[SC2 E-Sports] Bubble or Wave?

deadjawa

United States179 Posts

June 20 2011 00:44 GMT

Koreans willingly joining foreign teams. Foreign teams going to Korea to participate in GSTL. Starcraft progamers of all nationalities travelling to the four corners of the globe to participate in tournaments with ever growing prize pools and viewership. What does it all mean?

It has been said that the Korean word for bubble means “untapped potential.” In the West, however, the word has an entirely different connotation. “The Tech Bubble,” “The Housing Bubble” – these phrases negatively describe the spectacular failure of various overhyped, oversold, and overbought ideas in recent history. So what does it mean when someone talks about the idea of a “Starcraft 2 Bubble?” For some context, lets talk briefly about a conversation between Sheth and Mr. Bitter during Sheth’s 25 hour streaming marathon:

***Note I am paraphrasing to the best of my ability. I don’t remember the exact words that were said***

Mr Bitter: “Some day you are going to be in the Starcraft 2 Hall of Fame”
Sheth: “I hope so, wouldn’t that be cool? I’d love to be a progamer for a number of years then retire and make a living as a Starcraft coach. But I don’t know if that’s going to be possible, a lot of people are talking about how Starcraft 2 is in the middle of a bubble”
Mr. Bitter: “Is it a bubble or is it a wave?”
Sheth: “I don’t know, I hope it’s a wave.”

So, are we all witnessing short, intense bubble period in the history of Starcraft? Or is this the beginning of a paradigm-shifting wave? Will we look back on this period in time longingly remembering the “good old days,” or will we look back and laugh about how short-sighted we were to not embrace the future potential of E-Sports? Only time will tell for sure – but this thread seeks to highlight arguments on both sides and point out some major questions which will help indicate which path SC2 is heading down.

Arguments in Favor of a Bubble

Identifying a bubble before it pops is extremely difficult. But there are some common themes behind recent bubbles which give us some areas to investigate. All recent major economic collapses have had impossibly high expectations from the general populace, while the underlying fundamentals are surprisingly weak. What are some areas in SC2 where this disconnect could be happening?

The Bubble Player Pool

This concept is fairly abstract, so the best way I can describe this problem is by my own experiences. I am a Diamond League Zerg player. To most players on Teamliquid I am impossibly bad – and honestly I would largely agree with that assessment. I make mistake after mistake when I play. But to my newbie friends (who I convinced to buy SC2 from playing WoW) I am a god on the battlefield.

Lower tiers of competition tend to cannibalize themselves in E-Sports

The steep learning curve of Starcraft is not the main problem, however. The real problem is the cannibalistic nature of getting better. In other games, like WoW, if you are bad at the game you can relegate yourself to a support role and play with those who are more competent. In SC2 this is just not possible – you have to lose a ton of games before you start winning. There is just no other way to learn. This “grind” has victimized most of my friends who initially bought the game with high hopes. I am sure that this experience has been shared by many – the in game indicator has shown the number of ladder games taking place slowly decaying over time as players get frustrated with losing. The tiered league system has helped this immensely – but the game is still not where it needs to be to sustain its growth.

In order for Starcraft (and E-Sports) to truly grow – game design needs expand the player pool by keeping new players’ interest for longer.

The Bubble Tournament Finances
It takes a lot of money to house, feed, and buy plane tickets hundreds of progamers (and their support staff) all over the world. Tournaments also need to reserve infrastructure such as satellite trucks, convention centers, and pay out generous prize pools in order to be successful. Without these expensive items there are no high-profile tournaments. Without high-profile tournaments, there is no E-Sports. So, the financial sustainability of the tournaments themselves is of utmost importance to the growth E-Sports community.

Hell, its about the money

To analyze whether the current set of prominent SC2 tournaments are sustainable lets do a thought experiment. Knowing what we know about stream viewership and attendance lets try to guess at the financial sustainability of each of the major SC2 tournaments below:

***This exercise is for the sake of discussion only, I know absolutely nothing of the inner workings of any of these institutions***

TSL

Replay only tournament keeps costs low. They really only had to pay for casters, prize pool, and travel for T-zain and Naniwa, and probably received a lot of income from their 60,000+ stream viewers. Whoever manages Teamliquid as a business deserves a huge pat on the back. They have consistently put out a great product while not overextending themselves financially.

Deadjawa’s credit rating: AAA (great)

MLG

Someone had to do it eventually

The financial situation of MLG is a hard one to figure out - I would love to see their financial books. They clearly spent a ton of money on satellite trucks, travel, convention halls, and gaming equipment but they also have some big sponsors to offset. There’s really no way of really knowing how financially sound the company is - but they are probably not making money hand over fist given their large expenses + staff.

Deadjawa’s credit rating: BBB+ (good)

GSL

The financial stability of the GSL is a bit worrisome to me. They have their own studio, + support staff, and pay out huge prize pools. While E-Sports is clearly much bigger in Korea than it is here, it doesn’t seem like SC2 is nearly as big in Korea as Brood Wars. They do have some big sponsors, but how patient will they be if SC2 does not reach the popularity of Brood Wars in Korea?

