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The problem with aligulac isn't the algorithm per se.
It's the fact that it takes all games into account equally (you could reach number 1 purely from online matches for example). In some ways this isn't a issue, as aligulac is used to predict the outcome of any game to begin with, and in this sense it works. It becomes a problem if you simply don't care about irrelevent/online/show matches.
The other issue is fact that the starcraft circuit is split between foreigners and koreans. As players from the two circuits compete less often, the difference in ratings between them will eventually become lower as there's no way for the system to account for differences in skill. (In the same way that being 7K mmr on europe server is less impressive than 7k on korea server for example.)
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On August 24 2019 03:18 Balkow wrote:maru was the only terran in RO8 gsl+ WESG and proceeded to win both of those. what i wonder about is serral good enough to be the only Zerg in RO8 of premier tournaments and proceed to win those tournaments?
In terms of skill, absolutely. Serral is that much better than other zergs that him winning in a situation where no others make ro8 is realistic.
That being said however, zerg has been dominating since 2017. Which includes every time Serral has gone deep in a tournament. So it's impossible to say for sure. INnoVation in his prime for instance looks better than every other terran, yet has barely ever been the sole terran in a ro8 (let alone win while being the sole terran). He's just not able to win without a favourable meta despite having some of the strongest wins in sc2 history.
Also zerg is good enough that none in a ro8 seems impossible at this point. At least not if foreigners are present in the event (I can see a gsl ro8 being no zerg tbh).
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On August 24 2019 03:36 Fango wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2019 03:18 Balkow wrote:maru was the only terran in RO8 gsl+ WESG and proceeded to win both of those. what i wonder about is serral good enough to be the only Zerg in RO8 of premier tournaments and proceed to win those tournaments? In terms of skill, absolutely. Serral is that much better than other zergs that him winning in a situation where no others make ro8 is realistic. That being said however, zerg has been dominating since 2017. Which includes every time Serral has gone deep in a tournament. So it's impossible to say for sure. INnoVation in his prime for instance looks better than every other terran, yet has barely ever been the sole terran in a ro8 (let alone win while being the sole terran). He's just not able to win without a favourable meta despite having some of the strongest wins in sc2 history. Also zerg is good enough that none in a ro8 seems impossible at this point. At least not if foreigners are present in the event (I can see a gsl ro8 being no zerg tbh).
thanks for the reply, you understood my question completely. i think the reason so many people have a hard time accepting serral as number 1 is because zerg is also dominating now. wins more than half of the tournaments + is present in 95ish% of all finals. it was much easier to accept maru as number 1 when maru won and the rest of the terran race was doing bad.
i rewatched serral vs maru from 1-2 years ago, when raven was still strong and maru 3/0 serral. terran at that point to zerg. is as zerg is to terran now. back then zerg could be hugely ahead in resources but lost to ravens. now terran can be hugely ahead and lose to infestors-brood lords.
but based on statistics i honestly dont know if serral is good enough to dominate without a zerg favored meta.
at current balance we cant deny that serral is number one. but we cant deny that Zerg is the best race also, no matter what dark says.
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On August 24 2019 04:12 Balkow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2019 03:36 Fango wrote:On August 24 2019 03:18 Balkow wrote:maru was the only terran in RO8 gsl+ WESG and proceeded to win both of those. what i wonder about is serral good enough to be the only Zerg in RO8 of premier tournaments and proceed to win those tournaments? In terms of skill, absolutely. Serral is that much better than other zergs that him winning in a situation where no others make ro8 is realistic. That being said however, zerg has been dominating since 2017. Which includes every time Serral has gone deep in a tournament. So it's impossible to say for sure. INnoVation in his prime for instance looks better than every other terran, yet has barely ever been the sole terran in a ro8 (let alone win while being the sole terran). He's just not able to win without a favourable meta despite having some of the strongest wins in sc2 history. Also zerg is good enough that none in a ro8 seems impossible at this point. At least not if foreigners are present in the event (I can see a gsl ro8 being no zerg tbh). thanks for the reply, you understood my question completely. i think the reason so many people have a hard time accepting serral as number 1 is because zerg is also dominating now. wins more than half of the tournaments + is present in 95ish% of all finals. it was much easier to accept maru as number 1 when maru won and the rest of the terran race was doing bad. i rewatched serral vs maru from 1-2 years ago, when raven was still strong and maru 3/0 serral. terran at that point to zerg. is as zerg is to terran now. back then zerg could be hugely ahead in resources but lost to ravens. now terran can be hugely ahead and lose to infestors-brood lords. but based on statistics i honestly dont know if serral is good enough to dominate without a zerg favored meta. at current balance we cant deny that serral is number one. but we cant deny that Zerg is the best race also, no matter what dark says.
