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United Kingdom36156 Posts
On May 15 2012 01:58 sandroba wrote:
@decon I asked this already and they are informed. I fail to see how dropping godfather is good. Means that if gf is ever killed we get a bonus mafia for free.
@toad tell me how assigning cpr will help to keep it off mafia hands. GF is strong because it's imunity to checks + 1 free kill. But it's way stronger as mafia so that's why it's in the denial plan. Unlike cpr which is strong as both alignments.
Surely the point is you want to keep roles that are strong for mafia away from mafia, and the fact it is strong for town is irrelevant?
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I want to keep roles that are only strong for mafia away from them yes. Mafia picking cpr is high risk cuz town will want to do it too so it's +e.v. not to assign it. Also assigning those roles means that if mafia gets the spot and ever uses it they claim scum.
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On May 15 2012 01:58 sandroba wrote:
@decon I asked this already and they are informed. I fail to see how dropping godfather is good. Means that if gf is ever killed we get a bonus mafia for free.
@toad tell me how assigning cpr will help to keep it off mafia hands. GF is strong because it's imunity to checks + 1 free kill. But it's way stronger as mafia so that's why it's in the denial plan. Unlike cpr which is strong as both alignments.
It's not, but it's at least giving us a change that a townie ends up with it instead of a mafia. Do you really think someone who's not called Sandroba, deconduo or Qatol would end up picking CPR as town themselves unless told so? I think everyone but those 3 might end up thinking something like "well I'm not that good, better leave it to someone who's really good" which will almost certainly give the role to mafia.
Yes it is possible that the #1 draft is mafia but I am fairly certain that mafia will send the guy who has the highest seed to pick CPR no matter of who the guy is, just to grab that role because if they manage to get that role it's going to get ugly.
Therefore I think we have to deny that role and hope the #1 draft is a townie.
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United States22154 Posts
Erandorr replaces ArticFox, my bad (rnged the spot again, didn't update the OP to reflect that he had /outed)
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I agree with the denial plan.
@mattchew the problem with assigning all the roles is that there are roles that we dont want mafia to know who has it AKA doctor/cop/ext.
I think a well thought out listing of teired roles sould be used after the denial roles. That way, there should be less overlap of town roles picked, and Mafia does not know who has what.
something like picks 1-4 = denial roles
5-10 = tier 1 roles
11-15 = tier 2 roles
16-20 = tier 3 roles
whats everyones thoughts on that?
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I would totally pick cpr. Give me kp and I'll give you dead scum. Trust me it's more effective to leave it up for grabs. Mafia can't pick it safely, they might end up vanilla.
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On May 15 2012 02:08 sandroba wrote:
I would totally pick cpr. Give me kp and I'll give you dead scum. Trust me it's more effective to leave it up for grabs. Mafia can't pick it safely, they might end up vanilla.
Yes I know you would. But if you are something like the #7 seed or even less mafia is going to have it. I doubt they are going to care about one goon. The CPR is like you said high risk but the advantages are even higher. +1 Kill in a mini is just ugly.
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On May 15 2012 02:08 hiro protagonist wrote:
I agree with the denial plan.
@mattchew the problem with assigning all the roles is that there are roles that we dont want mafia to know who has it AKA doctor/cop/ext.
I think a well thought out listing of teired roles sould be used after the denial roles. That way, there should be less overlap of town roles picked, and Mafia does not know who has what.
something like picks 1-4 = denial roles
5-10 = tier 1 roles
11-15 = tier 2 roles
16-20 = tier 3 roles
whats everyones thoughts on that?
I don't like it. It's just making it easier for the mafia to get powerroles they want. Remember they only got 4 picks.
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On May 15 2012 02:08 hiro protagonist wrote:
I agree with the denial plan.
@mattchew the problem with assigning all the roles is that there are roles that we dont want mafia to know who has it AKA doctor/cop/ext.
I think a well thought out listing of teired roles sould be used after the denial roles. That way, there should be less overlap of town roles picked, and Mafia does not know who has what.
something like picks 1-4 = denial roles
5-10 = tier 1 roles
11-15 = tier 2 roles
16-20 = tier 3 roles
whats everyones thoughts on that?
mmm I think it's dangerous to have things be too organized after the top few spots. Both town and mafia (assuming everyone is competent) should have a good idea of what to pick based on where they are in the draft. I think it's stronger to increase the chances for overlapping picks and vanillas, because while a VT is worth less than a blue townie, a vanilla scum is worth far less than a blue scum (purple scum?) since scum can coordinate.
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On May 15 2012 02:11 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2012 02:08 hiro protagonist wrote:
I agree with the denial plan.
