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On May 15 2012 02:36 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2012 02:19 sandroba wrote:
@toad sorry i misread your post. You think mafia is more likely to get it if we don't assign it. Maybe you are right. But they also have to risk becoming vanilla unless they get number 5 spot. Number 5 can always pick cpr anyway if he is town. So it's really comes down to probability of mafia getting an specific spot, which is always the same. I think the CPR is way more dangerous than the GF. Yes I agree the GF is strong but it's nowhere near as strong as a CPR in the hands of a SK or mafia. If we tell people that #1 picks CPR that's 15/20 (75%) chance that it's going to be a townie. If we tell people that #5 picks CPR that's a 19,36 % Chance that a townie ends up with the CPR role if my windows-calculator is correct (15/20 * 14/19 * 13/18 * 12/17 * 11/16) which means we're screwed. In short do no like The reason I do not like it is because of what I posted pregame: + Show Spoiler [click me!] +On May 09 2012 05:31 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2012 04:44 talismania wrote:On May 09 2012 01:52 Toadesstern wrote:Toads little guide for choosing your role as #1 draft I'm going to make it a 3-way guide. a) What to pick as mafia b) What to pick as a vet town c) What to pick as a newbie-town who isn't sure if he really should play the strongest role in the game: a) You are mafia? Awesome, pick CPR. Free 1 KP per night, that's right, you just doubled your entire teams KP! Also you're not someone who's carrying a gun making you immune vs that gun-bob. b) You are a vet-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. Someone like Sandro / Qatol / foolish (you get the idea, right?) would destroy mafia as CPR. Also Mafia can't possibly have that role. c) You are a noob-town? Awesome, pick CPR. Multishot-vig with infinite bullets and it isn't even compulsive! Isn't that great? Oh did I already mention that it has an build in idiot-safety as well? You either are a vig with infinite bullets or you are a medic if you end up targeting the same guy mafia was hitting making him confirmed town. You probably should never use your role though, you're a noob but mafia not having it is better than any other role in the game. Edit: I edited this post at least 10 times. If you're mafia and pick CPR as pick 1, then you will draw a lot of fire if you're still alive and the kp has been 2+ for three nights in a row or something like that. Also dangerous because #1 pick is likely to be checked by some role or the other. Probably still worth it, but not without its drawbacks. Just a little example for your: Mafia team: 3 (CPR + vig + RB/framer/GF/janitor) + 1 traitor = 4 => Town team = 11 people. So it's 11 vs 4 let's say town mislynches d1, which is not unlikely at all => 10vs 4 => nightphase with 3 KP => 7vs 4 and it's lylo after a single cycle. Who cares about what happens 3 cycles after the game started when you win in 2 cycles if you manage to not shoot into protection / vets / hider. Edit: And I'm not saying that because I think it's imba, it's more about that people should think about the set-up because mafia will most likely have an awesome plan if they're in irc or in a Mafia QT argueing about what's the best thing to do given the drafts. Mafia is probably not going to srew up the picks imo, but I could see townies screwing up the picks. That's why I am talking about those things because I think we need to be on an equal stage to start the game or it's instant gg :p There's some roles that are really nasty for both town and mafia and I think CPR is something mafia should never lay there hands on if town wants a chance. GF is pretty awesome as well given the changes and so is a pardoner if you use it the right way. Edit2: Oh and that's talking about a 3 vs 12 set-up. I don't actually know if it's going to be something like that. Usually a mini is 12 players and 3v9 or something like that, so maybe it's even a 4v11 setup, who knows :p Yes it gets a little better because the game got a little big better, so mafia KP was kind of nerfed because it did not increase while the townie number did. However we now got a SK with one KP as well. Yeah that guy might end up hitting mafia as well but I'd rather not count on that to be true and win myself. So in short: I don't think the situation got better and it's still as dangerous as it was pregame. I'd like to make it either: #1 Pick CPR
#2 Pick CPRor #1 Pick CPR
#2 Pick RB and let him RB the CPR.Personally I agree that the GF is a lot stronger than the usual GF but I don't think it could end up gamebreaking like the CPR will if it gets into SK / mafia hands. Same about janitor / RB / framer) so I do not think we need to deny those. If someone is not sure what to pick, go ahead and pick one of those. A one-time vengeful GF is not going to hurt town THAT much even if noone denies it that we need it gone no matter what. I think a nice townie blue role is about as good as someone picking GF / Janitor to deny mafia taht role because those are 1 hit only and RB / Framer are still really good for mafia but nothing like the other roles that were mentioned. So if someone is not sure if he really should pick a strong blue role pick one of those.
I agree with this wholeheartedly. CPR doc is way stronger for mafia than GF. GF is one shot, maybe. CPR doc is an extra KP every night. I'm not even sure scum team picks GF when they could pick day vig, which would essentially be the same thing to them (except kill someone right before they're lynched - in fact if the vote were close enough it might even save the scum day vig, allowing for an extra vote the next day).
