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On August 24 2011 08:23 TheFerryman wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 08:20 Palmar wrote:On August 24 2011 08:18 Sevryn wrote:On August 24 2011 08:15 Jackal58 wrote:On August 24 2011 07:59 TheFerryman wrote:
EBWOP: "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis, but the *objectives* remain the same. In the case of wiggles, its to appear pro-town while pushing his agenda. Wiggles achieves it by making long policy posts, you would do it in a different way. In the end what matters is the objective and the mentality behind it. Really. Who are you smurfing for? If he is new I wanna know where he came from really awesome posts. he's not new, he's read way too many games for that to make sense. Instead of speculating about whether or not I'm a smurf, try reading my case and commenting on it. You can assume whatever you want. I'm new, I was waiting for a smallish game, so I took the opportunity to read through as many games as possible. Now focus on things that actually *matter*.
I did read your posts. That's why I asked again. Was more a joke than anything.
I can't disagree with your analysis. But I can wait a bit before I decide on who I'm voting for and why. If you read all the games I've played you'll find I'm pretty useless on day 1 and typically dead by day 2.
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On Wiggles, I´m not prepared to vote on him until I hear him defend himself. He hasn´t posted since Ferryman posted his analysis on Wiggles, and I´m fairly sure that was the first FoS on him.
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Hooray, there's discussion.
So we can have discussion, I'm going to respond to the case against me, which for once seems thought out for a day 1 case. My responses in Blue.
On August 24 2011 05:38 TheFerryman wrote:Ladies and Gentelmen. The Eldricht horror has just successfully ousted himself. Well done wiggles. Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is the horror afraid of? Two things, 1.) the lynch, as it kills him and makes him incapable of winning, and conversely town losing too fast, since then he won't be able to infect everyone in time. This means that the horror is going to try to present an organized, pro-town stance and appearance, so expect things like long policy/mechanics posts and attempts at directing town attention early in the game, and later focus on scumhunting, probably successfully getting scum lynched. He obviously wants to draw scum hits, since they increase the number of insane people in the town. All this means he is going to try to *appear* town, while pushing to resolve his fear #2 + Show Spoiler +Making posts talking about the set-up is the best way to get people talking about the game. It provides an entry point for discussion, which is normally sorely lacking in games that start on Day 1. Before my post, all people were talking about was basically fluff, and completely useless from a scum-hunting point of view. Basically, you got people making terrible votes that don't even generate pressure, and a bunch of OMGUS. I even made fun of this by randomly voting for Eiii and posting the song "Under Pressure" (Haha haha haha :p)
So, by talking about the set-up, we can begin to gather information, see where people stand. Anti-town players are going to try to push for something anti-town while attempting to make it appear pro-town, or divert town attention to something meaningless. Honestly, I was surprised that no one else had attempted to talk about the set-up, because that's the easiest way to start a conversation.
Also, any decent player is going to open with a general post, and then scum hunt. It doesn't make sense to do otherwise, and if you are new, then you too suffer from that terrible disease of "You must scum hunt when there is no content to do so from", for an example of this, check out Arkham Asylum, which you've claimed to have read, and that I'll be referencing again. 2.) The psychologist, as every night the psychologist is alive the horror's wincondition becomes a little harder to carry out. For this reason expect plans that involve the psychologist claiming, and plans that require mass claims. Remember the sooner the psychologist is dead, the sooner the horror can carry out his wincondition. + Show Spoiler +I never asked the psychologist to claim. I considered it, then decided it was a bad idea. You're putting words in my mouth -_-. Also note no plans about mass-claiming. With that in mind, lets take a good look at Wiggles first post of the game. My comments in spoilers inside the quote Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote:##Vote: Eiii Where you at? Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity. + Show Spoiler + Right here, he is already downplaying the danger the horror poses to the town, I'm betting that if he is ousted later in the game he'll try explain how lynching the horror is a "waste of a lynch" when we could be hitting "real scum". Also, notice how he is *already* taking about the psychologist. Its the number one thing on his mind. He couldn't even get past the first paragraph without worrying about it
What danger does the Horror pose to town? He has no KP, and the only effect he has is that the psychologist dies when he comes into contact with him (And the psychologist is a role that focuses entirely on the horror mechanic), and he screws up our medic and mafia KP. He poses no direct danger to us, and is only dangerous in that he can end the game early if he achieves his win-con. However, his win condition won't come into effect until at least day three, simply due to the somewhat slow rate of conversion. This means that it is relatively safe to ignore him for day 1 at least, because he has the power to do nothing to town. In fact, I would say that the people hunting for the horror are more likely to be mafia, because it provides them an out in terms of analysis because they can scum hunt for something that is actually anti-town, not mafia, and that will give them town cred. So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well) + Show Spoiler + Look at this magnificent plan to get his hands on the psychologist, for a 1/13 chance of losing outright he gets to kill his #1 threat to victory. Plus, he is going to be so "pro-town" the worrying about the psychologist checking *him* won't be an issue. Look at point 1 and 2 above, here is wiggles, promoting a plan that reveals the psychologist yet appears pro-town. this is the giveaway that wiggles has only one focus. Notice how the mafia is only mentioned in passing and the medic isn't even a concern. Its because to wiggles those things aren't important, in his mind those take second place to the much more relevant psychologist that stands in his way, and of course to appearing town
You have to take posts as a whole, keep reading...
As well, why is the medic a concern when talking specifically about the horror and the psychologist? The medic does not effect that dynamic, while the mafia can by shooting the psychologist. Nice try to make me look like I'm focusing too much on the psychologist, when he's the only role that's relevant when talking about the horror. There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as. Pros: -Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary) Cons: -Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target. Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is. + Show Spoiler + and now he is backtracking, while still pushing for the psychologist to "breadcrumb", which wiggles, our mega clue master will be able to catch. Notice how he isn't even supporting his own plan, its a "point of discussion". In other words, he is hoping a foolish townie is going to pick it up and run with it, or even better a stupid psychologist is going to think "huh, this isn't bad, I better do as wiggles suggested". A real townie, someone who cares about whether the town loses or wins is not going to propose what he considers a bad plan, especially not a veteran player like wiggles, who knows that as a rule of thumb, towns are stupid and tend to subscribe to bad ideas. BY proposing a poor idea as a "point of discussion" wiggles is pushing all the objectives of a smart horror.
Not backtracking. I came up with the idea of having the psychologist claim, but then decided that it was bad, and said so in my post. However, instead of not posting at all, I decided that it would be better to just post it anyways to provide a point for discussion, which had been very much absent until that point. Only an IDIOT would have read that post, where I say "I don't think it's really worth it", and then decide to claim Psychologist in thread. I was actually hoping that someone would try to argue against what I said, and push for the plan to be implemented, because there would be high chance of them being the horror (not a dumb townie). Unfortunately, no one took the bait.
So, you're putting words in my mouth again to try to push my lynch. I did not suggest that the psychologist should claim, in fact I said that I think it's a bad idea. As well, if you read my further posts, I said that the psychologist should breadcrumb, but that the rest of town should breadcrumb in that case as well, because then mafia can't just find the breadcrumbs and blue-snipe. I suggest a plan of obfuscation, that will provide the ability to easily reveal targets on flip or on claim, as opposed to opening up the avenue of fake-claiming without prior clues for the mafia. Also, such breadcrumbs should only be for names of targets, not the actual action as well. Discuss! + Show Spoiler +Wiggles is the edritch horror.
So, is it better to post something, that you know is a bad idea, in order to promote discussion, or is it better to post nothing at all? Ferryman seems to believe that it is better to not post, or that someone posting and trying to generate discussion is anti-town. He twists what I wrote a lot, by saying that I'm trying to push forward this plan, when in reality, I myself wrote that it wasn't that great. As well, instead of discussing the merits of my ideas with me, the point of my post, he instead simply attacks me as the horror, which does nothing to help us choose the most optimal route of play.
On August 24 2011 07:35 TheFerryman wrote: On Meta, and Wiggles. So, Jackal, meta makes you think wiggles is not a 3rd party, does it? Lets look at the a game where wiggle has been third party in the past, and compare his behavior in that game to his behavior here. (I am disregarding the game where he was an assassin, since in that game his goal was not to appear pro-town, but rather maintain a scummy profile to avoid being shot by the mafia, and survivor mafia, where he was the only anti-town player in an open PM game) Lets take a look at a post in Insane mafia 2, hosted by LSB, where wiggles was part of a third party faction. Here is a sample post. Some background, for those who don't feel like figuring out what happened. Bumatlarge had just claimed to be part of the town aligned circle of blues, who all knew each other and each other's alignment, in a bid to gain mayorship, no one counterclaimed him, which basically meant he was confirmed town, and a dt to boot. Kavdragon, a member of wiggle's third party team was also vying for the mayorship. Now read the post. + Show Spoiler +On March 25 2011 05:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Ok, so here's my thoughts on the mayorship:
For me, this is really between Kav and bum.
