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[SC2 E-Sports] Bubble or Wave? - Page 3

Forum Index > SC2 General
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supdubdup
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States916 Posts
June 20 2011 02:01 GMT
#41
I think starcraft 2is on a wave, but all the tournaments popping up (and other financial stuff) is on a bubble.
Turn it Up
SaYyId
Profile Joined August 2010
Portugal277 Posts
June 20 2011 02:03 GMT
#42
I say stop giving a fuck and see what happens. Trying to predict things isn't going to get you far. Very good post anyway. Coeherent.
No Strings. No attachments.
erin[go]bragh
Profile Joined December 2008
United States815 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-20 02:05:53
June 20 2011 02:05 GMT
#43
On June 20 2011 10:53 lbmaian wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2011 10:47 erin[go]bragh wrote:
I personally hope it's a bubble, and when it pops, everyone will shift back to BW. If foreigner BW got the attention and money thrown at it that SC2 has, it could have been so much better. IMO SC2's purpose in the grand scheme is to introduce Westerners to the idea of e-sports, and then they can shed their baby teeth and bite into the real e-sport, BW.

Sorry for the hate, SC2 fans. But I just don't see SC2 ever having the longevity that BW has.

IMO a big problem is the over saturation. SC2 tourneys are taking place 24-7. The GSL never fucking stops. How did that work out for guitar hero and Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Yeah...

BW 4 life. SC2 will serve it's purpose and show the rest of the world the value of e-sports. And when it dies years from now, and big American/European companies start sponsoring their Brood War pro teams, I'll think back and say "yeah, I love SC2... for what it did for Brood War!"

Hey, a guy can dream...



Not gonna happen. If SC2 fails, what makes you believe that most SC2 talent will move (back) to BW?

In terms of saturation, plenty of B-class and handful of A-class BW players have moved to SC2 primarily because BW is too saturated to support them.


Over saturation referring to the viewers. If you shove SC2 down peoples throats all fucking day, they are going to get bored of it. TSL is hype because it happens so rarely. But when the supposed biggest tournament in the scene takes place every damn month, wheres the hype? Its all boring crap to me, but then again, I am quite the BW zealot.

And yes, I believe the talent would go back to BW, if SC2 had generated enough new interest in RTS e-sports to create a market for it. Don't kid yourself, there are basically 2 reasons BW players switched to SC2.
1: It's easier.
2: There's more money in it. You can't make a living playing BW in the West.

Keep in mind that all this is in context to foreign StarCraft.
JulyZerg! by.hero, effOrt, KTY.
Redmark
Profile Joined March 2010
Canada2129 Posts
June 20 2011 02:09 GMT
#44
On June 20 2011 11:05 erin[go]bragh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2011 10:53 lbmaian wrote:
On June 20 2011 10:47 erin[go]bragh wrote:
I personally hope it's a bubble, and when it pops, everyone will shift back to BW. If foreigner BW got the attention and money thrown at it that SC2 has, it could have been so much better. IMO SC2's purpose in the grand scheme is to introduce Westerners to the idea of e-sports, and then they can shed their baby teeth and bite into the real e-sport, BW.

Sorry for the hate, SC2 fans. But I just don't see SC2 ever having the longevity that BW has.

IMO a big problem is the over saturation. SC2 tourneys are taking place 24-7. The GSL never fucking stops. How did that work out for guitar hero and Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Yeah...

BW 4 life. SC2 will serve it's purpose and show the rest of the world the value of e-sports. And when it dies years from now, and big American/European companies start sponsoring their Brood War pro teams, I'll think back and say "yeah, I love SC2... for what it did for Brood War!"

Hey, a guy can dream...



Not gonna happen. If SC2 fails, what makes you believe that most SC2 talent will move (back) to BW?

In terms of saturation, plenty of B-class and handful of A-class BW players have moved to SC2 primarily because BW is too saturated to support them.


Over saturation referring to the viewers. If you shove SC2 down peoples throats all fucking day, they are going to get bored of it. TSL is hype because it happens so rarely. But when the supposed biggest tournament in the scene takes place every damn month, wheres the hype? Its all boring crap to me, but then again, I am quite the BW zealot.

And yes, I believe the talent would go back to BW, if SC2 had generated enough new interest in RTS e-sports to create a market for it. Don't kid yourself, there are basically 2 reasons BW players switched to SC2.
1: It's easier.
2: There's more money in it. You can't make a living playing BW in the West.

