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[SC2 E-Sports] Bubble or Wave? - Page 9

Forum Index > SC2 General
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gladsheim
Profile Joined October 2010
Australia676 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-21 01:00:47
June 20 2011 20:32 GMT
#161
If sc2 ever comes to a premature end then i'll happily look back onto it and be content with all the enjoyment it has brought me over the past year.

Although heres to hoping for another 10+ years!
Random()
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Kyrgyz Republic1462 Posts
June 20 2011 21:07 GMT
#162
I think the audience for SC2 in particular is not going to grow much, and surely SC2 will get replaced by something else in 5-10 years so it does not make much sense for the companies to be making any long-term plans regarding SC. Competitive gaming as a whole though is bound to grow as gaming is becoming more socially accepted due to the generation change, so the position taken by companies such as MLG (not to base its business on a single game, but rather organise tournaments for those games that currently attract viewers) are very reasonable.
QTIP.
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States2113 Posts
June 20 2011 21:50 GMT
#163
thanks good read!
"Trash Micro but Win. Its Marin." - Min Chul
fishjie
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States1519 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-20 22:06:05
June 20 2011 22:05 GMT
#164
Regarding the Bubble player pool, most casuals are still interested in doing things like 2v2, 3v3, and 4v4. They can do exactly what you described, play a support role to the more competent player and still emerge victorious. Personally I love getting drunk at the bars and still being able to compete in 4v4 and win.

So more team game features (10 v 10 maybe?) would keep interest and # of players high.

Ultimately though, I don't think it is a problem. How many people watch football but still play it on a regular basis? Judging by all the fat armchair quarterbacks, I'd wager not a whole lot.
Gann1
Profile Joined July 2009
United States1575 Posts
June 20 2011 23:08 GMT
#165
On June 21 2011 05:27 ProbeEtPylon wrote:
This site: http://www.weltbevoelkerung.de/info-service/weltbevoelkerungsuhr.php?navanchor=1010037
points out that 83.276.563 people are born each year.
If eSports is not able to gain 83.276.563 new fans per year, it will even shrink.


i don't know the numbers or anything, but...

people also die.
I drop suckas like Plinko
Styze
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Canada12 Posts
June 20 2011 23:29 GMT
#166
Really nice post there, thanks for putting in the effort to write it!
Carson
Profile Joined September 2010
Canada820 Posts
June 21 2011 00:54 GMT
#167
On June 21 2011 05:32 gladsheim wrote:
If sc2 ever comes to a premature end then i'll happily look back onto it and be contempt with all the enjoyment it has brought me over the past year.

Although heres to hoping for another 10+ years!



cell phone post?

I think it's a wave, but maybe a frothy wave? I don't think as many tournaments as exist now will always exist, but I think there is more to come for sc2

And expansions always help that!
"You have to remember something: Everybody pities the weak; jealousy you have to earn." Arnold Schwarzenegger
deadjawa
Profile Joined May 2011
United States179 Posts
June 21 2011 01:00 GMT
#168
On June 21 2011 00:20 Hawk wrote:
It's bubble simply because in ten years, you'll either see SC3 or see SC2 fizzle out like BW was starting to do. As demonstrated in SC1 to SC2, you can expect the third to be a very different game. The change between titles is more similar to the difference between Rugby and Aussie Rules Football than it is the changes that go on every couple years in American football. Liking one sport does not mean you will like the other.

This is very interesting point, one that I'm not sure I have any answers to. What will the world be like for Starcraft 10? Will there be 10 separate communities supporting 10 different games? I sure hope not.

I think that there is a lot of potential for future starcraft games to be simply graphics & UI upgrades, but with a multiplayer world developed *around* the game. Think about how WoW arena is a subset of WoW as a whole - except the Starcraft E-Sports part of the game would actually be balanced instead of the 30 minute long snorefest that is WoW arena.
gladsheim
Profile Joined October 2010
Australia676 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-21 01:01:50
June 21 2011 01:01 GMT
#169
On June 21 2011 09:54 Carson wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 21 2011 05:32 gladsheim wrote:
If sc2 ever comes to a premature end then i'll happily look back onto it and be contempt with all the enjoyment it has brought me over the past year.

Although heres to hoping for another 10+ years!



cell phone post?

I think it's a wave, but maybe a frothy wave? I don't think as many tournaments as exist now will always exist, but I think there is more to come for sc2

And expansions always help that!


no i'm just an idiot -_-
Akta
Profile Joined February 2011
447 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-21 01:24:24
June 21 2011 01:22 GMT
#170
On June 21 2011 10:00 deadjawa wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 21 2011 00:20 Hawk wrote:
It's bubble simply because in ten years, you'll either see SC3 or see SC2 fizzle out like BW was starting to do. As demonstrated in SC1 to SC2, you can expect the third to be a very different game. The change between titles is more similar to the difference between Rugby and Aussie Rules Football than it is the changes that go on every couple years in American football. Liking one sport does not mean you will like the other.

This is very interesting point, one that I'm not sure I have any answers to. What will the world be like for Starcraft 10? Will there be 10 separate communities supporting 10 different games? I sure hope not.

I think that there is a lot of potential for future starcraft games to be simply graphics & UI upgrades, but with a multiplayer world developed *around* the game. Think about how WoW arena is a subset of WoW as a whole - except the Starcraft E-Sports part of the game would actually be balanced instead of the 30 minute long snorefest that is WoW arena.
The standard of releasing new games all the time is probably not great from the "esport" perspective.