At the moment, I'm trying to figure out how much I want to trust bum's blue claim. So far, he is uncontested, which possibly bodes well for him being a true blue. However, as others have stated, and I've been considering, there is still the possibility of his being scum, even with no counterclaim. It really comes down to the likelihood of Blues wanting to make a 1-1 trade so early in the game, and before roles have even been given. I am assuming, since everyone will have a power, that blues will be much stronger than greens. There is also a disparity between the number of powerful town roles (Blues) and scum in this game, and while I personally feel analysis is a far stronger tool, most of the TL towns I've been in have been reverent of Blue's power, often to the point of reliance (Eg: XXXV). So just applying metagame, it seems unusual a blue would be willing to put himself out there so quickly and prominently.
I see this either as a power move by the blues (as most people are assuming), or as a cunning play by scum. A lot of my suspicion comes from timing. Bum claimed before night 0 is over, and I would have trusted it a lot more if it was on Day 1, as he would have his role already. For example, bum could be scum, but conceivably a blue wouldn't bother to contest him until they get their roles, so they can use the weakest combination of role/player on their team to out him, which makes it harder for them, considering the amount of time bum has been uncontested, which can also be used for a WIFOM argument from him.
Kav on the other hand, has no real assurances that he is not scum. So far, his posting has seemed pro-town, but he hasn't really expounded on any of his views besides that he wants to stay alive to analyze and direct the town. I've had first-hand experience with him as mayor, working closely with him in XXXVI, so I know that he is a very capable and active player. Before I'd vote for him though, I'd need to hear more about what he'd do Day 1 lynch, and what other things he'd try to do with his longevity.
So, in short, I feel both Bum and Kav would make good mayors. Kav based on personal experience with him, and Bum on the condition of being blue. I'm still trying to evaluate the likelihood of a Night 0 blue claim though, because I really don't like the timing, and would like to see if there are counterclaims Day 1. Hopefully if Bum isn't blue, someone would eventually counterclaim, because blues wouldn't want to let scum become mayor. I also don't think the lack of Night 0 counterclaims really strengthens his claim in any way, because as I've said, blues probably wouldn't counterclaim until Day 1 anyways, when they can make a much better choice of counterclaiming player. Notice one thing, the obvious fact was that bum *had* to be a blue, else the blue faction would have conterclaimed. However third party wiggles isn't afraid to push a anti-town agenda to further his own team. 3rd party wiggles isn't afraid to push his own plans, against the town. Also notice how a third party wiggles is really good at ending his post with dodging responsibility, his whole post casts doubts on bum, yet at the end of the post he backs down, while still supporting his agenda of getting his buddy elected. Lets compare that to his first post this game where wiggles, pushes a anti-town agenda and at the end backs down to dodge responsibility. The similarity between these two posts is... stunning. For the sake of fairness lets look at what Wiggle's normal town play looks like, with a post from BCs Arkham Asylum, where wiggles was Zsasz a vigilante. + Show Spoiler +On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Ok, so let's get this started! First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines. A pro-town atmosphereThis normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things: - Promoting scum hunting.
- Not having pointless arguments
- Actively contributing
- All that jazz
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important. We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum. Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia. Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk. CluesThere's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUST MUST MUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum. Third PartiesLooking at the third parties, here's what we want: -We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition. This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game. If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game?
If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game?Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling. Lets look at the key differences between this type of early game post and wiggle's post in this game. What does it talk about? It talks about catching scum, about things that are relevant to the main objective, defeating the mafia. What does it do that the other post doesn't? 1.) It gives concrete, powerful advice about things that need to be said, and things that are important to avoding chaos. Is that even mentioned in his post here? Of course not, this game, he could care less about a good scum-hunting atmosphere, since all he has to do is *appear* town, the actual atmosphere is irrelevant, since if he can't find mafia he'll fabricate a case. The post from arkham is attempting to be helpful 2.)This post owns up to what it is trying to do, that is lead and organize the town, with no excuses made for it. Wiggles shows no hesitation, no "well, actually its ok if you bicker, that might help hunt scum too" in this post wiggles owns up to his post. there is no hesitation, just ownership 3.) He doesn't focus excessively on one topic he talks about a bunch of different things. He reveals his mind is not focused around a particular target, he covers everything unlike his post this game that focuses on the two elements that he is most focused on. Wiggle's meta fits perfectly with the way third party wiggle plays, pushing his objectives while backtracking so it looks like he isn't. It looks nothing like his town meta, where he doesn't have a single minded focus, and actually owns up to his posts, while trying to propose things that are actually helpful, rather than a objectivity bad plan. Sorry Jackal, but your meta read is wrong, Wiggles is a Horror, without a shadow of doubt.
There's a few glaring problems in this post about meta as well. In Insane 2, I was NOT a third party. Though it is entitled third party, the faction was more equivalent to a second mafia family, with a full roster of 4 players, PM rights, and equivalent abilities. Thus, that post is a bad example of trying to find something to compare when talking about third parties. The only games I have played as true third party, were the ones as Assassin, and as Serial Killer, which you dismiss in an attempt to try to find a post that better matches the one I made in this game, in which I am more akin to mafia, than a true third party.
As well, you do not take context into the quote you pulled from AA. In that game, nearly a third of the player base was completely new, with either 1 or no games played previously. Thus, a post such as that is necessary to give direction and promote a good atmosphere with newer players. This town is mostly made up of experienced players, so there isn't really a need to provide a generic post, because everyone should be experienced enough to realize what they need to do without having the same post regurgitated at the beginning of every game. So, instead of wasting time talking about things people should have learned after a couple games, I am able to jump straight into talking about the set-up.
Meta is normally a very weak argument to make against someone, and the fact that you use incorrect meta that doesn't take context into example doesn't sit well with me either. But, since you seem to love it so much, then you should be aware that if I'm called scum on Day 1, then I'm town, and if I'm not, then I'm mafia. This has been true for maybe the last 10 normal games I've played. As well, your case against me seems eerily similar to Drazerk's and Ghrur's from AA, calling me third party, because I deigned to discuss the third parties. I'm not going to rehash everything I wrote in that game in response, but I'll link their analysis so you can see the similarities:
+ Show Spoiler +On July 19 2011 12:09 ghrur wrote:Hello fellow mafia players! I see you've all been discussing SS quite a lot. Allow me to introduce another candidate for the lynch. 2 candidates are better than one, and it'd be even better if we could force the mafia to choose.  Without further ado, here I go. VOTE WIGGLES Drazerk was the first one to nominate this candidate. His analysis is here. + Show Spoiler +On July 18 2011 21:13 Drazerk wrote:Time to actually go to work I guess. Let's start with our always scum fellow Mr. Wiggles shall we? Now we could say wiggles has a track record of being scum but the problem is his scum play has been pretty bland, In fact in RTM / WaW2 we was able to pick him out as scum just because of how little effort he puts in when being scum. Now when I read the thread this morning I was pretty much blown away by how much effort he was putting in, Its almost as if he did a 180 and is trying his best to not follow his scum meta by promoting a pro town atmosphere. + Show Spoiler +On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Ok, so let's get this started! First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines. A pro-town atmosphereThis normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things: - Promoting scum hunting.
- Not having pointless arguments
- Actively contributing
- All that jazz
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important. We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum. Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia. Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk. CluesThere's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUST MUST MUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum. Third PartiesLooking at the third parties, here's what we want: -We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition. This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game. If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game?
If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game?Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling. You will see a post like that at the start of every game, In fact it's pretty much one of the easiest ways to gain townie points as the post is pretty much common sense followed with some "weak" policies. Notice how wiggles keeps mentioning the third parties? + Show Spoiler +On July 18 2011 10:58 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 10:37 deconduo wrote:
I agree that Batman killing the Joker is the ideal situation. However I would regard all 3rd party, including Batman, as anti-town. They constitute 3 extra KP each night which results in a faster lylo and less DT checks and clues. If we catch one they should be lynched. None of this 'Keep me alive and I'll help town' crap.
Given the size of the game and the heavy activity requirement there will be a lot of reading to do. There will certainly be people attempting to just pass with the bare minimum of posts. These people should be scrutinised intensly, and lynched if any clues point towards them. Mhmm, if we catch them, we should lynch them. However, how can we catch them? The only ways I can see, are through just behavioural analysis, and also clue analysis. That's why I say, that if someone is acting like an SK, we might as well lynch them. However, SKs normally act like lurkers, or are scummy, from my experience. So, that means the batman should be shooting into lurkers and scummy people. On the flip-side though, Ra'al is going to be shooting into pro-town players, as Batman wants to try to look like a green, most likely. The priority is: joker>batman>ra'al Because killing up the chain, removes the players below. So, I guess you're right, that we should always kill third-parties, to remove their KP. However, the priority should be on the joker, as he will most likely appear scummiest, and also his death removes all third parties. The constant talk of game mechanics makes it seem like he is pro town when he is pretty much posting fluff at this point he just seems to want to enter lylo later when he has established himself as a town player. Shall we go into his other posts about game mechanics? + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On July 18 2011 11:01 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 10:57 redFF wrote:
If you clue analyse backing it up with some other form of analysis or evidence can help, but isn't necessary. If you see a clue don't be afraid to point it out.
