Note: I moved TLDR to top to make it easy to see my current suspicions.
TLDR Anyway, my best conclusions. Again, bold=strong read, italic=lean, green=town, red=mafia, black=swings either way. Don't be offended if you're showing up as black/italic; it just means I don't have enough information on you. It may be due to lack of activity, or just uncertain behavior.
I think that at least 1 of the italic red is mafia, and I'm willing to bet that 2 are. It'd be a miracle if all 3 are, but I'm not 100% sure.
1.Trotske replaced by iGrok
2. Lucidity
3. chaos13
4. ghrur replaced by Barundar
5. Jackal58 Liquidite (Vanilla Townie) killed night 2
6. Varpulis
7. xtfftc
8. hiro protagonist - Overly Inquisitive Liquidite (Wandering townie) lynched day 2
9. Erandorr
10. Munk-E - Overly Inquisitive Liquidite (Wandering townie) modkilled day 2
11. RayzorFlash
12. QuickSilver7 - Paladin (Vigilante) killed night 1
13. darkponcho replaced by VisceraEyes
14. Vain
15. chaoser
16. GreYMisT replaced by InserT_FreQ Liquidite (Vanilla Townie) Killed night 2
17. JeeJee - Necrophiliac Liquidite (Miller) killed night 1
18. supersoft
19. wherebugsgo
20. Navillus
21. Curu
22. Foolishness
23. nard
24. BrownBear - replaced by Bumatlarge
25. Mig
26. Sevryn - Liquidite (Vanilla Townie), lynched day 1
27. Pyo
28. Kurumi
29. Palmar Liquidite (Vanilla Townie) killed night 2
30.DropBear Guardian Angel (Medic) Killed night 2
Alright, so I'm in the process of rereading posts/votes since day 1. This one popped out to me (it's just funny as hell in retrospect)
On August 20 2011 01:47 Curu wrote:
youngminii
Palmar why is DB scum over Sevyrn? He made a stupid policy post in Werewolves too and he was a Medic.
LOL
I guess when DB makes stupid policy posts he's always a medic.
Anyway, moving on to the actual content of this post...
I started with Day 1. My analysis this time around focuses on voting patterns and the reasons that players have given for votes. I'll try to spoiler as much as possible so this stays organized and minimizes scrolling.
The first interesting vote of the game was made by Sevryn, early in the first day:
+ Show Spoiler [Sevryn's vote post] +On August 19 2011 23:39 Sevryn wrote:
Right now DB is looking the scummiest imo and after what palmar did in Swedish house mafia I am inclined to trust him. That said if there is a good case against anyone else i would be willing to give DropBear another lookskie
## vote DropBear
+ Show Spoiler [vote analysis] +This comes off as scummy. In hindsight, we know that Sevryn was town, and that can actually be exemplified by some of his following posts (in particular, his calling out of Rayzorflash's ninja vote) Would I vote someone who wrote like this in a future game? Yeah, I'd probably vote them again. I'd certainly think twice about it, since I now know that townies are susceptible to coming off the wrong way, but I'd probably still consider it a scummy post.
Let's forget for a minute why the post is scummy. We all "knew" it was. So then, with the majority of us thinking that Sevryn's first post was scummy, what was the effect? How would that affect the way a townperson would approach the post/vote, and how would that affect a mafia member? Next post should help answer this.
+ Show Spoiler [first vote on Sevryn] + First up is Curu's vote. The reason this is an important vote is because it was the first serious vote of the game, on a post a lot of us thought was scummy (just look at our one-line reactions). Curu's vote came roughly 45 minutes after Sevryn's. With the vote came a clarifying question, though, which provides me with a town read on Curu.
+ Show Spoiler [Curu's posts before vote] +On August 20 2011 00:01 Curu wrote:Show nested quote +On August 19 2011 23:39 Sevryn wrote:
Right now DB is looking the scummiest imo and after what palmar did in Swedish house mafia I am inclined to trust him. That said if there is a good case against anyone else i would be willing to give DropBear another lookskie
## vote DropBear lol this is the scummiest vote I have ever seen. On August 20 2011 00:30 Curu wrote:
Naw
Thanks for drawing Sevyrn out though.
