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Alright, I'm going to post my analysis of Phagga's death so we can get it over with, cause it's inevidedable that it will be talked about. I will eventually get to my response on the Veli Nova debate, but I'm not sure yet I need to re-read over filters and the discussion. I would like to hear Seviro's opinions he has had some good analysis in the past. Onto Phagga:
Phagga:
Day 1:
Policy: Lynch everyday
Suspicions:
Sbrubbles, Eleanthas, FirmTofu, Koritora
Vote:
Firmtofu
My Analysis:
As you can see, almost everyone Phagga was suspicious of Day 1 was wrong and is now confirmed townie. He bandwagoned because of fear of a no lynch day 1. Had a slight suspicion against Nova early but never brought it up afterwards. Overall not very telling of why mafia would want to kill him, bandwagoning bad town lynches, suspicious of townies.
Night 1
The list:
Makes an analysis list of everyone who voted FirmTofu. Here is a quick explanation:
FoS: Eleanthas
Seems town: Janaan, Mementoss
Null: Seviro, Gossemerr
Suspicious: Infern0, Cosine
DT Check:
Koritora, Eleanthas, Cosine
My analysis
The mafia didn't seem too concerned with his posting during the night. This is probably because his main target who he pressured was Eleanthas, who we now know is town. His suspicious are Infern0 and cosine, this could mean that they are also town, but not for sure, just as mafia wasn't threatened by this. Or it could just be phagga wasn't number 1 on their list at that point. As nova was most active, and Sbrubbles was a threat? (only went for NT) WIFOM but still worth nothing.
Day 2:
Replies to Seviros case vs Nova:
Disregards a portion of it to WIFOM. Then says some arguments in it our good, but doesn't really push back against Nova terra, seems like a soft defense on Nova.
Replies to Mementoss Phagga, Nova Connection:
Explains why he thinks DT lists are a good way of keeping town active. States looking into mafia kills is a waste of time (the irony of me doing this on his post -_-) Explains that he didn't include Nova on his list because he guarenteed 1-2 people who voted firmtofu were probably scum.
Votes: Infern0 than changes to Eleanthas, who flips town
Lynch Lurkers Post:
Explains the reasoning behind lynching lurkers and why it can only benefit town. Counters Gossemerrs point on lynching lurkers being a waste of time. "tldr; lynch lurker, better for town, less risk."
Makes this lurker list:
Active Players (6):
- Gossemerr
- Mementoss
- Nova_Terra
- Seviro
- Janaan
- phagga
Somehow active but barely contributing (1):
- Eleanthas
lurking like there is no tomorrow (3):
- cosine
- koritora
- InfernOokami7
Counters Gossemerrs argument:
On March 15 2012 19:20 phagga wrote:Sorry, forgot to answer to the second part of your post: Show nested quote +On March 15 2012 08:27 Gossemerr wrote:
Moving on, there is a fishy link between Janaan, Phagga, and Nova_Terra. Nova's behavior has already been discussed so not going to bring that up here, but Phagga has not really has yet to been focused. He /she has yet to really offer any analysis except one post a few hours after the day 2 post, in which he / she focuses only on the people who voted for FirmTofu1, and doing so dismisses Janaan rather easily as town.2 While on the issue of voting, he constantly wants to talk about the people who are lurking, but there is realy nothing to talk about considering that they are lurking..3 Seems scummy to me to keep the town going in circles and wasting hours of actual analysis. Of course the lurkers could be mafia, but really nothing new here. Janaan also wants to lynch the lurkers, and easily agrees with Phagga.
My money is on Janaan right now unless something else comes up. He is saying just enough to get by, without saying anything really at all.4
##Vote: Janaan I'm a "he", just for the record. 1 Right, and you analyzed everyone in the game. Oh wait, you did not, the above paragraph is the only analysis you have done so far. So, what exactly is wrong with me analyzing "only" 6 of 10 people? 2 I never said he was town. I stated that there is 1-2 scum in the group of FirmTofu voters, which means there is also 1-2 scum in the group of non-FirmTofu voters. And I can't believe you bring this up again after Nova_Terra and I both explained this very point to Mementoss. 3 If noone is talking about the lurkers, they will be forgotten and get by with it. It has happened in other games, it can happen here. 4 And you said so much more, right? Let's see... You - call cosine suspicious with a daring argument- have disagreed that Eleanthas looks scummy (without giving a reason)- in the same post agreed that FirmTofu looks scummy, reasoning that you wanted to make the same case as Mementoss (but never presented one) - call out Janaan for having a "weird timing"- try to make up a connection between me, Janaan and Nova_Terra And you think you have contributed more than Janaan? I mean, he is lacking content too, but you are definitely the wrong one to call him out on that. You are desperately looking for arguments to connect the three of us when there is nothing to connect the three of us. I could, with the very arguments you used, claim that you and Eleanthas have a secret connection. Actually, that would even make sense, because you are both halflurking and barely contributing. What do you say about that?