Deadjawa’s credit rating: BBB- (ok)

NASL

NASL does not have the benefit of the big sponsors of MLG and GSL, and does not have the big viewership of TSL, yet its prize pool is $100,000. They do have a mysterious benefactor, but mysterious benefactors usually don’t give away money for a loss for a sustained period. I would love to see this tournament continue to get better and better (it has throughout the season). But I am quite concerned that they wont have a chance given their reliance on a single sponsor

Deadjawa’s credit rating: CCC (not so great)

We can see that a lot of the big SC2 tournaments are highly dependent on big sponsorships. Given the mercurial nature of sponsors who are always looking for “the next big thing” to throw money at - there is cause concern. It’s likely that some of these tournaments may not survive that long in their current form. What damage that will cause to the SC2 E-Sports community is a big unknown.

In order to ensure its continued growth, the community should focus on creating financially conservative and sustainable events.

Arguments in Favor of a Wave

It is equally difficult to predict when a wave of change is going to wash ashore and permanently shift a paradigm in society. Can E-Sports continue to grow at its current pace? Is it possible that someday E-Sports can be as big as other sports in the West? At this point, no one can say for sure but lets look at some arguments for this idea.

The Wave of International Trade
It is very interesting to see the Keynesian argument against international trade manifest itself in the Starcraft Community. Most famously, CatZ has argued that the NASL should focus on developing North American players over inviting Koreans. While this argument may be compelling to some, the truth is that Korean participation in foreign leagues has greatly improved their quality.

The Koreans are changing the way the world looks at E-Sports

The free trade of ideas throughout the E-Sports community has, no doubt, benefitted everyone. The best ideas get propogated and expanded, while the bad ideas get stomped out. For example, foreign players have been given “the Korean model” for how to improve and to turn E-Sports truly professional. Inversely the Koreans have had a gigantic worldwide market opened to market their skills. Will foreign players ever compete toe to toe with Koreans at international events? I think so, but they will definitely have to work hard to improve.

The paradigm shift toward truly worldwide tournaments is a beneficial trend. It could create a brand new type of competition that ignores boundaries – and be one of the world’s first truly sustained international sporting events. The World Cup and the Olympics only occur once every four years. Sure, some sports like Baseball and Cricket have international events more often – but usually countries that participate in these events share a similar culture. There is no shared culture in E-Sports – simply a love of computer gaming.

If the creation of a brand new medium that brings people across the world together is not exciting to you, I don’t know what is.

What other sporting event has crowds cheering for competitors from clear across the world

The Wave of Developer Support

The success of the Brood Wars E-Sports scene came as a shock to everyone, especially Blizzard. By the time it was clear that E-Sports were big in Korea, development of the game was finished. Blizzard had already focused their attention to other products. Because of this, there never was any support for competitive gaming built into Starcraft 1. All of this has changed with the development of Starcraft 2.

Our hopes lie with them

Starcraft 2 has shifted the paradigm of E-Sports game development. For the first time, Blizzard has developed an RTS game with a primary focus on developing its E-Sports capability. The polish and balance of the multiplayer at release was really unprecedented. Additionally, after release Blizzard has been able to patch in new E-Sports capabilities, actively answering community concerns. With two full expansions coming up more exciting features and capabilities will surely be added. These new features will be tailored to what is working in the community and will surely not be limited simply to new units and abilities.

The support of Blizzard throughout the growth of Starcraft 2’s E-sports scene will greatly improve the ability of the community to retain and grow its members.

Things to Look For

While the community often focuses on minutae such as game balance and in-game manners, there are a couple of big unanswered questions which will play a large role in determining the future of Starcraft 2 E-Sports. Keep an eye on these things to get a pulse on whether we are in a bubble or on top of a wave:

Will there be new features in Heart of the Swarm that support bringing the plethora of E-Sports tournies and products closer to the masses of casual gamers?
Will there be improvements in Heart of the Swarm that make it easier for casual gamers to stay involved in the game?
Will foreign gamers step up to the challenge, organizing and practicing as hard as the Koreans?
Will the current set of major tournaments be able to survive and thrive financially?

Conclusion

No one can say for sure what the future holds for Starcraft 2 and the greater E-Sports community. But it is clear that we are on the cusp of something big, whether it’s sustained or fleeting. One thing is for sure though, it’s an exciting time to be involved in the Starcraft world.

The conversation continues in the posts below.

Sprouter

United States1724 Posts

June 20 2011 00:49 GMT

the only way to keep the river of esports flowing is to get more people interested in it. tell your friends, tweet, facebook, etc.

atombombforpeace

United States408 Posts

June 20 2011 00:57 GMT

In regards to the player pool, I don't think it matters how many people actually play and/or get better in SC2. I think the biggest test is how willing people are to watch Starcraft 2, even if they don't play it. Lots of major sports have a large viewer base that has never touched the game. In order of SC2 to grow, it needs to have a certain spectator appeal to get people who don't play the game much, or at all, to watch and follow the scene.