@mattchew the problem with assigning all the roles is that there are roles that we dont want mafia to know who has it AKA doctor/cop/ext.
I think a well thought out listing of teired roles sould be used after the denial roles. That way, there should be less overlap of town roles picked, and Mafia does not know who has what.
something like picks 1-4 = denial roles
5-10 = tier 1 roles
11-15 = tier 2 roles
16-20 = tier 3 roles
whats everyones thoughts on that? I don't like it. It's just making it easier for the mafia to get powerroles they want. Remember they only got 4 picks.
The point of a tiered system is to maximize the amount of roles town gets. Without some kind of picking plan, we could end up with alot of Vanilla townies. also, we are still denying OP mafia roles.
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@toad sorry i misread your post. You think mafia is more likely to get it if we don't assign it. Maybe you are right. But they also have to risk becoming vanilla unless they get number 5 spot. Number 5 can always pick cpr anyway if he is town. So it's really comes down to probability of mafia getting an specific spot, which is always the same.
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If you want to opose the plan be specific and give me numbers and real concrete examples. General stuff like "it's dangerous" or "mafia will get the roles they want" don't really help. Taking out those roles do the exact oposite, since it leaves roles that both mafia and town want, so if mafia wants powerful roles they will have to risk getting vanilla.
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I was bored pre-game and made a post about why you should pick 1 (or maybe 2) as your second number. So in case you didn't already figure that out on your own:
+ Show Spoiler +Why you should pick 1 (or maybe 2) as your second number: You want to have the lowest most unique first number. If you’re in a group of one, then it doesn’t matter what your second number is. But you don’t know that going in. So there are a number of possibilities. You could end up in a group of two (fine), a group of three (ok), or a group of four (not so good). I won’t discuss group of four because while it can and will happen, by that point you’re going to be in the back half of the pack no matter what your second number is and will be picking from the less important roles. These are the possibilities you face (your pick in blue: Group of one: [n,w]Group of two: [n,w] , [n,x] Group of three: [n,w] , [n,x] , [n,y] So what do you pick? Let’s start with group of two possibilities where you pick 1. In bold is the total number of each case possible. + Show Spoiler +[n,1] , [n,1] (1)
[n,1] , [n,1] (1)
[n,1] , [n,x where x > 1] (19)
Total possibilities: 21 First – 20/21 Second – 1/21 What if you pick 2 in a group of two? This is obviously bad: + Show Spoiler +[n,1] , [n,2] (1)
[n,2] , [n,2] (1)
[n,2] , [n,2] (1)
[n,2] , [n,x where x > 2] (18)
Total possibilities: 21 First – 19/21 Second – 2/21 Ok group of three where you pick 1: + Show Spoiler +[n,1] , [n,1], [n,1] (2)
[n,1], [n,1], [n,1] (2)
[n,1] , [n,1] , [n,1] (2)
[n,x where x > 1] , [n,1], [n,1] (19)
[n,x where x > 1] , [n,1] , [n,1] (19)
[n,1] , [n,x where x > 1] , [n,x where x > 1] (19)
[n,2] , [n,x where x >1] , [n,y where y > x] (153)
Total possibilities: 216 First – 174/216 Second – 21/216 Third – 21/216 Group of three where you pick 2: + Show Spoiler +[n,x where x is not 2] , [n,2], [n,2] (19)
[n,x where x is not 2] , [n,2] , [n,2] (19)
[n,2] , [n,x where x is not 2] , [n,x where x is not 2] (19)
[n,2] , [n,x where x > 2] , [n,y where y > x] (136)
[n,1] , [n,2] , [n,x where x > 2] (17)
[n,2] , [n,2] , [n,2] (2)
[n,2] , [n,2] , [n,2] (2)
[n,2, [n,2] , [n,2] (2)
Total possibilities: 216 First – 157/216 Second – 38/216 Third – 21/216 Total of both group of 2 and group of 3: Picking 1: First - 194/237 Second – 22/237 Third – 21/237 Picking 2: First – 176/237 Second – 40/237 Third – 21/237 So what? You might ask why show all possible combinations. What if you’re playing against people picking only 1 or 2 as their second number? Ok, let’s assume you pick 1 against them. Here’s your possible outcomes for groups of one to three: + Show Spoiler +
