm town and I didn't follow that logic, if you are town then you know you are town and didn't follow it either. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:38 theDragoon wrote: @Amiko You said you were pressuring n1k0 during night 1 and here's something that I found a bit suspicious. We know for sure that one mafia voted on Cav, when you ask him if he thinks you're town why do you think at least 2 mafia voted for someone other than Cav? We know there's only 2 mafia or else the game would be over already. This part here sounds like you're trying to pin mafia on anyone other than you two. Why do you ask n1k0 where he thinks mafia would tend to vote? Since we know he's mafia, he'll answer that question pointing to the town players. If you're mafia it makes sense to ask this question to n1k0 since it helps point town towards the wrong people. Also, I'm pressuring you more than Valenius because there's more evidence right now pointing to you as the mafia, I want you to defend yourself and convince me that you are not mafia. I want to make the right choice here and instead you're redirecting everything being thrown at you towards me. theDragoon, I responded to at least 2-3 of your points in the posts prior to yours which you said you didn't read. On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: N1k0 discouraging cop checks on Amiko despite labeling him as likely to be godfather but still calls him town http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#437 On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: Amiko's day 2 play was shady and his hesitant to vote for n1k0 could mean he was waiting to see if he can salvage the situation http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#438 On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: Amiko was trying to gather info night 1 for a more educated night kill despite Robik's warning that it might help mafia http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#430 On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote: Amiko and n1k0 both voted for Cav day 1, nobody really caught on until day 4 so it was a risk worth taking THIS LOGIC IS BAD. If n1k0 and I are mafia, we have no idea who will catch onto it or not when we vote together. It was a needless risk where little was gained and it makes me look bad whichever day it is raised. --- Valenius is going to sleep soon so we should be talking with him, as town I have to make a case that you are more mafia than I am because I know I am town. If you are town your job right now is to convince him I am mafia. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:27 Amiko wrote: If n1k0 and I were scum we had 2 votes to move. You think we would risk voting together to lynch a random town (Cavalinho) but not vote together to tie the votes and try to save a mafia? I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:35 Amiko wrote: I'm willing to point to a few things, there are responses that are easy to this, like if we linked ourselves d1, it would be too risky to vote together day 2 also. This just again stresses how terrible it would be for mafia to vote on the same person day 1. Actually, my post was going to center around how far gone I feel the vote on n1k0 was by that point. Pretty much everyone has said they felt OnceKing's was a really strong case. Following this (before you/beneather/n1k0 voted) I felt it would have taken a miraculous case to get the votes switched around enough to get n1k0 off. The only other vote so far that day is on me, and i'm the other likely lynch for that day, so you two would pretty much have to move onto me to get any traction going. The moment I flip green, both of you guys are under massive pressure due to the double vote on cav, and tehn double switch to me. That's why I don't think flipping on to me was actually a viable play. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:48 theDragoon wrote: I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him. 1) Where did you express that intent? 2) I think that explanation is something you just made up. You posted this following the vote on n1k0, why wouldn't you explain your mafia bait plan then? If you had that plan, why did you lie to town about your reasoning for voting on Valenius? On February 22 2014 08:50 theDragoon wrote: I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him. You mention you wanted to bait votes on to me, yet in your post-day explanation of that event you stated you were confident i was scum, with no mention of baits: On February 22 2014 08:50 theDragoon wrote: I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right. What gives on that? | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:48 Valenius wrote: Actually, my post was going to center around how far gone I feel the vote on n1k0 was by that point. Pretty much everyone has said they felt OnceKing's was a really strong case. Following this (before you/beneather/n1k0 voted) I felt it would have taken a miraculous case to get the votes switched around enough to get n1k0 off. The only other vote so far that day is on me, and i'm the other likely lynch for that day, so you two would pretty much have to move onto me to get any traction going. The moment I flip green, both of you guys are under massive pressure due to the double vote on cav, and tehn double switch to me. That's why I don't think flipping on to me was actually a viable play. That's exactly what I'm saying though. Two mafia voting together on day 1 is just bad mafia play (especially when there's only two mafia!). It means they cannot vote together to mislynch someone without looking scummy. If I was scumteam with n1k0 and our votes were split day 1, we'd be able to moved our vote onto you Valenius. Basically, if you think I'm mafia then you think I did a really bad play day 1 so I couldn't make a play day 2. But, you also think I did a really bad play day 1 with no meaningful gain. I mean Cavalinho even said he thought I was town (and also an asshole). | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:53 Amiko wrote: 1) Where did you express that intent? 2) I think that explanation is something you just made up. You posted this following the vote on n1k0, why wouldn't you explain your mafia bait plan then? If you had that plan, why did you lie to town about your reasoning for voting on Valenius? Read through my filter when Val asks me if I think majority on n1k0 is better than voting on him. How can I use my bait if I explain it first? Also, that situation did not happen so I didn't want to tell town about it just in case it might be useful later on. For the record I did not lie about staying on Val, I stand by that statement and it's still one of the reasons why I'm tempted to switch onto him. Right now you're looking a lot more scummy than Val so my vote's on you. If you really are town I need you to convince me that Val is mafia, we are so close to winning this and I don't want to make the mistake of voting for you. