Liquid City Mafia - Page 133

On October 11 2012 10:41 DarthPunk wrote:
I have misgivings on this lynch. But it is probably better play to just verify the cop claim. Like I think the optimal play is to lynch the red check. But I am not 100% on that. :/

On October 11 2012 11:44 DarthPunk wrote:


So you are not trying to mislynch me off the back of kush? Except the majority of your case is about me tunnelling kush and not thinking he is townie.

Cool story.

The rest is just shit.

On October 12 2012 09:34 DarthPunk wrote:
I believe that VE is a cop of some description. Claiming to trade one for one with Kush of all people is just silly. Especially after Scum lost Marv and Hapa consecutively. What you are suggesting is that after scum lost two members the rest of them decide that VisceraEyes known to be a good scum player should fake claim cop with a green check on kush.

I find that scenario INCREDIBLY unlikely. Sanity is certainly in question. AS is the possibility of a framer or something similar. But we should not be lynching VE right now.


I find it very interesting that Z - Boson has dropped his pressure of me. Despite what he 'foresaw' (despite thinking it was highly unlikely) in his case coming true.

I want to lynch Z - Boson. He clearly tried to entrap me with a green kush flip and his case relied upon this. Despite his vote for kush and stating kush was 75% red.

He also stopped the lynch of scum day one by throwing away his vote. Even though he says he wasnted neither to get lynched. What he was actually doing, and every thinking rational individual would know this, was lynching shady and saving scum.

His 'I thought neither was scum so voted for neither' Is silly as it was clear that his actions would cause a shady lynch. And save node.

What he actually did with his vote was: I prefer shady to be lynched rather than node.

That is Scummy. Combine it with trying to entrap me with clear foreknowledge of kush's flip Despite calling him red and voting for him.

he expressed doubt over kush;s alignment. And instead of attempting to lynch someone else like the others who doubted the claim. He used his doubt to set up a further mislynch

Z- Boson is scum and must be lynched.

On October 11 2012 10:45 DarthPunk wrote:


You didn't say oh kush is townie lets not lynch him. You said why doesn't DP think kush is townie. He is suspicious for that. All the while still voting kush and setting up a mislynch on me if kush flipped green. That is the key difference in motivation between being genuinely worried about kush's lynch. And having an ulterior motive which it was incredibly transparent you had.

On October 11 2012 10:50 DarthPunk wrote:


You were very clear in voting Kush then immediately calling me suspicious for not thinking he was town and putting in the groundwork for my lynch if Kush flipped green.

On October 02 2012 18:35 Kreb wrote:
First: Welcome Thrawn! =)

Ok, onto business. What bothers me is that by the time I went to sleep there was a minor Austin wagon starting. It didnt take off at all. Then some time later Node comes in as a target and BOOM there plenty of votes going his way. Lets take a look at the posts which started these wagons:
I guess this would be the first post about austin, and it sums up the case on him pretty well:
+ Show Spoiler +
Then theres the Node case:
+ Show Spoiler +
Doesnt it strike anyone as a bit odd how Node could gain so much momentum and not austin? I'll admit that the case on austin isnt the most extensive, but I certainly think its better than the Node case. Especially considering austin is the one initiating the Node wagon.

After that follows a bunch of people saying "yea I like this" and it gets going incredibly quickly.
Lets look at the case on Node itself: The case is built by the fact that, according to austin, Node calls Shady town for weak reasons. Yet he doesnt say anywhere in his post he calls him towny, he calls Shady "not scummy", not "towny". Also the case is largely built on the fact that Shady would be scum (I agree Node would look suspicious in that case, but now we know better at least). But if the case is built on that we should be pushing Shady, get his flip and then push Node afterwards when we know Shadys alignment.

So we have a pretty big wagon starting for what I would call an extremely weak case. The timing of the case is also a bit telling with it starting soon after the austin wagon. There would be clear scum motives to start a rivalling wagon to austin if austin is scum. Also, note how this also effectively killed the austin wagon. Only two persons I could find actually posted a reason to not jump on that wagon, VE:
+ Show Spoiler +
And Shiao:
+ Show Spoiler +
Sharrant and KJ also expresses approval on the austin-case (page 22) but it gets kinda drowned in what follows.

But still, even with three voters and another two approving of it, it doesnt get half the momentum the Node wagon does!

Ok, onto some conclusions on what I get from this.
- I dont think Node is scum. The case is weak and the wagon strange.
- I still think austin is scum and that mafia successfully managed to diverge town attention from austin to Node (while keeping Shady as a backup which they obviously were fine with).

People I think come off as scummy because of this:
- VisceraEyes
+ Show Spoiler +
Abandons austin with no good reason. He says he already has a reason ready after having read his filter, but somehow the two walls of text makes expressing those reasons unnecessary. He still hasnt yet expressed why he left austin. This seems very convenient. Ending it with a clear statement that "We're not lynching him today" also sounds weird. Even if VE is town and honestly believe austin isnt scum, why would he feel the need to add a strong statement like that? Why wouldnt he encourage further discussion on the austin-topic even though he doesnt plan to vote for him?

