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Cwave
Netherlands313 Posts
On January 10 2012 01:44 Grackaroni wrote: It's also possible that the AoD targeted Syllo/HoD and I think they're way more likely to attack Syllo than HoD. Ah damn, that's right, i read that part now. | ||
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Barbiero
Brazil5259 Posts
On January 09 2012 11:22 Spaackle wrote: Well, now that we know that Palmar is scum, we should take a look at a post the he made earlier: I'll bet we find Palmar's scumbuddies in the list of the people that he declared as townies. Yeah, there may be Palmar's scumbuddies there. Let's see, we got Cwave, Dirkzor, RoL... OH HAI SPAACKLE. On January 08 2012 11:30 Spaackle wrote: Palmar:Filter (clicky) 1) Get Information -- Palmar has been pretty active in this goal. He's been putting forth a lots of questions (even if no one answers them). He also pressured Bluelightz for a good while, trying to get an actual response out of him. He's also been putting lots of pressure on Wiggles, but this was mostly in response to Wiggles' accusation of him. I'd like to see a bit more justification out of him though. 2) Create an Atmosphere -- Palmar has been acting pretty town here too. He's been answering questions, and in turn posing many more. His posting hasn't been very reactionary, and for the most part, he's been trying to keep the town discussing relevant subjects. 3) Figure out Plans -- As I said in the risk.nuke analysis, there's hasn't been much of this in this game. Palmar is one of the closest to actually doing this. He's been trying to keep discussion relevant, and I guess this eventually leads to plans. Palmar is looking like a townie to me, but don't stop watching him. Yup, definitely townie, with green color! No, there is not enough info for pushing a lynch, but I'd like people to keep an eye on him. Also Tyrran, his posts are weird for me. as for flips, people said already the possibilities, but I don't think the AoD in on the list(syllo/HoD); most likely he targetted one of them. Question is which one was saved by a demon and which one was saved by town. Question: Why was HoD jailed? We can explain syllo - he is strong as town and it's possible that our jailer targeted him since he is a likely n1 shot. But what would be Town motivation to jail HoD? Does he have a history of great town play(like syllo)? If you can't find a reasonable answer for that question, what are the odds that HoD was a demon, or that HoD was targetted by Palmar in order to make people look at him(ie. jailing to bring suspicion)? Finally, I don't get the Cwave/Dirkzor thing. If someone could kindly summarize it for me, I'd appreciate it. Funny that they are on Palmar's "Town" list. Yes, I know I am on that list as well, but that's just because I was this close to sucking him yesterday after his case. That was due to the XLVIII fiasco and I told myself "listen to veterans you know". I swear I'd probably end up helping demons this game, had Palmar not died. | ||
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Cwave
Netherlands313 Posts
On January 09 2012 10:41 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ah man, who will I lynch today now?  Also, the AoD either didn't hit, or it's one of HoD or syllo. Acolyte missed. All people sent to purgatory are now targets of the channeler. Errrrrr.... Acolyte isn't confirmed missfired as we don't know if the town demon hunter or the acolyte killed him(must be one or the other). Or are you the acolyte/ town demon hunter........ Other possibility is that the AoD hit a target that the demonic twister picked to twist. Demonic Twister (x1) Your specialized control of dark powers allows you distort the powers of the light. During the night, you may target a player to twist. Any attempts to illuminate, slay, stalk, or observe that player will fail. On even numbered nights, the demon team may also target a player to corrupt, and choose one of its members to perform this action. If the target is town, that player will be corrupted and your team will control his or her vote. You win with the demons. You may communicate outside of the thread with your demonic teammates, who are: | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