So Sevyrn, because Palmar was a Townie in a completely different game, you decide to trust him and sheep his vote blindly?
Note the times on these posts. Curu posted before he voted. This is another thing to keep in mind, it'll be of relevance in a moment. Bolded is the part that suggests to me that Curu genuinely voted Sevryn because he thought he was scummy. It's not much, and it's not conclusive, but at least it's there. Keep in mind that this vote and the explanation is too obvious/short to actually telegraph very much about a person's alignment other than the fact that they are potentially mafia. The vote will say little about a person's town alignment, and that's not really that important. A good mafia player will know this (and thus be able to blend in through a vote that is not suspicious) but a careless mafia player will not think about it and telegraph his/her alignment through the vote/vote post. This happens in vote #2 coming up.
+ Show Spoiler [Rayzor's vote and post] + Rayzor's vote comes BEFORE his post. This is really fishy. He votes 55 minutes after Sevryn posted, so not amazingly fast, but not slowly either. Sevryn calls out Rayzor (a hint that Sevryn is town, one that I think foolish picked up on but none of the rest of us did) and Rayzor posts an "explanation" 40 minutes after being called out, 2 hours after Sevryn's post. On August 20 2011 01:40 RayzorFlash wrote:Your post seemed like obvious scum to me, the scummiest post so far, and I will most likely be away for the rest of the day so I put in a vote against you... I'll check back later and see if I have to change it, but I doubt if I will :p Does he ask questions? Nope. Does he actually even intend to contribute? Nope. That, to me, is the hallmark of mafia. Rayzor votes Sevryn with no explanation, then when called out, provides an "explanation" that provides nothing new, and nothing other than, "you're scum and if you're not the majority target later I can change my vote anyway." A town player would be eager to contribute or discuss the lynch target. Rayzor here is more concerned about actually voting with the majority than anything else, as exemplified by his last sentence about checking back later to see if he has to change his vote. Selfish vote. Also, timing of the vote matters here. Note how he voted almost immediately after someone else did (Curu voted for Sevryn like 9 minutes before Rayzor did.) Obviously the first voter on someone always gets the most attention until someone else makes a post or a vote that is scummy. Rayzor was the second and didn't suffer from that type of attention.
Let's skip forward a bit here. Xt's and BB's votes were slightly scummy to me (xt voted on Palmar and BB voted on JeeJee), with BB's vote rather scummier than xt's. He just had a bad reason for voting JeeJee, but we don't really need to focus on this; there wasn't much information to go on at the time anyway. Supersoft voted for xt for pretty good reasoning, giving me an inclination toward a town read on him at that point. Once he posted defending Sevryn I became suspicious, but reading his future posts, that wore off. Navillus had a couple posts that were like ?? but nothing that really stood out.
+ Show Spoiler [Mig's vote] + On August 20 2011 08:03 Mig wrote:
Sevryn is by far the scummiest. His vote on DB had a ridiculously scummy reason behind it. After he got called out on it he back peddles and claims it was just a pressure vote. And he says he didn't see anything scummy about DB and his only reason for pressure voting was again because of something palmar did it swedish mafia. And then he says he took the vote off not really because he thought db was innocent but he didn't want to get lynched for bandwagoning lol. Sevryn is just lol scum.
OH HERRO SCUM! Foolish was the first and only person to pick up on this post for a while. Foolish's votepost itself wasn't very detailed, but his quick two follow up posts were. He clearly described why he suspected Mig and why he didn't suspect Palmar or Sevryn. His posts had valid points; Mig didn't bring anything new. He didn't mention any of the other candidates. He didn't discuss any of the various other targets/topics that were floating around at the time. He went straight for a Sevryn vote, and it flew under most of our radars because Sevryn was really scummy to us. This is the mark of a good mafia player. His vote was ONLY readable through meta. When I went back and read some of Mig's posts over the past couple days in his previous games, I came to find that Foolish's argument has a lot of merit. Mig doesn't play like this when he is town. At the time I saw this post, I didn't fully understand because I didn't know Mig's mafia history, his meta. Now, I have a little bit of a better understanding of it, and I agree with Foolish's initial suspicions. This post alone has made me value the use of meta arguments.
