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On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response: "说下当时情况吧，第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜，当然所有人都和我这么说，我也觉得他很菜，然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢，但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿，我就封了他得气，一旦封了他拿什么打我低保？可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的，因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的，所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的，因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束，然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了，当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误，但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了，因为我家里已经挡不住了，他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我，太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game." | ||
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
To be clear, I don't believe Maru matchfixed in the slightest. Nor am I saying that Macsed is totally innocent. I'm only pointing out that using in-game actions as the be all end all evidence is a hugely flawed approach. Even the casters were completely in shock over how Maru played, refer Rotti here. The betting line is what started this whole thing and I maintain that it's far more important evidence than any replay. | ||
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DSh1
292 Posts
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Alejandrisha
United States6565 Posts
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Alejandrisha
United States6565 Posts
On March 18 2019 07:04 pvsnp wrote: I'd like to note, for all the people that insist that the replay as incontrovertible proof of Macsed's guilt, that Maru yesterday lost a game he very literally had 100% chance of not losing. Allegedly, he forgot that Terran buildings can fly into the corner even though he was already flying his buildings around the map. So is Maru a matchfixer now? To be clear, I don't believe Maru matchfixed in the slightest. Nor am I saying that Macsed is totally innocent. I'm only pointing out that using in-game actions as the be all end all evidence is a hugely flawed approach. Even the casters were completely in shock over how Maru played, refer Rotti here. The betting line is what started this whole thing and I maintain that it's far more important evidence than any replay. i appreciate your saying everyone deserves the benefit of the doubt to a certain degree. but using maru vs serral g1 is a horrible example. are you telling me one of those players wasn't clawing at every cell in their body to win that game?? look at macsed- clearly disregarding in-game evidence and general game knowledge to ensure a loss. in regards to g1 of scarlett, i myself posted that this was the first time i saw some one go from 0% win to win, but this is not comparable. | ||
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Zzoram
Canada7115 Posts
My interpretation was that Maru thought there was a chance Scarlett was holding a bank and he thought a draw was safer than risking a loss. Scarlett by denying the draw basically bluffed Maru into thinking she really had a trap card left in her hand. | ||
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Akio
Finland1838 Posts
Which I have no idea how it happens, but apparently it did. | ||
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NinjaNight
428 Posts
On March 18 2019 07:04 pvsnp wrote: I'd like to note, for all the people that insist that the replay as incontrovertible proof of Macsed's guilt, that Maru yesterday lost a game he very literally had 100% chance of not losing. Allegedly, he forgot that Terran buildings can fly into the corner even though he was already flying his buildings around the map. So is Maru a matchfixer now? To be clear, I don't believe Maru matchfixed in the slightest. Nor am I saying that Macsed is totally innocent. I'm only pointing out that using in-game actions as the be all end all evidence is a hugely flawed approach. Even the casters were completely in shock over how Maru played, refer Rotti here. The betting line is what started this whole thing and I maintain that it's far more important evidence than any replay. That's a super silly comparison. There's no evidence that Maru was trying to lose that game. He doesn't know if Scarlett can make some corruptors and kill his vikings if he flies his stuff into a corner. It's also easy not to think of that when he's very busy defending and trying to figure out how to hold off Scarlett's attacks. It's a much different situation when you're an observer and you can see everything the players have, everything they're doing, their resource count, etc. Plus Maru was actually playing an amazing game for the majority of the time that took a huge effort from Scarlett to overcome. In Macsed's case we have overwhelming evidence of him trying to lose his game. Differentiation is key here... I can't agree that using in-game actions as heavy evidence is a "very flawed approach" because if you can correctly differentiate and understand what you're really seeing Maru's game is not suspicious and Macsed's game is the most suspicious I've ever seen in 8 years of observing SC2 pro games. | ||
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Zzoram
Canada7115 Posts
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Alejandrisha
United States6565 Posts
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
Now, I don't know where Rotti is getting his sources, but he cited Pinnacle's dismissal of this issue as sufficient evidence for disregarding the betting line - he actually went on a bit of a rant and apparently knows the guy that does Starcraft betting odds for Pinnacle (a former German SC2 progamer). He also mentioned 79:1 odds and $30k as the figures here. He stressed that Pinnacle is a business and does not like to lose money (duh) and has voided smaller bets than this in the past. He also came close to accusing the people attacking Macsed of outright racism because they are overlooking Maru's loss to Scarlett, which Rotti regards as more egregious than Macsed's loss to seventy91. People trusting Maru when he says he forgot Terran buildings could fly, while also distrusting Macsed's explanation, that is. He argued that TurkeyDano has more experience with cannon rushes and the benefit of sitting back and analyzing a replay, not playing the game in real-time. His main point seemed to be people claiming things as facts without sufficient evidence to back it up - he repeated that "people just made shit up" multiple times. | ||
