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Koreans willingly joining foreign teams. Foreign teams going to Korea to participate in GSTL. Starcraft progamers of all nationalities travelling to the four corners of the globe to participate in tournaments with ever growing prize pools and viewership. What does it all mean?
It has been said that the Korean word for bubble means “untapped potential.” In the West, however, the word has an entirely different connotation. “The Tech Bubble,” “The Housing Bubble” – these phrases negatively describe the spectacular failure of various overhyped, oversold, and overbought ideas in recent history. So what does it mean when someone talks about the idea of a “Starcraft 2 Bubble?” For some context, lets talk briefly about a conversation between Sheth and Mr. Bitter during Sheth’s 25 hour streaming marathon:
***Note I am paraphrasing to the best of my ability. I don’t remember the exact words that were said***
Mr Bitter: “Some day you are going to be in the Starcraft 2 Hall of Fame”
Sheth: “I hope so, wouldn’t that be cool? I’d love to be a progamer for a number of years then retire and make a living as a Starcraft coach. But I don’t know if that’s going to be possible, a lot of people are talking about how Starcraft 2 is in the middle of a bubble”
Mr. Bitter: “Is it a bubble or is it a wave?”
Sheth: “I don’t know, I hope it’s a wave.”
So, are we all witnessing short, intense bubble period in the history of Starcraft? Or is this the beginning of a paradigm-shifting wave? Will we look back on this period in time longingly remembering the “good old days,” or will we look back and laugh about how short-sighted we were to not embrace the future potential of E-Sports? Only time will tell for sure – but this thread seeks to highlight arguments on both sides and point out some major questions which will help indicate which path SC2 is heading down.
Arguments in Favor of a Bubble Identifying a bubble before it pops is extremely difficult. But there are some common themes behind recent bubbles which give us some areas to investigate. All recent major economic collapses have had impossibly high expectations from the general populace, while the underlying fundamentals are surprisingly weak. What are some areas in SC2 where this disconnect could be happening?
The Bubble Player Pool This concept is fairly abstract, so the best way I can describe this problem is by my own experiences. I am a Diamond League Zerg player. To most players on Teamliquid I am impossibly bad – and honestly I would largely agree with that assessment. I make mistake after mistake when I play. But to my newbie friends (who I convinced to buy SC2 from playing WoW) I am a god on the battlefield.
Lower tiers of competition tend to cannibalize themselves in E-Sports
The steep learning curve of Starcraft is not the main problem, however. The real problem is the cannibalistic nature of getting better. In other games, like WoW, if you are bad at the game you can relegate yourself to a support role and play with those who are more competent. In SC2 this is just not possible – you have to lose a ton of games before you start winning. There is just no other way to learn. This “grind” has victimized most of my friends who initially bought the game with high hopes. I am sure that this experience has been shared by many – the in game indicator has shown the number of ladder games taking place slowly decaying over time as players get frustrated with losing. The tiered league system has helped this immensely – but the game is still not where it needs to be to sustain its growth.
In order for Starcraft (and E-Sports) to truly grow – game design needs expand the player pool by keeping new players’ interest for longer.
The Bubble Tournament Finances It takes a lot of money to house, feed, and buy plane tickets hundreds of progamers (and their support staff) all over the world. Tournaments also need to reserve infrastructure such as satellite trucks, convention centers, and pay out generous prize pools in order to be successful. Without these expensive items there are no high-profile tournaments. Without high-profile tournaments, there is no E-Sports. So, the financial sustainability of the tournaments themselves is of utmost importance to the growth E-Sports community.
Hell, its about the money
To analyze whether the current set of prominent SC2 tournaments are sustainable lets do a thought experiment. Knowing what we know about stream viewership and attendance lets try to guess at the financial sustainability of each of the major SC2 tournaments below:
***This exercise is for the sake of discussion only, I know absolutely nothing of the inner workings of any of these institutions***
TSL Replay only tournament keeps costs low. They really only had to pay for casters, prize pool, and travel for T-zain and Naniwa, and probably received a lot of income from their 60,000+ stream viewers. Whoever manages Teamliquid as a business deserves a huge pat on the back. They have consistently put out a great product while not overextending themselves financially.
Deadjawa’s credit rating: AAA (great)
MLG Someone had to do it eventually
The financial situation of MLG is a hard one to figure out - I would love to see their financial books. They clearly spent a ton of money on satellite trucks, travel, convention halls, and gaming equipment but they also have some big sponsors to offset. There’s really no way of really knowing how financially sound the company is - but they are probably not making money hand over fist given their large expenses + staff.
Deadjawa’s credit rating: BBB+ (good)
GSL The financial stability of the GSL is a bit worrisome to me. They have their own studio, + support staff, and pay out huge prize pools. While E-Sports is clearly much bigger in Korea than it is here, it doesn’t seem like SC2 is nearly as big in Korea as Brood Wars. They do have some big sponsors, but how patient will they be if SC2 does not reach the popularity of Brood Wars in Korea?
Deadjawa’s credit rating: BBB- (ok)
NASL NASL does not have the benefit of the big sponsors of MLG and GSL, and does not have the big viewership of TSL, yet its prize pool is $100,000. They do have a mysterious benefactor, but mysterious benefactors usually don’t give away money for a loss for a sustained period. I would love to see this tournament continue to get better and better (it has throughout the season). But I am quite concerned that they wont have a chance given their reliance on a single sponsor
Deadjawa’s credit rating: CCC (not so great)
We can see that a lot of the big SC2 tournaments are highly dependent on big sponsorships. Given the mercurial nature of sponsors who are always looking for “the next big thing” to throw money at - there is cause concern. It’s likely that some of these tournaments may not survive that long in their current form. What damage that will cause to the SC2 E-Sports community is a big unknown.
In order to ensure its continued growth, the community should focus on creating financially conservative and sustainable events.
Arguments in Favor of a Wave It is equally difficult to predict when a wave of change is going to wash ashore and permanently shift a paradigm in society. Can E-Sports continue to grow at its current pace? Is it possible that someday E-Sports can be as big as other sports in the West? At this point, no one can say for sure but lets look at some arguments for this idea.
The Wave of International Trade It is very interesting to see the Keynesian argument against international trade manifest itself in the Starcraft Community. Most famously, CatZ has argued that the NASL should focus on developing North American players over inviting Koreans. While this argument may be compelling to some, the truth is that Korean participation in foreign leagues has greatly improved their quality.
The Koreans are changing the way the world looks at E-Sports
The free trade of ideas throughout the E-Sports community has, no doubt, benefitted everyone. The best ideas get propogated and expanded, while the bad ideas get stomped out. For example, foreign players have been given “the Korean model” for how to improve and to turn E-Sports truly professional. Inversely the Koreans have had a gigantic worldwide market opened to market their skills. Will foreign players ever compete toe to toe with Koreans at international events? I think so, but they will definitely have to work hard to improve.
The paradigm shift toward truly worldwide tournaments is a beneficial trend. It could create a brand new type of competition that ignores boundaries – and be one of the world’s first truly sustained international sporting events. The World Cup and the Olympics only occur once every four years. Sure, some sports like Baseball and Cricket have international events more often – but usually countries that participate in these events share a similar culture. There is no shared culture in E-Sports – simply a love of computer gaming.
If the creation of a brand new medium that brings people across the world together is not exciting to you, I don’t know what is.
What other sporting event has crowds cheering for competitors from clear across the world
The Wave of Developer Support The success of the Brood Wars E-Sports scene came as a shock to everyone, especially Blizzard. By the time it was clear that E-Sports were big in Korea, development of the game was finished. Blizzard had already focused their attention to other products. Because of this, there never was any support for competitive gaming built into Starcraft 1. All of this has changed with the development of Starcraft 2.
Our hopes lie with them
Starcraft 2 has shifted the paradigm of E-Sports game development. For the first time, Blizzard has developed an RTS game with a primary focus on developing its E-Sports capability. The polish and balance of the multiplayer at release was really unprecedented. Additionally, after release Blizzard has been able to patch in new E-Sports capabilities, actively answering community concerns. With two full expansions coming up more exciting features and capabilities will surely be added. These new features will be tailored to what is working in the community and will surely not be limited simply to new units and abilities.
The support of Blizzard throughout the growth of Starcraft 2’s E-sports scene will greatly improve the ability of the community to retain and grow its members.
Things to Look For While the community often focuses on minutae such as game balance and in-game manners, there are a couple of big unanswered questions which will play a large role in determining the future of Starcraft 2 E-Sports. Keep an eye on these things to get a pulse on whether we are in a bubble or on top of a wave:
- Will there be new features in Heart of the Swarm that support bringing the plethora of E-Sports tournies and products closer to the masses of casual gamers?
- Will there be improvements in Heart of the Swarm that make it easier for casual gamers to stay involved in the game?
- Will foreign gamers step up to the challenge, organizing and practicing as hard as the Koreans?
- Will the current set of major tournaments be able to survive and thrive financially?
Conclusion No one can say for sure what the future holds for Starcraft 2 and the greater E-Sports community. But it is clear that we are on the cusp of something big, whether it’s sustained or fleeting. One thing is for sure though, it’s an exciting time to be involved in the Starcraft world.
The conversation continues in the posts below.
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the only way to keep the river of esports flowing is to get more people interested in it. tell your friends, tweet, facebook, etc.
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In regards to the player pool, I don't think it matters how many people actually play and/or get better in SC2. I think the biggest test is how willing people are to watch Starcraft 2, even if they don't play it. Lots of major sports have a large viewer base that has never touched the game. In order of SC2 to grow, it needs to have a certain spectator appeal to get people who don't play the game much, or at all, to watch and follow the scene.
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So far so good. I think the biggest thing to look forward to is the next 2 expansions, which now looking back on it, was a really good idea (from an esports view). Each time a blizzard game expansion comes out, all the gaming sites heavily cover it and it'll really help bring in more viewers to the scene.
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All I can say is that it had BETTER not be a bubble. A "pop" would leave me with very little to do in my free time. :D
Also, I wish that leagues would actually tell us how well they're doing. Much of your Bubble Tournament Finances section was just conjecture, which is really all we have. Knowing how stable these things are seems like it would be a great indicator of the state of ESPORTS.
Cool article, by the way. Quite professional-looking.
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Wow really great writeup! I really want to see SC2 succeed as an esport and not just be a bubble.I really think as the pros get better and better and the games get more interesting due to higher skill levels more people will be willing to watch. Along with the pro players getting better I think more comentators are also improving, so hopefully soon there will be more commentators actually on the same level as tasteless/artosis/day9 to also make more tournaments more interesting to watch. Hopefully the sponsors stick around for things to really pick up, if they're actually not making enough money now.
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I think we're asking the wrong question here.
It's very easy to say SC2 E-Sports is a huge bubble just based on the bigger tournaments, but I would argue that it's primarily concentrated in the large number of online tournaments with small cash payouts. The infrastructure is more financially sound since the prizes are smaller and the costs are infinitely cheaper online, guaranteeing that there will be another.
The question should be: Are the bigger Live LAN Tournaments going to burst?
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I'm not going to take a side in this but I would like to say that it is an excellent post you made with great details, some of which completely passed me by. I am very interested in seeing how this develops
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Interesting post, but I'd like to point out that some people who watch the SC2 tournaments and player streams in fact do not own the game and never played it. That might be a low percentage in western countries, but how many people among the BW audience in Korea are really active SC1 or SC2 players?
I think that the main goal for SC2 is to grow to those proportions and try to suck in as many people as BW had. From that point the growth would be justified and sustainable.
Playing the game makes the bond only stronger, but it's not necessarily the ultimate condition to enjoy e-sports. People who don't play the game are less likely to go to events and buy online passes, but they are most likely watching the adverts on stream at the very least.
Edit: A lot of people had faster fingers than me. So to reflect upon their posts:
1) The credit rating is based only on outside perceptions, but nice nevertheless
(I just think the OP's arguments for wave are stronger)
2) I agree with the thesis that you need spectators who're not necessarily players too
3) I agree that the community tournaments are a big step toward the fulfillment of our wishes for the wave to be the case 
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Great post, thanks for sharing your thoughts.
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Hopefully it's not a bubble.
But the lack of new NA/EU upcoming players is worrying. In Korea there are so many new faces coming in (eg. DRG, Line, MMA). Whereas in the foreign scene (particularly NA), there are no new faces at all.
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On June 20 2011 10:10 Highways wrote:
Hopefully it's not a bubble.
But the lack of new NA/EU upcoming players is worrying. In Korea there are so many new faces coming in (eg. DRG, Line, MMA). Whereas in the foreign scene (particularly NA), there are no faces at all.
That's an easy thing to say.
That's because everybody watches the GSL. There are plenty of players who are at Dreamhack for example making impressive debuts.
And it's not like any of them are "new"; nobody paid attention to them until they became good.
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This was an awesome read. Very interesting perspective from both sides of the bubble/wave. Although I think it goes without saying everyone here would love Starcraft to be on the cusp of the wave, I agree that it's too hard to tell at this point.
With two expansions already planned, it seems likely that the bubble won't pop until LotV is released, but I think much of this hinges on Blizzard as much as the community at large
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Really interesting post.
One thing about MLG is remember there wasn't only SC2 there. I know we all like to think otherwise.
Sticky?
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I think it's a wave right now, but when the next big game comes out it will be somewhat of a bubble. If SC3 came out it would deffinately be a bubble.
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great post
and so, cmon guys be encouraged to support esports! attend, subscribe, pay, or even just watch the stream :D
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Great post, very interesting/intriguing. Go wave go !
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you are right OP. our fate depends on Blizzard. if they screw up the expansions then we are fked.
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Osaka27133 Posts
Spotlighted. Nice read and an interesting (and very relevant) topic.
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Good post. I hope its not a bubble and that SC2 will become a global e-sports played and watched around the world.
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The thing I'm the most scared of is the actual low stream numbers.
Like 6 million people in Sweden watches the Eurovision song conetest, which is completely retarded by the way, but the stream numbers of say TSL, the biggest, most anticipated, best and most awesome event ever comes up, the stream numbers are on around 80k at max.
In actuality that's super low.
Imagine the world football cup.. There's like literally billions of people watching. The sick leaves among males between 10 and 65 goes up crazily etc etc.
To me starcraft hasn't really begun picking up speed yet. It's a good start, but it's a flickering candle light, and the one thing that keeps it up, and keeps me interested in it is all the passionate people on the forums and streams.
That's what seperates the starcraft community from others.
Just Day9 and tastosis probably keep 80% (pulling stats right out of my ass, but it seems likely to me) all starcraft viewers interested in the games.
Few have enough passion to for instance watch a muted replay and enjoy it, or watch korean commentators.
If these core people leave the scene (I have a feeling artosis and day9 especially run a higher risk of getting shot by Michael Jacksson then quitting, but still), the foreigner starcraft scene is more or less dead.
That's one of the bigger risk factors.
The game is also as you said craziliy hard. I have a friend who started out by watching husky, then day9, then started playing, got stomped to the ground, and quit after 5 games, and says he doesn't wanna play cuz he's too bad at it.
He still watches streams, but is stopping that too more or less..
Maybe RTS games are too hard core for a wide spread public.
On the other hand it's a pretty good spectator sport, and only a handful of the previously mentioned football watchers actually play the game, so maybe that's not such a big factor after all.
I think e-sports will grow, and SC2 is definitely to me the most interesting to watch, but I don't think it'll ever become huge to be honest.
It'll be interesting to return to this thread in 10 years though.
Very good though =)
P.S I'm sorry if it was tldr. It's 0320 here and i gotta go to work soon so I'm a bit stressed out >.>
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Blizzard is taking a backseat approach to the movement and letting the community do crazy things with it; I don't think the responsibilities or expectations should be placed on them.
Just Day9 and tastosis probably keep 80% all starcraft viewers interested in the games. If these core people leave the scene the foreigner starcraft scene is more or less dead.
edit: Holy shit. That actually scares me even more than the tournaments.
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On June 20 2011 10:20 starcraft911 wrote:
I think it's a wave right now, but when the next big game comes out it will be somewhat of a bubble. If SC3 came out it would deffinately be a bubble.
I guess it depends on your definition of ESPORTS. If it is only Starcraft then it will inevitably be a bubble. Some would say that BW is nearing the end but is has hardly "burst". I think that the more games that get people involved, the better.
Competition between games for viewers can only increase the level of production and quality for viewers. This is a good thing.
The biggest determinant of whether ESPORTS is successful is whether it can become self-sustaining. I think this is what the OP is trying to say when he mentions the reliance on sponsors. People like Day9, who can make a living without relying on sponsors, shows the numbers are there right now. Whether this can be sustained is the real question.
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Osaka27133 Posts
In your points to consider, this:
Will there be new features in Heart of the Swarm that support bringing the plethora of E-Sports tournies and products closer to the masses of casual gamers?
and this
Will the current set of major tournaments be able to survive and thrive financially?
are really tied at the hip. In this industry new games are constantly coming out and they chip (or chunk) away users' time and interest. Despite it's success, BW was not immune from this either except in the strange circumstance in Korea. Without that core SC2 is much more vulnerable.
What it means is that the expansions as well as development support (like patches) need to keep the game relevant. This doesn't mean SC2 has to be the only game. The success in other games as an esport is an important part of diversifying the audience. But if you look at WCG, some games were pillars year after year, while others were brought on and then discarded.
Also important is the evolution of the viewing experience.The vast majority of people who experience these events do it at home in front of their computer. Tournament organizers need to constantly be aware of the experience they provide and how to best utilize this platform. The true bubble right now is in the saturation of content available. Being a second tier online experience right now is not an option for those hoping to be successful.
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I think the big development SC2 needs is a solidification of the story, the drama around the sport.
Compare to tennis for example. There are four major tournaments, the grand slams (Aussie, French, Wimbledon, US). These are the ones everyone wants to win, the tournaments where history is made and where the story of the sport is told. They also offer the highest quality tennis. Golf is similar with it's four major tournaments.
Brood war has something similar, with the big tournaments, OSL, MSL etc, also the idea of the golden mouse.
Right now, I personally see MLG, GSL, Dreamhack as the big tournaments. I think there needs to be co-operation between the tournaments so that all the top players can eaisly qualify and play in all of these tournaments. It's likely that only these tournaments can actually sustain the live event format, with all other smaller tournaments being online only.
To some degree this needs to happen organically, but it also requires co-operation between the tournaments.
Online gaming has an important feature where player fatigue is not as a big of an effect as other sports, such as football, where the physical body actually takes damage and has to recover. I'm not totally discounting mental fatigue here, especially when combined with odd hours or jet lag this can definatly effect mental performance.
The thing is this becomes a burden because tournaments can do things like NASL does, where players are expected to play from Korea in the middle of the night over laggy connections. It's just unacceptable, and we will never see the highest quality SC2 when this kind of play is allowed. It's just a fact.
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a big indicator is how many people MLGPro (or any other live event promoter) can get to pay to watch an SC2 event live.
if that number continues to climb... and MLGPro can raise ticket prices then we have ourselves a winner.
if people are unwilling to pay to see the live event then "the bubble will burst".
so far i think MLGPro's attendance is growing by leaps and bounds.;
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On June 20 2011 10:32 Manifesto7 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +In your points to consider, this: Will there be new features in Heart of the Swarm that support bringing the plethora of E-Sports tournies and products closer to the masses of casual gamers?
and this
Will the current set of major tournaments be able to survive and thrive financially? are really tied at the hip. In this industry new games are constantly coming out and they chip (or chunk) away users' time and interest. Despite it's success, BW was not immune from this either except in the strange circumstance in Korea. Without that core SC2 is much more vulnerable. What it means is that the expansions as well as development support (like patches) need to keep the game relevant. This doesn't mean SC2 has to be the only game. The success in other games as an esport is an important part of diversifying the audience. But if you look at WCG, some games were pillars year after year, while others were brought on and then discarded. Also important is the evolution of the viewing experience.The vast majority of people who experience these events do it at home in front of their computer. Tournament organizers need to constantly be aware of the experience they provide and how to best utilize this platform. The true bubble right now is in the saturation of content available. Being a second tier online experience right now is not an option for those hoping to be successful.