Go watch how Zerg other than Serral were doing in Premier tournaments while he was at his peak, your question has already been answered.
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On August 24 2019 04:51 Xain0n wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2019 04:12 Balkow wrote:On August 24 2019 03:36 Fango wrote:On August 24 2019 03:18 Balkow wrote:maru was the only terran in RO8 gsl+ WESG and proceeded to win both of those. what i wonder about is serral good enough to be the only Zerg in RO8 of premier tournaments and proceed to win those tournaments? In terms of skill, absolutely. Serral is that much better than other zergs that him winning in a situation where no others make ro8 is realistic. That being said however, zerg has been dominating since 2017. Which includes every time Serral has gone deep in a tournament. So it's impossible to say for sure. INnoVation in his prime for instance looks better than every other terran, yet has barely ever been the sole terran in a ro8 (let alone win while being the sole terran). He's just not able to win without a favourable meta despite having some of the strongest wins in sc2 history. Also zerg is good enough that none in a ro8 seems impossible at this point. At least not if foreigners are present in the event (I can see a gsl ro8 being no zerg tbh). thanks for the reply, you understood my question completely. i think the reason so many people have a hard time accepting serral as number 1 is because zerg is also dominating now. wins more than half of the tournaments + is present in 95ish% of all finals. it was much easier to accept maru as number 1 when maru won and the rest of the terran race was doing bad. i rewatched serral vs maru from 1-2 years ago, when raven was still strong and maru 3/0 serral. terran at that point to zerg. is as zerg is to terran now. back then zerg could be hugely ahead in resources but lost to ravens. now terran can be hugely ahead and lose to infestors-brood lords. but based on statistics i honestly dont know if serral is good enough to dominate without a zerg favored meta. at current balance we cant deny that serral is number one. but we cant deny that Zerg is the best race also, no matter what dark says. Go watch how Zerg other than Serral were doing in Premier tournaments while he was at his peak, your question has already been answered.
3 Zergs in Blizzcon ro8, 2 Zergs in GSL vs the world ro4. Those Zergs only lost in ZvZ. WCS Montreal ZvZ finals.
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France13018 Posts
On August 24 2019 04:51 Xain0n wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2019 04:12 Balkow wrote:On August 24 2019 03:36 Fango wrote:On August 24 2019 03:18 Balkow wrote:maru was the only terran in RO8 gsl+ WESG and proceeded to win both of those. what i wonder about is serral good enough to be the only Zerg in RO8 of premier tournaments and proceed to win those tournaments? In terms of skill, absolutely. Serral is that much better than other zergs that him winning in a situation where no others make ro8 is realistic. That being said however, zerg has been dominating since 2017. Which includes every time Serral has gone deep in a tournament. So it's impossible to say for sure. INnoVation in his prime for instance looks better than every other terran, yet has barely ever been the sole terran in a ro8 (let alone win while being the sole terran). He's just not able to win without a favourable meta despite having some of the strongest wins in sc2 history. Also zerg is good enough that none in a ro8 seems impossible at this point. At least not if foreigners are present in the event (I can see a gsl ro8 being no zerg tbh). thanks for the reply, you understood my question completely. i think the reason so many people have a hard time accepting serral as number 1 is because zerg is also dominating now. wins more than half of the tournaments + is present in 95ish% of all finals. it was much easier to accept maru as number 1 when maru won and the rest of the terran race was doing bad. i rewatched serral vs maru from 1-2 years ago, when raven was still strong and maru 3/0 serral. terran at that point to zerg. is as zerg is to terran now. back then zerg could be hugely ahead in resources but lost to ravens. now terran can be hugely ahead and lose to infestors-brood lords. but based on statistics i honestly dont know if serral is good enough to dominate without a zerg favored meta. at current balance we cant deny that serral is number one. but we cant deny that Zerg is the best race also, no matter what dark says. Go watch how Zerg other than Serral were doing in Premier tournaments while he was at his peak, your question has already been answered.