+ Show Spoiler [intermediate votecount] +On August 20 2011 17:13 sandroba wrote:
Day 1 Vote Count:
DropBear
Palmar
sevryn
Curu
RayzorFlash
Mig
Trotske
wherebugsgo
Munk-E
JeeJee
JeeJee
BrownBear
Palmar
Navilus
chaos13
Varpulis
Mig
Foolishness
xfttfc
supersoft
QuickSilver7 Here I present to you the first vote summary. In bold red are mafia I highly suspect, while in bold green are those I am (almost) certain are town. Italic green text is leaning town, italic red is leaning mafia. Black is lack of information/uncertainty. Three of the mafia reads I have today voted on Sevryn early, immediately after he made his mistake. This makes sense to me; mafia want to capitalize on a townie mistake to mask themselves. By voting a townsperson who has made themselves appear scummy, and then get that vote in as quickly as possible (but not first) a mafia player can blend in by appearing to contribute/vote for someone who is scummy without actually having to contribute anything. This is exactly what Rayzor, Mig, and Trotske did. Trotske was a little different in that he put suspicion on Foolish while voting Sevryn; his suspicion on Foolish was substantiated by his vote for DB as mayor. This made him appear less suspicious at the time, because it seemed as if he was attempting to contribute something. If you read his post, however, it's clear that he isn't actually contributing anything. Is he trying to feign contribution? Maybe. You decide. I'm putting his post in the next spoiler. BB, on the other hand, voted for JeeJee, and that too was scummy. His posts since then have painted him even scummier. Not much of a voting pattern on JeeJee though, since clearly everyone else correctly thought (I'm assuming here) that JeeJee was town. We have seen JeeJee flip, and so we all know that now.
+ Show Spoiler [Trotske's vote post] + On August 20 2011 08:40 Trotske wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 08:09 wherebugsgo wrote:
oh, forgot to add:
## vote Sevyrn
defend yourself, scum. I agree I think Sevryn is looking pretty scummy but I am curious what you guys think about Foolishness this is his one post after the game started. he agree's with dropbears mayor plan which gives one person the power to decide between tow people and chooses someone who hasn't been acting super pro town. This scream scummy to me, inactive and then comes in with a single line to vote on a not very town plan imo. so until he defends himself some more i'm goign to vote sevryn but foolishness needs to post something more or I am going to start pushing for his lynch. Something else to think about here is that Trotske doesn't actually support his sevryn vote. He just says that Sevryn looks scummy. He doesn't try to discuss Sevryn, he doesn't try to ask Sevryn questions. He votes with the bandwagon, and then attempts to justify his suspicion of Foolish by saying that he's a lurker. Keep in mind, this was AFTER several people said that lynching lurkers is a stupid idea. My scumread on Trotske started here.
