*Tackster is helping me co-host this game. Any questions can be directed towards him or myself.
Introduction:
Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions. The objective of the game is to lynch or kill all mafia members before they outnumber the rest of the town. It's much like a game of poker because mafia members are also part of the town during the day and may manipulate the vote to their liking. If the mafia at any time outnumber or equal the townspeople, they win. The town's goal is to lynch all the members of the mafia.
The game is typically very active, so the thread will get big quickly. However, it is essential to read the thread to play the game. If you do not have the time or patience to read the whole thread, do not play. I will not compensate for ignorance.
Rules:
Cheating: Cheating includes (but is not limited to): 1. Posting after death. You may have one polite goodbye post, but it may not contain any potentially game-changing information. 2. Ruining the game by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town. 3. Logging on to someone else's account to get their role or looking over someone's shoulder to get their role. 4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles. 5. Posting screenshots of your inbox. 6. Posting any PM you receive from a host. 7. Getting yourself modkilled to help your team. Your non-majority-decided death may not be used as a bargaining chip. 8. Signing up more than once using smurf accounts. 9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits. 10. Sharing accounts with other players. Only you may post on your account. Cheating is not tolerated here. The punishment will be severe.
Posting:
Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Activity: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Smurfs:
On April 26 2011 13:22 mikeymoo wrote: Smurfs must PM the host because TL doesn't allow multiple accounts otherwise. If the host is unaware of smurfs, you (and/or your smurf) can be banned for having multiple accounts.
Spam: Spam is not tolerated, nor is any off-topic material. Do not discuss Proleague here. Do not talk about Starcraft II here. Play Mafia here.
Editing: Editing is not allowed for any reason. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be modkilled. This is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything.
Inappropriate posts: If you want to post something insulting or inappropriate and know the TL mods would have a problem with it elsewhere, don't post it here. If you do, a host will warn you or modkill you and request that you be banned from future games. The hosts have the final say on what is inappropriate. If you do not like how someone is talking to you, please PM a host, Qatol, or Flamewheel before involving the TL staff. If you are unsatisfied with how the situation is resolved, then you can appeal to the TL staff normally.
Reporting posts: The report button is a nice feature for regular TL, but not for this forum. We prefer to deal with things in house if possible to avoid confusion among the TL staff. If you have a problem with how someone is posting, talk to the host, co-host, Qatol, or Flamewheel before using your report button. Please do not use your report button for anything other than inappropriate posts which you feel are not being dealt with adequately.
Ban discussions: Please wait until this game is over to talk about modkills and bans resulting from this game.
Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. However, this does not mean that you should try to win by being a jerk to the other players so they all want to quit playing.
This also means that you cannot leave the game without a good reason without a ban. These situations will be dealt with on a case by case basis. PM your host if you need to leave the game.
You have been warned.
Voting rules:
1. Voting is done in this thread. Do not PM me your vote. 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I will update vote counts whenever I get the chance. 3. No conditional voting. 4. You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. 5. This game follows Extended Majority Lynch Rules. Majority = # of players remaining in the game/2) + 1. Unlike in traditional majority lynch, the lynch is NOT decided the moment majority is reached. Instead, only the final vote count matters. If there is no majority at the deadline, the day ends with a no lynch., Non-voters will be modkilled for failure to vote. 6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.
Signups:
This game is open to anyone. Signups will remain open until all 13 spots have been filled. Post ##in (or /in) to join the game. You may also PM the mod or post ##replacement to join replacement list.
Game-specific rules:
Modkills: This game follows the TL Mafia Ban List. If you are modkilled, your punishment will go beyond being eliminated from this game. Please refer to it for questions about your punishment. If you want to use this game to sit out your ban, please PM Qatol or post in the Ban List.
Replacements: This game uses replacements. If a player is modkilled during the designated time, , then they will be replaced by a player on the replacement list. The player may PM the mod to replace out of the game for non-game related reasons, but may be subjected to warning or ban depending on the situation if such action is taken after end of day 2.
Clues: There are no clues.
PMs/IRC: PMs and IRC are NOT allowed in this game.
Time Cycle: This game will follow a 24 hour night/48 hour day cycle. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. The deadline for each time period will be posted at every night/day post. Credits: Thanks to anyone who has ever hosted a game. This list grows ever longer. Thanks to everyone who helped balance this game.
If you have not read all the rules, go back and do so. I will not compensate for ignorance!
. 1. Sanity is used in this game. Unless your role PM specifically states so, you will not be notified when your sanity changes mid-game. All players at beginning of the game are guaranteed to be sane.
2. When player is killed in the game, his role and sanity will publicly be revealed.
3. Third-party player is not included in the number of living town-aligned players.
4. Bloodlust Rules: When one of the anti-town faction (Mafia and third-party) is completely eliminated from the game, the night will be skipped and next day will immediately begin. This is to prevent kingmaker scenarios.
5.
Btw, I just wanted to add pretty obvious rule. For all players Eldritch Abomination roleclaim is forbidden (since EA role-claiming himself destroys his win condition and introduce invincible cop), nor mafia ousting EA's identity. If you want to lynch someone, rely only on persuasion. I'll rely on honour system - and strict punishment - for people to NOT use this rule as means of rage-quit.
List of Roles
You are Townie whom have no abilities besides ability to vote, for what power can mere humans yield against incomprehensible force?
No change occurs even if you turn insane.
You win when all threats to town are eliminated.
You are Doctor. When the fighting breaks out you bravely choose to stay, thinking it immoral to flee when you have skills to potentially save someone. However unnatural outbreak of insanity in the town slowly starts to concern you...
Every night you can protect one player against mafia NK. Both you and your target will be notified of the successful protect. You cannot protect yourself.
If you are insane, you will have 50% of killing your target instead of protecting him.
You win when all threats to town are eliminated.
You are Psychologist. You recently helped one of the patients using powerful memory-altering drugs, but his former insane rambling disturbs you enough to investigate the town where he had developed his illness. It is a decision you might soon come to regret.
Every night you can visit single player to learn his/her sanity. Status of the player you visit will also become sane if he/she is Insane.
If you become insane, you will commit suicide.
You win when all threats to the town are eliminated.
You are Mafia. Many have been crushed under your violence, but when you move into quiet rural town intending to subjugate it as usual, you might unknowingly have disturbed slumber of the force beyond your understanding...
You can privately talk with each other throughout the game, and choose to kill one player every night.
If you turn insane, you will be notified of the fact immediately; you will receive # of the insane people (including you) in the town at beginning of the every day.
You win when your number outnumber or is equal to the surviving town-aligned players.
You are Eldritch Abomination, an existence impossible to explain. Catching mere sight of you will be enough to drive that individual completely mad. You are absolutely apathetic to affairs of lower beings, even the disturbance caused by invasion of mafia into the town. Unfortunately to residents of the town, upheaval does cause them to deviate from their living pattern which were designed to avoid you, and one by one they will regret it as they stumble upon the sight of madness...
Every night you can visit single player causing him to become Insane. All players who visit you will also become Insane (When sane mafia visits you, he/she will become Insane and the player you visited will be NK'd. When insane mafia visits you, nothing will happen). Throughout the game you will be provided a list of player who are Insane, including their roles. You can only be killed by lynch.
Concept of sanity does not apply to your role. For victory condition purposes, you may assume yourself to be permanently insane in standards of this world.
You win when every living player in the game is Insane AND you are alive at that point of the game.
Action Order Eldritch Abomination -> Psychiatrist -> Doctor -> Mafia
Player List 1. Mr. WigglesMafialynched day three 2. Cyber_Cheese 3. wherebugsgoInsane Towniekilled night four 4. TheFerrymanTowniekilled night two 5. chaos13Insane Towniekilled night three 6. PalmarDoctorkilled night one 7. Navillus 8. Eiii 9. JeeJeeMafialynched day two 10. Jackal58 11. Forumite 12. KurumiPsychiatristmodkilled day five 13. tnktedTownielynched day four
This was previously semi-open setup (PR roles hidden) but we decided to make it completely open to address town UP concerns. Thus while sign-ups take place, feel free to ask questions or address any glaring flaws.
So sanity has no effect on VT besides Eldricht's win condition?
Yes.
Also, is there any way for your sanity to be influenced besides through visiting/being visited by Eldricht?
No.
EDIT: Also, what happens if Insane Medic visits Eldricht?
Eldritch can only be killed by lynch so nothing will happen. Can't forget I missed that tidbit, thanks.
EDIT2: Are there any drawbacks to town extending the day? What keeps town from extending every day in order to have 72 hours for discussion?
People sure didn't use it on Penalty Mafia :p
I should inform you that per new rules I am trying to have one of the qualified balance-checkers look over the game, so there may be some adjustments. I'll keep the changes updated on the thread though.
@Foolishness
On August 21 2011 05:12 Foolishness wrote: Does eldritch count as an insane person from the start of the game?
Yes.
Concept of sanity does not apply to your role. For victory condition purposes, you may assume yourself to be permanently insane in standards of this world.
On August 21 2011 05:26 Sevryn wrote: /in this looks awesome and I am about to die in XLIV
I'll sign you up for now, but please inform me when your situation changes (haven't been following that game so don't know whether your lynch is assured).
Also Foolishness, I answered your question on previous post, just in case you failed to check
The set-up was adjusted after having balance discussion with Foolishness. There are no changes in the rules, butnumber of townie was reduced by 1 while number of mafia was increased by 1. The mafia have also lost their role-checking ability. This will likely be the final major change to take place.
I feel like I saw this posted somewhere but I couldn't find it so I'll just ask here, is one allowed to play in multiple games at the same time? If the answer is yes then /in and don't worry about me staying active I've been than keeping up with XLIV and am confident I can keep up with both games at once.
On August 21 2011 12:44 Navillus wrote: I feel like I saw this posted somewhere but I couldn't find it so I'll just ask here, is one allowed to play in multiple games at the same time? If the answer is yes then /in and don't worry about me staying active I've been than keeping up with XLIV and am confident I can keep up with both games at once.
Depends on the host, but generally yes, you may play in more than one game. I know I allow people to play in XLIV and whatever else they want as long as they are active. ^_^
On August 21 2011 12:44 Navillus wrote: I feel like I saw this posted somewhere but I couldn't find it so I'll just ask here, is one allowed to play in multiple games at the same time? If the answer is yes then /in and don't worry about me staying active I've been than keeping up with XLIV and am confident I can keep up with both games at once.
Depends on the host, but generally yes, you may play in more than one game. I know I allow people to play in XLIV and whatever else they want as long as they are active. ^_^
I'll gladly sign you up. You are not the only one doing so anyway. Please remember to stay active though (and this goes for everyone).
Btw, I just wanted to add pretty obvious rule. For all players Eldritch Abomination roleclaim is forbidden (since EA role-claiming himself destroys his win condition and introduce invincible cop), nor mafia sacrificing one of themselves to oust EA's identity. If you want to lynch someone, rely only on persuasion. I'll rely on honour system - and strict punishment - for people to NOT use this rule as means of rage-quit.
Unfortunately I haven't read that many Lovecraft stories Tackster may be able to take care of it on later dayposts though. I PM'd you already, but game starts now. If you give confirmation that you are not currently busy, I'll start sending out the role PMs.
On August 23 2011 23:25 Hesmyrr wrote: Unfortunately I haven't read that many Lovecraft stories Tackster may be able to take care of it on later dayposts though. I PM'd you already, but game starts now. If you give confirmation that you are not currently busy, I'll start sending out the role PMs.
Really? That's suprising, this game setup seems HEAVILY invested in the cthulu mythos.
Just don't ever describe any of the monsters and use the word 'eldrich' and 'gruesome' a lot (like seriously, every third word or so) and you're basically Lovecraft already.
(I took a lovecraftian class last semester lol so I know all of his little quirks and tricks)
DAY ONE: Even in this age where finding of science inflates with astounding speed, still there are gaps in our knowledge, not of a kind eventually conquered with trial and hypothesis but of a kind whose presence itself defies humanity's basic fascination with logical orderly world. These inexpressible phenomenons challenge our fundamental perspective to such an extent that wise men among us treat it with skepticism and mockery, unconsciously insulating themselves from the unthinkable with armor of disdain. Thus I am probably a fool, for surely this account will be ridiculed and forgotten in spite of – because of – my sincerity, yet nevertheless I feel obligated to record the truth behind happenings of Tiel Massacre, in a forlorn hope that perhaps one day we as a society will evolve enough for our descendents to see this tale not as the ramblings of shell-shocked madman. I fear it may be the closest form of solace the victims will ever have.
It all began, ironically, with arrival of the men.
At the time I was staying in the motel with Dr. Mariell, psychiatrist who through correspondences managed to invoke my curiosity. He wrote of a case with imagery so vivid and unsettling that he further delved onto the matter, to discover the town where the patient had initially developed his symptoms had superstition of disturbingly similar detail. I as a writer once visited Tiel while writing about esoteric locales in America, and the good doctor sought me for my expertise as he planned to do the same thing.
Tiel is small village of less than a thousand population, surrounded by mountain on three sides and accessible only by long drive along the dirt road desperately wanting in maintenance. I must admit the town hardly caught my attention back then; it was just featured as one of those insular, old-fashioned rural communities which are in fact found quite easily if you actually spend the effort. However, when Dr. Mariell came knocking with right set of questions, it became obvious that the townsfolk shared a belief considerably less mundane. There was a tyranny of superstition.
Everyone avoided the mountain range situated southeast from the village, where according to legend something terrible lurked. The extent this vague myth was adhered to was surreal- entire custom had been created around this single assertion, creating the atmosphere of prevalent deference. I refrain from calling it fear. Despite their conviction that powerful eldritch force resided beside them, they did not seem that concerned either- as long as it went respected and undisturbed.
Three days after entering Tiel, Dr. Marriel and I were debating fiercely on whether to check the forbidden site or not. I do not know what he believed, but intensity in these people – some concealed madness waiting to be sparked I thought – was such that I genuinely feared of my safety should we get caught trying to sneak in. And there was something else. Maybe it was collective behavior of the townsfolk, but
[SUMMARY] * Mafia moves in the forbidden zone before talker make decision * One people is found dead having suicided in strange manner * Group of townies clearly think it is fault of mafia for disturbing whatever it is, and will enter the forbidden zone to purge them.
Hesmyrr, Townie(Insane), was found dead.
Disclaimer that flavour post obviously have no bearing on the game. The deadline ends at August 25 2011 23:45 KST, which is 14:45 GMT (+00:00) EXTENSION WAS USED; The FINAL deadline is August 26 2011 23:46 KST, which is 14:46 GMT (+00:00)
Dammit I need to role something more interesting than townie one of these days... anyway, I've never played a mini before so I'm very open to any mini-specific advice anyone has.
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Oh!? You have a win condition other than winning with town?
On August 24 2011 00:20 Navillus wrote: Dammit I need to role something more interesting than townie one of these days... anyway, I've never played a mini before so I'm very open to any mini-specific advice anyone has.
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Oh!? You have a win condition other than winning with town?
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Oh!? You have a win condition other than winning with town?
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Oh!? You have a win condition other than winning with town?
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Oh!? You have a win condition other than winning with town?
derp.
lololo
#vote palmar
stop reading things you want to read.
Okay, that doesn't make any sense, but I think I know what you mean.
I honestly think you slipped there. I think you're mafia or eldrich horror and posted a joke, not realizing what the joke revealed about yourself. The way you said it was far too casual to be purposeful and 'I'm discarding my win condition' has nothing to do with the humor in the joke and screams mafia.
When are we getting a voting thread? I want to make this vote official.
This is not what happened. My win condition is to eliminate all threats to town. I did not slip, you're trying to manufacture evidence out of something that doesn't exist. My joke can't even be shrugged off as bad town play because nothing exists in it that would indicate I'm not town.
1. Voting is done in this thread. Do not PM me your vote. 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I will update vote counts whenever I get the chance.
Hold on a minute, I'll update the current voting list here. I'll accept your vote for now but remember to put in right format next time, otherwise I might miss it while skimming (searching ##vote). Also, I won't care much about capitalization as long as spelling is correct.
Nonononono please don't actually vote Palmar for that I've seen way too many people get lynched for one-off supposed "scumslips" that ended up being town, on the other hand
I never believe Palmar is a townie. At least not on day 1 or 2. Unless he starts quoting Shakespeare. So ya Palmar made a joke at my expense. I wouldn't use that as a basis to get him killed. At least not yet anyways.
Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity.
So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well)
There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as.
Pros:
-Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary)
Cons:
-Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target.
Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is.
Thing is , how easy is it for ANYONE to claim psychologist and be untouched unlessthe true psychologist comes forward and then stuff will just get messy?
On August 24 2011 02:57 Erandorr wrote: Thing is , how easy is it for ANYONE to claim psychologist and be untouched unlessthe true psychologist comes forward and then stuff will just get messy?
Then we have a confirmed scum, and a 1-1 trade with mafia, which benefits town. (No way eldricht would be that stupid).
Also, looking at the OP again, I think that our Doctors should also breadcrumb their visits, because insanity is revealed on flip as well, and along with the psychologist, we can cross-reference to find the eldricht horror.
As well, all townies should maybe put fake breadcrumbs into their posts, because that way mafia can't blue-snipe by finding all the breadcrumbs. Then, we just ignore any crumbs, until that person flips or claims.
Oh btw Wiggles I just reread the OP and whoever is Psy. should not claim . You didnt think it through. Psy claims -> Aldrich visits FIRST -> psy dies -> the end and aldrich will have his way.
On August 24 2011 03:06 Erandorr wrote: Oh btw Wiggles I just reread the OP and whoever is Psy. should not claim . You didnt think it through. Psy claims -> Aldrich visits FIRST -> psy dies -> the end and aldrich will have his way.
Am I correct with the rule part?
Oh, missed that too. Doesn't matter though, because I realized him claiming is a bad idea anyways. :p
On August 24 2011 02:57 Erandorr wrote: Thing is , how easy is it for ANYONE to claim psychologist and be untouched unlessthe true psychologist comes forward and then stuff will just get messy?
There are lots of gambits that scum can play by claiming psych, or killing the psych, etc. I don't think psych should claim at all until late game, and if he's killed we need to be very careful with our vigs and medics.
how does insanity effect mafia? Do their kills fail or something?
Insanity will not have negative effect on mafia (check OP for extra info), except that when insane mafia targets Eldritch Abomination their hit will fail (check EA role PM to see what happens when sane mafia targets EA for NK).
What if we just have everyone claim they checked someone everyday so that way the psych doesn't have to claim but when he dies we can go back and see who he has checked.
There is no reason to claim psychologist, we need him to cure doc if doc goes mad, but the horror will obviously go straight for him post-claim, cause a suicide and that's the end of the eldritch's problems And the doc can't reveal because the mafia will target him
Wait, didn't someone say something about the doc debuff being cancelled because of the extra mafia? Or was that not official? And while I'm talking about a docs powers, doc cant heal the psychologist from suicide can he?
as far as I can tell, this is a game of all claiming townie and praying the lynches work in our favour
Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity.
So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well)
There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as.
Pros:
-Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary)
Cons:
-Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target.
Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is.
Discuss!
Okay what? if the psych claims the horror makes him insane he kills himself how does that work at all this is a horrible plan.
Wait, didn't someone say something about the doc debuff being cancelled because of the extra mafia? Or was that not official? And while I'm talking about a docs powers, doc cant heal the psychologist from suicide can he?
You don't have to care about that. All the role details shown on the OP are 100% correct, such as this:
Every night you can protect one player against mafia NK
@Jackal58
1. Sanity is used in this game. Unless your role PM specifically states so, you will not be notified when your sanity changes mid-game. All players at beginning of the game are guaranteed to be sane.
On August 24 2011 03:21 Sevryn wrote: What if we just have everyone claim they checked someone everyday so that way the psych doesn't have to claim but when he dies we can go back and see who he has checked.
the only flaw being the possibility for the horror to visit the psych instead of vice-versa making someone else look guilty
Wait, didn't someone say something about the doc debuff being cancelled because of the extra mafia? Or was that not official? And while I'm talking about a docs powers, doc cant heal the psychologist from suicide can he?
You don't have to care about that. All the role details shown on the OP are 100% correct, such as this:
1. Sanity is used in this game. Unless your role PM specifically states so, you will not be notified when your sanity changes mid-game. All players at beginning of the game are guaranteed to be sane.
On August 24 2011 03:21 Sevryn wrote: What if we just have everyone claim they checked someone everyday so that way the psych doesn't have to claim but when he dies we can go back and see who he has checked.
the only flaw being the possibility for the horror to visit the psych instead of vice-versa making someone else look guilty
I Was actually thinking we all claim before the night who we are going to "check" then when the psychic commits suicide we have a 50/50 chance of getting him right there and otherwise we still have a decent idea of who is sane.
Oh no no no, lets not let this game devolve into an AFK fest like personality mafia. Lets discuss our lynch today.
I still want to lynch palmar. I think d1 is practically a freelynch and I think palmar slipped in his very first post. I am wondering what other people think about this.
On August 24 2011 00:20 Navillus wrote: Dammit I need to role something more interesting than townie one of these days... anyway, I've never played a mini before so I'm very open to any mini-specific advice anyone has.
How about this for a new target.
Playing the OMG I am so inexperienced card and claiming vanilla town day 1. Interesting post dude
On August 24 2011 03:21 Sevryn wrote: What if we just have everyone claim they checked someone everyday so that way the psych doesn't have to claim but when he dies we can go back and see who he has checked.
i dont like this. this is only helpful if psych visits EA first, and we don't know if that happens.
i.e. if psych claimed "im gonna visit A" and commits suicide because EA visited him, everyone would think that A is EA, wasting a lynch.
plus obviously doc has to lie about his target so it doesn't help to narrow down EA in the case of insane doc kills, and this helps EA since he never visits anyone who claims to visit him (possible 2x insane in one night), plus EA will know that the person who claimed to visit him isn't a psych, narrowing down his search twice as fast.
I don't think he's acted any scummier than Palmar, but Palmar has a better excuse to lynch. Navillus said the sort of thing I said all the time when I was a newbie. Palmar said something that could either be a joke or a slip and I'm rating the chances of either at 50-50.
Ladies and Gentelmen. The Eldricht horror has just successfully ousted himself. Well done wiggles.
Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is the horror afraid of? Two things, 1.) the lynch, as it kills him and makes him incapable of winning, and conversely town losing too fast, since then he won't be able to infect everyone in time. This means that the horror is going to try to present an organized, pro-town stance and appearance, so expect things like long policy/mechanics posts and attempts at directing town attention early in the game, and later focus on scumhunting, probably successfully getting scum lynched. He obviously wants to draw scum hits, since they increase the number of insane people in the town. All this means he is going to try to *appear* town, while pushing to resolve his fear #2
2.) The psychologist, as every night the psychologist is alive the horror's wincondition becomes a little harder to carry out. For this reason expect plans that involve the psychologist claiming, and plans that require mass claims. Remember the sooner the psychologist is dead, the sooner the horror can carry out his wincondition.
With that in mind, lets take a good look at Wiggles first post of the game. My comments in spoilers inside the quote
On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote: ##Vote: Eiii Where you at?
Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity.
Right here, he is already downplaying the danger the horror poses to the town, I'm betting that if he is ousted later in the game he'll try explain how lynching the horror is a "waste of a lynch" when we could be hitting "real scum". Also, notice how he is *already* taking about the psychologist. Its the number one thing on his mind. He couldn't even get past the first paragraph without worrying about it
So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well)
Look at this magnificent plan to get his hands on the psychologist, for a 1/13 chance of losing outright he gets to kill his #1 threat to victory. Plus, he is going to be so "pro-town" the worrying about the psychologist checking *him* won't be an issue. Look at point 1 and 2 above, here is wiggles, promoting a plan that reveals the psychologist yet appears pro-town. this is the giveaway that wiggles has only one focus. Notice how the mafia is only mentioned in passing and the medic isn't even a concern. Its because to wiggles those things aren't important, in his mind those take second place to the much more relevant psychologist that stands in his way, and of course to appearing town
There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as.
Pros:
-Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary)
Cons:
-Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target.
Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is.
and now he is backtracking, while still pushing for the psychologist to "breadcrumb", which wiggles, our mega clue master will be able to catch. Notice how he isn't even supporting his own plan, its a "point of discussion". In other words, he is hoping a foolish townie is going to pick it up and run with it, or even better a stupid psychologist is going to think "huh, this isn't bad, I better do as wiggles suggested". A real townie, someone who cares about whether the town loses or wins is not going to propose what he considers a bad plan, especially not a veteran player like wiggles, who knows that as a rule of thumb, towns are stupid and tend to subscribe to bad ideas. BY proposing a poor idea as a "point of discussion" wiggles is pushing all the objectives of a smart horror.
On August 24 2011 03:21 Sevryn wrote: What if we just have everyone claim they checked someone everyday so that way the psych doesn't have to claim but when he dies we can go back and see who he has checked.
i dont like this. this is only helpful if psych visits EA first, and we don't know if that happens.
i.e. if psych claimed "im gonna visit A" and commits suicide because EA visited him, everyone would think that A is EA, wasting a lynch.
plus obviously doc has to lie about his target so it doesn't help to narrow down EA in the case of insane doc kills, and this helps EA since he never visits anyone who claims to visit him (possible 2x insane in one night), plus EA will know that the person who claimed to visit him isn't a psych, narrowing down his search twice as fast.
this is an awfully pro-EA plan -.^
Hadnt thought about this disregard my plan lets just not claim
On August 24 2011 05:47 Jackal58 wrote: Who are you Smurfing for Ferryman?
Lol, not smurfing, I just actually took the time to read the guides and previous games before jumping in and playing a game.
What do you think of my accusation of wiggles? Am I off base?
If it wasn't Wiggles I'd say you're spot on. But Wiggles is the only one here that I'm aware of that has won a game as the SK before. But I also used this rationale to talk myself into believing Wiggles couldn't be scum once when the scum team was playing like 2 year old kids on Valium. I don't believe Wiggles to be the 3rd party atm. I would say Palmar has more likelihood of that but that isn't saying much right now either. If you're right kudos to you. I'd rather wait a bit and see what develops. If Mr. Wiggles is town he is probably the best player we have.
On August 24 2011 05:47 Jackal58 wrote: Who are you Smurfing for Ferryman?
Lol, not smurfing, I just actually took the time to read the guides and previous games before jumping in and playing a game.
What do you think of my accusation of wiggles? Am I off base?
If it wasn't Wiggles I'd say you're spot on. But Wiggles is the only one here that I'm aware of that has won a game as the SK before. But I also used this rationale to talk myself into believing Wiggles couldn't be scum once when the scum team was playing like 2 year old kids on Valium. I don't believe Wiggles to be the 3rd party atm. I would say Palmar has more likelihood of that but that isn't saying much right now either. If you're right kudos to you. I'd rather wait a bit and see what develops. If Mr. Wiggles is town he is probably the best player we have.
Hmm, is there any reason, other than pure meta why you think I might be wrong? I mean I don't really see what relevance wiggle's victory in survivor mafia has to do with the fact that his play right now is exactly in line with they way the EH is supposed to play.
What am I missing?
I agree wiggles is a strong player, but that doesn't mean we should be afraid to lynch him, not with such a damming post.
I'd really appreciate it if you would flesh out why you don't think wiggles is third party.
On August 24 2011 05:47 Jackal58 wrote: Who are you Smurfing for Ferryman?
Lol, not smurfing, I just actually took the time to read the guides and previous games before jumping in and playing a game.
What do you think of my accusation of wiggles? Am I off base?
If it wasn't Wiggles I'd say you're spot on. But Wiggles is the only one here that I'm aware of that has won a game as the SK before. But I also used this rationale to talk myself into believing Wiggles couldn't be scum once when the scum team was playing like 2 year old kids on Valium. I don't believe Wiggles to be the 3rd party atm. I would say Palmar has more likelihood of that but that isn't saying much right now either. If you're right kudos to you. I'd rather wait a bit and see what develops. If Mr. Wiggles is town he is probably the best player we have.
Hmm, is there any reason, other than pure meta why you think I might be wrong? I mean I don't really see what relevance wiggle's victory in survivor mafia has to do with the fact that his play right now is exactly in line with they way the EH is supposed to play.
What am I missing?
I agree wiggles is a strong player, but that doesn't mean we should be afraid to lynch him, not with such a damming post.
I'd really appreciate it if you would flesh out why you don't think wiggles is third party.
Thanks.
Purely based on Meta. Like I said that assumption on my part was wrong before too.
Wiggles, his post was talking about a pro-EA strategy, but it doesn´t mean he really wanted to implement it, just watch reactions. Anyone insisting it as a great plan is suspicious because it doesn´t take long to figure out the problems with it. Either he´s playing risky Town or crappy EA, and if he´s a veteran, risky Town seems more likely.
The one thing that feels really forced in Ferryman's post is the fact that he for some reason assumes that specifically making long policy posts at the start of the game is optimal play for the EA. I have no idea why this would be the case.
Like, I personally never dig into that policy thing, I just wait till people start arguing about them and try to pick out the scum. But for some reason you feel that it's somehow a necessity for the EA to play that way, ie: you're artificially inflating your argument, which is weird to me.
...and right away wiggles and palmar make themselves the topics of the day.
On August 24 2011 01:12 Palmar wrote: Right.
This is not what happened. My win condition is to eliminate all threats to town. I did not slip, you're trying to manufacture evidence out of something that doesn't exist. My joke can't even be shrugged off as bad town play because nothing exists in it that would indicate I'm not town.
This post sets off a lot of alarm bells for me. So many that I'm just gonna go ahead and ##vote Palmar
Wiggle's plan is awful and super-pro EA, yeah, but the more interesting part of his posts to me is how much he's pushing that everyone should breadcrumb. This is my third try on typing up something about breadcrumbs, and I'm not at all sure what to think about them anymore. They can be really useful in piecing everything together lategame, yeah, but I'm really worried about how they can be used to manipulate town. Breadcrumbing pro-town stuff all game long and then revealing it all when it's LYLO or something is a really good plan for smart scum. So our only option would be to look back at people's crumbs after they die, which again leaves town open to manipulation if scum can make some really good connections that aren't there. So basically, the only way we should trust any sort of breadcrumbing scheme if if the person who made the crumbs claims them and then flips town. And, if that's the case... why do we even need breadcrumbs? I understand that, especially in a game like this where the blues' actions are so critical, it's really appealing to try to set up a system where everyone can deduce what happened, but looking at the setup, I don't think it's a good idea in this game.
alright I hope that made sense. One more thing: What happens if an insane doctor visits EA?
So, Jackal, meta makes you think wiggles is not a 3rd party, does it? Lets look at the a game where wiggle has been third party in the past, and compare his behavior in that game to his behavior here. (I am disregarding the game where he was an assassin, since in that game his goal was not to appear pro-town, but rather maintain a scummy profile to avoid being shot by the mafia, and survivor mafia, where he was the only anti-town player in an open PM game)
Lets take a look at a post in Insane mafia 2, hosted by LSB, where wiggles was part of a third party faction. Here is a sample post. Some background, for those who don't feel like figuring out what happened. Bumatlarge had just claimed to be part of the town aligned circle of blues, who all knew each other and each other's alignment, in a bid to gain mayorship, no one counterclaimed him, which basically meant he was confirmed town, and a dt to boot. Kavdragon, a member of wiggle's third party team was also vying for the mayorship. Now read the post.
On March 25 2011 05:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so here's my thoughts on the mayorship:
For me, this is really between Kav and bum.
At the moment, I'm trying to figure out how much I want to trust bum's blue claim. So far, he is uncontested, which possibly bodes well for him being a true blue. However, as others have stated, and I've been considering, there is still the possibility of his being scum, even with no counterclaim. It really comes down to the likelihood of Blues wanting to make a 1-1 trade so early in the game, and before roles have even been given. I am assuming, since everyone will have a power, that blues will be much stronger than greens. There is also a disparity between the number of powerful town roles (Blues) and scum in this game, and while I personally feel analysis is a far stronger tool, most of the TL towns I've been in have been reverent of Blue's power, often to the point of reliance (Eg: XXXV). So just applying metagame, it seems unusual a blue would be willing to put himself out there so quickly and prominently.
I see this either as a power move by the blues (as most people are assuming), or as a cunning play by scum. A lot of my suspicion comes from timing. Bum claimed before night 0 is over, and I would have trusted it a lot more if it was on Day 1, as he would have his role already. For example, bum could be scum, but conceivably a blue wouldn't bother to contest him until they get their roles, so they can use the weakest combination of role/player on their team to out him, which makes it harder for them, considering the amount of time bum has been uncontested, which can also be used for a WIFOM argument from him.
Kav on the other hand, has no real assurances that he is not scum. So far, his posting has seemed pro-town, but he hasn't really expounded on any of his views besides that he wants to stay alive to analyze and direct the town. I've had first-hand experience with him as mayor, working closely with him in XXXVI, so I know that he is a very capable and active player. Before I'd vote for him though, I'd need to hear more about what he'd do Day 1 lynch, and what other things he'd try to do with his longevity.
So, in short, I feel both Bum and Kav would make good mayors. Kav based on personal experience with him, and Bum on the condition of being blue. I'm still trying to evaluate the likelihood of a Night 0 blue claim though, because I really don't like the timing, and would like to see if there are counterclaims Day 1. Hopefully if Bum isn't blue, someone would eventually counterclaim, because blues wouldn't want to let scum become mayor. I also don't think the lack of Night 0 counterclaims really strengthens his claim in any way, because as I've said, blues probably wouldn't counterclaim until Day 1 anyways, when they can make a much better choice of counterclaiming player.
Notice one thing, the obvious fact was that bum *had* to be a blue, else the blue faction would have conterclaimed. However third party wiggles isn't afraid to push a anti-town agenda to further his own team. 3rd party wiggles isn't afraid to push his own plans, against the town. Also notice how a third party wiggles is really good at ending his post with dodging responsibility, his whole post casts doubts on bum, yet at the end of the post he backs down, while still supporting his agenda of getting his buddy elected.
Lets compare that to his first post this game where wiggles, pushes a anti-town agenda and at the end backs down to dodge responsibility. The similarity between these two posts is... stunning. For the sake of fairness lets look at what Wiggle's normal town play looks like, with a post from BCs Arkham Asylum, where wiggles was Zsasz a vigilante.
On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so let's get this started!
First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines.
A pro-town atmosphere
This normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things:
Promoting scum hunting.
Not having pointless arguments
Actively contributing
All that jazz
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important.
We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum.
Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia.
Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk.
Clues
There's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUSTMUSTMUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum.
Third Parties
Looking at the third parties, here's what we want:
-We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition.
This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game.
If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game? If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game?
Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling.
Lets look at the key differences between this type of early game post and wiggle's post in this game. What does it talk about? It talks about catching scum, about things that are relevant to the main objective, defeating the mafia. What does it do that the other post doesn't?
1.) It gives concrete, powerful advice about things that need to be said, and things that are important to avoding chaos. Is that even mentioned in his post here? Of course not, this game, he could care less about a good scum-hunting atmosphere, since all he has to do is *appear* town, the actual atmosphere is irrelevant, since if he can't find mafia he'll fabricate a case. The post from arkham is attempting to be helpful
2.)This post owns up to what it is trying to do, that is lead and organize the town, with no excuses made for it. Wiggles shows no hesitation, no "well, actually its ok if you bicker, that might help hunt scum too" in this post wiggles owns up to his post. there is no hesitation, just ownership
3.) He doesn't focus excessively on one topic he talks about a bunch of different things. He reveals his mind is not focused around a particular target, he covers everything unlike his post this game that focuses on the two elements that he is most focused on.
Wiggle's meta fits perfectly with the way third party wiggle plays, pushing his objectives while backtracking so it looks like he isn't. It looks nothing like his town meta, where he doesn't have a single minded focus, and actually owns up to his posts, while trying to propose things that are actually helpful, rather than a objectivity bad plan.
Sorry Jackal, but your meta read is wrong, Wiggles is a Horror, without a shadow of doubt.
On August 24 2011 07:19 Palmar wrote: The one thing that feels really forced in Ferryman's post is the fact that he for some reason assumes that specifically making long policy posts at the start of the game is optimal play for the EA. I have no idea why this would be the case.
Like, I personally never dig into that policy thing, I just wait till people start arguing about them and try to pick out the scum. But for some reason you feel that it's somehow a necessity for the EA to play that way, ie: you're artificially inflating your argument, which is weird to me.
Its a meta argument, Wiggles almost always makes long policy posts early on. Hence why if he is EA he is *still* going to make long policy posts. If *you* were the EA then I wouldn't expect you to make long policy posts, nor would i expect it as scum, or as town. I wouldn't expect it from you at all, you favor the more aggressive "Random Voting Phase" which I think is useless.
"Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis.
EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it.
On August 24 2011 07:35 Palmar wrote: Care to explain what alarms it sets off? You seem to be perfectly fine with throwing down a vote based on nothing but "setting off alarms".
You made a post containing something that could be taken as scummy, tnk pointed it out, you go 'derp' and tell him to stop looking for things that aren't there. So far so good.
Then, once tnk pushes you a bit, you get really defensive. That post I quoted just doesn't feel like a post that a comfortable player makes.
On August 24 2011 07:59 TheFerryman wrote: EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it.
On August 24 2011 05:38 TheFerryman wrote: Ladies and Gentelmen. The Eldricht horror has just successfully ousted himself. Well done wiggles.
Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is the horror afraid of? Two things, 1.) the lynch, as it kills him and makes him incapable of winning, and conversely town losing too fast, since then he won't be able to infect everyone in time. This means that the horror is going to try to present an organized, pro-town stance and appearance, so expect things like long policy/mechanics posts and attempts at directing town attention early in the game, and later focus on scumhunting, probably successfully getting scum lynched. He obviously wants to draw scum hits, since they increase the number of insane people in the town. All this means he is going to try to *appear* town, while pushing to resolve his fear #2
2.) The psychologist, as every night the psychologist is alive the horror's wincondition becomes a little harder to carry out. For this reason expect plans that involve the psychologist claiming, and plans that require mass claims. Remember the sooner the psychologist is dead, the sooner the horror can carry out his wincondition.
With that in mind, lets take a good look at Wiggles first post of the game. My comments in spoilers inside the quote
On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote: ##Vote: Eiii Where you at?
Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity.
Right here, he is already downplaying the danger the horror poses to the town, I'm betting that if he is ousted later in the game he'll try explain how lynching the horror is a "waste of a lynch" when we could be hitting "real scum". Also, notice how he is *already* taking about the psychologist. Its the number one thing on his mind. He couldn't even get past the first paragraph without worrying about it
So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well)
Look at this magnificent plan to get his hands on the psychologist, for a 1/13 chance of losing outright he gets to kill his #1 threat to victory. Plus, he is going to be so "pro-town" the worrying about the psychologist checking *him* won't be an issue. Look at point 1 and 2 above, here is wiggles, promoting a plan that reveals the psychologist yet appears pro-town. this is the giveaway that wiggles has only one focus. Notice how the mafia is only mentioned in passing and the medic isn't even a concern. Its because to wiggles those things aren't important, in his mind those take second place to the much more relevant psychologist that stands in his way, and of course to appearing town
There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as.
Pros:
-Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary)
Cons:
-Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target.
Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is.
and now he is backtracking, while still pushing for the psychologist to "breadcrumb", which wiggles, our mega clue master will be able to catch. Notice how he isn't even supporting his own plan, its a "point of discussion". In other words, he is hoping a foolish townie is going to pick it up and run with it, or even better a stupid psychologist is going to think "huh, this isn't bad, I better do as wiggles suggested". A real townie, someone who cares about whether the town loses or wins is not going to propose what he considers a bad plan, especially not a veteran player like wiggles, who knows that as a rule of thumb, towns are stupid and tend to subscribe to bad ideas. BY proposing a poor idea as a "point of discussion" wiggles is pushing all the objectives of a smart horror.
This is a strong case for wiggles being the horror. I think that we should focus on the mafia first and the horror second. because our win condition is all threats to the town are eliminated while the scum is just to be equal to the town aligned players which means we are essentially 9v3. mafia has one kp so assuming worst case scenario we lose 2 per day/night cycle so 7v3 second day 5v3 third day. If we reach the case of 5v3 i propose we make it go to a no lynch so that after the mafia kill someone it will be 4v3 instead of instead of a 5v3. I think we should do these in all cases such as 4v2 make it a 3v2 and 1 v 3 make it a 1v2.
If we find a good mafia target for a day one lynch i will vote for the mafia because if it gets to where we would abstain for voting for a more town favored lylo we can lynch the horror instead or just save the horror for a day we don't have a good mafia suspect(that could be today but it is still too soon to tell) ##vote Mr. Wiggles I will change my vote if we find a good mafia to lynch
On August 24 2011 07:59 TheFerryman wrote: EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it.
Really. Who are you smurfing for?
If he is new I wanna know where he came from really awesome posts.
On August 24 2011 07:59 TheFerryman wrote: EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it.
Really. Who are you smurfing for?
If he is new I wanna know where he came from really awesome posts.
he's not new, he's read way too many games for that to make sense.
On August 24 2011 07:59 TheFerryman wrote: EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it.
Really. Who are you smurfing for?
If he is new I wanna know where he came from really awesome posts.
he's not new, he's read way too many games for that to make sense.
he claims to be new so either hes a smurfy smurf or he read all the games before playing one.
On August 24 2011 07:23 Eiii wrote: alright I hope that made sense. One more thing: What happens if an insane doctor visits EA?
EA can only be killed by a lynch, so nothing happens.
On breadcrumbing, without info-roles, it´s not that usefull in this game, and is more likely to attract attention from scum and EA, or plunge us into a WIFOM swamp, than actually aid Town. I advice against it, but it´s up to the player.
On August 24 2011 07:59 TheFerryman wrote: EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it.
Really. Who are you smurfing for?
If he is new I wanna know where he came from really awesome posts.
he's not new, he's read way too many games for that to make sense.
Instead of speculating about whether or not I'm a smurf, try reading my case and commenting on it.
You can assume whatever you want. I'm new, I was waiting for a smallish game, so I took the opportunity to read through as many games as possible.
On August 24 2011 07:59 TheFerryman wrote: EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it.
Really. Who are you smurfing for?
If he is new I wanna know where he came from really awesome posts.
he's not new, he's read way too many games for that to make sense.
Instead of speculating about whether or not I'm a smurf, try reading my case and commenting on it.
You can assume whatever you want. I'm new, I was waiting for a smallish game, so I took the opportunity to read through as many games as possible.
Now focus on things that actually *matter*.
I did read your posts. That's why I asked again. Was more a joke than anything. I can't disagree with your analysis. But I can wait a bit before I decide on who I'm voting for and why. If you read all the games I've played you'll find I'm pretty useless on day 1 and typically dead by day 2.
On Wiggles, I´m not prepared to vote on him until I hear him defend himself. He hasn´t posted since Ferryman posted his analysis on Wiggles, and I´m fairly sure that was the first FoS on him.
So we can have discussion, I'm going to respond to the case against me, which for once seems thought out for a day 1 case. My responses in Blue.
On August 24 2011 05:38 TheFerryman wrote: Ladies and Gentelmen. The Eldricht horror has just successfully ousted himself. Well done wiggles.
Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is the horror afraid of? Two things, 1.) the lynch, as it kills him and makes him incapable of winning, and conversely town losing too fast, since then he won't be able to infect everyone in time. This means that the horror is going to try to present an organized, pro-town stance and appearance, so expect things like long policy/mechanics posts and attempts at directing town attention early in the game, and later focus on scumhunting, probably successfully getting scum lynched. He obviously wants to draw scum hits, since they increase the number of insane people in the town. All this means he is going to try to *appear* town, while pushing to resolve his fear #2
Making posts talking about the set-up is the best way to get people talking about the game. It provides an entry point for discussion, which is normally sorely lacking in games that start on Day 1. Before my post, all people were talking about was basically fluff, and completely useless from a scum-hunting point of view. Basically, you got people making terrible votes that don't even generate pressure, and a bunch of OMGUS. I even made fun of this by randomly voting for Eiii and posting the song "Under Pressure" (Haha haha haha :p)
So, by talking about the set-up, we can begin to gather information, see where people stand. Anti-town players are going to try to push for something anti-town while attempting to make it appear pro-town, or divert town attention to something meaningless. Honestly, I was surprised that no one else had attempted to talk about the set-up, because that's the easiest way to start a conversation.
Also, any decent player is going to open with a general post, and then scum hunt. It doesn't make sense to do otherwise, and if you are new, then you too suffer from that terrible disease of "You must scum hunt when there is no content to do so from", for an example of this, check out Arkham Asylum, which you've claimed to have read, and that I'll be referencing again.
2.) The psychologist, as every night the psychologist is alive the horror's wincondition becomes a little harder to carry out. For this reason expect plans that involve the psychologist claiming, and plans that require mass claims. Remember the sooner the psychologist is dead, the sooner the horror can carry out his wincondition. + Show Spoiler +
I never asked the psychologist to claim. I considered it, then decided it was a bad idea. You're putting words in my mouth -_-. Also note no plans about mass-claiming.
With that in mind, lets take a good look at Wiggles first post of the game. My comments in spoilers inside the quote
On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote: ##Vote: Eiii Where you at?
Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity.
Right here, he is already downplaying the danger the horror poses to the town, I'm betting that if he is ousted later in the game he'll try explain how lynching the horror is a "waste of a lynch" when we could be hitting "real scum". Also, notice how he is *already* taking about the psychologist. Its the number one thing on his mind. He couldn't even get past the first paragraph without worrying about it
What danger does the Horror pose to town? He has no KP, and the only effect he has is that the psychologist dies when he comes into contact with him (And the psychologist is a role that focuses entirely on the horror mechanic), and he screws up our medic and mafia KP. He poses no direct danger to us, and is only dangerous in that he can end the game early if he achieves his win-con. However, his win condition won't come into effect until at least day three, simply due to the somewhat slow rate of conversion. This means that it is relatively safe to ignore him for day 1 at least, because he has the power to do nothing to town. In fact, I would say that the people hunting for the horror are more likely to be mafia, because it provides them an out in terms of analysis because they can scum hunt for something that is actually anti-town, not mafia, and that will give them town cred.
So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well)
Look at this magnificent plan to get his hands on the psychologist, for a 1/13 chance of losing outright he gets to kill his #1 threat to victory. Plus, he is going to be so "pro-town" the worrying about the psychologist checking *him* won't be an issue. Look at point 1 and 2 above, here is wiggles, promoting a plan that reveals the psychologist yet appears pro-town. this is the giveaway that wiggles has only one focus. Notice how the mafia is only mentioned in passing and the medic isn't even a concern. Its because to wiggles those things aren't important, in his mind those take second place to the much more relevant psychologist that stands in his way, and of course to appearing town
You have to take posts as a whole, keep reading...
As well, why is the medic a concern when talking specifically about the horror and the psychologist? The medic does not effect that dynamic, while the mafia can by shooting the psychologist. Nice try to make me look like I'm focusing too much on the psychologist, when he's the only role that's relevant when talking about the horror.
There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as.
Pros:
-Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary)
Cons:
-Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target.
Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is.
and now he is backtracking, while still pushing for the psychologist to "breadcrumb", which wiggles, our mega clue master will be able to catch. Notice how he isn't even supporting his own plan, its a "point of discussion". In other words, he is hoping a foolish townie is going to pick it up and run with it, or even better a stupid psychologist is going to think "huh, this isn't bad, I better do as wiggles suggested". A real townie, someone who cares about whether the town loses or wins is not going to propose what he considers a bad plan, especially not a veteran player like wiggles, who knows that as a rule of thumb, towns are stupid and tend to subscribe to bad ideas. BY proposing a poor idea as a "point of discussion" wiggles is pushing all the objectives of a smart horror.
Not backtracking. I came up with the idea of having the psychologist claim, but then decided that it was bad, and said so in my post. However, instead of not posting at all, I decided that it would be better to just post it anyways to provide a point for discussion, which had been very much absent until that point. Only an IDIOT would have read that post, where I say "I don't think it's really worth it", and then decide to claim Psychologist in thread. I was actually hoping that someone would try to argue against what I said, and push for the plan to be implemented, because there would be high chance of them being the horror (not a dumb townie). Unfortunately, no one took the bait.
So, you're putting words in my mouth again to try to push my lynch. I did not suggest that the psychologist should claim, in fact I said that I think it's a bad idea. As well, if you read my further posts, I said that the psychologist should breadcrumb, but that the rest of town should breadcrumb in that case as well, because then mafia can't just find the breadcrumbs and blue-snipe. I suggest a plan of obfuscation, that will provide the ability to easily reveal targets on flip or on claim, as opposed to opening up the avenue of fake-claiming without prior clues for the mafia. Also, such breadcrumbs should only be for names of targets, not the actual action as well.
So, is it better to post something, that you know is a bad idea, in order to promote discussion, or is it better to post nothing at all? Ferryman seems to believe that it is better to not post, or that someone posting and trying to generate discussion is anti-town. He twists what I wrote a lot, by saying that I'm trying to push forward this plan, when in reality, I myself wrote that it wasn't that great. As well, instead of discussing the merits of my ideas with me, the point of my post, he instead simply attacks me as the horror, which does nothing to help us choose the most optimal route of play.
On August 24 2011 07:35 TheFerryman wrote:
On Meta, and Wiggles.
So, Jackal, meta makes you think wiggles is not a 3rd party, does it? Lets look at the a game where wiggle has been third party in the past, and compare his behavior in that game to his behavior here. (I am disregarding the game where he was an assassin, since in that game his goal was not to appear pro-town, but rather maintain a scummy profile to avoid being shot by the mafia, and survivor mafia, where he was the only anti-town player in an open PM game)
Lets take a look at a post in Insane mafia 2, hosted by LSB, where wiggles was part of a third party faction. Here is a sample post. Some background, for those who don't feel like figuring out what happened. Bumatlarge had just claimed to be part of the town aligned circle of blues, who all knew each other and each other's alignment, in a bid to gain mayorship, no one counterclaimed him, which basically meant he was confirmed town, and a dt to boot. Kavdragon, a member of wiggle's third party team was also vying for the mayorship. Now read the post.
On March 25 2011 05:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so here's my thoughts on the mayorship:
For me, this is really between Kav and bum.
At the moment, I'm trying to figure out how much I want to trust bum's blue claim. So far, he is uncontested, which possibly bodes well for him being a true blue. However, as others have stated, and I've been considering, there is still the possibility of his being scum, even with no counterclaim. It really comes down to the likelihood of Blues wanting to make a 1-1 trade so early in the game, and before roles have even been given. I am assuming, since everyone will have a power, that blues will be much stronger than greens. There is also a disparity between the number of powerful town roles (Blues) and scum in this game, and while I personally feel analysis is a far stronger tool, most of the TL towns I've been in have been reverent of Blue's power, often to the point of reliance (Eg: XXXV). So just applying metagame, it seems unusual a blue would be willing to put himself out there so quickly and prominently.
I see this either as a power move by the blues (as most people are assuming), or as a cunning play by scum. A lot of my suspicion comes from timing. Bum claimed before night 0 is over, and I would have trusted it a lot more if it was on Day 1, as he would have his role already. For example, bum could be scum, but conceivably a blue wouldn't bother to contest him until they get their roles, so they can use the weakest combination of role/player on their team to out him, which makes it harder for them, considering the amount of time bum has been uncontested, which can also be used for a WIFOM argument from him.
Kav on the other hand, has no real assurances that he is not scum. So far, his posting has seemed pro-town, but he hasn't really expounded on any of his views besides that he wants to stay alive to analyze and direct the town. I've had first-hand experience with him as mayor, working closely with him in XXXVI, so I know that he is a very capable and active player. Before I'd vote for him though, I'd need to hear more about what he'd do Day 1 lynch, and what other things he'd try to do with his longevity.
So, in short, I feel both Bum and Kav would make good mayors. Kav based on personal experience with him, and Bum on the condition of being blue. I'm still trying to evaluate the likelihood of a Night 0 blue claim though, because I really don't like the timing, and would like to see if there are counterclaims Day 1. Hopefully if Bum isn't blue, someone would eventually counterclaim, because blues wouldn't want to let scum become mayor. I also don't think the lack of Night 0 counterclaims really strengthens his claim in any way, because as I've said, blues probably wouldn't counterclaim until Day 1 anyways, when they can make a much better choice of counterclaiming player.
Notice one thing, the obvious fact was that bum *had* to be a blue, else the blue faction would have conterclaimed. However third party wiggles isn't afraid to push a anti-town agenda to further his own team. 3rd party wiggles isn't afraid to push his own plans, against the town. Also notice how a third party wiggles is really good at ending his post with dodging responsibility, his whole post casts doubts on bum, yet at the end of the post he backs down, while still supporting his agenda of getting his buddy elected.
Lets compare that to his first post this game where wiggles, pushes a anti-town agenda and at the end backs down to dodge responsibility. The similarity between these two posts is... stunning. For the sake of fairness lets look at what Wiggle's normal town play looks like, with a post from BCs Arkham Asylum, where wiggles was Zsasz a vigilante.
On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so let's get this started!
First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines.
A pro-town atmosphere
This normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things:
Promoting scum hunting.
Not having pointless arguments
Actively contributing
All that jazz
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important.
We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum.
Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia.
Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk.
Clues
There's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUSTMUSTMUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum.
Third Parties
Looking at the third parties, here's what we want:
-We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition.
This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game.
If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game? If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game?
Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling.
Lets look at the key differences between this type of early game post and wiggle's post in this game. What does it talk about? It talks about catching scum, about things that are relevant to the main objective, defeating the mafia. What does it do that the other post doesn't?
1.) It gives concrete, powerful advice about things that need to be said, and things that are important to avoding chaos. Is that even mentioned in his post here? Of course not, this game, he could care less about a good scum-hunting atmosphere, since all he has to do is *appear* town, the actual atmosphere is irrelevant, since if he can't find mafia he'll fabricate a case. The post from arkham is attempting to be helpful
2.)This post owns up to what it is trying to do, that is lead and organize the town, with no excuses made for it. Wiggles shows no hesitation, no "well, actually its ok if you bicker, that might help hunt scum too" in this post wiggles owns up to his post. there is no hesitation, just ownership
3.) He doesn't focus excessively on one topic he talks about a bunch of different things. He reveals his mind is not focused around a particular target, he covers everything unlike his post this game that focuses on the two elements that he is most focused on.
Wiggle's meta fits perfectly with the way third party wiggle plays, pushing his objectives while backtracking so it looks like he isn't. It looks nothing like his town meta, where he doesn't have a single minded focus, and actually owns up to his posts, while trying to propose things that are actually helpful, rather than a objectivity bad plan.
Sorry Jackal, but your meta read is wrong, Wiggles is a Horror, without a shadow of doubt.
There's a few glaring problems in this post about meta as well. In Insane 2, I was NOT a third party. Though it is entitled third party, the faction was more equivalent to a second mafia family, with a full roster of 4 players, PM rights, and equivalent abilities. Thus, that post is a bad example of trying to find something to compare when talking about third parties. The only games I have played as true third party, were the ones as Assassin, and as Serial Killer, which you dismiss in an attempt to try to find a post that better matches the one I made in this game, in which I am more akin to mafia, than a true third party.
As well, you do not take context into the quote you pulled from AA. In that game, nearly a third of the player base was completely new, with either 1 or no games played previously. Thus, a post such as that is necessary to give direction and promote a good atmosphere with newer players. This town is mostly made up of experienced players, so there isn't really a need to provide a generic post, because everyone should be experienced enough to realize what they need to do without having the same post regurgitated at the beginning of every game. So, instead of wasting time talking about things people should have learned after a couple games, I am able to jump straight into talking about the set-up.
Meta is normally a very weak argument to make against someone, and the fact that you use incorrect meta that doesn't take context into example doesn't sit well with me either. But, since you seem to love it so much, then you should be aware that if I'm called scum on Day 1, then I'm town, and if I'm not, then I'm mafia. This has been true for maybe the last 10 normal games I've played. As well, your case against me seems eerily similar to Drazerk's and Ghrur's from AA, calling me third party, because I deigned to discuss the third parties. I'm not going to rehash everything I wrote in that game in response, but I'll link their analysis so you can see the similarities: + Show Spoiler +
On July 19 2011 12:09 ghrur wrote: Hello fellow mafia players! I see you've all been discussing SS quite a lot. Allow me to introduce another candidate for the lynch. 2 candidates are better than one, and it'd be even better if we could force the mafia to choose. Without further ado, here I go.
VOTE WIGGLES
Drazerk was the first one to nominate this candidate. His analysis is here. + Show Spoiler +
On July 18 2011 21:13 Drazerk wrote: Time to actually go to work I guess.
Let's start with our always scum fellow Mr. Wiggles shall we?
Now we could say wiggles has a track record of being scum but the problem is his scum play has been pretty bland, In fact in RTM / WaW2 we was able to pick him out as scum just because of how little effort he puts in when being scum. Now when I read the thread this morning I was pretty much blown away by how much effort he was putting in, Its almost as if he did a 180 and is trying his best to not follow his scum meta by promoting a pro town atmosphere.
On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so let's get this started!
First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines.
A pro-town atmosphere
This normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things:
Promoting scum hunting.
Not having pointless arguments
Actively contributing
All that jazz
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important.
We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum.
Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia.
Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk.
Clues
There's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUSTMUSTMUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum.
Third Parties
Looking at the third parties, here's what we want:
-We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition.
This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game.
If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game? If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game?
Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling.
You will see a post like that at the start of every game, In fact it's pretty much one of the easiest ways to gain townie points as the post is pretty much common sense followed with some "weak" policies.
Notice how wiggles keeps mentioning the third parties? + Show Spoiler +
On July 18 2011 10:37 deconduo wrote: I agree that Batman killing the Joker is the ideal situation. However I would regard all 3rd party, including Batman, as anti-town. They constitute 3 extra KP each night which results in a faster lylo and less DT checks and clues. If we catch one they should be lynched. None of this 'Keep me alive and I'll help town' crap.
Given the size of the game and the heavy activity requirement there will be a lot of reading to do. There will certainly be people attempting to just pass with the bare minimum of posts. These people should be scrutinised intensly, and lynched if any clues point towards them.
Mhmm, if we catch them, we should lynch them. However, how can we catch them? The only ways I can see, are through just behavioural analysis, and also clue analysis. That's why I say, that if someone is acting like an SK, we might as well lynch them. However, SKs normally act like lurkers, or are scummy, from my experience. So, that means the batman should be shooting into lurkers and scummy people. On the flip-side though, Ra'al is going to be shooting into pro-town players, as Batman wants to try to look like a green, most likely.
The priority is:
joker>batman>ra'al
Because killing up the chain, removes the players below.
So, I guess you're right, that we should always kill third-parties, to remove their KP. However, the priority should be on the joker, as he will most likely appear scummiest, and also his death removes all third parties.
The constant talk of game mechanics makes it seem like he is pro town when he is pretty much posting fluff at this point he just seems to want to enter lylo later when he has established himself as a town player.
Shall we go into his other posts about game mechanics? + Show Spoiler +
On July 18 2011 10:57 redFF wrote: If you clue analyse backing it up with some other form of analysis or evidence can help, but isn't necessary. If you see a clue don't be afraid to point it out.
Unless its like, x is a detective, then don't point it out lol. On the whole I think relying on clue analysis is pretty terrible though so i won't be basing any of my voting around some vague clue which could be pointing to 10 different people.
Clue analysis can be strong, and also, newer players are sometimes easily swayed by it, because it seems like an "objective" form of scum-hunting. I'm saying, before pointing out any clues, look at the person who was killed, and the posting history of the player you think the clue is pointing to.
For example, if they killed a mafia, and look super pro-town, what would be the possible benefits of pointing it out?
However, if someone killed town, and look scummy, then make an actual analysis and then attach the perceived clue to it.
No one should be lynched only on clues, and clues shouldn't just be looked at in a vacuum.
On July 18 2011 11:02 CreamyButter wrote: Maybe it's because I only have 35 posts, but 5 posts a day seems like a hell of a lot, and I'm predicting a ton of spam/filler posts just to hit the minimum (I'm kind of freaking out about getting modkilled if I forget one evening lol). Maybe we should tag our posts like /analysis or /filler? Since I feel like if people are all forced to make 5 posts a day, there might be a lot of red herrings from tired townies who just want the day to end, and this way we can sort of manually adjust the posting minimum to like 3 "real" posts a day. Or 8 or whatever.
@Curu Give me a sec to think about it. From what I understand the mafia just sort of chill, analyze/snipe blues, give confusing/chaos-inspiring analysis, and attempt to plant themselves into town circles. Not sure if there are any strategies that would be particular to this game yet, but will totally get back to you on that.
Also I'm sure this is unintentional, but just to make sure,
There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit.
It's a minimum, not a limit, right?
Yeah, it's a minimum, I just used the word limit for some reason =/
If you are being active and playing the game, you shouldn't really have any problem making the 5 post minimum.
