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On August 25 2019 20:43 Xain0n wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2019 20:28 Charoisaur wrote:On August 25 2019 19:13 Xain0n wrote:On August 25 2019 13:36 Charoisaur wrote:On August 25 2019 10:47 Xain0n wrote:On August 25 2019 10:18 Anc13nt wrote:Aligulac rating inflates a lot every year (inflation seems to have slowed down a bit though, in fairness). I did include HSC. My point later on was, if you're going to remove Inno's games against weaker Koreans, it would be fair to remove HSC because no one among Taeja, Bunny, INno, soO and Trap was a top player at the time. Also, I don't know why you cut it off at August and included online (offline it's even higher than my number; it's 70.98% for your time range). Online is basically irrelevant in my opinion because the stakes are a lot lower and players like Stats clearly play far worse online than offline. Lastly, I am pretty sure among the weaker Koreans you listed, most of the games Inno played against them were online so by removing online games from consideration, your point that Serral played much tougher competition is no longer evident (it's really too subjective to argue anyway). You want to take only nine months in consideration? From May 2018 to February 2019, when Serral was undefeated against korean, he had a much better win ratio than Inno's in 2016-2017. With an incredibly low sample size of 15 games. Extremely dishonest to compare that to winrates of koreans over a much larger sample size. 15 games? More like 21 series. Inno's average opponent was way weaker than Serral's, there are both Aligulac and the site previously linked in this thread to check that. Just checked it again. You're wrong, he won 18 series in a row and that doesn't change anything about the fact that you can't compare his winrate across 18 games to the winrates of koreans over 50+ games. Is a big sample that includes games against very low koreans better than a low sample against very strong koreans? Form is hard to keep in Sc2, if you take into consideration similar amount of games it's harder to mantain a high win ratio for a considerably higher amount of time(20 months over 9 months in the original discussion).
Considering we're talking about dominance here and not consistency winning 18 series in a row in 1 month would definitely be more impressive than winning 18 series in a row in 9 months.
If we're talking consistency it's impossible to compare him to koreans because no korean faced so few top players over 9 months.
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On August 25 2019 21:00 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2019 20:43 Xain0n wrote:On August 25 2019 20:28 Charoisaur wrote:On August 25 2019 19:13 Xain0n wrote:On August 25 2019 13:36 Charoisaur wrote:On August 25 2019 10:47 Xain0n wrote:On August 25 2019 10:18 Anc13nt wrote:Aligulac rating inflates a lot every year (inflation seems to have slowed down a bit though, in fairness). I did include HSC. My point later on was, if you're going to remove Inno's games against weaker Koreans, it would be fair to remove HSC because no one among Taeja, Bunny, INno, soO and Trap was a top player at the time. Also, I don't know why you cut it off at August and included online (offline it's even higher than my number; it's 70.98% for your time range). Online is basically irrelevant in my opinion because the stakes are a lot lower and players like Stats clearly play far worse online than offline. Lastly, I am pretty sure among the weaker Koreans you listed, most of the games Inno played against them were online so by removing online games from consideration, your point that Serral played much tougher competition is no longer evident (it's really too subjective to argue anyway). You want to take only nine months in consideration? From May 2018 to February 2019, when Serral was undefeated against korean, he had a much better win ratio than Inno's in 2016-2017. With an incredibly low sample size of 15 games. Extremely dishonest to compare that to winrates of koreans over a much larger sample size. 15 games? More like 21 series. Inno's average opponent was way weaker than Serral's, there are both Aligulac and the site previously linked in this thread to check that. Just checked it again. You're wrong, he won 18 series in a row and that doesn't change anything about the fact that you can't compare his winrate across 18 games to the winrates of koreans over 50+ games. Is a big sample that includes games against very low koreans better than a low sample against very strong koreans? Form is hard to keep in Sc2, if you take into consideration similar amount of games it's harder to mantain a high win ratio for a considerably higher amount of time(20 months over 9 months in the original discussion). Considering we're talking about dominance here and not consistency winning 18 series in a row in 1 month would definitely be more impressive than winning 18 series in a row in 9 months. If we're talking consistency it's impossible to compare him to koreans because no korean faced so few top players over 9 months.
The point is that no one won 18 consecutive series against top koreans, be it in nine or six or two months; also, quality of opponents can't be ignored.