Keep in mind that all this is in context to foreign StarCraft.

And what makes you think the viewers will go to BW? If SC2 fails, then there was a reason for its failure. I highly doubt that that reason will have anything to do with MBS or control groups or anything along those lines. More than anything it may just be people going back to playing CoD or whatever.
Benga
Profile Joined October 2010
Korea (South)471 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-20 02:17:37
June 20 2011 02:09 GMT
#45
I cant see esport growing in the west as that big, despite fans are vastly expanding.
The problem is that foreigner pro players are really struggling to win a bo3 against koreans.
koreans currently never lost against foreigners in dreamhack or MLG theyre taking all the prices.But foreinger pro gamers are totally inflated however cant expect a foreigner winning internatinal events even if they do they're income isnt consistent.Only korea seems the place where you could live out of tourney prizes.All foreign players gain income just coaching and streaming never trying to lessen the gap,which is far from the term pro gamer compared to korea.Im trying to say is that the skill gap might hurt the pros and the spectators whic is really bad for growth of esports

hi
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
June 20 2011 02:10 GMT
#46
On June 20 2011 11:05 erin[go]bragh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2011 10:53 lbmaian wrote:
On June 20 2011 10:47 erin[go]bragh wrote:
I personally hope it's a bubble, and when it pops, everyone will shift back to BW. If foreigner BW got the attention and money thrown at it that SC2 has, it could have been so much better. IMO SC2's purpose in the grand scheme is to introduce Westerners to the idea of e-sports, and then they can shed their baby teeth and bite into the real e-sport, BW.

Sorry for the hate, SC2 fans. But I just don't see SC2 ever having the longevity that BW has.

IMO a big problem is the over saturation. SC2 tourneys are taking place 24-7. The GSL never fucking stops. How did that work out for guitar hero and Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Yeah...

BW 4 life. SC2 will serve it's purpose and show the rest of the world the value of e-sports. And when it dies years from now, and big American/European companies start sponsoring their Brood War pro teams, I'll think back and say "yeah, I love SC2... for what it did for Brood War!"

Hey, a guy can dream...



Not gonna happen. If SC2 fails, what makes you believe that most SC2 talent will move (back) to BW?

In terms of saturation, plenty of B-class and handful of A-class BW players have moved to SC2 primarily because BW is too saturated to support them.


Over saturation referring to the viewers. If you shove SC2 down peoples throats all fucking day, they are going to get bored of it. TSL is hype because it happens so rarely. But when the supposed biggest tournament in the scene takes place every damn month, wheres the hype? Its all boring crap to me, but then again, I am quite the BW zealot.

And yes, I believe the talent would go back to BW, if SC2 had generated enough new interest in RTS e-sports to create a market for it. Don't kid yourself, there are basically 2 reasons BW players switched to SC2.
1: It's easier.
2: There's more money in it. You can't make a living playing BW in the West.

Keep in mind that all this is in context to foreign StarCraft.


The problem with your theory is that you expect (foreign) BW to last till SC2 dies.

You also assume that given time SC2 will never compete with BW. Possible but I see no reason to believe that.

Not sure what makes you think this will come true.

Besides, this is kind of
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Zedders
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada450 Posts
June 20 2011 02:13 GMT
#47
it's like light. it's both bubbular and waveular!!!!!

....and it's also particles....
Ribbon
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5278 Posts
June 20 2011 02:17 GMT
#48
The steep learning curve of Starcraft is not the main problem, however. The real problem is the cannibalistic nature of getting better. In other games, like WoW, if you are bad at the game you can relegate yourself to a support role and play with those who are more competent. In SC2 this is just not possible – you have to lose a ton of games before you start winning. There is just no other way to learn. This “grind” has victimized most of my friends who initially bought the game with high hopes. I am sure that this experience has been shared by many – the in game indicator has shown the number of ladder games taking place slowly decaying over time as players get frustrated with losing. The tiered league system has helped this immensely – but the game is still not where it needs to be to sustain its growth.


This was true in Brood War, though. In fact, I'd say it was even more true in BW than it was in SC2, because BW can be pretty frustrating to someone playing it for the first time.

