But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
Yeah, because one is for people saying Serral's 90 match sample size isn't enough compared to Rogue's 400 when comparing them as the greatest players ever.
Meanwhile the comment about Hurricane is just giving an example of how he isn't a throwaway player. No one is putting Hurricane on a GOAT list
Serral has a better record, against better players, has by a distance the all time peak ZvP on Aligulac, the best win rate in the matchup overall, the best win rate in the matchup versus purely Korean players.
Sure Rogue can match up very well in a GOAT shootout by virtue of many clutch performances and his trophy cabinet.
In a best ZvP shootout he really just can’t, along basically any metric you go off.
Well this I don't quite understand.
Rogue has an argument for being the GOAT, and almost all of his wins come from one matchup, yet you think he doesn't have an argument for being the best in that matchup?
Even if we're just talking stats, Serral isn't actually that far ahead...
ZvP record offline (against Korean) from 2017-2024 Serral: 72-35 (67%), 27-8 (77%) Rogue: 147-76 (66%), 52-21 (71%)
Rogue sports nearly as good a win% as Serral while playing over TWICE as much. Is that not more impressive? You can get arbitrary and say Serral played a slightly tougher on average opponent (he still has guys like Hurricane and Zoun in there mind), but then Rogue had to prepare for twice as many matches and still hit such a winrate.
Now, if you're looking past the flat statistics like that anyway, then there's others that go in favour of Rogue.
ZvP finals. Serral is 2-0, Rogue is 7-0. Surely you weight finals as more important than any other match? Extend that to ro4+finals, Serral is 6-3 (67%). Rogue is 8-2 (80%).
And I'll throw in some history changing ZvP matches mentioned in the Rogue highlight thread.
Classic won SSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season Rain won GSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season herO won SSL S3 2015, lost game 7 in the Proleague playoffs to Rogue the following week Zest won GSL S1 2016 and lost not one but two Proleague ace matches to Rogue right before and right after
He was ruining the best protoss players dreams while they were in their primes, years before he was even a championship contender.
Also noteworthy imo that in 2 of Rogues world championship runs he stomped the player that beat Serral.
Surely that has to count for something too, I think Rogue definitely has a case for best ZvP if we put extra value on the most important matches. If we consider online/unimportant matches just as highly then it's Serral but I disagree with that approach
On February 28 2024 00:13 Fango wrote: [quote] Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
Yeah, because one is for people saying Serral's 90 match sample size isn't enough compared to Rogue's 400 when comparing them as the greatest players ever.
Meanwhile the comment about Hurricane is just giving an example of how he isn't a throwaway player. No one is putting Hurricane on a GOAT list
Serral has a better record, against better players, has by a distance the all time peak ZvP on Aligulac, the best win rate in the matchup overall, the best win rate in the matchup versus purely Korean players.
Sure Rogue can match up very well in a GOAT shootout by virtue of many clutch performances and his trophy cabinet.
In a best ZvP shootout he really just can’t, along basically any metric you go off.
Well this I don't quite understand.
Rogue has an argument for being the GOAT, and almost all of his wins come from one matchup, yet you think he doesn't have an argument for being the best in that matchup?
Even if we're just talking stats, Serral isn't actually that far ahead...
ZvP record offline (against Korean) from 2017-2024 Serral: 72-35 (67%), 27-8 (77%) Rogue: 147-76 (66%), 52-21 (71%)
Rogue sports nearly as good a win% as Serral while playing over TWICE as much. Is that not more impressive? You can get arbitrary and say Serral played a slightly tougher on average opponent (he still has guys like Hurricane and Zoun in there mind), but then Rogue had to prepare for twice as many matches and still hit such a winrate.
Now, if you're looking past the flat statistics like that anyway, then there's others that go in favour of Rogue.
ZvP finals. Serral is 2-0, Rogue is 7-0. Surely you weight finals as more important than any other match? Extend that to ro4+finals, Serral is 6-3 (67%). Rogue is 8-2 (80%).
And I'll throw in some history changing ZvP matches mentioned in the Rogue highlight thread.
Classic won SSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season Rain won GSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season herO won SSL S3 2015, lost game 7 in the Proleague playoffs to Rogue the following week Zest won GSL S1 2016 and lost not one but two Proleague ace matches to Rogue right before and right after
He was ruining the best protoss players dreams while they were in their primes, years before he was even a championship contender.
Also noteworthy imo that in 2 of Rogues world championship runs he stomped the player that beat Serral.
Surely that has to count for something too, I think Rogue definitely has a case for best ZvP if we put extra value on the most important matches. If we consider online/unimportant matches just as highly then it's Serral but I disagree with that approach
In my head, Serral is just slightly above Rogue. But then I'm reminded that Rogue had to go to the military, when it seemed like Rogue was maybe only hitting new peaks. It's really too sad Rogue couldn't have stuck around for 1-2 more years, probably the end of the modern KR SC2 scene, to see how he and Serral stack up. Maru seems to have plateau'd for the most part, based on Rogue usually coming out on top over Maru, and Serral over Maru too. Perhaps Rogue could have stopped Serral and been the #1 GOAT. (As a Rogue fan I think there's a chance, though realistically I don't think Rogue would have gotten as high of a winrate or consistency as Serral).
On February 28 2024 10:35 Kitai wrote: For everyone hoping for Dark to be included in the top 10 (myself included), I thought it was already somewhat spoiled that he didn't make the list when we found out that MVP did. Can't remember what specific set of words that I read, but unless it was a reading comprehension issue, that was the impression that I got.
Agree or disagree, I love that this series has provoked some passionate discussions since I can't remember the last time these forums were so active lol. To me, the cardinal sins of this list were placing MVP above INno, and not including Dark at all (even if I misremembered what I read earlier, I can't imagine him being placed above Rogue and we all know who the top 2 spots will be unless it's some sort of gimmicky tie). At least, as Winter puts it, Dark is the best player in the world according to Dark and that's what really matters.
Yeah Miz said something along those lines in the comments of it. He'll write a blog about it, but the list is set in stone.
Here's what he said:
On February 21 2024 08:36 Mizenhauer wrote:
On February 21 2024 06:15 TheDougler wrote: First of all Miz, excellent work. Your writing is so fun to read as always.
The quasi-confirmation that Dark didn't make the top 10 really surpised me though. Let's look at the comparison to Rain, specifically.