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 27 2014 07:03 theDragoon wrote: How can I use my bait if I explain it first? Also, that situation did not happen so I didn't want to tell town about it just in case it might be useful later on. For the record I did not lie about staying on Val, I stand by that statement and it's still one of the reasons why I'm tempted to switch onto him. Right now you're looking a lot more scummy than Val so my vote's on you. If you really are town I need you to convince me that Val is mafia, we are so close to winning this and I don't want to make the mistake of voting for you. However I'm not convinced right now. 1) If you had explained your bait in that post it would have affected nothing. Your post was after the lynch, so explaining it doesn't matter. 2) So if I understand this, you gave town a false/incomplete reason for your vote because revealing it later might somehow be helpful? Can you describe a situation where it would be helpful? I cannot :s 3) Ok he did reference changing his vote here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20840967 But that still makes me feel this bait thing is something he just made up. Like you yourself said, how can you use the bait if you explain it first? How is that even a bait if you told everyone you would switch your votes? -- theDragoon you asked me to spend more time convincing you that Valenius is mafia. You provided some one-line reasons for why you voted for me. In the post above, I put links to the recent posts which you said you didn't read. Inside those posts are defenses. If you are town and find my arguments are convincing and believe I am town, you should believe Valenius is mafia by process of elimination. So you have some arguments of mine to work with. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 27 2014 07:00 Amiko wrote: That's exactly what I'm saying though. Two mafia voting together on day 1 is just bad mafia play (especially when there's only two mafia!). It means they cannot vote together to mislynch someone without looking scummy. If I was scumteam with n1k0 and our votes were split day 1, we'd be able to moved our vote onto you Valenius. Basically, if you think I'm mafia then you think I did a really bad play day 1 so I couldn't make a play day 2. But, you also think I did a really bad play day 1 with no meaningful gain. I mean Cavalinho even said he thought I was town (and also an asshole). Sigh, you're making this too hard. I want to be asleep right now, tucked up in bed confident that i've got the right person, this is just leading to an anxious night ahead  Okay. Your vote was on Cav first, then followed by n1k0. IF we're going by the assumption that you are both mafia, then it's either an attempt to stick together to distance yourselves through arguing you're close.. hopefully you get what i mean. My attempts at putting that eloquently failed. Option 2, it's a mis-coordianted play where n1k0 had no idea and blindly followed you. Option 3, you aren't scum. I'm looking through dragoon's filter again, and im pulling out a few things when viwing him as if he's confirmed scum.. whether thats right idk. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
The biggest plus for you so far today, is that you are trying to look at dragoon as well. I know we've both kinda tunnelled on each other. I don't know about you, but i feel it was kinda set off by LT's pre-day post, where he focused on both of us, leading us to be on the defensive right from the start. That's the way i viewed it anyway, i was trying to defend myself (and then scum read you). Part of that's due to my previous reads, but i think it's partly because i had dragoon as town pre-d4, and LT didn't mention him as a likely scum. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
To me, these things feel unlikely enough to me that they should be discounted. Based on the information I have now, I would see n1k0 calling someone godfather (when all signs point to no godfather) as mafia misdirection. I don't know much about mafia game setups and the likelihood of certain roles appearing but from the point of view of mafia Amiko, it does look like a slip on n1k0's part. And it was really scummy how he calls you godfather then says you're town. + Show Spoiler + On February 27 2014 04:07 Amiko wrote: Valenius posted something that I thought might help explain my day 2 since it was read as scummy play. I don’t think anyone brought a strong case against my day 2, but it is generally perceived as scummy because I didn’t commit strongly to my reads. I agree with Valenius’ comment on Beneather here, and it is the main reason for my day 2 play. In my mind day 2 was picking between three people – Beneather, Valenius, n1k0. N1k0 contributed a few posts but almost all were backpacking. Valenius had an actual case brought against him and was responding. Beneather contributed two posts in two days that had any substance. I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went- When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads. When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads. We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful. We know now that Beneather was probably idle, but if he was lurking mafia I think it was realistic to think if he became a focus, he would try to throw up some kind of defense. We didn’t get any real pressure on him and we paid for it. He became a liability for town nothing to read town or scum and a potential modkill. When we lynched Beneather we had no meaningful discussion because there was nothing to meaningfully discuss. I get that you would both be more comfortable if I joined the voted on n1k0 earlier. But, Beneather's contributions were so empty that I felt we should to try to get information from someone who had somehow gotten by without posting substantively. My posts throughout the day reflect that and I think it was good play. I think at that point many of us gave up on Beneather, he didn't even bother posting on day 3 so I don't even think we could've gotten much from him day 2. | ||
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