This ^ is a really exciting point.
The viewing market is somewhat saturated, which provides an abundance of riches for viewers. I love the fact that if you are not good enough, it will show. Nothing improves service like competition.
The space for growth is from alternative provisions. Right now there is a huge supply of competitive viewing, but relatively small amount of additional content. I guess Day9 is the best example of creating a side market. Being able to leverage the popularity of the sport to create new areas for growth, will help create a wider audience for the sport. Things like DJWheat's show, SOTG (when it comes back) and TL Attack provide an easier integration into the gaming community which is crucial for something as complicated and competitive and SC2.
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See, I doubt that it is a bubble. Everything seems to be on the rise, sponsors flowing in, players getting better and better and the production value only improving.
I think it would be interesting to apply this bubble / wave kind of idea to different aspects of e-sports though.
One very likely thing that i do see happening is that the sort of informality in the tournament scene will tone down. Once the big name sponsors work their way in, and it becomes even more money-focused, the scene will need to assume a business-like and more professional-looking appearance. I don't see investors putting huge amounts of money in to something that doesn't look completely legit.
The laughing and joking commentators that don't always talk about the game, occasionally straying through the thin lines of 'acceptable' language, will need to become completely PC, polite and on task to attract people outside of the computer gamer scene.
But this is all speculation, and if that were to happen it would certainly be a bubble, I think most of us nerds would miss watching Day[9] joke about irrelevant things...
On a further note, one can certainly consider the exponential community growth a wave, a lot of people look back on the 2005 tl.net BW bubble and wish that had never changed.
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On June 20 2011 10:22 Golgotha wrote:
you are right OP. our fate depends on Blizzard. if they screw up the expansions then we are fked.
Well, all nerd rage aside I think Blizzard has been always pretty consistent with its expansions(well, I don´t know about WoW but both SC, Diablo and W3 the expansions added much more depth)
The article is well written and all congrats OP. Personally i don´t think it will be a bubble, as many who play games and keep up with the the industry knows we all know that game sales are extremely front loaded and that the hype for a game lasts for the first 2-3 weeks and then dies out.
Fortunately for SC2 that is not the case, overall I feel that the proscene has been getting more popular lately and this has been 1 year since release. Take that and lets give credit to Blizzard, they know how to hype a game I don´t see the SC2 bubble bursting anytime soon.
One thing I must clarify, we have to take into account that stabilization of the scene does not mean a bubble bursting at one time we will go through the growing pains of the scene stabilizing, but that happens with virtually every product and service and that doesn´t mean it will fail.
Of course this kind if stuff is extremely hard to predict and I kinda found it funny that you used Sheth and Mr Bitter as an example because, don´t get me wrong I love them, apart from being good at SC2 I don´t think they are really experts in the matter of the economics of SC2. And don´t get me wrong, even experts have a hard time predicting how the market will behave you know what they say about economists, we spend 6 months trying to predict the market and the next 6 months explaining why our prediction was wrong.
Just my 2 cents, while I don´t think e-sports will become like it was like in peak korean BW days I do think that the niche it fills is growing more and more(and I am not talking just about SC2 exclusively competitive gaming as a whole haqs grown tremendously)
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Great posts.
But there is one thing which im constantly asking myself and I didnt really get an answer by reading this post:
Where is the difference between SC2 today and esport in the past 10 years?
At least here in Germany people talked about the same things already 5 years ago in the glory days of WC3/counterstrike; the optimists sounded exactly like the people who are now predicting a sustainable growth of sc2 esport.
Recently I read an article from 2006 where the author was describing how much esport would grow within the next 5 years, but now that we reached the year 2011 its hard to tell if esport in Germany did grow at all, some people might even say that less people are following esport in Germany than 5 years ago.
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I personally hope it's a bubble, and when it pops, everyone will shift back to BW. If foreigner BW got the attention and money thrown at it that SC2 has, it could have been so much better. IMO SC2's purpose in the grand scheme is to introduce Westerners to the idea of e-sports, and then they can shed their baby teeth and bite into the real e-sport, BW.
Sorry for the hate, SC2 fans. But I just don't see SC2 ever having the longevity that BW has.
IMO a big problem is the over saturation. SC2 tourneys are taking place 24-7. The GSL never fucking stops. How did that work out for guitar hero and Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Yeah...
BW 4 life. SC2 will serve it's purpose and show the rest of the world the value of e-sports. And when it dies years from now, and big American/European companies start sponsoring their Brood War pro teams, I'll think back and say "yeah, I love SC2... for what it did for Brood War!"
Hey, a guy can dream...
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I think that with all the kids today playing video games like xbox that esports will be more accepted in the future.
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This was an awesome and thought-provoking thought. My fear is that its a bubble. GSL especially worries me since they pay out so much in prizes and I'm not sure they are gaining any ground in Korea in terms of a fan base.
Hopefully I am wrong as I love watching GSL.
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On June 20 2011 10:10 Highways wrote:
Hopefully it's not a bubble.
But the lack of new NA/EU upcoming players is worrying. In Korea there are so many new faces coming in (eg. DRG, Line, MMA). Whereas in the foreign scene (particularly NA), there are no new faces at all.
Nah, I'd say that it's just getting harder and harder to get mindshare, especially with non-NA players getting mostly overshadowed by players of other nationalities (obviously Idra is an exception).
I think EU is doing fine, with Sweden really stepping up the esports scene.
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Osaka27133 Posts
On June 20 2011 10:48 groms wrote:
This was an awesome and thought-provoking thought. My fear is that its a bubble. GSL especially worries me since they pay out so much in prizes and I'm not sure they are gaining any ground in Korea in terms of a fan base.
Hopefully I am wrong as I love watching GSL.
One could argue that the potential payoff for capturing the market in Korea is greater than just about every other market.
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In my one year of studying economics, I noticed the presence of many self-fulfilling phenomenons: unemployment vs. inflation, stock market rises and crashes, pricing even (in general, "expectations"). I have a feeling this will be the most important factor. If people believe it will grow, it will grow. If pessimism prevails, a "bear" scene may bury us. At least, that's how I'll view it.
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On June 20 2011 10:47 erin[go]bragh wrote:
I personally hope it's a bubble, and when it pops, everyone will shift back to BW. If foreigner BW got the attention and money thrown at it that SC2 has, it could have been so much better. IMO SC2's purpose in the grand scheme is to introduce Westerners to the idea of e-sports, and then they can shed their baby teeth and bite into the real e-sport, BW.
Sorry for the hate, SC2 fans. But I just don't see SC2 ever having the longevity that BW has.
IMO a big problem is the over saturation. SC2 tourneys are taking place 24-7. The GSL never fucking stops. How did that work out for guitar hero and Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Yeah...
BW 4 life. SC2 will serve it's purpose and show the rest of the world the value of e-sports. And when it dies years from now, and big American/European companies start sponsoring their Brood War pro teams, I'll think back and say "yeah, I love SC2... for what it did for Brood War!"
Hey, a guy can dream...
Not gonna happen. If SC2 fails, what makes you believe that most SC2 talent will move (back) to BW?
In terms of saturation, plenty of B-class and handful of A-class BW players have moved to SC2 primarily because BW is too saturated to support them.
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Given SC2 as an e-sport is mostly popular in the 1v1 arena, there is no "team" to root for per se (even though there are SC2 clans obviously). In many other single person sports, the popularity is not only based on the play involved but also the players themselves. In fact, the players usually are more important to the game than the game itself. See what Tiger Woods did for golf for example.
I think for SC2 to survive long term we need to groom the players as being important, we should let their personalities show as much as possible. We also need both people to root for as well as against. Say what you want about people like Idra, but frankly we need more like him. He gives us a reason to cheer and boo based on who he is, which is just as important (if not more so) than his play. Day9 is another obvious example here (and he doesn't even play in tournies).
This is not to say we need to overdo it with over the top gimmicks, but I think it's human nature to root for people you feel like you "know" in some way. We can't let each other just sit quietly behind a computer screen, and expect casual fans to "get it". For this to take off in a big way, fans need to be able to connect with the game outside of the game, and that comes from the players themselves.
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If you want eSports to grow then do your best to tell your friends and keep it going. It won't go anywhere if you only talk about it to yourself or one or two people. Even telling your online gaming friends can help.
Also: That wave looks like bacon. =)
+ Show Spoiler +
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I think starcraft 2is on a wave, but all the tournaments popping up (and other financial stuff) is on a bubble.
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I say stop giving a fuck and see what happens. Trying to predict things isn't going to get you far. Very good post anyway. Coeherent.
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On June 20 2011 10:53 lbmaian wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 10:47 erin[go]bragh wrote:
I personally hope it's a bubble, and when it pops, everyone will shift back to BW. If foreigner BW got the attention and money thrown at it that SC2 has, it could have been so much better. IMO SC2's purpose in the grand scheme is to introduce Westerners to the idea of e-sports, and then they can shed their baby teeth and bite into the real e-sport, BW.
Sorry for the hate, SC2 fans. But I just don't see SC2 ever having the longevity that BW has.
IMO a big problem is the over saturation. SC2 tourneys are taking place 24-7. The GSL never fucking stops. How did that work out for guitar hero and Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Yeah...
BW 4 life. SC2 will serve it's purpose and show the rest of the world the value of e-sports. And when it dies years from now, and big American/European companies start sponsoring their Brood War pro teams, I'll think back and say "yeah, I love SC2... for what it did for Brood War!"
Hey, a guy can dream...
Not gonna happen. If SC2 fails, what makes you believe that most SC2 talent will move (back) to BW? In terms of saturation, plenty of B-class and handful of A-class BW players have moved to SC2 primarily because BW is too saturated to support them.
Over saturation referring to the viewers. If you shove SC2 down peoples throats all fucking day, they are going to get bored of it. TSL is hype because it happens so rarely. But when the supposed biggest tournament in the scene takes place every damn month, wheres the hype? Its all boring crap to me, but then again, I am quite the BW zealot.
And yes, I believe the talent would go back to BW, if SC2 had generated enough new interest in RTS e-sports to create a market for it. Don't kid yourself, there are basically 2 reasons BW players switched to SC2.
1: It's easier.
2: There's more money in it. You can't make a living playing BW in the West.
Keep in mind that all this is in context to foreign StarCraft.
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On June 20 2011 11:05 erin[go]bragh wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 10:53 lbmaian wrote:On June 20 2011 10:47 erin[go]bragh wrote:
I personally hope it's a bubble, and when it pops, everyone will shift back to BW. If foreigner BW got the attention and money thrown at it that SC2 has, it could have been so much better. IMO SC2's purpose in the grand scheme is to introduce Westerners to the idea of e-sports, and then they can shed their baby teeth and bite into the real e-sport, BW.
Sorry for the hate, SC2 fans. But I just don't see SC2 ever having the longevity that BW has.
IMO a big problem is the over saturation. SC2 tourneys are taking place 24-7. The GSL never fucking stops. How did that work out for guitar hero and Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Yeah...
BW 4 life. SC2 will serve it's purpose and show the rest of the world the value of e-sports. And when it dies years from now, and big American/European companies start sponsoring their Brood War pro teams, I'll think back and say "yeah, I love SC2... for what it did for Brood War!"
Hey, a guy can dream...
Not gonna happen. If SC2 fails, what makes you believe that most SC2 talent will move (back) to BW? In terms of saturation, plenty of B-class and handful of A-class BW players have moved to SC2 primarily because BW is too saturated to support them. Over saturation referring to the viewers. If you shove SC2 down peoples throats all fucking day, they are going to get bored of it. TSL is hype because it happens so rarely. But when the supposed biggest tournament in the scene takes place every damn month, wheres the hype? Its all boring crap to me, but then again, I am quite the BW zealot. And yes, I believe the talent would go back to BW, if SC2 had generated enough new interest in RTS e-sports to create a market for it. Don't kid yourself, there are basically 2 reasons BW players switched to SC2. 1: It's easier. 2: There's more money in it. You can't make a living playing BW in the West. Keep in mind that all this is in context to foreign StarCraft.
And what makes you think the viewers will go to BW? If SC2 fails, then there was a reason for its failure. I highly doubt that that reason will have anything to do with MBS or control groups or anything along those lines. More than anything it may just be people going back to playing CoD or whatever.
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I cant see esport growing in the west as that big, despite fans are vastly expanding.
The problem is that foreigner pro players are really struggling to win a bo3 against koreans.
koreans currently never lost against foreigners in dreamhack or MLG theyre taking all the prices.But foreinger pro gamers are totally inflated however cant expect a foreigner winning internatinal events even if they do they're income isnt consistent.Only korea seems the place where you could live out of tourney prizes.All foreign players gain income just coaching and streaming never trying to lessen the gap,which is far from the term pro gamer compared to korea.Im trying to say is that the skill gap might hurt the pros and the spectators whic is really bad for growth of esports
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On June 20 2011 11:05 erin[go]bragh wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 10:53 lbmaian wrote:On June 20 2011 10:47 erin[go]bragh wrote:
I personally hope it's a bubble, and when it pops, everyone will shift back to BW. If foreigner BW got the attention and money thrown at it that SC2 has, it could have been so much better. IMO SC2's purpose in the grand scheme is to introduce Westerners to the idea of e-sports, and then they can shed their baby teeth and bite into the real e-sport, BW.
Sorry for the hate, SC2 fans. But I just don't see SC2 ever having the longevity that BW has.
IMO a big problem is the over saturation. SC2 tourneys are taking place 24-7. The GSL never fucking stops. How did that work out for guitar hero and Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Yeah...
BW 4 life. SC2 will serve it's purpose and show the rest of the world the value of e-sports. And when it dies years from now, and big American/European companies start sponsoring their Brood War pro teams, I'll think back and say "yeah, I love SC2... for what it did for Brood War!"
Hey, a guy can dream...
Not gonna happen. If SC2 fails, what makes you believe that most SC2 talent will move (back) to BW? In terms of saturation, plenty of B-class and handful of A-class BW players have moved to SC2 primarily because BW is too saturated to support them. Over saturation referring to the viewers. If you shove SC2 down peoples throats all fucking day, they are going to get bored of it. TSL is hype because it happens so rarely. But when the supposed biggest tournament in the scene takes place every damn month, wheres the hype? Its all boring crap to me, but then again, I am quite the BW zealot. And yes, I believe the talent would go back to BW, if SC2 had generated enough new interest in RTS e-sports to create a market for it. Don't kid yourself, there are basically 2 reasons BW players switched to SC2. 1: It's easier. 2: There's more money in it. You can't make a living playing BW in the West. Keep in mind that all this is in context to foreign StarCraft.
The problem with your theory is that you expect (foreign) BW to last till SC2 dies.
You also assume that given time SC2 will never compete with BW. Possible but I see no reason to believe that.
Not sure what makes you think this will come true.
Besides, this is kind of 
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it's like light. it's both bubbular and waveular!!!!!
....and it's also particles....
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The steep learning curve of Starcraft is not the main problem, however. The real problem is the cannibalistic nature of getting better. In other games, like WoW, if you are bad at the game you can relegate yourself to a support role and play with those who are more competent. In SC2 this is just not possible – you have to lose a ton of games before you start winning. There is just no other way to learn. This “grind” has victimized most of my friends who initially bought the game with high hopes. I am sure that this experience has been shared by many – the in game indicator has shown the number of ladder games taking place slowly decaying over time as players get frustrated with losing. The tiered league system has helped this immensely – but the game is still not where it needs to be to sustain its growth.
This was true in Brood War, though. In fact, I'd say it was even more true in BW than it was in SC2, because BW can be pretty frustrating to someone playing it for the first time.
But BW, after a while, was all about the custom games for low-level players. BGH 2v2v2v2 and primitive proto-DOTA "RPG" games. There was some weird custom World War 2 based team game that I remember as being popular, too. There's a lot that can be done in the custom map department to address the "it's to haaaarrrddd" issue, and more gently lead the nooblets into "real" play.
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Russian Federation905 Posts
I saw the title and I thought "No! Are thing like this going to be a weekly affair in TL"
Then I clicked (hesitantly) and read and think! "WOW! This is something!
Thanks OP!
On June 20 2011 09:49 Sprouter wrote:
the only way to keep the river of esports flowing is to get more people interested in it. tell your friends, tweet, facebook, etc.
Not really. That's only part of it! First you must have a good game to draw people in.
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On June 20 2011 11:09 Redmark wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 11:05 erin[go]bragh wrote:On June 20 2011 10:53 lbmaian wrote:On June 20 2011 10:47 erin[go]bragh wrote:
I personally hope it's a bubble, and when it pops, everyone will shift back to BW. If foreigner BW got the attention and money thrown at it that SC2 has, it could have been so much better. IMO SC2's purpose in the grand scheme is to introduce Westerners to the idea of e-sports, and then they can shed their baby teeth and bite into the real e-sport, BW.
Sorry for the hate, SC2 fans. But I just don't see SC2 ever having the longevity that BW has.
IMO a big problem is the over saturation. SC2 tourneys are taking place 24-7. The GSL never fucking stops. How did that work out for guitar hero and Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Yeah...
BW 4 life. SC2 will serve it's purpose and show the rest of the world the value of e-sports. And when it dies years from now, and big American/European companies start sponsoring their Brood War pro teams, I'll think back and say "yeah, I love SC2... for what it did for Brood War!"
Hey, a guy can dream...
Not gonna happen. If SC2 fails, what makes you believe that most SC2 talent will move (back) to BW? In terms of saturation, plenty of B-class and handful of A-class BW players have moved to SC2 primarily because BW is too saturated to support them. Over saturation referring to the viewers. If you shove SC2 down peoples throats all fucking day, they are going to get bored of it. TSL is hype because it happens so rarely. But when the supposed biggest tournament in the scene takes place every damn month, wheres the hype? Its all boring crap to me, but then again, I am quite the BW zealot. And yes, I believe the talent would go back to BW, if SC2 had generated enough new interest in RTS e-sports to create a market for it. Don't kid yourself, there are basically 2 reasons BW players switched to SC2. 1: It's easier. 2: There's more money in it. You can't make a living playing BW in the West. Keep in mind that all this is in context to foreign StarCraft. And what makes you think the viewers will go to BW? If SC2 fails, then there was a reason for its failure. I highly doubt that that reason will have anything to do with MBS or control groups or anything along those lines. More than anything it may just be people going back to playing CoD or whatever.
You want my honest answer? Okay, one moment.
/flame retardant suit.
Because Brood War is a better game. SC2 is fucking boring. MBS, auto-mine, smart cast, these are all things that IMO water down the competitive nature of StarCraft. But in the end, SC2 could be 2x more demanding mechanically than BW, but it wouldn't matter because it's fucking boring to watch.
SC2 will fail because after seeing blob vs. blob battles for a year, you'll get sick of it. The dynamic and chaotic combat of BW, however, has already withstood the test of time and remained exciting to it's viewers for a decade.
SC2 is the flavor of the week, month, year, or whatever. Just like the new installment of CoD, people are crazy about it because they remember playing SC1 on their N64 and thinking it was a cool game. They never heard of Korea or Boxer or pro-Brood War before SC2, and this whole idea of e-sports is new and exciting. Eventually they are going to get tired of it, and move on to whatever shiny new game is out and demanding their time. However, some of these viewers might stumble into a BW live report thread one night, watch a couple games, and say to themselves "wow..."
And thus, SC2 will dwindle, and BW will thrive! Again... All wishful thinking. 
+ Show Spoiler +Honestly though, I apologize. I never like to be that "hate filled zealot" who preaches that his way of life is somehow better than yours, but it's hard not to be passionate about BW.
Edit: This is quite a bit off topic! I don't want to detract any further from such a well written OP. I'll take my leave, if anyone feels like writing a rebuttal, please keep it to PMs.