They were doing fine, better than terran (since we are doing other than Maru for KR as well ^^):
WCS Circuit top 13 2018
 Zerg (excluding Serral) 2320+2295+2030+1950+1835=10430
 Protoss 3270+2910+2490+1780=10450
 Terran 3150+2760+2130=8040
WCS Korea top 13 2018
Terran (excluding Maru) 6200+3575=9775
Protoss 7675+6825+6275+4325+3525+3000=31625
Zerg 6150+5475+3425+3225=18275
Source:  Portal:2018 WCS
But in KR they were less dominant than protoss, probably because there are less top zergs than top protosses there? Idk, it's still a very healthy amount of WCS points.
I'd have done top 16 instead of 13 but the link I found first had weirdly only 13 entries.
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On August 24 2019 04:51 Xain0n wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2019 04:12 Balkow wrote:On August 24 2019 03:36 Fango wrote:On August 24 2019 03:18 Balkow wrote:maru was the only terran in RO8 gsl+ WESG and proceeded to win both of those. what i wonder about is serral good enough to be the only Zerg in RO8 of premier tournaments and proceed to win those tournaments? In terms of skill, absolutely. Serral is that much better than other zergs that him winning in a situation where no others make ro8 is realistic. That being said however, zerg has been dominating since 2017. Which includes every time Serral has gone deep in a tournament. So it's impossible to say for sure. INnoVation in his prime for instance looks better than every other terran, yet has barely ever been the sole terran in a ro8 (let alone win while being the sole terran). He's just not able to win without a favourable meta despite having some of the strongest wins in sc2 history. Also zerg is good enough that none in a ro8 seems impossible at this point. At least not if foreigners are present in the event (I can see a gsl ro8 being no zerg tbh). thanks for the reply, you understood my question completely. i think the reason so many people have a hard time accepting serral as number 1 is because zerg is also dominating now. wins more than half of the tournaments + is present in 95ish% of all finals. it was much easier to accept maru as number 1 when maru won and the rest of the terran race was doing bad. i rewatched serral vs maru from 1-2 years ago, when raven was still strong and maru 3/0 serral. terran at that point to zerg. is as zerg is to terran now. back then zerg could be hugely ahead in resources but lost to ravens. now terran can be hugely ahead and lose to infestors-brood lords. but based on statistics i honestly dont know if serral is good enough to dominate without a zerg favored meta. at current balance we cant deny that serral is number one. but we cant deny that Zerg is the best race also, no matter what dark says. Go watch how Zerg other than Serral were doing in Premier tournaments while he was at his peak, your question has already been answered.
They mostly lost to Serral though. Without Serral, Elazer/Scarlett/Reynor win all the WCS events. Blizzcon and GSL vs TW could easily have gone to Rogue or Dark.
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On August 24 2019 04:12 Balkow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2019 03:36 Fango wrote:On August 24 2019 03:18 Balkow wrote:maru was the only terran in RO8 gsl+ WESG and proceeded to win both of those. what i wonder about is serral good enough to be the only Zerg in RO8 of premier tournaments and proceed to win those tournaments? In terms of skill, absolutely. Serral is that much better than other zergs that him winning in a situation where no others make ro8 is realistic. That being said however, zerg has been dominating since 2017. Which includes every time Serral has gone deep in a tournament. So it's impossible to say for sure. INnoVation in his prime for instance looks better than every other terran, yet has barely ever been the sole terran in a ro8 (let alone win while being the sole terran). He's just not able to win without a favourable meta despite having some of the strongest wins in sc2 history. Also zerg is good enough that none in a ro8 seems impossible at this point. At least not if foreigners are present in the event (I can see a gsl ro8 being no zerg tbh). thanks for the reply, you understood my question completely. i think the reason so many people have a hard time accepting serral as number 1 is because zerg is also dominating now. wins more than half of the tournaments + is present in 95ish% of all finals. it was much easier to accept maru as number 1 when maru won and the rest of the terran race was doing bad.
