I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
I thought so too but in the stats Miz posted Rogues ZvP map winrate offline vs koreans is only 1.3% lower than Serrals
But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
Rogue's stats in general were never that impressive. It was his results that were
It was almost impossible to imagine Rogue losing a ZvP when it mattered. For the few years before his championships he was a ZvP sniper in Proleague, always taking ace matches for JinAir whenever they knew opponents would field a protoss. And most notable results in individual leagues were knocking legendary protoss players like Rain or Zest out of big tournaments. He also had a much deeper bag of builds than Serral ever did. He would sometimes win ZvP bo5s by nydus worm every game
His legendary finals stats consist of beating herO, Zest, Classic, Stats, Trap, soO, and Maru. You could probably attribute Rogue to be responsible for the drought in protoss championships from 2017 onwards. (Well, at least until every protoss retired)
Look at the multiple Katowice's where Serral lost to Classic and Zest only for them to get annihilated 4-0 by Rogue. Serral has better fundamentals and is more consistent, I'll agree with that. But Rogue just didn't lose to protoss when the stakes were high.
But this is just conflating him being great at ZvP with him being great at finals. Rogue demolished everyone in finals. It happened that they were mostly tosses, but considering his overall ZvP, it seems clear that was more just being great at finals than anything unique in ZvP.
And uh your "deep bag of builds" is my imbalanced nydus worm and swarmhost strats. Not impressed. To be honest, to the extent anyone wants to diminish modern results based on balance, Rogue should be the #1 victim of that. Guy was abusive as all heck.
They were almost all tosses he demolished in finals. Tosses that bested all the other zergs to get there
I agree he abused balance more than anyone else. But he did what Serral couldn't in terms of aggressive builds and variety. You think Serral didn't nydus or proxy hatch Classic and Zest because of honour or something? No, it's because he didn't have the bag of builds Rogue did. Rogue also beat them both in split maps in the same series, it's not like he was cheese only, he had the biggest bag of any zerg player.
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
I thought so too but in the stats Miz posted Rogues ZvP map winrate offline vs koreans is only 1.3% lower than Serrals
But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
Rogue's stats in general were never that impressive. It was his results that were
It was almost impossible to imagine Rogue losing a ZvP when it mattered. For the few years before his championships he was a ZvP sniper in Proleague, always taking ace matches for JinAir whenever they knew opponents would field a protoss. And most notable results in individual leagues were knocking legendary protoss players like Rain or Zest out of big tournaments. He also had a much deeper bag of builds than Serral ever did. He would sometimes win ZvP bo5s by nydus worm every game
His legendary finals stats consist of beating herO, Zest, Classic, Stats, Trap, soO, and Maru. You could probably attribute Rogue to be responsible for the drought in protoss championships from 2017 onwards. (Well, at least until every protoss retired)
Look at the multiple Katowice's where Serral lost to Classic and Zest only for them to get annihilated 4-0 by Rogue. Serral has better fundamentals and is more consistent, I'll agree with that. But Rogue just didn't lose to protoss when the stakes were high.
But this is just conflating him being great at ZvP with him being great at finals. Rogue demolished everyone in finals. It happened that they were mostly tosses, but considering his overall ZvP, it seems clear that was more just being great at finals than anything unique in ZvP.
And uh your "deep bag of builds" is my imbalanced nydus worm and swarmhost strats. Not impressed. To be honest, to the extent anyone wants to diminish modern results based on balance, Rogue should be the #1 victim of that. Guy was abusive as all heck.
That doesn't make any sense. Everyone playing a race has the same tools at their disposal. You don't punish player A disproportionally more than player B because of the way he chose to use the tools.
