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On April 05 2012 03:05 wherebugsgo wrote: Alright, I think this is the solution: we push Cephiro to the item slot. If he gets frozen, we push syllo (we should have enough to push both). Any remaining pushes will go on Tobon AFTER it is confirmed one or both of Cephiro+syllo is dead (hopefully syllo)
If the freezing power exists still, no matter who we push scum will freeze the player and make our efforts fruitless. Thus ultimately I imagine we'd need to push both players. If we push syllo and then scum freeze syllo, we then have to rely on Cephiro getting to the item, but if he's roleblocked at that point we lose even more pushes. If we force a roleblock on Cephiro then we can still pull him back to safety and push someone else toward the fire.
Anyone who does not push according to this plan at this point needs to have a very good reason for it. If you have questions, ask now. I intend for syllo, Bluelightz, and Tobon to all die today.
We can potentially swap Tobon for someone else like mattchew, prpl, or Wiggles, but I'd much rather push Tobon because Nemesis already started a push on him, and he is just as scummy.
Here goes nothing.
##push Cephiro I think I asked in time, but you pushed anyway. Why are you so extremely convinced of Cephiro's townieness? I'm way in favour of just straight lynching. The only thing we miss out on is an item. So bloody what?
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On April 05 2012 03:03 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 02:56 wherebugsgo wrote: There was a day roleblock on Palmar yesterday; what's to say that they can't use it again?
Or the freeze power? the number of kills last night, unless we have an S.K.
Do you intentionally try not to make any sense whatsoever?
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On April 04 2012 23:09 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 22:59 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Has anybody claimed the kill on Palmar or Shrubbles yet? This is important to me. If you shot one of Palmar/Shrubbles, and haven't claimed yet, please do so. I won't be mad. I promise. Hi guys, I'm mafia fishing for a vigilante so I can shoot him tonight, but I won't be mad. I promise!!! What?
On April 04 2012 23:25 Bluelightz wrote: Nice catch Acro..... ...what? I don't see it. You two are grasping at straws
+ Show Spoiler +On April 05 2012 01:18 Cephiro wrote:Going to filter quotes to try and reduce the wall of text that is going to happen. My 5 scumreads: syllogism, prplhz, cascades, Acrofales, Mattchew+ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 16:35 Acrofales wrote: Good morning. Had a quick glance through the thread and I am quite opposed to Cephiro's plan. I just don't trust the guy. If we believe risk.nuke's claim (and I still do) that means either Cephiro or Syllo is scum. Atm I'm leaning slightly to Syllo, but just plain statistics say we shouldn't bet on Cephiro. Pretty much everybody else has better chances of not being scum, so until Syllo is dead and confirmed red, I am not cooperating with anything Cephiro proposes.
Gonna read the rest of the thread now. I understand it's dark (and full of terrors). I can obviously get behind the bluelightz pulling. I have to get to work, but when I get there I'll read the thread more carefully and decide what to do (probably pull bluelightz). God you are flip-flopping fast. Do you want to know why I find this hilarious? Out of everyone in the game, only the ones that are in the 5 people i suspect to be scum have gone out and made a case on me. Are you actually that afraid of me, or are you trying to make me look bad by trying to make me look like I'm just OMGUSing? + Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 16:53 Acrofales wrote: Let me phrase that a bit better: we have to take into account the very real possibility that Cephiro is scum.
If he's scum and we send him up there he gets: 1. An item 2. To activate whatever dastardly ability he has that requires him to be in the incineration zone (if I let my imagination run wild I can think of quite a few rather nasty ones, such as increase the size of the incineration zone). Because it's dark, we won't even know what he's doing until it's too late.
If he's town and we send him up there we get: 1. An item 2. To fulfill his masterplan of which we do not even know the rewards. Cephiro said that it helps town and probably gets Syllo killed.
