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Cosmic Horror Mafia - Page 11

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
August 24 2011 23:17 GMT
#201
One of the same things*
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
August 24 2011 23:20 GMT
#202
##Unvote

By way overwhelming amounts of accusations I'm going to cut back on the voting
I still say it's ferryman and I'll gladly be responsible for it if he's town, but I'll cast that vote later after anyone chooses to agree with me
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
TheFerryman
Profile Joined August 2011
United States39 Posts
August 24 2011 23:23 GMT
#203
/applause
Way to go wiggles, you have a silver tongue. This post however is entirely mistaken in its representation of the situation.

Allow me to explain, scum hunting is like building a puzzle, you take all the pieces and assemble them into a single unified mindset that is behind the poster, you cannot take a single pieces and from it discern what it is you are up against, rather it is the net sum of the different pieces that allows you to see the whole picture.

What you are doing in this post is deconstructing the arguments by looking at the pieces, rather than taking the unity of the set. You see its not one of the pieces alone that damns you, but the whole matrix of them.

Now to deconstruct your post, my commentary in spoilers, as usual.

On August 25 2011 07:53 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2011 04:05 Palmar wrote:
I'll be voting for Mr. Wiggles.

Ferryman posted a good analysis on the original indecisiveness of Wiggles's original post, but what finally convinced me was the fact Wiggles tried to draw up a case from another game where he was wrongly accused as town.

##Vote Mr. Wiggles


I posted that, because to me, his accusations feel very similar to the ones I faced all game long in Arkham Asylum.

He thinks I'm trying to downplay the danger of the horror, so that must make me the horror. (When I'm only pointing out that he's not the biggest threat to town on day 1) People did the same thing in AA, saying that by me saying that Batman will attempt to act pro-town, I was trying to make him appear as a pro-town role, and so I myself must be Batman.
+ Show Spoiler +
This is a mistaken parallelism, because acting pro-town is never a giveaway, trying to seem pro-town without actually being pro-town is. This parallel is wrong because what these people did was take an extrapolation of your behavior (being pro-town) and used that, on its own, to try to prove a case, when in reality the rest of the pieces did not fit. What happened here is I pointed out a single piece of behavior that is suggestive, but not by itself conclusive, but that when taken in combination with other points, proves you to be the EH


He says that I'm opening with a general post talking about the set-up instead of scum hunting, when we are only several hours into the day, with very little to talk about, so a post like that is justified if it is the first one, in order to begin discussion. In AA, I was accused of being scum because I opened with such a post, and for "a lack of scum hunting", only 7 or so hours into the day.
+ Show Spoiler +
Once again a *complete* misrepresentation, I said that its fine to spark discussion, but that the *way* you did it was not the way a town aligned player would have done it. There are two ways you could have done it, you could have begun with a plan as crappy as the one you mentioned, but not backtracked on it in which case it would have been a scum trap and an actual point of discussion, or you could have talked about the setup and lurkers without proposing a terrible EH favored plan, that allows scum to blend in by bashing it. You've been in enough games to know that that is a terrible, terrible idea. As scum in PTP I think it was, did you not enjoy making the town spend time shooting down terrible plans?


He also says that I'm focusing too much on the horror and the psychologist, when in AA I was accused of focusing too much on the third parties, and so that must make me one myself.

+ Show Spoiler +
I use it as a piece, again, not as a single argument, that focus by itself is not what gives you away.


It's easy to see the parallels, and part of my reaction is exasperation, because it feels to me as though it's going to be a repeat of AA, where I'm going to have to fight off accusations of being a third party the entire game, and where my credibility will be shot, because of those same accusations.

+ Show Spoiler +
Appeal to Emotion. Pity me, I'm so exasperated that people are calling me third party. You shouldn't have to stoop to this wiggles. If you are truly town, then please, analyze and help me find scum, surely in 10 pages there is enough information to get some headway


Since when is it a sure sign of scum to express trepidation? I'm normally very unsure and indecisive, both in mafia, and as a person. The difference in AA, is that I had a gun with infinite ammo, so if someone was scummy enough, I could just shoot them dead. Even as town, you'll play differently between being different roles, like VT, medic, vig, vet, mason, etc. There's different priorities and mindsets with each, that will influence how you post and play.