Unless its like, x is a detective, then don't point it out lol. On the whole I think relying on clue analysis is pretty terrible though so i won't be basing any of my voting around some vague clue which could be pointing to 10 different people. Clue analysis can be strong, and also, newer players are sometimes easily swayed by it, because it seems like an "objective" form of scum-hunting. I'm saying, before pointing out any clues, look at the person who was killed, and the posting history of the player you think the clue is pointing to. For example, if they killed a mafia, and look super pro-town, what would be the possible benefits of pointing it out? However, if someone killed town, and look scummy, then make an actual analysis and then attach the perceived clue to it. No one should be lynched only on clues, and clues shouldn't just be looked at in a vacuum. On July 18 2011 11:06 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 11:02 CreamyButter wrote:Maybe it's because I only have 35 posts, but 5 posts a day seems like a hell of a lot, and I'm predicting a ton of spam/filler posts just to hit the minimum (I'm kind of freaking out about getting modkilled if I forget one evening lol). Maybe we should tag our posts like /analysis or /filler? Since I feel like if people are all forced to make 5 posts a day, there might be a lot of red herrings from tired townies who just want the day to end, and this way we can sort of manually adjust the posting minimum to like 3 "real" posts a day. Or 8 or whatever. @Curu Give me a sec to think about it. From what I understand the mafia just sort of chill, analyze/snipe blues, give confusing/chaos-inspiring analysis, and attempt to plant themselves into town circles. Not sure if there are any strategies that would be particular to this game yet, but will totally get back to you on that. Also I'm sure this is unintentional, but just to make sure, There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's a minimum, not a limit, right? Yeah, it's a minimum, I just used the word limit for some reason =/ If you are being active and playing the game, you shouldn't really have any problem making the 5 post minimum. For example, you already made 2 decent posts, and still have almost 70 hours to make the other three to avoid mod-kill. Also, filler should mostly be avoided if possible, as there are always other things to post besides useless stuff. For example, you can comment on other people's analysis, on the voting patterns or bandwagons that are going to appear, on how people are acting or trying to manipulate town, etc. There's lots to talk about. :p On July 18 2011 11:06 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 11:03 deconduo wrote:On July 18 2011 11:00 redFF wrote:
And regarding blacks I feel it is best to ignore them. Usually I don't really like lynching blacks, but since they all have 1kp a night and will be shooting into town I say if we find them we should be lynching them.
Im going to be treating all the black roles as serial killers. I disagree about ignoring them. Effort should definitely be made in finding and lynching them, especially the Joker and/or Batman. Agreed. Together the third party hold the same amount of KP as the entire mafia, and based on probability, are more like to kill town than mafia too. On July 18 2011 11:49 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 11:41 Curu wrote:
Just a lovely note to our lovely DTs out there:
Never check a man who is a very likely lynch. If you find a guilty, well he's getting killed anyways. If you find an innocent, then you shouldn't be outing yourself to save him anyways unless there are very few players left in the game. The Godfather/third parties also give innocent checks.
To our lovely Vigilantes:
Likewise, if someone is declared a policy lynch or something of that nature, it is far better to have our Vigilantes shoot them instead. The lynch process gives us no information when reds can easily bandwagon lynch someone. Remember that the lynch is a process for finding information and connections as well, not just a simple kill. Also, to add on to advice for DTs, especially as there are a lot of newer players present, always try to form a case around a player based on analysis if you get a guilty check. Do not just claim. Claiming early is never a good thing, as a 1-1 trade with mafia benefits them more than town. On July 18 2011 11:57 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 11:51 Zona wrote:
^
Well, a "1-1 trade" benefits town a TON more than the mafia, if the town is vanilla. But a DT trade for a mafia is a poor one. Oops, I might have screwed up the logic, haha. Been playing scum for too long. O.o Green for mafia is an awesome trade, as we outnumber the mafia. 1-1 with a DT isn't great early on, especially depending on who the scum is. For example, if you checked random lurker A and they returned red, try to get them shot or lynched, don't claim. Trading a DT for a red lurker isn't a very good trade, when we can get additional use out of the DT. Use your discretion, but I think making a push for a lynch based on analysis should be the first step taken, before any kind of claim. So essentially most of his posts are either about, The third parties or how to deal with clues. He has actually done little scum hunting which is a typical trait of his scum play. In my opinion Wiggles is trying very hard to not look like his regular scum meta by "Appearing" to put in effort but with the little scum hunting / FoSing from him he seems to have just concentrated on the mechanics side of the game (Basically fluff) and promote his "Town atmosphere" the best way he can. FoS on Wiggles ##Vote: Mr. Wiggles Now, while I have read it, I came to the conclusion of my own accord. I will most likely bring up similar points, but I shall try to add new material as well. First off, if you notice, Wiggles has not given up ANY information. His posts consist of general advice, "null tell" posts, defenses, and future promises. They all serve a purpose, if he were mafia. General advice makes him look town. Null tell is an easy way to write something off while seeming logical and townie. Defenses = I DON'T WANT TO GET LYNCHED. Future promises mean nothing except that he gets to hide his current information. What's lacking is a stance, a thought, a suspicion, anything concrete to show he's actually scum hunting. Mafia moves right here, gentlemen. Or, you know, SK moves. Now, if you were to look through wiggle's posts, you'll notice that in his very first discussion of mechanics/generalities, he goes in depth into third party thinking. He also seems to be promoting the bats. Notice: + Show Spoiler + So, that means the batman should be shooting into lurkers and scummy people. On the flip-side though, Ra'al is going to be shooting into pro-town players, as Batman wants to try to look like a green, most likely.
The priority is:
joker>batman>ra'al
Because killing up the chain, removes the players below.
So, I guess you're right, that we should always kill third-parties, to remove their KP. However, the priority should be on the joker, as he will most likely appear scummiest, and also his death removes all third parties. "So, I guess you're right" seems like a begrudging answer. He didn't want to admit it. "batman shooting into lurkers and scummy people" seems to be promoting the bats. Notice also how he's analyzed the likely behavior of theese characters already. This indicates a lot of thinking about these roles. This makes me inclined to believe he's Bats, or at least an SK. + Show Spoiler +based on probability, are more like to kill town than mafia too. My god. He's even thought about third party probabilities. I'm wondering if he means cost/benefit probabilities or just hey, 3/4th = town and less than 1/4th = mafia. :/ If only he specified. but then, that'd be too much info wouldn't it? Now, around 7/18 13:14 TL time, something interesting happens. Pyo softly pressures Wiggles. Wiggle's response? A paragraph, providing meta-game proof that his actions are a "null-tell." See here. + Show Spoiler +
Meh, it's a null-tell again. Examples, GM in Real-Time Mafia, Kavdragon in Pick Your Power Insane. Both making long posts trying to direct town at the beginning, both town. Also, if you think my post is spam, please point out how. If you read it, I specifically say I'm not going to write a general how to play town guide, just give a little bit of general advice against what's made town lose in about three of the last four games I've played, and then talked about how to use clues properly and that killing Joker is a high priority for town. It's not even that massive either, haha.
The problem here is that there was in no way ANY threat towards him. I would shrug it off. Why does it matter? I see this as over-defensive. An act of Mafia/SK. I called Curu out on something similar, and I'm calling Wiggles out on this now. Pyo continues accusing, but never voting, to put on pressure. Wiggles starts getting angsty, defensive, and even a bit upset I dare say. Notice the ad-homs coming out. + Show Spoiler +Are you sure about that? I'm starting to question if you read posts or just skim through them. There's no reason to do that at all. Name calling creates chaos and strife. We don't need that sort of atmosphere. I prefer logical to the emotional. I guess SKs/Mafia prefer different. That quote happened around 7/18 15:45. Wiggles doesn't post again until 7/19 2:16. Looking at the big picture of the day, Wiggles has done absolutely nothing. Generic advice and defense. Great. How useful. But he seems like town! No, no he doesn't. By the time Wiggles comes back, discussion has already taken place on new lynch candidates. New suspects. New post analyses to be done. Does Wiggles do any of that? No! He doesn't scum hunt! He jumps STRAIGHT to defending himself from Drazerk's accusation. Let's take a look. + Show Spoiler +
I'm gonna address the case against me pretty quickly, but basically I'm being accused of talking about game mechanics for the first two hours of the game, and not scumhunting. (Game started 10KST, last quoted post at 11:57KST). This accusation is true, but shouldn't mark me as scummy, given that it's pretty hard to scum hunt in the first two hours of the game, as most people have yet to post, or have very few posts. Mechanics are just a starting point to get people talking at the beginning of the game, as there is very little else to talk about. Scumhunting begins from there.