Notable tournament finishes (Rain): 2012 WCS Asia: 1st place 2012 OnGameNet Starleague: 1st place 2013 OnGameNet Starleague: 2nd place 2013 GSL Hot6ix Cup: 1st place 2015 IEM San Jose: 2nd place 2015 Code S Season 2: 1st place 2015 HomeStory Cup 11: 1st place
Notable Tournament Finishes (Dark): 2016 Code S Season 1: 1st Place 2016 WCS Korea: 1st Place 2016 WCS Global Championships: 2nd Place 2019 GSL Code S Season 2: 1st Place 2019 GSL AfreecaTV Super Tournament 2: 1st Place 2019 WCS Global Finals: 1st Place 2020 Teamliquid StarLeague 6: 1st Place 2021 GSL Season 2: 1st Place 2022 GSL Afreeka TV Super Tournament 1: 2nd Place 2023 GSL Code S Season 2: 2nd Place
There's plenty of other tournaments, including premier tournaments that Dark placed in the top 4 of that I haven't even mentioned above.
I simply cannot see a logic behind including Rain but not him. Heck, I'm not sure that TY even deserves his spot above Dark. Let's look at the justification of that:
The Placement
TY and #10 player Rain are similar for their consistent, high-level play in Korean Individual Leagues, and their list of top-four finishes is very similar (TY: 2x first place, 2x second place, 2x RO4 finishes // Rain: 2x first place, 1x second place, 3x RO4).
However, TY gets the nod for ninth place by surpassing Rain in a couple of key areas. The biggest differentiating factor was TY's results in world championship-tier tournaments—TY won both IEM and WESG, while Rain's best result was top 3 at BWC/WCS 2012. Also, TY's stretch of consistently great domestic play lasted for five years, compared to Rain's three and a half. Overall, TY was the obvious choice to slot in right ahead of Rain.
Okay, so let's look at top four finishes in Korean Individual Leagues, and world championship tournaments. Fortunately, Miz already did the math for us:
Korean Individual Leagues: TY: 2x first place, 2x second place, 2x RO4 Rain: 2x first place, 1x second place, 3x RO4 Dark: 2x first place, 3x second place, 4x RO4.
So, equal number of first places, but more consistent finals and semi-finals appearances for Dark. Let's look at world championship events:
TY: 1st Place IEM 2017, 1st Place WESG 2017 Rain: 3rd Place BWC/WCS 2012 Dark: 1st Place WCS 2019, 2nd Place WCS Global Championships 2016
Here we see that the logic that places TY above Rain unquestionably puts Dark above Rain as well. So, what gives?
Could it be that Dark's winrate against fellow S-tier competition is much poorer (which I don't have the statistics for, but feel like could certainly be the case)?
I don't think it's that either, as Miz notes Dark's impressive win-rate against TY:
From what I can read from the TY article, it's mostly this 3% lower overall win-rate in Korean Individual Leagues, despite having the more impressive record in terms of Top4+ appearences in those leagues when compared to TY:
TY's consistent strength is also apparent in his overall win-loss record in Korean Individual Leagues. From the start of LotV up until his military service, he was neck-and-neck with Maru in terms of having the best statistics. TY's map win-rate of 64.9% (170W-92L) was slightly head of Maru's 63.8% (166W-94L), while his series win-rate of 69.8% (60W-26L) was second only to Maru's 73.2% (60W-22). When it comes to Dark, Stats, and Rogue, the other top players during this time frame, their win-rates all trail slightly or considerably behind TY.
We should note however, that even by that math, the match win rate (which I'd argue is more important than map win rate) is even closer.
Heck, LOOK at that consistency from Dark, the only one on that chart to qualify for every listed event in that table!
To me, there's just something not-correct about puttin Rain above Dark for the top 10, given the criteria we know about. When we look at weekenders, this becomes even more apparent, but I won't belabor that point as they're weighted lightly by the criteria we know about.
Great post and we agree on the consistency. Dark is one of the most consistent players in history (which i will go into in length during the blog).
The rain thing is a pretty easy argument for me as he was a top 3 player in hots when it came to KIL. Ignore soO and ByuL for a moment since they are a combined 0-7 in KIL finals during hots. Rain and Inno were the only players to reach 3 KIL finals in hots and no one won more than Rain (two wins).
I understand a lot of people feel differently, but if all you do is count trophies then there's no reason for a list. You just do some 1+1 basic math and there you go. The Protoss Rain played in 2013 was the best we had seen up to that point (many people try to point out how trash everyone was and how they could go back and win gsl, but I think a player deserves great credit for playing at a never before seen level. Rain was also one match from being a double royal roader (though he would have had to play life in the final), but he was also one match away from making a second final opposite ByuL in 2015). It's funny how so much hinges on so few games. I didn't entertain hypotheticals in the article
Zest had a big part in overhauling Protoss in 2014 and it's fair to say he surpassed Rain as far as peak Protoss at that point. I personally prefer 2015 Rain to 2013 Rain as I think he was a far more well rounded player and I think he raised the level again.
In the end, you could argue Rain benefitted from retirement. Unlike soO, zest, inno, dark, classic, herO, rogue etc, Rain never had a long stretch of being sub par. He was a top tier from start to finish (barring a few months in 2014) and that's a very difficult thing to accomplish.
If Rain had generated those numbers in a career as long as Maru's, I wouldn';t think much of him at all. In fact, if your primary determiner of GOAT ness is trophies and final appearances, players like Cure and Solar should be ahead of a number of players who most people would consider much better than either of them, but didn't play for 11 years and didn't have as much time to build a nice trophy collection.
Edit: Here's what he said earlier that confirmed it (more or less):
On February 21 2024 02:15 Mizenhauer wrote:
On February 21 2024 01:16 Poopi wrote:
On February 21 2024 01:01 WombaT wrote:
On February 21 2024 00:26 Poopi wrote:
On February 21 2024 00:12 LennX wrote: Will there be a #0? Im struggling to see Dark being out of the top 10. The top 3 should already be locked in per everyone mentioning Rouge Maru Serral...
I doubt it. soO > Dark is the most peculiar thing about this ranking though, because both won their only WC when zerg was absolutely overpowered (2019) while Dark was also doing well in GSL at other times and actually won the thing. He even made top 2 in 2016 in an epic series versus ByuN, and was overall a feared opponent among foreigners and still is despite being far past his prime. Whereas soO lost to Zhugeliang and stuff, and never won a single GSL. soO literally had the game to be completely broken to be able to win a prestigious tournament, similarly to Messi getting a WC handed to him before his retirement
Along with Rain it’s probably the most debatable shout
It’s like SC2’s ultimate Kong versus, for my money probably the player who was a top, top consistent contender for the longest without winning a huge amount.
