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On January 20 2013 00:36 Spaghetticus wrote:
- Mocsta would bus anyone day two. He was WIFOMing like a mad-man. He did it too much and you guys caught him because of it. His actions were calculated to cause confusion, why would he act in such a way that allows us to confirm town? He was and is a bold player, and there is not a croutons chance in hell that he didn't name/mention/act against one of his scum-buddies to create further intrigue.
- Trotske probably did not believe the lynch on Mocsta would happen (I certainly didn't). By the time it became a real possibility it was too late for him to back out without being called scummy, and he may as well rack up town cred for the lynch.
- it's not as if these were hard buses. A scum's role is not to act predictably, but to win the game. If they thought that neither target would go down (I know Mocsta left enough options open), then why shouldn't they remove themselves from the lynch is it was a reversible maneuver?
Honestly my head is getting fuzzy, and your argument is not making as much sense to me as it should. What is your fourth paragraph about? I don't see the double bus play at all, and I'm not even sure of the mislynch you refer to.
OK, here's the simple version:
Mocsta can't take credit for the lynch if Trotske is lynched and flips scum. Sn0_Man made the first case against him, and initiated the vote. I made the supporting case later on. Mocsta can't take any credit for the lynch, he made no case and just used mine as reference when he parked his vote.
What is there to gain from such a bus?
None of the bandwagon voters are realistically going to get any town cred for it. Also, at the time the votes were made, none of the bandwagon voters were under any real suspicion. So, yeah, maybe scum aren't supposed to play predictably, but there's unpredictable play and then there's just bad play. And killing one of your own, when you don't need to, and in doing so losing the opportunity to create a LyLo situation for town on day 3, that's just bad.
Now look at this play: if Trotske is town instead, what happens when we lynch him and he flips town?
1. Honest mistake guys, really. After all, the case was really convincing and Trotske had made some dubious plays, it's his own fault he got lynched, really...
2. I look bad. Mocsta wouldn't have failed to point out that I made a case and didn't back it up with a vote and then I spend all day 3 explaining why I acted this way and maybe, just maybe I get lynched and then it's GG.
At this point, it's not even that one situation is more likely than the other. But one explanation IS simpler than the other, and it also happens to contain a great endgame plan, whereas your explanation... I don't see the strategic value. I don't see the endgame. Judging by Mocsta's play there is 0 doubt in my mind that scum are being coached so I'm taking a little risk and assuming he's not coaching them into doing stupid shit that doesn't advance their gameplan, just to be unpredictable.
I buy Shz being scum more than Trotske, because I can see the sequence of plays leading to a scum win in that scenario. Yes, it's ballsy as fuck but it would qualify as good, unpredictable play.
For Trotske being scum, I don't see the sequence. Well, actually I see a possible sequence but it would require you to be scum as well.
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On January 20 2013 01:53 shz wrote:
Spaghetti, you are pulling a serious Mocsta here. But leaving your will is actually a good thing to do. No matter what you flip.
Despite playing the angry victim pretty hard, I don't like this lynch.
Why don't you like it? If it's because it seems too "easy", remember that now is the perfect situation for scum to bus.
My favorite to lynch today is zarepath. He did nothing all day except from tunneling Spaghetti. He is also AWOL the last 24hs and why shouldn't he be? Spag is going down and he doesn't need anymore attention on him.
If nothing happens for the rest of the day, my vote will stay with him.
##Vote: zarepath
Zarepath has actually been pretty active this game day. If tunneling Spag is scummy, why am I not suspicious as well? Why does Spag's will read to you as genuine? Why is Spag's will valuable to us if he is scum?
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Germany2686 Posts
Simply because I am not convinced that Spag is scum (yet?). But he is beyond getting saved anyway. But I will not just go with the wagon because its unstopable anyway. I'm more convinced on zare than I'm on Spag.
If you remove the Spag-Focus from zares posts, there is only setup talk (useless) and lists left. Which isn't that helpful honestly.
Of course Spag isn't helpful as scum, but is as town. It's not that I'm ruling anyone out, but I'm not convinced. And I would love to have some more input from him without getting all defensive,
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Germany2686 Posts
I'm probably not going to be around on lynch.
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Vote Count!
If your vote is not properly formatted it will not be counted. Everyone is required to vote.
Spaghetticus (4) - zarepath, Trotske, JacobStrangelove, Acid~
Trotske (1) - Spaghetticus
JacobStrangelove (1) - zezbet
zarepath (1) - shz
zezbet (0) - Acid~
Not Voting (0) -
Currently, Spaghetticus is set to be lynched! If you see that anyone's vote is incorrect then pm me. You have about 3 hours left to vote! Deadline is at 04:00 GMT (+00:00).
