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I think with any "bubble" part of the problem is people are making mistakes for the first time.
That isn't the case with SC2. There have been many e-sports "bubbles" that have led to colossal failures... examples:
1) ESWC - Colossal tournament that turned into a Colossal failure as they couldn't afford to pay out prizes and had to shut down
2) MYM - Overpaid their players like crazy and couldn't sustain the team. They have since re-emerged under new ownership and seem to be doing things right.
3) Championship Gaming Series - That big league that had many teams from all over the place and was televised and eventually collapsed
All of these organizations made big mistakes which all led to failure. But the current scene should have learned from it. We should have learned how to sustain e-sports. And Korea has showed the world that e-sports can expand properly.
So no, I don't think we're in a Bubble. There have been e-sports related Bubbles before but I think people have learned from the mistakes they have made. Atleast I certainly hope they have.
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The first game I started paying attention to eSports-wise was Quake Live. If one of that game's major tournaments ever got over 10k viewers, it was cause for celebration (I'm not even sure it ever got that many viewers, I don't remember). SC2 gets 50k, then 75k, then 80k viewers and it's cause for concern.
Even if SC2 isn't the "main game" for years and years, it obviously changed the eSports scene. That's good, isn't it? Isn't that what you guys care about: eSports? Or is it just SC2?
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This is a great blog ~ thanks for the thoughts!
I feel like the drastic improvements in technology are what made the difference from SC1 -> SC2. It is now so easy to just watch a live stream or some pro-casts that you don't even have to own the game to be a fan! Hopefully continued improvements in the way fans can interact with the game will continue to have profound effects on the eSports community.
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Great read and excellent post OP. The concept of a bubble or a wave is such a toss up to me. I feel that you are right about the casual gamers losing interest after being beaten down in the silver league week after week. I've had a few buddies just rage quit on SC2 altogether and jumped back on steam for FPSs. Hopefully it truly is an eSports wave and with improvements in spectator technologies there will be more options for casual gamers to get into the scene to stay.
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On June 23 2011 02:01 byce wrote:
The first game I started paying attention to eSports-wise was Quake Live. If one of that game's major tournaments ever got over 10k viewers, it was cause for celebration (I'm not even sure it ever got that many viewers, I don't remember). SC2 gets 50k, then 75k, then 80k viewers and it's cause for concern.
Even if SC2 isn't the "main game" for years and years, it obviously changed the eSports scene. That's good, isn't it? Isn't that what you guys care about: eSports? Or is it just SC2?
Havn't other endeavours in the past got way more than 80k viewers? They collapsed and took a lot of interest with them.
I think sc2 is another bubble while e-sports is something that is on a wave. A lot of people are interested in competitive computer games, sc2 just doesn't cut it for long term viability. Like LoL recently plugging their DH stream and getting a huge number of viewers.
Games actually plugging that you can watch them makes a difference for first time and casual watchers, those Blizzard news about events is very lacklustre.
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StarCraft II is the epitome of the ESports community. With 82+k livestream viewers at DreamHack, 80+k viewers at MLG, and the exciting nature StarCraft II has in and of itself in mind, it seems as though ESports, and, by extension, SC2 is currently on a wave. When a game is not only fun to play, but also fun to watch, there is an inherent sustainability in that game.
In regards to the notion that lower-level players aren't having fun, "the grind" sucks, I agree, but it doesn't stop the game from being fun. I think the problem players have is SC2 burnout-- that is, playing so much that they wake up one day and just don't feel like playing anymore. Losing is a part of winning, but SC2 lends losing players to tilt, which makes the game less fun, and makes players more likely to burnout.
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the beautiful thing that sc2 has is that there are going to be 2 more expansions
so even if viewership/interest starts to decline, a new expansion comes out in instantly revives the scene. i think sc2 will be safe until the last expansion comes out, and after that who knows.
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We need integrated tournament viewing inside the game client.
Let me tune into an ongoing, listen to a special type of observer ("caster"), and watch the game using the in game engine (low bandwidth, high quality). Let me control my own camera or turn it over to another designated observer who will navigate for me.
And for the love of aiur, fix those lag spikes!!!!
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Personally I think it's a 'bubble.' If you can call 80k viewers for the biggest events of the game a bubble. 80k are a lot of people, but when you take into account these are worldwide numbers it's still incredibly low compared to sports. Add to that that SC2 is really popular currently, the game is pretty new still. So this may decrease over time even.