For example, you already made 2 decent posts, and still have almost 70 hours to make the other three to avoid mod-kill.
Also, filler should mostly be avoided if possible, as there are always other things to post besides useless stuff. For example, you can comment on other people's analysis, on the voting patterns or bandwagons that are going to appear, on how people are acting or trying to manipulate town, etc. There's lots to talk about. :p
On July 18 2011 11:00 redFF wrote: And regarding blacks I feel it is best to ignore them. Usually I don't really like lynching blacks, but since they all have 1kp a night and will be shooting into town I say if we find them we should be lynching them.
Im going to be treating all the black roles as serial killers.
I disagree about ignoring them. Effort should definitely be made in finding and lynching them, especially the Joker and/or Batman.
Agreed. Together the third party hold the same amount of KP as the entire mafia, and based on probability, are more like to kill town than mafia too.
On July 18 2011 11:41 Curu wrote: Just a lovely note to our lovely DTs out there:
Never check a man who is a very likely lynch. If you find a guilty, well he's getting killed anyways. If you find an innocent, then you shouldn't be outing yourself to save him anyways unless there are very few players left in the game. The Godfather/third parties also give innocent checks.
To our lovely Vigilantes:
Likewise, if someone is declared a policy lynch or something of that nature, it is far better to have our Vigilantes shoot them instead. The lynch process gives us no information when reds can easily bandwagon lynch someone. Remember that the lynch is a process for finding information and connections as well, not just a simple kill.
Also, to add on to advice for DTs, especially as there are a lot of newer players present, always try to form a case around a player based on analysis if you get a guilty check. Do not just claim. Claiming early is never a good thing, as a 1-1 trade with mafia benefits them more than town.
On July 18 2011 11:51 Zona wrote: ^ Well, a "1-1 trade" benefits town a TON more than the mafia, if the town is vanilla. But a DT trade for a mafia is a poor one.
Oops, I might have screwed up the logic, haha. Been playing scum for too long. O.o
Green for mafia is an awesome trade, as we outnumber the mafia.
1-1 with a DT isn't great early on, especially depending on who the scum is. For example, if you checked random lurker A and they returned red, try to get them shot or lynched, don't claim. Trading a DT for a red lurker isn't a very good trade, when we can get additional use out of the DT. Use your discretion, but I think making a push for a lynch based on analysis should be the first step taken, before any kind of claim.
So essentially most of his posts are either about, The third parties or how to deal with clues.
He has actually done little scum hunting which is a typical trait of his scum play.
In my opinion Wiggles is trying very hard to not look like his regular scum meta by "Appearing" to put in effort but with the little scum hunting / FoSing from him he seems to have just concentrated on the mechanics side of the game (Basically fluff) and promote his "Town atmosphere" the best way he can.
FoS on Wiggles
##Vote: Mr. Wiggles
Now, while I have read it, I came to the conclusion of my own accord. I will most likely bring up similar points, but I shall try to add new material as well.
First off, if you notice, Wiggles has not given up ANY information. His posts consist of general advice, "null tell" posts, defenses, and future promises. They all serve a purpose, if he were mafia. General advice makes him look town. Null tell is an easy way to write something off while seeming logical and townie. Defenses = I DON'T WANT TO GET LYNCHED. Future promises mean nothing except that he gets to hide his current information. What's lacking is a stance, a thought, a suspicion, anything concrete to show he's actually scum hunting. Mafia moves right here, gentlemen. Or, you know, SK moves.
Now, if you were to look through wiggle's posts, you'll notice that in his very first discussion of mechanics/generalities, he goes in depth into third party thinking. He also seems to be promoting the bats. Notice: + Show Spoiler +
So, that means the batman should be shooting into lurkers and scummy people. On the flip-side though, Ra'al is going to be shooting into pro-town players, as Batman wants to try to look like a green, most likely.
The priority is:
joker>batman>ra'al
Because killing up the chain, removes the players below.
So, I guess you're right, that we should always kill third-parties, to remove their KP. However, the priority should be on the joker, as he will most likely appear scummiest, and also his death removes all third parties.
"So, I guess you're right" seems like a begrudging answer. He didn't want to admit it. "batman shooting into lurkers and scummy people" seems to be promoting the bats. Notice also how he's analyzed the likely behavior of theese characters already. This indicates a lot of thinking about these roles. This makes me inclined to believe he's Bats, or at least an SK.
based on probability, are more like to kill town than mafia too.
My god. He's even thought about third party probabilities. I'm wondering if he means cost/benefit probabilities or just hey, 3/4th = town and less than 1/4th = mafia. :/ If only he specified. but then, that'd be too much info wouldn't it?
Now, around 7/18 13:14 TL time, something interesting happens. Pyo softly pressures Wiggles. Wiggle's response? A paragraph, providing meta-game proof that his actions are a "null-tell." See here. + Show Spoiler +
Meh, it's a null-tell again. Examples, GM in Real-Time Mafia, Kavdragon in Pick Your Power Insane. Both making long posts trying to direct town at the beginning, both town. Also, if you think my post is spam, please point out how. If you read it, I specifically say I'm not going to write a general how to play town guide, just give a little bit of general advice against what's made town lose in about three of the last four games I've played, and then talked about how to use clues properly and that killing Joker is a high priority for town. It's not even that massive either, haha.
The problem here is that there was in no way ANY threat towards him. I would shrug it off. Why does it matter? I see this as over-defensive. An act of Mafia/SK. I called Curu out on something similar, and I'm calling Wiggles out on this now. Pyo continues accusing, but never voting, to put on pressure. Wiggles starts getting angsty, defensive, and even a bit upset I dare say. Notice the ad-homs coming out. + Show Spoiler +
Are you sure about that? I'm starting to question if you read posts or just skim through them.
There's no reason to do that at all. Name calling creates chaos and strife. We don't need that sort of atmosphere. I prefer logical to the emotional. I guess SKs/Mafia prefer different.
That quote happened around 7/18 15:45. Wiggles doesn't post again until 7/19 2:16. Looking at the big picture of the day, Wiggles has done absolutely nothing. Generic advice and defense. Great. How useful. But he seems like town! No, no he doesn't.
By the time Wiggles comes back, discussion has already taken place on new lynch candidates. New suspects. New post analyses to be done. Does Wiggles do any of that? No! He doesn't scum hunt! He jumps STRAIGHT to defending himself from Drazerk's accusation. Let's take a look. + Show Spoiler +
I'm gonna address the case against me pretty quickly, but basically I'm being accused of talking about game mechanics for the first two hours of the game, and not scumhunting. (Game started 10KST, last quoted post at 11:57KST). This accusation is true, but shouldn't mark me as scummy, given that it's pretty hard to scum hunt in the first two hours of the game, as most people have yet to post, or have very few posts. Mechanics are just a starting point to get people talking at the beginning of the game, as there is very little else to talk about. Scumhunting begins from there.
Notice, he says it's only 2 hours due to the last quoted post. Hahaha, he doesn't even try to give correct info. He had, in actuallity, 5 hours and 45 minutes worth of material to try and scum hunt off of, and THEN another 16 hours and 16 minutes of information to add in something with his defense. What does he do? He says he only had 2 hours. He LIED to strengthen his defense. Scum move, yes? The rest of his post talks about how the game started. Yeah, we all read that. That's not new information. Where's the scum hunting wiggles?
Palmar calls him out on this. Palmar even stated there was no threat, and Wiggles didn't even need to defend. Oh, but defend he did. Just like earlier, with Pyo, he jumps on the defense and never attacks. He hints at attacks, like at Palmar (saying Palmar bandwagons) and SS (agreeing with Curu that SS lied), but he gives no analysis and he does not VOTE. HE'S NOT VOTING! He says Palmar is contradictory, and SS seems really suspicious and contradicted himself, yet he votes for neither. WHY? Because he doesn't want to commit to anything. No votes, no trails. Just soft hints. He's afraid to be wrong, to stick his head out, to provide information.
I can do clue analysis if you want. The only problem with your plan though, is that the clues only point to specific mafia, not all of them, so there won't always be clue analysis available for each lynch. A lack of clue analysis is not absolving.
Look. Once again he wants to do something without doing anything. Clue analysis doesn't need to point to anyone. It'll be vague. It'll be part of a team. You'll hide your opinion. It's IN THE FUTURE. Once again, this is not scum hunting. This is not taking a stance. This is being as unhelpful and uninformative as possible. Scum/SK play.
So, after Wiggles stated that "there's a lot to talk about," that "he's re-reading the thread and taking notes on players," and that "we should keep a pro-town atmosphere," he has done none of those things. What a contradiction. I guess he's right that "scumhunting doesn't magically appear," especially not from scum.
Join me, and vote Wiggles. Let's break up the bandwagons. Let's force him to take a stance. Let's force Mafia's hand and get them out amongst the townies. Most of all, let's lynch this killer.
Ferryman, if you are new, then welcome to mafia! You have a bright future here, and if you're town mafia will probably want to hit you n1.
In this case though, I think you might be right but lynching palmar is a better move here. Sir Jesse Wiggles ESQ (duke of yorkshire) is a notoriously difficult person to read at the best of times because he plays so close to the chest, and I've written my share of analysis on him and been wrong every time.
That being said, your evidence makes a lot of sense, and if we don't have any other leads tomorrow I'd be totally happy gettin' wiggy wit' it. But right now, palmar is a better lynch because
A) His response to the FOS has been very scummy B) The slip thing I mentioned earlier C) It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.
Keep your eye on Wiggles and if you find anything else we'll act on it. For now though, Palmar is scummier than wiggles and I'd rather lynch him,
Just some advice: the first post you posted felt to me like more of a pressure post (ie it wasn't very convincing) but the second one (the meta one) was much more convincing (wiggles rather comprehensive response notwithstanding).
Let me awnser your points, in green. I'm not going to have a back and forth where we go wall of text vs wall of text, I'm going to make my points and leave them at that, unless new evidence is brought up.
On August 24 2011 09:26 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Hooray, there's discussion.
So we can have discussion, I'm going to respond to the case against me, which for once seems thought out for a day 1 case. My responses in Blue.
On August 24 2011 05:38 TheFerryman wrote: Ladies and Gentelmen. The Eldricht horror has just successfully ousted himself. Well done wiggles.
Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is the horror afraid of? Two things, 1.) the lynch, as it kills him and makes him incapable of winning, and conversely town losing too fast, since then he won't be able to infect everyone in time. This means that the horror is going to try to present an organized, pro-town stance and appearance, so expect things like long policy/mechanics posts and attempts at directing town attention early in the game, and later focus on scumhunting, probably successfully getting scum lynched. He obviously wants to draw scum hits, since they increase the number of insane people in the town. All this means he is going to try to *appear* town, while pushing to resolve his fear #2
Making posts talking about the set-up is the best way to get people talking about the game. It provides an entry point for discussion, which is normally sorely lacking in games that start on Day 1. Before my post, all people were talking about was basically fluff, and completely useless from a scum-hunting point of view. Basically, you got people making terrible votes that don't even generate pressure, and a bunch of OMGUS. I even made fun of this by randomly voting for Eiii and posting the song "Under Pressure" (Haha haha haha :p)
So, by talking about the set-up, we can begin to gather information, see where people stand. Anti-town players are going to try to push for something anti-town while attempting to make it appear pro-town, or divert town attention to something meaningless. Honestly, I was surprised that no one else had attempted to talk about the set-up, because that's the easiest way to start a conversation.
Also, any decent player is going to open with a general post, and then scum hunt. It doesn't make sense to do otherwise, and if you are new, then you too suffer from that terrible disease of "You must scum hunt when there is no content to do so from", for an example of this, check out Arkham Asylum, which you've claimed to have read, and that I'll be referencing again.
Talking about the setup is of dubious value, however I will grant you, it is a good way to start talking, I'm not bashing giving material to talk about, or talking about the setup. I'm saying that those usually pro-town actions are a null read, since the EH is going to be doing so as well, what I am taking note of is that the horror is going to take a town leadership position if he wants to be successful, therefor people who step up to a position of leadership come under immediate questioning
2.) The psychologist, as every night the psychologist is alive the horror's wincondition becomes a little harder to carry out. For this reason expect plans that involve the psychologist claiming, and plans that require mass claims. Remember the sooner the psychologist is dead, the sooner the horror can carry out his wincondition. + Show Spoiler +
I never asked the psychologist to claim. I considered it, then decided it was a bad idea. You're putting words in my mouth -_-. Also note no plans about mass-claiming. at this point I haven't yet talked about you, I'm taking about how a smart EH is going to be playing, but you do propose a plan in which the psychologist claims. Even if you back off of it in the same post.
With that in mind, lets take a good look at Wiggles first post of the game. My comments in spoilers inside the quote
On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote: ##Vote: Eiii Where you at?
Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity.
Right here, he is already downplaying the danger the horror poses to the town, I'm betting that if he is ousted later in the game he'll try explain how lynching the horror is a "waste of a lynch" when we could be hitting "real scum". Also, notice how he is *already* taking about the psychologist. Its the number one thing on his mind. He couldn't even get past the first paragraph without worrying about it
What danger does the Horror pose to town? He has no KP, and the only effect he has is that the psychologist dies when he comes into contact with him (And the psychologist is a role that focuses entirely on the horror mechanic), and he screws up our medic and mafia KP. He poses no direct danger to us, and is only dangerous in that he can end the game early if he achieves his win-con. However, his win condition won't come into effect until at least day three, simply due to the somewhat slow rate of conversion. This means that it is relatively safe to ignore him for day 1 at least, because he has the power to do nothing to town. In fact, I would say that the people hunting for the horror are more likely to be mafia, because it provides them an out in terms of analysis because they can scum hunt for something that is actually anti-town, not mafia, and that will give them town cred.
We cannot win while the horror is alive, the horror makes our medic unreliable, the horror can cause us to insta lose in several situations. I say the sooner we take it out the better, no? Also I like how you discreetly conclude that making a case against the horror is scummy, I approve of the hidden accusation. True, we can ignore him for a day or two, but if he is staring us in the face, then we should take him out
So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well)
Look at this magnificent plan to get his hands on the psychologist, for a 1/13 chance of losing outright he gets to kill his #1 threat to victory. Plus, he is going to be so "pro-town" the worrying about the psychologist checking *him* won't be an issue. Look at point 1 and 2 above, here is wiggles, promoting a plan that reveals the psychologist yet appears pro-town. this is the giveaway that wiggles has only one focus. Notice how the mafia is only mentioned in passing and the medic isn't even a concern. Its because to wiggles those things aren't important, in his mind those take second place to the much more relevant psychologist that stands in his way, and of course to appearing town
You have to take posts as a whole, keep reading...
As well, why is the medic a concern when talking specifically about the horror and the psychologist? The medic does not effect that dynamic, while the mafia can by shooting the psychologist. Nice try to make me look like I'm focusing too much on the psychologist, when he's the only role that's relevant when talking about the horror.
correct, you are focusing on talking about two roles who you *just admitted* we don't need to worry about, yet you are focusing on them? Also, the medic + mafia *are* relevant to the psychologist EH interaction, as the mafia can choose to shoot the psychologist, the medic can protect, the medic starts going heywire when he interacts with the EH, all of which are at least worth mentioning in passing
There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as.
Pros:
-Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary)
Cons:
-Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target.
Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is.
and now he is backtracking, while still pushing for the psychologist to "breadcrumb", which wiggles, our mega clue master will be able to catch. Notice how he isn't even supporting his own plan, its a "point of discussion". In other words, he is hoping a foolish townie is going to pick it up and run with it, or even better a stupid psychologist is going to think "huh, this isn't bad, I better do as wiggles suggested". A real townie, someone who cares about whether the town loses or wins is not going to propose what he considers a bad plan, especially not a veteran player like wiggles, who knows that as a rule of thumb, towns are stupid and tend to subscribe to bad ideas. BY proposing a poor idea as a "point of discussion" wiggles is pushing all the objectives of a smart horror.
Not backtracking. I came up with the idea of having the psychologist claim, but then decided that it was bad, and said so in my post. However, instead of not posting at all, I decided that it would be better to just post it anyways to provide a point for discussion, which had been very much absent until that point. Only an IDIOT would have read that post, where I say "I don't think it's really worth it", and then decide to claim Psychologist in thread. I was actually hoping that someone would try to argue against what I said, and push for the plan to be implemented, because there would be high chance of them being the horror (not a dumb townie). Unfortunately, no one took the bait.
So, you're putting words in my mouth again to try to push my lynch. I did not suggest that the psychologist should claim, in fact I said that I think it's a bad idea. As well, if you read my further posts, I said that the psychologist should breadcrumb, but that the rest of town should breadcrumb in that case as well, because then mafia can't just find the breadcrumbs and blue-snipe. I suggest a plan of obfuscation, that will provide the ability to easily reveal targets on flip or on claim, as opposed to opening up the avenue of fake-claiming without prior clues for the mafia. Also, such breadcrumbs should only be for names of targets, not the actual action as well.
Yes, you are backtracking, proposing a plan and then saying its terrible, don't do it, doesn't actually generate discussion, in fact it allows scum to happily hide by saying things like "that is stupid" and "dont do that". I would argue that it is better to keep doing the rtidiculous Random Vote than giving mafia such a prime spot to hide. Not only are you pushing a stupid plan (and you know better) you are trying to hide it with the guise of discussion. As far as it would take an idiot to claim, I point you to the rule of thumb. "Don't rely on townies having a brain bigger than your thumb". If you really wanted to start discussion, you could have talked about how the mafia is going to be "scumhunting" for the EH to look pro-town, discussed why the EH is a risk, talked about possible EH strategies. There are other things you can discuss without proposing an awful plan, that lets the mafia blend in.
So, is it better to post something, that you know is a bad idea, in order to promote discussion, or is it better to post nothing at all? Ferryman seems to believe that it is better to not post, or that someone posting and trying to generate discussion is anti-town. He twists what I wrote a lot, by saying that I'm trying to push forward this plan, when in reality, I myself wrote that it wasn't that great. As well, instead of discussing the merits of my ideas with me, the point of my post, he instead simply attacks me as the horror, which does nothing to help us choose the most optimal route of play.
I basically already addressed this in the above green text. Yes its better not to discuss than to post such a bad plan that the mafia can look uber-town for bashing it. Please don't tell me there aren't other things you could have talked about, because that frankly untrue. I am helping pick the most optimal route of play, that would be play normally and lynch wiggles the EH. There is literaly nothing to discuss about your plan. I can talk about exactly how sucky it is, but that won't get a mafia on the lynch plataform
So, Jackal, meta makes you think wiggles is not a 3rd party, does it? Lets look at the a game where wiggle has been third party in the past, and compare his behavior in that game to his behavior here. (I am disregarding the game where he was an assassin, since in that game his goal was not to appear pro-town, but rather maintain a scummy profile to avoid being shot by the mafia, and survivor mafia, where he was the only anti-town player in an open PM game)
Lets take a look at a post in Insane mafia 2, hosted by LSB, where wiggles was part of a third party faction. Here is a sample post. Some background, for those who don't feel like figuring out what happened. Bumatlarge had just claimed to be part of the town aligned circle of blues, who all knew each other and each other's alignment, in a bid to gain mayorship, no one counterclaimed him, which basically meant he was confirmed town, and a dt to boot. Kavdragon, a member of wiggle's third party team was also vying for the mayorship. Now read the post.
On March 25 2011 05:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so here's my thoughts on the mayorship:
For me, this is really between Kav and bum.
At the moment, I'm trying to figure out how much I want to trust bum's blue claim. So far, he is uncontested, which possibly bodes well for him being a true blue. However, as others have stated, and I've been considering, there is still the possibility of his being scum, even with no counterclaim. It really comes down to the likelihood of Blues wanting to make a 1-1 trade so early in the game, and before roles have even been given. I am assuming, since everyone will have a power, that blues will be much stronger than greens. There is also a disparity between the number of powerful town roles (Blues) and scum in this game, and while I personally feel analysis is a far stronger tool, most of the TL towns I've been in have been reverent of Blue's power, often to the point of reliance (Eg: XXXV). So just applying metagame, it seems unusual a blue would be willing to put himself out there so quickly and prominently.
I see this either as a power move by the blues (as most people are assuming), or as a cunning play by scum. A lot of my suspicion comes from timing. Bum claimed before night 0 is over, and I would have trusted it a lot more if it was on Day 1, as he would have his role already. For example, bum could be scum, but conceivably a blue wouldn't bother to contest him until they get their roles, so they can use the weakest combination of role/player on their team to out him, which makes it harder for them, considering the amount of time bum has been uncontested, which can also be used for a WIFOM argument from him.
Kav on the other hand, has no real assurances that he is not scum. So far, his posting has seemed pro-town, but he hasn't really expounded on any of his views besides that he wants to stay alive to analyze and direct the town. I've had first-hand experience with him as mayor, working closely with him in XXXVI, so I know that he is a very capable and active player. Before I'd vote for him though, I'd need to hear more about what he'd do Day 1 lynch, and what other things he'd try to do with his longevity.
So, in short, I feel both Bum and Kav would make good mayors. Kav based on personal experience with him, and Bum on the condition of being blue. I'm still trying to evaluate the likelihood of a Night 0 blue claim though, because I really don't like the timing, and would like to see if there are counterclaims Day 1. Hopefully if Bum isn't blue, someone would eventually counterclaim, because blues wouldn't want to let scum become mayor. I also don't think the lack of Night 0 counterclaims really strengthens his claim in any way, because as I've said, blues probably wouldn't counterclaim until Day 1 anyways, when they can make a much better choice of counterclaiming player.
Notice one thing, the obvious fact was that bum *had* to be a blue, else the blue faction would have conterclaimed. However third party wiggles isn't afraid to push a anti-town agenda to further his own team. 3rd party wiggles isn't afraid to push his own plans, against the town. Also notice how a third party wiggles is really good at ending his post with dodging responsibility, his whole post casts doubts on bum, yet at the end of the post he backs down, while still supporting his agenda of getting his buddy elected.
Lets compare that to his first post this game where wiggles, pushes a anti-town agenda and at the end backs down to dodge responsibility. The similarity between these two posts is... stunning. For the sake of fairness lets look at what Wiggle's normal town play looks like, with a post from BCs Arkham Asylum, where wiggles was Zsasz a vigilante.
On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so let's get this started!
First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines.
A pro-town atmosphere
This normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things:
Promoting scum hunting.
Not having pointless arguments
Actively contributing
All that jazz
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important.
We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum.
Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia.
Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk.
Clues
There's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUSTMUSTMUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum.
Third Parties
Looking at the third parties, here's what we want:
-We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition.
This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game.
If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game? If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game?
Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling.
Lets look at the key differences between this type of early game post and wiggle's post in this game. What does it talk about? It talks about catching scum, about things that are relevant to the main objective, defeating the mafia. What does it do that the other post doesn't?
1.) It gives concrete, powerful advice about things that need to be said, and things that are important to avoding chaos. Is that even mentioned in his post here? Of course not, this game, he could care less about a good scum-hunting atmosphere, since all he has to do is *appear* town, the actual atmosphere is irrelevant, since if he can't find mafia he'll fabricate a case. The post from arkham is attempting to be helpful
2.)This post owns up to what it is trying to do, that is lead and organize the town, with no excuses made for it. Wiggles shows no hesitation, no "well, actually its ok if you bicker, that might help hunt scum too" in this post wiggles owns up to his post. there is no hesitation, just ownership
3.) He doesn't focus excessively on one topic he talks about a bunch of different things. He reveals his mind is not focused around a particular target, he covers everything unlike his post this game that focuses on the two elements that he is most focused on.
Wiggle's meta fits perfectly with the way third party wiggle plays, pushing his objectives while backtracking so it looks like he isn't. It looks nothing like his town meta, where he doesn't have a single minded focus, and actually owns up to his posts, while trying to propose things that are actually helpful, rather than a objectivity bad plan.
Sorry Jackal, but your meta read is wrong, Wiggles is a Horror, without a shadow of doubt.
There's a few glaring problems in this post about meta as well. In Insane 2, I was NOT a third party. Though it is entitled third party, the faction was more equivalent to a second mafia family, with a full roster of 4 players, PM rights, and equivalent abilities. Thus, that post is a bad example of trying to find something to compare when talking about third parties. The only games I have played as true third party, were the ones as Assassin, and as Serial Killer, which you dismiss in an attempt to try to find a post that better matches the one I made in this game, in which I am more akin to mafia, than a true third party. Lol, awesome try here, nice effort, but you were a bulletproof faction that couldn't win if the mafia won. Much like the EH is a bulletproof person who can't win if the mafia wins. Yes, I discarded survivor, because it was frankly a crappy game, although if you push me I will go back and find your "clue analysis" from that game in which you *also* demonstrate the backing off trait
As well, you do not take context into the quote you pulled from AA. In that game, nearly a third of the player base was completely new, with either 1 or no games played previously. Thus, a post such as that is necessary to give direction and promote a good atmosphere with newer players. This town is mostly made up of experienced players, so there isn't really a need to provide a generic post, because everyone should be experienced enough to realize what they need to do without having the same post regurgitated at the beginning of every game. So, instead of wasting time talking about things people should have learned after a couple games, I am able to jump straight into talking about the set-up.
Here we continue to misinterpret what I am saying,I'm not saying you need to post generic advice, but you need to discuss things of relevance or usefulness. not a plan so bad scum can happily sheep with the "its so awful" crowd. Your plan is like when people choose to discuss what blues should do in vague terms "medics should protect pro-town players". This allows scum to blend in. Again, you know better. Also the thrust of my "meta" argument is that you back off and deny responsibility for your ideas as third party but not as town. Compare the two posts, not a single word of doubt in the town one, a "both candidates... etc, etc" in the second. And then compare the one in this game "its a bad plan, also you might think about bread crumbing, not that I am going to take a stance on that mind you"
Meta is normally a very weak argument to make against someone, and the fact that you use incorrect meta that doesn't take context into example doesn't sit well with me either. But, since you seem to love it so much, then you should be aware that if I'm called scum on Day 1, then I'm town, and if I'm not, then I'm mafia. This has been true for maybe the last 10 normal games I've played. As well, your case against me seems eerily similar to Drazerk's and Ghrur's from AA, calling me third party, because I deigned to discuss the third parties. I'm not going to rehash everything I wrote in that game in response, but I'll link their analysis so you can see the similarities:
Completely irrelevant post you attached here. Glad you included it. Shows nothing, and fails to disprove the points I'm making. Meta arguments aren't "weak", most people just fail at understanding how they work. If you've read Ver's guide, you would know this. + Show Spoiler +
On July 19 2011 12:09 ghrur wrote: Hello fellow mafia players! I see you've all been discussing SS quite a lot. Allow me to introduce another candidate for the lynch. 2 candidates are better than one, and it'd be even better if we could force the mafia to choose. Without further ado, here I go.
VOTE WIGGLES
Drazerk was the first one to nominate this candidate. His analysis is here. + Show Spoiler +
On July 18 2011 21:13 Drazerk wrote: Time to actually go to work I guess.
Let's start with our always scum fellow Mr. Wiggles shall we?
Now we could say wiggles has a track record of being scum but the problem is his scum play has been pretty bland, In fact in RTM / WaW2 we was able to pick him out as scum just because of how little effort he puts in when being scum. Now when I read the thread this morning I was pretty much blown away by how much effort he was putting in, Its almost as if he did a 180 and is trying his best to not follow his scum meta by promoting a pro town atmosphere.
On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so let's get this started!
First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines.
A pro-town atmosphere
This normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things:
Promoting scum hunting.
Not having pointless arguments
Actively contributing
All that jazz
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important.
We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum.
Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia.
Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk.
Clues
There's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUSTMUSTMUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum.
Third Parties
Looking at the third parties, here's what we want:
-We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition.
This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game.
If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game? If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game?
Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling.
You will see a post like that at the start of every game, In fact it's pretty much one of the easiest ways to gain townie points as the post is pretty much common sense followed with some "weak" policies.
Notice how wiggles keeps mentioning the third parties? + Show Spoiler +
On July 18 2011 10:37 deconduo wrote: I agree that Batman killing the Joker is the ideal situation. However I would regard all 3rd party, including Batman, as anti-town. They constitute 3 extra KP each night which results in a faster lylo and less DT checks and clues. If we catch one they should be lynched. None of this 'Keep me alive and I'll help town' crap.
Given the size of the game and the heavy activity requirement there will be a lot of reading to do. There will certainly be people attempting to just pass with the bare minimum of posts. These people should be scrutinised intensly, and lynched if any clues point towards them.
Mhmm, if we catch them, we should lynch them. However, how can we catch them? The only ways I can see, are through just behavioural analysis, and also clue analysis. That's why I say, that if someone is acting like an SK, we might as well lynch them. However, SKs normally act like lurkers, or are scummy, from my experience. So, that means the batman should be shooting into lurkers and scummy people. On the flip-side though, Ra'al is going to be shooting into pro-town players, as Batman wants to try to look like a green, most likely.
The priority is:
joker>batman>ra'al
Because killing up the chain, removes the players below.
So, I guess you're right, that we should always kill third-parties, to remove their KP. However, the priority should be on the joker, as he will most likely appear scummiest, and also his death removes all third parties.
The constant talk of game mechanics makes it seem like he is pro town when he is pretty much posting fluff at this point he just seems to want to enter lylo later when he has established himself as a town player.
Shall we go into his other posts about game mechanics? + Show Spoiler +
On July 18 2011 10:57 redFF wrote: If you clue analyse backing it up with some other form of analysis or evidence can help, but isn't necessary. If you see a clue don't be afraid to point it out.
Unless its like, x is a detective, then don't point it out lol. On the whole I think relying on clue analysis is pretty terrible though so i won't be basing any of my voting around some vague clue which could be pointing to 10 different people.
Clue analysis can be strong, and also, newer players are sometimes easily swayed by it, because it seems like an "objective" form of scum-hunting. I'm saying, before pointing out any clues, look at the person who was killed, and the posting history of the player you think the clue is pointing to.
For example, if they killed a mafia, and look super pro-town, what would be the possible benefits of pointing it out?
However, if someone killed town, and look scummy, then make an actual analysis and then attach the perceived clue to it.
No one should be lynched only on clues, and clues shouldn't just be looked at in a vacuum.
On July 18 2011 11:02 CreamyButter wrote: Maybe it's because I only have 35 posts, but 5 posts a day seems like a hell of a lot, and I'm predicting a ton of spam/filler posts just to hit the minimum (I'm kind of freaking out about getting modkilled if I forget one evening lol). Maybe we should tag our posts like /analysis or /filler? Since I feel like if people are all forced to make 5 posts a day, there might be a lot of red herrings from tired townies who just want the day to end, and this way we can sort of manually adjust the posting minimum to like 3 "real" posts a day. Or 8 or whatever.
@Curu Give me a sec to think about it. From what I understand the mafia just sort of chill, analyze/snipe blues, give confusing/chaos-inspiring analysis, and attempt to plant themselves into town circles. Not sure if there are any strategies that would be particular to this game yet, but will totally get back to you on that.
Also I'm sure this is unintentional, but just to make sure,
There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit.
It's a minimum, not a limit, right?
Yeah, it's a minimum, I just used the word limit for some reason =/
If you are being active and playing the game, you shouldn't really have any problem making the 5 post minimum.
For example, you already made 2 decent posts, and still have almost 70 hours to make the other three to avoid mod-kill.
Also, filler should mostly be avoided if possible, as there are always other things to post besides useless stuff. For example, you can comment on other people's analysis, on the voting patterns or bandwagons that are going to appear, on how people are acting or trying to manipulate town, etc. There's lots to talk about. :p
On July 18 2011 11:00 redFF wrote: And regarding blacks I feel it is best to ignore them. Usually I don't really like lynching blacks, but since they all have 1kp a night and will be shooting into town I say if we find them we should be lynching them.
Im going to be treating all the black roles as serial killers.
I disagree about ignoring them. Effort should definitely be made in finding and lynching them, especially the Joker and/or Batman.
Agreed. Together the third party hold the same amount of KP as the entire mafia, and based on probability, are more like to kill town than mafia too.
On July 18 2011 11:41 Curu wrote: Just a lovely note to our lovely DTs out there:
Never check a man who is a very likely lynch. If you find a guilty, well he's getting killed anyways. If you find an innocent, then you shouldn't be outing yourself to save him anyways unless there are very few players left in the game. The Godfather/third parties also give innocent checks.
To our lovely Vigilantes:
Likewise, if someone is declared a policy lynch or something of that nature, it is far better to have our Vigilantes shoot them instead. The lynch process gives us no information when reds can easily bandwagon lynch someone. Remember that the lynch is a process for finding information and connections as well, not just a simple kill.
Also, to add on to advice for DTs, especially as there are a lot of newer players present, always try to form a case around a player based on analysis if you get a guilty check. Do not just claim. Claiming early is never a good thing, as a 1-1 trade with mafia benefits them more than town.
On July 18 2011 11:51 Zona wrote: ^ Well, a "1-1 trade" benefits town a TON more than the mafia, if the town is vanilla. But a DT trade for a mafia is a poor one.
Oops, I might have screwed up the logic, haha. Been playing scum for too long. O.o
Green for mafia is an awesome trade, as we outnumber the mafia.
1-1 with a DT isn't great early on, especially depending on who the scum is. For example, if you checked random lurker A and they returned red, try to get them shot or lynched, don't claim. Trading a DT for a red lurker isn't a very good trade, when we can get additional use out of the DT. Use your discretion, but I think making a push for a lynch based on analysis should be the first step taken, before any kind of claim.
So essentially most of his posts are either about, The third parties or how to deal with clues.
He has actually done little scum hunting which is a typical trait of his scum play.
In my opinion Wiggles is trying very hard to not look like his regular scum meta by "Appearing" to put in effort but with the little scum hunting / FoSing from him he seems to have just concentrated on the mechanics side of the game (Basically fluff) and promote his "Town atmosphere" the best way he can.
FoS on Wiggles
##Vote: Mr. Wiggles
Now, while I have read it, I came to the conclusion of my own accord. I will most likely bring up similar points, but I shall try to add new material as well.
First off, if you notice, Wiggles has not given up ANY information. His posts consist of general advice, "null tell" posts, defenses, and future promises. They all serve a purpose, if he were mafia. General advice makes him look town. Null tell is an easy way to write something off while seeming logical and townie. Defenses = I DON'T WANT TO GET LYNCHED. Future promises mean nothing except that he gets to hide his current information. What's lacking is a stance, a thought, a suspicion, anything concrete to show he's actually scum hunting. Mafia moves right here, gentlemen. Or, you know, SK moves.
Now, if you were to look through wiggle's posts, you'll notice that in his very first discussion of mechanics/generalities, he goes in depth into third party thinking. He also seems to be promoting the bats. Notice: + Show Spoiler +
So, that means the batman should be shooting into lurkers and scummy people. On the flip-side though, Ra'al is going to be shooting into pro-town players, as Batman wants to try to look like a green, most likely.
The priority is:
joker>batman>ra'al
Because killing up the chain, removes the players below.
So, I guess you're right, that we should always kill third-parties, to remove their KP. However, the priority should be on the joker, as he will most likely appear scummiest, and also his death removes all third parties.
"So, I guess you're right" seems like a begrudging answer. He didn't want to admit it. "batman shooting into lurkers and scummy people" seems to be promoting the bats. Notice also how he's analyzed the likely behavior of theese characters already. This indicates a lot of thinking about these roles. This makes me inclined to believe he's Bats, or at least an SK.
based on probability, are more like to kill town than mafia too.
My god. He's even thought about third party probabilities. I'm wondering if he means cost/benefit probabilities or just hey, 3/4th = town and less than 1/4th = mafia. :/ If only he specified. but then, that'd be too much info wouldn't it?
Now, around 7/18 13:14 TL time, something interesting happens. Pyo softly pressures Wiggles. Wiggle's response? A paragraph, providing meta-game proof that his actions are a "null-tell." See here. + Show Spoiler +
Meh, it's a null-tell again. Examples, GM in Real-Time Mafia, Kavdragon in Pick Your Power Insane. Both making long posts trying to direct town at the beginning, both town. Also, if you think my post is spam, please point out how. If you read it, I specifically say I'm not going to write a general how to play town guide, just give a little bit of general advice against what's made town lose in about three of the last four games I've played, and then talked about how to use clues properly and that killing Joker is a high priority for town. It's not even that massive either, haha.
The problem here is that there was in no way ANY threat towards him. I would shrug it off. Why does it matter? I see this as over-defensive. An act of Mafia/SK. I called Curu out on something similar, and I'm calling Wiggles out on this now. Pyo continues accusing, but never voting, to put on pressure. Wiggles starts getting angsty, defensive, and even a bit upset I dare say. Notice the ad-homs coming out. + Show Spoiler +
Are you sure about that? I'm starting to question if you read posts or just skim through them.
There's no reason to do that at all. Name calling creates chaos and strife. We don't need that sort of atmosphere. I prefer logical to the emotional. I guess SKs/Mafia prefer different.
That quote happened around 7/18 15:45. Wiggles doesn't post again until 7/19 2:16. Looking at the big picture of the day, Wiggles has done absolutely nothing. Generic advice and defense. Great. How useful. But he seems like town! No, no he doesn't.
By the time Wiggles comes back, discussion has already taken place on new lynch candidates. New suspects. New post analyses to be done. Does Wiggles do any of that? No! He doesn't scum hunt! He jumps STRAIGHT to defending himself from Drazerk's accusation. Let's take a look. + Show Spoiler +
I'm gonna address the case against me pretty quickly, but basically I'm being accused of talking about game mechanics for the first two hours of the game, and not scumhunting. (Game started 10KST, last quoted post at 11:57KST). This accusation is true, but shouldn't mark me as scummy, given that it's pretty hard to scum hunt in the first two hours of the game, as most people have yet to post, or have very few posts. Mechanics are just a starting point to get people talking at the beginning of the game, as there is very little else to talk about. Scumhunting begins from there.
Notice, he says it's only 2 hours due to the last quoted post. Hahaha, he doesn't even try to give correct info. He had, in actuallity, 5 hours and 45 minutes worth of material to try and scum hunt off of, and THEN another 16 hours and 16 minutes of information to add in something with his defense. What does he do? He says he only had 2 hours. He LIED to strengthen his defense. Scum move, yes? The rest of his post talks about how the game started. Yeah, we all read that. That's not new information. Where's the scum hunting wiggles?
Palmar calls him out on this. Palmar even stated there was no threat, and Wiggles didn't even need to defend. Oh, but defend he did. Just like earlier, with Pyo, he jumps on the defense and never attacks. He hints at attacks, like at Palmar (saying Palmar bandwagons) and SS (agreeing with Curu that SS lied), but he gives no analysis and he does not VOTE. HE'S NOT VOTING! He says Palmar is contradictory, and SS seems really suspicious and contradicted himself, yet he votes for neither. WHY? Because he doesn't want to commit to anything. No votes, no trails. Just soft hints. He's afraid to be wrong, to stick his head out, to provide information.
I can do clue analysis if you want. The only problem with your plan though, is that the clues only point to specific mafia, not all of them, so there won't always be clue analysis available for each lynch. A lack of clue analysis is not absolving.
Look. Once again he wants to do something without doing anything. Clue analysis doesn't need to point to anyone. It'll be vague. It'll be part of a team. You'll hide your opinion. It's IN THE FUTURE. Once again, this is not scum hunting. This is not taking a stance. This is being as unhelpful and uninformative as possible. Scum/SK play.
So, after Wiggles stated that "there's a lot to talk about," that "he's re-reading the thread and taking notes on players," and that "we should keep a pro-town atmosphere," he has done none of those things. What a contradiction. I guess he's right that "scumhunting doesn't magically appear," especially not from scum.
Join me, and vote Wiggles. Let's break up the bandwagons. Let's force him to take a stance. Let's force Mafia's hand and get them out amongst the townies. Most of all, let's lynch this killer.
Ok, here's a question for you: "As the horror, what purpose does that post serve, as compared to not posting it at all?".
You say that it's to put forward a plan that some idiotic Towny will use reverse psychology on in order to claim psychologist on day one. However, I'd disagree, because I wasn't pushing the plan and instead called it bad in my own post, baiting for someone to try to argue against me.
So, then is it to establish myself as a townie with the first strong post of the game? You say that the horror will optimally try to establish himself as being very town, in order to dodge the lynch. I disagree with this again, though. By acting pro-town, the horror increases the chance that the mafia will visit him, because pro-town and active players are one of the highest hit priorities for mafia. The horror can't fake medic protection, since when mafia visit him, he kills the person he visits as well. Mafia will know as soon as they visit him the he's the horror, due to the redirection in KP, unless the Horror manages to stack on a mafia hit. Even then, it's not as good for him, because as medics die, or claim, it will become apparent that he was never protected. If mafia know who he is, they will make a case against him (which will necessarily be strong because they know they're correct), which is a bad thing for the horror.
As I see it, optimal strategy for the horror is to avoid being hit for as long as he can without becoming too big of a lynch target. This means somewhat lurking or simply trying to blend in on Day 1 and maybe 2, to avoid early hits, before increasing his contributions on later days to stop from becoming a lynch target, hopefully far enough along that he can secure his victory before being shot.
Acting as I was (before I was the target of analysis), actually goes against what I see as optimal horror play, as being active and trying to promote discussion is inherently pro-town (Or at least appears that way, as you say), and so increases my chances of being shot, on top of being one of the more veteran players. A better strategy would to be to lurk through Day 1, to avoid a hit, as the only reason for a hit in that scenario would be veteran status, which I believe is lower in priority than actual active and contributory townies.
@Tnkted
Can you explain why you think Palmar is scummy better? You seem convinced that you have a strong case, but I'm not liking your repetition of "It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.", as a mislynch is always bad for town. You seem to be downplaying the significance of it, such that you can seem convinced that you're correct, but if you're wrong, you don't take responsibility for it, since it's "only day 1, so no biggie".
On August 24 2011 10:32 Mr. Wiggles wrote: @Ferryman
Ok, here's a question for you: "As the horror, what purpose does that post serve, as compared to not posting it at all?".
You say that it's to put forward a plan that some idiotic Towny will use reverse psychology on in order to claim psychologist on day one. However, I'd disagree, because I wasn't pushing the plan and instead called it bad in my own post, baiting for someone to try to argue against me.
So, then is it to establish myself as a townie with the first strong post of the game? You say that the horror will optimally try to establish himself as being very town, in order to dodge the lynch. I disagree with this again, though. By acting pro-town, the horror increases the chance that the mafia will visit him, because pro-town and active players are one of the highest hit priorities for mafia. The horror can't fake medic protection, since when mafia visit him, he kills the person he visits as well. Mafia will know as soon as they visit him the he's the horror, due to the redirection in KP, unless the Horror manages to stack on a mafia hit. Even then, it's not as good for him, because as medics die, or claim, it will become apparent that he was never protected. If mafia know who he is, they will make a case against him (which will necessarily be strong because they know they're correct), which is a bad thing for the horror.
As I see it, optimal strategy for the horror is to avoid being hit for as long as he can without becoming too big of a lynch target. This means somewhat lurking or simply trying to blend in on Day 1 and maybe 2, to avoid early hits, before increasing his contributions on later days to stop from becoming a lynch target, hopefully far enough along that he can secure his victory before being shot.
Acting as I was (before I was the target of analysis), actually goes against what I see as optimal horror play, as being active and trying to promote discussion is inherently pro-town (Or at least appears that way, as you say), and so increases my chances of being shot, on top of being one of the more veteran players. A better strategy would to be to lurk through Day 1, to avoid a hit, as the only reason for a hit in that scenario would be veteran status, which I believe is lower in priority than actual active and contributory townies.
@Tnkted
Can you explain why you think Palmar is scummy better? You seem convinced that you have a strong case, but I'm not liking your repetition of "It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.", as a mislynch is always bad for town. You seem to be downplaying the significance of it, such that you can seem convinced that you're correct, but if you're wrong, you don't take responsibility for it, since it's "only day 1, so no biggie".
I fully disagree with your perception of how the horror should be playing. Amongst other things, the mafia won't make too much of an effort to make a case against the horror. You see, the mafia might go out of his way to make sure they lynch him, but they might not, as getting him lynched doesn't help as much as killing a townie. That is, for the EH doesn't count as a townie for the mafia's outnumbering condition, so killing him (especially since he sabotages the medic) is a worse play than getting a townie lynched.
I am not going to argue with you anymore, however, I made my stance crystal clear, anyone who wants to read it can see it and decide, arguing with you is now only going to serve to clutter up the thread.
On palmar, I fully agree with wiggles, that case is really floppy, and lynching on "scumtells" because its "only day 1, a mislynch is expected" is bad play. Make a more convincing case please.
I hate meta arguments, and I hate lynching people for "scumslips" (being someone who helped mislynch someone for a supposed scumslip) so I'm just gonna throw in that I don't think that there's really a case to be made against either Wiggles or Palmar, also I have to agree with Wiggles on smart EA play, I was thinking about this before this whole fight and I can't see how the EA get's around the whole mafia knowing who he is if they ever take a shot at him thing, even if they don't make it priority number one they still want to win and will get around to tunneling him for a lynch eventually and that's very bad for the EA. I also think that Wiggles would have thought this through and arrived at a similar conclusion which would make most of Ferryman's case not work.
On August 24 2011 11:08 Navillus wrote: I hate meta arguments, and I hate lynching people for "scumslips" (being someone who helped mislynch someone for a supposed scumslip) so I'm just gonna throw in that I don't think that there's really a case to be made against either Wiggles or Palmar, also I have to agree with Wiggles on smart EA play, I was thinking about this before this whole fight and I can't see how the EA get's around the whole mafia knowing who he is if they ever take a shot at him thing, even if they don't make it priority number one they still want to win and will get around to tunneling him for a lynch eventually and that's very bad for the EA. I also think that Wiggles would have thought this through and arrived at a similar conclusion which would make most of Ferryman's case not work.
Mafia don't have to kill the horror to win, just outnumber the remaining town. Thus lynching town is >>>>> than lynching the horror for them, since its one night less they have to use. As long as the psychologist is in play the mafia have no reason to care about the horror, at all.
Two questions. When the EH wins does the game immediately end? or is a joint victory possible. Is the EH considered a "threat to the town" for the purposes of the town wincondition
I haven't got time to devote to proper posting tonight. I've skimmed through everything so far, and I'm glad to see that the spam has cut down and we've got good discussion going. My initial thoughts: 1. Palmar probably isn't scum. The case against him is claiming that a joke response was a scum slip. 2. People pushing for lynching Palmar based on the above are dumb or scum. If they've got a good reason (haven't seen any so far) then it's not suspicious. 3. tnkted is probably scum 4. Ferryman, you've got a great case on wiggles, but with one problem. You designed that case to prove that he's the EA. What you should be doing is analyzing and then figuring out what he is. Because it was the cause and not the effect, I'm not yet convinced by it.
I'll get something more detailed up tomorrow morning.
On August 24 2011 09:45 tnkted wrote: Ferryman, if you are new, then welcome to mafia! You have a bright future here, and if you're town mafia will probably want to hit you n1.
In this case though, I think you might be right but lynching palmar is a better move here. Sir Jesse Wiggles ESQ (duke of yorkshire) is a notoriously difficult person to read at the best of times because he plays so close to the chest, and I've written my share of analysis on him and been wrong every time.
That being said, your evidence makes a lot of sense, and if we don't have any other leads tomorrow I'd be totally happy gettin' wiggy wit' it. But right now, palmar is a better lynch because
A) His response to the FOS has been very scummy B) The slip thing I mentioned earlier C) It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.
Keep your eye on Wiggles and if you find anything else we'll act on it. For now though, Palmar is scummier than wiggles and I'd rather lynch him,
Just some advice: the first post you posted felt to me like more of a pressure post (ie it wasn't very convincing) but the second one (the meta one) was much more convincing (wiggles rather comprehensive response notwithstanding).
Anyone pushing the idea that day 1 lynches are a crapshots is stupid.
On August 24 2011 09:45 tnkted wrote: Ferryman, if you are new, then welcome to mafia! You have a bright future here, and if you're town mafia will probably want to hit you n1.
In this case though, I think you might be right but lynching palmar is a better move here. Sir Jesse Wiggles ESQ (duke of yorkshire) is a notoriously difficult person to read at the best of times because he plays so close to the chest, and I've written my share of analysis on him and been wrong every time.
That being said, your evidence makes a lot of sense, and if we don't have any other leads tomorrow I'd be totally happy gettin' wiggy wit' it. But right now, palmar is a better lynch because
A) His response to the FOS has been very scummy B) The slip thing I mentioned earlier C) It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.
Keep your eye on Wiggles and if you find anything else we'll act on it. For now though, Palmar is scummier than wiggles and I'd rather lynch him,
Just some advice: the first post you posted felt to me like more of a pressure post (ie it wasn't very convincing) but the second one (the meta one) was much more convincing (wiggles rather comprehensive response notwithstanding).
Anyone pushing the idea that day 1 lynches are a crapshots is stupid.
Erandorr, since you're around right now, what do you think of tnkted? Was his accusation of Palmar warranted, and does the logic behind it make sense to you?
The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror. It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
On August 24 2011 21:19 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I find it strange that Tnkted found more reason to vote for Palmar than Navillus, and in fact let Navillus' whole first post slide. Am I alone here?
Not at all. However, I'm not always the best scumhunter, so I'd like to call on the analysis skills of Jackal58. Jackal, what do you think of tnkted's play so far in this game?
I'm also going to vote tnkted, since I can always change it later if need be.
On August 24 2011 20:50 chaos13 wrote: Erandorr, since you're around right now, what do you think of tnkted? Was his accusation of Palmar warranted, and does the logic behind it make sense to you?
Sorry chaos, give me another few hours I am still at work, okay ?
I apologize, I meant to update this earlier but never got the opportunity...
Extension Mechanic Update: After thinking about it, I decided to change the way extensions are used while the game is too early to matter. Check the changes in OP.
In essence, people individually voting ##extension was necessary on deadline lynch but is redundant on majority lynch and just murks up things, so that is scrapped. Also to prevent unnecessary extension abuse which will delay upcoming games, I restricted the number of overall extension available down to 2 so spend them wisely.
Once again sincere apologizes for abrupt change, I'm just glad I got this notification in before more people voted for the extension. @Palmar: Yes. I don't see much problem with it and prevent ##extension from cluttering things up. Also restricted overall extensions available for various reasons. Thought this change was acceptable since it is not integral part of the rules.
@TheFerryman:
On August 24 2011 11:54 TheFerryman wrote: Two questions. When the EH wins does the game immediately end? or is a joint victory possible. Is the EH considered a "threat to the town" for the purposes of the town wincondition
EA and Mafia do not have conflicting win condition (All surviving players are insane, town # = mafia #), so EA-Mafia joint win is possible. Yes, EA and Town victory condition are incompatible which is why
... For all players Eldritch Abomination roleclaim is forbidden ...
While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
##Unvote
##Vote: Tnkted
He mentioned something about a newbie mistake as coverup for Navillus, but that would be a newbie mistake for someone playing mafia more so than someone on town.
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
It´s been discussed earlier why breadcrumbs are bad, obvious posting of intent isn´t any better. Even if everyone claim they visit someone, there is information there. Either people lie, and we get WIFOM, or scum/EA picks up on it, and either attack those who are visited by many to find their enemy power-role, or stay away from those who are visited by anyone, to ensure their ability gets through.
Right now tnkted looks the most scummy, but I want to hear his defence before I vote. He hasn´t been online for about 12 hours.
On extension, if there are a limited number of uses, then I suggest we wait and don´t use one today, unless we are forced by not having a majority vote, because they will probably be better used in the late game. We should have about 25 hours left on the day, so there is still time to discuss this next lynch.
This is the reason why some people were suspecting Narvillus:
On August 24 2011 00:20 Navillus wrote: Dammit I need to role something more interesting than townie one of these days... anyway, I've never played a mini before so I'm very open to any mini-specific advice anyone has.
versus this:
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Which one of those seems scummier to you? To me, the second comment seems scummier by far.
Now, I'd be willing to believe that it was a joke if it wasn't for Palmar's response:
On August 24 2011 01:12 Palmar wrote: Right.
This is not what happened. My win condition is to eliminate all threats to town. I did not slip, you're trying to manufacture evidence out of something that doesn't exist. My joke can't even be shrugged off as bad town play because nothing exists in it that would indicate I'm not town.
This is a very sullen, angry response. Rather than joke around with my pressure and OMGUS, like Narvillus's did:
On August 24 2011 01:29 Navillus wrote: ##Vote: Jackal58
OMGUS
Narvillus wasn't worried about the pressure because he was having fun and joking around; he knew he was innocent and he knew that jackal thought he was innocent. Meanwhile, Palmar's FIRST INSTINCT upon being accused was to lash out. his FIRST INSTINCT is to accuse me of manufacturing evidence. Is that a reasonable response? I sure don't think it is.
So that's my case for accusing palmar. You can find it convincing, or you can find it unconvincing, I'm not really concerned about it. Much of what I just outlined happened in my head unconciously and I'm sort of explaining my scumdar pings after the fact, if that makes any sense.
@ people saying I'm trying to avoid responsibility for a mislynch by saying 'its day 1, no biggie': That is not what I intended that comment to come across as at all. Lynching anyone (lynching ME) would bring us to the same point that a mislynch with palmar would. I'm saying that since it's day 1, the chances of us completely ruining our chances at winning the game by mislynching are extremely small (we'd have to hit the psychologist). I was specifically talking to ferryman, who, judging from the content of the post I was responding too, seemed to be placing an inordinate amount of importance on hitting scum day1 with a lynch.
Regarding our lynch today, if we aren't lynching Palmar I'd like to suggest Cyber_Cheese. This:
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
##Unvote
##Vote: Tnkted
He mentioned something about a newbie mistake as coverup for Navillus, but that would be a newbie mistake for someone playing mafia more so than someone on town.
Is the stupidest reason I've ever seen anyone give for hopping on a wagon. If he thinks navillus is scum and I'm covering up for him, why wouldn't he just vote navillus? I'll tell you why: because a wagon is forming around me and he wants to hop on safely.
Whats more, he's done this several times already this game.
On August 24 2011 01:49 Cyber_Cheese wrote: We have no investigative roles, the way I see it our best chance is to vote for people from the get-go That said
##Vote: Navillus
Because he was the first person to talk about being a townie.
Following jackal.
On August 24 2011 01:52 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Wait, on second thought I'm going to
##Unvote
##Vote: Navillus Palmar
If he feels the need to convince Jackal he's a townie, I think it's more likely that he's not actually a townie.
Following me.
On August 24 2011 21:19 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I find it strange that Tnkted found more reason to vote for Palmar than Navillus, and in fact let Navillus' whole first post slide. Am I alone here?
As the wagon was picking up steam.
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
##Unvote
##Vote: Tnkted
He mentioned something about a newbie mistake as coverup for Navillus, but that would be a newbie mistake for someone playing mafia more so than someone on town.
That's three wagons he's hopped on in less than a page of posts. Coincidentally, those are the only three wagons that have existed this game.
He also tries to cover up the fact that he's wagon hopping:
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror. It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
wtf@this post i already pointed out why the plan of everyone claiming a target is extremely pro-EA and pro-scum and doesnt help the town AT ALL. the fact that you're still suggesting it is mindboggling. it's a particularly dangerous plan because it actually sounds good before you think about it.
i wanted to go back and see if there's a case to be made against you, but tnkted already pointed out the bandwagon hopping. i wanna add this though which i think is more damning than hopping:
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary: The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
JeeJee, could you please explain how you reasoning here?
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary: The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess.
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
JeeJee, could you please explain how you reasoning here?
On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary: The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess.
I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
JeeJee, could you please explain how you reasoning here?
if we kill EA, night is skipped
My apologies, I forgot that.
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles
just for references sake, i made a list
posts so far since the game started 1. Mr. Wiggles 5 2. Cyber_Cheese 12 3. Sevryn 8 4. TheFerryman 12 5. chaos13 5 6. Palmar 14 7. Navillus 5 8. Eiii 2 9. JeeJee 2 10. Jackal58 11 11. Forumite 8 12. Erandorr 11 13. tnkted 18
both of eiii's were spent accusing palmar scum tend to stay really quiet on sc2 mafia, im not sure how forum mafia compares
On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary: The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess.
I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50
Anonymous vote also won't work, in the case that the psychologist decides to hit another target who he thinks is better, which may leave us in a situation where he hits the Horror, but never even visited the "town chosen" target, leading us to a mislynch. As well, it opens the door to manipulation from the horror/mafia on who the target should be. Pretty much the same reasons that all blues aren't directed in normal games.
@Tnkted
Thanks for explaining that, it makes me feel better about you. Not sure why you were referring to a slip when you thought his reaction to pressure was what was scummy, but that's actually pretty interesting.
On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary: The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess.
I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50
what do you suggest happens if we all vote for psych to visit himself?
p.s. it's not 50-50 just because there's 2 possibilities. it's like, the odds of anything happening are 50-50 because it either happens or it doesn't.
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror. It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
JeeJee, could you please explain how you reasoning here?
if we kill EA, night is skipped
My apologies, I forgot that.
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles
just for references sake, i made a list
posts so far since the game started 1. Mr. Wiggles 5 2. Cyber_Cheese 12 3. Sevryn 8 4. TheFerryman 12 5. chaos13 5 6. Palmar 14 7. Navillus 5 8. Eiii 2 9. JeeJee 2 10. Jackal58 11 11. Forumite 8 12. Erandorr 11 13. tnkted 18
both of eiii's were spent accusing palmar scum tend to stay really quiet on sc2 mafia, im not sure how forum mafia compares
So what made you change your mind so quick, when neither me nor ferryman posted between these? Rather contradictory, don't you think?
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror. It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
JeeJee, could you please explain how you reasoning here?
if we kill EA, night is skipped
My apologies, I forgot that.
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles
just for references sake, i made a list
posts so far since the game started 1. Mr. Wiggles 5 2. Cyber_Cheese 12 3. Sevryn 8 4. TheFerryman 12 5. chaos13 5 6. Palmar 14 7. Navillus 5 8. Eiii 2 9. JeeJee 2 10. Jackal58 11 11. Forumite 8 12. Erandorr 11 13. tnkted 18
both of eiii's were spent accusing palmar scum tend to stay really quiet on sc2 mafia, im not sure how forum mafia compares
So what made you change your mind so quick, when neither me nor ferryman posted between these? Rather contradictory, don't you think?
You've posted less, out of the two of you I'd rather ferryman based off that, and tnkted accusing me made me realise just how scummy I made myself look In my experience with SC2 mafia, only weak town roles accuse each other on day 1 because if they turn out to be wrong they're only townies
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror. It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
On August 25 2011 02:27 JeeJee wrote:
On August 25 2011 02:07 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 01:49 JeeJee wrote:
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
JeeJee, could you please explain how you reasoning here?
if we kill EA, night is skipped
My apologies, I forgot that.
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles
just for references sake, i made a list
posts so far since the game started 1. Mr. Wiggles 5 2. Cyber_Cheese 12 3. Sevryn 8 4. TheFerryman 12 5. chaos13 5 6. Palmar 14 7. Navillus 5 8. Eiii 2 9. JeeJee 2 10. Jackal58 11 11. Forumite 8 12. Erandorr 11 13. tnkted 18
both of eiii's were spent accusing palmar scum tend to stay really quiet on sc2 mafia, im not sure how forum mafia compares
So what made you change your mind so quick, when neither me nor ferryman posted between these? Rather contradictory, don't you think?
You've posted less, out of the two of you I'd rather ferryman based off that, and tnkted accusing me made me realise just how scummy I made myself look In my experience with SC2 mafia, only weak town roles accuse each other on day 1 because if they turn out to be wrong they're only townies
So in your opinion, Wiggles and Ferryman are probably Scum?
It doesn´t really add up with your earlier post, Wiggles might have few posts, but they are HUGE, he´s only posting long analysis and policy posts. Ferryman is quite active, and drew a lot of attention to himself early. If you are looking for players trying to stay out of sight, they look like very bad choices.
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror. It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
On August 25 2011 02:27 JeeJee wrote:
On August 25 2011 02:07 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 01:49 JeeJee wrote:
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
JeeJee, could you please explain how you reasoning here?
if we kill EA, night is skipped
My apologies, I forgot that.
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles
just for references sake, i made a list
posts so far since the game started 1. Mr. Wiggles 5 2. Cyber_Cheese 12 3. Sevryn 8 4. TheFerryman 12 5. chaos13 5 6. Palmar 14 7. Navillus 5 8. Eiii 2 9. JeeJee 2 10. Jackal58 11 11. Forumite 8 12. Erandorr 11 13. tnkted 18
both of eiii's were spent accusing palmar scum tend to stay really quiet on sc2 mafia, im not sure how forum mafia compares
So what made you change your mind so quick, when neither me nor ferryman posted between these? Rather contradictory, don't you think?