I don’t think any direction it goes is especially outrageous. Maru’s fourpeat is one of those achievements that overshadows what came before.
If memory serves, nobody had made more than 2 consecutive finals before soO, and he made 4. Maru doing what he’s done has made soO’s runs less bonkers in retrospect, but at the time they were insane.
Dark may cumulatively have slightly more top 8/4 finishes, and he made more hay in the latter stages of the scene. Equally soO had to go to military not all that long after finally casting off the Kong Kurse and missed that period where Dark and Rogue were hoovering up titles
It’s that close really I wouldn’t even expend the energy of a shoulder shrug if either made top 10 at the other’s expense.
I mean with Rain the comparison is more difficult because Rain won stuff, was a pioneer in how to play protoss his way, etc. As for soO, it’s difficult to see him there but not Dark, who was the best Zerg in the world in 2016 / 2019 and remained a top Zerg for long, while winning important tournaments.
This Dark thing is so disappointing. It's been weeks of the same argument to which I can't respond despite having way more information available to me atm than you guys. Oh well, have to wait for blog stuff and hope people would be up for a good faith discussion.
That's what I was thinking of! Thanks for finding it. Also thanks for putting in so much effort defending Dark's honor =P
Haha, I'm not even a huge Dark fan. I just find extremely creative ways to procrastinate some days and that was one of those days.
On February 28 2024 00:13 Fango wrote: [quote] Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
Yeah, because one is for people saying Serral's 90 match sample size isn't enough compared to Rogue's 400 when comparing them as the greatest players ever.
Meanwhile the comment about Hurricane is just giving an example of how he isn't a throwaway player. No one is putting Hurricane on a GOAT list
Serral has a better record, against better players, has by a distance the all time peak ZvP on Aligulac, the best win rate in the matchup overall, the best win rate in the matchup versus purely Korean players.
Sure Rogue can match up very well in a GOAT shootout by virtue of many clutch performances and his trophy cabinet.
In a best ZvP shootout he really just can’t, along basically any metric you go off.
Well this I don't quite understand.
Rogue has an argument for being the GOAT, and almost all of his wins come from one matchup, yet you think he doesn't have an argument for being the best in that matchup?
Even if we're just talking stats, Serral isn't actually that far ahead...
ZvP record offline (against Korean) from 2017-2024 Serral: 72-35 (67%), 27-8 (77%) Rogue: 147-76 (66%), 52-21 (71%)
Rogue sports nearly as good a win% as Serral while playing over TWICE as much. Is that not more impressive? You can get arbitrary and say Serral played a slightly tougher on average opponent (he still has guys like Hurricane and Zoun in there mind), but then Rogue had to prepare for twice as many matches and still hit such a winrate.
Now, if you're looking past the flat statistics like that anyway, then there's others that go in favour of Rogue.
ZvP finals. Serral is 2-0, Rogue is 7-0. Surely you weight finals as more important than any other match? Extend that to ro4+finals, Serral is 6-3 (67%). Rogue is 8-2 (80%).
And I'll throw in some history changing ZvP matches mentioned in the Rogue highlight thread.
Classic won SSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season Rain won GSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season herO won SSL S3 2015, lost game 7 in the Proleague playoffs to Rogue the following week Zest won GSL S1 2016 and lost not one but two Proleague ace matches to Rogue right before and right after
He was ruining the best protoss players dreams while they were in their primes, years before he was even a championship contender.
Also noteworthy imo that in 2 of Rogues world championship runs he stomped the player that beat Serral.
Surely that has to count for something too, I think Rogue definitely has a case for best ZvP if we put extra value on the most important matches. If we consider online/unimportant matches just as highly then it's Serral but I disagree with that approach
This is just WombaT’s LawTM, decreed at the very dawn of time itself:
’In a tournament most premier, no Protoss can hope to triumph if two Zergs must they slay’.
I do legitimately think it held true for a good long stretch, perhaps years from when I coined it. I may actually go check it out properly! Trap ended up breaking it at one of those Dreamhack events when he took out Reynor and Serral.
On February 28 2024 00:32 WombaT wrote: [quote] I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
Yeah, because one is for people saying Serral's 90 match sample size isn't enough compared to Rogue's 400 when comparing them as the greatest players ever.
Meanwhile the comment about Hurricane is just giving an example of how he isn't a throwaway player. No one is putting Hurricane on a GOAT list
Serral has a better record, against better players, has by a distance the all time peak ZvP on Aligulac, the best win rate in the matchup overall, the best win rate in the matchup versus purely Korean players.
Sure Rogue can match up very well in a GOAT shootout by virtue of many clutch performances and his trophy cabinet.
In a best ZvP shootout he really just can’t, along basically any metric you go off.
Well this I don't quite understand.
Rogue has an argument for being the GOAT, and almost all of his wins come from one matchup, yet you think he doesn't have an argument for being the best in that matchup?
Even if we're just talking stats, Serral isn't actually that far ahead...
ZvP record offline (against Korean) from 2017-2024 Serral: 72-35 (67%), 27-8 (77%) Rogue: 147-76 (66%), 52-21 (71%)
Rogue sports nearly as good a win% as Serral while playing over TWICE as much. Is that not more impressive? You can get arbitrary and say Serral played a slightly tougher on average opponent (he still has guys like Hurricane and Zoun in there mind), but then Rogue had to prepare for twice as many matches and still hit such a winrate.
Now, if you're looking past the flat statistics like that anyway, then there's others that go in favour of Rogue.
ZvP finals. Serral is 2-0, Rogue is 7-0. Surely you weight finals as more important than any other match? Extend that to ro4+finals, Serral is 6-3 (67%). Rogue is 8-2 (80%).
And I'll throw in some history changing ZvP matches mentioned in the Rogue highlight thread.
Classic won SSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season Rain won GSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season herO won SSL S3 2015, lost game 7 in the Proleague playoffs to Rogue the following week Zest won GSL S1 2016 and lost not one but two Proleague ace matches to Rogue right before and right after
He was ruining the best protoss players dreams while they were in their primes, years before he was even a championship contender.
Also noteworthy imo that in 2 of Rogues world championship runs he stomped the player that beat Serral.