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On June 20 2011 11:19 erin[go]bragh wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 11:09 Redmark wrote:On June 20 2011 11:05 erin[go]bragh wrote:On June 20 2011 10:53 lbmaian wrote:On June 20 2011 10:47 erin[go]bragh wrote:
I personally hope it's a bubble, and when it pops, everyone will shift back to BW. If foreigner BW got the attention and money thrown at it that SC2 has, it could have been so much better. IMO SC2's purpose in the grand scheme is to introduce Westerners to the idea of e-sports, and then they can shed their baby teeth and bite into the real e-sport, BW.
Sorry for the hate, SC2 fans. But I just don't see SC2 ever having the longevity that BW has.
IMO a big problem is the over saturation. SC2 tourneys are taking place 24-7. The GSL never fucking stops. How did that work out for guitar hero and Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Yeah...
BW 4 life. SC2 will serve it's purpose and show the rest of the world the value of e-sports. And when it dies years from now, and big American/European companies start sponsoring their Brood War pro teams, I'll think back and say "yeah, I love SC2... for what it did for Brood War!"
Hey, a guy can dream...
Not gonna happen. If SC2 fails, what makes you believe that most SC2 talent will move (back) to BW? In terms of saturation, plenty of B-class and handful of A-class BW players have moved to SC2 primarily because BW is too saturated to support them. Over saturation referring to the viewers. If you shove SC2 down peoples throats all fucking day, they are going to get bored of it. TSL is hype because it happens so rarely. But when the supposed biggest tournament in the scene takes place every damn month, wheres the hype? Its all boring crap to me, but then again, I am quite the BW zealot. And yes, I believe the talent would go back to BW, if SC2 had generated enough new interest in RTS e-sports to create a market for it. Don't kid yourself, there are basically 2 reasons BW players switched to SC2. 1: It's easier. 2: There's more money in it. You can't make a living playing BW in the West. Keep in mind that all this is in context to foreign StarCraft. And what makes you think the viewers will go to BW? If SC2 fails, then there was a reason for its failure. I highly doubt that that reason will have anything to do with MBS or control groups or anything along those lines. More than anything it may just be people going back to playing CoD or whatever. You want my honest answer? Okay, one moment. /flame retardant suit. Because Brood War is a better game. SC2 is fucking boring. MBS, auto-mine, smart cast, these are all things that IMO water down the competitive nature of StarCraft. But in the end, SC2 could be 2x more demanding mechanically than BW, but it wouldn't matter because it's fucking boring to watch. SC2 will fail because after seeing blob vs. blob battles for a year, you'll get sick of it. The dynamic and chaotic combat of BW, however, has already withstood the test of time and remained exciting to it's viewers for a decade. SC2 is the flavor of the week, month, year, or whatever. Just like the new installment of CoD, people are crazy about it because they remember playing SC1 on their N64 and thinking it was a cool game. They never heard of Korea or Boxer or pro-Brood War before SC2, and this whole idea of e-sports is new and exciting. Eventually they are going to get tired of it, and move on to whatever shiny new game is out and demanding their time. However, some of these viewers might stumble into a BW live report thread one night, watch a couple games, and say to themselves "wow..." And thus, SC2 will dwindle, and BW will thrive! Again... All wishful thinking. + Show Spoiler +Honestly though, I apologize. I never like to be that "hate filled zealot" who preaches that his way of life is somehow better than yours, but it's hard not to be passionate about BW.
I understand, I only recently started watching BW (shame on me), its soo good!
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What on earth is 'brood wars'?
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Edit: Fuck, meant to hit edit, must have hit quote. Apologies. 
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I really hate to sound like a total ass, but if there is one thing I don't want Blizzard to do, it's make the game easier. I'm in FULL support of them adding different maps for lower leagues, and if they want to, easier mechanics. But, them making the higher leagues, especially pro level suffer because they are trying to appeal to casual players, I will be pretty angry. There is NOTHING stopping them from adding different maps/mechanics at lower leagues.
It would save so much trouble, both for the players and Blizzard. People should be less worried about whether "Starcraft 2 being as big as Sports" and be more worried about who is going to win the next GSL. You talking about "E-Sports" growing in the west is as beneficial as me talking about who is going to win the next Stanley Cup, as most of you would not care.
E-Sports will grow by itself and it only needs a large player base (which it already has). Making the Game easier make more money, but would not necessarily increase the growth of E-Sports, in fact, it would most likely piss people off. E-Sports will be big. There is no point in predicting how big seeing as there are tournament with 100,000+ being poured into it. Don't worry about Korea. Brood War will be alive there for more than a decade(s). This is something you can not change, and SHOULD NOT change. Starcraft 2 is significantly less difficult then Brood War and was very, very successful. Things like Auto-mine and SmartCast made Starcraft 2 much, much less appealing to me yet got them many more purchases and helped with the playerbase. This still, in turn hurts the entertainment value and skill ceiling. So keep in mind that "Playerbase does not relate necessarily to the Growth of E-Sports/Entertainment Value"
Think of it this way.
All Companies want a larger market for their game. They Start off Small and Grow.
Call of Duty 2: Appeals to a smaller crowd than Black Ops. = To make More money they combine Call of Duty 2 with other games that would create a larger market and playerbase.
Brood War: a very difficult game that was turned off by many casual players who thought it was too difficult. (Appealed to Small crowd.) To fix this: Make the game easier. = More people
Battlefield 2: A game that contained some realism but was only for the PC and did not appeal to players who sought for a Run and Gun Game.. Battlefield = Appeals to Cod Fanbase by making it less realistic.
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On June 20 2011 11:22 Ruscour wrote:
What on earth is 'brood wars'?
its this game that korean noobs who are not good enough for Sc2 play, all the foreigners are too awesome for it. Some really good BW players like  MC and  NesTea were soo good that they got promoted to SC2.
Also its obviously a wave, its flawless and full of 100% awesomeness.
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It's certainly a bubble that will decline over the course of this summer, which will rise once more with HOTS then decline over time, then rise again the last expansion - THEN we will see what really happens.
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Something that needs to happen to stabilize the right side of the learning curve is that people need to get schools interested in e-sports. With district level competition I'm sure there will be some stars, but more importantly there will be lower level players that are willing to play with others that arn't as good.
I challenge some high school level people that live in the same district a future MLG this: After the MLG get some numbers and approach the school board of your district with a good presentation to open a league like that.
A key to the success of e-sports is sustainability, and if the youngest are playing this now, we just need to make sure that it is interesting to continue playing later.
One problem of the gaming community is that the audiences are very quick to jump from game to game to keep playing. It is the job of e-sports fanatics to continue to make amazing stories that make gamers come back because they "have to see how it ends!"
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On June 20 2011 11:22 Ruscour wrote:
What on earth is 'brood wars'?
oooh, not sure what to say here?
I guess the best thing to do is tell you that it is the most successful competitive game ever, and happens to be what SC2 was based on.
Basically BW was SC1 and its expansion.
Now, if you asking why everyone is passionate about BW, take a look here.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=100673
+ Show Spoiler + I know he has moved to SC2, but he will always be a sexy BW vet to me
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One thing to think about: sustainability is not just about viewer numbers. The value of a stream to sponsors also depends heavily on the viewer demographic. If, for example, the average SC2 viewer buys a high-end PC every two years, that's going to greatly increase the financial value of sponsoring a tournament. I don't know that we've seen any market research to indicate how that works out. Get on it, TL!!
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very interesting post... makes me think a lot about the current status of SC2
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On June 20 2011 09:49 Sprouter wrote:
the only way to keep the river of esports flowing is to get more people interested in it. tell your friends, tweet, facebook, etc.
exactly the mentality that has gotten us here however the problem lies in the internet not holding that many more people. truly we have to branch out into other mediums and people to gather more money and sponsers
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On June 20 2011 10:50 lbmaian wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 10:10 Highways wrote:
Hopefully it's not a bubble.
But the lack of new NA/EU upcoming players is worrying. In Korea there are so many new faces coming in (eg. DRG, Line, MMA). Whereas in the foreign scene (particularly NA), there are no new faces at all. Nah, I'd say that it's just getting harder and harder to get mindshare, especially with non-NA players getting mostly overshadowed by players of other nationalities (obviously Idra is an exception). I think EU is doing fine, with Sweden really stepping up the esports scene.
Also, TL is also not the ideal place for displaying new talent IMO. The primary way for newcomers to enter the scene is to enter small tourneys and streams and hope they get views. It's the latter that TL sucks at - the whole featured stream system is inherently problematic and subject to TL mod biases.
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On June 20 2011 11:25 DeepBlu2 wrote:
I really hate to sound like a total ass, but if there is one thing I don't want Blizzard to do, it's make the game easier. I'm in FULL support of them adding different maps for lower leagues, and if they want to, easier mechanics. But, them making the higher leagues, especially pro level suffer because they are trying to appeal to casual players, I will be pretty angry. There is NOTHING stopping them from adding different maps/mechanics at lower leagues.
It would save so much trouble, both for the players and Blizzard. People should be less worried about whether "Starcraft 2 being as big as Sports" and be more worried about who is going to win the next GSL. You talking about "E-Sports" growing in the west is as beneficial as me talking about who is going to win the next Stanley Cup, as most of you would not care.
E-Sports will grow by itself and it only needs a large player base (which it already has). Making the Game easier make more money, but would not necessarily increase the growth of E-Sports, in fact, it would most likely piss people off. E-Sports will be big. There is no point in predicting how big seeing as there are tournament with 100,000+ being poured into it. Don't worry about Korea. Brood War will be alive there for more than a decade(s). This is something you can not change, and SHOULD NOT change. Starcraft 2 is significantly less difficult then Brood War and was very, very successful. Things like Auto-mine and SmartCast made Starcraft 2 much, much less appealing to me yet got them many more purchases and helped with the playerbase. This still, in turn hurts the entertainment value and skill ceiling. So keep in mind that "Playerbase does not relate necessarily to the Growth of E-Sports/Entertainment Value"
Where is the offramp that you took so I can follow...
I'm not sure anyone here said they should make SC2 easier? They just said that it should be more accessible to casual gamers. Pro football is hard but you can play in your backyard.
As I mentioned earlier, making it accesible doesn't have to change the game. BGH was fun as hell to the casual gamer but could not be further from competitive play. Same thing can happen with SC2. It can still be competitive whilst having maps, mods etc for the casual gamer.
As for the Stanley Cup, some people are quite passionate about it and surprise, can actually make a decent living playing the sport. I think you might be confusing succesfull with world domination.
BW was only succesfull in Korea, I think Blizzard is trying to avoid a repeat. The only way to do this is grow a base outside of Korea. Casual gamers are what will do this. I am sorry if this offends you but it is the truth. As for MBS etc ruining the game, it has been debated before and isn't relevant as BW is still going strong. If you don't like SC2, stick with BW.
This almost looks like a post of someone who saw a SC2 topic and thought, hey how can I bash the game and promote the awesomeness of BW. Doesn't help anybody.
Edit: Clarity
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On June 20 2011 11:28 Probulous wrote:oooh, not sure what to say here? I guess the best thing to do is tell you that it is the most successful competitive game ever, and happens to be what SC2 was based on. Basically BW was SC1 and its expansion. Now, if you asking why everyone is passionate about BW, take a look here. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=100673+ Show Spoiler + I know he has moved to SC2, but he will always be a sexy BW vet to me
I'm *pretty* sure he was just being sarcastic.
(It's "Brood War" not "Brood Wars.)
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Great post, but MLG is indeed quite financially sound. I can find no revenue information from later then 2009, but in 2009 they had ~50 million in revenue. They secured an additional 10 million in capital from an institutional investor to expand operations in December, so presumably they are doing fine. They have partnerships with major advertising and media agencies, and you have to recognize how valuable of a demographic we are: 18-24, highly educated, lots of disposable income.In 2009 from: http://techcrunch.com/2009/11/11/interview-with-matt-bromberg-ceo-of-major-league-gaming/ they stated they were profitable. Presumably they still are, as they stated that MLG Columbus had a record viewership.
Its important to note that a large portion of their business does not come from the events themselves, they are a conglomerate, that includes a division that generates large amounts of revenue by sourcing out their esports expertise to construct the multiplayer competitive environments for other games(they built the online environments for a number of AAA games such as Guitar Hero III, and Call of Duty: World At War).
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On June 20 2011 11:37 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 11:25 DeepBlu2 wrote:
I really hate to sound like a total ass, but if there is one thing I don't want Blizzard to do, it's make the game easier. I'm in FULL support of them adding different maps for lower leagues, and if they want to, easier mechanics. But, them making the higher leagues, especially pro level suffer because they are trying to appeal to casual players, I will be pretty angry. There is NOTHING stopping them from adding different maps/mechanics at lower leagues.
It would save so much trouble, both for the players and Blizzard. People should be less worried about whether "Starcraft 2 being as big as Sports" and be more worried about who is going to win the next GSL. You talking about "E-Sports" growing in the west is as beneficial as me talking about who is going to win the next Stanley Cup, as most of you would not care.
E-Sports will grow by itself and it only needs a large player base (which it already has). Making the Game easier make more money, but would not necessarily increase the growth of E-Sports, in fact, it would most likely piss people off. E-Sports will be big. There is no point in predicting how big seeing as there are tournament with 100,000+ being poured into it. Don't worry about Korea. Brood War will be alive there for more than a decade(s). This is something you can not change, and SHOULD NOT change. Starcraft 2 is significantly less difficult then Brood War and was very, very successful. Things like Auto-mine and SmartCast made Starcraft 2 much, much less appealing to me yet got them many more purchases and helped with the playerbase. This still, in turn hurts the entertainment value and skill ceiling. So keep in mind that "Playerbase does not relate necessarily to the Growth of E-Sports/Entertainment Value" Where is the offramp that you took so I can follow... I'm not sure anyone here said they should make SC2 easier? They just said that it should be more accessible to casual gamers. Pro football is hard but you can play in your backyard. As I mentioned earlier, making it accesible doesn't have to change the game. BGH was fun as hell to the casual gamer but could not be further from competitive play. Same thing can happen with SC2. It can still be competitive whilst having maps, mods etc for the casual gamer. As for the Stanley Cup, some people are quite passionate about it and surprise, can actually make a decent living playing the sport. I think you might be confusing succesfull with world domination. BW was only succesfull in Korea, I think Blizzard is trying to avoid a repeat. The only way to do this is grow a base outside of Korea. Casual gamers are what will do this. I am sorry if this offends you but it is the truth. As for MBS etc ruining the game, it has been debated before and isn't relevant as BW is still going strong. If you don't like SC2, stick with BW. This almost looks like a post of someone who saw a SC2 topic and thought, hey how can I bash the game and promote the awesomeness of BW. Doesn't help anybody. Edit: Clarity
I'm not stating the Stanley Cup isn't popular. I'm saying most of the people on here don't care about the Stanley cup and a lot of popular sports. Take in to account "Most" not "All". I'm not bashing Starcraft 2, in fact I play it more than Brood War now because Brood War is basically dead out of Korea NOW. Your point is not valid saying Brood War was not successful outside of korea. Just because the fan base was much smaller outside of Korea, gives no indication that it was a Failure because it didn't manage to make a shitload of money like Starcraft 2. Blizzard isn't trying to avoid a repeat. They are trying to appeal to everyone, which is the whole point. They did make the game easier, and is completely relevant to this thread as the point still stands. Can you give any alternatives to make the game much easier and Ladder/Competitive play appeal to a very casual player base that is turned off from having to lose and not being able to compete in the beginning.?
Games like BGH and fastest map possible appeal to the casual fan base, you are right. However, like stated in the OP, because you can not be competitive to start with like many other games and you have to lose to get better, a lot of people are turned off. You are completely missing the point. It is not a debate about Brood War vs Starcraft2. It's a debate about making Starcraft 2 more popular and appealing to casual players. And from what I can clearly tell, you have not played Brood war passionately (If at all). Brood War did not fail anywhere and Blizzard made the right decisions to make Starcraft 2 even BIGGER than Brood War was. They were successful at this and made very good choices. Most people would not be here if they had not done what they did. The Starcraft community growing Ten fold is a great thing. You fail to see though that not having 300000 people watch does not mean something has failed. Starcraft 2 has set higher standards in prize pools and Stream views. Brood War had less of both, but succeeded because less was expected. If Brood war was successful, and players are being payed 300 grand and will be for the next decade, then there is no reason Starcraft 2 can't do the same. There is no reason for it not to be 600000 10 years from now as well.
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On June 20 2011 11:49 DeepBlu2 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 11:37 Probulous wrote:On June 20 2011 11:25 DeepBlu2 wrote:
I really hate to sound like a total ass, but if there is one thing I don't want Blizzard to do, it's make the game easier. I'm in FULL support of them adding different maps for lower leagues, and if they want to, easier mechanics. But, them making the higher leagues, especially pro level suffer because they are trying to appeal to casual players, I will be pretty angry. There is NOTHING stopping them from adding different maps/mechanics at lower leagues.
It would save so much trouble, both for the players and Blizzard. People should be less worried about whether "Starcraft 2 being as big as Sports" and be more worried about who is going to win the next GSL. You talking about "E-Sports" growing in the west is as beneficial as me talking about who is going to win the next Stanley Cup, as most of you would not care.
E-Sports will grow by itself and it only needs a large player base (which it already has). Making the Game easier make more money, but would not necessarily increase the growth of E-Sports, in fact, it would most likely piss people off. E-Sports will be big. There is no point in predicting how big seeing as there are tournament with 100,000+ being poured into it. Don't worry about Korea. Brood War will be alive there for more than a decade(s). This is something you can not change, and SHOULD NOT change. Starcraft 2 is significantly less difficult then Brood War and was very, very successful. Things like Auto-mine and SmartCast made Starcraft 2 much, much less appealing to me yet got them many more purchases and helped with the playerbase. This still, in turn hurts the entertainment value and skill ceiling. So keep in mind that "Playerbase does not relate necessarily to the Growth of E-Sports/Entertainment Value" Where is the offramp that you took so I can follow... I'm not sure anyone here said they should make SC2 easier? They just said that it should be more accessible to casual gamers. Pro football is hard but you can play in your backyard. As I mentioned earlier, making it accesible doesn't have to change the game. BGH was fun as hell to the casual gamer but could not be further from competitive play. Same thing can happen with SC2. It can still be competitive whilst having maps, mods etc for the casual gamer. As for the Stanley Cup, some people are quite passionate about it and surprise, can actually make a decent living playing the sport. I think you might be confusing succesfull with world domination. BW was only succesfull in Korea, I think Blizzard is trying to avoid a repeat. The only way to do this is grow a base outside of Korea. Casual gamers are what will do this. I am sorry if this offends you but it is the truth. As for MBS etc ruining the game, it has been debated before and isn't relevant as BW is still going strong. If you don't like SC2, stick with BW. This almost looks like a post of someone who saw a SC2 topic and thought, hey how can I bash the game and promote the awesomeness of BW. Doesn't help anybody. Edit: Clarity I'm not stating the Stanley Cup isn't popular. I'm saying most of the people on here don't care about the Stanley cup and a lot of popular sports. Take in to account "Most" not "All". I'm not bashing Starcraft 2, in fact I play it more than Brood War now because Brood War is basically dead out of Korea NOW. Your point is not valid saying Brood War was not successful outside of korea. Just because the fan base was much smaller outside of Korea, gives no indication that it was a Failure because it didn't manage to make a shitload of money like Starcraft 2. Blizzard isn't trying to avoid a repeat. They are trying to appeal to everyone, which is the whole point. They did make the game easier, and is completely relevant to this thread as the point still stands. Can you give any alternatives to make the game much easier and Ladder/Competitive play appeal to a very casual player base that is turned off from having to lose and not being able to compete in the beginning.?
Games like BGH and fastest map possible appeal to the casual fan base, you are right. However, like stated in the OP, because you can not be competitive to start with like many other games and you have to lose to get better, a lot of people are turned off. You are completely missing the point. It is not a debate about Brood War vs Starcraft2. It's a debate about making Starcraft 2 more popular and appealing to casual players.
