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On March 04 2011 21:02 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +As for the lynch, I will take my time before voting (lololol), as I'm more confused as to why mafia chose to go for bumatlarge. How does that sentence even make sense?  Show nested quote +If anything, the fact that he "failed to vote for either mafia" makes me think he's town, as Mafia bussed Annul, and perhaps Seraph as well. That's the first time I hear you say that it was a bus? Care to elaborate? You fishing for medics? Really, I'm having a hard time understanding your "confused" posts. You are confused that bum got killed, but you aren't confused mafia decides to hit a guy who by means of posting during the night was almost guranteed to be a topic today. And you seem really willing to believe him to boot.
Way to take everything out of context buddy.
On March 04 2011 21:02 Barundar wrote:How does that sentence even make sense?
I don't understand why they chose bumatlarge. What's not to understand?
If I were mafia I would go for a lot of other people, like Ser Aspi, LSB, GM, LunarD, etc. Heck, even you would make a better target.
I need to go over bum's posts to see what he did to piss them off.
That's the first time I hear you say that it was a bus? Care to elaborate?
What? I said they bussed annul before. The fact that:
- nobody defends x
- x wins lynch
- x flips red
Indicates a bus.
The fact that it was apparently tied, (7-7?!) means that probably mafia have chosen to throw him under.
Or are you saying that everyone who voted for Seraph is cleared? And 4 of those who voted for JBright are scum right?
You fishing for medics?
Yeah, because that's what I said:
If so, you should really consider that mafia knew you were not on Foolishness.
Not claim, but think that WHOEVER YOU TOLD WHO YOU ARE DEFENDING, might be Mafia.
I never said medic should claim and I never, ever, ever encouraged anyone to claim.
But I guess that's your definition of being "aggressive", putting words in someone's mouth... well you know what I mean.
but you aren't confused mafia decides to hit a guy who by means of posting during the night was almost guranteed to be a topic today
I only noticed that he got hit after I posted the first who things.
And you seem to be awfully sure that the mafia hit him. How so?
I don't see any reason for mafia to hit him, especially since Foolishness just posted about him (Ser also). I believe it was most likely a vigilante. Why are you so quick to dismiss this?
I was just considering the option of mafia hitting him, in light of the 3kps being distributed evenly. But unless a medic informed someone of who they will protect I really have doubts that mafia would just shoot Foolishness once, as, of all people, he is by FAR most likely to be protected.
But ok, let's just put our heads in the ground and have no vigs claim, no medics think about maybe they are trusting the wrong people, and assume that mafia is not thinking their hits through.
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On March 04 2011 13:31 kevconsim wrote:
##Vote Jackal58
I dont like him and he annoys me on a personal level. Im not mafia and i figure either me or LA is gonna get voted so it doesnt really matter who i vote for. Good luck town.
I'm sorry. Need a tissue?
##UNVOTE Last Argument
##VOTE kevconsim
A million apologies to you Foolishness but I gotta stick with my gut on this one. LA in my opinion is probably scum but kevconsim is much more of a certainty to me.
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Hi guys, sorry I was away yesterday. Going to catch up now.
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Interesting....I actually thought that you, ohN, and LD were all scum but this post makes that wrong....
Unless.....you're the GF and they were regular mafia. The pressure is on you so you need to sell out one of your underlings to keep your 1 KP and only losing 0.5 KP instead. Your post is so scum it's not even funny:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 25 2011 06:34 LunarDestiny wrote:
I read about the last three pages and found not very strong reasons that Annul is scum.
I don't see much scum tell in his vote switch from Chaoser to Gmarshall. Annul did justify his vote on Gmarshall on why his plan is bad.
Another thing people keep mentioning is the aggressiveness how Annul is playing which looks like how he played in XXXV where he was scum. The difference is there he was accusing LSB being scum with flawed reasons. This game, he actually justified his vote and did provide reasons unlike the old "LSB postings are spams and have few contributions."
I played with Annul many times before and it seems that he is always aggressive on day1.
XXXV: Accused LSB mafia because he spams and don't contribute much.