You've posted less, out of the two of you I'd rather ferryman based off that, and tnkted accusing me made me realise just how scummy I made myself look In my experience with SC2 mafia, only weak town roles accuse each other on day 1 because if they turn out to be wrong they're only townies
So in your opinion, Wiggles and Ferryman are probably Scum?
It doesn´t really add up with your earlier post, Wiggles might have few posts, but they are HUGE, he´s only posting long analysis and policy posts. Ferryman is quite active, and drew a lot of attention to himself early. If you are looking for players trying to stay out of sight, they look like very bad choices.
at the moment, i'm believing wiggles is the horror
Ferryman posted a good analysis on the original indecisiveness of Wiggles's original post, but what finally convinced me was the fact Wiggles tried to draw up a case from another game where he was wrongly accused as town.
Forgive me for playing devils advocate, but isn't wiggles claiming that he's being wrongly accused as town in this game? So wouldn't that be exactly what he SHOULD quote?
On August 25 2011 04:16 tnkted wrote: Forgive me for playing devils advocate, but isn't wiggles claiming that he's being wrongly accused as town in this game? So wouldn't that be exactly what he SHOULD quote?
No, because if he was town, he'd be so convinced of his own innocence that the mere idea of him being scum should be way too far out for him to defend himself in the manner that he's doing.
I think the case was a good one, but what's damning isn't the case, but much rather wiggles's responses to the case.
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror. It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
On August 25 2011 02:27 JeeJee wrote:
On August 25 2011 02:07 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 01:49 JeeJee wrote:
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
JeeJee, could you please explain how you reasoning here?
if we kill EA, night is skipped
My apologies, I forgot that.
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles
just for references sake, i made a list
posts so far since the game started 1. Mr. Wiggles 5 2. Cyber_Cheese 12 3. Sevryn 8 4. TheFerryman 12 5. chaos13 5 6. Palmar 14 7. Navillus 5 8. Eiii 2 9. JeeJee 2 10. Jackal58 11 11. Forumite 8 12. Erandorr 11 13. tnkted 18
both of eiii's were spent accusing palmar scum tend to stay really quiet on sc2 mafia, im not sure how forum mafia compares
So what made you change your mind so quick, when neither me nor ferryman posted between these? Rather contradictory, don't you think?
You've posted less, out of the two of you I'd rather ferryman based off that, and tnkted accusing me made me realise just how scummy I made myself look In my experience with SC2 mafia, only weak town roles accuse each other on day 1 because if they turn out to be wrong they're only townies
So in your opinion, Wiggles and Ferryman are probably Scum?
It doesn´t really add up with your earlier post, Wiggles might have few posts, but they are HUGE, he´s only posting long analysis and policy posts. Ferryman is quite active, and drew a lot of attention to himself early. If you are looking for players trying to stay out of sight, they look like very bad choices.
at the moment, i'm believing wiggles is the horror
why?
On August 25 2011 04:32 Erandorr wrote: Okay IM back and catching up now. I will post as soon as I have a clear opinion
Yeah Cyber Cheese I really dont know wtf you are doing
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
I would like to hear your explanation on that one. I really hate not killing people who are innocent as well, I even am forced to see a psychiatrist for that LOL.. get it.. no? not funny? okay
But notice that its his first game, and I dont really get a SCUM newbie vibe from him, those tend to lurk hardcore more often then not. Hes just a bit bloodthirsty. Right now Scummy, but not day 1 lynch worthy. Also SC2 Mafia player and anyone who ever played that should know what it means.
I want moar time and get an extra day which is a completely awesome tool for town. We get more information and the chance that we pull a XLIV is reduced by a lot
I dont have a clear favorite as of yet but leaning more towards tnkted because he is 1) ultra defensive (that 1000 lines OMGUS was weird because all he cared about was discrediting Chesses wagon jumps, not the shit that guy has said up until now) and if you filter his posts, the rest has been pretty much just fluff
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror. It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
On August 25 2011 02:27 JeeJee wrote:
On August 25 2011 02:07 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 01:49 JeeJee wrote:
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
JeeJee, could you please explain how you reasoning here?
if we kill EA, night is skipped
My apologies, I forgot that.
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles
just for references sake, i made a list
posts so far since the game started 1. Mr. Wiggles 5 2. Cyber_Cheese 12 3. Sevryn 8 4. TheFerryman 12 5. chaos13 5 6. Palmar 14 7. Navillus 5 8. Eiii 2 9. JeeJee 2 10. Jackal58 11 11. Forumite 8 12. Erandorr 11 13. tnkted 18
both of eiii's were spent accusing palmar scum tend to stay really quiet on sc2 mafia, im not sure how forum mafia compares
So what made you change your mind so quick, when neither me nor ferryman posted between these? Rather contradictory, don't you think?
You've posted less, out of the two of you I'd rather ferryman based off that, and tnkted accusing me made me realise just how scummy I made myself look In my experience with SC2 mafia, only weak town roles accuse each other on day 1 because if they turn out to be wrong they're only townies
So in your opinion, Wiggles and Ferryman are probably Scum?
It doesn´t really add up with your earlier post, Wiggles might have few posts, but they are HUGE, he´s only posting long analysis and policy posts. Ferryman is quite active, and drew a lot of attention to himself early. If you are looking for players trying to stay out of sight, they look like very bad choices.
at the moment, i'm believing wiggles is the horror
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror. It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
On August 25 2011 02:27 JeeJee wrote:
On August 25 2011 02:07 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 01:49 JeeJee wrote:[quote]
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
JeeJee, could you please explain how you reasoning here?
if we kill EA, night is skipped
My apologies, I forgot that.
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles
just for references sake, i made a list
posts so far since the game started 1. Mr. Wiggles 5 2. Cyber_Cheese 12 3. Sevryn 8 4. TheFerryman 12 5. chaos13 5 6. Palmar 14 7. Navillus 5 8. Eiii 2 9. JeeJee 2 10. Jackal58 11 11. Forumite 8 12. Erandorr 11 13. tnkted 18
both of eiii's were spent accusing palmar scum tend to stay really quiet on sc2 mafia, im not sure how forum mafia compares
So what made you change your mind so quick, when neither me nor ferryman posted between these? Rather contradictory, don't you think?
You've posted less, out of the two of you I'd rather ferryman based off that, and tnkted accusing me made me realise just how scummy I made myself look In my experience with SC2 mafia, only weak town roles accuse each other on day 1 because if they turn out to be wrong they're only townies
So in your opinion, Wiggles and Ferryman are probably Scum?
It doesn´t really add up with your earlier post, Wiggles might have few posts, but they are HUGE, he´s only posting long analysis and policy posts. Ferryman is quite active, and drew a lot of attention to himself early. If you are looking for players trying to stay out of sight, they look like very bad choices.
at the moment, i'm believing wiggles is the horror
why?
On August 25 2011 04:32 Erandorr wrote: Okay IM back and catching up now. I will post as soon as I have a clear opinion
an hour later...
Do you have any idea how long it took me to perfect that awesome and in no way lame joke?
Here's a better joke. It's a bit long but worth the read. Very relatable too if you happen to be like me and in your 20s Perhaps you can use it as a template for writing better jokes in the future! + Show Spoiler +
When I was a kid, adults used to bore me to tears with their tedious diatribes about how hard things were when they were growing up. With walking twenty-five miles to school every morning uphill both ways through year 'round blizzards carrying their younger siblings on their backs to their one-room schoolhouse where they maintained a straight-A average despite their full-time after-school job at the local textile mill where they worked for 35 cents an hour just to help keep their family from starving to death!
And I remember promising myself that when I grew up there was no way in hell I was going to lay a bunch of crap like that on kids about how hard I had it and how easy they've got it! But.... Now that I'm well into my 20s, I can't help but look around and notice the youth of today. You've got it so fuckin' easy! I mean, compared to my childhood, you live in a goddamned Utopia! And I hate to say it but you kids today you don't know how good you've got it! I mean, when I was a kid we didn't have The Internet -- we wanted to know something, we had to go to the goddamned library and look it up ourselves! And there was no email! We had to actually write somebody a letter-with a pen! And then you had to walk all the way across the street and put it in the fuckin' mailbox and it would take like a week to get there!
And there were no MP3s or Napsters! You wanted to steal music, you had to go to the goddamned record store and shoplift it yourself! Or we had to wait around all day to tape it off the radio and the DJ'd usually talk over the beginning and fuck it all up! You want to hear about hardship? You couldn't just download porn! You had to bribe some homeless dude to buy you a copy of "Hustler" at the 7-11! It was either that or jackoff to the lingerie section of the JC Penney catalog! Those were our options! We didn't have fancy shit like Call Waiting! If you were on the phone and somebody else called they got a busy signal! And we didn't have fancy Caller ID Boxes either! When the the phone rang, you had no idea who it was it could be your boss, your mom, a collections agent, your drug dealer, you didn't know!!! You just had to pick it up and take your chances, mister!
And we didn't have any fancy Sony Playstation videogames with high-resolution 3-D graphics! We had the Atari 2600! With games like "Space Invaders" and "Asteroids" and the graphics sucked ass! Your guy was a little square! You had to use your imagination! And there were no multiple levels or screens, it was just one screen forever! And you could never win, the game just kept getting harder and faster until you died! Just like LIFE!
When you went to the movie theater there no such thing as stadium seating! All the seats were the same height! A tall guy sat in front of you, you were screwed! And sure, we had cable television, but back then that was only like 20 channels and there was no onscreen menu! You had to use a little book called a TV Guide to find out what was on! And there was no Cartoon Network! You could only get cartoons on Saturday morning... ...D'ya hear what the fuck I'm saying!?! We had to wait ALL WEEK, you spoiled little bastards! That's exactly what I'm talking about! You kids today have got it too easy You're spoiled, I swear to God! You guys wouldn't last five minutes back in 1980s!
Also, I would also like to add that as kids, bike helmets were for the retarded kid down the street. If you wiped out on your green machine, then your teeth would pop out like chicklets. End of story. And don't even get me started as to where I would be now without the benefit of spell check.
Some posts I have no choice but to respond to, because it litteraly boggles my mind that people would say this kind of stuff.
On August 24 2011 11:08 Navillus wrote: I hate meta arguments
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
Have you people even *looked* at Ver's guide on how to play town? In it you will see examples of foolishness, the supreme scum hunter, using "meta" arguments to support his case, much like I do here. Allow me to quote Ver
On August 26 2010 13:08 Ver wrote: Past games matter a great deal for many reasons. Many players have claimed to have 'changed' their playstyles over time, and yes, superficially they have. But mafia ALWAYS have signs of being mafia, same for townies, and no matter what playstyle change happens. So much of what is used for behavior analysis is subconscious that really only a life-altering event would change someone so deeply that their past games would be useless. You simply must look deep and not just take everything at face value as core constants remain the same.
Core constants, like an apologetic backtracking tone or trying to skirt responsibility are what my meta analysis shows and why its valuable. Anyone discarding it because its "just meta" needs to read Ver's guide one more time and realize that when analyzing things are not going to be just obvious.
On August 24 2011 12:37 chaos13 wrote:
4. Ferryman, you've got a great case on wiggles, but with one problem. You designed that case to prove that he's the EA. What you should be doing is analyzing and then figuring out what he is. Because it was the cause and not the effect, I'm not yet convinced by it.
I'll get something more detailed up tomorrow morning.
Two things, this is flatly wrong, I read his posts, realized he was the EH and then showed how I reached that conclusion and supported it with evidence, the goal of my argument is to prove he is the EH, not discuss each and every possibility about what he could be or "how this is also possibly a town thought". The goal of an argument is to persuade and demonstrate, I'm not going to achieve that by going off on tangents and bringing up evidence that is not relevant to the case. That is part of the reason why PbP analysis fail, they bring up *every* *single* thing that has been said, rather than only taking the pieces that matter to the puzzle.
On August 24 2011 23:28 tnkted wrote: I was specifically talking to ferryman, who, judging from the content of the post I was responding too, seemed to be placing an inordinate amount of importance on hitting scum day1 with a lynch.
Every mislynch brings us closer to defeat. Hitting scum day 1 is just as important as hitting them day 2 and day 3, remember it doesn't matter when we mislynch, as every mislynch is a step closer to losing the game. Lynch right from the start, no excuses.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
Seriously? A random lynch? This is a poor idea to say the least, with a random lynch we have a 4/13 chance of hitting scum, less because mafia get to help direct it, with strong town play and good analysis our chances of hitting scum are much greater. Not to mention a random lynch provides next to no information, as opposed to a hard fought lynch where there is discussion and analysis. Justify this idea better please.
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum.
Thank god I'm not the only person who sees this, if we get a chance to nail the EH we need to seize it, its a free extra day and the removal of a major threat. Why wouldn't we go for it?
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
JeeJee, could you please explain how you reasoning here?
if we kill EA, night is skipped
My apologies, I forgot that.
##Unvote
##Vote MrWiggles
just for references sake, i made a list
posts so far since the game started 1. Mr. Wiggles 5 2. Cyber_Cheese 12 3. Sevryn 8 4. TheFerryman 12 5. chaos13 5 6. Palmar 14 7. Navillus 5 8. Eiii 2 9. JeeJee 2 10. Jackal58 11 11. Forumite 8 12. Erandorr 11 13. tnkted 18
both of eiii's were spent accusing palmar scum tend to stay really quiet on sc2 mafia, im not sure how forum mafia compares
Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
Also, we are done discussing crumbing, its a worthless discussion that is going to get us nowhere, our medic and psychologist are intelligent enough to figure out what they have to do, trying to lead them is only going to hinder them. I expect to hear no more discussion of crumbs, or voting for their targets or anything of the sort.
Finally, I'm getting weird vibes from JeeJee, I need to go back and read up on his meta. JeeJee, what's the last game you rolled town (preferably a normal or mini)? I'm going to go check SNMMIII (i think that was the game) for your scum meta.
A journalist interviews a farmer : - You have a very nice field, and a good number of cows, do you get a good production out of it ? - Yes, yes ! mostly from the white cows. - Not from the black ? - Oh yes, from the black too ! - They seem very calm - They are very calm, mostly the white. - The black cows aren't ? - Yes, the black are very calm too ! - Do they make a good milk ? - Yes, mainly the white. - The black don't ? - Oh, yes, they do too. - Sir I don't understand, why do you always refere to this white cows then ? - Well, listen to me. It's because the white cows are mine. - The black aren't ? ------------------------------------------------------------------------- + Show Spoiler +
- Yes, they are also mine
oops, forgot i wasnt meant to edit, apologies, spoilered the ending
On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary: The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess.
I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50
what do you suggest happens if we all vote for psych to visit himself?
p.s. it's not 50-50 just because there's 2 possibilities. it's like, the odds of anything happening are 50-50 because it either happens or it doesn't.
this raises a question Can visiting roles choose to do nothing? If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home
Also reminding everyone the deadline ends at August 25 2011 23:45 KST which is approximately 17 hours away.
@Erandorr
If no clear majority vote has emerged before end of the day, the deadline will be extended for further 24 hours (if you want no lynch you'll have to majority vote it). Extension can occur only once per day, and twice per game.
On August 25 2011 06:27 Cyber_Cheese wrote: for as long as we're at jokes + Show Spoiler +
A journalist interviews a farmer : - You have a very nice field, and a good number of cows, do you get a good production out of it ? - Yes, yes ! mostly from the white cows. - Not from the black ? - Oh yes, from the black too ! - They seem very calm - They are very calm, mostly the white. - The black cows aren't ? - Yes, the black are very calm too ! - Do they make a good milk ? - Yes, mainly the white. - The black don't ? - Oh, yes, they do too. - Sir I don't understand, why do you always refere to this white cows then ? - Well, listen to me. It's because the white cows are mine. - The black aren't ? ------------------------------------------------------------------------- + Show Spoiler +
- Yes, they are also mine
oops, forgot i wasnt meant to edit, apologies, spoilered the ending
I probably should explain : Notice how bad Cyber has been playing before, note then that he didnt answer any of my accusations and found the one point in my post that could be used as a deversion. Either he is really , really shitty town or badly playing SCUM/ EA
On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary: The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess.
I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50
what do you suggest happens if we all vote for psych to visit himself?
p.s. it's not 50-50 just because there's 2 possibilities. it's like, the odds of anything happening are 50-50 because it either happens or it doesn't.
this raises a question Can visiting roles choose to do nothing? If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home
this raises a better question why do you keep bringing up this idea of coordinating a psych decision?
*everyone votes for psych to visit A* *psych has committed suicide* "Ah, A must be EA!" *Lynch A* *A is not EA because EA visited psych and not vice versa*
Now what?
you're here quite often, you make a lot of posts. but all i'm seeing is that you want to kill someone, and you don't care who as long as it's not yourself. i'm seeing useless lists and pushing flawed plans. i'm seeing nonsense.
On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary: The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess.
I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50
what do you suggest happens if we all vote for psych to visit himself?
p.s. it's not 50-50 just because there's 2 possibilities. it's like, the odds of anything happening are 50-50 because it either happens or it doesn't.
this raises a question Can visiting roles choose to do nothing? If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home
this raises a better question why do you keep bringing up this idea of coordinating a psych decision?
*everyone votes for psych to visit A* *psych has committed suicide* "Ah, A must be EA!" *Lynch A* *A is not EA because EA visited psych and not vice versa*
Now what?
you're here quite often, you make a lot of posts. but all i'm seeing is that you want to kill someone, and you don't care who as long as it's not yourself. i'm seeing useless lists and pushing flawed plans. i'm seeing nonsense.
##vote:cyber cheese
So, do you think its more likely Cyber_Cheese is scum than Wiggles the EH?
Remember we are here to kill scum, not stupid townies, no matter how stupid the townie may be.
On August 25 2011 07:33 Navillus wrote: Ferryman would you be open to lynching cyber today then wiggles?
No, because I'm pretty sure wiggles is the EH, and if we lynch the EH we get a free day. I also have yet to see people build a real case that proves he is mafia, so far all I have seen is "he has played stupid", witch brings us back to the rule of thumb.
If you are going to lynch cyber I want someone who is going to take responsibility for the lynch, rather than have a bunch of people push a green lynch and then say "he was stupid anyway, its his fault" and no-one ends up being responsible.
You want him lynched Navillus? Are you willing to own up to it if he flips green? Why is the case against him more convincing than the case against wiggles?
On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote: Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below
On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum.
Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?)
5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that.
The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check)
Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych
On August 25 2011 06:51 Erandorr wrote: I probably should explain : Notice how bad Cyber has been playing before, note then that he didnt answer any of my accusations and found the one point in my post that could be used as a deversion. Either he is really , really shitty town or badly playing SCUM/ EA
I believe town is best off lynching somebody, as I've stated before, if my pushing to lynch somebody makes me that somebody, so be it I had it coming.
On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing
Breadcrumbing summary: The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb
The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess.
I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50
what do you suggest happens if we all vote for psych to visit himself?
p.s. it's not 50-50 just because there's 2 possibilities. it's like, the odds of anything happening are 50-50 because it either happens or it doesn't.
this raises a question Can visiting roles choose to do nothing? If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home
this raises a better question why do you keep bringing up this idea of coordinating a psych decision?
*everyone votes for psych to visit A* *psych has committed suicide* "Ah, A must be EA!" *Lynch A* *A is not EA because EA visited psych and not vice versa*
Now what?
you're here quite often, you make a lot of posts. but all i'm seeing is that you want to kill someone, and you don't care who as long as it's not yourself. i'm seeing useless lists and pushing flawed plans. i'm seeing nonsense.
##vote:cyber cheese
As opposed to what? psyche dying and us having no clue as to who? for someone opposed to random lynching, the 50/50 on the person being EH this presents should look more appealing than 4/11 (assuming both mafia got a kill and psych died to EH overnight, maybe even 4/10 if we lynch today and it's town) granted there are more variables to consider than just those there, but I'm telling you that 50/50 is potentially the best it is going to get.
On August 25 2011 07:33 Navillus wrote: Ferryman would you be open to lynching cyber today then wiggles?
No, because I'm pretty sure wiggles is the EH, and if we lynch the EH we get a free day. I also have yet to see people build a real case that proves he is mafia, so far all I have seen is "he has played stupid", witch brings us back to the rule of thumb.
If you are going to lynch cyber I want someone who is going to take responsibility for the lynch, rather than have a bunch of people push a green lynch and then say "he was stupid anyway, its his fault" and no-one ends up being responsible.
You want him lynched Navillus? Are you willing to own up to it if he flips green? Why is the case against him more convincing than the case against wiggles?
Tnkted was the first to vote against me, given that he's been considered suspicious already I would definitely hold him to blame in that scenario
On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote: Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below
On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum.
Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?)
5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that.
The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check)
Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych
This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.
Funny, I thought you said you thought I was the EH. What changed your mind?
Also all those numbers are irrelevant, we know we have to lynch, and no one is going to allow a no-lynch to happen. That does *not* mean jumping on every possible vote that happens. You are the current voteleader, should we all vote for you as to not risk the possibility of a no lynch? Or should we look for the EH or scum and make our lynch count? Remember if we lynch a townie we bring the mafia a step closer to victory.
Think before posting, lynching correctly is vital, and jumping on every bandwagon isn't going to achieve that. We could all pull a number out of a hat to pick who we lynch, how would that help bring us closer to victory? Of course not, it would provide no information, its the same deal with easy bandwagons, mafia can easaly blend in with arguments like the one you are making "oh, I didn't think he was mafia, but hey, I did it to avoid a no-lynch"
Your justification is poor to say the least, step up your game. What made you change your mind about me being the EH? If you really think I am it is your duty to write an analysis that proves it and sell it to the rest of the town.
You don't want to lynch anyone, just for the sake of lynching, you want to lynch scum. Otherwise you aren't town.
On August 25 2011 04:05 Palmar wrote: I'll be voting for Mr. Wiggles.
Ferryman posted a good analysis on the original indecisiveness of Wiggles's original post, but what finally convinced me was the fact Wiggles tried to draw up a case from another game where he was wrongly accused as town.
##Vote Mr. Wiggles
I posted that, because to me, his accusations feel very similar to the ones I faced all game long in Arkham Asylum.
He thinks I'm trying to downplay the danger of the horror, so that must make me the horror. (When I'm only pointing out that he's not the biggest threat to town on day 1) People did the same thing in AA, saying that by me saying that Batman will attempt to act pro-town, I was trying to make him appear as a pro-town role, and so I myself must be Batman.
He says that I'm opening with a general post talking about the set-up instead of scum hunting, when we are only several hours into the day, with very little to talk about, so a post like that is justified if it is the first one, in order to begin discussion. In AA, I was accused of being scum because I opened with such a post, and for "a lack of scum hunting", only 7 or so hours into the day.
He also says that I'm focusing too much on the horror and the psychologist, when in AA I was accused of focusing too much on the third parties, and so that must make me one myself.
It's easy to see the parallels, and part of my reaction is exasperation, because it feels to me as though it's going to be a repeat of AA, where I'm going to have to fight off accusations of being a third party the entire game, and where my credibility will be shot, because of those same accusations.
Since when is it a sure sign of scum to express trepidation? I'm normally very unsure and indecisive, both in mafia, and as a person. The difference in AA, is that I had a gun with infinite ammo, so if someone was scummy enough, I could just shoot them dead. Even as town, you'll play differently between being different roles, like VT, medic, vig, vet, mason, etc. There's different priorities and mindsets with each, that will influence how you post and play.
Also, no one has answered what advantage I would gain from even making my first post, if I was the EA. I started to write what I thought was a decent plan, then realized at the end that it was bad. However, instead of just deleting it and lurking, I decided to offer it up for discussion, to start people talking instead of being useless, and to fish for reactions.
I never said it was good, and never said it should be implemented. I also don't see how it's even possible to backtrack in one post. I made an objective plan, decided it was bad, but wanted to see how others reacted. The horror would try to argue with me, in order to see it implemented in some way, as it is beneficial for him. Scum are going to try to attack it, but also try to attack me, in order to appear to be contributing, and to lower my credibility while strengthening their own. It's scummy because I never actually proposed the plan be put into action, but by suggesting so, scum would have been able to make me look scummy and attack my credibility, furthering their objectives.
As well, something I think needs to actually be discussed and addressed in this game, is lurkers. What do people think should be done about them? Normally, we can just threaten to have a vig clear them out, but since in this game there are no vigs (besides Insane Medic, after a fashion), we're going to have to find a new way to promote discussion. Threatening lynch is one way to do it, but as this is a mini, spending lynches on hard to analyze lurkers might not be the best way to go, as it lets scum bandwagon and influence in such a way that we will likely only kill townies. We have several players with very few, short, posts, so I think we should address it before it becomes too much of a problem. What do others think?
On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote: Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below
On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum.
Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?)
5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that.
The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check)
Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych
This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.
tldr: lynching is good. this is a pretty long and useless post indeed. i'm not a fan of discussing plans or mechanics unless other people are jumping on a terrible idea. so cut it out and let's get back to discussing people.
why exactly do you think wiggles is EA? you haven't answered my earlier question about it.. "based on the arguments posted earlier" isn't an explanation.
and yes ferryman, I'd gladly take responsibility for cyber's lynch, which would include praise when he flips scum I assume.
My apologies for my absence. It was a brutal day at work today. The fuckers broke everything.
I have only read this page and will get caught up shortly but I do have a question for the Ferryman. You state rightly so that we are here to lynch scum. Yet you are obsessed with the EH. Why? I understand he's 3rd party. I understand he's anti town. I also understand that he won't kill anybody barring a chance encounter with the psych. Scum are most certainly going to begin killing us. Fuck the EH for now. We have bigger fish to fry. Of course I might be all wrong as I have just read this page atm and if so I'll be more than happy to stfu after I get caught up. I'll post my thoughts in a bit. I also have to catch up on XLIX.
On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote: Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below
On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum.
Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?)
5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that.
The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check)
Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych
This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.
Funny, I thought you said you thought I was the EH. What changed your mind?
Also all those numbers are irrelevant, we know we have to lynch, and no one is going to allow a no-lynch to happen. That does *not* mean jumping on every possible vote that happens. You are the current voteleader, should we all vote for you as to not risk the possibility of a no lynch? Or should we look for the EH or scum and make our lynch count? Remember if we lynch a townie we bring the mafia a step closer to victory.
Think before posting, lynching correctly is vital, and jumping on every bandwagon isn't going to achieve that. We could all pull a number out of a hat to pick who we lynch, how would that help bring us closer to victory? Of course not, it would provide no information, its the same deal with easy bandwagons, mafia can easaly blend in with arguments like the one you are making "oh, I didn't think he was mafia, but hey, I did it to avoid a no-lynch"
Your justification is poor to say the least, step up your game. What made you change your mind about me being the EH? If you really think I am it is your duty to write an analysis that proves it and sell it to the rest of the town.
You don't want to lynch anyone, just for the sake of lynching, you want to lynch scum. Otherwise you aren't town.
At the moment, the current evidence points to wiggles as the EH. Rest assured that if/when it's wrong I'll be making a full post on why your the real EH. Until the first lynch or two, we have no clear-cut way of determining who the mafia is, after that point we can see who defended the innocent/guilty person and analyse from there I'm not quite sure at what point you convinced yourself that the band wagoning I was doing wasn't directed at people I believed to be scum It would be in the eldritchs best interests to discredit the people who accuse him wouldn't it?
On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote: Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below
On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum.
Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?)
5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that.
The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check)
Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych
This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.
tldr: lynching is good. this is a pretty long and useless post indeed. i'm not a fan of discussing plans or mechanics unless other people are jumping on a terrible idea. so cut it out and let's get back to discussing people.
why exactly do you think wiggles is EA? you haven't answered my earlier question about it.. "based on the arguments posted earlier" isn't an explanation.
and yes ferryman, I'd gladly take responsibility for cyber's lynch, which would include praise when he flips scum I assume.
Notice how ferryman made someone else take responsibility? It's the one same thing he's been accusing MrWiggles of no less
By way overwhelming amounts of accusations I'm going to cut back on the voting I still say it's ferryman and I'll gladly be responsible for it if he's town, but I'll cast that vote later after anyone chooses to agree with me
/applause Way to go wiggles, you have a silver tongue. This post however is entirely mistaken in its representation of the situation.
Allow me to explain, scum hunting is like building a puzzle, you take all the pieces and assemble them into a single unified mindset that is behind the poster, you cannot take a single pieces and from it discern what it is you are up against, rather it is the net sum of the different pieces that allows you to see the whole picture.
What you are doing in this post is deconstructing the arguments by looking at the pieces, rather than taking the unity of the set. You see its not one of the pieces alone that damns you, but the whole matrix of them.
Now to deconstruct your post, my commentary in spoilers, as usual.
On August 25 2011 04:05 Palmar wrote: I'll be voting for Mr. Wiggles.
Ferryman posted a good analysis on the original indecisiveness of Wiggles's original post, but what finally convinced me was the fact Wiggles tried to draw up a case from another game where he was wrongly accused as town.
##Vote Mr. Wiggles
I posted that, because to me, his accusations feel very similar to the ones I faced all game long in Arkham Asylum.
He thinks I'm trying to downplay the danger of the horror, so that must make me the horror. (When I'm only pointing out that he's not the biggest threat to town on day 1) People did the same thing in AA, saying that by me saying that Batman will attempt to act pro-town, I was trying to make him appear as a pro-town role, and so I myself must be Batman. + Show Spoiler +
This is a mistaken parallelism, because acting pro-town is never a giveaway, trying to seem pro-town without actually being pro-town is. This parallel is wrong because what these people did was take an extrapolation of your behavior (being pro-town) and used that, on its own, to try to prove a case, when in reality the rest of the pieces did not fit. What happened here is I pointed out a single piece of behavior that is suggestive, but not by itself conclusive, but that when taken in combination with other points, proves you to be the EH
He says that I'm opening with a general post talking about the set-up instead of scum hunting, when we are only several hours into the day, with very little to talk about, so a post like that is justified if it is the first one, in order to begin discussion. In AA, I was accused of being scum because I opened with such a post, and for "a lack of scum hunting", only 7 or so hours into the day. + Show Spoiler +
Once again a *complete* misrepresentation, I said that its fine to spark discussion, but that the *way* you did it was not the way a town aligned player would have done it. There are two ways you could have done it, you could have begun with a plan as crappy as the one you mentioned, but not backtracked on it in which case it would have been a scum trap and an actual point of discussion, or you could have talked about the setup and lurkers without proposing a terrible EH favored plan, that allows scum to blend in by bashing it. You've been in enough games to know that that is a terrible, terrible idea. As scum in PTP I think it was, did you not enjoy making the town spend time shooting down terrible plans?
He also says that I'm focusing too much on the horror and the psychologist, when in AA I was accused of focusing too much on the third parties, and so that must make me one myself.
I use it as a piece, again, not as a single argument, that focus by itself is not what gives you away.
It's easy to see the parallels, and part of my reaction is exasperation, because it feels to me as though it's going to be a repeat of AA, where I'm going to have to fight off accusations of being a third party the entire game, and where my credibility will be shot, because of those same accusations.
Appeal to Emotion. Pity me, I'm so exasperated that people are calling me third party. You shouldn't have to stoop to this wiggles. If you are truly town, then please, analyze and help me find scum, surely in 10 pages there is enough information to get some headway
Since when is it a sure sign of scum to express trepidation? I'm normally very unsure and indecisive, both in mafia, and as a person. The difference in AA, is that I had a gun with infinite ammo, so if someone was scummy enough, I could just shoot them dead. Even as town, you'll play differently between being different roles, like VT, medic, vig, vet, mason, etc. There's different priorities and mindsets with each, that will influence how you post and play.
Its a deeper thing. When you are town you feel fearless, you don't leave room for doubt in your posts. You own up to your ideas, even if they aren't the best. You take ownership. That whole post proposes a plan in a rather decisive way and then concludes no, it sucks, which as I have discussed is bad play. And you know it is, which means there is no reason you would do it, as town. You are correct about the different mindsets, and town wiggles is the most fearless of mindsets, from my reading, since you have nothing to lose.
Also, no one has answered what advantage I would gain from even making my first post, if I was the EA. I started to write what I thought was a decent plan, then realized at the end that it was bad. However, instead of just deleting it and lurking, I decided to offer it up for discussion, to start people talking instead of being useless, and to fish for reactions.
I've already stated how you went about this entirely the wrong way.
I never said it was good, and never said it should be implemented. I also don't see how it's even possible to backtrack in one post. I made an objective plan, decided it was bad, but wanted to see how others reacted. The horror would try to argue with me, in order to see it implemented in some way, as it is beneficial for him. Scum are going to try to attack it, but also try to attack me, in order to appear to be contributing, and to lower my credibility while strengthening their own. It's scummy because I never actually proposed the plan be put into action, but by suggesting so, scum would have been able to make me look scummy and attack my credibility, furthering their objectives.
I've already stated how you went about this entirely the wrong way. By stating that you knew it was bad, no one was going to attack you, only bash the plan, and detail why its terrible, which *anyone* scum or town can do.
As well, something I think needs to actually be discussed and addressed in this game, is lurkers. What do people think should be done about them? Normally, we can just threaten to have a vig clear them out, but since in this game there are no vigs (besides Insane Medic, after a fashion), we're going to have to find a new way to promote discussion. Threatening lynch is one way to do it, but as this is a mini, spending lynches on hard to analyze lurkers might not be the best way to go, as it lets scum bandwagon and influence in such a way that we will likely only kill townies. We have several players with very few, short, posts, so I think we should address it before it becomes too much of a problem. What do others think?
I'm all for lynching lurkers, if I don't have a better target, like say the EH, which is facing me right now. Either way, I'm done arguing with you, please don't misrepresent my arguments again, so I wont have to write walls of text.
On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote: Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below
On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum.
Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?)
5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that.
The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check)
Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych
This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.
tldr: lynching is good. this is a pretty long and useless post indeed. i'm not a fan of discussing plans or mechanics unless other people are jumping on a terrible idea. so cut it out and let's get back to discussing people.
why exactly do you think wiggles is EA? you haven't answered my earlier question about it.. "based on the arguments posted earlier" isn't an explanation.
and yes ferryman, I'd gladly take responsibility for cyber's lynch, which would include praise when he flips scum I assume.
Notice how ferryman made someone else take responsibility? It's the one same thing he's been accusing MrWiggles of no less
/facepalm. I'm not the one pushing to get you lynched, I'm not even voting for you, how is it *my* responsibility?
On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote: Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles.
For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below
On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum.
Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?)
5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that.
The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check)
Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych
This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.
Funny, I thought you said you thought I was the EH. What changed your mind?
Also all those numbers are irrelevant, we know we have to lynch, and no one is going to allow a no-lynch to happen. That does *not* mean jumping on every possible vote that happens. You are the current voteleader, should we all vote for you as to not risk the possibility of a no lynch? Or should we look for the EH or scum and make our lynch count? Remember if we lynch a townie we bring the mafia a step closer to victory.
Think before posting, lynching correctly is vital, and jumping on every bandwagon isn't going to achieve that. We could all pull a number out of a hat to pick who we lynch, how would that help bring us closer to victory? Of course not, it would provide no information, its the same deal with easy bandwagons, mafia can easaly blend in with arguments like the one you are making "oh, I didn't think he was mafia, but hey, I did it to avoid a no-lynch"
Your justification is poor to say the least, step up your game. What made you change your mind about me being the EH? If you really think I am it is your duty to write an analysis that proves it and sell it to the rest of the town.
You don't want to lynch anyone, just for the sake of lynching, you want to lynch scum. Otherwise you aren't town.
At the moment, the current evidence points to wiggles as the EH. Rest assured that if/when it's wrong I'll be making a full post on why your the real EH. Until the first lynch or two, we have no clear-cut way of determining who the mafia is, after that point we can see who defended the innocent/guilty person and analyse from there I'm not quite sure at what point you convinced yourself that the band wagoning I was doing wasn't directed at people I believed to be scum It would be in the eldritchs best interests to discredit the people who accuse him wouldn't it?
What evidence? That I have slightly less posts than him? (Which says nothing when you don't consider quality or length).
Also, as a word of advice, the way to find out who the mafia are, is through analysis and discussion. This is why we don't random lynch, and why it's possible to find scum as early as day 1. And, I'm going to cut you off at the pass here, but looking only at who defends or attacks scum isn't a great way to find more scum. Townies can have wrong reads, and scum will and do bus their own team mates. You have to look at more than that.
On August 24 2011 01:49 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Vote: Navillus
On August 24 2011 01:52 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Palmar
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: TheFerryman
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Tnkted
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote MrWiggles
Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why?
This is not what happened. My win condition is to eliminate all threats to town. I did not slip, you're trying to manufacture evidence out of something that doesn't exist. My joke can't even be shrugged off as bad town play because nothing exists in it that would indicate I'm not town.
This post sets off a lot of alarm bells for me. So many that I'm just gonna go ahead and ##vote Palmar
Wiggle's plan is awful and super-pro EA, yeah, but the more interesting part of his posts to me is how much he's pushing that everyone should breadcrumb. This is my third try on typing up something about breadcrumbs, and I'm not at all sure what to think about them anymore. They can be really useful in piecing everything together lategame, yeah, but I'm really worried about how they can be used to manipulate town. Breadcrumbing pro-town stuff all game long and then revealing it all when it's LYLO or something is a really good plan for smart scum. So our only option would be to look back at people's crumbs after they die, which again leaves town open to manipulation if scum can make some really good connections that aren't there. So basically, the only way we should trust any sort of breadcrumbing scheme if if the person who made the crumbs claims them and then flips town. And, if that's the case... why do we even need breadcrumbs? I understand that, especially in a game like this where the blues' actions are so critical, it's really appealing to try to set up a system where everyone can deduce what happened, but looking at the setup, I don't think it's a good idea in this game.
alright I hope that made sense. One more thing: What happens if an insane doctor visits EA?
On August 24 2011 07:35 Palmar wrote: Care to explain what alarms it sets off? You seem to be perfectly fine with throwing down a vote based on nothing but "setting off alarms".
You made a post containing something that could be taken as scummy, tnk pointed it out, you go 'derp' and tell him to stop looking for things that aren't there. So far so good.
Then, once tnk pushes you a bit, you get really defensive. That post I quoted just doesn't feel like a post that a comfortable player makes.
He has a grand total of two posts this game.
In the first one, he doesn't do a good job explaining why he thinks Palmar is scummy, and then votes for him. He then spends a great deal of time talking about breadcrumbs. However, the way he goes about it, lets him say almost nothing in a large amount of text. Basically, he goes "This is good sometimes, but other times it isn't", before coming to the conclusion he doesn't think it's a great idea, which doesn't really follow from what he was saying, and is based on "looking at the set-up", which he doesn't bother to explain. So, he has a nice wall of text, that essentially says nothing, before he comes to a conclusion based on premises not even mentioned in his post.
His second post, he just says "You reacted weird", but he never goes further than that, or tries to add more pressure to Palmar. As well, he spends no time trying to convince others that Palmar is scummy, and completely leaves the thread.
This is also disconcerting, because he had time to post on TL today, but has not chimed in on any of the discussion that has been happening in the last 24 hours. I think he's a good candidate for a scummy lurker, and would like to see what he's thinking right now.
Also, besides me, who do you believe to be scummy, Ferryman?
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote MrWiggles
Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why?
At the moment, my views hinge on two important people 1) If MrWiggles turns out not to be the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be the eldritch himself. On the off-chance Wiggles isn't the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be town, based off various arguments that Ferryman has made against wiggles. 2) If Tnkted is mafia, I believe Navillus to also be mafia because Tnkted chose to ignore what Navillus said at the start of day 1 about being a townie, before looking a few posts further and voting Palmar based off his joke, this would also make Palmar innocent in my eyes. Again, this is perfectly inversed.
If anybody ever accuses me of tunneling again I'm going to bitch slap them. Ferryman we get it. You think Wiggles is the EH. You may very well be right. Guess what? Right now I don't care about the EH. But you sure as hell do. You are either the psych or scum. I know you have a very good grasp on how this game works. You are also on the opposite end of the brilliance spectrum from Cyber_cheese. Put your efforts into something other than tunneling your EH suspect. Please. I'm filtering all of you from most to least interesting so I'm going to be a while.
On August 24 2011 01:49 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Vote: Navillus
On August 24 2011 01:52 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Palmar
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: TheFerryman
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Tnkted
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote MrWiggles
Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why?
At the moment, my views hinge on two important people 1) If MrWiggles turns out not to be the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be the eldritch himself. On the off-chance Wiggles isn't the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be town, based off various arguments that Ferryman has made against wiggles. 2) If Tnkted is mafia, I believe Navillus to also be mafia because Tnkted chose to ignore what Navillus said at the start of day 1 about being a townie, before looking a few posts further and voting Palmar based off his joke, this would also make Palmar innocent in my eyes. Again, this is perfectly inversed.
While your looking into people that havn't said much: Is it just me, or does Chaos keep talking about going into more detail while never actually doing so?
On August 24 2011 12:37 chaos13 wrote: I haven't got time to devote to proper posting tonight. I've skimmed through everything so far, and I'm glad to see that the spam has cut down and we've got good discussion going. My initial thoughts: 1. Palmar probably isn't scum. The case against him is claiming that a joke response was a scum slip. 2. People pushing for lynching Palmar based on the above are dumb or scum. If they've got a good reason (haven't seen any so far) then it's not suspicious. 3. tnkted is probably scum 4. Ferryman, you've got a great case on wiggles, but with one problem. You designed that case to prove that he's the EA. What you should be doing is analyzing and then figuring out what he is. Because it was the cause and not the effect, I'm not yet convinced by it.
I'll get something more detailed up tomorrow morning.
On August 24 2011 20:50 chaos13 wrote: Erandorr, since you're around right now, what do you think of tnkted? Was his accusation of Palmar warranted, and does the logic behind it make sense to you?
On August 24 2011 20:57 chaos13 wrote: It's a 48 hour day cycle, isn't it? That's what the OP states.
On August 24 2011 21:19 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I find it strange that Tnkted found more reason to vote for Palmar than Navillus, and in fact let Navillus' whole first post slide. Am I alone here?
Not at all. However, I'm not always the best scumhunter, so I'd like to call on the analysis skills of Jackal58. Jackal, what do you think of tnkted's play so far in this game?
I'm also going to vote tnkted, since I can always change it later if need be.
On August 24 2011 01:49 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Vote: Navillus
On August 24 2011 01:52 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Palmar
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: TheFerryman
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Tnkted
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote MrWiggles
Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why?
At the moment, my views hinge on two important people 1) If MrWiggles turns out not to be the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be the eldritch himself. On the off-chance Wiggles isn't the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be town, based off various arguments that Ferryman has made against wiggles. 2) If Tnkted is mafia, I believe Navillus to also be mafia because Tnkted chose to ignore what Navillus said at the start of day 1 about being a townie, before looking a few posts further and voting Palmar based off his joke, this would also make Palmar innocent in my eyes. Again, this is perfectly inversed.
You wanna redo that one champ.
Oh my mistake, it was supposed to signify one or the other.
On August 25 2011 08:46 Jackal58 wrote: If anybody ever accuses me of tunneling again I'm going to bitch slap them. Ferryman we get it. You think Wiggles is the EH. You may very well be right. Guess what? Right now I don't care about the EH. But you sure as hell do. You are either the psych or scum. I know you have a very good grasp on how this game works. You are also on the opposite end of the brilliance spectrum from Cyber_cheese. Put your efforts into something other than tunneling your EH suspect. Please. I'm filtering all of you from most to least interesting so I'm going to be a while.
Lynching the EH gives us a free day, which is why I want him dead. It also removes a major threat. But fair enough, I'll lay off wiggles, I've made my case abundantly clear by now.
On August 24 2011 01:49 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Vote: Navillus
On August 24 2011 01:52 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Palmar
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: TheFerryman
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Tnkted
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote MrWiggles
Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why?
At the moment, my views hinge on two important people 1) If MrWiggles turns out not to be the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be the eldritch himself. On the off-chance Wiggles isn't the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be town, based off various arguments that Ferryman has made against wiggles. 2) If Tnkted is mafia, I believe Navillus to also be mafia because Tnkted chose to ignore what Navillus said at the start of day 1 about being a townie, before looking a few posts further and voting Palmar based off his joke, this would also make Palmar innocent in my eyes. Again, this is perfectly inversed.
Your logic is simplistic, you are aware townies can be wrong, are you not? And as town we have to defend those we think to be town, sometimes that means we end up lynching town and townies sometimes end up defending scum. You are making ties which are simply incorrect.
@Wiggles, you ask me for scum-reads, well, so far you are the only one that sticks out to me, I'm suspicious of JeeJee, but I haven't yet caught up with his meta (reading through games takes a while), however I certainly have my eye on him. Most other people have not posted enough or posts that have enough content at least that I can have a strong read on them. I agree that Eiii lurking is bad, but its certainly not out of character, look at sleeper cell mafia where he has a grand total of about 4 posts day 1. I'd actually be ok with lynching him, to establish a precedent of killing lurkers and to promote a more discussion favored atmosphere, but only if we can't get 7 people to vote for you.
Anyway, I'm off for quite a while now, so I'll answer questions when I get back.
I am going to focus on scumhunting because only a very bad EH would make it obvious enough who they are that we could correctly lynch them day 1. So first I would like to quickly draw attention to
On August 25 2011 07:41 TheFerryman wrote:If you are going to lynch cyber I want someone who is going to take responsibility for the lynch, rather than have a bunch of people push a green lynch and then say "he was stupid anyway, its his fault" and no-one ends up being responsible.
You want him lynched Navillus? Are you willing to own up to it if he flips green? Why is the case against him more convincing than the case against wiggles?
Now this is a standard scum play, let town accuse someone then set it up for the accuser to get lynched if the accused flips town this is illogical the full argument that you would need to accept to make this make sense includes it being impossible for a townie to mislynch, or to be wrong, I think we can all agree that this is not the case and this argument simply leads to what are essentially revenge lynches.
That said I think there are scummier people this game, namely Cyber_Cheese, it could be argued that he isn't scum just playing badly, I happen to think both are true, he's just supported too scummy things for me to let him go. He likes random lynching, is saying he's fine taking the lynch, (if he were actually fine with it that might be a town thing but in what I've read people saying that tend to be scum) he's jumped all over the place with his voting with very little reasoning, and overall I'm getting the sense from him that he's trying really hard to stay active, but is just throwing things out there without actually thinking about anything (see his random voting, the giant listing of fractions, and his joke) and in general this attempt to stay really active gives me a really guilty feel from him SO
On August 24 2011 04:22 tnkted wrote: If anyone else has a stronger read that can convince me I would lynch them instead, but for d1 lynch palmar is my vote.
Your immediate jump on Palmar is scummy. I understood that what he made was a joke. He was directly poking at me.
On August 24 2011 03:15 tnkted wrote: Wait a minute.
how does insanity effect mafia? Do their kills fail or something?
Nice effort.
On August 24 2011 05:29 tnkted wrote: I don't think he's acted any scummier than Palmar, but Palmar has a better excuse to lynch. Navillus said the sort of thing I said all the time when I was a newbie. Palmar said something that could either be a joke or a slip and I'm rating the chances of either at 50-50.
This is so freaking scummy I had to go brush my teeth.
Pick it up Twinkles. I'm really not liking what I'm seeing.
On August 25 2011 09:01 Navillus wrote: I am going to focus on scumhunting because only a very bad EH would make it obvious enough who they are that we could correctly lynch them day 1. So first I would like to quickly draw attention to
On August 25 2011 07:41 TheFerryman wrote:If you are going to lynch cyber I want someone who is going to take responsibility for the lynch, rather than have a bunch of people push a green lynch and then say "he was stupid anyway, its his fault" and no-one ends up being responsible.
You want him lynched Navillus? Are you willing to own up to it if he flips green? Why is the case against him more convincing than the case against wiggles?
Now this is a standard scum play, let town accuse someone then set it up for the accuser to get lynched if the accused flips town this is illogical the full argument that you would need to accept to make this make sense includes it being impossible for a townie to mislynch, or to be wrong, I think we can all agree that this is not the case and this argument simply leads to what are essentially revenge lynches.
That said I think there are scummier people this game, namely Cyber_Cheese, it could be argued that he isn't scum just playing badly, I happen to think both are true, he's just supported too scummy things for me to let him go. He likes random lynching, is saying he's fine taking the lynch, (if he were actually fine with it that might be a town thing but in what I've read people saying that tend to be scum) he's jumped all over the place with his voting with very little reasoning, and overall I'm getting the sense from him that he's trying really hard to stay active, but is just throwing things out there without actually thinking about anything (see his random voting, the giant listing of fractions, and his joke) and in general this attempt to stay really active gives me a really guilty feel from him SO
That said I think there are scummier people this game, namely Cyber_Cheese, it could be argued that he isn't scum just playing badly, I happen to think both are true, he's just supported too scummy things for me to let him go. He likes random lynching, is saying he's fine taking the lynch, (if he were actually fine with it that might be a town thing but in what I've read people saying that tend to be scum) he's jumped all over the place with his voting with very little reasoning, and overall I'm getting the sense from him that he's trying really hard to stay active, but is just throwing things out there without actually thinking about anything (see his random voting, the giant listing of fractions, and his joke) and in general this attempt to stay really active gives me a really guilty feel from him SO
If the last sentince of that paragraph was not "in general this attempt to stay really active gives me a really guilty feel from him SO" You might have a point there, and the tl;dr i summized might actually be inaccurate
So I'm going to briefly respond to and say I am not promoting lurkers because I was saying your specific attempt to stay active looks really suspicious and specifically how you're staying active with all these useless and unwarranted posts and votes, now I'm going to ignore you unless you come up with something brilliant because I already know what you think about this accusation. Now for someone else, tnkted for example, what do you think about this?
Okay, enough of this, I´m voting, there´s not that much time left anyway. I´ve been following the talk about Wiggles and Cyber, and until two hours ago, my reads were misunderstood Town on Wiggles, and noobtown on Cyber. However, after Cybers wall of text about probabilities, it got a bit too much, there are just so many scumtells. Cyber has too many weird policies and strategies, and ways to justify his actions. There are two things I´m unsure about, first his fascination with policy for Blues, and also the lack of connection to other players, few defend him, noone appear to be coaching him out of this mess. The first could just as easily be a scumtell, the second doesn´t confirm scum, but it doesn´t free him of suspicions either. Scum want to get rid of weak links. From my overall read, I´m betting he´s Scum.
On August 24 2011 01:49 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Vote: Navillus
On August 24 2011 01:52 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Palmar
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: TheFerryman
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Tnkted
On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote MrWiggles
Please tell me what your actual scum reads are, with reasons. Do you still think that all the people you voted for are scum, or do you believe some of them to be town now? Why?
At the moment, my views hinge on two important people 1) If MrWiggles turns out not to be the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be the eldritch himself. On the off-chance Wiggles isn't the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be town, based off various arguments that Ferryman has made against wiggles. 2) If Tnkted is mafia, I believe Navillus to also be mafia because Tnkted chose to ignore what Navillus said at the start of day 1 about being a townie, before looking a few posts further and voting Palmar based off his joke, this would also make Palmar innocent in my eyes. Again, this is perfectly inversed.
Ok, several things are happening right now that need to stop.
1. Wifom. Go google 'wine in front of me' if you don't understand what this is. The post I just quoted was distilled seven times from fruit of the wifom bush, and if you were to drink it you'd get so drunk on overthought you'd end up throwing up all over qatol and get yourself banned. 2. Talk about 'taking responsibility for the lynch'. No, that's stupid, thats not how days generally work. Whoever gets lynched d1 gets lynched because the best case was made against them. The people who pushed that lynch the hardest aren't 'responsible' anymore than the people that they convinced. The arguement was just convincing. That's it.
If we lynch cyber_cheese, tomorrow I might be the one that's most to blame, but I'm no more responsible and it doesn't make me any scummier if he does flip green. There are thousands of townies that have pushed a wrong read and got somebody innocent lynched; the fact that they were SURE that their target is town doesn't make them scum, it just makes them wrong. That shit happens in mafia.
3. The same principle applies for things like 'x defended y and y flipped mafia so x must also be mafia'. This is erronious thinking; there's nothing stopping mafia from defending certain townies to gain town cred. Mafia doesn't care who gets lynched as long as its not one of them, and often times mafia will try to bus their own teammates to get town cred. Town credit is more important to mafia than almost anything else, because it's a coin that can be spent at lylo for a free win.
Ok, because I'm on the verge of being lynched I took an objective look over my posts, and realised something. The people least afraid of looking like scum are town, and in most games they don't even realise they are doing it. I've done the not caring a little bit too much apparently. I would promote discussion on chaos and eiii before putting the nail in my coffin.
On August 25 2011 09:52 Erandorr wrote: also please stop this tldr shit . it bothers lazy people like me . if you do that at least use colors and pictures to keep me interested k?
On August 25 2011 10:22 Navillus wrote: ##Extension, I want more time on this
There were some changes, I don´t think extension is something we can vote to get, instead the day is extended by 24 hours if we don´t have a majority vote, which is currently at 7 votes on the same person at the deadline.
On August 25 2011 10:22 Navillus wrote: ##Extension, I want more time on this
we only get two extensions so i would much rather wait till we need more discussion later in the game for an extension. @jackal Did you read that we get an extra day if we lynch the EH? I think we should focus on lynching scum when we have a good candidate like Cheese today and if we don't I think the case on wiggles is quite strong.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
Sorry I didn't put ##unvote in this post ##unvote ##vote Cyber_Cheese
On August 25 2011 10:22 Navillus wrote: ##Extension, I want more time on this
There were some changes, I don´t think extension is something we can vote to get, instead the day is extended by 24 hours if we don´t have a majority vote, which is currently at 7 votes on the same person at the deadline.
Oh thought he did that and left the vote, in that case-
##Unvote
Actually I was going to do that anyway because I do not believe that Cyber_Cheese is scum, just really bad town. First off as he pointed out he has been extremely active and in the spotlight, now I attacked this in a post and it's WIFOM if we go back and forth saying "town stays active b/c they're confident" "scum tries harder to appear town" so I want to say both possibilities are left open but in general I believe it is much more of a townie thing to stay really active, and I think if he's as noobish as he seems, which I believe he is, then he would have stayed much quieter as mafia. Now the obvious question is why then did I attack him and vote for him? I did so to try to gauge reactions, I actually thought there was more time left to do so but there isn't so I'm pulling it back early. But I wanted to give people the chance to defend him and no one did, this is what makes me not want to lynch him. There are only 3 scum this game, and while their KP is not dependent on any of them surviving it still would be terrible for the scum if they lost 1/3 of their team day1. So the facts that this bandwagon formed extremely easily and no one has stepped up to defend Cyber_Cheese (the one possible exception was Ferryman trying to hold me responsible for any lynch on Cyber, but their later conversation convinced me they're not scumbuddies) make me think he's town enough that we should at least take an extension rather than lynch him right now.
On August 25 2011 09:52 Erandorr wrote: also please stop this tldr shit . it bothers lazy people like me . if you do that at least use colors and pictures to keep me interested k?
Sure thing do you want me to read you a bedtime story or do you just wanna do the picture book before you go beddy bye
Personally, cybercheese comes across as a very inexperienced and new player. He's trying to be active, and it seems like he's trying to contribute. However, people think he's scummy because of the things he's trying to push. To me, though, he seems to just be pushing things that are bad for town, because he truly believes that they are good. I don't think that a scum team would actually let one of their members post in such an obviously anti-town way (unless I was the leader :p), to the point where he's going to get lynched on day 1. As well, why have a completely new player push anti-town ideas? I get that it might be that he isn't the greatest loss to their team if he's lynched, but it also seems like he would have the lowest chance from his scum team to actually accomplish his objectives and convince people, meaning that there isn't much use in letting him post it in the first place. All in all, he looks scummy, but I think this is because he's new, more than because he's actually scum.
I'm not going to vote for him now, but if it comes down to it, I'll vote him before I go to bed, to help make sure a lynch happens, and because of the fact that even though he doesn't seem to be scum to me currently, there's still a better chance of him being scum than myself, when I know my own alignment.
So, I'd like people to discuss Eiii. What are your thoughts on this player? Do you think he's scummy? Do you think it's worth lynching a lurker day 1 to dissuade against it in further days, when there are no other means, such as vig shots? Will you help me vote for him?
Right now, a lot of the discussion seems to be about myself or Cybercheese, and this is letting a lot of people lurk by with little to no posts of substance.
On August 24 2011 07:23 Eiii wrote: ...and right away wiggles and palmar make themselves the topics of the day.
On August 24 2011 01:12 Palmar wrote: Right.
This is not what happened. My win condition is to eliminate all threats to town. I did not slip, you're trying to manufacture evidence out of something that doesn't exist. My joke can't even be shrugged off as bad town play because nothing exists in it that would indicate I'm not town.
This post sets off a lot of alarm bells for me. So many that I'm just gonna go ahead and ##vote Palmar
Wiggle's plan is awful and super-pro EA, yeah, but the more interesting part of his posts to me is how much he's pushing that everyone should breadcrumb. This is my third try on typing up something about breadcrumbs, and I'm not at all sure what to think about them anymore. They can be really useful in piecing everything together lategame, yeah, but I'm really worried about how they can be used to manipulate town. Breadcrumbing pro-town stuff all game long and then revealing it all when it's LYLO or something is a really good plan for smart scum. So our only option would be to look back at people's crumbs after they die, which again leaves town open to manipulation if scum can make some really good connections that aren't there. So basically, the only way we should trust any sort of breadcrumbing scheme if if the person who made the crumbs claims them and then flips town. And, if that's the case... why do we even need breadcrumbs? I understand that, especially in a game like this where the blues' actions are so critical, it's really appealing to try to set up a system where everyone can deduce what happened, but looking at the setup, I don't think it's a good idea in this game.
alright I hope that made sense. One more thing: What happens if an insane doctor visits EA?
On August 24 2011 07:35 Palmar wrote: Care to explain what alarms it sets off? You seem to be perfectly fine with throwing down a vote based on nothing but "setting off alarms".
You made a post containing something that could be taken as scummy, tnk pointed it out, you go 'derp' and tell him to stop looking for things that aren't there. So far so good.
Then, once tnk pushes you a bit, you get really defensive. That post I quoted just doesn't feel like a post that a comfortable player makes.
He has a grand total of two posts this game.
In the first one, he doesn't do a good job explaining why he thinks Palmar is scummy, and then votes for him. He then spends a great deal of time talking about breadcrumbs. However, the way he goes about it, lets him say almost nothing in a large amount of text. Basically, he goes "This is good sometimes, but other times it isn't", before coming to the conclusion he doesn't think it's a great idea, which doesn't really follow from what he was saying, and is based on "looking at the set-up", which he doesn't bother to explain. So, he has a nice wall of text, that essentially says nothing, before he comes to a conclusion based on premises not even mentioned in his post.
His second post, he just says "You reacted weird", but he never goes further than that, or tries to add more pressure to Palmar. As well, he spends no time trying to convince others that Palmar is scummy, and completely leaves the thread.
This is also disconcerting, because he had time to post on TL today, but has not chimed in on any of the discussion that has been happening in the last 24 hours. I think he's a good candidate for a scummy lurker, and would like to see what he's thinking right now.
Also, besides me, who do you believe to be scummy, Ferryman?
Okay there's no way that everyone is lurking right before the lynch, seriously someone who is town, read my post and think about it Cyber had no one defending him and got bandwagoned in 2 seconds flat, it's very unlikely that he's scum and there are definitely better candidates
Oh dammit the lynch is 12 hours from now, I forgot that the clock above the reply box is KST military time it will say 23:45 when it is, not 11:45 derp
On August 25 2011 08:48 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While your looking into people that havn't said much: Is it just me, or does Chaos keep talking about going into more detail while never actually doing so?
Yeah I know, this week is really busy. I'm hoping I have a little more time at home next week.
I'll have a proper full-length analysis on tnkted up in an hour or less.
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Oh!? You have a win condition other than winning with town?
derp.
lololo
#vote palmar
To begin with, we have him attacking an apparent scum slip by Palmar. Anyone with eyes can see that his slip was intended as a joke post, but apparently that's worth a vote.
On August 24 2011 01:25 tnkted wrote: ...... okay. Nice crumb.
##unvote
...and a crumb is worth an unvote.
On August 24 2011 01:25 tnkted wrote: Oh wait, the PMs are posted in the OP.
NEVERMIND
##vote palmar
And then a realization that it could have been a faked crumb is worth voting again.
On August 24 2011 09:45 tnkted wrote: Ferryman, if you are new, then welcome to mafia! You have a bright future here, and if you're town mafia will probably want to hit you n1.
In this case though, I think you might be right but lynching palmar is a better move here. Sir Jesse Wiggles ESQ (duke of yorkshire) is a notoriously difficult person to read at the best of times because he plays so close to the chest, and I've written my share of analysis on him and been wrong every time.
That being said, your evidence makes a lot of sense, and if we don't have any other leads tomorrow I'd be totally happy gettin' wiggy wit' it. But right now, palmar is a better lynch because
A) His response to the FOS has been very scummy B) The slip thing I mentioned earlier C) It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.
