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On December 27 2011 02:49 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2011 02:03 TruthBringer wrote:
Blazinghand, how exactly do you get a townread from someone at this point in this game?
Based on my assumptions, which I clearly stated in my previous post. Everybody is just A, B, . . . H, I right now. I am not sure that putting any more thought into it is going to cause me to rationally approve of A, B, C, but not A, B, D. It's the kind of read that is more solid if more people post analysis of what they think the optimal move is. I think it's reasonable for any team leader to chose himself as part of his team on this first day, since to him he is a confirmed town, in order to maximize our odds. In any case, I don't view people as A, B, C-- you know why? Currently people have already diverged somewhat in posting patterns, if only because it's christmastime and some people haven't had time to post yet. For example, I haven't seen a post from Zona, whereas I HAVE seen a post from you. This means to me, Zona is indeed just "player A who hasn't posted yet"... but you are not. You are a person with a history. You blindly yay-voted the first town leader on the basis of "Well forming reads on the first day is harddddddddddd (or impossible)". brb 3 hours
quick question. What's more important for you: Getting information d1 based off our mission or getting a successful mission d1?
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So we're not voting for Radfield but rather his choice of a team for night 1 correct?
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Right, we vote yes for his team. If we vote no the next leader is chosen. So basically yes for his team, no for the leader unless I'm mistaken.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 27 2011 03:15 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2011 02:49 Blazinghand wrote:On December 27 2011 02:03 TruthBringer wrote:
Blazinghand, how exactly do you get a townread from someone at this point in this game?
Based on my assumptions, which I clearly stated in my previous post. Everybody is just A, B, . . . H, I right now. I am not sure that putting any more thought into it is going to cause me to rationally approve of A, B, C, but not A, B, D. It's the kind of read that is more solid if more people post analysis of what they think the optimal move is. I think it's reasonable for any team leader to chose himself as part of his team on this first day, since to him he is a confirmed town, in order to maximize our odds. In any case, I don't view people as A, B, C-- you know why? Currently people have already diverged somewhat in posting patterns, if only because it's christmastime and some people haven't had time to post yet. For example, I haven't seen a post from Zona, whereas I HAVE seen a post from you. This means to me, Zona is indeed just "player A who hasn't posted yet"... but you are not. You are a person with a history. You blindly yay-voted the first town leader on the basis of "Well forming reads on the first day is harddddddddddd (or impossible)". brb 3 hours quick question. What's more important for you: Getting information d1 based off our mission or getting a successful mission d1?
I don't see why those would be mutually exclusive. In fact, I see those as the same thing. A successful mission gives is 3 probable towns, whereas a failed mission just says "well someone among these three is mafia but we don't know who ._."
So I'd say: yes, gathering d1 info by getting a successful mission is the most important.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 27 2011 05:51 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2011 03:15 Toadesstern wrote:On December 27 2011 02:49 Blazinghand wrote:On December 27 2011 02:03 TruthBringer wrote:
Blazinghand, how exactly do you get a townread from someone at this point in this game?
Based on my assumptions, which I clearly stated in my previous post. Everybody is just A, B, . . . H, I right now. I am not sure that putting any more thought into it is going to cause me to rationally approve of A, B, C, but not A, B, D. It's the kind of read that is more solid if more people post analysis of what they think the optimal move is. I think it's reasonable for any team leader to chose himself as part of his team on this first day, since to him he is a confirmed town, in order to maximize our odds. In any case, I don't view people as A, B, C-- you know why? Currently people have already diverged somewhat in posting patterns, if only because it's christmastime and some people haven't had time to post yet. For example, I haven't seen a post from Zona, whereas I HAVE seen a post from you. This means to me, Zona is indeed just "player A who hasn't posted yet"... but you are not. You are a person with a history. You blindly yay-voted the first town leader on the basis of "Well forming reads on the first day is harddddddddddd (or impossible)". brb 3 hours quick question. What's more important for you: Getting information d1 based off our mission or getting a successful mission d1? I don't see why those would be mutually exclusive. In fact, I see those as the same thing. A successful mission gives is 3 probable towns, whereas a failed mission just says "well someone among these three is mafia but we don't know who ._." So I'd say: yes, gathering d1 info by getting a successful mission is the most important.
Well, what you were saying earlier is that if I think 1 of Zona and Palmar is scum, it makes the most sense to actually take one of those players along. That would decrease our odds of victory, but increase our information potential. Yes?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
If I select a team, can I later change my team? If yes I assume everyone will have to vote on it again. I just want to make sure I'm not locked in if I choose a team.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 27 2011 06:06 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2011 05:51 Blazinghand wrote:On December 27 2011 03:15 Toadesstern wrote:On December 27 2011 02:49 Blazinghand wrote:On December 27 2011 02:03 TruthBringer wrote:
Blazinghand, how exactly do you get a townread from someone at this point in this game?
