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for as long as we're at jokes
+ Show Spoiler +A journalist interviews a farmer : - You have a very nice field, and a good number of cows, do you get a good production out of it ? - Yes, yes ! mostly from the white cows. - Not from the black ? - Oh yes, from the black too ! - They seem very calm - They are very calm, mostly the white. - The black cows aren't ? - Yes, the black are very calm too ! - Do they make a good milk ? - Yes, mainly the white. - The black don't ? - Oh, yes, they do too. - Sir I don't understand, why do you always refere to this white cows then ? - Well, listen to me. It's because the white cows are mine. - The black aren't ? ------------------------------------------------------------------------- + Show Spoiler +- Yes, they are also mine oops, forgot i wasnt meant to edit, apologies, spoilered the ending
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On August 25 2011 02:35 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 02:28 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On August 25 2011 02:20 Forumite wrote:On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary:
The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror
The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously?
e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess. I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50 what do you suggest happens if we all vote for psych to visit himself? p.s. it's not 50-50 just because there's 2 possibilities. it's like, the odds of anything happening are 50-50 because it either happens or it doesn't.
this raises a question
Can visiting roles choose to do nothing?
If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home
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@Cyber_Cheese
Can visiting roles choose to do nothing?
Naturally.
Also reminding everyone the deadline ends at August 25 2011 23:45 KST which is approximately 17 hours away.
@Erandorr
If no clear majority vote has emerged before end of the day, the deadline will be extended for further 24 hours (if you want no lynch you'll have to majority vote it). Extension can occur only once per day, and twice per game.
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On August 25 2011 06:39 Hesmyrr wrote:@Cyber_Cheese Naturally.Also reminding everyone The deadline ends at August 25 2011 23:45 KST which is approximately 17 hours away.
Waiiit could you clarify how the extension works? I thought we have untill the 26th
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Hesmyrr you should use the [ time ] tags to do time, otherwise we have to do all this math... etc.
Time should be at 14:45 GMT (+00:00)
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On August 25 2011 06:27 Cyber_Cheese wrote:for as long as we're at jokes + Show Spoiler +A journalist interviews a farmer : - You have a very nice field, and a good number of cows, do you get a good production out of it ? - Yes, yes ! mostly from the white cows. - Not from the black ? - Oh yes, from the black too ! - They seem very calm - They are very calm, mostly the white. - The black cows aren't ? - Yes, the black are very calm too ! - Do they make a good milk ? - Yes, mainly the white. - The black don't ? - Oh, yes, they do too. - Sir I don't understand, why do you always refere to this white cows then ? - Well, listen to me. It's because the white cows are mine. - The black aren't ? ------------------------------------------------------------------------- + Show Spoiler +- Yes, they are also mine oops, forgot i wasnt meant to edit, apologies, spoilered the ending
## Vote Cyber_Cheese
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I probably should explain : Notice how bad Cyber has been playing before, note then that he didnt answer any of my accusations and found the one point in my post that could be used as a deversion.
Either he is really , really shitty town or badly playing SCUM/ EA
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On August 25 2011 06:33 Cyber_Cheese wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 02:35 JeeJee wrote:On August 25 2011 02:28 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On August 25 2011 02:20 Forumite wrote:On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary:
The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror
The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously?
e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess. I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50 what do you suggest happens if we all vote for psych to visit himself? p.s. it's not 50-50 just because there's 2 possibilities. it's like, the odds of anything happening are 50-50 because it either happens or it doesn't. this raises a question Can visiting roles choose to do nothing?If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home
this raises a better question
why do you keep bringing up this idea of coordinating a psych decision?
*everyone votes for psych to visit A*
*psych has committed suicide*
"Ah, A must be EA!"
*Lynch A*
*A is not EA because EA visited psych and not vice versa*
Now what?
you're here quite often, you make a lot of posts. but all i'm seeing is that you want to kill someone, and you don't care who as long as it's not yourself. i'm seeing useless lists and pushing flawed plans. i'm seeing nonsense.