- Marvellosity
+ Show Spoiler +
Less scummy than VE, could just be a case of trusting VE a bit too much. Also it seems a bit unlikely scum would line up three of their players to have one post a case (austin), and then two immediately following it (VE and marv). It would be a bit too obvious. However, this post:
+ Show Spoiler +
Kinda strengthens the suspicions again. So Im not really sure where to put marv right now.

Less scummy:
Kush, Boson, imperfection, BroodKing. Since they are all joining the wagon without any real motivation. At this point the wagon is rolling and people are switching, but I will definitely keep my eye on these four.

Overall I must say its remarkable how how people switch so fast to Node because of what I would call a very weak case made by a person who is currently set up to have a wagon starting on him (austin). I'd say its very likely we have at least one scum in the austin/VE/marv trio. Two is definitely possible too. All three? Maybe not, it would be a bit too obvious I feel.
------
Annul, being the first one to notice this, comes off as town to me.

I'll look at the people mentioned more closely and see what additional info I can possibly find when I get more time. For now, this post just covers the (imo) terrible Node case.

On October 03 2012 04:41 Kreb wrote:

Well, theres is still the possibility of it being an austin-distraction.
Or just as a general distraction from, well, any mafia.
Theres also the purpose of just pushing for different townies left and right because it both creates confusion and probably makes it easier to blend in (if theres votes all over the place, everything is "ok", so mafia can pick any stance they want and seem genuine with it).

I still dont see Node as scummy at all from his posting, and the way that wagon happened makes him look on the townish side.

On October 08 2012 19:15 Kreb wrote:
I've got a what I would call pretty strong town read on BC so almost no chance I'll be supporting any case on him. And its not because of his pretty contributory posts, which I dont doubt he'd be able to do as scum too.

Why then? Because of this:
+ Show Spoiler +
Context: I presented my thought in the Node wagon and the conclusions from it. Marv entered a discussion with me to discredit me/my case and to deny any support of it. He probably did a pretty good job of it actually since I wasnt really getting much support, although it was during an inactive part of the day. In comes BC and drops the fact that Marvs reasoning was flawed. Now, why the fuck would you do that as scum? Unless its some really deep plan behind it, if you're marvs scum buddy at that time you stfu and hope Marvs arguing gets support from the masses while I get discredited.

On October 03 2012 21:33 Kreb wrote:

Agreed. VE also didnt reply to any questions I asked him afterwards, nor did he reply to me calling him out for a very weak vote-switch to Node (left it to marv to do the dirty work by agressively defending my accusations while also clogging up the thread with plenty of posts?).

He has also, should he be town, been either terribly bad or terribly unlucky in his scumhunting. Lets look at a few people he has touched on:
1)
2 confirmed town flips.
2) Then the attack on annul - confirmed town flip.
3) After dropping annul, posting this

while placing his vote on Shady. 2 confirmed town.
4) Voted Node - no flip on him yet though.
5)
Going back to annul (confirmed town) after mislynch. With very little motivation (and refused to explain himself when I questioned it).
6)
Calling for a medic on a confirmed (yea, he is) scum, calling vig shot on a confirmed town.

He is either scum or just randomly managed to call out about every single confirmed player (except Risen) the wrong alignment. VE is my top scum read atm.

On October 09 2012 08:23 Kreb wrote:
Ok, time to post something before the night kills as I promised. Here are the reason I will most likely be voting VE next day if I'm alive. Also note that a lot of these things have already been posted, but with all the different tells which have been posted throughout the thread its probably a good idea to bunch them together somewhere.

1) The Node wagon.
This post:
+ Show Spoiler +
is the most scummy thing about it.
1a) He only says he read through austins filters, but he very nicely avoids posting what he found in it. Instead he refers to "the two walls of his" as if that somehow makes everything 100% clear. He still, as of today, has not explained why he changed.
1b) His extremely weak (on unexisting) reason to switch to Node. Someone (who people seem to regard a very strong player) should not change that easily to such a weak case it was.

2) Refusing to answer to said cases and other quetions
I just know what I asked him stuff myself, like this:
+ Show Spoiler +
And he also refused to comment at all on my other accusations. To my knowledge he still hasnt said a word on the Node wagon yet.

3) The way he targetted annul
3a) His targetting D1 actually seemed to have a bit of reason behind it, but right after the Shady mislynch he says this:
+ Show Spoiler +
Once again, no explanation. Just straight up calling annul scum. It goes on for a while and the only legitimate reason I could see for his targetting of annul was the fact that annul suggested a vote switch (to ZBoson i think) very close to the deadline even though he had questioned vote switching before. While I did agree on that particular point against annul, that alone did in no way motivate the way VE attacked him. Also, it seemed like that reason only was revealed a bit after he had already started attacking annul, like he found about it later. A proper townie would have explained first and targetted after.