+ Show Spoiler [Palmar's first serious vote] +On August 20 2011 22:20 Palmar wrote:BrownBear So, I decided to try a new tactic this game. Most towns spend day one arguing casually about policies and then lynch a scummy lurker. This is sometimes effective, sometimes kind of weird. This game I decided to just tear up the thread with some super-awesome tunneling on the first scummy fucker I found, and read responses by other people. There are two people who stick out to me as scummy from their reactions to my tunneling. Namely Sevryn and BrownBear. I feel more confident BrownBear is the scum of the two. There are quite a few things in BrownBear's logic that really scare me. First off, let's take a look at the post that initially raised my suspicions of him: Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 03:35 BrownBear wrote:On August 20 2011 03:21 supersoft wrote:
no. Posts like this make me sad. Put some effort into the game. Palmar/DropBear, I'm starting to believe at least one of you isn't, however this could just as easily be two townies chest-pounding day 1, at which point mafia just sits back and watches the fireworks as one or both get lynched, town wastes time, and they don't have to do jack shit. Point being, Palmar, we know you want us to lynch DropBear. DropBear, we know you want us to not lynch you. Arguing about it just takes up space. So, DropBear, if you want us to not lynch you, name someone who you think would be a better lynch target, and why. If no better alternative presents itself, I'll vote for you over a no-lynch, and you're the only person really with votes currently on you, so I highly recommend giving us some reasons why your neck should be spared. And Palmar... you keep making statements like "nard's totally setting me up he's scum" or "dropbear's scum lets investigate by lynching him" without ANY backup. "Your first post was a question to mods ppl know YOU MUST BE COVERING YOUR TRACKS OMG MAFIA" does not constitute evidence. If DropBear's gonna be active and making plans, I'm inclined to NOT lynch him day 1, because it means one less inactive jackass dragging us down. Plus, the more active he is, the sooner he'll slip up if he actually is scum. Of course, lynching is preferable to no-lynching in 99.99% of cases, so I'll vote for him in the end if nobody else comes forth. But I want to see a better case from you regardless. Finally, DB's plan: in a perfect world, it'd be great, but I don't think an unofficial mayor will have the power necessary to break ties of more than one vote. Also, how do we know this mayor will be pro-town? How do we know you are pro-town? How do we know if ANYONE'S pro-town at this point? We don't really, so I think an unofficial "mayor" will just serve to clog the thread further, will draw med-protects away from people who really need them like blues, and will end up not benefitting town in any major way. I immediately called him out on the scum logic in his posts. I pointed out that one wouldn't have to make a big stretch to understand the bolded sentence as a free pass to anyone who was being active in the thread. Which conveniently enough also clears BB of any suspicion. He also mentions the possibility of two townies just shouting at each other. The reason this jumps so much out to me is that I used exactly the same logic as scum on day 1 in SNMMII as scum. I pointed out that two loudmouths were probably just townies shouting at each other and then I suggested that the real threat are the inactive people. Deflecting lynches onto inactives is mafia's favorite way of playing day 1.BrownBear's defense of this, is that I'm twisting his words. But can anyone honestly says he understands the bolded sentence in any other way than BrownBear wants to kill off inactive people over people who are active, because the active people will reveal themselves as scum at some point. Next post, after demanding contribution from me: Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 06:52 BrownBear wrote:On August 20 2011 04:05 Palmar wrote:On August 20 2011 03:53 BrownBear wrote:
I don't think I have... please quote where you're getting that from.
The only thing I can think of is in my large post, where I said if DB is gonna be active I'm less inclined to lynch him. This means I'm less inclined to lynch DB right now, NOT that I'm "heavily advocating lynching a lurker". Please don't put words into my mouth. Here you go: On August 20 2011 03:35 BrownBear wrote:
If DropBear's gonna be active and making plans, I'm inclined to NOT lynch him day 1, because it means one less inactive jackass dragging us down. Plus, the more active he is, the sooner he'll slip up if he actually is scum. Of course, lynching is preferable to no-lynching in 99.99% of cases, so I'll vote for him in the end if nobody else comes forth.