Based on my assumptions, which I clearly stated in my previous post. Everybody is just A, B, . . . H, I right now. I am not sure that putting any more thought into it is going to cause me to rationally approve of A, B, C, but not A, B, D. It's the kind of read that is more solid if more people post analysis of what they think the optimal move is. I think it's reasonable for any team leader to chose himself as part of his team on this first day, since to him he is a confirmed town, in order to maximize our odds. In any case, I don't view people as A, B, C-- you know why? Currently people have already diverged somewhat in posting patterns, if only because it's christmastime and some people haven't had time to post yet. For example, I haven't seen a post from Zona, whereas I HAVE seen a post from you. This means to me, Zona is indeed just "player A who hasn't posted yet"... but you are not. You are a person with a history. You blindly yay-voted the first town leader on the basis of "Well forming reads on the first day is harddddddddddd (or impossible)". brb 3 hours quick question. What's more important for you: Getting information d1 based off our mission or getting a successful mission d1? I don't see why those would be mutually exclusive. In fact, I see those as the same thing. A successful mission gives is 3 probable towns, whereas a failed mission just says "well someone among these three is mafia but we don't know who ._." So I'd say: yes, gathering d1 info by getting a successful mission is the most important. Well, what you were saying earlier is that if I think 1 of Zona and Palmar is scum, it makes the most sense to actually take one of those players along. That would decrease our odds of victory, but increase our information potential. Yes?
Indeed. But this is only a viable tactic because you personally know that you are not scum. I'm not the current leader, so I would gain no additional information from you selecting one of Zona/Palmar to come with you, even assuming I shared your thought that 1 of Zona/Palmar/Radfield is scum, because *I* can't rule *you* out. So with my knowledge base, with your assumption of 1 of Zona/Palm/Rad being scum, I actually would not want you to pick 2 from that group, but rather, to pick me, since I myself know I am not scum, and I want to maximize our success rate.
Effectively, the leader's D1 is fundamentally different from a non-leader's D1, because the leader knows his alignment and is select the team. Since I'm currently not the leader, I think we should maximize win rate which will maximize info gained. You as the leader are not working with the same information I am, so you will have a different motivation.
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On December 27 2011 06:06 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2011 05:51 Blazinghand wrote:On December 27 2011 03:15 Toadesstern wrote:On December 27 2011 02:49 Blazinghand wrote:On December 27 2011 02:03 TruthBringer wrote:
Blazinghand, how exactly do you get a townread from someone at this point in this game?
Based on my assumptions, which I clearly stated in my previous post. Everybody is just A, B, . . . H, I right now. I am not sure that putting any more thought into it is going to cause me to rationally approve of A, B, C, but not A, B, D. It's the kind of read that is more solid if more people post analysis of what they think the optimal move is. I think it's reasonable for any team leader to chose himself as part of his team on this first day, since to him he is a confirmed town, in order to maximize our odds. In any case, I don't view people as A, B, C-- you know why? Currently people have already diverged somewhat in posting patterns, if only because it's christmastime and some people haven't had time to post yet. For example, I haven't seen a post from Zona, whereas I HAVE seen a post from you. This means to me, Zona is indeed just "player A who hasn't posted yet"... but you are not. You are a person with a history. You blindly yay-voted the first town leader on the basis of "Well forming reads on the first day is harddddddddddd (or impossible)". brb 3 hours quick question. What's more important for you: Getting information d1 based off our mission or getting a successful mission d1? I don't see why those would be mutually exclusive. In fact, I see those as the same thing. A successful mission gives is 3 probable towns, whereas a failed mission just says "well someone among these three is mafia but we don't know who ._." So I'd say: yes, gathering d1 info by getting a successful mission is the most important. Well, what you were saying earlier is that if I think 1 of Zona and Palmar is scum, it makes the most sense to actually take one of those players along. That would decrease our odds of victory, but increase our information potential. Yes?
That's exactly my point. From what blazinghand said earlier it looks like he wants us to sacrifice d1 for information gain because if he was suggesting that if rad thinks zona or palmar are scum then he should take one of them to get clear information. However that "clear" information is only information for rad because he might know his alignment but how am I supposed to know if he's not the spy while both zona and palmar are town? So that "clear" information is really only clear information for rad (if at all) and increases the chances of being blocked d1.