+ Show Spoiler +
Its a deeper thing. When you are town you feel fearless, you don't leave room for doubt in your posts. You own up to your ideas, even if they aren't the best. You take ownership. That whole post proposes a plan in a rather decisive way and then concludes no, it sucks, which as I have discussed is bad play. And you know it is, which means there is no reason you would do it, as town. You are correct about the different mindsets, and town wiggles is the most fearless of mindsets, from my reading, since you have nothing to lose.


Also, no one has answered what advantage I would gain from even making my first post, if I was the EA. I started to write what I thought was a decent plan, then realized at the end that it was bad. However, instead of just deleting it and lurking, I decided to offer it up for discussion, to start people talking instead of being useless, and to fish for reactions.

+ Show Spoiler +
I've already stated how you went about this entirely the wrong way.


I never said it was good, and never said it should be implemented. I also don't see how it's even possible to backtrack in one post. I made an objective plan, decided it was bad, but wanted to see how others reacted. The horror would try to argue with me, in order to see it implemented in some way, as it is beneficial for him. Scum are going to try to attack it, but also try to attack me, in order to appear to be contributing, and to lower my credibility while strengthening their own. It's scummy because I never actually proposed the plan be put into action, but by suggesting so, scum would have been able to make me look scummy and attack my credibility, furthering their objectives.

+ Show Spoiler +
I've already stated how you went about this entirely the wrong way. By stating that you knew it was bad, no one was going to attack you, only bash the plan, and detail why its terrible, which *anyone* scum or town can do.


As well, something I think needs to actually be discussed and addressed in this game, is lurkers. What do people think should be done about them? Normally, we can just threaten to have a vig clear them out, but since in this game there are no vigs (besides Insane Medic, after a fashion), we're going to have to find a new way to promote discussion. Threatening lynch is one way to do it, but as this is a mini, spending lynches on hard to analyze lurkers might not be the best way to go, as it lets scum bandwagon and influence in such a way that we will likely only kill townies. We have several players with very few, short, posts, so I think we should address it before it becomes too much of a problem. What do others think?

+ Show Spoiler +
I'm all for lynching lurkers, if I don't have a better target, like say the EH, which is facing me right now. Either way, I'm done arguing with you, please don't misrepresent my arguments again, so I wont have to write walls of text.


On August 25 2011 08:16 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2011 08:09 JeeJee wrote:
On August 25 2011 07:43 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote:
Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.


For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH
Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH
I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game
As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum?
There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch:
1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable
2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town
3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one
4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day
5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below

On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects.
Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum.

Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches
1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected
2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect
3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight
4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies
5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?)

5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that.

The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary)
1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped
2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it
3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night
4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad
5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check)

Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others
Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight?
There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress)
There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both
if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum
note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych

This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.


tldr: lynching is good.
this is a pretty long and useless post indeed.
i'm not a fan of discussing plans or mechanics unless other people are jumping on a terrible idea. so cut it out and let's get back to discussing people.

why exactly do you think wiggles is EA? you haven't answered my earlier question about it.. "based on the arguments posted earlier" isn't an explanation.

and yes ferryman, I'd gladly take responsibility for cyber's lynch, which would include praise when he flips scum I assume.


Notice how ferryman made someone else take responsibility?
It's the one same thing he's been accusing MrWiggles of no less

/facepalm. I'm not the one pushing to get you lynched, I'm not even voting for you, how is it *my* responsibility?
"Don't pay the ferryman, until he gets you to the other side"
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
August 24 2011 23:25 GMT
#204
On August 25 2011 08:12 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2011 07:52 TheFerryman wrote:
On August 25 2011 07:43 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote:
Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.