Well, I read that as any scummy asshole with a plan is going to get a free bye on day 1, because you want to lynch someone inactive? Or does, the free pass on making plans and blanket statements to avoid the lynch only extend to a specific pool of people? I asked for something of substance and this is what I got? Oh, you.  Ok, something you've pulled out of my reasoning that really just wasn't there. You're saying I want to lynch someone inactive. Not necessarily true. Implied, maybe, but NOT what I said. Again, you really need to stop putting words in people's mouths. What I said there, and what anyone who took 5 seconds to think rationally got out of that sentence before you started spewing shit all over it, is that regardless of what I think about DropBear's alignment (and for the record, I think he's more green than not. Scummy, possibly, but not confirmed scum), I want to see people post more. We're on only 17 pages halfway through the first day, which is kind of sad. I want more content. DropBear's providing it. I'm for lynching any of the semi-actives - that is, the people who are just contributing one liners and sheeping along to do the bare minimum to fly under the radar. Inactives = people who haven't noticed the game's started yet, people in different time zones who are sleeping, or people who don't care about the game. No reason wasting a vote on them - modkills will get them soon enough. The real area where mafia are probably lurking are the semi-actives - the guys who have posted a few times to be able to say "hey, I was here", but haven't contributed anything of substance or worth to the discussion. That doesn't include DropBear right now. At the very least, he's provoking discussion both about his silly fake-mayor plan, and about whether or not he's red. He's defending himself and providing some alternate ideas. (Although, DropBear, "I will do so if it becomes necessary"? Really? That's not doing you any favors, bro). Right now, my list of semi-actives include: wherebugsgo, hiro protagonist, Foolishness, and JeeJee (when you read his posts, they don't contribute nearly as much as they do ask questions that go unanswered). I'm open to adding more to that list tho. So let's start talking about those guys! JeeJee is the most suspicious to me right now: He's posted the most, but I see not all that much in his posts... it looks to me as though he's trying to post while not adding anything of value to town discussion. Just a gut feeling, but I still feel a lot better about lynching him than I do DropBear.Anyway, long story short: You read things out of my post that didn't exist, those things are the entire basis of your case against me, your case against me sucks, gg, try harder. ##Vote: JeeJee The first sentence is interesting. He makes a point that he did not say what I called him out for, yet he implied it? What's the difference? The mindset he's working in is the same. I ask that everyone reads the post above carefully, and preferably often. Look at what he's saying. He's basically throwing a one-line accusation towards JeeJee in an attempt to divert the discussion off himself and DropBear. The bolded sentence is another one of interest. I don't actually understand how he's going to scumhunt if he actively states that "mafia is amongst the semi-actives". Well sherlock, if you tell us that you're going for semi-active people, won't the mafia just stop being semi-active? And note that he himself is definitely not amongst the semi-actives, so he cannot be mafia, by his theory. This case against JeeJee is basically just a throw-away case, BB knows well enough that JeeJee is not going to get lynched based on this case, and he's happy to look like he's not supporting a town lynch while throwing an off-vote on some random "semi-active". Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 09:55 BrownBear wrote:
It's cute that you tell everyone I'm wrong without explaining exactly why I'm wrong.
lern2backupyouraccusations Interesting that he calls out for other people to back up their accusations, yet your entire case against JeeJee is: Show nested quote +So let's start talking about those guys! JeeJee is the most suspicious to me right now: He's posted the most, but I see not all that much in his posts... it looks to me as though he's trying to post while not adding anything of value to town discussion. Just a gut feeling, but I still feel a lot better about lynching him than I do DropBear. Re-read his posts. Look at them from the point of view he is scum, understand what motivations he might have for posting like this if he's town. I think we have a great lynch candidate here town. BrownBear is scum
##Vote BrownBear Here we have Palmar's vote. In contrast to some other players' votes, Palmar has reasoned his vote out well, and provided substantial thought-out analysis of his target. I saw this vote initially, and it gave me a townread on Palmar. However, I did not take his vote seriously because of the way he had been spamming. I regret not taking Palmar seriously, but the doubts I began to feel on day 2 stemmed from my frustration with his posting habits. At the very least, it serves as an example now as to what makes a good vote/voting post. Contrast this with Sevryn's, Rayzor's, Mig's, Brownbear's, and Trotske's opening vote posts. Sevryn was town, but he just made himself look scummy with that first vote.