Would probably be better for the RTS scene if they simply never quit making expansions but I don't think the gaming industry yet realized that games don't necessarily have to die after x amount of time.
FXOpen
Profile Joined November 2010
Australia1844 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-21 01:45:01
June 21 2011 01:44 GMT
#171
My personal opinion is that the current Financial aspect of e-Sports is a bubble. The business models in e-Sports are flawed by instant fame. You cannot just jump in head first when there is little to no water to prevent you hitting the bottom.

Although I don't see a crash in the e-sports world mostly because there will always be demand. I do see the financial situation getting a bit tighter for teams and tournaments.

What can cause this? A poor performance by any major event or team, or something extremely controversial... Theft, law suits, or failure.

But e-Sports aren't going anywhere. Because there are soooooo many people interested in them.
www.twitter.com/FXOpenESports
Najda
Profile Joined June 2010
United States3765 Posts
June 21 2011 04:30 GMT
#172
I think it's clear that it's a bunch of bubbles that act in the form of a wave.
Synwave
Profile Joined July 2009
United States2803 Posts
June 21 2011 04:36 GMT
#173
Nicely written and well stated for both sides of what SC2 and Esports might turn into over time.
I can't call it right now, I think alot more will be clear in one year.
♞Nerdrage is the cause of global warming♞
lewstherin
Profile Joined December 2010
United States5 Posts
June 21 2011 10:09 GMT
#174
On June 20 2011 09:57 atombombforpeace wrote:
In regards to the player pool, I don't think it matters how many people actually play and/or get better in SC2. I think the biggest test is how willing people are to watch Starcraft 2, even if they don't play it. Lots of major sports have a large viewer base that has never touched the game. In order of SC2 to grow, it needs to have a certain spectator appeal to get people who don't play the game much, or at all, to watch and follow the scene.



bump

it really is true when you look at the people who watch football or basketball - many of them do not play at all. the only problem with comparing these two with esports is that i feel that esports - especially sc2 - is more involved, because of its complexity. one can sit down and watch basketball without knowing much about the game and still enjoy it reasonably well, whereas it seems that anyone who doesn't know what is going on will really not want to watch sc2 being played.
Only a Sith deals in absolutes.
Fus
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden1112 Posts
June 21 2011 10:45 GMT
#175
For Esports to grow, we all must be like day9, be proud of what we do. We must bring the word esports to our friends and family, just like fotball fans do :D
NaNiwa | Innovation | Flash | DeMuslim ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Ocedic
Profile Joined April 2010
United States1808 Posts
June 21 2011 11:03 GMT
#176
Truthfully I don't see it as a bubble. StarCraft 2 has only grown worldwide and stabilized. I mean, last year it was rather turbulent but a lot of tournaments were new and untested. I mean, GSL was an unsure thing; it had a rocky start but ultimately was a fairly good success, with only room for expansion.

MLG meanwhile was rather mediocre/bad up until Columbus. And with both MLG and GSL working together more to make the scene more global.

With Heart of the Swarm on the horizon, SC2 is poised for growth. It still has some hurdles ahead of it, but the only way it could be a bubble is if people lost interest in watching, which would mean a string of mediocre/boring tournaments.
D.Devil
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany227 Posts
June 21 2011 11:08 GMT
#177
I find it quite troubling that Turtle Entertainment (ESL, IEM), the biggest esports company in Europe, was not even mentioned. Especially because their current "credit rating" (which is rather bad) will have a serious influence on esports development. And, of course, if you mention TSL and NASL, DreamHack should get a mention as well. They're more important for the industry, too.

As for the question brought up here, there are two ways to look at this: Analyzing it in-depth, which requires us to look at lots of other things and predict future coherences – imo, the write-up in the OP lacks many important aspects. Or we just dumb it down to one simple question: Is the valuation of the esports industry higher than it can possibly grow? As for that, I can only say that we've already been through worse, 3-4 years ago. Some particular valuations seem irrational, though.
@larisyrota on Twitter
awha
Profile Joined August 2010
Denmark1358 Posts
June 21 2011 12:38 GMT
#178
Very nice read indeed. I would like to add that I dont think the learning curve, fans, tourneys or potentioal bubble is the greatest threath, but the infrastructure (read bnet) and/or the regional borders.
Nando
Profile Joined June 2011
Germany32 Posts
June 21 2011 13:16 GMT
#179
On June 20 2011 09:49 Sprouter wrote:
tell your friends, facebook, etc.


People who use Facebook are usualy casuals who would never be interested in a competetive game.
ComaDose
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Canada10357 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-21 13:21:46
June 21 2011 13:19 GMT
#180
I think the very first post in this thread hits on a good point.
The only thing limiting the growth is the number of people involved and the social exposure.
If "geeky" was not still looked on with a negative connotation by a large population,
we could broadcast NASL on television, or at least MLG.
Social stigma is the enemy of ESPORTS.
Social networking has the ability to change that.
tweet away. It makes a difference.
I thought it was so cool that HuK was trending in multiple countries after dreamhack.
That got people to click.
That helps ESPORTS.
EDIT:+ Show Spoiler +
On June 21 2011 22:16 Nando wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2011 09:49 Sprouter wrote:
tell your friends, facebook, etc.


People who use Facebook are usualy casuals who would never be interested in a competetive game.
whaaat? man people use facebook from all walks of life. MC has twitter etc.
BW pros training sc2 is like kiss making a dub step album.
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