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We have a serious lurker problem. The following people need to considerably step up their level of contributions and help town out;
Lurking particularly badly
- Macheji
- Solohan50
Lurking but posting enough to get by
- Therapist
- TheRavensName
Contributing, but want more
- BlueyD
- Lorant
Crossfire dying doesn't surprise me all that much, I was thinking that Mafia would probably target either a lurker, Pure-SC2, Nova_Terra or possibly myself.
Why did I not find his death surprising?
Crossfire had been lurking fairly hard to start the game, he was unwilling to take a stand on anything really. His posts were wishy-washy-ish. Suspected a few people here and there but never built a solid case, defended himself from Lorant a little bit, although he wasn't in significant danger.
All this gives the impression that he wasn't really trying to ruffle any feathers and fly beneath the radar. Now in my mind, when I think about who could possibly have those motivations, it would either be a Blue or a Mafia. As it turns out Crossfire was a Vigilante, now why does this make him a good target? Easy, the Mafia are all well aware of who each other are, and I would imagine either 1-2 would be lurking trying to avoid as much responsibility and suspicion as possible.
So for them to shoot into the Lurkers, I figure the odds are they will either pick off a dis-interested townie or a blue trying to hide, neither of which are a bad result for Mafia.
This is why I think we really really need to start pushing these lurkers to step up and take some responsibility, yes this is still early days. But we have had like 80hours to contribute, that's over three days and some people have posted less than 10 times.
That is pathetic, if you are town what reason do you have for trying to blend into the background and contribute absolutely nothing? I honestly can't find any.
My Proposal
I think we should seriously consider lynching into this group of lurkers. At the moment I still think @Lazermonkey will be a good lynch, but he will be around the day after also. And the longer we let these lurkers contribute absolutely nothing towards the town's success the more detrimental it will be. If it comes to Day 3 and we still have people barely contributing, you are fast approaching the point where you have to lynch right or we lose.
Feedback
Please note, this is just my observations of where we currently stand, I would really appreciate some feedback and opinions of what you guys think.
Clearly the fact that we have a lurker problem is not really in dispute. I admit this is a bit of a radical plan, but I think if we can fix the lurker problem sooner rather than later, we will have more posts to analyse from which we can hopefully pick up information from.
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Now that the night is over, here are my thoughts:
Macheji - Has only one post of note and no real analysis so far. I really need to hear more from him before I can say for sure. I can certainly understand the lurking through Day 1 because of the broken laptop, and he says he posted against his better judgement on Night 1, but did so nonetheless. If the lurking continues through Day 2 and longer, however, then I would find it quite suspicious. For now though, I'll consider it a null read.
Therapist - Relatively close to the notes for Macheji, minus computer breakage. Has more posts, but not a whole lot of analysis either. I'll consider it a null read as well, for now, but I will definitely be leaning towards scum if the lurking continues.
TheRavensName - His vote switch at the end has me a little concerned. At that point in the game, it made absolutely zero difference in the outcome, but it would allow a player to distance himself from the lynching of a Townie (oneplus). He also didn't seem to back up this vote switch with much besides:
On April 18 2012 04:58 TheRavensName wrote:
Now as to why I switched, personally I thought Pure made a decent argument. I don't regret anything about oneplus even though he did die, he is not much a loss; similiar to how my death would be. I do not reget voting Oneplus, at the time it seemed like the correct decision based on what people were bringing up and what others were reading into the situations. Pures argument about slips and the like is what convinced me to swap sides.
Combine that with a fair amount of posts, but little analysis, and I'm leaning towards either scum or just bad gameplay.
Lorant - This is one that confuses me a bit. Between the FourFace posts and everything else, this took me awhile to sift through. He has posted a couple of good analysis posts and also calls for votes based more on evidence, rather than minor things. On the other hand, the Crossfire vote is strange and had absolutely zero effect, which would be a good place to hide if you're scum that doesn't want to get caught up in a heated vote. There's also the crazy idea about have 4-man counsel, which I feel is really bad for Town. I find it especially odd because the idea of having a leadership counsel follows this post that says leaders are bad:
On April 16 2012 21:16 Lorant wrote:It is natural to consider someone who posts a lot to be your leader. I have a general advice to all the players, don't do that. Being able to juggle with ideas in multiplayer is a more valid qualification than writing everything you can think of right away in order to satisfy your itchy fingers. + Show Spoiler +If you feel like the latter kind of person you should leave this thread neat and go typerace instead. typeracer
I honestly can't tell if these contradictions are a ploy to distance himself from Nova/Lazer, if it's an elaborate scum trap, or if it's just the rantings of a delusional FourFace townie. My read on this is...confused.