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
I thought so too but in the stats Miz posted Rogues ZvP map winrate offline vs koreans is only 1.3% lower than Serrals
But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
Rogue's stats in general were never that impressive. It was his results that were
It was almost impossible to imagine Rogue losing a ZvP when it mattered. For the few years before his championships he was a ZvP sniper in Proleague, always taking ace matches for JinAir whenever they knew opponents would field a protoss. And most notable results in individual leagues were knocking legendary protoss players like Rain or Zest out of big tournaments. He also had a much deeper bag of builds than Serral ever did. He would sometimes win ZvP bo5s by nydus worm every game
His legendary finals stats consist of beating herO, Zest, Classic, Stats, Trap, soO, and Maru. You could probably attribute Rogue to be responsible for the drought in protoss championships from 2017 onwards. (Well, at least until every protoss retired)
Look at the multiple Katowice's where Serral lost to Classic and Zest only for them to get annihilated 4-0 by Rogue. Serral has better fundamentals and is more consistent, I'll agree with that. But Rogue just didn't lose to protoss when the stakes were high.
But this is just conflating him being great at ZvP with him being great at finals. Rogue demolished everyone in finals. It happened that they were mostly tosses, but considering his overall ZvP, it seems clear that was more just being great at finals than anything unique in ZvP.
And uh your "deep bag of builds" is my imbalanced nydus worm and swarmhost strats. Not impressed. To be honest, to the extent anyone wants to diminish modern results based on balance, Rogue should be the #1 victim of that. Guy was abusive as all heck.
That doesn't make any sense. Everyone playing a race has the same tools at their disposal. You don't punish player A disproportionally more than player B because of the way he chose to use the tools.
I didn't say that I was necessarily subscribing to that philosophy. But I think it's completely fair that if (1) you think Zerg was broken because of, for instance, invulnerable nyduses and swarm host ZvP; and (2) you want to discount a player's legacy because a race was OP, then (3) you should discredit a player who actually abused the imbalance more than someone who did not.
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
Rogue's stats in general were never that impressive. It was his results that were
It was almost impossible to imagine Rogue losing a ZvP when it mattered. For the few years before his championships he was a ZvP sniper in Proleague, always taking ace matches for JinAir whenever they knew opponents would field a protoss. And most notable results in individual leagues were knocking legendary protoss players like Rain or Zest out of big tournaments. He also had a much deeper bag of builds than Serral ever did. He would sometimes win ZvP bo5s by nydus worm every game
His legendary finals stats consist of beating herO, Zest, Classic, Stats, Trap, soO, and Maru. You could probably attribute Rogue to be responsible for the drought in protoss championships from 2017 onwards. (Well, at least until every protoss retired)
Look at the multiple Katowice's where Serral lost to Classic and Zest only for them to get annihilated 4-0 by Rogue. Serral has better fundamentals and is more consistent, I'll agree with that. But Rogue just didn't lose to protoss when the stakes were high.
But this is just conflating him being great at ZvP with him being great at finals. Rogue demolished everyone in finals. It happened that they were mostly tosses, but considering his overall ZvP, it seems clear that was more just being great at finals than anything unique in ZvP.
And uh your "deep bag of builds" is my imbalanced nydus worm and swarmhost strats. Not impressed. To be honest, to the extent anyone wants to diminish modern results based on balance, Rogue should be the #1 victim of that. Guy was abusive as all heck.
That doesn't make any sense. Everyone playing a race has the same tools at their disposal. You don't punish player A disproportionally more than player B because of the way he chose to use the tools.
I didn't say that I was necessarily subscribing to that philosophy. But I think it's completely fair that if (1) you think Zerg was broken because of, for instance, invulnerable nyduses and swarm host ZvP; and (2) you want to discount a player's legacy because a race was OP, then (3) you should discredit a player who actually abused the imbalance more than someone who did not.
Surely you have to admit even if you don't use the op strategy, the builds being in the game will impact your opponents builds and strategies. Therefore every single zerg got the advantage even if they couldn't necessarily execute it
Hardly remarkable. Sure, mostly not sub 50%. But barely greater than it.
