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On April 11 2012 13:22 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2012 13:12 Risen wrote:On April 11 2012 13:07 Adam4167 wrote:
That's what I'd like to know.
At a guess its because of my small filter, which I have explained, I was sick.
If that's not it, then ask me about something I have said and I will answer to the best of my ability as to why I said it. If you were sick enough not to look at a computer screen why not replace out? I don't believe you. I used excuses to lurk all the time when I was scum. Seems like a legit vote to me. Judging by how many replacements have already happened, I didn't want to put GM in that position. My sickness was passing, so I decided to ride it out rather then request a replacement. If your case against me amounts to "I think you're lying about something that happened in real life", then that is not a case at all, and hardly a 'legit vote'.
What do you think about Toadesstern? You keep posting, but you keep not contributing anything.
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I'd wouldn't say I've contributed nothing. Regardless, my thoughts on Toad:
I don't think toad is scum. He's not just blindly bandwagoning onto votes, always giving a reason and speaking his mind, looking transparent enough while doing it (besides his horrendous posting style). I like how he has been pushing other cases, not just focusing on the one person that everyone else is focusing on for the day (i.e. his ghost case).
His frustration to Gonzaws tunnelling seems genuine.
I don't agree with his (and many others) case on Hassybaby. I would like to see Hassy take a more active approach to scum hunting today though, but I was happy with his actions over the night.
I am not interested in a Toad lynch today.
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Does anyone oppose a ghost lynch?
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On April 11 2012 13:26 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2012 13:22 Adam4167 wrote:On April 11 2012 13:12 Risen wrote:On April 11 2012 13:07 Adam4167 wrote:
That's what I'd like to know.
At a guess its because of my small filter, which I have explained, I was sick.
If that's not it, then ask me about something I have said and I will answer to the best of my ability as to why I said it. If you were sick enough not to look at a computer screen why not replace out? I don't believe you. I used excuses to lurk all the time when I was scum. Seems like a legit vote to me. Judging by how many replacements have already happened, I didn't want to put GM in that position. My sickness was passing, so I decided to ride it out rather then request a replacement. If your case against me amounts to "I think you're lying about something that happened in real life", then that is not a case at all, and hardly a 'legit vote'. What do you think about Toadesstern? You keep posting, but you keep not contributing anything.
No, what do YOU think about Toadesstern?
You say you are at work and will post your thoughts about my case later, so do so. I still think both of you are scum.
Damn, this thing I've been working on is not coming too good >_>
I need to hone my programming skills 
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I don't oppose it, but I usually am more keen on a case if someone presents it first, and THEN gauges interest. Otherwise, it looks like you're fishing for supporters, which is a bit strange.
@Risen, I thought michaelthe was scummier because of his overall wishywashiness. Jdub atm is playing a lot like Mattchew atm, which makes him hard to read (mattchew gets mislynched a lot trolololo). This is a bit off putting because jdub is, generally speaking, a bit more transparent than that.
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EBWOP: I don't oppose a ghost lynch
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the thing about ghost is that I have him as scum for his general attitude and posting style. I'll put together stuff tomorrow when I have time.
Till then, my vote's going there.
##vote ghost_403
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Okay, I just made a program that tells me which situations are unwinnable for town even if we lynch scum each day, and how many misslynches are required for us to lose in each situation.
First of all, I assume the scum KP formula is like this depending on their numbers:
Nº KP
6 3
5 3
4 2
3 2
2 1
1 1
Observation: This is variant. If the KP is different, then I can make the changes and give new info, it doesn't matter that much.
Second of all, I assume there are no medic saves, no vig shots, etc. Each night all scum KP goes through, no more and no less (just to make a big generalization and more or less know what we are up against).
What is an unwinnable situation? One where no matter how much scum we lynch, we still lose.
E.g: If we start at Day with 10v6, it's unwinable, because of this:
D-10v6
N-10v5
D-7v5
N-7v4
D-5v4
N-5v3
D-3v3 GG
Meaning if at any day we are 10v6 we win even if we lynch 3 scum in succession, because scum KP will always be 3, and then 2 (scum kill more townies than we lynch scum).