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Brutaxilos
United States2633 Posts
On March 19 2019 08:54 pvsnp wrote: Rotti took a pretty strong stance in defense of Macsed today on stream. Argued with Twitch chat including TurkeyDano about cannon rushing and odds and so forth. Now, I don't know where Rotti is getting his sources, but he cited Pinnacle's dismissal of this issue as sufficient evidence for disregarding the betting line - he actually went on a bit of a rant and apparently knows the guy that does Starcraft betting odds for Pinnacle (a former German SC2 progamer). He also mentioned 79:1 odds and $30k as the figures here. He stressed that Pinnacle is a business and does not like to lose money (duh) and has voided smaller bets than this in the past. He also came close to accusing the people attacking Macsed of outright racism because they are overlooking Maru's loss to Scarlett, which Rotti regards as more egregious than Macsed's loss to seventy91. People trusting Maru when he says he forgot Terran buildings could fly, while also distrusting Macsed's explanation, that is. His main point seemed to be people claiming things as facts without sufficient evidence to back it up - he repeated that "people just made shit up" multiple times. While I respect Rotti and definitely don't want to be making any accusations without any hard proof here, I'm pretty sure Rotti and MacSed are actually quite close. He talked about hanging out/practicing with them a long time ago when they were more relevant. So not sure how unbiased he can be in this. | ||
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Powerfoe
Canada167 Posts
On March 19 2019 08:54 pvsnp wrote: Rotti took a pretty strong stance in defense of Macsed today on stream. Argued with Twitch chat including TurkeyDano about cannon rushing and odds and so forth. Now, I don't know where Rotti is getting his sources, but he cited Pinnacle's dismissal of this issue as sufficient evidence for disregarding the betting line - he actually went on a bit of a rant and apparently knows the guy that does Starcraft betting odds for Pinnacle (was a former German SC2 progamer). He also mentioned 79:1 odds and $30k as the figures here, again not sure what his sources are. He also came close to accusing the people attacking Macsed of outright racism because they are overlooking Maru's loss to Scarlett, which Rotti regards as more egregious than Macsed's loss to seventy91. People trusting Maru when he says he forgot Terran buildings could fly, while also distrusting Macsed's explanation, that is. His main point seemed to be people claiming things as facts without the actual evidence to back it up, and I have to say I totally agree with that. Saw that video from Rotti as well. I would like to provide some extra insight on the betting lines: - Rotti is right that there wasn't much action on WESG group stage matches in general, as for other matches I barely saw any significant movement. However, I can say for sure that the amount that was bet on the MacSed vs Seventy91 money line was orders of magnitude more than any other group stage match in the tournament based on the movement seen there. - Rotti makes arguments about how MacSed's mistakes could have been genuine, and that he may have gotten too cocky in that match. I don't care about the game. To me, I made the post based on the players' MMR disparity along with the betting line difference. The game was suspicious, yes, but that's not the main reason for me making this post; I didn't even watch the game until I had already posted the thread. - Pinnacle is not the only sportsbook that offered a spread for MacSed vs Seventy91. Some posters have indicated that there may be underground Chinese betting sites that may have traded this bet in higher volume than Pinnacle, and that Pinnacle only received comparatively fewer bets from information leaks. I believe this to be possible to likely. - Rotti made a mistake in quoting me when he said that my $300 bet moved the line only 1 cent. To clarify, I said it moved .1 or roughly 10 cents. Because of this, his assumptions about the volume, at least on Pinnacle, would be off by a factor of 10. - The replay is out now, so you can see this for yourself, but Rotti claimed that a Zealot at the wall distracted MacSed and caused him to lose his 2 cannon rushing Probes. However, if you watch the replay you can see that MacSed lost them before seeing the Zealot. But anyway, I will let others given an opinion on the replay, as it was the betting line that was my main concern. | ||
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Powerfoe
Canada167 Posts
He mentions that, in his opinion, Pinnacle is not a good betting site. His main argument is that he doesn't like the interface. However, any serious bettor will tell you that Pinnacle is easily the leader in terms of offshore books. Its margins are the lowest, meaning that the winrate required to be profitable in the long run is significantly easier to achieve. Obviously for a casual bettor, it may be more convenient to have a nice interface because profit is not really the #1 priority, but for people looking to make it in the long run, Pinnacle is clearly the way to go. But anyway, seeing him talk about that just really confirms to me that he is not actually that knowledgeable about in depth sports betting. | ||
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chipmonklord17
United States11944 Posts
On March 19 2019 09:21 Powerfoe wrote: Another point regarding Pinnacle: He mentions that, in his opinion, Pinnacle is not a good betting site. His main argument is that he doesn't like the interface. However, any serious bettor will tell you that Pinnacle is easily the leader in terms of offshore books. Its margins are the lowest, meaning that the winrate required to be profitable in the long run is significantly easier to achieve. Obviously for a casual bettor, it may be more convenient to have a nice interface because profit is not really the #1 priority, but for people looking to make it in the long run, Pinnacle is clearly the way to go. But anyway, seeing him talk about that just really confirms to me that he is not actually that knowledgeable about in depth sports betting. I don't really care what his opinions on Pinnacle are, if Pinnacle is dismissing the claim that the betting line is strange that's a pretty good sign that it isn't strange. | ||
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Deleted User 3420
24492 Posts