Surely that has to count for something too, I think Rogue definitely has a case for best ZvP if we put extra value on the most important matches. If we consider online/unimportant matches just as highly then it's Serral but I disagree with that approach
In my head, Serral is just slightly above Rogue. But then I'm reminded that Rogue had to go to the military, when it seemed like Rogue was maybe only hitting new peaks. It's really too sad Rogue couldn't have stuck around for 1-2 more years, probably the end of the modern KR SC2 scene, to see how he and Serral stack up. Maru seems to have plateau'd for the most part, based on Rogue usually coming out on top over Maru, and Serral over Maru too. Perhaps Rogue could have stopped Serral and been the #1 GOAT. (As a Rogue fan I think there's a chance, though realistically I don't think Rogue would have gotten as high of a winrate or consistency as Serral).
Indeed, plus there was that fun clash of approaches where Rogue would delve deep into the depths of his considerable cunning and find ways to win. And not just win but absolutely stomp people and break many a fanboy’s heart (Trap noooooooo).
Not that he’s lacking in skill himself, but it would have been a nice contrast to Maru’s ‘I’m just more skilled than everyone and I’ll outplay them’ kind of vibe, which is kind of how Serral rolls except it perhaps leaves some cold because he doesn’t have those high/low moments or much vulnerability, it’s just relentless.
Thank god we still have a Gumiho, a Byun and a Dark floating around, these days it feels top players of their respective races all play rather similarly, just to differing levels. Protoss is a bit more varied but we just don’t have top players :p
Tis a Rogue/Climax appreciation after all and I do wanna pay credit to the evil bastard great man rather than talk too much about other players.
One of history’s greatest monsters really. Life schedule generally meant I had to hold off, resist my usual urge to refresh TL every 16 seconds and catch GSLs via VoDs.
The two notable recent exceptions?
‘Well it’s my boy Trap in a GSL final, I gotta catch that one live.’ ‘Wow it’s Maru going for G5L, it’s Maru versus Rogue, this could be a historic moment, will somebody finally get their hands on the trophy made for Mvp all those years ago? And if not well, we may have a series for the ages ahead of us’.
For. Fuck’s. Sake.
I feel the only thing Rogue was missing was actually being a total bastard in all things, just to really seal the villain deal. Alas he’s a damn likeable fellow!
On February 28 2024 00:37 Charoisaur wrote: [quote] Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
Yeah, because one is for people saying Serral's 90 match sample size isn't enough compared to Rogue's 400 when comparing them as the greatest players ever.
Meanwhile the comment about Hurricane is just giving an example of how he isn't a throwaway player. No one is putting Hurricane on a GOAT list
Serral has a better record, against better players, has by a distance the all time peak ZvP on Aligulac, the best win rate in the matchup overall, the best win rate in the matchup versus purely Korean players.
Sure Rogue can match up very well in a GOAT shootout by virtue of many clutch performances and his trophy cabinet.
In a best ZvP shootout he really just can’t, along basically any metric you go off.
Well this I don't quite understand.
Rogue has an argument for being the GOAT, and almost all of his wins come from one matchup, yet you think he doesn't have an argument for being the best in that matchup?
Even if we're just talking stats, Serral isn't actually that far ahead...
ZvP record offline (against Korean) from 2017-2024 Serral: 72-35 (67%), 27-8 (77%) Rogue: 147-76 (66%), 52-21 (71%)
Rogue sports nearly as good a win% as Serral while playing over TWICE as much. Is that not more impressive? You can get arbitrary and say Serral played a slightly tougher on average opponent (he still has guys like Hurricane and Zoun in there mind), but then Rogue had to prepare for twice as many matches and still hit such a winrate.
Now, if you're looking past the flat statistics like that anyway, then there's others that go in favour of Rogue.
ZvP finals. Serral is 2-0, Rogue is 7-0. Surely you weight finals as more important than any other match? Extend that to ro4+finals, Serral is 6-3 (67%). Rogue is 8-2 (80%).
And I'll throw in some history changing ZvP matches mentioned in the Rogue highlight thread.
Classic won SSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season Rain won GSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season herO won SSL S3 2015, lost game 7 in the Proleague playoffs to Rogue the following week Zest won GSL S1 2016 and lost not one but two Proleague ace matches to Rogue right before and right after
He was ruining the best protoss players dreams while they were in their primes, years before he was even a championship contender.
Also noteworthy imo that in 2 of Rogues world championship runs he stomped the player that beat Serral.
Surely that has to count for something too, I think Rogue definitely has a case for best ZvP if we put extra value on the most important matches. If we consider online/unimportant matches just as highly then it's Serral but I disagree with that approach
In my head, Serral is just slightly above Rogue. But then I'm reminded that Rogue had to go to the military, when it seemed like Rogue was maybe only hitting new peaks. It's really too sad Rogue couldn't have stuck around for 1-2 more years, probably the end of the modern KR SC2 scene, to see how he and Serral stack up. Maru seems to have plateau'd for the most part, based on Rogue usually coming out on top over Maru, and Serral over Maru too. Perhaps Rogue could have stopped Serral and been the #1 GOAT. (As a Rogue fan I think there's a chance, though realistically I don't think Rogue would have gotten as high of a winrate or consistency as Serral).
Indeed, plus there was that fun clash of approaches where Rogue would delve deep into the depths of his considerable cunning and find ways to win. And not just win but absolutely stomp people and break many a fanboy’s heart (Trap noooooooo).
Not that he’s lacking in skill himself, but it would have been a nice contrast to Maru’s ‘I’m just more skilled than everyone and I’ll outplay them’ kind of vibe, which is kind of how Serral rolls except it perhaps leaves some cold because he doesn’t have those high/low moments or much vulnerability, it’s just relentless.
Thank god we still have a Gumiho, a Byun and a Dark floating around, these days it feels top players of their respective races all play rather similarly, just to differing levels. Protoss is a bit more varied but we just don’t have top players :p
Tis a Rogue/Climax appreciation after all and I do wanna pay credit to the evil bastard great man rather than talk too much about other players.
One of history’s greatest monsters really. Life schedule generally meant I had to hold off, resist my usual urge to refresh TL every 16 seconds and catch GSLs via VoDs.
The two notable recent exceptions?
‘Well it’s my boy Trap in a GSL final, I gotta catch that one live.’ ‘Wow it’s Maru going for G5L, it’s Maru versus Rogue, this could be a historic moment, will somebody finally get their hands on the trophy made for Mvp all those years ago? And if not well, we may have a series for the ages ahead of us’.