For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH
Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH
I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game
As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum?
There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch:
1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable
2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town
3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one
4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day
5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below

On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects.
Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum.

Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches
1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected
2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect
3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight
4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies
5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?)

5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that.

The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary)
1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped
2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it
3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night
4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad
5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check)

Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others
Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight?
There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress)
There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both
if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum
note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych

This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.


Funny, I thought you said you thought I was the EH. What changed your mind?

Also all those numbers are irrelevant, we know we have to lynch, and no one is going to allow a no-lynch to happen. That does *not* mean jumping on every possible vote that happens. You are the current voteleader, should we all vote for you as to not risk the possibility of a no lynch? Or should we look for the EH or scum and make our lynch count? Remember if we lynch a townie we bring the mafia a step closer to victory.

Think before posting, lynching correctly is vital, and jumping on every bandwagon isn't going to achieve that. We could all pull a number out of a hat to pick who we lynch, how would that help bring us closer to victory? Of course not, it would provide no information, its the same deal with easy bandwagons, mafia can easaly blend in with arguments like the one you are making "oh, I didn't think he was mafia, but hey, I did it to avoid a no-lynch"

Your justification is poor to say the least, step up your game. What made you change your mind about me being the EH? If you really think I am it is your duty to write an analysis that proves it and sell it to the rest of the town.

You don't want to lynch anyone, just for the sake of lynching, you want to lynch scum. Otherwise you aren't town.


At the moment, the current evidence points to wiggles as the EH. Rest assured that if/when it's wrong I'll be making a full post on why your the real EH.
Until the first lynch or two, we have no clear-cut way of determining who the mafia is, after that point we can see who defended the innocent/guilty person and analyse from there
I'm not quite sure at what point you convinced yourself that the band wagoning I was doing wasn't directed at people I believed to be scum
It would be in the eldritchs best interests to discredit the people who accuse him wouldn't it?

What evidence? That I have slightly less posts than him? (Which says nothing when you don't consider quality or length).

Also, as a word of advice, the way to find out who the mafia are, is through analysis and discussion. This is why we don't random lynch, and why it's possible to find scum as early as day 1. And, I'm going to cut you off at the pass here, but looking only at who defends or attacks scum isn't a great way to find more scum. Townies can have wrong reads, and scum will and do bus their own team mates. You have to look at more than that.

On August 24 2011 01:49 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Vote: Navillus
On August 24 2011 01:52 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: Palmar
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: TheFerryman
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: Tnkted
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles

Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why?
you gotta dance
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
August 24 2011 23:42 GMT
#205
Ok, Ferryman, what do you think of Eiii?

On August 24 2011 07:23 Eiii wrote:
...and right away wiggles and palmar make themselves the topics of the day.

Show nested quote +
On August 24 2011 01:12 Palmar wrote:
Right.

This is not what happened. My win condition is to eliminate all threats to town. I did not slip, you're trying to manufacture evidence out of something that doesn't exist. My joke can't even be shrugged off as bad town play because nothing exists in it that would indicate I'm not town.
This post sets off a lot of alarm bells for me. So many that I'm just gonna go ahead and ##vote Palmar

Wiggle's plan is awful and super-pro EA, yeah, but the more interesting part of his posts to me is how much he's pushing that everyone should breadcrumb. This is my third try on typing up something about breadcrumbs, and I'm not at all sure what to think about them anymore. They can be really useful in piecing everything together lategame, yeah, but I'm really worried about how they can be used to manipulate town. Breadcrumbing pro-town stuff all game long and then revealing it all when it's LYLO or something is a really good plan for smart scum. So our only option would be to look back at people's crumbs after they die, which again leaves town open to manipulation if scum can make some really good connections that aren't there.
So basically, the only way we should trust any sort of breadcrumbing scheme if if the person who made the crumbs claims them and then flips town. And, if that's the case... why do we even need breadcrumbs? I understand that, especially in a game like this where the blues' actions are so critical, it's really appealing to try to set up a system where everyone can deduce what happened, but looking at the setup, I don't think it's a good idea in this game.

alright I hope that made sense. One more thing: What happens if an insane doctor visits EA?
On August 24 2011 08:08 Eiii wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 24 2011 07:35 Palmar wrote:
Care to explain what alarms it sets off? You seem to be perfectly fine with throwing down a vote based on nothing but "setting off alarms".