Keep your eye on Wiggles and if you find anything else we'll act on it. For now though, Palmar is scummier than wiggles and I'd rather lynch him,
Just some advice: the first post you posted felt to me like more of a pressure post (ie it wasn't very convincing) but the second one (the meta one) was much more convincing (wiggles rather comprehensive response notwithstanding).
Here is where tnkted really begins to show his scumminess. The first paragraph can be ignored. Paragraph #2 contains a multitude of mafia traits. To begin with, he agrees with Ferryman's position, but still feels that Palmar is a better lynch. Why? Because Wiggles is tough to get a read on. This is a cautious wishy-washy stance. He allows an excuse for being wrong, and is stuck on tunnel-mode on Palmar, because that is a perfect cover for mafia to hide under. Paragraph 3\ABC Par. 3 supports the wishy-washy scum stance seen earlier. The ABC's display a terribly weak case against Palmar. He states that Palmar's response to being accused was very scummy, but fails to explain how. Even a general statement of how it was scummy would be better, but there is absolutely nothing here. Then back to the "slip", and finally closing with a careless attitude towards lynching town. We should never want to lynch town. Day 1 is just as or more important than any other day, because if we can lessen their numbers now, they have fewer kills on N1 and beyond.
On August 24 2011 23:28 tnkted wrote: Okay, lets talk about Navillus and Palmar.
This is the reason why some people were suspecting Narvillus:
On August 24 2011 00:20 Navillus wrote: Dammit I need to role something more interesting than townie one of these days... anyway, I've never played a mini before so I'm very open to any mini-specific advice anyone has.
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Which one of those seems scummier to you? To me, the second comment seems scummier by far.
Now, I'd be willing to believe that it was a joke if it wasn't for Palmar's response:
This is not what happened. My win condition is to eliminate all threats to town. I did not slip, you're trying to manufacture evidence out of something that doesn't exist. My joke can't even be shrugged off as bad town play because nothing exists in it that would indicate I'm not town.
This is a very sullen, angry response. Rather than joke around with my pressure and OMGUS, like Narvillus's did:
On August 24 2011 01:29 Navillus wrote: ##Vote: Jackal58
OMGUS
Narvillus wasn't worried about the pressure because he was having fun and joking around; he knew he was innocent and he knew that jackal thought he was innocent. Meanwhile, Palmar's FIRST INSTINCT upon being accused was to lash out. his FIRST INSTINCT is to accuse me of manufacturing evidence. Is that a reasonable response? I sure don't think it is.
So that's my case for accusing palmar. You can find it convincing, or you can find it unconvincing, I'm not really concerned about it. Much of what I just outlined happened in my head unconciously and I'm sort of explaining my scumdar pings after the fact, if that makes any sense.
So according to tnkted his vote on Palmar was a joke, and he didn't think it was actually a slip. He states that Palmar actually defending himself was scummy because a player like Navillus was relaxed and joked around, because the vote on him wasn't serious. Comparing these two gives a solid impression that tnkted's vote on Palmar was not intended to be serious, which means that only Palmar's reaction to it should have been used as evidence. As can be seen by the previous post I quoted, however, tnkted is still using it as proof that Palmar is mafia, still considering it a scum slip. That's a rather large hole in his argument I'd say.
On August 25 2011 09:51 tnkted wrote:
Ok, several things are happening right now that need to stop.
1. Wifom. Go google 'wine in front of me' if you don't understand what this is. The post I just quoted was distilled seven times from fruit of the wifom bush, and if you were to drink it you'd get so drunk on overthought you'd end up throwing up all over qatol and get yourself banned. 2. Talk about 'taking responsibility for the lynch'. No, that's stupid, thats not how days generally work. Whoever gets lynched d1 gets lynched because the best case was made against them. The people who pushed that lynch the hardest aren't 'responsible' anymore than the people that they convinced. The arguement was just convincing. That's it.
If we lynch cyber_cheese, tomorrow I might be the one that's most to blame, but I'm no more responsible and it doesn't make me any scummier if he does flip green. There are thousands of townies that have pushed a wrong read and got somebody innocent lynched; the fact that they were SURE that their target is town doesn't make them scum, it just makes them wrong. That shit happens in mafia.
3. The same principle applies for things like 'x defended y and y flipped mafia so x must also be mafia'. This is erronious thinking; there's nothing stopping mafia from defending certain townies to gain town cred. Mafia doesn't care who gets lynched as long as its not one of them, and often times mafia will try to bus their own teammates to get town cred. Town credit is more important to mafia than almost anything else, because it's a coin that can be spent at lylo for a free win.
1. Nothing scummy about this content. Nothing town either.
2. In this section of his post, tnkted wants to remove responsibility from players for mislynches. That is a ridiculously scummy attitude. The people who pushed the lynch DO have to be responsible for it, otherwise mafia can get away with coming up with a case on a slightly scummy townie and get a mislynch every day, and according to you get away with it scot-free. If you're pushing for someone's lynch and they flip green, then you do get a bit scummier for it. If it happens consistently we really need to take a look at you and sort things out.
3. Wrong again. You want to take away the only tool we have for linking mafia to each other. When somebody flips red, or green for that matter, we look back at who they interacted with and how they interacted with them. You're pushing a seriously mafia agenda here. Responsibility is key in this game, because mafia without responsibility don't have to worry about anything.
I also think Cyber is more likely town than mafia. He's far too free with his opinions and and open with his posting. New mafia have a far guiltier mindset and are likely to lurk rather than post as actively as he has so far. I just don't like the wagon on him at all right now.
Just throwing it out there, I don´t want us to waste an Extension on Day 1. With only two of them, I feel they are better used on Day 2 and Day 3, when we will need the extra time more, and when we have more to discuss. I´m not saying Day 1 is a wasted effort, there have been extensive analysis and among the 5 top suspects, there is probably one or two anti-town, but we are still just fumbling in the dark. It´s too easy to sit in your own bubble and do WIFOM, without any real evidence to base it on. 24 hours more might give us a better chance to find Scum, but they are better used later on, when there is more concrete evidence to look at.
If at all possible, I want us to agree on a lynch within the next 7 hours.
well im going to be away a while just in case i miss the deadline, im going to ##Vote Tnkted for a few reasons 1) and lets start with the petty one, he's the one who first bought me up as a suspected scum, in an effort to save his own hide 2) I voted for him previously before stopping to vote for the EH, since im not sure which of wiggles or ferryman i believe to be EH more, Tnkted seems like a safer lynch option 3) Chaos made a pretty convincing post, and it wasn't the first of it's ilk
On August 25 2011 10:22 Navillus wrote: ##Extension, I want more time on this
we only get two extensions so i would much rather wait till we need more discussion later in the game for an extension. @jackal Did you read that we get an extra day if we lynch the EH? I think we should focus on lynching scum when we have a good candidate like Cheese today and if we don't I think the case on wiggles is quite strong.
Didn't realize that until Ferryman pointed it out to me.
Alright, I think the CC lynch is a mistake. People have made exactly the argument I would already-- his posts are blatant and frequent, there's not even a hint of him trying to do anything sneaky, etc.
Wiggles, sorry about the rambling post on breadcrumbs. I meant the conclusion to be solidly negative, trying to dissuade people from breadcrumbing by explaining how useless they are without a way to solidly claim before death. I looked at the setup, and saw no DTs!
Tnk looks like the best lynch to me, as well. Jumping on someone who's playing badly but not scummily and pushing them hard for a lynch seems more like scum trying to keep from getting lynched day one than anything else. ##unvote ##vote tnkted
I don't really see it. Drawing evidence to support a pretty scary-looking case against you-- especially evidence that's a frustrating, memorable, and recent experience of just about the same situation-- isn't all that damning to me.
On August 25 2011 20:25 Eiii wrote: I don't really see it. Drawing evidence to support a pretty scary-looking case against you-- especially evidence that's a frustrating, memorable, and recent experience of just about the same situation-- isn't all that damning to me.
yes, but look at the way tnkted is posting.
I'd rather lynch almost everyone in this town than him. Wiggles is the alternative wagon, and while I have no clue how Ferryman goes about pinning him EA vs just "anti-town", I think the case against wiggles is much stronger.
Wiggles is a great player, but I just don't think it'll work in our favour this game.
The more I think about it, the more I think Tnkted is much in the same boat that I put myself in to, he took his intial theory a little bit too far and spoke too much That said, I'm keeping my vote on him because of two reasons: 1) He might actually be scum 2) I have to have a vote placed and he's still what I consider the safest bet
On August 25 2011 21:24 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The more I think about it, the more I think Tnkted is much in the same boat that I put myself in to, he took his intial theory a little bit too far and spoke too much That said, I'm keeping my vote on him because of two reasons: 1) He might actually be scum 2) I have to have a vote placed and he's still what I consider the safest bet
Why are you more concerned with not being wrong than killing scum?
Navillus you need to vote to avoid any penalties or being replaced/kicked. As of 21:29 KST this is the updated vote count. Do not refer to the OP vote count until you see a more recent edit stamp there.
The method I use to keep track of votes requires a consistent voting etiquette. Follow the proper format. You haz been warned.
On August 25 2011 21:24 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The more I think about it, the more I think Tnkted is much in the same boat that I put myself in to, he took his intial theory a little bit too far and spoke too much That said, I'm keeping my vote on him because of two reasons: 1) He might actually be scum 2) I have to have a vote placed and he's still what I consider the safest bet
Why are you more concerned with not being wrong than killing scum?
Uh yea I see how it could come across that way in hindsight I don't think he's innocent, I'm just saying I think he made himself look guilty in the same manner I did, more or less And noones specifically come out to defend him either if i'm not mistaken I'm looking for parallels that reflect in my play to learn the differences between sc2 and forum mafia as I go
On August 25 2011 20:42 chaos13 wrote: The only thing I don't like about the tnkted lynch right now is how quickly people are switching without actually providing new analysis. And this:
On August 24 2011 04:22 tnkted wrote: If anyone else has a stronger read that can convince me I would lynch them instead, but for d1 lynch palmar is my vote.
Your immediate jump on Palmar is scummy. I understood that what he made was a joke. He was directly poking at me.
On August 24 2011 05:29 tnkted wrote: I don't think he's acted any scummier than Palmar, but Palmar has a better excuse to lynch. Navillus said the sort of thing I said all the time when I was a newbie. Palmar said something that could either be a joke or a slip and I'm rating the chances of either at 50-50.
This is so freaking scummy I had to go brush my teeth.
Pick it up Twinkles. I'm really not liking what I'm seeing.
On August 25 2011 21:24 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The more I think about it, the more I think Tnkted is much in the same boat that I put myself in to, he took his intial theory a little bit too far and spoke too much That said, I'm keeping my vote on him because of two reasons: 1) He might actually be scum 2) I have to have a vote placed and he's still what I consider the safest bet
Why are you more concerned with not being wrong than killing scum?
Uh yea I see how it could come across that way in hindsight I don't think he's innocent, I'm just saying I think he made himself look guilty in the same manner I did, more or less And noones specifically come out to defend him either if i'm not mistaken I'm looking for parallels that reflect in my play to learn the differences between sc2 and forum mafia as I go
Thing is, you're new to forum mafia. tnkted is rather good at forum mafia. None of his play so far reflects this.
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Oh!? You have a win condition other than winning with town?
derp.
lololo
#vote palmar
To begin with, we have him attacking an apparent scum slip by Palmar. Anyone with eyes can see that his slip was intended as a joke post, but apparently that's worth a vote.
This was a joke pressure anyway, to which palmar responded scummilly.
On August 24 2011 09:45 tnkted wrote: Ferryman, if you are new, then welcome to mafia! You have a bright future here, and if you're town mafia will probably want to hit you n1.
In this case though, I think you might be right but lynching palmar is a better move here. Sir Jesse Wiggles ESQ (duke of yorkshire) is a notoriously difficult person to read at the best of times because he plays so close to the chest, and I've written my share of analysis on him and been wrong every time.
That being said, your evidence makes a lot of sense, and if we don't have any other leads tomorrow I'd be totally happy gettin' wiggy wit' it. But right now, palmar is a better lynch because
A) His response to the FOS has been very scummy B) The slip thing I mentioned earlier C) It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.
Keep your eye on Wiggles and if you find anything else we'll act on it. For now though, Palmar is scummier than wiggles and I'd rather lynch him,
Just some advice: the first post you posted felt to me like more of a pressure post (ie it wasn't very convincing) but the second one (the meta one) was much more convincing (wiggles rather comprehensive response notwithstanding).
Here is where tnkted really begins to show his scumminess. The first paragraph can be ignored. Paragraph #2 contains a multitude of mafia traits. To begin with, he agrees with Ferryman's position, but still feels that Palmar is a better lynch. Why? Because Wiggles is tough to get a read on. This is a cautious wishy-washy stance. He allows an excuse for being wrong, and is stuck on tunnel-mode on Palmar, because that is a perfect cover for mafia to hide under. Paragraph 3\ABC
I bolded and underlined the biggest reason, which you simply skimmed over. Wiggles being tough to get a read on isn't why palmar is a better lynch, but it IS why I'm not swayed by his analysis. Your arguements here are extremely misleading.
Par. 3 supports the wishy-washy scum stance seen earlier. The ABC's display a terribly weak case against Palmar. He states that Palmar's response to being accused was very scummy, but fails to explain how. Even a general statement of how it was scummy would be better, but there is absolutely nothing here. Then back to the "slip", and finally closing with a careless attitude towards lynching town. We should never want to lynch town. Day 1 is just as or more important than any other day, because if we can lessen their numbers now, they have fewer kills on N1 and beyond.
I responded to the underlined portion THE VERY NEXT POST YOU QUOTE. Did you not reread this post before you posted it?
On August 24 2011 23:28 tnkted wrote: Okay, lets talk about Navillus and Palmar.
This is the reason why some people were suspecting Narvillus:
On August 24 2011 00:20 Navillus wrote: Dammit I need to role something more interesting than townie one of these days... anyway, I've never played a mini before so I'm very open to any mini-specific advice anyone has.
versus this:
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Which one of those seems scummier to you? To me, the second comment seems scummier by far.
Now, I'd be willing to believe that it was a joke if it wasn't for Palmar's response:
On August 24 2011 01:12 Palmar wrote: Right.
This is not what happened. My win condition is to eliminate all threats to town. I did not slip, you're trying to manufacture evidence out of something that doesn't exist. My joke can't even be shrugged off as bad town play because nothing exists in it that would indicate I'm not town.
This is a very sullen, angry response. Rather than joke around with my pressure and OMGUS, like Narvillus's did:
On August 24 2011 01:29 Navillus wrote: ##Vote: Jackal58
OMGUS
Narvillus wasn't worried about the pressure because he was having fun and joking around; he knew he was innocent and he knew that jackal thought he was innocent. Meanwhile, Palmar's FIRST INSTINCT upon being accused was to lash out. his FIRST INSTINCT is to accuse me of manufacturing evidence. Is that a reasonable response? I sure don't think it is.
So that's my case for accusing palmar. You can find it convincing, or you can find it unconvincing, I'm not really concerned about it. Much of what I just outlined happened in my head unconciously and I'm sort of explaining my scumdar pings after the fact, if that makes any sense.
So according to tnkted his vote on Palmar was a joke, and he didn't think it was actually a slip. He states that Palmar actually defending himself was scummy because a player like Navillus was relaxed and joked around, because the vote on him wasn't serious. Comparing these two gives a solid impression that tnkted's vote on Palmar was not intended to be serious, which means that only Palmar's reaction to it should have been used as evidence. As can be seen by the previous post I quoted, however, tnkted is still using it as proof that Palmar is mafia, still considering it a scum slip. That's a rather large hole in his argument I'd say.
Try paraphrasing this sentance out loud. According to this thing he did previously, which he stopped, hes STILL doing the thing that he stopped doing. This sort of obvious logical error is a result of
1. poor reasoning 2. tunnelling, which, I remind you, you accused ME of doing above, calling it scummy behavior.
Ok, several things are happening right now that need to stop.
1. Wifom. Go google 'wine in front of me' if you don't understand what this is. The post I just quoted was distilled seven times from fruit of the wifom bush, and if you were to drink it you'd get so drunk on overthought you'd end up throwing up all over qatol and get yourself banned. 2. Talk about 'taking responsibility for the lynch'. No, that's stupid, thats not how days generally work. Whoever gets lynched d1 gets lynched because the best case was made against them. The people who pushed that lynch the hardest aren't 'responsible' anymore than the people that they convinced. The arguement was just convincing. That's it.
If we lynch cyber_cheese, tomorrow I might be the one that's most to blame, but I'm no more responsible and it doesn't make me any scummier if he does flip green. There are thousands of townies that have pushed a wrong read and got somebody innocent lynched; the fact that they were SURE that their target is town doesn't make them scum, it just makes them wrong. That shit happens in mafia.
3. The same principle applies for things like 'x defended y and y flipped mafia so x must also be mafia'. This is erronious thinking; there's nothing stopping mafia from defending certain townies to gain town cred. Mafia doesn't care who gets lynched as long as its not one of them, and often times mafia will try to bus their own teammates to get town cred. Town credit is more important to mafia than almost anything else, because it's a coin that can be spent at lylo for a free win.
1. Nothing scummy about this content. Nothing town either.
I usually hate talking about 'town atmosphere' but there was talk about people 'taking responsibility' and constant wifoming. How is an attempt to remove that shit bad for town, especially in a game with so many new players?
2. In this section of his post, tnkted wants to remove responsibility from players for mislynches. That is a ridiculously scummy attitude. The people who pushed the lynch DO have to be responsible for it, otherwise mafia can get away with coming up with a case on a slightly scummy townie and get a mislynch every day, and according to you get away with it scot-free. If you're pushing for someone's lynch and they flip green, then you do get a bit scummier for it. If it happens consistently we really need to take a look at you and sort things out.
Would you want to see a townie policy lynched for promoting a bad lynch? Then we lose 2 and a day for a mislynch instead of 1. This seems like what you're promoting here, and it's an extremely scummy attitude. And yes, if the mafia can convince the town that someone innocent is guilty, then that person is going to get lynched and policy lynching the mafia the next day is just fucking stupid. THOUSANDS of games in my experience ended up with a townie tunnelling another townie, getting that townie lynched, while the surviver lasted until endgame. Ask any of the other vets here if policy lynching for a bad lynch is a good idea, they'll tell you exactly the same thing.
3. Wrong again. You want to take away the only tool we have for linking mafia to each other. When somebody flips red, or green for that matter, we look back at who they interacted with and how they interacted with them. You're pushing a seriously mafia agenda here. Responsibility is key in this game, because mafia without responsibility don't have to worry about anything.
So anyone the mafia defends is obviously scum eh? That seems like an easy loophole. If I'm mafia and I defended you, would you suddenly 'become' mafia?
You're misunderstanding how scum operate, which is very strange to me given that I've seen you play a few games. When I play as scum I make it a point to defend people who are being bandwagoned because it gains you town cred. Here's a fact for you: Town cred is the most important thing for the mafia; with town cred they can get away with anything, including acting scummy or dayvigging or shooting the town dt and claiming it.
In fact, to gain town cred, mafia will even sacrifice their own members to the mob. This is so common, theres a word for it: bussing. This alone should demolish your theory; If the mafia only protect other mafia, wouldn't the converse of that be true, that mafia only push townies for lynches?
The fact is, its exceedingly difficult to link mafia together; most mafia hunts end up being a person by person hunt. Two mafia are rarely linked together in a game like this that doesn't have dayroles or weird abilities. We'll have to find out each one individually by themselves. That's how mafia works.
tnkted is mafia.
Conclusion: Chaos13 clearly didn't read very carefully. He seems to have cherry picked my posts in an attempt to make me seem scum. I'm not drawing any conclusions about his alignment from this, but it's not positive.
My thoughts on cyber_cheese coming up after i get to work/attend a few meetings.
[QUOTE]On August 25 2011 21:36 tnkted wrote: I have to change my play or something, I'm suspected of being scum d1 virtually every game I play as town.
[QUOTE]On August 25 2011 12:07 chaos13 wrote: tnkted
[QUOTE]On August 24 2011 00:57 tnkted wrote: [QUOTE]On August 24 2011 00:55 Palmar wrote: [QUOTE]On August 24 2011 00:46 tnkted wrote: [QUOTE]On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.[/QUOTE]
Oh!? You have a win condition other than winning with town?[/QUOTE]
derp. [/QUOTE]
lololo
#vote palmar[/QUOTE]
To begin with, we have him attacking an apparent scum slip by Palmar. Anyone with eyes can see that his slip was intended as a joke post, but apparently that's worth a vote.
This was a joke pressure anyway, to which palmar responded scummilly.
[/QUOTE]
This is pretty much where we can stop. It's joke pressure, meaning you really didn't think what Palmar said was serious, which means you really didn't think it was a genuine slip. But...you're still using it as evidence that Palmar is scum.
Ferryman and Wiggles are away, and not likely to be able to change their votes before the deadline. If we want to avoid an extension, then we can´t rely on them.
As for me, I´m now considering Tnkted to be just as scummy as Cyber, but hiding it better. He is also a veteran player, Cyber can be excused as this is his first game, and I don´t like lynching a player on the first day in his first game. I also feel like there are more connections between Tnkted and other players, this is a weak scumtell but it´s the one thing I was missing when looking at Cyber.
Since yall seem to want to lynch the most active townie on d1...
I'm agreeing with the change of heart about cyber_cheese. His response to pressure was to realize how scummy he was acting and to then try to change his ways. So, ##unvote and ##vote: Palmar.
I've got a series of meetings coming up that will take most of the day, punctured with brief breaks where I can read and catch up on the thread, but I probably won't have time to really post any big ol posts, just a few one-liners.
On August 25 2011 22:29 Palmar wrote: screw it, at least he can't call me mafia.
someone hammer it so we can move on without extending the day.
##Unvote ##Vote tnkted
Palmar, of all players in this game, you looked like the last one that would switch your vote, what changed your mind?
Ferryman has a good argument.
People don't listen to good arguments because they're afraid of being wrong. I just spent XLIV presenting good arguments only to be ignored so people could kill some townies who are obviously town but make silly mistakes.
All I got for that performance was people hating me or thinking I'm scum because I was right, and I told them they were wrong. I don't think tnkted is scum, but whatever, someone else can take the responsibility of convincing us to do the right thing.
If there is ANY chance we can switch to wiggles, that's what I want to do.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
On August 25 2011 22:39 tnkted wrote: I'm used to voting in a separate thread, where formatting doesn't matter as much :x
Hear, hear!
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Oh!? You have a win condition other than winning with town?
derp.
lololo
#vote palmar
Thing is, the lololo thing is too unforced, too reactive and too casual for him to possibly be scum. If he was scum, he'd know I was town and be a little more hesitant to take my "derp" as an admission of slipping up (whereas, it's real intention was to portray the silliness of the accusation upon tnkted).
If he's scum he's really good scum. I don't think he'd ever do what he did there as scum. He could have pushed the same issue, trying to paint my joke as a slip, but he would have gone about it completely differently if he was scum.
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Oh!? You have a win condition other than winning with town?
derp.
lololo
#vote palmar
Thing is, the lololo thing is too unforced, too reactive and too casual for him to possibly be scum. If he was scum, he'd know I was town and be a little more hesitant to take my "derp" as an admission of slipping up (whereas, it's real intention was to portray the silliness of the accusation upon tnkted).
If he's scum he's really good scum. I don't think he'd ever do what he did there as scum. He could have pushed the same issue, trying to paint my joke as a slip, but he would have gone about it completely differently if he was scum.
At first it looked like that, an easygoing joke-vote, but this dance has kept going, you and Tnkted have kept voting on eachother, and pushed weak cases, then later on backtracked to defend the other if it gets too strong. Make up your mind.
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
There´s nothing weird about a pressure vote. Stating that it´s for pressure isn´t bad either, Eiii still has to respond, and Wiggles doesn´t have to answer to people who use that vote as an argument that he´s aggressively trying to lynch at random. I don´t find anything especially scummy about a pressure vote.
There goes our first extension, and we are none the wiser for it. I was hoping to be able to secure a lynch for the deadline, no luck there. I´m off for a few hours.
Alright I hate to bring this up yet again, but I believe I've taken all the cons out of it in it's current implementation, and as such I fear it's been dismissed too soon
The previous version was the rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit
psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 Bear in mind that if we can't prepare a strong argument for the person being the EH, we can still leave it at that and not lynch, and if we vote for the psych he can just not visit that night
On August 26 2011 01:58 tnkted wrote: Sorry for triple post - I'm at work, no time to sit down and do it myself. I just don't want town to languish in afk land.
Why do you not just want to switch the vote over to mr. wiggles?
Ferryman already pointed out some very suspicious stuff in his play, I added a couple of pointers to it. He has a stronger case against him than anyone else currently playing.
And I need to think harder about the implications of Cyber's plan, but I think that agreeing on which person the psych should visit, would indeed be the best way to proceed, that anonymously clears the person visited of being the EA.
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?
You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.
I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote: I wanted to save him from the lynch.
That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?
You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.
I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town.
Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.
On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote: I wanted to save him from the lynch.
That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?
You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.
I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town.
Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.
Havn't we already established lynching the Eldritch Abomination is pro town? we get an extra day
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.
##unvote ##vote Mr. Wiggles
If you read, you can see that Palmar did not in fact try to save Tnkted, or at least, he did a very bad job of it. He did not adequately explain how Tnkted is town, and he did not push the idea that Tnkted was town in a convincing way. All he did, was remove the vote from Tnkted, ensuring that one of town's two extensions would be used on the worst possible day for it. He hasn't done anything to reinforce Tnkted's credibility, or to actually defend against the accusations of being scum, he just forced a no-lynch, which is anti-town by itself.
On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote: I wanted to save him from the lynch.
That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?
You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.
I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town.
Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.
Havn't we already established lynching the Eldritch Abomination is pro town? we get an extra day
We do get an extra day, but it is an extra day much better used later into the game. Day 1 lynches are fairly inaccurate, unless scum makes a major mistake (Like I think Palmar did), and trying to kill the EA now just means that town will be launched into Day 1-2, where it will be exactly more of the same as what we've had for the last 48 hours. We get no new information, and no new leads, because Town will want to kill EA for the extra day, but scum will want to kill EA for the town cred, meaning that all scumhunting put into finding the EA is more or less a null tell. Trying to find the EA on day 1, means that he doesn't have to pretend to hunt for actual mafia, and makes it so that the extra lynch is used on the least optimal day, where town has the least leads and information.
I'm town, but it doesn't even matter if you believe me, because:
I'm town, so I want to kill scum If I'm EA, I want to kill mafia to buy town cred If I'm mafia, I want to kill EA on Day 1, as outlined above
So, do you think I'm EA? Then I'm hunting scum. I know I'm town, and I'm trying to convince you of such, but it shouldn't even matter when you read my analysis, because the end goal is going to be the same. Look at it impartially, and forget that it was written by Mr. Wiggles, whom you think is EA, and then tell me what you think.
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On August 26 2011 02:10 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright I hate to bring this up yet again, but I believe I've taken all the cons out of it in it's current implementation, and as such I fear it's been dismissed too soon
The previous version was the rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit
psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 Bear in mind that if we can't prepare a strong argument for the person being the EH, we can still leave it at that and not lynch, and if we vote for the psych he can just not visit that night
Thoughts? Opinions?
on the caveat that you don't auto-lynch anyone if psych ends up suiciding, then it's workable to try and find out who is the EA. we could use the psych as an EA-cop. i'm in for this.
but you've been posting a lot about plans and not a lot about people, so what do you think about sevryn and palmar's unvote?
Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
Ladies and Gentlemen, it seems like we have allowed ourselves to get distracted from what really matters, from lynching correctly, out of fear, fear of being wrong. I know my case against wiggles has failed to convince some of you. That was... to be expected. Which is why, when I designed my case, I built a trap around it, and ambush into which only a player who is not town aligned would fall. And I must say, Mr.Wiggles fell into the trap, with what could almost be called gusto.
So without further ado
Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is it that mafia hate? They hate being in the spotlight, but most of all they hate being in the spotlight accused as mafia. In fact they'd much rather be considered third party than mafia (see Bumatlarge claiming SK in PTP mafia). The rationale behind it is simple, a third party is less of a threat to the town than the mafia, hence less likely to be killed. Especially if the mafia can quickly redirect focus. Knowing this I made my original accusations of wiggles without mentioning the possibility that he could be town. I clearly made him out to be the horror. Wiggles never called me out on this. A couple other players did, notable chaos13 and Jackal58, but Wiggles did not, he avoided bringing up the issue at all. All he had to do to discredit my argument was say "why does the ferryman not even consider the possibility that I am mafia? Does he know something I don't?" and I would have believed he was town. However, this dosen't happen. Why? Because wiggles is scum and the last thing he wants is to redirect the attention of an analyst to the possibility that he might be mafia. Remember he has more cred and can more easily wiggle out of the lynch as long as people are convinced he is the horror, rather than scum.
Allow me to quote one little tidbit
On August 26 2011 03:45 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.
Wiggles is aware that I haven't called him mafia, and he *brings attention to it* without using it to discredit my argument as to avoid a shift in focus Wiggles is not happy with being called out on being the EH, however to him its still better than being called scum.
There is exactly one post where he mentions any possibility that he could be mafia, and that's to "prove" that the mafia would hunt for the EH day 1, which obviously wiggles cannot be, since he isn't hunting the EH, just the soft target Eiii.
Wiggles is not only not reacting the way a townie would, he's milking my accusation to dodge the possibility of being called mafia and by extension, the lynch.
Wiggles. Scum?
Now, having this fact in mind, combined with the surprising number of people that defended wiggles from my accusation of being the EH, lets revisit the accusations I made, this time considering the possibility that wiggles could be mafia.
Lets take his first post, one more time.
On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote: ##Vote: Eiii Where you at? + Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtrEN-YKLBM
Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity.
So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well)
There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as.
Pros:
-Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary)
Cons:
-Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target.
Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is.
Discuss!
Lets take a careful look at two major points that take place in this post. 1.) Wiggles posts an extremely pro-EH and pro-mafia plan that is going to allow scum to blend in 2.) Wiggles backtracks on his extremely anti-town plan. And proposes another plan that is also anti-town
Point by point now. How is the plan both EH and Mafia favored. Its clear how it helps the EH, and I discussed that in depth, but many people might miss how it helps the mafia. It keeps our attention occupied. Let us say we go through with this plan, and the psychologist claims, and then immediately dies. All of the next day would be spent arguing about lynching the psychologist's target and basically discussing the EH. Which is something that allows the mafia to blend in easily. This whole idea and point of discussion isn't furthering town goals, its giving scum something easy to discuss.
The backtracking, ah the backtracking, I believe I've already talked about that to death, however lets revisit the point once more, for those too lazy to go back and find what I said, backtracking is a method of dodging responsibility if any stupid townies follow the plan, as well as sabotaging the whole point of proposing a plan for discussion. It is also a trait scum wiggles often exhibits, as proven in my analysis of his third party play (there is a reason I chose Insane mafia 2 for my meta example, where the 3rd party was like a scum team, with no fear of getting shot, much like in this game)
The crumbs, or "how the mafia is going to find the doctor". This is a plan that seems innocuous at first, but then you realize the mafia will have an information advantage, in fact this means that if there is ever a successful save the medic is *dead*, given away by his breadcrumbs. If the medic lies then he's risking getting lynched if things don't add up later. This whole idea just makes our medic vulnerable and pushes attention onto the EH over mafia. Remember, the moment the psychologist dies the town is going to be in an uproar discussing his "crumbs", even if we have scum looking right at us, most of the town is going to ignore it.
Also worth mentioning is wiggles explicitly "pressure" vote, which after playing in PYP:I wiggles knows are worthless, since there is no chance of dying of a pressure vote, the victim doesn't feel pressured. Wiggles was there for the postgame, where Ace spelled this out. I doubt he's forgotten so fast, so the logical conclusion is that he is doing this to blend in.
So, lets summarize. 1.) Avoided mentioning the obvious gape in my argument out of fear 2.) Proposes an anti-town plan to "discuss", demonstrating back tracking 3.) Tries to blend in and "discusses" something that allows scum to do the same. 4.) Proposes and plants the idea of crumbing, which is also mafia favored.
That doesn't seem *that* compelling, right? Lets give him the benefit of the doubt and look at another post.
Before we do that though this jumped at me
On August 24 2011 09:26 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Meta is normally a very weak argument to make against someone, and the fact that you use incorrect meta that doesn't take context into example doesn't sit well with me either. But, since you seem to love it so much, then you should be aware that if I'm called scum on Day 1, then I'm town, and if I'm not, then I'm mafia.
Wiggles *knows* better than this, he's played with foolishness and other players who excel at using meta to analyze players. The fact that he says this which he and I both know is wrong, shows to me that he cares more about defending himself than letting facts be set straight. The fact that he has the gall to bring up shallow meta about how he always gets called out day 1, rather than beating my arguments on their own merits shows desperation and more than a little bit of anger . This isn't the town wiggles who rebuts accusations with a level head. I smell fear.
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.
##unvote ##vote Mr. Wiggles
If you read, you can see that Palmar did not in fact try to save Tnkted, or at least, he did a very bad job of it. He did not adequately explain how Tnkted is town, and he did not push the idea that Tnkted was town in a convincing way. All he did, was remove the vote from Tnkted, ensuring that one of town's two extensions would be used on the worst possible day for it. He hasn't done anything to reinforce Tnkted's credibility, or to actually defend against the accusations of being scum, he just forced a no-lynch, which is anti-town by itself.
On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote: I wanted to save him from the lynch.
That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?
You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.
I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town.
Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.
Havn't we already established lynching the Eldritch Abomination is pro town? we get an extra day
We do get an extra day, but it is an extra day much better used later into the game. Day 1 lynches are fairly inaccurate, unless scum makes a major mistake (Like I think Palmar did), and trying to kill the EA now just means that town will be launched into Day 1-2, where it will be exactly more of the same as what we've had for the last 48 hours. We get no new information, and no new leads, because Town will want to kill EA for the extra day, but scum will want to kill EA for the town cred, meaning that all scumhunting put into finding the EA is more or less a null tell. Trying to find the EA on day 1, means that he doesn't have to pretend to hunt for actual mafia, and makes it so that the extra lynch is used on the least optimal day, where town has the least leads and information.
I'm town, but it doesn't even matter if you believe me, because:
I'm town, so I want to kill scum If I'm EA, I want to kill mafia to buy town cred If I'm mafia, I want to kill EA on Day 1, as outlined above
So, do you think I'm EA? Then I'm hunting scum. I know I'm town, and I'm trying to convince you of such, but it shouldn't even matter when you read my analysis, because the end goal is going to be the same. Look at it impartially, and forget that it was written by Mr. Wiggles, whom you think is EA, and then tell me what you think.
What does this post boil down to? Ferryman called me the EH, therefore behave as if I were such. Remember the point about milking my accusation? This is exactly what this post does, it takes it and uses the accusation I made to plant a false idea that lynching wiggles is not the optimal play, and that "wiggles cannot be scum". This is manipulation at its finest gentlemen, this is wiggles taking all possible outcomes and twisting them so that the only possible verdict keeps him from being lynched. Notice how he also uses this post to discredit anyone who accuses him of being the EH since "only mafia want to hunt the EH day 1". This post successfully exhibits *exactly* what scum is going to do when accused of being 3rd party.
Also, wiggle's accusation of Palmar is weak as hell. Wiggles and I both know there is no way Palmar stuck his neck out like that to save tnkted, unless palmar is town. Palmar usually has no issue busing his teammates, you really think he would force a no-lynch and become a focus of accusations if he were scum? Once again wiggles is trying to distract us from himself by "scumhunting" with one of the weakest cases I have ever seen.
Wiggles also shows a strange fascination with lurkers not present in his usual play. For example in XLII wiggles consistently voted and focused on lurkers, stuff like, while pushing around suspicion with questions. Note that wiggles was the GF that game.
On June 17 2011 10:50 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Well, I'm back now, before the flip too.
ILJ seems to have come back in full force, and I'm going to be taking my vote off of him. His recent posting makes me believe that he's likely to be green.
There's also been a new candidate, who's name has been raised as a potential lynch target, Hiro. However, I'm not sure that he's mafia either, based off the "slips" people are saying he's made. I don't think that he's scum, more so than pushing for policy lynching inactives, in a very badly worded way. GG still hasn't shown up, or made any contributory posts. That said, keeping people like him around, who will be impossible to read, isn't going to help us in this game.
So, instead of voting for two people I find likely to be green, I'm going to switch my vote to GG, who I see as more a 50-50 chance of being red, and who is impossible to read otherwise.
##Unvote: ilovejonn ##Vote: GrassGiraffe
On June 18 2011 13:35 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I'd be interested in hearing from DeMorcerf too. He was actually brought up as a potential lynch candidate on Day 1, along with GG, and Lazorbear, but after making a couple posts, all scrutiny was removed, and people seemed to forget about him, more or less. This seems a bit odd for me, considering people were going to lynch him for lurking, that he was forgotten after two posts, while still continuing to lurk. Like I said, I'm interested in hearing more from you.
On June 16 2011 13:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote: For reference, people who haven't posted/contributed since Day 1 post:
Impervious Node hiro protagonist GGQ grassgiraffe (Likely Modkill, no posts) mig LandenC (1 post in game) Jacinto (1 post in game) Lazorbear (1 post in game) RebirthofLegend
This list actually makes me a little sad, because more than half of these people have played before, or are veterans, but we still have terrible activity.
Does that ring any bells? Has wiggles been pushing and pressuring lurkers as a means to try to bring the focus off of himself? (hint the answer is yes)
I could make this post a lot longer but most of what I said about wiggle's third party meta applies to his scum meta, in fact go back and read this post, replacing the words "third party" with "scum" and you'll get a pretty exact idea of what his meta is.
TL:DR
In summary wiggles is scum because he 1.) Avoided mentioning the obvious gape in my argument out of fear 2.) Proposes an anti-town plan to "discuss", demonstrating back tracking 3.) Tries to blend in and "discusses" something that allows scum to do the same. 4.) Proposes and plants the idea of crumbing, which is also mafia favored. 5.) Proceeds to milk my argument in an attempt to make sure he isn't lynched 6.) Goes after the "easy" target that are lurkers. 7.) Attacks Palmar, for doing something no sane scum would ever do.
Wiggles is anything but town. He might be the EH he might be mafia, he isn't a townie, that's for damn sure
So, to all those who concluded "lets ignore wiggles, he is obviously the EH", now would be a good time to move your vote over to him, because wiggles is anything *but* town at this point. My only doubt is that he might really be the EH rather than mafia, but either way, he certainly isn't town
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 26 2011 08:14 TheFerryman wrote: Especially if the mafia can quickly redirect focus. Knowing this I made my original accusations of wiggles without mentioning the possibility that he could be scum.
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too?
On August 26 2011 08:27 Jackal58 wrote: I'll buy that Ferryman. Makes more sense to me than the EH push.
On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too?
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope. Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill.
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope. Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill.
yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
On August 26 2011 08:27 Jackal58 wrote: I'll buy that Ferryman. Makes more sense to me than the EH push.
On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too?
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope. Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill.
yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
On August 26 2011 08:27 Jackal58 wrote: I'll buy that Ferryman. Makes more sense to me than the EH push.
On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too?
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope. Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill.
yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
On August 26 2011 08:35 Jackal58 wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:31 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:27 Jackal58 wrote: I'll buy that Ferryman. Makes more sense to me than the EH push.
On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too?
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.
On August 26 2011 02:10 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright I hate to bring this up yet again, but I believe I've taken all the cons out of it in it's current implementation, and as such I fear it's been dismissed too soon
The previous version was the rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit
psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 Bear in mind that if we can't prepare a strong argument for the person being the EH, we can still leave it at that and not lynch, and if we vote for the psych he can just not visit that night
Thoughts? Opinions?
on the caveat that you don't auto-lynch anyone if psych ends up suiciding, then it's workable to try and find out who is the EA. we could use the psych as an EA-cop. i'm in for this.
but you've been posting a lot about plans and not a lot about people, so what do you think about sevryn and palmar's unvote?
Since you asked: Sevryn is a person I consider to be in much the same boat as Eiii, with the whole lurking thing
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope. Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill.
yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
I've been looking through the arguments on breadcrumbing, having read the latest version I believe there are very few reasons that we should be saying the plan wouldn't work, but outright denying it? It doesn't seem very pro-town to be outright trying to shutdown any plan which might make town create an organized way of searching for the EH. Of note we should mention it was his idea that everybody breadcrumb and then we can check the psych when he dies, which would have been a resurrection of the original plan without actually removing much EH bias. At the moment he doesn't particularly stand out overall, he needs more time in the spotlight to form anything solid.
As for palmars cancelled vote? Both voting off someone you suspect to be a townie and using an extension day 1 are bad options, I don't really see it as much except him considering it the lesser of two evils, there is too much back and forth between him and tnkted. I think a real scum would have lynched Tnkted if he were innocent so we could bring it to night
And a freebie that wasn't in the question Ferryman seems to be clutching at straws now for lynching Wiggles, the whole EH thing doesn't work so he accuses him of mafia instead? As a townie in wiggles shoes, would you have suggested that your a mafia when the accusations are of you being the EH? I don't know about you guys but the 'trap' definitely would have got me
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope. Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill.
yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
On August 26 2011 08:35 Jackal58 wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:31 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:27 Jackal58 wrote: I'll buy that Ferryman. Makes more sense to me than the EH push.
On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too?
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.
##unvote ##vote Mr. Wiggles
Subtle disconnects.
a stunning argument
okay that actually makes sense
who would you like psych to visit?
same question @ eii
me that way I know he doesn't die first night and he knows I'm not the horror
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope. Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill.
yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
On August 26 2011 08:35 Jackal58 wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:31 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:27 Jackal58 wrote: I'll buy that Ferryman. Makes more sense to me than the EH push.
On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too?
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.
##unvote ##vote Mr. Wiggles
Subtle disconnects.
a stunning argument
okay that actually makes sense
who would you like psych to visit?
same question @ eii
me that way I know he doesn't die first night and he knows I'm not the horror
I understand your reasoning, but I don't think it's in towns best interests to check you. In my opinion: We should have the psych visit the people we suspect the most of being the EH checked as early as possible, to minimize the odds that the horror finds the psych first It's also a good method of alleviating EH pressure from wrongfully accused townies, should that situation exsist. As such, I think it currently makes the most sense for psych to visit MrWiggles, if we aren't going to lynch him. If we lynch Wiggles and he turns out not to be the horror, I would check Ferryman overnight instead. However, with that said, Sevryn is currently one of the people I'd like to have checked early in
Palmar has a tendency to go off on his own tangent and do things that a lot of townies wouldn't. His forcing us to use an extension was a big mistake, but for him it's not necessarily a scum tell. I still think tnkted is our best lynch. Check out all the attempts at deflection and defenses of him by other players. Never seen that on a town lynch D1.
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope. Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill.
yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
On August 26 2011 08:35 Jackal58 wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:31 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:27 Jackal58 wrote: I'll buy that Ferryman. Makes more sense to me than the EH push.
On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too?
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.
##unvote ##vote Mr. Wiggles
Subtle disconnects.
a stunning argument
okay that actually makes sense
who would you like psych to visit?
same question @ eii
If you're still talking about using the psych to try to find the EA and lynch someone, I think that's an awful idea. So really, psych'd just be trying to predict who the EA would hit. :/ Anyway, forum or navi.
Firstly, in your analysis of me, why is it odd that you don't mention the possibility of me being town? You maintain a strong conviction throughout your posts, that I am, in fact, the horror. This made sense to me, in the context of your analysis, because the horror and mafia are going to act fundamentally different. An analysis calling someone the horror, wouldn't be the same as an analysis calling someone mafia. So, if you call me the horror, it's because you think I'm the horror, which is different from mafia. -_- For example, the horror won't push the same anti-town things as a mafia would, and in the same way, a mafia probably won't try to avoid focus in the same way as the horror.
Not a hard concept to grasp, and saying that I might be town in your own analysis just seems like a way to weaken it when you're otherwise convinced in your read.
I called you/Palmar out on calling me the horror, because hunting for the horror is an easy action for mafia to take, as opposed to faking scum hunting.
As well, Palmar isn't sticking his neck out too much. In fact, no one even called him out on it, until I did. It rather looked like he was going to get away with it. It would have been much riskier if Tnkted was actually about to be lynched, but instead he just assured that the lynch couldn't happen in the first place.
You're tunneling. You couldn't get people to believe I was the horror, so now you're trying to get them to believe I'm mafia instead.
On August 26 2011 02:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Oh, come on. We've already used an extension with our votes split, and you throw a third person into the mix?
I'm fine with lynching either wiggles or tnk at this point. The two voting for CC (Erandorr and JeeJee) need to move their votes to one of those two, now.
On August 26 2011 14:15 Navillus wrote: Hmmm choosing who the psych checks actually does sound like a good idea, Wiggles, would you object to us agreeing for the psych to check you tonight?
I'd be fine with that. The only way it screws up is if EA visits him randomly, or if mafia shoot him. He should make up his own mind about who he wants to visit, though.
Also this is just in case I sleep through the lynch again ##Vote tnkted I'Il explain more later but for now basically it's between him and Wiggles and I really don't see a case against wiggles I feel like it's just a lot of tunneling by ferryman where he decided that scum/EH will do X wiggles happened to do X first and now ferry's going after him until he's dead, to be clear I don't think that the X that ferryman thinks is a scum/EH tell is one.
On August 26 2011 14:15 Navillus wrote: Hmmm choosing who the psych checks actually does sound like a good idea, Wiggles, would you object to us agreeing for the psych to check you tonight?
I'd be fine with that. The only way it screws up is if EA visits him randomly, or if mafia shoot him. He should make up his own mind about who he wants to visit, though.
Ahhh this did not help you in my eyes, are you or are you not ok with it not, "I'm fine with it but he shouldn't" so for one I think mafia kills show up differently, actually
[green]will a suicide be announced as a suicide, different from a murder[green]
If suicides are announced differently then the only screw-up would be EH guessing right night1
There is a 1/11 chance of EH guessing correctly night1 which means if we do agree to check you and the psych dies the only way it wouldn't mean that you're EH is that 1/11 chance, and honestly I would auto-vote you on 10-1 odds, my question is would you accept this including getting lynched if the psych commits suicide, or are you really that worried about that 1/11 chance?
On August 26 2011 14:15 Navillus wrote: Hmmm choosing who the psych checks actually does sound like a good idea, Wiggles, would you object to us agreeing for the psych to check you tonight?
I'd be fine with that. The only way it screws up is if EA visits him randomly, or if mafia shoot him. He should make up his own mind about who he wants to visit, though.
Ahhh this did not help you in my eyes, are you or are you not ok with it not, "I'm fine with it but he shouldn't" so for one I think mafia kills show up differently, actually
[green]will a suicide be announced as a suicide, different from a murder[green]
If suicides are announced differently then the only screw-up would be EH guessing right night1
There is a 1/11 chance of EH guessing correctly night1 which means if we do agree to check you and the psych dies the only way it wouldn't mean that you're EH is that 1/11 chance, and honestly I would auto-vote you on 10-1 odds, my question is would you accept this including getting lynched if the psych commits suicide, or are you really that worried about that 1/11 chance?
Sevryn, you´ve jumped between Cyber and Wiggles, what made you decide Wiggles was the one? What do you think he is, Scum or EA? Why that role?
Palmar, you´ve been fairly sure about Wiggles since the start, apart from the brief vote on Tnkted which you withdrew before the deadline. Why isn´t Tnkted a good target anymore? Do you still think Wiggles is EA or do you believe Ferrymans "TRAP" and it´s suggestion that Wiggles is Scum?
On August 26 2011 18:48 Forumite wrote: Sevryn, you´ve jumped between Cyber and Wiggles, what made you decide Wiggles was the one? What do you think he is, Scum or EA? Why that role?
Palmar, you´ve been fairly sure about Wiggles since the start, apart from the brief vote on Tnkted which you withdrew before the deadline. Why isn´t Tnkted a good target anymore? Do you still think Wiggles is EA or do you believe Ferrymans "TRAP" and it´s suggestion that Wiggles is Scum?
Even when I voted for tnkted I did not think he was a good target. Then I decided to change my policies around, and from now on I'm not supporting lynching targets I see no reason to believe are anti-town.
The vote on tnkted was simply based on my older policy that no-lynching was anti-town, even at the cost of killing a townie, but now I have changed my mind.
I don't really care all too much about Ferryman's case and his trap. I tend to form my own opinions. I don't read exactly the same things as Ferryman does in Wiggles's play, but the attention it has drawn to both of them has given me enough material to work with.
While I don't agree with his methods, I do agree with his conclusion. I said even before the trap was revealed that I had no clue how Ferryman pinned him as "EA" rather than just "anti-town", but the trap simply explains why Ferryman thought he could do that.
Because from where I stand I was leaning towards Wiggles being normal scum, rather than EA.
Me saying I don't agree with his methods doesn't mean they're bad btw, I use some very questionable methods (including tunneling, riling up emotion etc) but they are very effective even if people don't like them. It just means he has a completely different style of play than I do.
I think everyone needs to review the case against tnkted, realize they're incorrect and switch the vote onto Mr. Wiggles.
Wiggles first- We should lynch someone believed to me mafia overnight, while the psych should visit MrWiggles tonight and if he rocks up insane(+dead by logical extension), we know Ferrymans arguments have a solid base While lynching the Eldritch is a great move for town, a day 1 that's extended via Eldritch lynch isn't as useful as say extending day 3/4 At this point, it's a bad idea to introduce people that don't already have votes
Myself- I'm not going to vote myself
Which leaves Palmar and Tnkted- I'm not an expert on this, was it easier or harder than usual to get votes for tnkted? If it's been harder oneself could assume the mafias supporting him, but if it's been easier than it should then I feel i should move my vote because I've been thinking about this quote of Palmars
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
I'm suspecting Tnkted was onto something, and we've let it slide I'm not sure exactly how strong the back story is, but it seems the kind of joke that would be best if they were both mafia, and/or at the least Palmar was The question is why was he thinking of convincing people that he was town from the get-go, and combined with the whole disregarding the win condition seeming to separate the two unnecessarily if he were to be a town role Also of note is the choice of derp as an initial reply, it would seem the most logical choice if he were to be admitting to a mistake
Note that this differs from Navillus on two areas
On August 24 2011 00:20 Navillus wrote: Dammit I need to role something more interesting than townie one of these days... anyway, I've never played a mini before so I'm very open to any mini-specific advice anyone has.
1) No matter what Navillus role is, it's something that someone might think to say 2) When called out on it, he didn't react defensively, and chose to vote back on the person who voted him, indicating a lack of concern that he had aroused suspicion
That alone, sure it's fine, but combined with the changing vote /extension use thing There were a lot of people defending Palmar, certainly more than Tnkted It all leads me to this
On August 26 2011 19:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: On the candidate pool:
Wiggles first- We should lynch someone believed to me mafia overnight, while the psych should visit MrWiggles tonight and if he rocks up insane(+dead by logical extension), we know Ferrymans arguments have a solid base While lynching the Eldritch is a great move for town, a day 1 that's extended via Eldritch lynch isn't as useful as say extending day 3/4 At this point, it's a bad idea to introduce people that don't already have votes
You're clearly not reading the thread. None of the people pushing Wiggles think he's EA over any other kind of anti-town entity. I have no idea if he's the EA, and neither does Ferryman.
The reason people are defending me is because it's sensible to defend me. You're new to this game so I'm leaning that the reason you ignore facts, don't read the thread and approach the game from the point you're doing, is because you're unintentionally bad, instead of Mr. Wiggles's accusation of me which is almost certainly maliciously bad.
The fact that Wiggles has tried to swing a vote on me in a game where I am in my opinion radiating townie sunshine all over, is especially incriminating, because it's bad play, and wiggles isn't a bad player. By elimination the only remaining option is Wiggles being maliciously bad, which is almost certainly the case.
I still need to form an opinion on you, but I was leaning town. Now that you have proved to me you aren't reading the thread, I need another look.
You have c. 4 hours left to vote. Votes placed at the last moment (in the last few minutes leading up to the night) may not be counted. Remember you need a majority of 7 today to lynch.
As usual this is the up to date vote count until the timestamp in the OP reflects otherwise. I will answer questions presently.
Navillus: EBWOP: derp will a suicide be announced as a suicide, different from a murder
This mechanic is not revealed to the player. Unless the OP is vague or miswritten you will have to discover this information as it comes. I will however suggest that in this case the answer is probably self-evident.
On August 26 2011 19:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: On the candidate pool:
Wiggles first- We should lynch someone believed to me mafia overnight, while the psych should visit MrWiggles tonight and if he rocks up insane(+dead by logical extension), we know Ferrymans arguments have a solid base While lynching the Eldritch is a great move for town, a day 1 that's extended via Eldritch lynch isn't as useful as say extending day 3/4 At this point, it's a bad idea to introduce people that don't already have votes
You're clearly not reading the thread. None of the people pushing Wiggles think he's EA over any other kind of anti-town entity. I have no idea if he's the EA, and neither does Ferryman.
The reason people are defending me is because it's sensible to defend me. You're new to this game so I'm leaning that the reason you ignore facts, don't read the thread and approach the game from the point you're doing, is because you're unintentionally bad, instead of Mr. Wiggles's accusation of me which is almost certainly maliciously bad.
The fact that Wiggles has tried to swing a vote on me in a game where I am in my opinion radiating townie sunshine all over, is especially incriminating, because it's bad play, and wiggles isn't a bad player. By elimination the only remaining option is Wiggles being maliciously bad, which is almost certainly the case.
I still need to form an opinion on you, but I was leaning town. Now that you have proved to me you aren't reading the thread, I need another look.
I intentionally disregard the 'trap' for three reasons: 1) If it was a trap, wouldn't it be well thought out? Why wouldn't this 'trap' have been sprung BEFORE the extension? Surely if it were designed to be a trap from the get-go there was plenty of time in which the 'trap' could have been sprung with time to spare to secure votes 2) It seems more like a compromise. "Well guys you obviously don't all agree the horror so I'll just call him mafia and you guys vote on him now?" I'm not really sure of a better way to word this, it's just an impression I got 3) Only Palmar and Jackal have expressed any positive interest in the trap, for a grand total of three, and there are three mafia. This one I admit isn't a fair argument to use against it, but the first point basically convinces me on it's own
On August 26 2011 19:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: On the candidate pool:
Wiggles first- We should lynch someone believed to me mafia overnight, while the psych should visit MrWiggles tonight and if he rocks up insane(+dead by logical extension), we know Ferrymans arguments have a solid base While lynching the Eldritch is a great move for town, a day 1 that's extended via Eldritch lynch isn't as useful as say extending day 3/4 At this point, it's a bad idea to introduce people that don't already have votes
You're clearly not reading the thread. None of the people pushing Wiggles think he's EA over any other kind of anti-town entity. I have no idea if he's the EA, and neither does Ferryman.
The reason people are defending me is because it's sensible to defend me. You're new to this game so I'm leaning that the reason you ignore facts, don't read the thread and approach the game from the point you're doing, is because you're unintentionally bad, instead of Mr. Wiggles's accusation of me which is almost certainly maliciously bad.
The fact that Wiggles has tried to swing a vote on me in a game where I am in my opinion radiating townie sunshine all over, is especially incriminating, because it's bad play, and wiggles isn't a bad player. By elimination the only remaining option is Wiggles being maliciously bad, which is almost certainly the case.
I still need to form an opinion on you, but I was leaning town. Now that you have proved to me you aren't reading the thread, I need another look.
I intentionally disregard the 'trap' for three reasons: 1) If it was a trap, wouldn't it be well thought out? Why wouldn't this 'trap' have been sprung BEFORE the extension? Surely if it were designed to be a trap from the get-go there was plenty of time in which the 'trap' could have been sprung with time to spare to secure votes 2) It seems more like a compromise. "Well guys you obviously don't all agree the horror so I'll just call him mafia and you guys vote on him now?" I'm not really sure of a better way to word this, it's just an impression I got 3) Only Palmar and Jackal have expressed any positive interest in the trap, for a grand total of three, and there are three mafia. This one I admit isn't a fair argument to use against it, but the first point basically convinces me on it's own
To the first point, It's absolutely false that the extension is better saved, with less people in the game there is less to discuss. The first day of mafia is always the most important day. I have no idea why/how the trap is set the way it is, I have my own reasons for voting Wiggles, I think I have outlined them pretty well.
on point three, again you're guilty not reading the thread. I have no particular interest in the trap, I have never expressed any positive interest in the trap, you're simply saying things that aren't true because you're not reading. The only comment I've given about the trap is that it's weirdness explains something I already questioned.
To think that a mafia team would out themselves like that on day one is simply... naive. I hope you really put in the effort to backtrack and read what's truly going on here.
Okay, guys, if there are not a total of 7 votes on any one player in just under 2 hours, then there will be NO lynch. We have to lynch as a group, or we don´t lynch at all.
If we don´t lynch then we loose a Townie, someone goes insane, we risk loosing the psychologist too, and we have 48 more hours of indecisive arguments, with the added bonus of WIFOM. If we mislynch, then at least we have SOMETHING to go on, we can look at votes and arguments, try to find connection between Scum. If we don´t lynch, then we have nothing, and basically restart the game with 8 Town, instead of 9.
On August 26 2011 21:32 Forumite wrote: Okay, guys, if there are not a total of 7 votes on any one player in just under 2 hours, then there will be NO lynch. We have to lynch as a group, or we don´t lynch at all.
If we don´t lynch then we loose a Townie, someone goes insane, we risk loosing the psychologist too, and we have 48 more hours of indecisive arguments, with the added bonus of WIFOM. If we mislynch, then at least we have SOMETHING to go on, we can look at votes and arguments, try to find connection between Scum. If we don´t lynch, then we have nothing, and basically restart the game with 8 Town, instead of 9.
If we lynch and lose a townie then all you say is still true and its 7 twon instead of 8.
Okay I'm still not a huge fan of the Wiggles lynch but he became more suspicious to me with his less than impressive reply to my asking him whether he'd be okay being psych checked and I just filtered tnkted and he looks much less scummy to me than I originally thought. This is mainly because he has been basically tunneling Palmar this whole game, and while I don't think it's very good play I can't see a scum attacking someone so vigorously over that small "slip" and then staying in the spotlight by continuing to attack them for the whole day. Because of these two things Wiggles has pulled ahead of tnkted in my scum rankings and I think he's the better lynch.
In addition, you're opening a huge can of wifom by killing a townie for information. Should we consider the people voting for the townie to be guilty? Are they scum because they were wrong?
Or are the scum maybe people who tried to defend the townie?
Thing is, a dead townie is not a good option for us. A preferable option is to kill scum, but failing that I'd actually prefer no-lynch.
Fear of mislynching should not keep us from lynching. If we reason like that, then we might just as well sit quietly and wait a week until the scum have killed off everyone.
On August 26 2011 21:32 Forumite wrote: Okay, guys, if there are not a total of 7 votes on any one player in just under 2 hours, then there will be NO lynch. We have to lynch as a group, or we don´t lynch at all.
If we don´t lynch then we loose a Townie, someone goes insane, we risk loosing the psychologist too, and we have 48 more hours of indecisive arguments, with the added bonus of WIFOM. If we mislynch, then at least we have SOMETHING to go on, we can look at votes and arguments, try to find connection between Scum. If we don´t lynch, then we have nothing, and basically restart the game with 8 Town, instead of 9.
This. We already fucked up with Palmar moving his vote, and now we're having even more deflection away from tnkted. You know what that means? tnkt is scum and mafia want him to stay alive, and they want to make us waste our extended Day 1.
On August 26 2011 21:52 Forumite wrote: Fear of mislynching should not keep us from lynching. If we reason like that, then we might just as well sit quietly and wait a week until the scum have killed off everyone.
Well the field is open right now, Wiggles is leading the race with 5 votes on him. You should probably take your own advice and make those six!
Mr. Wiggles (5) TheFerryman Palmar Sevryn Erandorr Navillus
Cyber_Cheese (1) JeeJee
Palmar (3) tnkted Mr. Wiggles Cyber_Cheese
Not voted (0)
You have under 2 hours left to vote. Votes placed at the last moment (in the last few minutes leading up to the night) may not be counted. Remember you need a majority of 7 today to lynch.
As usual this is the up to date vote count until the timestamp in the OP reflects otherwise. I will answer questions presently.
So Forumite, what will it be, are you already okay with going back on your own thoughts and forcing a no lynch? Or is it better to do as you say "lynch for information".
On August 26 2011 22:01 Palmar wrote: So Forumite, what will it be, are you already okay with going back on your own thoughts and forcing a no lynch? Or is it better to do as you say "lynch for information".
There is still an hour and a half left, I´m still having my hopes that Tnkted will get lynched.