But BW, after a while, was all about the custom games for low-level players. BGH 2v2v2v2 and primitive proto-DOTA "RPG" games. There was some weird custom World War 2 based team game that I remember as being popular, too. There's a lot that can be done in the custom map department to address the "it's to haaaarrrddd" issue, and more gently lead the nooblets into "real" play.
Sovetsky Soyuz
Profile Joined May 2011
Russian Federation905 Posts
June 20 2011 02:18 GMT
#49
I saw the title and I thought "No! Are thing like this going to be a weekly affair in TL"
Then I clicked (hesitantly) and read and think! "WOW! This is something!
Thanks OP!

On June 20 2011 09:49 Sprouter wrote:
the only way to keep the river of esports flowing is to get more people interested in it. tell your friends, tweet, facebook, etc.


Not really. That's only part of it! First you must have a good game to draw people in.
erin[go]bragh
Profile Joined December 2008
United States815 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-20 02:23:53
June 20 2011 02:19 GMT
#50
On June 20 2011 11:09 Redmark wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2011 11:05 erin[go]bragh wrote:
On June 20 2011 10:53 lbmaian wrote:
On June 20 2011 10:47 erin[go]bragh wrote:
I personally hope it's a bubble, and when it pops, everyone will shift back to BW. If foreigner BW got the attention and money thrown at it that SC2 has, it could have been so much better. IMO SC2's purpose in the grand scheme is to introduce Westerners to the idea of e-sports, and then they can shed their baby teeth and bite into the real e-sport, BW.

Sorry for the hate, SC2 fans. But I just don't see SC2 ever having the longevity that BW has.

IMO a big problem is the over saturation. SC2 tourneys are taking place 24-7. The GSL never fucking stops. How did that work out for guitar hero and Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Yeah...

BW 4 life. SC2 will serve it's purpose and show the rest of the world the value of e-sports. And when it dies years from now, and big American/European companies start sponsoring their Brood War pro teams, I'll think back and say "yeah, I love SC2... for what it did for Brood War!"

Hey, a guy can dream...



Not gonna happen. If SC2 fails, what makes you believe that most SC2 talent will move (back) to BW?

In terms of saturation, plenty of B-class and handful of A-class BW players have moved to SC2 primarily because BW is too saturated to support them.


Over saturation referring to the viewers. If you shove SC2 down peoples throats all fucking day, they are going to get bored of it. TSL is hype because it happens so rarely. But when the supposed biggest tournament in the scene takes place every damn month, wheres the hype? Its all boring crap to me, but then again, I am quite the BW zealot.

And yes, I believe the talent would go back to BW, if SC2 had generated enough new interest in RTS e-sports to create a market for it. Don't kid yourself, there are basically 2 reasons BW players switched to SC2.
1: It's easier.
2: There's more money in it. You can't make a living playing BW in the West.

Keep in mind that all this is in context to foreign StarCraft.

And what makes you think the viewers will go to BW? If SC2 fails, then there was a reason for its failure. I highly doubt that that reason will have anything to do with MBS or control groups or anything along those lines. More than anything it may just be people going back to playing CoD or whatever.


You want my honest answer? Okay, one moment.

/flame retardant suit.

Because Brood War is a better game. SC2 is fucking boring. MBS, auto-mine, smart cast, these are all things that IMO water down the competitive nature of StarCraft. But in the end, SC2 could be 2x more demanding mechanically than BW, but it wouldn't matter because it's fucking boring to watch.

SC2 will fail because after seeing blob vs. blob battles for a year, you'll get sick of it. The dynamic and chaotic combat of BW, however, has already withstood the test of time and remained exciting to it's viewers for a decade.

SC2 is the flavor of the week, month, year, or whatever. Just like the new installment of CoD, people are crazy about it because they remember playing SC1 on their N64 and thinking it was a cool game. They never heard of Korea or Boxer or pro-Brood War before SC2, and this whole idea of e-sports is new and exciting. Eventually they are going to get tired of it, and move on to whatever shiny new game is out and demanding their time. However, some of these viewers might stumble into a BW live report thread one night, watch a couple games, and say to themselves "wow..."

And thus, SC2 will dwindle, and BW will thrive! Again... All wishful thinking.

+ Show Spoiler +
Honestly though, I apologize. I never like to be that "hate filled zealot" who preaches that his way of life is somehow better than yours, but it's hard not to be passionate about BW.



