On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧，第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜，当然所有人都和我这么说，我也觉得他很菜，然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢，但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿，我就封了他得气，一旦封了他拿什么打我低保？可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的，因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的，所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的，因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束，然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了，当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误，但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了，因为我家里已经挡不住了，他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我，太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
On March 19 2019 09:44 hiro protagonist wrote: my question from earlier has yet to be awnserd yet:
Did anyone bet on 7091 to win a map against anyone other than macsed?
I wrote about that in the OP. The answer is no, none of the other lines had moved in that direction.
OK, so then, here is a question for everyone:
Can anyone give me a good reason why anyone would make such a large bet on such a longshot that doesn't involve matchfixing? Keep in mind, the bet was so large that the odds became 1:1, so you cant argue for "large risk, large reward" in this scenario.
My follow-up question to any that can answer for the above: Does this take into logical account the fact that no one bet for 7091 in any other match?
it's been mentioned. I don't know why, but for many people in this thread the betting just doesn't matter. Maybe it's because they don't get it, but it doesn't seem to register with them. It's bizarre to watch, honestly.
On March 19 2019 09:44 hiro protagonist wrote: my question from earlier has yet to be awnserd yet:
Did anyone bet on 7091 to win a map against anyone other than macsed?
I wrote about that in the OP. The answer is no, none of the other lines had moved in that direction.
OK, so then, here is a question for everyone:
Can anyone give me a good reason why anyone would make such a large bet on such a longshot that doesn't involve matchfixing? Keep in mind, the bet was so large that the odds became 1:1, so you cant argue for "large risk, large reward" in this scenario.
My follow-up question to any that can answer for the above: Does this take into logical account the fact that no one bet for 7091 in any other match?
it's been mentioned. I don't know why, but for many people in this thread the betting just doesn't matter. Maybe it's because they don't get it, but it doesn't seem to register with them. It's bizarre to watch, honestly.
Relates to what I mentioned a few posts earlier. People are naturally going to want to talk about the topics where they are most familiar, and in this case it's in-game knowledge more than just betting.
If, insofar as I understand what other people have said, Pinnacle has already dismissed the concerns over matchfixing and is not interested in pursuing this further, isn't that the end of it?
Obviously there have not been any dramatic confessions, nor do I think any are forthcoming. At this point it looks like a "maybe, maybe not" to me, with strong but inconclusive circumstantial evidence for matchfixing. Is it plausible that Macsed was matchfixing? Sure, but there seems to be just enough grey that it might barely be the case that he wasn't. Macsed will probably not be officially punished, but has suffered a lot of damage to his reputation. At least that's my understanding.
Am I missing something or is this effectively over?
yeah unless there is an actual law enforcement investigation into esports matchfixing in China and this match gets rolled into it (which I really doubt), then I don't think we'll hear anything else.
Anyways, just a refinement - this kind of alleged situation is referred to as spot-fixing - where a player doesn't fix the result of a match but rather fixes a section of a match. Spot-fixing is much harder to police than match-fixing.
Spot-fixing is easier in certain sports - for example, in cricket, a Pakistani cricketer got caught spot-fixing for delivering a noball at a particular over.
If, insofar as I understand what other people have said, Pinnacle has already dismissed the concerns over matchfixing and is not interested in pursuing this further, isn't that the end of it?
As someone pointed out earlier due to the nature of how Pinnacle works they could've profited on this game because once they changed the odds drastically to massively improve the value of the line on Macsed it probably drew a lot of money on Macsed and balanced out the bets on each side.
Naturally they're not going to be interested in looking into the matchfixing allegations if this match didn't hurt them which I really doubt it did. Even if they lost a little it probably wasn't substantial to them.
If, insofar as I understand what other people have said, Pinnacle has already dismissed the concerns over matchfixing and is not interested in pursuing this further, isn't that the end of it?
As someone pointed out earlier due to the nature of how Pinnacle works they could've profited on this game because once they changed the odds drastically to massively improve the value of the line on Macsed it probably drew a lot of money on Macsed and balanced out the bets on each side.