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I have time for one very brief post before school,
I did fully intend to vote immediately after daypost, but once it actually got to the daypost i just wanted to fall asleep.
Im very interested in why mafia went for a bluekill on crossfire. im thinking that this could be a sign that we are totally off.
Also im very surprised that lazer hasnt defended himself. im still trying to decide of that makes him more townie.
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Pure’s case on Lazer is very good in my opinion. Just want to add something on the whole Nova-Lazer connection:
- Nova is the first of the Nova-Lazer pair to agree to lurker lynch
- Nova is the first to call Solo scummy
- Nova has his vote on macheji when Lazer puts his on the same player
- Nova asks Solohan to find his own suspicious behavior, Lazer says Solo should respond
- When oneplus calls them out, Lazer is the one who first turns on the other.
These aren’t really buddies. This is Lazer trying to ride on Nova’s wave, and he gets off the wave right as Nova gets suspicious in some people’s eyes. This is not something we can really hold against Nova in my opinion. This is certainly something that makes Lazer suspicious.
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Just… Wow, Lorant…After you made a big deal about Nova “betraying the trust” of oneplus and being unfit as leader and trying to take the aforementioned leadership for a 4 man council handpicked by you, you post a joke end-of-night post. I don’t know what to make of this. Looks a bit scummy to me, but on the other hand, that post is such a joke… It’s too easy. You even bring up the stupid council-of-4 again after people have attacked you for it.
Please stop fooling around and play the game. Defend yourself.
1. I’ll ask you to explain why you left us nothing (not even a quick list of reads) in case of your death, and I’ll ask you what your current scumreads are.
2. Also, in case it got buried, I’ll say it again: I’d also like you to explain why you flagged Pure_SC2 as scum. I mean, reasons other than ‘your gut’.
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To Daynor: That’s an interesting suggestion. We do have a lurker problem, but I think your solution is too radical unless we can get a really good case on a lurker. I remind you, that if we mislynch we’re at 5vs3 (MYLO) tomorrow, and with mandatory lynching MYLO is essentially the same as LYLO.
I think we should concentrate on getting the most scummy person now that we have a lot of info out. I also do think we should start making cases on our less active players. I will do that tomorrow, for now I have to sleep.
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@ BlueyD
Thanks for providing some input on my suggestion, still want to hear from others as well. Of the lurkers I reckon either Solohan50 or TheRavensName would be the ones I am most concerned with, and I could quite possibly form a case against both that I would be happy enough to present, but at this stage I am not sure how wise it would be to post cases for multiple individuals, we should probably try come to a unified conclusion.
Currently I do still have Lazermonkey as my strongest scum read, so I would be more than happy to post my case on him and also push the lynch in that direction. But at this stage i feel we really need to motivate the lurkers to contribute. Lynching one provided the case is solid I think would accomplish this fairly well.
On Lorant
Based on Day 1, I was happy to read him as leaning town, but some of his more recent posts are starting to push me away from that direction. One of the issues is the point you raised, he pushes everyone to post some analysis prior to daybreak here.
On April 18 2012 05:29 Lorant wrote:
Post what you'd like others to hear in case you die.
Says he will go off and prepare his statement.
On April 18 2012 06:48 Lorant wrote:
A little disturbance in eloquence there but it's alright, now I'll leave you talking to yourself while I'm preparing for my statement.
Then returns at the deadline to post a playlist. So he was there and I personally haven't looked at the playlist, but I imagine it would have taken a similar amount of time to make as posting some brief thoughts on his reads. To have such dis-interest in providing anything prior to the deadline, I can't help but get the impression he either knew he was safe, or simply doesn't care about the town. Either of those outcomes is a problem.
If he posted that for any other reason I would really love to hear it.
'The Council'
Several people have mentioned their dis-approval of this idea, I personally am not terribly keen on the idea either. It gives me the impression of a stalling tactic a way to waste time and discussion, and to that extent I think it has succeeded.
In amongst the rubbish, he does raise some points which I find reasonable;
- Establishing order as he puts it, to me means a good atmosphere. Yeah sure, that's fine.
- The idea of a council as far as a group of people contributing to the construction and refinement of a case on a possible lynch target, that is also fine.
- Arbitrarily assigning players onto said council? That's where it starts to get a bit stupid again.
@ BlueyD, about Nova_Terra
I notice you had a town read on Nova early in the game, you stated as much and provided some defense for him when he was a lynch target.
I myself am starting to lean towards Nova_Terra being more town than Mafia. I just want to know, has your opinion changed? I have in my notes that you believe one of either @Lazer or @Nova is mafia but not both.