##vote:cyber cheese
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On August 25 2011 06:54 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 06:33 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On August 25 2011 02:35 JeeJee wrote:On August 25 2011 02:28 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On August 25 2011 02:20 Forumite wrote:On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary:
The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror
The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously?
e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess. I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50 what do you suggest happens if we all vote for psych to visit himself? p.s. it's not 50-50 just because there's 2 possibilities. it's like, the odds of anything happening are 50-50 because it either happens or it doesn't. this raises a question Can visiting roles choose to do nothing?If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home this raises a better question why do you keep bringing up this idea of coordinating a psych decision? *everyone votes for psych to visit A* *psych has committed suicide* "Ah, A must be EA!" *Lynch A* *A is not EA because EA visited psych and not vice versa* Now what? you're here quite often, you make a lot of posts. but all i'm seeing is that you want to kill someone, and you don't care who as long as it's not yourself. i'm seeing useless lists and pushing flawed plans. i'm seeing nonsense. ##vote:cyber cheese
So, do you think its more likely Cyber_Cheese is scum than Wiggles the EH?
Remember we are here to kill scum, not stupid townies, no matter how stupid the townie may be.
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Ferryman would you be open to lynching cyber today then wiggles?
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On August 25 2011 07:33 Navillus wrote:
Ferryman would you be open to lynching cyber today then wiggles?
No, because I'm pretty sure wiggles is the EH, and if we lynch the EH we get a free day. I also have yet to see people build a real case that proves he is mafia, so far all I have seen is "he has played stupid", witch brings us back to the rule of thumb.
If you are going to lynch cyber I want someone who is going to take responsibility for the lynch, rather than have a bunch of people push a green lynch and then say "he was stupid anyway, its his fault" and no-one ends up being responsible.
You want him lynched Navillus? Are you willing to own up to it if he flips green? Why is the case against him more convincing than the case against wiggles?
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On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote:
Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH
Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH
I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game
As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum?
There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch:
1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable
2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town
3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one
4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day
5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below
On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects.
Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum.
Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches
1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected
2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect
3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight
4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies
5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?)
5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that.
The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary)
1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped
2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it
3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night
4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad
5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check)
Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others
Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight?
There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress)
There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both
if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum
note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych
This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.
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On August 25 2011 06:51 Erandorr wrote:
I probably should explain : Notice how bad Cyber has been playing before, note then that he didnt answer any of my accusations and found the one point in my post that could be used as a deversion.
Either he is really , really shitty town or badly playing SCUM/ EA
I believe town is best off lynching somebody, as I've stated before, if my pushing to lynch somebody makes me that somebody, so be it I had it coming.
On August 25 2011 06:54 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 06:33 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On August 25 2011 02:35 JeeJee wrote:On August 25 2011 02:28 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On August 25 2011 02:20 Forumite wrote:On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary:
The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror
The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously?
e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess. I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50 what do you suggest happens if we all vote for psych to visit himself? p.s. it's not 50-50 just because there's 2 possibilities. it's like, the odds of anything happening are 50-50 because it either happens or it doesn't. this raises a question Can visiting roles choose to do nothing?If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home this raises a better question why do you keep bringing up this idea of coordinating a psych decision? *everyone votes for psych to visit A* *psych has committed suicide* "Ah, A must be EA!" *Lynch A* *A is not EA because EA visited psych and not vice versa* Now what? you're here quite often, you make a lot of posts. but all i'm seeing is that you want to kill someone, and you don't care who as long as it's not yourself. i'm seeing useless lists and pushing flawed plans. i'm seeing nonsense. ##vote:cyber cheese
As opposed to what? psyche dying and us having no clue as to who?
for someone opposed to random lynching, the 50/50 on the person being EH this presents should look more appealing than 4/11 (assuming both mafia got a kill and psych died to EH overnight, maybe even 4/10 if we lynch today and it's town)
granted there are more variables to consider than just those there, but I'm telling you that 50/50 is potentially the best it is going to get.