Naturally they're not going to be interested in looking into the matchfixing allegations if this match didn't hurt them which I really doubt it did. Even if they lost a little it probably wasn't substantial to them.
Minus the fact that they gave a significant amount of fucks during the Proleague matchfixing scandal. But yea lets 180 on our stance on pinnacle voiding/not voiding bets because it fits the narrative this time
On March 19 2019 10:43 pvsnp wrote: Rotti aside, I don't see where this is going.
If, insofar as I understand what other people have said, Pinnacle has already dismissed the concerns over matchfixing and is not interested in pursuing this further, isn't that the end of it?
Obviously there have not been any dramatic confessions, nor do I think any are forthcoming. At this point it looks like a "maybe, maybe not" to me, with strong but inconclusive circumstantial evidence for matchfixing. Is it plausible that Macsed was matchfixing? Sure, but there seems to be just enough grey that it might barely be the case that he wasn't. Macsed will probably not be officially punished, but has suffered a lot of damage to his reputation. At least that's my understanding.
Am I missing something or is this effectively over?
If Blizzard is gutless, this is over. Even without a criminal probe or anything from Pinnacle, Blizzard can and should take action on their own. Verify the betting pattern with Pinnacle, call MacSed and see if he says anything different, then ban him for life. Doing so would probably give the Chinese police additional motivation to investigate something that is likely relatively unimportant to them.
If, insofar as I understand what other people have said, Pinnacle has already dismissed the concerns over matchfixing and is not interested in pursuing this further, isn't that the end of it?
As someone pointed out earlier due to the nature of how Pinnacle works they could've profited on this game because once they changed the odds drastically to massively improve the value of the line on Macsed it probably drew a lot of money on Macsed and balanced out the bets on each side.
Naturally they're not going to be interested in looking into the matchfixing allegations if this match didn't hurt them which I really doubt it did. Even if they lost a little it probably wasn't substantial to them.
Minus the fact that they gave a significant amount of fucks during the Proleague matchfixing scandal. But yea lets 180 on our stance on pinnacle voiding/not voiding bets because it fits the narrative this time
I don't know anything about that situation, wasn't around at the time. What I said stands and there could be plenty of reasons why they would care there but not here.
On another note the WESG replay pack has been released now. One of the top posts on SC2 reddit right now. I'm downloading and about to watch the replays of this series.
Update:
Wow. The big thing that really stood out to me seeing this replay from his POV that didn't really stand out when I watched the vod is how late his cannon rush was. By the time his 1st probe arrives outside the opponent's base to make his first proxy pylon to begin the cannon "rush" he has over 400 minerals built up. That's super late. And with a cannon rush like this where you're starting it below his base it's critical to be as early as possible. Being very late with this is a perfect way to do all in your power to make sure you don't succeed. It also doesn't look too suspicious to the average viewer who only notices the probe marching across the map and making a pylon rather than paying attention to the timing of it.
On March 19 2019 12:40 NinjaNight wrote: On another note the WESG replay pack has been released now. One of the top posts on SC2 reddit right now. I'm downloading and about to watch the replays of this series.
Update:
Wow. The big thing that really stood out to me seeing this replay from his POV that didn't really stand out when I watched the vod is how late his cannon rush was. By the time his 1st probe arrives outside the opponent's base to make his first proxy pylon to begin the cannon "rush" he has over 400 minerals built up. That's super late. And with a cannon rush like this where you're starting it below his base it's critical to be as early as possible. Being very late with this is a perfect way to do all in your power to make sure you don't succeed. It also doesn't look too suspicious to the average viewer who only notices the probe marching across the map and making a pylon rather than paying attention to the timing of it.
I just watched the replay and it looks even worse than the broadcast. The probe was sent out way too late and so he floated 200 mins~ by the time he got to Seventy's base. Then when he got in, saw a late gate, Macsed checks out the corner and saw no cyber or 2nd pylon. So what does he do? "Luls, this guy probably doing a 1 gate, no gas expand! That's super common in PvP. I should steal both his gas." - Macsed. Also, why does he control both of his probes in one hotkey? Wouldn't it be smarter to keep one on the low ground while the other one drop down cannons? Why doesn't he drop down 2-3 cannons at a time, he had enough minerals for it.