This is a list of all unwinnable situations:
(notation: If it says "N-4v3", it means that if we start a Night cycle with 4 town and 3 scum, we lose)
+ Show Spoiler +
N-2v1
N-3v2
N-4v3
N-5v3
D-5v4
N-5v4
N-6v4
D-6v5
N-6v5
N-7v4
D-7v5
N-7v5
D-7v6
N-7v6
N-8v5
D-8v6
N-8v6
N-9v5
D-9v6
N-9v6
N-10v5
D-10v6
N-10v6
N-11v6
N-12v6
N-13v6
The other part of the program I made, is to know, given a cycle and how many townies/scum remain, how many misslynches we would need to lose (i.e reaching an unwinnable scenario like before), and how many cycles would be needed to reach said scenarios.
For instance, with 24 town and 6 scum starting at Day (like this game started), town reaches an unwinnable situation with 4 misslynches in 7 cycles.
Right now, with 18 town and 6 scum starting at Day, town reaches an unwinnable situation with 2 misslynches in 3 cycles.
Sucks, I know.
I'll try to put this information at the start of each cycle.
I can give you guys the program if you want, but I don't know if that's against the rules or not (I will post it once the game ends for sure though).
The problem is that if I ever die, you guys have to either make a new program or find all this information by hand
Of course, those situations are "unwinnable" as long as all mafia KP goes through, if our blues (medics/vigs) do a good job they won't be actually unwinnable
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EBWOP:
"Meaning if at any day we are 10v6 we lose even if we lynch 3 scum in succession, because scum KP will always be 3, and then 2 (scum kill more townies than we lynch scum)."
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I know I'm about to post a big post and I know a lot of you people will be all like "uuuarg, not another one of those posts and this one is even bigger, noone can make me read THAT".
But I honestly ask you to please read this post. Don't skip it. I know it's a lot to read but it's important.
Ok do we lynch VE or Gonzaw today?
Right now both are voting for a basicly confirmed townie (read: me) and neither of those 2 is reading the game, not even with the most recent flips they're willing to read. I think we got 2 mafia palmars in here.
I'll explain this in three phases:
Phase 1 - Nightkills
We've got a claimed shot from ET against michaelthe. So for now I'm assuming he really is a town vig. Even if he is a mafia vig that doesn't matter because it's about the KP amount. Mafia only as 3 normal KP. So the important part it that this is one additional kill towards the usual 3 KP.
Ok what's left?
sputnik.theory
Jackal58
MidnightGladius
slOosh
That's 4 people. Still 1 KP more than Mafia should have, right? So now ask yourself for a second who do you think mafia shot and more importantly who was the target for our 2nd vig, no matter of alignment?
Let's assume we have a town vig for a second. Do you think a townvig would shoot someone like Jackal when there's people like Sputnik around? I doubt it.
Next question: Do you think mafia would have shot sputnik considering there's a shitload of people willing to lynch him? I doubt it. Therefore It's either 2 town vigs or 1 townvig + 1 mafiavig and the mafiavig is ET who shot michael because no way mafia would shoot sputnik. AT ALL. I doubt ET is a mafia vig though but that has nothing to do with me being confirmed.
That leaves this list of people who probably got shot by mafia, you may replace sloOsh or midnight with sputnik if you think those 2 looked equally bad but no way a townie shot Jackal:
Jackal58
MidnightGladius
slOosh
That's still 3 people. What's mafia KP? 3. That means mafia one-shotted every single one of those.
Remember who told people NOT TO protect Jackal at all costs? That's right, that's VE and WBG.
More importantly, remember who told people to protect Jackal and Toad as well? RIGHT, THAT'S ME click me!
So back to our kills. What did I just say? Mafia oneshotted those guys. Do you honestly beliefe I would be asking people to protect Jackal as a mafia if I was about to shoot Jackal with a single bullet?
In what world would I EVER do such a thing as mafia?
Phase 2 - Votes on Day 1
More onto why I am "confirmed"
Look into the people who voted d1 and how they voted. We killed a townie with Janaan. I am pretty sure there's plenty of mafia on him as we had A LOT of troubles getting a lynch at all.
Town was probably derping hardcore d1. I guess VE read that I think Hassy is mafia but did not comment on it because he did not think it was a threat because everyone ignored it. Once WBG got in the thread and placed his vote and I did the same he suddenly says he thinks Hassy is Mafia out of nowhere and places his vote there.
There's 2 options here:
EITHER Hassy is simply mafia and VE did not think it was a threat at all considering we only had like 4 hours left and need 16 people on Hassy and therefore wanted something to later point back and say "lookielookie, I tried killing hassy d1" only to switch later to janaan.