+ Show Spoiler [BB's second vote post] +On August 21 2011 01:37 BrownBear wrote:And since I should practice what I preach and back up my votes (that much is true, Palmar) here's my thoughts on our friendly neighborhood sevryn: Show nested quote +On August 19 2011 23:39 Sevryn wrote:
Right now DB is looking the scummiest imo and after what palmar did in Swedish house mafia I am inclined to trust him. That said if there is a good case against anyone else i would be willing to give DropBear another lookskie
## vote DropBear His first post in game, seems rather silly, and is the post he's caught a lot of flak over. To jump in and insta-bandwagon is usually a poor choice. Also, trusting players based off of previous games is a poor choice in general. This looks to me like someone seeing an easy early bandwagon and hopping on it, hoping they can ride out the rest of the day cycle under the radar. Pretty obviously he gets called out on it quickly, and then after a few posts this happens: Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 03:06 Sevryn wrote:On August 20 2011 02:46 DropBear wrote:OK wtf Palmar? I actually don't understand. What is your problem with me exactly? Nearly all of your posts are one liners that are some variation of "Kill DropBear". On August 19 2011 22:35 Palmar wrote:you guys are fucking lazy and boring. Why not just bandwagon everything I say? that's a good plan. Go read DB's first post in PTP2 where he was town. He's like 1000 trillion times more careful and vague in these opening posts than last time. Here's his PTP2 opening post for comparison: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=10466682He's careful to just give advice that cannot possibly rub anyone the wrong way. SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM The "not safe" post you link included a joke about Harry Potter, a complete throwaway vote on kitaman27 and a joke about sandroba's plans. My first post in this thread advocated forcing people to change their vote, how is that so incredibly safe compared PTP2? I don't actually understand your case, I will talk to you more if you actually come up with something.
On August 19 2011 18:14 supersoft wrote:On August 19 2011 18:00 Palmar wrote:
how about putting your vote on dropbear?
##Vote DropBear i just filtered him, and he just posted one policypost and no thoughts about other people. Why not pressuring him a bit. Can't be bad. ##Vote DropBearand before anyone jumps on me like: "wtf he bandwagoned blablabla" - like Curu did in AA; I am NOT one of the players, that bandwagons on anyone random with a bad explanation only to show up the next day like "hey guise sorry what happened, oh you lynched scum - yea well I had stuff to do." I will be there at the end of the day and put my vote on scum. My posts are 2 pages after the game started. 2 pages. Half the players hadn't even posted yet and most of the ones who did posted nothing other than "/confirm". How do you expect me to have reads on people before they have even posted, through divination? Time travel? What's with the random defence of your actions at the end? It's like you know it's a stupid idea, but you're doing it anyway. Alright since I don't see anything scummy about dropbear at this point I'm going to take my pressure vote off of him. In swedish palmer asked me to put a pressure vote on someone who turned out to be scum. Because pressure votes don't work near as well if you say its a pressure vote I made up a bullshit reason to vote in that gmae like I did this game. LOL PRESSURE VOTE JAYKAY GUYZ. Basically, I call bullshit on this for a few reasons: He says he "made up a bullshit reason" but that's not how you properly pressure vote. You pressure vote by building a legitimate case against a guy, try to get others to agree with you, then see how he reacts when there's pressure on him. Not by going "oh palmars right he was right in previous games ALL RIGHT THEN AUTOVOTEBOTS ROLL OUT". It was pretty obvious your vote on DB had no real teeth behind it, as was shown by you backing off the instant someone yelled at you. I don't think you care about catching scum, you just want to find a hole to hide in for the rest of the day. Since then, basically nothing except feebly trying to defend his "pressure vote", and nothing since like page 15 or so. Summary: He definitely wants to hide under the radar. THe instant he got caught in the spotlight he shriveled up and backed off. This to me speaks scum or traitor. Either one is a worthy lynch candidate, and is a hell of a lot better than our usual "fuck around and then lynch a random guy" first day strategy, as palmar so succinctly put it. Vote Sevryn. Hmmm...Okay, nothing immediately popped out to me on this one. On a second read, I felt like there were some things put in here deliberately to hide behind. First: And since I should practice what I preach and back up my votes (that much is true, Palmar) here's my thoughts on our friendly neighborhood sevryn: Red part=admission he basically voted for JeeJee for no reason. Scummy. Second: Since then, basically nothing except feebly trying to defend his "pressure vote", and nothing since like page 15 or so.