^^First to mention Eleanthas Gossemerr connection, in which Nova fleshes out later. Later states he didn't want this "connection" theory to lead towards a lynch case. It does, and he switches his vote towards majority Eleanthas who flips town.
My Analysis:
Pressures against Gossemerr, votes Eleanthas who is town. Wants to lynch lurkers/semi lurkers. Maybe this means that mafia are lurking or active, hard to tell at this point because they didn't kill him until the night after.
Night 2:
On March 16 2012 20:27 phagga wrote:Ok, I just want to make this perfectly clear: When I "hinted" at a connection between Eleanthas and Gossemerr, I made it to provoke a reaction of the two, not because i seriously believed there was one. About Nova_Terra and me: Yes, I do agree with some stuff Nova_Terra wrote, but not with all. No, I do not trust him. I don't trust anyone in this game so far. Yes, we can find connections between people and link mafias together, but for that to work we first need to find mafia, so this should be our top priority. And no, I will not blindly lynch someone only because he agreed at several points with scum. These possible links we have in the thread so far are rather weak. It is possible they exist, but it is also very possible they don't. I also never intended to push a lynch on Gossemerr today, I really wanted to get rid of a lurker (which we did with Eleanthas, although he was not one of the heavy ones). I feel Nova_Terra is an extremely eager Town who jumps to conclusion a little bit too fast. I currently doubt that he is scum, solely because I think scum would not behave that offensively. On the other side, it could be on purpose, and you see I'm going all WIFOM now, so I'll drop. I don't trust him, but some things he said made sense for me. Gossemerr: Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 16:03 Gossemerr wrote:
Okay two peeps did not vote - either going to be replaced or killed. I'm guessing that if they were scum they would be participating, well at least vote. I have to say that I'm pretty confident that both are not mafia - so that means probably 2 people whom are actually contributing to the discussion are indeed mafia. Kinda adding to that, so far we have mislynched two town that were lurkers. While it is not that big of deal since they didn't help much, our numbers are dropping fast. This is wrong. Two people stopped playing completely, either because they lost interest or something in real life keeps them busy. This does NOT tell us anything about their alignement. They could be mafia, vanilla townies or blues, who knows. (Or are you seriously implying that after (for example) someone from my family had a heavy accident, I would be more inclined to play on in this game if I was mafia than if I was town? In such a situation, this game here is irrelevant, no matter what my alignement is). Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 16:03 Gossemerr wrote:
Too me this is really not a defence, just attacks me for my lack of analysis. I never said I was doing more, I never said I was not a hypocrite. But the fact that I didn't really contribute a ton of analysis untill that post does not invalidate my post. you are in a game where people try to find out the motives of others by reading, analyzing and judging their posts. What do you think is going to happen when you are a hypocrite in such a game? Yes, you get a scummy label really fast. Also, if you are not contributing, people will assume you try to hide something, which agains means you get a scummy label. Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 16:03 Gossemerr wrote:
How in the world could understanding how the mafia are thinking be bad for us town? If we can accurately figure out why the mafia killed whom they did we can link it back to the individuals involved. Its a integral part of the analysis. If we just ignored all of the night phases and focused only on the outcomes of lynches that would be terrible. In fact that would be what the scum would want from us - to effectively lose half of the game's information. To not worry about their motives and to fight about the mis-lynches. I agree that the staight up kills can be misleading, but thats where the ANALYSIS comes in. I am going to do this just once, and I hope we can burry this afterwards. So what are the possible reasons sbrubbles was killed? - Nova_Terra is scum, he felt the heat and mafia decided to get rid of sbrubbles - Nova_Terra is town, mafia wants to mess with us and decided to get rid of one of Nova_Terras attackers, sbrubbles - Sbrubbles was half-lurking, and since mafia knows he is town, they fear he might be a blue. - Or it was something completely different that I can not think up right now. So we have now 3 options with completely different motivations. I have my opinions about this too, and I think it was the third option (because scum normally tries to kill of blues as fast as possible). But we can not know for sure. If we want to know more, we lynch Nova_Terra next, but if he is town, that was a blatant mislynch and puts us in a far worse position. And even then, we still will not know if they killed bubbles because he was blue or because they wanted to mess with us. And I haven't even started what it means if Nova_Terra would get killed tonight by mafia. Also, how are you gonna analyze the motives of scum if you do not even know who they are? You do not know for sure who is scum, so you can only try to analyze posts from people you think are scum, and if they are not, you'll just produce bad results. Perhaps if we lynched a scum, you can go back through is filter and look for hints for the nightkills, but until then, it's all WIFOM. This is so much WIFOM that it is not worth wasting time on it. And as you are already quite busy (as you wrote earlier), it would be better if you concentrated on finding scum through analysis of posts. Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 16:03 Gossemerr wrote:
Also, I guess my suspicion that Ele wasn't any more scummy than others was right.. But you voted him anyway, so what?
^^Wants WIFOM to stop, says lurkers motives has no connection to their alignment, connections are useless until we find a scum. States he specifically does not trust Nova. Though seems more suspicious of Gossemerr, disagrees with most of what he says, and questions his voting patterns at the end.
