EPTRoulette Mini Mafia - Page 90
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jaybrundage
United States3921 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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jaybrundage
United States3921 Posts
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On June 20 2013 21:32 Vivax wrote: These are vayne's reasons for lynching me: A lot of suspicious night actions? Tell me about all of them. I'm still alive? Sorry bro, but so is every other townie in the game. I don't recall being high priority target for scum in most of my games, and given how few time I have to put into this one, I'm even lesser. The hard-on for confirmation is also inconsistent, as pointed out by fuba. Speaking of hard-ons, I'd like to know from fuba why he seems so sure about me being town. That doesn't seem to be something that obvious to most of the others. Is it just for my cop check on Sent? I can't say why I think you're town except for the cop check. If I had to guess why I feel so sure, I'd say it's because I think vayne is scum, so I'm expecting you to flip town so as to "confirm" him. You being town is something I believe scum vayne has been counting on. You as scum doesn't really make sense if vayne is scum. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
too much talk has been about role etc which people can talk about objectively and take either stance on reguardless of alignment. I really don't like kita's case on vivax and up til this point vivax has only been a target for me because it's possible that he was roleblocked and that's why KP was missing, in terms of the stances he has taken they have mirrored my own or made sense to me. I don't see why a roleblock is more likely than a sucessful medic save. Kita's case feels like he is trying manipulate the thread with shaky reasoning that looks neat and convincing if you skim over it. On the other hand I have been waiting to see what vivax will do today. He had reversed his stutters read. He said he thought jay and i would be scum if prplhz wasn't but then today he was absent and only came back to support the counter wagon to him. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On June 21 2013 00:02 layabout wrote: Kita's case feels like he is trying manipulate the thread with shaky reasoning that looks neat and convincing if you skim over it. If my argument uses shaky reasoning can you please provide counter examples? Does Vivax push people to lynch rayn day one aside from a couple one liners? Is it reasonable for him to not check he player he thinks is obviously scum? Does Vivax go all out to push a prpl lynch on d4 after coming back with a green check on sent? In the last two cycles has Vivax provided scum suspects outside of night action analysis? | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On June 21 2013 00:08 kitaman27 wrote: If my argument uses shaky reasoning can you please provide counter examples? 1Does Vivax push people to lynch rayn day one aside from a couple one liners? 2Is it reasonable for him to not check he player he thinks is obviously scum? 3Does Vivax go all out to push a prpl lynch on d4 after coming back with a green check on sent? 4In the last two cycles has Vivax provided scum suspects outside of night action analysis? 1 "aside from a couple of one-liners". So your saying he did push rayne but not that hard? 2 On June 11 2013 04:46 Vivax wrote: day before vivax checks ace. And yes it is reasonableYup, except for the "cop-read". I said Sentinel was a better check than ace cause people were discussing him for lynch. My argument for him being town hadn't really been accepted, and wasn't even good cause he might just have been bussing for cred, in retrospect, and ace seemed to be safe from lynch anyway. 3 He doesnt go all out he makes a case and when it picks up no steam he switches to stutters and then finally sentinel to save himself. I agree that this looks bad, the fact that he pushed prp and stutters suggests that he wasn't convinced on either as he said he was. Switching to save himself is something that both town and mafia do however. 4 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=18918706 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=18924960 he seems to have a scumread on vayne, who he has pushed today. he also said some wishy washy crap about me being town or good scum, which might be a read. I don't know what to think about this game anymore | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On June 21 2013 01:12 layabout wrote: 1 "aside from a couple of one-liners". So your saying he did push rayne but not that hard? Correct. It wasn't clear that he wanted to lynch rayn because he had a strong scum read, rather than he didn't have much other choice. On June 21 2013 01:12 layabout wrote: 4 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=18918706 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=18924960 he seems to have a scumread on vayne, who he has pushed today. The problem is that vayne was one of his strongest town reads the past three cycles and he never explains what he think happened with the N2 actions. I'd hardly say he is pushing vayne considering he never calls him scum, nor votes for him. It was more of a defense post. | ||