At the same time we could just get screwed big time if the waynie (idea = send rad + zona/palmar + waynie) turns out to be a spy. So even for rad the information isn't granted at all because he could end up thinking zona is a spy when sending zona along with him while in realitiy the 3rd guy was the spy.
To sum it up: I don't think there is anything like granted information out of d1 therefore I think we should try to minimize the chances of getting sabotaged therefore I don't like your "send zona or palmar to get clear information" at all. That's why I what blazinghand was about to suggest earlier.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 27 2011 06:16 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2011 06:06 Radfield wrote:On December 27 2011 05:51 Blazinghand wrote:On December 27 2011 03:15 Toadesstern wrote:On December 27 2011 02:49 Blazinghand wrote:On December 27 2011 02:03 TruthBringer wrote:
Blazinghand, how exactly do you get a townread from someone at this point in this game?
Based on my assumptions, which I clearly stated in my previous post. Everybody is just A, B, . . . H, I right now. I am not sure that putting any more thought into it is going to cause me to rationally approve of A, B, C, but not A, B, D. It's the kind of read that is more solid if more people post analysis of what they think the optimal move is. I think it's reasonable for any team leader to chose himself as part of his team on this first day, since to him he is a confirmed town, in order to maximize our odds. In any case, I don't view people as A, B, C-- you know why? Currently people have already diverged somewhat in posting patterns, if only because it's christmastime and some people haven't had time to post yet. For example, I haven't seen a post from Zona, whereas I HAVE seen a post from you. This means to me, Zona is indeed just "player A who hasn't posted yet"... but you are not. You are a person with a history. You blindly yay-voted the first town leader on the basis of "Well forming reads on the first day is harddddddddddd (or impossible)". brb 3 hours quick question. What's more important for you: Getting information d1 based off our mission or getting a successful mission d1? I don't see why those would be mutually exclusive. In fact, I see those as the same thing. A successful mission gives is 3 probable towns, whereas a failed mission just says "well someone among these three is mafia but we don't know who ._." So I'd say: yes, gathering d1 info by getting a successful mission is the most important. Well, what you were saying earlier is that if I think 1 of Zona and Palmar is scum, it makes the most sense to actually take one of those players along. That would decrease our odds of victory, but increase our information potential. Yes? Indeed. But this is only a viable tactic because you personally know that you are not scum. I'm not the current leader, so I would gain no additional information from you selecting one of Zona/Palmar to come with you, even assuming I shared your thought that 1 of Zona/Palmar/Radfield is scum, because *I* can't rule *you* out. So with my knowledge base, with your assumption of 1 of Zona/Palm/Rad being scum, I actually would not want you to pick 2 from that group, but rather, to pick me, since I myself know I am not scum, and I want to maximize our success rate. Effectively, the leader's D1 is fundamentally different from a non-leader's D1, because the leader knows his alignment and is select the team. Since I'm currently not the leader, I think we should maximize win rate which will maximize info gained. You as the leader are not working with the same information I am, so you will have a different motivation.
In other words, I was asked "what's more important for you (blazinghand)" but this isn't the same question as "if you were radfield, and responsible for picking teams, and you were completely sure that either zona or palmar was scum, and you're not scum, what's more important for you"
that being said, have you assembled a team?
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 27 2011 06:17 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2011 06:06 Radfield wrote:On December 27 2011 05:51 Blazinghand wrote:On December 27 2011 03:15 Toadesstern wrote:On December 27 2011 02:49 Blazinghand wrote:On December 27 2011 02:03 TruthBringer wrote:
Blazinghand, how exactly do you get a townread from someone at this point in this game?