Syllo and HoD sent to purgatory palmar tageted Syllo/Hod channeller targeted the other HoD/Syllo Palmar flipped scum Demon Hunter attacked him Acolyte missed (they picked a vannilla; picked wrong role; the target was twisted or sent to purgatory; or they picked correctly and target was twisted or sent to Purgatory.) this seems likely. OR Acolyte picked demon on palmar and slayed him and demon hunter missed but didn't hit town (they picked a target in purgatory or was sent there or picked an angel or didn't attack) No AoD kill: either the AoD was sent to purgatory and is syllo or HoD. -likely OR the AoD targeted a player sent to purgatory (either syllo or HoD). -likely OR the AoD targeted a player that was twisted. -less likely OR didnt send a kill. -makes no sense To me it seems most likely that syllo or HoD is the angel of death but with only the channeller and likeliness of neither being the angel of death it seems very dangerous to assume that one of them is. +I can (99%) confirm that i sent my vote before refallen last night so when he wrote "done" he was lying about his vote at the last minute + Show Spoiler + Original Message From Zona: The list of votes (and unvotes) on the same target are in the order that ZBot received them, even in the same refresh cycle. Suppose "Player A" voted on Zona at 10:07, and "Player B" voted on Zona at 10:09, and ZBot refreshed at 10:05 and 10:10. 10:05 would show no votes 10:10 would show Zona (2): Player A, Player B I have in the past, tried to determine for myself whether or not TL consistently lists pms sent during the same minute in the order that they were sent and vaguely remember an incident in which TL did not, but even if I am remembering correctly, this rarely happens. I have asked Zona what would happen if the demon hunter and AoD picked the same target too. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
risk.nuke Refallen Tyrran Dirkzor RoL Jackal? (there is town there but i think these players should receive heightened attention) | ||
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Cwave
Netherlands313 Posts
Small odds but possible. | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
I think Palmar and/or his team mistakenly believed that I was the demon hunter due to these posts: + Show Spoiler + Detailed understanding of the role: On January 04 2012 17:56 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Demon Hunter: Twister: Doesn't make any mention of attack (nor of sense). Demon hunter should be good to go on any twisted demons. First to point out that the demon hunter is also effective vs angels: On January 05 2012 03:55 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Some things to think about: If the town seer claims after finding a single angel we have a 2/3 chance of reducing their kp, 2/3 chance of making it much safer to claim corruption, and a 100% chance of getting a lot of good information after the angel flips. There are no abilities in the game which make the reads come back incorrect. The angels also DO NOT have a roleblocking ability, so they then have to decide if they want to target the seer and risk missing a kp if the seer is sent to purgatory or leave him be. Obviously this becomes much riskier if we have already lost our channeler. I'd be interested to hear if other people think having the seer claim after their first angel find is a good idea as well. The sage on the other hand probably shouldn't claim unless he has 2 demons identified. If he claims with only one identified, 0% chance of reducing kp or reducing the corruption ability, demons have a roleblock ability, angels can kill the sage to make demons a larger threat to town thereby reducing focus on them. Still gain information obviously, but overall seems like a much weaker play than the seer claiming after finding an angel. The demon hunter is not only useful against demons. His attacks kill anything that isn't an angel....meaning if his target lives and wasn't sent to purgatory, he has successfully identified an angel. However, since he poses a significant threat to both angels and demons, I don't really see much of a reason for the demon hunter to ever claim, except perhaps to avoid a lynch if he fucks up and appears scummy. So please don't do that. On Bluelightz: I will go check out his filter in the newbie game to see what all the fuss is about. Unfortunately for the demons, and fortunately for us, they were incorrect and Palmar got stabbed in the face. (Yes, it is possible that it was the acolyte, but why would the angels kill someone they could get lynched when lynching is the only way for us to kill the angels?) | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
@cwave what are your thoughts on the game so far? who do you think we should be lynching? | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On January 10 2012 03:16 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Why I think I was put in purgatory: I think Palmar and/or his team mistakenly believed that I was the demon hunter due to these posts: + Show Spoiler + Detailed understanding of the role: On January 04 2012 17:56 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Demon Hunter: Twister: Doesn't make any mention of attack (nor of sense). Demon hunter should be good to go on any twisted demons. First to point out that the demon hunter is also effective vs angels: On January 05 2012 03:55 