While I like the town rewards and could probably get behind a Syllo kill, the rewards for scum are unknown, but probably better. Given the, lets say 40% chance that Cephiro is scum, the risk is just way too high. As said earlier, my plan is way in favour of town. The worst case scenario for town is that I die before we get to use the item, and my death will confirm syllo as scum, so 1:1 trade. Best case scenario, I survive and deliver you 2 scum kills. Or are you actually proposing that after seeing a nullify ability & darkness ability, that I could be some some sort of godlike superscum and get half the town killed by going into the incineration zone? A sacrifical mechanic would be far more likely than that. + Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 16:56 Acrofales wrote: So, Cephiro: will your plan have any other benefits than killing Syllo (which we really don't need your masterplan for) and getting you the item (which I don't really want to do at this point)? Read what I said, I did actually bring this up earlier as well but you clearly chose to ignore it. + Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 19:09 Dirkzor wrote: I think Cephiro's plan suck. Any plan we made yesterday was fucked and it will be the same today. (and the item is not even in the equation as the item suck. Its like a shiny objects that people really can't wait to dig up but it always turn out just be the opener from a soda can.)
I would like people to push Syllo. The fact that scum killed Palmar/Sbrubbles (or one of them) and not syllo is disturbing. Palmar had done shit all so killing him over Syllo makes no sense. I'm assuming Sbrubbles was a town hit becase the only reason I see scum killing Sbrubbles is if Syllo is indeed town. Risk's claim was/i believable even when poorly executed by him.
Mattchew is just a oneliner machine who follows whatever crazy plan anyone cooks up to appear to be helping town. If you haven't read, you will not need to save me out of the incineration area, which means you will be able to use your pulls to insta-kill someone by pulling them all the way down. Why would you push syllo, when you can push me and achieve the same? Or would you rather see syllo have the item? I can understand if you wanted to pull him, by pushing him especially after I've told my plan is just.... retarded. Also, agreed on Mattchew. For the love of god though, please read syllogism's filter and show me that he's been even trying to scumhunt. He hasn't done anything valuable for the town yet.+ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 19:32 Acrofales wrote:Okay, I have read through the thread. The day lasts 48 hours. Why all the rush with pulling Bluelightz? I thought we agreed after yesterday to not spend our PoPs so hastily? I think Bluelightz is almost certainly scum, but I am far more interested in getting the whole Syllo/Cephiro/risk.nuke mess sorted out. Can we wait with the bluelightz pulls until we've figured out a plan for that? I'm still waiting for Cephiro to come up with a better explanation of why his plan benefits town (and as I explain below I am now actually very suspicious of him). Instead of his plan, I propose both Cephiro and Syllo get pulled off the bottom just to be sure. A 1:1 trade is generally good for town and the only chance it's not a 1:1 trade is if risk.nuke was lying, in which case he gets lynched tomorrow. I have gone over Syllo and Cephiro's filter with a comb. Lets start with Cephiro: I find his assertions of why his plan is townie increasingly scummy the more I look at them. He has a LOT of filler asserting that he's town and we should listen to him. Do I need to refer to the OP of jubjub mafia about why this is completely pointless posting? You can't prove your town by asserting it and the increased repetition is just making me suspicious: who are you trying to convince with this? You get in a bitch fight with Syllo, which serves NOBODY. We are all almost certain that one, or both of you are scum and you two squabbling over it is completely useless and just clogs up the thread. On to his reason for not revealing any details of the plan: Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 14:24 Cephiro wrote: If I provide my full role and plan, then it is very likely to backfire. However, if we have enough townies to co-ordinate to do it swiftly, then I will do that if that's an absolute must. It's for the best of town if I do not, and I would claim right after.