On August 26 2011 21:32 Forumite wrote: Okay, guys, if there are not a total of 7 votes on any one player in just under 2 hours, then there will be NO lynch. We have to lynch as a group, or we don´t lynch at all.
If we don´t lynch then we loose a Townie, someone goes insane, we risk loosing the psychologist too, and we have 48 more hours of indecisive arguments, with the added bonus of WIFOM. If we mislynch, then at least we have SOMETHING to go on, we can look at votes and arguments, try to find connection between Scum. If we don´t lynch, then we have nothing, and basically restart the game with 8 Town, instead of 9.
This. We already fucked up with Palmar moving his vote, and now we're having even more deflection away from tnkted. You know what that means? tnkt is scum and mafia want him to stay alive, and they want to make us waste our extended Day 1.
I cannot help but to question your thought process here. Are you trying to smear tnkted and I together to make us look like two thirds of a scum team? Do you think his push towards getting me lynched was not genuine?
You seem to share Forumite's opinion that lynching a townie is better than lynching no one, I read this from your initial "This". So, by the logic that you agree with, wouldn't the best option moving forward be switching your vote to Mr. Wiggles? Or does the logic only apply when the person about to be lynched is someone you want to get lynched?
It's very interesting that the same people who were at my throat for forcing a no-lynch and the use of our extension have yet to make a reasonable case for why wiggles is town (I at least explained my thought process behind why tnkted is town).
In fact those same people are doing exactly the same thing as they accused me of, and forcing a no lynch. What has changed? By their own definition only the target has changed, and since forumite has explicitly stated that lynching a townie day 1 is fine, and chaos 13 backed up his opinion, I'd expect them to be happy about lynching Wiggles today!
JeeJee and everyone voting for palmer neither of your targets are going to get lynched which means you are all essentially voting for a no-lynch, that is scummy, that is bad. But even ignore the fact that it reflects badly on you for a moment, some of you have to be town and if you are town please realize that it is better for the town to get a lynch through than not vote for someone who actually has a shot.
Forumite, you're the only person that I know isn't lurking right now, we need a vote on wiggles, if you're town please switch it actually is much better for town if we get a lynch in, even if you don't fully support it.
On August 26 2011 23:41 Navillus wrote: Forumite, you're the only person that I know isn't lurking right now, we need a vote on wiggles, if you're town please switch it actually is much better for town if we get a lynch in, even if you don't fully support it.
I allready switched, just after the last votecount
NIGHT ONE: A menacing, murderous, senseless fear was upon the townsfolk. Dr. Mariell and myself met with a boisterous crowd as we exited the now empty tavern. Central to the fracas was the rise of leaders. As the level-headed bureaucrats were torn from brief office so were the visceral and inept rocketed to the sphere of rule. A peddler of jeers and ridicule cast away the mayor's authority in but one laden rumor. Another cried wary of those set to flee. There was scant order to be found and the press of this rabble separated myself and my companion. Making little headway into the street itself, I clambered onto an upturned cart. As the assembly made ridicule of all logic and reason I scoured the crowd for the location of the sensitive doctor. The roar of debate seemed to peak and settle in a moment and in that silence there remained two contestants for control. A swarthy man of ill grooming and similar demeanor called for sacrifice and prayer. He indicated the nearest house of worship with a gesture contrived to seem righteous, yet it was wholly opportunistic to any god fearing man. A miserly woman, sour in face and mottled with whiskers stood her ground as contender. Although frail in stature, her eyes shone ghoulish. Portraying true confidence she raised her wizened voice above his.
Old Woman: "It was trespass that called down the mania in the older days. It was trepass that called this mania again. Hesmyrr was but the first. We must reject those intruders. We must step onto the mountain and make our way to Tiel of old. There we can take charge again and do right by our covenant!"
With an animalistic whoop the amassment made their choice. As one body the mob made their way, and foreign to that body as a stitch is to a wound, I was swept along without choice, hoping only to heal what I could and make hasty departure with opportunity.
No lynch has taken place! Voting list at the time of this post + Show Spoiler +
Mr. Wiggles (6) TheFerryman Palmar Sevryn Erandorr Navillus Forumite
tnkted (3) chaos13 Jackal58 Eiii
Palmar (3) tnkted Mr. Wiggles Cyber_Cheese
Cyber_Cheese (1) JeeJee
The deadline is August 27 2011 23:46 KST, which is 14:46 GMT (+00:00); submit night actions to Tackster and me before then.
On August 26 2011 23:41 Navillus wrote: Forumite, you're the only person that I know isn't lurking right now, we need a vote on wiggles, if you're town please switch it actually is much better for town if we get a lynch in, even if you don't fully support it.
I allready switched, just after the last votecount
Oh huh for some reason I thought that had been someone else, anyway this no-lynch just makes me more suspicious of Wiggles. For now though I propose we agree to have the psychiatrist check him, as I said earlier there's a 1/11 chance that the EH actually guesses correctly night1, that means it's very very unlikely to get a false positive and no way to get a false negative I personally think this is a reliable checking method for EH.
This majority voting changes things a lot. It´s rare for 30% of the voters to agree on a lynch in a normal game, and in this game, that´s a big weakness. Next day we are likely 12 players, and we still need 7 votes to lynch.
Anyway, I´ve witnessed the end of the day, but now I´m off.
Given the difficulty of lynching wiggles, I would rather believe he is mafia than EA, I'm going to vote the psychiatrist visits either jeejee or jackal.
Let's just do it like this, the night lasts 24 hours, so we have 12 hours to vote for whom the psychiatrist should visit.
On August 26 2011 21:32 Forumite wrote: Okay, guys, if there are not a total of 7 votes on any one player in just under 2 hours, then there will be NO lynch. We have to lynch as a group, or we don´t lynch at all.
If we don´t lynch then we loose a Townie, someone goes insane, we risk loosing the psychologist too, and we have 48 more hours of indecisive arguments, with the added bonus of WIFOM. If we mislynch, then at least we have SOMETHING to go on, we can look at votes and arguments, try to find connection between Scum. If we don´t lynch, then we have nothing, and basically restart the game with 8 Town, instead of 9.
This. We already fucked up with Palmar moving his vote, and now we're having even more deflection away from tnkted. You know what that means? tnkt is scum and mafia want him to stay alive, and they want to make us waste our extended Day 1.
##Visit Mr. Wiggles I do agree that it's very possible that he's scum but his response to me asking if he was OK being checked was just too wishy-washy and looked like an attempt to not get checked
Town talks at night? There's a strange detour from classic mafia rules that surprised me I'm going to apologise for not changing my vote, I fell asleep a few hours before the deadline.
##Visit MrWigges
He was under the heaviest suspicion of being EA, and his response to being checked started out well but finished with an attempt at undermining the value of having some clue where the psych goes
On August 26 2011 09:45 JeeJee wrote: yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
okay that actually makes sense
who would you like psych to visit?
same question @ eii
me that way I know he doesn't die first night and he knows I'm not the horror
indeed, this is an interesting point. making sure that the scenario where ea/psych visit one another is accounted for properly is all we've focused on, but the most likely thing to happen is that neither will visit another. someone's basically not-EA if that happens
checking palmar is the best idea i think. under the assumption that psych decides to follow the plan (i dont see why he wouldnt), i'd be hella more comfortable knowing palmar's not the EA. my other suggestion is wiggles.
On August 27 2011 00:26 Curu wrote: It's Eldritch Abomination not Eldritch Horror!!!!!
ugh, you read my mind. my god, where did the 'horror' come from. and like everyone's saying it too. damn shit annoys me :<
I think he should visit wiggles but the thing is the psych needs to follow who gets the majority or any information we get will be wrong and not only wrong but we have no way to know that its wrong or right even if he dies except for seeing peoples sanity on flip. ##visit Mr. Wiggles
just wanna point out its very unlikely wiggles is ea given the situation at lynch. id rather check jeejee or even myself, just to get it out of the way.
On August 27 2011 07:27 tnkted wrote: Hi, busy lately with bullshit, ill catch up soon. ##visit Mr. Wiggles, Sorry i couldn't be here to switch my vote
Thanks for not lynching me though, i appreciate it.
palmar that town read of yours... how strong is it?
I'm fine with being checked, but what indication do we have that the psychologist actually visits me? I don't want him to not listen, show up dead, and then I get lynched.
If we have everyone vote, he should just vote for who he's visiting.
On August 27 2011 09:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I'm fine with being checked, but what indication do we have that the psychologist actually visits me? I don't want him to not listen, show up dead, and then I get lynched.
If we have everyone vote, he should just vote for who he's visiting.
##Visit: Wiggles
If I turn out to be psychologist
##Visit: JeeJee
Hmm, making the chosen one chose alternate target for the case where the chosen one is psych... We should incorporate this alongside the voting, since it stops the psych from just sitting at home and wasting a night
I think the psychologist should do whatever they feel like. Too often the town majority ends up failing hard. Blue roles are distributed to individuals for this very reason.
On August 27 2011 12:27 chaos13 wrote: I think the psychologist should do whatever they feel like. Too often the town majority ends up failing hard. Blue roles are distributed to individuals for this very reason.
I'm not sure that's a correct assessment Some roles might be incapable of it, but a role that dies the night it finds it's target? Outside of that we only really need the psych to heal the doc if he goes insane, and there's no way the mafia would let the doc live once he's revealed. Sure the psych helps in the fight against the EA, but he does it more effectively if we know where he's been
On August 27 2011 12:27 chaos13 wrote: I think the psychologist should do whatever they feel like. Too often the town majority ends up failing hard. Blue roles are distributed to individuals for this very reason.
On August 27 2011 12:27 chaos13 wrote: I think the psychologist should do whatever they feel like. Too often the town majority ends up failing hard. Blue roles are distributed to individuals for this very reason.
I'm not sure that's a correct assessment Some roles might be incapable of it, but a role that dies the night it finds it's target? Outside of that we only really need the psych to heal the doc if he goes insane, and there's no way the mafia would let the doc live once he's revealed. Sure the psych helps in the fight against the EA, but he does it more effectively if we know where he's been
I forgot about the bolded. That makes my previous statement a lot less logical.
In that case ##Visit: Ferryman
Why? His first posts were talking all about the EA, which is reminiscent of a blue role discussing who their role should target/how it should be used. I wasn't convinced of his case on Mr. Wiggles. It was a whole bunch of meta that, while useful in some situations, didn't actually hold up in this case.
Wow what a fucked up day. Sorry I've been gone I was helping Coagulation move. I should have no further distractions over the weekend anyways. I'm going to try to digest wtf has gone on over the last 24 hours or so.
DAY TWO: We arrived with dusk to that remote village that haunts every dream. The empty frames of windows and doorways litter torn walls. The gravel grows fronds and bush and the forest is paved with empty paths. This hamlet must once have been busy, for the evidence remaining of an industrious people. Earthenware hid webs and withered roaches. Sack cloth lay strewn across stone floors where the night hounds had entertained their instincts. A length of rope draped it's length across the road, signaling a threshold of antiquated meaning.
The throng was quiet and it's leader strode on. I could heard muffled unrest to my left but was held captive to this forlorn burg that I knew had haunted me before my eyes had ever espied it. As the protests became fiercer I searched for their source. Two men appeared carrying the living corpse of a man, his stench was as fetid as dry bog of creation. The bag on his head served only to confuse his sanity. His sobs were clear and the nights intent was explicit. Thrown to the ground he shook and cringed at the rustles in the crowd. Bereft of any salvation his moans came from deep within and knocked around in the pit of my bowels.
Without signal or cue the woman stepped out. An unsheathed tool gleamed it's blade in the twilight. As motion slowed to a crawl and the earth fought it's spin I regarded what came with only observance and without judgement. The prisoner opened his throat to the world in a slew of gore. The blade returned to it's sheath. And in my mind the word 'mania' would not retreat. The witches use of it conveyed a very person, Dementia incarnate, into the foray.
"This man was a mole among us, who humiliated our ancestors by embracing the way of outsiders! His blood has been spilt to appease The One, and those intruders will soon suffer the same ignominious end!" The executioner cried.
Dr. Mariell fell out of the crowd like the prisoners very gullet. He wept and cried and called curses onto the assembled. And I inspected and perceived. All the while thinking, pondering 'mania, mania, mania...'
Palmar, Doctor(Sane), was butchered.
Disclaimer that flavour post obviously have no bearing on the game. The deadline ends at August 29 2011 23:46 KST, which is 14:46 GMT (+00:00)
Damn, not the best start. My FoS on Tnkted was mostly because Palmar was defending him very forcefully, more than i thought was normal. This doesn´t clear Tnkted entirely, but backing off for now, until something new comes up.
The Psychiatrist didn´t die, so we can assume Wiggles is not the EA.
First: Jackal, you know Coag IRL? Give him a noogie from me.
Second: I'm not quite sure what to think about palmar defending me into a nolynch. I mean, he's right; I am in fact town and he was right to defend me, but that doesn't make him town at all. He could easily be scum trying to disarm his sharpest critic by saving him from a lynch. He could also be a very noble town trying to save his sharpest critic from a lynch.
That being said, next time palmar just let me die; the information town gets is more valuable than a townie lynch and a nolynch are worth. I am NOT a blue role, so don't yall worry about that.
Third: Regarding the nolynch: This wasn't the best solution, but I think it might work out well for us in this case. Since we are allocated nolynches in this game, we might as well use them. Mafiakills are going to wittle down the town size a bit, which should narrow down our targets. Again, I'd like to remind everyone that pushing for a lynch is a bad reason to call someone scum if their target is green; the push to get me lynched was encouraged by mafia although to a lesser extent than you would think. If pressure equaled intention, I would be the first player (being as I'm the only one that knows for certain that I'm green) to call out who scum is given their behavior towards me. Sometimes townies are just wrong.
Fourth: I'm about to something that I do every game and gets me accused for being scummy every single game, which is induce wifom into the mafia's game by trying to predict the kills based on the most intelligent targets from my perspective (IE, the TNKTED SHOW).
If I were mafia, tonight I would...
Kill ferryman. He's the best town analysis alive that doesn't have some heavy accusations weighing over them.
I don't know how many kills mafia has, but if I had two kills, I would also kill Jackal. Not because he's been particularly helpful towards getting anyone lynched, but because he appears to have some sway with town in a way that is very dangerous to mafia.
Coag is my son Twinkles. He just made it to Ga. He's on his way to Fl. Naked Tuesdays are now back in vogue.
Palmar once again I am guilty of looking at you with a jaundiced eye. Sorry man.
Day ones poopfest centering on breadcrumbing made me curious as to who if anybody had.
On August 27 2011 03:33 JeeJee wrote:
indeed, this is an interesting point. making sure that the scenario where ea/psych visit one another is accounted for properly is all we've focused on, but the most likely thing to happen is that neither will visit another. someone's basically not-EA if that happens
checking palmar is the best idea i think. under the assumption that psych decides to follow the plan (i dont see why he wouldnt), i'd be hella more comfortable knowing palmar's not the EA. my other suggestion is wiggles.
ugh, you read my mind. my god, where did the 'horror' come from. and like everyone's saying it too. damn shit annoys me :<
##visit palmar
I could probably do this with every post in this game but each of those letters follow a period. I don't believe in accidents.
actually the C in Scum doesn't follow a period, but otherwise the message says
'im scum u mad'
Reading Jee Jee's posts reveals he's replied to/agreed with/been focused on sevryn faaaar more than anyone else, so perhaps sevryn is our lynch tomorrow.
Jackal, after the talk last day and the unfortunate demise of Palmar, there´s not much to go on, but where do you think scum hide, apart from JeeJee of course.
On August 28 2011 03:08 tnkted wrote: actually the C in Scum doesn't follow a period, but otherwise the message says
'im scum u mad'
Reading Jee Jee's posts reveals he's replied to/agreed with/been focused on sevryn faaaar more than anyone else, so perhaps sevryn is our lynch tomorrow.
Also town needs to start talking asap.
You're right. It is at the beginning of his next paragraph though. I still can't see it as an accident.
On August 28 2011 03:10 Forumite wrote: Jackal, after the talk last day and the unfortunate demise of Palmar, there´s not much to go on, but where do you think scum hide, apart from JeeJee of course.
Where they always hide. Right in front of us. I'm not convinced Tnkted is town.
indeed, this is an interesting point. making sure that the scenario where ea/psych visit one another is accounted for properly is all we've focused on, but the most likely thing to happen is that neither will visit another. someone's basically not-EA if that happens
checking palmar is the best idea i think. under the assumption that psych decides to follow the plan (i dont see why he wouldnt), i'd be hella more comfortable knowing palmar's not the EA. my other suggestion is wiggles.
ugh, you read my mind. my god, where did the 'horror' come from. and like everyone's saying it too. damn shit annoys me :<
##visit palmar
I could probably do this with every post in this game but each of those letters follow a period. I don't believe in accidents.
surely you're not serious. look hard enough and i'm sure you can find something like this in anyone's posts if they post enough. major fos on both tnkted and wiggles for just jumping on this without thinking it's simply a coincidence.
On August 28 2011 02:50 Jackal58 wrote: Coag is my son Twinkles. He just made it to Ga. He's on his way to Fl. Naked Tuesdays are now back in vogue.
Palmar once again I am guilty of looking at you with a jaundiced eye. Sorry man.
Day ones poopfest centering on breadcrumbing made me curious as to who if anybody had.
On August 27 2011 03:33 JeeJee wrote:
indeed, this is an interesting point. making sure that the scenario where ea/psych visit one another is accounted for properly is all we've focused on, but the most likely thing to happen is that neither will visit another. someone's basically not-EA if that happens
checking palmar is the best idea i think. under the assumption that psych decides to follow the plan (i dont see why he wouldnt), i'd be hella more comfortable knowing palmar's not the EA. my other suggestion is wiggles.
ugh, you read my mind. my god, where did the 'horror' come from. and like everyone's saying it too. damn shit annoys me :<
##visit palmar
I could probably do this with every post in this game but each of those letters follow a period. I don't believe in accidents.
surely you're not serious. look hard enough and i'm sure you can find something like this in anyone's posts if they post enough. major fos on both tnkted and wiggles for just jumping on this without thinking it's simply a coincidence.
Go find me one the says I'm scum after every period or parenthesis break and I'll entertain the idea that it was an accident for about 3 nanoseconds.
and for god's sake it doesn't even make sense "after every period... except this one letter, but let's pretend it's good too" really?
why am i even arguing this is ridiculous
back to business, on chaos13
his contributions have consisted of -tunnelling tnkted -not reading the thread
first, him and palmar got into a big argument, especially during the night as he just waltzed in after-deadline, voted for psych to visit ferry, but only AFTER trying to dissuade us from ... using this plan completely! Clearly, this particular variation of the plan has been checked and re-checked, and the worst case scenario has been fixed, such that it's actually a good plan. keeping in mind a townie perspective, he would have no reason to randomly say "oh btw this plan sucks lol"
y'all should also remember he was a suspect of palmar. overall, not to say town=right, but palmar's reasons were good-natured and I personally agree with his conclusion, especially after knowing that. u should too.
and just for you jackal, this post spells 'fuck you'. how ridiculous.
first, him and palmar got into a big argument, especially during the night as he just waltzed in after-deadline, voted for psych to visit ferry, but only AFTER trying to dissuade us from ... using this plan completely! Clearly, this particular variation of the plan has been checked and re-checked, and the worst case scenario has been fixed, such that it's actually a good plan. keeping in mind a townie perspective, he would have no reason to randomly say "oh btw this plan sucks lol"
y'all should also remember he was a suspect of palmar. overall, not to say town=right, but palmar's reasons were good-natured and I personally agree with his conclusion, especially after knowing that. u should too.
On August 28 2011 02:50 Jackal58 wrote: Coag is my son Twinkles. He just made it to Ga. He's on his way to Fl. Naked Tuesdays are now back in vogue.
Palmar once again I am guilty of looking at you with a jaundiced eye. Sorry man.
Day ones poopfest centering on breadcrumbing made me curious as to who if anybody had.
On August 27 2011 03:33 JeeJee wrote:
indeed, this is an interesting point. making sure that the scenario where ea/psych visit one another is accounted for properly is all we've focused on, but the most likely thing to happen is that neither will visit another. someone's basically not-EA if that happens
checking palmar is the best idea i think. under the assumption that psych decides to follow the plan (i dont see why he wouldnt), i'd be hella more comfortable knowing palmar's not the EA. my other suggestion is wiggles.
ugh, you read my mind. my god, where did the 'horror' come from. and like everyone's saying it too. damn shit annoys me :<
##visit palmar
I could probably do this with every post in this game but each of those letters follow a period. I don't believe in accidents.
surely you're not serious. look hard enough and i'm sure you can find something like this in anyone's posts if they post enough. major fos on both tnkted and wiggles for just jumping on this without thinking it's simply a coincidence.
Go find another post with this sort of coincidence (in any game) and I'll consider believing you, but right now you are insta-confirm scum. Especially with the weirdly phrased sentances and things in that post.
On August 28 2011 03:10 Forumite wrote: Jackal, after the talk last day and the unfortunate demise of Palmar, there´s not much to go on, but where do you think scum hide, apart from JeeJee of course.
After rereading all of Jee Jee's posts I'd say the scum are all hiding in the same spot he was. Searching for the EA and calling it the pro town thing to do. Yes the EA needs to be dealt with. But not at the expense of everything else.
We are lynching wiggles. This is nonegotiable. My case from yesterday stands and I am not restating it.
Amusingly enough JeeJee was next on my list to analyze, for his staunch refusal to comment on wiggles at all. I'll take a look at him next, but for today, wiggles must die. Remember that Palmar, who is now dead, fully supported this lynch.
Ferry, we have a 100% confirmed scum and a player who we think might be scum. Typically in that sort of situation you lynch the conf scum. So that's what we're gonna do. We'll look at wiggles again tomorrow.
and just for you jackal, this post spells 'fuck you'. how ridiculous.
first, him and palmar got into a big argument, especially during the night as he just waltzed in after-deadline, voted for psych to visit ferry, but only AFTER trying to dissuade us from ... using this plan completely! Clearly, this particular variation of the plan has been checked and re-checked, and the worst case scenario has been fixed, such that it's actually a good plan. keeping in mind a townie perspective, he would have no reason to randomly say "oh btw this plan sucks lol"
y'all should also remember he was a suspect of palmar. overall, not to say town=right, but palmar's reasons were good-natured and I personally agree with his conclusion, especially after knowing that. u should too.
Hmmm, troll message that scumclaims, and doubtfull defence. Looks too good to be true. By the logic that no Town would be so foolish as to post something that would get them lynched, I´d say JeeJee looks pretty scummy.
I'm not entirely convinced on JeeJee.for two reasons 1) he could be trolling as town, out of boredom or something 2) if he's been using it as code, who were the recipients? surely theres some more examples, maybe even people replying? point 1) is weakened by his reply after it was spotted
At this point, I think wiggles is clean: If I were the mafia, I'd choose someone intelligent, active, and that was trying to get an innocent lynched
On August 28 2011 06:34 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I'm not entirely convinced on JeeJee.for two reasons 1) he could be trolling as town, out of boredom or something 2) if he's been using it as code, who were the recipients? surely theres some more examples, maybe even people replying? point 1) is weakened by his reply after it was spotted
At this point, I think wiggles is clean: If I were the mafia, I'd choose someone intelligent, active, and that was trying to get an innocent lynched
Are you suggesting there is a traitor role in this game? If there is it's not in the OP. Do you know something we don't? Is that why you killed Palmar?
Jee Jee if it wasn't for the U Mad at the end I'd briefly consider coincidence.
On August 28 2011 06:59 tnkted wrote: how many kills does the mafia have? 2 or 1?
Mafia KP is 1 (check mafia role PM). I am announcing I will start to ignore any questions that can be answered by reading first three posts, unless I judge the information is stated in not too noticeable way.
k believe whatever you want, i stated everything there is to state (hell, i said i'd ignore it but you clowns keep bringing it up again). lynching me is a bad idea.
now, back to business what do you guys think about my chaos13 case?
On August 28 2011 06:34 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I'm not entirely convinced on JeeJee.for two reasons 1) he could be trolling as town, out of boredom or something 2) if he's been using it as code, who were the recipients? surely theres some more examples, maybe even people replying? point 1) is weakened by his reply after it was spotted
At this point, I think wiggles is clean: If I were the mafia, I'd choose someone intelligent, active, and that was trying to get an innocent lynched
Are you suggesting there is a traitor role in this game? If there is it's not in the OP. Do you know something we don't? Is that why you killed Palmar?
Jee Jee if it wasn't for the U Mad at the end I'd briefly consider coincidence.
No, I don't know anything special, I overlooked the fact that mafia could PM each other overrides the no PM's rule by mistake.
On August 28 2011 07:21 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I went back through and tried to look for other examples from JeeJee, they don't exsist. That umad just looks so forced though... ##Vote JeeJee
On August 28 2011 03:38 JeeJee wrote: and for god's sake it doesn't even make sense "after every period... except this one letter, but let's pretend it's good too" really?
why am i even arguing this is ridiculous
back to business, on chaos13
his contributions have consisted of -tunnelling tnkted -not reading the thread
first, him and palmar got into a big argument, especially during the night as he just waltzed in after-deadline, voted for psych to visit ferry, but only AFTER trying to dissuade us from ... using this plan completely! Clearly, this particular variation of the plan has been checked and re-checked, and the worst case scenario has been fixed, such that it's actually a good plan. keeping in mind a townie perspective, he would have no reason to randomly say "oh btw this plan sucks lol"
y'all should also remember he was a suspect of palmar. overall, not to say town=right, but palmar's reasons were good-natured and I personally agree with his conclusion, especially after knowing that. u should too.
##vote chaos13
Ignoring for a moment that it´s hard to take your argument seriously when you intentionally spelled out "Fuck You", I agree that Chaos13 isn´t helping much, I´m not so sure that makes him scum though. About directing Psych, Scum don´t want to derail the finding of the EA, Scum want to find the EA and get him lynched. It could be an EAtell, but it´s not a scumtell. The case Palmar directed at him, it couldn´t have been so strong because I don´t remember what it was about.
Is there any specific scumtells you want us to consider?
On August 28 2011 07:21 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I went back through and tried to look for other examples from JeeJee, they don't exsist. That umad just looks so forced though... ##Vote JeeJee
I suppose I should extend on that, while looking through, I was reminded that you were pushing to have me killed for a while I was willing to go with a somewhat stretched benefit of doubt before that
On August 28 2011 08:28 Eiii wrote: I don't like lynching jeejee for a supposed 'hey guys i'm scum lol' breadcrumb in one of his posts.
He says it´s a coincidence, not a joke, but as a coincidence is highly unlikely, he´s almost certainly lying. Town don´t lie, especially not about silly jokes. He doesn´t look like a Town who did a joke and was called out on it, that leaves a scum who trolled, got found out, and can´t explain it away. That´s how it looks to me.
##Vote JeeJee
Anyway, where is Ferryman? I miss his big analysis posts from the first day. I´d like to hear if he´s got any recent Scumtells from Wiggles.
Oh and sorry for triple post but also townies don't give up or concede, they fight and try to give us information that we can use if we do lynch them and thereby confirm them, so thanks for further confirming it, on the off chance that we are wrong, please give us every thought you have about this game so when we lynch you if you flip town we can use those thoughts.
i'll put my closing thoughts after day wraps up, before i'm officially dead. i already have it written up, hence the defeatist tone. there's nothing more for me to say, plus it's 10/12 already . wanna make this a 24hr day so this pain stops quicker? :X
JeeJee is seriously regretting that right now I bet.
On August 28 2011 06:34 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I'm not entirely convinced on JeeJee.for two reasons 1) he could be trolling as town, out of boredom or something 2) if he's been using it as code, who were the recipients? surely theres some more examples, maybe even people replying? point 1) is weakened by his reply after it was spotted
At this point, I think wiggles is clean: If I were the mafia, I'd choose someone intelligent, active, and that was trying to get an innocent lynched
1) I can't ever see town being stupid enough to intentionally put a mafia claim breadcrumb in their posts. 2) Code? Nah. He just got arrogant and thought he could get away with it.
Of course, this could be set up for Jackal to gain a bunch of town cred. I wouldn't put it past JJ and Jackal.
Especially Jackal. His scum play scares me after I watched him as mafia in a game I hosted.
On August 28 2011 06:34 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I'm not entirely convinced on JeeJee.for two reasons 1) he could be trolling as town, out of boredom or something 2) if he's been using it as code, who were the recipients? surely theres some more examples, maybe even people replying? point 1) is weakened by his reply after it was spotted
At this point, I think wiggles is clean: If I were the mafia, I'd choose someone intelligent, active, and that was trying to get an innocent lynched
1) I can't ever see town being stupid enough to intentionally put a mafia claim breadcrumb in their posts. 2) Code? Nah. He just got arrogant and thought he could get away with it.
Of course, this could be set up for Jackal to gain a bunch of town cred. I wouldn't put it past JJ and Jackal.
Especially Jackal. His scum play scares me after I watched him as mafia in a game I hosted.
On August 28 2011 10:17 JeeJee wrote: i'll put my closing thoughts after day wraps up, before i'm officially dead. i already have it written up, hence the defeatist tone. there's nothing more for me to say, plus it's 10/12 already . wanna make this a 24hr day so this pain stops quicker? :X
Good question... Are we able to turn the other half of the day into an extension and make up for the one we burned if 12/12 vote him?
can you believe i'm actually getting lynched for this nonsense? blah i'm going to sleep. if i wake up and everyone's still hell-bent on voting me for no reason, i am going to do something terrible
can you believe i'm actually getting lynched for this nonsense? blah i'm going to sleep. if i wake up and everyone's still hell-bent on voting me for no reason, i am going to do something terrible
I suggest you think twice before "doing something terrible", you might regret it in the future.
I will just point out you brought this down on yourself.
I'm posting this from my phone since power is out, depending on if I get power back or not I'll try to be around tomorrow.
JeeJee, I think you should post your findings now instead of later, it would give us more time to discuss them, and we might even change our minds on this lynch, although unlikely. It has to be posted before the lynch, so it will affect night actions anyway, but posting now give town 24 hours more to talk.
Well this is a really slow day, I'm sure we could be doing something productive instead of just being content with lynching JeeJee.
Lets get some discussion going: At this point in time, who do you think is town, and why?
I mentioned earlier that
On August 28 2011 06:34 Cyber_Cheese wrote: At this point, I think wiggles is clean: If I were the mafia, I'd choose someone intelligent, active, and that was trying to get an innocent lynched
Palmar was the perfect example of this, and that's a part of why I think wiggles is town.
Ferryman and Tnkted both pushed hard for a target to be lynched on day 1, Wiggles and Palmar respectively, harder than I believe a scum would on day 1, so I think they are town.
People I want to hear more of: Sevryn, Eiii, Chaos
I disagree with Cyber about both Ferryman and Tnkted.
Tnkted pushed on Palmar in response to one weird post by him, it didn´t really have any weight behind it. Eiii jumped on it to pressure, but then nothing happened until Wiggles picked up on how Palmar was trying to save Tnkted. It never felt like a serious case, so I don´t consider Tnkted to be Town because of it.
Ferryman is a new player, and impressed everyone with long posts of analysis, and reading a lot of other games to get a meta argument going against Wiggles, but it stopped, I haven´t seen much from Ferryman since the TRAP post, apart from him confirming that he still thinks Wiggles should be lynched. Maybe he just doesn´t have the energy to post long posts anymore, but he´s changed his style of play in a short time, and it looks odd.
I don´t think either is a better target for a lynch than JeeJee, just pointing out that it´s too early to consider either of them confirmed Townie.
On August 28 2011 10:06 Navillus wrote: Also the writing is weird and looks forced, but... Jackal how on earth did you notice that???
Because the writing was forced and weird.
Ehhh, more specifics what made you look closely, what did you notice first, how did you see it?
I spent almost 3 hours looking at every post in this game for breadcrumbs. I wasn't looking at anything of Jee Jee's in particular. I saw the U Mad first. And then found the rest. I found one other post that may contain a breadcrumb but I'm not positive it is. At any rate I am not going to share that post, or user, or what he may be claiming. Y'all can go find it yourselves.
On August 28 2011 10:17 JeeJee wrote: i'll put my closing thoughts after day wraps up, before i'm officially dead. i already have it written up, hence the defeatist tone. there's nothing more for me to say, plus it's 10/12 already . wanna make this a 24hr day so this pain stops quicker? :X
Good question... Are we able to turn the other half of the day into an extension and make up for the one we burned if 12/12 vote him?
On August 28 2011 20:17 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Well this is a really slow day, I'm sure we could be doing something productive instead of just being content with lynching JeeJee.
Lets get some discussion going: At this point in time, who do you think is town, and why?
On August 28 2011 06:34 Cyber_Cheese wrote: At this point, I think wiggles is clean: If I were the mafia, I'd choose someone intelligent, active, and that was trying to get an innocent lynched
Palmar was the perfect example of this, and that's a part of why I think wiggles is town.
Ferryman and Tnkted both pushed hard for a target to be lynched on day 1, Wiggles and Palmar respectively, harder than I believe a scum would on day 1, so I think they are town.
People I want to hear more of: Sevryn, Eiii, Chaos
You want us all to give you our town reads? What does that accomplish? It just gives scum better targets, because if 7 people think player A is town, and player A isn't on the mafia team, then who do you think they're gonna hit? Probably player A, and then we're short a trustworthy townie.
I'll work on looking at JeeJee's posts and seeing if I can find similarities/connections to other players right now. Post what I find in a bit.
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
If anyone needs more evidence that JeeJee is scum, here it is. He's discouraging mafia hunting and simultaneously puts on a show of mafia hunting. Since EA is a standalone third party role (doesn't know any other role/alignments, no other role alignments know EA) the only way that Cyber could be distancing himself from Ferryman is if they are mafia together. Just one sentence before he discourages people trying to find mafia, saying that apparently it's better to find the EA.
And now a summary of his interactions with players. Quotes are in spoilers so this post is actually readable.
On August 24 2011 03:21 Sevryn wrote: What if we just have everyone claim they checked someone everyday so that way the psych doesn't have to claim but when he dies we can go back and see who he has checked.
i dont like this. this is only helpful if psych visits EA first, and we don't know if that happens.
i.e. if psych claimed "im gonna visit A" and commits suicide because EA visited him, everyone would think that A is EA, wasting a lynch.
plus obviously doc has to lie about his target so it doesn't help to narrow down EA in the case of insane doc kills, and this helps EA since he never visits anyone who claims to visit him (possible 2x insane in one night), plus EA will know that the person who claimed to visit him isn't a psych, narrowing down his search twice as fast.
this is an awfully pro-EA plan -.^
Post #1- Attacking Cyber_Cheese for pushing a plan that has already been explained (by JeeJee) to be pro-EA. Pushes pretty hard against this guy but doesn't vote him.
Post #2- Quizzing Cyber_Cheese a bit, but not attacking him anymore. Just requesting more information. Points out Errandor's inactive playstyle.
Post #3- Pushes Cyber even harder, even to the point of voting for him. No new information came up between his earlier posts and this one. The only difference is that other players were starting to pick up steam on Cyber, voting for him and accusing him. This means it was safe for a mafia to hop on the bandwagon he started.
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror. It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
wtf@this post i already pointed out why the plan of everyone claiming a target is extremely pro-EA and pro-scum and doesnt help the town AT ALL. the fact that you're still suggesting it is mindboggling. it's a particularly dangerous plan because it actually sounds good before you think about it.
i wanted to go back and see if there's a case to be made against you, but tnkted already pointed out the bandwagon hopping. i wanna add this though which i think is more damning than hopping:
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
On August 25 2011 06:33 Cyber_Cheese wrote: this raises a question Can visiting roles choose to do nothing? If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home
this raises a better question why do you keep bringing up this idea of coordinating a psych decision?
*everyone votes for psych to visit A* *psych has committed suicide* "Ah, A must be EA!" *Lynch A* *A is not EA because EA visited psych and not vice versa*
Now what?
you're here quite often, you make a lot of posts. but all i'm seeing is that you want to kill someone, and you don't care who as long as it's not yourself. i'm seeing useless lists and pushing flawed plans. i'm seeing nonsense.
##vote:cyber cheese
He attacks Cyber more in his next post or two, until Cyber reworks his plan. Remember that JeeJee's only explanation for voting Cyber was based on the scumminess of the earlier plans. Note the lack of an unvote here, and that he still tunnels Cyber, asking for more of his thoughts.
On August 26 2011 02:10 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright I hate to bring this up yet again, but I believe I've taken all the cons out of it in it's current implementation, and as such I fear it's been dismissed too soon
The previous version was the rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit
psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 Bear in mind that if we can't prepare a strong argument for the person being the EH, we can still leave it at that and not lynch, and if we vote for the psych he can just not visit that night
Thoughts? Opinions?
on the caveat that you don't auto-lynch anyone if psych ends up suiciding, then it's workable to try and find out who is the EA. we could use the psych as an EA-cop. i'm in for this.
but you've been posting a lot about plans and not a lot about people, so what do you think about sevryn and palmar's unvote?
Next bit is not spoilered because these posts really need to be read.
This is where things get really interesting. Previous to this he has ignored almost everything else that's going on to focus on Cyber. He completely ignored the Wiggles/Ferryman situation, the chaos/tnkted sitiuation, and Palmar's craziness. Something about this set him off, however.
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 26 2011 08:27 Jackal58 wrote: I'll buy that Ferryman. Makes more sense to me than the EH push.
On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too?
Something about Jackal touching on the subject of sevryn/tnkted makes JeeJee feel the need to jump to their defense. sevryn's defense specifically. Note that he said "How is sevryn remotely related to tnkted?", not "How is tnkted related to sevryn?"
My questions at this point 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal?
Question 2 has a simple answer. Question 1 is a little more confusing.
JeeJee has had some interactions with sevryn, but nothing telling. The only thing notable about them is that he's very sparing in interacting with people. It was just Cyber until Jackal came in with this, and one post exchanged with sevryn at the very beginning of the game.
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope. Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill.
yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
On August 26 2011 10:20 Sevryn wrote: okay that actually makes sense
who would you like psych to visit?
same question @ eii
This next one is more interacting with sevryn, and is also the post he claimed mafia in. It's content has been ignored so far because we've all been focused on the crumb. Take a second look at it.
On August 26 2011 09:45 JeeJee wrote: yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
okay that actually makes sense
who would you like psych to visit?
same question @ eii
me that way I know he doesn't die first night and he knows I'm not the horror
indeed, this is an interesting point. making sure that the scenario where ea/psych visit one another is accounted for properly is all we've focused on, but the most likely thing to happen is that neither will visit another. someone's basically not-EA if that happens
checking palmar is the best idea i think. under the assumption that psych decides to follow the plan (i dont see why he wouldnt), i'd be hella more comfortable knowing palmar's not the EA. my other suggestion is wiggles.
On August 27 2011 00:26 Curu wrote: It's Eldritch Abomination not Eldritch Horror!!!!!
ugh, you read my mind. my god, where did the 'horror' come from. and like everyone's saying it too. damn shit annoys me :<
##visit palmar
What stands out to you? Who died last night?
Here he throws out some information and suspicions that he hasn't come close to mentioning before. Apparently Palmar is the EA, for reasons he fails to explain, and Wiggles his second option, again with a failure to explain. But if they killed him last night, why would he want the psych to check Palmar? The options I can see are 1) Mafia want to take out the EA so they aren't targeted, and gain town cred. JeeJee/scum team thinks Palmar is EA. 2) Mafia want town to derp and keep EA alive, JeeJee/scum team thinks Palmar is not EA.
Maybe someone with a more devious mind can work this one out. Maybe it's just wifom. I've pointed it out and can't quite figure it out.
It's after this that Jackal points out the crumb and JeeJee goes into "Oh shit that was stupid" mode.
I would like to go back to the two questions I had about sevryn, tnkted, and JeeJee. For reference those were
1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal?
The simple answer to question 2 is -
*drumroll*
sevryn is JeeJee's scumbuddy.
So back to 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted?
Well we have to remember, tnkt was getting a lot of suspicion yesterday, and a lot of votes. It seemed likely that he would be lynched. The only sort of lynch it would be bad to be connected to is a red one. A mafia will never want to be connected to another mafia lynch, except to push it as hard as they can.
My guess at mafia team right now. JeeJee sevryn tnkted
Of these three, my thoughts have changed since yesterday and I am least sure of tnkted. I also have to examine sevryn's posts more thoroughly, but there is a clear connection between him and JeeJee.
On August 28 2011 20:36 Forumite wrote: I disagree with Cyber about both Ferryman and Tnkted.
Tnkted pushed on Palmar in response to one weird post by him, it didn´t really have any weight behind it.
Sigh. Why does nobody read?
My FOS on palmar started as a joke from his initial comment in the thread, but his RESPONSE to the pressure I applied is what made me think he was scum. Go reread the thread, bro.
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
If anyone needs more evidence that JeeJee is scum, here it is. He's discouraging mafia hunting and simultaneously puts on a show of mafia hunting. Since EA is a standalone third party role (doesn't know any other role/alignments, no other role alignments know EA) the only way that Cyber could be distancing himself from Ferryman is if they are mafia together. Just one sentence before he discourages people trying to find mafia, saying that apparently it's better to find the EA.
And now a summary of his interactions with players. Quotes are in spoilers so this post is actually readable.
On August 24 2011 03:21 Sevryn wrote: What if we just have everyone claim they checked someone everyday so that way the psych doesn't have to claim but when he dies we can go back and see who he has checked.
i dont like this. this is only helpful if psych visits EA first, and we don't know if that happens.
i.e. if psych claimed "im gonna visit A" and commits suicide because EA visited him, everyone would think that A is EA, wasting a lynch.
plus obviously doc has to lie about his target so it doesn't help to narrow down EA in the case of insane doc kills, and this helps EA since he never visits anyone who claims to visit him (possible 2x insane in one night), plus EA will know that the person who claimed to visit him isn't a psych, narrowing down his search twice as fast.
this is an awfully pro-EA plan -.^
Post #1- Attacking Cyber_Cheese for pushing a plan that has already been explained (by JeeJee) to be pro-EA. Pushes pretty hard against this guy but doesn't vote him.
Post #2- Quizzing Cyber_Cheese a bit, but not attacking him anymore. Just requesting more information. Points out Errandor's inactive playstyle.
Post #3- Pushes Cyber even harder, even to the point of voting for him. No new information came up between his earlier posts and this one. The only difference is that other players were starting to pick up steam on Cyber, voting for him and accusing him. This means it was safe for a mafia to hop on the bandwagon he started.
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror. It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
wtf@this post i already pointed out why the plan of everyone claiming a target is extremely pro-EA and pro-scum and doesnt help the town AT ALL. the fact that you're still suggesting it is mindboggling. it's a particularly dangerous plan because it actually sounds good before you think about it.
i wanted to go back and see if there's a case to be made against you, but tnkted already pointed out the bandwagon hopping. i wanna add this though which i think is more damning than hopping:
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
On August 25 2011 06:33 Cyber_Cheese wrote: this raises a question Can visiting roles choose to do nothing? If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home
this raises a better question why do you keep bringing up this idea of coordinating a psych decision?
*everyone votes for psych to visit A* *psych has committed suicide* "Ah, A must be EA!" *Lynch A* *A is not EA because EA visited psych and not vice versa*
Now what?
you're here quite often, you make a lot of posts. but all i'm seeing is that you want to kill someone, and you don't care who as long as it's not yourself. i'm seeing useless lists and pushing flawed plans. i'm seeing nonsense.
##vote:cyber cheese
He attacks Cyber more in his next post or two, until Cyber reworks his plan. Remember that JeeJee's only explanation for voting Cyber was based on the scumminess of the earlier plans. Note the lack of an unvote here, and that he still tunnels Cyber, asking for more of his thoughts.
On August 26 2011 02:10 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright I hate to bring this up yet again, but I believe I've taken all the cons out of it in it's current implementation, and as such I fear it's been dismissed too soon
The previous version was the rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit
psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 Bear in mind that if we can't prepare a strong argument for the person being the EH, we can still leave it at that and not lynch, and if we vote for the psych he can just not visit that night
Thoughts? Opinions?
on the caveat that you don't auto-lynch anyone if psych ends up suiciding, then it's workable to try and find out who is the EA. we could use the psych as an EA-cop. i'm in for this.
but you've been posting a lot about plans and not a lot about people, so what do you think about sevryn and palmar's unvote?
Next bit is not spoilered because these posts really need to be read.
This is where things get really interesting. Previous to this he has ignored almost everything else that's going on to focus on Cyber. He completely ignored the Wiggles/Ferryman situation, the chaos/tnkted sitiuation, and Palmar's craziness. Something about this set him off, however.
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 26 2011 08:27 Jackal58 wrote: I'll buy that Ferryman. Makes more sense to me than the EH push.
On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too?
Something about Jackal touching on the subject of sevryn/tnkted makes JeeJee feel the need to jump to their defense. sevryn's defense specifically. Note that he said "How is sevryn remotely related to tnkted?", not "How is tnkted related to sevryn?"
My questions at this point 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal?
Question 2 has a simple answer. Question 1 is a little more confusing.
JeeJee has had some interactions with sevryn, but nothing telling. The only thing notable about them is that he's very sparing in interacting with people. It was just Cyber until Jackal came in with this, and one post exchanged with sevryn at the very beginning of the game.
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope. Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill.
yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
On August 26 2011 10:20 Sevryn wrote: okay that actually makes sense
who would you like psych to visit?
same question @ eii
This next one is more interacting with sevryn, and is also the post he claimed mafia in. It's content has been ignored so far because we've all been focused on the crumb. Take a second look at it.
On August 26 2011 09:45 JeeJee wrote: yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
okay that actually makes sense
who would you like psych to visit?
same question @ eii
me that way I know he doesn't die first night and he knows I'm not the horror
indeed, this is an interesting point. making sure that the scenario where ea/psych visit one another is accounted for properly is all we've focused on, but the most likely thing to happen is that neither will visit another. someone's basically not-EA if that happens
checking palmar is the best idea i think. under the assumption that psych decides to follow the plan (i dont see why he wouldnt), i'd be hella more comfortable knowing palmar's not the EA. my other suggestion is wiggles.
On August 27 2011 00:26 Curu wrote: It's Eldritch Abomination not Eldritch Horror!!!!!
ugh, you read my mind. my god, where did the 'horror' come from. and like everyone's saying it too. damn shit annoys me :<
##visit palmar
What stands out to you? Who died last night?
Here he throws out some information and suspicions that he hasn't come close to mentioning before. Apparently Palmar is the EA, for reasons he fails to explain, and Wiggles his second option, again with a failure to explain. But if they killed him last night, why would he want the psych to check Palmar? The options I can see are 1) Mafia want to take out the EA so they aren't targeted, and gain town cred. JeeJee/scum team thinks Palmar is EA. 2) Mafia want town to derp and keep EA alive, JeeJee/scum team thinks Palmar is not EA.
Maybe someone with a more devious mind can work this one out. Maybe it's just wifom. I've pointed it out and can't quite figure it out.
It's after this that Jackal points out the crumb and JeeJee goes into "Oh shit that was stupid" mode.
I would like to go back to the two questions I had about sevryn, tnkted, and JeeJee. For reference those were
1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal?
The simple answer to question 2 is -
*drumroll*
sevryn is JeeJee's scumbuddy.
So back to 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted?
Well we have to remember, tnkt was getting a lot of suspicion yesterday, and a lot of votes. It seemed likely that he would be lynched. The only sort of lynch it would be bad to be connected to is a red one. A mafia will never want to be connected to another mafia lynch, except to push it as hard as they can.
My guess at mafia team right now. JeeJee sevryn tnkted
Of these three, my thoughts have changed since yesterday and I am least sure of tnkted. I also have to examine sevryn's posts more thoroughly, but there is a clear connection between him and JeeJee.
On August 28 2011 20:36 Forumite wrote: I disagree with Cyber about both Ferryman and Tnkted.
Tnkted pushed on Palmar in response to one weird post by him, it didn´t really have any weight behind it.
Sigh. Why does nobody read?
My FOS on palmar started as a joke from his initial comment in the thread, but his RESPONSE to the pressure I applied is what made me think he was scum. Go reread the thread, bro.
So if it was only the response, why were you still using his "slip" as evidence? You clearly stated that one of the things that made you suspicious of him was his slip. The proof is in your posts and your refusal to address this point doesn't give me a good feeling about you.
On August 28 2011 20:36 Forumite wrote: I disagree with Cyber about both Ferryman and Tnkted.
Tnkted pushed on Palmar in response to one weird post by him, it didn´t really have any weight behind it.
Sigh. Why does nobody read?
My FOS on palmar started as a joke from his initial comment in the thread, but his RESPONSE to the pressure I applied is what made me think he was scum. Go reread the thread, bro.
So if it was only the response, why were you still using his "slip" as evidence? You clearly stated that one of the things that made you suspicious of him was his slip. The proof is in your posts and your refusal to address this point doesn't give me a good feeling about you.
Do you think if you keep asserting that I'm using the slip as evidence it becomes true?
This isn't the first time that you've said that, and I pointed out then too that it wasn't true. This was the last time I said that the slip was evidence, and it was virtually my first post of any substance in the thread. The VERY NEXT POST by me is where I explain the 'response' theory.
On August 28 2011 20:36 Forumite wrote: I disagree with Cyber about both Ferryman and Tnkted.
Tnkted pushed on Palmar in response to one weird post by him, it didn´t really have any weight behind it.
Sigh. Why does nobody read?
My FOS on palmar started as a joke from his initial comment in the thread, but his RESPONSE to the pressure I applied is what made me think he was scum. Go reread the thread, bro.
So if it was only the response, why were you still using his "slip" as evidence? You clearly stated that one of the things that made you suspicious of him was his slip. The proof is in your posts and your refusal to address this point doesn't give me a good feeling about you.
Do you think if you keep asserting that I'm using the slip as evidence it becomes true?
This isn't the first time that you've said that, and I pointed out then too that it wasn't true. This was the last time I said that the slip was evidence, and it was virtually my first post of any substance in the thread. The VERY NEXT POST by me is where I explain the 'response' theory.
I don't care when you said it, I care that you said it at all. If you didn't think it was a genuine slip, why did you ever use it as evidence? In your VERY NEXT POST you also don't state that the slip is not valid evidence. You simply omit it from that post.
Ok bro, clearly nothing I can say is going to remove your suspicion of me. If it would help I completely renounce the palmar slip theory in favor of the bad-response-to-pressure-theory.
For the record, it's not your accusations of scum that bother me, its when you assert that I'm still saying something when it isn't true at all. This is because it shows that you're not reading the thread and that you're not an reliable observer.
Also,
On August 28 2011 23:19 chaos13 wrote: In your VERY NEXT POST you also don't state that the slip is not valid evidence. You simply omit it from that post.
WTF does this mean? I didn't not say something?
BTW this is a stupid conversation and isn't finding us scum, we should change the topic
Maybe this is just a misunderstanding between us. For now I'm content with this
On August 28 2011 23:27 tnkted wrote: BTW this is a stupid conversation and isn't finding us scum, we should change the topic
And just for the record, you aren't too high up on my lynch list. As for some discussion, what do you think the chances are of Jackal being the EA and why?
That question applies to everyone. Go back through his posts and see if you can figure it out. I'm 90% sure he is the EA. If nobody has figured out why by the time I get home today I'll tell you how. He needs to be lynched tomorrow.
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
If anyone needs more evidence that JeeJee is scum, here it is. He's discouraging mafia hunting and simultaneously puts on a show of mafia hunting. Since EA is a standalone third party role (doesn't know any other role/alignments, no other role alignments know EA) the only way that Cyber could be distancing himself from Ferryman is if they are mafia together. Just one sentence before he discourages people trying to find mafia, saying that apparently it's better to find the EA.
And now a summary of his interactions with players. Quotes are in spoilers so this post is actually readable.
On August 24 2011 03:21 Sevryn wrote: What if we just have everyone claim they checked someone everyday so that way the psych doesn't have to claim but when he dies we can go back and see who he has checked.
i dont like this. this is only helpful if psych visits EA first, and we don't know if that happens.
i.e. if psych claimed "im gonna visit A" and commits suicide because EA visited him, everyone would think that A is EA, wasting a lynch.
plus obviously doc has to lie about his target so it doesn't help to narrow down EA in the case of insane doc kills, and this helps EA since he never visits anyone who claims to visit him (possible 2x insane in one night), plus EA will know that the person who claimed to visit him isn't a psych, narrowing down his search twice as fast.
this is an awfully pro-EA plan -.^
Post #1- Attacking Cyber_Cheese for pushing a plan that has already been explained (by JeeJee) to be pro-EA. Pushes pretty hard against this guy but doesn't vote him.
Post #2- Quizzing Cyber_Cheese a bit, but not attacking him anymore. Just requesting more information. Points out Errandor's inactive playstyle.
Post #3- Pushes Cyber even harder, even to the point of voting for him. No new information came up between his earlier posts and this one. The only difference is that other players were starting to pick up steam on Cyber, voting for him and accusing him. This means it was safe for a mafia to hop on the bandwagon he started.
On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror. It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
wtf@this post i already pointed out why the plan of everyone claiming a target is extremely pro-EA and pro-scum and doesnt help the town AT ALL. the fact that you're still suggesting it is mindboggling. it's a particularly dangerous plan because it actually sounds good before you think about it.
i wanted to go back and see if there's a case to be made against you, but tnkted already pointed out the bandwagon hopping. i wanna add this though which i think is more damning than hopping:
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
On August 25 2011 06:33 Cyber_Cheese wrote: this raises a question Can visiting roles choose to do nothing? If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home
this raises a better question why do you keep bringing up this idea of coordinating a psych decision?
*everyone votes for psych to visit A* *psych has committed suicide* "Ah, A must be EA!" *Lynch A* *A is not EA because EA visited psych and not vice versa*
Now what?
you're here quite often, you make a lot of posts. but all i'm seeing is that you want to kill someone, and you don't care who as long as it's not yourself. i'm seeing useless lists and pushing flawed plans. i'm seeing nonsense.
##vote:cyber cheese
He attacks Cyber more in his next post or two, until Cyber reworks his plan. Remember that JeeJee's only explanation for voting Cyber was based on the scumminess of the earlier plans. Note the lack of an unvote here, and that he still tunnels Cyber, asking for more of his thoughts.
On August 26 2011 02:10 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Alright I hate to bring this up yet again, but I believe I've taken all the cons out of it in it's current implementation, and as such I fear it's been dismissed too soon
The previous version was the rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit
So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit
psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 Bear in mind that if we can't prepare a strong argument for the person being the EH, we can still leave it at that and not lynch, and if we vote for the psych he can just not visit that night
Thoughts? Opinions?
on the caveat that you don't auto-lynch anyone if psych ends up suiciding, then it's workable to try and find out who is the EA. we could use the psych as an EA-cop. i'm in for this.
but you've been posting a lot about plans and not a lot about people, so what do you think about sevryn and palmar's unvote?
Next bit is not spoilered because these posts really need to be read.
This is where things get really interesting. Previous to this he has ignored almost everything else that's going on to focus on Cyber. He completely ignored the Wiggles/Ferryman situation, the chaos/tnkted sitiuation, and Palmar's craziness. Something about this set him off, however.
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 26 2011 08:27 Jackal58 wrote: I'll buy that Ferryman. Makes more sense to me than the EH push.
On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too?
Something about Jackal touching on the subject of sevryn/tnkted makes JeeJee feel the need to jump to their defense. sevryn's defense specifically. Note that he said "How is sevryn remotely related to tnkted?", not "How is tnkted related to sevryn?"
My questions at this point 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal?
Question 2 has a simple answer. Question 1 is a little more confusing.
JeeJee has had some interactions with sevryn, but nothing telling. The only thing notable about them is that he's very sparing in interacting with people. It was just Cyber until Jackal came in with this, and one post exchanged with sevryn at the very beginning of the game.
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope. Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill.
yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
On August 26 2011 10:20 Sevryn wrote: okay that actually makes sense
who would you like psych to visit?
same question @ eii
This next one is more interacting with sevryn, and is also the post he claimed mafia in. It's content has been ignored so far because we've all been focused on the crumb. Take a second look at it.
On August 26 2011 09:45 JeeJee wrote: yeah no, this doesn't apply to this variation at all. ea cannot assume that the person we tell the psych to visit isn't the psych. this variation is workable, provided we don't auto-lynch anyone just because psych suicides.
okay that actually makes sense
who would you like psych to visit?
same question @ eii
me that way I know he doesn't die first night and he knows I'm not the horror
indeed, this is an interesting point. making sure that the scenario where ea/psych visit one another is accounted for properly is all we've focused on, but the most likely thing to happen is that neither will visit another. someone's basically not-EA if that happens
checking palmar is the best idea i think. under the assumption that psych decides to follow the plan (i dont see why he wouldnt), i'd be hella more comfortable knowing palmar's not the EA. my other suggestion is wiggles.
On August 27 2011 00:26 Curu wrote: It's Eldritch Abomination not Eldritch Horror!!!!!
ugh, you read my mind. my god, where did the 'horror' come from. and like everyone's saying it too. damn shit annoys me :<
##visit palmar
What stands out to you? Who died last night?
Here he throws out some information and suspicions that he hasn't come close to mentioning before. Apparently Palmar is the EA, for reasons he fails to explain, and Wiggles his second option, again with a failure to explain. But if they killed him last night, why would he want the psych to check Palmar? The options I can see are 1) Mafia want to take out the EA so they aren't targeted, and gain town cred. JeeJee/scum team thinks Palmar is EA. 2) Mafia want town to derp and keep EA alive, JeeJee/scum team thinks Palmar is not EA.
Maybe someone with a more devious mind can work this one out. Maybe it's just wifom. I've pointed it out and can't quite figure it out.
It's after this that Jackal points out the crumb and JeeJee goes into "Oh shit that was stupid" mode.
I would like to go back to the two questions I had about sevryn, tnkted, and JeeJee. For reference those were
1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal?
The simple answer to question 2 is -
*drumroll*
sevryn is JeeJee's scumbuddy.
So back to 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted?
Well we have to remember, tnkt was getting a lot of suspicion yesterday, and a lot of votes. It seemed likely that he would be lynched. The only sort of lynch it would be bad to be connected to is a red one. A mafia will never want to be connected to another mafia lynch, except to push it as hard as they can.
My guess at mafia team right now. JeeJee sevryn tnkted
Of these three, my thoughts have changed since yesterday and I am least sure of tnkted. I also have to examine sevryn's posts more thoroughly, but there is a clear connection between him and JeeJee.
i Just woke up and have not read the last page of the thread if you look over the thread you will notice that everything that "links" me to jeejee and tnkted. are all posts made by someone else. moreover the subtle disconnects attack on me was an incredibly weak attack. the fact that I didn't defend myself or try to distance myself from tnkted all shows something IMO. of course tnkted did almost get lynched first day which is why you think he is scum besides the fact that palmar died night one. which is weird when you consider he was pretty sure that tnkted was townie. when we lynched jeejee if he flips red if there is no better case we could lynch tnkted but your case against me seems to be long and well thought out but it relies on both tnkted and jeejee being scum.
On August 29 2011 00:10 chaos13 wrote: That question applies to everyone. Go back through his posts and see if you can figure it out. I'm 90% sure he is the EA. If nobody has figured out why by the time I get home today I'll tell you how. He needs to be lynched tomorrow.
This is a refreshing change of pace. You're almost always 100% sure I'm scum.
On August 28 2011 23:27 tnkted wrote: BTW this is a stupid conversation and isn't finding us scum, we should change the topic
And just for the record, you aren't too high up on my lynch list. As for some discussion, what do you think the chances are of Jackal being the EA and why?
The F? Didn't you just make a giant post saying that tnkted is one of the scum? and then you say he isnt high up on your lynch list? what an excellent contradiction you have made there sir
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
If anyone needs more evidence that JeeJee is scum, here it is. He's discouraging mafia hunting and simultaneously puts on a show of mafia hunting. Since EA is a standalone third party role (doesn't know any other role/alignments, no other role alignments know EA) the only way that Cyber could be distancing himself from Ferryman is if they are mafia together. Just one sentence before he discourages people trying to find mafia, saying that apparently it's better to find the EA.
It is better to find EA; surely you're not serious. Not only does it eliminate a town threat, but town gets a double lynch and a free day. That doesn't mean finding mafia should be ignored, but it is better to find the EA.
This isn't even speaking from shinbi-the-player-in-cosmicHorror point of view. But speaking from a shinbi-the-person-with-a-brain point of view.
Finding EA on day 1 is sub-optimal. It's a lot better to try to find him from now on, but only if we are very certain of his flip, and have a good target for a mafia lynch as well. I'm pretty sure I said something about this on Day 1, that finding the EA on the first day is the least optimal day to lynch him on, as we have the least information available, and thus can make the least use of the extra lynch.
