EPTDwarf Fortress Mini Mafia - Page 19
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
| ||
|
HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
Sooo let's see what we can gather from the mislynch of Forumite. I am taking a closer look onto the votes and how they accumulated as it should give us some info. The final votecount looked like this (if I am not mistaken): prplhz(5): DYH, Marvel, Forumite, Keirathi, risk.nuke Forumite(7): Scib, slOosh, prplhz, Hiropro, Shiaopi, Mord, CL Scib was the one who began applying pressure by writing out a (imo) really good case and he stuck to it til the end, successfully convincing enough people to get his scumread lynched, I see no need to suspect him for now. Sloosh voted Forumite early and continuously tried to garner support for said lynch after having a good look at the Mord case which went parallel with it. Nothing to see here as well. prphlz: Lurks away for most of the first half of Day 1, comes in guns blazing at the moment he is under threat of getting lynched. Although I initially said I liked his response and also stated my general intent to oppose a lynch on him, now taking a look at this with some distance his timing seems quite "fitting". I am willing to give him the benefit of doubt that he was busy and just happened to have time as it turned out to be. Also his response to the votes was good. soo slightly suspicious on him for now. HiroPro: Initially he looked okay to me but then this post here: [QUOTE]On August 09 2012 21:01 HiroPro wrote: Alright, I'll vote for Forumite. I suppose prplhz could just be genuinely busy. ##Unvote ##Vote Forumite[/QUOTE] Notice that he posts it before prphlz is back in the thread responding to the votes. What makes you switch suddenly, when you were all to happy to lynch him based on meta and prphlz' few unhelpful posts at the beginning? After noticing this I also took a closer look at his filter and it is kind of empty without the post on prphlz. Also the switch from this here: + Show Spoiler + On August 09 2012 05:32 HiroPro wrote: -snip- As for Forumite, I'll wait and see. The contradiction that sciberbia and slOosh talk about (wanting to pressure Shiao but at the same time withholding reasoning because ) is certainly present but he's brought a lot more attention onto himself actively than I would expect from a scum player and definitely looks interested in town affairs. We shouldn't lynch him today. /QUOTE] Mord: I believe my stance on him is quite clear from my filter. What I really do not understand is, while he is kind of right to place some distrust on marv his vote seems like such a throwaway especially with him being absent right after. But in regards to his voteswitch he delievers explanation and he makes sense with it. Also I think his play got a tad better since I called him out. I guess wait and see has to be the course of action on him. If he does some (wholly) decent case not like the against me or parts of the one against Marv I could see him as town, but until then no. Custos: I liked his play a lot (maybe biased because he was agreeing with me), he is also taking clear stances, trying to convince people of his opinions and as a bonus also did not doublelynch when he had the possibility (that would have been suicidal as scum though if both flipped town, so it might not matter that much.) Conclusively I want to keep an eye open on prphlz and Mordanis, while I want Hiro to answer my question before I judge him. as a heads-up I won't have too much time tomorrow and might not make it back before the deadline, will try though. Crashing out now at later than 1 AM. Night! I glanced at prplhz's profile and he wasnt posting anywhere so I figured he really was busy. [QUOTE]On August 10 2012 08:43 DoYouHas wrote: I have a few questions: @Hiropro - What are your thoughts on Shiao? on marv? Who on the Forumite wagon looks most suspicious to you? on the prplhz wagon? @prplhz - What are your thoughts on Keirathi? @Mordanis - Has your stance on marv changed at all? @slOosh - With Forumite flipped townie where do you stand now? [/QUOTE] You'll have to wait for my deadline post. | ||
|
slOosh
3291 Posts
| ||
|
Mordanis
United States893 Posts
| ||
|
slOosh
3291 Posts
Which leads me to look into the prplhz lynch group based on that heuristic of being fearful of getting caught on a mislynch, where I find some independent agreement with my analysis. This will probably serve as my deadline post as I am not confident in my ability to wake up early. marvellosity: General wishy-washyness on D1 lynch I find marv to be extremely laid back / on the fence this game. He was pretty on the fence about Forumite and I thought it could have been reasonable town confusion / indecision. However as CL has pointed out, as he invites people to discuss the case he then quickly follows up with a case and vote on CL. On August 09 2012 00:16 marvellosity wrote: People should be discussing scib's case/Forumite today please. On August 09 2012 00:31 