I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
I thought so too but in the stats Miz posted Rogues ZvP map winrate offline vs koreans is only 1.3% lower than Serrals
But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
On February 28 2024 00:50 Pandain wrote: I didn't say that I was necessarily subscribing to that philosophy. But I think it's completely fair that if (1) you think Zerg was broken because of, for instance, invulnerable nyduses and swarm host ZvP; and (2) you want to discount a player's legacy because a race was OP, then (3) you should discredit a player who actually abused the imbalance more than someone who did not.
Serral abused zerg as well. He just didn't find any success with the cheesier aspect of it. Lingbane hydra was imba, nydus was imba, dropperlord rushes were imba, BL/Infestor was imba, swarm hosts were imba, hell Rogue even made proxy hatches and 6/12 pool look imba. The difference is that Serral couldn't pull off half of them, or perhaps lacked Rogue's ability to know when they would work. Do you really prefer Serral's perfect macro and stats when he lost in World Championships to protoss players who go on to get 4-0'd by Rogue?
As for the stats, Rogue played against his fellow Koreans far more than Serral did. From 2017 onwards, 370 matches to Serral's less than 100. Of course the numbers skew towards 50%. If Serral played Koreans 4x as much, his stats would skew as well (or maybe not if he's truly inhuman)
Most of those online events were no more important to Rogue as ladder games probably were. That's why adjusting for offline tournaments is important. Even if there were a few big events in 2021 that were online, it's better to exclude them than to including every ESL weekly that happened
But even then, Rogue's winrates aren't what give him top 3 GOAT status, it's his trophy collection and winrate's in finals. Almost all of which came against protoss. I think its reasonable to say a top 3 GOAT candidate who's wins almost all came from one matchup was maybe the best at that matchup. Add to that his history as the best ZvP sniper in proleague, winning famous ace matches against herO, Zest etc when they were the reigning Starleague champions.
Yeah I think people forgot that Serral at GSL vs the world 2019 abused BL/Infestor to its fullest against Trap and Classic with some of the most disgusting games I've seen in there
On February 28 2024 00:50 Pandain wrote: I didn't say that I was necessarily subscribing to that philosophy. But I think it's completely fair that if (1) you think Zerg was broken because of, for instance, invulnerable nyduses and swarm host ZvP; and (2) you want to discount a player's legacy because a race was OP, then (3) you should discredit a player who actually abused the imbalance more than someone who did not.
Serral abused zerg as well. He just didn't find any success with the cheesier aspect of it. Lingbane hydra was imba, nydus was imba, dropperlord rushes were imba, BL/Infestor was imba, swarm hosts were imba, hell Rogue even made proxy hatches and 6/12 pool look imba. The difference is that Serral couldn't pull off half of them, or perhaps lacked Rogue's ability to know when they would work. Do you really prefer Serral's perfect macro and stats when he lost in World Championships to protoss players who go on to get 4-0'd by Rogue?
As for the stats, Rogue played against his fellow Koreans far more than Serral did. From 2017 onwards, 370 matches to Serral's less than 100. Of course the numbers skew towards 50%. If Serral played Koreans 4x as much, his stats would skew as well (or maybe not if he's truly inhuman)
Most of those online events were no more important to Rogue as ladder games probably were. That's why adjusting for offline tournaments is important. Even if there were a few big events in 2021 that were online, it's better to exclude them than to including every ESL weekly that happened
But even then, Rogue's winrates aren't what give him top 3 GOAT status, it's his trophy collection and winrate's in finals. Almost all of which came against protoss. I think its reasonable to say a top 3 GOAT candidate who's wins almost all came from one matchup was maybe the best at that matchup. Add to that his history as the best ZvP sniper in proleague, winning famous ace matches against herO, Zest etc when they were the reigning Starleague champions.
Rogue copium I say!
Serral’s numbers are better against better opposition on average. Not discussing GOATNESS currently but the best ZvPer question specifically.
