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layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
June 20 2013 00:13 GMT
#1761
Who actually believes that mafia doublestacking JJD is the most likely scenario for night 2?

Vivax needs to be posting today since he has a greencheck on his only scumread alive.
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
June 20 2013 00:16 GMT
#1762
On June 20 2013 09:11 Stutters695 wrote:
Or justify your vote by anything other than night action speculation


I don't really need to justify anything, his play is not indicative of town and I wouldn't miss him if he was town. He honestly thinks

1. that JJD was doublestacked or some bullshit

2. just read his latest post, how does he come to the conclusion from that to lynch me? LOL?
I come in for the scraps
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
June 20 2013 00:55 GMT
#1763
If Fuba believes I'm town that means every night was a town save/vet with the exception of n2 which we still don't know since vivax hasn't flipped. If scum fucked with a night to confirm someone, you're really likely to do it and you're also the scummiest person to me. I can understand where he's coming from. I want you to show me the justification for this because I'm pretty sure he's town.
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
June 20 2013 01:02 GMT
#1764
You guys don't think in terms of timestamps, only the now. How the fuck could I have planned all that for like 4 million days later in a lynch between me/vivax to confirm me as town LMAO. it makes zero sense and if you understand where he's coming from you are probably on shrooms again.

There is NOTHING that makes it more likely that I fake doc'ed than vivax being RB'ed. absolutely nothing. The fact people are thinking in terms of the insane instead of the obvious just goes back to the sentinel lynch where people actually LYNCHED a green report because they didn't trust vivax. Somehow a few days later vivax is still standing. Do you not see the breaks in the chains here and how mafia has manipulated the game lategame?
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
June 20 2013 01:08 GMT
#1765
Also as an aside, I checked back to see who flipped off of the vivax lynch to go to a green check and it was started by prphlz who we now know is town. Jay then writes a long bs post that basically says nothing then votes for sentinel. He then later asks sentinel for a case on me. Motive for that is suspicious.. The next person to follow is mkfuba who switches from vivax to sentinel. One of them has to be scum. The game is not over if I am lynched so remember when I am town that I feel very strong about the scum being vivax and jay/mkfuba at this point. that is my final answer.
I come in for the scraps
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
June 20 2013 01:09 GMT
#1766
Fuba is more confirmed town by actions/night actions but who knows for sure. I guess I would have to say that fuba is perhaps just le dumb and jay is scum but he's so wrapped in these night actions that I can't know for sure.

either way the denominator is vivax.

##:unvote

##vote: vivax
I come in for the scraps
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
June 20 2013 01:12 GMT
#1767
So tell me, if the mafia manipulated that lynch who in your opinion did that? If I'm not mistaken I'm your only constant scumread and I was against sent before vivax. Would have preferred vivax to prp also but I wasn't here most of the day to argue against it and that one made more sense.
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
June 20 2013 01:18 GMT
#1768
On June 20 2013 09:16 VayneAuthority wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2013 09:11 Stutters695 wrote:
Or justify your vote by anything other than night action speculation


I don't really need to justify anything, his play is not indicative of town and I wouldn't miss him if he was town. He honestly thinks

1. that JJD was doublestacked or some bullshit

2. just read his latest post, how does he come to the conclusion from that to lynch me? LOL?

I came to that conclusion because the only reason I wasn't voting for you was because it didn't make sense for scum to withhold their kp. I think vivax is town. I think you are scummy. The only reason I took you off the list is because I couldn't figure out how the night actions resolved N2 without you being confirmed town. This makes perfect sense, though. It explains the missing KP, it explains why you're so obsessed with getting vivax lynched, it explains why I've found fault with so many of your posts this game. It literally explains every question I had regarding the night actions N2.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
June 20 2013 01:24 GMT
#1769
The case against Vivax:

Day One:

Vivax asks plenty of questions, but shares very few opinions. layabout directly asks Vivax about the WoS bandwagon and Vivax agrees to vote rayn without providing much of a reason. He puts no effort into pushing rayn.

Day Two:

Vivax votes Oats, without questioning Ace, but I'm fine with that. However, rather than scum hunting this cycle, he uses the opportunity to write a case defending Sent. A scum Vivax would know Oats is flipping town, Ace is getting lynched the next cycle, and there are going to be two cop checks coming up before the next lynch. Sent is almost certainly going to be one of the cop checks. He uses this opportunity to defend a player that is not going to get lynched for at least two days and will be checked in order to earn town cred. Vivax puts no effort into scum hunting this cycle.

Day Three:

Vivax votes Ace and mentions that Vayne was his scumread, but based on the N2 actions, he is town. The strange part about this? Vivax hadn't mentioned Vayne in 100+ hours. It is as if he is trying to renforce the idea that a town Vivax must think Vayne is town, so he is going to reverse a non-existant scum read. Vivax suddenly comes up with a scum read on prplhz after the roleblock, stating that it is pretty obvious that he is scum. If it is so obvious, why isn't there a case or even a mention prior to the night action which makes him guilty. He also shares suspicion of myself.

