|
AlsoHmm, also something interesting to note is:
-Both scum teams may have not known there was another scum team initially
-Black Scum knew there was another scum team as soon as D1 ended. This initially read as true and a neat thought. But...has anyone EVER seen a black team with no red team? I haven't, so I'm assuming that black knew red was out there the moment they got their PMs.
|
On October 06 2012 09:27 austinmcc wrote:
So two factions. Still only a single night KP. Either we had protects or...we're probably at 2 red unknown black and one team might have no KP?
I think I'm going to focus on other game for tonight, come back tomorrow morning with full thoughts on this. It means we need to re-evaluate the iamperfection lynch, look for connections to crossfire, blah blah blah.
I think killing drazerk is the right move today. A "one-shot vig" seems REALLY unlikely in this game, but if there's KP missing then there ARE unaccounted for night shots. Which someone might claim in case he was spotted...who could that be?
##Vote: Drazerk
Why are you already voting to kill Drazerk if you haven't "thought fully of this"?
Same with you Hiro, do you have any thoughts about the whole 2-scum teams at all before parking your vote on Drazerk?
We just realized there are 2 factions (we townies), we can't just instantly accept a Drazerk lynch without thinking about this first.
It's possible Drazerk is town, just as it's possible he's from 1 scum faction and the scum from the other one are jumping on his lynch without consequences; and both of those suck (the latter not so much of course, but it will waste the whole day)
I'm getting weirded out by all of you guys coming out of nowhere and instantly voting Drazerk without even thinking twice even though the game completely changed.
I mean, I didn't see anybody (other than Drazerk of course) even flinch at Keirathi/S&B after X's flip for instance. Did everybody just assume they were town and didn't even try to think about it? Come on guys you are better than this.
If you still want to lynch Drazerk fine vote him but don't just come say "yeah lol Drazerk obvious scum from some faction", park your vote and do nothing else and then disappear without even acknowledging there are 2 factions (or without trying to cope with it or anything).
Maybe I just fail at trying to make sense of Drazerk. Him claiming shooting S&B makes little sense as scum to be honest (if he was scum shooting him he could have kept his mouth shut). He's making 0 effort though and that's damning as hell.
Could one of you guys that are absolutely sure Drazerk is red tell me why he'd claim S&B's shot and claim an "improbable" role?
Anyways, Drazerk you should probably claim your full role and role name this time
|
On October 06 2012 09:36 austinmcc wrote: Also Show nested quote +Hmm, also something interesting to note is:
-Both scum teams may have not known there was another scum team initially
-Black Scum knew there was another scum team as soon as D1 ended. This initially read as true and a neat thought. But...has anyone EVER seen a black team with no red team? I haven't, so I'm assuming that black knew red was out there the moment they got their PMs.
Yep this my be true though. Specially since it's "Aperture Mafia" (and the flavour from Day posts and shit).
So BS knew RS ever since the beginning. Can we assume RS didn't know about BS until this day though? I don't remember GlaDOS's role giving any indication that they could spy roles or other alignments or something like that.
Also, Xfire didn't have any "KP" per se, he only had KP if someone targeted him at night and he could use it on the guy above or below him in the list (thank god he didn't use it on me :/ ). If the other black dude has a similar "non-straight-kp" role, all KP may be accounted for if Drazerk is town.
If Drazerk is scum...then maybe it was the KP from the 2nd black dude? If he's scum I'm getting trouble to think of him as red if red already have KP.
RS having normal KP plus a vig-shot from Drazerk is too much against the BS who have very limited KP.
Thoughts?
|
On October 06 2012 09:47 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2012 09:27 austinmcc wrote:
So two factions. Still only a single night KP. Either we had protects or...we're probably at 2 red unknown black and one team might have no KP?
I think I'm going to focus on other game for tonight, come back tomorrow morning with full thoughts on this. It means we need to re-evaluate the iamperfection lynch, look for connections to crossfire, blah blah blah.
I think killing drazerk is the right move today. A "one-shot vig" seems REALLY unlikely in this game, but if there's KP missing then there ARE unaccounted for night shots. Which someone might claim in case he was spotted...who could that be?
##Vote: Drazerk
Why are you already voting to kill Drazerk if you haven't "thought fully of this"? Same with you Hiro, do you have any thoughts about the whole 2-scum teams at all before parking your vote on Drazerk?