The other option is Hassy being a townie, although I doubt that's possible. In that case VE just did whatever he wanted to because both targets are town.
So basicly if Hassy is red there's probably a shitload of mafias on janaan and WBG and I pushed a red while VE conveniently jumped on the wagon himself when it looked to him like it was not going to happen and switched back to Janaan later on. If Hassy is green it's a null
Phase 3 - VE and Gonzaw the new and improves Mafia-Palmars
I'm going to make this short because this is not about me being as townish as you can get but about VE and Gonzaw being mafia. Short "sadly" means I'll be only covering one point each. It's still a wall of text.
First a little about VE:
Remember the weird post claiming VE thinks hassy is mafia?
I am talking about this one: clicky!
The second I saw that I asked wbg what he thinks about it because that post is highly suspicious, wbg said I am probably paranoid and I left it with that for the moment.
I'll just quote 3 really short phrases out of that post: Hassybaby is SCUM I think Toad is SCUM. ##Vote: Janaan
thefuck? Really?
Next thing: Remember how basicly everyone said I am looking okay or nullish except for gonzaw? VE did not say a thing because he saw everyone saying I'm okay, especially wbg and Jackal thinking I'm fine probably made him not want to touch me based on a case that's based on "Toad posts wall of texts".
He knows there's no way out of this. He is to go all-in on me to at least get another mislynch before he dies and you know what will happen the second I flip town?
gonzaw said he thinks VE and I am both Mafia. The second I flip town gonzaw will walz in this thread telling people some bullshit about being sorry how wrong he was and his reads are so off that he'll have to rethink everything, obviously no longer willing to lynch VE
Ok now a little about gonzaw: His case is still not existing. I kept asking him what his case is about. He keeps saying some bullshit about how I am not caring, not taking stances, not commiting, not asking questions and how I am so different.
Guess what. Everything he said so far was ruled out and declared to be bullshit. I am not taking stances? I did, I talked about my reads and made it pretty clear who I want dead and who I did not want dead. I was asked a shitload of questions from a lot of people. I answered every single one of those no matter how stupid. Yet he keeps telling me I am ignoring questions.
Gonzaw paddled back and said "well ok you did, BUT I should not have to ask you about those things, you should post them nonstop" which is firstly incredible wrong because I am not going to post every single read I have, especially the townie ones and secondly people already told me to chill out because I was posting way too much. He never wanted me to post more, he had to find a cheap excuse to keep his case alive. If I do post more about my reads people like wbg, VE and Jackal would have an easy time discrediting me because I am shitting up the thread and at least wbg did and if I did not post more about my reads I am considered to be mafia by gonzaw and he keeps on bombing the thread. He created a classic lose-lose situation for me and no matter what I did in that situation I would have been called mafia for what I was about to do.
Next thing he does is saying I don't care. I show him Mafia 48 telling him people thought I am the most likely guy in the WHOLE GAME to be a townie because I was caring about the game so much.
He again paddels back, agrees that that was wrong as well only to say "well you only pushed targets you wanted to push in Mafia 48". Well duh, what should I have pushed instead? Pulled a VE and be like "GUYSES I WANT TO LYNCH RAD SO I AM VOTING ANNUL LOL" ?!? If that's not what you were talking about but instead were talking about me pushing town targerts and not pushing mafias this is no different because we got a single flip so far. That guy was green and I was NOT on it. How in the world are you telling me I am pushing the wrong targets when you should not have information about such a thing as a townie? Especially not on d1 / n1
Next thing that happens is me asking for some example. So far he kept telling me I am posting different. What about some examples from my older games that show that I am posting so different? He goes on and says I am talking about old games in this game and talking about useless stuff which I only do as mafia. Newsflash: Storm clicky-clicky!
Yeah that post I did was pretty retarded, not one of my brightest moments, but saying I only do that stuff as mafia obviously is not true.
He paddles back, agrees that he was wrong there again to say my style resembles Storm the most but that's only because Mafia 48 doesn't count because it's already so old. I am sorry I am not 24 / 7 rolling mafia. It only played mafia twice ever: mafia 48 and Resistance 1.
I tell him to explain again what he thinks is "weird" about me and ask about specific examples because clearly nothing he said so far was right. He keeps on saying I am weird, doesn't provide any more examples other than what already was said and keeps repeating stuff he already agreed to be wrong.