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@Daymor
I agree with you on the lurker problem we have, though it's good to see Solohan's input today and think he had some good analysis there.
Of the three other lurkers (Macheji, Therapist, TheRavensName), the only one I have a slight read on is TheRavensName. I haven't looked at this closely, but am aware he switched votes out late when it didn't make a difference, and voted Nova while not being sure of me - which seems like a strange thing to do.
I'm really not sure about a lurker vote right now, as we have several other actual leads to go on. We are into day2, we've lost 2 town and I'm not sure we are in a position to lynch someone we don't have a read on.
I've not included Lazer there, but he hasn't posted since his oneplus vote, and is lurking hard right now. It makes me think someone has told him to stop posting in order to get out of the spotlight which further adds to my suspicion. Nova stated he thought that this made him seem more town. @Nova, why is this?
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Reading all your cases is enjoyable, wasting space to argue about the council is not so stop that. I'd like to try a different approach than posting cases, I'll be looking at agenda to find what's crackalackin in that collective little scum head. I'll be defending myself against the accusations in a subsequent post right after this one.
Why would scum shoot Crossfire99 (clues found in his filter)
a. To reinforce what he said. Scum sought out someone who said exactly what they want to achieve (who they want to kill) so they bring his posts to the spotlight. On April 17 2012 05:45 Crossfire99 wrote:
Ugh...this really sucks. I don't think oneplus is scum, but I also don't think nova is scum. Since you have been actively contributing Nova, I am going to vote for oneplus to save you. Sorry, oneplus.
##Vote: oneplus
My question is would scum kill someone who accused them directly? I think it would be hideous, they'd much rather mold the kill into an instrument to get the next mislynch + Show Spoiler +Who made a wastebasket case against him? Me. Who voted for Crossfire? Me. Who did Crossfire ask about the reason to vote for him instead of those who had been called out as suspicious? Me. I'm pretty fucked .. this is exactly why I should be confirmed town BUT since I'm the one pointing this out I could also have masterminded this to trick all of you. So I'm not confirmed town at all but the suspicion on me is a game that has advanced to a higher level. but I also don't think nova is scum. Since you have been actively contributing Nova, I am going to vote for oneplus to save you
b. Bluesniping
Crossfire may have given himself away with this post, note the bold part
On April 15 2012 11:37 Crossfire99 wrote:
I disagree with the idea of a no lynch day 1. I agree that we most likely won't get a mafia, but that doesn't mean a mislynch is entirely bad. If there isn't a lynch day 1, no one takes a stand on the lynch, and we don't learn much because there is no discussion of who to lynch. This also means that the power roles will be at a disadvantage because their choices for their night 1 actions will be mostly random due to the lack of information. With a lynch, everyone has to take a side, so even if this only provides a small amount of information, it is information the power roles can use to narrow down the targets of their actions.
Basically, I think we must lynch someone day 1.
Personally I think this was the best kill I've ever seen in a mafia game. Even better if those who kept the lynch-or-nolynch-on-day-1 debate going were in fact scum to fish for blue reaction, and wheel it in like they did.
My suspicion up to this point is on solohan because Crossfire was constantly referring to him .. so I think he could've noticed the blueslip more easily. The fact that he didn't tell town about this makes me think he's scum. So this is more of an anti-scumslip. Outing himself as scum by not giving out info that he could've gotten through analysis and observation. Same story with Therapist. So that's the direction I'd like to tunnel today.
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@ Pure-SC2
I agree it was good to see Solohan's thoughts, but he is basically coming in, posting enough to avoid suspicion and appear he is contributing then disappearing into the shadows again. Just like many of the other lurkers. This is the main problem I have with them.
I really do believe that there is at least one, possibly two mafia just hiding amongst the lurkers. Surely after the volume of posts in the thread there should be more than information to make a case on anyone (except Macheji who has posted so little he needs to be pressured), whether that case be town or mafia. Before the end of the day I want to see these people contributing. If you are town there is zero reason to not contribute something, it doesn't matter if you get the wrong read, it's your logic and reasoning that we want.
I agree that TheRavensName is probably the most suspicious, but that is also because he has posted more than most of the other lurkers. That is precisely the reason they are lurking. They don't want to incriminate themselves. At some point we are going to have to lynch into the lurkers. But I do appreciate the fact that you think we need a solid case before we do so, I completely understand and think the same.
As stated earlier, I still think Lazermonkey is my favourite lynch target. Would like to see something from the other people too.
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EBWOP:
2nd Para should be 'more than enough information to make a case'
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1. About the statement. I meant to troll. There's no reason to hide my true nature now that it's clear I'm FourFace.
