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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On July 12 2013 01:52 FirmTofu wrote: Yes, that is exactly what I'm saying. If you are 1 shot and he is 2 shot, he is likely scum. If you are both 2 shot, we can't really tell one way or another. I don't see how that's true in the slightest. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
On July 12 2013 01:54 Xatalos wrote: Ah you can't even nuke anymore today. Why did you claim then, if you weren't going to nuke? Nevermind, I should read more before I post. Of course you weren't yet saved when you claimed. | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
On July 12 2013 01:54 FirmTofu wrote: Not sure how the roles are distributed on TL, but isn't this rather unlikely? Why would some town blues be strictly better than others? If I am wrong in this assumption, then don't bother telling me. I don't understand why you don't want to say one way or another, though. You see. Here is where this line of thought fails. We've had multiple multiples in this game. The only one we haven't so far as I've known are Doctor and hacker. Yet because there are multiple defense grids this automatically makes Oats scum. Why not making Onegu scum or Xatalos scum. I remember liking you early on I think but me no likey right now. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
On July 12 2013 01:54 FirmTofu wrote: Not sure how the roles are distributed on TL, but isn't this rather unlikely? Why would some town blues be strictly better than others? If I am wrong in this assumption, then don't bother telling me. I don't understand why you don't want to say one way or another, though. Maybe to hide that info from scum...? Maybe? | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
I was going to nuke one of the lurkers so we dont have to deal with them going into late game. Also I don't see why I wouldn't claim. Someone gave me a nuke in the middle of the day. We never knew that capability existed before that. | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17322 Posts
On July 11 2013 20:54 jampidampi wrote: So apparently there was somesort of case on me. Let's start by noting how filled it is with confirmation bias. + Show Spoiler [cause it's long] + On July 10 2013 08:47 FirmTofu wrote: FirmTofu's Suspicion Meter™ FirmTofu's patented suspicion meter is guaranteed to find scum or your money back! Just read carefully and vote accordingly and you will never be disappointed! Target: jampidampi Here we have jampidampi's first post. Let's first establish some context. jampidampi's first post is on page 21. A townie at this point should be looking for people who are actively scummy. He should be actively scumhunting. Instead, we see jampidampi trying to quickly establish town cred by accusing a player(me) who hasn't really contributed to the thread. Sure, it isn't scummy to draw attention to me, but it is scummy to believe that I am the best target to lynch. This play falls more in line with the presumption that jampidampi is scum. Scum jampidampi should be trying to "pretend" he's scumhunting by popping in and accusing lurkers while actually barely contributing at all. Suspicion: +10 Look at the underlined. FirmTofu has already presumed that I'm scum and therefore isn't thinking about it from a perspective that I could be town. jampidampi's filter continues along this same line of thought for quite some time. He continues to avoid causing waves by questioning lurkers who are unlikely to respond to his accusations. Suspicion: +20 He does redeem himself however, by saying that Meapak(confirmed town) should be saved. We have to remember that this does not exonerate jampidampi by any means. A scum jampidampi would already know Meapak is town and because Meapak is set to be nuked, he would want to let everyone know that he thinks Meapak is town to establish some town cred. It is tough to say one way or the other, so I consider this quote to be a null read. Suspicion: +0 Not though given for a possibility where I'm town. The Damning Evidence: We all know that rayn didn't launch the nuke. How could he? He was VT. jampidampi seems to know this. All of his statements indicate that he already knows that rayn didn't launch the nuke and is trying to discredit rayn. If jampidampi knew that rayn didn't launch the nuke, he must have known who DID. Therefore, jampidampi could either be the townie that launched the nuke OR he could be on the scumteam that launched the nuke. Or instead of discrediting Rayn, I could be trying to resolve situation and bring my analysis to the attention of others. Almost everyone had taken Rays claim of the nuke at face value, believing that he actually launched it. Yet again not a single thought given from the perspective where I'm town. Scenario 1: jampidampi=town If jampidampi was town and he truly believed that rayn lied about launching the nuke, why didn't he pursue rayn as a lynch target? All he did was try and discredit him! Why would I push a Rayn lunch if I had yet to reach a conclusion of his alignment? You'll notice from my posts that my read on Rayn relied heavily on his potential reasons for fakeclaiming the nuke, which he didn't give until after I had already left. FirmTofu seems to be assuming I'm scum trying to lynch Rayn and is not thinking objectively. Scenario 2: jampidampi=town This seems to be the most logical conclusion, assuming that jampidampi already knew that rayn didn't launch the nuke. Therefore, if you believe that jampidampi knew rayn didn't launch the nuke, the most logical approach would be to assume that jampidampi is scum. Suspicion: +50 Suspicion Meter Report: 80 Suggested Course of Action: Lynch Target I believe that jampidampi targeted Meapak with the nuke secretly. Once rayn claimed he had launched the nuke, scum jampidampi decided he could discredit him to get free town cred After all, he knew MZ was town and he knew rayn was lying. He knew that, eventually, rayn would cave in to his pressure and be caught lying, placing rayn in a difficult position. Then for the actual response. + Show Spoiler [cause this is long too] + On July 10 2013 08:47 FirmTofu wrote: FirmTofu's Suspicion Meter™ FirmTofu's patented suspicion meter is guaranteed to find scum or your money back! Just read carefully and vote accordingly and you will never be disappointed! Target: jampidampi Here we have jampidampi's first post. Let's first establish some context. jampidampi's first post is on page 21. A townie at this point should be looking for people who are actively scummy. He should be actively scumhunting. Instead, we see jampidampi trying to quickly establish town cred by accusing a player(me) who hasn't really contributed to the thread. Sure, it isn't scummy to draw attention to me, but it is scummy to believe that I am the best target to lynch. This play falls more in line with the presumption that jampidampi is scum. Scum jampidampi should be trying to "pretend" he's scumhunting by popping in and accusing lurkers while actually barely contributing at all. Suspicion: +10 jampidampi's filter continues along this same line of thought for quite some time. He continues to avoid causing waves by questioning lurkers who are unlikely to respond to his accusations. Suspicion: +20 If the town is full of lurkers, why would scum step up and become active? Why wouldn't they just lurk it out? Wouldn't is make more sense that there were probably many scum hiding amonst the lurkers? And wouldn't it therefore make more sense if I looked at the mentioned group of people? He does redeem himself however, by saying that Meapak(confirmed town) should be saved. We have to remember that this does not exonerate jampidampi by any means. A scum jampidampi would already know Meapak is town and because Meapak is set to be nuked, he would want to let everyone know that he thinks Meapak is town to establish some town cred. It is tough to say one way or the other, so I consider this quote to be a null read. Suspicion: +0 The Damning Evidence: We all know that rayn didn't launch the nuke. How could he? He was VT. jampidampi seems to know this. All of his statements indicate that he already knows that rayn didn't launch the nuke and is trying to discredit rayn. If jampidampi knew that rayn didn't launch the nuke, he must have known who DID. Therefore, jampidampi could either be the townie that launched the nuke OR he could be on the scumteam that launched the nuke. Scenario 1: jampidampi=town If jampidampi was town and he truly believed that rayn lied about launching the nuke, why didn't he pursue rayn as a lynch target? All he did was try and discredit him! Scenario 2: jampidampi=town This seems to be the most logical conclusion, assuming that jampidampi already knew that rayn didn't launch the nuke. Therefore, if you believe that jampidampi knew rayn didn't launch the nuke, the most logical approach would be to assume that jampidampi is scum. Suspicion: +50 Suspicion Meter Report: 80 Suggested Course of Action: Lynch Target I believe that jampidampi targeted Meapak with the nuke secretly. Once rayn claimed he had launched the nuke, scum jampidampi decided he could discredit him to get free town cred After all, he knew MZ was town and he knew rayn was lying. He knew that, eventually, rayn would cave in to his pressure and be caught lying, placing rayn in a difficult position. I don't see how my post in any way implies I knew Rayn didn't launch the nuke. You don't even rationalize why the most core part of your suspicion is true, you just state it and leave it as it is. At first I thought your point about lurkers was excellent, then I just realized it is WIFOM. Scum would go active to push agenda and take advantage of lynch all lurkers hurting town 100%...  . | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