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From the beginning of 2018 he's 37-9 (80%) against Koreans. Most of those matches are against multi-championship caliber players. Additionally, this very tournament provides an argument that South Korean players aren't the only "top players" anymore either, as the best Korean zerg and best Korean protoss were both knocked out by non-Serral foreigners and there wasn't even a Korean in the finals. If you take away the Korean opponent filter, from the beginning of 2018 Serral is an absurd 191–23 in series against everyone (including the best and not-so-best World players). It's absolutely absurd to suggest people would ignore such a streak of dominance and consistency if he was Korean - literally nobody has shown such win percentages on the international and Korean scene for that length of time.
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On August 26 2019 02:57 Kitai wrote:
literally nobody has shown such win percentages on the international and Korean scene for that length of time.
Yeah again, because nobody played so few koreans over this long of a period. Rogue at the end of 2017 had a comparable record vs koreans to Serral over the last 2 years with a similar sample size. (You can check yourself)
Speaking of vs foreigners, Dark was 60-0 against foreigners spanning over a period of 5 years. I'd say this is an unprecedended record which nobody comes close to which makes him the most dominant player of all time /s
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I checked Serral's winrate against top Korean players (top 15 WCS standings for relevant year) in 2018 (I excluded games against TRUE, Bunny, Taeja, Impact and Trust) and it was 43-23 (65.15% winrate).
For Innovation, I counted that it was 100-58 (63.29%). Note that the amount of games is much higher than Serral. Also, I think Inno was like 7-0 against Ryung (who was #16) offline but in the interest of not cherry picking, I did not include him. I bring this up to show how changing the players included even slightly can have a big impact on INnovation's winrate since he played way more players than Serral. If I just included Ryung, Inno's winrate would be 64.85%.
Edit: Made a small mistake with the counting. Anyway, my point is, their peaks are pretty similar and the idea of "much, much easier opposition" is not really true. Yeah Inno had easier competition on average but even if you only included the top 15 Koreans for both players, his winrate is still very close to Serral's.
Also, I checked Rogue between IEM Shanghai and IEM WC (which is admittedly a biased sample) and his record was 58-27 (68.23%) against top 15 Koreans of the relevant year.
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On August 26 2019 02:57 Kitai wrote:
From the beginning of 2018 he's 37-9 (80%) against Koreans. Most of those matches are against multi-championship caliber players. Additionally, this very tournament provides an argument that South Korean players aren't the only "top players" anymore either, as the best Korean zerg and best Korean protoss were both knocked out by non-Serral foreigners and there wasn't even a Korean in the finals. If you take away the Korean opponent filter, from the beginning of 2018 Serral is an absurd 191–23 in series against everyone (including the best and not-so-best World players). It's absolutely absurd to suggest people would ignore such a streak of dominance and consistency if he was Korean - literally nobody has shown such win percentages on the international and Korean scene for that length of time.
Thats it. If it were a Korean with the same percentage of wins against the same koreans Serral plaeyd, i bet ppl would be considering him for bonjwa...
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On August 25 2019 13:36 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2019 10:47 Xain0n wrote:On August 25 2019 10:18 Anc13nt wrote:Aligulac rating inflates a lot every year (inflation seems to have slowed down a bit though, in fairness). I did include HSC. My point later on was, if you're going to remove Inno's games against weaker Koreans, it would be fair to remove HSC because no one among Taeja, Bunny, INno, soO and Trap was a top player at the time. Also, I don't know why you cut it off at August and included online (offline it's even higher than my number; it's 70.98% for your time range). Online is basically irrelevant in my opinion because the stakes are a lot lower and players like Stats clearly play far worse online than offline. Lastly, I am pretty sure among the weaker Koreans you listed, most of the games Inno played against them were online so by removing online games from consideration, your point that Serral played much tougher competition is no longer evident (it's really too subjective to argue anyway). You want to take only nine months in consideration? From May 2018 to February 2019, when Serral was undefeated against korean, he had a much better win ratio than Inno's in 2016-2017. With an incredibly low sample size of 15 games. Extremely dishonest to compare that to winrates of koreans over a much larger sample size.
Dude he played 17 games against Koreans at just Blizzcon alone.