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On August 25 2011 07:41 TheFerryman wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 07:33 Navillus wrote:
Ferryman would you be open to lynching cyber today then wiggles? No, because I'm pretty sure wiggles is the EH, and if we lynch the EH we get a free day. I also have yet to see people build a real case that proves he is mafia, so far all I have seen is "he has played stupid", witch brings us back to the rule of thumb. If you are going to lynch cyber I want someone who is going to take responsibility for the lynch, rather than have a bunch of people push a green lynch and then say "he was stupid anyway, its his fault" and no-one ends up being responsible. You want him lynched Navillus? Are you willing to own up to it if he flips green? Why is the case against him more convincing than the case against wiggles?
Tnkted was the first to vote against me, given that he's been considered suspicious already I would definitely hold him to blame in that scenario
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On August 25 2011 07:43 Cyber_Cheese wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote:
Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum. Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?) 5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that. The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check) Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.
Funny, I thought you said you thought I was the EH. What changed your mind?
Also all those numbers are irrelevant, we know we have to lynch, and no one is going to allow a no-lynch to happen. That does *not* mean jumping on every possible vote that happens. You are the current voteleader, should we all vote for you as to not risk the possibility of a no lynch? Or should we look for the EH or scum and make our lynch count? Remember if we lynch a townie we bring the mafia a step closer to victory.
Think before posting, lynching correctly is vital, and jumping on every bandwagon isn't going to achieve that. We could all pull a number out of a hat to pick who we lynch, how would that help bring us closer to victory? Of course not, it would provide no information, its the same deal with easy bandwagons, mafia can easaly blend in with arguments like the one you are making "oh, I didn't think he was mafia, but hey, I did it to avoid a no-lynch"
Your justification is poor to say the least, step up your game. What made you change your mind about me being the EH? If you really think I am it is your duty to write an analysis that proves it and sell it to the rest of the town.
You don't want to lynch anyone, just for the sake of lynching, you want to lynch scum. Otherwise you aren't town.
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On August 25 2011 04:05 Palmar wrote:
I'll be voting for Mr. Wiggles.
Ferryman posted a good analysis on the original indecisiveness of Wiggles's original post, but what finally convinced me was the fact Wiggles tried to draw up a case from another game where he was wrongly accused as town.
##Vote Mr. Wiggles
I posted that, because to me, his accusations feel very similar to the ones I faced all game long in Arkham Asylum.
He thinks I'm trying to downplay the danger of the horror, so that must make me the horror. (When I'm only pointing out that he's not the biggest threat to town on day 1) People did the same thing in AA, saying that by me saying that Batman will attempt to act pro-town, I was trying to make him appear as a pro-town role, and so I myself must be Batman.
He says that I'm opening with a general post talking about the set-up instead of scum hunting, when we are only several hours into the day, with very little to talk about, so a post like that is justified if it is the first one, in order to begin discussion. In AA, I was accused of being scum because I opened with such a post, and for "a lack of scum hunting", only 7 or so hours into the day.
He also says that I'm focusing too much on the horror and the psychologist, when in AA I was accused of focusing too much on the third parties, and so that must make me one myself.
It's easy to see the parallels, and part of my reaction is exasperation, because it feels to me as though it's going to be a repeat of AA, where I'm going to have to fight off accusations of being a third party the entire game, and where my credibility will be shot, because of those same accusations.
Since when is it a sure sign of scum to express trepidation? I'm normally very unsure and indecisive, both in mafia, and as a person. The difference in AA, is that I had a gun with infinite ammo, so if someone was scummy enough, I could just shoot them dead. Even as town, you'll play differently between being different roles, like VT, medic, vig, vet, mason, etc. There's different priorities and mindsets with each, that will influence how you post and play.
Also, no one has answered what advantage I would gain from even making my first post, if I was the EA. I started to write what I thought was a decent plan, then realized at the end that it was bad. However, instead of just deleting it and lurking, I decided to offer it up for discussion, to start people talking instead of being useless, and to fish for reactions.
I never said it was good, and never said it should be implemented. I also don't see how it's even possible to backtrack in one post. I made an objective plan, decided it was bad, but wanted to see how others reacted. The horror would try to argue with me, in order to see it implemented in some way, as it is beneficial for him. Scum are going to try to attack it, but also try to attack me, in order to appear to be contributing, and to lower my credibility while strengthening their own. It's scummy because I never actually proposed the plan be put into action, but by suggesting so, scum would have been able to make me look scummy and attack my credibility, furthering their objectives.