Also, the Macsed selected both his probes, a moved into a zealot and went back into his base, wonder what the logic behind that was. It's not like anything was happening at home. Honestly, if he went out and said "Yeah, I thought this guy was garbage so I just messed around and lost. Oops my bad." I'd believe that, it happens, you get cocky and you throw. But the fact that he said Rails taught Seventy91 this godly build AND he thought it was a 1 gate expand (then where is the Nexus Macsed?) makes him seem guilty, he's deflecting. I really hope WESG launch a thorough investigation into this.
Okay, this is getting out of hand and the TL administrators need to put out a statement that there is inconclusive evidence of match fixing and unless there is new evidence to further prove the OP's case, this topic needs to end and MacSed deserves the right to be presumed innocent. The TL administrators also need to say that Pinnacle did not find any wrong doing in the betting for this match.
First of all, most of us live in a society where you are presumed innocent until proven guilty. And in a court of law, you must prove beyond a reasonable doubt in order for a conviction to pass. While there are a lot of question marks in this case, there is also a lot of doubt about the OP's premise:
1. Pinnacle did not find any wrong doing or suspicion in the betting for this match. However, at WESG, Pinnacle did find suspicion for a CSGO match for 5POWER vs ENZO and did refund the betting for that match: . If the evidence for match fixing was conclusive, Pinnacle would have offered a refund, but they did not. Pinnacle merely stated that they did not find anything out of the ordinary for this match. This tells us the evidence for the CSGO match was beyond what it was for MacSed's match.
2. The replays have been released and WESG has had a chance to look into this. Don't forget that there were foreign referees and foreign staff working at WESG too. So far, WESG has not found any evidence of wrong doing by MacSed.
3. Rotti does a nice breakdown of the match: . If you follow Rotti's logic, and Rotti lays out the case very well, it is not conclusive that MacSed lost the game purposefully. In fact, if you listen to Rotti's logic, he explains how a 6K MMR player like MacSed can lose to a 4K MMR player (and Rotti is 6K himself as Protoss).
4. Finally, so many people question how a 6K player can make such basic noob mistakes. And yet we have Maru playing over $10,000 USD, making a noob mistake in his match against Scarlett. And Maru acknowledged after that he didn't think that he could draw against Scarlett, even though it was so obvious to everyone that watched his match. Yes, even a pro player who has been playing the game for 9 years, who is in contention for one of the best players of all time in SC2, who won 3 GSLs in a row, will make a noob mistake.
This is not a "beyond a reasonable doubt" case (if it were, you wouldn't have somebody like Rotti saying what he did) and at this point, since the OP's posting, there is actual doubt about the OP's case. TL admins, kindly note that if there is doubt about this case, by allowing this thread to persist and by not making an announcement about the other facts of the case, this is nothing more than defamation of MacSed. I hope that TL and the administrators act responsibly at some point because it's unfair to defame somebody in this way, especially when the evidence is inconclusive and there is doubt about the OP's case.
"Innocent until guilty" is cute at all but if there is apparently no interest to start an investigation from the officials should we really live by that? Someone on a previous page posted an example of a murder being commited and someone being investigated who owns the gun which was used, was near the place where at happened and left a threat call the day before. If we'd live in a society where the officials for some reason don't care about murder should we treat him as innocent because of "inconclusive evidence"?
On March 19 2019 17:36 Charoisaur wrote: "Innocent until guilty" is cute at all but if there is apparently no interest to start an investigation from the officials should we really live by that? Someone on a previous page posted an example of a murder being commited and someone being investigated who owns the gun which was used, was near the place where at happened and left a threat call the day before. If we'd live in a society where the officials for some reason don't care about murder should we treat him as innocent because of "inconclusive evidence"?
Hey everyone, WESG admin here. I'm on-site as one of the two non-Chinese referees, and by sheer coincidence I was the one to sit right behind MacSed and Seventy91 as they played their match (they sit next to each other). I'm not here to confirm or deny any suspicions, but I think it would be valuable if I offered my perspective and a bit of info in as neutral a way as I can.