Day Four:

I shared my suspicion of Vivax the previous cycle and ended up likely getting targeted by a night hit based on fuba's claim. Night three Vivax checks the player he spent such a long time defending in Sent, rather than his top two scum reads in prpl and myself. He described prpl as "pretty obvious" scum, yet refused to use a cop check on him in a game with only two mafia players remaining. What town player uses a cop check on his town read, rather than his scum read? He argues that he was worried Sent would be mislynched. Sent is not going to get mislynched if he comes up with a red check on prpl. Furthermore, he gains town cred for his earlier defense of Sent after providing the town check. After calling prpl obvious scum the previous night, he puts rather little effort into lynching prpl. As the Sent mislynch starts to build steam, he switches to stutters. In fact, when layabout shares interest in lynching prpl, Vivax describes the prpl lynch as "not going anywhere". Vivax as a green check on Sent, he has an obvious scum read on prpl, yet he is putting very little effort into convincing the town to lynch prpl. Instead, he leaves the prpl mislynch open for the following cycle, preventing him from having to come up with an additional scum read.

Day Five:

Vivax votes prpl later on in the cycle, but puts little effort into convincing others. He comes up with a scum team based on the limits of his night actions, but doesn't do anything about it.

Day Six:

Vivax has put absolutely no effort into defending the Vayne lynch, a player which he would strong think to be town from his perspective. He comes up with a mafia suspect in stutters, but puts no effort into lynching him, with lylo only a cycle away. He is unable to come up with a second mafia suspect and doesn't even attempt to come up with a plausible scenario.

Night Two:

Several people seem to think that the most likely scenario is that JarJar was double stacked on night two. If mafia had control the of medic, where are they continuing to target a low profile player if they have an easy shot on fuba or WoS? Why not double stack fuba if they can still pull off the medic protect claim? A roleblocked Vivax is the most simple answer and those are usually the right ones.

Even if you don't take into account the blue actions, take a look at how little Vivax cares this game. Vivax is a high post count town player who has opinions about everyone, will spend time getting his preferred player lynched and is correct about his reads more often than not. Vivax this game hasn't went all out to push a single lynch, does not appear to be interested in solving the game, and chose a scummy night three cop check. He has been dodging lynch after lynch without contributing anything.

##Unvote
##Vote Vivax
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
June 20 2013 01:46 GMT
#1770
I can live with Vaynes answer. I would like to hear him explain his thought process on a few of the points against him but vivax is the only other reasonable lynch imo. Plus it fills us in on what happened n2

##vote: Vivax
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
June 20 2013 01:56 GMT
#1771
kita why did you vote for vayne earlier?
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
June 20 2013 02:01 GMT
#1772
On June 20 2013 10:56 layabout wrote:
kita why did you vote for vayne earlier?


I was hoping he would call me names
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
jaybrundage
Profile Joined December 2009
United States3921 Posts
June 20 2013 02:17 GMT
#1773
@Kita I like your case on Vivax. My only concern is what about WoS's assertion that scum would mess with blue roles do you not think that is as big of a factor.

I'm still worried that Vayne could be scum but i could just have confirmation bias. The fact that Vivax was on the chopping block so often seems pretty suspicious. THe people I have been thinking are scum have just been bad townies and that might be the case with Vayne.

So just so we are clear if Vivax turns up red then occams razor would make it seem that he just got roleblocked and couldn't pull off a shot and Vayne is in the clear. Assuming no double stacking as double stacking on JJD doesn't seem to fit.

I'm going to rethink my vote and do a reread
The more you sweat in training, the less you bleed in battle.
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
June 20 2013 02:20 GMT
#1774
@kita
Several people seem to think that the most likely scenario is that JarJar was double stacked on night two. If mafia had control the of medic, where are they continuing to target a low profile player if they have an easy shot on fuba or WoS? Why not double stack fuba if they can still pull off the medic protect claim? A roleblocked Vivax is the most simple answer and those are usually the right ones.

why is vivax being roleblocked more likely than WoS being saved?

why are you placing so much emphasis on activity when vivax said pregame that he had finals and wouldn't be posting a lot and when activity has been poor across the board?

Day Three:

Vivax votes Ace and mentions that Vayne was his scumread, but based on the N2 actions, he is town. The strange part about this? Vivax hadn't mentioned Vayne in 100+ hours. It is as if he is trying to renforce the idea that a town Vivax must think Vayne is town, so he is going to reverse a non-existant scum read. Vivax suddenly comes up with a scum read on prplhz after the roleblock, stating that it is pretty obvious that he is scum. If it is so obvious, why isn't there a case or even a mention prior to the night action which makes him guilty. He also shares suspicion of myself.
Thinking vayne was scummy at that point in the game made sense due to his day 1 play, the night actions strongly suggested that he had pulled off a save.

Day Five:

Vivax votes prpl later on in the cycle, but puts little effort into convincing others. He comes up with a scum team based on the limits of his night actions, but doesn't do anything about it.
Why would he need to put effort in as either alignment when everyone jumped on board?