On July 12 2013 01:57 Ace wrote: I thought you lied, ok sorry. I was going to nuke one of the lurkers so we dont have to deal with them going into late game. Also I don't see why I wouldn't claim. Someone gave me a nuke in the middle of the day. We never knew that capability existed before that. Thanks. But if you're town, now you're gonna be killed..... Since you have a day-KP. And you never got to use it. | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
On July 12 2013 02:01 Xatalos wrote: Thanks. But if you're town, now you're gonna be killed..... Since you have a day-KP. And you never got to use it. Nukes can be launched at night. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
If this is a Town player I don't know why they wouldn't claim to give me the nuke if they have a Town read on me. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On July 12 2013 01:57 geript wrote: You see. Here is where this line of thought fails. We've had multiple multiples in this game. The only one we haven't so far as I've known are Doctor and hacker. Yet because there are multiple defense grids this automatically makes Oats scum. Why not making Onegu scum or Xatalos scum. I remember liking you early on I think but me no likey right now. In regards to Onegu/Xatalos/jampidampi, Onegu has breadcrumbs that give credence to his claim. Xatalos was the first to claim and only did so after he got nuked. How could he come up with a full town pm if he was scum? You don't need to tell me how many defenses you have. I was wrong in my assumption that some blues can be stronger than others. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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geript
10024 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On July 12 2013 01:57 Ace wrote: I thought you lied, ok sorry. I was going to nuke one of the lurkers so we dont have to deal with them going into late game. Also I don't see why I wouldn't claim. Someone gave me a nuke in the middle of the day. We never knew that capability existed before that. You explicitly stated that you wanted to nuke someone before you died. If you are town, you would probably expect to die tonight. Is it not in your best interest to use your nuke before night ends? Do you plan on doing so? | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
On July 12 2013 02:08 FirmTofu wrote: You explicitly stated that you wanted to nuke someone before you died. If you are town, you would probably expect to die tonight. Is it not in your best interest to use your nuke before night ends? Do you plan on doing so? Why you so concerned with people's roles and shit? | ||
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Onegu
United States9695 Posts
@ xata I asked Will we know when a nuke lands or only when launched? Closed setup, you'll have to find out. This is what led me to belive they could be silent. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On July 12 2013 02:08 FirmTofu wrote: You explicitly stated that you wanted to nuke someone before you died. If you are town, you would probably expect to die tonight. Is it not in your best interest to use your nuke before night ends? Do you plan on doing so? I missed the deadline for nuking. I didn't know we could nuke at night. If that is true I will definitely consider doing it. Too many lurkers around. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
There is a part of my interaction with Maju that pushes me towards a town read that I would like to mention. Maju said he wanted to lynch Vayne, but I specifically forced him to consider switching his best scumread in order to test his alignment. If jampidampi is scum, as I suspect he is, scum Maju would be unwilling to switch his read no matter what. He could have just as easily nuked Vayne or one of the lurkers and no one would have cared. If jampidampi is town, then you would have to subscribe to the view that Vayne is also town in order to hold the belief that Maju is scum. Why would scum Maju recommend that Vayne should be nuked if they were on the same scumteam? Because I think at least one of Vayne and jampidampi is scum, I cannot endorse the Maju lynch. | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17322 Posts
I wanted to get the nuke into town hands, if I was scum much easier to put in scum hands. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On July 12 2013 02:08 geript wrote: Why you so concerned with people's roles and shit? What does this have to do with his role? I'm asking if he intends to use his nuke before the end of the night. | ||
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