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Parliamentary elections will be held on 17th April 2011 and whole 200 seats will be open. So yes this is early thread about it.
First of all you might wanna check wikipedia page to see parties polls Wikipedia about Finnish election.
As you guys might remember Swedish general elections this year, there is same kind of atmosphere going on. Traditionally there is only 3 major parties which each party usually gets around 20% of votes. Election winner party leader is nominated to start coalition talks to form government. Usually it consists 2 major parties and 1-3 smaller parties.
Here are the parties and polls:
Bigger parties:
Centre Party (last elections winner though lost seats) with 18,6% poll (down a lot from elections which was 23,1%), currently holds 51 seats. Has big influence on smaller municipalities. Expected to lose lots of seats because party has been in power for 8 years now and had some fund raising scandals. Current party leader Mari Kiviniemi.
National Coalition Party (last election gained 50+1 seats, defected MP) with 21,1% poll (last election 22,3%). Economic liberal freedom to sum it up. Managed to hold their voters pretty well. Current party leader Jyrki Katainen. Currently sits in government coalition.
Social Democrats (last election only got 45 seats, down 8 seats) with 18,4% poll ( last election 21.4%). Main voters comes from working class. Has close relationships on trade unions. Current party leader is Jutta Urpilainen. 2 out of 3 leaders from major parties are female.
Smaller parties:
Left Alliance with 7,9% poll (8,2% last election) is more leftist than Social democrats.
Green League with 9,1% poll (8,5% last election) is environmental party. Currently sits in government coalition.
Christian Democrats with 4,5% poll (4,8% last election) is what its name says.
Swedish People's Party with 4,0% poll (4,5% last election) represents Swedish speaking minority. Usually always in government coalition.
True Finns with 14,9% poll (4,0% last election, currently 5 seats) is only party that opposes EU. Currently their partly leader Timo Soini is in EU though. Gained a lot of new votes past year. Party had 6,4% poll year ago and now is closing gap to major parties. Slightly hates immigration and uses EU problems to boost their party voting share.
Election day:
Advance voting between 6th and 12th April.
Actual day (17th of April) from 9:00 to 20:00 (9 AM to 8 PM)
Updating more when actual date closes by.
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YLE February polls 2011
Voter backing for the populist True Finns party has surged to 16.9 percent in a fresh survey conducted for YLE by pollster Taloustutkimus. Conversely, support for the Social Democrats has dropped to hitherto unseen levels.
The True Finns’ heady rise in the polls is continuing, with the party’s voter backing up by 0.3 percentage points since January. Although other parties made predictions of a fall in the True Finns' backing, the party’s support did not peak with the record January figures.
The conservative National Coalition Party retains the top spot with 20.9 percent backing. Their support increased by half a percent since last month.
The Centre Party’s standing has also improved somewhat, with 18.9 percent of the poll’s respondents opting in its favour. This is an increase of 0.4 percentage points on January.
The main opposition party, the Social Democrats, has suffered further drops in popularity. Only 17.5 percent of respondents supported it in January, which makes it the lowest result since YLE started measuring party backing in 2006.
Support for the Green League has also fallen. February’s figure stands at 8.5 percent, down by 0.7 since last month. In fact, current backing for the Greens is at exactly the same level as their result in the 2007 parliamentary elections.
The Left Alliance attracted 7.3 percent of poll respondents in February, which is a 0.1 percentage point rise since January.
February also brought a slight rise in the polls for the Christian Democrats and a slight fall for the Swedish People’s Party, whose backing stands now at 4.2 percent and 3.9 percent respectively. Since January, the Christian Democrats rose in the poll by 0.4 percentage points and the Swedish People’s Party fell by 0.2 percent.
The category “other” has grown in popularity, with 1.9 percent of respondents supporting parties currently without a parliamentary presence.
Taloustutkimus conducted phone interviews with 2,901 people in Finland between February 1 and 23. Of them, 67.9 respondents stated their party preference. In earlier surveys, about 71 percent of respondents have done so. The margin of error is 1.7 percentage points.
So it seems like about 1½ months to election we have officially 4 partys close to each other competing for government spot. Its rare situation as its always been only 3 parties close each other. Will be updating when elections closes in...