Only the second digit is shown for clarity. Commas delimit between separate players’ second number picks. Your pick is in bold:
Group of one:
[1]
Group of two:
[1,1]
[1,1]
[1,2]
Group of three:
[1,1,1]
[1,1,1]
[1,1,1]
[1,1,1]
[1,1,1]
[1,1,1]
[1,2,2]
[1,2,2]
[2,1,1]
[2,1,1]
Basically, you get first 7 times, second 4 times, and third 3 times. Now what if you pick 2? Same thing: + Show Spoiler +Group of one:
[2]
Group of two:
[2,2]
[2,2]
[1,2]
Group of three:
[1,2,2]
[1,2,2
[2,1,1]
[2,1,1]
[2,2,2]
[2,2,2]
[2,2,2]
[2,2,2]
[2,2,2]
[2,2,2] You get first in your group 6 times, second 5 times, and third 3 times. Note that in this analysis, this compares across three group sizes. If you think only about a group of two, picking 1 gets first place 2/3 times, while picking 2 gets first only 1/3 times. In other words, picking 2 only has a real chance of doing you any good if you’re pretty sure that you’ll be in a group of three. Caveat: In the end, it should be clear to everyone that most of what’s posted above doesn’t matter too much for the overall draft order. The uniqueness of the first number is what matters there – the lowest unique number picks first. But if you assume that people will attempt to maximize uniqueness for this reason and avoid picking numbers that they think might put them in groups of three, then it basically only makes sense to pick 1 as your second number. The only real scenario for picking 2 as a second number is if you’re interested in dealing with the inevitability of someone picking [1,1], since you might assume that 1s might end up in a group of three. Someone will pick [1,1], and it almost forces at least one, possibly two people to pick [1,1] as you can’t know if that person is town or scum (both sides have incentive to get first pick, perhaps slightly more so for town).
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On May 15 2012 02:17 hiro protagonist wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2012 02:11 risk.nuke wrote:On May 15 2012 02:08 hiro protagonist wrote:
I agree with the denial plan.
@mattchew the problem with assigning all the roles is that there are roles that we dont want mafia to know who has it AKA doctor/cop/ext.
I think a well thought out listing of teired roles sould be used after the denial roles. That way, there should be less overlap of town roles picked, and Mafia does not know who has what.
something like picks 1-4 = denial roles
5-10 = tier 1 roles
11-15 = tier 2 roles
16-20 = tier 3 roles
whats everyones thoughts on that? I don't like it. It's just making it easier for the mafia to get powerroles they want. Remember they only got 4 picks. The point of a tiered system is to maximize the amount of roles town gets. Without some kind of picking plan, we could end up with alot of Vanilla townies. also, we are still denying OP mafia roles.
No. It will just allow scum to pick freely in lower tires and aside from assisting the scum locate which blues are where multiple people in the in the same tier will likely accidently go for the same role and end up vanilla anyway .
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First things first: do NOT post your number selections. If you have posted them, consider changing it. I'm making another post to explain why.
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On May 15 2012 02:19 sandroba wrote:
@toad sorry i misread your post. You think mafia is more likely to get it if we don't assign it. Maybe you are right. But they also have to risk becoming vanilla unless they get number 5 spot. Number 5 can always pick cpr anyway if he is town. So it's really comes down to probability of mafia getting an specific spot, which is always the same.
I think the CPR is way more dangerous than the GF. Yes I agree the GF is strong but it's nowhere near as strong as a CPR in the hands of a SK or mafia.
If we tell people that #1 picks CPR that's 15/20 (75%) chance that it's going to be a townie.
If we tell people that #5 picks CPR that's a 19,36 % Chance that a townie ends up with the CPR role if my windows-calculator is correct (15/20 * 14/19 * 13/18 * 12/17 * 11/16) which means we're screwed.