On February 28 2024 00:33 Charoisaur wrote:
On February 28 2024 00:11 Pandain wrote:
On February 27 2024 23:43 Fango wrote:
On February 27 2024 23:18 Pandain wrote:
On February 27 2024 23:06 Fango wrote:
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
Rogue's stats in general were never that impressive. It was his results that were
It was almost impossible to imagine Rogue losing a ZvP when it mattered. For the few years before his championships he was a ZvP sniper in Proleague, always taking ace matches for JinAir whenever they knew opponents would field a protoss. And most notable results in individual leagues were knocking legendary protoss players like Rain or Zest out of big tournaments. He also had a much deeper bag of builds than Serral ever did. He would sometimes win ZvP bo5s by nydus worm every game
His legendary finals stats consist of beating herO, Zest, Classic, Stats, Trap, soO, and Maru. You could probably attribute Rogue to be responsible for the drought in protoss championships from 2017 onwards. (Well, at least until every protoss retired)
Look at the multiple Katowice's where Serral lost to Classic and Zest only for them to get annihilated 4-0 by Rogue. Serral has better fundamentals and is more consistent, I'll agree with that. But Rogue just didn't lose to protoss when the stakes were high.
But this is just conflating him being great at ZvP with him being great at finals. Rogue demolished everyone in finals. It happened that they were mostly tosses, but considering his overall ZvP, it seems clear that was more just being great at finals than anything unique in ZvP.
And uh your "deep bag of builds" is my imbalanced nydus worm and swarmhost strats. Not impressed. To be honest, to the extent anyone wants to diminish modern results based on balance, Rogue should be the #1 victim of that. Guy was abusive as all heck.
That doesn't make any sense. Everyone playing a race has the same tools at their disposal. You don't punish player A disproportionally more than player B because of the way he chose to use the tools.
I didn't say that I was necessarily subscribing to that philosophy. But I think it's completely fair that if (1) you think Zerg was broken because of, for instance, invulnerable nyduses and swarm host ZvP; and (2) you want to discount a player's legacy because a race was OP, then (3) you should discredit a player who actually abused the imbalance more than someone who did not.
Surely you have to admit even if you don't use the op strategy, the builds being in the game will impact your opponents builds and strategies. Therefore every single zerg got the advantage even if they couldn't necessarily execute it
I completely agree every player of a race balances from imbalance even if they don't actively use the imbalanced strat, for the reasons you mentioned. But my point is a narrow one: you should discredit a player's achievements more who actually used the imbalanced strats, even if you also discredit to some extent other players of the same race who did not.
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
I thought so too but in the stats Miz posted Rogues ZvP map winrate offline vs koreans is only 1.3% lower than Serrals
But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
On February 28 2024 00:45 Regisko wrote: I can't accept any result except of Life being top-3 (probably 2nd), and Serral being outside top-3.
Then you can skip the rest of this list. Not only did Mizenhauer on multiple occasion state that Life won't be on it, but there is a 100% guarantee that Serral will atleast be in the Top 2. Even if you somehow think he isn't in the Top 3, not putting him in the Top 10 would be almost as ridiculous as thinking a convicted cheater should even be in the discussion of being the GREATEST (not best) of All Time.
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
I thought so too but in the stats Miz posted Rogues ZvP map winrate offline vs koreans is only 1.3% lower than Serrals
But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
One can have a little scroll, under those filters I mentioned.
It’s abundantly clear that Rogue is absolutely an elite ZvPer, Serral’s numbers are still better.
There are guys in that span that Rogue played, JYP, Billowy, latter day MC. Two guys even me who lists his official residence as Team Liquid haven’t heard of in Dandy and Yeri. A guy called YB who Rogue actually lost to.
Serral’s list isn’t exclusively absolute elite Korean Toss players who were all in peak form either, don’t get me wrong but it’s about as close as you can realistically get.