Merc Mafia: Claimed medic to me (day vig) and planned to have 100% town victory.
Survivor Mafia (ongoing): After the quick 3 people alliance, he rallied and formed the counter 5 people alliance to take control of the game.
This game compared to other games I played with Annul, I consider that he is playing less aggressive. This post is prime example of day 1 defending of a dead mafia. It soft claim defends annul. He compares the behaviour of 3 games of annul, 1 red, 2 town. In each of the three games he played very similarly except in game 1 as mafia he used bad logic to get someone killed. The link here is between this current game and that game, he was playing much differently from his town norm, revealing him as red. This would easily be seen from the looking from game as town and game as red of annul, but instead he tries to link all 3 games under the same style, when 1 was definitely different. Misrepresenting the facts is something one would do to defend ones teammate. On February 25 2011 07:58 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +LSB: Storytime! Why Annul was an easy read in XXXV
1) He mad up stuff and pushed stuff that didn't exist
Check, this game he's pushing GMarshal, saying GMarshal is clear mafia, although there is literally nothing in his accusation
2) Besides responses, he posted nothing else
Look at Annul's posts. How many of his posts deal with things other than Gmarshal or defending himself? I can't find any. Looked over Annul's posts: 1) He posts are generally short and don't have much content to them. I do find Annul saying Gmarshall is mafia based only on his circle thing is not convincing. 2) This is the part I disagree. Annul did what most people will do in this situation. He attacked someone whom he believe is mafia and defended himself when he was in huge danger of being lynched. If he didn't go after someone, ok... since not everyone got a mafia read on day1. And his defense on himself is normal behavior. To determine if he is really mafia, you have to look at the time when he felt pressured and tried to redirect the lynch to another person (Gmarshall in this case) and if there are any support from others. People did pointed out Gmarshall's circle thing is a horrible idea but no one voted for him after Annul's switch. Again he slightly defends annul here by trying to use a wifom defense for annul, while then redirecting to another player. He also mentions how people pointed out how bad the idea of the circles was, when the major objectors were gryff, annul. Seraph posted against it briefly (flipped red), lunar did, and ohn did. Almost no one else was opposed. Reservations possibly had in that the groups created could have been fixed if gm is red. However, when we know two of the main group flipped up red, and one of which is the person lunar is defending you see a pattern.
Pretty much a copy and paste of Foolishness' post on him on Day 2 that can be found here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=191888¤tpage=54#1073
You add in a little flavor and change the words around to try to present it like it's your own analysis but it's been said and done better by foolishness. Foolishness summed it up nicely as "Your PM to me didn't match up with what you did". You basically took a roundabout way of saying that. That's disrespectful, taking a dead man's words.
Lets move on to day 2.
On February 27 2011 14:44 LunarDestiny wrote:
Back. Catchup time...
So mafia are targeting experienced players like they always do.
People are talking about annul's lynch and there is a bus on annul. First of all, I don't think mafia would sacrifice one of their member to make others more safe. So those who voted annul early or greatly accused him aren't likely to be mafia. Those who jump onto the bandwagon or voted late without giving good reasons should be looked at.
Post doesn’t say much other than recap generally what everyone was talking about, fairly useless.
Oh really now? What about these useless posts? I wonder who wrote them...
On February 23 2011 15:46 LastArgument wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2011 15:23 gryffindor wrote:
with 30, i doubt there are 8
5-6 is much more likely, with 6 being more likely, unless they start with roles (which I doubt)
due to the mechanics
5 with an SK I would believe would be balanced as well, but i'm seeing 6 and 2.5-3kp, or something like "you may not kill 3 people" as 3 kp is a bit much right now
we will learn soon enough. It is also possible they get to pick to be permanent, or nightly. I'm not quite sure on the mechanic. Lets assume it is permanent, and they pick a GF and a role reverser
they'd still have 1.5kp which would round up to 2 afaik
The best thing to do is to not come out if you're a hatter, for sure
If you're a cop, I wouldn't come out unless you have a guilty, or are pressured
I wouldn't ever claim as medic, unless someone you protected and saved is up for lynch
Veteran is OK to claim, many setups have bulletproofs claiming first
Vigilante is OK to claim TOMORROW if you claim who you are going to kill - Don't claim today, as you can't kill tonight As you asked what I found troublesome about this post. as per the town guide found http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=188179You did what would be as general talking. Rather than being specific with the use of the roles you mention you instead mention generalities. It also a post that lacks emphasis on the fundamental skill in which it has been suggested towns need to play by which is behavioural analysis. This and factoring in your earlier claim makes it seem fairly odd no?