Summary: He definitely wants to hide under the radar. THe instant he got caught in the spotlight he shriveled up and backed off. This to me speaks scum or traitor. Either one is a worthy lynch candidate, and is a hell of a lot better than our usual "fuck around and then lynch a random guy" first day strategy, as palmar so succinctly put it. Feebly trying to defend: this is classic illogical mafia thinking. Guy defends himself, it says nothing about his alignment. How he defends himself is more important. This is why I was up for a vote switch near the end of the day. Sevryn's defense of himself appeared to be genuine, and that became more clear to me very close to the lynch deadline. By then, of course, it was too late. The second part: summary text. Just fluff. If you read BB's post carefully, you see that all of it is regurgitated stuff from like 3 other people, most notably Curu, who reiterated the case for Sevryn right before BB posted. IMO, BB saw the opportunity to shadow Curu's call for Sevryn's lynch. In the process, he simply parroted Curu. Again, nothing blatantly scummy, but generally things that are blatantly scummy are probably townies fucking up by making mistakes (as I've come to learn by experience now...thanks hiro, sevryn :p )
+ Show Spoiler [Sevryn's real vote] +On August 21 2011 05:13 Sevryn wrote:Rayzorflash im calling you out. Most of his posts before I become the lynch target are speculation on what mafia would or would not want and i view this is as slightly scummy. Then he ninja votes on me and when called out Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 01:40 RayzorFlash wrote:On August 20 2011 01:07 Sevryn wrote:
Nice stealth vote ray Your post seemed like obvious scum to me, the scummiest post so far, and I will most likely be away for the rest of the day so I put in a vote against you... I'll check back later and see if I have to change it, but I doubt if I will :p and then this last post Show nested quote +On August 21 2011 04:55 RayzorFlash wrote:
Town right now loses NOTHING by lynching Sev. If he flips red, we immediately know who to go after next, i.e. the people defending him, or the people trying to get someone else lynched first. If he flips green, we can target the ones who have most aggressively tried to get him lynched. Its a win-win situation. Yes you do lose something you lose a townie when i flip green and going after the people who most aggressively tried to get me lynched is all WIFOM. Also MIG just from his meta he has normally caught the entire scum team by now yet hes nowhere to be found. ##vote RayzorFlash This was the post that began to mess with my head. Until this point I was sure Sevryn was mafia. Then he came along and did this, and I was like...whoa...he might not be mafia! Decent arguments throughout this post. He also adds that tidbit toward the end about Mig. When I read this, it explained to me what Sevryn had been afk doing; he had been coming up with decent analysis to post, to contribute, rather than sit around and "feebly defend" himself. After this point I began considering Rayzor as the lynch rather than Sevryn, but I was doubtful of our ability to push that to completion.
+ Show Spoiler [towncred to xtfftc] +On August 21 2011 05:54 xtfftc wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2011 05:44 Trotske wrote:
The next page after I made my post calling Foolishness inactive he posts quite a few times while not addressing my post at all. Your post was stupid. DropBear's campaign for mayor is something worth analysing but it's not like it was going to happen, ever. Foolishness was simply acting funny. If you want to go against Foolishness, don't base your post around such a worthless argument. Also, Supersoft, after crying out about how I was avoiding casting my vote for Sevryn, we are facing the possibility of a non-linch due to you (and Jackal) unvoting. I realize that this has little to do with voting, but I feel like no one else is going to go back this far, so I felt like I needed to point this post out. This is the post that made me think xt was town for a while. I still am unsure on xt; I tend to flip between slightly red and slightly green on him. I think this is worth a second look. If anyone can find or suggest analysis that will give us a consistent read on xt, that'd be great.
+ Show Spoiler [vain's ninja vote] + Right in the middle of the Rayzor switch, Vain voted for Sevryn. No legible reason whatsoever: On August 21 2011 10:31 Vain wrote:
Ok, i think i'm gonna vote on Rayzorflash. I just don't believe a scum would vote that fast. No, wait scrap that.Sevryn voted as 3rd for DropBear. you can say what you want about his defence but he only started with the "pressure vote" after people asked what he was doing and that counts to me more than anything.