marvellosity wrote: In short, Custos Luna doesn't give a shit about town. His original quote-post of scib's was unexplained with his own opinion and served to disrupt the thread by making people talk about an irrelevant non-contradiction. He excuses himself for scumhunting. He is currently my favourite lynch target. ##Vote: Custos Luna It doesn't matter if he was truly ninja'd or not. His train of thought doesn't align - he is confused about Forumite and wants more discussion, which is totally fine, but then he follows with a case and vote on CL. On August 09 2012 00:50 marvellosity wrote: you misread: scib's case = Forumite, not scib AND forumite. i.e. I want people to be discussing Forumite (something you have avoided doing three times already on this page) but you were my current strongest read. Clear? On August 09 2012 01:43 marvellosity wrote: my case against CL does not need to be furthered. I am unsure about aspects of Forumite which is why I particularly want it discussed. Now why don't you actually do so instead of nitpicking? He calls CL his strongest read. However he doesn't push that for a lynch despite being uncertain about Forumite. Looks like he wants to be seen as involved with the case but doesn't quite take a stance, nor pushes something which is more certain to him. On August 09 2012 05:24 marvellosity wrote: I'm going to look more into the Forumite situation. Need to mull over what slOosh said to me and also see if I can make anything out of what seems to be a lot of 'meh' from people about it. On August 09 2012 08:02 marvellosity wrote: ugh this Forumite stuff is soooo dense. Ends up leaving his vote on prplhz without a final stance on Forumite we can hold him accountable to. Discrediting Mordanis while calling him town There is also the issue with the way he pressures: On August 09 2012 19:03 marvellosity wrote: Long story short, its either the worst "scum-tell" in history or a pressure vote. First off, lurking/inactivity is a really bad scum-tell. One prominent example comes to mind+ Show Spoiler + Mufaa/Skware in NMM 14, where one player was replaced because he didn't post at all in a cycle or two, and his replacement posted a total of like 4 times in 4 cycles, and 3 of them were in the first cycle he replaced into. He literally didn't post for at least 2 cycles and missed at least 2 votes, and he was town. this is so frighteningly bad I can't believe it. carry on mordanis. On August 09 2012 00:31 marvellosity wrote: In short, Custos Luna doesn't give a shit about town. His original quote-post of scib's was unexplained with his own opinion and served to disrupt the thread by making people talk about an irrelevant non-contradiction. He excuses himself for scumhunting. He is currently my favourite lynch target. ##Vote: Custos Luna This is the exact same reason that marv first votes for CL!!! Not only that, notice that he calls him bad. Again, he does it: On August 09 2012 19:34 marvellosity wrote: I'm perplexed by Mordanis's cases so far (on me or otherwise), and sorry bro, I don't know your posting well enough to understand if it's scum motivation or if they're just awful and full of contradictions. This is of course on someone who has a "town" read on. On August 10 2012 08:46 marvellosity wrote:As for Mordanis. The meta read I get off him at the moment is town because of the fact he made a case on me. The game I remember him winning as scum he basically blended into the woodwork. Taking me on doesn't seem like the kind of risk or play he'd make as scum I don't think. Notice the subtle contradiction. He is content calling Mordanis town, but is willing to openly call him bad as to discredit anything he has said / will say. This is treatment usually reserved for scum if done at all, yet this is what marv does. All in all I find marv to be scummiest out of the bunch. I'll be here for lil bit (cafe closes in ~15 minutes), and then probably try to squeeze in some posting around lunch time tomorrow. Internet problem should be fixed by the weekend though if I live that long. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
1) if I had wanted to be less wishy-washy about Foru I could easily have stuck my neck out, called him scum, and not got in trouble with it. The fact that my gut instinct on Foru was town while I believed the case was good was where the indecision came from. 2) Someone can be bad and town. What of it? 3) My case on CL was similar to my case on s0lstice in Not Themed where I backed down from it after he started contributing. There's no point in it if CL thinks it's just light pressure (this is where foru and I differ on what 'pressure' is...) Basically you're saying I've been wishy washy in a situation as scum I could easily have come down firmly, and you're saying I'm calling Mordanis bad for being bad. That's not a case, that's you not liking my play. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On August 10 2012 13:35 slOosh wrote: There is also the issue with the way he pressures: This is the exact same reason that marv first votes for CL!!! also this is a complete misrepresentation of what occurred in thread. I was calling Mordanis bad for saying that looking for players who don't care about town doesn't make sense. So of course it's the same fucking reason I voted for CL... Why did you choose to edit out the formatting from my post that made it clear that it was not I, myself, talking in the first quote there? | ||