2. Council or no council, that is the question. To council is to do and to do is to council. I honestly believed we could get more quality discussion if we had a conglomerate of active people synchronizing their votes based on the quaity of each member's argumentation. For various reasons already stated .. the argumentation would be "out there" for everyone to see AND generating an additional dimension of information which is: who is compliant to drop his personal accusation of a suspect in favor of a heavier vote on another suspect and why/to what degree. The council would also be a counterweight to all the baseless voting that has been going on Day1. So everyone outside the council - + Show Spoiler +, everyone inside the council - + Show Spoiler +make up your mind if you want to-be-in/there to be a council
3. Was there anything else?
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@BlueyD I tought the lynch was in a couple of hours. Because of the tehnical issue i couldn't look into the timing exactly but i knew it was sometime that night, since the ''i'll post a case if i have time''. I had no ideea it was in a couple of minutes.
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Reading everything from the start at the moment. Will post my notes when I'm done.
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Alright, I'm going to try being a good player so heres a little thing I noticed based on Solohan's filter, which makes me think Nova might have been on the right track with him
1. He starts off making a decision that lynching lurkers is okay, but then starts to embrace the no lynching immediately but unlike the others only makes that one post about it then avoids the topic, probably enough to bait his fishing out that it wasn't necessary (Crossfire even makes a post DIRECTLY against his argument for it, which Solohan acknowledges was posted, but makes no real comment on it.)
2. He starts off with a case against Nova, after he had already voiced suspicion on Solohan, and then literally doesn't post again until after the vote. At this point heat on him wasn't that high except from Nova, but I think that makes it a little more suspicious sense it seemed like he wanted to get in, get his vote on someone he thought would get killed, then hide out so he couldn't get cross examined.
3. His next post is not only after the vote, but the entire night cycle. And he posts against the lurkers, no mention of his case against Nova again. He was fairly convinced that Nova was Scum the day before and made no motion of addressing that. I think just accusing the lurkers as opposed to more active people is a touch too safe.
3B. Personally, even if I'm just reading it wrong, I find the fact he thinks that I swapped my vote to his side, a person he voted for and made no discussion on anyone else, makes me suspicious. I notice he seems to only voice suspicion about people who other people have been, such as myself and Nova. Its a touch too safe in my opinion.
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Clarity on 3B: Makes me suspicious of him.*
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I've spent some time today reviewing Lorant's posts as I've been confused by his posts and don't have a read.
One thing we know, he is not a newbie and is playing under a smurf account (as he was previously FourFace). The FourFace post looks accidental, but I think we have to keep in mind that he might have had some reason for intentionally posting from that account and outing his "smurf".
Either way, he is not a newbie. I don't know anything about his history as "FourFace", but Nova seemed to know the name and have some association with it. Is this relevant? No idea. @Nova, maybe you could tell us what your feel is towards FourFace?
Lorants initial posts:
- Nothing much going on here, favours a lurker lynch, recommends keeping a journal, kinda fluffy really. Makes a good point on Nova's stance on Solohan which I didn't register prior to this review
Contributes to day 1 vote:
- First post of real substance is a vote for Crossfire. Mainly based on gut feel, and due to Crossfires number of posts on the no-lynch policy and sheeping Nova on Solohan. Says he will remove his vote if Crossfire adds a single valid argument about Solo being scummy.
He then makes his FourFace post (which he doesn't realise until Nova points it out)
- This post raises the left field suggestion of the council, and he drops the names of who he sees in this council and again he's essentially attempting to lead this here as he states "Our" first order if business shall be to review his suspicions of Crossfire.
- I've gotta admit, I didn't take this post seriously as I thought it was just a ridiculous throw away post to provoke some reaction and only revisited it once I realised he was actually serious. I really don't know how to read it.
- His explanation for smurfing is that he wanted to move away from his FourFace meta (doing crazy stuff to make people believe he's town).
He then contributes some analysis and response to my case on Nova, and fingers Lazer early on
- This is after Daymar and I had posted suspicions on Lazer
- Advises all players to not follow someone who posts a lot as a leader
- Condemns Lazer for calling Solohan scummy without having gathered enough evidence to help town make an opinion on him.
Recommends everyone to prepare a statement and post it 2-3 minutes before daybreak
- Good advice I think, but this is quite an interesting post to note based on what occurs later
Personally states me as Scummy, doesn't elaborate and states it could be just a gut feeling.
- Implies that while he finds me scummy, he thinks the way I post should be encouraged so he is willing to compromise his personal option of me for the sake of empowering discussion. No further details provided on why he finds me scummy. @Lorant, what do you find me scummy?