Tarot

Canada440 Posts

June 20 2011 00:59 GMT

So far so good. I think the biggest thing to look forward to is the next 2 expansions, which now looking back on it, was a really good idea (from an esports view). Each time a blizzard game expansion comes out, all the gaming sites heavily cover it and it'll really help bring in more viewers to the scene.

DuB phool

United States1003 Posts

June 20 2011 01:00 GMT

All I can say is that it had BETTER not be a bubble. A "pop" would leave me with very little to do in my free time. :D

Also, I wish that leagues would actually tell us how well they're doing. Much of your Bubble Tournament Finances section was just conjecture, which is really all we have. Knowing how stable these things are seems like it would be a great indicator of the state of ESPORTS.

Cool article, by the way. Quite professional-looking.

hunts

United States2113 Posts

June 20 2011 01:04 GMT

Wow really great writeup! I really want to see SC2 succeed as an esport and not just be a bubble.I really think as the pros get better and better and the games get more interesting due to higher skill levels more people will be willing to watch. Along with the pro players getting better I think more comentators are also improving, so hopefully soon there will be more commentators actually on the same level as tasteless/artosis/day9 to also make more tournaments more interesting to watch. Hopefully the sponsors stick around for things to really pick up, if they're actually not making enough money now.

Gamegene

United States8308 Posts

June 20 2011 01:06 GMT

I think we're asking the wrong question here.

It's very easy to say SC2 E-Sports is a huge bubble just based on the bigger tournaments, but I would argue that it's primarily concentrated in the large number of online tournaments with small cash payouts. The infrastructure is more financially sound since the prizes are smaller and the costs are infinitely cheaper online, guaranteeing that there will be another.

The question should be: Are the bigger Live LAN Tournaments going to burst?

Dakkas

2550 Posts

June 20 2011 01:07 GMT

I'm not going to take a side in this but I would like to say that it is an excellent post you made with great details, some of which completely passed me by. I am very interested in seeing how this develops

kaspi

Czech Republic3 Posts

June 20 2011 01:08 GMT

Interesting post, but I'd like to point out that some people who watch the SC2 tournaments and player streams in fact do not own the game and never played it. That might be a low percentage in western countries, but how many people among the BW audience in Korea are really active SC1 or SC2 players?

I think that the main goal for SC2 is to grow to those proportions and try to suck in as many people as BW had. From that point the growth would be justified and sustainable.

Playing the game makes the bond only stronger, but it's not necessarily the ultimate condition to enjoy e-sports. People who don't play the game are less likely to go to events and buy online passes, but they are most likely watching the adverts on stream at the very least.

Edit: A lot of people had faster fingers than me. So to reflect upon their posts:
1) The credit rating is based only on outside perceptions, but nice nevertheless
(I just think the OP's arguments for wave are stronger)
2) I agree with the thesis that you need spectators who're not necessarily players too
3) I agree that the community tournaments are a big step toward the fulfillment of our wishes for the wave to be the case

Caos2

United States1728 Posts

June 20 2011 01:08 GMT

#10

Great post, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Highways

Australia6103 Posts

June 20 2011 01:10 GMT

#11

Hopefully it's not a bubble.

But the lack of new NA/EU upcoming players is worrying. In Korea there are so many new faces coming in (eg. DRG, Line, MMA). Whereas in the foreign scene (particularly NA), there are no new faces at all.

Gamegene

United States8308 Posts

June 20 2011 01:13 GMT

#12

On June 20 2011 10:10 Highways wrote:
Hopefully it's not a bubble.

But the lack of new NA/EU upcoming players is worrying. In Korea there are so many new faces coming in (eg. DRG, Line, MMA). Whereas in the foreign scene (particularly NA), there are no faces at all.

That's an easy thing to say.
That's because everybody watches the GSL. There are plenty of players who are at Dreamhack for example making impressive debuts.
And it's not like any of them are "new"; nobody paid attention to them until they became good.

Battleaxe

United States843 Posts

June 20 2011 01:14 GMT

#13

This was an awesome read. Very interesting perspective from both sides of the bubble/wave. Although I think it goes without saying everyone here would love Starcraft to be on the cusp of the wave, I agree that it's too hard to tell at this point.

With two expansions already planned, it seems likely that the bubble won't pop until LotV is released, but I think much of this hinges on Blizzard as much as the community at large

Probulous

Australia3894 Posts

June 20 2011 01:14 GMT

#14

Really interesting post.

One thing about MLG is remember there wasn't only SC2 there. I know we all like to think otherwise.

Sticky?

starcraft911

Korea (South)1263 Posts

June 20 2011 01:20 GMT

#15

I think it's a wave right now, but when the next big game comes out it will be somewhat of a bubble. If SC3 came out it would deffinately be a bubble.

Yoshi Kirishima

United States10343 Posts

June 20 2011 01:22 GMT

#16

great post

and so, cmon guys be encouraged to support esports! attend, subscribe, pay, or even just watch the stream :D