Better chat system, a CLAN system, a daily tournament just like in WC3, for starters.
a bnet 2.0 not 0.2
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On June 20 2011 11:51 Greatness wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 11:49 DeepBlu2 wrote:On June 20 2011 11:37 Probulous wrote:On June 20 2011 11:25 DeepBlu2 wrote:
I really hate to sound like a total ass, but if there is one thing I don't want Blizzard to do, it's make the game easier. I'm in FULL support of them adding different maps for lower leagues, and if they want to, easier mechanics. But, them making the higher leagues, especially pro level suffer because they are trying to appeal to casual players, I will be pretty angry. There is NOTHING stopping them from adding different maps/mechanics at lower leagues.
It would save so much trouble, both for the players and Blizzard. People should be less worried about whether "Starcraft 2 being as big as Sports" and be more worried about who is going to win the next GSL. You talking about "E-Sports" growing in the west is as beneficial as me talking about who is going to win the next Stanley Cup, as most of you would not care.
E-Sports will grow by itself and it only needs a large player base (which it already has). Making the Game easier make more money, but would not necessarily increase the growth of E-Sports, in fact, it would most likely piss people off. E-Sports will be big. There is no point in predicting how big seeing as there are tournament with 100,000+ being poured into it. Don't worry about Korea. Brood War will be alive there for more than a decade(s). This is something you can not change, and SHOULD NOT change. Starcraft 2 is significantly less difficult then Brood War and was very, very successful. Things like Auto-mine and SmartCast made Starcraft 2 much, much less appealing to me yet got them many more purchases and helped with the playerbase. This still, in turn hurts the entertainment value and skill ceiling. So keep in mind that "Playerbase does not relate necessarily to the Growth of E-Sports/Entertainment Value" Where is the offramp that you took so I can follow... I'm not sure anyone here said they should make SC2 easier? They just said that it should be more accessible to casual gamers. Pro football is hard but you can play in your backyard. As I mentioned earlier, making it accesible doesn't have to change the game. BGH was fun as hell to the casual gamer but could not be further from competitive play. Same thing can happen with SC2. It can still be competitive whilst having maps, mods etc for the casual gamer. As for the Stanley Cup, some people are quite passionate about it and surprise, can actually make a decent living playing the sport. I think you might be confusing succesfull with world domination. BW was only succesfull in Korea, I think Blizzard is trying to avoid a repeat. The only way to do this is grow a base outside of Korea. Casual gamers are what will do this. I am sorry if this offends you but it is the truth. As for MBS etc ruining the game, it has been debated before and isn't relevant as BW is still going strong. If you don't like SC2, stick with BW. This almost looks like a post of someone who saw a SC2 topic and thought, hey how can I bash the game and promote the awesomeness of BW. Doesn't help anybody. Edit: Clarity I'm not stating the Stanley Cup isn't popular. I'm saying most of the people on here don't care about the Stanley cup and a lot of popular sports. Take in to account "Most" not "All". I'm not bashing Starcraft 2, in fact I play it more than Brood War now because Brood War is basically dead out of Korea NOW. Your point is not valid saying Brood War was not successful outside of korea. Just because the fan base was much smaller outside of Korea, gives no indication that it was a Failure because it didn't manage to make a shitload of money like Starcraft 2. Blizzard isn't trying to avoid a repeat. They are trying to appeal to everyone, which is the whole point. They did make the game easier, and is completely relevant to this thread as the point still stands. Can you give any alternatives to make the game much easier and Ladder/Competitive play appeal to a very casual player base that is turned off from having to lose and not being able to compete in the beginning.?
Games like BGH and fastest map possible appeal to the casual fan base, you are right. However, like stated in the OP, because you can not be competitive to start with like many other games and you have to lose to get better, a lot of people are turned off. You are completely missing the point. It is not a debate about Brood War vs Starcraft2. It's a debate about making Starcraft 2 more popular and appealing to casual players. Better chat system, a CLAN system, a daily tournament just like in WC3, for starters. a bnet 2.0 not 0.2
Bnet 2.0 is terrible which is kind of funny but I don't think having a daily tournament made thousands of people more attracted to WC3. The only way to directly create more sale revenue and popularity is to make the game more appealing to different fanbases. By the way, update your quote please. I added more to the post, took nothing out, however.
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Very nice read.
I thought about this myself. I may want to add that even if it`s a bubble, it won't mean that SC2-esports will totally collapse. It just means that our short/mid-term expectations were too high.
It was similar with the Dot-com bubble.
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I kind of disagree with the first sentiment regarding game design, player pool, etc. But this is a small gripe.
Excellent article though very well written, and pertinent information.
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I couldn't really ignore an article like this.
I don't like it, the article that is.
As soon as I read it a few things popped out at me I wanted to write a rebuttal article with as many pretty pictures by time is short so I'll type until my frozen meal is done in the microwave.
I read the entire article, then the 'Things to Look For' and 'Conclusion' segments and nothing written there is new or interesting. Heart of the Swarm is single players focused, meaning there will not be an overhaul on the multiplayer aspect, there will be improvements but it will not increase the growth significantly. Improvements will be made but its not going change much.
Non-Koreans are crucial for the growth of the scene outside of Korea with events like MLG, but that is obvious, everyone and their cat knows that.
Whether or not the current tournaments survive is also irrelevant. The point he should be making is 'will tournaments (especially the current set we have ie GSL and MLG) grow or not'. The main thing to consider is if there is still the competition out there and that there are players out there willing the take time to perform for their audience. And that depends on how many people are given their time and money to support these events.
Basically the first comment posted by Sprouted sums up what the OP was trying to say more completely and concisely in two lines.
My food has beeped, but in my opinion (because the previous points have been fact) we are going through a wave that could easily hit a wall if things are not always improving, which I think they are. But people also need to wake up to the fact that everything is not always hunky dory and the problems and in turn fixes are not what were outlined in the article.
Edit: Turns out my food needs a little more time. In which I will say one final thought:
I probably should not have written something which goes so against the utilitarian view but it had to be done because I don't believe this article should get the attention it deserves but mentioning obvious already argued to death points. I think it's something that should definitely be discussed but the author fails to bring up anything new, and I don't agree with some of those points such as the TSL being the most well delivered tournament especially when considering the growth of the scene.
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On June 20 2011 11:40 InvalidID wrote:
Great post, but MLG is indeed quite financially sound. I can find no revenue information from later then 2009, but in 2009 they had ~50 million in revenue. They secured an additional 10 million in capital from an institutional investor to expand operations in December, so presumably they are doing fine. They have partnerships with major advertising and media agencies, and you have to recognize how valuable of a demographic we are: 18-24, highly educated, lots of disposable income.
Its important to note that a large portion of their business does not come from the events themselves, they are a conglomerate, that includes a division that generates large amounts of revenue by sourcing out their esports expertise to construct the multiplayer competitive environments for other games(they built the online environments for a number of AAA games such as Guitar Hero III, and Call of Duty: World At War).
An interesting point didn't know that. I realize I was being quite presumptuous in my post, but I still am not 100% sold on their sustainability. The reason is probably because I am an old school gamer. For each of the games that I played competitively a new ladder/tourney system sprung up - and each time they were considered to be the "next big thing.". It sometimes it seemed like the bigger they were the faster they fell. So maybe MLG is secure today (which I thankful for), but this particular medium has such low profit margins and tight competition that they may not continue to be. Things are changing though - businesses are realizing that the money in advertising is in targeted ads. This changes everything about the E-Sports business, really.
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Great read. One thing I would like to point out is that, with each big western event less than a week long, viewership has skyrocketed, breaking the previous tournament's record. We're seeing the SC2 viewership compete with game-types that have been around for 8+ years. We're talking about communities and players who have had 8 years to learn the rules and basics of DotA and DotA clones, and even more time to familiarize themselves with the intricacies of FPSes like Halo/Quake or Counter-Strike. Do you think DotA players were as rampant, widespread, and competitive within the first 10 months the game/mod came out?
It's easy to be terrified of this growth, because it's like everything else in the world, it will someday die down. I don't mean the community or E-Sports, but the growth in general. There are so many people involved right now that LOVE E-Sports, and they're not going to one day sit back and say "Gee, I was young and stupid back then!" Look at all the idiotic and ridiculous posters on TL.net that we've all learned to loathe and mock as they invade what was once a much smaller, and friendlier community. You think people come here because they enjoy trolling all the time and being trolled? The quick answer is, "no." They come here because they share a love of SC2 and E-Sports. As stupid as they may show it, that's what it really boils down to.
Does this mean that these fans and sponsors won't be disappointed one day? No, there's a lot of room for disappointment and it's bound to happen. NASL as a long term season hasn't done as good as some might have hoped, as well as other very risky adventures into the E-Sports scene. This is how the world works. Even in non-bubble economies, there are successes and failures, both big and small.
All that being said, I feel that long term tournaments aren't as appealing for western viewers, especially when it requires so much effort on the viewer's part to keep up with it all. I believe there is a place for league-type systems, but it's small. I think there is a larger demand for big tournaments though.
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Haha Amazing write up and spotlight on this great job
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Saying people in the west watch sports but yet don't play them is not really correct. In understanding all western sports you must realize even if people do not play actively any more the sports they watch most did when they were kids. The pick up game of baseball or football , the real football not soccer in the front yard would be the same memory most now spectators could easily claim ,as well as sports becoming a part of the family nucleus , with the annual Thanksgiving football game or whole families going to watch the town's Friday night football game.
Sadly how much you want to believe otherwise what has happened in brood war with young couples even going on a date to play starcraft together at the local pc bang is not happening in the United States. Sadly the fact is , if you want to accept it or not, the only people who watch sc2 matches are players or maybe the wife or gf of a player who is being encouraged or even forced to watch the matches. The type of person who plays sc2 is still a minority in society compared to the norm and this will probably not change in the next five years if ever.
There is right now no reward or real prestige in general society for being the best at this game. I can go up to 20 people tommorow on the street and ask them who even the legend boxer is and more times than not all 20 will be clueless to what I am talking about. The game right now only appeals to a certain type and still has the very real stigma of that's the game nerds play. Even a game like counterstrike or halo is still considered more acceptable in the eyes of most of the west. The difference between say being the chess world champion and the sc2 world champion is fundamentally different in most off the general populace. Ask most Americans who Gary Kasprov or Bobby Fisher was and they will probably say something like " oh the chess champion or that guy who beat the computer. " Ask the average American do they know what starcraft 2 is and they will probably answer " Oh is that that , new NASA space platform that Regan put up there. "
If you think Starcraft 2 is popular in America then go ask 25 girls if they have heard of it and if they can name one player , I bet if you do you will get maybe 1 or 2 that might say they have.The whole point is in order for the esport to ever be considered a true sport more than a certain kind of person has to care about the game. Right now only in Korea will you see maybe the pretty cheerleader sitting with the starcraft 2 studs. Hate to break the news but in America starcraft 2, halo and counterstrike are not even considered sports.
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I hope and wish it's a wave.
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'Brood Wars' .. What? You just lost me there ..
Misspelling 'Brood War' is bannable right?
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Many people are too optimistic/taking things for granted. In the West, new games overtake old ones, and SC2 is so popular is simply because it is currently the new flashy game.
I believe e-sports can be mainstream, it can be very easy or very hard depending on how you look at it, because all parties must do their share.
1) Blizzard. SC2 becomes free to play. (Or at least free 1 week for everyone, blizz)
2) Facebook. Make a SC2 game-app that is addictive as shit and also teaches the basic functions of each unit. (Starjewelled maybe?)
3) Facebook again. Another app that acts as a Fantasy League/Make-your-bracket for pro-gaming. Give out sponsor products as prizes, and make sure brackets are easy to update/check/broadcast to the world.
3) Tournaments. Big money, bigger production value, even bigger advertising. Player-cam at all times is important. Tournaments must get together and decide which events constitute as "majors" so that player legacies and league history can be created (like OSL)
4) Players. More personality, some people require grooming, nicer uniforms.
5) Hollywood. Make a blockbuster movie, about a kid from the gutter who has Star-talent and becomes the next bonjwa. Make sure there are millions of cheering fangirls in the audience.
6) Fans. Just spread the word, link streams to your friends. Load up multiple streams if you can whenever you are in front of the computer. Participate in that facebook app stuff/fantasy league/bracket and announce it to your friends.
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On June 20 2011 11:22 Ruscour wrote:
What on earth is 'brood wars'?
He knows what Brood War is. He's quoting the OP. Was definitely just a typo though.
While E-Sports is clearly much bigger in Korea than it is here, it doesn’t seem like SC2 is nearly as big in Korea as Brood Wars.
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To keep more casual players interested there is custom games, so ladder does not need to be changed to be more fitting to casual players, they can just go play custom games like zealot frenzy or nexus wars right? I started playing Starcraft 2 with 9 friends, I was the only one that continued laddering the rest of them all started playing custom games they enjoy it and also watch the GSL.
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On June 20 2011 12:30 DeepBlu2 wrote:He knows what Brood War is. He's quoting the OP. Was definitely just a typo though. Show nested quote + While E-Sports is clearly much bigger in Korea than it is here, it doesn’t seem like SC2 is nearly as big in Korea as Brood Wars.
I think there was a rule about misspelling 'brood war' is bannable. im like 80% sure of it!
On topic: I still don't think it's best leave the game to Browder and his gang.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216428
read this if you don't know what im saying ..
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I would not call it a bubble. I'm fairly confident that e-Sports as a whole is growing exponentially, and it's not going anywhere soon. Starcraft itself might die off eventually, but it definitely isn't anywhere close to the end and won't be until long after Legacy of the Void has been out. SC2 has a long life ahead of it.
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Very satisfying read. (also gave me a chuckle due to the Creep Spread)
Regarding your first two 'Things to Look For':
While very correct, I highly doubt that they will have that big of an impact on the direction that Starcraft will take. The way I see it is that casual gamers are not that big on hardcore strategy games in general, because improvement isn't their main goal (and strategy games, in my opinion, are only fun when you are in fact improving, even slowly).
What I would suggest is some kind of a system similar to the campaign where the adviser of your race (why am I thinking of the adjutant, I'm Random >.>) would point things out as you play.
Ex: In Echoes of the Future, you start with a bunch of un-powered buildings, and the game highlights the optimal spots where a pylon needs to be placed.
Btw, awesome read once again
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On June 20 2011 11:49 DeepBlu2 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 20 2011 11:37 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 11:25 DeepBlu2 wrote:
I really hate to sound like a total ass, but if there is one thing I don't want Blizzard to do, it's make the game easier. I'm in FULL support of them adding different maps for lower leagues, and if they want to, easier mechanics. But, them making the higher leagues, especially pro level suffer because they are trying to appeal to casual players, I will be pretty angry. There is NOTHING stopping them from adding different maps/mechanics at lower leagues.
It would save so much trouble, both for the players and Blizzard. People should be less worried about whether "Starcraft 2 being as big as Sports" and be more worried about who is going to win the next GSL. You talking about "E-Sports" growing in the west is as beneficial as me talking about who is going to win the next Stanley Cup, as most of you would not care.
E-Sports will grow by itself and it only needs a large player base (which it already has). Making the Game easier make more money, but would not necessarily increase the growth of E-Sports, in fact, it would most likely piss people off. E-Sports will be big. There is no point in predicting how big seeing as there are tournament with 100,000+ being poured into it. Don't worry about Korea. Brood War will be alive there for more than a decade(s). This is something you can not change, and SHOULD NOT change. Starcraft 2 is significantly less difficult then Brood War and was very, very successful. Things like Auto-mine and SmartCast made Starcraft 2 much, much less appealing to me yet got them many more purchases and helped with the playerbase. This still, in turn hurts the entertainment value and skill ceiling. So keep in mind that "Playerbase does not relate necessarily to the Growth of E-Sports/Entertainment Value" Where is the offramp that you took so I can follow... I'm not sure anyone here said they should make SC2 easier? They just said that it should be more accessible to casual gamers. Pro football is hard but you can play in your backyard. As I mentioned earlier, making it accesible doesn't have to change the game. BGH was fun as hell to the casual gamer but could not be further from competitive play. Same thing can happen with SC2. It can still be competitive whilst having maps, mods etc for the casual gamer. As for the Stanley Cup, some people are quite passionate about it and surprise, can actually make a decent living playing the sport. I think you might be confusing succesfull with world domination. BW was only succesfull in Korea, I think Blizzard is trying to avoid a repeat. The only way to do this is grow a base outside of Korea. Casual gamers are what will do this. I am sorry if this offends you but it is the truth. As for MBS etc ruining the game, it has been debated before and isn't relevant as BW is still going strong. If you don't like SC2, stick with BW. This almost looks like a post of someone who saw a SC2 topic and thought, hey how can I bash the game and promote the awesomeness of BW. Doesn't help anybody. Edit: Clarity I'm not stating the Stanley Cup isn't popular. I'm saying most of the people on here don't care about the Stanley cup and a lot of popular sports. Take in to account "Most" not "All". I'm not bashing Starcraft 2, in fact I play it more than Brood War now because Brood War is basically dead out of Korea NOW. Your point is not valid saying Brood War was not successful outside of korea. Just because the fan base was much smaller outside of Korea, gives no indication that it was a Failure because it didn't manage to make a shitload of money like Starcraft 2. Blizzard isn't trying to avoid a repeat. They are trying to appeal to everyone, which is the whole point. They did make the game easier, and is completely relevant to this thread as the point still stands. Can you give any alternatives to make the game much easier and Ladder/Competitive play appeal to a very casual player base that is turned off from having to lose and not being able to compete in the beginning.? Games like BGH and fastest map possible appeal to the casual fan base, you are right. However, like stated in the OP, because you can not be competitive to start with like many other games and you have to lose to get better, a lot of people are turned off. You are completely missing the point. It is not a debate about Brood War vs Starcraft2. It's a debate about making Starcraft 2 more popular and appealing to casual players. And from what I can clearly tell, you have not played Brood war passionately (If at all). Brood War did not fail anywhere and Blizzard made the right decisions to make Starcraft 2 even BIGGER than Brood War was. They were successful at this and made very good choices. Most people would not be here if they had not done what they did. The Starcraft community growing Ten fold is a great thing. You fail to see though that not having 300000 people watch does not mean something has failed. Starcraft 2 has set higher standards in prize pools and Stream views. Brood War had less of both, but succeeded because less was expected. If Brood war was successful, and players are being payed 300 grand and will be for the next decade, then there is no reason Starcraft 2 can't do the same. There is no reason for it not to be 600000 10 years from now as well.
People should be less worried about whether "Starcraft 2 being as big as Sports" and be more worried about who is going to win the next GSL. You talking about "E-Sports" growing in the west is as beneficial as me talking about who is going to win the next Stanley Cup, as most of you would not care
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I'm not stating the Stanley Cup isn't popular. I'm saying most of the people on here don't care about the Stanley cup and a lot of popular sports. Take in to account "Most" not "All".
You are right when you say I don’t follow. My understanding of what you trying to say is that because everyone here is here because of Starcraft, talking about ESPORTS in the foreigner scene is pointless? If so, what is the issue? We don’t have to compete with regular sports to grow. But I still don’t get what you trying to say here.
I'm not bashing Starcraft 2, in fact I play it more than Brood War now because Brood War is basically dead out of Korea NOW. Your point is not valid saying Brood War was not successful outside of korea. Just because the fan base was much smaller outside of Korea, gives no indication that it was a Failure because it didn't manage to make a shitload of money like Starcraft 2.
I should have phrased that better. It is obvious that Blizzard never intended BW to be a competitive sport. What I meant that was, this time they are intending SC2 to be competitive and have built the game accordingly.
Blizzard isn't trying to avoid a repeat. They are trying to appeal to everyone, which is the whole point.
No. I am certain that Blizzard is trying to avoid a repeat of what happened with BW. They actively built SC2 to be competitive and appeal to everyone. I would think Blizzard would consider SC2 a failure if competition was only popular in Korea.
They did make the game easier, and is completely relevant to this thread as the point still stands.
Note I didn’t say that SC2 wasn’t easier; I just said no-one is asking them to make it more so.