Notice, he says it's only 2 hours due to the last quoted post. Hahaha, he doesn't even try to give correct info. He had, in actuallity, 5 hours and 45 minutes worth of material to try and scum hunt off of, and THEN another 16 hours and 16 minutes of information to add in something with his defense. What does he do? He says he only had 2 hours. He LIED to strengthen his defense. Scum move, yes? The rest of his post talks about how the game started. Yeah, we all read that. That's not new information. Where's the scum hunting wiggles? Palmar calls him out on this. Palmar even stated there was no threat, and Wiggles didn't even need to defend. Oh, but defend he did. Just like earlier, with Pyo, he jumps on the defense and never attacks. He hints at attacks, like at Palmar (saying Palmar bandwagons) and SS (agreeing with Curu that SS lied), but he gives no analysis and he does not VOTE. HE'S NOT VOTING! He says Palmar is contradictory, and SS seems really suspicious and contradicted himself, yet he votes for neither. WHY? Because he doesn't want to commit to anything. No votes, no trails. Just soft hints. He's afraid to be wrong, to stick his head out, to provide information. Now, here's Wiggle's latest post. + Show Spoiler +
I can do clue analysis if you want. The only problem with your plan though, is that the clues only point to specific mafia, not all of them, so there won't always be clue analysis available for each lynch. A lack of clue analysis is not absolving.
Look. Once again he wants to do something without doing anything. Clue analysis doesn't need to point to anyone. It'll be vague. It'll be part of a team. You'll hide your opinion. It's IN THE FUTURE. Once again, this is not scum hunting. This is not taking a stance. This is being as unhelpful and uninformative as possible. Scum/SK play. So, after Wiggles stated that "there's a lot to talk about," that "he's re-reading the thread and taking notes on players," and that "we should keep a pro-town atmosphere," he has done none of those things. What a contradiction. I guess he's right that "scumhunting doesn't magically appear," especially not from scum. Join me, and vote Wiggles. Let's break up the bandwagons. Let's force him to take a stance. Let's force Mafia's hand and get them out amongst the townies. Most of all, let's lynch this killer. ##Vote Mr.Wiggles
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Ferryman, if you are new, then welcome to mafia! You have a bright future here, and if you're town mafia will probably want to hit you n1.
In this case though, I think you might be right but lynching palmar is a better move here. Sir Jesse Wiggles ESQ (duke of yorkshire) is a notoriously difficult person to read at the best of times because he plays so close to the chest, and I've written my share of analysis on him and been wrong every time.
That being said, your evidence makes a lot of sense, and if we don't have any other leads tomorrow I'd be totally happy gettin' wiggy wit' it. But right now, palmar is a better lynch because
A) His response to the FOS has been very scummy
B) The slip thing I mentioned earlier
C) It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.
Keep your eye on Wiggles and if you find anything else we'll act on it. For now though, Palmar is scummier than wiggles and I'd rather lynch him,
Just some advice: the first post you posted felt to me like more of a pressure post (ie it wasn't very convincing) but the second one (the meta one) was much more convincing (wiggles rather comprehensive response notwithstanding).
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Let me awnser your points, in green. I'm not going to have a back and forth where we go wall of text vs wall of text, I'm going to make my points and leave them at that, unless new evidence is brought up.
On August 24 2011 09:26 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Hooray, there's discussion. So we can have discussion, I'm going to respond to the case against me, which for once seems thought out for a day 1 case. My responses in Blue. Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 05:38 TheFerryman wrote:Ladies and Gentelmen. The Eldricht horror has just successfully ousted himself. Well done wiggles. Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is the horror afraid of? Two things, 1.) the lynch, as it kills him and makes him incapable of winning, and conversely town losing too fast, since then he won't be able to infect everyone in time. This means that the horror is going to try to present an organized, pro-town stance and appearance, so expect things like long policy/mechanics posts and attempts at directing town attention early in the game, and later focus on scumhunting, probably successfully getting scum lynched. He obviously wants to draw scum hits, since they increase the number of insane people in the town. All this means he is going to try to *appear* town, while pushing to resolve his fear #2 + Show Spoiler +Making posts talking about the set-up is the best way to get people talking about the game. It provides an entry point for discussion, which is normally sorely lacking in games that start on Day 1. Before my post, all people were talking about was basically fluff, and completely useless from a scum-hunting point of view. Basically, you got people making terrible votes that don't even generate pressure, and a bunch of OMGUS. I even made fun of this by randomly voting for Eiii and posting the song "Under Pressure" (Haha haha haha :p)
So, by talking about the set-up, we can begin to gather information, see where people stand. Anti-town players are going to try to push for something anti-town while attempting to make it appear pro-town, or divert town attention to something meaningless. Honestly, I was surprised that no one else had attempted to talk about the set-up, because that's the easiest way to start a conversation.
Also, any decent player is going to open with a general post, and then scum hunt. It doesn't make sense to do otherwise, and if you are new, then you too suffer from that terrible disease of "You must scum hunt when there is no content to do so from", for an example of this, check out Arkham Asylum, which you've claimed to have read, and that I'll be referencing again.
Talking about the setup is of dubious value, however I will grant you, it is a good way to start talking, I'm not bashing giving material to talk about, or talking about the setup. I'm saying that those usually pro-town actions are a null read, since the EH is going to be doing so as well, what I am taking note of is that the horror is going to take a town leadership position if he wants to be successful, therefor people who step up to a position of leadership come under immediate questioning 2.) The psychologist, as every night the psychologist is alive the horror's wincondition becomes a little harder to carry out. For this reason expect plans that involve the psychologist claiming, and plans that require mass claims. Remember the sooner the psychologist is dead, the sooner the horror can carry out his wincondition. + Show Spoiler +I never asked the psychologist to claim. I considered it, then decided it was a bad idea. You're putting words in my mouth -_-. Also note no plans about mass-claiming.
at this point I haven't yet talked about you, I'm taking about how a smart EH is going to be playing, but you do propose a plan in which the psychologist claims. Even if you back off of it in the same post. With that in mind, lets take a good look at Wiggles first post of the game. My comments in spoilers inside the quote On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote:##Vote: Eiii Where you at? Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity. + Show Spoiler + Right here, he is already downplaying the danger the horror poses to the town, I'm betting that if he is ousted later in the game he'll try explain how lynching the horror is a "waste of a lynch" when we could be hitting "real scum". Also, notice how he is *already* taking about the psychologist. Its the number one thing on his mind. He couldn't even get past the first paragraph without worrying about it
What danger does the Horror pose to town? He has no KP, and the only effect he has is that the psychologist dies when he comes into contact with him (And the psychologist is a role that focuses entirely on the horror mechanic), and he screws up our medic and mafia KP. He poses no direct danger to us, and is only dangerous in that he can end the game early if he achieves his win-con. However, his win condition won't come into effect until at least day three, simply due to the somewhat slow rate of conversion. This means that it is relatively safe to ignore him for day 1 at least, because he has the power to do nothing to town. In fact, I would say that the people hunting for the horror are more likely to be mafia, because it provides them an out in terms of analysis because they can scum hunt for something that is actually anti-town, not mafia, and that will give them town cred.
We cannot win while the horror is alive, the horror makes our medic unreliable, the horror can cause us to insta lose in several situations. I say the sooner we take it out the better, no? Also I like how you discreetly conclude that making a case against the horror is scummy, I approve of the hidden accusation. True, we can ignore him for a day or two, but if he is staring us in the face, then we should take him out So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well) + Show Spoiler + Look at this magnificent plan to get his hands on the psychologist, for a 1/13 chance of losing outright he gets to kill his #1 threat to victory. Plus, he is going to be so "pro-town" the worrying about the psychologist checking *him* won't be an issue. Look at point 1 and 2 above, here is wiggles, promoting a plan that reveals the psychologist yet appears pro-town. this is the giveaway that wiggles has only one focus. Notice how the mafia is only mentioned in passing and the medic isn't even a concern. Its because to wiggles those things aren't important, in his mind those take second place to the much more relevant psychologist that stands in his way, and of course to appearing town
You have to take posts as a whole, keep reading...
As well, why is the medic a concern when talking specifically about the horror and the psychologist? The medic does not effect that dynamic, while the mafia can by shooting the psychologist. Nice try to make me look like I'm focusing too much on the psychologist, when he's the only role that's relevant when talking about the horror.
correct, you are focusing on talking about two roles who you *just admitted* we don't need to worry about, yet you are focusing on them? Also, the medic + mafia *are* relevant to the psychologist EH interaction, as the mafia can choose to shoot the psychologist, the medic can protect, the medic starts going heywire when he interacts with the EH, all of which are at least worth mentioning in passing There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as. Pros: -Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary) Cons: -Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target. Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is. + Show Spoiler + and now he is backtracking, while still pushing for the psychologist to "breadcrumb", which wiggles, our mega clue master will be able to catch. Notice how he isn't even supporting his own plan, its a "point of discussion". In other words, he is hoping a foolish townie is going to pick it up and run with it, or even better a stupid psychologist is going to think "huh, this isn't bad, I better do as wiggles suggested". A real townie, someone who cares about whether the town loses or wins is not going to propose what he considers a bad plan, especially not a veteran player like wiggles, who knows that as a rule of thumb, towns are stupid and tend to subscribe to bad ideas. BY proposing a poor idea as a "point of discussion" wiggles is pushing all the objectives of a smart horror.