Last post before the night just states we still have blues and the town can still win this.
Overall Analysis:
I think the first cycle doesn't have much to do with his death because most flipped green/ he didn't get hit that night. So onto the second cycle. Brings up the Ele/Goss connection, disagrees with Goss pretty hard. Seems less agreeable with Nova than early game states he doesn't trust him. Usually mafia seem to hit people that they find a threat, so even though its WIFOM discussion mafia actions in my opinion doesn't hurt. At this point looking at the reasons Phagga was killed, I am pretty sure that either Nova_Terra or Gossemerr is scum. But NOT both.
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EBWOP: The above is NOT a full case, its just getting the Why did Phagga get hit? Analysis out of the way. I think the information I stated above can be used to supplement a case, but at this point I think we need more evidence than the above to make the Lynch as we desperatly need it.
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@ Velinath
You're welcome, and i'm glad we got some information out of it.
I am slightly less suspicious than i was about Gosse, due to the Ele flip, but at this point i am really not sure who to vote.
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On March 18 2012 00:43 Nova_Terra wrote:
@ Velinath
You're welcome, and i'm glad we got some information out of it.
I am slightly less suspicious than i was about Gosse, due to the Ele flip, but at this point i am really not sure who to vote.
I think you missed the context of the post, specifically the part where I called your "case" yesterday bad and only serving the purpose of distracting town.
Go make a real case. I still think you're probably scum. Prove me wrong by actually filtering someone and analyzing - until you do that I have no reason to begin to trust you
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No, i missed nothing from the post, and could have easily made sense. and it didnt distract the town, as we were already on that idea, and i at least got us all to rally and try for a good vote.
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EBWOP: and my *case* could have etc.
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No, your case had no support and was based on weak relationships (or non-relationships, if you'd like to look at it that way) between three different players, two of which you can't really analyze in the way that you did because they lurked for insane amounts of time. It made no sense, looking from a logical perspective. You rallied votes to a townie, and I believe you did so intentionally.
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It was supported by their filters and even though it was based off of relationships i feel that it did bring up some good points. and it did make sense looking from a logical perspective. It was faulty in that i had confirmation bias and was sure i was right, and therefore read into it too hard.
I have been going through filters for the past couple hours and am having trouble attempting to make a case, especially with 2 lurkers that we cant really vote as they are gonna be replaced.
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Your case would have been stronger if you had dropped the relationship angle and put more effort into post analysis. When you say it was based off of filters, I believe a more correct wording would be "barely based off of filters". You spent your time analyzing what you admitted were very small filters: "Ele and Gossemerr had been semi lurking, posting barely any content. InfernO is a hardcore lurker."
You then led the mislynch which essentially made your entire case completely worthless and blows any "relationship analysis" completely out of the water. Waste of town time, and focusing town energy away from scumhunting.
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@ Janaan:
I didn't say to only use WIFOM. Let me clear this up. After a night kill we can look back through the filters and enumerate possible reasons that said person was murdered. I don't see how trying to understand the motives of the scum, coupled with post-based arguements is bad idea.
To your other point, how exactly am I getting people to do my dirty work? I didn't really ask any questions. I made an argument, which I thought was logical, and it was not well received.
Also, pretty much all of your current in game analysis has been to call people out for WIFOM seemingly just to discredit them, or as said by others, to get other people to answer your questions.
SO, Janaan will you please tell us what your TOP TWO scum suspects are at the current moment? Thanks
Also at the Vel vs. Nova case:
I agree with basically all of Vels points; however, I kinda of feel like Nova is just playing badly. He just seems emotional and may not be thinking clearly all the time. He was very wrong with the Ele thing, but so were others. His case was pretty weak too, so its not like he was able to convice everyone to vote for Ele when we should not have been. I am no hypocrite here, I voted for Ele, but mainly because he was lurker soooo hard, and didn't even try to defend himself.
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ebwop:
Forgot to talk about the conclusion of mem's analysis:
I don't really know what to say here, me a Phagga definitely disagreed, but I don't see how I could be scum.
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On March 18 2012 03:27 Gossemerr wrote:
Also at the Vel vs. Nova case:
I agree with basically all of Vels points; however, I kinda of feel like Nova is just playing badly. He just seems emotional and may not be thinking clearly all the time. He was very wrong with the Ele thing, but so were others. His case was pretty weak too, so its not like he was able to convice everyone to vote for Ele when we should not have been. I am no hypocrite here, I voted for Ele, but mainly because he was lurker soooo hard, and didn't even try to defend himself.
How do scumtells indicate bad play instead of scum?
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On March 18 2012 03:30 Gossemerr wrote:
ebwop:
Forgot to talk about the conclusion of mem's analysis:
I don't really know what to say here, me a Phagga definitely disagreed, but I don't see how I could be scum.
I said either you or Nova was scum, not both. Im not convinced on which one yet tho. Gotta re-read
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On March 18 2012 03:27 Gossemerr wrote:
@ Janaan:
I didn't say to only use WIFOM. Let me clear this up. After a night kill we can look back through the filters and enumerate possible reasons that said person was murdered. I don't see how trying to understand the motives of the scum, coupled with post-based arguements is bad idea. 1.