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Some things to think about: If the town seer claims after finding a single angel we have a 2/3 chance of reducing their kp, 2/3 chance of making it much safer to claim corruption, and a 100% chance of getting a lot of good information after the angel flips. There are no abilities in the game which make the reads come back incorrect. The angels also DO NOT have a roleblocking ability, so they then have to decide if they want to target the seer and risk missing a kp if the seer is sent to purgatory or leave him be. Obviously this becomes much riskier if we have already lost our channeler. I'd be interested to hear if other people think having the seer claim after their first angel find is a good idea as well. The sage on the other hand probably shouldn't claim unless he has 2 demons identified. If he claims with only one identified, 0% chance of reducing kp or reducing the corruption ability, demons have a roleblock ability, angels can kill the sage to make demons a larger threat to town thereby reducing focus on them. Still gain information obviously, but overall seems like a much weaker play than the seer claiming after finding an angel. The demon hunter is not only useful against demons. His attacks kill anything that isn't an angel....meaning if his target lives and wasn't sent to purgatory, he has successfully identified an angel. However, since he poses a significant threat to both angels and demons, I don't really see much of a reason for the demon hunter to ever claim, except perhaps to avoid a lynch if he fucks up and appears scummy. So please don't do that. On Bluelightz: I will go check out his filter in the newbie game to see what all the fuss is about. Unfortunately for the demons, and fortunately for us, they were incorrect and Palmar got stabbed in the face. (Yes, it is possible that it was the acolyte, but why would the angels kill someone they could get lynched when lynching is the only way for us to kill the angels?) Gloating and WIFOM in the same post? scummy? | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
On January 10 2012 03:19 layabout wrote: Gloating and WIFOM in the same post? scummy? What gloating? And it isn't WIFOM, it is the simplest explanation. There is no 'but then they would think I know they know I am the demon hunter and not do anything about it!' Zero WIFOM involved. Some speculation, yes, but that is quite different from WIFOM. If you were a demon, who would you most like to roleblock? I would think certainly the demon hunter, possibly sage, but most likely demon hunter if nobody is corrupted yet. | ||
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
On January 09 2012 11:36 Jackal58 wrote: It makes more sense for Palmar to protect a teammate than to try to block a blue. I think Palmar sent Syllo to purgatory. You still think syllo is on palmars team? If yes, so you think I'm on that team aswell? Because thats a crap theory. You just think i'm palmars scumbuddy because he called me town several times the first day - or? I don't want to lynch Cwave. I wanted him to think for himself! + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:02 Dirkzor wrote: I'm looking through Cwave's filter. He looks fishy. Not only for saying he thinks i'm scum several times with the only reasoning is a weak ass "case" about my first post and because It found a difference in the OP and Zbot vote count post. But more so because he havent said anything else the entire first day. He have spend the entire day 1 pointing out the obvious: RoL arent posting, Jackal have done nothing but hate palmar (But i must admit i found his post on Jackal amusing =)) He haven't taken a stance on anything and voted Erandorr with the reason that he is lurking. I'll keep an eye on him... It was a pure pressure vote and it worked. Also i noted that Tyrran came after me. Totally justified since all I did was voting for Cwave with no real reason. But having in mind that he knows he is already under suspicion he wants to find another target. Lastly I want to look at this post: + Show Spoiler + On January 09 2012 21:16 Refallen wrote: Well I decided to take a look at Cwave since Dirk is voting for him. Cwave Ok, weird role to choose the most important power of. Unless you're a demon. Buddying with Palmar, possible scumbuddies? The exchange about risk.nuke and his plan sounds especially contrived. Not wanting to vote risk.nuke? I'm going to say that if we lynch risk.nuke and he flips demon, Cwave is most probably the last one. The first point he makes is the exact same one i made earlier. How is asking and answering Palmars question buddying up to him? I fail to see that. And the part about risk's plan Refallen actually cut the end of the post from Cwave where he answered the question from Palmar. Palmar never clarified which plan he was talking about - it was kinda obvious what he meant but it could also easily be misunderstood if cwave just went through risk's filter looking for a plan. Last Refallen conclude that if Risk is demon Cwave must be too. While it is possible that palmar was bussing risk I find it unlikely. So Refallen is just trying to jump an easy wagon? His case just seemed forced as if he wanted Cwave to appear scummy because I already voted for him. Either way I'm unvoting Cwave. That vote did what was intended. | ||