Not backtracking. I came up with the idea of having the psychologist claim, but then decided that it was bad, and said so in my post. However, instead of not posting at all, I decided that it would be better to just post it anyways to provide a point for discussion, which had been very much absent until that point. Only an IDIOT would have read that post, where I say "I don't think it's really worth it", and then decide to claim Psychologist in thread. I was actually hoping that someone would try to argue against what I said, and push for the plan to be implemented, because there would be high chance of them being the horror (not a dumb townie). Unfortunately, no one took the bait.
So, you're putting words in my mouth again to try to push my lynch. I did not suggest that the psychologist should claim, in fact I said that I think it's a bad idea. As well, if you read my further posts, I said that the psychologist should breadcrumb, but that the rest of town should breadcrumb in that case as well, because then mafia can't just find the breadcrumbs and blue-snipe. I suggest a plan of obfuscation, that will provide the ability to easily reveal targets on flip or on claim, as opposed to opening up the avenue of fake-claiming without prior clues for the mafia. Also, such breadcrumbs should only be for names of targets, not the actual action as well.
Yes, you are backtracking, proposing a plan and then saying its terrible, don't do it, doesn't actually generate discussion, in fact it allows scum to happily hide by saying things like "that is stupid" and "dont do that". I would argue that it is better to keep doing the rtidiculous Random Vote than giving mafia such a prime spot to hide. Not only are you pushing a stupid plan (and you know better) you are trying to hide it with the guise of discussion. As far as it would take an idiot to claim, I point you to the rule of thumb. "Don't rely on townies having a brain bigger than your thumb". If you really wanted to start discussion, you could have talked about how the mafia is going to be "scumhunting" for the EH to look pro-town, discussed why the EH is a risk, talked about possible EH strategies. There are other things you can discuss without proposing an awful plan, that lets the mafia blend in. Discuss! + Show Spoiler +Wiggles is the edritch horror. So, is it better to post something, that you know is a bad idea, in order to promote discussion, or is it better to post nothing at all? Ferryman seems to believe that it is better to not post, or that someone posting and trying to generate discussion is anti-town. He twists what I wrote a lot, by saying that I'm trying to push forward this plan, when in reality, I myself wrote that it wasn't that great. As well, instead of discussing the merits of my ideas with me, the point of my post, he instead simply attacks me as the horror, which does nothing to help us choose the most optimal route of play.I basically already addressed this in the above green text. Yes its better not to discuss than to post such a bad plan that the mafia can look uber-town for bashing it. Please don't tell me there aren't other things you could have talked about, because that frankly untrue. I am helping pick the most optimal route of play, that would be play normally and lynch wiggles the EH. There is literaly nothing to discuss about your plan. I can talk about exactly how sucky it is, but that won't get a mafia on the lynch plataform Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 07:35 TheFerryman wrote: On Meta, and Wiggles. So, Jackal, meta makes you think wiggles is not a 3rd party, does it? Lets look at the a game where wiggle has been third party in the past, and compare his behavior in that game to his behavior here. (I am disregarding the game where he was an assassin, since in that game his goal was not to appear pro-town, but rather maintain a scummy profile to avoid being shot by the mafia, and survivor mafia, where he was the only anti-town player in an open PM game) Lets take a look at a post in Insane mafia 2, hosted by LSB, where wiggles was part of a third party faction. Here is a sample post. Some background, for those who don't feel like figuring out what happened. Bumatlarge had just claimed to be part of the town aligned circle of blues, who all knew each other and each other's alignment, in a bid to gain mayorship, no one counterclaimed him, which basically meant he was confirmed town, and a dt to boot. Kavdragon, a member of wiggle's third party team was also vying for the mayorship. Now read the post. + Show Spoiler +On March 25 2011 05:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Ok, so here's my thoughts on the mayorship:
For me, this is really between Kav and bum.
At the moment, I'm trying to figure out how much I want to trust bum's blue claim. So far, he is uncontested, which possibly bodes well for him being a true blue. However, as others have stated, and I've been considering, there is still the possibility of his being scum, even with no counterclaim. It really comes down to the likelihood of Blues wanting to make a 1-1 trade so early in the game, and before roles have even been given. I am assuming, since everyone will have a power, that blues will be much stronger than greens. There is also a disparity between the number of powerful town roles (Blues) and scum in this game, and while I personally feel analysis is a far stronger tool, most of the TL towns I've been in have been reverent of Blue's power, often to the point of reliance (Eg: XXXV). So just applying metagame, it seems unusual a blue would be willing to put himself out there so quickly and prominently.
I see this either as a power move by the blues (as most people are assuming), or as a cunning play by scum. A lot of my suspicion comes from timing. Bum claimed before night 0 is over, and I would have trusted it a lot more if it was on Day 1, as he would have his role already. For example, bum could be scum, but conceivably a blue wouldn't bother to contest him until they get their roles, so they can use the weakest combination of role/player on their team to out him, which makes it harder for them, considering the amount of time bum has been uncontested, which can also be used for a WIFOM argument from him.
Kav on the other hand, has no real assurances that he is not scum. So far, his posting has seemed pro-town, but he hasn't really expounded on any of his views besides that he wants to stay alive to analyze and direct the town. I've had first-hand experience with him as mayor, working closely with him in XXXVI, so I know that he is a very capable and active player. Before I'd vote for him though, I'd need to hear more about what he'd do Day 1 lynch, and what other things he'd try to do with his longevity.
So, in short, I feel both Bum and Kav would make good mayors. Kav based on personal experience with him, and Bum on the condition of being blue. I'm still trying to evaluate the likelihood of a Night 0 blue claim though, because I really don't like the timing, and would like to see if there are counterclaims Day 1. Hopefully if Bum isn't blue, someone would eventually counterclaim, because blues wouldn't want to let scum become mayor. I also don't think the lack of Night 0 counterclaims really strengthens his claim in any way, because as I've said, blues probably wouldn't counterclaim until Day 1 anyways, when they can make a much better choice of counterclaiming player. Notice one thing, the obvious fact was that bum *had* to be a blue, else the blue faction would have conterclaimed. However third party wiggles isn't afraid to push a anti-town agenda to further his own team. 3rd party wiggles isn't afraid to push his own plans, against the town. Also notice how a third party wiggles is really good at ending his post with dodging responsibility, his whole post casts doubts on bum, yet at the end of the post he backs down, while still supporting his agenda of getting his buddy elected. Lets compare that to his first post this game where wiggles, pushes a anti-town agenda and at the end backs down to dodge responsibility. The similarity between these two posts is... stunning. For the sake of fairness lets look at what Wiggle's normal town play looks like, with a post from BCs Arkham Asylum, where wiggles was Zsasz a vigilante. + Show Spoiler +On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Ok, so let's get this started! First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines. A pro-town atmosphereThis normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things: - Promoting scum hunting.
- Not having pointless arguments
- Actively contributing
- All that jazz
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important. We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum. Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia. Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk. CluesThere's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUST MUST MUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum. Third PartiesLooking at the third parties, here's what we want: -We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition. This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game. If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game?