Just for curiosity, the only players to win tournaments while being the sole X race in the ro8 are:
Fruitdealer - GSL S1
MMA - MLG Columbis 2011
DRG - GSL S1 2012
HerO - NASL S4 2012
Life - MLG 2013, Blizzcon 2014
Stardust - Dreamhack summer 2012
MMA - WCS S3 europe 2013
Taeja - Dreamhack summer 2014
Polt - WCS winter 2016
Neeb - WCS Montreal 2017
Maru - WeSG 2017, GSL S1 2018
Also shoutout to Maru for being the sole terran of like 4-5 GSL seasons
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[/QUOTE]
Go watch how Zerg other than Serral were doing in Premier tournaments while he was at his peak, your question has already been answered.[/QUOTE]
[/QUOTE]
3 Zergs in Blizzcon ro8, 2 Zergs in GSL vs the world ro4. Those Zergs only lost in ZvZ. WCS Montreal ZvZ finals.
[/QUOTE]
and if we bring in WCS statistics, its probably like 5/8 ZVZ finals or something?
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Great tournament. I haven't watched all the games yet, but some of what I have watched were epic.
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On August 24 2019 05:17 Fango wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2019 04:12 Balkow wrote:On August 24 2019 03:36 Fango wrote:On August 24 2019 03:18 Balkow wrote:maru was the only terran in RO8 gsl+ WESG and proceeded to win both of those. what i wonder about is serral good enough to be the only Zerg in RO8 of premier tournaments and proceed to win those tournaments? In terms of skill, absolutely. Serral is that much better than other zergs that him winning in a situation where no others make ro8 is realistic. That being said however, zerg has been dominating since 2017. Which includes every time Serral has gone deep in a tournament. So it's impossible to say for sure. INnoVation in his prime for instance looks better than every other terran, yet has barely ever been the sole terran in a ro8 (let alone win while being the sole terran). He's just not able to win without a favourable meta despite having some of the strongest wins in sc2 history. Also zerg is good enough that none in a ro8 seems impossible at this point. At least not if foreigners are present in the event (I can see a gsl ro8 being no zerg tbh). thanks for the reply, you understood my question completely. i think the reason so many people have a hard time accepting serral as number 1 is because zerg is also dominating now. wins more than half of the tournaments + is present in 95ish% of all finals. it was much easier to accept maru as number 1 when maru won and the rest of the terran race was doing bad. Just for curiosity, the only players to win tournaments while being the sole X race in the ro8 are: Fruitdealer - GSL S1 MMA - MLG Columbis 2011 DRG - GSL S1 2012 HerO - NASL S4 2012 Life - MLG 2013, Blizzcon 2014 Stardust - Dreamhack summer 2012 MMA - WCS S3 europe 2013 Taeja - Dreamhack summer 2014 Polt - WCS winter 2016 Neeb - WCS Montreal 2017 Maru - WeSG 2017, GSL S1 2018 Also shoutout to Maru for being the sole terran of like 4-5 GSL seasons
So Neeb best foreigner of all time confirmed. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
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>[/QUOTE]
>3 Zergs in Blizzcon ro8, 2 Zergs in GSL vs the world ro4. Those Zergs only lost in ZvZ. WCS Montreal ZvZ finals.
>[/QUOTE]
Funny shit, this is so obvious you're cherry picking, using different standards for different tournaments.
Let's actually be TRY to objective:
GSL v Word: 2 of 8 Z
GSL S1: 2 of 8 Z
GSL S2: 2 of 8 Z
GSL ST: 0 of 8 Z
ASUS ROG: 2 of 8 Z
HSC: 2 of 6 Z (bracket kinda weird)
We can even do WCS!