3b) Also he tried to paint annul as some really crafty mafia so the rest of us would be suspicious of him too, even though there wasnt as much to be suspicious of. mkfuba made a good case on that part:
+ Show Spoiler +

4) Meta reads
This isnt something I can really confirm but I'll add it since it makes sence because of how many peopel have expressed them. Talismania started off by calling his meta scummy early D1. That kinda died off (probably for a good reason), but since then a lot of people have commented on how VE as town is MUCH more active, sometimes/often (?) something of a town leader and being much more contributory than how he is this game.

5) Extremely scummy (or bad if he really is town) scumhunting
Already posted about this, here:
+ Show Spoiler +

6) His post-marv-revelation behavior
6a) After having had many people saying they were suspicious of him post Marvs revelation, how did he reply? He replied with some wierd extreme confidence. Look here:
+ Show Spoiler +
Here:
+ Show Spoiler +
And here:
+ Show Spoiler +
Im not sure why scum would really wanna do that, but its 100% not towny to do. Compare to DPs case on Keirathi for example, or the french dudes on Shiao. No matter whether you like the cases or not, both Kei and Shiao were properly there to respond to the cases like a town should. VE did something completely different. Also note how he never really commented on this afterwards either, but rather seems to be banking on it being forgotten.

To me, it seems more likely he "gave up" or "lost interest" (someone already pointed that out, I think it was Coag, and VE rejected it) due to the percieved OPness/sillyness of the Paramedic role. He probably intented some kind of agressive/confident defense initally, but then just didnt care about it enough.

6b) Also note how he went trollmode with marv for a while (towny thing to do? hell no.) Its quite clear he enjoys playing with marv, which further strengthens the belief that he lost interest/gave up when Marv got caught in such a silly way.

7) Marvs motive behind his discussion with me
Ok, this is a new point, but I saved maybe the best for last. Lets look again at the context of Marvs behaviour of my case. First, lets look at what I wrote:


Later I also kinda halfassed bunched Kush into my group of scummy people. So what do we know now:
- Node is scum (I was wrong)
- Austin was twon (I was wrong)
- Marv is scum (I was right)
Now, lets for a moment assume both VE and Kush are town. And with that assumption in mind, lets look at what Marv had to say about my case:

Later turning into:

Now, specifically note how he is targetting me. Not the part of my case directed to him, but me (and my case) as a whole. Now, why would you want to do that if I only were right about Marv being scummy!!?? Why would he react like that if I was wrong about Node, Austin, VE and Kush?!!?
Theres absolutely no reason to. The aggressiveness of his defense clearly tells me I was onto something more than just him. If he was the only thing I had right in my post, theres several other much better approaches he couldve used to abuse my mis-reads.

He could have agreed on it, admitting it was wierd (which likely would have had me going straight after VE), knowing that there was a very high chance I'd go after a town. But he didnt.

He could have defended himself alone, citing town reads on VE as reason why he followed him. He didnt.

He could have not said anything at all, hoping it would turn into a austin or VE lynch. He didnt.

Instead he decided to go and agressively discredit me and as such my whole case. And I just cant see why he would do that if the only thing I predicted right was Marvs scummyness. I think I must have hit something more to motivate this response. And while it could possible be Kush, I think VE is the most likely person. Or hell, maybe even both.


Bonus point
+ Show Spoiler +

[B]On October 03 2012 05:19 Kreb wrote:

I dont find Node towny from his posting. I dont find Node scummy from his posting. Geez. He has a whole 3 posts and I dont find anything alignment indicative in any of them. Stop saying anything else. As for not posting more when he was getting voted on, I dont see how thats anything but a very very minor read in either direction. Yea I can see it being somewhat scummy, but its overshadowed by other happening.

For the second part: What words do you want me to use? Not feeling good/feeling kinda good/feeling ok/feeling so-so/feeling good/feeling confident/feeling kinda confidect/etc. I use the wording "not feeling super convinced". Maybe I couldve phrased it better, but thats what you got. "Feeling kinda good" or "feeling better than about any other voting target" would probably have been accurate descriptions of my feelings at that time too. Thats ok with you? I dont see anything contradictory in the wording I used though. And my wording feels like quite an irrelevant discussion and I dont like to have to spend my time defending that.

Heres a recap, hopefully we can drop this discussion after this, we're not doing any scumhunting atm (the last 12h has been all about me/you/austin/VE/annul/node, theres 18ppl neither posting nor being discussed) but I hate not responding to questions since it makes it look like I ignore them:
When I went to sleep: thinking austin was the best target
When I read the thread: going wtf over the Node-wagon, concluding that the most likely reason for such a wagon to occur is a distraction. If so, from who? Gotta be austin! Meaning scum read on austin increases.
After the recent discussion: Lowered my scum read on austin somewhat, still thinking the wagon is scummy as hell, considering other reasons as to why said wagon was started.