To your other point, how exactly am I getting people to do my dirty work? I didn't really ask any questions. I made an argument, which I thought was logical, and it was not well received. 2.
Also, pretty much all of your current in game analysis has been to call people out for WIFOM seemingly just to discredit them, or as said by others, to get other people to answer your questions. 3.
SO, Janaan will you please tell us what your TOP TWO scum suspects are at the current moment? Thanks
Also at the Vel vs. Nova case:
I agree with basically all of Vels points; however, I kinda of feel like Nova is just playing badly. He just seems emotional and may not be thinking clearly all the time. He was very wrong with the Ele thing, but so were others. His case was pretty weak too, so its not like he was able to convice everyone to vote for Ele when we should not have been. I am no hypocrite here, I voted for Ele, but mainly because he was lurker soooo hard, and didn't even try to defend himself.
1. Ok, maybe I misunderstood what you were saying. I still don't like using WIFOM to create cases, but if that's not what you're trying to do, then good.
2. My point was that you barely mentioned me in the post I quoted, then tacked on to the end that you found me suspicious and then left, saying people should pay more attention to me, which you yourself have not done. That's all.
3. I'm not trying to "discredit" people, I just don't want to take the risk of a lynch based off of bad logic. So I point it out when I see it. I don't know why you have such a big problem with that.
My top two scum suspects:
I definitely think that it's possible that Nova is scum. It's also possible that he's just playing bad, but sometimes, if a player looks like a scum, and smells like a scum, he just might be a scum.
I still think that Koritora looked scummy. If a replacement comes in, I'll be paying very close attention to him.
The trouble is, now that we're so close to LYLO, we really can't afford to make a mistake here. Especially with Koritora, my read isn't strong enough to justify lynching him right now.
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aha, it seems like i will likely be lynched.
If anyone has any questions for me to answer, shoot.
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On March 18 2012 05:35 Nova_Terra wrote:
aha, it seems like i will likely be lynched.
If anyone has any questions for me to answer, shoot.
give scumreads with associated cases like i asked you to earlier today
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1. I think that i defended your case decently
2. I hate lurkers ruining the game so damn much
3. town reads: Nova_Terra Janaan, Mementoss
null: inferno, kori, veli
leaning scum: seviro, gosse
yeah yeah im attempting a case later on
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Yeah Lurkers are ruining the game so bad its so hard to put anything together still and its Day 3 QQ
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On March 18 2012 17:48 Nova_Terra wrote:
1. I think that i defended your case decently
2. I hate lurkers ruining the game so damn much
3. town reads: Nova_Terra Janaan, Mementoss
null: inferno, kori, veli
leaning scum: seviro, gosse
yeah yeah im attempting a case later on
gonna have a case before lynch time? cause otherwise you're still by FAR the most suspicious person in my eyes
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Seviro
Seviro starts the game off by posting analysis regarding lynching day 1. He also says that he is 100% against a random lynch.
On March 12 2012 01:51 Seviro wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2012 20:18 Nova_Terra wrote:
Please explain yourself. I dont like cosines play so far, his only post comes after someone accusing him of lurking. not only does he not bring anything new to the table, he confuses us and discredits others post (tofus) and calls it stupid.
Here I don't see how he is different than you about posting just after being accusiing of lurking since your first post was just after FirmTOfu called the current people in the game that hadn't post at this time Show nested quote +On March 11 2012 17:36 Nova_Terra wrote:Hey, Sorry, I was asleep for the last 8 hours and just woke up  I agree with always pushing a lynch as long as there is aome evidence that shows that the person is likely to be scum. for instance lurkers, bad defenders, etc. i also agree with a no lynch as long as there is overwhelming evidence that shows lynch candidates as being townies. But I guess you're right since he didn't post at all since then, where you have. I just think that FOSing someone this early in the game (8 hour ago was early I mean) after only a single post is a bit suspicious but I do agree that he is not clear of suspicion with his one post, not worth a FOS yet though
His next post attacks my FOS, but agrees that it is suspicious of cosine.
On March 12 2012 04:43 Seviro wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2012 04:17 Nova_Terra wrote:
Isnt that exactly what i said? i just want him to start posting and defend himself. I dont/didnt consider FOS a big commitment, sorry if i confused anyone and made it seem like i was gonna vote him. i still think hes totally suspicious for all the things i just said.
Yeah sorry, I just thought that FOS someoned base on a single post was a bit over reacting but I understand that you were in fact just stating that he was suspicious and as the day pass I agree more and more since he didn't post since then. Right now it's hard to make a decision though because there is many people that didn't post yet or if they did they just stated their position on the "no lynch/random lynch topics". We need more contribution to not make a mistake on our first lynch (if we decide to lynch that is)
Essentially says that FOS based on 1 post is suspicious but agrees with me that he was suspicious for not posting, which was my entire point in the FOS
Then goes on to state that its hard to make a decision due to inactivity, then states that more contribution is needed
His next post then states the obvious that cosine is getting more and more suspicious as time passes, more fluff
After this he does some more analysis on lynching/vs no lynching. Bringing up more not so important issues. Then he feels the need to clarify his first post to make sure we aren’t thinking that he doesn’t want a lynch day 1 and explains it as him wanting to make sure we discuss it first.