As per the bolded, Zest literally showed his entire hand of cards and build optimisations to take Serral out in Katowice 2020, and still it went to the decider. Then Rogue just rinsed him because he’d seen his opponent’s cards. Full credit to Rogue for his StarCraft brain, but if you reverse the order the matches took place in and Zest narrowly beats Rogue, Serral would stomp him as well.
We go to Wombat’s LawTM (I’ll force wider adoption sometime) where a Protoss can beat even the best Zerg in a playoff bracket, but almost never two in a run because they’ve had to show their bag of tricks. The inverse is also true incidentally as per my argument. Classic had to dig so deep he did one of the all-time great risky pocket builds to take Rogue out, and Serral just smacked him.
Assuming you mean Classic infamous Blink DT and proxy robo to beat Rogue at Blizzcon, it was Dark who smacked him not Serral.
I'll admit there's probably some aspect of luck that protoss players spent their cards beating other zergs and Rogue got to swoop in later. But even within those series Rogue was showing much greater variety and adaptability than Serral. For example Katowice at 2020, Zest kept blocking Serral's natural, after he tried it against Rogue, the latter would simply build his hatch earlier even if it's technically less efficient.
At Katowice 2018 Rogue really did the entire kitchen sink at Classic to 4-0 him. He didn't let Classic catch him off guard or play his sneaky timings that just 3-0'd Serral. Serral just didn't have those builds in the bag, he was stuck playing reactive and didn't adapt across the series
edit: for the record I think Serral is better all-time, and personally despise Rogue whenever he'd win with some bullshit. But Rogue is the ultimate ZvP sniper. He could do every build you'd ever heard off and many you haven't heard off. He would abuse the lategame like other zergs, but whenever a protoss rose up, kill them with cheese.
On February 27 2024 10:16 TL.net ESPORTS wrote: While Rogue doesn't win the honor of being the Greatest of All Time in my eyes, he's certainly the greatest of something. The greatest champion? The greatest big-match player? The greatest son-of-a-b**** you never want to face in an important game? Whatever you call it, Rogue had a special quality that separates him from everyone else on this list.
Perfect summary imo. You kinda sold Rogue was #3 when you said the #3 spot deserved a whole blog post of games, so I was a bit disappointed since SC2 is about winning when it matters... and God was Rogue disgustingly good at that, so the fan in me hoped Rogue would be a sort of unexpected #1 when you started the series. But I completely get your points. Yeah, Rogue is probably not the greatest SC2 player of all time, but he's definitely the greatest SC2 winner, and the #1 in my heart
On February 27 2024 15:21 Perceivere wrote: single-handedly carried Finland to #1 in 2019 Nation Wars; homestory cups over Reynor, Clem (x2), TY, Solar, and Innovation;
Nation Wars? Homestory cups? Seriously? Marinelord AKed Korean team one time. I guess he should be the GOAT, because he's above all korean players. Oh, BTW, he also AKed Finland team in the same tournament. He carried team France to championship. So he's definitely the GOAT, no?
C'mon, adding these just weakens your point.
Wow...I don't even know what to say to you...other than that you're completely missing the point.
No one is saying that it's any one tourney that matters. Are you lost? If you think single-handedly taking a nation to win against everyone, including S Korea, and winning 7 or 8 HSCs, out of 10, were an easy feat, you are most definitely lost. Do you not understand the concept of statistical outliers? Yeah, even players like marinelord, Scarlett, and Oliveira can have a really good day. Are you going to try and put down those championship tournaments those other two won as well because they were statistical outliers? By the way, around that time, marinelord was no slouch, either.
OK, I get your point. Statistics matters, even though some of the results are less important than the others. A championship is a championship, after all. So small tournaments like Nation Wars and Homestory Cups are important, too.
Then, I'm pretty sure, the absolute GOAT must be... Dark! Look at this long list of tournaments that he won!