We just realized there are 2 factions (we townies), we can't just instantly accept a Drazerk lynch without thinking about this first. It's possible Drazerk is town, just as it's possible he's from 1 scum faction and the scum from the other one are jumping on his lynch without consequences; and both of those suck (the latter not so much of course, but it will waste the whole day) I'm getting weirded out by all of you guys coming out of nowhere and instantly voting Drazerk without even thinking twice even though the game completely changed. I mean, I didn't see anybody (other than Drazerk of course) even flinch at Keirathi/S&B after X's flip for instance. Did everybody just assume they were town and didn't even try to think about it? Come on guys you are better than this. If you still want to lynch Drazerk fine vote him but don't just come say "yeah lol Drazerk obvious scum from some faction", park your vote and do nothing else and then disappear without even acknowledging there are 2 factions (or without trying to cope with it or anything).
Maybe I just fail at trying to make sense of Drazerk. Him claiming shooting S&B makes little sense as scum to be honest (if he was scum shooting him he could have kept his mouth shut). He's making 0 effort though and that's damning as hell. Could one of you guys that are absolutely sure Drazerk is red tell me why he'd claim S&B's shot and claim an "improbable" role? Anyways, Drazerk you should probably claim your full role and role name this time
Did you read my post? 2 scum teams means that each team probably only has 2 people and it explains why drazerk would be concerned about survival when he normally doesn't care - his only partner's already dead. And it also fits in with Crossfire being black.
And having 2 scum teams doesn't really change much other than that. Crossfire's the only person who I had a read on based pretty much on the voting and he's dead.
I have no idea why people think the role itself is improbable. 1 shot-vig is definitely possible in this setup for any faction. But him revealing that he shot s&b doesn't make him any more likely town - if he hadn't revealed that, and there's a tracker/watcher out there, he could have been caught instantly.
|
And I'd like you to do this, gonzaw:
Walk me through your thoughts - at what specific points did your read on JingleHell shift between bad townie and sccum.
|
How do you know this? They're a scum team - why wouldn't they follow the normal formula.
RS having normal KP plus a vig-shot from Drazerk is too much against the BS who have very limited KP.
|
What about all other scum that use their KP? If a tracker/watcher got on Xfire's kill they would have gotten a RS, yet that doesn't mean the RS went on claiming he shot Xfire as vig.
...although S&B survived, maybe if he died Drazerk would have kept his mouth shut; but after S&B survived he claimed the shot as a vig. Hmm, could be.
Ghost
So....let's talk about ghost.
I'm getting a feeling he might be BS.
I don't want to waste time on his earlier posts since I have to eat right now, but we all know what he did.
He "trolled" on D1 (with that "aggressive mighty town muthafocker" attitude), disappeared all late D1-N1-early D2; vote S&B, disappeared the rest of D2 and N2 and came back one time at N2 to make a horrible post (this, if someone wants I can break it down for you, but if it's not necessary I won't).
He doesn't do shit ever since parking his vote on S&B, and when he comes back he doesn't acknowledge shit that happened. Doesn't acknowledge S&B's claim, doesn't acknowledge Nisani's flip; he straight up quotes 1 post of me and decides it's "the scummiest thing ever" out of nowhere without even addressing me everything else I did or anything anybody did.
Of course he completely disappeared after that.
I'm getting the BS feel because of Xfire mostly.
Here are the times he mentions ghost:
On October 02 2012 10:13 Crossfire99 wrote:
Oh, I also think this makes ghost town because there's no way a scum would attack his own, so early and leave his vote on him all day despite people trying to convince him otherwise.
On October 02 2012 11:08 Crossfire99 wrote:
I mean the first person that iamperfection attacks hard and sticks with all day is ghost. I think that is good reason for ghost being town.
On October 04 2012 09:15 Crossfire99 wrote:
First things, first. I will say that I still have my same town reads on Mattchew, hiro, and ghost. I explained them in an earlier post but they're basically due to day 1 voting. I still see keirathi as town as well due to activity, boldness, confidence and his posting behavior.
Gonzaw, what's with this whole thing between you and jingle? I'm going to take a closer look at it, but would like to hear your opinion on it.
On October 06 2012 08:00 Crossfire99 wrote:
Ok, I'm gonna post my reads that I have right now. I am sticking with my same townie view of Mattchew, hiro, and ghost due to the day 1 votes....
He has his town read on him just because "iamperfection attacked him, and iamp wouldn't bus his scumbuddy so early", and never dwelled on that again.
Granted, he mentioned Matt and Hiro too, but at least Matt and Hiro were seen as townies by most people and had "nailed" iampe by voting him. Ghost didn't vote iamp.