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Again, I still fail to understand why you are using online games again. I already said taking Rogue's peak was biased sampling. if I took the best 8-9 months for Serral or Inno they'd certainly have even higher winrates than they already do. At the same time, Rogue improved a ton in mid-2017 so it also wouldn't be totally fair to judge his peak by only looking at 2017 (where he lost GSL Season 1 ro32 to Bunny and Keen). I know Serral and INnoVation were stronger later in the year too but they were still doing really well at the beginning of the year so I felt it was fair to look at the entire year in their case. Even though looking at one year from start to finish is fair in the sense that it doesn't feel as arbitrary, it can be less fair to someone like Rogue, who mainly did well for the latter half one year and first half of the next. For INnoVation, I used December 2016 to December 2017. For Serral, I looked at December 2017 to December 2018.
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On August 26 2019 10:25 burnturn wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2019 13:36 Charoisaur wrote:On August 25 2019 10:47 Xain0n wrote:On August 25 2019 10:18 Anc13nt wrote:Aligulac rating inflates a lot every year (inflation seems to have slowed down a bit though, in fairness). I did include HSC. My point later on was, if you're going to remove Inno's games against weaker Koreans, it would be fair to remove HSC because no one among Taeja, Bunny, INno, soO and Trap was a top player at the time. Also, I don't know why you cut it off at August and included online (offline it's even higher than my number; it's 70.98% for your time range). Online is basically irrelevant in my opinion because the stakes are a lot lower and players like Stats clearly play far worse online than offline. Lastly, I am pretty sure among the weaker Koreans you listed, most of the games Inno played against them were online so by removing online games from consideration, your point that Serral played much tougher competition is no longer evident (it's really too subjective to argue anyway). You want to take only nine months in consideration? From May 2018 to February 2019, when Serral was undefeated against korean, he had a much better win ratio than Inno's in 2016-2017. With an incredibly low sample size of 15 games. Extremely dishonest to compare that to winrates of koreans over a much larger sample size. Dude he played 17 games against Koreans at just Blizzcon alone.
not only that, Serral's opponents are generally stronger than most other korean players face as he is often facing them only in the later stages of the tournament, skipping qualifiers etc. Its really not his fault other players have to go through qualifiers, loser brackets and multiple tournaments to get a change to lose to him. This being said, Rogue did have a great streak in 2017! Would love to see comprehensive and conclusive statistics from that streak from Mr. Charoisaur, that would include period of data sample, rank of the opponent at the time the game happened and overall win/loss ratio.
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How can people compare Rogue’s run to Serral’s is incomprehensible to me. Rogue’s hype train ended before it even started for real. It was way closer to a typical patch zerg run than a bonjwa. Rouge did not maintain his top form for long enough, he should not even be considered in this discussion...
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I do not think any current player can be compared to Serral. He is like a combination of Life's mechanics and MVP's decision making, except better.
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On August 26 2019 05:56 Anc13nt wrote:
I checked Serral's winrate against top Korean players (top 15 WCS standings for relevant year) in 2018 (I excluded games against TRUE, Bunny, Taeja, Impact and Trust) and it was 43-23 (65.15% winrate).
For Innovation, I counted that it was 100-58 (63.29%). Note that the amount of games is much higher than Serral. Also, I think Inno was like 7-0 against Ryung (who was #16) offline but in the interest of not cherry picking, I did not include him. I bring this up to show how changing the players included even slightly can have a big impact on INnovation's winrate since he played way more players than Serral. If I just included Ryung, Inno's winrate would be 64.85%.
Edit: Made a small mistake with the counting. Anyway, my point is, their peaks are pretty similar and the idea of "much, much easier opposition" is not really true. Yeah Inno had easier competition on average but even if you only included the top 15 Koreans for both players, his winrate is still very close to Serral's.
Also, I checked Rogue between IEM Shanghai and IEM WC (which is admittedly a biased sample) and his record was 58-27 (68.23%) against top 15 Koreans of the relevant year.
Thanks for doing all this research. very insightful.
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:-) Well it's clear that foreigners are catching up even if they didn't overtake Koreans yet. But they probably will soon. The stigma around games is crumbling in the west and the pool of players (in many esports) is getting larger. Serral, Elazer, Special and Neeb is just paving the way. There will always be top Koreans but their dominance will soon be of legend. The fact that the world champion (you know, winner of the world championship) is a foreigner speaks a lot, and this tournament pivots the sentiment even more. Not tomorrow or next year. But it's coming.
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WCS