|
Custos Luna
United States96 Posts
I can completely see a situation in which the scum team is as follows: Mordanis, prplhz, HiroPro I am making the assumption, for the sake of argument, that prplhz is scum. This is because he has the least content to go off of. However, it all plays out rather nicely. Since you've all heard my original case on Mordanis, I will start with HiroPro. Hiro's D1 posts were pretty useless. His entire filter is mostly 1 to 2 liners. He jumps on the prplhz wagon. He wants to distance himself from his scumbuddy. However, this wagon actually started to gain some momentum, and as you can see in this post about halfway through D1: On August 09 2012 14:15 Blazinghand wrote: Vote Count prplhz (5): DoYouHas, Marvellosity, HiroPro, Forumite, Keirathi Forumite (3): Sciberbia, slOosh, prplhz Mordanis (2): ShiaoPi, Custos Luna prplhz is currently set to be lynched. The deadline is in ~9.75 hours at Thursday, Aug 09 3:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00). The person with the most votes at the end of the day will be lynched. prplhz was set to be lynched. If you then look at this post by DYH: On August 09 2012 23:23 DoYouHas wrote: I believe this is the current votecount(If it is not please post an official one Blue or BH): prplhz(5): DYH, Marvel, Forumite, Keirathi, risk.nuke Forumite(5): Scib, slOosh, prplhz, Hiropro, Shiaopi Mordanis(1): CL Marvel(1): Mordanis Unless people's opinions have completely changed since the beginning of today, we are about to do exactly what none of us wanted, a day 1 double lynch. This is actually the ideal scenario because they both have their votes tied up on each other, but that is beside the point. It is not ok to risk being at 6-3 at the start of day 2 based on just the limited information of today. That is why you need to switch Mord, we ARE in a double lynch scenario, and it actually has potential of going through. You'll notice that HiroPro is the ONLY one who switched from prplhz to Forumite. You'll notice that both of his votes were 3rd/4th in chronological order, which is a classic scum position (one that has gotten me caught as scum in the past). It is late enough so he doesn't get blame for starting the votes, but also not so late that he gets the credit for getting the lynch to pass. His voting position shows the dilemma he was in. His scumbuddy was set to be lynched, so he needed to get momentum onto the other popular candidate, Forumite. Now, for Mordanis. My case still stands, and I am now going to expand upon it. He was screwed over by his own lack of commitment D1. He did his best to distance himself from everything. However, at EOD1, he was forced to make a decision on the lynch. I was NOT going to let a double lynch go through, and I made that very clear. He could bus prplhz to look more townie, but since he was forced to make the decision, it was not truly his own, and he would still be scummy in my eyes. It would also leave his team with 2 members after D1, a situation no scum team wants to be in. For his own safety, and the greatest benefit for his team, Mordanis was forced to vote Forumite. He ended up placing his vote because if there was a double lynch, it would have left his team at a disadvantage anyway. Now, this argument isn't as strong if prplhz isn't scum. But I am fairly comfortable with a prplhz lynch D2 at this point. I may have overlooked things, but these are my thoughts, and I'm very open to discussion and flexibility should I live through the night. May the moon protect me. (This is my last post before deadline, hopefully I won't be back too long afterwards.) | ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
| ||
|
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/CUPrO.jpg) So here are the people I'm most interested in today (in no particular order): risk.nuke 1)Did nothing on day 1 except talk about policy and setup until his vote on prplhz. 2)He didn't have a single mention of any scumhunting in his filter besides 2 one-liners about prplhz: calling him out for lurking, and voting him. 3)Made no mention whatsoever of the Forumite or Mordanis cases, but after the night flip he says "Forumite. Don't beat yourself up because some scrubs can't tell cowboy play from scum play. Sit your pretty self down and watch me catch the gobbo bastards.". Why weren't you there defending him pre-flip if you were so sure he was a "cowbow"? 