Edit: This is quite a bit off topic! I don't want to detract any further from such a well written OP. I'll take my leave, if anyone feels like writing a rebuttal, please keep it to PMs.
JulyZerg! by.hero, effOrt, KTY.
godemperor
Profile Joined October 2010
Belgium2043 Posts
June 20 2011 02:22 GMT
#51
On June 20 2011 11:19 erin[go]bragh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2011 11:09 Redmark wrote:
On June 20 2011 11:05 erin[go]bragh wrote:
On June 20 2011 10:53 lbmaian wrote:
On June 20 2011 10:47 erin[go]bragh wrote:
I personally hope it's a bubble, and when it pops, everyone will shift back to BW. If foreigner BW got the attention and money thrown at it that SC2 has, it could have been so much better. IMO SC2's purpose in the grand scheme is to introduce Westerners to the idea of e-sports, and then they can shed their baby teeth and bite into the real e-sport, BW.

Sorry for the hate, SC2 fans. But I just don't see SC2 ever having the longevity that BW has.

IMO a big problem is the over saturation. SC2 tourneys are taking place 24-7. The GSL never fucking stops. How did that work out for guitar hero and Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Yeah...

BW 4 life. SC2 will serve it's purpose and show the rest of the world the value of e-sports. And when it dies years from now, and big American/European companies start sponsoring their Brood War pro teams, I'll think back and say "yeah, I love SC2... for what it did for Brood War!"

Hey, a guy can dream...



Not gonna happen. If SC2 fails, what makes you believe that most SC2 talent will move (back) to BW?

In terms of saturation, plenty of B-class and handful of A-class BW players have moved to SC2 primarily because BW is too saturated to support them.


Over saturation referring to the viewers. If you shove SC2 down peoples throats all fucking day, they are going to get bored of it. TSL is hype because it happens so rarely. But when the supposed biggest tournament in the scene takes place every damn month, wheres the hype? Its all boring crap to me, but then again, I am quite the BW zealot.

And yes, I believe the talent would go back to BW, if SC2 had generated enough new interest in RTS e-sports to create a market for it. Don't kid yourself, there are basically 2 reasons BW players switched to SC2.
1: It's easier.
2: There's more money in it. You can't make a living playing BW in the West.

Keep in mind that all this is in context to foreign StarCraft.

And what makes you think the viewers will go to BW? If SC2 fails, then there was a reason for its failure. I highly doubt that that reason will have anything to do with MBS or control groups or anything along those lines. More than anything it may just be people going back to playing CoD or whatever.


You want my honest answer? Okay, one moment.

/flame retardant suit.

Because Brood War is a better game. SC2 is fucking boring. MBS, auto-mine, smart cast, these are all things that IMO water down the competitive nature of StarCraft. But in the end, SC2 could be 2x more demanding mechanically than BW, but it wouldn't matter because it's fucking boring to watch.

SC2 will fail because after seeing blob vs. blob battles for a year, you'll get sick of it. The dynamic and chaotic combat of BW, however, has already withstood the test of time and remained exciting to it's viewers for a decade.

SC2 is the flavor of the week, month, year, or whatever. Just like the new installment of CoD, people are crazy about it because they remember playing SC1 on their N64 and thinking it was a cool game. They never heard of Korea or Boxer or pro-Brood War before SC2, and this whole idea of e-sports is new and exciting. Eventually they are going to get tired of it, and move on to whatever shiny new game is out and demanding their time. However, some of these viewers might stumble into a BW live report thread one night, watch a couple games, and say to themselves "wow..."

And thus, SC2 will dwindle, and BW will thrive! Again... All wishful thinking.

+ Show Spoiler +
Honestly though, I apologize. I never like to be that "hate filled zealot" who preaches that his way of life is somehow better than yours, but it's hard not to be passionate about BW.


I understand, I only recently started watching BW (shame on me), its soo good!
Ruscour
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
5233 Posts
June 20 2011 02:22 GMT
#52
What on earth is 'brood wars'?
erin[go]bragh
Profile Joined December 2008
United States815 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-20 02:24:16
June 20 2011 02:22 GMT
#53

Edit: Fuck, meant to hit edit, must have hit quote. Apologies.
JulyZerg! by.hero, effOrt, KTY.
DeepBlu2
Profile Blog Joined April 2004
United States975 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-20 02:33:35
June 20 2011 02:25 GMT
#54
I really hate to sound like a total ass, but if there is one thing I don't want Blizzard to do, it's make the game easier. I'm in FULL support of them adding different maps for lower leagues, and if they want to, easier mechanics. But, them making the higher leagues, especially pro level suffer because they are trying to appeal to casual players, I will be pretty angry. There is NOTHING stopping them from adding different maps/mechanics at lower leagues.