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I woke up for this? Honestly while Zarepath does appear scummy spag still didn't answer the one main question I asked him. If he could have answered that I might have changed votes but it's obvious he couldn't. So I'm going back to bed.
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looks like all zezbets are off!
anywayz.. seems like my vote is not gaining any traction. Sad
since spag is my next best choice i'm joining the bandwagon so there won't be any weird switches to Trotske or zare. those look more innocent to me.
##Vote: Spaghetticus
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Spag, I think my case on you stands on its own pretty darn well, even after your defense, and in some ways especially after your defense.
When I built a case on Spag LAST game and it turned out he was a detective, he didn't respond NEARLY as emotionally or ad hominem in his defense. This game, he's wildly emotional in his defense and hardly satisfying in his responses, and produced no real case or effort to actually find mafia. His will before being lynched last game involved a plan for town to still win even after mislynching him, and his will this game involves no plan but a series of soft reads with no analysis.
I haven't been around the last bit because I was busy all today, and when I went to bed last night Spag still hadn't responded to all my stuff on him.
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zebezt, if you believe Acid is scum, why would you vote WITH him?
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Vote Count!
If your vote is not properly formatted it will not be counted. Everyone is required to vote.
Spaghetticus (5) - zarepath, Trotske, JacobStrangelove, Acid~, zezbet
Trotske (1) - Spaghetticus
zarepath (1) - shz
JacobStrangelove (0) - zezbet
zezbet (0) - Acid~
Not Voting (0) -
Currently, Spaghetticus is set to be lynched! If you see that anyone's vote is incorrect then pm me. You have about 2 hours left to vote! Deadline is at 04:00 GMT (+00:00).
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On January 20 2013 06:54 zarepath wrote:
zebezt, if you believe Acid is scum, why would you vote WITH him?
Did I ever say Acid is scum? He seems less scummy to me than spag.
I'm voting with JSL though, which is maybe what you meant.
I don't know his reason for this vote, but most likely trying to appear less scummy.
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AHH, my mistake. I misread the vote tally -- it showed Acid voting for you, not the other way around. Sorry for that.
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Hmm, things seem to have taken a turn for the worse. Not only has veggietown descended to the darkest damnable depths of moral depravity..... Larryboy was discovered dead in a dumpster!
+ Show Spoiler [Spaghetticus was lynched] +Spagetticus, as Larryboy the Mafia Goon was lynched!
+ Show Spoiler [final vote count] +Final Vote Count!
Spaghetticus (5) - zarepath, Trotske, JacobStrangelove, Acid~, zezbet Trotske (1) - Spaghetticus zarepath (1) - shz JacobStrangelove (0) - zezbetzezbet (0) - Acid~Not Voting (0) -
Spaghetticus was lynched!
Flavor is just flavor. We are now in the Night Cycle. There are 24 hours left until the start of Day 4. Make sure to pm any night actions to ALL hosts before the night is over! Deadline is at 00:00 GMT (+00:00)
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I am SO glad I did not mistakenly tunnel Spag two games in a row. 
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On January 20 2013 09:12 zarepath wrote:I am SO glad I did not mistakenly tunnel Spag two games in a row.
So you don't feel the least bit remorseful about throwing your buddy under the bus?
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That's a pretty leading question . . .
I can understand why I'm under scrutiny; I am the only surviving person who voted with Mocsta, and my arguments D3 could be seen as a bus. But consider my perspective as a townie who voted with Mocsta on D2... of course I focused Spag, because I have valuable information that nobody else in the game has (unless I've been DTd) -- I know that I am Town, which makes Spag the obvious focus for my attention.
To me, the most obvious next people to look at are Zebezt and Jacob, as they're the only people left (other than myself) who didn't vote with Mocsta. If you're going to argue that I bused Spag, I ask that you also analyze those two as well.
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On January 20 2013 10:07 zarepath wrote:
That's a pretty leading question . . .
I can understand why I'm under scrutiny; I am the only surviving person who voted with Mocsta, and my arguments D3 could be seen as a bus. But consider my perspective as a townie who voted with Mocsta on D2... of course I focused Spag, because I have valuable information that nobody else in the game has (unless I've been DTd) -- I know that I am Town, which makes Spag the obvious focus for my attention.
To me, the most obvious next people to look at are Zebezt and Jacob, as they're the only people left (other than myself) who didn't vote with Mocsta. If you're going to argue that I bused Spag, I ask that you also analyze those two as well.
Sorry for the loaded question, but it was too tempting :p
More seriously: your play this last day makes sense whether you are town or scum. Spag flipping scum means that you are not 100% scum at least.
And yes, I'm not letting Zebezt or JSL off the hook that easily. We will have a very interesting day 4 indeed.
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EBWOP: Didn't vote *against* Mocsta.
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EPT