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On May 15 2012 02:31 Qatol wrote:
First things first: do NOT post your number selections. If you have posted them, consider changing it. I'm making another post to explain why.
Okay, let me explain. It plays into the mafia's hands to tell everyone what you will be picking. It is in the town's best interests to have as many clashes as possible.
Townies informing the thread of their selections helps the mafia control where they will be picking. Because role assignment for the first few spots is generally forced (and it seems likely this will be the case again), the mafia are able to grab the "assigned" roles they actually want by picking at the assigned spot or earlier. You might argue that the town should kill them for deviating from the role assignments, but this has been an ineffective deterrant in previous games (the town tends to get sidetracked and townies tend to be just as likely to deviate from these plans as mafia/SK are).
Furthermore, it allows the mafia to stay out of the "assigned" roles they do not wish to have - this is also bad for the town because we want the mafia stuck with no role or with a role they cannot use effectively without becoming suspicious.
Instead, the town would much prefer the number selections to be as random as possible. An ideal situation for the town would be for everyone to select the exact same numbers - that way the mafia have literally no control over where they will be picking. In such a situation, unless they get very lucky, they will have to adjust their gameplan and potentially the roles they aim for because of the clashing. They may wind up with a far weaker slate of roles (or even missing on a few picks entirely) and this should be the goal of the town during the number selection and drafting phases.
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@risk.nuke I'm sharing my experiences from past PYP's, call it what you want.
@Toad I agree there is a few more powerful roles, namely jack of all trades and copycat. IMO jack is a most have for a denial plan, with Copy Cat as a possibility.
Also, I'm fairly certain I belong on that lists of "vets" as well :p
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You guys are missing the point. The point is to deny roles that should never be used as town and are very good picks as mafia. CPR or a couple others mentioned are going to be used and wanted as both alignments. So it doesn't really makes sense to deny them. Also @toad the calculation you did is ??? The chance of mafia or sk being number 5 is the same as any other number which is 25% always. If number 5 townie picks cpr and gets vanilla that means one of the guys above him is mafia.
So let me reiterate. GF screws up a lot of stuff and is assigned because it's powerful only as scum. RB/janitor/pardoner are powerful only as scum and give us a free scum if they are ever used. That's why they are assigned. CPR being assigned doesn't net us free scum, since we can't say who performed the kill and a townie cpr should be trying to kill scum with it anyway.
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The thing about sandro list is every role on there can be acounted for if used, well exept RBer. but are DTs will be more powerful knowing where the GF is. And if the janitor is ever used, then we get one free scum to kill.
CPR, while powerful, has no way of traseing its kill, so its not an accountable role like the others are. If scum get #1 pick and we tell him to take CPR, he can just grap something else powerful, and leave cpr for his buddy down at the bottom.
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I really don't think CPR is that great a town role except to deny scum. Its only real use in town's hands is a ballsy person who thinks they can hit scum early and often, or if the player with it acts as pawn for the rest of the town (i.e. uses the cpr doc as a second lynch - which is fraught as well but has some potential upside). It is however a great scum role, especially if no one knows who has it. If it's pick #1, and pick #2 is roleblock, then like I and toad said #2 roleblocks the cpr doc, and the doc can confirm that he was roleblocked, meaning both of those roles are locked down unless we decide to use them later on for some reason.
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On May 15 2012 03:51 talismania wrote:
I really don't think CPR is that great a town role except to deny scum. Its only real use in town's hands is a ballsy person who thinks they can hit scum early and often, or if the player with it acts as pawn for the rest of the town (i.e. uses the cpr doc as a second lynch - which is fraught as well but has some potential upside). It is however a great scum role, especially if no one knows who has it. If it's pick #1, and pick #2 is roleblock, then like I and toad said #2 roleblocks the cpr doc, and the doc can confirm that he was roleblocked, meaning both of those roles are locked down unless we decide to use them later on for some reason.
CPR Doc would work well in town hands if we have a lot of discussion down D1. It would at least give them enough analysis to make an educated guess and act on it.
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but the CPR is more powerful than a GF is in mafiahands meaning that if any of 1 to 5 is mafia they will probably pick CPR and not just only #5 because it's almost instant win for mafia if they get that role.
I don't actually think the GF screws up that much. A Role cop would be nice for mafia and it might be somewhat nice for town but I really don't see it as a strong town role. Parrity Cop gets strong later in the game, as in it's weaker than a usual DT (without paranoid and shit of course).
So I don't think the town DT roles are that strong. I'd rather have a townie pick tracker (!!!) or bullet-bob because those 2 are WAY stronger in town hands than the other 2 DT roles I mentioned above and the GF ability doesn't work against those 2.
So I don't really see the GF being that annoying other than the vengeful part which is strong, but it's not messing with town at all.
So again. Yeah the roles on sandros list are strong but they are not that strong that I'd consider them gamebreaking. A mafia or SK who can lay a hand on a CPR is gamebreaking and it's a straight up lose for town.