WCS Summer: 3 of 8 Z
WCS Spring: 3 of 8 Z
ZeRG So DoMinAANT!!!
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Honestly, I don't really think any race is op atm. These are massive generalizations but for past 3 years, Terran has been best at winning GSL and WESG, Zerg is best at winning other tournaments (2/3 IEM WC, 2/3 Blizzcon, most WCS Circuit, etc). Protoss gets short end of the stick in both criteria but it has the most top 20 players (kind of reminds me of Brood War and the Six Dragons).
Elazer's point that the balance is good but the design is really bad seems most reasonable. Zerg is good in late-game but vulnerable in mid-game for example. So while I can sympathize with people who are bothered by how Serral makes Zerg lategame look so broken, I don't think it is an unfair advantage in the grand scheme of things. I think Serral is the furthest thing from a patch zerg because he got as far as he did mainly because of his great defense, multitask and game sense. None of these things are hurt/helped much by meta changes, unlike micro (as seen in effect of the Reaper nerf on ByuN's performance).
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On August 24 2019 05:04 Poopi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2019 04:51 Xain0n wrote:On August 24 2019 04:12 Balkow wrote:On August 24 2019 03:36 Fango wrote:On August 24 2019 03:18 Balkow wrote:maru was the only terran in RO8 gsl+ WESG and proceeded to win both of those. what i wonder about is serral good enough to be the only Zerg in RO8 of premier tournaments and proceed to win those tournaments? In terms of skill, absolutely. Serral is that much better than other zergs that him winning in a situation where no others make ro8 is realistic. That being said however, zerg has been dominating since 2017. Which includes every time Serral has gone deep in a tournament. So it's impossible to say for sure. INnoVation in his prime for instance looks better than every other terran, yet has barely ever been the sole terran in a ro8 (let alone win while being the sole terran). He's just not able to win without a favourable meta despite having some of the strongest wins in sc2 history. Also zerg is good enough that none in a ro8 seems impossible at this point. At least not if foreigners are present in the event (I can see a gsl ro8 being no zerg tbh). thanks for the reply, you understood my question completely. i think the reason so many people have a hard time accepting serral as number 1 is because zerg is also dominating now. wins more than half of the tournaments + is present in 95ish% of all finals. it was much easier to accept maru as number 1 when maru won and the rest of the terran race was doing bad. i rewatched serral vs maru from 1-2 years ago, when raven was still strong and maru 3/0 serral. terran at that point to zerg. is as zerg is to terran now. back then zerg could be hugely ahead in resources but lost to ravens. now terran can be hugely ahead and lose to infestors-brood lords. but based on statistics i honestly dont know if serral is good enough to dominate without a zerg favored meta. at current balance we cant deny that serral is number one. but we cant deny that Zerg is the best race also, no matter what dark says. Go watch how Zerg other than Serral were doing in Premier tournaments while he was at his peak, your question has already been answered. They were doing fine, better than terran (since we are doing other than Maru for KR as well ^^): WCS Circuit top 13 2018 Zerg (excluding Serral) 2320+2295+2030+1950+1835= 10430Protoss 3270+2910+2490+1780= 10450Terran 3150+2760+2130= 8040WCS Korea top 13 2018Terran (excluding Maru) 6200+3575= 9775Protoss 7675+6825+6275+4325+3525+3000= 31625 Zerg 6150+5475+3425+3225= 18275Source: Portal:2018 WCSBut in KR they were less dominant than protoss, probably because there are less top zergs than top protosses there? Idk, it's still a very healthy amount of WCS points. I'd have done top 16 instead of 13 but the link I found first had weirdly only 13 entries.
By looking at WCS standings, you are including tournaments before Serral's peak and you are leaving out HSC XVIII.
Despite that, you actually proved my point, which is that Zerg wasn't overpowered in 2018 and that Serral didn't benefit of "Zerg being clearly the best race". The state of Terran has nothing to do with that.