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Cwave
Netherlands313 Posts
On January 10 2012 03:17 layabout wrote: i didn't feel it was worth pointing out specifically but it is probably worth noting. @cwave what are your thoughts on the game so far? who do you think we should be lynching? Day1 started timidly but in the end picked up speed and because of it, we all gained a lot of (spammy)info. Mostely useless but the vote switch at the end and Palmar flipping demon the game really started now. There is more info hidden among the players here as the Sage and Seer have either confirmed/unconfirmed Angels/Demons and the town demon hunter knows if he was succesfull or not and in what way. As for lynching, Dirkzor for now because is either nooby/scummy and votes for me because i question him. Not set in stone as lynching someone on a bad response after a little pressure most of the time flips a townie. Risk.nuke on my list cause of the lynch save last day in the final hour. Very suspicious of Syllo but he has earned some close watching by everyone. in my opinion. More so due to the dance he did with palmar and the vote switch 8 min apart both to the same target after having targeted eachother. | ||
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
On January 10 2012 03:08 layabout wrote: Suspicious bastards: risk.nuke Refallen Tyrran Dirkzor RoL Jackal? (there is town there but i think these players should receive heightened attention) Why me? Because Jackal have been tunneling me? Because Cwave's bad case? Because i voted Cwave? | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
How does it help town? I think Palmar and/or his team mistakenly believed that I was the demon hunter due to these posts: You connect the idea of you being sent to purgatory* with the idea that your posting caused the demons to think that you were the demon hunter. You present the idea of your posts being responsible for the angels banishing you because you have made them think that you were the demonhunter. From this it would easily be infered that you posted TO make them think you were they demon hunter. You then say fortunately for us, they were incorrect and Palmar got stabbed in the face To me this seems like gloating because you associate the demons thinking that you were the demon hunter (which is WIFOM and total speculation) with a demon being lynchedI don't see how this helps town but i do see how you associate your posting at the start of the game and a demon flipping and how this tries to put you in a better light despite the fact that your decisions about how to behave were almost certainly not made with that goal in mind and if they were the actual chance of them acheiving the result of a dead demon is next to none. That is why i see it as gloating. Speculation about scum motivation and scum goals when they commit actions that will be subject to scrutiny is what part of your post is and is almost the perfect example of WIFOM. *which could have been because either the channeller though you were a town asset to protect or a demon or angel to roleblock OR the demons felt that you were a blue or an angel OR you were targeted by one of the two because they felt night actions would land on you and they wished to roleblock those targerting you OR they may have simply wanted increase attention on you. There is a plethora of reasons that could be the case and without addition information we cannot rule many out. If the demons send a player to purgatory they know towwn will find out and this will impact their decision making. | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