If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game?Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling. Lets look at the key differences between this type of early game post and wiggle's post in this game. What does it talk about? It talks about catching scum, about things that are relevant to the main objective, defeating the mafia. What does it do that the other post doesn't? 1.) It gives concrete, powerful advice about things that need to be said, and things that are important to avoding chaos. Is that even mentioned in his post here? Of course not, this game, he could care less about a good scum-hunting atmosphere, since all he has to do is *appear* town, the actual atmosphere is irrelevant, since if he can't find mafia he'll fabricate a case. The post from arkham is attempting to be helpful 2.)This post owns up to what it is trying to do, that is lead and organize the town, with no excuses made for it. Wiggles shows no hesitation, no "well, actually its ok if you bicker, that might help hunt scum too" in this post wiggles owns up to his post. there is no hesitation, just ownership 3.) He doesn't focus excessively on one topic he talks about a bunch of different things. He reveals his mind is not focused around a particular target, he covers everything unlike his post this game that focuses on the two elements that he is most focused on. Wiggle's meta fits perfectly with the way third party wiggle plays, pushing his objectives while backtracking so it looks like he isn't. It looks nothing like his town meta, where he doesn't have a single minded focus, and actually owns up to his posts, while trying to propose things that are actually helpful, rather than a objectivity bad plan. Sorry Jackal, but your meta read is wrong, Wiggles is a Horror, without a shadow of doubt. There's a few glaring problems in this post about meta as well. In Insane 2, I was NOT a third party. Though it is entitled third party, the faction was more equivalent to a second mafia family, with a full roster of 4 players, PM rights, and equivalent abilities. Thus, that post is a bad example of trying to find something to compare when talking about third parties. The only games I have played as true third party, were the ones as Assassin, and as Serial Killer, which you dismiss in an attempt to try to find a post that better matches the one I made in this game, in which I am more akin to mafia, than a true third party. Lol, awesome try here, nice effort, but you were a bulletproof faction that couldn't win if the mafia won. Much like the EH is a bulletproof person who can't win if the mafia wins. Yes, I discarded survivor, because it was frankly a crappy game, although if you push me I will go back and find your "clue analysis" from that game in which you *also* demonstrate the backing off trait
As well, you do not take context into the quote you pulled from AA. In that game, nearly a third of the player base was completely new, with either 1 or no games played previously. Thus, a post such as that is necessary to give direction and promote a good atmosphere with newer players. This town is mostly made up of experienced players, so there isn't really a need to provide a generic post, because everyone should be experienced enough to realize what they need to do without having the same post regurgitated at the beginning of every game. So, instead of wasting time talking about things people should have learned after a couple games, I am able to jump straight into talking about the set-up. Here we continue to misinterpret what I am saying,I'm not saying you need to post generic advice, but you need to discuss things of relevance or usefulness. not a plan so bad scum can happily sheep with the "its so awful" crowd. Your plan is like when people choose to discuss what blues should do in vague terms "medics should protect pro-town players". This allows scum to blend in. Again, you know better. Also the thrust of my "meta" argument is that you back off and deny responsibility for your ideas as third party but not as town. Compare the two posts, not a single word of doubt in the town one, a "both candidates... etc, etc" in the second. And then compare the one in this game "its a bad plan, also you might think about bread crumbing, not that I am going to take a stance on that mind you"
Meta is normally a very weak argument to make against someone, and the fact that you use incorrect meta that doesn't take context into example doesn't sit well with me either. But, since you seem to love it so much, then you should be aware that if I'm called scum on Day 1, then I'm town, and if I'm not, then I'm mafia. This has been true for maybe the last 10 normal games I've played. As well, your case against me seems eerily similar to Drazerk's and Ghrur's from AA, calling me third party, because I deigned to discuss the third parties. I'm not going to rehash everything I wrote in that game in response, but I'll link their analysis so you can see the similarities: Completely irrelevant post you attached here. Glad you included it. Shows nothing, and fails to disprove the points I'm making. Meta arguments aren't "weak", most people just fail at understanding how they work. If you've read Ver's guide, you would know this.+ Show Spoiler +On July 19 2011 12:09 ghrur wrote:Hello fellow mafia players! I see you've all been discussing SS quite a lot. Allow me to introduce another candidate for the lynch. 2 candidates are better than one, and it'd be even better if we could force the mafia to choose. Without further ado, here I go. VOTE WIGGLES Drazerk was the first one to nominate this candidate. His analysis is here. + Show Spoiler +On July 18 2011 21:13 Drazerk wrote:Time to actually go to work I guess. Let's start with our always scum fellow Mr. Wiggles shall we? Now we could say wiggles has a track record of being scum but the problem is his scum play has been pretty bland, In fact in RTM / WaW2 we was able to pick him out as scum just because of how little effort he puts in when being scum. Now when I read the thread this morning I was pretty much blown away by how much effort he was putting in, Its almost as if he did a 180 and is trying his best to not follow his scum meta by promoting a pro town atmosphere. + Show Spoiler +On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Ok, so let's get this started! First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines. A pro-town atmosphereThis normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things: - Promoting scum hunting.
- Not having pointless arguments
- Actively contributing
- All that jazz
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important. We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum. Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia. Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk. CluesThere's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUST MUST MUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum. Third PartiesLooking at the third parties, here's what we want: -We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition. This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game. If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game?
If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game?Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling. You will see a post like that at the start of every game, In fact it's pretty much one of the easiest ways to gain townie points as the post is pretty much common sense followed with some "weak" policies. Notice how wiggles keeps mentioning the third parties? + Show Spoiler +On July 18 2011 10:58 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 10:37 deconduo wrote:
I agree that Batman killing the Joker is the ideal situation. However I would regard all 3rd party, including Batman, as anti-town. They constitute 3 extra KP each night which results in a faster lylo and less DT checks and clues. If we catch one they should be lynched. None of this 'Keep me alive and I'll help town' crap.
Given the size of the game and the heavy activity requirement there will be a lot of reading to do. There will certainly be people attempting to just pass with the bare minimum of posts. These people should be scrutinised intensly, and lynched if any clues point towards them. Mhmm, if we catch them, we should lynch them. However, how can we catch them? The only ways I can see, are through just behavioural analysis, and also clue analysis. That's why I say, that if someone is acting like an SK, we might as well lynch them. However, SKs normally act like lurkers, or are scummy, from my experience. So, that means the batman should be shooting into lurkers and scummy people. On the flip-side though, Ra'al is going to be shooting into pro-town players, as Batman wants to try to look like a green, most likely. The priority is: joker>batman>ra'al Because killing up the chain, removes the players below. So, I guess you're right, that we should always kill third-parties, to remove their KP. However, the priority should be on the joker, as he will most likely appear scummiest, and also his death removes all third parties. The constant talk of game mechanics makes it seem like he is pro town when he is pretty much posting fluff at this point he just seems to want to enter lylo later when he has established himself as a town player. Shall we go into his other posts about game mechanics? + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On July 18 2011 11:01 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 10:57 redFF wrote:
If you clue analyse backing it up with some other form of analysis or evidence can help, but isn't necessary. If you see a clue don't be afraid to point it out.
Unless its like, x is a detective, then don't point it out lol. On the whole I think relying on clue analysis is pretty terrible though so i won't be basing any of my voting around some vague clue which could be pointing to 10 different people. Clue analysis can be strong, and also, newer players are sometimes easily swayed by it, because it seems like an "objective" form of scum-hunting. I'm saying, before pointing out any clues, look at the person who was killed, and the posting history of the player you think the clue is pointing to. For example, if they killed a mafia, and look super pro-town, what would be the possible benefits of pointing it out? However, if someone killed town, and look scummy, then make an actual analysis and then attach the perceived clue to it. No one should be lynched only on clues, and clues shouldn't just be looked at in a vacuum. On July 18 2011 11:06 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 11:02 CreamyButter wrote:Maybe it's because I only have 35 posts, but 5 posts a day seems like a hell of a lot, and I'm predicting a ton of spam/filler posts just to hit the minimum (I'm kind of freaking out about getting modkilled if I forget one evening lol). Maybe we should tag our posts like /analysis or /filler? Since I feel like if people are all forced to make 5 posts a day, there might be a lot of red herrings from tired townies who just want the day to end, and this way we can sort of manually adjust the posting minimum to like 3 "real" posts a day. Or 8 or whatever. @Curu Give me a sec to think about it. From what I understand the mafia just sort of chill, analyze/snipe blues, give confusing/chaos-inspiring analysis, and attempt to plant themselves into town circles. Not sure if there are any strategies that would be particular to this game yet, but will totally get back to you on that. Also I'm sure this is unintentional, but just to make sure, There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's a minimum, not a limit, right? Yeah, it's a minimum, I just used the word limit for some reason =/ If you are being active and playing the game, you shouldn't really have any problem making the 5 post minimum. For example, you already made 2 decent posts, and still have almost 70 hours to make the other three to avoid mod-kill. Also, filler should mostly be avoided if possible, as there are always other things to post besides useless stuff. For example, you can comment on other people's analysis, on the voting patterns or bandwagons that are going to appear, on how people are acting or trying to manipulate town, etc. There's lots to talk about. :p On July 18 2011 11:06 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 11:03 deconduo wrote:On July 18 2011 11:00 redFF wrote:
And regarding blacks I feel it is best to ignore them. Usually I don't really like lynching blacks, but since they all have 1kp a night and will be shooting into town I say if we find them we should be lynching them.
Im going to be treating all the black roles as serial killers. I disagree about ignoring them. Effort should definitely be made in finding and lynching them, especially the Joker and/or Batman. Agreed. Together the third party hold the same amount of KP as the entire mafia, and based on probability, are more like to kill town than mafia too. On July 18 2011 11:49 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 11:41 Curu wrote:
Just a lovely note to our lovely DTs out there:
Never check a man who is a very likely lynch. If you find a guilty, well he's getting killed anyways. If you find an innocent, then you shouldn't be outing yourself to save him anyways unless there are very few players left in the game. The Godfather/third parties also give innocent checks.