Why so scummy, JeeJee? Hiding behind "eliminating a town threat" rhetoric, when it was the worst time to kill the horror and the day we would be most likely to mislynch anyways.
You are Mafia. Many have been crushed under your violence, but when you move into quiet rural town intending to subjugate it as usual, you might unknowingly have disturbed slumber of the force beyond your understanding...
You can privately talk with each other throughout the game, and choose to kill one player every night.
If you turn insane, you will be notified of the fact immediately; you will receive # of the insane people (including you) in the town at beginning of the every day.
You win when your number outnumber or is equal to the surviving town-aligned players.
On August 29 2011 02:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Finding EA on day 1 is sub-optimal. It's a lot better to try to find him from now on, but only if we are very certain of his flip, and have a good target for a mafia lynch as well. I'm pretty sure I said something about this on Day 1, that finding the EA on the first day is the least optimal day to lynch him on, as we have the least information available, and thus can make the least use of the extra lynch.
Why so scummy, JeeJee? Hiding behind "eliminating a town threat" rhetoric, when it was the worst time to kill the horror and the day we would be most likely to mislynch anyways.
Also, to keep track:
#Of insane people 0-1/12
why is everyone stupid in this game
if you lynch EA d1, you're EXACTLY WHERE YOU WERE EXCEPT THIS TIME THERE'S NO DAMN EA ANYMORE. This is a benefit in every possible way imaginable. given a choice between a confirmed scum and a confirmed EA, you take EA, every time. know why? BECAUSE YOU CAN TAKE THE SCUM RIGHT AFTER.
there is never a bad day to kill EA, period. you're incredibly thick if you think otherwise. the optimal day to kill EA is as soon as possible. you're getting confused because you think of EA as a pure double lynch. it's not. it's a double lynch where one of the targets is EA. you're gonna lynch someone anyway. if you can lynch EA to go along with him, why not?
You are Mafia. Many have been crushed under your violence, but when you move into quiet rural town intending to subjugate it as usual, you might unknowingly have disturbed slumber of the force beyond your understanding...
You can privately talk with each other throughout the game, and choose to kill one player every night.
If you turn insane, you will be notified of the fact immediately; you will receive # of the insane people (including you) in the town at beginning of the every day.
You win when your number outnumber or is equal to the surviving town-aligned players.
How many crazy people we got??????
another stupid question. if a mafia were insane now, the answer they will give you is obviously 2, since it's day 2.
On August 28 2011 23:36 chaos13 wrote: Maybe this is just a misunderstanding between us. For now I'm content with this
On August 28 2011 23:27 tnkted wrote: BTW this is a stupid conversation and isn't finding us scum, we should change the topic
And just for the record, you aren't too high up on my lynch list. As for some discussion, what do you think the chances are of Jackal being the EA and why?
The F? Didn't you just make a giant post saying that tnkted is one of the scum? and then you say he isnt high up on your lynch list? what an excellent contradiction you have made there sir
JeeJee hasn´t changed my mind with his recent posts. JeeJee, if you have a big reveal, then you might want to post it. Waiting until the night doesn´t help Town.
Also, I´m fairly sure Sevryn is Toww, but I don´t know what that is...
On August 29 2011 05:09 Forumite wrote: JeeJee hasn´t changed my mind with his recent posts. JeeJee, if you have a big reveal, then you might want to post it. Waiting until the night doesn´t help Town.
Also, I´m fairly sure Sevryn is Toww, but I don´t know what that is...
I don't have a big reveal, who gave you that idea? I do have a bunch of final thoughts that'll probably change how you approach this game though. That combined with my flip should be enough to make all of you reconsider your stances at least a bit.
On August 29 2011 05:09 Forumite wrote: JeeJee hasn´t changed my mind with his recent posts. JeeJee, if you have a big reveal, then you might want to post it. Waiting until the night doesn´t help Town.
Also, I´m fairly sure Sevryn is Toww, but I don´t know what that is...
I don't have a big reveal, who gave you that idea? I do have a bunch of final thoughts that'll probably change how you approach this game though. That combined with my flip should be enough to make all of you reconsider your stances at least a bit.
On August 29 2011 05:09 Forumite wrote: JeeJee hasn´t changed my mind with his recent posts. JeeJee, if you have a big reveal, then you might want to post it. Waiting until the night doesn´t help Town.
Also, I´m fairly sure Sevryn is Toww, but I don´t know what that is...
I don't have a big reveal, who gave you that idea? I do have a bunch of final thoughts that'll probably change how you approach this game though. That combined with my flip should be enough to make all of you reconsider your stances at least a bit.
Why not post it now?
Because then they wouldn't be 'final' thoughts, silly.
On August 23 2011 00:37 Curu wrote: lol I think JeeJee just dies in N1 of every game so people can see more of his /in gifs.
jeejee, thoughts?
Replace died with "gets killed". It's not as if I died on purpose in WW or XLIV. But yeah, I agree. And I didn't get killed night1 this game, oh shit must be scum /rolleyes
On August 29 2011 05:09 Forumite wrote: JeeJee hasn´t changed my mind with his recent posts. JeeJee, if you have a big reveal, then you might want to post it. Waiting until the night doesn´t help Town.
Also, I´m fairly sure Sevryn is Toww, but I don´t know what that is...
I don't have a big reveal, who gave you that idea? I do have a bunch of final thoughts that'll probably change how you approach this game though. That combined with my flip should be enough to make all of you reconsider your stances at least a bit.
Why not post it now?
Because then they wouldn't be 'final' thoughts, silly.
Well, yeah, but it´s still better for Town if you post early so we have more time to discuss those final thoughts.
On August 28 2011 10:17 JeeJee wrote: i'll put my closing thoughts after day wraps up, before i'm officially dead. i already have it written up, hence the defeatist tone. there's nothing more for me to say, plus it's 10/12 already . wanna make this a 24hr day so this pain stops quicker? :X
Good question... Are we able to turn the other half of the day into an extension and make up for the one we burned if 12/12 vote him?
Only scum want a short day. Y U scum Cyber?
Negative, I figured we could get an extension refund
On August 28 2011 20:17 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Well this is a really slow day, I'm sure we could be doing something productive instead of just being content with lynching JeeJee.
Lets get some discussion going: At this point in time, who do you think is town, and why?
I mentioned earlier that
On August 28 2011 06:34 Cyber_Cheese wrote: At this point, I think wiggles is clean: If I were the mafia, I'd choose someone intelligent, active, and that was trying to get an innocent lynched
Palmar was the perfect example of this, and that's a part of why I think wiggles is town.
Ferryman and Tnkted both pushed hard for a target to be lynched on day 1, Wiggles and Palmar respectively, harder than I believe a scum would on day 1, so I think they are town.
People I want to hear more of: Sevryn, Eiii, Chaos
You want us all to give you our town reads? What does that accomplish? It just gives scum better targets, because if 7 people think player A is town, and player A isn't on the mafia team, then who do you think they're gonna hit? Probably player A, and then we're short a trustworthy townie.
I'll work on looking at JeeJee's posts and seeing if I can find similarities/connections to other players right now. Post what I find in a bit.
It was an attempt to create discussion, albeit apparently a bad one
On August 29 2011 02:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Finding EA on day 1 is sub-optimal. It's a lot better to try to find him from now on, but only if we are very certain of his flip, and have a good target for a mafia lynch as well. I'm pretty sure I said something about this on Day 1, that finding the EA on the first day is the least optimal day to lynch him on, as we have the least information available, and thus can make the least use of the extra lynch.
Why so scummy, JeeJee? Hiding behind "eliminating a town threat" rhetoric, when it was the worst time to kill the horror and the day we would be most likely to mislynch anyways.
On August 29 2011 07:52 JeeJee wrote: You know what you guys remind me of? Hyenas eager for blood. This gives me an idea..
You haven´t given us much, if any, reason to doubt this lynch. You are acting like the textbook example of a Scum that got found out. Of course we are eager to get it over with.
On August 29 2011 07:52 JeeJee wrote: You know what you guys remind me of? Hyenas eager for blood. This gives me an idea..
You haven´t given us much, if any, reason to doubt this lynch. You are acting like the textbook example of a Scum that got found out. Of course we are eager to get it over with.
On August 29 2011 07:52 JeeJee wrote: You know what you guys remind me of? Hyenas eager for blood. This gives me an idea..
You haven´t given us much, if any, reason to doubt this lynch. You are acting like the textbook example of a Scum that got found out. Of course we are eager to get it over with.
but i'm a psychologist
You don´t think it would have been a good idea to tell us earlier!? Seriously! You are just hurting Town when you act like this. We are not going to lynch a blue who is most likely getting killed directly after claiming anyway, but you don´t give us much time to find another target.
On August 29 2011 07:52 JeeJee wrote: You know what you guys remind me of? Hyenas eager for blood. This gives me an idea..
You haven´t given us much, if any, reason to doubt this lynch. You are acting like the textbook example of a Scum that got found out. Of course we are eager to get it over with.
but i'm a psychologist
You don´t think it would have been a good idea to tell us earlier!? Seriously! You are just hurting Town when you act like this. We are not going to lynch a blue who is most likely getting killed directly after claiming anyway, but you don´t give us much time to find another target.
Okay, who did you check during the first night?
##Unvote
I checked chaos13. Why do you think I'm so bent on him being an EA? I am insane now. I commit suicide at dusk, so your lynch is going to be wasted. That's why I was laughing so hard at you guys
On August 29 2011 07:52 JeeJee wrote: You know what you guys remind me of? Hyenas eager for blood. This gives me an idea..
You haven´t given us much, if any, reason to doubt this lynch. You are acting like the textbook example of a Scum that got found out. Of course we are eager to get it over with.
but i'm a psychologist
You don´t think it would have been a good idea to tell us earlier!? Seriously! You are just hurting Town when you act like this. We are not going to lynch a blue who is most likely getting killed directly after claiming anyway, but you don´t give us much time to find another target.
Okay, who did you check during the first night?
##Unvote
I checked chaos13. Why do you think I'm so bent on him being an EA? I am insane now. I commit suicide at dusk, so your lynch is going to be wasted. That's why I was laughing so hard at you guys
I thought the Psychologist die immediately. Okay, if you are the psychologist and found Chaos13, why didn´t you just claim immediately after the Daypost, we could have lynched Chaos13 today, or else save the lynch on Chaos13 and look for scum today, secure that we could deal with the EA when we needed to.
Even if this is all true, your play is hurting Town.
On August 29 2011 07:52 JeeJee wrote: You know what you guys remind me of? Hyenas eager for blood. This gives me an idea..
You haven´t given us much, if any, reason to doubt this lynch. You are acting like the textbook example of a Scum that got found out. Of course we are eager to get it over with.
but i'm a psychologist
You don´t think it would have been a good idea to tell us earlier!? Seriously! You are just hurting Town when you act like this. We are not going to lynch a blue who is most likely getting killed directly after claiming anyway, but you don´t give us much time to find another target.
Okay, who did you check during the first night?
##Unvote
I checked chaos13. Why do you think I'm so bent on him being an EA? I am insane now. I commit suicide at dusk, so your lynch is going to be wasted. That's why I was laughing so hard at you guys
I thought the Psychologist die immediately. Okay, if you are the psychologist and found Chaos13, why didn´t you just claim immediately after the Daypost, we could have lynched Chaos13 today, or else save the lynch on Chaos13 and look for scum today, secure that we could deal with the EA when we needed to.
Even if this is all true, your play is hurting Town.
No, psych dies in 48 hours. It's not like when you go insane your head explodes. You follow the standard five stages, roleplay optional. I chose to roleplay. Hell just look over my posts today:
On August 28 2011 02:50 Jackal58 wrote: Coag is my son Twinkles. He just made it to Ga. He's on his way to Fl. Naked Tuesdays are now back in vogue.
Palmar once again I am guilty of looking at you with a jaundiced eye. Sorry man.
Day ones poopfest centering on breadcrumbing made me curious as to who if anybody had.
On August 27 2011 03:33 JeeJee wrote:
indeed, this is an interesting point. making sure that the scenario where ea/psych visit one another is accounted for properly is all we've focused on, but the most likely thing to happen is that neither will visit another. someone's basically not-EA if that happens
checking palmar is the best idea i think. under the assumption that psych decides to follow the plan (i dont see why he wouldnt), i'd be hella more comfortable knowing palmar's not the EA. my other suggestion is wiggles.
ugh, you read my mind. my god, where did the 'horror' come from. and like everyone's saying it too. damn shit annoys me :<
##visit palmar
I could probably do this with every post in this game but each of those letters follow a period. I don't believe in accidents.
surely you're not serious. look hard enough and i'm sure you can find something like this in anyone's posts if they post enough. major fos on both tnkted and wiggles for just jumping on this without thinking it's simply a coincidence.
On August 28 2011 03:38 JeeJee wrote: and for god's sake it doesn't even make sense "after every period... except this one letter, but let's pretend it's good too" really?
why am i even arguing this is ridiculous
back to business, on chaos13
his contributions have consisted of -tunnelling tnkted -not reading the thread
first, him and palmar got into a big argument, especially during the night as he just waltzed in after-deadline, voted for psych to visit ferry, but only AFTER trying to dissuade us from ... using this plan completely! Clearly, this particular variation of the plan has been checked and re-checked, and the worst case scenario has been fixed, such that it's actually a good plan. keeping in mind a townie perspective, he would have no reason to randomly say "oh btw this plan sucks lol"
y'all should also remember he was a suspect of palmar. overall, not to say town=right, but palmar's reasons were good-natured and I personally agree with his conclusion, especially after knowing that. u should too.
and just for you jackal, this post spells 'fuck you'. how ridiculous.
first, him and palmar got into a big argument, especially during the night as he just waltzed in after-deadline, voted for psych to visit ferry, but only AFTER trying to dissuade us from ... using this plan completely! Clearly, this particular variation of the plan has been checked and re-checked, and the worst case scenario has been fixed, such that it's actually a good plan. keeping in mind a townie perspective, he would have no reason to randomly say "oh btw this plan sucks lol"
y'all should also remember he was a suspect of palmar. overall, not to say town=right, but palmar's reasons were good-natured and I personally agree with his conclusion, especially after knowing that. u should too.
Anger
On August 28 2011 04:51 JeeJee wrote: are you guys being serious right now? holy shit
On August 28 2011 07:18 JeeJee wrote: k believe whatever you want, i stated everything there is to state (hell, i said i'd ignore it but you clowns keep bringing it up again). lynching me is a bad idea.
now, back to business what do you guys think about my chaos13 case?
On August 28 2011 07:21 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I went back through and tried to look for other examples from JeeJee, they don't exsist. That umad just looks so forced though... ##Vote JeeJee
On August 28 2011 09:49 JeeJee wrote: wow not a single person has a brain fine lynch me ##vote jeejee
oh boy, we're way past majority only 9 hours into this day!
Bargaining
On August 28 2011 10:17 JeeJee wrote: i'll put my closing thoughts after day wraps up, before i'm officially dead. i already have it written up, hence the defeatist tone. there's nothing more for me to say, plus it's 10/12 already . wanna make this a 24hr day so this pain stops quicker? :X
can you believe i'm actually getting lynched for this nonsense? blah i'm going to sleep. if i wake up and everyone's still hell-bent on voting me for no reason, i am going to do something terrible
On August 29 2011 05:09 Forumite wrote: JeeJee hasn´t changed my mind with his recent posts. JeeJee, if you have a big reveal, then you might want to post it. Waiting until the night doesn´t help Town.
Also, I´m fairly sure Sevryn is Toww, but I don´t know what that is...
I don't have a big reveal, who gave you that idea? I do have a bunch of final thoughts that'll probably change how you approach this game though. That combined with my flip should be enough to make all of you reconsider your stances at least a bit.
Acceptance
On August 29 2011 07:52 JeeJee wrote: You know what you guys remind me of? Hyenas eager for blood. This gives me an idea..
On August 29 2011 07:52 JeeJee wrote: You know what you guys remind me of? Hyenas eager for blood. This gives me an idea..
You haven´t given us much, if any, reason to doubt this lynch. You are acting like the textbook example of a Scum that got found out. Of course we are eager to get it over with.
but i'm a psychologist
You don´t think it would have been a good idea to tell us earlier!? Seriously! You are just hurting Town when you act like this. We are not going to lynch a blue who is most likely getting killed directly after claiming anyway, but you don´t give us much time to find another target.
On August 29 2011 09:06 Cyber_Cheese wrote: It makes sense to me that since the psych is only able to become insane at night, that they would suicide by morning.
I'd like to throw suspicion of forumite for actually believing the psych claim:
On August 29 2011 07:52 JeeJee wrote: You know what you guys remind me of? Hyenas eager for blood. This gives me an idea..
You haven´t given us much, if any, reason to doubt this lynch. You are acting like the textbook example of a Scum that got found out. Of course we are eager to get it over with.
but i'm a psychologist
You don´t think it would have been a good idea to tell us earlier!? Seriously! You are just hurting Town when you act like this. We are not going to lynch a blue who is most likely getting killed directly after claiming anyway, but you don´t give us much time to find another target.
On August 28 2011 23:36 chaos13 wrote: Maybe this is just a misunderstanding between us. For now I'm content with this
On August 28 2011 23:27 tnkted wrote: BTW this is a stupid conversation and isn't finding us scum, we should change the topic
And just for the record, you aren't too high up on my lynch list. As for some discussion, what do you think the chances are of Jackal being the EA and why?
The F? Didn't you just make a giant post saying that tnkted is one of the scum? and then you say he isnt high up on your lynch list? what an excellent contradiction you have made there sir
JeeJee, sevryn, and Jackal are all higher.
My lynch order of choice would be JeeJee, Jackal, sevryn, tnkted.
Why Jackal? Can anyone tell me which role in the game would want to spend 3 hours looking for breadcrumbs?
I don't think it makes sense for jackal to bus his teamate this early... Unless you're suggesting he's EA, which I suppose is possible. I think jeejee > sevryn is our best bet right now.
On August 29 2011 13:06 tnkted wrote: I don't think it makes sense for jackal to bus his teamate this early... Unless you're suggesting he's EA, which I suppose is possible. I think jeejee > sevryn is our best bet right now.
except the case on me relys only on you and jeejee being scum
On August 29 2011 13:33 tnkted wrote: What are you talking about? Why would me being scum have anything to do with Jee Jee being preoccupied with you in half his posts?
On August 29 2011 07:52 JeeJee wrote: You know what you guys remind me of? Hyenas eager for blood. This gives me an idea..
You haven´t given us much, if any, reason to doubt this lynch. You are acting like the textbook example of a Scum that got found out. Of course we are eager to get it over with.
but i'm a psychologist
You don´t think it would have been a good idea to tell us earlier!? Seriously! You are just hurting Town when you act like this. We are not going to lynch a blue who is most likely getting killed directly after claiming anyway, but you don´t give us much time to find another target.
Okay, who did you check during the first night?
##Unvote
I checked chaos13. Why do you think I'm so bent on him being an EA? I am insane now. I commit suicide at dusk, so your lynch is going to be wasted. That's why I was laughing so hard at you guys
I thought the Psychologist die immediately. Okay, if you are the psychologist and found Chaos13, why didn´t you just claim immediately after the Daypost, we could have lynched Chaos13 today, or else save the lynch on Chaos13 and look for scum today, secure that we could deal with the EA when we needed to.
Even if this is all true, your play is hurting Town.
No, psych dies in 48 hours. It's not like when you go insane your head explodes. You follow the standard five stages, roleplay optional. I chose to roleplay. Hell just look over my posts today:
On August 28 2011 02:50 Jackal58 wrote: Coag is my son Twinkles. He just made it to Ga. He's on his way to Fl. Naked Tuesdays are now back in vogue.
Palmar once again I am guilty of looking at you with a jaundiced eye. Sorry man.
Day ones poopfest centering on breadcrumbing made me curious as to who if anybody had.
On August 27 2011 03:33 JeeJee wrote:
indeed, this is an interesting point. making sure that the scenario where ea/psych visit one another is accounted for properly is all we've focused on, but the most likely thing to happen is that neither will visit another. someone's basically not-EA if that happens
checking palmar is the best idea i think. under the assumption that psych decides to follow the plan (i dont see why he wouldnt), i'd be hella more comfortable knowing palmar's not the EA. my other suggestion is wiggles.
ugh, you read my mind. my god, where did the 'horror' come from. and like everyone's saying it too. damn shit annoys me :<
##visit palmar
I could probably do this with every post in this game but each of those letters follow a period. I don't believe in accidents.
surely you're not serious. look hard enough and i'm sure you can find something like this in anyone's posts if they post enough. major fos on both tnkted and wiggles for just jumping on this without thinking it's simply a coincidence.
On August 28 2011 03:38 JeeJee wrote: and for god's sake it doesn't even make sense "after every period... except this one letter, but let's pretend it's good too" really?
why am i even arguing this is ridiculous
back to business, on chaos13
his contributions have consisted of -tunnelling tnkted -not reading the thread
first, him and palmar got into a big argument, especially during the night as he just waltzed in after-deadline, voted for psych to visit ferry, but only AFTER trying to dissuade us from ... using this plan completely! Clearly, this particular variation of the plan has been checked and re-checked, and the worst case scenario has been fixed, such that it's actually a good plan. keeping in mind a townie perspective, he would have no reason to randomly say "oh btw this plan sucks lol"
y'all should also remember he was a suspect of palmar. overall, not to say town=right, but palmar's reasons were good-natured and I personally agree with his conclusion, especially after knowing that. u should too.
and just for you jackal, this post spells 'fuck you'. how ridiculous.
first, him and palmar got into a big argument, especially during the night as he just waltzed in after-deadline, voted for psych to visit ferry, but only AFTER trying to dissuade us from ... using this plan completely! Clearly, this particular variation of the plan has been checked and re-checked, and the worst case scenario has been fixed, such that it's actually a good plan. keeping in mind a townie perspective, he would have no reason to randomly say "oh btw this plan sucks lol"
y'all should also remember he was a suspect of palmar. overall, not to say town=right, but palmar's reasons were good-natured and I personally agree with his conclusion, especially after knowing that. u should too.
On August 28 2011 07:18 JeeJee wrote: k believe whatever you want, i stated everything there is to state (hell, i said i'd ignore it but you clowns keep bringing it up again). lynching me is a bad idea.
now, back to business what do you guys think about my chaos13 case?
On August 28 2011 07:21 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I went back through and tried to look for other examples from JeeJee, they don't exsist. That umad just looks so forced though... ##Vote JeeJee
On August 28 2011 10:17 JeeJee wrote: i'll put my closing thoughts after day wraps up, before i'm officially dead. i already have it written up, hence the defeatist tone. there's nothing more for me to say, plus it's 10/12 already . wanna make this a 24hr day so this pain stops quicker? :X
can you believe i'm actually getting lynched for this nonsense? blah i'm going to sleep. if i wake up and everyone's still hell-bent on voting me for no reason, i am going to do something terrible
On August 29 2011 05:09 Forumite wrote: JeeJee hasn´t changed my mind with his recent posts. JeeJee, if you have a big reveal, then you might want to post it. Waiting until the night doesn´t help Town.
Also, I´m fairly sure Sevryn is Toww, but I don´t know what that is...
I don't have a big reveal, who gave you that idea? I do have a bunch of final thoughts that'll probably change how you approach this game though. That combined with my flip should be enough to make all of you reconsider your stances at least a bit.
On August 28 2011 23:36 chaos13 wrote: Maybe this is just a misunderstanding between us. For now I'm content with this
On August 28 2011 23:27 tnkted wrote: BTW this is a stupid conversation and isn't finding us scum, we should change the topic
And just for the record, you aren't too high up on my lynch list. As for some discussion, what do you think the chances are of Jackal being the EA and why?
The F? Didn't you just make a giant post saying that tnkted is one of the scum? and then you say he isnt high up on your lynch list? what an excellent contradiction you have made there sir
JeeJee, sevryn, and Jackal are all higher.
My lynch order of choice would be JeeJee, Jackal, sevryn, tnkted.
Why Jackal? Can anyone tell me which role in the game would want to spend 3 hours looking for breadcrumbs?
The father role. I was killing time and drinking coffee waiting for a call from my son telling me he arrived at the motel they were spending the night at.
On August 29 2011 13:06 tnkted wrote: I don't think it makes sense for jackal to bus his teamate this early... Unless you're suggesting he's EA, which I suppose is possible. I think jeejee > sevryn is our best bet right now.
On August 29 2011 13:06 tnkted wrote: I don't think it makes sense for jackal to bus his teamate this early... Unless you're suggesting he's EA, which I suppose is possible. I think jeejee > sevryn is our best bet right now.
Yes, Jackal is EA. I'm sure of it.
Really? And what brings you to that conclusion? My belief that scum are more dangerous to us than the EA at this stage of the game? I suggest you look at the two people with the least amount of posts in this game. One of them is the EA.
On August 29 2011 13:06 tnkted wrote: I don't think it makes sense for jackal to bus his teamate this early... Unless you're suggesting he's EA, which I suppose is possible. I think jeejee > sevryn is our best bet right now.
Yes, Jackal is EA. I'm sure of it.
Really? And what brings you to that conclusion? My belief that scum are more dangerous to us than the EA at this stage of the game? I suggest you look at the two people with the least amount of posts in this game. One of them is the EA.
No, it's that you spent 3 hours looking for breadcrumbs. I know you've given an explanation already, but I'm not buying it. I can see taking 3 hours looking back through the thread and trying to analyze while you wait for him to call, but why were you looking for breadcrumbs? Let's go through each role and see what motivation they would have for that.
Townie - No logical reason. Maybe they're looking for psych/doctor, but what will they do with that information? They have no way to figure out if it is a lie or not, since anyone can breadcrumb anything when the role PM's are in the OP.
Doctor - Looking for psych so they can protect them. Unfortunately, this possibility is ruled out since Palmar already flipped doc.
Psychologist - Same as Townie. EA sure as hell isn't going to breadcrumb their role, and players don't know if they're sane or not so they can't crumb whether or not they've been visited. No point in it.
Mafia - Looking for doc or (maybe) psychologist to take them out early on.
EA - After there had been a plan or two pushed for that included the psychologist breadcrumbing their role, this makes perfect sense. Maybe the psych is an inexperienced player who did it before understanding how the plan was detrimental, or maybe they're an experienced player who did the same. EA wants to remove the only barrier to their win condition as soon as possible. Visit the psych, and you've reduced the number of sane players by 1 and also prevented future obstacles. The psych is the only one likely to have breadcrumbed (except mafia :p ) and now that the doc is dead the EA is the only one likely to be looking for it.
So the only two roles that it actually seems reasonable to spend so much time searching for crumbs are anti-town. Even in games as mafia when I was searching for crumbs to find blue roles I never spent that much time, and in this setup there are no hugely anti-mafia power roles. As far as mafia is concerned, the psych helps them if they are visited by EA. This is the only logical conclusion. Jackal found JeeJee's post, and figured he could gain some town cred by pointing it out.
The only reason I did it was on a lark to kill time. If I was EA or scum I'd have the absolute minimum number of posts in this game. Like Eiii or Errandor. You're inventing scenarios.
NIGHT TWO: The butchery we could stand no more. Before the intoxicated crowd could pivot their bloodlust toward the shrieking stranger, I grabbed Dr. Mariell's hand and flew betwixt decrepit shacks. Momentarily all was madness, bestial cries and serpentine path and rampaging footfalls. When we finally came to, none but the devouring silence abode.
Two of us sought to escape while the day was bright. Utterly clueless about where to proceed, still the vast mountainous forest seemed more preferable than this accursed remnant which housed insanity. Hours passed... and we found ourselves lost, geometry of the village so unintuitive that exit eluded us, akin to behemoth spiderweb unwilling to let its struggling prey abscond.
By the time sun oozed red, the doctor was suffering from nervous breakdown, and I feared for his lucidity should the conditions persist. That was when we stumbled upon the body of the man.
We´re mostly giving scum and EA advice on who to hit when we discuss during the night. Sometimes waiting until after the night is safer. Apart from directing psychologist, analysis can wait.
Also, there's nothing wrong with analysis during the night, just release it a couple minutes before the day post, if you can. That way, if you get shot, your analysis still gets released, and if you don't get shot, then whatever, it doesn't hurt to have your thoughts out there.
On August 30 2011 02:40 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Also, there's nothing wrong with analysis during the night, just release it a couple minutes before the day post, if you can. That way, if you get shot, your analysis still gets released, and if you don't get shot, then whatever, it doesn't hurt to have your thoughts out there.
It was either post analysis now and discuss, or before the daypost. I think I´ll drop it off later.
As for Psych visit, both Chaos13 and Jackal sounds like good visits.
Ok ok not much happened, thank you for understanding hesmyrr, FOS Jackal and ##Visit Jackal (I say we keep using this format) because that was an almost unbelievable find though I will say that him catching the UMAD is at least believable, I'll look at it again but I did notice that the UMAD was much more noticeable than the I'm scum part.
Also stronger FOS on Forumite that unvote just seemed like an "ok guys here's a reason not to vote him let's all jump off" unvote given by a scum buddy, I did consider unvoting when he claimed because he would be certain to die anyway but only after a lot of thought which I would have brought up in any post, I also ended up deciding against it. Forumite on the other hand completely accepts what he says and tries to make it a question of "ok he's a blue what should we do now?" not "is he a blue?"
On August 30 2011 05:16 Navillus wrote: Also stronger FOS on Forumite that unvote just seemed like an "ok guys here's a reason not to vote him let's all jump off" unvote given by a scum buddy, I did consider unvoting when he claimed because he would be certain to die anyway but only after a lot of thought which I would have brought up in any post, I also ended up deciding against it. Forumite on the other hand completely accepts what he says and tries to make it a question of "ok he's a blue what should we do now?" not "is he a blue?"
It was an easy claim to go along with, because lying wouldn´t save him. Either he really is the psychologist and had found Chaos13, we didn´t get an answer from GM so we couldn´t disapprove it yet, or he´s a lying scum. If a psychologist then he dies during the next night, if he´s Scum then we lynch him the next day, but until then he might do some more scumslips and incriminate his buddies.
On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13.
I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?
On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13.
I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?
On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13.
I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?
Right...
##Visit Jackal58
Explain to me how our psych visiting him is good. It doesn't kill the EA, it doesn't remove him from the game, it doesn't take away his power, and we have no way of knowing for sure if the psych actually visited who everyone voted for. It gets us a dead townie. Instead, they should visit who they think was most likely targeted last night.
On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13.
I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?
Show me your reasoning. And whoever the Psych is feel free to visit me. You'll be safe and sane in the morning. Stay away from Erandorr and Eiii though. Eiii doesn't normally lurk. I have no idea who Erandorr is though or how he plays. In 3, 2, 1........
On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13.
I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?
Right...
##Visit Jackal58
Explain to me how our psych visiting him is good. It doesn't kill the EA, it doesn't remove him from the game, it doesn't take away his power, and we have no way of knowing for sure if the psych actually visited who everyone voted for. It gets us a dead townie. Instead, they should visit who they think was most likely targeted last night.
On August 30 2011 05:16 Navillus wrote: Also stronger FOS on Forumite that unvote just seemed like an "ok guys here's a reason not to vote him let's all jump off" unvote given by a scum buddy, I did consider unvoting when he claimed because he would be certain to die anyway but only after a lot of thought which I would have brought up in any post, I also ended up deciding against it. Forumite on the other hand completely accepts what he says and tries to make it a question of "ok he's a blue what should we do now?" not "is he a blue?"
It was an easy claim to go along with, because lying wouldn´t save him. Either he really is the psychologist and had found Chaos13, we didn´t get an answer from GM so we couldn´t disapprove it yet, or he´s a lying scum. If a psychologist then he dies during the next night, if he´s Scum then we lynch him the next day, but until then he might do some more scumslips and incriminate his buddies.
See now if you had said this back then I would find it much more believable, but you didn't you completely assumed that he was being honest and didn't even bring up the possibility of him lying.
On August 30 2011 05:16 Navillus wrote: Also stronger FOS on Forumite that unvote just seemed like an "ok guys here's a reason not to vote him let's all jump off" unvote given by a scum buddy, I did consider unvoting when he claimed because he would be certain to die anyway but only after a lot of thought which I would have brought up in any post, I also ended up deciding against it. Forumite on the other hand completely accepts what he says and tries to make it a question of "ok he's a blue what should we do now?" not "is he a blue?"
It was an easy claim to go along with, because lying wouldn´t save him. Either he really is the psychologist and had found Chaos13, we didn´t get an answer from GM so we couldn´t disapprove it yet, or he´s a lying scum. If a psychologist then he dies during the next night, if he´s Scum then we lynch him the next day, but until then he might do some more scumslips and incriminate his buddies.
See now if you had said this back then I would find it much more believable, but you didn't you completely assumed that he was being honest and didn't even bring up the possibility of him lying.
On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13.
I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?
Right...
##Visit Jackal58
Explain to me how our psych visiting him is good. It doesn't kill the EA, it doesn't remove him from the game, it doesn't take away his power, and we have no way of knowing for sure if the psych actually visited who everyone voted for. It gets us a dead townie. Instead, they should visit who they think was most likely targeted last night.
It´s complicated. My vote is for jackal to get a visit from the Psychologist.
On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13.
I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?
Right...
##Visit Jackal58
Explain to me how our psych visiting him is good. It doesn't kill the EA, it doesn't remove him from the game, it doesn't take away his power, and we have no way of knowing for sure if the psych actually visited who everyone voted for. It gets us a dead townie. Instead, they should visit who they think was most likely targeted last night.
On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13.
I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?
Right...
##Visit Jackal58
Explain to me how our psych visiting him is good. It doesn't kill the EA, it doesn't remove him from the game, it doesn't take away his power, and we have no way of knowing for sure if the psych actually visited who everyone voted for. It gets us a dead townie. Instead, they should visit who they think was most likely targeted last night.
Because if the psych follows the voting pattern, we know who the EA is when the Psych commits suicide.
On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13.
I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?
That's the whole point, it's like extra details we can help turn into a case against him
On August 29 2011 13:06 tnkted wrote: I don't think it makes sense for jackal to bus his teamate this early... Unless you're suggesting he's EA, which I suppose is possible. I think jeejee > sevryn is our best bet right now.
Yes, Jackal is EA. I'm sure of it.
Really? And what brings you to that conclusion? My belief that scum are more dangerous to us than the EA at this stage of the game? I suggest you look at the two people with the least amount of posts in this game. One of them is the EA.
No, it's that you spent 3 hours looking for breadcrumbs. I know you've given an explanation already, but I'm not buying it. I can see taking 3 hours looking back through the thread and trying to analyze while you wait for him to call, but why were you looking for breadcrumbs? Let's go through each role and see what motivation they would have for that.
Townie - No logical reason. Maybe they're looking for psych/doctor, but what will they do with that information? They have no way to figure out if it is a lie or not, since anyone can breadcrumb anything when the role PM's are in the OP.
Doctor - Looking for psych so they can protect them. Unfortunately, this possibility is ruled out since Palmar already flipped doc.
Psychologist - Same as Townie. EA sure as hell isn't going to breadcrumb their role, and players don't know if they're sane or not so they can't crumb whether or not they've been visited. No point in it.
Mafia - Looking for doc or (maybe) psychologist to take them out early on.
EA - After there had been a plan or two pushed for that included the psychologist breadcrumbing their role, this makes perfect sense. Maybe the psych is an inexperienced player who did it before understanding how the plan was detrimental, or maybe they're an experienced player who did the same. EA wants to remove the only barrier to their win condition as soon as possible. Visit the psych, and you've reduced the number of sane players by 1 and also prevented future obstacles. The psych is the only one likely to have breadcrumbed (except mafia :p ) and now that the doc is dead the EA is the only one likely to be looking for it.
So the only two roles that it actually seems reasonable to spend so much time searching for crumbs are anti-town. Even in games as mafia when I was searching for crumbs to find blue roles I never spent that much time, and in this setup there are no hugely anti-mafia power roles. As far as mafia is concerned, the psych helps them if they are visited by EA. This is the only logical conclusion. Jackal found JeeJee's post, and figured he could gain some town cred by pointing it out.
Why can't any role go through and try to figure out who's who?
The doc is dead, so the only person that sanity negatively affects is the psych, and even before that the doc would have to reveal to get made sane, so this whole game it's better for psych to look for EA, even more so than when we did it last night.
First of all, apologies for being out, I've been without power, rained on, flooded, and generally unable to post for the last two days. I'll make up for that now, by giving you the third scum, first of all Wiggles is still scum he should, without a doubt, be our lynch tomorrow. If anyone needs me to restate my arguments or has a compelling reason why I might be wrong they should let me know, but JeeJee's behavior, pretty much seals the deal there, especially his mention that I am "tunneling" and his refusal to comment on my case on wiggles.
I should not need to say more on that topic, but if you want me to, feel free to ask.
However I would like to present my next scumsuspect, the candidate for the third anti-town member, chaos13, could we get an applause for this man? He has so far presented what to a casual observer might seem like a pro-town facade, but is in reality just scum trying to blend in. Lets present my case, point by point
chaos13: called out by dead scum
The post that first called my attention to chaos13 was made by none other than our esteemed, late, JeeJee when "trying to deflect the wagon off himself" as chaos will argue. This is the post in question. Why did it make me notice chaos13, a player I had till that point decided was town? Because JeeJee was doing damage control, when JeeJee's breadcrumb was caught, he knew, as did any good player, that he was fucked, there was literally no way to squirm out of that. Any smart scum in that situation would try to generate misinformation by "accusing" a scumbuddy, allowing the buddy to later get some credence by having been attacked by confirmed scum. This is damage control 101, and it immediately made me re-read everything chaos13 had posted so far in the thread, I also took the time to read up on his meta.
For now let us consider this a point against chaos13, the fact that confirmed scum accused him when they were almost certain to get lynched. Now, let us take a look at what chaos13 has actually posted so far.
Chaos13's Posts
There are a few posts by chaos13 that at first don't seem to stand out, but that, when looked at show scum behavior. It was this post that deepened my suspicions. Since its such a long post, I'm going to quote it in bits, and comment on the pieces that are relevant, while skipping those that are not.
On August 28 2011 23:02 chaos13 wrote: Warning - Wall of text on JeeJee.
On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so:
NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario.
If anyone needs more evidence that JeeJee is scum, here it is. He's discouraging mafia hunting and simultaneously puts on a show of mafia hunting. Since EA is a standalone third party role (doesn't know any other role/alignments, no other role alignments know EA) the only way that Cyber could be distancing himself from Ferryman is if they are mafia together. Just one sentence before he discourages people trying to find mafia, saying that apparently it's better to find the EA.
This is... *fascinating*. Let me ask you all a question, when as town have you ever felt the need to strengthen the accusation on someone who already has the vast majority of the votes? The correct answer is *never*, what is the point of making an accusation of someone who is already going to be lynched? Especially if there is no counter wagon forming? there is none. Unless of course your goal is to farm credit by affirming how you *knew* he was scum, and pointing to your "analysis". This is particularly relevant because its the exact inverse of what JeeJee did, its an attempt to set up a dichotomy that didn't exist, it is a distancing attempt. That is the second strike against chaos13. He actively tries to distance himself from JeeJee
Next chaos13 has the *kindness* of summarizing things we can already read, in an attempt to fluff up his post and make it seem longer and more pro-town, much the same way bad players or scum include every post by a player in their analysis to buff it up. This isn't necessarily scummy, just bad, I'm not going to hold it against him.
On August 28 2011 23:02 chaos13 wrote: This is where things get really interesting. Previous to this he has ignored almost everything else that's going on to focus on Cyber. He completely ignored the Wiggles/Ferryman situation, the chaos/tnkted sitiuation, and Palmar's craziness. Something about this set him off, however.
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 26 2011 08:27 Jackal58 wrote: I'll buy that Ferryman. Makes more sense to me than the EH push.
On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum. If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch
its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese
not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too?
Something about Jackal touching on the subject of sevryn/tnkted makes JeeJee feel the need to jump to their defense. sevryn's defense specifically. Note that he said "How is sevryn remotely related to tnkted?", not "How is tnkted related to sevryn?"
My questions at this point 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal?
Question 2 has a simple answer. Question 1 is a little more confusing.
JeeJee has had some interactions with sevryn, but nothing telling. The only thing notable about them is that he's very sparing in interacting with people. It was just Cyber until Jackal came in with this, and one post exchanged with sevryn at the very beginning of the game.
I would like to go back to the two questions I had about sevryn, tnkted, and JeeJee. For reference those were
1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal?
The simple answer to question 2 is -
*drumroll*
sevryn is JeeJee's scumbuddy.
So back to 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted?
Well we have to remember, tnkt was getting a lot of suspicion yesterday, and a lot of votes. It seemed likely that he would be lynched. The only sort of lynch it would be bad to be connected to is a red one. A mafia will never want to be connected to another mafia lynch, except to push it as hard as they can.
My guess at mafia team right now. JeeJee sevryn tnkted
Of these three, my thoughts have changed since yesterday and I am least sure of tnkted. I also have to examine sevryn's posts more thoroughly, but there is a clear connection between him and JeeJee.
Here I cut out the whole WIFOM crap about hitting Palmar at night and JeeJee's "suspicion's" of wiggles (read, distancing), because they are not relevant. Instead I am going to talk about a very basic concept of mafia, that is associations between players, and more specifically how mafia behave. Mafia avoid talking about other mafia players, they feel guilty and want to avoid incriminating their partners in crime by not talking about them when they can possibly avoid it. In fact I became suspicious of JeeJee, because he didn't comment on wiggles, while he was willing to comment on Cheese, and on breadcrumbs, and to a lesser extent, Syvern. In fact, the fact that he ignored both wiggles and the Palmar/chaos discussion, makes me almost sure of these two reads.
I think tnkted is town, and JeeJee was trying to get a link between Syvern and tnkted by "discrediting" jackals, link, notice how he doesn't provide any arguments, just bashes it, that's one way of calling attention to a link without being associated with it. chaos13, is simply carrying this idea forward, he is pushing a simplistic approach to catch mafia, he is insisting that because JeeJee defended someone, the person he defended must be scum. this is simplistic not only simplistic, but its downright pushing a bad lynch.
Reading over past games, chaos13 is not afraid to push bad lynches in fact its one of the reasons why he is good scum, he is great at providing bs analysis to get somewhat scummy players who are not scum lynched.
A side by side comparison of a post from another game where chaos13 was scum and a post this game. Here is his accusation of Munk-E from mafia XLII, where chaos13 was scum
On August 06 2011 13:09 chaos13 wrote: So, Munk-E, our resident lurker. He has a grand total of seven - that's right, SEVEN posts in the game up to date. Lurking is defined as anti-town by every player of mafia, and this guy is giving a top-level course in it right now. He was almost modkilled for his lack of posting.
But player x is protected in this case, and they wouldn't shoot player Y! They'd shoot player Z because shooting Y would give away the role and if x was the obvious one to protect, they'd assume he was protected.
That being said I highly doubt there are 2 medics anyways so if this situation does arise, I would be VERY suspicious of both of them.
As for the plan, I'm quite worried about it. We would have a confirmed townie, which could be nice IF he could manage to efficiently manage the entire game. It seems a bit risky if they're not very good, they might screw it up and reveal roles. Also, the medic would be tied to defending this one person the entire time no matter what. If someone shows they are DT or vigi, then the mafia will just shoot both if we haven't killed 2 by then. In the mean time, the mafia could just kill him outright, or pick 2 people they KNOW won't be protected, and it's entirely up to them. If they do kill him, then we have (likely) 2 dead townies, and be back to square 1! No confirmed townie, just a dead guy, and the guy he killed.I kind of think that people are hoping he does hit a Mafia, but I really don't see the logic in this plan. It's more likely he'll hit someone important on our team than a mafia.
In the end, i suppose it's entirely up to the dayvigi if the plan goes through, but it just seems highly illogical to me.
This post is, obviously, addressing sandroba's plan. The majority of it is logical, makes sense, and doesn't seem to push a mafia agenda really. One thing doesn't sit will with me, however, and that is where he casts suspicion on multiple medic claims. At this point, he shouldn't have a clue as to the setup. It's as if he is setting town up for something that will come later, which would most likely be the mafia GF (JeeJee, anyone?) claiming medic. The mafia team can then push for a lynch on the real medic with support from town, if this seed planted by Munk-E grew at all.
Alright guys, it's game on. I'd like to start with a suggestion. It's very basic, but very vital.
Vig's, be you day or night, holster your gun and try to ignore the itch of your trigger finger. This holds true in every game, but it's especially important in this one. Look at the role list, and see how much kp we potentially have in the game. Every vig role has two shots, half of them can shoot during the day. That's a lot of kp that will be a lot more useful later on.
Dayvigs: If you must shoot, claim and let us discuss. If you're willing to shoot, make sure that you've got approval from the town. Gut shots are wrong as often as they're right.
Hatters: You guys are special, because even if the scumbag mafia doesn't kill you, your bob-ombs will still go off. You also can't move them, so I don't think it's a smart idea to place them from the get go. Wait a day/night cycle, at least. It's for the good of everybody.
With that said, let's get to the game and kill us some scum. As an aside, i'm currently very dissapointed that Kurumi didn't give me my favorite class, though I guess it can't be helped, he wasn't in the game anyways.
Here he says to not shoot day 1, unless you want to that is, then just reveal your plan forcing you to shoot anyways because you're gonna die, because you revealed your role. I don't see his opinion, because he keeps changing it in this post. at the beginning he says to not shoot, as always and it is especially important in this game, followed by him saying it's okay for dayvigs to shoot. Furthermore he tells them to claim before shooting! Claiming is a death sentence, and it means they'd have to shoot to take people down with them, because they're gonna die anyway.
As an aside, does anyone know what his favorite role is?
My only real qualm about the plan is the possibility of 2 dead townies day 1, but I don't see a huge problem with setting up a town circle around a confirmed dayvig.
People shouldn't be expecting shitloads of blues though. If we have a medic, which we might not, (21 players, remember) they will be tied up making sure the only confirmed player doesn't kick the bucket.
Nothing should be shared in IRC that would not be shared in thread, by the way. If our confirmed town wants to direct blues or if people want to claim to him, do it in PMs, for the love of god, and don't start talking in thread or irc like you're a confirmed blue.
The only one who should know is the confirmed townie. Information leaks kills blues in PM games.
Should we use the plan, I suggest a very simple system: vote normally. Whoever has the most votes dies.
So, here he fully supports the plan again despite his own extra important rule of not shooting day 1. He first says no shooting, then says maybe IF you make sure your going to get yourself killed, and finally now he's all for it!
A serious question: Do you guys think we'll have a better chance of killing scum if we do this day 1?
If we can kill scum it's worth it (durr) but otherwise I have a safer suggestion:
Why don't we wait until there are only 2 mafia left. That way they can't doublestack and we don't lose a blue role night 1.
this is after being asked why he likes the plan after he gave his own piece of evidence against it (above)! He gives no answer. Instead, he reverts to a compromise of his beloved plan. and no varpulis, it's a 20% chance. I'm not willing to take that risk, especially because it's roughly the same odds we'll hit a blue.
I'm fairly sure that i'm not scum, unless I have a serious problem with reading pms.
RedFF I'm not so sure on. I'm leaning scum because he started off his "no plan" campaign without evidence or an argument, and then just picked up DrH's and copied it, it seems.
That said, I don't disagree with DrH. Our confirmed townie will be dead night 1, and we'll be back to square one, possibly with 2 dead townies. Again, the plan is really good, but only if we wait for mafia to not have enough kp to override the medic protect we will most likely be able to slap on the confirmed townie.
To address Mig's accusation: In irc sandroba didn't explain his plan entirely. I read it as "double lynch day 1" period. That in itself is very bad. The good part of the plan is the confirmed townie. When he posted and explained that point, It sounded good.
Then I realized that mafia can double stack and just kill the confirmed townie, it sounded bad again, until i figured out a solution.
Is there a real reason that we need to use the plan right now? With patience, it will work better, i guarantee.
Here his is accusing redff for taking the position of the argument HE'S taking! (Maybe he lost track by now!) It seems like he's just trying to accuse someone for the sake of accusing!
Wishy-washy doesn't even begin to explain this. He just won't make up his mind! While I'm not sure this indicates him 100% as being scum, it is VERY suspicious. Unfortunately however, I don't think it's possible to brand him as scum from JUST this. but he's certainly quite possibly scum.
Note that here he promises more analysis later.
I would like to bring everyone's attention to the very last paragraph of this. Paraphrased: "Varp is scum because he's wishy washy. This doesn't make him scum for sure, but it's really suspicious. However, I can't call him scum from this, but he's possible scum."
This is a clear bus on a teammate, and he's labeling varp scum for the same behavior he is displaying.
I agree with san's plan. The main benefits of the double lynch are 1) extra information right away. 2) everyone can claim to a confirmed townie so that townie can organize the blues for n1.
And forcing all the blues to claim to the day vig puts the mafia in a shitty situation. Either A) they can not claim at all to him and then he can direct the other vigs to just shoot into the much smaller pool of vanilla townies or B) they can risk trying to claim blue roles and outing themselves because the # of roles is suspicious, for example if 3 vets claimed.
Killing for "Information" is just plain stupid. That's saying a random lynch is a good idea! 1 night of well organized night actions is not worth it at all. I have stated my ideas on this plan before, and to me it seems the only people for it would be scum, or, frankly, dumb people. The mafia would all claim scout, because it would be to risky to claim anything else. and after night 1, no one knows each other's roles again. He can't pm them to all the other blues, just IN CASE one of the mafia did claim a blue role. Enough about that though. He also says then to shoot at the smaller batch because there would be about 16 people which is less. So great, we take a 20% chance of hitting a mafia followed immediately by a MAXIMUM of a 25% chance. by the end of night 1 we'd be likely 4 townies down depending on our lynch.
On August 02 2011 23:52 Mig wrote: Varpulis looks the most scummy to me so far.
Initially in IRC he was extremely against sandroba's plan.
[14:31] <Varpulis> 24 hours in? no no no no. [14:32] <youngminii> i've got a solution: shoot bc AND sand [14:32] <syllogism> 24h isnt enough but otherwise it's not awful [14:32] <Varpulis> wait until day 2 at the least. [14:33] <Varpulis> how often does the day 1 lynch hit scum? not so often. A day 1 double lynch is a HORRIBLE idea
However once he posts in the thread his opinion goes from strong to neutral and wishy washy. His posts contributed nothing and were extremely bland/common advice.
Along with that he completely misinterprets trotske's post here to cast a very weak Fos on him.
On August 02 2011 09:56 Varpulis wrote:
On August 02 2011 09:46 Trotske wrote: If you use the sniper as a second lynch but don't have him claim until he is out of kills he can't get taken out until he is just a normal townie.
And since the sniper would be acting on the towns behalf it would show you who was pushing really hard for the vig shot on a townie. and let you reexamine what the townie who got shot had said because he was now a confirmed townie.
Wait wait wait
You're promoting the a plan where vigs just shoot without claiming, and kill townies for information.
FoS.
So basically this game Varp has promised some pro town ideas while not actually contributing anything to the town. Has strong opinions in IRC when people aren't around but is afraid to take a strong stance in the thread. And instead of making a real case against anyone he casts a very weak suspicion on trotske with poor reasoning.
##Vote Varpulis
Here mig votes for varp for being wishy washy. That might be fine except he's against him for saying the plan where we take a random shot without knowing is bad. obviously this is bad, and he uses this quote to accuse him? I don't see why he would unless he's trying to put pressure on him for being against this plan! It doesn't make sense to me, and frankly seems scummy.
JeeJee you are correct on this point but what exactly does pointing it out contribute? You have 2 posts and both of them while correct are bland and useless. You commented on pressure votes and neglected to comment on whether you actually thought varp was scummy or not.
Who do you think is scum? What do you think about the 2 leading candidates varp/red?
He seems VERY eager to get everyone's opinion on everyone, he PMed me asking my opinion on chaos and varp, to which i responded blandly and generically. It seems to me like he is trying to find out who's most likely to be lynched in the future so he can defend them if necessary. I don't see why a townie would need to know everyone's opinion on everyone.
On a side note I find it strange when people say they aren't suspicious of anyone, I am not sure if it makes you scummy or lazy town. Mafia is a game where everyone is guilty until proven innocent. 3 pages in and I can find reasons to suspect half the town.
So even with all your experience JeeJee you can't find anyone who stands out as scummy so far? Really?
He seems to be trying to pressure G.G. here. Not to accuse him of potentially being scum, but to try to get his opinion on people. He seems like his only here to find out our opinions on each other! The only reasons I can think of for this would be to start a civil war between townies or try to manipulate votes. Both seem very scummy.
I have a pretty simple defense. People should actually read my posts. Where have I backed down after putting pressure on people? What mafia objectives have I pushed? Look at the questions I asked varp and JeeJee. Was I trying to slander them or cast suspicion on them to look like I was fake contributing? Or was I asking legitimate questions that the town should be asking.
The town has almost no activity and I am actively trying to get people to post in IRC. What a scummy thing for me to do! I have pmd half the people in town asking them for their opinions. And I have no problem with giving my opinions on people. No one has to force me to contribute.
So just ask yourself if my play is helping the town or helping mafia. If you think I am helping mafia feel free to lynch me.
I have more posts than almost anyone in the thread lol? Including writing the most coherent case against Varp. Find someone who has made a stronger case than that in this thread.
Maybe this I didn't read the rules, but I'm pretty sure high post count =/= town. This is your only defense so far and it's not legitimate at all. I don't see why activity is a "town" thing to do. and why lurking is a mafia thing really, especially if being a lurker makes them suspected as being mafia. (Meta, huh?) Anyway, i might vote for him depending on if i think lucidity is more scummy or not.
(P.S. Saying "If you think I am helping mafia feel free to lynch me." is more of an invitation than a defense.)
This analysis came almost a full 24 hours after he promised it. Takes time to figure out how to call a town player scum, doesn't it? To begin with, this is an aggressive analysis against a player who has arguably been one of the most pro-town voices in the thread. After all, Mig called varp out before anyone else and was the driving force behind his lynch.
Take a look at the second paragraph of this analysis. He calls Mig out for voting Varp on the reason that he thought he was scum for being wishy washy. Remember that analysis of Varp? Main point was that he was wishy washy. Contradiction! Hypocrisy! Scum! Next, he blames varp for PM'ing people and discussing stuff with them. lol. Then he says he responded blandly and generically. LOL. Then he says he doesn't see how being active is a town trait. LMAO This is so scummy it's almost funny.
On August 04 2011 04:11 BloodyC0bbler wrote: MIG isn't even on the docket to get lynched right now, why would you analyze a player a few hours before the lynch who isn't going to get lynched?
He was before I went to bed yesterday, when I started.
All I can really say is +1 to BC. Makes absolutely no sense.
On August 03 2011 07:34 Lucidity wrote: I think you missed one of Varpulis' important posts Munk-E:
On August 03 2011 03:23 Varpulis wrote:
On August 03 2011 02:43 Mig wrote: Varp every post you make screams wishy washy to me. Where is the confident Varpulis I have played with in the past? Every opinion you give you list the pros and cons and then you end up taking a pretty neutral stance. I haven't seen you have a strong opinion of anything yet.
If you had to vote for someone right now who would it be for and why? Do you find anyone besides red scummy?
I got called out for wishy washiness in PTP (day 1) as well. Day 1 nothing is solid, there's rarely anything to base arguments off of until late in the day, and I'm usually focused on proving my activity, not calling people scum. I haven't taken a stance because I don't have a really strong feeling about anybody yet.
By the way, if we're going ahead with the plan, could we have a soldier/sniper claim? If there are none we need to reevaluate.
Yeah this is pretty important. Why on earth does he want soldiers to claim? It would FORCE them to sacrifice themselves for a random shot? He's so all over the plan, it makes me think that at first his scum buddies tried to endorse the plan, but when it was seen as bad, they backed off. He tried to make it continue in a way that couldn't POSSIBLY be beneficial and would help mafia a LOT. For some reason he seems to think activity is a reason that you're not scum! I never have and likely never will see the logic behind this. It seems like a scum's way of not having to post anything of value, yet still be considered a townie. For these reasons, i would like to
##vote Varpulis
Took a while to actually get around to a vote, especially after that big analysis on him that was done before. Reluctant to bus your scumbuddy, eh?
On August 03 2011 06:28 youngminii wrote: nah i was just kidding
Anyway, I'd rather Mig die than Lucidity/Varpulis. I dunno, the latter two just seem so.. Normal? While Mig is screaming "I'M SCUM".
Maybe it's just me.
-____- you're voting for varp as well.
The reason I quoted lucid was because he mentioned how I forgot that post. Which I did. It's an important post. My analysis of him before I mention his wishy washyness and how he tried this once. The fact that he tried it again is big! It says that he really wants them to claim and it wasn't a stupid idea he had for a minute.
TBH, It would have been a toss up between varp and lucid for me, but I haven't done proper analysis of lucid, so voting for him would look VERY suspicious. I think both are scum anyway.
You think both are scum, and yet you think it would look suspicious to vote for lucid?
So we've already found 2 scum in redFF and DoctorHelvetica who are opposing the plan without any real reasons? Good stuff.
A confirmed townie coordinating blues is brilliant. The only problem I can see is if scum impersonates medics. That could give away blue roles/leave our soldier vulnerable. Solution? Just have all medics protect the soldier for night 1. 1 Night of coordinated abilities is quite powerful and we'll have more info on Day 2.
this first post is very VERY for the plan to the point that he immediately calls scum on people for it. They both later attacked him for this, and Redff even voted to lynch him. I think he is WAY to for the plan here without even considering the consequences. It seems scummy to me to pressure people that disagree with you.
On August 02 2011 08:16 DoctorHelvetica wrote: if you read my posts i provided reasons
1. we dont know if there are more than 1 doctor which is kinda important 2. mafia can stack hits to kill the vig 3. vig could shoot doctor ruining everything 4. vig will probably hit town its rare you get a mafia on day 1 much less a successful day 1 vig
here ar emore reasons i havent provided yet 5. mafia can use this to keep town focused on the blue network/suspicious of other peoples claims and put attention on the vig and off of post analysis which is what wins games for town
what do you consider a real reason it would be nice if instead of unconditional instant support for someone elses plan which is mildly suspicious you read my posts and if my reasons aren't good enough at least say why instead of just saying "youre scum" lol
"we've already found 2 scum" its day 1 dont be ridiculous
1. Medics are basically the only problem I see at the moment. I don't think that qualifies as a reason to instantly discard the plan.
2. Having Mafia stack hits reduces their KP, which isn't a bad thing. We'll still have no overlaps on Night 1 from blues.
3. What?
4. That's the case on Day 2 as well.
On August 02 2011 07:42 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
On August 02 2011 07:26 Mig wrote: No just tell the vigs who to hit, medics who to protect, dts who to check. All he has to do is make sure nobody is overlapping or shooting each other. As long as the day vig doesn't reveal anything else mafia isn't going to gain very much information from it.
if this happens which i hope it doesnt i really hope you're not suggesting he openly tells the blues what to do in irc/thread
Another terrible attempt to stop the plan. Why would he be suggesting that?
Here DH is defending himself from lucidity's aggressiveness quite well, however he just continues to press the issue. He is still calling scum for having a different opinion here. He would give an arm and a leg for this plan it seems at this point.
On August 02 2011 08:46 redFF wrote: ...lol post the irc chat please, that is not a decent reason. Regardless, have any of you guys a scum saying he's a vig and figuring out who the other shots are at? or a scum saying he's a medic and finding out who's protecting who? I've played games where everyone has claimed to a "confirmed townie" and scum have raped and taken advantage of this, so please don't tell me the plan is faultless. If a vig is willing to use his shot as a lynch then it's ok. But I'm really not sure that day 1 is the best time to have a double lynch. Yeah the day when we have the least information and most likely to lynch town is when we should double lynch!
There, that's my opinion if you think it's scummy then vote me. Draz post what was scummy in the irc chat please.
How will he figure out who the other vig shots are aimed at? How will a fake medic find out who the other medics are protecting? Who said the plan is faultless?
I think I'll take your advice and vote for you!
##vote redFF
Here he votes for redFF (But doesn't actually vote for him). I find it strange that he's THIS passionate this early on in the game! I mean seriously WTF? He is given A LOT of reasons why the plan is dumb, but he refuses to hear it! He just keeps accusing!
Haha, I guess I was still in the Asylum mindset with mass blue everywhere - somehow thought that all 7 blue roles listed would be in the game. ~4 blues make sense and we're very unlikely to have 2 medics in that, so a plan to coordinate them this early isn't actually that great.
I think the only time that we should be claiming is if Mafia only have 1 KP left or if a Day Vig hits a Vet, leaving us with 2 confirmed townies. One of them will survive the night and be able to pass on info~
redFF, forever RED?