Okay, nobody wants the details of HOW it works, just WHAT it does and why that benefits more than just pushing Syllo (or actually, both of you) off the cliff. Your reluctance to say anything other than "it benefits town and will get Syllo dead" is not making me like your plan at all. Next, I don't understand how he is not afraid of the nullify thingy that got Palmar stuck up there and his explanation of why not seems extremely dubious: Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 13:41 Cephiro wrote: Also, what do you others think about the nullify abillity? I have my reasons to believe it is very limited, at most 2-shot, most likely oneshot. If anyone can tell something about queue positions, you should come forth with the information as well, as I cannot see town getting hurt more than having a benefit of it. Pray tell us your "reasons to believe", oh enlightened one! Is it because it's a scum ability and this is a scumslip? He also seems in an incredible rush to get this to happen before people have time to think it through. In fact, the one redeeming quality is that, if he's scum, I would've expected other mafia to get this bandwagon going, but that's too much wifom for me. On to Syllo: yesterday I thought Sbrubbles was more likely to be scum than Syllo, but things have changed. Taken without what seems to be a serious scumslip by Cephiro, I would almost certainly label Syllo scum now that Sbrubbles flipped town. If we ignore, as he asks us to, his timing on the D1 PoPs, he has contributed a grand total of nothing to this thread. Some speculation on BM's roleclaim is the grand total of his scumhunting. Everything else is filler: he shows presence without actually doing anything useful. He has a somewhat useful dialogue with WBG, but it is only about why he isn't scum, no real contribution at all. Additionally, the same accusation of a giant bitchfight with Cephiro can be leveled at him: useless filler to pad his filter. My opinion: we pull both of them off the cliff to ensure no mistakes. A 1:1 trade is good for town and, given their postings, we might even have two mafia here. First, the point about me somewhat constantly saying I am town. I don't see what's wrong with that. I know I am town and I have no reason to hide it either. Would you rather have me type in conditional every single time? There is no point for me to speculate that I could be scum in every message of mine as I know I am town, and you know it too. So you don't want a roleclaim but you still want to know what my ability does? Well, I'll make it simple for you. It gets scum killed.You also blame me for cluttering the thread up with syllo. Sure, that may be slightly true, but if that's the only way I'm going to convince you guys of getting syllo killed, then so be it. I'm here to kill scum, not to play diplomatics. Also I found it hilarious how you use the same arguments on me as syllogism did. You both keep pointing out how I am not afraid of being nullified, and trying to find out why. Why would you try to find out the reason unless you were scum trying to stop me? You couldn't be much more obvious. Especially since you all use the same poor arguments on me. + Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 20:15 syllogism wrote: It doesn't seem possible to even kill ceph today as assuming the nullifying power can be used more than once, scum will just nullify him after we've wasted PoPs on him. Even if they can't do that, he may not be lying about having some sort of power that allows him to switch places in the queue. Look at this gem of a post by syllogism. His only post when he checks the thread is about trying to place suspicion on me. I repeat, he has not and is clearly not going to do anything useful for the town. Is it that hard for you all to see that he hasn't been scumhunting at all? + Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 20:16 cascades wrote: Cephiro you complain about Syllo speculating about mafia powers that might need pop to activate, then you go ahead and speculate that its unlikely there's no mafia framer?
More importantly, you also softclaim that implies syllo is mod confirmed red. You backed out of it after people called you out, since you still need to have powers to get yourself out of incineration somehow. Doesn't excuse the scummy softclaim.
I am really curious about the plan now. I want to hear it. You have to justify better before we help you. There's a chance you scum in our eyes. You've heard the plan and all there is to it. Do you have a reason to believe there is a mafia framer then? Also, you claim that I complained about syllo's speculation about scum powers that may need PoP to activate. This is false however, as I was only asking him questions to specify what he means. Why are you trying to make it look bad for me? + Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 22:20 prplhz wrote:No one is disputing your claim, no one ever did. If you read the OP you'd see that everybody in this game has a role, it's in game mechanic 10; everybody is going to flip "blue" (or green as people actually just flip). You were told repeatedly not to use an ability because it was scum favored and then you go ahead and do it anyway. If you're town this is by far the worst performance I have ever seen from a townie. I'm getting a feeling that you're actually town, you're just not reading the thread, and relying solely on having an ability to confirm that you're town, but none of this matters. After what you did, town has to kill you. Let me restate the very clear case on Bluelightz: - Bluelightz has an ability where he can booby trap random places on the board. This is clearly a scum favored ability, though that has nothing to do with the case on him since role has nothing to do with alignment. Yesterday, I explained to him why it is a scum favored ability and told him not to use it and additionally layabout made it very clear that if Bluelightz used it then Bluelightz died.
- Bluelightz used his ability.
It's that simple. Everybody pull Bluelightz off this board right now. Prp wants to get bluelightz killed even though he thinks that he may very well be town. I do not see why a townie would want to kill another townie, unless it would confirm a scum. However, if bluelightz flips town, it will not give us much of a clue towards who is scum. I'm also starting to get annoyed by how everyone claims Bluelightz ability to be scum favoured. Sure, under the circumstances it might be (due to the darkness ability being used), but a skilled town in normal circumstances should easily be able to use it in their favour. I am in no way defending bluelightz however. In my opinion his play so far has been quite lackluster, and isn't contributing the town enough. But there are many others that are so obvious scum that I see no reason to kill bluelightz over them. + Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 23:05 Acrofales wrote: In addition to being like 90% certainly scum, you have a problem reading conditionals? I state both possible cases. You're either scum, or a townie who might as well be scum for all the help you're giving them. Brb, I'm grabbing my pitchfork (although a torch would be more appropriate, given the circumstances).