Can you give any alternatives to make the game much easier and Ladder/Competitive play appeal to a very casual player base that is turned off from having to lose and not being able to compete in the beginning.?
Games like BGH and fastest map possible appeal to the casual fan base, you are right. However, like stated in the OP, because you can not be competitive to start with like many other games and you have to lose to get better, a lot of people are turned off.
You misunderstand. A game that is built to be competitive has to stay competitive. It has to be hard which turns people off. The way to get people to play is not to make the game easier, I never suggested that. What is needed is alternative ways of playing. I think Blizzard did a great job with the campaign. Yes, battlenet could be improved, custom games could be improved. These things, not a change to the competitive side, are what will bring in new people. I never suggested otherwise.
You are completely missing the point. It is not a debate about Brood War vs Starcraft2. It's a debate about making Starcraft 2 more popular and appealing to casual players.
Touche`.
And from what I can clearly tell, you have not played Brood war passionately (If at all).
I am not even going there. Don’t state what you don’t know.
Brood War did not fail anywhere and Blizzard made the right decisions to make Starcraft 2 even BIGGER than Brood War was. They were successful at this and made very good choices. Most people would not be here if they had not done what they did. The Starcraft community growing Ten fold is a great thing. You fail to see though that not having 300000 people watch does not mean something has failed. Starcraft 2 has set higher standards in prize pools and Stream views. Brood War had less of both, but succeeded because less was expected. If Brood war was successful, and players are being payed 300 grand and will be for the next decade, then there is no reason Starcraft 2 can't do the same. There is no reason for it not to be 600000 10 years from now as well.
See above. I should have worded my point better, but I am essentially agreeing with you. This is exactly why I see it being successful.
In summary, I am trying to point out that SC2 had to be built for casual gaming as well as competitive gaming. The only way to do this is to have the core as competitive as possible, with additional features built for the casual gamer. Mods, custom games etc are what will bring in new people who cannot handle losing.
This is the last thing I will say on this. If you want more clarification, take it to PMs. Thanks
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Anyone else feel like its blizzard's turn to start promoting e-sports? Look at Riot and their tournament for dreamhack, huge success.
I've told all my friends about sc2 and could only get one interested. But of course I dont have the millions of dollars blizz has.
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good post really nice read, interesting topic
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Mods, custom games etc are what will bring in new people who cannot handle losing.
I'm just going to say that casual players aren't the ones who can't handle losing, those are the competitive players. That's why they're competitive. People who rage a lot or who are afraid to ladder may not be good, but they're certainly not casual.
Casual players don't care about losing. They'll lose, and think "uh... why am I playing this it's pointless" and stop playing, because they aren't interested in their own progression of skill but the progression of the storyline/gameplay. This doesn't actually contradict anything else you've said, but I just wanted to point that out.
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On June 20 2011 12:38 LeLeech wrote:
Anyone else feel like its blizzard's turn to start promoting e-sports? Look at Riot and their tournament for dreamhack, huge success.
I've told all my friends about sc2 and could only get one interested. But of course I dont have the millions of dollars blizz has.
I agree. I'd like to see Blizzard doing a better job of promoting these big tournaments. Sure, they have a post about dreamhack and the GSL super tournament on the SC2 site, but within battle.net itself it's just a graphic on a ticker you can click to open a webpage.
I'd like to see them do what riot did and really promote the current big tournament from within the game. For example, when the next MLG is about to start, put a large splash screen with the tournament info displaying to the user when they login to b.net, so if users don't know about it they immediately get the idea it's a big thing in the game community and check it out.
It would be nice to see Blizzard show up at these big events as well, even if they bring 10 PCs and just have a booth to show the HoTS gameplay demo the press saw weeks ago, it'll bring more fans to the events. I have 3 friends who never touched multiplayer, and bought the game just for the single player, and I know they would show up to an MLG or a dreamhack (if it was local enough) to check out single player, and I'm sure they'd check out the HUGE tournament going on afterwards.
I think Riot Games has done a great job of promoting their product, even though the tournament itself suffered from several problems before the finals in dreamhack, it has done well, and their viewership shows. Time for Blizzard to step up.
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Well from looking at recent demographics, my guess would be that its a wave. Kids are playing videogames and browsing the web more. And they're playing sports and exercising less.
Check out these results from the US Beureau of Labor Statistics American Time Use Survey:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/atus_09142004.pdf
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/atus_06242009.pdf
From 2004 to 2009: Total leisure time is holding steady at 0% growth. About 5.3 hours of leisure per day.
In terms of absolute hours, TV is still largest category across the board:
80% of leisure time is spent watching TV for people over 65
50% of leisure time is spent watching TV for people under 24
Those percentages have stayed roughly the same from 2004 to 2009
In terms of % growth:
Playing videogames and browsing the web recreationally is up 30%
Reading is steady at 0% (people who moan that kids don't read nowadays are wrong)
TV is steady at 0%
Other category steady at 0%
Relaxing and Thinking is down 10%
Socializing and Communicating is down 10%
Sports, Exercise, and Recreation is down 20%
All the figures have been trending steadily over the duration of the survey
As you can see, the "playing videogames and browsing the web recreationally" is the only leisure category experiencing growth. And most of it is from "Sports, Exercise, and Recreation" category. If you were an entertainment exec looking to make a long term investment, which demographic would you target? Athletic sports, or esports?
And to get an idea about the age differential, here's some absolute figures:
2004: Age > 65 spent 0.25 hours per day playing videogames and browsing the web recreationally
2004: Age < 24 spent 0.60 hours per day playing videogames and browsing the web recreationally
2009: Age > 65 spent 0.35 hours per day playing videogames and browsing the web recreationally
2009: Age < 24 spent 0.85 hours per day playing videogames and browsing the web recreationally
There are many marketing surveys out there that will dispute these results. But they are often terribly biased in order to push an agenda. This survey is conducted by the US government and the results are published for free, which is about as unbiased as you can get.
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I don't understand why people are suddenly demanding that Blizzard does more for E-Sports because they already are doing everything they can without being a nuisance to the community.
SC2's biggest strength is that Blizzard isn't the one running these tournaments; the community has been the main organizers of all these tournaments. We're having all sorts of groups making tournaments and it's awesome because it means that we don't need Blizzard to run a single tournament every month or rely on just GSL, MLG.
People who are into the competitive SC2 scene got to TeamLiquid, (do any of us actually go to the main SC2 site???). The most Blizzard can do for the casual audience is put out links on their site and they're already doing that. They have links to Dreamhack, MLG, NASL, GSL. The problem is that they can't advertise every single tournaments since there is so many damn tournaments everyday and that's a good problem to have. Blizzard also has links inside the B.NET, but most people don't want to click them because it puts them out of the game and into the browser. What they can do is put a direct video feed to the big tournaments, but most streams you have to pay to get high quality video so they can't do that (and it would piss off people if they lag when they go to B.NET for tech support/whatever).
Blizzard should stick to what they do best: making games, making patches, and making replay/spectator features. They shouldn't be held responsible for what goes on with SC2 E-Sports (for the most part).
The community is responsible for maintaining this growth, and quite frankly that's a good thing because the community does it a lot better.
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Nice effort, but a few words of caution regarding the Tournament Finances (something that I find myself needing to repeat over and over): it is impossible for me or you to properly assess the financial health of any of the organizations you mentioned. We simply do not know exactly what numbers they pull or what their timeline is like.
Doing business is a very complex and often misleading thing, for all we know the GSL might be doing far better than other tournaments that, on the surface, might look more stable. Trying to guess is pointless.
Also, I remember reading that Blizzard does support some tournaments by backing (insuring) the prize pool.
Personally, I am fairly optimistic.
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That was an excellent read, I'm hoping for the wave.
I think streaming may be a great way for foreigners to financially support themselves, allowing full time practice. Or help anyway, its definitely awesome that players like destiny can support themselves+purely on viewership.
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I think there's a lot of passion and energy going into debating something that's fundamentally a flawed assumption: that SC2 has to follow the same path BW did to widespread fame/success. I think the OP is right and that widespread casual followings are first and foremost in attracting sponsors, only then will a robust competitive community be of lasting value.
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I think Blizzard can also help in keeping new players into the game:
- Do not make the game easier (in fact make it harder)
- Advertise tournaments and embed stream links on the main page of bnet. (Let the community run the tournaments, but Blizzard needs to promote it). Even advertise in Starcraft 2 in WoW.
- Introduce unranked auto matchmaking, it would help new players (and scared players) not quit after a week. If you look at stats for most games, unranked is much more popular.
- Basically make bnet for fun. Right now it's just a 'Join game' button where you press it to get raped.
In terms of the e-sports side:
- Foreigners need to seriously start lifting, because 'Koreans vs Foreigners' attract so much viewers and drama, as long as it is not so one-sided.
- The first step to reach the masses is to penetrate the mainstream gaming websites.e-sports needs to be on the front pages of IGN, Gamespot, Gametrailer etc...
Basically Starcraft 2 and e-sports needs much more exposure and advertising, from within b.net to mainstream sites.
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On June 20 2011 12:53 Hatsu wrote:
Nice effort, but a few words of caution regarding the Tournament Finances (something that I find myself needing to repeat over and over): it is impossible for me or you to properly assess the financial health of any of the organizations you mentioned. We simply do not know exactly what numbers they pull or what their timeline is like.
Doing business is a very complex and often misleading thing, for all we know the GSL might be doing far better than other tournaments that, on the surface, might look more stable. Trying to guess is pointless.
Also, I remember reading that Blizzard does support some tournaments by backing (insuring) the prize pool.
Personally, I am fairly optimistic.
agreed since they are not publicly held companies. But NASL does worry me, the fact that they had a stealth "stream quality change" (480p is now also premium) does not give me high hopes.
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On June 20 2011 12:14 deadjawa wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 11:40 InvalidID wrote:
Great post, but MLG is indeed quite financially sound. I can find no revenue information from later then 2009, but in 2009 they had ~50 million in revenue. They secured an additional 10 million in capital from an institutional investor to expand operations in December, so presumably they are doing fine. They have partnerships with major advertising and media agencies, and you have to recognize how valuable of a demographic we are: 18-24, highly educated, lots of disposable income.
Its important to note that a large portion of their business does not come from the events themselves, they are a conglomerate, that includes a division that generates large amounts of revenue by sourcing out their esports expertise to construct the multiplayer competitive environments for other games(they built the online environments for a number of AAA games such as Guitar Hero III, and Call of Duty: World At War). An interesting point didn't know that. I realize I was being quite presumptuous in my post, but I still am not 100% sold on their sustainability. The reason is probably because I am an old school gamer. For each of the games that I played competitively a new ladder/tourney system sprung up - and each time they were considered to be the "next big thing.". It sometimes it seemed like the bigger they were the faster they fell. So maybe MLG is secure today (which I thankful for), but this particular medium has such low profit margins and tight competition that they may not continue to be. Things are changing though - businesses are realizing that the money in advertising is in targeted ads. This changes everything about the E-Sports business, really.
I actually found a (fairly) obscure interview with the CEO of MLG: http://www.vvv-gaming.com/forum/topic/49048-losers-bracket-round-60/
The interview is ridiculously long, but, I took the following away from it:
-He had some sort of role in connecting TLO with Sony Erricson as a personal sponsor for the MLG 2011 season(I wonder what happened to that with TLOs injury) . MLG is apparently actively marketing Starcraft players to sponsors, and they feel individual sponsorships are more critical then team sponsorships.
-He thinks that well mannered players have a generally better chance of getting personal sponsors then BM players, and that brand sponsors actively check social media for the player reactions. The players brand is generally more important then their competitive success.
-He thinks that player image development is as important of a thing to esports as the events themselves. Players he cited as successfully developing their image: Tsquared (apperently he is the Boxer of Halo), Idra, Huk
-They have some sort of partnership with IMG. Googling IMG reveals them to apparently be the worlds largest sports distributor, and a major sports talent agency.
-They are focused on choosing games that will be profitable. The belief that just because a game is good is insufficient: it needs to be able to generate revenue. If a game no longer generates sufficient community interest to be successful it needs to be dropped. He cites the example that while he feels Halo 1 is technically superior mechanically as an esport to Halo:Reach, Halo:Reach's mechanics are more marketable, hence they use that. I see a parallel to SC1 with this.
-Gears of war ruined their chances as a competitive esport through BM in their pro community and general non marketability to mainstream sponsors as a result.
-It doesn't matter if the game is the best out there, what matters is the game's image to advertisers. The sponsors want to see a vibrant community.
-Esports is heading in the right direction, but community recruitment is important. Its important for competitive gamers to be engaging and friendly to "noobs," not hostile to them
-LAN network is good
-He feels that a number of other pro SC2 leagues may have difficulty in financial sustainability, but wishes to work together with NASL
-He is worried that the emergence of IPL will segment the Starcraft market due to over-saturation. He is concerned about IGNs business model.
-MLG is expected to be substantially profitable for the year
-He is worried that the monopolization of Starcraft over the esports market will increase risk.
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it certainly does seem like a bubble doesn't it?
i've watched a ton of games, and it certainly doesn't feel like all this money should be going into the scene. I think people feel like SC2 is the be all end all of RTS games, that if ESPORTS becomes a worldwide phenomenon, SC2 will be at the helm... but will it?
SC2 is not yet at the level of BW, to me it feels like the checkers to chess, it of course has a chance at becoming a better game with upcoming expansions, but that all depends on how much you trust in David Kim and Dustin Browder
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Great post/article. A solid read that will no doubt provide a good foundation of Esports understanding going into the future.
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On June 20 2011 13:09 EtohEtoh wrote:
it certainly does seem like a bubble doesn't it?
i've watched a ton of games, and it certainly doesn't feel like all this money should be going into the scene. I think people feel like SC2 is the be all end all of RTS games, that if ESPORTS becomes a worldwide phenomenon, SC2 will be at the helm... but will it?
SC2 is not yet at the level of BW, to me it feels like the checkers to chess, it of course has a chance at becoming a better game with upcoming expansions, but that all depends on how much you trust in David Kim and Dustin Browder
Well right now it is...
I think people assume ESPORTS = SC2, which is clearly not the case. However SC2 doing well certainly helps the community growth in general. Games will come and go, some will outlast others. The post earlier about the shift in leisure use is particularly important when considering whether this will be successful.
ESPORTS doesn't have to have SC2 at the helm, it is there now but doesn't always have to be. As for the expansions, this has always been the case. People were waiting for SC2, now they wait for expansions, someday they will wait for other games.
As long as there is something watchable out there, people will engage. Right now SC2 is the big thing but honestly if it bombs, it doesn't mean there will be no ESPORTS. It is just the best candidate right now.
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Very interesting read, being an International Trade and Logistics major this article really hit some key points in my opinion but like you noted, it will be ridiculously hard to know if this is a change for the better or a bubble we are all resting on with the hopes that it grows to its hyped potential. We will have to wait and see.
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Of course Starcraft 1 did not retail as a perfect game and its expansion Brood War and its years of patching helped make it become a dominant e-sport.
I feel like your statement of will they make an "improvement" of making the game easier for casual players does not help the game, the game is already easier for casual players than brood war, requiring much less mechanics and to make the game easier would only hurt the competitive scene. I partially believe the reason why Brood War became so huge is because how hard it was to play and how much time you needed to put in to become a great player, I am not saying Starcraft 2 does not require you to put in time to became a great player but I feel like the skills needed to play at a pro scene are not as high as brood war. If this game was easier for casual gamers I would not like playing it, I love a game that requires sheer skill and talent over a game where you move a stick and hope you hit a few people before you die. Thats why Brood war players are so highly regarded they are so skilled at the game and they've put so much time into it. If you want to play casually fine, why would you dumb down the game so its easier to play at a higher level.
Starcraft has been growing rapidly, if you look at the viewers just at the event they have multiplied like rabbits. Even take a look at the viewers on the streams for the events they are always increasing. Big tournaments and small tournaments would not put up such a big prize pool if they did not have the money from their sponsors. As for new features to help the game in tournament environments all we really need is LAN......LAN blizzard.....LAN, you know that thing we had over 13 years ago, that didn't make tournaments have so many difficulties, LAN.
Foreign gamers are creating team houses and there are many that practice their hearts out. You can even read on team liquid that Reign just started a team house. If you're so worried about esports, watch a stream, a tournament, or even buy a premium pass that extras 10 cents or couple bucks helps push esports to the next level and shows your interest and that in return gets sponsor interest.
Starcraft 2 is only growing so I do not know how you can rate GSL B+ compared to MLG, GSL at least gives some money back to the players for their hard work. It also instills something to look forward to during the week, as their is always new play going on and favorite players playing all of the time. MLG is an event that is everyone once in a while, GSL is a consistent event. Casual gamers and viewers will prefer watching starcraft 2 over brood war, they'll see the old graphics and not want to stare at it. Right now Starcraft 2 is just eye candy and has yet to have a need for solid mechanics instilled into it. Starcraft 2 only has room to grow, brood war will become less and less popular slowly over time as the casual and die hard gamers will start to swing towards 2 as it improves (hopefully) over time.
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I honestly think that they need to support the team play aspect of things (not 3v3s or 4v4s but the 1v1 KOTH style) rather than oversaturate 1v1s which is what we're seeing. If IGN's league was teams instead of 1v1s, it would have been perfect. Right now, it's getting up there but there needs to be a big league besides the EG thing. A lot of the other games in the E-Sports industry all have some sort of involvement with the entire team.
For casual play, an unranked ladder would be alright since most people that go into the custom games lobby just look for Starjeweled or something and it wouldn't be scary. There are other things that I wish I could list like making the game a bit more micro intensive but that's Blizzard's department
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On June 20 2011 13:54 GenoPewPew wrote:
I honestly think that they need to support the team play aspect of things (not 3v3s or 4v4s but the 1v1 KOTH style) rather than oversaturate 1v1s which is what we're seeing. If IGN's league was teams instead of 1v1s, it would have been perfect. Right now, it's getting up there but there needs to be a big league besides the EG thing. A lot of the other games in the E-Sports industry all have some sort of involvement with the entire team.
For casual play, an unranked ladder would be alright since most people that go into the custom games lobby just look for Starjeweled or something and it wouldn't be scary. There are other things that I wish I could list like making the game a bit more micro intensive but that's Blizzard's department
That's why the GSTL is so much fun to watch, its was the same in BW PL is sometimes attracts more viewers than OLS/MSL. I especially like the winner league format.
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I'd say it's not a bubble, we have a very strong foundation with a lot of different sponsors for every event, not only one big ass sponsor who does everything. What we need to really "go big" is more non-computer related sponsors.
We got a solid viewer base on streams, we don't really need television, steady results and winners are starting to appear (which is important). We have upsets, which is as important. The story lines and hate matches are there, most of them involving idra and some other dude, but still.
E-sport will grow, but it will grow slow, which is good. If it grows slow, it shows it got a dedicated fanbase, and not just som fluke.
Atleast that's what I think.
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If it is a bubble, i hope it is one of them sponge bob bubbles. You know, the ones that you can make animals out of and send messages that activate upon popping? Ya, dat bubbles.
And if i ever find the person that pops the SC2 bubble, imma wreck them.
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On June 20 2011 14:07 godemperor wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 13:54 GenoPewPew wrote:
I honestly think that they need to support the team play aspect of things (not 3v3s or 4v4s but the 1v1 KOTH style) rather than oversaturate 1v1s which is what we're seeing. If IGN's league was teams instead of 1v1s, it would have been perfect. Right now, it's getting up there but there needs to be a big league besides the EG thing. A lot of the other games in the E-Sports industry all have some sort of involvement with the entire team.
For casual play, an unranked ladder would be alright since most people that go into the custom games lobby just look for Starjeweled or something and it wouldn't be scary. There are other things that I wish I could list like making the game a bit more micro intensive but that's Blizzard's department
That's why the GSTL is so much fun to watch, its was the same in BW PL is sometimes attracts more viewers than OLS/MSL. I especially like the winner league format.