You made a post containing something that could be taken as scummy, tnk pointed it out, you go 'derp' and tell him to stop looking for things that aren't there. So far so good.

Then, once tnk pushes you a bit, you get really defensive. That post I quoted just doesn't feel like a post that a comfortable player makes.

He has a grand total of two posts this game.

In the first one, he doesn't do a good job explaining why he thinks Palmar is scummy, and then votes for him. He then spends a great deal of time talking about breadcrumbs. However, the way he goes about it, lets him say almost nothing in a large amount of text. Basically, he goes "This is good sometimes, but other times it isn't", before coming to the conclusion he doesn't think it's a great idea, which doesn't really follow from what he was saying, and is based on "looking at the set-up", which he doesn't bother to explain. So, he has a nice wall of text, that essentially says nothing, before he comes to a conclusion based on premises not even mentioned in his post.

His second post, he just says "You reacted weird", but he never goes further than that, or tries to add more pressure to Palmar. As well, he spends no time trying to convince others that Palmar is scummy, and completely leaves the thread.

This is also disconcerting, because he had time to post on TL today, but has not chimed in on any of the discussion that has been happening in the last 24 hours. I think he's a good candidate for a scummy lurker, and would like to see what he's thinking right now.

Also, besides me, who do you believe to be scummy, Ferryman?
you gotta dance
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
August 24 2011 23:42 GMT
#206
On August 25 2011 08:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 24 2011 01:49 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Vote: Navillus
Show nested quote +
On August 24 2011 01:52 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: Palmar
Show nested quote +
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: TheFerryman
Show nested quote +
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: Tnkted
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles

Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why?


At the moment, my views hinge on two important people
1) If MrWiggles turns out not to be the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be the eldritch himself. On the off-chance Wiggles isn't the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be town, based off various arguments that Ferryman has made against wiggles.
2) If Tnkted is mafia, I believe Navillus to also be mafia because Tnkted chose to ignore what Navillus said at the start of day 1 about being a townie, before looking a few posts further and voting Palmar based off his joke, this would also make Palmar innocent in my eyes. Again, this is perfectly inversed.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
August 24 2011 23:46 GMT
#207
If anybody ever accuses me of tunneling again I'm going to bitch slap them.
Ferryman we get it. You think Wiggles is the EH. You may very well be right. Guess what? Right now I don't care about the EH. But you sure as hell do. You are either the psych or scum. I know you have a very good grasp on how this game works. You are also on the opposite end of the brilliance spectrum from
Cyber_cheese. Put your efforts into something other than tunneling your EH suspect. Please.
I'm filtering all of you from most to least interesting so I'm going to be a while.
Life can only kill you once.
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
August 24 2011 23:47 GMT
#208
Is there a mistake in the paragraph where you talk about me?

You just said that if I'm not the EA, then Ferryman is both the EA and town.
you gotta dance
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
August 24 2011 23:48 GMT
#209
On August 25 2011 08:42 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2011 08:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
On August 24 2011 01:49 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Vote: Navillus
On August 24 2011 01:52 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: Palmar
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: TheFerryman
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: Tnkted
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles

Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why?


At the moment, my views hinge on two important people
1) If MrWiggles turns out not to be the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be the eldritch himself. On the off-chance Wiggles isn't the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be town, based off various arguments that Ferryman has made against wiggles.
2) If Tnkted is mafia, I believe Navillus to also be mafia because Tnkted chose to ignore what Navillus said at the start of day 1 about being a townie, before looking a few posts further and voting Palmar based off his joke, this would also make Palmar innocent in my eyes. Again, this is perfectly inversed.