To our lovely Vigilantes:
Likewise, if someone is declared a policy lynch or something of that nature, it is far better to have our Vigilantes shoot them instead. The lynch process gives us no information when reds can easily bandwagon lynch someone. Remember that the lynch is a process for finding information and connections as well, not just a simple kill. Also, to add on to advice for DTs, especially as there are a lot of newer players present, always try to form a case around a player based on analysis if you get a guilty check. Do not just claim. Claiming early is never a good thing, as a 1-1 trade with mafia benefits them more than town. On July 18 2011 11:57 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 11:51 Zona wrote:
^
Well, a "1-1 trade" benefits town a TON more than the mafia, if the town is vanilla. But a DT trade for a mafia is a poor one. Oops, I might have screwed up the logic, haha. Been playing scum for too long. O.o Green for mafia is an awesome trade, as we outnumber the mafia. 1-1 with a DT isn't great early on, especially depending on who the scum is. For example, if you checked random lurker A and they returned red, try to get them shot or lynched, don't claim. Trading a DT for a red lurker isn't a very good trade, when we can get additional use out of the DT. Use your discretion, but I think making a push for a lynch based on analysis should be the first step taken, before any kind of claim. So essentially most of his posts are either about, The third parties or how to deal with clues. He has actually done little scum hunting which is a typical trait of his scum play. In my opinion Wiggles is trying very hard to not look like his regular scum meta by "Appearing" to put in effort but with the little scum hunting / FoSing from him he seems to have just concentrated on the mechanics side of the game (Basically fluff) and promote his "Town atmosphere" the best way he can. FoS on Wiggles ##Vote: Mr. Wiggles Now, while I have read it, I came to the conclusion of my own accord. I will most likely bring up similar points, but I shall try to add new material as well. First off, if you notice, Wiggles has not given up ANY information. His posts consist of general advice, "null tell" posts, defenses, and future promises. They all serve a purpose, if he were mafia. General advice makes him look town. Null tell is an easy way to write something off while seeming logical and townie. Defenses = I DON'T WANT TO GET LYNCHED. Future promises mean nothing except that he gets to hide his current information. What's lacking is a stance, a thought, a suspicion, anything concrete to show he's actually scum hunting. Mafia moves right here, gentlemen. Or, you know, SK moves. Now, if you were to look through wiggle's posts, you'll notice that in his very first discussion of mechanics/generalities, he goes in depth into third party thinking. He also seems to be promoting the bats. Notice: + Show Spoiler + So, that means the batman should be shooting into lurkers and scummy people. On the flip-side though, Ra'al is going to be shooting into pro-town players, as Batman wants to try to look like a green, most likely.
The priority is:
joker>batman>ra'al
Because killing up the chain, removes the players below.
So, I guess you're right, that we should always kill third-parties, to remove their KP. However, the priority should be on the joker, as he will most likely appear scummiest, and also his death removes all third parties. "So, I guess you're right" seems like a begrudging answer. He didn't want to admit it. "batman shooting into lurkers and scummy people" seems to be promoting the bats. Notice also how he's analyzed the likely behavior of theese characters already. This indicates a lot of thinking about these roles. This makes me inclined to believe he's Bats, or at least an SK. + Show Spoiler +based on probability, are more like to kill town than mafia too. My god. He's even thought about third party probabilities. I'm wondering if he means cost/benefit probabilities or just hey, 3/4th = town and less than 1/4th = mafia. :/ If only he specified. but then, that'd be too much info wouldn't it? Now, around 7/18 13:14 TL time, something interesting happens. Pyo softly pressures Wiggles. Wiggle's response? A paragraph, providing meta-game proof that his actions are a "null-tell." See here. + Show Spoiler +
Meh, it's a null-tell again. Examples, GM in Real-Time Mafia, Kavdragon in Pick Your Power Insane. Both making long posts trying to direct town at the beginning, both town. Also, if you think my post is spam, please point out how. If you read it, I specifically say I'm not going to write a general how to play town guide, just give a little bit of general advice against what's made town lose in about three of the last four games I've played, and then talked about how to use clues properly and that killing Joker is a high priority for town. It's not even that massive either, haha.
The problem here is that there was in no way ANY threat towards him. I would shrug it off. Why does it matter? I see this as over-defensive. An act of Mafia/SK. I called Curu out on something similar, and I'm calling Wiggles out on this now. Pyo continues accusing, but never voting, to put on pressure. Wiggles starts getting angsty, defensive, and even a bit upset I dare say. Notice the ad-homs coming out. + Show Spoiler +Are you sure about that? I'm starting to question if you read posts or just skim through them. There's no reason to do that at all. Name calling creates chaos and strife. We don't need that sort of atmosphere. I prefer logical to the emotional. I guess SKs/Mafia prefer different. That quote happened around 7/18 15:45. Wiggles doesn't post again until 7/19 2:16. Looking at the big picture of the day, Wiggles has done absolutely nothing. Generic advice and defense. Great. How useful. But he seems like town! No, no he doesn't. By the time Wiggles comes back, discussion has already taken place on new lynch candidates. New suspects. New post analyses to be done. Does Wiggles do any of that? No! He doesn't scum hunt! He jumps STRAIGHT to defending himself from Drazerk's accusation. Let's take a look. + Show Spoiler +
I'm gonna address the case against me pretty quickly, but basically I'm being accused of talking about game mechanics for the first two hours of the game, and not scumhunting. (Game started 10KST, last quoted post at 11:57KST). This accusation is true, but shouldn't mark me as scummy, given that it's pretty hard to scum hunt in the first two hours of the game, as most people have yet to post, or have very few posts. Mechanics are just a starting point to get people talking at the beginning of the game, as there is very little else to talk about. Scumhunting begins from there.
Notice, he says it's only 2 hours due to the last quoted post. Hahaha, he doesn't even try to give correct info. He had, in actuallity, 5 hours and 45 minutes worth of material to try and scum hunt off of, and THEN another 16 hours and 16 minutes of information to add in something with his defense. What does he do? He says he only had 2 hours. He LIED to strengthen his defense. Scum move, yes? The rest of his post talks about how the game started. Yeah, we all read that. That's not new information. Where's the scum hunting wiggles? Palmar calls him out on this. Palmar even stated there was no threat, and Wiggles didn't even need to defend. Oh, but defend he did. Just like earlier, with Pyo, he jumps on the defense and never attacks. He hints at attacks, like at Palmar (saying Palmar bandwagons) and SS (agreeing with Curu that SS lied), but he gives no analysis and he does not VOTE. HE'S NOT VOTING! He says Palmar is contradictory, and SS seems really suspicious and contradicted himself, yet he votes for neither. WHY? Because he doesn't want to commit to anything. No votes, no trails. Just soft hints. He's afraid to be wrong, to stick his head out, to provide information. Now, here's Wiggle's latest post. + Show Spoiler +
I can do clue analysis if you want. The only problem with your plan though, is that the clues only point to specific mafia, not all of them, so there won't always be clue analysis available for each lynch. A lack of clue analysis is not absolving.
Look. Once again he wants to do something without doing anything. Clue analysis doesn't need to point to anyone. It'll be vague. It'll be part of a team. You'll hide your opinion. It's IN THE FUTURE. Once again, this is not scum hunting. This is not taking a stance. This is being as unhelpful and uninformative as possible. Scum/SK play. So, after Wiggles stated that "there's a lot to talk about," that "he's re-reading the thread and taking notes on players," and that "we should keep a pro-town atmosphere," he has done none of those things. What a contradiction. I guess he's right that "scumhunting doesn't magically appear," especially not from scum. Join me, and vote Wiggles. Let's break up the bandwagons. Let's force him to take a stance. Let's force Mafia's hand and get them out amongst the townies. Most of all, let's lynch this killer. ##Vote Mr.Wiggles
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@Ferryman
Ok, here's a question for you: "As the horror, what purpose does that post serve, as compared to not posting it at all?".
You say that it's to put forward a plan that some idiotic Towny will use reverse psychology on in order to claim psychologist on day one. However, I'd disagree, because I wasn't pushing the plan and instead called it bad in my own post, baiting for someone to try to argue against me.
So, then is it to establish myself as a townie with the first strong post of the game? You say that the horror will optimally try to establish himself as being very town, in order to dodge the lynch. I disagree with this again, though. By acting pro-town, the horror increases the chance that the mafia will visit him, because pro-town and active players are one of the highest hit priorities for mafia. The horror can't fake medic protection, since when mafia visit him, he kills the person he visits as well. Mafia will know as soon as they visit him the he's the horror, due to the redirection in KP, unless the Horror manages to stack on a mafia hit. Even then, it's not as good for him, because as medics die, or claim, it will become apparent that he was never protected. If mafia know who he is, they will make a case against him (which will necessarily be strong because they know they're correct), which is a bad thing for the horror.
As I see it, optimal strategy for the horror is to avoid being hit for as long as he can without becoming too big of a lynch target. This means somewhat lurking or simply trying to blend in on Day 1 and maybe 2, to avoid early hits, before increasing his contributions on later days to stop from becoming a lynch target, hopefully far enough along that he can secure his victory before being shot.