It would save so much trouble, both for the players and Blizzard. People should be less worried about whether "Starcraft 2 being as big as Sports" and be more worried about who is going to win the next GSL. You talking about "E-Sports" growing in the west is as beneficial as me talking about who is going to win the next Stanley Cup, as most of you would not care.

E-Sports will grow by itself and it only needs a large player base (which it already has). Making the Game easier make more money, but would not necessarily increase the growth of E-Sports, in fact, it would most likely piss people off. E-Sports will be big. There is no point in predicting how big seeing as there are tournament with 100,000+ being poured into it. Don't worry about Korea. Brood War will be alive there for more than a decade(s). This is something you can not change, and SHOULD NOT change. Starcraft 2 is significantly less difficult then Brood War and was very, very successful. Things like Auto-mine and SmartCast made Starcraft 2 much, much less appealing to me yet got them many more purchases and helped with the playerbase. This still, in turn hurts the entertainment value and skill ceiling. So keep in mind that "Playerbase does not relate necessarily to the Growth of E-Sports/Entertainment Value"

Think of it this way.

All Companies want a larger market for their game. They Start off Small and Grow.


Call of Duty 2: Appeals to a smaller crowd than Black Ops. = To make More money they combine Call of Duty 2 with other games that would create a larger market and playerbase.

Brood War: a very difficult game that was turned off by many casual players who thought it was too difficult. (Appealed to Small crowd.) To fix this: Make the game easier. = More people

Battlefield 2: A game that contained some realism but was only for the PC and did not appeal to players who sought for a Run and Gun Game.. Battlefield = Appeals to Cod Fanbase by making it less realistic.
u gotta sk8
godemperor
Profile Joined October 2010
Belgium2043 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-20 02:27:16
June 20 2011 02:26 GMT
#55
On June 20 2011 11:22 Ruscour wrote:
What on earth is 'brood wars'?

its this game that korean noobs who are not good enough for Sc2 play, all the foreigners are too awesome for it. Some really good BW players like (P)MC and (Z)NesTea were soo good that they got promoted to SC2.

Also its obviously a wave, its flawless and full of 100% awesomeness.
Adaptation
Profile Joined August 2004
Canada427 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-20 02:26:38
June 20 2011 02:26 GMT
#56
It's certainly a bubble that will decline over the course of this summer, which will rise once more with HOTS then decline over time, then rise again the last expansion - THEN we will see what really happens.
So i did a 9 pool on an island map, so what?
FragRaptor
Profile Joined October 2010
United States184 Posts
June 20 2011 02:26 GMT
#57
Something that needs to happen to stabilize the right side of the learning curve is that people need to get schools interested in e-sports. With district level competition I'm sure there will be some stars, but more importantly there will be lower level players that are willing to play with others that arn't as good.

I challenge some high school level people that live in the same district a future MLG this: After the MLG get some numbers and approach the school board of your district with a good presentation to open a league like that.

A key to the success of e-sports is sustainability, and if the youngest are playing this now, we just need to make sure that it is interesting to continue playing later.

One problem of the gaming community is that the audiences are very quick to jump from game to game to keep playing. It is the job of e-sports fanatics to continue to make amazing stories that make gamers come back because they "have to see how it ends!"
Do your thing. No matter what.
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
June 20 2011 02:28 GMT
#58
On June 20 2011 11:22 Ruscour wrote:
What on earth is 'brood wars'?


oooh, not sure what to say here?

I guess the best thing to do is tell you that it is the most successful competitive game ever, and happens to be what SC2 was based on.

Basically BW was SC1 and its expansion.

Now, if you asking why everyone is passionate about BW, take a look here.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=100673
+ Show Spoiler +
I know he has moved to SC2, but he will always be a sexy BW vet to me
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Lysenko
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Iceland2128 Posts
June 20 2011 02:29 GMT
#59
One thing to think about: sustainability is not just about viewer numbers. The value of a stream to sponsors also depends heavily on the viewer demographic. If, for example, the average SC2 viewer buys a high-end PC every two years, that's going to greatly increase the financial value of sponsoring a tournament. I don't know that we've seen any market research to indicate how that works out. Get on it, TL!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism
leo23
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States3075 Posts
June 20 2011 02:31 GMT
#60
very interesting post... makes me think a lot about the current status of SC2
banelings
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