I know it's not that damning, the thing I'm thinking is that....why defend ghost like that at all? We established BS knew there was a RS at least since IAMP flipped (and maybe even since D1). Nobody else defended ghost like that, so it seemed weird Xfire would defend ghost like that if ghost wasn't his partner.
I'm getting the feeling again because he justifies his read on him only once, and never puts any attention on him again, other than "my town read on him is still the same" but even then he groups him with a group of other people (Matt Hiro) so ghost goes unnoticed if anybody reads Xfire's post.
Thoughts people?
Also, even if we 100% determine ghost is BS....do we lynch him? Scum KP seems to be more dangerous than whatever BS have (melee conditional KP and that shit), so maybe it can be better to try and lynch a RS and maybe let RS deal with ghost (although I doubt they will, like in Liar Game).
|
On October 06 2012 10:00 HiroPro wrote:How do you know this? They're a scum team - why wouldn't they follow the normal formula. Show nested quote +RS having normal KP plus a vig-shot from Drazerk is too much against the BS who have very limited KP.
Where was last night's shot then? If that's the case there's an unaccounted KP from a save/something someone didn't claim (why wouldn't they?)
If that's the case too, then BS can turn things around and have like double KP (remember Xfire's role), and that (again) seems kind of unbalanced against town (since BS most likely will shoot town).
I get the feeling BS don't have KP and normal scum do; but BS have conditional KP and all that complex weird shit.
Kind of like the demons and angels from Purgatory Mafia. Scum (angels) have KP while BS (demons) have other stuff to take down players
|
On October 06 2012 09:58 HiroPro wrote:And I'd like you to do this, gonzaw: Show nested quote +Walk me through your thoughts - at what specific points did your read on JingleHell shift between bad townie and sccum.
Didn't I post that in my 1st post from N1?
If you mean last night...at no points. I was in doubt of his alignment ever since Nisani flipped with a gut feeling of town. After he spent all page 39 screaming at me, I had more doubts and thought "He could be scum and never even try to make a case against me and just skate by with this "oh gonzaw obvs scum" thing forever" so I tried to see if he'd make a case against me or something.
Meh, after that I got the same town gut read.
After this reveal I'm not so sure, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, at least to see how he reacts to this new info.
|
Gonzaw,
I'm not absolutely sure he's scum, and I'm not absolutely sure he's red.
Based on the flips we've seen, the claims we've seen, and the role PM you got, how likely do you think "one-shot vigi" is a role in this game? I'm at about 0% right now.
If he's not that, why does he lie about his role? (1) He's drazerk and just claiming fake roles; (2) he needs to explain a shot and claimed a role to do so
(1) doesn't make me not want to lynch him. I found his D1 votes scummy. I found his transition between D1 blah play and D2 drazerk-y play to be odd. After seeing a black faction slip, one explanation for the change in play is "oh hey we lynched a guy from the other faction D1." There's a big difference between his D1 disinterested votes and snb tunnelling --> "oh hey guys lightning rods and lynch keirathi/snb" stuff.
(2) points to red or black for me. We've had single NKs both nights, with 2 actual factions based on those PMs. Might be missing some factional KP that was protected.
In either case, there's also just the added Drazerk factor on top of things. I don't want him around at LYLO. I don't want him around NEAR LYLO if I don't know how many scum there are, because I've got no clue when LYLO hits. And even if Drazerk has KP but is a TOWN vigi, I don't love the idea of him firing off shots because of this whole snb/keirathi thing.
Following paragraph is a MESS. I'm going to try and work through it more because this is just a bunch of thoughts and I'm not sure they're coherent.
+ Show Spoiler +They might not be same faction. But we won't know until/unless we flip BOTH of them. If we lynch snb and he's town, that doesn't tell us what keirathi is. If we flip keirathi and he's town, it doesn't tell us what snb is. Drazerk's whole worry is that they're not same alignment, yet he wants to flip one of them. Flipping one would be great if BOTH are scum. Flipping one is BAD if both are town AND doesn't tell us the alignment of the other. Flipping one is...mixed if one is scum and one is town, because if we flip town we don't know about scum and if we flip scum we probably flip the other guy and he's town? I dunno. That's one thing I'll think on. But the whole "let's flip one GOGOGOGO" routine doesn't feel townie.
Side note: Just saw the ghost bit. That's a good find.
|
Hey gents, just got home and caught up with the thread. What the fuck. Two anti-town factions.
Now, obviously, obligatory comment on how this actually increases the numerical chances of gonzaw being some sort of scum.