While I'm at it, if you are serious about the positions of your bombs, might I point out that position 24 is a COMPLETELY USELESS place to put a bomb, regardless of alignment? Anybody who is on position 24 at the end of the day gets incinerated. All you achieve is that now they (maybe) get blown up, in addition to getting incinerated. Whoop-de-doop. Didn't you say your ability was intended to cost us LESS PoPs to kill people?
Acrofales casting further suspicion on Bluelightz, as if he finds the need to ensure that Blue dies tonight. I would like to point out that anyone that actually concentrates on reading the thread would know that Blue doesn't pick those three positions but are randomly chosen by the mods. Acrofales seems to be content with ignoring this fact and blaming Bluelightz for it. @Cephiro You say "everyone is calling bluelightz ability scumfavored", when I totally did not. I'd like for you to note that. Filter me, if you'd like. Thanks.
On April 05 2012 01:34 wherebugsgo wrote: There is one big thing I disagree with, though.
First of all, Bluelightz's role might not necessarily be scum-favored in itself but definitely his use of it (or his choice to use it at all) is incredibly scummy. Why would town choose to use an ability that places bombs at random locations on the map? It could very well cause multiple people to die unexpectedly because they start the day on a trapped position, or are moved into a trapped position by scum.
As town you want to facilitate order and hunt scum in an organized way, because this game is about a race against the clock. The mafia need to kill us faster than we can find and kill them. Bluelightz used his role in a way that would hamper our effort and accelerate the effort of mafia, since his role causes disruption and death at random. If I were town and I had his role there would be no way I would ever use it.
I don't know if we'll be able to control who dies today, because the bomb could have been placed on a square with a townie (or who knows, TWO townies) who will not get moved. wow wbg just scumslipped check out my bolded if i were town... sure, there is an and, but that is funny ass word choice
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I really feel like that is a slip
my pull is on someone I know is either town or godfather, basically, if there even is one
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On April 05 2012 03:09 Bill Murray wrote: ##pull snarfs What?
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On April 05 2012 03:11 Bill Murray wrote: my pull is on someone I know is either town or godfather, basically, if there even is one Why pull someone who's town?
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On April 05 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 03:05 wherebugsgo wrote: Alright, I think this is the solution: we push Cephiro to the item slot. If he gets frozen, we push syllo (we should have enough to push both). Any remaining pushes will go on Tobon AFTER it is confirmed one or both of Cephiro+syllo is dead (hopefully syllo)
If the freezing power exists still, no matter who we push scum will freeze the player and make our efforts fruitless. Thus ultimately I imagine we'd need to push both players. If we push syllo and then scum freeze syllo, we then have to rely on Cephiro getting to the item, but if he's roleblocked at that point we lose even more pushes. If we force a roleblock on Cephiro then we can still pull him back to safety and push someone else toward the fire.
Anyone who does not push according to this plan at this point needs to have a very good reason for it. If you have questions, ask now. I intend for syllo, Bluelightz, and Tobon to all die today.
We can potentially swap Tobon for someone else like mattchew, prpl, or Wiggles, but I'd much rather push Tobon because Nemesis already started a push on him, and he is just as scummy.
Here goes nothing.
##push Cephiro I think I asked in time, but you pushed anyway. Why are you so extremely convinced of Cephiro's townieness? I'm way in favour of just straight lynching. The only thing we miss out on is an item. So bloody what?
I'm taking a risk, a potentially stupid one, but a risk nonetheless.
I am still open to pushing syllo rather than Cephiro and would support that idea. However if syllo is frozen we'll have to end up pushing Cephiro anyway.
I believe Cephiro is far more likely to be town than scum, and because of that I'm actually considering that it might be a better idea just to push him instead of pushing syllo.
Let's go over the 4 possible scenarios:
1. Cephiro is town and syllo scum. Then Cephiro should be telling the truth and we should probably push him because him lying would fuck us.
2. Cephiro is scum and syllo town. Pushing Cephiro to the last spot would allow us to kill him, so we should be pushing him.
3. Cephiro and syllo both scum: doesn't really matter who we push, does it?
4. Cephiro and syllo both town: we should probably be killing risk in this case, (who is notably still missing -_- But honestly I wouldn't put it past him, he's god awful as town) but pushing Cephiro is still a good idea.