Then he agrees with a FirmTofu lynch and notes his own suspicions on him, further adding to the bandwagon. Then adds “helpful” fluff making sure that people vote right.
In his next post, he brings up koritora being contradictory, possibly trying to make him seem a bit suspicious. Then expresses sadness at tofu dying, and states finally that we should wait for the mafia kill to get information (leading up to his next post maybe?).
+ Show Spoiler +On March 14 2012 14:13 Seviro wrote:GG sbrubbles, be sure that we'll avenge your death. At first I was like why kill him, he was not really active, did not really help the town the first day and I didn't see him being a threat for anyone. Now after looking at his filter, his death give me some pointers. First, only 2 post of him contain some sort of analysis/suspicion. + Show Spoiler +On March 12 2012 10:45 Sbrubbles wrote:
Sup guys! My first post in this game, sorry it took so late!
It's hard to read someone based on the first half of the first day. On this whole Nova Terra/Cosine discussion, the only thing that stood out to me was Nova Terra's behavior, accusing and pushing on cosine (in a somewhat impatient manner), turning defensive when he's called out on it and then forgiving cosine after his post, seeming willing to go to the next topic. Being overly aggressive is not a usual day 1 mafia trait, but quickly turning defensive if called out some something is. Still, he is being active, so time will tell whether it was just a bit of town inexperience/carelessness or something more.
On March 12 2012 23:29 Sbrubbles wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2012 14:58 Nova_Terra wrote:On March 12 2012 10:45 Sbrubbles wrote:
Sup guys! My first post in this game, sorry it took so late!
It's hard to read someone based on the first half of the first day. On this whole Nova Terra/Cosine discussion, the only thing that stood out to me was Nova Terra's behavior, accusing and pushing on cosine (in a somewhat impatient manner), turning defensive when he's called out on it and then forgiving cosine after his post, seeming willing to go to the next topic. Being overly aggressive is not a usual day 1 mafia trait, but quickly turning defensive if called out some something is. Still, he is being active, so time will tell whether it was just a bit of town inexperience/carelessness or something more.
What is your point here? I didnt accuse him, i fos'ed him. two co pletely separate things, at least in my eyes. The pyshing on him was wanting him to respond, as was the point of my fos. I also wanted other people, like yourself, to come out of their lurking and post on this. I got frustrated when they started saying Nova_Terra is extremely eager to FoS because i was like... OH Really?!?! and then they went on to use my logic to say that he was suspicious. thats why i was mad. not exactly defensive, but frustrated at the town. Then, cosine posted exactly what i had been looking for, generating intelligent discussion. if by "willing to go onto the next topic" you mean "making new ideas that help the town and dont tunnel one person" i agree. please dont discredit my posting by calling it "inexperience/carelessness or something more" especially when this is your FIRST POST. later on i will come and explain why YOUR post seems suspicious to me. for now, im thinking eleanthas. You didn't accuse him? Short of actually voting for the fellow, threatening to vote for someone is as accusatory as it gets: + Show Spoiler +On March 12 2012 01:57 Nova_Terra wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2012 01:51 Seviro wrote:On March 11 2012 20:18 Nova_Terra wrote:
Please explain yourself. I dont like cosines play so far, his only post comes after someone accusing him of lurking. not only does he not bring anything new to the table, he confuses us and discredits others post (tofus) and calls it stupid.
Here I don't see how he is different than you about posting just after being accusiing of lurking since your first post was just after FirmTOfu called the current people in the game that hadn't post at this time On March 11 2012 17:36 Nova_Terra wrote:Hey, Sorry, I was asleep for the last 8 hours and just woke up I agree with always pushing a lynch as long as there is aome evidence that shows that the person is likely to be scum. for instance lurkers, bad defenders, etc. i also agree with a no lynch as long as there is overwhelming evidence that shows lynch candidates as being townies. But I guess you're right since he didn't post at all since then, where you have. I just think that FOSing someone this early in the game (8 hour ago was early I mean) after only a single post is a bit suspicious but I do agree that he is not clear of suspicion with his one post, not worth a FOS yet though Yeah, it was a funny coincedence that he posted that right before i woke up. i also pointed out the post before how the suspicion should also be on me. The thing is though, his post was extremely messed up and seemed very scummy. i definitely think it is worth an FOS seeing as nothing else was happening and i want him to clarify it up. its not like i voted for him yet or anything. On March 12 2012 01:59 Nova_Terra wrote:
EBWOP: and if cosine doesnt post and we dont get any other leads i feel that he would be a good lynch candidate.