You wanna redo that one champ.
Life can only kill you once.
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
August 24 2011 23:48 GMT
#210
^Talking to cyber
you gotta dance
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
August 24 2011 23:48 GMT
#211
While your looking into people that havn't said much:
Is it just me, or does Chaos keep talking about going into more detail while never actually doing so?

On August 24 2011 12:37 chaos13 wrote:
I haven't got time to devote to proper posting tonight. I've skimmed through everything so far, and I'm glad to see that the spam has cut down and we've got good discussion going.
My initial thoughts:
1. Palmar probably isn't scum. The case against him is claiming that a joke response was a scum slip.
2. People pushing for lynching Palmar based on the above are dumb or scum. If they've got a good reason (haven't seen any so far) then it's not suspicious.
3. tnkted is probably scum
4. Ferryman, you've got a great case on wiggles, but with one problem. You designed that case to prove that he's the EA. What you should be doing is analyzing and then figuring out what he is. Because it was the cause and not the effect, I'm not yet convinced by it.

I'll get something more detailed up tomorrow morning.

On August 24 2011 20:50 chaos13 wrote:
Erandorr, since you're around right now, what do you think of tnkted?
Was his accusation of Palmar warranted, and does the logic behind it make sense to you?

On August 24 2011 20:57 chaos13 wrote:
It's a 48 hour day cycle, isn't it? That's what the OP states.



On August 24 2011 20:59 chaos13 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 23 2011 23:45 Hesmyrr wrote:

The deadline ends at August 25 2011 23:45 KST


And this. We've got another day still.

On August 24 2011 21:27 chaos13 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 24 2011 21:19 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
I find it strange that Tnkted found more reason to vote for Palmar than Navillus, and in fact let Navillus' whole first post slide.
Am I alone here?


Not at all. However, I'm not always the best scumhunter, so I'd like to call on the analysis skills of Jackal58. Jackal, what do you think of tnkted's play so far in this game?

I'm also going to vote tnkted, since I can always change it later if need be.

##Vote: tnkted

The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
August 24 2011 23:49 GMT
#212
On August 25 2011 08:48 Jackal58 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2011 08:42 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
On August 25 2011 08:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
On August 24 2011 01:49 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Vote: Navillus
On August 24 2011 01:52 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: Palmar
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: TheFerryman
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: Tnkted
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles

Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why?


At the moment, my views hinge on two important people
1) If MrWiggles turns out not to be the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be the eldritch himself. On the off-chance Wiggles isn't the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be town, based off various arguments that Ferryman has made against wiggles.
2) If Tnkted is mafia, I believe Navillus to also be mafia because Tnkted chose to ignore what Navillus said at the start of day 1 about being a townie, before looking a few posts further and voting Palmar based off his joke, this would also make Palmar innocent in my eyes. Again, this is perfectly inversed.

You wanna redo that one champ.


Oh my mistake, it was supposed to signify one or the other.
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
TheFerryman
Profile Joined August 2011
United States39 Posts
August 24 2011 23:56 GMT
#213
On August 25 2011 08:46 Jackal58 wrote:
If anybody ever accuses me of tunneling again I'm going to bitch slap them.
Ferryman we get it. You think Wiggles is the EH. You may very well be right. Guess what? Right now I don't care about the EH. But you sure as hell do. You are either the psych or scum. I know you have a very good grasp on how this game works. You are also on the opposite end of the brilliance spectrum from
Cyber_cheese. Put your efforts into something other than tunneling your EH suspect. Please.
I'm filtering all of you from most to least interesting so I'm going to be a while.

Lynching the EH gives us a free day, which is why I want him dead. It also removes a major threat. But fair enough, I'll lay off wiggles, I've made my case abundantly clear by now.

On August 25 2011 08:42 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2011 08:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
On August 24 2011 01:49 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Vote: Navillus
On August 24 2011 01:52 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: Palmar
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: TheFerryman
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: Tnkted
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles

Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why?