So basically you explained what general talking is; which is explained in the guide anyway.
On February 28 2011 04:42 LastArgument wrote:I have spent some time trying to organize my thoughts and here is some of what I have thought on. First off two players stand out more than others to me. Icanflylow(now bumatlarge) and LSB. I know LSB has been analyzed by barundar. There is however one post that strikes me as particularly useless made by LSB that should be used as a reason for an obvious lynch. Show nested quote +On February 27 2011 04:26 LSB wrote:
There are three goals for night kills
1) Take out good players
2) Take out blues
3) Take out active players.
Generally TL mafia shoots down all active players until the town kills itself with inactivity.
Now, we can devide the people into 4 groups
Btw, I define bus as mafia started lynch.
Priority 1: Automatic night 1 snipes if possible
These players are proven scumhunters
LSB
Foolishness
Priority 2: Active vets
These player have quiet a few games under their belt and are pretty active
Barundar
CubEdIn
darmousseh
GMarshal
Beneather
seRapH
kitaman27
Mr. Wiggles
chaoser
LunarDestiny
deconduo
why
Priority 3: Kill if you think they are blue
These players are generally inactive, or easily to bus
Coagulation
Jackal58
Kenpachi
annul
gryffindor
ohN
Uncatagorized: Newish people, sort them into the three groups as they start playing
icemac
OriginalName
JBright
astroorion
Gofarman
MaxwellE
Conversion
kevconsim
ICanFlyLow
Ser Aspi
LastArgument
Please note, this isn't really indicative of skill. Someone like Jackal58 who is good at finding scum is increadibly easy to bus. On the other hand, people like DocH and Pandain (they aren't playing) are active, but aren't really good at finding scum.
And this is all subjective some names I don't recognize, and I made it off of what I remember. Especially Priority 1 This post ranks players in three catagories. 1 being the “top players” 2 being ones who have experience or shown to have it 3 being people who have less experience than 2 4 being new players. However, if you start reading the post more carefully, you will realize it’s a post indicating how the mafia “should” hit people to avoid off the radar. Now, a mafia reading this post now knows how to properly divide hits to maximize the team from dying. It doesn’t directly say how we should be saving those people, or how to analyze them. (note: he makes a short post on “how to use this list” right after but essentially says its useless till day 4-5). This list didn’t provide people who should be dt checked, it didn’t provide a list of who should be medic protected. It instead provided a long post that doesn’t help the town as much as it helps mafia. Why make a post as town that shows activity but barely helps the town at all? This could be a lack of experience on my part, but it surprises me this post was made without further detailing or breaking down of how the town can use the information aside from “bide and wait till people die to pin the reds” Bumatlarge Show nested quote +On February 27 2011 10:29 bumatlarge wrote:
Well I read into the whole annul thing, and it doesn't seem to be an organized bus. Especially with that little squirming performance, but then dropping it quickly in a manner I'd expect from him as scum. I didn't find much to point out on who was leading the accusations, but it does give me a nice ladelful of confidence for the town. Deconduo is not scum I feel, and mostly everyone behind it is likely not. GMarshal is a bit tricky because he seems a little too apologetic, but I've only played with him as town, and he would tend to get apologetic when he isn't inquisitive. Maybe he's just more confident?
Anyway, I think annul is probably the better catches for town to get early. I think town would be better served in pressuring the more reserved since that roster seems fairly slim in this game. I like icemac as a lynch target, and others like him that don't quite cut the bill. They are much easier to tell apart then good townie players that keep their mouths in check but speak when it is right, such as ohn.