Also, why so angry? Why do you insist (once again) on explaining the motives for your change of atitude? I pointed out that you were quick to turn defensive (or frustrated, as you say) when you were called out on it and it is my opinion that this is suspicious behavior, but that this doesn't matter for now because it is not worth it to push on a talkative (potential) mafia because there will be plenty of time for you to slip up later on if you really are scum. Now your answer is to threaten me, calling me suspicious? Anyway, question here: if the we agree to lynch a lurker, how are we gonna go about it? Bandwagon on the first non-replied accusation? At this point, besides Elean, we can consider a Inferno as a lurker. His post may not be contradictory like Elean (as in, he doesn't call himself worthless and suggests himself to be lynched), but he also hasn't contributed to the thread. Firmtofu looked like he was gonna participate but also hasn't said anything. In both of them, he state his suspicion on the early behaviour of Nova_Terra, maybe he was on something here. So I looked up Nova_Terra's filter and noticed so good thing. + Show Spoiler +On March 12 2012 14:58 Nova_Terra wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2012 10:45 Sbrubbles wrote:
Sup guys! My first post in this game, sorry it took so late!
It's hard to read someone based on the first half of the first day. On this whole Nova Terra/Cosine discussion, the only thing that stood out to me was Nova Terra's behavior, accusing and pushing on cosine (in a somewhat impatient manner), turning defensive when he's called out on it and then forgiving cosine after his post, seeming willing to go to the next topic. Being overly aggressive is not a usual day 1 mafia trait, but quickly turning defensive if called out some something is. Still, he is being active, so time will tell whether it was just a bit of town inexperience/carelessness or something more.
What is your point here? I didnt accuse him, i fos'ed him. two co pletely separate things, at least in my eyes. The pyshing on him was wanting him to respond, as was the point of my fos. I also wanted other people, like yourself, to come out of their lurking and post on this. I got frustrated when they started saying Nova_Terra is extremely eager to FoS because i was like... OH Really?!?! and then they went on to use my logic to say that he was suspicious. thats why i was mad. not exactly defensive, but frustrated at the town. Then, cosine posted exactly what i had been looking for, generating intelligent discussion. if by "willing to go onto the next topic" you mean "making new ideas that help the town and dont tunnel one person" i agree. please dont discredit my posting by calling it "inexperience/carelessness or something more" especially when this is your FIRST POST. later on i will come and explain why YOUR post seems suspicious to me. for now, im thinking eleanthas. In this one, he confront Scrubbles after he called him out on his early agressiveness, saying that it was to have some sort of conversatioin going out but also adding that he was frustrated by the town for not agreeing with him. Then he add to not "discredit his post by calling it inexperience/carelessness" where in fact Scrubbles was in fact only giving him some sort of excuse for what he posted earlier. As Scrubbles said, being defensive over such a small thing is suspicious to me. He then end his post on a semi-random call on eleanthas by saying that he is "thinking him". This way of wording it is like he want us to start pressuring eleanthas ourselves without stating it. That one-line call bugs me out a lot. He then tell why he thinks Scrubbles post was suspicous. + Show Spoiler +On March 12 2012 17:09 Nova_Terra wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2012 10:45 Sbrubbles wrote:
Sup guys! My first post in this game, sorry it took so late!
It's hard to read someone based on the first half of the first day. On this whole Nova Terra/Cosine discussion, the only thing that stood out to me was Nova Terra's behavior, accusing and pushing on cosine (in a somewhat impatient manner), turning defensive when he's called out on it and then forgiving cosine after his post, seeming willing to go to the next topic. Being overly aggressive is not a usual day 1 mafia trait, but quickly turning defensive if called out some something is. Still, he is being active, so time will tell whether it was just a bit of town inexperience/carelessness or something more.
I just want to point out like posts like this are scummy. Not making any “accusations” or anything. 1. Throws the blame onto others, as if I was the scummy acting one, whereas this was his first post and the point of it was to throw suspicion onto me. 2. Seemingly purposely not understanding my argument to provoke meaningless discussion 3. Discrediting posts by calling it inexperience/carelessness 4. Not wanting to actually point a finger at me or to throw enough blame that anyone would be suspicious. As you can see, these are all things that one may notice when reading a guide as to how scum should play. Show nested quote +1. Throws the blame onto others, as if I was the scummy acting one, whereas this was his first post and the point of it was to throw suspicion onto me. Why would Scrubbles throw the blame on him when he was not even targetted at all. I mean it's not like Scrubbles was our main target and he wanted to put the spot on another one whereas it is exactly waht Nova_Terra is doing by turning his post against him. Show nested quote +2. Seemingly purposely not understanding my argument to provoke meaningless discussion. He is dodging the fact that Scrubbles want more explanation about his early FOS by implying that there is nothing more to add and that Scrubbles is just wanting to bring up old discussion whereas it was legitimate of him to want some more since he was not convince of his innocence yet. See point 2, that is exactly what Nova do. Show nested quote +4. Not wanting to actually point a finger at me or to throw enough blame that anyone would be suspicious. What he did before on Eleanthas. Also, that was not what Scrubbles was doing he just happen to have come online after the veil of suspicion was lifted on Nova and he just wanted some clarification. Show nested quote +As you can see, these are all things that one may notice when reading a guide as to how scum should play. So well at this point pretty self-explanatory. Finally I will quote myself. + Show Spoiler +On March 13 2012 08:36 Seviro wrote:Oh god i'm late to the party today, Real life can be a whore Show nested quote +On March 13 2012 06:34 Nova_Terra wrote:
Okay, gossemerr, read the post above. I dont feel that a lynch on firmtofu will have any non-town results.