Hardly remarkable. Sure, mostly not sub 50%. But barely greater than it.
On February 28 2024 00:33 Charoisaur wrote:
On February 28 2024 00:11 Pandain wrote:
On February 27 2024 23:43 Fango wrote:
On February 27 2024 23:18 Pandain wrote:
On February 27 2024 23:06 Fango wrote:
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
Rogue's stats in general were never that impressive. It was his results that were
It was almost impossible to imagine Rogue losing a ZvP when it mattered. For the few years before his championships he was a ZvP sniper in Proleague, always taking ace matches for JinAir whenever they knew opponents would field a protoss. And most notable results in individual leagues were knocking legendary protoss players like Rain or Zest out of big tournaments. He also had a much deeper bag of builds than Serral ever did. He would sometimes win ZvP bo5s by nydus worm every game
His legendary finals stats consist of beating herO, Zest, Classic, Stats, Trap, soO, and Maru. You could probably attribute Rogue to be responsible for the drought in protoss championships from 2017 onwards. (Well, at least until every protoss retired)
Look at the multiple Katowice's where Serral lost to Classic and Zest only for them to get annihilated 4-0 by Rogue. Serral has better fundamentals and is more consistent, I'll agree with that. But Rogue just didn't lose to protoss when the stakes were high.
But this is just conflating him being great at ZvP with him being great at finals. Rogue demolished everyone in finals. It happened that they were mostly tosses, but considering his overall ZvP, it seems clear that was more just being great at finals than anything unique in ZvP.
And uh your "deep bag of builds" is my imbalanced nydus worm and swarmhost strats. Not impressed. To be honest, to the extent anyone wants to diminish modern results based on balance, Rogue should be the #1 victim of that. Guy was abusive as all heck.
That doesn't make any sense. Everyone playing a race has the same tools at their disposal. You don't punish player A disproportionally more than player B because of the way he chose to use the tools.
I didn't say that I was necessarily subscribing to that philosophy. But I think it's completely fair that if (1) you think Zerg was broken because of, for instance, invulnerable nyduses and swarm host ZvP; and (2) you want to discount a player's legacy because a race was OP, then (3) you should discredit a player who actually abused the imbalance more than someone who did not.
Surely you have to admit even if you don't use the op strategy, the builds being in the game will impact your opponents builds and strategies. Therefore every single zerg got the advantage even if they couldn't necessarily execute it
I completely agree every player of a race balances from imbalance even if they don't actively use the imbalanced strat, for the reasons you mentioned. But my point is a narrow one: you should discredit a player's achievements more who actually used the imbalanced strats, even if you also discredit to some extent other players of the same race who did not.
I guess we just disagree. If someone all ind with zerg during bl/infestor and won tournaments because most of their opponents were greeding up to combat bl/infestor, to me it's the same as just bl/infestoring people in terms of balance abuse.
On February 28 2024 00:50 Pandain wrote: I didn't say that I was necessarily subscribing to that philosophy. But I think it's completely fair that if (1) you think Zerg was broken because of, for instance, invulnerable nyduses and swarm host ZvP; and (2) you want to discount a player's legacy because a race was OP, then (3) you should discredit a player who actually abused the imbalance more than someone who did not.
Serral abused zerg as well. He just didn't find any success with the cheesier aspect of it. Lingbane hydra was imba, nydus was imba, dropperlord rushes were imba, BL/Infestor was imba, swarm hosts were imba, hell Rogue even made proxy hatches and 6/12 pool look imba. The difference is that Serral couldn't pull off half of them, or perhaps lacked Rogue's ability to know when they would work. Do you really prefer Serral's perfect macro and stats when he lost in World Championships to protoss players who go on to get 4-0'd by Rogue?