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On August 24 2019 08:45 terribleplayer1 wrote:
>
>3 Zergs in Blizzcon ro8, 2 Zergs in GSL vs the world ro4. Those Zergs only lost in ZvZ. WCS Montreal ZvZ finals.
>[/QUOTE]
Funny shit, this is so obvious you're cherry picking, using different standards for different tournaments.
Let's actually be TRY to objective:
GSL v Word: 2 of 8 Z
GSL S1: 2 of 8 Z
GSL S2: 2 of 8 Z
GSL ST: 0 of 8 Z
ASUS ROG: 2 of 8 Z
HSC: 2 of 6 Z (bracket kinda weird)
We can even do WCS!
WCS Summer: 3 of 8 Z
WCS Spring: 3 of 8 Z
ZeRG So DoMinAANT!!!
[/QUOTE]
Even your cherry-picked stats show Zerg at least being on par with the other races.
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On August 24 2019 10:53 Charoisaur wrote:>3 Zergs in Blizzcon ro8, 2 Zergs in GSL vs the world ro4. Those Zergs only lost in ZvZ. WCS Montreal ZvZ finals. >
Funny shit, this is so obvious you're cherry picking, using different standards for different tournaments.
Let's actually be TRY to objective:
GSL v Word: 2 of 8 Z
GSL S1: 2 of 8 Z
GSL S2: 2 of 8 Z
GSL ST: 0 of 8 Z
ASUS ROG: 2 of 8 Z
HSC: 2 of 6 Z (bracket kinda weird)
We can even do WCS!
WCS Summer: 3 of 8 Z
WCS Spring: 3 of 8 Z
ZeRG So DoMinAANT!!!
[/QUOTE]
Even your cherry-picked stats show Zerg at least being on par with the other races.
[/QUOTE]
Clearly you didn't do the math. But you did make the post, so that's at least half of the job, right?
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sorry for starting this discussion. but people on reddit prefer thumb downs over actual discussion. any balance releated talk most often result in a thumb down, assuming your not point on. this forum seems like a much better place to discuss it.
the raven style maru used to 3/0 serral was imba. but so i current zerg late game at current balance.. . Terran did not have statistic on its side however when maru stomped hes way into victory as terran. i dont think terran consistently was above 33% in ro8, ro 4 or ro 2 when maru was dominating. it was only one TVT final in gsl, compeared to atleast 50% ZVZ finals in WCS.
i watched TY analysis of hes games vs serral, and he seemed to agree that serral was mechanical superior to himself. and that he should have won most of the games if he was as good mechanically as serral. but then again TY is a caster. so he cant rant about balance. compeared to someone like special.
he also said maru had a good shot to beat serral, but absolutely zero chance against serral if it went to late game. he said absolutely zero zero chance.
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Maru himself said in an interview at GSL vs the World that he was not anywhere near as good as Serral. In a previous GSL Code S interview this year he also stated that Serral’s dominance in 2018 was the most impressive thing he’d ever witnessed in SC2.
But guys: here is the real kicker:
Serral is not just a Zerg in SC2. He is THE Zerg.
Just like Flash in BW is not just a Terran. He is THE Terran.
Neither player simply is playing their race; they are defining it.
That’s the best description/comparison I can come up with.
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On August 24 2019 14:04 StarcraftSquall wrote:
Maru himself said in an interview at GSL vs the World that he was not anywhere near as good as Serral. In a previous GSL Code S interview this year he also stated that Serral’s dominance in 2018 was the most impressive thing he’d ever witnessed in SC2.
Could you link the interview please?
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On August 24 2019 14:22 Kitai wrote:
Could you link the interview please?
Sorry, I don’t have the exact time of these interviews. Going off memory, I believe the GSL vs the World segment takes place after the team match and the other one took place during his Ro32 about a month ago between the matches: (before his match with TY IIRC)? You may need to pull up the Twitch broadcasts to see these, I’m not sure the YouTube VODs saved the content. I am not sure if this is the right Code S link but I know it’s the right GSL vs The World link. It’s been a while...
https://m.twitch.tv/videos/451221911
https://m.twitch.tv/videos/468813965
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EPT