At the moment, my views hinge on two important people
1) If MrWiggles turns out not to be the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be the eldritch himself. On the off-chance Wiggles isn't the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be town, based off various arguments that Ferryman has made against wiggles.
2) If Tnkted is mafia, I believe Navillus to also be mafia because Tnkted chose to ignore what Navillus said at the start of day 1 about being a townie, before looking a few posts further and voting Palmar based off his joke, this would also make Palmar innocent in my eyes. Again, this is perfectly inversed.


Your logic is simplistic, you are aware townies can be wrong, are you not? And as town we have to defend those we think to be town, sometimes that means we end up lynching town and townies sometimes end up defending scum. You are making ties which are simply incorrect.

@Wiggles, you ask me for scum-reads, well, so far you are the only one that sticks out to me, I'm suspicious of JeeJee, but I haven't yet caught up with his meta (reading through games takes a while), however I certainly have my eye on him. Most other people have not posted enough or posts that have enough content at least that I can have a strong read on them. I agree that Eiii lurking is bad, but its certainly not out of character, look at sleeper cell mafia where he has a grand total of about 4 posts day 1. I'd actually be ok with lynching him, to establish a precedent of killing lurkers and to promote a more discussion favored atmosphere, but only if we can't get 7 people to vote for you.

Anyway, I'm off for quite a while now, so I'll answer questions when I get back.
"Don't pay the ferryman, until he gets you to the other side"
Navillus
Profile Joined February 2011
United States1188 Posts
August 25 2011 00:01 GMT
#214
I am going to focus on scumhunting because only a very bad EH would make it obvious enough who they are that we could correctly lynch them day 1. So first I would like to quickly draw attention to
On August 25 2011 07:41 TheFerryman wrote:If you are going to lynch cyber I want someone who is going to take responsibility for the lynch, rather than have a bunch of people push a green lynch and then say "he was stupid anyway, its his fault" and no-one ends up being responsible.

You want him lynched Navillus? Are you willing to own up to it if he flips green? Why is the case against him more convincing than the case against wiggles?

Now this is a standard scum play, let town accuse someone then set it up for the accuser to get lynched if the accused flips town this is illogical the full argument that you would need to accept to make this make sense includes it being impossible for a townie to mislynch, or to be wrong, I think we can all agree that this is not the case and this argument simply leads to what are essentially revenge lynches.

That said I think there are scummier people this game, namely Cyber_Cheese, it could be argued that he isn't scum just playing badly, I happen to think both are true, he's just supported too scummy things for me to let him go. He likes random lynching, is saying he's fine taking the lynch, (if he were actually fine with it that might be a town thing but in what I've read people saying that tend to be scum) he's jumped all over the place with his voting with very little reasoning, and overall I'm getting the sense from him that he's trying really hard to stay active, but is just throwing things out there without actually thinking about anything (see his random voting, the giant listing of fractions, and his joke) and in general this attempt to stay really active gives me a really guilty feel from him SO

##Vote Cyber_Cheese
"TL gives excellent advice 99% of the time. The problem is no one listens to it." -Plexa
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
August 25 2011 00:02 GMT
#215
On August 24 2011 04:22 tnkted wrote:
If anyone else has a stronger read that can convince me I would lynch them instead, but for d1 lynch palmar is my vote.

Your immediate jump on Palmar is scummy. I understood that what he made was a joke. He was directly poking at me.

On August 24 2011 03:15 tnkted wrote:
Wait a minute.

how does insanity effect mafia? Do their kills fail or something?

Nice effort.


On August 24 2011 05:29 tnkted wrote:
I don't think he's acted any scummier than Palmar, but Palmar has a better excuse to lynch. Navillus said the sort of thing I said all the time when I was a newbie. Palmar said something that could either be a joke or a slip and I'm rating the chances of either at 50-50.

This is so freaking scummy I had to go brush my teeth.

Pick it up Twinkles. I'm really not liking what I'm seeing.