What's the point of making a denial list at all if it's not roles that seem to be to powerful for mafia to have them we're discussing.
It seems like Sandro and everyone agrees that a mafia CPR or a SK CPR is way more nasty than anything he listed, yet he tells us we shouldn't deny it because it could be a huge asset to town as well because mafia won't care about wether a nooby or a vet gets a hold on the CPR, they can just tell them what to shoot.
I think it's something like that:
It's INCREDIBLE HIGH RISK and somewhat high reward if we go for sandros plan and just hope that one of the vets ends up being drafted before every other mafia and SK and on top of that picks CPR instead of hider or vet.
It's pretty much no risk at all for mafia and incredible high reward for mafia if they can lay a hand on that CPR thing.
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lord no - it would be just as lucky as the day one lynch. CPR doc actually being used by town to kill scum is something that should only be done with the strongest evidence, if at all. Any mis-hits with cpr doc are as good as scum getting it.
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ebwop ^ above directed at sentinel.
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Ye don't vig shot night one in any case, it's almost always a miss. Toad let me put it this way: I don't think TL towns in their current condition can win vs a normally playing scum team without power roles. While DT's are not super powerful, having enough of them adds up over time. Likewise town vigi's are about the only way scum dies in the games I've seen lately. Therefore this game is just as much about securing we get these roles as it is about denying scum power roles/extra shots.
I do agree CPR doc is stupidly powerful in mafia hands though, my problem is we can't assing it without also keeping track of the copycat. Otherwise mafia is just going to get the copycat and shoot cpr doc. I'm willing to hear ideas on how you suggest to control it?
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that is indeed a drawback I didn't think of 
Give me some time to think about it
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Agreed completely with Qatol's post btw, we want as much clashing as possible, since mafia can avoid clashing with each others.
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Ok can't think of something. the Copy Cat makes my / talis plan useless.
I still think Sandros plan is much nicer from a mafia point of view than a town point of view so I'm still disagreeing with that and would rather make everyone choose themselves than following that plan.
So if someone can come up with a nice idea that would be great. I'm taking a break and maybe I'll have a genius idea while doing that break :p
Or explain to me why a GF is so incredible powerful that it is more important to deny that role to Mafia than to have a strong blue role like a tracker / vet or hider in spot #1 would be.
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Unless we do a night start, the copycat will get whatever the role is of whos lynched first, unless that person flips vanilla.
So how about this, we deny the role by having CPR on the the pick list, and then we have the assigied RBer RB em till we are sure of alignment.
Should the first lynch drop vanilla, we Doc the CPR so copycat becomes a non issue.
The only hole with this plan is if both the roleblocker and CPR end up in Mafia hands, whitch is highly unlikely.
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nvm, the other hole is that if the person who is suposed to pick CPR is mafia, he can pick something else, and let his buddy grab it -___-
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On May 15 2012 04:38 hiro protagonist wrote:
Unless we do a night start, the copycat will get whatever the role is of whos lynched first, unless that person flips vanilla.
So how about this, we deny the role by having CPR on the the pick list, and then we have the assigied RBer RB em till we are sure of alignment.
Should the first lynch drop vanilla, we Doc the CPR so copycat becomes a non issue.
The only hole with this plan is if both the roleblocker and CPR end up in Mafia hands, whitch is highly unlikely.
What if mafia gets RB but not CPR?
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On May 15 2012 04:40 hiro protagonist wrote:
nvm, the other hole is that if the person who is suposed to pick CPR is mafia, he can pick something else, and let his buddy grab it -___-
nono, that's actually a good point. If we make it the way I said (make #1 and #2 pick CPR and force the RB to RB #1 on top of that?) that's np, because mafia can't pick something else and let his buddy grab it because #2 will grab it as well. Unless of course people do whatever they want to do (if that's the case making a plan is useless anyways so I'm assuming that's not the case) or if both #1 and #2 end up being mafia, but come on, how likely is that ^^
So what you said is true. The copy cat will get the power of whoever gets lynched d1. That way we need to make sure someone gets lynched d1 and it's np at all.
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On May 15 2012 04:43 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2012 04:38 hiro protagonist wrote:
Unless we do a night start, the copycat will get whatever the role is of whos lynched first, unless that person flips vanilla.
So how about this, we deny the role by having CPR on the the pick list, and then we have the assigied RBer RB em till we are sure of alignment.
Should the first lynch drop vanilla, we Doc the CPR so copycat becomes a non issue.
The only hole with this plan is if both the roleblocker and CPR end up in Mafia hands, whitch is highly unlikely. What if mafia gets RB but not CPR?
then we have a dead mafia.
CPR shoots RB.
If RB is town he better rb's the CPR or he is toast.
If he is mafia he better rb's the CPR or he is toast.
That way we deny both CPR and RB with one pick! Unless of course CPR ends up being mafia.
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EPT