Despite that, I find myself having to be objective here... he's not been nuts about talking about third party unless someone else brought it up, and that makes me think that if he's scum, he's normal scum, and odds are, we can look for our Black Mesa types within the people who kept having their posts and accusations drift that direction. We all know that foreknowledge can color play, so I'm inclined to think the Black team has at least one person who keeps referencing that.
Possibly to include Draz, although his play smells like vengeful or village idiot. It's like he wants to get a vigi hit on him.
I really doubt, just from a flavor perspective, that Atlas and P-Body would be on the Black Mesa team. Thematics here. Gordon Freeman isn't a Portal local, the cooperative testing initiative is. It wouldn't make sense for them to be the same team.
It's still possible we have something screwy going on with Keir/SNB, but given that they're at least claimed, I'm comfortable leaving them alive for now, if shit hit the fan, I'd say we could lynch SNB (After all, if they ARE some sort of screwy multi-factional pair, Keir's roleclaim to save SNB feels townie.)
Hiro: Gonzaw's "change of opinion" of me, while possibly scummy in some of his posts, is thoroughly documented, and even I (really WANTING him to flip red, I don't think denying that would get me anywhere) wouldn't be brazen enough to suggest it was just some sudden thing out of nowhere, even if I think some of the posts in the process were scummy.
At this point, knowing we have extra scum, I'd have to say my favorite lynch targets would include Gonzaw (surprise), Hiro, Draz. Hiro's so damned innocuous it's starting to make me wonder.
(By the way, if this post seems weird for me, blame being tired, having just gotten back from sparring night at TKD which is great for letting out aggression, and being well fed.)
Anyways, with the new info, I'm going to have to go back through and look harder.
|
On ghost....that feels right on first glance (the connection between them).
I'm...not sure about this black vs red who has factional stuff. In Aperture 1, it was red vs. sleeper cell black vs. town vs. Drazerk, right? And sleeper cell didn't have factional? But they did have KP roles? Actually, seems like we could learn a lot from looking at the factions and kp from Aperture 1.
If black doesn't have factional KP, then ... ack. I think it DOES mean we leave ghost up in favor of lynching red scum targets. And it means less anti-town KP that drazerk would have been covering for, so lessens the likelihood that he's not just being drazerk.
|
@austin: Would you believe me if I tell you "it's possible"? Of course all roles are embellished with fancy names, descriptions and shit, but some roles can be summed up in brief descriptions. Nisani was medic/watcher for instance, that's simple enough.
One-shot vig may be the simple explanation for his role.
I don't know, if Drazerk won't claim his full role and role name and shit I can't know.....which makes me mad to be honest.
Might be missing some factional KP that was protected.
If it was a shot on a townie the townie would have claimed by now. Hell if it was a shot on a scum he would have claimed by now anyways (to gain the town cred of "getting shot by scum").
If you as scum shoot someone else who doesn't claim he got shot you know he's scum, so scum wouldn't do that either.
Unless Jingle or ghost now claim they were shot (although I find it kind of unlikely) then it seems very unlikely there is a 2nd set of KP.
Again, it has to do with balance issues.
Imagine we started the game at 9-2-2. Imagine there's a mislynch D1 and 2 scum shots go through on townies, it's 6-2-2 on D2. Another misslynch from town and town basically loses (or have to hope the 2 scum teams fight each other).
1 KP from a team and conditional KP from the other seems more likely. Again, take into account Xfire had an additional KP as well. That means there could be 3 town deaths by scum 1 single cycle in a game with 9 townies.
Okay, I'll stop speculating that much and assuming too much. I just don't want to assume the contrary either (that there may be 2 KP per night minimum to both scum) and take decisions based on that (i.e lynch Drazerk because maybe BS have 1 minimum KP per night as well).
Hmm, I remember there being a game with 2 factions that had 1 KP each, it was a PYP or PTP or something. Does someone know how many factions/number of players were there?
Hmm, although again, just like in D2 if I start thinking if Drazerk is town I have to change my other reads to reflect that. It's possible Hiro is scum along with ghost..but meh Hiro being red seems unlikely.
What the fuck maybe you guys are right. I won't vote until ghost arrives or we keep discussing this, but until Drazerk claims his full role and name and all actions (if he hid ones) I might as well support his lynch
It's just that a scum Drazerk makes other things seem weird (like a RS scum having more KP on top of their 1 normal KP.)
|
That's not what I'm saying. gonzaw indicated that unless you made a "good case" on him, he was going to consider you scum.
On October 05 2012 13:49 gonzaw wrote:
Please make points about me being scum that don't have anything to do with you or "starting fights" with you or "insulting" you or discrediting you or "misinterpreting" you.
I won't ask you again.