For. Fuck’s. Sake.
I feel the only thing Rogue was missing was actually being a total bastard in all things, just to really seal the villain deal. Alas he’s a damn likeable fellow!
Damn you're making me sad reminding me that we didn't get Maru and Rogue fighting for G5L with both of them having 4 GSL wins. But at least 1 of them (Maru) had 4 so it was still absolutely painful and hilarious how Rogue destroyed his soul epic. And we had Maru vs the other GOAT Serral in a grand finals of a WC tier event finally (Katowice).
On February 28 2024 00:13 Fango wrote: [quote] Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
Yeah, because one is for people saying Serral's 90 match sample size isn't enough compared to Rogue's 400 when comparing them as the greatest players ever.
Meanwhile the comment about Hurricane is just giving an example of how he isn't a throwaway player. No one is putting Hurricane on a GOAT list
Serral has a better record, against better players, has by a distance the all time peak ZvP on Aligulac, the best win rate in the matchup overall, the best win rate in the matchup versus purely Korean players.
Sure Rogue can match up very well in a GOAT shootout by virtue of many clutch performances and his trophy cabinet.
In a best ZvP shootout he really just can’t, along basically any metric you go off.
Well this I don't quite understand.
Rogue has an argument for being the GOAT, and almost all of his wins come from one matchup, yet you think he doesn't have an argument for being the best in that matchup?
Even if we're just talking stats, Serral isn't actually that far ahead...
ZvP record offline (against Korean) from 2017-2024 Serral: 72-35 (67%), 27-8 (77%) Rogue: 147-76 (66%), 52-21 (71%)
Rogue sports nearly as good a win% as Serral while playing over TWICE as much. Is that not more impressive? You can get arbitrary and say Serral played a slightly tougher on average opponent (he still has guys like Hurricane and Zoun in there mind), but then Rogue had to prepare for twice as many matches and still hit such a winrate.
Now, if you're looking past the flat statistics like that anyway, then there's others that go in favour of Rogue.
ZvP finals. Serral is 2-0, Rogue is 7-0. Surely you weight finals as more important than any other match? Extend that to ro4+finals, Serral is 6-3 (67%). Rogue is 8-2 (80%).
And I'll throw in some history changing ZvP matches mentioned in the Rogue highlight thread.
Classic won SSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season Rain won GSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season herO won SSL S3 2015, lost game 7 in the Proleague playoffs to Rogue the following week Zest won GSL S1 2016 and lost not one but two Proleague ace matches to Rogue right before and right after
He was ruining the best protoss players dreams while they were in their primes, years before he was even a championship contender.
Also noteworthy imo that in 2 of Rogues world championship runs he stomped the player that beat Serral.
Surely that has to count for something too, I think Rogue definitely has a case for best ZvP if we put extra value on the most important matches. If we consider online/unimportant matches just as highly then it's Serral but I disagree with that approach
There are probably a few cases where it was the other way around so I don't think that counts for anything other then Rogue probably watching the games and then be better prepared.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
Yeah, because one is for people saying Serral's 90 match sample size isn't enough compared to Rogue's 400 when comparing them as the greatest players ever.
Meanwhile the comment about Hurricane is just giving an example of how he isn't a throwaway player. No one is putting Hurricane on a GOAT list
Serral has a better record, against better players, has by a distance the all time peak ZvP on Aligulac, the best win rate in the matchup overall, the best win rate in the matchup versus purely Korean players.
Sure Rogue can match up very well in a GOAT shootout by virtue of many clutch performances and his trophy cabinet.
In a best ZvP shootout he really just can’t, along basically any metric you go off.
Well this I don't quite understand.
Rogue has an argument for being the GOAT, and almost all of his wins come from one matchup, yet you think he doesn't have an argument for being the best in that matchup?
Even if we're just talking stats, Serral isn't actually that far ahead...
ZvP record offline (against Korean) from 2017-2024 Serral: 72-35 (67%), 27-8 (77%) Rogue: 147-76 (66%), 52-21 (71%)
Rogue sports nearly as good a win% as Serral while playing over TWICE as much. Is that not more impressive? You can get arbitrary and say Serral played a slightly tougher on average opponent (he still has guys like Hurricane and Zoun in there mind), but then Rogue had to prepare for twice as many matches and still hit such a winrate.
Now, if you're looking past the flat statistics like that anyway, then there's others that go in favour of Rogue.
ZvP finals. Serral is 2-0, Rogue is 7-0. Surely you weight finals as more important than any other match? Extend that to ro4+finals, Serral is 6-3 (67%). Rogue is 8-2 (80%).
And I'll throw in some history changing ZvP matches mentioned in the Rogue highlight thread.
Classic won SSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season Rain won GSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season herO won SSL S3 2015, lost game 7 in the Proleague playoffs to Rogue the following week Zest won GSL S1 2016 and lost not one but two Proleague ace matches to Rogue right before and right after
He was ruining the best protoss players dreams while they were in their primes, years before he was even a championship contender.
Also noteworthy imo that in 2 of Rogues world championship runs he stomped the player that beat Serral.
Surely that has to count for something too, I think Rogue definitely has a case for best ZvP if we put extra value on the most important matches. If we consider online/unimportant matches just as highly then it's Serral but I disagree with that approach
In my head, Serral is just slightly above Rogue. But then I'm reminded that Rogue had to go to the military, when it seemed like Rogue was maybe only hitting new peaks. It's really too sad Rogue couldn't have stuck around for 1-2 more years, probably the end of the modern KR SC2 scene, to see how he and Serral stack up. Maru seems to have plateau'd for the most part, based on Rogue usually coming out on top over Maru, and Serral over Maru too. Perhaps Rogue could have stopped Serral and been the #1 GOAT. (As a Rogue fan I think there's a chance, though realistically I don't think Rogue would have gotten as high of a winrate or consistency as Serral).
Indeed, plus there was that fun clash of approaches where Rogue would delve deep into the depths of his considerable cunning and find ways to win. And not just win but absolutely stomp people and break many a fanboy’s heart (Trap noooooooo).
Not that he’s lacking in skill himself, but it would have been a nice contrast to Maru’s ‘I’m just more skilled than everyone and I’ll outplay them’ kind of vibe, which is kind of how Serral rolls except it perhaps leaves some cold because he doesn’t have those high/low moments or much vulnerability, it’s just relentless.