World Team League 2022 Winter World Team League 2022 Summer DH SC2 Masters 2022 Valencia World Team League 2021 Winter 2021 Global StarCraft II League Season 2 TeamLiquid StarLeague 6 Gold Series Team Championship 2020 Spring 2019 WCS Global Finals 2019 AfreecaTV GSL Super Tournament 2 2019 GSL vs. The World: Teams Competition 2019 Global StarCraft II League Season 2: Code S 2017 GSL vs. The World: Teams Competition 2016 WCS Korea Season 2 Cross Finals Archon Show Match 2016 WCS Korea Season 2 Cross Finals 2016 StarCraft II StarLeague Season 1: Main Event OSC Championship Season 11 WardiTV 2023 WardiTV Spring Championship 2023 World Team League 2022 Winter AfreecaTV Champions Cup Gladiators' Cup NeXT 2020 Spring Cursory Cup WardiTV Winter Championship 2023: NA Server Qualifier #1 LiuLi Cup #7 HU x StarCraft II Global Virtual Tournament KSL Summer Slam Afreeca World 104 Afreeca World 99 OlimoLeague Invitational #8 Theatre of Dreams 1 QCL: Power Overwhelming Pro Teamleague 2018 ONPOONG StarCraft 2 MASTERS Season 3 BTSL S2: Korea OlimoLeague Monthly Finals: October 2020 ESL Open Cup #215 Korea Korean Starcraft League #40 ESL Open Cup #207 Americas Kung Fu Cup 2023 Winter Weekly #11 ESL Open Cup #205 Korea Korean Starcraft League #38 ESL Open Cup #203 Americas ESL Open Cup #202 Korea ESL Open Cup #199 Korea Kung Fu Cup 2023 Winter Weekly #2 ESL Open Cup #194 Korea Korean Starcraft League #27 ESL Open Cup #192 Americas ESL Open Cup #191 Korea ESL Open Cup #190 Korea ESL Open Cup #189 Americas ESL Open Cup #189 Korea Korean Starcraft League #23 Korean Starcraft League #21 Korean Starcraft League #20 Korean Starcraft League #19 ESL Open Cup #182 Korea Korean Starcraft League #17 Kung Fu Cup 2023 Weekly #8 ESL Open Cup #178 Korea Korean Starcraft League #11 ESL Open Cup #172 Korea ESL Open Cup #171 Americas ESL Open Cup #171 Korea ESL Open Cup #170 Korea ESL Open Cup #169 Korea ESL Open Cup #168 Korea ESL Open Cup #167 Korea ESL Open Cup #166 Korea ESL Open Cup #161 Korea ESL Open Cup #160 Korea ESL Open Cup #159 Americas Goodgame Cup #30 ESL Open Cup #155 Korea ESL Open Cup #154 Korea ESL Open Cup #151 Korea ESL Open Cup #150 Korea ESL Open Cup #148 Korea ESL Open Cup #145 Americas ESL Open Cup #124 Korea ESL Open Cup #100 Korea ESL Open Cup #99 Korea ESL Open Cup #98 Americas ESL Open Cup #98 Korea ESL Open Cup #73 Korea ESL Open Cup #72 Korea ESL Open Cup #68 Korea OlimoLeague Week #224 ESL Open Cup #61 Korea ESL Open Cup #41 Korea Kung Fu Cup 2020 Weekly #25 OlimoLeague Week #206 ESL Open Cup #40 Korea ESL Open Cup #28 Korea Kung Fu Cup 2020 Weekly #18 Anonymous #8 Kung Fu Cup Weekly #10 Anonymous #2 Anonymous #1 Kung Fu Cup Weekly #7 Ballistix Brawl: Season 3 Week #4 Ballistix Brawl Week #2 Korean Starcraft League #44 Korean Starcraft League #43 Brawler's Club #38 AfreecaTV Pro Series #29 AfreecaTV Pro Series #24 INu's Battles #6 AfreecaTV Pro Series #10 AfreecaTV Pro Series #4 ITaX Super Series #91 ITaX Ultimate Battles #13 WTL 2021 Summer: DPG vs KaiZi Show Match Onpoong Ultimate Battle #17 Onpoong Ultimate Battle #16 Onpoong Ultimate Battle #15 Onpoong Ultimate Battle #14 Onpoong Ultimate Battle #13 Onpoong Ultimate Battle #9 Onpoong Ultimate Battle #8 Onpoong Ultimate Battle #7 Onpoong Ultimate Battle #6 Onpoong Ultimate Battle #5 Onpoong Ultimate Battle #4 Onpoong Ultimate Battle #3 Polygon Invitational #10 OlimoLeague Invitational #16 WardiTV Weekly S1 Finals Qualifier #1