You made a case, and gonzaw seemed to consider it horrendous. So I was wondering why that made gonzaw think of you as a bad townie, when judging by his previous thoughts, he was going to call you scum if he didn't like the case.
|
|
|
On October 06 2012 10:49 HiroPro wrote:That's not what I'm saying. gonzaw indicated that unless you made a "good case" on him, he was going to consider you scum. Show nested quote +On October 05 2012 13:49 gonzaw wrote:
Please make points about me being scum that don't have anything to do with you or "starting fights" with you or "insulting" you or discrediting you or "misinterpreting" you.
I won't ask you again. You made a case, and gonzaw seemed to consider it horrendous. So I was wondering why that made gonzaw think of you as a bad townie, when judging by his previous thoughts, he was going to call you scum if he didn't like the case.
Ah. Well, he's scum. It happens.
|
On October 06 2012 10:25 austinmcc wrote:
They might not be same faction. But we won't know until/unless we flip BOTH of them. If we lynch snb and he's town, that doesn't tell us what keirathi is. If we flip keirathi and he's town, it doesn't tell us what snb is. Drazerk's whole worry is that they're not same alignment, yet he wants to flip one of them. Flipping one would be great if BOTH are scum. Flipping one is BAD if both are town AND doesn't tell us the alignment of the other. Flipping one is...mixed if one is scum and one is town, because if we flip town we don't know about scum and if we flip scum we probably flip the other guy and he's town? I dunno. That's one thing I'll think on. But the whole "let's flip one GOGOGOGO" routine doesn't feel townie.
I already explained why I think there is a 0.01% chance that we are different factions.
1) Everything in my role PM suggests that we're on the same team. From being buddies, to being test takers (compared to GlaDOS being a test giver), to helping other solve tests, and that we were so in synch that we work together with our actions.
2) In Aperture 1, NONE of the role PMs that mentioned other players were that concrete but ended up being a lie. When the PMs told you who your buddies were, you knew who they were. The flip side of this was, when there was ambiguity in the faction of your parters (House Chezinu), it was specifically stated (something to the effect of "Be careful, the other members of House Chezinu aren't necessarily trustworthy!").
3) We have both claimed our roles (he being a multi-life bodyguard, and me being an anti-roleblock). Those things just fit together so well, that I see very little chance of them being different alignments. Together we are powerful, but working towards different goals would make our combined power of targetting each others targets bad for each others win-con (ie, if he's scum and I'm town, what if I make him bodyguard the person he intends to kill with his factional KP?).
4) If only one of us is scum, why didn't he kill the other of us last night? Lets pretend S&B is a scum ATLAS. I just "confirmed" him as town with my claim, and the medic/watcher was just killed. Would I be protected at night? Probably not. So S&B has a free shot at me, and I flip town, making him look even better.
So, no. I don't really think its possible at all at this point that we are different factions.
|
I think it's unlikely you guys are different factions as well. Just coming to terms with you being probably townie. qq. It'd mean 3/5 or 4/5 of the players I've tunneled most recently were town and I'd love to find a loophole so that number looks better.
gonzaw, I'll play the KP speculation game tomorrow. I want to look back at Aperture 1 especially before doing so.
|
On October 06 2012 10:49 HiroPro wrote:That's not what I'm saying. gonzaw indicated that unless you made a "good case" on him, he was going to consider you scum. Show nested quote +On October 05 2012 13:49 gonzaw wrote:
Please make points about me being scum that don't have anything to do with you or "starting fights" with you or "insulting" you or discrediting you or "misinterpreting" you.
I won't ask you again. You made a case, and gonzaw seemed to consider it horrendous. So I was wondering why that made gonzaw think of you as a bad townie, when judging by his previous thoughts, he was going to call you scum if he didn't like the case.
I'm not that stupid. I knew his case was going to be bad from the get-go (hint: I am town, that makes his case slightly bad from the start). I just wanted to know if he thought I was scum just because of me "being aggressive to him" and "calling him OMGUS" or there was something else to it.
Ehmm...granted as scum he could just go back, and choose whatever he wanted to accuse me. Again, as town he could have gone back, and used confirmation bias to point anything he wanted.
He stopped shitting the thread with that though. But again, like I said I don't really know how to react to that, considering it gave me a gut town feeling.
@Keirathi: ORRRR.... maybe you guys can just read that post I made that has nothing to do with your role PMs.
|
Jingle, Hiro, what do you guys think about ghost and what I wrote about him?
Don't worry Jingle, even if I'm RS ghost can be BS, so you can actually pay attention to what I say.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
