EPTOn August 17 2012 04:25 YourHarry wrote:
OK. I have some time. How many hours until deadline?
OK. I have some time. How many hours until deadline?
4 hours from now.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXIV - Page 19
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
4 hours from now. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489¤tpage=15#300 Then also suspects Thrawn and Ochrow are working together in his next post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489¤tpage=16#303 He further explains later, saying that Thrawn used Ochrow's reason to suspect Arch. Citing someone else's case to suspect a scummy player is NOT a scum tell. It is a reasonable and resopnsible thing to do, in fact. But it is indeed suspicious that Thrawn denies this claim. Thrawn, do you standby the fact that your post was NOT affected by Ochrow's? And Shady's further suspicion depends on the fact that Thrawn and Ochrow share similar reads on some of the players. Now, how someone would think that this is an indication that those two are working together seems just unreasonable. In fact, mathematically all townies must share similar reads on some subset group of players all the time. So far, it feels like Shady is over-reaching to build some cases. BTW, has Golbat posted yet? | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
Forgot the : | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On August 17 2012 04:52 Stutters695 wrote: My current vote is going to Archrun. I am suspicious of Thrawn but reading Mkfuba and GK's posts about him I'd like to see a little more out of him before coming to a conclusion on him. ##Vote Archrun Here's why I think Archrun is our best lynch (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489&user=155910 - Full Filter for easy reference): So far he has a total of six posts in this game. I don't find that particularly suspicious but what I do find suspicious is that he looks active throughout without actually looking for scum. In his first post he says the policy from XXIII and that as a VT he promotes "any policy that helps us catch scum." Although you can't expect scumhunting this early, I wanted to point out his noncommittal attitude. Now he has two more posts for that day. The first one is agreeing with both Shady and thrawn's statements that a SK is a non-issue at this point for the town. This has already been agreed upon and he didn't contribute anything new with his post except that a team of 3 is more dangerous than a 1 man team. His only other post before disappearing for 24 hours is soft defending Thrawn from Shady. Fast forward 26 hours and we get to the point that really stood out to me and caused me to look into him more closely. First his case on Solar and Jhuyt: This appears to be his largest contribution to the thread. He has a premise and uses some facts to back it up. Most of the post is WIFOM and doesn't really contribute anything. The part I want to emphasize is the first part of his two-fold concern. "May main concern is two-fold: 1) Jhuyt claims Solar is just an emotional by his previous TL post history, which later Solar claims to be a deliberate act. Futhermore, skimming through Solar TL post history it doesn't seem that emotionally based. In fact, it is closer to his current professionalism. I believe Jhuyt defense of him is a blatant lie. 2) Solar questions why Thrawn is defending him, but not Jhuyt. Other people defend Solar has a bad townies, and to shape up his posting, while Jhuyt explained Solar behavior (falsely) as that is the type of person solar is." Now fast forward six hours to his next post: At the very start of this post he immediately refutes his previous case by saying "Alright after looking into Solar claim about a history with him and Jhuyt I can believe that Jhuyt was under the impression Solar could be emotionally." At this point from the start of the game until this post he has spent over 30 hours without contributing anything while appearing very active. Now moving forward to his case on Thrawn, the meat of it is in that Thrawn doesn't "explain what prompted him to change his opinion from scummy to bad townie." However if you read the quote regarding it in Archrun's post it is explaining exactly why. The rest of his case is just sheeping off of Solar and Z-Boson's claims against Thrawn. His very last post is a bunch of quotes that I honestly have a hard time following but again he sheeps off of another player's accusations. Tl;dr - Read the post and see why Archrun has been hiding his lack of contribution while appearing active. I would be in favor of voting for Archrun or Shady. Of course there is the obvious "they were the first two to vote on me" but I think the way the case against me was carried out was very scummy. Shady was the main driving force behind the case against me, and I have been suspicious of archrun since sometime during the first 24 hrs. And as I said, they were the first two to vote for me so I think that one and/or both of them are scum. I think shady should get the vote, because I'd rather vote for someone who seems scummy after posting a lot than someone who seems scummy but might actually be a town lurker. | ||
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
1) thrawn2112 2) YourHarry 3) Shady Sands Due to all of my previous reasoning, and the fact that none of them have given me reason to retract my suspicions. However, I am very firm on my decision to execute lynchers. Day one is filled with circumstantial evidence and is very easy to make wrong conclusions, and the probability of a miss-lynch is very high. What we DO know for CERTAIN is that lurkers are way more prejudicial to the town, because we cannot have decent reads on them. This is a game of reasoning and deduction, but for that, we need DATA, INFORMATION, which lurkers fail to provide. For this first day, since I don't think any of the suspicions so far are conclusive, I will vote for a lurker. We have Golbat , Stutters, and JHuyt who have been balls-out lurkers. I say we should lynch one of those. Now, speaking for myself, how will I choose? Let's take a brief look at their history: Golbat Has said nothing. Has two posts. He is lurker number one. He briefly accused thrawn with little evidence, threw some dirt on Shady, YourHarry and Solar. If we lynch him and he turns out townie, we will not have any new leads from that information, but will be down a useless townie. If we lynch him and he turns out scum, that will be great for us, but we will still have no leads. His accusations could just as easily be his scum buddies due to the fact that he