This is not trying to lynch you. I apologise for being so wishy washy and understand why people may not like this decision.
Unvote: FirmTofu
Vote: Gossemerr
I think you would be better voting for a no lynch because voting randomly for someone like this seems a bit scummy in my opinion but i guess you just didn't notice that you could just vote no lynch I think by voting on someone else since Tofu was most likely dead anyways, he wanted to not be associated with his death since he knew he was a townie (if he is a scum of course) and that kind of worked. + Show Spoiler +On March 13 2012 22:48 phagga wrote:So, the bandwagon on FirmTofu was rolling to easy. There was no opposition. As scum profits from mislynches, I am sure we will find at least 1 if not 2 scum on the voters of FirmTofu. Here's the final voting stand on FirmTofu again: FirmTofu (7): phagga, Eleanthas, Janaan, Gossemerr, Mementoss, Seviro, cosine, Janaan: He agrees on FirmTofu, and brings up Koritora as new suspect after the lynch with good reason. Does not look suspicious. Gossemerr: Trying to be active and helpful, lacking some content. Went a bit overboard with the "specific scenario" argument vs Nova_Tera IMO, but I think that's not an issue. Also brought up that noone is defending FirmTofu, although he again was not the first one to do so. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. Mementoss: Very active, posting analysis. Brought up Eleanthas, stated his position on several players. Does not look suspicious. Seviro: another rather active player, although content may be debatable. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. cosine: He speaks out several times vs a lurker lynch on Day1, but then jumps easily on the FirmTofu bandwagon to lynch a lurker. Besides defending himself, he did not add anything substantial. I don't like that. Eleanthas: His posting is still lacking, he actually only reiterated the wordings of others. His only longer post is this one: Show nested quote +On March 13 2012 01:57 Eleanthas wrote:Ok. Sorry for not responding. Saw discussion towards me at school with my phone, but really hard to write anything with it so decided to wait untill I come home. Anyway have been busy atm. Will change now. 1So what Can i say about first post. It was really just a post to tell people I'm alive. In some forums, you get replaced if you don't speak on first half of day, so I guess I followed that rule there. Had really nothing to say. Just plain stupid first post from me. 2About Nova_Terra: He seems eager to accuse anybody scum if given even a small chance. I guess he is trying to presure players to talk to get discussion going on. Doesn't seem too scummy for me, but have to keep eye on him. 3So what I think about InfernOokami7: On March 12 2012 08:40 InfernOokami7 wrote:
I'm not 100% in favor of a no lynch on day 1 as long as there is a reasonable amount of suspicion for someone. I just didn't see the point in voting to lynch someone if the reason wasn't there because instead of just giving the mafia a free pass for the night, you're giving them a 2 for 1 deal instead. beside that post he has 4 post saying pretty much same. I guess he is trying to lurk by stating same thing in many posts. Would like to hear about him. 4And lastly about FirmTofu: Like many others pointed out FirmTofu posted 2 fast posts. Seems kinda suspicous to me. Telling to pick one of the lurkers and listing them and then vanishing. If we don't hear about him, my vote is gonna go for him. 5
##Vote FirmTofu 1 + 2 Apologizes for not posting earlier, then calls his own first post stupid, although the post itself was not that bad. The fact that he did not post more after this short oneliner was bad. 3 Seviro, Mementoss and Sbrubbles already pointed out the exact same thing. Actually, just take a look at Mementoss phrase: Show nested quote +On March 12 2012 02:33 Mementoss wrote:
I agree with this post, it seems NovaTerra is eager to FoS despite how early in the game it was, which seems a little suspicious. But, it is most likely just a pressure play, to get the discussion rolling, and people talking. Eleanthas post is the same content with different wording. 4 Was brought up in a similar form by Mementoss. 5 Was brought up by pretty much everyone active in the thread at that time. So, he actually said nothing. The comments on each of his 3 "suspects" are really short and only repeat thoughts brought up by others. For me, he is one of the more suspect persons in the game. ##FoS: Eleanthas in his post Phagga write a global analysis of everyone that vote for the lynch without touching to those who didn't. If I'm correct, that was quite a nice play from Nova. So Nova_Terra I can't wait for your answers. That said, I'm going to bed ##Big FOS:Nova_Terra
Seviro constructs a WIFOM case to make me seem suspicious and to mislead us after leading up to it with his “waiting for mafia kill” post. Then he makes sure to note to phagga that he is analyzing, like a “see im doing something useful” gesture. Then he pulls the “Im new that’s why I didn’t know WIFOM was bad” card when his case wasn’t received as well as it could have been. He later states that the case on lurkers is a “hard one” as we cannot tell if they are town or scum. Oh really?