Thank god we still have a Gumiho, a Byun and a Dark floating around, these days it feels top players of their respective races all play rather similarly, just to differing levels. Protoss is a bit more varied but we just don’t have top players :p
Tis a Rogue/Climax appreciation after all and I do wanna pay credit to the evil bastard great man rather than talk too much about other players.
One of history’s greatest monsters really. Life schedule generally meant I had to hold off, resist my usual urge to refresh TL every 16 seconds and catch GSLs via VoDs.
The two notable recent exceptions?
‘Well it’s my boy Trap in a GSL final, I gotta catch that one live.’ ‘Wow it’s Maru going for G5L, it’s Maru versus Rogue, this could be a historic moment, will somebody finally get their hands on the trophy made for Mvp all those years ago? And if not well, we may have a series for the ages ahead of us’.
For. Fuck’s. Sake.
I feel the only thing Rogue was missing was actually being a total bastard in all things, just to really seal the villain deal. Alas he’s a damn likeable fellow!
Damn you're making me sad reminding me that we didn't get Maru and Rogue fighting for G5L with both of them having 4 GSL wins. But at least 1 of them (Maru) had 4 so it was still dramatic. And we had Maru vs the other GOAT Serral in a grand finals of a WC tier event finally (Katowice).
I was actually going to mention that in my post but neglected to. As much as people complain about Rogue being the hype killer, in the two most hyped final showdowns in this recent epoch (IMO) Maru just got completely stomped.
On February 28 2024 04:31 Crocolisk Dundee wrote: I want to share some great Proleague games of Rogue's, back from I watched every single match in 2015-2016.
Thanks for the recap, those were amazing Rogue games and helps put into perspective is greatness. I laughed when I heard a wolf say "Zerg have a hard time against Protoss, no idea how Rogue can do that...:" I do not think we will hear those words again in SC2.
Btw, for the curious this is the proleague theme song:
On February 28 2024 00:32 WombaT wrote: [quote] I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
Yeah, because one is for people saying Serral's 90 match sample size isn't enough compared to Rogue's 400 when comparing them as the greatest players ever.
Meanwhile the comment about Hurricane is just giving an example of how he isn't a throwaway player. No one is putting Hurricane on a GOAT list
Serral has a better record, against better players, has by a distance the all time peak ZvP on Aligulac, the best win rate in the matchup overall, the best win rate in the matchup versus purely Korean players.
Sure Rogue can match up very well in a GOAT shootout by virtue of many clutch performances and his trophy cabinet.
In a best ZvP shootout he really just can’t, along basically any metric you go off.
Well this I don't quite understand.
Rogue has an argument for being the GOAT, and almost all of his wins come from one matchup, yet you think he doesn't have an argument for being the best in that matchup?
Even if we're just talking stats, Serral isn't actually that far ahead...
ZvP record offline (against Korean) from 2017-2024 Serral: 72-35 (67%), 27-8 (77%) Rogue: 147-76 (66%), 52-21 (71%)
Rogue sports nearly as good a win% as Serral while playing over TWICE as much. Is that not more impressive? You can get arbitrary and say Serral played a slightly tougher on average opponent (he still has guys like Hurricane and Zoun in there mind), but then Rogue had to prepare for twice as many matches and still hit such a winrate.
Now, if you're looking past the flat statistics like that anyway, then there's others that go in favour of Rogue.
ZvP finals. Serral is 2-0, Rogue is 7-0. Surely you weight finals as more important than any other match? Extend that to ro4+finals, Serral is 6-3 (67%). Rogue is 8-2 (80%).
And I'll throw in some history changing ZvP matches mentioned in the Rogue highlight thread.
Classic won SSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season Rain won GSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season herO won SSL S3 2015, lost game 7 in the Proleague playoffs to Rogue the following week Zest won GSL S1 2016 and lost not one but two Proleague ace matches to Rogue right before and right after
He was ruining the best protoss players dreams while they were in their primes, years before he was even a championship contender.
Also noteworthy imo that in 2 of Rogues world championship runs he stomped the player that beat Serral.
Surely that has to count for something too, I think Rogue definitely has a case for best ZvP if we put extra value on the most important matches. If we consider online/unimportant matches just as highly then it's Serral but I disagree with that approach
There are probably a few cases where it was the other way around so I don't think that counts for anything other then Rogue probably watching the games and then be better prepared.
On February 28 2024 00:37 Charoisaur wrote: [quote] Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
Yeah, because one is for people saying Serral's 90 match sample size isn't enough compared to Rogue's 400 when comparing them as the greatest players ever.
Meanwhile the comment about Hurricane is just giving an example of how he isn't a throwaway player. No one is putting Hurricane on a GOAT list
Serral has a better record, against better players, has by a distance the all time peak ZvP on Aligulac, the best win rate in the matchup overall, the best win rate in the matchup versus purely Korean players.
Sure Rogue can match up very well in a GOAT shootout by virtue of many clutch performances and his trophy cabinet.
In a best ZvP shootout he really just can’t, along basically any metric you go off.
Well this I don't quite understand.
Rogue has an argument for being the GOAT, and almost all of his wins come from one matchup, yet you think he doesn't have an argument for being the best in that matchup?
Even if we're just talking stats, Serral isn't actually that far ahead...
ZvP record offline (against Korean) from 2017-2024 Serral: 72-35 (67%), 27-8 (77%) Rogue: 147-76 (66%), 52-21 (71%)
Rogue sports nearly as good a win% as Serral while playing over TWICE as much. Is that not more impressive? You can get arbitrary and say Serral played a slightly tougher on average opponent (he still has guys like Hurricane and Zoun in there mind), but then Rogue had to prepare for twice as many matches and still hit such a winrate.
Now, if you're looking past the flat statistics like that anyway, then there's others that go in favour of Rogue.
ZvP finals. Serral is 2-0, Rogue is 7-0. Surely you weight finals as more important than any other match? Extend that to ro4+finals, Serral is 6-3 (67%). Rogue is 8-2 (80%).
And I'll throw in some history changing ZvP matches mentioned in the Rogue highlight thread.
Classic won SSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season Rain won GSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season herO won SSL S3 2015, lost game 7 in the Proleague playoffs to Rogue the following week Zest won GSL S1 2016 and lost not one but two Proleague ace matches to Rogue right before and right after
He was ruining the best protoss players dreams while they were in their primes, years before he was even a championship contender.