hasn't done any sort of analysis on anybody. I would go even so far as to think that he will be mod-killed, due to not voting. If he suddenly posts now, we will have VERY strong reason to lynch him the next day, because posting some crap early on and disappearing until close to the deadline is a Strong Strong indicator of SCUM. Onward. Stutters He begins by agreeing that the discussion regarding SK is a waste of time he doesn't raise suspicion, doesn't do any investigative move, just says that and goes on to tell Solar to post better. Then he makes a longer post, telling Solar once again to stop with the trolling (which is fine, he was getting annoying), and making a small, non-compromising case against Shady. States some facts, then moves on, without taking an aggressive stance. Asks why getting filters is necessary (I had already mentioned this...). And just like that, he's gone. Basically he is on the same boat as Golbat. If we lynch him and he turns out townie, we will have lynched a semi-useless townie. If we lynch him and he turns out scum, great! But still no real info. So that leaves... JHyut Who begins with similar obvious cases against Solar, Shady, and YourHarry. Escapes having to post anything else saying "I'm sorry, but I don't think I can be of any more use until new evidence is posted.". Then goes on to FOS thrawn, not using any original evidence. Without explaining anything, says that Archrun was not scum, says that thrawn is not scum, then votes for Shady Sands, without explaining, and just like that he's gone. If we lynch him and he turns out townie, then thrawn will have some weight off his shoulders. He would have ignored accusing a greenie based on his lack of observation. Golbat will look about the same, because he was ignored alongside an innocent and we may figure something out on ArchRun as well (I still have to read more carefully his posts). If we lynch him and he turns out scum, Archrun and thrawn2112 will not look so good. He INSTANTLY dropped his suspicion of both these players, and this is resonated by my case against Thrawn, where I note a fishy situation between thrawn and either golbat,archrun and/or jhuyt. Here is a snippet so you guys don't have to go all the way back: + Show Spoiler + You made an FOS on Archrun by saying that he only had made 3 posts and had no scumhunting. However, you completely ignored Golbat, who only has 2 posts with one-dimensional scumhunting claims, being that the FIRST thing he says is that you are the scummiest player, to which you respond with: Is this something I need to defend myself on? I am not sober right now so I don't think I could type a clear response till I wake up. Going to sleep now, I hope to wake up and see some more posts. And you don't mention it again. This seems to me to be a clear, 100% dodge. You give IRL excuses and forget about it, even hinting that you don't feel the need to answer it. You ignore Golbat not once, but twice. A townie thrawn would definitely bother defending himself to a direct attack such as that, and would try to policy-lynch both Golbat and ArchRun. However, you also didn't call JHyut, who also has 2 posts and even worse in quality than both the mentioned posters. Why mention only ArchRun and not Golbat, who called you out or JHyut? Either this is incredibly sloppy play, or you have a scum partner. If we assume the latter, then I can only think of: 1) You are trying to distract people from Golbat by making other accusations, and completely ignored JHyut. 2) You are trying to bus your partner ArchRun so as to draw away suspicion from yourself in case he comes up red. And, you completely ignored JHyut and Golbat. 3) You don't want to call out three people at once for whatever reason and chose someone other than your scum partner. I find this Highly Suspicious. That being said, I think right now the general lurkyness of JHuyt + the lack of quality of his posts + this weird switch of votes + his affiliation with Golbat and the amount of information we can make out if he is lynched, I will go with ##Vote JHuyt PS: I noticed I got sniped. Dangerous timing there, Stutters. I will not bother changing my post, because I have to head out, but I think I will be able to log on near the deadline. Hope I sounded reasonable enough. Great job increasing the discussion in this eery end of D1! | ||
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
**eerie | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Still, I don't have a formal case against Shady. While his behavior sounds scummy and his theories sound like they originated from him imagination, this is not necessarily a scum tell. And to be honest, I did not have time to read all the cases carefully so I am not sure. If I had to choose between Shady and thrawn though, I will choose Shady. ##Unvote ##Vote Shady | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On August 17 2012 04:57 YourHarry wrote:Thrawn, do you standby the fact that your post was NOT affected by Ochrow's? No, my post was not affected by ochrow's. The purpose of quoting his post was to show my agreement with his read on archrun. While our statements about why we suspect archrun sound similar, they are based on different theories. (I could be wrong, I have no idea what exact process ochrun used) A good amount of time had been wasted on weak accusations and I thought lurker policy would be a better thing to focus on than whatever was being discussed. I systematically went through the filters of the lurkers and tried to see if any of them stood out. This is a basic summary of the investigation I made into the lurkers On August 17 2012 03:23 thrawn2112 wrote:The lurkers before that post were gobalt, archrun, jhyut, ochrow, and stutters. Gobalt had accused me of being scummy, and had expressed belief in solar's innocence during the troll posts Jhyut made the comment about his outside experience with solar and he softly accused yh of being scummy Ochrow said he thought solar was town and that shady had read too much into solar's posts Stutters did not think that shady was right. Stuters didnt think that solar's post was intended as a soft accusaton of stutter's post Archrun avoided making any reads at all, he was the only lurker to do this and therefore he was my most suspected lurker. I do not know if ochrow used a similar method to choose a lurker to focus on, but regardless we both arrived at the same conclusion. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
I think most important thing is how promising is it that these lurkers will become active posters. I see Arch beginning to contribute, now that there are more posts to go on. So I think Arch could be more active from now on, which will give us posts to base our reads on. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