He won against Serral 4:0 in the final of TeamLiquid StarLeague 6, earning $6000, while Serrals winning against Clem in Homestory Cup only earned him $3500. Over all, Dark has 128 championships, while Serral only has 106! Poor Rogue only has 70, I absolutely agree that he has no chance to be the GOAT. What a Patchzerg, indeed! He was not even trying! I think I just unveiled the last two GOATs, second place: Serral and 1st place: Dark! Thank you for enlightening me, it all makes sense now.
This is why I said Dark is definitely high on my own list, and I have him next to Rogue. Dark only has two fewer Code S victories, but many, many 2nd-4th placements in Code S and Super Tournaments. Rogue is far too inconsistent, and he didn't provide nearly as much content for the community as Dark. Dark is now in the million dollars prize money league for a reason. Gotta respect that.
It's people like Dark, Clem, and other weekly warriors that provide the bulk of content for fans to enjoy, while they wait for the next big one. This, to me, counts for a lot. From small to big tournaments, Dark was very successful in his own right. To not include him would be criminal. That said, I do weigh all the wins accordingly. Global weeklies get weighed much more heavily than regional weeklies, so the numerous Kung Fu cups are more valuable than regional weeklies, and global major tournaments are another order of magnitude more value, with HSCs weighing far above the others, due to their much higher fan service value. Global premieres (some HSCs are included) are another order of magnitude above that, since Maru and sometimes Rogue/Dark don't participate in the major ones.
I personally have an issue with weighing World Championships (IEMs/Blizzcons) another order of magnitude above these other global premieres. I don't think players necessarily perform better in the former. If anything, many have shown evidence of the opposite. I personally weigh WCs only slightly above other global premieres.
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
I thought so too but in the stats Miz posted Rogues ZvP map winrate offline vs koreans is only 1.3% lower than Serrals
But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
I thought so too but in the stats Miz posted Rogues ZvP map winrate offline vs koreans is only 1.3% lower than Serrals
But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
Yeah, because one is for people saying Serral's 90 match sample size isn't enough compared to Rogue's 400 when comparing them as the greatest players ever.
Meanwhile the comment about Hurricane is just giving an example of how he isn't a throwaway player. No one is putting Hurricane on a GOAT list
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
I thought so too but in the stats Miz posted Rogues ZvP map winrate offline vs koreans is only 1.3% lower than Serrals
But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
Yeah, because one is for people saying Serral's 90 match sample size isn't enough compared to Rogue's 400 when comparing them as the greatest players ever.
Meanwhile the comment about Hurricane is just giving an example of how he isn't a throwaway player. No one is putting Hurricane on a GOAT list
Serral has a better record, against better players, has by a distance the all time peak ZvP on Aligulac, the best win rate in the matchup overall, the best win rate in the matchup versus purely Korean players.
Sure Rogue can match up very well in a GOAT shootout by virtue of many clutch performances and his trophy cabinet.
In a best ZvP shootout he really just can’t, along basically any metric you go off.