4) Just being off the Forumite vote makes me more weary of him. prplhz Nothing really new to add here. I still think he has a good chance of flipping scum. Lurking/uninterested, his one "contribution" was hopping on his counterwagon. Promise of more contributions, so lets see what happens today. HiroPro The timing and reasoning for his switch onto Forumite is suspicious. + Show Spoiler + On August 09 2012 05:32 HiroPro wrote: Let's kill prplhz. As town he may act overwhelmed at times but he certainly doesn't display the attitude or lack of interest that he does here. This is much more like his scum games (Normal Mini II and Movie Star) where he acts annoyed and angry for no reason and does nothing. As for Forumite, I'll wait and see. The contradiction that sciberbia and slOosh talk about (wanting to pressure Shiao but at the same time withholding reasoning because ) is certainly present but he's brought a lot more attention onto himself actively than I would expect from a scum player and definitely looks interested in town affairs. We shouldn't lynch him today. ##Vote prplhz Extremely strong stance: Lynch prplhz, don't lynch Forumite. But then: + Show Spoiler + into On August 09 2012 21:01 HiroPro wrote: Alright, I'll vote for Forumite. I suppose prplhz could just be genuinely busy. ##Unvote ##Vote Forumite You seemed really confident in your initial read, so I find it hard to believe that this weak reasoning was enough for you to do a complete 180 on yourself. The fact that is was just 5 minutes before prplhz came into the thread to defend himself is icing on the cake. Also, I'm still extremely wary of marv. He made a case on CL then didn't want to talk about it anymore because "it didn't need to be furthered". What, were you just expecting people to hop on at some point for no more reasoning/discussion? Was it just a pressure vote? I really did't understand your reasoning, and got called out for "being on drugs" when I tried to get you to explain. Secondly, the style of his questioning is just weird compared to other games of his when he is town. Take a look at his filter in I Can't Believe It's Not Themed ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147&user=140487 for reference) and compare his poking and prodding to here. Its hard to put into words what exactly I find different, but his questioning this game feels...open ended? Like he doesn't have a clear goal in mind when he asks them. Nor did he seem very invested into who was actually lynched. Also he just feels less "bulldog"-y this game, but I'm not sure how much of that is because he's been busy. | ||
|
HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
I don't have the time to go through filters again but I'll summarize my thoughts. sciberbia is town. His case on Forumite had a lot of effort and he's been consistently townie throughout this game. Mordanis is probably town. His early case on ShiaoPi was not good at all and his posting style annoys me but I feel that he's legitametly sharing his thoughts and honestly I have a hard time believing that any scum team would let Mordanis post that ShiaoPi case. Luna is scum. No experienced player would make a post like the one he just did as town. He makes a big assumption in calling prplhz scum and then uses that to justify everything else. This is especially strange since all of yesterday he was saying prplhz's alignment is unclear. Shiao and Keirathi should be looked at very closely. Shiao pushed Mordanis for reasons that had nothing to do with him being scum and he seems very nervous and reluctant to call people scum (look at his night post on the Forumite voters). Keirathi is not sharing his ideas really at all. Marv is not playing the way that I'm used to seeing him as town, dunno about him. | ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
Day 2 ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/q8fYO.png) Goblins aren't the only creatures that thirst for the blood of dwarves. The obvious threats aside, some creatures with benign names or descriptions can be alarmingly deadly. A sudden wildlife attack can cripple or destroy an unprepared fortress. I know personally of many a fortress overrun with Elephants, Eagles and other horrifying creatures. You probably do too. It is for this reason that the Dwarven Rangers exist. These Dwarves, ever brave, ever watchful, journey far beyond the comfortable depths of the mountain homes, braving the elements of the above-ground world. They do so not just to travel to new fortresses or to take part in great wars, but as part of their daily lives. Working as hunters and scouts, they are integral parts of any Fortress. In the choice between what's right and what's easy, they choose what is right. Living above grounds, in the harsh cold and bitterly bright sunlight, they go daily where few Dwarves go ever. They are the first line of defense against the darkness, and with their crossbows they fight off many an ambush, unheralded heroes of any settlement. Oh, sure, the Militia Captain wrestled a dragon to death, or perhaps a legendary miner sunk his pick into the dark heart of a Demon from