In short do no like
The reason I do not like it is because of what I posted pregame:
+ Show Spoiler [click me!] +On May 09 2012 05:31 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2012 04:44 talismania wrote:On May 09 2012 01:52 Toadesstern wrote:Toads little guide for choosing your role as #1 draft I'm going to make it a 3-way guide. a) What to pick as mafia b) What to pick as a vet town c) What to pick as a newbie-town who isn't sure if he really should play the strongest role in the game: a) You are mafia? Awesome, pick CPR. Free 1 KP per night, that's right, you just doubled your entire teams KP! Also you're not someone who's carrying a gun making you immune vs that gun-bob. b) You are a vet-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. Someone like Sandro / Qatol / foolish (you get the idea, right?) would destroy mafia as CPR. Also Mafia can't possibly have that role. c) You are a noob-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. You probably should never use your role though, you're a noob but mafia not having it is better than any other role in the game. Edit: I edited this post at least 10 times. If you're mafia and pick CPR as pick 1, then you will draw a lot of fire if you're still alive and the kp has been 2+ for three nights in a row or something like that. Also dangerous because #1 pick is likely to be checked by some role or the other. Probably still worth it, but not without its drawbacks. Just a little example for your: Mafia team: 3 (CPR + vig + RB/framer/GF/janitor) + 1 traitor = 4 => Town team = 11 people. So it's 11 vs 4 let's say town mislynches d1, which is not unlikely at all => 10vs 4 => nightphase with 3 KP => 7vs 4 and it's lylo after a single cycle. Who cares about what happens 3 cycles after the game started when you win in 2 cycles if you manage to not shoot into protection / vets / hider. Edit: And I'm not saying that because I think it's imba, it's more about that people should think about the set-up because mafia will most likely have an awesome plan if they're in irc or in a Mafia QT argueing about what's the best thing to do given the drafts. Mafia is probably not going to srew up the picks imo, but I could see townies screwing up the picks. That's why I am talking about those things because I think we need to be on an equal stage to start the game or it's instant gg :p There's some roles that are really nasty for both town and mafia and I think CPR is something mafia should never lay there hands on if town wants a chance. GF is pretty awesome as well given the changes and so is a pardoner if you use it the right way. Edit2: Oh and that's talking about a 3 vs 12 set-up. I don't actually know if it's going to be something like that. Usually a mini is 12 players and 3v9 or something like that, so maybe it's even a 4v11 setup, who knows :p
Yes it gets a little better because the game got a little big better, so mafia KP was kind of nerfed because it did not increase while the townie number did. However we now got a SK with one KP as well. Yeah that guy might end up hitting mafia as well but I'd rather not count on that to be true and win myself.
So in short: I don't think the situation got better and it's still as dangerous as it was pregame.
I'd like to make it either:
#1 Pick CPR
#2 Pick CPR
or
#1 Pick CPR
#2 Pick RB and let him RB the CPR.
Personally I agree that the GF is a lot stronger than the usual GF but I don't think it could end up gamebreaking like the CPR will if it gets into SK / mafia hands. Same about janitor / RB / framer) so I do not think we need to deny those.
If someone is not sure what to pick, go ahead and pick one of those. A one-time vengeful GF is not going to hurt town THAT much even if noone denies it that we need it gone no matter what.
I think a nice townie blue role is about as good as someone picking GF / Janitor to deny mafia taht role because those are 1 hit only and RB / Framer are still really good for mafia but nothing like the other roles that were mentioned.
So if someone is not sure if he really should pick a strong blue role pick one of those.
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On May 15 2012 02:26 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2012 02:17 hiro protagonist wrote:On May 15 2012 02:11 risk.nuke wrote:On May 15 2012 02:08 hiro protagonist wrote:
I agree with the denial plan.
@mattchew the problem with assigning all the roles is that there are roles that we dont want mafia to know who has it AKA doctor/cop/ext.
I think a well thought out listing of teired roles sould be used after the denial roles. That way, there should be less overlap of town roles picked, and Mafia does not know who has what.
something like picks 1-4 = denial roles
5-10 = tier 1 roles
11-15 = tier 2 roles
16-20 = tier 3 roles
whats everyones thoughts on that? I don't like it. It's just making it easier for the mafia to get powerroles they want. Remember they only got 4 picks. The point of a tiered system is to maximize the amount of roles town gets. Without some kind of picking plan, we could end up with alot of Vanilla townies. also, we are still denying OP mafia roles. No. It will just allow scum to pick freely in lower tires and aside from assisting the scum locate which blues are where multiple people in the in the same tier will likely accidently go for the same role and end up vanilla anyway .
hmm, ok, I see your point.
I still think its a good idea to list the roles in order of importance, but I will dewell on a better idea to impliment it...
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Denying roles worked best in the last game I played, PYP:Interesting I think it was. I picked a recruiter GF at the number 3 pick spot in that game, but looking back I should have picked a CPR doc since it went to a mafia low down in the picking instead. That said I'm completely behind Sandrobas list. While on denying roles, copy cat is a very powerful mafia role, and it's not boring town role, so definitely consider it if you end up in the just below top range. (for those unsure why it's a good mafia role, town tends to spill what roles they have early, they can then snipe the roles they need and pick it up.)
And I'm already fairly certain we have a town sandro this game based on his offensive planning and intensive questioning. While it's not something we have to decide yet, I would totally get behind a CPR on sandro, mass medic backup snipe game.
While I agree we need to randomize our powerroles, PYP:I was also super easy because we maxed out blue roles. Without being too specific to avoid snipes, if you end up lowish in the list please pickup heroes like medics and be a hero, even if it's not a superman you can still win the game for us. Don't be afraid to pick up stuff like role cop either, you can tell a lot from peoples alignment through their roles, in the PYP's I have played mafia has never been afraid to pick mafia power roles.