One big problem I see with SC2 'esports' is that it's hard to follow it if you have an adult life. If you are unemployed or still in highschool you can watch all these events that last the entire day, once you grow out of it you can't. Look at MLG or Dreamhack, they're 3 day events that span over the entire day. While sports games take 2 hours tops. So that means the audience for it will always be pretty limited, maybe 80k-100k is the top of the mountain and that would mean it's just a very small form of entertainment.
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It's a wave with bubbles.
The wave is the popularity of SC2. I think that's here to stay. What i'm uncertain about is whether it has much growth left in it. It definitely does in Korea if Brood War dies but that's a tough one. The other major factor, two fold really, is that the Starcraft name has so much mana in it, and its really the only RTS in town. It's not like its really competing with BW or WC3 or anything else in the NA scene.
The bubbles are all the new tournaments and sponsorship interest. This is the time where as a player if you're not trying to cash in on all of these opportunities you're a FOOL. I predict (because i feel these are bubbles) that opportunities will not increase from where they are, and will probably decrease. Guys like MC and Moon are the few players who seem to understand the importance of cashing in when they can. That said i admire guys who are actually trying to get better at the game by fighting in Korea.
In this context i'm not concerned for the future of SC2. I think its strong and stable. What does concern me is the people in charge of the game. I look at what Blizzard did to Arenas from TBC through to today and it's amazing how badly they've destroyed something which was pretty good one time. I'm worried they'll repeat this with SC2. I don't think they will, but it wouldn't shock me one bit. They're more than capable of fucking this up.
That said i think they've done so much wrong (well BNET 2.0 mostly) that in a sense the only way they can go is up. All it takes though is one decision not for the good of the game to kill the competitive scene. Subscription fees would probably do it.
A wave with bubbles and i don't trust the man behind the wheel.
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On June 20 2011 10:06 Gamegene wrote:
I think we're asking the wrong question here.
It's very easy to say SC2 E-Sports is a huge bubble just based on the bigger tournaments, but I would argue that it's primarily concentrated in the large number of online tournaments with small cash payouts. The infrastructure is more financially sound since the prizes are smaller and the costs are infinitely cheaper online, guaranteeing that there will be another.
The question should be: Are the bigger Live LAN Tournaments going to burst?
Gamegene, I agree with you 100% I feel online tournaments will be for quite awhile the path the West must take to further expand E-sports outside of Korea. Korea has so much in theeir favor that allow for E-sports to be so successful ie. Their network infrastructure is beyond any other country, Korea being such a small country and the E-sports scene developed around Souel, and the vast amounts of people living in or near makes it much easier for it's success. In the west you will typically have fly somewhere, pay for room and board, and other misc. expenses. Getting in a car and driving two hours to an event is much easier than everything else. I feel MLG and NASL both have half of the equation correct, for now. With MLG's financials, they're in the best position to succeed and being the driving force of E-Sports to succeed as we all have a desire to see. But.. I feel they need to adjust their SC2 business plan. If I recall MLG has 5 big tournaments schedule with 5 very nice prize pools, but each event is approximately 6-7 weeks apart. What else are they doing to get me interested as a spectator if I don't play? The National Football League has the perfect model. Weekly events and a really big bang at the end. The Super Bowl pulls mullions among millions of viewers worldwide. If MLG would restructure to something more similiar, E-Sports could BOOM! Having more tournaments (online) with smaller cash pools will keep myself, an avid SC2 gamer watching the tournaments, but would have the possibility of catch more onlookers. Therefor, bringing more sponsorships to the table and advertising revenue, then which in turns creates larger cash pools and finally, bring more people wanted to play the game, wanting to compete for the money as well as just playing the game.
Just my two sense
(FYI this is all written from my iPhone so all misspellings and grammatical errors should be ignored lol)
FeaRDaMaN
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Very interesting read i like good job
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Great read.
Only time will tell, hopefully wave..
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I had felt that growth in SC2 had leveled off. Starcraft probably just doesn't make as much money for sponsors as other sports.
Then again, most sports took time to grow to the levels they are at today, and there is no reason rts can't grow to become big in the future. It just may not happen in the lifetime of starcraft 2.
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It´s quite amazing how gaming connects people from all over the world, for now it´s somewhat limited to regions due to limitations of internet speed and language barriers in some cases, in the future I guess people all over the world will play games together. In which traditional sport can average competitors play with others from different countries on a daily basis?