I am not exaggerating when I say that this replay is the most ridiculous "professional" play I have seen (from someone who is actually regarded as having a high level of skill). This includes every other replay or vod I have seen in sc1 or sc2 where we later found out the game was a throw. I know there's games out there like naniwa a-moving the start workers across the map. but the difference here is that Macsed was clearly trying to act like he still cared about the game. And you know, I could have still believed there could be some sort of outside circumstances. Maybe he was having a medical emergency, and that's why he did the only thing you shouldn't do when you cannon rush and lost both probes. Maybe he just found out he lost a close family member, or maybe he was having an existential crisis, or was in depression - maybe one of these things could explain why he is opening some kind of weird halfass cannon rush vs a player of much lower caliber in a tournament for thousands and thousands of dollars. But no. His explanation was "he tricked me, got me real good" combined with some other stuff that doesn't even make any sense and contradicts his own arguments. Anything is possible in this world. And many people suffer from overconfidence about things they don't really know. But the reverse can be true too, and sometimes evidence is too overwhelming and it would be silly to not acknowledge it. Also the Maru case is *completely* different. It shouldn't really need to be discussed why it is completely different, but even just as far as the terribleness of decisionmaking and execution within the games themselves - they are leagues apart. | ||
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Penev
28516 Posts
On March 19 2019 08:54 pvsnp wrote: Rotti took a pretty strong stance in defense of Macsed today on stream. Argued with Twitch chat including TurkeyDano about cannon rushing and odds and so forth. Now, I don't know where Rotti is getting his sources, but he cited Pinnacle's dismissal of this issue as sufficient evidence for disregarding the betting line - he actually went on a bit of a rant and apparently knows the guy that does Starcraft betting odds for Pinnacle (a former German SC2 progamer). He also mentioned 79:1 odds and $30k as the figures here. He stressed that Pinnacle is a business and does not like to lose money (duh) and has voided smaller bets than this in the past. He also came close to accusing the people attacking Macsed of outright racism because they are overlooking Maru's loss to Scarlett, which Rotti regards as more egregious than Macsed's loss to seventy91. People trusting Maru when he says he forgot Terran buildings could fly, while also distrusting Macsed's explanation, that is. He argued that TurkeyDano has more experience with cannon rushes and the benefit of sitting back and analyzing a replay, not playing the game in real-time. His main point seemed to be people claiming things as facts without sufficient evidence to back it up - he repeated that "people just made shit up" multiple times. Did he specify as to what people made up exactly? | ||
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Powerfoe
Canada167 Posts
On March 19 2019 09:24 travis wrote: I seem to actually be one of the people that care more about the replay than the betting odds or anything else. Dunno what the hell Rotti is talking about, like Rotti I have been watching rts games and esports in general - religiously - for decades. I played brood war at a competitive level and I've played multiple card games competitively. I am not exaggerating when I say that this replay is the most ridiculous "professional" play I have seen (from someone who is actually regarded as having a high level of skill). This includes every other replay or vod I have seen in sc1 or sc2 where we later found out the game was a throw. I know there's games out there like naniwa a-moving the start workers across the map. but the difference here is that Macsed was clearly trying to act like he still cared about the game. And you know, I could have still believed there could be some sort of outside circumstances. Maybe he was having a medical emergency, and that's why he did the only thing you shouldn't do when you cannon rush and lost both probes. Maybe he just found out he lost a close family member, or maybe he was having an existential crisis, or was in depression - maybe one of these things could explain why he is opening some kind of weird halfass cannon rush vs a player of much lower caliber in a tournament for thousands and thousands of dollars. But no. His explanation was "he tricked me, got me real good" combined with some other stuff that doesn't even make any sense and contradicts his own arguments. Anything is possible in this world. And many people suffer from overconfidence about things they don't really know. But the reverse can be true too, and sometimes evidence is too overwhelming. Nah, most people here are focused on the replay. Obviously TeamLiquid is made up of mostly StarCraft players, and most of them play/watch and don't bet on the game. However, I'm just saying that the betting line movements are far more egregious than anything that happened in that replay. If this was a betting forum, that's all people would be talking about. I've talked to people who are actually experienced in betting (not Rotti "I've bet on football since I was 18 but I don't know why Pinnacle is the market leader") and may or may not play SC2, the response I've gotten is that it's almost certainly a match fix. | ||
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hiro protagonist
1294 Posts
Did anyone bet on 7091 to win a map against anyone other than macsed? | ||
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Powerfoe
Canada167 Posts
On March 19 2019 09:44 hiro protagonist wrote: my question from earlier has yet to be awnserd yet: Did anyone bet on 7091 to win a map against anyone other than macsed? I wrote about that in the OP. The answer is no, none of the other lines had moved in that direction. | ||
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hiro protagonist
1294 Posts
On March 19 2019 09:54 Powerfoe wrote: I wrote about that in the OP. The answer is no, none of the other lines had moved in that direction. OK, so then, here is a question for everyone: Can anyone give me a good reason why anyone would make such a large bet on such a longshot that doesn't involve matchfixing? Keep in mind, the bet was so large that the odds became 1:1, so you cant argue for "large risk, large reward" in this scenario. My follow-up question to any that can answer for the above: Does this take into logical account the fact that no one bet for 7091 in any other match? | ||
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