In every case pushing Cephiro is beneficial to us.
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On April 05 2012 02:46 wherebugsgo wrote: What I can't reconcile though is that rarely are scum so in-your-face as Cephiro is, and if they are they usually cause a lot of disruption. Cephiro doesn't seem to be trolling us or trying to cause disruption, and it's no secret there is a scum between him, syllo, and risk. In addition he has pointed out a couple of things that I don't think scum would have pointed out. It's true that he could be scum, and if he is, he's been playing very well so far.
The thing though is, IF he's scum, this is a very risky proposition for him, because it ensures he dies after syllo flips town. You agree with that? Now my question is, why would scum put themselves at such great risk just to trade 1 for 1 with someone else?
Worst IMO is that two of them die and flip town.
What's stopping me from pushing Cephiro is that the possibility of him having a scum role that benefits from this still exists. Based on the knowledge we have (which isn't much) it is a better proposition to simply straight up kill syllo, because we have no clue what pushing Cephiro will do. however the pushing of syllo relies on the assumption that syllo is scum, which makes Cephiro far more likely to be town. So in that case we should consider Cephiro is actually telling the truth and push him anyway. in other words, since the basic assumption is the same, it may be better to just push Cephiro after all. Okay, barring some extremely strange circumstance in which risk's roleclaim and the red traffic light are NOT the police car toy from DFM1, Cephiro is confirmed scum if Syllo flips town in any case and I don't think anybody is opposed to killing Syllo here and now. So I don't see how this plan by a scumbag is at all risky.
So you actually wifom'd the wifom out of that in the subsequent part. Did you actually read that? I will condense the second part of your post for you:
1. Cephiro might be scum, which is a reason not to push him and just kill Syllo (okay so far) 2. However, that relies on the assumption that Syllo is scum (err, okay. I disagree. It will confirm him as scum. I think there's probably about 60-70% chance of him being scum at this point) 3. In which case Cephiro is town (errrmmm, okay, probably. You feeling the wifom yet? I am fairly certain that a smart guy would know that I would know that he would put the wine in front of me) 4. BUT THEN Cephiro is telling the TRUTH and he's town (lol, I am seeing Inigo Montoya's pokerface right now) 5. In which case we should comply with his plan (LOOK BEHIND YOU, A three-headed monkey! /switchcups)
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@ Acro: I am not OMGUSing, you are just claiming that I am. I have provided fair reasoning for every single one of my suspects except you so far, and I am going to provide that analysis on you as well.
" if scum can stop you, they will stop you, so you might as well tell us all the effects of your plan (but leave out the details of how, if that will stop scum from interfering)."
This is what you say. I have told everything I can which doesn't give the scum enough idea how to counter-measure my power. You keep asking me for everything, but then you keep pointing out to leaving out the details if it means that scum can't interfere. This is the point you constantly keep bringing up, you want to know DETAILS about my plan. I have told everything I will tell, deal with it. If there was a mason possibility, I'd gladly explain the full extent of my plan to certain people via PM, but unfortunately that's not possible.
If your basis on not pushing me to the flames is that I could be scum with a superpower that extends the flames (that would still leave me there, wouldn't it?), then you're on thin ice. How about you start thinking rationally and don't do stuff because your scared of something that is extremely unlikely. How about you don't PoP at all today because someone could have an ability that kills you when touched?
We could pull to kill syllogism, yes, and I would be fine with that too. My plan however is much more beneficial for the town regarding a similar amount of PoPs (unless syllo happens to be right at the bottom again, and I am really far from the flames).
My scum reads are also not "Everyone who is against my plan = scum". If you paid more attention to my posts, you would know that I have provided fair analysis based on other stuff than opposing my plan, you're just outright lying here to make me look bad.
You ask me to make cases on other people than syllo. And I have, but you choose to ignore them and claim there aren't any. That's just pathetic.
As for my ability, I can kill any scum I want, but the amount depends on the circumstances. Happy?
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you claim I scumslipped, but I think you just did BM rofl
That is the worst case of stretching I have ever seen.
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like wtf, push someone you have a GREEN read on? Good god, what are you on?