Day Six:

Vivax has put absolutely no effort into defending the Vayne lynch, a player which he would strong think to be town from his perspective. He comes up with a mafia suspect in stutters, but puts no effort into lynching him, with lylo only a cycle away. He is unable to come up with a second mafia suspect and doesn't even attempt to come up with a plausible scenario.
Why have you written all of this when Vivax hasn't posted since the very start of the day? You are trying to draw a connection that doesn't exist.

I don't like the smell of your case kita.
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
June 20 2013 02:33 GMT
#1775
On June 20 2013 11:20 layabout wrote:
@kita
Show nested quote +
Several people seem to think that the most likely scenario is that JarJar was double stacked on night two. If mafia had control the of medic, where are they continuing to target a low profile player if they have an easy shot on fuba or WoS? Why not double stack fuba if they can still pull off the medic protect claim? A roleblocked Vivax is the most simple answer and those are usually the right ones.

why is vivax being roleblocked more likely than WoS being saved?


Because I have a scum read on Vivax based on the post I have provided. WoS being saved doesn't make Vivax innocent anyways. He didn't have to be the one carrying out the kp, even though I think he did.

On June 20 2013 11:20 layabout wrote:
why are you placing so much emphasis on activity when vivax said pregame that he had finals and wouldn't be posting a lot and when activity has been poor across the board?


I've placing emphasis on motives, not activity. Show me where Vivax expresses a town motivation to get his preferred scum suspect lynched. I can understand that he is busy with finals, but with zero lynches pushed on day six, am I supposed to just assume he is town because he has an excuse for not posting?

On June 20 2013 11:20 layabout wrote:
Why would he need to put effort in as either alignment when everyone jumped on board?


Town players care about solving the game. They present possible scenarios and show an interest in moving things forward. Vivax shows up at the end of the day, posts a one liner about Jay and disappears.

On June 20 2013 11:20 layabout wrote:
Why have you written all of this when Vivax hasn't posted since the very start of the day? You are trying to draw a connection that doesn't exist.


Just a few hours early, you mentioned how Vivax needs to be posting because he has a green check on his only scum read. Am I supposed to wait until a few hours before the lynch when Vivax shows up to vote for Stutters with a one line explanation?

On June 20 2013 11:20 layabout wrote:
I don't like the smell of your case kita.


Are you saying that I'm scum? Are you saying Vivax is town?
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
June 20 2013 03:42 GMT
#1776
Kita or stutters could have just went with the thread sentiment and no one would think anything of it, I have to think they are town or that vivax is also town. Time to ponder their contributions
I come in for the scraps
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
June 20 2013 08:14 GMT
#1777
Votecount

VayneAuthority (2): jaybrundage, mkfuba07, kitaman27
Vivax (3): VayneAuthority, VayneAuthority, kitaman27, Stutters
mkfuba07 (0) VayneAuthority

Not Voting (2): Vivax, layabout

Vivax is set to be lynched
~15 hours until deadline
A backwards poet writes inverse.
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
June 20 2013 08:28 GMT
#1778
I guess lynch vivax if you want. I've realized my night action explanation assumes vivax flips town. The conflict, therefore, may be with my assumption and not evidence of some foul play. But neither town nor scum vivax confirm vayne as town. Particularly town vivax, as the resolution of the N2 actions is in conflict with that of night actions as a whole.

The thing is, it certainly feels to me as though vayne's goal, since at least day 3, was lynching vivax in order to confirm himself. Not lynching scum, but for the information. Given that this is the case, why hasn't sentinel's lynch already confirmed me and kita? It's literally the exact same situation (vivax = sentinel, vayne = me, WoS = kita). Based on that, I should be as confirmed as he expects to be from a vivax lynch, but I'm not. His motivation for lynching vivax isn't even valid in his own eyes. How is this not scummy?
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22414 Posts
June 20 2013 11:51 GMT
#1779
I just lost another written message after a crash and now it tells me wrong input when I try to restore the tab, so I'll summarize it:

Vayne didn't mention any reasons for me being scum.
He didn't read my filter when he asked me for my scumreads.
He left questions unanswered during the day of the prplhz lynch.

That day, he joined the lynch with his tail between the legs after some more half-assed attempts to push my lynch, after a few counter-arguments he immediately gave in.

Now, excuse me if I don't link you to the events, but I think I pointed out well enough where to find what I'm talking about.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22414 Posts
June 20 2013 12:32 GMT
#1780
These are vayne's reasons for lynching me:

on one hand we have a player that usually puts in a lot of work that has been sort of middle of the line this entire game. A lot of suspicious night action correlations and the fact that he's still alive at this point in the game all ring alarm bells. He would also confirm me as town if he by some chance showed up town so that's an added bonus. I have no real case on him besides that but feel he is a good lynch overall.


A lot of suspicious night actions? Tell me about all of them.
I'm still alive? Sorry bro, but so is every other townie in the game. I don't recall being high priority target for scum in most of my games, and given how few time I have to put into this one, I'm even lesser.

The hard-on for confirmation is also inconsistent, as pointed out by fuba.

Speaking of hard-ons, I'd like to know from fuba why he seems so sure about me being town. That doesn't seem to be something that obvious to most of the others. Is it just for my cop check on Sent?
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