LSB is silly. This is his second post in the game, he clears one player of suspicion, FoS two players, one of which is responsible for the most pro town idea this game. It isn’t much to go on, but based on all the pages the thread has, the only thing he was able to comment on was the annul lynch? And do generalization FoS on players without anything solid? Seems off to me.
And then you go on to talk extensively about the list, when that is covered by THE VERY SAME GUIDE YOU JUST LINKED under the category:
Talking about issues that allow mafia to easily blend in
Talking about it is easy and pretty much anyone can take a side whether against the list or not due to differing people's opinions on it combined with people's different levels of paranoia. You can't really pin someone just cause they are AGAINST the list or FOR the list.
You then go on to talk about LD's votes and criticize them...let's look at yours
On February 25 2011 04:59 LastArgument wrote:
I will be voting Icanflylow until a more suitable target can be brought up. As of now there is too much on either side of the fence to lynch one of gm/annul/chaoser/ice whereas icanflylow has posted once in the thread jumping on a bandwagon and not providing real input into the game. This vote may change depending on arguments brought forward, however 1 post to poorly justify ones vote on a bandwagon seems far to scum like to ignore at this moment.
If he has been active in pm's someone let me know so that my view of him may be changed, but as of right now he seems the least contributing member of the game.
##vote icanflylow
and
On March 03 2011 08:57 LastArgument wrote:
I'm heading out for a bit and just got home from work and should be back before voting. However, until then.
##vote Jbright
Yeah....I don't think I need to cover what Foolishness has already covered in terms of voting. Foolishness points out pretty concisely that you've read the guide and that you've clearly had the ability to think and post constructively, but you didn't.
At 16 total posts, I'd say you've been trying to hide all game real hard, only really posting big posts when you needed to, like now.
Godfather, you going down.
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Cubedin's post implies knowledge mafia doublestacked on Foolishness
He is also poisoning the well, mudslinging on relative clears from wagons.
He can say all he wants about me not being essentially clear, but I was online, voting Seraph, with it at fucking 7-7 on votecount. I could have EASILY shifted my vote to JBright without any heat being thrown on me if I was scum, saying "oh, well, at least I was on annul". Given that 14/16 people left in the game seem to be putting me in the "this guy is solidly town" category, I'm wondering if the other 2 don't KNOW I'm town... but LastArgument hasn't been counterclaimed as Veteran... so I'm wondering if his claim is legit. That would also sort of diminish my suspicion of CubedIn if he isn't lying, as it would just make the doublestack speculation. I was honestly wondering if that was the case, and if mafia did that I wouldn't blame them, so perhaps I am being a little biased in seeing him say that and associating his tone/word usage with the way scum would word that, because I would have worded it differently myself as town.
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Ok Gryff, answer me only this:
If you were mafia and you wanted to kill Foolishness, would you only use one KP?
I don't know who's putting you on Solid town, as I didn't hear people around here coming to defend you at any point. I'm just saying, you're not addressing any of the accusations I made recently, you're using pure WIFOM "If I were mafia, would I not shift vote"??! Well I don't know man, is JB green??!? Because if they're both red it doesn't really matter who you voted for, right?
Cuz I'm sitting here trying to defend against people that automatically assume that JB is green/blue, and I have no freaking idea why that is.
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First of all, regarding LA:
1) Mafia hit
2) Vig hit
3) Lie
1. Is extremely unlikely for obvious reasons. Only thing I can think of would be an attempted blue snipe. His lurking would draw mafia just as it drew town attention. Even still, much better targets out there imo.
2. No vig has claimed and theres no reason for them to stay quiet.
3. Most obvious scenario. Huge analysis done against him and suddenly he's hit? Again, a vig hit would make sense because of this but no-one has claimed.
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I would still be very suspicious of JBright. He himself tried to get lynched ahead of Seraph. He dropped a vote on himself to even the lynch with 6 minutes to go. The way I see it mafia probably wanted him lynched ahead of seraph thinking seraph had a better chance in later days. The 'modkill' excuse feels really weak.
Also he hasn't posted since the lynch at all.