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Vivax
21682 Posts
On June 20 2013 09:13 layabout wrote: Who actually believes that mafia doublestacking JJD is the most likely scenario for night 2? Vivax needs to be posting today since he has a greencheck on his only scumread alive. On June 20 2013 09:13 layabout wrote: Who actually believes that mafia doublestacking JJD is the most likely scenario for night 2? Vivax needs to be posting today since he has a greencheck on his only scumread alive. I am thinking a lot about that point. It seems like a huge sacrifice, but it's actually really effective if the idea works. You pick some guy who doesn't seem worth of double stacking, you claim to have protted someone who is town, the roleblocked guy gets in trouble. No one thinks you would double stack someone like JJD so you have an argument. You are free to keep derping around like Vayne does for several days cause people think you saved a townie, the roleblocked dude is under pressure, and just in case you flip scum, the guy you protted might get into trouble too. I am currently put in front of these scenarios: - stutters is scum if I take all actions at face value. - Jay is in truth scum and rolled GF - Scum tried to get to do some confirmed town shenannies. vayne claiming doctor. Fuba claiming save on kita and hit on himself. The idea that scum gives up on KP seems so far fetched, but just by looking at the consequences for these players that I argued myself into, I became mostly driven by night actions and only looked at the play of a few people. If scum is good, they will do things no one believes they would do as scum. One consequence is only logical though (from the actions) , I think fuba is town for his timing on the Rayn wagon (third to vote) and the post he joined it with here, I refuse to believe that this was a bus. That leads to his kita protection being genuine, that leads to kita having been protected for real in the questionable night. And with that, if I go strictly by play and my own check and the remaining guy I can't trust into for his night action, I end up at: - Vayne - jay - layabout Considering that jay gave layabout a green check, and both are now voting Vayne, we gain information. It means that Vayne is either being bussed by one of them, or jay and layabout are scum. Unlikely he's being bussed by layabout cause he's defending me. Doesn't really make sense for layabout to defend me like that if he's scum anyway, it looks like honest doubt. That leaves me with a Jay + Vayne scumteam. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ This answer makes me confident: On June 20 2013 03:16 VayneAuthority wrote: stutters for absolutely certain, dont know on the other. maybe you or jay Jay's posts actually do the opposite, but hey, do things people don't expect you to do I guess: On June 20 2013 03:57 jaybrundage wrote: Looking over him the big points i dont like. Is his self proclaimed confirmed town just from rayn calling him a town read. Here he defends it saying that Rayn calling him town when Vayne doesnt have any influence on the thread day 1 that it doesnt make sense for scum to buddy with town like that. And he some how takes this instance to call him self confirmed town. Again talking about Rayn calling him town. Its all WIFOM and he keeps coming back to it cause its his only argument that he has for him being town. His not caring who died voting prplhz even tho he doesnt have a scum read on him. Says he doesnt have a case on Vivax just wants him to die. He just wants someone to die besides him and his scum buddie. He makes it obvious he doesn't care who he lynches. I made one comment to him about why he doesnt have a case. And he just changed his vote. No conviction about his read. ##Vote Vayne Plz vayne convince me other wise. On June 20 2013 05:24 jaybrundage wrote: I have a null read on Vivax. I don't find the KP argument compelling enough to lynch him over people that have been acting like scum in there filter. If vayne flips green (unlikely i know) then I think Vivax is much more likely to be scum. Or scum would have just decided to hold KP for no reason Possible but very unlikley He's pretty obviously trying to favour Vayne over me by calling me a "null read". Only possible explanation I see given my conclusion by exclusion is that scumjay knows that any hesitating during a bus will make it too ineffective for him to stay alive at lylo. He'll rather relax on his scumbuddy after writing his case while taking null stances on other lynch options, so he can switch but doesn't have to defend me. Hence, we lynch Vayne or jay today, I'd actually start with the latter cause it's more fun to see vayne squealing: ##Vote jay pre-edit: The problem is that vayne was one of his strongest town reads the past three cycles and he never explains what he think happened with the N2 actions. I'd hardly say he is pushing vayne considering he never calls him scum, nor votes for him. It was more of a defense post. Kita, read his reasons for lynching me and comment on them, then you can come back and decide if to spam your confirmation biased arguments. Every townread I gave you see as scum motivated, my check on Sentinel was supposed to give me town cred when the other lynch option at the time was me. You clearly need to think critically about your own thoughts, take some fresh air, eat a sandwich. | ||