Life can only kill you once.
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
August 25 2011 00:09 GMT
#216
On August 25 2011 09:01 Navillus wrote:
I am going to focus on scumhunting because only a very bad EH would make it obvious enough who they are that we could correctly lynch them day 1. So first I would like to quickly draw attention to
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2011 07:41 TheFerryman wrote:If you are going to lynch cyber I want someone who is going to take responsibility for the lynch, rather than have a bunch of people push a green lynch and then say "he was stupid anyway, its his fault" and no-one ends up being responsible.

You want him lynched Navillus? Are you willing to own up to it if he flips green? Why is the case against him more convincing than the case against wiggles?

Now this is a standard scum play, let town accuse someone then set it up for the accuser to get lynched if the accused flips town this is illogical the full argument that you would need to accept to make this make sense includes it being impossible for a townie to mislynch, or to be wrong, I think we can all agree that this is not the case and this argument simply leads to what are essentially revenge lynches.

That said I think there are scummier people this game, namely Cyber_Cheese, it could be argued that he isn't scum just playing badly, I happen to think both are true, he's just supported too scummy things for me to let him go. He likes random lynching, is saying he's fine taking the lynch, (if he were actually fine with it that might be a town thing but in what I've read people saying that tend to be scum) he's jumped all over the place with his voting with very little reasoning, and overall I'm getting the sense from him that he's trying really hard to stay active, but is just throwing things out there without actually thinking about anything (see his random voting, the giant listing of fractions, and his joke) and in general this attempt to stay really active gives me a really guilty feel from him SO

##Vote Cyber_Cheese


So tl;dr you'd lynch me to promote lurker play?
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Navillus
Profile Joined February 2011
United States1188 Posts
August 25 2011 00:20 GMT
#217
tl;dr I'd lynch you because
+ Show Spoiler +
That said I think there are scummier people this game, namely Cyber_Cheese, it could be argued that he isn't scum just playing badly, I happen to think both are true, he's just supported too scummy things for me to let him go. He likes random lynching, is saying he's fine taking the lynch, (if he were actually fine with it that might be a town thing but in what I've read people saying that tend to be scum) he's jumped all over the place with his voting with very little reasoning, and overall I'm getting the sense from him that he's trying really hard to stay active, but is just throwing things out there without actually thinking about anything (see his random voting, the giant listing of fractions, and his joke) and in general this attempt to stay really active gives me a really guilty feel from him SO
"TL gives excellent advice 99% of the time. The problem is no one listens to it." -Plexa
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
August 25 2011 00:34 GMT
#218
If the last sentince of that paragraph was not "in general this attempt to stay really active gives me a really guilty feel from him SO"
You might have a point there, and the tl;dr i summized might actually be inaccurate
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Navillus
Profile Joined February 2011
United States1188 Posts
August 25 2011 00:40 GMT
#219
So I'm going to briefly respond to and say I am not promoting lurkers because I was saying your specific attempt to stay active looks really suspicious and specifically how you're staying active with all these useless and unwarranted posts and votes, now I'm going to ignore you unless you come up with something brilliant because I already know what you think about this accusation. Now for someone else, tnkted for example, what do you think about this?
"TL gives excellent advice 99% of the time. The problem is no one listens to it." -Plexa
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
August 25 2011 00:49 GMT
#220
Okay, enough of this, I´m voting, there´s not that much time left anyway. I´ve been following the talk about Wiggles and Cyber, and until two hours ago, my reads were misunderstood Town on Wiggles, and noobtown on Cyber. However, after Cybers wall of text about probabilities, it got a bit too much, there are just so many scumtells. Cyber has too many weird policies and strategies, and ways to justify his actions. There are two things I´m unsure about, first his fascination with policy for Blues, and also the lack of connection to other players, few defend him, noone appear to be coaching him out of this mess. The first could just as easily be a scumtell, the second doesn´t confirm scum, but it doesn´t free him of suspicions either. Scum want to get rid of weak links. From my overall read, I´m betting he´s Scum.

##Vote Cyber_Cheese
:3
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