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I don't understand why they chose bumatlarge. What's not to understand?
If I were mafia I would go for a lot of other people, like Ser Aspi, LSB, GM, LunarD, etc. Heck, even you would make a better target.
I need to go over bum's posts to see what he did to piss them off.
I don't see why bum is such a bad target. He's a pretty good player even if he hadn't been posting a whole lot this game. Even then, if I was mafia I'd have pegged him as a blue because of it.
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First of all, Vig who hit LastArgument, please claim.
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I find it weird that LastArgument is a veteran. What should a veteran do? Absorb hit from mafia. In this game, LastArgument didn't post a lot and lurked like hell. He makes very little effort to take an hit from mafia.
I believe that it wasn't mentioned that mafia could have used a KP on him. One might argue that it make no sense for mafia to hit a hugely suspected town. But look at kenpachi's death. Although Kenpachi is less suspected than LastArgument, Kenpachi was still consider as bad target to use KP on. The reason reason for mafia to use KP on LastArgument is that mafia just want to lower the amount of players.
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United States22154 Posts
On March 05 2011 04:09 LunarDestiny wrote:
First of all, Vig who hit LastArgument, please claim.
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I find it weird that LastArgument is a veteran. What should a veteran do? Absorb hit from mafia. In this game, LastArgument didn't post a lot and lurked like hell. He makes very little effort to take an hit from mafia.
I believe that it wasn't mentioned that mafia could have used a KP on him. One might argue that it make no sense for mafia to hit a hugely suspected town. But look at kenpachi's death. Although Kenpachi is less suspected than LastArgument, Kenpachi was still consider as bad target to use KP on. The reason reason for mafia to use KP on LastArgument is that mafia just want to lower the amount of players.
Right, but why hit someone who is likely going to be lynched the next day, thus wasting the towns kp? A better target would have been someone like gryffindor or chaoser, who despite having some suspicion on them did not have two huge posts written up on them that are likely to lead to their untimely deaths.
Generally mafia KP go after active players who are a threat to them or likely blues, not players who are going to be hung the next day.
If mafia did shoot LA then they are obviously high, if a vigi shot him then its in our best interest for him to claim. More likely then not however LA is a panicked scum who is lying, and mafia either reduced their kp by using powers or double stacking on foolishness (or they are just down to two kp)
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I claim vig. I shot LA last night after reading Foolishness's analysis.
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Some food for thought, is Jbright town or mafia?
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Oh I feel dumb, Seraph would have been modkilled anyways so there would be no real reason to try to off Jbright, besides just killing one more townie.
LastArgument.
He sounds like a smurf to me, he obviously knows what he is doing and throwing around terminology a lot, something a 'new player' wouldn't be inclined to do.
At the same time though, I don't agree with his analysis of LunarDestiny.
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He seemed like a decent choice for a bullet.
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United States22154 Posts
Alright, so this either confirms you two or is a desperate scum gamble to survive, if we hung either of you the other would be confirmed, however the price of that confirmation is bringing us one day closer to lylo if you guys aren't a scumteam...
So, people what are your thoughts on the topic? If we lynch LA we confirm LSB as town or scum depending on the flip, alternatively we could just ignore that and go after kevinconism/others as our lynch of the day and worry about LSB and LA tomorrow, hoping that a mafia hit would flip one of them for us.
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Lynch LSB. If he's vigi then we have 100% confirmed in LA being a vet since I doubt medics protected him. If LSB is red then LA is red too.
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LSB, if you were vigi, why didn't you hit barundar yourself? You were calling for a hit on him?
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United States22154 Posts
On March 03 2011 12:48 LSB wrote:
Again, I think we should just suggest night 3 actions
Medics, please protect Me and Foolishness.
Vigs, if you want, you should shoot Barundar. There isn't enough on Gmarshal to justify a kill.
DTs, continue checking Priority 3 people
Also LSB I call shenanigans if you wanted a vigi to shoot Barundar then you could have done it yourself, why didn't you? You have been calling for that shot for two days now, interesting that you didn't take it.
I suspect you aren't a vigi at all but a mafia godfather
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EPT
