2024 GSL Code S Season 2

RO16 Group A Preview: Maru, TY, Creator, SHIN

Thursday, May 02 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Mizenhauer & Wax

The new Code S Season begins in the shadow of Maru's eighth championship, a number that makes us wonder what the GSL even stands for anymore. The most storied StarCraft II competition in the world? Maru's personal playground? A faded relic of the past?

Regardless of what SC2 might mean to you personally, it's still the best place to see entertaining, top-level StarCraft II on a weekly basis. It begins with a mix of four contrasting competitors in Group A.



Initial Match #1: Maru vs TY

Gather around, it's time for the formulaic Maru group stage preview on TL.net! Here, we'll tell you how he's the ridiculous favorite to advance while desperately trying to drum up a narrative that makes his situation seem at least a little bit perilous.

This time, the straw we're grasping onto is the fact that Maru began last season rather poorly, struggling to get by RO16 opponents soO and SHIN—two players who were enormously outmatched on paper. Neither Zerg needed to rely on all-ins or innovative strategies to take a map off Maru, and they looked shockingly competent in straight-up macro games against the greatest GSL player ever. This was followed by an even shakier showing in the RO8 where Maru finished second place in his group with a 4-3 map record.

However, none of this really mattered in the end, as playoff-mode Maru crushed Cure (3-0) and herO (4-1) to win his eighth Code S title. Ultimately, we all know Maru's getting out of this group and probably winning this entire tournament, but we can at least hope his RO16 opponents will once again put up more than nominal resistance.

A long time ago, we could have said TY was exactly the player to give Maru some pause, as he was the only player to go even against a prime Maru in the GSL. However, post-military TY has walked a very peculiar path, and fortunately for Maru, it hasn't been one headed toward SC2 championship contention.

TY declared soon after his return that he would be dividing time between StarCraft II and Brood War, but you wouldn't have been blamed for suspecting he had mostly given up on SC2 over the last 8 months. He missed out on the last two seasons of Code S and was generally terrible for Afreeca in the WTL, yet brought his Brood War skills up to the level where he could qualify for the recent ASL17 tournament (TY lost in the first round, but did take a game off Jaedong).

Thus, it was a bit of a mystery when TY requalified for this season of Code S out of nowhere, especially since this season's qualifiers were more competitive than the two previous seasons where he missed the cut. Is it just a sign that the modern Code S qualifiers are still so soft that semi-retired players can make a qualifying run, as other players such as sOs and INnoVation have shown us in the past? Or is it a sign that TY is gearing up for a final, 100% effort run with the $1m Esports World Cup as the goal?

TY's recent SC2 performances may not inspire confidence, but fans would certainly hope the latter is the case. After all, it would be wonderful to wax poetic about how this opening match is a rivalry rekindled, with Maru once again coming face to face with his deadliest domestic foe. But the realistic assessment of this match is that it should be one of the most one-sided bouts we'll see this season. Maru already crushed TY 2-0 the last time they faced off in 2023's Season 2, and his decision to pick TY first in the group selections means he's 100% confident he's going to do exactly the same thing. Aligulac gives TY a 8.4% chance of emerging victorious—a number which seems exceedingly generous.

Initial Match #2: Creator vs SHIN

The return of the Code S group draft has shown Maru's skill at assembling easy groups for himself hasn't gone anywhere, because this next match looks to be an even duel between players who don't project to threaten Maru or any other real title contenders.

Sure, SHIN gave us a pleasant surprise last season by taking a game off Maru, and very nearly scoring the 2-1 upset before blowing the deciding game through a series of errors. But, in the big picture, that really was the high point for SHIN in the last couple of months. He was bounced from the RO8 after suffering two 0-2 losses to Stats, and overall, he's put up a mere 20-19 match record (51-49 map score) since his last Code S RO16 group (which is heavily boosted by wins against amateur players in the lower rounds of online tourneys). It's an unfortunate turn for a player who has had several breakthrough moments in his career—including a RO8 run at the latest IEM Katowice—but just seems incapable of stringing together a sustained run of high-level performances in tournaments.

Still, at least SHIN's recent track record is better than that of Creator. It's safe to say that the afterglow of his Code S finals run in 2022 has fully faded by now, and though he's remained a much more credible competitor than in the past, there's no mistaking the current Creator for someone who's going to factor into the championship picture.

The thing going for Creator here is that PvZ is the match-up where he most often punches above his weight class (the biggest source of hope for Creator optimists), and it's not uncommon to see him take series off of players like Dark or Solar in various online competitions. In fact, he actually beat SHIN himself twice in the online qualifiers for this very tournament (winning 2-0 both times), and it's no surprise that Creator picked SHIN as his opponent during the group selection. Even though SHIN has had a higher profile than Creator in 2024, he only has a 53.54% chance of winning according to Aligulac, which is basically a coinflip at this level.

Subsequent matches and predictions

With Maru pegged for one of the advancing spots, this group comes down to who will move on to the RO8 alongside him.

TY was easily written off against Maru, but you have to at least give him a puncher's chance at advancing in second place. He was also a heavy underdog back in 2023's Season 2, being only a few months returned from the military at the time. However, TY managed to pull off two enormous upsets against Bunny and Classic, forcing his opponents into unusual scenarios and emerging victorious amid the chaos. While everyone including TY himself seemed to acknowledge that this was a huge outlier result given TY's normal level of play, it was exactly the kind of 'class is eternal' moment we love to talk about on TL.net

Incredible outlier scenarios aside, the second RO8 spot will likely be contested between Creator and SHIN. As mentioned in their head-to-head preview, Aligulac sees SHIN as a slight favorite, and thus gives him a marginally better chance at advancing. However, with Creator having beaten SHIN twice in the qualifier and feeling confident enough to pick him during the group selections, the TL.net prediction will go to the Club NV player.

Maru 2-0 TY
SHIN 2-1 Creator
Maru 2-0 SHIN
Creator 2-0 TY
Creator 2-1 SHIN

Maru and Creator to advance