Lorant gets into a back and forth with Nova - and this back and forth needs further analysis I think.
- Some interesting points here, but he comes across quite melodramatic and is set on his council idea, and arbitrarily adjusts who is/isn't in it.
- Seems to be trying to lead people into the council idea (while stating he doesn't want Nova to be considered a leader anymore). Interesting to remember here that he advised everyone earlier to not follow someone who posts a lot as a leader.
- Blames Nova/Lazer for the lynch on oneplus. This is reasonable to me based on what happened.
Lorant provides his night statement
- This is a joke and a poor joke at that. I'm really not sure how to take this, and even more so I'm not sure how he intended it to be taken,
- After requesting everyone to prepare a statement, and stating himself he is preparing his own statement, this is an insult to the town I feel.
Lorant provides some analysis
- I found this interesting, as he had some different angles for looking at things.
- His points on why Crossfire was taken out were good, specifically the bluesniping section.
- Adds more confusion though with his comments about how he made a case against Crossfire and how that looks bad for him, then goes on to say how because he's pointing this out that he could have masterminded it all to trick us.
- Fingers Solohan
Finally - a strange post about the council
- Again trying to lead into the council (he's set on this idea), offering a be in or be out stance.
Overall, I find there is way too much smoke and mirrors around Lorant right now and it makes me feel suspicious towards him. I definitely had an early town reading against him but I don't any more.
His council idea actually has some merit for me, and can see why doing something like this may provide a clearer way to lead voting, but its based on the assumption that even if a scum member is in there, there will be more town members making the scum element less influential. But what if it includes 2 scum? or 3? It sets up a chance for them to lead the voting under the guise of the council and as such I don't think it's the right approach.
Lorant, for me, you need to cut the smoke and mirrors, stop messing us around and play straight. I'll be keeping a closer eye on your filter.smurf
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Oh man, 9 pages in and i have a full paper of notes. Most of them on Nova_Terra and Lazermonkey.
I saw an obvious connection between the two of them. Share briefly with Pure-Sc2 , but tbh i find Pure-SC2 very ''town'' atm , not sure what that was about ( ganging on solohan w/o any evidence ) . I have to decide if i should make a list with everybody or just post my scum conclusion and post a case vs 1,2 people. What do you guys prefer ?
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EBWOP: @Lorant, what about me do you find me scummy?
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On April 18 2012 20:59 Macheji wrote:
Oh man, 9 pages in and i have a full paper of notes. Most of them on Nova_Terra and Lazermonkey.
I saw an obvious connection between the two of them. Share briefly with Pure-Sc2 , but tbh i find Pure-SC2 very ''town'' atm , not sure what that was about ( ganging on solohan w/o any evidence ) . I have to decide if i should make a list with everybody or just post my scum conclusion and post a case vs 1,2 people. What do you guys prefer ?
Go through it all and make your own decision. That should be based on what you think would be most beneficial to town.
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Okay, I'm here for about 10 minutes. I want to note Crossfires death. There are 3 noticeable interpretations that i have noticed so far.
1. Crossfire was killed because he was going hard on Solohan, so that would either help protect solohan from future cases by Crossfire against him or throw WIFOM against solohan,
2. Crossfire was killed because Lorant voted for him and went hard on him instead of going over anything else, and its either a way to frame Lorant or Lorant protecting himself and noting it smartly,
3. Crossfire was killed because he was an easy blueread.
The thing that is noticeable to me here is that, 2 of these 3 interpretations dont really seem to be a result of mafia being suspected by Crossfire. Also the 1 left over i find to be the most unlikely. Therefore;
Mafia didnt feel threatened enough by anyone else that they decided they could frame somebody or more likely kill a blue. So i am now worried about our reads having been very wrong.
Also, Lazer hasnt posted like, at all, recently. I think that he would have responded quickly to our pressure on him if he was mafia. WIFOM, but to me it seems like someone with a personal issue or a townie who is just bored of the game, based on experience. I wish to wait for a defense and explanation before voting him.
I am frustrated that i forgot about solohan50 in the way i did after voting oneplus. Solohan needs to fix his play up, and post something very enlightening. So for the time being,
##Vote: Solohan50
This is not final, but it will stand until Solohan posts something of good value or someone else does something scummy enough to turn me off of solohan. I really hope that Solohan tries hard to post a good filter based case.
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The time for voting to put pressure is over. You are creating enough chaos. You are promoting 3 theories, you doubt them in your post and then you propose a lynch ? We need cases, transparency, not chaos. I'm reading and reading and most of the conversations are garbage you stirred up.
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EPT