Based on my assumptions, which I clearly stated in my previous post. Everybody is just A, B, . . . H, I right now. I am not sure that putting any more thought into it is going to cause me to rationally approve of A, B, C, but not A, B, D. It's the kind of read that is more solid if more people post analysis of what they think the optimal move is. I think it's reasonable for any team leader to chose himself as part of his team on this first day, since to him he is a confirmed town, in order to maximize our odds. In any case, I don't view people as A, B, C-- you know why? Currently people have already diverged somewhat in posting patterns, if only because it's christmastime and some people haven't had time to post yet. For example, I haven't seen a post from Zona, whereas I HAVE seen a post from you. This means to me, Zona is indeed just "player A who hasn't posted yet"... but you are not. You are a person with a history. You blindly yay-voted the first town leader on the basis of "Well forming reads on the first day is harddddddddddd (or impossible)". brb 3 hours quick question. What's more important for you: Getting information d1 based off our mission or getting a successful mission d1? I don't see why those would be mutually exclusive. In fact, I see those as the same thing. A successful mission gives is 3 probable towns, whereas a failed mission just says "well someone among these three is mafia but we don't know who ._." So I'd say: yes, gathering d1 info by getting a successful mission is the most important. Well, what you were saying earlier is that if I think 1 of Zona and Palmar is scum, it makes the most sense to actually take one of those players along. That would decrease our odds of victory, but increase our information potential. Yes? That's exactly my point. From what blazinghand said earlier it looks like he wants us to sacrifice d1 for information gain because if he was suggesting that if rad thinks zona or palmar are scum then he should take one of them to get clear information. However that "clear" information is only information for rad because he might know his alignment but how am I supposed to know if he's not the spy while both zona and palmar are town? So that "clear" information is really only clear information for rad (if at all) and increases the chances of being blocked d1. At the same time we could just get screwed big time if the waynie (idea = send rad + zona/palmar + waynie) turns out to be a spy. So even for rad the information isn't granted at all because he could end up thinking zona is a spy when sending zona along with him while in realitiy the 3rd guy was the spy. To sum it up: I don't think there is anything like granted information out of d1 therefore I think we should try to minimize the chances of getting sabotaged therefore I don't like your "send zona or palmar to get clear information" at all. That's why I what blazinghand was about to suggest earlier.
._. we only really gain information if the mission is successful. If the mission fails all we know is "someone of these three is scum" the point of that post is that Radfield is not acting optimally given his assumptions, not "oh we should do X" because I think Radfield's assumptions are wrong anyways. I'm just pointing otu that given what he's said, it's a terrible idea to pre-vote Yay on him and you should unvote.
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On December 27 2011 06:09 Radfield wrote:
If I select a team, can I later change my team? If yes I assume everyone will have to vote on it again. I just want to make sure I'm not locked in if I choose a team.
Why would I vote for a team if you have the ability to switch it up later?
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@rad:
2. If you are the current leader, suggest your team in the voting thread and use the following format: ##Team: A, B, C, D, E. You may propose a team in advance, but you may not change your team once you become leader.
So no, I don't think you can change your team.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 27 2011 06:23 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2011 06:09 Radfield wrote:
If I select a team, can I later change my team? If yes I assume everyone will have to vote on it again. I just want to make sure I'm not locked in if I choose a team. Why would I vote for a team if you have the ability to switch it up later?
Indeed. this is why TruthBringer should unvote.
also, sorry I think I mixed up toadesttern with TB briefly.
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yeah what I was talking about was that part:
On December 26 2011 17:03 Blazinghand wrote:
Because you, Radfield, know your own alignment. If you really think that there is 1 mafia in Zona/Palm/Rad, you should actually take one of Zona/Palm along with you! This is because you personally have the information that you're town, and can therefore say (assuming, again, that there's some distribution like that) that one of Zona/Palm is town. Therefore, you pick one of Zona/Palm, and you only have one pick left, and so you just need one solid-read town pick to create the following situation:
You're actually saying "well given your theory is right and I was in your spot you probably should send in either Zona or Palmar as well to get information" or am I interpreting this part wrong?
I can see how you criticize his theory of groups and I don't have a problem with that but what I quoted really sounds like "yeah let's send in a spy to get information".
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 27 2011 06:29 Toadesstern wrote:yeah what I was talking about was that part: Show nested quote +On December 26 2011 17:03 Blazinghand wrote:
Because you, Radfield, know your own alignment. If you really think that there is 1 mafia in Zona/Palm/Rad, you should actually take one of Zona/Palm along with you! This is because you personally have the information that you're town, and can therefore say (assuming, again, that there's some distribution like that) that one of Zona/Palm is town. Therefore, you pick one of Zona/Palm, and you only have one pick left, and so you just need one solid-read town pick to create the following situation:
You're actually saying "well given your theory is right and I was in your spot you probably should send in either Zona or Palmar as well to get information" or am I interpreting this part wrong? I can see how you criticize his theory of groups and I don't have a problem with that but what I quoted really sounds like "yeah let's send in a spy to get information".
What? No, the point here is that he has information, which is that he is town, right? So he should take his other 1/3rd chance from the same group as himself, rather than taking one from the other group, assuming his assumption of thirds is correct. However, were he to field such a team, a player with the same assumptions as him (rule of thirds) and different information (ie, you are not radfield) would always vote against his team, since from their point of view he's picking 2 people from a group of 3 that contains 1 mafia-- we're working with diff info than radfield is.