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On April 05 2012 03:15 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote:On April 05 2012 03:05 wherebugsgo wrote: Alright, I think this is the solution: we push Cephiro to the item slot. If he gets frozen, we push syllo (we should have enough to push both). Any remaining pushes will go on Tobon AFTER it is confirmed one or both of Cephiro+syllo is dead (hopefully syllo)
If the freezing power exists still, no matter who we push scum will freeze the player and make our efforts fruitless. Thus ultimately I imagine we'd need to push both players. If we push syllo and then scum freeze syllo, we then have to rely on Cephiro getting to the item, but if he's roleblocked at that point we lose even more pushes. If we force a roleblock on Cephiro then we can still pull him back to safety and push someone else toward the fire.
Anyone who does not push according to this plan at this point needs to have a very good reason for it. If you have questions, ask now. I intend for syllo, Bluelightz, and Tobon to all die today.
We can potentially swap Tobon for someone else like mattchew, prpl, or Wiggles, but I'd much rather push Tobon because Nemesis already started a push on him, and he is just as scummy.
Here goes nothing.
##push Cephiro I think I asked in time, but you pushed anyway. Why are you so extremely convinced of Cephiro's townieness? I'm way in favour of just straight lynching. The only thing we miss out on is an item. So bloody what? I'm taking a risk, a potentially stupid one, but a risk nonetheless. I am still open to pushing syllo rather than Cephiro and would support that idea. However if syllo is frozen we'll have to end up pushing Cephiro anyway. I believe Cephiro is far more likely to be town than scum, and because of that I'm actually considering that it might be a better idea just to push him instead of pushing syllo. Let's go over the 4 possible scenarios: 1. Cephiro is town and syllo scum. Then Cephiro should be telling the truth and we should probably push him because him lying would fuck us. 2. Cephiro is scum and syllo town. Pushing Cephiro to the last spot would allow us to kill him, so we should be pushing him. 3. Cephiro and syllo both scum: doesn't really matter who we push, does it? 4. Cephiro and syllo both town: we should probably be killing risk in this case, (who is notably still missing -_- But honestly I wouldn't put it past him, he's god awful as town) but pushing Cephiro is still a good idea. In every case pushing Cephiro is beneficial to us.
You're assuming Cephiro has no ability that requires him to be in the danger zone. How are you so sure about that in cases 2 and 3 (I agree that 4 is unlikely) Cephiro won't do something wicked?
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On April 05 2012 03:11 Bill Murray wrote: I really feel like that is a slip
my pull is on someone I know is either town or godfather, basically, if there even is one
Are you fucking serious. You waste your PoPs based on wbg using a conditional phrase, and you pull someone that you think are town, when it could be used to kill someone you think is scum.
Either you are fucking retarded... actually, that's a retarded move regardless if you are town or scum. Sorry for the insult but that's my honest opinion.
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On April 05 2012 03:15 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 02:46 wherebugsgo wrote: What I can't reconcile though is that rarely are scum so in-your-face as Cephiro is, and if they are they usually cause a lot of disruption. Cephiro doesn't seem to be trolling us or trying to cause disruption, and it's no secret there is a scum between him, syllo, and risk. In addition he has pointed out a couple of things that I don't think scum would have pointed out. It's true that he could be scum, and if he is, he's been playing very well so far.
The thing though is, IF he's scum, this is a very risky proposition for him, because it ensures he dies after syllo flips town. You agree with that? Now my question is, why would scum put themselves at such great risk just to trade 1 for 1 with someone else?
Worst IMO is that two of them die and flip town.
What's stopping me from pushing Cephiro is that the possibility of him having a scum role that benefits from this still exists. Based on the knowledge we have (which isn't much) it is a better proposition to simply straight up kill syllo, because we have no clue what pushing Cephiro will do. however the pushing of syllo relies on the assumption that syllo is scum, which makes Cephiro far more likely to be town. So in that case we should consider Cephiro is actually telling the truth and push him anyway. in other words, since the basic assumption is the same, it may be better to just push Cephiro after all. Okay, barring some extremely strange circumstance in which risk's roleclaim and the red traffic light are NOT the police car toy from DFM1, Cephiro is confirmed scum if Syllo flips town in any case and I don't think anybody is opposed to killing Syllo here and now. So I don't see how this plan by a scumbag is at all risky. So you actually wifom'd the wifom out of that in the subsequent part. Did you actually read that? I will condense the second part of your post for you: 1. Cephiro might be scum, which is a reason not to push him and just kill Syllo (okay so far) 2. However, that relies on the assumption that Syllo is scum (err, okay. I disagree. It will confirm him as scum. I think there's probably about 60-70% chance of him being scum at this point) 3. In which case Cephiro is town (errrmmm, okay, probably. You feeling the wifom yet? I am fairly certain that a smart guy would know that I would know that he would put the wine in front of me) 4. BUT THEN Cephiro is telling the TRUTH and he's town (lol, I am seeing Inigo Montoya's pokerface right now) 5. In which case we should comply with his plan (LOOK BEHIND YOU, A three-headed monkey! /switchcups)
It's not WIFOM at all unless you think a town Cephiro would be lying to us.