below... but who stops the baby snatchers and thieves? Who stops the rampaging lions and vultures? The few, the proud, the Rangers. And it's not unusual for them to turn up dead and maimed in the wilderness, either. Still, it's unsettling, and the wounds aren't claw marks but stab wounds. No, Marvellosity roamed too far, and he faced the Goblins alone. His death is a tragedy we must all share. He will be buried in a tomb fit for a Hero of the Mountainhomes, since he gave his life in the line of duty. He died fighting Goblins, just like a Dwarf, just like any Dwarf would be proud to. A good death. Marvellosity the Dwarven Ranger was found dead! The deadline is in ~48 hours at Sunday, Aug 12 3:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00). The person with the most votes at the end of the day will be lynched. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
 gg. | ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
| ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
| ||
|
sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Looking back at marv's filter, I think there's a good possibility he was an intentional watcher-snipe. Keep in mind that scum knew this was a watcher setup, and then look at these quotes from marv: On August 08 2012 00:50 marvellosity wrote: Relatedly, and it should go without saying but sometimes I see people not adhere to this, everyone must let town know when they've been roleblocked. On August 08 2012 06:28 marvellosity wrote: that's fucking ridiculous. so you have one setup - cop, which is already by far the most powerful then you neuter the other two setups completely by denying watcher/tracker of like 90% of their power. wtf is that about. On August 08 2012 08:47 marvellosity wrote: I think postulating about a setup we only have 1/3 of the time with various unknown lynches/nightkills in the way is quite an unproductive use of thread space. Even in your post you say "for things without Hiro realises" without expanding upon them. Looks like crap designed to spam up the thread. Also, apparently everybody noticed a difference in marv's scumhunting from what we were expecting. He seemed much more restrained in calling out scum than he did in my last game with him where he was VT. In conclusion, I think there is a reasonably good chance marv was killed because scum thought he was the watcher. Anyway, I didn't get to as much filter reading last night as I would have liked, and I really don't know who I'd most like to lynch today. I agree that HiroPro's vote switch was suspicious, but it probably means nothing is prplhz is town, and possibly means everything if prplhz is scum, so I'm not sure what to make of the situation, as I am pretty null on prplhz right now. I'll reread more this evening when I get home from work, and can hopefully find someone I feel really good about lynching today. | ||
|
sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
| ||
|
slOosh
3291 Posts
I'll be rereading in light of the flip and also the 3 deadline posts from CL, Keirathi and HiroPro, and hopefully have some thoughts ready by early today. | ||
|
Custos Luna
United States96 Posts
On August 11 2012 01:01 sciberbia wrote: In conclusion, I think there is a reasonably good chance marv was killed because scum thought he was the watcher. This is possible. However, I believe that the scum team is trying to incriminate me. They want to set me up for a lynch. They are using the fact that marvel placed a vote on me and they want town to think that marvel was killed because of it. If you notice in Hiro's last post (before day post), he posts claiming I'm scum: On August 11 2012 00:04 HiroPro wrote: I have a RL issue to take care of, so this will be my last post. I don't have the time to go through filters again but I'll summarize my thoughts. sciberbia is town. His case on Forumite had a lot of effort and he's been consistently townie throughout this game. Mordanis is probably town. His early case on ShiaoPi was not good at all and his posting style annoys me but I feel that he's legitametly sharing his thoughts and honestly I have a hard time believing that any scum team would let Mordanis post that ShiaoPi case. Luna is scum. No experienced player would make a post like the one he just did as town. He makes a big assumption in calling prplhz scum and then uses that to justify everything else. This is especially strange since all of yesterday he was saying prplhz's alignment is unclear. Shiao and Keirathi should be looked at very closely. Shiao pushed Mordanis for reasons that had nothing to do with him being scum and he seems very nervous and reluctant to call people scum (look at his night post on the Forumite voters). Keirathi is not sharing his ideas really at all. Marv is not playing the way that I'm used to seeing him as town, dunno about him. He and his scumbuddies have created a situation in which they can try to get me killed. | ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
| ||
| ||