Yeah, I think it's exciting and as a spectator it's fun to watch and its how we learn of up and coming players in the scene
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Fantastic post. While I definitely hope eSports is finally becoming a viable and respectable career in the west, I can't help but worry. Blizzard seem to have their own agenda with Starcraft 2 that isn't in the interests of eSports while claiming the contrary (LAN is critical and they know it).
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Good read. It's a very interesting topic. I hope SC2's popularity is not a bubble, but at this point I guess only time will tell.
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On June 20 2011 14:16 branflakes14 wrote:
Fantastic post. While I definitely hope eSports is finally becoming a viable and respectable career in the west, I can't help but worry. Blizzard seem to have their own agenda with Starcraft 2 that isn't in the interests of eSports while claiming the contrary (LAN is critical and they know it).
LAN is not critical. But what is critical is a little bit of favoritism for and trust of their partners. They need to release a heavily stripped down version of BNET to allow for LAN equivalent play for the major tournaments, to ensure stability. They could just ship it as a packaged rack-mount box(like google does for their business search offerings), with heavy NDA restrictions, and everything would be good.
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On June 20 2011 13:54 GenoPewPew wrote:
I honestly think that they need to support the team play aspect of things (not 3v3s or 4v4s but the 1v1 KOTH style) rather than oversaturate 1v1s which is what we're seeing. If IGN's league was teams instead of 1v1s, it would have been perfect. Right now, it's getting up there but there needs to be a big league besides the EG thing. A lot of the other games in the E-Sports industry all have some sort of involvement with the entire team.
For casual play, an unranked ladder would be alright since most people that go into the custom games lobby just look for Starjeweled or something and it wouldn't be scary. There are other things that I wish I could list like making the game a bit more micro intensive but that's Blizzard's department
It's still going to be played out in 1v1 matches.
How the heck is a ladder service going to have teams?(!)
Again that's the community's responsibility.
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Wow. Read. Awesome. Yeah, I gotta say you're right about that bubble of the player pool. Its the one that I can really speak on the behalf of. I have a couple friends who has hit the 'wall' in the learning curve and they rarely play. Or just stick to customs. The game on a serious note doesn't go well with casual players over the long term.
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Wow really well done, I really hope it's a wave it just grabs everyone you know and evokes such a great emotional response I know I will be playing SC until the bitter end.
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Good read. I definetely think that the two expansions would help to retain casual players interest for an extended period of time, but its too early to tell whether the whole thing is just a huge bubble waiting to burst or not.
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I don't think sc2 is a bubble, but I don't think it is a wave either. It seems to me that it will certainly grow, and that the exchange of worldwide talent alongside gaming venues on the international scale will only benefit the growth of the game. However, the sheer learning curve of the game is very discouraging to new players, although I don't quite know how much fluency with the game impacts spectatorship. With all of these factors in mind, the game appears to be heading towards continual growth, though I predict the growth itself will be moderate, or at least experience a boom during the infancy of the game which will be attenuated as the game progresses in years.
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As others, i have also been thinking this big boom in interest for pro sc2 would decline eventually. the expansions will help keep player interest. more corporation btw diff leagues also help as foreigner vs korean provide the best storyline, entertainment, and skill level for me at least so long as the skill gap doesn't become to great. hopefully fxo does well in the gstl and the 3 code A invites as well.
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I think it is irrelevant to assign grades to tournaments based on financial efficiency while (somewhat) ignoring the most important factor: SPONSORS.
This game will have sponsors as long as it is "the" e-sports, and lets be honest, it has no contenders as of now or in visible future. I mean watching DHS2011, at one point I saw 90k+ people on Day9 stream, and possibly 110-120k+ in all streams which is almost double the number of TSL games, which shows that viewership base is growing steadily. Huge companies like TELIA have commercials directed specifically at gamers while sponsoring these tournaments, as well as brands such as Coca-Cola, Alienware, etc. sponsoring indirectly.
In short, this may be a bubble, but as long as no games can contest for its place in the spotlight, it will not burst.
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Nice work sir
hope blizzard wont let us down
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"best way to predict future is to invent it" - Alan Kay
and just btw your Rating is not convincing in anyway - image s&p would kinda rate like this 8)
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There is an acceptance amongst most people in most sports that winning and losing in a team game is an enjoyable experience. There are millions that play football every week, casually or otherwise, but the ones really interested in it are doing so in small, lower league tournies. Their victories are smaller, but they are still victories.
Starcraft 2 will be considered a success when tournaments for silver and gold league players are significantly MORE common than those for grandmaster league players. Everyone wants to get to GM to show off, but most people simply do not have the dedication to pump enough time to make it worth their while. However, if silver and gold leagers had their own BLIZZARD SUPPORTED tournaments (which is key, btw), SC2 will continue to expand.
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On June 20 2011 09:44 deadjawa wrote:
This “grind” has victimized most of my friends who initially bought the game with high hopes Same for my friends. The problem is, that with a smaller pool of such casual players, it is more likely to get matched against someone who plays more serious, making winning more difficult and driving away even more casual players.
On June 20 2011 13:41 RacerX wrote:
I feel like your statement of will they make an "improvement" of making the game easier for casual players does not help the game, the game is already easier for casual players than brood war, requiring much less mechanics and to make the game easier would only hurt the competitive scene. I would say, that is not the point. Even if SC2 would be mechanically easier, it still would drive many casual gamers away because they get crushed too often. If you are new to RTS, you should be prepared to lose umpteen games with very few random wins inbetween. Beginners get the impression that all other players are like zombies on crack, only trying to kill the opponent as fast as possible and with the most abusive units possible. It is too fast-paced and too hard to understand even for bronze level.
The solution is not to slow down or dumb down Starcraft, but to integreate a playing field for all true casual gamers where they can battle each other. The Blizzard ladder promotes cheeses and all-ins and fast rushes and harass were your workers are attacked and so on. This is too much for many potential players.
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iNfeRnaL
Germany1908 Posts
On June 20 2011 10:22 Golgotha wrote:
you are right OP. our fate depends on Blizzard. if they screw up the expansions then we are fked.
This. How they do the patching and the fact that its a trilogy might just be the bane for SC2 eventually...
On the other hand, new "expansions" re-heat the hype...
But if the game will ever truely become great and as long term motivating as broodwar?
Personally I still have my doubts, but I am still hoping at the same time...
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On June 20 2011 19:18 iNfeRnaL wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 10:22 Golgotha wrote:
you are right OP. our fate depends on Blizzard. if they screw up the expansions then we are fked. This. How they do the patching and the fact that its a trilogy might just be the bane for SC2 eventually... On the other hand, new "expansions" re-heat the hype... But if the game will ever truely become great and as long te+rm motivating as broodwar? Personally I still have my doubts, but I am still hoping at the same time... I see the long expansion release time as both blessing and curse. The blessing is of course that each expansion will get SC2 back into spotlight. Also Blizzard will probably lower the price for Wings of Liberty, getting some new guys to buy that game. But of course a long-lasting appeal cannot be provided with expansion only. After the seconds expansion and some patches, SC2 needs to be able to stand with no further help. Also to know having to buy two expansion to get the full experience could prevent some guys to buy the game.
But I am still optimistic. So far, any Blizzard RTS expansion since SC1 (Broodwar and The Frozen Throne) did a lot for multiplayer. With two expansions, Blizzard can do a lot for multiplayer twice and has the chance to fine-tune the game with the second expansion to new heights.
I think overall, SC2 did a lot already. Getting so many folks excited for a traditional real-time strategy game is no easy feat. Even if SC2 would fail to be the true successor to BW, it shows that RTS is not doomed to be a genre for a very small playerbase.
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The bubble player pool is spot on. The game is cannibalistic on new players. In fps games there is deathmatch which guarantees that if they stay in that server they will probably get a kill. In starcraft there is nothing but ladder and a matchmaker that is too close for comfort.
I think maybe if FFA was pushed more as a gametype we would see more of a casual playerbase. At least that way every player has the chance of killing a wounded player or allying themselves to victory.
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On June 20 2011 19:42 T0fuuu wrote:
I think maybe if FFA was pushed more as a gametype we would see more of a casual playerbase. At least that way every player has the chance of killing a wounded player or allying themselves to victory. I think the Team vs. AI more is suited for casual players. They still have multiplayer, as they play with another human, but don't get overrun if they chose the proper difficulty setting. Of course there is no ladder for this type of game and (beside some achievements) no measure of progress.
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Does the Bubble Burst or the Wave Crash if South Korea continues to dominate every major SC2 Event outside of Sout Korea?
(MMA - MLG Columbus)
(Top 4 Dreamhack Summer = South Korean based players .. 3 of which are South Korean Nationals)
(Dreamhack Invitational = Won by a South Korean)
(Stars War = Won be a South Korean)
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On June 20 2011 20:03 Toons wrote:
Does the Bubble Burst or the Wave Crash if South Korea continues to dominate every major SC2 Event outside of Sout Korea?
I believe that the Bubble Bursts if koreans keep dominating and thats exactly what worries me. You cant keep a wester audience interested in the long run if koreans keep winning the major lan events. The casual viewer who tunes in to a stream maybe once a week (and thats the viewership we need) doesnt see a quality difference between a game foreigner vs foreigner and a game korean vs korean anyway, they want a different kind of entertainment and random korean vs random korean doesnt provide that entertainment.
Our view is so often limited because we mainly consider forum postings on TL, but please remember, people posting on TL (besides americans ofc) are mostly already hardcore fans who watch starcraft several hours a week.
On the German forums there are still plenty of people who dont know who MC is, they know Socke, Idra and Ret, they dont care about MC(not to mention MMA, Bomber etc.) If Koreans keep dominating these events they wont tune in anymore!
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Hmm, for me I think that for COMPETITIVE sc2 to grow, it need to depend on the player pool of sc2 gamers, but rather the player pool for the progamers. Like for example, we need so much more variety in gsl, so I love the mlg-gsl partnership to increase variety in the gsl.
But on the other hand, for blizzard to sustain sc2 and continu patching it and sustaining it, we'll need to give them financial incentive. So buy sc2 people!!!
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I don't get why the practice league has to be removed after 50 games, why not just add in a Play unranked matchmaking option.. yes we have this option with customs, but if there was a big button that said "Play unranked match" and was match-made the same.. finds opponent, picks map.. etc you'd have a lot of people who don't like the high pressure arena that is ladder, playing this rather than stopping altogether once they start losing.
This doesn't help E-sports grow per se, but it keeps people playing and interested in the game. Not everyone wants to play for "rank" should we really punish these players for that, rather than just simply encouraging more players in general.
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On June 20 2011 09:57 atombombforpeace wrote:
In regards to the player pool, I don't think it matters how many people actually play and/or get better in SC2. I think the biggest test is how willing people are to watch Starcraft 2, even if they don't play it. Lots of major sports have a large viewer base that has never touched the game. In order of SC2 to grow, it needs to have a certain spectator appeal to get people who don't play the game much, or at all, to watch and follow the scene.
Indeed, I watched MLG, GSL, Dreamhack and definitely the grand finals of the NASL.
However I do not play starcraft.
In fact, I might buy the game just to be able to watch the replays.
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I stopped reading at TSL is A, GSL is B-
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On June 20 2011 21:02 gds wrote:
I stopped reading at TSL is A, GSL is B-
Maybe you should read why he has given them ratings.
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"Lee Jae Dong proved that a focus on mechanics and execution could solve problems in the StarCraft game strategy."
A. Einstein?
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Great post, really well thought out. I disagree with your opinions on Developer Support, especially
"For the first time, Blizzard has developed an RTS game with a primary focus on developing its E-Sports capability."
In my opinion the focus of Blizzard is to appeal to the mid level player, who watches Husky et al along with big events like the TSL and MLG, but doesn't play the game 'hardcore' (I hate that word).
They want people who will play some team games and custom maps, while being content with Gold and below in 1v1. Of course, the GM league is tailored towards very high level players, but IMO it is superficial addition. The real problems with SC2 as an esport (those that will determine ultimately whether it is a wave or bubble) range from annoyances - no true DND mode - to potentially event ruining - no LAN capability. Putting anti-piracy measures over stability of multi-million dollar operations (MLG/GSL) may be the better business decision, but not the one a developer with a 'primary focus' on E-sports would make.
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No viewers = no ca$h = no esport/sport/show.
My main concerne is that a game like Starcraft will never be able to gather enough viewers arround the world to become a truly major event. Why? It's way too complicated and not entertaining at all for someone who doesn't actually play the game himself.
Sports like football and events like eurovision (lolz) take place only for one reason - people all over the world, from young to old, absolutely love watching them. Take football for instance, it's simple, understandable, dynamic, excitable and exciting to watch even if you've never touched a ball in your life!
Starcraft, on the other hand, takes quite some background knowledge for the viewer to be entertained.
As for the SC community itself and whether it will be growing or decreasing, imo, none. The game has a certain (quite slim, tbh) player base with an even smaller pro-player base that loses and aquires new pro's from time to time.
Same goes for the casual player. It doesn't take long to grasp the fact that the game is actually hard and it gets harder as you get better at it. Some casuals stay after reaching a certain level in the attempt to push for "pro", others become less active or just leave.
SC isn't anything like WoW. Either you work hard or you lose (or casualy play 50-50 in your mid-diamond/masters league). It's not your average "crush the monster and collect your wins" game.
While the latter is, without doubt, a good thing (from the pov of a very old-school gamer), face it, it's not one of those things that make a game super-popular.
Quite sad to admit but if you put together part 1 and part 2 of my post, the chances we'll see SC as a "major-popular event enjoyed all over the world by people of all religions and ages" are quite slim.
p.s.: look at counterstrike... that game, 6 years ago, actually had potential to become as popular as football. Where is it now?
p.p.s.: In general, the idea of e-sports is a very, very young one and we're still living in the times when videogames come and go. Give it 50 years and we might be watching "sc7" on Eurosport.
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On June 20 2011 20:58 Gingerninja wrote:
I don't get why the practice league has to be removed after 50 games, why not just add in a Play unranked matchmaking option.. yes we have this option with customs, but if there was a big button that said "Play unranked match" and was match-made the same.. finds opponent, picks map.. etc you'd have a lot of people who don't like the high pressure arena that is ladder, playing this rather than stopping altogether once they start losing. You can play unranked through custom games.
The issue with an option to play unranked automated matches at any time is that too many players with some skill would like to bash a noob and use this to get a noob opponent.
So why don't we get unranked but still automated skill-matched games? Because too many guys would prefer to practice unranked and only get to ladder when they feel ready.
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Future looks grim if the future of e-sports depends on Blizzard. The cost of expanding the SC2 users base is probably too huge, specially in comparison to free to play games like LoL. With two expansions, you will have to invest 120 dollars just to play SC2 with all the options. On the other hand, a game like LoL is free. Thanks to PC bangs, Broodwar had a really cheap way to appeal to new players. I don't think that one weak deals are be a good alternative.
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On June 20 2011 21:08 Autotroph wrote:Great post, really well thought out. I disagree with your opinions on Developer Support, especially Show nested quote +"For the first time, Blizzard has developed an RTS game with a primary focus on developing its E-Sports capability." In my opinion the focus of Blizzard is to appeal to the mid level player, who watches Husky et al along with big events like the TSL and MLG, but doesn't play the game 'hardcore' (I hate that word). They want people who will play some team games and custom maps, while being content with Gold and below in 1v1. Of course, the GM league is tailored towards very high level players, but IMO it is superficial addition. The real problems with SC2 as an esport (those that will determine ultimately whether it is a wave or bubble) range from annoyances - no true DND mode - to potentially event ruining - no LAN capability. Putting anti-piracy measures over stability of multi-million dollar operations (MLG/GSL) may be the better business decision, but not the one a developer with a 'primary focus' on E-sports would make. I don't agree, while I admit that your reasoning looks valid.
However I consider SC1/Broodwar a game from another era. At that time, LAN was necessary. Today LAN would just be nice to have.
I think that Blizzard tries to appeal to the most hardcore players, but they still develop the game further. Most old pros would be okay with just updated graphics. SC2 is not made to rely on the old pros only, the game aims at a lot of potential pros yet to be discovered.
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On June 20 2011 21:14 Nevsky wrote:
Starcraft, on the other hand, takes quite some background knowledge for the viewer to be entertained. I would say that Starcraft (both 1 and 2) games are relatively easy to understand.
If I watch a game of soccer, I understand nothing. I see guys running, one of them has the ball and kicks it elsewhere. And then we have 1-3 goals per game over 90 minutes. I don't understand why everybody runs in the direction he run.
In a Starcraft match, one sees futuristic military / alien / insectoid armies collide. Someone wins the battle, one can consider the player who wins the battle to be ahead (while this is actually not always the case.) I think that Blizzard did a fantastic job to provide both a clear view on the battle field as well as exciting explosions. Also the bigger the unit, the more powerful the unit. One does not need to know the stats of every unit to see if an army is horrifying or just a small expedition force.
Of course the real strategic genius will only be revealed to a small population of the viewerbase. Most will not see how great (or dumb) a particular strategy or move really was. But SC can still provide an entertaining experience for all who don't play on pro level themselves.
On June 20 2011 21:14 Nevsky wrote:
Same goes for the casual player. It doesn't take long to grasp the fact that the game is actually hard and it gets harder as you get better at it. Some casuals stay after reaching a certain level in the attempt to push for "pro", others become less active or just leave.
SC isn't anything like WoW. Either you work hard or you lose (or casualy play 50-50 in your mid-diamond/masters league). It's not your average "crush the monster and collect your wins" game. Exactly, that is why Blizzard should make it attractive for players who don't seek hard competition.
If I look at my friends, some of them would play an RTS if they feel they had leeway to make a lot of mistakes. They don't (yet) like the time pressure when they build their base. Of course I could tell them that their way of playing the game is boring because after 10 minutes they still are on 1 base (with 13 workers on minerals) and everything is sooo slow. But who am I to tell somebody how to play it right? If they want it this way (for the time being) they should get it.
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Doesn't seem to be big enough(yet) to be either a bubble or a wave.
edit
And I agree that some form of unranked "get game" option might make more casuals play vs other people if that is a concern.
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I hope Star2 is always in flux, like a tesseract.
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I hope e-sports continues to grow. It really does come down to money though. I think the OP covered all the main points very well. The sponsors need to see their contributions as worthwhile. My guess that most of them see their sponsorship as an investment/advertising, so if we don't but their products, they will certainly pull out funding. There is the rare wealthy e-sports fan that doesn't need to make a profit, but that is rare.
I don't think that the answer is in a paid subscription tournament. As much as I love the GSL and the NASL, I really don't like paying to watch games. Casual viewers will never be attracted to this format.
I think the community responsibility is to support the sponsors. Make sure they know that their contributions are meaningful.
Caster responsibility is to make the game accessible to spectators. If a casual viewer can still enjoy the game, then it can spread to anyone who has a potential interest in watching.
Finally, Blizzard needs to back us up 100%. I think they will pull through, but they make their money from selling the game, I don't know how much they get by having e-sports grow. If the Activision side has their say, their priority will be to maximize game purchases not game sustainability (because Activision is a cash whore). They have stated in interviews that they are placing a high priority (at least in terms of advertising) on the single player. I still expect they will deliver, but the public tone is dramatically different from what I want as a more serious player.
I'm not sure what the best solution to everything is, but if the right people end up with money (players, sponsors, organizers, Blizzard), then we will have e-sports, otherwise the bubble theory will win out.
I honestly believe that e-sports is here to stay, and when my son (1 yr old) is old enough to play video games, there will be plenty of professional gaming events for him to participate in if that's what he wants to do.
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It's bubble simply because in ten years, you'll either see SC3 or see SC2 fizzle out like BW was starting to do. As demonstrated in SC1 to SC2, you can expect the third to be a very different game. The change between titles is more similar to the difference between Rugby and Aussie Rules Football than it is the changes that go on every couple years in American football. Liking one sport does not mean you will like the other.