By this point, most people were against the plan. Yeah... I'm not sure how much I buy that defense of "Oops, klutzy me! I thought there'd be more medics!" as an excuse to completely change his mind from "This plan is so good that everyone against it is obviously scum" to. "This plan is stupid!" This is the scummiest post I think he's made. I mean it would be hard to make that transition, and it losing popularity requires you to if your against it so hard and you want to be in the majority. and why would you want to be in the majority so bad? If you're scum.
On August 03 2011 02:43 Mig wrote: Varp every post you make screams wishy washy to me. Where is the confident Varpulis I have played with in the past? Every opinion you give you list the pros and cons and then you end up taking a pretty neutral stance. I haven't seen you have a strong opinion of anything yet.
If you had to vote for someone right now who would it be for and why? Do you find anyone besides red scummy?
I got called out for wishy washiness in PTP (day 1) as well. Day 1 nothing is solid, there's rarely anything to base arguments off of until late in the day, and I'm usually focused on proving my activity, not calling people scum.[/b] I haven't taken a stance because I don't have a really strong feeling about anybody yet.
By the way, if we're going ahead with the plan, could we have a soldier/sniper claim? If there are none we need to reevaluate.
Lol dude wtf? I'm struggling to find any non-scum motive for wanting such a claim. Could you provide me with one?
And you're focused on maintaining your appearance as an active townie instead of hunting scum? Good stuff.
Mig's going crazy at people for not providing great posts on IRC, yet he's not doing what he's hounding others to do? Scum often employ such strategies. What's the dealio, yo?
This post astonished me. At first i thought since he voted for varp after it was the bandwagony thing to do. However, if you look at the time, at the time of this post Varp only had 2 votes for him from a while ago. This post sort of STARTS the bandwagon on varp! I don't know if this was intentional or not, but WTF! Up until now I was sure lucidity was scum, but this makes me wonder!
If it's such a waste of time why are you dedicating any time at all to it anymore? I don't think there has been serious majority support for the plan for long now, so there's no reason for you to talk about it. Every Day 1 has to start in some useless way before there's something to discuss. Why not use the posts that have been generated by this plan to start some discussion which you think might be useful?
Here he is completely against the plan now. He was so for it at first and now is completely against it. He even states that no one is for it anymore. His backing of the plan is directly proportional to it's overall popularity. He just wants to blend in, like a chameleon that works for the mafia.
In the end, I just don't know! He's VERY scummy with his bandwagon hopping when it comes to the plan, and sure he only voted varp after the bandwagon was rolling, but he was in second and might have done that to avoid being lynched, not to seem inconspicuous.if varp had flipped town, i would think he'd definitely be mafia, but he started a bandwagon on varp, it may be accidental for all i know and he was just trying to distance himself, but it seems strange that he would do this.
P.S. sorry about not talking at night i didn't know it was a rule.
This analysis is relatively weak, and what do we get at the end of it? A complete inconclusive. A repeat of his "Yeah, could be, but I don't know". Serious scum right here.
Conclusion: Munk-E is Mafia We take him out tonight or tomorrow without hesitation.
Does a post like that look familiar, have we seen one like it in the past?
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Oh!? You have a win condition other than winning with town?
derp.
lololo
#vote palmar
To begin with, we have him attacking an apparent scum slip by Palmar. Anyone with eyes can see that his slip was intended as a joke post, but apparently that's worth a vote.
On August 24 2011 09:45 tnkted wrote: Ferryman, if you are new, then welcome to mafia! You have a bright future here, and if you're town mafia will probably want to hit you n1.
In this case though, I think you might be right but lynching palmar is a better move here. Sir Jesse Wiggles ESQ (duke of yorkshire) is a notoriously difficult person to read at the best of times because he plays so close to the chest, and I've written my share of analysis on him and been wrong every time.
That being said, your evidence makes a lot of sense, and if we don't have any other leads tomorrow I'd be totally happy gettin' wiggy wit' it. But right now, palmar is a better lynch because
A) His response to the FOS has been very scummy B) The slip thing I mentioned earlier C) It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.
Keep your eye on Wiggles and if you find anything else we'll act on it. For now though, Palmar is scummier than wiggles and I'd rather lynch him,
Just some advice: the first post you posted felt to me like more of a pressure post (ie it wasn't very convincing) but the second one (the meta one) was much more convincing (wiggles rather comprehensive response notwithstanding).
Here is where tnkted really begins to show his scumminess. The first paragraph can be ignored. Paragraph #2 contains a multitude of mafia traits. To begin with, he agrees with Ferryman's position, but still feels that Palmar is a better lynch. Why? Because Wiggles is tough to get a read on. This is a cautious wishy-washy stance. He allows an excuse for being wrong, and is stuck on tunnel-mode on Palmar, because that is a perfect cover for mafia to hide under. Paragraph 3\ABC Par. 3 supports the wishy-washy scum stance seen earlier. The ABC's display a terribly weak case against Palmar. He states that Palmar's response to being accused was very scummy, but fails to explain how. Even a general statement of how it was scummy would be better, but there is absolutely nothing here. Then back to the "slip", and finally closing with a careless attitude towards lynching town. We should never want to lynch town. Day 1 is just as or more important than any other day, because if we can lessen their numbers now, they have fewer kills on N1 and beyond.
On August 24 2011 23:28 tnkted wrote: Okay, lets talk about Navillus and Palmar.
This is the reason why some people were suspecting Narvillus:
On August 24 2011 00:20 Navillus wrote: Dammit I need to role something more interesting than townie one of these days... anyway, I've never played a mini before so I'm very open to any mini-specific advice anyone has.
versus this:
On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote: I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved.
Which one of those seems scummier to you? To me, the second comment seems scummier by far.
Now, I'd be willing to believe that it was a joke if it wasn't for Palmar's response:
On August 24 2011 01:12 Palmar wrote: Right.
This is not what happened. My win condition is to eliminate all threats to town. I did not slip, you're trying to manufacture evidence out of something that doesn't exist. My joke can't even be shrugged off as bad town play because nothing exists in it that would indicate I'm not town.
This is a very sullen, angry response. Rather than joke around with my pressure and OMGUS, like Narvillus's did:
On August 24 2011 01:29 Navillus wrote: ##Vote: Jackal58
OMGUS
Narvillus wasn't worried about the pressure because he was having fun and joking around; he knew he was innocent and he knew that jackal thought he was innocent. Meanwhile, Palmar's FIRST INSTINCT upon being accused was to lash out. his FIRST INSTINCT is to accuse me of manufacturing evidence. Is that a reasonable response? I sure don't think it is.
So that's my case for accusing palmar. You can find it convincing, or you can find it unconvincing, I'm not really concerned about it. Much of what I just outlined happened in my head unconciously and I'm sort of explaining my scumdar pings after the fact, if that makes any sense.
So according to tnkted his vote on Palmar was a joke, and he didn't think it was actually a slip. He states that Palmar actually defending himself was scummy because a player like Navillus was relaxed and joked around, because the vote on him wasn't serious. Comparing these two gives a solid impression that tnkted's vote on Palmar was not intended to be serious, which means that only Palmar's reaction to it should have been used as evidence. As can be seen by the previous post I quoted, however, tnkted is still using it as proof that Palmar is mafia, still considering it a scum slip. That's a rather large hole in his argument I'd say.
Ok, several things are happening right now that need to stop.
1. Wifom. Go google 'wine in front of me' if you don't understand what this is. The post I just quoted was distilled seven times from fruit of the wifom bush, and if you were to drink it you'd get so drunk on overthought you'd end up throwing up all over qatol and get yourself banned. 2. Talk about 'taking responsibility for the lynch'. No, that's stupid, thats not how days generally work. Whoever gets lynched d1 gets lynched because the best case was made against them. The people who pushed that lynch the hardest aren't 'responsible' anymore than the people that they convinced. The arguement was just convincing. That's it.
If we lynch cyber_cheese, tomorrow I might be the one that's most to blame, but I'm no more responsible and it doesn't make me any scummier if he does flip green. There are thousands of townies that have pushed a wrong read and got somebody innocent lynched; the fact that they were SURE that their target is town doesn't make them scum, it just makes them wrong. That shit happens in mafia.
3. The same principle applies for things like 'x defended y and y flipped mafia so x must also be mafia'. This is erronious thinking; there's nothing stopping mafia from defending certain townies to gain town cred. Mafia doesn't care who gets lynched as long as its not one of them, and often times mafia will try to bus their own teammates to get town cred. Town credit is more important to mafia than almost anything else, because it's a coin that can be spent at lylo for a free win.
1. Nothing scummy about this content. Nothing town either.
2. In this section of his post, tnkted wants to remove responsibility from players for mislynches. That is a ridiculously scummy attitude. The people who pushed the lynch DO have to be responsible for it, otherwise mafia can get away with coming up with a case on a slightly scummy townie and get a mislynch every day, and according to you get away with it scot-free. If you're pushing for someone's lynch and they flip green, then you do get a bit scummier for it. If it happens consistently we really need to take a look at you and sort things out.
3. Wrong again. You want to take away the only tool we have for linking mafia to each other. When somebody flips red, or green for that matter, we look back at who they interacted with and how they interacted with them. You're pushing a seriously mafia agenda here. Responsibility is key in this game, because mafia without responsibility don't have to worry about anything.
tnkted is mafia.
[/b]
Oh, yes we have. Look at how similar these two posts are, how focused and convinced, not a shadow of doubt in the accusations. Full conviction, ownership, all of these *not* scum signs, yet despite it he is scum. What that means is we cannot use chaos13's tone as a determinant. Lets look at the differences between his accusation of munk-e in XLII and his accuastion of GMarshal in PTP1, where our good friend chaos13 was town
On May 31 2011 05:25 GMarshal wrote: Mataza has the ability to stick his foot in his mouth with ease, as he proved in SNMMIII, he also has a penchant for fake claiming roles, e.g. he considered claiming cop day 1 in SNMMIII, I'm just ignoring his statements about his role for now.
Also lets try to avoid a claim this early in the game, yes?
There was minimal pressure on Mataza, and there really wasn't any chance of him actually being chosen as the lynch for today based just on what was going on at the beginning of the thread. If GMarshal flips red, we can rest assured that Mataza is red as well. I see no reason for a townie to so quickly move to defending someone they should be suspicious of. Just because he played strangely in one game doesn't mean he will in another. So far Mataza's posting seems fairly solid to me.
On May 31 2011 05:59 sandroba wrote: EBWODP: That should have read we policy lynch ANYONE who claims without valuable information or lies about their role.
So, kind of what happened to tnkted when he claimed bulletproof in Sleeper Cell.
I like LAL, but we do *not* policy lynch as policy lynches keep us from gaining valuable information. We policy vigi shot. So if someone lies we just ignore them and let someone toss a kp at them at night.
I don't really see where a townie would be coming from with this. A mafia member would definitely want information/policy vigi shots rather than successful scum hits. What is even better about this post from a mafia perspective is that if they are called out on it, they can pass it off as a bad townie plan. However, many people have stated that GMarshal is a good player, and I do not think he would make a plan like this without understanding exactly how it works.
On June 01 2011 07:29 GMarshal wrote: Kurumi, if you keep spamming useless shit I'll make sure you eat a nice bullet later.
@People focusing on redFF's claim. Ignore the claim itself and focus on the reasoning behind it, remember if he is telling the truth about his role or lying is irrelevant.
Oh, since it seems like I'm not going to get much from torte ##Unvote ##Vote: Barundar
Barundar has all of one post. This is not an acceptable level of contribution.
@Kenpachi, you said that its too early to be pressuring inactives/lurkers. Its never to early to kill lurkers. If you dont deal with them early you have to deal with them later.
I really don't know what to think of this post. I know Kurumi has been contributing well now, and that at the time of this post he was discussing the pros/cons of roleclaims and potential scenarios in which it could be useful. GMarshal also claims here (I think?).
The middle of this post seems rather average, and the last bit is questionable again. Remember that lurkers can just as easily be town as scum. What we really want to be doing is sifting through the active players looking for scum. With lurkers, there is no way to differentiate between lurking town and lurking scum. The active players have given us more than enough to go on though. All in all, this is an extremely weak post for a townie, and a passable one for a mafia.
On June 01 2011 07:35 Mataza wrote: tl;du: Your plan prevents something from happening that won´t happen unless your plan was done already.
You say w/out your plan mafia can claim any role they want. But they can´t unless they somehow find out who created their roles. And right now your plan reveals exactly that.
We are done discussing a plan that will not be put into place. Both sides have been pretty clearly laid out.
Instead answer these questions. 1.) If you were a vigilante who would you shoot tonight 2.) if you were a kingmaker who would you make king tomorrow 3.) what is your favorite colour 4.) Of all the players with more than ten posts in the game at the moment, which seem the scummiest?
At first I saw nothing wrong with this post, and even answered it myself. Then someone explained how it is scummy. It goes something like this 1. Mafia will avoid wasting a shot on that player if they are town. If they are mafia they will kill the player who said it. 2. Mafia will be inclined to kill this player. 3. Wat? Doesn't make any sense for a townie to ask this unless it is part of their role, which I really really doubt. 4. This one is the most pro-town question, but can also work for mafia. If Town: -Gives more input -Creates mores discussion and analysis If Mafia: -Gives mafia team an idea on who they can push for a lynch -Gives mafia team an idea if any of their players are standing out
The rest of his posts have been relatively useless. They created some minor discussion without actually forcing GM to contribute. As for votes, he has gone from Torte de Lini to Barundar, both times stating it is a pressure vote, but neither time trying to get other people to help him pressure vote. Why is this scummy? Look at the majority of players. They are trying to catch scum and vote for the players they think are scummy. What GM is doing is getting in his vote without resulting in suspicion cast on him when he tries to push for a townie lynch and they flip green. If someone calls him out on it he can say "But I was pressuring lurkers!". It is a tactic I used often as scum in a game on UG.
In conclusion, GM has had a few pro-mafia points in his posts, and the rest are a way of contributing without contributing. His votes are not useful to town, but he is able to pass them off as in town's best interests if questioned. I feel he is a player that has managed to fly just under the radar for the whole game, and that we really need to put some pressure on him. As I have mentioned before, read every one of his posts considering why he would say what he has if he was mafia and if he was town.
##Vote GMarshal
What is the chief difference between the first two posts and the last one? The last one, takes time to consider how a townie would think and contrasts it with GMarshal's behavior (he was wrong as it happened), but the first two only point out mafia heuristics, rather than trying to go into any depth as to what the motivation behind the posts is. that is, his analysis as town attempts to be deep while his analysis as scum is both shallow and easy to fake. This is a difference in the thought pattern, in the first two posts chaos13 is going for the *easy* points, while in the second one he is going for motivations. This is an essential intrinsic difference and a clear giveaway of chaos13's real alignment.
There is also the difference in target level, in PTP chaos13 wasn't afraid to go after a vet like GMarshal, yet in this game he has stuck to lower level players, like Svyern and tnkted, who aren't as hard to focus on.
Since we were just talking about heuristics, lets look at chaos13's Post like
On August 27 2011 20:50 chaos13 wrote: I wasn't convinced of his case on Mr. Wiggles. It was a whole bunch of meta that, while useful in some situations, didn't actually hold up in this case.
Where he makes statements ("didn't actually hold up") without supporting them are clear and obvious attempts at discrediting an argument, without providing supporting evidence. Accusing me of being the EH, which he does earlier is an example of the same, my argument against wiggles is too tight for him to take down on his own, so he is going to instead try to discredit me. This is scum 101 folks, if you can't kill the argument, discredit the person behind it.
On August 27 2011 21:28 Palmar wrote: are you intentionally not putting any effort into the game chaos13?
Are you intentionally trying to screw over town by wasting extensions and lynches?
Doing my best Palmar, but I am exhausted right now. I'll have more time for this game in a day or two.
Once again discrediting a town player, who chaos13 himself admitted earlier he thought was town, also giving excuses, when town doesn't need to justify itself. These are all relatively shallow tells but when taken with other evidence they seal the deal for me.
the TL:DR
For the lazy chaos13 has 1.) Been distanced by confirmed scum 2.) tried to milk the same scum lynch for minor credit 3.) Made shallow links between players 4.) Posted analysis in a style similar to his scumstyle and dissimilar to his town style 5.) Shown several minor "scumtells" or heuristics, including defending wiggles, who is scum 6.) has attempted to discredit me in order to avoid having to defend wiggles from the body of my accusations
conclusion, chaos13 is scum I want to lynch him right after we kill wiggles, (wiggles first of course).
Your entire post against me is based on semantics, so there's nothing I can really say to defend myself against it. One big thing you seemed to have missed though, is that my post on JeeJee was not to provide extra evidence for him being scum. It's to find his other mafia buddies. You'll notice that it's just an aside at the very beginning that shows how JJ is mafia. Everything else is about his relations to other players. If I'm wrong about how mafia communicate with each other, so be it. I'll learn from this game later.
I am not here to judge, chaos13, the town will do that in the morning.
I don't expect to be around to see it.
I remind the rest of the town to lynch wiggles whatever happens. Do not let him squirm out of it, avoiding the spotlight like he has been. Chaos13 can go after.
On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13.
I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?
He says we should lynch Jackal without being sure, that we should trust his feel about the lynch. If Jackal is the EA, and the Psych dies finding him, then we loose a Town player. A town argument, saving a player from needlessly dying, except if the Psychologist visits Jackal and survives the night, then Jackal can´t be the EA. Chaos13 has no chance of lynching a confirmed Townie, so he tries to make sure the Psych isn´t sent to Jackal. Scum don´t push to lynch confirmed Townies, they nightkill them, the talk tonight could have been just that, scum trying to get a feel for how a lynch on Jackal would go.
----
My original analysis post was actually going to be about how TheFerryman looked scummy. Part of it is irrelevant now, but I still want to hear his answer on the other thing. My FoS on him was pointing out two things. First, that he didn´t play like he did early in the game, with big analysis and metagame arguments. With the FoS on Chaos13, that´s no longer the case, Ferryman is back to his original style. The other thing I wondered about Ferryman is still relevant though, and has to do with two unassuming comments in his posts during Day 1, see below. Twice he says he was going to, or was in the middle of doing, a metagame analysis of JeeJee, but didn´t deliver, or update on his thoughts. It´s not a damning scumtell, but looks bad, and I want to hear what happened to that analysis.
On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote: Finally, I'm getting weird vibes from JeeJee, I need to go back and read up on his meta. JeeJee, what's the last game you rolled town (preferably a normal or mini)? I'm going to go check SNMMIII (i think that was the game) for your scum meta.
On August 25 2011 08:56 TheFerryman wrote: @Wiggles, you ask me for scum-reads, well, so far you are the only one that sticks out to me, I'm suspicious of JeeJee, but I haven't yet caught up with his meta (reading through games takes a while), however I certainly have my eye on him.
DAY THREE: Pristine condition of the corpse had disturbed us greatly, even with cautious study the cause of death indeterminable. The search did yield a loaded pistol which I pocketed. While utterly useless against whatever that had caused the man's demise, nevertheless it may serve well should we have stumbled onto the villagers again. Still, it was we who decided to advance toward the disturbance when gunshot suddenly rang out far away, so foreign to this abnormal atmosphere that it sounded almost extraterrestrial. Having conceded that the place is impossible to navigate, we would resort to stalking, just hairbreadth away from danger.
The place we reached was the large countryseat, now great battlefield burning. Apparently the outsiders had made their nest here and just discovered, and was barely holding off from being overwhelmed with their superior firepower. Eventually these two was able to break free, shooting the cloaked man who jumped into their route with vicious yell. We watched as the combatants started to disperse under the chaos. And we followed.
TheFerryman, Townie(Sane), was killed.
Disclaimer that flavour post obviously have no bearing on the game. The deadline ends at September 1 2011 23:52 KST, which is 14:52 GMT (+00:00)
On August 31 2011 00:02 Forumite wrote: This is why we post analysis at the end of the night, to avoid becoming a target for the Scum, and creating WIFOM.
Disregarding the nightkill for a while, I think Chaos13 is scummy for his craplogical push on Jackal, reasoning in my analysis post above.
Explain to me what about my argument for him being EA is wrong or illogical, and give me a better idea of who it could be. I'm always open to discussion.
With that in mind, you guys think I'm scummy. So pressure me. I'll answer to the best of my ability and if you still feel I'm anti-town after that, then I can relax knowing that at least I provided a bunch of information before being lynched and that I played the game as well as I can.
If I were EA Chaos The Ferryman would not have been sane. I considered him to be high on the list of probable Psychs. Were I EA he would have been my night one visit. If I were scum Chaos you would be dead today and not the Ferryman. So unless you are either A) The EA or B) Scum please kindly start looking for realsies instead of insisting I am something I'm not. Of course if you are either scum or EA please continue to tunnel me.
On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13.
I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?
That's the whole point, it's like extra details we can help turn into a case against him
On August 29 2011 13:06 tnkted wrote: I don't think it makes sense for jackal to bus his teamate this early... Unless you're suggesting he's EA, which I suppose is possible. I think jeejee > sevryn is our best bet right now.
Yes, Jackal is EA. I'm sure of it.
Really? And what brings you to that conclusion? My belief that scum are more dangerous to us than the EA at this stage of the game? I suggest you look at the two people with the least amount of posts in this game. One of them is the EA.
No, it's that you spent 3 hours looking for breadcrumbs. I know you've given an explanation already, but I'm not buying it. I can see taking 3 hours looking back through the thread and trying to analyze while you wait for him to call, but why were you looking for breadcrumbs? Let's go through each role and see what motivation they would have for that.
Townie - No logical reason. Maybe they're looking for psych/doctor, but what will they do with that information? They have no way to figure out if it is a lie or not, since anyone can breadcrumb anything when the role PM's are in the OP.
Doctor - Looking for psych so they can protect them. Unfortunately, this possibility is ruled out since Palmar already flipped doc.
Psychologist - Same as Townie. EA sure as hell isn't going to breadcrumb their role, and players don't know if they're sane or not so they can't crumb whether or not they've been visited. No point in it.
Mafia - Looking for doc or (maybe) psychologist to take them out early on.
EA - After there had been a plan or two pushed for that included the psychologist breadcrumbing their role, this makes perfect sense. Maybe the psych is an inexperienced player who did it before understanding how the plan was detrimental, or maybe they're an experienced player who did the same. EA wants to remove the only barrier to their win condition as soon as possible. Visit the psych, and you've reduced the number of sane players by 1 and also prevented future obstacles. The psych is the only one likely to have breadcrumbed (except mafia :p ) and now that the doc is dead the EA is the only one likely to be looking for it.
So the only two roles that it actually seems reasonable to spend so much time searching for crumbs are anti-town. Even in games as mafia when I was searching for crumbs to find blue roles I never spent that much time, and in this setup there are no hugely anti-mafia power roles. As far as mafia is concerned, the psych helps them if they are visited by EA. This is the only logical conclusion. Jackal found JeeJee's post, and figured he could gain some town cred by pointing it out.
Why can't any role go through and try to figure out who's who?
I'm not sold on a chaos lynch yet... he seems more like, dumb than someone posting scum objectives. Jackal clearly isn't EA or we'd have lost our psychologist.
On August 31 2011 01:33 Jackal58 wrote: If I were EA Chaos The Ferryman would not have been sane. I considered him to be high on the list of probable Psychs. Were I EA he would have been my night one visit. If I were scum Chaos you would be dead today and not the Ferryman. So unless you are either A) The EA or B) Scum please kindly start looking for realsies instead of insisting I am something I'm not. Of course if you are either scum or EA please continue to tunnel me.
This is total wifom here. It would be so easy for you to say this from an EA or mafia perspective, so it doesn't go any length to convincing me you're town. With that said, I seem to be the only one suspicious of you, so pursuing you will do no good for today.
On August 31 2011 01:38 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
##Vote Chaos13
You're doing an excellent job of voting for me with no explanation and completely ignoring my request to pressure me if you think I'm suspicious. If you want to vote for me, don't leave the information where it's at. Ask me questions and see if my responses are still scummy. Point out the mafia/EA objectives I have been pushing this game. If at the end of the day I'm still your #1 suspect, so be it. Don't do a one-liner vote.
On August 31 2011 03:19 tnkted wrote: I'm not sold on a chaos lynch yet... he seems more like, dumb than someone posting scum objectives. Jackal clearly isn't EA or we'd have lost our psychologist.
Did we all abandon the wiggles lynch?
Thanks :p
I'm doing my best here.
I'd like to find out from everyone why they think Jackal isn't the EA, because from my perspective he is the most likely candidate for it right now. Maybe some outside opinions will help me figure things out.
On August 31 2011 03:19 tnkted wrote: I'm not sold on a chaos lynch yet... he seems more like, dumb than someone posting scum objectives. Jackal clearly isn't EA or we'd have lost our psychologist.
Did we all abandon the wiggles lynch?
Unless you are either the EA or the Psychologist you cannot make that claim. No matter how true it is you possess no knowledge of who the Psychologist visited unless you are him. The other option is you are the EA.
You're doing an excellent job of voting for me with no explanation and completely ignoring my request to pressure me if you think I'm suspicious. If you want to vote for me, don't leave the information where it's at. Ask me questions and see if my responses are still scummy. Point out the mafia/EA objectives I have been pushing this game. If at the end of the day I'm still your #1 suspect, so be it. Don't do a one-liner vote.
On August 31 2011 01:33 Jackal58 wrote: If I were EA Chaos The Ferryman would not have been sane. I considered him to be high on the list of probable Psychs. Were I EA he would have been my night one visit. If I were scum Chaos you would be dead today and not the Ferryman. So unless you are either A) The EA or B) Scum please kindly start looking for realsies instead of insisting I am something I'm not. Of course if you are either scum or EA please continue to tunnel me.
This is total wifom here. It would be so easy for you to say this from an EA or mafia perspective, so it doesn't go any length to convincing me you're town. With that said, I seem to be the only one suspicious of you, so pursuing you will do no good for today.
You're doing an excellent job of voting for me with no explanation and completely ignoring my request to pressure me if you think I'm suspicious. If you want to vote for me, don't leave the information where it's at. Ask me questions and see if my responses are still scummy. Point out the mafia/EA objectives I have been pushing this game. If at the end of the day I'm still your #1 suspect, so be it. Don't do a one-liner vote.
On August 31 2011 03:19 tnkted wrote: I'm not sold on a chaos lynch yet... he seems more like, dumb than someone posting scum objectives. Jackal clearly isn't EA or we'd have lost our psychologist.
Did we all abandon the wiggles lynch?
Thanks :p
I'm doing my best here.
I'd like to find out from everyone why they think Jackal isn't the EA, because from my perspective he is the most likely candidate for it right now. Maybe some outside opinions will help me figure things out.
Your only reason for calling me the EA is because I spent Sunday morning looking for breadcrumbs. I spent Sunday morning looking for breadcrumbs because I was sitting next to my phone waiting for my kid to call me. Let it go man. There are several other peoples in this game that have shown more interest in the Psych and the EA than I have. We also have 2 people that hardly post at all. Look at them first.
You're doing an excellent job of voting for me with no explanation and completely ignoring my request to pressure me if you think I'm suspicious. If you want to vote for me, don't leave the information where it's at. Ask me questions and see if my responses are still scummy. Point out the mafia/EA objectives I have been pushing this game. If at the end of the day I'm still your #1 suspect, so be it. Don't do a one-liner vote.
Take a second look at who I quoted
I saw that. I also saw zero explanation of why you think I'm anti-town.
Chaos, do you have any other analysis/reasoning to believe that Jackal is the EA besides that he found the breadcrumb? Can you relate his thread behaviour and posting in general to how he is the EA?
I'm wondering if you actually have anything stronger than just that he found the breadcrumb. Also, try to write it from an objective stand-point, and not one where you begin with the thought that he's already the EA.
On August 31 2011 03:59 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Chaos, do you have any other analysis/reasoning to believe that Jackal is the EA besides that he found the breadcrumb? Can you relate his thread behaviour and posting in general to how he is the EA?
I'm wondering if you actually have anything stronger than just that he found the breadcrumb. Also, try to write it from an objective stand-point, and not one where you begin with the thought that he's already the EA.
Number of insane players: 1-3/10
Yes, I'll actually write a proper analysis later this afternoon that covers everything. I have to head out the door in a minute or two, so I don't have time to do it right now. # of insane players could actually be 0, if psych and EA visited the same person each night. EA's action goes through first, meaning the player is already insane once the pysch visits them, so they're cured of their insanity the same night it happens.
On August 31 2011 03:19 tnkted wrote: I'm not sold on a chaos lynch yet... he seems more like, dumb than someone posting scum objectives. Jackal clearly isn't EA or we'd have lost our psychologist.
Did we all abandon the wiggles lynch?
Unless you are either the EA or the Psychologist you cannot make that claim. No matter how true it is you possess no knowledge of who the Psychologist visited unless you are him. The other option is you are the EA.
I think I can make that claim assuming that the psychologist is following orders and visiting the person we voted for. We all voted for you, so we can assume that psych visited you and didn't die. That's what im basing that claim on.
On August 31 2011 03:59 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Chaos, do you have any other analysis/reasoning to believe that Jackal is the EA besides that he found the breadcrumb? Can you relate his thread behaviour and posting in general to how he is the EA?
I'm wondering if you actually have anything stronger than just that he found the breadcrumb. Also, try to write it from an objective stand-point, and not one where you begin with the thought that he's already the EA.
Number of insane players: 1-3/10
Yes, I'll actually write a proper analysis later this afternoon that covers everything. I have to head out the door in a minute or two, so I don't have time to do it right now. # of insane players could actually be 0, if psych and EA visited the same person each night. EA's action goes through first, meaning the player is already insane once the pysch visits them, so they're cured of their insanity the same night it happens.
I know that, but EA counts as insane, so the minimum is 1.
On August 31 2011 03:19 tnkted wrote: I'm not sold on a chaos lynch yet... he seems more like, dumb than someone posting scum objectives. Jackal clearly isn't EA or we'd have lost our psychologist.
Did we all abandon the wiggles lynch?
Unless you are either the EA or the Psychologist you cannot make that claim. No matter how true it is you possess no knowledge of who the Psychologist visited unless you are him. The other option is you are the EA.
I think I can make that claim assuming that the psychologist is following orders and visiting the person we voted for. We all voted for you, so we can assume that psych visited you and didn't die. That's what im basing that claim on.
I like it how Erandorr come when you make a FoS on him =)
Chaos13, you haven´t seen/answered the FoS I sent on you, it went out just before the new day, and regards the same thing Cyber pointed out. Basically, it´s that you didn´t want to send the Psych on Jackal, who you think is the EA. You argued that it´s a waste to send the Psych to die, it might look that way, but it´s craplogic. If we get the EA because the Psych die finding him, then we can be much more sure on the lynch. Also, if we send the Psych and he doesn´t die, then we can be more or less sure that Jackal is not the EA. That´s the thing that looked bad, it looked like you wanted to make sure that Jackal was not cleared of EA-suspicion, so that you could lynch him today.
Anyway, I´m looking forward to that analysis on Jackal. I want to hear what made you so sure about Jackal that you thought a Psych verification was unnecessary.
I have no idea if the Psych visited me or not. It wouldn't matter if he did unless I'm insane. I am not the EA. I cannot visit anybody at night. I cannot harm the Psych if he does visit me. I wish people would quit assuming that the Psych visited me. We have no idea if he did. We certainly don't want him claiming until the EA is dead. So please stop assuming I was visited. That kind of thinking is going to get us in a pickle.
On August 31 2011 08:21 Jackal58 wrote: I have no idea if the Psych visited me or not. It wouldn't matter if he did unless I'm insane. I am not the EA. I cannot visit anybody at night. I cannot harm the Psych if he does visit me. I wish people would quit assuming that the Psych visited me. We have no idea if he did. We certainly don't want him claiming until the EA is dead. So please stop assuming I was visited. That kind of thinking is going to get us in a pickle.
I know we asked the Psych to visit you and you didn´t die, that´s something.
On August 31 2011 08:21 Jackal58 wrote: I have no idea if the Psych visited me or not. It wouldn't matter if he did unless I'm insane. I am not the EA. I cannot visit anybody at night. I cannot harm the Psych if he does visit me. I wish people would quit assuming that the Psych visited me. We have no idea if he did. We certainly don't want him claiming until the EA is dead. So please stop assuming I was visited. That kind of thinking is going to get us in a pickle.
I support this post of Jackal's. We can vote on who the psych should visit all we want, but we have no way of knowing if they did or not. If I were psych, I would probably be picking my own target, since voting gives EA too much information, and I would rather visit someone insane than the EA. It's much better in the long run to have the pysch alive and lynch the EA based on analysis alone.
On August 31 2011 07:03 Forumite wrote: I like it how Erandorr come when you make a FoS on him =)
Chaos13, you haven´t seen/answered the FoS I sent on you, it went out just before the new day, and regards the same thing Cyber pointed out. Basically, it´s that you didn´t want to send the Psych on Jackal, who you think is the EA. You argued that it´s a waste to send the Psych to die, it might look that way, but it´s craplogic. If we get the EA because the Psych die finding him, then we can be much more sure on the lynch. Also, if we send the Psych and he doesn´t die, then we can be more or less sure that Jackal is not the EA. That´s the thing that looked bad, it looked like you wanted to make sure that Jackal was not cleared of EA-suspicion, so that you could lynch him today.
Anyway, I´m looking forward to that analysis on Jackal. I want to hear what made you so sure about Jackal that you thought a Psych verification was unnecessary.
I've pretty much addressed this above. If I think Jackal is the EA, why should I want the psych to go visit him and get killed? That defeats the point of the skipped night phase. I would much rather the psych visit someone insane and cure them, and keep the EA farther from their win condition than have the pysch go get themselves killed when we can't actually confirm that they visited the target everyone voted on.
Analysis on Jackal in progress. Will be up in an hour or two probably.
Chaos remember that mini game where in your mind I had to be mafia because I told town what to be aware of when scum tried to contact each other (Was a game the scum team didn't know each others identities) and how to look for it? Ya you're doing it again dude.
General consensus seems to be that I'm wasting time. So be it. Jackal is no longer a suspect. I'll start looking elsewhere.
Put forward your ideas. I still want to see them. This is right up there with people believing the Psych visited me. Complacency will kill us as surely as misplaced zeal. At least give me a synopsis of it. If this game comes down to lylo and we're still both in it and you're town and you believe me to be scum or 3rd party we're fucked. Unless you're scum or the EA then stuff it.
General consensus seems to be that I'm wasting time. So be it. Jackal is no longer a suspect. I'll start looking elsewhere.
Wait, what? So, you think Jackal is scum, most likely EA, but because other people don't agree (before you've even posted an actual analysis), you just drop it?
The point of analysis is to convince people to agree with you, and show them your reasoning for your reads. Even if you made an analysis, and came to the conclusion that Jackal is actually town, that's still useful for town.
Dropping your suspicion so easily because people don't initially agree with your read, and without even trying to convince them, just makes it seem like you thought your case was weak to begin with, meaning you were just looking to start a bandwagon on someone.
On August 31 2011 07:03 Forumite wrote: I like it how Erandorr come when you make a FoS on him =)
Chaos13, you haven´t seen/answered the FoS I sent on you, it went out just before the new day, and regards the same thing Cyber pointed out. Basically, it´s that you didn´t want to send the Psych on Jackal, who you think is the EA. You argued that it´s a waste to send the Psych to die, it might look that way, but it´s craplogic. If we get the EA because the Psych die finding him, then we can be much more sure on the lynch. Also, if we send the Psych and he doesn´t die, then we can be more or less sure that Jackal is not the EA. That´s the thing that looked bad, it looked like you wanted to make sure that Jackal was not cleared of EA-suspicion, so that you could lynch him today.
Anyway, I´m looking forward to that analysis on Jackal. I want to hear what made you so sure about Jackal that you thought a Psych verification was unnecessary.
I've pretty much addressed this above. If I think Jackal is the EA, why should I want the psych to go visit him and get killed? That defeats the point of the skipped night phase. I would much rather the psych visit someone insane and cure them, and keep the EA farther from their win condition than have the pysch go get themselves killed when we can't actually confirm that they visited the target everyone voted on.
Analysis on Jackal in progress. Will be up in an hour or two probably.
That explains it, I missed/scimmed over your earlier explanation. We view this differently, I think finding the EA is the important job of the Psychologist, while you think it´s keeping people sane.
As for Jackal, I still want to hear your analysis.
Because they're waiting for my analysis of you. Sorry about the wait everyone, I was frustrated with this game last night and decided it would be best to clear my head and smarten up before attempting some analysis.
Let me preface this by saying I am no longer at all sure that Jackal is EA. There's evidence for it, but when the whole town starts questioning you there comes a point where you begin to wonder if you're sniffing down the wrong trail.
So here we go.
What needs to be determined first is what the goals of the EA will actually be. This is simple. 1) Visit the psychologist 2) Do some serious mafia hunting. You want town cred and you're not afraid of getting hit for being correct.
A lot of Jackal's posts are solid. He's really good at not giving anything away without making it obvious. I'll just go with the posts that stand out to me.
On August 25 2011 08:10 Jackal58 wrote: My apologies for my absence. It was a brutal day at work today. The fuckers broke everything.
I have only read this page and will get caught up shortly but I do have a question for the Ferryman. You state rightly so that we are here to lynch scum. Yet you are obsessed with the EH. Why? I understand he's 3rd party. I understand he's anti town. I also understand that he won't kill anybody barring a chance encounter with the psych. Scum are most certainly going to begin killing us. Fuck the EH for now. We have bigger fish to fry. Of course I might be all wrong as I have just read this page atm and if so I'll be more than happy to stfu after I get caught up. I'll post my thoughts in a bit. I also have to catch up on XLIX.
While this is a reasonable post, it has some strange motivations behind it. He would really like Ferryman to quit searching so hard for the EA, because apparently scum are more important. Let's see how that would work out. 3 scum, takes us 3 days to lynch. 3 kills by that point, 3 lynches, and possibility of psych dying due to EA.
That brings us down to
2 insane townies 3 sane townies 1 EA
Assuming we lynched mafia every day from day 1, this is a worst case scenario, with the EA visiting the psych and two townies who survived. This doesn't look too good to me.
Whereas if we lynch the EA, we skip a night phase and get 2 lynches in a row...looks good to me. Jackal isn't one to miss something like this. EA and mafia are equal priority, and his wanting to take out mafia over EA doesn't look too good.
On August 25 2011 08:46 Jackal58 wrote: If anybody ever accuses me of tunneling again I'm going to bitch slap them. Ferryman we get it. You think Wiggles is the EH. You may very well be right. Guess what? Right now I don't care about the EH. But you sure as hell do. You are either the psych or scum. I know you have a very good grasp on how this game works. You are also on the opposite end of the brilliance spectrum from Cyber_cheese. Put your efforts into something other than tunneling your EH suspect. Please. I'm filtering all of you from most to least interesting so I'm going to be a while.
Again, he's pushing Ferryman away from hunting the EA. Something I would really like to point out is this
On August 25 2011 08:46 Jackal58 wrote: You are either the psych or scum.
No possibility of him being the EA. What better cover would there be for an EA than hunting for their own role? Not for a moment does Jackal consider this possibility. In games I've played previously I've been about to hit submit and then realized I made a slip like this. I consider this to be a slip revealing that he's the EA.
On August 28 2011 10:06 Navillus wrote: Also the writing is weird and looks forced, but... Jackal how on earth did you notice that???
Because the writing was forced and weird.
Ehhh, more specifics what made you look closely, what did you notice first, how did you see it?
I spent almost 3 hours looking at every post in this game for breadcrumbs. I wasn't looking at anything of Jee Jee's in particular. I saw the U Mad first. And then found the rest. I found one other post that may contain a breadcrumb but I'm not positive it is. At any rate I am not going to share that post, or user, or what he may be claiming. Y'all can go find it yourselves.
I've already gone over this stuff, but I'll mention it briefly again.
3 hours looking for breadcrumbs? Jackal's hunting the psych, which you'll remember is priority #1 of the EA.
On August 31 2011 01:33 Jackal58 wrote: If I were EA Chaos The Ferryman would not have been sane. I considered him to be high on the list of probable Psychs. Were I EA he would have been my night one visit. If I were scum Chaos you would be dead today and not the Ferryman. So unless you are either A) The EA or B) Scum please kindly start looking for realsies instead of insisting I am something I'm not. Of course if you are either scum or EA please continue to tunnel me.
And then this.
Sorry for wasting so much time yesterday. Let the discussion begin.
To: Tackster [ Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: important notice Date: 8/31/11 22:57 I got my university schedule finalized and I highly doubt I'll be around 23 KST. So I will have to ask you to extend/end day 3 for me.
After that you can set the night 3 deadline to 22:00 KST and I can take over from there.
@Jackal58 He hadn't posted for over 48 hours, so I PM'd him to see what is up. Usually I'll do this silently to avoid clogging, but since I had to announce night 3 deadline change anyway I threw it in.
Player List 1. Mr. Wiggles 2. Cyber_Cheese 3. Sevryn 4. TheFerryman 5. chaos13 6. Palmar 7. Navillus 8. Eiii 9. JeeJee 10. Jackal58 11. Forumite 12. Erandorr 13. tnkted
These are my reads. So, before we start getting off track here, ##vote: sevryn like we should have been doing earlier.
I'm getting red vibe off forumite. If you read his post history it's all soft FoS's that he doesn't really follow through on.
I don't think chaos13 is scum, I just think he doesn't read very closely and gets too excited about his 'scumtells' that don't actually mean anything.
That being said, Chaos, you aren't reacting properly to pressure at all. I think you're town, but if you keep acting batshit insane whenever people don't agree with you, I'm changing my vote to follow wiggles.
And I'm just gonna spoiler this and answer below. Most of it addresses the same issue so my answer will cover most of it. + Show Spoiler +
On August 31 2011 22:36 chaos13 wrote: Because they're waiting for my analysis of you. Sorry about the wait everyone, I was frustrated with this game last night and decided it would be best to clear my head and smarten up before attempting some analysis.
Let me preface this by saying I am no longer at all sure that Jackal is EA. There's evidence for it, but when the whole town starts questioning you there comes a point where you begin to wonder if you're sniffing down the wrong trail.
So here we go.
What needs to be determined first is what the goals of the EA will actually be. This is simple. 1) Visit the psychologist 2) Do some serious mafia hunting. You want town cred and you're not afraid of getting hit for being correct.
A lot of Jackal's posts are solid. He's really good at not giving anything away without making it obvious. I'll just go with the posts that stand out to me.
On August 25 2011 08:10 Jackal58 wrote: My apologies for my absence. It was a brutal day at work today. The fuckers broke everything.
I have only read this page and will get caught up shortly but I do have a question for the Ferryman. You state rightly so that we are here to lynch scum. Yet you are obsessed with the EH. Why? I understand he's 3rd party. I understand he's anti town. I also understand that he won't kill anybody barring a chance encounter with the psych. Scum are most certainly going to begin killing us. Fuck the EH for now. We have bigger fish to fry. Of course I might be all wrong as I have just read this page atm and if so I'll be more than happy to stfu after I get caught up. I'll post my thoughts in a bit. I also have to catch up on XLIX.
While this is a reasonable post, it has some strange motivations behind it. He would really like Ferryman to quit searching so hard for the EA, because apparently scum are more important. Let's see how that would work out. 3 scum, takes us 3 days to lynch. 3 kills by that point, 3 lynches, and possibility of psych dying due to EA.
That brings us down to
2 insane townies 3 sane townies 1 EA
Assuming we lynched mafia every day from day 1, this is a worst case scenario, with the EA visiting the psych and two townies who survived. This doesn't look too good to me.
Whereas if we lynch the EA, we skip a night phase and get 2 lynches in a row...looks good to me. Jackal isn't one to miss something like this. EA and mafia are equal priority, and his wanting to take out mafia over EA doesn't look too good.
On August 25 2011 08:46 Jackal58 wrote: If anybody ever accuses me of tunneling again I'm going to bitch slap them. Ferryman we get it. You think Wiggles is the EH. You may very well be right. Guess what? Right now I don't care about the EH. But you sure as hell do. You are either the psych or scum. I know you have a very good grasp on how this game works. You are also on the opposite end of the brilliance spectrum from Cyber_cheese. Put your efforts into something other than tunneling your EH suspect. Please. I'm filtering all of you from most to least interesting so I'm going to be a while.
Again, he's pushing Ferryman away from hunting the EA. Something I would really like to point out is this
On August 25 2011 08:46 Jackal58 wrote: You are either the psych or scum.
No possibility of him being the EA. What better cover would there be for an EA than hunting for their own role? Not for a moment does Jackal consider this possibility. In games I've played previously I've been about to hit submit and then realized I made a slip like this. I consider this to be a slip revealing that he's the EA.
On August 28 2011 10:06 Navillus wrote: Also the writing is weird and looks forced, but... Jackal how on earth did you notice that???
Because the writing was forced and weird.
Ehhh, more specifics what made you look closely, what did you notice first, how did you see it?
I spent almost 3 hours looking at every post in this game for breadcrumbs. I wasn't looking at anything of Jee Jee's in particular. I saw the U Mad first. And then found the rest. I found one other post that may contain a breadcrumb but I'm not positive it is. At any rate I am not going to share that post, or user, or what he may be claiming. Y'all can go find it yourselves.
I've already gone over this stuff, but I'll mention it briefly again.
3 hours looking for breadcrumbs? Jackal's hunting the psych, which you'll remember is priority #1 of the EA.
On August 31 2011 01:33 Jackal58 wrote: If I were EA Chaos The Ferryman would not have been sane. I considered him to be high on the list of probable Psychs. Were I EA he would have been my night one visit. If I were scum Chaos you would be dead today and not the Ferryman. So unless you are either A) The EA or B) Scum please kindly start looking for realsies instead of insisting I am something I'm not. Of course if you are either scum or EA please continue to tunnel me.
And then this.
Sorry for wasting so much time yesterday. Let the discussion begin.
On the Ferryman I simply wanted him to stop tunneling. At the point I made that first post you quoted we were all well aware of what he thought of Wiggles and adding more of the same just gave us all another 20 paragraphs on "NO U" to read. That's it. No ulterior motivation. And yes he came across to me as either Psych or scum. Not the EA. And if I truly was the EA Ferryman would not have been sane when scum hit him. I would have visited him. The EA isn't posting in this game. It's either Eiii or Erandorr. One is scum the other is 3rd party. And I really was killing time when I went through all the posts in this game looking for breadcrumbs. No ulterior motive there either.
On August 31 2011 23:25 tnkted wrote: Player List 1. Mr. Wiggles 2. Cyber_Cheese 3. Sevryn 4. TheFerryman 5. chaos13 6. Palmar 7. Navillus 8. Eiii 9. JeeJee 10. Jackal58 11. Forumite 12. Erandorr 13. tnkted
These are my reads. So, before we start getting off track here, ##vote: sevryn like we should have been doing earlier.
I'm getting red vibe off forumite. If you read his post history it's all soft FoS's that he doesn't really follow through on.
I don't think chaos13 is scum, I just think he doesn't read very closely and gets too excited about his 'scumtells' that don't actually mean anything.
That being said, Chaos, you aren't reacting properly to pressure at all. I think you're town, but if you keep acting batshit insane whenever people don't agree with you, I'm changing my vote to follow wiggles.
EVERY VOTE SEVRYN NAO
Is Sevryn still alive? Is Sevryn blue? Wtf does PRODDED mean????????
General consensus seems to be that I'm wasting time. So be it. Jackal is no longer a suspect. I'll start looking elsewhere.
Wait, what? So, you think Jackal is scum, most likely EA, but because other people don't agree (before you've even posted an actual analysis), you just drop it?
The point of analysis is to convince people to agree with you, and show them your reasoning for your reads. Even if you made an analysis, and came to the conclusion that Jackal is actually town, that's still useful for town.
Dropping your suspicion so easily because people don't initially agree with your read, and without even trying to convince them, just makes it seem like you thought your case was weak to begin with, meaning you were just looking to start a bandwagon on someone.
##Vote: Chaos13
I was frustrated yesterday. I've since gotten over it. If you really want to vote for me, tell me what mafia objectives I have been pushing this game. What does a mafioso have to gain by making such an outspoken accusation against Jackal, then backing off, and then continuing again? You can see from my games as scum that I like to lurk and lay low. Real analysis won't come from me for a few days, and then it will only be a result of becoming a major town suspect for not contributing. Show me how all my posts represent a mafia agenda. Pressure me today. Ask me questions and decide if my responses are still scummy. Address my analysis on Jackal and see what you think of it.
Cyber_Cheese, where are you? You voted for me and left. Not very town-like.
I think it just means he wasnt posting enough so our noble mod cuffed him over the head with his banhammer. Not enough to cause any damage, but enough that sevryn knows that if he doesn't get his ass in gear he's gonna be banwhammied.
On the Ferryman I simply wanted him to stop tunneling. At the point I made that first post you quoted we were all well aware of what he thought of Wiggles and adding more of the same just gave us all another 20 paragraphs on "NO U" to read. That's it. No ulterior motivation. And yes he came across to me as either Psych or scum. Not the EA. And if I truly was the EA Ferryman would not have been sane when scum hit him. I would have visited him. The EA isn't posting in this game. It's either Eiii or Erandorr. One is scum the other is 3rd party. And I really was killing time when I went through all the posts in this game looking for breadcrumbs. No ulterior motive there either.
And wtf does "Sevryn was prodded" mean?
Yeah I'm not gonna be voting for you today. Too much assumption on my part for it to be a proper vote. I'm guessing it means he was PM'ed to post so he doesn't get modkilled for inactivity.
Speaking of sevryn, I don't know that he's a good lynch today. The only thing he's got going for him as mafia is JeeJee talking with him a lot, but that doesn't mean he's scum. I'll go ahead and filter/analyze him this morning before I head to work and see what I can find. Jackal if you're so sure of Eiii and Erandorr start putting some evidence behind your accusations. Are you still suspicious of tnkted?
On August 24 2011 05:38 TheFerryman wrote: Ladies and Gentelmen. The Eldricht horror has just successfully ousted himself. Well done wiggles.
Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is the horror afraid of? Two things, 1.) the lynch, as it kills him and makes him incapable of winning, and conversely town losing too fast, since then he won't be able to infect everyone in time. This means that the horror is going to try to present an organized, pro-town stance and appearance, so expect things like long policy/mechanics posts and attempts at directing town attention early in the game, and later focus on scumhunting, probably successfully getting scum lynched. He obviously wants to draw scum hits, since they increase the number of insane people in the town. All this means he is going to try to *appear* town, while pushing to resolve his fear #2
2.) The psychologist, as every night the psychologist is alive the horror's wincondition becomes a little harder to carry out. For this reason expect plans that involve the psychologist claiming, and plans that require mass claims. Remember the sooner the psychologist is dead, the sooner the horror can carry out his wincondition.
With that in mind, lets take a good look at Wiggles first post of the game. My comments in spoilers inside the quote
On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote: ##Vote: Eiii Where you at?
Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity.
Right here, he is already downplaying the danger the horror poses to the town, I'm betting that if he is ousted later in the game he'll try explain how lynching the horror is a "waste of a lynch" when we could be hitting "real scum". Also, notice how he is *already* taking about the psychologist. Its the number one thing on his mind. He couldn't even get past the first paragraph without worrying about it
So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well)
Look at this magnificent plan to get his hands on the psychologist, for a 1/13 chance of losing outright he gets to kill his #1 threat to victory. Plus, he is going to be so "pro-town" the worrying about the psychologist checking *him* won't be an issue. Look at point 1 and 2 above, here is wiggles, promoting a plan that reveals the psychologist yet appears pro-town. this is the giveaway that wiggles has only one focus. Notice how the mafia is only mentioned in passing and the medic isn't even a concern. Its because to wiggles those things aren't important, in his mind those take second place to the much more relevant psychologist that stands in his way, and of course to appearing town
There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as.
Pros:
-Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary)
Cons:
-Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target.
Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is.
and now he is backtracking, while still pushing for the psychologist to "breadcrumb", which wiggles, our mega clue master will be able to catch. Notice how he isn't even supporting his own plan, its a "point of discussion". In other words, he is hoping a foolish townie is going to pick it up and run with it, or even better a stupid psychologist is going to think "huh, this isn't bad, I better do as wiggles suggested". A real townie, someone who cares about whether the town loses or wins is not going to propose what he considers a bad plan, especially not a veteran player like wiggles, who knows that as a rule of thumb, towns are stupid and tend to subscribe to bad ideas. BY proposing a poor idea as a "point of discussion" wiggles is pushing all the objectives of a smart horror.
This is a strong case for wiggles being the horror. I think that we should focus on the mafia first and the horror second. because our win condition is all threats to the town are eliminated while the scum is just to be equal to the town aligned players which means we are essentially 9v3. mafia has one kp so assuming worst case scenario we lose 2 per day/night cycle so 7v3 second day 5v3 third day. If we reach the case of 5v3 i propose we make it go to a no lynch so that after the mafia kill someone it will be 4v3 instead of instead of a 5v3. I think we should do these in all cases such as 4v2 make it a 3v2 and 1 v 3 make it a 1v2.
If we find a good mafia target for a day one lynch i will vote for the mafia because if it gets to where we would abstain for voting for a more town favored lylo we can lynch the horror instead or just save the horror for a day we don't have a good mafia suspect(that could be today but it is still too soon to tell) ##vote Mr. Wiggles I will change my vote if we find a good mafia to lynch
Reading this over first I went WTF SCUM. Then I thought about it. Everything sevryn says here is based in thought that benefits town. His proposal of a no-lynch near the end game actually benefits us, because it gives us a much higher chance of actually hitting scum, and gives us the final play rather than mafia. This is probably the only scenario in which I would feel a no-lynch is pro-town, and sevryn gets green cred from me for suggesting it. He also explains why he feels mafia are a better first target than EA. (Now I understand your thought process Jackal)
On August 29 2011 00:28 Sevryn wrote:
i Just woke up and have not read the last page of the thread if you look over the thread you will notice that everything that "links" me to jeejee and tnkted. are all posts made by someone else. moreover the subtle disconnects attack on me was an incredibly weak attack. the fact that I didn't defend myself or try to distance myself from tnkted all shows something IMO. of course tnkted did almost get lynched first day which is why you think he is scum besides the fact that palmar died night one. which is weird when you consider he was pretty sure that tnkted was townie. when we lynched jeejee if he flips red if there is no better case we could lynch tnkted but your case against me seems to be long and well thought out but it relies on both tnkted and jeejee being scum.
This post is also true. My entire attack on him was based on things that JeeJee said, not things that sevryn said. I believe he also states a suspicion of tnkted, but that could just be a misunderstanding on my part.
Summary sevryn has pro-town interests and is not mafia. Slight chance of EA, but not likely.
On August 31 2011 23:25 tnkted wrote: I'm getting red vibe off forumite. If you read his post history it's all soft FoS's that he doesn't really follow through on.
Are you saying that you don´t like the way I play, or that I´m playing like a scum in this game? Because I´ve been accused of being scum because of weak FoS many times.
What do people think about Navilius? And no, it´s not a FoS, I just don´t have a good read on him.
On August 31 2011 23:25 tnkted wrote: I'm getting red vibe off forumite. If you read his post history it's all soft FoS's that he doesn't really follow through on.
Are you saying that you don´t like the way I play, or that I´m playing like a scum in this game? Because I´ve been accused of being scum because of weak FoS many times.
What do people think about Navilius? And no, it´s not a FoS, I just don´t have a good read on him.
Navillus started strong and has also gone into what appears to be lurk mode.
Hey guys sorry I have been away a couple days had a ton of irl shit come up. I should be alright now. and will be reading the thread. Read the day/night posts Ferryman you have the makings of amazing town if this was your first game. I think we need to look back at his case on wiggles and then look at wiggles again. going back and reading the thread now.
Postchecking lurkers. I´m getting green reads on all of Eiii, Erandorr and Sevryn. I want them to post more, Erandorr says he will soon, but I don´t want to lynch any of them. I´d rather take a good look at Wiggles and tnkted, it still doesn´t add up that neither was lynched during day 1. I can understand that it was even until the extension, but afterwards it wouldn´t have taken much for scum to sneak in one or two votes on either candidate. Palmar, Navillus and Me were asking for people to stay away from the weak candidates, it would have been easy for a scum to join in and get a Townie lynch going.
General consensus seems to be that I'm wasting time. So be it. Jackal is no longer a suspect. I'll start looking elsewhere.
Wait, what? So, you think Jackal is scum, most likely EA, but because other people don't agree (before you've even posted an actual analysis), you just drop it?
The point of analysis is to convince people to agree with you, and show them your reasoning for your reads. Even if you made an analysis, and came to the conclusion that Jackal is actually town, that's still useful for town.
Dropping your suspicion so easily because people don't initially agree with your read, and without even trying to convince them, just makes it seem like you thought your case was weak to begin with, meaning you were just looking to start a bandwagon on someone.
##Vote: Chaos13
This is the only recent post(last couple of days) made by wiggles that does not mention the EA This can mean pretty much anything but I would like to ask wiggles to focus more on scum hunting. however he does raise a good point on chaos I'll look at him soon. but first he lurkers
just looked at Erandorr's post this guy is like all one liners and there is nothing to analyze if he doesnt start posting soon i think we should lynch him. he is doing a good job of hiding in one liners.
On August 31 2011 23:25 tnkted wrote: Player List 1. Mr. Wiggles 2. Cyber_Cheese 3. Sevryn 4. TheFerryman 5. chaos13 6. Palmar 7. Navillus 8. Eiii 9. JeeJee 10. Jackal58 11. Forumite 12. Erandorr 13. tnkted
These are my reads. So, before we start getting off track here, ##vote: sevryn like we should have been doing earlier.
I'm getting red vibe off forumite. If you read his post history it's all soft FoS's that he doesn't really follow through on.
I don't think chaos13 is scum, I just think he doesn't read very closely and gets too excited about his 'scumtells' that don't actually mean anything.
That being said, Chaos, you aren't reacting properly to pressure at all. I think you're town, but if you keep acting batshit insane whenever people don't agree with you, I'm changing my vote to follow wiggles.
EVERY VOTE SEVRYN NAO
Okay so you make a post and declaring me the scummiest person. and saying "like we should have been doing earlier" but there is no case on me and you sure as hell didnt make one here. infact you just make two lines that are relevant to me and then ask everyone to vote for me without trying to convince anyone. this is the shittiest start to a bandwagon ever.
I think tnkted was refering to his post below, made just after JeeJee´s scumslip was found.
On August 28 2011 03:08 tnkted wrote: actually the C in Scum doesn't follow a period, but otherwise the message says
'im scum u mad'
Reading Jee Jee's posts reveals he's replied to/agreed with/been focused on sevryn faaaar more than anyone else, so perhaps sevryn is our lynch tomorrow.
On August 28 2011 03:08 tnkted wrote: actually the C in Scum doesn't follow a period, but otherwise the message says
'im scum u mad'
Reading Jee Jee's posts reveals he's replied to/agreed with/been focused on sevryn faaaar more than anyone else, so perhaps sevryn is our lynch tomorrow.
Also town needs to start talking asap.
ahhh thanks. Well that just goes back to my previous point about any connection between jeejee and me was all him and not me.
I´ve been doing voting analysis, and one thing looks weird, JeeJee, confirmed Scum, didn´t buss at all, he put his vote on Cyber_Cheese, and left it there even after the others abandoned trying to lynch Cyber.
On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Psychologist visit Jackal.
If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13.
I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?
Show me your reasoning. And whoever the Psych is feel free to visit me. You'll be safe and sane in the morning. Stay away from Erandorr and Eiii though. Eiii doesn't normally lurk. I have no idea who Erandorr is though or how he plays. In 3, 2, 1........
HEEY .. Too late? (this is me catching up with the thread) I will actually participate today (promise!)
General consensus seems to be that I'm wasting time. So be it. Jackal is no longer a suspect. I'll start looking elsewhere.
Wait, what? So, you think Jackal is scum, most likely EA, but because other people don't agree (before you've even posted an actual analysis), you just drop it?
The point of analysis is to convince people to agree with you, and show them your reasoning for your reads. Even if you made an analysis, and came to the conclusion that Jackal is actually town, that's still useful for town.
Dropping your suspicion so easily because people don't initially agree with your read, and without even trying to convince them, just makes it seem like you thought your case was weak to begin with, meaning you were just looking to start a bandwagon on someone.
##Vote: Chaos13
I was frustrated yesterday. I've since gotten over it. If you really want to vote for me, tell me what mafia objectives I have been pushing this game. What does a mafioso have to gain by making such an outspoken accusation against Jackal, then backing off, and then continuing again? You can see from my games as scum that I like to lurk and lay low. Real analysis won't come from me for a few days, and then it will only be a result of becoming a major town suspect for not contributing. Show me how all my posts represent a mafia agenda. Pressure me today. Ask me questions and decide if my responses are still scummy. Address my analysis on Jackal and see what you think of it.
Cyber_Cheese, where are you? You voted for me and left. Not very town-like.