As for the stats, Rogue played against his fellow Koreans far more than Serral did. From 2017 onwards, 370 matches to Serral's less than 100. Of course the numbers skew towards 50%. If Serral played Koreans 4x as much, his stats would skew as well (or maybe not if he's truly inhuman)
Most of those online events were no more important to Rogue as ladder games probably were. That's why adjusting for offline tournaments is important. Even if there were a few big events in 2021 that were online, it's better to exclude them than to including every ESL weekly that happened
But even then, Rogue's winrates aren't what give him top 3 GOAT status, it's his trophy collection and winrate's in finals. Almost all of which came against protoss. I think its reasonable to say a top 3 GOAT candidate who's wins almost all came from one matchup was maybe the best at that matchup. Add to that his history as the best ZvP sniper in proleague, winning famous ace matches against herO, Zest etc when they were the reigning Starleague champions.
Hardly remarkable. Sure, mostly not sub 50%. But barely greater than it.
On February 28 2024 00:33 Charoisaur wrote:
On February 28 2024 00:11 Pandain wrote:
On February 27 2024 23:43 Fango wrote:
On February 27 2024 23:18 Pandain wrote:
On February 27 2024 23:06 Fango wrote:
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
Rogue's stats in general were never that impressive. It was his results that were
It was almost impossible to imagine Rogue losing a ZvP when it mattered. For the few years before his championships he was a ZvP sniper in Proleague, always taking ace matches for JinAir whenever they knew opponents would field a protoss. And most notable results in individual leagues were knocking legendary protoss players like Rain or Zest out of big tournaments. He also had a much deeper bag of builds than Serral ever did. He would sometimes win ZvP bo5s by nydus worm every game
His legendary finals stats consist of beating herO, Zest, Classic, Stats, Trap, soO, and Maru. You could probably attribute Rogue to be responsible for the drought in protoss championships from 2017 onwards. (Well, at least until every protoss retired)
Look at the multiple Katowice's where Serral lost to Classic and Zest only for them to get annihilated 4-0 by Rogue. Serral has better fundamentals and is more consistent, I'll agree with that. But Rogue just didn't lose to protoss when the stakes were high.
But this is just conflating him being great at ZvP with him being great at finals. Rogue demolished everyone in finals. It happened that they were mostly tosses, but considering his overall ZvP, it seems clear that was more just being great at finals than anything unique in ZvP.
And uh your "deep bag of builds" is my imbalanced nydus worm and swarmhost strats. Not impressed. To be honest, to the extent anyone wants to diminish modern results based on balance, Rogue should be the #1 victim of that. Guy was abusive as all heck.
That doesn't make any sense. Everyone playing a race has the same tools at their disposal. You don't punish player A disproportionally more than player B because of the way he chose to use the tools.
I didn't say that I was necessarily subscribing to that philosophy. But I think it's completely fair that if (1) you think Zerg was broken because of, for instance, invulnerable nyduses and swarm host ZvP; and (2) you want to discount a player's legacy because a race was OP, then (3) you should discredit a player who actually abused the imbalance more than someone who did not.
Surely you have to admit even if you don't use the op strategy, the builds being in the game will impact your opponents builds and strategies. Therefore every single zerg got the advantage even if they couldn't necessarily execute it
I completely agree every player of a race balances from imbalance even if they don't actively use the imbalanced strat, for the reasons you mentioned. But my point is a narrow one: you should discredit a player's achievements more who actually used the imbalanced strats, even if you also discredit to some extent other players of the same race who did not.
I guess we just disagree. If someone all ind with zerg during bl/infestor and won tournaments because most of their opponents were greeding up to combat bl/infestor, to me it's the same as just bl/infestoring people in terms of balance abuse.
Simplified example ofc.
Gotta use your tools, Rogue was damn good at it.
As a huge Trap fanboy seeing him get Nydus/Swarmhosted to death still pains me, but Rogue played an incredible series in terms of pure ruthlessness, and respect there.
Also he was still generally competitive playing more standard and from my memory he pocketed the really abusive stuff for the crunch games, unlike say the BL/Infestor era where it felt Zergs were pretty consistently leaning on it who’d never really done much before or after outside of that style.