I think he's easily going down as the best ZvP player of all time as well. It's not even really a question in my mind.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
I thought so too but in the stats Miz posted Rogues ZvP map winrate offline vs koreans is only 1.3% lower than Serrals
But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
The 90 number is games. Match count is 35 from the OP.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
I thought so too but in the stats Miz posted Rogues ZvP map winrate offline vs koreans is only 1.3% lower than Serrals
But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
The 90 number is games. Match count is 35 from the OP.
My bad, 90 matches is counting both online and offline. Offline is 35 matches.
Regardless, in both cases, Serral's ZvP winrate against Korean Protoss is higher than Rogue's. Online, offline, online&offline, you name it. Serral's number in the same period is just better.
Note that in online matches, the only KR Protoss Serral will run into are the top dogs making deep runs in major/premiere international tournaments. Meanwhile Rogue sometimes plays weeklies and qualifiers against some no name KR protoss.
The only argument for Rogue is that he run into Protoss in the finals more often than Serral so he had more iconic championship ZvP series. But this is not a skill issue, just pure coincidence. It's not Serral's fault that most of his Protoss opponents either gets eliminated by him or the other finalist before final happens.
In the end, this is such trivial debate. Serral and Rogue is 1A and 1B as ZvP GOAT, depends on whether you value overall consistency or finals records. I will give one thing to Rogue tho, his ZvP are more interesting and entertaining than Serral's, he just have a deeper bag of tricks on how to torture Protoss in all ways possible, while Serral most of the time just overwhelm his opponent with stronger fundamentals.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
I thought so too but in the stats Miz posted Rogues ZvP map winrate offline vs koreans is only 1.3% lower than Serrals
But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
Yeah, because one is for people saying Serral's 90 match sample size isn't enough compared to Rogue's 400 when comparing them as the greatest players ever.
Meanwhile the comment about Hurricane is just giving an example of how he isn't a throwaway player. No one is putting Hurricane on a GOAT list
Maru lost to meo, scarlett, and many other foreign players in BO3 series. We need more sample size of Maru playing non Koreans.
Rogue has the honor of being perhaps my most hated player ever--who I eventually learned to appreciate, perhaps even in a way to love. (After all, the closest thing to love is often hatred.) I'm a sucker for narratives, tryhards, underdogs, and Protoss: the things Rogue seemed to exist to crush into the dirt with utter callous merciless disregard. I will never forgive him for ending soO's dream, or Trap's dream, or Trap's dream again, or herO's dream, or...
And his play certainly matched that villain mindset. I don't think I've ever been more disgusted with the game of Starcraft, nay, the whole RTS genre, nay, videogaming itself, than in that one final (iirc against Trap) where he just shamelessly abused Nydus/Swarm Host and Infested Terrans over and over and over again like the true disgusting bastard bully he is. It can be tempting to think of Rogue as a kind of super-sOs, but while sOs seemed to just enjoy playing the game as weirdly and creatively and scrappily as possible whether he won or lost, Rogue's play seemed to embody some unholy fusion of boredom, stability, laziness, and calculated cruelty.
Lest this seem too harsh, let me just say that all the above is, from a slightly different point of view, high praise indeed. There have always been the bully zergs, the villain zergs, the Patchzergs, the Idras and Nerchios and rorOs and Snipers of this world. Yet none of them ever honed their craft or reached anywhere near Rogue's level either of skill or evil.
In the end, before he retired I admit I came to respect, even bear a sort of grudging affection for, Rogue's raw talent, his skill, his dedication to his own monstrously evil Way, his brilliance in carrying out that Way, even his laziness in refusing to ever do anything else or practice when he couldn't inflict maximum cruelty by so doing.
So I salute the bastard; I praise him. We will never see his like again.
On February 27 2024 10:41 Waxangel wrote: Personally I still think Rogue CLEARLY has the greatest career resume of all time.
But I pushed Serral ahead of him to #1 GOAT recently because his resume now comes close enough-ish with world championship #3, and the aura-of-terror factor that's persisted since second-half 2018 has just become historically ridiculous (based on how other pros speak about him, how he's perceived in the community, etc).