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VayneAuthority
United States8983 Posts
The fact is I am not scum so when you make a write-up keep that in mind. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On June 21 2013 02:20 Vivax wrote: I am currently put in front of these scenarios: - stutters is scum if I take all actions at face value. Uhh, what happened to this one? | ||
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Vivax
21682 Posts
I went to thinking he's town, and I decided to not take all actions at face value. Didn't eat that sandwich didn't you. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On June 21 2013 02:29 Vivax wrote: I went to thinking he's town, and I decided to not take all actions at face value. Didn't eat that sandwich didn't you. Will eating a sandwich make me feel better about the fact that you don't actually mention why Jay is scum? Everything is about night action analysis with you. You say that you think Jay rolled godfather, but never actually explain why. You never explain why he is a better lynch than vayne. You never explain why a vayne/Jay scum team makes sense. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Can you explain to me why you eliminated Vayne/Stutters as an option? | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
Scenario 1: We lynch Vayne, he flips scum. I can't draw any definitive information from this about Vivax. If there were no scum shenanigans, then Vivax is scum, and he was bussed pretty hard by Vayne (in the sense that vayne apparently wanted him lynched, not that vayne was really an impetus to the lynch). If scum shenanigans occurred in order to make Vayne "guaranteed town", then we know that scum couldn't control who was roleblocked because prplhz had that role. This means that Vivax could still be scum. Scenario 2: We lynch Vayne, he flips town. Pretty sure this guarantees I was wrong about both vayne and vivax and we lynch vivax the next day. I can't figure out shenanigans that scum could have pulled off to make both of them town in this situation. Scenario 3: We lynch Vivax, he flips scum. I can't draw any definitive information from this about Vayne. Sans shenanigans he could be either town or scum claiming to have doc'd WoS. With shenanigans, the roleblock was in the hands of prplhz, so scum had no control over it. If both are scum in this situation, Vayne "bussed" vivax consistently, but not really all that strongly. Scenario 4: We lynch Vivax, he flips town. This makes the most likely scumteam vayne and stutters based on cumulative night actions, which doesn't make sense given that town Vivax makes Vayne confirmed by N2 actions. This leads me to believe either shenanigans occurred and vayne is scum, or there is a lie/GF somewhere in jay/layabout. Based on these, I'm reasonably sure that at least one of the two is scum (barring jay just so happening to get GF). What would help me most is making me understand why my shenanigans are unreasonable (as people seem to believe). Based on play alone, I'd go with vayne over vivax because I see this potential for scum to manipulate night actions N2. I still think it's possible and viable given the state of the scumteam at that point in the game (down their power role since the first day). It also fits into scenarios 1 and 3, possibly explains the discrepancy in scenario 4. Scenario 2 is just me being plain wrong. Without considering shenanigans, every scenario leads to scum vivax except for the one where he inherently flips town. I'd switch my vote if I was convinced of this unlikelihood. | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
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Vivax
21682 Posts
On June 21 2013 02:56 kitaman27 wrote: (Sorry for the quadruple post) Can you explain to me why you eliminated Vayne/Stutters as an option? I can't really eliminate stutters, that's correct, I decided I'd roll with town since his explanation for the Fuba save, mainly. I found it too detailed to look like bullshit, but maybe I'm using the wrong heuristic. To review your suggestion, the evidence I found against that option is this: On June 20 2013 05:08 Stutters695 wrote: Well I was typing up a long ass post on why Vayne was scum but by the time I finish it you guys will have lynched him. Here's what I was thinking of his D1 play. Ok so big post on Vayne: There will be Day 1: He really isn't saying dick, but no surprise there. He's done it both of the other games I've played with him (1 town, 1 scum). Here is where it starts to bug me That's twice in early d1 he says he doesn't care for meta, yet his first real stance is a townread on Rayne for meta where he votes WoS for no reason except that at least it isn't his town read. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2013 15:10 VayneAuthority wrote: I dont see anything on rayn, he doesn't really have a meta from what I have seen. He plays differently from game to game and his activity is based off the time he actually has not his alignment. Neither of us are good lynches. I am leaning towards mkfuba or WoS not sure yet On June 06 2013 02:40 VayneAuthority wrote: I don't necessarily think WoS is scum as its too early to tell but if that's my only other option besides rayn, so be it. He is one of my only townreads He also defends Ace by saying that if he's town scum will shoot him, so there is no point in lynching him/getting him to contribute. Then he switches to Fuba because he's his "real read." Now that the summary is done, onto why this is scummy: First, I consider Vayne a very cognizant player. It isn't that his reads are amazing or anything as town but he's always thinking ahead. That is part of my concern with him. For the obvious scum motivations he got by d1 with not being a serious suspect at all and avoiding contributing literally anything. Although defending two scum could just be terrible luck, I would not rule out the possibility of scumteam consisting of Ace and Vayne to orchestrate that. He defends both confirmed scum on no reasoning at all. That isn't something that just happens. I'd also like to call attention to + Show Spoiler [this post] + On June 06 2013 11:14 VayneAuthority wrote: I welcome anyone that questions my alignment to cop me then if you can't vig me, so we don't waste a lynch. Vayne is too focused on how night actions affect gameplay to not realize that with the godfather possibility, you can't rely on someone calling themselves for a cop check to be reliable. Overall a pretty scummy d1 but nothing really concrete in it, Gonna abridge the rest to get it out quick. If a scum recieves the miller/GF role, are they informed that they are the GF for that night? On June 20 2013 05:37 Stutters695 wrote: Vayne, the Abridged Series Episode 2 d2/n2 He calls himself confirmed town via Rayns WIFOM, then says if Ace flips scum we need to reexamine confirmed town because clearly Ace set something up. Purely speculation, but notice that he really doesn't do anything yet again. When he does decide to post reads look at them + Show Spoiler [reads] + On June 09 2013 12:13 VayneAuthority wrote: Also I would check out stutters, something is up there. Something doesn't feel right about him looking through his filter. Look at the progression that brought him to Rayn and how he's been pretty much afk for this 2nd day. On June 09 2013 12:23 VayneAuthority wrote: They didn't necessarily have to bus him hard but they definitely voted somewhere in the middle of the pack im guessing or maybe even early (this is all assuming ace is scum) I would say the ones to me that look the most suspicious are stutters, Vivax, JJD. Leaning towards sentinel being town but really can't tell what he's doing tbh. stutters- Tosses around his vote a bit and is quite active, more than I would like from stutters but maybe he just had time on his hands. The damning part is that he kind of ends up on rayn with no real reason, just pops in the thread late and votes him. Vivax was trying to push a lynch on a weak player(me) which is something we both know scum love to do, and kind of just voted for rayn for no reason at all either. JJD is doing the same thing as last game where he kind of pre-conceives before the flip but I cant get a good read here, null leaning scum I've dropped the mkfuba thing but you thing I should re-examine it? First notice that all four of his reads show little to no scum motivation. There's an irony here that he accuses Vivax of trying to push a lynch on a weak player when that is what he was doing to me (over a weekend I may add when I have made it abundantly clear I'm not as active). His JJD read is easily the worst reason of the 3 (at least voting Rayn without justification can be scummy, but he never explains why it is something that wouldn't happen as a townie). Rinse and repeat that on me throughout the entire game. Also this post is scummy as shit. afk a while, driving home. On June 20 2013 08:21 Stutters695 wrote: I don't understand why scum would double stack JJD. I could see Vayne protecting the hit to try and boost his town cred and there is still the possibility of vivax getting role blocked. Looking at the NKs it's pretty obvious Fuba and I can't be scum together since if we were there would have been no reason to sacrifice two NKs to give Fuba minor town cred with his vet absorption when as an alternative we could have easily shot knowing that Fuba was a very unlikely RB compared to me. That doesn't clear me for that night but i know I'm telling the truth about it makes Fuba confirmed town to me because he's responsible for two saves when otherwise this is a potential lylo. Thus the question for me is are vivax/Vayne/both up to something? I think yes and Vayne is the more likely to flip scum. Point being, he writes two huge cases and proceed to give up on the push after a back and forth of questioning with Vayne where he finds his answer genuine. If it's distancing it'd be pretty well done, I'd rather go with not. What suggests to you that they could be a possible scum team? | ||
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mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
Why not vote for the scumread that is actually in consideration at the moment instead of adding in jay? | ||
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