And lastly, regarding the traitor. I know some people got dissapointed when they didn't get a mafia role. Let me just say in all the PYP's so far, someone else has picked traitor as well, and when they didnt get it claimed in thread. Very easy to hunt down the guilty person from a short list then.
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On May 15 2012 02:48 Barundar wrote:
Denying roles worked best in the last game I played, PYP:Interesting I think it was. I picked a recruiter GF at the number 3 pick spot in that game, but looking back I should have picked a CPR doc since it went to a mafia low down in the picking instead. That said I'm completely behind Sandrobas list. While on denying roles, copy cat is a very powerful mafia role, and it's not boring town role, so definitely consider it if you end up in the just below top range. (for those unsure why it's a good mafia role, town tends to spill what roles they have early, they can then snipe the roles they need and pick it up.)
And I'm already fairly certain we have a town sandro this game based on his offensive planning and intensive questioning. While it's not something we have to decide yet, I would totally get behind a CPR on sandro, mass medic backup snipe game.
While I agree we need to randomize our powerroles, PYP:I was also super easy because we maxed out blue roles. Without being too specific to avoid snipes, if you end up lowish in the list please pickup heroes like medics and be a hero, even if it's not a superman you can still win the game for us. Don't be afraid to pick up stuff like role cop either, you can tell a lot from peoples alignment through their roles, in the PYP's I have played mafia has never been afraid to pick mafia power roles.
And lastly, regarding the traitor. I know some people got dissapointed when they didn't get a mafia role. Let me just say in all the PYP's so far, someone else has picked traitor as well, and when they didnt get it claimed in thread. Very easy to hunt down the guilty person from a short list then.
So much pickdirecting...
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On May 15 2012 02:48 Barundar wrote:
Denying roles worked best in the last game I played, PYP:Interesting I think it was. I picked a recruiter GF at the number 3 pick spot in that game, but looking back I should have picked a CPR doc since it went to a mafia low down in the picking instead. That said I'm completely behind Sandrobas list. While on denying roles, copy cat is a very powerful mafia role, and it's not boring town role, so definitely consider it if you end up in the just below top range. (for those unsure why it's a good mafia role, town tends to spill what roles they have early, they can then snipe the roles they need and pick it up.)
And I'm already fairly certain we have a town sandro this game based on his offensive planning and intensive questioning. While it's not something we have to decide yet, I would totally get behind a CPR on sandro, mass medic backup snipe game.
While I agree we need to randomize our powerroles, PYP:I was also super easy because we maxed out blue roles. Without being too specific to avoid snipes, if you end up lowish in the list please pickup heroes like medics and be a hero, even if it's not a superman you can still win the game for us. Don't be afraid to pick up stuff like role cop either, you can tell a lot from peoples alignment through their roles, in the PYP's I have played mafia has never been afraid to pick mafia power roles.
And lastly, regarding the traitor. I know some people got dissapointed when they didn't get a mafia role. Let me just say in all the PYP's so far, someone else has picked traitor as well, and when they didnt get it claimed in thread. Very easy to hunt down the guilty person from a short list then.
Why do you think Sandro is town? There's multiple ways to pick for mafia and yeah I agree with the roles he pointed out (hell I pointed the same roles out pregame...) but mafia could pick other stuff as in I don't think the roles he picked are gamebreaking imba and we could win a game vs a time like that. Something like a mafia Mason/Pardoner would be equally strong as the things he pointed out.
We however can not win a game vs a 3KP setup or even a 4KP setup if the SK shoots into town with 20 people in this game. That's a straight up lose for us.
Not to mention that as I already said the roles he pointed out are strong but not gamebreaking strong. Yeah having town pick them sounds good and it's definitively a nice option for uncertain townies (at least) but a strong blue might be a little better or worse depending on who ends up picking the power and what it is.
Frankly if I could get a hold onto that dayvig power I'd shoot Sandro in the face d1. That's what I think about your townread on Sandro right now and about his "yeah CPR is really strong in townhands as well" when there are only 3 people in this game that really are considered to be that awesome as town, IF they are town (read: it's Sandro, Qatol, deconduo) while there are 5 other people out there who desperatly want that role.
So yeah we probably should leave it to those 3 and hope than NOT A SINGLE ONE out of those 5 (that's mafia + SK) gets a better draf than one of those 3 while hoping that alle 3 want that role, while hoping that all 3 of them are town because if one of those things we have to hope on is wrong we're screwed, but that's apparently fine with Sandroba.
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EPT