That's it for gonzaw and his case on me. Now tell me: HOW IN THE WORLD is that guy a townie. He was probably told to tunnel me a bit by some of his buddies because of stuff like that:
On February 24 2012 13:20 Radfield wrote:
No, that's not why you were in group 2. I just needed more padding for group 2: risk.nuke because the previous game i played with him he was hyper-aggressive which often makes people suspicious, and Toad because your scum play is very 'pro-town' oriented which means that even if you are posting pro-town it's easy to be suspicious of you.
According to VE I am unreadable. That guy claimes to have legendary reads right now. How is it that someone like Kita FAKECLAIMES DT who got a green check on me in Storm because according to him I was so obviously town (just imagine the situation, fakeclaiming a DT check as a townie, that's rather drastic if you name is not schworz) to save me from being lynched by mafia + SK.
Yet VE walzes in this thread saying he wants to lynch me because I am unreadable. Because I am unreadable. I'm going to repeat that. I AM UNREADABLE?!? the fuck-#2 and the fuck-#3 at the same time.
There's two possiblities here:
1) He really thinks I am unreadable and has not a single Scumread that is better than true-rnd.
2) He really thinks I am mafia in which case I am not unreadable if he thinks he is right.
Case 1 is obviously not the case. IF that would be the case it would mean VE has not a single scumread on d1 with 6 dead townies that he considers to be better than true-rnd. That'd be totally awful.
Case 2 is interesting. Why should he claim I am unreadable if he thinks I am mafia? Either he lies about thinking I am mafia OR he wants to have a nice cop-out after lynching me claiming "sry guys, I told you he is unreadable  "
Soooo. Long post is already long so I'll stop here. I haven't talked a lot about VE and gonzaw but I'm already doubting all of you will read this because it's so long so I'm stopping here.
Take what I said into consideration:
Do you really think I am a mafia who single-target-shot Jackal just to ask for medic protection on Jackal prior to shooting him?
Do you really think it's a good idea to lynch the guy who was not on the townie lynch d1 while probably of bunch of townies tried to get janaan killed?
Do you really think Gonzaw and VE are townies considering what I just said?
For those of you you answer a single or more of those 3 questions with yes go ahead and click the spoiler please:
+ Show Spoiler [click me!] +
For those of you who answered all of the 3 questions with a no: Congratz on being awesome.
Now talk about who we should lynch today. I am eating my hat if one of those two guys turns out to be town and I've only got a single hat. That's a fancy Faschings-hat (according to dict.cc that word exists in english as well!) and eating that would be painful:
+ Show Spoiler [my hat] +It's actually not MY hat but the hat of a friend and they're all the same ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/1F6zi.png)
That being sad. I'll quote myself from this very post because I can not believe how someone is possibly suggesting to lynch me given the kills we got unless that guy hasn't reath the thread or is not actively asking himself what those kills imply.
Ok do we lynch VE or Gonzaw today?
Oh and sry if I got a shitload of spelling mistakes or words missing inbetween. It's 8 am in germany so I'm still pretty sleepy. It took me an hour to write and check it.
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I actually think you're right, Toad. VE might very well be scum.
VE is there a particular reason you're going after Toad and not...iunno, Hassy, or ghost, or anyone else who would fit the scum bill? I don't see why Toad looks like scum to you at all.
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Good for you to make a post that contributes at least somewhat (it would have been better if you left out the "kita checked me in Storm" shit and stuff).
Now I am the one telling you to read the thread and my filter. Ignore my case against you and your bias and frustration about it, do you still think I'm scum?
I care about this game, I talk about what's happening and try to influence it for the better outcome of town. I tried to stop the Tunkeg lynch which I thought was likely town at that point and tried to present a better lynch target, while still pressuring other players and proposing other scum candidates of my own.
Read that thread and tell me I'm mafia, go ahead.
I don't think I ever said you weren't taking stances, I said you didn't care about the game, because there were a lot of things happening around you yet you ignored all of them and kept going for your own plans (going against ghost, bickering against me, etc).
You SHOULD comment on what's happening in the thread and care about it. I don't think you even mentioned Janaan at all, or if you did it was not noticeable at all.
If you are town, I want you to understand why I'm suspicious of you. I quoted those posts from the other games to try and reflect how you didn't act like this when you were town in the previous games, where you actually cared about the game.
Also, you still don't mention my case against VE, nor the one I made about both of you being scum. Please comment on them.