My guess is that it will take another 20+ years for ESPORTS to grow really big, the gaming generation needs to get a bit older and end up in positions of power. Most people in positions of power today didn´t grow up with gaming so they won´t promote it.
One big reason why I see ESPORTS growing is that gaming gear is big business. I´m not only talking about the games, headsets, mouses and keyboards, most gamers spend alot more on their computer hardware than the average person. Commercial interests will always help push things faster.
Streaming and gaming seem to be going hand in hand aswell, I think the two will grow together since streaming is a much more flexible broadcasting medium than TV.
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On June 20 2011 11:40 InvalidID wrote:Great post, but MLG is indeed quite financially sound. I can find no revenue information from later then 2009, but in 2009 they had ~50 million in revenue. They secured an additional 10 million in capital from an institutional investor to expand operations in December, so presumably they are doing fine. They have partnerships with major advertising and media agencies, and you have to recognize how valuable of a demographic we are: 18-24, highly educated, lots of disposable income.In 2009 from: http://techcrunch.com/2009/11/11/interview-with-matt-bromberg-ceo-of-major-league-gaming/ they stated they were profitable. Presumably they still are, as they stated that MLG Columbus had a record viewership. Its important to note that a large portion of their business does not come from the events themselves, they are a conglomerate, that includes a division that generates large amounts of revenue by sourcing out their esports expertise to construct the multiplayer competitive environments for other games(they built the online environments for a number of AAA games such as Guitar Hero III, and Call of Duty: World At War).
Actually it was stated by MLG Sundance during an interview on SotG that the Starcraft tournaments actually lost them money in 2010. This was before even bringing the satellite trucks and everything.
No idea what the situation is like in 2011, but I'm hoping it'll be more profitable.
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On June 30 2011 07:36 teamsolid wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2011 11:40 InvalidID wrote:Great post, but MLG is indeed quite financially sound. I can find no revenue information from later then 2009, but in 2009 they had ~50 million in revenue. They secured an additional 10 million in capital from an institutional investor to expand operations in December, so presumably they are doing fine. They have partnerships with major advertising and media agencies, and you have to recognize how valuable of a demographic we are: 18-24, highly educated, lots of disposable income.In 2009 from: http://techcrunch.com/2009/11/11/interview-with-matt-bromberg-ceo-of-major-league-gaming/ they stated they were profitable. Presumably they still are, as they stated that MLG Columbus had a record viewership. Its important to note that a large portion of their business does not come from the events themselves, they are a conglomerate, that includes a division that generates large amounts of revenue by sourcing out their esports expertise to construct the multiplayer competitive environments for other games(they built the online environments for a number of AAA games such as Guitar Hero III, and Call of Duty: World At War). Actually it was stated by MLG Sundance during an interview on SotG that the Starcraft tournaments actually lost them money in 2010. This was before even bringing the satellite trucks and everything. No idea what the situation is like in 2011, but I'm hoping it'll be more profitable.
It's hard for me to imagine them being able to sustain giant live events like they've been doing, but I hope to be proven wrong.
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This article was really prescient in some ways, especially their credit rating of NASL. IPL has fallen (the author didn't mention it would have been interesting to see what his credit rating would have been), GSL is still doing strong, doesn't seem like there will be any new TSL anytime soon, and MLG dropped support for SC2 but looks like its back but in drastically reduced scope. Looking back it looks like SC2 Esports was a wave that paved the way for pro gaming to become a huge worldwide phenomenon, to be replaced by new waves such as MOBAs. SC2 today is much diminished but still made a huge impact and will be around for a while, although in drastically reduced scope.
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On May 31 2014 02:30 fishjie wrote:
This article was really prescient in some ways, especially their credit rating of NASL. IPL has fallen (the author didn't mention it would have been interesting to see what his credit rating would have been), GSL is still doing strong, doesn't seem like there will be any new TSL anytime soon, and MLG dropped support for SC2 but looks like its back but in drastically reduced scope. Looking back it looks like SC2 Esports was a wave that paved the way for pro gaming to become a huge worldwide phenomenon, to be replaced by new waves such as MOBAs. SC2 today is much diminished but still made a huge impact and will be around for a while, although in drastically reduced scope.
What MLG is doing right now cannot possibly be considered reduced scope in any ways. They've in a lot of ways made a return to the old format that so many people really liked with pool play and a massive open bracket as well.
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EPT