On January 09 2012 19:58 syllogism wrote: I'm pretty sure palmar sent HoD to purgatory because he thought he was likely an angel. We of course can't draw any conclusions from that, but as noted before HoD's play has been somewhat suspicious so far. Anyway, either the angel of death attempted to hit me or the angel is HoD (or both!) It's also fairly likely that Palmar was a demon hunter hit because demon Demonic Twister's power protects against slay/stalk but not against demon hunter. Palmar had an important role, so it's somewhat likely that they would use it on him. I'm not sure if the twister can use the ability on himself, but right considering Palmar was by far attracting the most attention, that might change things depending on who the twister is. The only reason why it matters who hit Palmar is because the other possibility is that the demon hunter hit an angel who did not die, in which case we could discuss whether him claiming would be worthwhile. Probably not and his likely target would be risk nuke anyway. Risk.nuke still looks like the best lynch. The case against him still stands and quite a few people were against his lynch without adequately explaining why. They obviously can't all be his team mates, but it's hard to believe there would be that many townies unwilling to lynch him in that situation and be perfectly fine with lynching erandorr. His behaviour hasn't improved at all and that vt claim right before day post doesn't seem like something a townie would do. Syllo, you're pretty smart, so please tell me why on earth you think Palmar would banish me to purgatory if he thought I was an angel? Let's look at the scenarios: 1) I am the Angelic Observer - sending me to purgatory does nothing for the demons. 2) I am the Acolyte - unless I for some reason decide to go after a demon instead of a blue, does nothing for the demons. If I do go after blues, doing this hurts the demons. 3) I am the Angel of Death - I would never hit Palmar when I could get town to use up a lynch on him as lynching is the only anti-angel kp. Also leading a scum lynch can get some town cred. So one demon (Palmar) is safe. Another demon can be twisted, so now 2 are safe. Note, so far this also applies to the acolyte even if the acolyte is targeting a demon. So now blocking the angel of death is only useful if the third demon is also a likely target for a scum night kill. I don't see how any of those are a better choice than targeting someone you think is a blue, especially if you have no idea which I am and are taking the 1/3 chance of a remotely useful roleblock. As I stated, I think it is much more likely he thought I was blue than an angel. | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
Also while Palmar is a very good player, he doesn't care about game mechanics, so I doubt he put much thought into who he targeted in terms of overall game strategy. | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
On January 10 2012 03:51 layabout wrote: What Purpose does the Post "Why I think I was put in purgatory" serve? How does it help town? I think Palmar and/or his team mistakenly believed that I was the demon hunter due to these posts: You connect the idea of you being sent to purgatory* with the idea that your posting caused the demons to think that you were the demon hunter. You present the idea of your posts being responsible for the angels banishing you because you have made them think that you were the demonhunter. From this it would easily be infered that you posted TO make them think you were they demon hunter. You then say To me this seems like gloating because you associate the demons thinking that you were the demon hunter (which is WIFOM and total speculation) with a demon being lynched I don't see how this helps town but i do see how you associate your posting at the start of the game and a demon flipping and how this tries to put you in a better light despite the fact that your decisions about how to behave were almost certainly not made with that goal in mind and if they were the actual chance of them acheiving the result of a dead demon is next to none. That is why i see it as gloating. Speculation about scum motivation and scum goals when they commit actions that will be subject to scrutiny is what part of your post is and is almost the perfect example of WIFOM. *which could have been because either the channeller though you were a town asset to protect or a demon or angel to roleblock OR the demons felt that you were a blue or an angel OR you were targeted by one of the two because they felt night actions would land on you and they wished to roleblock those targerting you OR they may have simply wanted increase attention on you. There is a plethora of reasons that could be the case and without addition information we cannot rule many out. If the demons send a player to purgatory they know towwn will find out and this will impact their decision making. The post serves to help clarify the situation and give town some potentially useful information, clarity and information are both valuable to town. Ideally it also lowers suspicion on myself, which seeing as I know I am town, is also good for town. Also, as I said, it is NOT WIFOM if the goal is to roleblock. Not doing it doesn't roleblock me, it isn't like if I was the demon hunter I'd go "better not send in a night action in case I get roleblocked!" Roleblocking stops someone from using their role if roleblock them, and doesn't if you don't do it. WIFOM is they killed x, he was suspicious of y! Does that mean y is scum, or they want us to think y is scum? Yes, it is possible they wanted to increase suspicion on me as well, and that part is subject to WIFOM'ing. (They wanted to make me more suspicious, so that actually makes me less suspicious, but they would know that so it is more suspicious....etc etc etc) | ||