It's plurality lynch, meaning a majority isn't needed to get someone lynched. Vote your best scum read. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 17 2012 05:34 YourHarry wrote: Whether or not it's a plurality, what is the point of casting a vote on someone who is not going to get majority of the votes? No one has the vast majority of the votes right now. You have no way of knowing your best scum read won't gain enough support before the deadline... | ||
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Ochrow
United States110 Posts
Well for starters I am going to go ahead and ##Unvote. For while I'm still suspicious of Archrun for reasons very similar to those posted above, he was very lurky at a time that I didn't feel like I had any good scum reads (yes shady that means I didn't agree with your witch hunts but that doesn't make me scum. . . ) and once he finally stopped lurking I didn't feel his post carried much weight and so I felt that it was just a filler post pointing out some random person to make him seem less suspicious, I don't feel I have enough to vote him at the moment. Now before people start saying that I am flip flopping and that is scum behavior or whatever that argument is I would just like to point out my reasoning for voting Arch because it is somewhat separate from my reasoning for suspecting him. The reason I went and changed my FoS to a Vote was because I really had no idea how much time we had left, I unfortunately have no perception of the passage of time so I thought that the game had already been going on for long enough that the end might come while I was asleep which it almost did as I only just woke up. And so I wanted to make sure I voted as required. On shady: At the moment I can't be sure if Shady is scum or just crazy aggressive townie though at the moment I am leaning slightly towards townie for the same reasoning I used earlier in the game: On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote: My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. However I do feel that his aggressiveness has progressed to a point where it is almost damaging. The case that he laid down on Thrawn and I was not much different from his original argument against Solar, it was based off of little evidence (oh they both posted at the same time and the second guy read the first ones post and had insider information because he restated stuff that Ochrow had said in a PUBLIC forum) and Shady attacked it with a witch hunt mentality. It seems that Shady is like a shark waiting to smell blood and as soon as he does he just attacks immediately, at least that is the way it seems to me. But nonetheless I still don't feel that this is necessarily scum play, just bad play, but if we don't find any really solid scum (I am not currently sold on any of the reads as I will explain below) I can see him as a potentially good lynch. On Thrawn: I really can't get a read on Thrawn. To be honest when I first read Shady's post I almost instantly began to feel that Thrawn was scum but after reading his defense I do not think that he is. But I will say that I find him a bit too sheepish. It seems to me that anytime he a read that might be right he just jumps on the bandwagon without posting much of anything different unless heavily prodded, so I feel that this is something we need to look out for because it does feel somewhat scummy. On the case against Thrawn and I: I feel like once again Shady is reading too much into things. As far as the combined case claiming that we are both scum and are working together goes it is based almost entirely off of the timing of our post and the fact that Thrawn copied what I said. However, saying that we are obviously working together makes no sense when it is based purely off of the fact that the second person, in this case Thrawn, merely rewords a public post that I made. I can understand why you would be a bit suspicious, but by your logic one scum could just go around copying and rewording the posts of every person in the game and would therefore have to be in secret contact with every single one of them. The fact of the matter is that there was no insider information that was shared all that happened was that Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post and just agree with them. As for my fair and balanced posts or however it was that Shady described them, I simply have not been able to divine that much from what most people are saying, though I will admit to being a timid poster. But at the moment I don't feel I have solid reads on pretty much anyone and so the result of that is I try not to alienate people, though I understand why Shady would be suspicious of that because his goal seems to be to piss off everybody and alienate them all. On YourHarry: As far as the stuff from early on goes I believe his explanation in that he had a mason misread and I think that was it, and as I said before while he was posting very short messages he really didn't appear to have much to say outside of those short messages, but going by his posting history it looks like as soon as he started to get actual reads he began to post them. I feel that his swingyness is suspicious and that his posts haven't been great, particularly the case against GK, but I don't really get a scum read from him. On JHuyt: At the moment he and Golbat are on the top of the Lurker List but I don't have much more than that. However, I don't feel that Archrun's case against him has any merit in light of what Solar has said about his history, and I felt the same way before anyways. On Golbat: I can't really get much of a read because he does only have two posts and even in those two posts he doesn't really do much. He has a one line accusation of thrawn and a few really short reads on people that have been pointed out as big suspects but it is so little that I can't really pull much from it but I don't think he is scum but if he only does two posts a day then I'm tempted to lynch just to narrow things down. So just to wrap it up my top choices for lynches would be Arch, Golbat, and Shady in that order. But I do not feel strongly about the Shady lynch at all, I just think that if he keeps up his witch hunt mentality it could be damaging. So primarily I feel we should lynch Arch or Golbat, Arch for my earlier reasoning and pretty much the same stuff that Stutters said and Golbat for being a lurker. | ||
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