The Starcraft franchise is a cash cow. There will be a third came coming out in the next decade, or the franchise slowly die as fewer and fewer new players pick it up. The entire video game industry is built upon lots of little bubbles. BW is the king as far as relevance over the long term as an ESPORT, and it was slowly dying because new people don't go out and buy 10 year old games.
And there's not going to be a paradigm shift due of SC2 because ESPORTS is much more than just one game. Any kind of long term success SC2 has will only generate more of an interest for SC3, not any kind of broad interest in the multitude of other games that fall under the term ESPORTS. The rise in popularity of football in the United States did not help any of the other sports in the country. Why would SC2 suddenly make people think that Counterstrike is a good thing to watch?
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Did I read that if you are a bad player in WoW, you can relegate yourself to a support role in a more competent team?
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU. I don't want another green dps in my PUGs!
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Awesome awesome read. Thank you!
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what an interesting article, and i hope that starcraft 2 will remain strong and relevant for the decade to come.
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It's pretty funny that people think starcraft's qualities as a game have something to do with whether or not competitive sc2 or esports in general will be a bubble or not. It's all got to do with how people approach the longevity of the sport and profession as a competitive player. At the moment it looks like it's going to be a massive bubble. Everyone approaches it just like any other short-term entertainment phenomenon: cash out as much money out of it as fast as possible.
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Its all the small things that make in into a wave, this article for example, people are so interested in it that it probably want "pop". Yesterday we reach something like 87k people watching the r16 in a tournament in sweden, with players from all the world. That shit is pretty awesome.
I really think that it is a wave, i really hope so, and I think we should all make it a wave
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I love this guys posts. Check out the other thread he made for sure.
I agree on the observation and I think it will be neither of those. It depends on the big tournaments willingness to adapt to what is happening. The ones that do this will survive for a longer time than those who don't.
All in all I think its a wave with bubbles in it.
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esports i think is a wave... however who knows if starcraft2 will stay on top. i have a feeling it will because unlike most other games, starcraft 2 is a very watchable game and also a very skillful one
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On June 21 2011 01:08 aderum wrote:I really think that it is a wave, i really hope so, and I think we should all make it a wave
I agree that we, as viewers, can actually help to make it a wave (although certainly we cannot do it alone). Watch as many tournaments as you can, turn off ad-block, and if you like a tournament then buy the premium pass for it to support it. Try to get your friends to buy starcraft and try to get them interested in the tournament scene. Do as much as you can PERSONALLY to help grown e-sports, don't rely on the big names to grow e-sports (although they should do as much as they can as well)
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Loved the article. Pretty much sums up my thoughts about this matter.
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Personally i think it's a bubble, but i also believe the e-sports scene will eventually grow huge. Currently with sc2 it has grown too big too fast however, i cannot imagine the amount of sponsor support the game is receiving is proportional to it's current popularity.
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It seems since release tournaments seem to grow in prize pool (DH/MLG basically doubling since 2010), and viewer counts seem more impressive at every event. For eSports to be successful then there really needs to be a constant improving trend in this if sc2 wants to keep expanding. Obviously there will be a peak/becoming stable at a point, but if that happens soon then i dont believe it will be big enough to sustain.
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On June 20 2011 21:14 Nevsky wrote:
Sports like football and events like eurovision (lolz) take place only for one reason - people all over the world, from young to old, absolutely love watching them. Take football for instance, it's simple, understandable, dynamic, excitable and exciting to watch even if you've never touched a ball in your life!
Baseball and cricket are both very popular spectator sports worldwide despite being very complex and difficult to follow without experience with the game. American football is very popular in the U.S. and Canada, and while the basic idea is simple, the rules can be pretty esoteric. (I was born here and everyone around me since childhood has been a football fan, but I can never remember wtf a "down" is.)
Starcraft is similar. The basic idea is easy to explain: you build armies and fight it out with them. The subtlety of why and how a player makes the choices they do is a secondary matter that a viewer can get into along the way.
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The one thing about bubbles is that they can be very difficult to spot. Thats what makes them so painfull when they burst.
Fingers crossed we are riding a wave!
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On June 20 2011 18:52 [F_]aths wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 09:44 deadjawa wrote:
This “grind” has victimized most of my friends who initially bought the game with high hopes Same for my friends. The problem is, that with a smaller pool of such casual players, it is more likely to get matched against someone who plays more serious, making winning more difficult and driving away even more casual players. Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 13:41 RacerX wrote:
I feel like your statement of will they make an "improvement" of making the game easier for casual players does not help the game, the game is already easier for casual players than brood war, requiring much less mechanics and to make the game easier would only hurt the competitive scene. I would say, that is not the point. Even if SC2 would be mechanically easier, it still would drive many casual gamers away because they get crushed too often. If you are new to RTS, you should be prepared to lose umpteen games with very few random wins inbetween. Beginners get the impression that all other players are like zombies on crack, only trying to kill the opponent as fast as possible and with the most abusive units possible. It is too fast-paced and too hard to understand even for bronze level. The solution is not to slow down or dumb down Starcraft, but to integreate a playing field for all true casual gamers where they can battle each other. The Blizzard ladder promotes cheeses and all-ins and fast rushes and harass were your workers are attacked and so on. This is too much for many potential players.
Harass, cheese, rushes, and harass are all part of the game and something that you have to learn to deal with. You become a much better player after you've practice under pressure and seen cheeses. If there is a worry about playing not competitively then you can always play custom games of 1v1s, less possibility of an allin or cheese. This is what the ladder ranking is for it helps find people near your level, its also why brood war has iccup. Also, blizzard is always posting things about the pro scene on the home page casual players can look at. This is a game where you have to learn how to play it and to put in time. I've always thought more thorough tutorials that are actually somewhat helpful to teach timings, just spending money, getting gas for a reason, etc for the beginners.
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One thing that I think will happen soon (and as a spectator I'm going to hate it) is the death of free streams. When you factor in all the costs you mentioned, I think tournament organizers are going to want to get more dollar value out of their streams than a few commercials can give them. TSL, MLG, and Dreamhack.. imagine if they all charged $5 for their HQ streams for the entire tournament? How many would pay versus how many would wait for VODs/replays?
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Reading this article, I was struck with a thought.
Perhaps Blizzard wanted 2 expansions over long periods of time to ensure the longevity of SC2 to more than just a couple of years. With an assured 6+ year lifespan, it's definitely easier for it to become a pillar of ESPORTS.
Just sayin', maybe Blizzard's smarter than we think.
By the way, fantastic article. You've gotta have one of the highest quality per post ratio in TL.
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If sc2 ever comes to a premature end then i'll happily look back onto it and be content with all the enjoyment it has brought me over the past year.
Although heres to hoping for another 10+ years!
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Kyrgyz Republic1462 Posts
I think the audience for SC2 in particular is not going to grow much, and surely SC2 will get replaced by something else in 5-10 years so it does not make much sense for the companies to be making any long-term plans regarding SC. Competitive gaming as a whole though is bound to grow as gaming is becoming more socially accepted due to the generation change, so the position taken by companies such as MLG (not to base its business on a single game, but rather organise tournaments for those games that currently attract viewers) are very reasonable.
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Regarding the Bubble player pool, most casuals are still interested in doing things like 2v2, 3v3, and 4v4. They can do exactly what you described, play a support role to the more competent player and still emerge victorious. Personally I love getting drunk at the bars and still being able to compete in 4v4 and win.
So more team game features (10 v 10 maybe?) would keep interest and # of players high.
Ultimately though, I don't think it is a problem. How many people watch football but still play it on a regular basis? Judging by all the fat armchair quarterbacks, I'd wager not a whole lot.
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i don't know the numbers or anything, but...
people also die.
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Really nice post there, thanks for putting in the effort to write it!
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On June 21 2011 05:32 gladsheim wrote:
If sc2 ever comes to a premature end then i'll happily look back onto it and be contempt with all the enjoyment it has brought me over the past year.
Although heres to hoping for another 10+ years!
cell phone post?
I think it's a wave, but maybe a frothy wave? I don't think as many tournaments as exist now will always exist, but I think there is more to come for sc2
And expansions always help that!
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On June 21 2011 00:20 Hawk wrote:
It's bubble simply because in ten years, you'll either see SC3 or see SC2 fizzle out like BW was starting to do. As demonstrated in SC1 to SC2, you can expect the third to be a very different game. The change between titles is more similar to the difference between Rugby and Aussie Rules Football than it is the changes that go on every couple years in American football. Liking one sport does not mean you will like the other.
This is very interesting point, one that I'm not sure I have any answers to. What will the world be like for Starcraft 10? Will there be 10 separate communities supporting 10 different games? I sure hope not.
I think that there is a lot of potential for future starcraft games to be simply graphics & UI upgrades, but with a multiplayer world developed *around* the game. Think about how WoW arena is a subset of WoW as a whole - except the Starcraft E-Sports part of the game would actually be balanced instead of the 30 minute long snorefest that is WoW arena.
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On June 21 2011 09:54 Carson wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2011 05:32 gladsheim wrote:
If sc2 ever comes to a premature end then i'll happily look back onto it and be contempt with all the enjoyment it has brought me over the past year.
Although heres to hoping for another 10+ years! cell phone post? I think it's a wave, but maybe a frothy wave? I don't think as many tournaments as exist now will always exist, but I think there is more to come for sc2 And expansions always help that!
no i'm just an idiot -_-
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On June 21 2011 10:00 deadjawa wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2011 00:20 Hawk wrote:
It's bubble simply because in ten years, you'll either see SC3 or see SC2 fizzle out like BW was starting to do. As demonstrated in SC1 to SC2, you can expect the third to be a very different game. The change between titles is more similar to the difference between Rugby and Aussie Rules Football than it is the changes that go on every couple years in American football. Liking one sport does not mean you will like the other.
This is very interesting point, one that I'm not sure I have any answers to. What will the world be like for Starcraft 10? Will there be 10 separate communities supporting 10 different games? I sure hope not. I think that there is a lot of potential for future starcraft games to be simply graphics & UI upgrades, but with a multiplayer world developed *around* the game. Think about how WoW arena is a subset of WoW as a whole - except the Starcraft E-Sports part of the game would actually be balanced instead of the 30 minute long snorefest that is WoW arena. The standard of releasing new games all the time is probably not great from the "esport" perspective.
Would probably be better for the RTS scene if they simply never quit making expansions but I don't think the gaming industry yet realized that games don't necessarily have to die after x amount of time.
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My personal opinion is that the current Financial aspect of e-Sports is a bubble. The business models in e-Sports are flawed by instant fame. You cannot just jump in head first when there is little to no water to prevent you hitting the bottom.
Although I don't see a crash in the e-sports world mostly because there will always be demand. I do see the financial situation getting a bit tighter for teams and tournaments.
What can cause this? A poor performance by any major event or team, or something extremely controversial... Theft, law suits, or failure.
But e-Sports aren't going anywhere. Because there are soooooo many people interested in them.
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I think it's clear that it's a bunch of bubbles that act in the form of a wave.
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Nicely written and well stated for both sides of what SC2 and Esports might turn into over time.
I can't call it right now, I think alot more will be clear in one year.
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On June 20 2011 09:57 atombombforpeace wrote:
In regards to the player pool, I don't think it matters how many people actually play and/or get better in SC2. I think the biggest test is how willing people are to watch Starcraft 2, even if they don't play it. Lots of major sports have a large viewer base that has never touched the game. In order of SC2 to grow, it needs to have a certain spectator appeal to get people who don't play the game much, or at all, to watch and follow the scene.
bump
it really is true when you look at the people who watch football or basketball - many of them do not play at all. the only problem with comparing these two with esports is that i feel that esports - especially sc2 - is more involved, because of its complexity. one can sit down and watch basketball without knowing much about the game and still enjoy it reasonably well, whereas it seems that anyone who doesn't know what is going on will really not want to watch sc2 being played.
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For Esports to grow, we all must be like day9, be proud of what we do. We must bring the word esports to our friends and family, just like fotball fans do :D
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Truthfully I don't see it as a bubble. StarCraft 2 has only grown worldwide and stabilized. I mean, last year it was rather turbulent but a lot of tournaments were new and untested. I mean, GSL was an unsure thing; it had a rocky start but ultimately was a fairly good success, with only room for expansion.
MLG meanwhile was rather mediocre/bad up until Columbus. And with both MLG and GSL working together more to make the scene more global.
With Heart of the Swarm on the horizon, SC2 is poised for growth. It still has some hurdles ahead of it, but the only way it could be a bubble is if people lost interest in watching, which would mean a string of mediocre/boring tournaments.
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I find it quite troubling that Turtle Entertainment (ESL, IEM), the biggest esports company in Europe, was not even mentioned. Especially because their current "credit rating" (which is rather bad) will have a serious influence on esports development. And, of course, if you mention TSL and NASL, DreamHack should get a mention as well. They're more important for the industry, too.
As for the question brought up here, there are two ways to look at this: Analyzing it in-depth, which requires us to look at lots of other things and predict future coherences – imo, the write-up in the OP lacks many important aspects. Or we just dumb it down to one simple question: Is the valuation of the esports industry higher than it can possibly grow? As for that, I can only say that we've already been through worse, 3-4 years ago. Some particular valuations seem irrational, though.
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Very nice read indeed. I would like to add that I dont think the learning curve, fans, tourneys or potentioal bubble is the greatest threath, but the infrastructure (read bnet) and/or the regional borders.
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On June 20 2011 09:49 Sprouter wrote:
tell your friends, facebook, etc.
People who use Facebook are usualy casuals who would never be interested in a competetive game.
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I think the very first post in this thread hits on a good point.
The only thing limiting the growth is the number of people involved and the social exposure.
If "geeky" was not still looked on with a negative connotation by a large population,
we could broadcast NASL on television, or at least MLG.
Social stigma is the enemy of ESPORTS.
Social networking has the ability to change that.
tweet away. It makes a difference.
I thought it was so cool that HuK was trending in multiple countries after dreamhack.
That got people to click.
That helps ESPORTS.
EDIT:+ Show Spoiler +On June 21 2011 22:16 Nando wrote:People who use Facebook are usualy casuals who would never be interested in a competetive game. whaaat? man people use facebook from all walks of life. MC has twitter etc.
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I have a SC2 account and might never make it out of the Bronze league. However, I thoroughly enjoy watching matches. I easily relate it to the same kind of viewing experience as I do for (American) football-- with SC2, my friends and I talk about it online; with football, it happens in person. It seems like it's only one point away from mixing for me. I hope it is for many, many more as well.
I constantly tell my friends to pick up SC2 and try to watch a game. I tell them it's enjoyable even if you don't excel at RTS games-- because it is. Quite a few shoutcasters peak my interest in the game as I'm sure they do for many, many others.
I came from the semi-professional Quake / CS scene. The enthusiasm was there but not quite on this level. E-Sports are growing and progamers will be on some kids' walls as a poster at some point. I'm not sure it will be with SC2 but a stepping block is a stepping block-- worry less about SC2 and worry far more about E-Sports, in general.
Edit:
I thoroughly enjoyed your post. Thank you for it.
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pft, neither a bubble or a wave. it's just growing that fast
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What I worry about the most are sponsors. How many sponsors saw that esports was growing, saw that Starcraft 2 was supposed to be esports' flagship, and decided to gamble lots of money on it? At what point do they look at what they're getting for their money and say, "You know, esports is growing, but I'm not getting a good enough return on what I'm paying these players?" And then they pull their money out of esports.
I worry that a lot of the growth right now is from these sponsors gambling on SC2 and artificially growing esports in the meantime... and then they don't get enough money back from it and then back out. Bubble = burst.
I don't have any real evidence for this, it's just a worry of mine every time I hear of a new sponsor. "It's great that they're putting money into esports, but how exactly are they getting any back?"
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I just went for 15 days with internet or a PC. when i returned, i cud hardly wait to play sc2 . i was still nervous when i played. it was still the same experience. i totally cudnt watch MLG or Dreamhack till semi-finals. It dint matter. I still screamed whn HuK won. I dont know about the economics that much. I hope there are more sponsors. But one thing is for sure, as a spectator and a player, its definitely not a bubble; its not fake. its a passion and a hobby. its good.
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United Kingdom1381 Posts
We'll see how big the bubble gets when the BW players join SC2!
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I totally support Starcraft pros whoring themselves out to sponsors and team mergers. I love drama and anything that will make the sport seem a little more dramatic so more sponsors will get involved. The only thing I really care about is the games and the matches but of course I love crazy stuff happening at events and some real life involvement. I hope the live tournament setting gets bigger and bigger.
I was an active viewer of the BW scene so even if it never sustains I will still be watching what ever popularity and tournaments are remaining in the upcoming years. As to the popularity of Starcraft 2 in Korea I think it will get huge, the BW progamers are still under contract and find no monetary value in switching over anyway yet. This is why we've seen pros like July, Nada and Boxer already in Star2, because their tournament success in BW is at an end so the best option was the developing scene, I expect guys like Jaedong, Bisu, Flash to switch over in years to come, though we shall see.
The bubble or wave is pretty hard to predict, my hopes and thoughts are probably different and my opinions obviously just as biased as everyone here. I think a lot of Starcraft fans should be supporting e-sports overall, I don't care if someone watches a madden match, COD or Starcraft 2. Any of those are fine, I just want people to find enjoyment in watching progaming. Some Starcrafters will just call Star2 or BW "e-sports" when really it obviously envelops much more.
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On June 21 2011 22:53 zarepath wrote:
What I worry about the most are sponsors. How many sponsors saw that esports was growing, saw that Starcraft 2 was supposed to be esports' flagship, and decided to gamble lots of money on it? At what point do they look at what they're getting for their money and say, "You know, esports is growing, but I'm not getting a good enough return on what I'm paying these players?" And then they pull their money out of esports.
I worry that a lot of the growth right now is from these sponsors gambling on SC2 and artificially growing esports in the meantime... and then they don't get enough money back from it and then back out. Bubble = burst.
I don't have any real evidence for this, it's just a worry of mine every time I hear of a new sponsor. "It's great that they're putting money into esports, but how exactly are they getting any back?"
Mb your underestimating some things here.
1. Marketing and all it's psychological aspects
2. The fact that alot of the companies you see frequently are long-term ESPORTS sponsors (razer, steelseries etc)
3. The power/commitment of the sc community to support their players
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SC2s long-term success will rely on the e-sports scenes ability to retain spectators that no longer actively plays the game.
BWs resilience as an e-sport comes mostly in my opinion from the fact that it's great entertainment due to having prestigious leagues, recognizable names and a lot of history. Put simply you don't have to be looking for new builds to use on the ladder to watch a starleague.
In that sense BW is the only e-sport to come to close to being a real sport in that most spectators follow the tournaments but don't actually play the game themselves.
SC2s actual player base will obviously decline over time the question is if those people will stick around and follow the tournaments or not.
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Too much guesswork and too little knowledge of bubbles for my taste. Nice try though.
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Need more posts like this. Thought-provoking presentation that invites discussion.
I think SC2 is a great hobby and I hope it has the ability to be an ESPORTS mainstay for years and years. The thing that surprised me was when I found out a lot of my friends played SC2. (Graduated, stayed in town, made friends). I was always the gamer and my friends did things like watch ESPN for hours a day. All of a sudden I'm getting invited to a LAN party (LAN, lawl) with seven other guys. Wait a second, I thought I was the only one who enjoyed this. Pretty awesome Also, kicking everyone's butt and having them awe at your Platinum level skills is amusing too when you know the real potential of players ^^
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On June 21 2011 23:52 mordek wrote:Need more posts like this. Thought-provoking presentation that invites discussion. I think SC2 is a great hobby and I hope it has the ability to be an ESPORTS mainstay for years and years. The thing that surprised me was when I found out a lot of my friends played SC2. (Graduated, stayed in town, made friends). I was always the gamer and my friends did things like watch ESPN for hours a day. All of a sudden I'm getting invited to a LAN party (LAN, lawl) with seven other guys. Wait a second, I thought I was the only one who enjoyed this. Pretty awesome Also, kicking everyone's butt and having them awe at your Platinum level skills is amusing too when you know the real potential of players ^^
sounds awesome man  I
I think starcraft can be considered a mainstream hobby in a few years. Got a few friends who play, which I don't meet more than a few times a year, they play from time to time without being real gamers, just like we played football together sometimes and still do, we now also play starcraft sometimes. It's good fun and a way to socialize. Talk some shit while playing some unserious ladder games. My only fear is that blizzard makes sc2 to expensive with all the expansions, so some of the casuals drop off. What makes other esports so popular is that they are either extremely cheap or free. CS, QL & LoL only to name a few.
anyway, good thread with many good answers 
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Really good post.