Well, your response seemed very odd to me, at least. You say yourself, "Ask me questions and decide if my responses are still scummy.", so I ask, "What are your reasoning for Jackal being the EA?". You respond to this, by promising me and the rest of town a future analysis of Jackal.
Then, shortly thereafter, you go back on your suspicions, and say, "General consensus seems to be that I'm wasting time. So be it. Jackal is no longer a suspect. I'll start looking elsewhere."
This sticks out like a sore thumb. Until recently, you had an absolute conviction that Jackal was the EA, even to the point of asking the Psychologist to not visit him, because you believed he would die if he visited Jackal. So, I ask you for reasons about why you think he's EA, and you say you'll tell me later. Then, later, instead of telling me you reasoning, you just give up on your case. Now, this wouldn't be too unusual, if for example, you had said something along the lines of, "I looked back through Jackal's posts, and after re-reading, I believe him to be town", but instead you entirely gave up your case, because the rest of town wasn't supporting you without reasons.
This looks scummy to me, because it seems like you mostly wanted to attack Jackal for finding out JeeJee, but when asked for other reasons for why he's the EA, you quickly go back on your accusations, using the lame excuse of "General consensus seems to be that I'm wasting time.". It shouldn't matter to a townie if he's being controversial, or going against majority opinion when he thinks someone's scum. It's his job to convince the rest of town that that person is scum, not just roll over and give up. By laying the blame on the rest of town not supporting you, you escape responsibility for not actually following through and posting an analysis. In fact, I doubt you would have actually posted the Jackal analysis if I hadn't pressured you to do so. This seems reinforced by the fact that you said you were writing an analysis on Jackal and that it should be done within an hour or two, but then after giving up, you don't actually post anything until 12 hours later, implying that you had no analysis started in the first place, and weren't planning on writing one either.
So, after you actually post the analysis, you say the following
Let me preface this by saying I am no longer at all sure that Jackal is EA. There's evidence for it, but when the whole town starts questioning you there comes a point where you begin to wonder if you're sniffing down the wrong trail.
So, what is it? Is Jackal the EA because of the evidence for it? Or do you think he's not the EA because people don't agree with you? Evidence is objective, and the town's opinion doesn't influence it. Again you go back on what you were saying, shrugging off any responsibility you might have had if a mislynch happens, but still being able to post an analysis to satisfy the people asking you for one.
So, do you believe Jackal is the EA or not? I also want your opinion, not what you think because of what town thinks.
On September 01 2011 02:18 Forumite wrote: I´ve been doing voting analysis, and one thing looks weird, JeeJee, confirmed Scum, didn´t buss at all, he put his vote on Cyber_Cheese, and left it there even after the others abandoned trying to lynch Cyber.
Do you mean bandwagoning? We don't know if he was bussing or not, because we don't know who his team mates are. Or maybe you do?
Due to Host/Co-Host also being human beings we may be missing for the end of day 3. We are doing our best to resolve this. I'm letting you know there's a possibility that today will be extended free of charge. I will keep you up to date as I know more.
On September 01 2011 02:42 Jackal58 wrote: Cyber a scum buddy?
My suspicion is that JeeJee was trying to lynch Cyber, but when people dropped off, then either he didn´t want to do anything in case he made himself a target, or he didn´t want to tip the lynch on one of the others.
On September 01 2011 02:18 Forumite wrote: I´ve been doing voting analysis, and one thing looks weird, JeeJee, confirmed Scum, didn´t buss at all, he put his vote on Cyber_Cheese, and left it there even after the others abandoned trying to lynch Cyber.
Do you mean bandwagoning? We don't know if he was bussing or not, because we don't know who his team mates are. Or maybe you do?
Well, yes, a bandwagon. He jumped on when the bandwagon was going on against Cyber, 4 players voted on Cyber in a row, among them JeeJee, but once they dropped off, he didn´t join the votetrains on tnkted and Palmar, and later Wiggles. Palmar has flipped, and he was never a prime target for the lynch, but JeeJee could have gotten you or tnkted lynched, if he had wanted to, you were both 1 vote away from a lynch. You and tnkted acted the same way, wasting your votes on players that would never get lynched. tnkted voted on Palmar and Cyber, you voted on Eiii and Palmar.
That makes me think JeeJee, Mr. Wiggles and tnkted are the scumteam.
This post of JeeJee doesn´t help. (emphasis mine) + Show Spoiler +
On August 28 2011 02:50 Jackal58 wrote: Coag is my son Twinkles. He just made it to Ga. He's on his way to Fl. Naked Tuesdays are now back in vogue.
Palmar once again I am guilty of looking at you with a jaundiced eye. Sorry man.
Day ones poopfest centering on breadcrumbing made me curious as to who if anybody had.
On August 27 2011 03:33 JeeJee wrote:
indeed, this is an interesting point. making sure that the scenario where ea/psych visit one another is accounted for properly is all we've focused on, but the most likely thing to happen is that neither will visit another. someone's basically not-EA if that happens
checking palmar is the best idea i think. under the assumption that psych decides to follow the plan (i dont see why he wouldnt), i'd be hella more comfortable knowing palmar's not the EA. my other suggestion is wiggles.
ugh, you read my mind. my god, where did the 'horror' come from. and like everyone's saying it too. damn shit annoys me :<
##visit palmar
I could probably do this with every post in this game but each of those letters follow a period. I don't believe in accidents.
surely you're not serious. look hard enough and i'm sure you can find something like this in anyone's posts if they post enough. major fos on both tnkted and wiggles for just jumping on this without thinking it's simply a coincidence.
Fun fact, at the end of the Day 1 lynch, it was JeeJee, Wiggles, tnkted and Cyber that didn´t have their vote on either tnkted or Wiggles, the two most likely candidates.
If you look at the vote count ~4 hours before lynch, there were 5 votes on tnkted, 3 on me, and 3 on palmar.
Either a Palmar or Wiggles lynch were equally valid at that point, it's just that people decided to bandwagon on me, instead of Palmar, for those unvoting tnkted. I was also asleep at that point, so as votes came off of Palmar, I wasn't able to switch to tnkted if I needed too.
However, the day actually ended with three votes on tnkted, and three votes on Palmar, so at what point did tnkted become a "more likely candidate" than Palmar?
On September 01 2011 05:15 Tackster wrote: Important Notice!!!
Due to Host/Co-Host also being human beings we may be missing for the end of day 3. We are doing our best to resolve this. I'm letting you know there's a possibility that today will be extended free of charge. I will keep you up to date as I know more.
Leaving soon. Just wanted to state after thinking that if extension is used, it won't be free. Also when the deadline is reached and there is majority, and none of the mods are available, the game will be suspended (votes locked, I guess you can post) until we return as usual. This means you must still respect the deadline. We will try to prevent such delays as much as possible.
On September 01 2011 06:52 Mr. Wiggles wrote:However, the day actually ended with three votes on tnkted, and three votes on Palmar, so at what point did tnkted become a "more likely candidate" than Palmar?
Nice logic.
Palmar was a less likely candidate because while Wiggles and tnkted got several people voting on them in a row, for Palmar it was much less so. For Palmar, the first vote was from tnkted. Cyber and Eii also voted early, but Cyber and tnkted dropped off. It was very late when tnkted, you Wiggles, and Cyber came back for the final 3 votes. Right before the 3 votes landed on Palmar, 5-6 people voted on tnkted, and after the 3 votes went to Palmar, 5 people voted on Wiggles, almost as if someone tried to redirect the lynch. Palmar was a candidate, but the bandwagons on tnkted and Wiggles were much stronger.
Wiggles, it looks weird, if it´s not you three, then what really happened?
Lack of a voting thread sucks. Other than Ferryman's meta argument against wiggles I don't see much there. His vote on Palmar appears to be in response to Palmar deciding to push a no lynch. I wasn't online when day 1 ended so I don't really have a feel for the timing of it all. I also freely admit that I have a townie bias on Wiggles in every game we play together. Much the same as I always suspect Palmar as being scum. If you can give me something I'm not seeing other than The Ferryman's meta argument I'll consider it. Tnkted has given me the wilbers off and on through this whole game. He has some posts that scream "Scum" at me and others that make me think he's town. I think it is safe to say that either he is scum, 3rd party or a vanilla townie. Tnkted has never gotten a blue role he couldn't wait to claim. Seriously. He claims every game. So ya they could be the remaining scum but other than the voting I don't feel comfy voting for either of them yet. Hell I don't feel comfy voting for anybody yet. I'm still not liking the lurking that Erandorr, Eiii and most recently Navillus have exhibited. It's also a bit odd that Nav and Erindorr used the same excuse. I was in 4 different games when this started. No excuse. Now I'm in 2. Fucking scum. So go ahead and make a case on Wiggles or Tnkted for me Forumite. Cause I don't see anything on Wiggles and most of what I think of Tnkted I've already posted. For now I'm going to put a vote on Eiii. He's lurking. Hardcore. ##Vote: Eiii
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...
What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?
I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.
Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.
Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.
Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.
Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.
I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote: Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted ##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).
I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.
So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.
##Unvote ##Vote Palmar
Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.
##unvote ##vote Mr. Wiggles
If you read, you can see that Palmar did not in fact try to save Tnkted, or at least, he did a very bad job of it. He did not adequately explain how Tnkted is town, and he did not push the idea that Tnkted was town in a convincing way. All he did, was remove the vote from Tnkted, ensuring that one of town's two extensions would be used on the worst possible day for it. He hasn't done anything to reinforce Tnkted's credibility, or to actually defend against the accusations of being scum, he just forced a no-lynch, which is anti-town by itself.
On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote: I wanted to save him from the lynch.
That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?
You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.
I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town.
Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.
Havn't we already established lynching the Eldritch Abomination is pro town? we get an extra day
We do get an extra day, but it is an extra day much better used later into the game. Day 1 lynches are fairly inaccurate, unless scum makes a major mistake (Like I think Palmar did), and trying to kill the EA now just means that town will be launched into Day 1-2, where it will be exactly more of the same as what we've had for the last 48 hours. We get no new information, and no new leads, because Town will want to kill EA for the extra day, but scum will want to kill EA for the town cred, meaning that all scumhunting put into finding the EA is more or less a null tell. Trying to find the EA on day 1, means that he doesn't have to pretend to hunt for actual mafia, and makes it so that the extra lynch is used on the least optimal day, where town has the least leads and information.
I'm town, but it doesn't even matter if you believe me, because:
I'm town, so I want to kill scum If I'm EA, I want to kill mafia to buy town cred If I'm mafia, I want to kill EA on Day 1, as outlined above
So, do you think I'm EA? Then I'm hunting scum. I know I'm town, and I'm trying to convince you of such, but it shouldn't even matter when you read my analysis, because the end goal is going to be the same. Look at it impartially, and forget that it was written by Mr. Wiggles, whom you think is EA, and then tell me what you think.
Okay Ferryman got killed he was making really good cases and I think His case on Wiggles still stands I would ask people to go back and read his case and look at wiggles posting. ##vote Mr.Wiggles
...alright, I haven't posted once today. Not really sure how that happened, but it's my fault and I'm going to fix it.
Unfortunately it looks like we're headed for another extension. The jeejee lynch was unamious, and given the way it was started scum probably felt like he wasn't worth saving, so I really doubt we'll be able to figure out too much by looking at that day's actions. What we do have is the whole day 1 no-lynch fiasco-- one in which immediately following the extension, wiggles added a new lynch candidate into the lynch and stuck with it until the end of the day, even when it was clear that a palmar lynch wouldn't get the support it needed to do anything except siphon votes away from other candidates.
Between his voting behavior at the end of day one and ferryman's extensive writeups on how his posting behavior indicates that he's scum, wiggles is our best lynch for today.
My Internet has been down due to maintenance, so I apologise for the crummy explanation on the vote on chaos, It was a place holder just in case I didn't get a chance to vote later more than anything. I haven't got much time to properly analyse the game at the moment because I'm using a mobile device at a mates at the moment, so I'll move my vote to where it seems most wanted so we don't burn another extension.
My top two candidates right now are tnkted and Mr. Wiggles. The majority of players are going for Wiggles, so in the interest of not having an extension/no-lynch, I will vote for him as well. Although I would prefer to see tnkted lynched today, that is not feasible at the moment.
Mr. Wiggles, Mafia(Sane), was lynched! Erandorr has not voted and will be replaced. Voting list at the time of this post + Show Spoiler +
Mr. Wiggles (7) Forumite Sevryn Navillus Eiii Cyber_Cheese chaos13 Jackal58
chaos13 (1) Mr. Wiggles
Sevryn (1) tnkted
Not voted Erandorr
The deadline is September 2 2011 22:00 KST, which is 13:00 GMT (+00:00); submit night actions to Tackster and me before then. Please note that deadline for tonight is few hours shorter.
Okay, this makes it very likely that tnkted is the last scum, it fits his voting pattern day 1, day 3, FoS from JeeJee, not to mention that the whole case against Wiggles was that both he and tnkted were scum, and that they forced a no-lynch to avoid lynching a co-scum.
Odd, of the players that the Psych was asked to visit, it´s only Jackal and Chaos13 that still live, and Night 2 voting were confused enough that we can´t know who of those two that actually got the visit. Wiggles and JeeJee turned out to be scum and got lynched, so the visit on Wiggles was wasted.
With the switch in player, Erandorr will be even harder to read. I want the Psych to visit him tonight.
Okay, wiggles flip suprised me; I thought he was probably town.
On September 01 2011 23:52 Forumite wrote: Wiggles has defended himself, but tnkted is nowhere to be seen.
I love how you suddenly appeared and started accusing me the second I accused you of being scum after drifting through the game. Trying to redirect direct attention hmm?
As for this:
On September 02 2011 00:02 Forumite wrote: Success!
Okay, this makes it very likely that tnkted is the last scum, it fits his voting pattern day 1, day 3, FoS from JeeJee, not to mention that the whole case against Wiggles was that both he and tnkted were scum, and that they forced a no-lynch to avoid lynching a co-scum.
Lets break this down.
I was very clear as to why I voted Palmar D1. And I was right! Palmar didn't react like a townie at all. He was blue instead. cei la vie.
Day 3 I voted sevryn because I thought JeeJee was preoccupied with him. If you look at JeeJee's posts, theres tons of evidence for this. I stated this but I didn't write up an analysis because chaos13 or someone wrote it up before me.
So I'm not sure what you mean by my voting pattern fits.
Regarding the FOS from JeeJee: What? I don't know what this is, but everyone and their mother has had an FOS on me this game.
Regarding the forced nolynch - If you recall, it was palmar that forced a nolynch, and he flipped doctor. I also remind you that Palmar flipped doctor and insisted before he died that I was town. To be honest, I think it might have been better if I had just been lynched then, since there would be so much less of this 'lets try to understand the mafia plan by analyzing voting patterns' bullshit.
FACT: With good players (which I shamelessly include myself in, as well as wiggles) it is impossble to predict voting patterns. This is because a good mafia designs their votes to DISTINCTLY AVOID voting patterns. Mafia would rather tip the balance in favor of lynching one of their own to gain town cred rather than redirect the lynch and cause suspicion. So trying to connect me and wiggles by saying we voted for different people is a very very bad move.
I thought Sevryn was scum, but the more I think of it, the more I think Forumite might be instead.
Tnkted, in this case it appears that you are part of a voting pattern. Normally there shouldn´t be any, at least not one that is easy to find, but I found something that looked like a pattern, and it lead us to one scum. It also leads to you, which makes me think you are scum too.
The FoS from JeeJee was his way of distancing himself from you two immediately after getting under fire for his breadcrumb. He mentioned you two by names, you were the first two to jump on it, maybe because of just this reason, so you would get some towncred for agreeing with a scum-lynch.
Wow i had wiggles pegged as the psych because of that plan at the start... Which is why i didnt vote him sooner and accused ferryman of ea
On September 02 2011 01:12 Forumite wrote: Tnkted, in this case it appears that you are part of a voting pattern. Normally there shouldn´t be any, at least not one that is easy to find, but I found something that looked like a pattern, and it lead us to one scum. It also leads to you, which makes me think you are scum too.
The FoS from JeeJee was his way of distancing himself from you two immediately after getting under fire for his breadcrumb. He mentioned you two by names, you were the first two to jump on it, maybe because of just this reason, so you would get some towncred for agreeing with a scum-lynch.
If distancing yourself on trial from other scum is scum 101, distancing yourself from an innocent is scum 102 Not saying its likely, just saying the distancing might be fake
JeeJee tried to at least distance himself from Wiggles with that FoS, it could of course be just towards Wiggles and not tnkted, but tnkted happened to be included in that situation too, and the weird voting. If tnkted wasn´t scum, why didn´t Wiggles vote on him at the end of Day 1, it looked much more likely that tnkted would get lynched than palmar, by that time there were about 5 votes on tnkted, and one on Palmar.
On September 02 2011 02:48 tnkted wrote: Because he wasn't online. Go look, he talks about being afk or he would have switched his vote.
You were a more likely lynch than Palmar BEFORE Wiggles went offline. What happened during the last few hours were people moving to wiggles from you. If Wiggles had wanted to keep himself alive, then his vote should have gone on you, he voted instead on Palmar which makes me think he didn´t want you to get lynched either.
On September 02 2011 00:23 Forumite wrote: Mr. Wiggles - visit? Cyber_Cheese Sevryn TheFerryman chaos13 - visit? Palmar Navillus Eiii JeeJee - visit? Jackal58 - visit? Forumite Erandorr tnkted
Odd, of the players that the Psych was asked to visit, it´s only Jackal and Chaos13 that still live, and Night 2 voting were confused enough that we can´t know who of those two that actually got the visit. Wiggles and JeeJee turned out to be scum and got lynched, so the visit on Wiggles was wasted.
With the switch in player, Erandorr will be even harder to read. I want the Psych to visit him tonight.
##Visit Erandorr
Erandorr is being replaced for not voting. He's not being modkilled, he's being replaced. I think that says something about what Erandorr is.
On September 02 2011 00:23 Forumite wrote: Mr. Wiggles - visit? Cyber_Cheese Sevryn TheFerryman chaos13 - visit? Palmar Navillus Eiii JeeJee - visit? Jackal58 - visit? Forumite Erandorr tnkted
Odd, of the players that the Psych was asked to visit, it´s only Jackal and Chaos13 that still live, and Night 2 voting were confused enough that we can´t know who of those two that actually got the visit. Wiggles and JeeJee turned out to be scum and got lynched, so the visit on Wiggles was wasted.
With the switch in player, Erandorr will be even harder to read. I want the Psych to visit him tonight.
##Visit Erandorr
Erandorr is being replaced for not voting. He's not being modkilled, he's being replaced. I think that says something about what Erandorr is.
I'm reading the OP, and it says mod killed people within a time frame will be replaced, but never specifies a time frame specifically if I'm not mistaken. I don't think we can actually act on this with any definite measure. I do however think we should lynch whoever takes over Erandorr, because it will be very hard to get an accurate read on a new person in Erandorr's shoes.
On September 02 2011 00:23 Forumite wrote: Mr. Wiggles - visit? Cyber_Cheese Sevryn TheFerryman chaos13 - visit? Palmar Navillus Eiii JeeJee - visit? Jackal58 - visit? Forumite Erandorr tnkted
Odd, of the players that the Psych was asked to visit, it´s only Jackal and Chaos13 that still live, and Night 2 voting were confused enough that we can´t know who of those two that actually got the visit. Wiggles and JeeJee turned out to be scum and got lynched, so the visit on Wiggles was wasted.
With the switch in player, Erandorr will be even harder to read. I want the Psych to visit him tonight.
##Visit Erandorr
Erandorr is being replaced for not voting. He's not being modkilled, he's being replaced. I think that says something about what Erandorr is.
I'm reading the OP, and it says mod killed people within a time frame will be replaced, but never specifies a time frame specifically if I'm not mistaken. I don't think we can actually act on this with any definite measure. I do however think we should lynch whoever takes over Erandorr, because it will be very hard to get an accurate read on a new person in Erandorr's shoes.
Ya careful with that. Erandorr may well be the Psych.
On September 02 2011 05:32 Hesmyrr wrote: Erandorr is replaced by Kurumi.
Hmmm... -_-
Welcome to the game Kurumi, if that´s your Real name.
As for Erandorr/Kurumis role, I don´t think we can draw a conclusion from if a player is modkilled or replaced. However, the late introduction is a problem when we want a read on him. Erandorr joined in late to lynch Wiggles, and helped to bring the votes on him to 6, dangerously close, from that we can assume he´s not Scum, but I don´t know besides that.
I believe Tnkted to be the final scum and Eiii or Erandorr/Kurumi to be EA and Psych. 4 People have died and all 4 have been sane. That makes me think the EA has been inactive. Errandor more so than Eiii. I think we are at a point in the game where it is beneficial to attempt to lynch the EA. If we succeed we have put ourselves into a situation where we now go straight into a second day and we can get the final scum and end this.
At this point I say the psych should STOP visiting who they think the EA is. Why? Because all players that have flipped so far are sane. That means there is a very high number of insane players and the EA is close to winning. Instead, visit who you did the first night (assuming they're still alive). If the EA has any degree of intelligence they will have visited this person the night after, because they're pretty much guaranteed a safe insanity. Comprende?
On September 02 2011 10:06 chaos13 wrote: At this point I say the psych should STOP visiting who they think the EA is. Why? Because all players that have flipped so far are sane. That means there is a very high number of insane players and the EA is close to winning. Instead, visit who you did the first night (assuming they're still alive). If the EA has any degree of intelligence they will have visited this person the night after, because they're pretty much guaranteed a safe insanity. Comprende?
Thats a silly assumption. what if the psych has managed to cure the right people so far?
On September 02 2011 10:06 chaos13 wrote: At this point I say the psych should STOP visiting who they think the EA is. Why? Because all players that have flipped so far are sane. That means there is a very high number of insane players and the EA is close to winning. Instead, visit who you did the first night (assuming they're still alive). If the EA has any degree of intelligence they will have visited this person the night after, because they're pretty much guaranteed a safe insanity. Comprende?
EA needs every living person to be insane, if the psych visits EA there is still 7 people alive assuming worst case scenario and a maximum of 6 will be insane, but if you use one of those values you have to subtract1 from the other because it assumes who the mafia visit
On September 02 2011 11:26 Cyber_Cheese wrote: EA needs every living person to be insane, if the psych visits EA there is still 7 people alive assuming worst case scenario and a maximum of 6 will be insane, but if you use one of those values you have to subtract1 from the other because it assumes who the mafia visit
On September 02 2011 11:26 Cyber_Cheese wrote: EA needs every living person to be insane, if the psych visits EA there is still 7 people alive assuming worst case scenario and a maximum of 6 will be insane, but if you use one of those values you have to subtract1 from the other because it assumes who the mafia visit
##Visit Kurumi
If Kurumi's psych, then
##Visit Eiii
Psssttt. It's night time.
I know, we've been doing visit votes for the psychs at night time.
On September 02 2011 08:04 Jackal58 wrote: 4 People have died and all 4 have been sane. That makes me think the EA has been inactive
I don't understand this logic. It's pointless to assume that, because all the deaths so far have been sane, that the EA hasn't been sending in night actions. So trying to use that justification to show that the EA is a lurker when you could just point out that EA's best chance at winning is to fly under the radar for as long as possible seems just as pointless.
On September 02 2011 08:04 Jackal58 wrote: 4 People have died and all 4 have been sane. That makes me think the EA has been inactive
I don't understand this logic. It's pointless to assume that, because all the deaths so far have been sane, that the EA hasn't been sending in night actions. So trying to use that justification to show that the EA is a lurker when you could just point out that EA's best chance at winning is to fly under the radar for as long as possible seems just as pointless.
It's almost like he's trying to downplay the EA's threat level
The fact that all 4 were sane is actually really worrying its helping the EA for us to kill people he hasn't made insane yet, I think we need to start working on finding the EA now even before the mafia are all gone and assume that the psych won't get him for us.
Well that wasn't entirely unexpected Someone insane had to die some time Chaos seems like an odd choice I checked the Chaos filter, I'm leaning towards the idea that tnkted killed him, either him or Jackal, based solely off accusations Chaos made before he died.
On September 02 2011 08:04 Jackal58 wrote: 4 People have died and all 4 have been sane. That makes me think the EA has been inactive
I don't understand this logic. It's pointless to assume that, because all the deaths so far have been sane, that the EA hasn't been sending in night actions. So trying to use that justification to show that the EA is a lurker when you could just point out that EA's best chance at winning is to fly under the radar for as long as possible seems just as pointless.
It's almost like he's trying to downplay the EA's threat level
I don't think so.
On September 02 2011 08:04 Jackal58 wrote: I believe Tnkted to be the final scum and Eiii or Erandorr/Kurumi to be EA and Psych. 4 People have died and all 4 have been sane. That makes me think the EA has been inactive. Errandor more so than Eiii. I think we are at a point in the game where it is beneficial to attempt to lynch the EA. If we succeed we have put ourselves into a situation where we now go straight into a second day and we can get the final scum and end this.
On September 03 2011 10:12 Forumite wrote: The thread has slowed down.
With 8 players left, we need 5 votes to get a lynch. We were slow with getting the voting going yesterday, so going right ahead now.
##Vote tnkted
Tnkted is most likely the remaining scum. I think our vote today should go on the most likely EA candidate don't you?
Either anti-Town role is equally dangerous,lynching either one is fine, as long as there´s a good candidate, so we reduce the risk of a mislynch or no-lynch. We have a scum candidate, but I haven´t heard a case against a likely EA candidate. Who did you have in mind?
On September 03 2011 10:12 Forumite wrote: The thread has slowed down.
With 8 players left, we need 5 votes to get a lynch. We were slow with getting the voting going yesterday, so going right ahead now.
##Vote tnkted
Tnkted is most likely the remaining scum. I think our vote today should go on the most likely EA candidate don't you?
Either anti-Town role is equally dangerous,lynching either one is fine, as long as there´s a good candidate, so we reduce the risk of a mislynch or no-lynch. We have a scum candidate, but I haven´t heard a case against a likely EA candidate. Who did you have in mind?
Sevryn smells EA to me so far. Let me read more of the thread (yes I was lazy sorry for that) I just filtered low-post count posters so far
I'm not scum, but go ahead and lynch me anyway, it should clear the air a bit. I think sevryn or forumite are scum. Lynch sevryn first, forumite second.
On September 03 2011 23:26 tnkted wrote: I'm not scum, but go ahead and lynch me anyway, it should clear the air a bit. I think sevryn or forumite are scum. Lynch sevryn first, forumite second.
On September 03 2011 10:12 Forumite wrote: The thread has slowed down.
With 8 players left, we need 5 votes to get a lynch. We were slow with getting the voting going yesterday, so going right ahead now.
##Vote tnkted
Tnkted is most likely the remaining scum. I think our vote today should go on the most likely EA candidate don't you?
Either anti-Town role is equally dangerous,lynching either one is fine, as long as there´s a good candidate, so we reduce the risk of a mislynch or no-lynch. We have a scum candidate, but I haven´t heard a case against a likely EA candidate. Who did you have in mind?
Sevryn smells EA to me so far. Let me read more of the thread (yes I was lazy sorry for that) I just filtered low-post count posters so far
If you think I am scum/EA please go back and read the thread and make a case. I cant defend myself if I dont know why you think I am scummy/ea I am reading tnkted to see the case against him
I don't love the case against tnkted but accepting death has always been a scum thing when I've seen it so I'm going to look over him more carefully, and Jackal with 1 scum left there's no reason not to lynch scum we get a free day.
On September 04 2011 02:30 Navillus wrote: I don't love the case against tnkted but accepting death has always been a scum thing when I've seen it so I'm going to look over him more carefully, and Jackal with 1 scum left there's no reason not to lynch scum we get a free day.
Okay after going over everything I've got a pretty strong town read on tnkted, later I might try to get the specifics and show them but for now
##Vote Kurumi
I just won't be able to get a read on him given his late switch and erandorr's lurking, now Kurumi I would like to know, who are your town reads and less importantly but still who are your scum reads?
tnkted, Townie(Sane), was lynched! Sevryn has not voted and will be replaced. This will be the last replacement to take place in this game.
I also want to announce that I am removing EXTENSION mechanic entirely because I fear it may be encouraging inactivity. Apologizes for all this changes, I now know not to use this idea ever again. Voting list at the time of this post + Show Spoiler +
On September 04 2011 22:53 Forumite wrote: Townie? If tnkted was a Townie, why didn´t he get lynched the first day? Why did he act like a scum and just give up?
Probably because I wasn't acting like a scum, you nit. Anyone can see
... to me....!!!!
GL Town, I'll be watching with palmar from heaven.
On September 04 2011 23:32 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Well it makes sense he was sane, which is a shame because the EA's closer to winning.
for the psych vote tonight I'm thinking
##Visit Sevryn
Or whoever his replacement is anyway.
On September 04 2011 23:36 Kurumi wrote: ##Visit Sevryn I think he is EA. This will make us sure.
No No
Psych needs to revisit whomever he visited before. Odds are they are now insane. Odds are the EA is close to winning. If Psych dies now odds are the EA will definitely win.
On September 04 2011 23:53 wherebugsgo wrote: LOL.
Jackal not dead yet = definitely not a townie.
Also upon reading the first several pages Cyber is either really stupid or really scum/third party.
And no. redFF is that you? Sevryn hasn't said much in this game and as soon as you replace him you immediately call me scum. Y U scum Bugs?
I'm going to wait till the night post arrives to post my first impressions and suspicions. I've finished reading the thread, and I'm going to go and reread the filters of some of my suspects.
The reason I'm waiting till the nightpost is because I don't want my reads to influence the mafia kill.
On September 05 2011 01:30 Forumite wrote: Visiting Sevryn/wherebugsgo sounds good, without a good read, perhaps we can at least eliminate him as a possible EA.
Keeping the psych alive by having him visit people he's already visited and knows are not the EA keeps him alive and keeps you from winning.
On September 05 2011 01:30 Forumite wrote: Visiting Sevryn/wherebugsgo sounds good, without a good read, perhaps we can at least eliminate him as a possible EA.
Keeping the psych alive by having him visit people he's already visited and knows are not the EA keeps him alive and keeps you from winning.
It has a chance of keeping him alive sure, there is no guarantee. If we find and lynch the EA, insane people aren't a problem.
Cyber_Cheese If he is scum/EA he is brilliant. I don't believe he is brilliant. Forumite Other than myself he is the only player remaining that has been actively trying to find scum. [green]Jackal58[/greeen] I know I'm town. Scum/Psych/EA all lie in here: Kurumi Navillus Eiii Erandorr showed that he was actively lurking the thread earlier. Kurumi hasn't posted enough to get a read on. He did try to put suspicion on Sevryn/WBG as EA though.
Navillus - Lurk,lurk, lurk
Eiii - Lurk, lurk, lurk
Of those 3 Navillus was more active and I am getting more of a blue vibe from him. I support an Erandorr/Kurumi or Eiii lynch today.
WBG next time don't wait, give us your thoughts please.
Obviously I won't let lynch myself etc. It is hard to jump in as someone in a game and be a bit disoriented about the game (add that the player I am replacing was hardcore lurking..) Also yay for insane kill.
On August 27 2011 07:27 tnkted wrote: Hi, busy lately with bullshit, ill catch up soon. ##visit Mr. Wiggles, Sorry i couldn't be here to switch my vote
Thanks for not lynching me though, i appreciate it.
palmar that town read of yours... how strong is it?
Asking the person defending Tnkted, who dies that night
On August 29 2011 07:30 Erandorr wrote: oh ##vote jeejee, completely forgot that part. looks like we might get a majority for him after all!
He was among the last to vote on this one
The final thing I would like to bring to note is his constant promises to post a write-up but never actually doing it.
As for his replacement:
On September 02 2011 05:36 Kurumi wrote: Hello I am Kurumi and I am replacing a scummy lurker, I will answer all questions You might have tomorrow after I read the thread.
Note that for someone replacing a scummy lurker, Kurumi hasn't contributed much to convince us otherwise, but he was fourth (5 req) on the Tnkted bandwagon with:
On September 03 2011 20:27 Kurumi wrote: Oh also, I've read the most important parts of the thread so I know tnkted is scum. ##vote: tnkted
##Vote Kurumi
On September 06 2011 02:58 Forumite wrote: Nightkills is not a reliable way of finding scum, it´s mostly WIFOM.
Kurumi, could you tell us what you think about the game so far, and where you think the Scum and EA hide?
Yeah your right, I actually think Kurumi's the EA though and forgot to change up that first Erandorr bit, that point should have been more along the lines of trying to fit in as a townie. If he were mafia, I doubt he would have tried to bus Wiggles quite that hard.
Killing me won't skip the night. I wanted to hear question You might have. I got nothing, so I wrote nothing, ez huh? Oh, besides that stupid question "where will scum go" by forumite lurkers because they're more than half of alive players? duh If Jackal is right about Forumite and Cyber_Cheese Eii is scum and Navillus is EA. Navillus is lurking too btw, he promised to give some "insight" on the situations in the thread (never delivered) was against tnkted lynch aand is for Kurumi lynch. Because Errandor and I were lurking and he is lurking. Lurky lurker suing lurky lurker. See?
After deliberation, I have decided Cyber_Cheese's edit was not malicious in nature and have decided to let this go. I have warned him another mistake will result in a repercussion.
Following are the part that have been included by the edit: + Show Spoiler +
On September 06 2011 02:58 Forumite wrote: Nightkills is not a reliable way of finding scum, it´s mostly WIFOM.
Kurumi, could you tell us what you think about the game so far, and where you think the Scum and EA hide?
Yeah your right, I actually think Kurumi's the EA though and forgot to change up that first Erandorr bit, that point should have been more along the lines of trying to fit in as a townie. If he were mafia, I doubt he would have tried to bus Wiggles quite that hard.
On September 06 2011 00:26 Kurumi wrote: Obviously I won't let lynch myself etc. It is hard to jump in as someone in a game and be a bit disoriented about the game (add that the player I am replacing was hardcore lurking..) Also yay for insane kill.
On September 06 2011 04:40 Kurumi wrote: Killing me won't skip the night. I wanted to hear question You might have. I got nothing, so I wrote nothing, ez huh? Oh, besides that stupid question "where will scum go" by forumite lurkers because they're more than half of alive players? duh If Jackal is right about Forumite and Cyber_Cheese Eii is scum and Navillus is EA. Navillus is lurking too btw, he promised to give some "insight" on the situations in the thread (never delivered) was against tnkted lynch aand is for Kurumi lynch. Because Errandor and I were lurking and he is lurking. Lurky lurker suing lurky lurker. See?
Cyber Cheese - Read both of these very carefully. Put them in context of my post regarding who I believe to be in the lurker pool. Please change your vote accordingly.
First off the statement that EA and scum are definitely among the lurkers is very questionable, obviously given a choice they would be but you can't suddenly realize that you can get away with lurking and become a lurker if you've been talking you won't suddenly stop and frankly I think most people lurk or don't based on personal play-style and IRL situation not a conscious choice half-way through the game ALSO I don't see how what kurumi said couldn't just be him trying to direct suspicion onto eiii and myself since he was part of the group, "yay an insane kill" really? is that all it takes to convince you that someone isn't the EA, okay then YAY AN INSANE KILL (I'm off the hook now right?)
On September 06 2011 11:16 Navillus wrote: First off the statement that EA and scum are definitely among the lurkers is very questionable, obviously given a choice they would be but you can't suddenly realize that you can get away with lurking and become a lurker if you've been talking you won't suddenly stop and frankly I think most people lurk or don't based on personal play-style and IRL situation not a conscious choice half-way through the game ALSO I don't see how what kurumi said couldn't just be him trying to direct suspicion onto eiii and myself since he was part of the group, "yay an insane kill" really? is that all it takes to convince you that someone isn't the EA, okay then YAY AN INSANE KILL (I'm off the hook now right?)
You agree but disagree. It's Kurumi's immediate leap to you and Eiii being EA and scum without regard to either of you being Psych coupled with his Yay comment that makes me believe he is blue not red.
Okay, Jackal, you say Navillus should be lynched, what do you back it up with? Day 1 voting is unsure, he jumped on Wiggles at the end, and appeared to genuinely want him lynched, the late voting doesn´t exclude a scum, but makes it less likely with tnkted as an alternative lynch. As far as I remember, the Psych was never asked to visit Navillus. Overall, that´s not a very strong case. Do you have any posts or evidence apart from this?
Navillus wants to lynch active people and leave lurkers alone. This isn't town agenda, You know that? I know my alignment, I belive Jackal about his alignment, Forumite seems town. Navillus was rarely active, his reasons are not townish (aka fake/bad/seem like policy lynches) and Eiii just "ignored" the game. I think scum will rather go full lurk mode in present situation and wait for things, while 3rd party will try to do everything to call suspicion somewhere else / distract town from themselves and give them more time for their objective.
On September 06 2011 21:44 Forumite wrote: Still 24h left on the day.
Okay, Jackal, you say Navillus should be lynched, what do you back it up with? Day 1 voting is unsure, he jumped on Wiggles at the end, and appeared to genuinely want him lynched, the late voting doesn´t exclude a scum, but makes it less likely with tnkted as an alternative lynch. As far as I remember, the Psych was never asked to visit Navillus. Overall, that´s not a very strong case. Do you have any posts or evidence apart from this?
Go reread his reaction to Jee Jee's lynch. He seemed to be very uncomfy with it. He has gone into lurk mode since. He calls my calling out of lurkers questionable while saying scum/EA will lurk if they have the chance. Of course they have the chance. They just stop posting.
And my bad on the time. I would have swore the day started on Sunday morning. 3 day weekend has screwed me up.
With 6 players left, we need 4 votes to lynch today. Tomorrow, it´s 5 players, and we will still need 4 votes to lynch. We need to be, if not sure, then at least united, if we want to lynch. I had a town-read on Navillus for a long time, but I´ve been wrong before in this game. Navillus doesn´t want to lynch lurkers, but Erandorr is/was a lurker, and an unknown read because of it. Voteanalysis doesn´t help here much either.
Eiii, what do you think? Cyber, what´s your read on Navillus?
I really don't have a good scum or EA suspect at all. Navi's only questionable action recently was immediately jumping on the jeejee vote and then really questioning jackal hardcore about how he saw the crumb, trying to discredit him-- I mean, what does he expect jackal to say, 'I'm psyc/red/EA'? but he keeps pressing after jackal just says that he thinks it was written weird.
I feel that jackal and cyber aren't red, so I'm looking at navi, forumite, and kurumi. Forumite seems to be playing normally, and I can't find anything even remotely malicious in his posts. I'm going to go ahead and make the meta read that a scum wouldn't idle out of the game, either.
so, ##vote Navillus. I'm really not comfortable with how the game is atm, though I admittedly haven't been doing much to turn things around :/
I don't have anything, I'm sooo busy right now and would give up for myself but I refuse to because it would hurt the town, I do see jackal's logic and that's why Vote Eiii I think he can be right without being 100% right and right about both of us, I also ask that you look through my posts before today and see what read you get from those finally I probably won't be on again before the lynch but if I am it looks possible that we could end up 1 vote on me from a lynch (if not this doesn't matter) what I want to know is would you guys rather that I -knowing that I am green- lynch myself to gain information rather than have a no-lynch? At this point I really don't think we want a mislynch but with a no-lynch we could easily end up in the same spot tomorrow and if that really is what everyone thinks is best for town I will do it.
On September 07 2011 07:55 Forumite wrote: With 6 players left, we need 4 votes to lynch today. Tomorrow, it´s 5 players, and we will still need 4 votes to lynch. We need to be, if not sure, then at least united, if we want to lynch. I had a town-read on Navillus for a long time, but I´ve been wrong before in this game. Navillus doesn´t want to lynch lurkers, but Erandorr is/was a lurker, and an unknown read because of it. Voteanalysis doesn´t help here much either.
Eiii, what do you think? Cyber, what´s your read on Navillus?
I have Navillus pegged as a townie too, I really don't think he's EA at the moment. I think Jackal is probably a townie, and out of the remaining three Forumite you are the most likely townie. Eiii has been lurking much more hardcore than I'd like, and Erandorr/Kurumi isn't much better
I see more potential for Eiii to get lynched today, so I'm changing my vote off Kurumi for now.
On August 28 2011 08:28 Eiii wrote: I don't like lynching jeejee for a supposed 'hey guys i'm scum lol' breadcrumb in one of his posts.
I DO like lynching him because he kept his vote on CC and was one of the few who forced a nolynch yesterday.
so let's do this ##vote JeeJee
Note that this was the fifth vote, he didn't vote wiggles the day before
All his votes follow this bandwagoning, and his filter is a single page with most of them more or less equating to fluff.
I think we´re heading for a no-lynch, but perhaps a no-lynch is better than a mislynch. I´ll be online most of the time before the lynch, but just so I don´t forget, I´m voting now. This feels like a very unsafe lynch. Possible EAs, because it´s hard to find EA-tells, but as for scum connections, neither are very strong, and neither are dropping very noticeable anti-Town-tells either, but of Eiii and Navillus, Navillus sound the most nervous when under pressure.
Without a stronger-than-I-have-now argument for navi being scum, there isn't much I can do to deflect a lynch off me. I'd ask people to look at my votes-- I voted jeejee without hesitation, pointing out more scummy things he'd done, and pushed wiggles when it wasn't clear that he was going to be the day's lynch. Especially with only two scum left, I don't think it'd be anywhere close to a smart play for one red to secure the lynch of their only remaining buddy in that situation.
On September 06 2011 22:42 Kurumi wrote: Navillus wants to lynch active people and leave lurkers alone. This isn't town agenda, You know that? I know my alignment, I belive Jackal about his alignment, Forumite seems town. Navillus was rarely active, his reasons are not townish (aka fake/bad/seem like policy lynches) and Eiii just "ignored" the game. I think scum will rather go full lurk mode in present situation and wait for things, while 3rd party will try to do everything to call suspicion somewhere else / distract town from themselves and give them more time for their objective.
Notice how the second half of his post describes the first half? Add to that he hasn't voted yet and it's awfully suspicious.
On September 06 2011 11:16 Navillus wrote: First off the statement that EA and scum are definitely among the lurkers is very questionable, obviously given a choice they would be but you can't suddenly realize that you can get away with lurking and become a lurker if you've been talking you won't suddenly stop and frankly I think most people lurk or don't based on personal play-style and IRL situation not a conscious choice half-way through the game ALSO I don't see how what kurumi said couldn't just be him trying to direct suspicion onto eiii and myself since he was part of the group, "yay an insane kill" really? is that all it takes to convince you that someone isn't the EA, okay then YAY AN INSANE KILL (I'm off the hook now right?)
You agree but disagree. It's Kurumi's immediate leap to you and Eiii being EA and scum without regard to either of you being Psych coupled with his Yay comment that makes me believe he is blue not red.
Shit. We're fucked. Good job Kurumi. Looking at votes I've changed my mind on Cyber. He and Navillus need to die. But I think we're too late.
Everything was at end. How could one ever claim otherwise when there are no more ambiguity left to be resolved? The hope of escape has long been forlorn. Now I simply await the inevitable. At best it will be no more than simple death.
The world is deconstructed. What once resembled a town is now the realm of incomprehensible eldritch being. One by one the earthly souls bound to the place are engulfed by madness, devolving into something gruesome then sacrificed. A sole laughing man, perhaps human only in its skin, dances amidst the chaos, singing the prayer if The One before he too mysteriously vanishes.
With what I have experienced I must express quite a surprise at being able to maintain this detached, observatory attitude. Probably the distancing is my brain's feeble attempt to preserve its sanity. No matter. The salvation draws near. [END OF EXCERPT] One thing must be noted before concluding this tale, critical element that proves how wrong the nameless protagonist is. For, rather justifiably considering how rapidly things went to hell, no one had paused to wonder why the group of professional mafia decided to invade this secret, obscure ruins in the first place. For that we must go back to week ago, in the conference room where these dangerous man discuss their next course of action.
It was mostly an presentation. One of the member had apparently heard rumour of abandoned village, not too close and not too far from the civilization to be perfect base of operations. Others are skeptical but eventually persuaded. That is how they march into their doom. Once again.
The man of science oft state that time is the fourth dimension in this world. Thus intuitively it will not be much of a stretch to realize that the time, seemingly inviolable barrier, is immaterial to the beings of alien dimension. Kind of like how the humanity, just by virtue of living on third dimension, thoughtlessly move in a way that would blow the minds of residents of flatland. The cultist, his true loyalty hidden, are dancing and singing in a paradise and then coaxing his oblivious comrades toward the site of upcoming hecatomb the next. The ceremony, the endless ritual, will go for ever Dr. Mariell and his cohort arrives- and ever he and two mafia sneak into the remnant- and ever haggard drunkard whimpers and kills himself- and ever old women lead mad mob into the mountains-
It is now day one.
Cyber_Cheese, Townie(Insane), were end-gamed. Eiii, Townie(Insane), were end-gamed. Navillus, Townie(Sane), were end-gamed. Jackal58, Mafia(Sane), win along with his partners! Forumite, Eldritch Abomination, win!
With Psychiatrist's death, it is impossible for the town to win anymore on next day (2-1-1) as two anti-town faction know each others identity, and can force a tie to make 1-1-1 situation at the night where all surviving players were insane.
Role List Erandorr/Kurumi: Psychologist Palmar: Doctor
Cyber_Cheese: Town Sevryn/wherebugsgo: Town TheFerryman: Town chaos13: Town Tnkted: Town Navillus: Town Eiii: Town
Mr. Wiggles: Mafia JeeJee: Mafia Jackal58: Mafia
Forumite: Eldritch Abomination Action List NIGHT 1 Erandorr (Psychiatrist) visits JeeJee and receive Sane result. Palmar (Doctor) protects TheFerryman. Jackal58 is elected to kill Palmar. Forumite visits Cyber_Cheese and turn him Insane.
NIGHT 2 Erandorr (Psychiatrist) visits Jackal58 and receive Sane result. Mr. Wiggles is elected to kill TheFerryman. Forumite visits Sevryn and turn him Insane.
NIGHT 3 Kurumi (Psychiatrist) chooses to not visit. Jackal58 tries to kill Forumite and become Insane. Forumite visits chaos13 and turn him Insane. However, chaos13 dies due to Jackal58 NK.
NIGHT 4 Kurumi (Psychiatrist) visits Jackal58 and receive Insane result; he turns Jackal58 back to Sane. Jackal58 kills wherebugsgo. Forumite visits Eiii and turn him Insane.
I think the JeeJee reveal was jackals way of getting loads of towncred, while at the same time making people forget that Wiggles was a target for the Day 1 lynch.
That Psych was elusive, I went around, visiting people I thought wouldn´t get lynched or nightkilled, but still couldn´t find him.
I'm exceedingly frustrated that the town went inactive for the last days after my death, especially after I had pegged 2/3 mafia, the game *should* have been in the bag, but people going afk and just not caring threw that away, I'm genuinely disappointed, it seems like people just didn't care.
Jackal, that was a brilliantly executed bus, remind me to lynch you always, just in case. I'm bookmarking that play for the next time I roll scum.
chaos13, sorry for accusing you wrongly, but something was off about the JeeJee lynch, I thought it was the "redirection" attempt from JeeJee. It turns out it was just an astounding bus.
*blegh*, I was going to write more, but its not like I can give a good critique of "we posted once or twice per day for the last 3 days." You guys threw the game.
Lol, I was reading this game and was like man, jackal is the last mafia. Then I stumbled upon his jeejee breadcrumb and that completely threw me off. Nice job jackal.
The setup was probably slight scum favored, given the fact psychiatrist could die by either visiting EA or getting visited by it, and also because EA and mafia surviving until the end allowed them to force no lynch. I suppose skipping night when EA dies helps a bit, but hunting for EA specifically isn't that easy and mafia doesn't want to lynch EA.
On September 08 2011 03:41 syllogism wrote: The setup was probably slight scum favored, given the fact psychiatrist could die by either visiting EA or getting visited by it, and also because EA and mafia surviving until the end allowed them to force no lynch. I suppose skipping night when EA dies helps a bit, but hunting for EA specifically isn't that easy and mafia doesn't want to lynch EA.
I suppose its also the setups fault that people didn't post more than the minimum required?
The setup was fine, town has no one to blame but itself.
also, question: how do you determine roles? randomly?
roles are RNG'd over and over until i like the results
That kinda beats the purpose of RNG xD I bet this comment will be meta-analyzed to death later on when most of the scum team flips.
ok if i got a result like this: ace team rocket ver team rocket bloodycobbler team rocket fishball team rocket amber team rocket kingjames team rocket
obviously that's no fair
no point in analysing it really. sometimes i want to see specific people be certain roles before the game starts and there is no way anyone could really predict that
On December 08 2010 13:21 Hesmyrr wrote: Heh I remeber struggling hard when I rolled Doctor on Ace when I hosted Penalty Mafia (moreso than scum team having no 'good' members); different philosophies, I guess.
from TL Mafia XXXIV
Hot damn, the RNG hates me. You might have understood my trepidation when I determined all the roles. Almost all the players I recognized - which admittedly is little as I hadn't been that active on mafia forum recently - were placed on the mafia team, Palmar being the only exception. And he rolled Doctor. It's like Penalty Mafia dejavu all over again, protective role going to the player most likely to be hit first by mafia not bluehunting. It seemed a recipe for mafia steamroll. Well, then TheFerryman happened, but I guess in a way my fear did come true. After starting off with commending position, the town just rolled over and died. My planned post-game note thus will be very brief. By the way, I still abide by my policy to stick with the initial RNG no matter how it flips. I am of a position that differences in activity level played greater factor on town loss this time rather than differences in skill.
Before I talk about the game, I must say modding this game taught me some valuable lessons. This is my second game as a mod, but my first (Penalty Mafia) relatively went without a hitch while lot of interesting problems occurred this time. I must give credit to Tackster for being a co-mod and someone with expertise I could ask for advise, because he assisted with a lot of things like flavour posts and how to handle the PM situation caused by, you know it, Cyber_Cheese :p Hopefully my game provided enough experience for you to avoid any accidental mistakes in the future.
Back to the point:
1) During the sign-up phase, poll on what time the deadline players prefer to end at. I'm definitely doing this next time I mod. Even when I am not available 24hr, at least I can compromise and try to get a time period where it is convenient for both me and them. I suspect most of the trouble with the voting had to do with the fact that 22:00 KST was extremely awkward hour for people to be online. No matter how much I prod people, it doesn't matter when that individual is sleeping at the moment.
2) Don't mess with the deadline. Ever. Extension fiasco taught me this lesson pretty clearly. What more could be said?
Few things about the game some people might not have been aware of. First, Erandorr. He deliberately chose the tactic of feigning uselessness to avoid being killed. Personally, I have no idea whether it was any different from typical blue-tells, but it seems to have worked so whatever. He could always have claimed to save himself from lynch, at least.
Second, JeeJee gambit. Hopefully mafia releases their QT so you can get the first-hand material. The tell, if you haven't guessed from Jackal flip by now, was intentional. I'm still not sure whether this is incredible genius or not. It's original purpose of alleviating pressure from Mr. Wiggles failed... but then it also shotgunned healthy scum-hunting atmosphere to hell and when the things calmed down, all townies that could have helped to put the town back on track were dead. The wording on Ver's guide - that there is difference between poor town and town playing poorly because of mafia manipulation - comes to mind. But on another hand, surely the average activity level had been a bit higher...?
Not else comes to mind but to say this is another example of game where inactivity severely hindered the town. Hopefully other individuals can give their post-game input too.
On September 08 2011 03:39 GMarshal wrote: So, the gig is up, I was the ferryman ^_^
AHA!
Right before you got nightkilled, I made the case how it was weird for a newbie to post so much analysis, and how you therefore had to be coached by other scum. It felt a bit embarassing when you immediately flipped green.
On September 08 2011 03:41 syllogism wrote: The setup was probably slight scum favored, given the fact psychiatrist could die by either visiting EA or getting visited by it, and also because EA and mafia surviving until the end allowed them to force no lynch. I suppose skipping night when EA dies helps a bit, but hunting for EA specifically isn't that easy and mafia doesn't want to lynch EA.
I suppose its also the setups fault that people didn't post more than the minimum required?
The setup was fine, town has no one to blame but itself.
Oh I didn't mean it like that, that was a purely objective take on the setup itself. Town messed up, definitely, and the balance wasn't overall bad at all
It was difficult to get reads since most of the townies didn't do much scumhunting (palmar and ferry died early lol) but I think Jackal is something and Forumite as well.
The only other possibilities are Eiii, Kurumi, and CyberCheese IMO. Problem with kurumi/Eiii is that both have hardcore lurked (kurumi's a replacement for an inactive) so I'd say out of cyber/jackal/forum then cyber might be scum or town, jackal psych or EA and Forumite scum/EA.
I wouldve pushed a forumite lynch or at least tried to get more information.
Original Message From Hesmyrr: Well, I rejected all the role list request from other people, but since you helped me out before I'll give you an exception. I will tell you the role of a single player at the beginning of every day and night post. Amazing, right?
It would have been interesting to see who were your suspects though. Show nested quote +
Finding the breadcrumb wasn't particularly suspicious, but the way he justified finding it was. His day 1 posts regarding wiggles were quite scummy as well, but still it probably would have been difficult to get over the fact he gave away Jeejee in such a fashion.
On September 08 2011 03:45 sandroba wrote: Hmmm, I'm not sure I agree with this GM. Town did lynch jeejee and wiggles quite early, it was jackal's merit to remain hidden for so long.
I'm not trying to take away from jackal, but when the longest analysis post after my death is about 4 quotes with a line of text under each one you can hardly argue that the town made an active effort to find scum. It seemed to me like 2-3 people would vote and then everyone else would bandwagon without even reading the thread. The tnkted lynch should not have happened, for example, if anyone were actually reading the thread. As I said, the bus was an absolutely genius scum play, if anyone needs to learn how to do a proper bus, that's the one to learn from, still I feel like the town rolled over and died.
EDIT: sorry if I come off a little harsh, it just bothers me that I spent all these hours writing up analysis and reading through people's meta, and that people then choose to just not care -__-
On September 08 2011 03:51 syllogism wrote: Finding the breadcrumb wasn't particularly suspicious, but the way he justified finding it was. His day 1 posts regarding wiggles were quite scummy as well, but still it probably would have been difficult to get over the fact he gave away Jeejee in such a fashion.
I thought some might find it weird that Jackal58 had not voted JeeJee immediately after finding out that breadcrumb, but then I am biased from the role list.
I like the Majority votes, Town need to be more aggressive, and that people are forced to take sides, or force a no-lynch. It might get extreme late in the day though, 4 votes required to vote when it´s 5 players, 3 votes when there´s 4 players. Perhaps (Players+1)/2, round up, would be an option.
Haha, I actually figured you were the ferryman, just because of the Reaper pictures you always put into your posts at the beginning of games.
The funny thing too, is that my post that you jumped on, wasn't made with any anti-town motive in mind. I actually just wrote out a plan of action, decided it was bad, but to post it anyways to "promote discussion", and look pro-town. I might've actually done the same thing as a green. :p
At that point, nobody was talking, so I figured I'd give something for town to talk about.
That mafia QT is flipping gold ^_^ I was reading along the entire game, hopefully this will help with my play and i wont get lynched day 1 this time, haha.
chaos13 can confirm I thought jackal was ea and forumite the remaining scum, just claiming that for bragging rights.
But yeah, it was filled with some townies using terrible logic, and some townies simply not playing. This is what happens when town doesn't play, we lose terribly. The bus was very well executed by the mafia team, but they all played quite scummy during day 1 which should've lead to a quick town win.
For the record I actually was that inactive by choice in this game and also kind of scummy just because I could die by the hands of 2 parties instead of one. That voting fuck up still bugs me though -.-
will read post-game reactions later, but as I imagine there will be questions on this: all intentional. Here's my quote somewhere early in day one.
so here's the plan. jackal bus the hell out of wiggles d1, then jackal bus the hell out of me d2, then jackal goes on to win like a boss.
discuss.
Not quite in that order, but yeah. I think bussing is hilarious.
edit: @hesmyrr We didn't kill palmar because he is palmar. I think killing people based solely on who they are is stupid and I hate people who do that (like the jerks in wv and xliv ). I think our primary reason for killing palmar was that he was making sense. That's a really good townie trait to have, so naturally we have to kill him. It was just a coincidence that he was doc as well. Ferry was also on our possible list, since he was making sense as well.. but we felt (correctly as it turns out) that he was likely to attract a doc. Significantly moreso than Palmar anyway. Anyway it's all in the QT.
Busing like that doesn't really work, because then people begin to think "why isn't he dead yet? He should be confirmed Town -> priority target" then you get lynched.
On September 08 2011 06:04 Erandorr wrote: For the record I actually was that inactive by choice in this game and also kind of scummy just because I could die by the hands of 2 parties instead of one. That voting fuck up still bugs me though -.-
Really? I did a check on lurkers and their activity in different games, your activity looked about normal.
Also, while the plan with jackal worked, there can be suspicions anyway. Jackal is a good player, and Scum likely want to kill him off early, if he found JeeJee then all the more reason to kill him quickly. That´s what wherebugsgo was on to, Scum kill Jackal, unless he´s scum too. As for Cyber, Jackal and Me, we were considered Town at the end, and should really have been killed off by scum, to remove active players and to leave Town with more potential scum to choose between. That the EA is bulletproof work against the role in this case, I was too noticeable when hunting Wiggles, I should have died after his lynch, and that´s exactly what jackal tried to arrange.
On September 08 2011 06:04 Erandorr wrote: For the record I actually was that inactive by choice in this game and also kind of scummy just because I could die by the hands of 2 parties instead of one. That voting fuck up still bugs me though -.-
Really? I did a check on lurkers and their activity in different games, your activity looked about normal.
Also, while the plan with jackal worked, there can be suspicions anyway. Jackal is a good player, and Scum likely want to kill him off early, if he found JeeJee then all the more reason to kill him quickly. That´s what wherebugsgo was on to, Scum kill Jackal, unless he´s scum too. As for Cyber, Jackal and Me, we were considered Town at the end, and should really have been killed off by scum, to remove active players and to leave Town with more potential scum to choose between. That the EA is bulletproof work against the role in this case, I was too noticeable when hunting Wiggles, I should have died after his lynch, and that´s exactly what jackal tried to arrange.
I blew your fucking head off. Unfortunately you didn't have a head and it blew Chaos13's head off.
For the record I didn't want to bus Jee Jee. I only did it to get an extra day out of Mr. Wiggles. And next time you want to say something Bugs don't wait for the day post. Dead men tell no tales.
I couldn't believe you guys didn't lynch me after that. Oh wait. We were busy killing Wiggles.
On September 08 2011 09:19 Jackal58 wrote: I blew your fucking head off. Unfortunately you didn't have a head and it blew Chaos13's head off.
I knew there was something off about you finding that breadcrumb.
Sorry for my shitty play the first two days here, I hope I improved it some after that. I was busy and my mind was occupied with things other than mafia, but I got it sorted out and had more time to devote to the game. Kudos to Ferryman for his scumhunting abilities.
On September 08 2011 10:32 GreYMisT wrote: My guess is EA is not allowed to roleclaim, revealing that he knew who you were would indirectly reveal that he is the EA. not sure though.
He could have made a case against me with out role claiming. I called him EA once and nobody noticed it.
On September 08 2011 10:22 Jackal58 wrote: Forumite - Why didn't you out me? You knew I was scum.
I can see exactly why he didn't.
What happens when a faction is eliminated? Skip a night phase. What does that mean? Another lynch. How many anti-town targets are they looking for now? One. Does finding scum as third party or third party as scum gain you an ounce of town cred? No.
It was in the best interests of both of you to work with the other, especially considering that one could get pissed off if they end up being lynched and start really attacking the other, and then when EA flips town goes "Oh look he knew who scum was" or when scum flips "Oh look he must have hit the EA and knew who he was."
On September 08 2011 10:22 Jackal58 wrote: Forumite - Why didn't you out me? You knew I was scum.
I was carefull, I knew that if I did a mistake, then they´d kill me directly after, so I was trying to make sure that once you died, everyone would allready be insane, so the extra lynch wouldn´t be able to touch me. It wasn´t quite ready for that.
GG guys, jackal's bus of JeeJee is the only reason I didn't accuse him of scum right away; he felt off but I thought that nobody would bother handing us the first scum on d2.
On September 08 2011 22:28 tnkted wrote: I TOLD YALL TO LYNCH FORUMITE
AAAAAAGH
GG guys, jackal's bus of JeeJee is the only reason I didn't accuse him of scum right away; he felt off but I thought that nobody would bother handing us the first scum on d2.
Do you mean the OMGUS when I pushed for your lynch?
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It seemed a recipe for mafia steamroll. Well, then TheFerryman happened, but I guess in a way my fear did come true. After starting off with commending position, the town just rolled over and died. My planned post-game note thus will be very brief. By the way, I still abide by my policy to stick with the initial RNG no matter how it flips. I am of a position that differences in activity level played greater factor on town loss this time rather than differences in skill.