I still feel like a guy like Roro was a bloody skilled StarCraft player and is a bit unfairly forgotten. I’m pretty sure I’m the first person to have mentioned him on here in at least 2 years.
Or someone like Byul, possibly the most underrated player in SC2 history who didn’t even lean heavily on BL/Infestor at all and for some reason is like absolutely never mentioned! As Khaldor once memorably said that’s Byulshit
On February 27 2024 17:41 dbRic1203 wrote: Prediction: Dark gets #2 and Maru / Serral share first place I Don t see a World where Dark is ranked lower than Mvp
Congrats to Rogue on placing No. 3 on the greatest players of all time list in 2024! Miss seeing his success and play in offline tournaments. I wonder what kind of form he'll be in once he does come back from military deployment.
On February 28 2024 00:50 Pandain wrote: I didn't say that I was necessarily subscribing to that philosophy. But I think it's completely fair that if (1) you think Zerg was broken because of, for instance, invulnerable nyduses and swarm host ZvP; and (2) you want to discount a player's legacy because a race was OP, then (3) you should discredit a player who actually abused the imbalance more than someone who did not.
Serral abused zerg as well. He just didn't find any success with the cheesier aspect of it. Lingbane hydra was imba, nydus was imba, dropperlord rushes were imba, BL/Infestor was imba, swarm hosts were imba, hell Rogue even made proxy hatches and 6/12 pool look imba. The difference is that Serral couldn't pull off half of them, or perhaps lacked Rogue's ability to know when they would work. Do you really prefer Serral's perfect macro and stats when he lost in World Championships to protoss players who go on to get 4-0'd by Rogue?
As for the stats, Rogue played against his fellow Koreans far more than Serral did. From 2017 onwards, 370 matches to Serral's less than 100. Of course the numbers skew towards 50%. If Serral played Koreans 4x as much, his stats would skew as well (or maybe not if he's truly inhuman)
Most of those online events were no more important to Rogue as ladder games probably were. That's why adjusting for offline tournaments is important. Even if there were a few big events in 2021 that were online, it's better to exclude them than to including every ESL weekly that happened
But even then, Rogue's winrates aren't what give him top 3 GOAT status, it's his trophy collection and winrate's in finals. Almost all of which came against protoss. I think its reasonable to say a top 3 GOAT candidate who's wins almost all came from one matchup was maybe the best at that matchup. Add to that his history as the best ZvP sniper in proleague, winning famous ace matches against herO, Zest etc when they were the reigning Starleague champions.
Rogue copium I say!
Serral’s numbers are better against better opposition on average. Not discussing GOATNESS currently but the best ZvPer question specifically.
As per the bolded, Zest literally showed his entire hand of cards and build optimisations to take Serral out in Katowice 2020, and still it went to the decider. Then Rogue just rinsed him because he’d seen his opponent’s cards. Full credit to Rogue for his StarCraft brain, but if you reverse the order the matches took place in and Zest narrowly beats Rogue, Serral would stomp him as well.
We go to Wombat’s LawTM (I’ll force wider adoption sometime) where a Protoss can beat even the best Zerg in a playoff bracket, but almost never two in a run because they’ve had to show their bag of tricks.
The inverse is also true incidentally as per my argument. Classic had to dig so deep he did one of the all-time great risky pocket builds to take Rogue out, and Serral just smacked him.
It's so easy to focus only on Rogue's finals winnings and act like every other time when he lost to Protoss he just "doesn't care".
It's almost like Serral also regularly destorys Korean top Protoss but on higher rates than Rogue, as listed by WombaT above. Sample size stops being an excuse when it's close to 100 matches against the absolute best players on biggest international tournaments. It's not his fault that he more often run into Protoss in elimination matches that's not finals therefore got ignored by certain people.
EPT