I've mentioned this before, and that's that vain has gone under the radar despite many of us calling him out on being scummy. We should look at him at some point soon.
Nothing else interesting in terms of votes really happened day 1. Vote summary:
+ Show Spoiler [day 1 rayzor vote] +On August 21 2011 10:19 GMarshal wrote:Day 1 Vote Count:
DropBear(0) Palmarsevryn(12) CuruRayzorFlash
Mig
Trotskewherebugsgo
Munk-EJeeJeeBrownBear Kurumi
ErandorrVarpulis
GreYMisT
supersoft
hiro protagonist
Jackal58 xtfftc Pyo Lucidity PalmarJeeJee(0) BrownBearPalmar(1) Naviluschaos13
VarpulisMig(1) Foolishness
chaoser xfttfc(1) supersoft
QuickSilver7
supersoft BrownBear(2) PalmarBarundarnard Navillus Navillus(0) KurumiRayzorFlash(8) Sevryn Jackal58 supersoft Foolishness Trotske Navillus hiro protagonist wherebugsgo Hiro Protagonist(0) DropBear chaoser(2) Mig DropBear Less than 1 hour left, Only 28 people have voted, which leaves 2 potential modkills. Dont make me modkill anyone... Only reddish vote to me on Rayzor was Trotske. It's certainly possible he isn't red, anyway. Mig came in toward the end with a vote on Sevryn.
Alright. Day 2 vote analysis.
The following vote summary is important. I'm not going to go step by step with day 2 votes very much, but here's the vote summary before day 2 ended, when Mig was a serious lynch candidate.
+ Show Spoiler +On August 23 2011 07:35 GMarshal wrote:Day 2 Vote-count Mig(6) Foolishness
chaoser
Jackal58
DropBear
Varpulis
Curu chaoser (1) MigBrownBear(1) PalmarFoolishness(1) chaos13Palmar(0) VisceraEyesHiro Protagonist(2) RayzorFlash VisceraEyesxtfftc(4) supersoft
hiro protagonistVisceraEyes wherebugsgo BrownBear Vain(0) wherebugsgoA little over 28 hours remain in the day. Bunch of people need to vote still, Mig leading the wagon with 6 votes, but is still short of a majority
Then, this one is even better:
+ Show Spoiler [5 min, crossed out votes included] +On August 24 2011 10:54 GMarshal wrote:Day 2 Vote-count Mig(5) Foolishness
chaoser
Jackal58
DropBear
Varpulis
Curu Barundar
KurumiPyo Palmar
hiro protagonist
Palmarchaoser (0) MigBrownBear(0) PalmarFoolishness(0) chaos13 Palmar(0) VisceraEyesHiro Protagonist(13) RayzorFlashVisceraEyesCuru
Varpulis
wherebugsgoKurumixtfftc VainJackal58MigLucidity hiro protagonistnardxtfftc(2) supersoft
hiro protagonistVisceraEyes wherebugsgo BrownBearCuru
CuruVain(0) wherebugsgonard(2) GreYMisTErandorrDropBear(1) MigBarundarhiro protagonistsupersoft(1) DropBear
chaos13
CuruRayzorFlash (1) DropBearchaos13(0) hiro protagonist
Palmar
Mig
Jackal58A little over 5 minute remain in the day. Bunch of people need to vote still, Hiro leading the wagon with 13 votes, but is still short of a majority, (14 votes) Check it out. I think that not a single mafia member voted Mig all day yesterday. I italicized my leans, but even that I'm just unsure about because there isn't enough information. I'm confident that everyone who voted for Mig yesterday was town.
I'll continue to add vote analysis as I get time, and as demand wishes. If this isn't helpful, or if something confuses you about my thought process, let me know.
Also, criticize my thoughts/analysis! Unless, of course, it's too much to read...lol.
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EPT
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/lfy61.jpg)