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True Finns gaining so much support, though I feel like it might start going down now aslong as the economy keeps recovering in the EU and bad shit doesn't happen.
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March polls
![[image loading]](http://yle.fi/ecepic/archive/00391/17_3_Puoluekannatus_391806b.jpg) From left to right: National Coalition Party Centre Party Social Democrats True Finns
![[image loading]](http://yle.fi/ecepic/archive/00391/17_3_Puoluekannatus_391805b.jpg) From left to right Green League Left Alliance Christian Democrats Swedish People's Party other small parties
YLE
A new opinion poll commissioned by YLE shows the conservative National Coalition remains the largest single party in the run-up to next month’s parliamentary election. Support for the party in March stood at 20.1 percent.
Support for the populist True Finns Party continues to rise. The party gained 17.2 percent of support, just a hair's breadth behind the Centre and Social Democratic parties, each with 18.1 percent support.
In this latest poll, the Green league gained nine percent of support followed by the Left Alliance with seven percent, with both the Christian Democrats each with around four percent.
Pollster Taloustutkimus interviewed 2,428 people earlier this month. Just over two-thirds of respondents revealed their party support. The margin of error is 1.6 percentage points. Finns go to the polls in exactly one month’s time on April, 17.
Helsingin Sanomat (largest daily newspaper in Finland) Poll
20.7% National Coalition Party 18.4% True Finns 18.3% Centre Party 17.4% Social Democrats
8.8% Green League 7.8% Left Alliance 4.1% Swedish People's Party 3.5% Christian Democrats N/A other small parties
2500 people interviewed, the margin of error is 2.0%
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It seems that more and more Europeans are voting for populist anti-immigration parties. Same thing's happened here in the Netherlands and from what I've heard this situation is also arising in France.
I find it hard to form an opinion on these events. If anyone knows any good articles on related subjects please share!
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It's an interesting situation, I'm anxious to see what happens.
I just hope True Finns won't win
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So I'm going to vote...
However, living outside of Finland, I'm not 100% familiar with every aspect of Finnish politics and the way votes are counted and distributed makes me a little confused. Moreover, my main motivation for voting is voting against True Finns rather than for someone specific. Although I've taken YLE's vaalikone and got my results there, I still want to know if there are any tactics that I could use to maximize the chances of my vote keeping True Finns out...
I've read up on wikipedia that the voting system in Finland, the d'Hondt method, favours the big parties and so I thought I should vote for one of the three other big parties, to maximize the effect of my vote. But then I read about how the parties can join together for the purpose of gathering votes and I guess that changes everything. I need to vote for someone who absolutely won't join with True Finns.
Moreover, there's a system in Norway that's meant to give small parties a fighting chance, as long as they're above the election threshhold. Thanks to this system, the Venstre party in Norway got 10 seats with 5,9% of the votes in 2005, but only 2 seats with 3,9% of the votes in 2009, with the election threshhold at 4%. Thus, if I wanted to maximize my vote against someone else than Venstre, if my vote could have tipped the scales so that Venstre got 4% of the votes, it might have meant 3-4 seats less for other parties, possibly being the party I voted against. Is there any analogy to this system in Finland? In addition, the election threshhold is at 3%, right? I may not agree to much with any of the parties under 3% enough to vote for them, but I like having all the facts when I make my decision. And again, they should absolutely not join with True Finns.
So, in short: Could someone explain, or give me a link to, which parties are likely to join up for the purpose of gathering votes, and which will most certainly not join up with True Finns? In addition, could anyone tell me what the effects of bringing a party above the election threshhold is? Finally, any insight into how to maximize the effect of one's vote, that I haven't thought of, is of course, also welcome. (Links in Finnish as well as English are also okay).
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On April 04 2011 18:47 iMAniaC wrote: So, in short: Could someone explain, or give me a link to, which parties are likely to join up for the purpose of gathering votes, and which will most certainly not join up with True Finns? In addition, could anyone tell me what the effects of bringing a party above the election threshhold is? Finally, any insight into how to maximize the effect of one's vote, that I haven't thought of, is of course, also welcome. (Links in Finnish as well as English are also okay).