As someone said in the first page, I think one of the main challenge's for esports' (specially starcraft's) development is not sustainging a player base, but keeping ex-players or people who never bought the game as watchers. Even though in the first years of development the number of active players is really important (players not only tend to watch progames, they also bring other players in), once (and if) the game stabilizes as an actual sport, the ability to pull in non players will be exential.
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In my opinion, a large part of SC2 being a bubble or a wave will eventually lie on the way Blizzard handles the expansions and the way community responds to it. I was not in the e-sports scene (SC:BW) when it started but from my understanding (correct me if I am wrong), the expansion was already done by the time SC1 became an e-sports.
In case of SC2, it is already a dominant game based on the e-sports scene. However, the idea of having separate ladders and WoL/HoTS being completely separate games bothers me. The launch of HoTS will create a period in e-sports where a part of the community (tournaments, sponsors, players) would follow HoTS while others would stick to WoL (similar group) in essence dividing the pool both in terms of players and tournaments. The players will have to pick and choose one of the two since I don't think it is feasible practicing for 2 separate versions of the game as it mixes up strategies a whole lot (a weak analogy can be drawn to multiple versions of the same map not being good for the community as well in the current game).
Thus, I believe the launch of HoTS would be the biggest test for SC2 as a game since it will bring around a period of instability and the future of the game will depend on how that period is handles by Blizzard (as to how to they eventually decide to transition from WoL to HoTS) and how the community handles it (there is a lack of a governing body in SC2 and this might hurt since in a absence of set global/regional standards, the scene will become much more divisive in general).
This transition will test whether the SC2 scene is fragile or not and whether the community is patient enough to handle a likely rough transition. I do not know if GSL/MLG/DH (being the premier tournaments in their regions) and to a lesser extent NASL decide on this eventual transition but I hope that they keep in touch with each other so that games can transition from WoL to HoTS consistently across the entire scene since I believe they would be trend-setters in their respective regions.
Note: I do think that even though I did not directly deal with bubble or wave comparison, this event will eventually show whether SC2 is a fragile bubble or a powerful wave.
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Will there be improvements in Heart of the Swarm that make it easier for casual gamers to stay involved in the game?
Why yes. It will be called "Blizzard Defense of the Ancients." Those who tire of SC2 ladder play will eventually end up here, as did many Warcraft players. DotA can and will keep players sucked in. It's like RTS limbo. You wait in DotA for eons until the sins of the main game have been absolved, and then you return.
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On June 21 2011 10:44 FXOpen wrote:
My personal opinion is that the current Financial aspect of e-Sports is a bubble. The business models in e-Sports are flawed by instant fame. You cannot just jump in head first when there is little to no water to prevent you hitting the bottom.
Although I don't see a crash in the e-sports world mostly because there will always be demand. I do see the financial situation getting a bit tighter for teams and tournaments.
What can cause this? A poor performance by any major event or team, or something extremely controversial... Theft, law suits, or failure.
But e-Sports aren't going anywhere. Because there are soooooo many people interested in them. Well the sc2 scene is new since it's a new game but professional competition in computer games been around for quite some time now.
Another thing that comes to mind is that the amount of money going into the scene does not seem to be exactly extreme right now, you probably know a lot more than I do about this. From my point of view as "self employed" in a small local business it does not seem to be very expensive to for example partially sponsor a player. We have to pay almost $1000 for a tiny ad in the local newspaper for example and many many local stores easily spend over $10000 a week on advertising. And there are not more than like 200000 people in my town.
One problem is obviously that sponsoring sc2 players is mostly a global form of advertising. If it was local even a tiny business like ours could get a decent return of investment by sponsoring a player with say $1000 a week.
Also, in many cases you don't even need a good direct roi, many lower league sport teams get sponsored because some business owners simply like the sport and want to support it.
Anyway back to sc2. All businesses are not local obviously. If I for example owned Fractal Design I would probably at least look in to the sc2 scene, and there are literally thousands of companies like that.
Then we have the streaming thing for example. We might be in baby stages of watching live streams right now. Ignoring players streaming themselves, what if the small sc2 tournaments going on every day will have 10 times more viewers in a couple of years simply because for example jtv got a lot more viewers than today.
Many things can go wrong, jtv can go out of business instead of becoming bigger etc but new things that are "unknown" today can happen as well like for example Google or Microsoft heavily promoting live streaming.
And so on.
To me it seems like the basis for a large growth of esports is there. Tons of people are sport freaks so the potential should be there as long so called esports provide good entertainment. Personally I would guess it will be a slow process with lots of ups and downs though.
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MLG prior to IMG joining up with them were going to run into financial problems as far as I know. But then IMG sponsored them for $10 mill I think. Emphasis on think.
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On June 21 2011 23:30 Popss wrote:
SC2s long-term success will rely on the e-sports scenes ability to retain spectators that no longer actively plays the game.
BWs resilience as an e-sport comes mostly in my opinion from the fact that it's great entertainment due to having prestigious leagues, recognizable names and a lot of history. Put simply you don't have to be looking for new builds to use on the ladder to watch a starleague.
In that sense BW is the only e-sport to come to close to being a real sport in that most spectators follow the tournaments but don't actually play the game themselves.
SC2s actual player base will obviously decline over time the question is if those people will stick around and follow the tournaments or not.
Totally agree with this. If I remember an informal age survey we had here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=214457) it's obvious that most here are in their early 20's and then it peters down to nothing from there. The only way SC or e-sports in general will be profitable in the long term is to get fans and hold on to them for the rest of their lives, something that will be very challenging for these companies.
Also, we have to think about the gender divide. Any business would find it tough if it couldn't attract a segment of the female population, let alone only 2%. Of course, it's possible the proportion of respondents in TL isn't representative of the number of female fans, but I don't think it's that much larger anyways.
And, of course, there's also the cultural factors in the West such as e-sports being seen largely as a waste of time/a youthful pastime/something adults wouldn't do or watch/something girls wouldn't do/etc.
E-sports may not be a bubble long term, but I think SC in general might not be profitable in the same time frame as new games/technologies are developed and come into their own.
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I would just like to point out that events like Dreamhack and MLG were already in place long before SC2 came out. If it reaches the point that, for instance, NASL and GSL go under from lack of funding and interest, DH, TSL, and MLG could theoretically all still go on because these tournaments are more or less offshoots of the bigger events whose name they go under. Granted, if SC2 ever got that unpopular, then it would probably be given the smallest venue and have the least expense, but these tournaments could still exist in some form or another.
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its a constant flow which has points at which it expands greatly.
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The future of e-sports is shaky. The amount of culture it has to overcome is enormous. I cannot speak for other countries, or even for other locations in the US, however where I live video gaming is seen as absolutely nothing but addiction or a waste of time. Thus, the amount of following it can gain is limited at best.
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I think with any "bubble" part of the problem is people are making mistakes for the first time.
That isn't the case with SC2. There have been many e-sports "bubbles" that have led to colossal failures... examples:
1) ESWC - Colossal tournament that turned into a Colossal failure as they couldn't afford to pay out prizes and had to shut down
2) MYM - Overpaid their players like crazy and couldn't sustain the team. They have since re-emerged under new ownership and seem to be doing things right.
3) Championship Gaming Series - That big league that had many teams from all over the place and was televised and eventually collapsed
All of these organizations made big mistakes which all led to failure. But the current scene should have learned from it. We should have learned how to sustain e-sports. And Korea has showed the world that e-sports can expand properly.
So no, I don't think we're in a Bubble. There have been e-sports related Bubbles before but I think people have learned from the mistakes they have made. Atleast I certainly hope they have.
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The first game I started paying attention to eSports-wise was Quake Live. If one of that game's major tournaments ever got over 10k viewers, it was cause for celebration (I'm not even sure it ever got that many viewers, I don't remember). SC2 gets 50k, then 75k, then 80k viewers and it's cause for concern.
Even if SC2 isn't the "main game" for years and years, it obviously changed the eSports scene. That's good, isn't it? Isn't that what you guys care about: eSports? Or is it just SC2?
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This is a great blog ~ thanks for the thoughts!
I feel like the drastic improvements in technology are what made the difference from SC1 -> SC2. It is now so easy to just watch a live stream or some pro-casts that you don't even have to own the game to be a fan! Hopefully continued improvements in the way fans can interact with the game will continue to have profound effects on the eSports community.
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Great read and excellent post OP. The concept of a bubble or a wave is such a toss up to me. I feel that you are right about the casual gamers losing interest after being beaten down in the silver league week after week. I've had a few buddies just rage quit on SC2 altogether and jumped back on steam for FPSs. Hopefully it truly is an eSports wave and with improvements in spectator technologies there will be more options for casual gamers to get into the scene to stay.
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On June 23 2011 02:01 byce wrote:
The first game I started paying attention to eSports-wise was Quake Live. If one of that game's major tournaments ever got over 10k viewers, it was cause for celebration (I'm not even sure it ever got that many viewers, I don't remember). SC2 gets 50k, then 75k, then 80k viewers and it's cause for concern.
Even if SC2 isn't the "main game" for years and years, it obviously changed the eSports scene. That's good, isn't it? Isn't that what you guys care about: eSports? Or is it just SC2?
Havn't other endeavours in the past got way more than 80k viewers? They collapsed and took a lot of interest with them.
I think sc2 is another bubble while e-sports is something that is on a wave. A lot of people are interested in competitive computer games, sc2 just doesn't cut it for long term viability. Like LoL recently plugging their DH stream and getting a huge number of viewers.
Games actually plugging that you can watch them makes a difference for first time and casual watchers, those Blizzard news about events is very lacklustre.
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StarCraft II is the epitome of the ESports community. With 82+k livestream viewers at DreamHack, 80+k viewers at MLG, and the exciting nature StarCraft II has in and of itself in mind, it seems as though ESports, and, by extension, SC2 is currently on a wave. When a game is not only fun to play, but also fun to watch, there is an inherent sustainability in that game.
In regards to the notion that lower-level players aren't having fun, "the grind" sucks, I agree, but it doesn't stop the game from being fun. I think the problem players have is SC2 burnout-- that is, playing so much that they wake up one day and just don't feel like playing anymore. Losing is a part of winning, but SC2 lends losing players to tilt, which makes the game less fun, and makes players more likely to burnout.
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the beautiful thing that sc2 has is that there are going to be 2 more expansions
so even if viewership/interest starts to decline, a new expansion comes out in instantly revives the scene. i think sc2 will be safe until the last expansion comes out, and after that who knows.
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We need integrated tournament viewing inside the game client.
Let me tune into an ongoing, listen to a special type of observer ("caster"), and watch the game using the in game engine (low bandwidth, high quality). Let me control my own camera or turn it over to another designated observer who will navigate for me.
And for the love of aiur, fix those lag spikes!!!!
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Personally I think it's a 'bubble.' If you can call 80k viewers for the biggest events of the game a bubble. 80k are a lot of people, but when you take into account these are worldwide numbers it's still incredibly low compared to sports. Add to that that SC2 is really popular currently, the game is pretty new still. So this may decrease over time even.
One big problem I see with SC2 'esports' is that it's hard to follow it if you have an adult life. If you are unemployed or still in highschool you can watch all these events that last the entire day, once you grow out of it you can't. Look at MLG or Dreamhack, they're 3 day events that span over the entire day. While sports games take 2 hours tops. So that means the audience for it will always be pretty limited, maybe 80k-100k is the top of the mountain and that would mean it's just a very small form of entertainment.
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It's a wave with bubbles.
The wave is the popularity of SC2. I think that's here to stay. What i'm uncertain about is whether it has much growth left in it. It definitely does in Korea if Brood War dies but that's a tough one. The other major factor, two fold really, is that the Starcraft name has so much mana in it, and its really the only RTS in town. It's not like its really competing with BW or WC3 or anything else in the NA scene.
The bubbles are all the new tournaments and sponsorship interest. This is the time where as a player if you're not trying to cash in on all of these opportunities you're a FOOL. I predict (because i feel these are bubbles) that opportunities will not increase from where they are, and will probably decrease. Guys like MC and Moon are the few players who seem to understand the importance of cashing in when they can. That said i admire guys who are actually trying to get better at the game by fighting in Korea.
In this context i'm not concerned for the future of SC2. I think its strong and stable. What does concern me is the people in charge of the game. I look at what Blizzard did to Arenas from TBC through to today and it's amazing how badly they've destroyed something which was pretty good one time. I'm worried they'll repeat this with SC2. I don't think they will, but it wouldn't shock me one bit. They're more than capable of fucking this up.
That said i think they've done so much wrong (well BNET 2.0 mostly) that in a sense the only way they can go is up. All it takes though is one decision not for the good of the game to kill the competitive scene. Subscription fees would probably do it.
A wave with bubbles and i don't trust the man behind the wheel.
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On June 20 2011 10:06 Gamegene wrote:
I think we're asking the wrong question here.
It's very easy to say SC2 E-Sports is a huge bubble just based on the bigger tournaments, but I would argue that it's primarily concentrated in the large number of online tournaments with small cash payouts. The infrastructure is more financially sound since the prizes are smaller and the costs are infinitely cheaper online, guaranteeing that there will be another.
The question should be: Are the bigger Live LAN Tournaments going to burst?
Gamegene, I agree with you 100% I feel online tournaments will be for quite awhile the path the West must take to further expand E-sports outside of Korea. Korea has so much in theeir favor that allow for E-sports to be so successful ie. Their network infrastructure is beyond any other country, Korea being such a small country and the E-sports scene developed around Souel, and the vast amounts of people living in or near makes it much easier for it's success. In the west you will typically have fly somewhere, pay for room and board, and other misc. expenses. Getting in a car and driving two hours to an event is much easier than everything else. I feel MLG and NASL both have half of the equation correct, for now. With MLG's financials, they're in the best position to succeed and being the driving force of E-Sports to succeed as we all have a desire to see. But.. I feel they need to adjust their SC2 business plan. If I recall MLG has 5 big tournaments schedule with 5 very nice prize pools, but each event is approximately 6-7 weeks apart. What else are they doing to get me interested as a spectator if I don't play? The National Football League has the perfect model. Weekly events and a really big bang at the end. The Super Bowl pulls mullions among millions of viewers worldwide. If MLG would restructure to something more similiar, E-Sports could BOOM! Having more tournaments (online) with smaller cash pools will keep myself, an avid SC2 gamer watching the tournaments, but would have the possibility of catch more onlookers. Therefor, bringing more sponsorships to the table and advertising revenue, then which in turns creates larger cash pools and finally, bring more people wanted to play the game, wanting to compete for the money as well as just playing the game.
Just my two sense
(FYI this is all written from my iPhone so all misspellings and grammatical errors should be ignored lol)
FeaRDaMaN
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Very interesting read i like good job
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Great read.
Only time will tell, hopefully wave..
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I had felt that growth in SC2 had leveled off. Starcraft probably just doesn't make as much money for sponsors as other sports.
Then again, most sports took time to grow to the levels they are at today, and there is no reason rts can't grow to become big in the future. It just may not happen in the lifetime of starcraft 2.
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It´s quite amazing how gaming connects people from all over the world, for now it´s somewhat limited to regions due to limitations of internet speed and language barriers in some cases, in the future I guess people all over the world will play games together. In which traditional sport can average competitors play with others from different countries on a daily basis?
My guess is that it will take another 20+ years for ESPORTS to grow really big, the gaming generation needs to get a bit older and end up in positions of power. Most people in positions of power today didn´t grow up with gaming so they won´t promote it.
One big reason why I see ESPORTS growing is that gaming gear is big business. I´m not only talking about the games, headsets, mouses and keyboards, most gamers spend alot more on their computer hardware than the average person. Commercial interests will always help push things faster.
Streaming and gaming seem to be going hand in hand aswell, I think the two will grow together since streaming is a much more flexible broadcasting medium than TV.
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On June 20 2011 11:40 InvalidID wrote:Great post, but MLG is indeed quite financially sound. I can find no revenue information from later then 2009, but in 2009 they had ~50 million in revenue. They secured an additional 10 million in capital from an institutional investor to expand operations in December, so presumably they are doing fine. They have partnerships with major advertising and media agencies, and you have to recognize how valuable of a demographic we are: 18-24, highly educated, lots of disposable income.In 2009 from: http://techcrunch.com/2009/11/11/interview-with-matt-bromberg-ceo-of-major-league-gaming/ they stated they were profitable. Presumably they still are, as they stated that MLG Columbus had a record viewership. Its important to note that a large portion of their business does not come from the events themselves, they are a conglomerate, that includes a division that generates large amounts of revenue by sourcing out their esports expertise to construct the multiplayer competitive environments for other games(they built the online environments for a number of AAA games such as Guitar Hero III, and Call of Duty: World At War).
Actually it was stated by MLG Sundance during an interview on SotG that the Starcraft tournaments actually lost them money in 2010. This was before even bringing the satellite trucks and everything.
No idea what the situation is like in 2011, but I'm hoping it'll be more profitable.
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On June 30 2011 07:36 teamsolid wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 11:40 InvalidID wrote:Great post, but MLG is indeed quite financially sound. I can find no revenue information from later then 2009, but in 2009 they had ~50 million in revenue. They secured an additional 10 million in capital from an institutional investor to expand operations in December, so presumably they are doing fine. They have partnerships with major advertising and media agencies, and you have to recognize how valuable of a demographic we are: 18-24, highly educated, lots of disposable income.In 2009 from: http://techcrunch.com/2009/11/11/interview-with-matt-bromberg-ceo-of-major-league-gaming/ they stated they were profitable. Presumably they still are, as they stated that MLG Columbus had a record viewership. Its important to note that a large portion of their business does not come from the events themselves, they are a conglomerate, that includes a division that generates large amounts of revenue by sourcing out their esports expertise to construct the multiplayer competitive environments for other games(they built the online environments for a number of AAA games such as Guitar Hero III, and Call of Duty: World At War). Actually it was stated by MLG Sundance during an interview on SotG that the Starcraft tournaments actually lost them money in 2010. This was before even bringing the satellite trucks and everything. No idea what the situation is like in 2011, but I'm hoping it'll be more profitable.
It's hard for me to imagine them being able to sustain giant live events like they've been doing, but I hope to be proven wrong.
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This article was really prescient in some ways, especially their credit rating of NASL. IPL has fallen (the author didn't mention it would have been interesting to see what his credit rating would have been), GSL is still doing strong, doesn't seem like there will be any new TSL anytime soon, and MLG dropped support for SC2 but looks like its back but in drastically reduced scope. Looking back it looks like SC2 Esports was a wave that paved the way for pro gaming to become a huge worldwide phenomenon, to be replaced by new waves such as MOBAs. SC2 today is much diminished but still made a huge impact and will be around for a while, although in drastically reduced scope.
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On May 31 2014 02:30 fishjie wrote:
This article was really prescient in some ways, especially their credit rating of NASL. IPL has fallen (the author didn't mention it would have been interesting to see what his credit rating would have been), GSL is still doing strong, doesn't seem like there will be any new TSL anytime soon, and MLG dropped support for SC2 but looks like its back but in drastically reduced scope. Looking back it looks like SC2 Esports was a wave that paved the way for pro gaming to become a huge worldwide phenomenon, to be replaced by new waves such as MOBAs. SC2 today is much diminished but still made a huge impact and will be around for a while, although in drastically reduced scope.
What MLG is doing right now cannot possibly be considered reduced scope in any ways. They've in a lot of ways made a return to the old format that so many people really liked with pool play and a massive open bracket as well.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/0cGX1.jpg)
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