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Cwave
Netherlands313 Posts
On January 10 2012 03:52 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Syllo, you're pretty smart, so please tell me why on earth you think Palmar would banish me to purgatory if he thought I was an angel? Let's look at the scenarios: 1) I am the Angelic Observer - sending me to purgatory does nothing for the demons. 2) I am the Acolyte - unless I for some reason decide to go after a demon instead of a blue, does nothing for the demons. If I do go after blues, doing this hurts the demons. 3) I am the Angel of Death - I would never hit Palmar when I could get town to use up a lynch on him as lynching is the only anti-angel kp. Also leading a scum lynch can get some town cred. So one demon (Palmar) is safe. Another demon can be twisted, so now 2 are safe. Note, so far this also applies to the acolyte even if the acolyte is targeting a demon. So now blocking the angel of death is only useful if the third demon is also a likely target for a scum night kill. I don't see how any of those are a better choice than targeting someone you think is a blue, especially if you have no idea which I am and are taking the 1/3 chance of a remotely useful roleblock. As I stated, I think it is much more likely he thought I was blue than an angel. Wowowowo, you oversee(on purpose?) one thing. This is a 3 faction game but when it comes to lyncing, its a 2 faction game looking from your own POV(town,angel,demon). Lynching is our only way to kill angels and demons help just as much with their lynch vote as the town when it comes to killing an angel. So your point 3 is wrong cause when you are the AoD you want demon and town dead as they can lynch vote you. And of all the demons, the demonic courier is the one that can actually hurt the angel team. So hell yeah you would hit Palmar if you knew he was the courier. Point 1) can you out your angel of death and get him couriered for 3 straight nights. Point 2) can get you the twister or courier killed, all in the benefit of both the town and angels. Another weird point if that you choose to eloborate point 3) with way more effort and text. If this was "The mentalist" or "Lie to me" i would call dibs in the couch on who was the liar as people tend to put to much effort in the lie they want to tell. Points up on my suspected angel-list HoB...... | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
The post serves to help clarify the situation and give town some potentially useful information, clarity and information are both valuable to town. Ideally it also lowers suspicion on myself, which seeing as I know I am town, is also good for town. Also, as I said, it is NOT WIFOM if the goal is to roleblock. Not doing it doesn't roleblock me, it isn't like if I was the demon hunter I'd go "better not send in a night action in case I get roleblocked!" Roleblocking stops someone from using their role if roleblock them, and doesn't if you don't do it. WIFOM is they killed x, he was suspicious of y! Does that mean y is scum, or they want us to think y is scum? Yes, it is possible they wanted to increase suspicion on me as well, and that part is subject to WIFOM'ing. (They wanted to make me more suspicious, so that actually makes me less suspicious, but they would know that so it is more suspicious....etc etc etc) You haven't said what the "potentially useful information is" yet you say that you have given it and that it was valuable to town. You don't know what the goal is! You can'teven know for certain who palmar transported (unless you are a demon and he told you or you are the channeller). I suggest that the whole thing is subject to WIFOM-ing. It is called "Why i think i was put in Purgatory", what exactly can you follow that up with that is wifom!! Wifom is also: did Palmar tansported HoD? why? Does that mean HoD is scum with him? Did Palmar think he was the other scumteam? Did Palmar wish to increase suspicion? since your post provides answers to those questions and attempts to explain them then yes it is WIFOM. It isn't helpful. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
I really do not like the ##Vote Cwave, AHA i got you cwave! ##Unvote play +you weren't on my Likey town list anyway +what kind of respectable townie doesn't know monty python? Not sure if i have time to come up with a detailed case today particularly as it's only the start of day2, and there are better candidates. (thats means you risk.nuke) | ||
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