It depends on which district you have right to vote, but you can check them here:
http://www.vaalikone.fi/
Choose your district, and then choose not to answer the questions. You can then see the alliances at the top, but I'm pretty sure true finns are big enough to not be allied with anyone. Also, there is no treshold.
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Elections will be held this weeks Sunday. Advance voting is possible till tomorrow. Most likely major updates going to happen Sunday. There will be live streaming (most likely finnish language) available. Don't know if major english news stations will cover it (they did it 4 years ago though).
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http://areena.yle.fi/live
Live stream starts in around 35 min or 19:30... Time is now 18:55 (Finnish though)
Predicted end results are given by YLE at 21:15 gmt+2 (not final results, but this prediction is accurate)
Advanced voting (32% all votes possible) results are being revealed 20:00 and votes been added when they come to system from todays voting.
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Voted. If for no other reason than to make sure PS doesnt get too much control.
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http://yle.fi/uutiset/news/2011/04/brisk_start_to_election_day_voting_2521778.html
Polling stations in Helsinki, Lapua and Tampere reported heightened voting activity, with queues developing at some locations. In Helsinki’s Kallio district, some voters had already formed queues ahead of the official opening of local polling stations.
Martti Pöyhönen told YLE that he was looking forward to the result of today’s election. "I’ve already bought buns and coffee to cheer when my candidate becomes a Member of Parliament,” he said of his choice.
For her part, voter Sanna Pykäläinen said the election debates had helped reinforce her election day choice. “I already knew in advance who I’d vote for and all of the pre-election debates have confirmed my decision,” she explained.
Voters have until eight o’clock Sunday evening to influence the look and tone of the new Parliamentary line-up. By then political pundits would have already compiled the results of advance voting.
Some 32 percent of voters chose to cast their ballots ahead of election day, compared to 29 percent during the 2007 parliamentary election.
Election day ballots will be counted by the Election Board. After 8.00 pm, YLE will broadcast its initial exit polls, which have closely reflected the final winners and losers for the past decade.
Election officials will have an initial count of ballots cast across the country by midnight Sunday.
YLE
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On December 02 2010 09:39 Too_MuchZerg wrote: True Finns with 14,9% poll (4,0% last election, currently 5 seats) is only party that opposes EU. Currently their partly leader Timo Soini is in EU though. Gained a lot of new votes past year. Party had 6,4% poll year ago and now is closing gap to major parties. Slightly hates immigration and uses EU problems to boost their party voting share. That's what I would have voted on if I was finnish.
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http://yle.fi/uutiset/news/2011/04/possible_delays_counting_advance_ballots_in_oulu_2522202.html
Election officials in Oulu say they’re not certain to complete counting advance ballots cast in the 2011 Parliamentary election.
Early Sunday evening Mika Penttilä, Returning Officer for the Oulu Electoral Board signaled that the results of advance voting in the Oulu electoral district could take longer than usual. About 114,000 electors took advantage of the opportunity to cast early ballots.
Voting activity on the official poll day Sunday was also brisk in Oulu, with early projections of voter turnout forecast at over 70 percent.
YLE
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"Jos äänestämällä voisi vaikuttaa, se kiellettäisiin lailla"
Didn't vote and most likely never will, Until there someone with at least half a brain left.
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Um can anyone explain to me how Finland has an anti immigration party when they take like 100 refugees per year? =p
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Timo Soini will be getting soooo many votes for True Finns :<
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over 1,2 million advance voters. About 1,0 million will be available at 20:00 results.
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Votes coming in
THESE ARE ACTUAL RESULTS COMING IN
20.2% National Coalition Party 17.3% Centre Party 19.5% Social Democrats 18.6% True Finns 6.4% Green League 8.3% Left Alliance 4.3% Christian Democrats 3.5% Swedish People's Party 0.4% Pirate Party 1.6% other small parties
Will edit results for few minutes in
About 36% off all votes
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Seems like there is gonna be Rainbow coalition. As there is 4 parties around 20% so government parties needs multiple parties to hold majority seats comfortably.
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