I'm saying that, given a successful mission to come, if you're radfield and you operate on radfield's assumptions, picking 1 from each group is sub-optimal.
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On December 27 2011 06:09 Radfield wrote:
If I select a team, can I later change my team? If yes I assume everyone will have to vote on it again. I just want to make sure I'm not locked in if I choose a team.
No, if you are the leader and you have a team then you cannot change that, unless that team is None but then you don't really have a team  If you guys want another team you have to nayvote the current team and go with the next leader who can then pick a new team.
That is, as long as Radfield is leader and his team is None he can propose a team and that team will be what is sent on mission. If Radfield proposes a team right now then that will be the team you guys are voting to send away on a mission, and he cannot change that team, only propose another team for next time he is leader.
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But zona or palmar are not a 1/3 chance given his information + theory are right. If rad's town and either palmar or zona are mafia than it's a 50% chance of sending mafia instead of the usual 1/3 which is increasing the chances of failure.
Also given that none of those 2 started posting yet there's very little to analyze to get a better than average pick.
Let's assume rad really is town.
In that case he either choses to pick one out of each group which would be (1/1) * (2/3) * (2/3) = 4/9 chance of getting town only. 1/1 because he knows he is town and does not have to pick someone from group1. 2/3 because there's 2 townies and 1 mafia per group (if his theory is right).
If he however picks one from group1 + a waynie it's going to be (1/1) * (1/2) * (4/6) = 4/12 chances of getting town only.
So picking zona or palmar is decreasing the chances of success given rad really is town and his groups/theory is right.
Sure the 2nd one will have a better informationgain but it's more likely to be sabotaged.
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/confirm
As far as I can tell, the ideal team for spies is one with just a single spy on it, then there's no guessing necessary for that spy, he/she can just sabotage. I suppose it's possible for the spy to hold back (for wifom?) but given that there's only 5 missions total, I don't think it's worth it...at least at this level of play.
No spies is ideal, we can chalk up one of the three necessary successes, and repeat the team in hopes that it was really a no-spy team.
Two (or three!) spies on a mission isn't actually that bad for us, either - because the spies either have to guess and possibly result in multiple sabotaging the same mission (or possibly allow a successful mission through), or they have to try to coordinate publicly, which we should have a chance of spotting.
If a leader is town and without information, there's two choices - include self int he team, or don't. Both choices actually provide the same chance of 1 spy on the mission...over half.
If the town leader includes him/herself, the chances are:
0 spies: 0.357142857143 chance
1 spies: 0.535714285714 chance
2 spies: 0.107142857143 chance
Which doesn't look that good, honestly.
But if the town excludes him/herself, the chances are:
0 spies: 0.178571428571 chance
1 spies: 0.535714285714 chance
2 spies: 0.267857142857 chance
3 spies: 0.0178571428571 chance
Which has a further reduced chance of 0 spies, so I guess including oneself as a town leader is better.
So I agree that Radfield should include himself on the team.
However, the other factor in the game is that a spy could be the leader - and then this person could pretty much do whatever the heck he/she wanted. 1 spy on the team? Done. Or maybe 2 spies on the team while trying to subtly tell the other spy not to sabotage? Dunno. On day 1 I doubt we can really tell with confidence if the leader is a spy or not, so I believe that Radfield should be the one to pick. On later days we may want to reject picks from suspected spy leaders.
Day 1, we have a 33% chance of a spy leader, and even if we get a town leader, half the time will still result in the ideal team for spies to sabotage...so we really need to analyze later in the game.
I don't like arguments that are based on hosts assigning and balancing teams by player reputation...we have no idea if this is actually happening (I almost never do this myself), and even if it was happening, this kind of "evidence" is rather unreliable.
To be honest I wish I could just push Radfield to RNG the other two members, but there's no way he can decisively prove to us that he actually did so...
So I guess these arguments about who to pick based on such flimsy arguments should take place Day 1.
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I'll read this tomorrow.
Anyone trying to communicate anything that resembles spy strategies is a spy, don't talk about it.
It might be worth it to try to put the three scummiest people on the first mission. If you can't understand why, please don't talk about it.
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Hrm.
Okay, because of part of what I posted, now I think it's a bad idea to include me in the mission. I will vote against a team that includes me.
Radfield, I believe I see the reason behind Palmar's suggestion for team-picking, so consider this option if you think it through and also see the rationale.
However, I don't like that he's basically declaring his desire not to contribute today, yet implies that he'll examine what we contribute today. Unless the ideal strategy is to not say anything of importance Day 1...but he should have said that specifically if he believed it.
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EPT