Also noteworthy imo that in 2 of Rogues world championship runs he stomped the player that beat Serral.
Surely that has to count for something too, I think Rogue definitely has a case for best ZvP if we put extra value on the most important matches. If we consider online/unimportant matches just as highly then it's Serral but I disagree with that approach
There are probably a few cases where it was the other way around so I don't think that counts for anything other then Rogue probably watching the games and then be better prepared.
On February 28 2024 00:13 Fango wrote: [quote] Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
Yeah, because one is for people saying Serral's 90 match sample size isn't enough compared to Rogue's 400 when comparing them as the greatest players ever.
Meanwhile the comment about Hurricane is just giving an example of how he isn't a throwaway player. No one is putting Hurricane on a GOAT list
Serral has a better record, against better players, has by a distance the all time peak ZvP on Aligulac, the best win rate in the matchup overall, the best win rate in the matchup versus purely Korean players.
Sure Rogue can match up very well in a GOAT shootout by virtue of many clutch performances and his trophy cabinet.
In a best ZvP shootout he really just can’t, along basically any metric you go off.
Well this I don't quite understand.
Rogue has an argument for being the GOAT, and almost all of his wins come from one matchup, yet you think he doesn't have an argument for being the best in that matchup?
Even if we're just talking stats, Serral isn't actually that far ahead...
ZvP record offline (against Korean) from 2017-2024 Serral: 72-35 (67%), 27-8 (77%) Rogue: 147-76 (66%), 52-21 (71%)
Rogue sports nearly as good a win% as Serral while playing over TWICE as much. Is that not more impressive? You can get arbitrary and say Serral played a slightly tougher on average opponent (he still has guys like Hurricane and Zoun in there mind), but then Rogue had to prepare for twice as many matches and still hit such a winrate.
Now, if you're looking past the flat statistics like that anyway, then there's others that go in favour of Rogue.
ZvP finals. Serral is 2-0, Rogue is 7-0. Surely you weight finals as more important than any other match? Extend that to ro4+finals, Serral is 6-3 (67%). Rogue is 8-2 (80%).
And I'll throw in some history changing ZvP matches mentioned in the Rogue highlight thread.
Classic won SSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season Rain won GSL S2 2015, was eliminated by Rogue next season herO won SSL S3 2015, lost game 7 in the Proleague playoffs to Rogue the following week Zest won GSL S1 2016 and lost not one but two Proleague ace matches to Rogue right before and right after
He was ruining the best protoss players dreams while they were in their primes, years before he was even a championship contender.
Also noteworthy imo that in 2 of Rogues world championship runs he stomped the player that beat Serral.
Surely that has to count for something too, I think Rogue definitely has a case for best ZvP if we put extra value on the most important matches. If we consider online/unimportant matches just as highly then it's Serral but I disagree with that approach
You can find whatever random statistic if you filter deep enough, and it's basically this whole thread, nitpicking to the extreme.
Those winrate filters for ZvP make it so Serral is only playing the very best Korean Protosses while they're doing well (aka they qualified for big tournaments), Rogue is playing a lot more lower level rated protosses, so no its not even close to the same.
On February 28 2024 06:45 Captain Peabody wrote: Rogue has the honor of being perhaps my most hated player ever--who I eventually learned to appreciate, perhaps even in a way to love. (After all, the closest thing to love is often hatred.) I'm a sucker for narratives, tryhards, underdogs, and Protoss: the things Rogue seemed to exist to crush into the dirt with utter callous merciless disregard. I will never forgive him for ending soO's dream, or Trap's dream, or Trap's dream again, or herO's dream, or...
And his play certainly matched that villain mindset. I don't think I've ever been more disgusted with the game of Starcraft, nay, the whole RTS genre, nay, videogaming itself, than in that one final (iirc against Trap) where he just shamelessly abused Nydus/Swarm Host and Infested Terrans over and over and over again like the true disgusting bastard bully he is. It can be tempting to think of Rogue as a kind of super-sOs, but while sOs seemed to just enjoy playing the game as weirdly and creatively and scrappily as possible whether he won or lost, Rogue's play seemed to embody some unholy fusion of boredom, stability, laziness, and calculated cruelty.
Lest this seem too harsh, let me just say that all the above is, from a slightly different point of view, high praise indeed. There have always been the bully zergs, the villain zergs, the Patchzergs, the Idras and Nerchios and rorOs and Snipers of this world. Yet none of them ever honed their craft or reached anywhere near Rogue's level either of skill or evil.
In the end, before he retired I admit I came to respect, even bear a sort of grudging affection for, Rogue's raw talent, his skill, his dedication to his own monstrously evil Way, his brilliance in carrying out that Way, even his laziness in refusing to ever do anything else or practice when he couldn't inflict maximum cruelty by so doing.
So I salute the bastard; I praise him. We will never see his like again.
This and his trophy cabinet is why he's probably the real GOAT in my book.
On February 28 2024 13:59 swarminfestor wrote: Rogue, is the best player I have encountered. Just love everything about him, his villianism (some like to gaslight about him while some may appreciates his art of playing in unorthodox ways), his mannerism personality, his madness, his poker face, his final BO7 records, his complete stomp of herO, Maru, Serral, Classic, Zest, Stats and Trap in final BO7 matches ended up incurring wrath from his opponents' fans and also everyone riding on casters' bias.
I am completely immersed in Sc2 story lines after he thrashed herO in final of IEM Shanghai, followed him and supported him all the ways till he retired (maybe for good?) last two years. Therefore, I didn't actively participate the forum discussions since then because I felt completely devastated after knowing he couldn't play anymore. No person ever can be like him. He is my ultimate bias. Thank you for all the memories he gave me during 2017-2022.
Farewell.
Note: I know Mizenhaur will definitely put Serral above him in this ranking which I disagrees the most, so as much as I love this piece in comparison with Mizenhaur's old post about him (please refer: https://tl.net/forum/starcraft-2/530039-the-emperor-has-no-clothes-rogues-future-legacy), I will disdain myself from commenting further. Let Serral fans enjoy whatever they may have to write after the no.1 name would be announced in the next few days onward.
You are aware I wrote all of these extremely complimentary articles about Rogue...right?