Pushing Cephiro is no-lose because if he's scum then we need to push him, and if he's town he wouldn't lie about us having to push him
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Okay, BillMurray's statements on this page are beyond retarded. I have nothing else to say. How are stating hypotheticals scumslips? How is MrWiggles' rolefishing beyond your grasp? /ignore BillMurray.
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EBWOP: WTF are billmurray's pops about???? /cryinacorner
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On April 05 2012 03:19 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 03:15 wherebugsgo wrote:On April 05 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote:On April 05 2012 03:05 wherebugsgo wrote: Alright, I think this is the solution: we push Cephiro to the item slot. If he gets frozen, we push syllo (we should have enough to push both). Any remaining pushes will go on Tobon AFTER it is confirmed one or both of Cephiro+syllo is dead (hopefully syllo)
If the freezing power exists still, no matter who we push scum will freeze the player and make our efforts fruitless. Thus ultimately I imagine we'd need to push both players. If we push syllo and then scum freeze syllo, we then have to rely on Cephiro getting to the item, but if he's roleblocked at that point we lose even more pushes. If we force a roleblock on Cephiro then we can still pull him back to safety and push someone else toward the fire.
Anyone who does not push according to this plan at this point needs to have a very good reason for it. If you have questions, ask now. I intend for syllo, Bluelightz, and Tobon to all die today.
We can potentially swap Tobon for someone else like mattchew, prpl, or Wiggles, but I'd much rather push Tobon because Nemesis already started a push on him, and he is just as scummy.
Here goes nothing.
##push Cephiro I think I asked in time, but you pushed anyway. Why are you so extremely convinced of Cephiro's townieness? I'm way in favour of just straight lynching. The only thing we miss out on is an item. So bloody what? I'm taking a risk, a potentially stupid one, but a risk nonetheless. I am still open to pushing syllo rather than Cephiro and would support that idea. However if syllo is frozen we'll have to end up pushing Cephiro anyway. I believe Cephiro is far more likely to be town than scum, and because of that I'm actually considering that it might be a better idea just to push him instead of pushing syllo. Let's go over the 4 possible scenarios: 1. Cephiro is town and syllo scum. Then Cephiro should be telling the truth and we should probably push him because him lying would fuck us. 2. Cephiro is scum and syllo town. Pushing Cephiro to the last spot would allow us to kill him, so we should be pushing him. 3. Cephiro and syllo both scum: doesn't really matter who we push, does it? 4. Cephiro and syllo both town: we should probably be killing risk in this case, (who is notably still missing -_- But honestly I wouldn't put it past him, he's god awful as town) but pushing Cephiro is still a good idea. In every case pushing Cephiro is beneficial to us. You're assuming Cephiro has no ability that requires him to be in the danger zone. How are you so sure about that in cases 2 and 3 (I agree that 4 is unlikely) Cephiro won't do something wicked?
You could make that argument about anyone who is scum, but then how would we actually kill them?
Remember that if Cephiro could do something bad by getting to that zone we'd probably have to deal with it somehow anyway, at some point in the game. He even said he'd be fine with pushing syllo instead.
Occam's razor dictates we should just push him, because in all of the circumstances it's the simplest answer.
Our only problem would be nullfication, but that would happen even if we pushed syllo instead, I'd bet.
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Also instead of pushing Tobon, I'd be completely fine with pushing BM instead. He's been on Mattchew-level of inactvity and very well could be scum over Tobon. As Tobon has only one game under his belt it could very well be that his lack of decisiveness is simply due to his newness. This is of course entirely impossible to prove without actually killing the guy, but BM using his PoPs on myself and Snarfs is inexcusable.
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