Then he agrees that the Im new kind of post isn’t okay.
Then he provides a reason for him not voting yet, in essence providing a reason for not pointing a finger yet.
Then, suddenly, Seviro uses Backwards WIFOM, suddenly understanding the exact opposite side to the case he had made versus me, and uses it to put down Ele, another townie, as his vote.
Then he posts fluff on how he messed up on math.
On March 16 2012 05:51 Seviro wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 04:59 Nova_Terra wrote:
@ Velinath
I put my vote onto Gossemerr because i find that in his posts, he is the most dangerous player out of the three. I find that his posting has some qualities that make his arguments seem plausible and valid, and shares his ideas/information (when he has any) in the most comprehensive manner out of the three, which is why i find him more dangerous. While I agree on that, I feel like if he flips town we would lose a big contibutor of the town whereas if we lynch Eleanthas there is 2 possibilities: 1. he flips Town and we lose a semi-lurker that didn't help the town at all since the start of the game 2. He turns out to be indeed scum which then we can safely say that Gossemer is most likely a scum as well. I feel like Eleanthas is the safest lynch for today, hence my vote. As for the third possible scum, I don't have a clue yet but if these two are indeed scum that would make it much more easier to find him based on their post.
Now he pulls something interesting. He doesn’t want to lynch gossemerr because we would lose a big contributor to the town instead of a lurker, and that if Ele turned scum, Gosse was likely scum. Imagine this from a scum point of view, if Seviro was scum. Seviro could be saying that he wants to lynch a townie instead of his mafia ally, Gossemerr. and not only in a way that excuses him voting for ele, in a way that makes Gosse seem more innocent when Ele flips town.
He further defends Gosse moderately in his next post.
He defends Gosse voting Janaan even more in the post after that,
On March 16 2012 06:52 Seviro wrote:EBWOP It's seem like I missed a part of my post. Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 06:13 Nova_Terra wrote:
@ seviro, i think the same reasoning applies to Gosse. Take a look at his filter; he really isnt a big contributor. at all. he barely has more posts than ele, and spreads doubt regarding members of the town better.
in those 2 cases:
1. he flips town and we lose a semi lurker whos best case is just a few lines suspecting janaan without much reason to back it up
2. he turns out to be a scum which means we can assume that ele is scum as well, which likely makes inferno a scum.
I agree with either of the two as a lynch target, but there is something to be said for eliminating the more dangerous player first.
I will be on for another ~30 minutes where i can answer questions or change my vote (between those 2). Sorry for any typos, typing on an ipad. Show nested quote +1. he flips town and we lose a semi lurker whos best case is just a few lines suspecting janaan without much reason to back it up Well to be fair I think he had somthing to back it up. First, he point out that Janaan bring up his suspicion on Koritora after the lynch has been done. Had he post that before the end of the day that could have saved FirmTofu. Also the fact that Janaan wrote his post suspecting Koritora right after the night post as if he wanted to lead the discussion. + Show Spoiler +On March 13 2012 14:06 Janaan wrote:GG FirmTofu I think we need to use this night phase to get some cases rolling. We don't have much to go on as far as cases go from Day 1, so we've got our work cut out for us. One thing I noticed from the votes that I found very interesting was Koritora's No Lynch vote. Here's one of his early posts: Show nested quote +On March 12 2012 10:22 koritora wrote:
However, to lynch a lurker is not a bad thing. It's not helping anyone in the town. As for people against lynching on the Day 1, that's where my suspicion lies. Then he turns around and: Show nested quote +On March 13 2012 09:37 koritora wrote:
Well besides the fact FirmTofu has only made talk about lynching a lurker, there isn't really much else to go on. Same case can be made for InfernoOkami7. But since either hasn't spoken up lately, I can only assume they are lurking and that puts my vote up in the air for these two unless they come and contribute something meaningful. But as of the moment, I can't decide between the two and therefore going with a no lynch.
##Vote: No Lynch First he says that he's suspicious of anyone who is against lynching on day 1. Then he's all of a sudden against lynching on day 1? This seems like a huge contradiction to me. Is it possible that he's trying to take away suspicion since he didn't vote for the mislynch? I'm not sure, but it's definitely possible. I think he's definitely worth a closer look. Then, in his vote post he seem to agree with my case on you and found it strange that Jaanan protect you like this. While these accusation are debatable, I don't think that he had no reason to vote on Janaan whereas Eleanthas is much more a semi-lurker as he never really stated his own opinion about anything.
And then continues to explain why voting janaan could have made sense in his next.
And continues to edit his posting on why janaan could be mafia.
He then jumps on board the Nova Scummy again train, and shows again his suspicions for me.
Enjoy, this is also why I found Gosse leaning scum, partnered to the points in my earlier case that were not based on connections.
I was tempted to vote for no lynch, but as I am starting to think that there may be no dt, it would just prolong our doom, I am afraid, and so, I will vote based on this case and my gut feelings.
##Vote: Seviro
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