I'm looking at their results on their liquipedia pages, and I don't see it. I can understand why some may have his resume edging over Serral's, but..."CLEARLY"??
I can easily name Rogue's biggest wins: Two IEM WCs, and 1 Blizzcon WC, four code S, an IEM Shanghai, two GSL STs, and...what else am I missing that is significant?
Serral: Same big threes as Rogue; two Master's Coliseums; ESL masters wins over Clem, Trap (x2), Gumiho, and Stats; single-handedly carried Finland to #1 in 2019 Nation Wars; homestory cups over Reynor, Clem (x2), TY, Solar, and Innovation; two GSL v TW; Teamliquid Starleague 9; too many 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place premieres to even count; and finally, I know many official writers here don't think much of the region-locked cups, but the shit ton (8 to be exact) of those wins where he went through many Code S-level EU players should at least amount to something?? Do these writers really think that eight tournaments where he had to go through players like Elazer, Heromarine, Showtime, Neeb, Clem, and Reynor really don't even amount to a single GSL win, where players don't even have to contend with Clem, Reynor, and Serral??? LOL
The clear pro-Kr bias of some people is actually insane.
Calm down champ. Zerg has been OP for nearly the entire duration of time from 2018 til now; the same amount of time Protoss has been underpowered. Tournament results clearly show this. Not hard to be the GOAT when you are only competing against 2 races during your period of dominance....
You're writing history red by those who come after all of us. Hell, by writings of you I could easily declare that Rogue was the [Insert lovehate word here], but...
Where is Dark?! #2? There is no Rogue, without Dark. There are no Serral without both of them, over all relevant patches. It simply isn't right. Now, You can only place Dark above Rogue and nobody can ever accept that.
You simply cannot ignore ultimate "The Foreigner Killer" from the picture since 2018 of "How to kill all Koreans and everyone else".
Dark at least tried to do that, put some resistance.. Imba or 'patchzerg' talks do not apply here. And if they do, they do with Rogue too, The Great One.
I'll RIOT for Dark! Serral's psyche was tutored by Dark.
On February 27 2024 10:41 Waxangel wrote: Personally I still think Rogue CLEARLY has the greatest career resume of all time.
But I pushed Serral ahead of him to #1 GOAT recently because his resume now comes close enough-ish with world championship #3, and the aura-of-terror factor that's persisted since second-half 2018 has just become historically ridiculous (based on how other pros speak about him, how he's perceived in the community, etc).
I'm looking at their results on their liquipedia pages, and I don't see it. I can understand why some may have his resume edging over Serral's, but..."CLEARLY"??
I can easily name Rogue's biggest wins: Two IEM WCs, and 1 Blizzcon WC, four code S, an IEM Shanghai, two GSL STs, and...what else am I missing that is significant?
Serral: Same big threes as Rogue; two Master's Coliseums; ESL masters wins over Clem, Trap (x2), Gumiho, and Stats; single-handedly carried Finland to #1 in 2019 Nation Wars; homestory cups over Reynor, Clem (x2), TY, Solar, and Innovation; two GSL v TW; Teamliquid Starleague 9; too many 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place premieres to even count; and finally, I know many official writers here don't think much of the region-locked cups, but the shit ton (8 to be exact) of those wins where he went through many Code S-level EU players should at least amount to something?? Do these writers really think that eight tournaments where he had to go through players like Elazer, Heromarine, Showtime, Neeb, Clem, and Reynor really don't even amount to a single GSL win, where players don't even have to contend with Clem, Reynor, and Serral??? LOL
The clear pro-Kr bias of some people is actually insane.
Calm down champ. Zerg has been OP for nearly the entire duration of time from 2018 til now; the same amount of time Protoss has been underpowered. Tournament results clearly show this. Not hard to be the GOAT when you are only competing against 2 races during your period of dominance....
We were comparing two zergs' careers, and you're talking about...balance...
EPT