Acting as I was (before I was the target of analysis), actually goes against what I see as optimal horror play, as being active and trying to promote discussion is inherently pro-town (Or at least appears that way, as you say), and so increases my chances of being shot, on top of being one of the more veteran players. A better strategy would to be to lurk through Day 1, to avoid a hit, as the only reason for a hit in that scenario would be veteran status, which I believe is lower in priority than actual active and contributory townies.
@Tnkted
Can you explain why you think Palmar is scummy better? You seem convinced that you have a strong case, but I'm not liking your repetition of "It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.", as a mislynch is always bad for town. You seem to be downplaying the significance of it, such that you can seem convinced that you're correct, but if you're wrong, you don't take responsibility for it, since it's "only day 1, so no biggie".
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On August 24 2011 10:32 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
@Ferryman
Ok, here's a question for you: "As the horror, what purpose does that post serve, as compared to not posting it at all?".
You say that it's to put forward a plan that some idiotic Towny will use reverse psychology on in order to claim psychologist on day one. However, I'd disagree, because I wasn't pushing the plan and instead called it bad in my own post, baiting for someone to try to argue against me.
So, then is it to establish myself as a townie with the first strong post of the game? You say that the horror will optimally try to establish himself as being very town, in order to dodge the lynch. I disagree with this again, though. By acting pro-town, the horror increases the chance that the mafia will visit him, because pro-town and active players are one of the highest hit priorities for mafia. The horror can't fake medic protection, since when mafia visit him, he kills the person he visits as well. Mafia will know as soon as they visit him the he's the horror, due to the redirection in KP, unless the Horror manages to stack on a mafia hit. Even then, it's not as good for him, because as medics die, or claim, it will become apparent that he was never protected. If mafia know who he is, they will make a case against him (which will necessarily be strong because they know they're correct), which is a bad thing for the horror.
As I see it, optimal strategy for the horror is to avoid being hit for as long as he can without becoming too big of a lynch target. This means somewhat lurking or simply trying to blend in on Day 1 and maybe 2, to avoid early hits, before increasing his contributions on later days to stop from becoming a lynch target, hopefully far enough along that he can secure his victory before being shot.
Acting as I was (before I was the target of analysis), actually goes against what I see as optimal horror play, as being active and trying to promote discussion is inherently pro-town (Or at least appears that way, as you say), and so increases my chances of being shot, on top of being one of the more veteran players. A better strategy would to be to lurk through Day 1, to avoid a hit, as the only reason for a hit in that scenario would be veteran status, which I believe is lower in priority than actual active and contributory townies.
@Tnkted
Can you explain why you think Palmar is scummy better? You seem convinced that you have a strong case, but I'm not liking your repetition of "It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.", as a mislynch is always bad for town. You seem to be downplaying the significance of it, such that you can seem convinced that you're correct, but if you're wrong, you don't take responsibility for it, since it's "only day 1, so no biggie".
I fully disagree with your perception of how the horror should be playing. Amongst other things, the mafia won't make too much of an effort to make a case against the horror. You see, the mafia might go out of his way to make sure they lynch him, but they might not, as getting him lynched doesn't help as much as killing a townie. That is, for the EH doesn't count as a townie for the mafia's outnumbering condition, so killing him (especially since he sabotages the medic) is a worse play than getting a townie lynched.
I am not going to argue with you anymore, however, I made my stance crystal clear, anyone who wants to read it can see it and decide, arguing with you is now only going to serve to clutter up the thread.
On palmar, I fully agree with wiggles, that case is really floppy, and lynching on "scumtells" because its "only day 1, a mislynch is expected" is bad play. Make a more convincing case please.
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I hate meta arguments, and I hate lynching people for "scumslips" (being someone who helped mislynch someone for a supposed scumslip) so I'm just gonna throw in that I don't think that there's really a case to be made against either Wiggles or Palmar, also I have to agree with Wiggles on smart EA play, I was thinking about this before this whole fight and I can't see how the EA get's around the whole mafia knowing who he is if they ever take a shot at him thing, even if they don't make it priority number one they still want to win and will get around to tunneling him for a lynch eventually and that's very bad for the EA. I also think that Wiggles would have thought this through and arrived at a similar conclusion which would make most of Ferryman's case not work.
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On August 24 2011 11:08 Navillus wrote:
I hate meta arguments, and I hate lynching people for "scumslips" (being someone who helped mislynch someone for a supposed scumslip) so I'm just gonna throw in that I don't think that there's really a case to be made against either Wiggles or Palmar, also I have to agree with Wiggles on smart EA play, I was thinking about this before this whole fight and I can't see how the EA get's around the whole mafia knowing who he is if they ever take a shot at him thing, even if they don't make it priority number one they still want to win and will get around to tunneling him for a lynch eventually and that's very bad for the EA. I also think that Wiggles would have thought this through and arrived at a similar conclusion which would make most of Ferryman's case not work.
Mafia don't have to kill the horror to win, just outnumber the remaining town. Thus lynching town is >>>>> than lynching the horror for them, since its one night less they have to use. As long as the psychologist is in play the mafia have no reason to care about the horror, at all.
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Two questions.
When the EH wins does the game immediately end? or is a joint victory possible.
Is the EH considered a "threat to the town" for the purposes of the town wincondition
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I haven't got time to devote to proper posting tonight. I've skimmed through everything so far, and I'm glad to see that the spam has cut down and we've got good discussion going.
My initial thoughts:
1. Palmar probably isn't scum. The case against him is claiming that a joke response was a scum slip.
2. People pushing for lynching Palmar based on the above are dumb or scum. If they've got a good reason (haven't seen any so far) then it's not suspicious.
3. tnkted is probably scum
4. Ferryman, you've got a great case on wiggles, but with one problem. You designed that case to prove that he's the EA. What you should be doing is analyzing and then figuring out what he is. Because it was the cause and not the effect, I'm not yet convinced by it.
I'll get something more detailed up tomorrow morning.
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On August 24 2011 09:45 tnkted wrote:
Ferryman, if you are new, then welcome to mafia! You have a bright future here, and if you're town mafia will probably want to hit you n1.
In this case though, I think you might be right but lynching palmar is a better move here. Sir Jesse Wiggles ESQ (duke of yorkshire) is a notoriously difficult person to read at the best of times because he plays so close to the chest, and I've written my share of analysis on him and been wrong every time.
That being said, your evidence makes a lot of sense, and if we don't have any other leads tomorrow I'd be totally happy gettin' wiggy wit' it. But right now, palmar is a better lynch because
A) His response to the FOS has been very scummy
B) The slip thing I mentioned earlier
C) It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.
Keep your eye on Wiggles and if you find anything else we'll act on it. For now though, Palmar is scummier than wiggles and I'd rather lynch him,
Just some advice: the first post you posted felt to me like more of a pressure post (ie it wasn't very convincing) but the second one (the meta one) was much more convincing (wiggles rather comprehensive response notwithstanding).
Anyone pushing the idea that day 1 lynches are a crapshots is stupid.
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On August 24 2011 17:46 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 09:45 tnkted wrote:
Ferryman, if you are new, then welcome to mafia! You have a bright future here, and if you're town mafia will probably want to hit you n1.
In this case though, I think you might be right but lynching palmar is a better move here. Sir Jesse Wiggles ESQ (duke of yorkshire) is a notoriously difficult person to read at the best of times because he plays so close to the chest, and I've written my share of analysis on him and been wrong every time.
That being said, your evidence makes a lot of sense, and if we don't have any other leads tomorrow I'd be totally happy gettin' wiggy wit' it. But right now, palmar is a better lynch because
A) His response to the FOS has been very scummy
B) The slip thing I mentioned earlier
C) It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.
Keep your eye on Wiggles and if you find anything else we'll act on it. For now though, Palmar is scummier than wiggles and I'd rather lynch him,
Just some advice: the first post you posted felt to me like more of a pressure post (ie it wasn't very convincing) but the second one (the meta one) was much more convincing (wiggles rather comprehensive response notwithstanding). Anyone pushing the idea that day 1 lynches are a crapshots is stupid.
Or Scum?
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Erandorr, since you're around right now, what do you think of tnkted?
Was his accusation of Palmar warranted, and does the logic behind it make sense to you?
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##extension
If you guys are up for it I want a bit more time to read this thread, pretty busy with xliv atm.
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It's a 48 hour day cycle, isn't it? That's what the OP states.
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On August 23 2011 23:45 Hesmyrr wrote:
The deadline ends at August 25 2011 23:45 KST
And this. We've got another day still.
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##extension
Same reason as palmar, also town should want more time to discuss right?
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The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror.
It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that.
I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror
That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.
I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so
##Unvote
Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think?
I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go
##Vote: TheFerryman
Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.
Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.
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derp, sorry, I am a day too early with the extension.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/jmQZg.gif)