Here's a brief excerpt from article number four to wet your whistle
"Halfway through 2022, it’s safe to say that Rogue has created a legacy that stands out on its own. He has done so on the back of championship after championship, beating every kind of challenger in high pressure situations. Where others wax and wane with time, Rogue is immutable. Where others go years without winning a title, Rogue is inevitable. Where others win and lose finals in equal measure, Rogue hasn't even had to play a game seven. The simple fact is that there will never be another like him. And, while you can call him a legend, the GOAT, the king of Best of 7s or any other moniker under the sun, none of them adequately describe what he has become. For Rogue is the greatest champion StarCraft II has ever known. And he will never be anything less."
Rogue has this crazy bo7 record. But how do the stats look, if we just look at every finals? ex. TaeJa has incredible winrate in finals, but many were probably bo5's, I'd be interested to see this.
I like the rest of your post but this is actually a huge mistatement. Rogue actually had *remarkably* bad ZvP. I checked this on Aligulac a year back or so, but he actually has a losing win rate (sub 50) against the top tosses from like 2019 onwards or something like that (Zest, Trap, Stats, e.g.)
But he knew how to win in big tournaments and everyone remembers him just absolutely crushing tosses in finals, which created a myth he was generally great at ZvP. No. He was great at finals.
It's Serral who has the best ZvP of all time.
I thought so too but in the stats Miz posted Rogues ZvP map winrate offline vs koreans is only 1.3% lower than Serrals
But this doesn't even mean that much to me because a huge chunk of rogues prime took place during the pandemic, when every tournament was online for like a year and a half. Why are we excluding that? And the offline only stat maybe has more value pre 2018 or so, but major international online tournaments are pretty much the bedrock of modern SC2 for the past six five years or so. Again, weird to exclude.
And I suppose for whatever it's worth maybe you can't say Rogue had bad ZVP considering his offline results. But I'm definitely never going to call someone "the best ZvP of all time" who literally has sub 50% win rates against the best toss players overall.
Because none of Rogue's championships were in the online era, except one GSL that was offline anyway. His legendary run was 2017-18, he then won the 2020 WC and GSLs in 19, 20, 21, and 22.
You can read in the article that Rogue had an almost Serral -like winrate Vs top protoss players offline. Which accounts for almost every relavent event. Even adjusting for including online (which includes mostly irrelevant tournaments) his winrate is still 66% from 2017 onwards against protoss.
I don't know where you're getting this idea of sub-50% from.
I’ve been noodling away on Aligulac, bemoaning my lack of a desktop PC in lieu of a phone! I’m unsure where 50% is coming from :S
Anyway picking an arbitrary cutoff, January 1st 2017, offline only, South Korean opposition:
Serral is 72–35[\i] (67.29%) in games and 27–8(77.14%) in matches.
Rogue is 147–76(65.92%) in games and 52–21(71.23%) in matches.
Bear in mind that Serral is only playing Korean Toss players good enough to make the big offline events, where Rogue has more opportunity to play the lesser Korean Toss in early GSL rounds. Also, as per my previous stat dump, the Covid-induced offline premier period really makes it difficult to filter easily to do a direct Premier tournament comparison.
Filtering for offline online cuts out some big, big online tournaments, but dropping the filter introduces a bunch of way less prestigious tournaments.
Even on that data, with the aforementioned caveats Serral is still ahead, and I’d wager he’d be even further ahead if we’re counting premier online tournaments.
Rogue’s numbers bear out that he is a ZvP monster, just Serral is [i]the ZvP monster.
I just hope someone reads this and my previous stats dump as my god trying to do this on a phone is tortuous :p
Who are these korean protoss players that Rogue is facing offline which aren't good enough to make the big offline events? That was maybe a thing in the Kespa era but nowadays korean Protoss players that are still active are able to make the big offline events. Creator and Zoun are probably the 'worst' ones in recent years and Serral was facing both in offline events.
Ever heard of legendary Korean Protoss players like Hurricane, Patience, Super, Yeri, JYP, Dandy, Billowy, YB?
Just from some quick search on Aligulac with filters of offline Korean Protoss Rogue has played against since 2017
Ah, I see I forgot GSL qualifiers are offline and there are some no-names in there. Hurricane though when he still played, faced and beat Serral at IEM Katowice (2019?) so he's not a good example
There are people thinking Serral's 90 offline matches against Korean Protoss is not enough sample size, and there are people thinking Hurricane's one bo3 win over Serral is enough sample size.
ssmple size for what? Like Fango said, it was just a comment about how Hurricane doesn't deserve to be listed among the other players as some throwaway player as he was pretty legit (Patience probably doesn't either he made a HSC finals)
Patience defeated Zest to win that HSC, I know because I am a Patience fanboi.
On February 27 2024 18:52 RPR_Tempest wrote: Agreed that Rogue might have the all-time greatest career, but isn't the all-time greatest player.
Apart from the Bo7 thing, he felt like a guy that was real good and just happened to win. He never felt, like, above the rest of the pack. I think the biggest knock against Rogue's GOAT case is that there was never any point in his career that he felt like the best player in the world. The guy you point to and say "He's favoured against anybody." Just a really weird lack of aura most likely caused by his lack of consistency.
I think he was the favourite after winning the GSL to win the World Championsship and he did. I don't really know if aura counts for anything, what if everyone is just wrong about a person? For instance, many called this guy a patch zerg, abuser, or simply lucky. But being the most consistent player in bo7's means that this is just all bullshit. Stephano had the aura, but how much did he really win. I dno, I just think many people hated Rogue, because they did not understand him, he's a super hard worker and he is obviously intelligent.
On February 28 2024 00:45 Regisko wrote: I can't accept any result except of Life being top-3 (probably 2nd), and Serral being outside top-3.
Then you can skip the rest of this list. Not only did Mizenhauer on multiple occasion state that Life won't be on it, but there is a 100% guarantee that Serral will atleast be in the Top 2. Even if you somehow think he isn't in the Top 3, not putting him in the Top 10 would be almost as ridiculous as thinking a convicted cheater should even be in the discussion of being the GREATEST (not best) of All Time.
Does greatest mean that you have to be virtuous? if so, Fruitdealer can be the GOAT for winning for his family, or Duckdeok, because that guy seems really nice.
EPT![[image loading]](https://tl.net/staff/Waxangel/GOAT2024/TY9/chart2.png)
![[image loading]](https://tl.net/staff/Waxangel/GOAT2024/TY9/chart4.png)
![[image loading]](https://tl.net/staff/Waxangel/GOAT2024/TY9/chart3.png)
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