Anyways, could you please take a step back, and comment on the whole picture? Why did you never even mention ST? Why did you barely mentioned Janaan? Why don't you ever mention other lurkers that are scummy (for instance), nor you try to participate with what's happening in the thread?
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THANK GOD someone with a brain is in here as well.
As mentioned I am 100% sure VE and gonzaw are mafia. I thought ghost is mafia d1 because imo he still scumslipped. Yeah I know I keep saying scumslips don't exist but that's only for guys not from the us or uk because we non native speakers end up saying bullshit that makes perfectly sense with german grammar but doesn't make sense with english grammar at all so that's not an excuse for ghost.
I actually agree with Adam on the Hassy case. I really thought he looks terrible d1 but ever since he stepped up his game I started doubting myself because what he posted looked decent except for that one post you pointed out wbg.
fancy conclusion
I am up for a VE or gonzaw lynch today, nothing else. Ghost looks promising but he's nothing like VE and gonzaw. Hassy needs reconsideration. He looks bad but started looking better ever since d1.8 or something like that.
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EBWOP:
Toad, I'd be willing to switch to VE first if you gave satisfactory answers to my case against you, and start doing what I said you should be doing (caring about the game, etc).
If you are town then you surely must at least try to do that.
Other than that, I'd like to hear more from BH.
@Wherebugsgo: Please post your thoughts on my case against VE, why I think both are scum, and my thoughts about you (if you have anything to say); don't ignore them.
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EBWOP2:
I won't take you seriously at all Toad until you make a somewhat valid case against me, and against VE too taking more stuff into account other then "Derp he said Toad and hassy was scum yet voted Janaan, and he FoSed me".
Of course I won't take you seriously unless you start caring about the game and commenting on other things other than you fixating on 1-2 players and ignoring everything else.
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EBWOP3:
I wouldn't mind killing zelblade or Zealos; which haven't done anything worthwhile by now, and I find their posting a little scummy.
Grack too, and maybe Katina, Kenpachi or even johnny, or maybe even Artanis.
*sigh* There's just too many of them it's impossible to analyse.
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Well for one, I think he's scum and you don't...his flip will give me information about you because I think he's VERY CLEARLY scum, and you lived today. While it's true that his flip doesn't say anything concrete about your alignment, it would explain why we're of one mind about Hassybaby and not Toad, when Hassybaby actually looks more town and Toad actually looks more scum after the night activity.
That's the PRIMARY reason, if you want to get down to brass tacks bugs.
Secondly, I'm more confident that Toad will flip scum now especially given his OMGUS reaction to my vote on him today...so in spite of me saying that I could be convinced to switch to Hassy earlier, you can pretty much seal that with a kiss and send it home to mama.
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I never mentioned ST because I never was sure about his alignment because I never played with him and to me he belonged into the masses of those unreadable lurkers.
I barely mentioned Janaan because I never was sure about his alignment because I never played with him and to me he belonged into the masses of those unreadable lurkers.
I don't ever mention other scummy lurkers because I never was sure about their alignment because I never played with them and to me [b]they] belonged into the masses of those unreadable lurkers.
About the very last question. Here's what I learned in big games from L. It's no use if you figure out every single mafia and tell everyone who those guys are if noone is listening. If there's already some vets around pushing the right buttons don't shit up the thread with the 1851851th case the thread has to see but join forces with the guy who can make people do what's right in your opinion. People are more likely to follow vets than a rnd guy who might or might not be right with his reads. Not to mention that they're trusting them more.
I was okay with what Jackal and especially what wbg did ever since he started to push hassy therefore there was no need for me to shit up the thread.
Oh for christs sake stop posting so much. I just refreshed to check if I missed something in your post and realized there's already 3 new ones.
I can't see how you could possibly say I am not caring about the game after that post. I stoped writing more because it was already the biggest post I did BY FAR and people are complaining about me writing to much.
And honestly I still am scared that people won't read it because it's already to big.
Will post more about you and VE later on I need a break right now and eat something first.
That being said I also will reread your filter. I have to if you want me to post more about you. You're still going to be lynched today or tomorrow.
for now I'm putting my vote on VE
##Vote VE
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WOOOOO! I'm going to sleep. I'll post much more tomorrow. I didn't think I'd see it, but a VE lynch? Hell to the yes.
##vote VisceraEyes
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Yay! People have finally realized!
##Vote: Toadesstern
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/nhWYn.jpg)