As well, something I think needs to actually be discussed and addressed in this game, is lurkers. What do people think should be done about them? Normally, we can just threaten to have a vig clear them out, but since in this game there are no vigs (besides Insane Medic, after a fashion), we're going to have to find a new way to promote discussion. Threatening lynch is one way to do it, but as this is a mini, spending lynches on hard to analyze lurkers might not be the best way to go, as it lets scum bandwagon and influence in such a way that we will likely only kill townies. We have several players with very few, short, posts, so I think we should address it before it becomes too much of a problem. What do others think?
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On August 25 2011 07:43 Cyber_Cheese wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote:
Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum. Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?) 5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that. The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check) Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.
tldr: lynching is good.
this is a pretty long and useless post indeed.
i'm not a fan of discussing plans or mechanics unless other people are jumping on a terrible idea. so cut it out and let's get back to discussing people.
why exactly do you think wiggles is EA? you haven't answered my earlier question about it.. "based on the arguments posted earlier" isn't an explanation.
and yes ferryman, I'd gladly take responsibility for cyber's lynch, which would include praise when he flips scum I assume.
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My apologies for my absence. It was a brutal day at work today. The fuckers broke everything.
I have only read this page and will get caught up shortly but I do have a question for the Ferryman.
You state rightly so that we are here to lynch scum. Yet you are obsessed with the EH. Why? I understand he's 3rd party. I understand he's anti town. I also understand that he won't kill anybody barring a chance encounter with the psych. Scum are most certainly going to begin killing us. Fuck the EH for now. We have bigger fish to fry.
Of course I might be all wrong as I have just read this page atm and if so I'll be more than happy to stfu after I get caught up. I'll post my thoughts in a bit. I also have to catch up on XLIX.
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On August 25 2011 07:52 TheFerryman wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 07:43 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote:
Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum. Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?) 5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that. The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check) Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard. Funny, I thought you said you thought I was the EH. What changed your mind? Also all those numbers are irrelevant, we know we have to lynch, and no one is going to allow a no-lynch to happen. That does *not* mean jumping on every possible vote that happens. You are the current voteleader, should we all vote for you as to not risk the possibility of a no lynch? Or should we look for the EH or scum and make our lynch count? Remember if we lynch a townie we bring the mafia a step closer to victory. Think before posting, lynching correctly is vital, and jumping on every bandwagon isn't going to achieve that. We could all pull a number out of a hat to pick who we lynch, how would that help bring us closer to victory? Of course not, it would provide no information, its the same deal with easy bandwagons, mafia can easaly blend in with arguments like the one you are making "oh, I didn't think he was mafia, but hey, I did it to avoid a no-lynch" Your justification is poor to say the least, step up your game. What made you change your mind about me being the EH? If you really think I am it is your duty to write an analysis that proves it and sell it to the rest of the town. You don't want to lynch anyone, just for the sake of lynching, you want to lynch scum. Otherwise you aren't town.
At the moment, the current evidence points to wiggles as the EH. Rest assured that if/when it's wrong I'll be making a full post on why your the real EH.
Until the first lynch or two, we have no clear-cut way of determining who the mafia is, after that point we can see who defended the innocent/guilty person and analyse from there
I'm not quite sure at what point you convinced yourself that the band wagoning I was doing wasn't directed at people I believed to be scum
It would be in the eldritchs best interests to discredit the people who accuse him wouldn't it?
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On August 25 2011 08:09 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 07:43 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote:
Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum. Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?) 5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that. The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check) Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard. tldr: lynching is good. this is a pretty long and useless post indeed. i'm not a fan of discussing plans or mechanics unless other people are jumping on a terrible idea. so cut it out and let's get back to discussing people. why exactly do you think wiggles is EA? you haven't answered my earlier question about it.. "based on the arguments posted earlier" isn't an explanation. and yes ferryman, I'd gladly take responsibility for cyber's lynch, which would include praise when he flips scum I assume.
Notice how ferryman made someone else take responsibility?
It's the one same thing he's been accusing MrWiggles of no less
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EPT