- The second game in the series was won by Seventy91. I alternated looking at both players' screens during that game, and did not notice them making any errors on purpose. Seventy91 was certainly trying very hard and got frustrated if he made a misclick. MacSed looked like he did in his previous games (I'd been a ref for another of his matches before this one): focused, looking at the screen and with pro-level APM. Again: this does not prove or disprove anything, but it's not like MacSed was afk or something, or explicitly trolling. He looked serious.
- The game was very scrappy and unusual. I haven't looked at the replay, so this is from memory from what I saw yesterday. Seventy91 went for a Zealot rush with 4 (I think?) gateways, one of which was in his main (something he later told me he did by accident, and which he said helped him win the game) and three were proxied near MacSed's base. MacSed, on the other hand, went for a cannon rush. He was unable to keep Seventy91's Zealots out of his base, and his cannon rush did not progress fast enough so he ran out of money to continue and lost the game.
- I remember a moment where MacSed lost two of his probes doing the cannon rush in Seventy91's base to a Zealot. I don't know if those were all of his probes. I was looking at Seventy91's screen at that moment and remember thinking at that time that that was a blunder by MacSed. I do not know where MacSed was looking at that moment, I didn't see his screen then. The replay will probably help with this. I don't remember having any other thoughts regarding blunders or mistakes on MacSed's end during the game.
- After game two, and as we quickly went into the third game, I remember seeing that MacSed chatted briefly with someone in the StarCraft client. They were two or three brief lines, and the other person responded quickly. I don't read Chinese so I can't say what was said, but I do know that there were at least one (but possibly two) instances of censorship in his already short messages (where the client shows !@% rather than the word you typed). My interpretation of that was that MacSed was frustrated / surprised and said something that included curse words, along the lines of 'what is this shit'.
- I have collected the replays for this match, they are looked at by people from StarLadder. I also heard (but cannot yet confirm) that the Chinese are also looking into it. Once I get to the venue today I will ask around to see who is working on this, and whether MacSed is being approached or not. I do know that one of the main event organisers (great guy, fan of StarCraft), is concerned about the issue and he was one of the people to ask me to look at this topic.
This is all the relevant info I can think of right now. If anyone has any specific questions let me know. I have to say though that I'm having a hard time reaching TeamLiquid.net and this topic in particular through the Great Firewall without VPN (which I can't get working on my laptop), so I don't think I'll be able to closely follow this topic. I'll try to look here on my phone throughout the day, but I may not be responding for a while.
In the western society all it takes is one citizen to report it and police has to start it. This user never confirmed if officials really started it though, at least I am not followin it that much because this thread sickens me
On March 19 2019 17:36 Charoisaur wrote: "Innocent until guilty" is cute at all but if there is apparently no interest to start an investigation from the officials should we really live by that? Someone on a previous page posted an example of a murder being commited and someone being investigated who owns the gun which was used, was near the place where at happened and left a threat call the day before. If we'd live in a society where the officials for some reason don't care about murder should we treat him as innocent because of "inconclusive evidence"?
I'm sorry but Pinnacle not finding any wrong doing with MacSed's match while Pinnacle did find suspicion with the CSGO match in WESG and refunded the CSGO match says a lot about MacSed's match vs the CSGO match.
While originally, the OP had a case for further examination, but since then, there has been no further evidence to support the OP's case, and in fact, the evidence since the original post is not showing any wrong doing (statement from Pinnacle and no action by WESG), this is looking more and more like defamation against MacSed.
On March 19 2019 17:36 Charoisaur wrote: "Innocent until guilty" is cute at all but if there is apparently no interest to start an investigation from the officials should we really live by that? Someone on a previous page posted an example of a murder being commited and someone being investigated who owns the gun which was used, was near the place where at happened and left a threat call the day before. If we'd live in a society where the officials for some reason don't care about murder should we treat him as innocent because of "inconclusive evidence"?
To iterrate on this prevous post.
If you have a dead body you have a strong undeniable evidence of a crime. Where do we have the body?
We have some suspicious betting - Pinnacle says it's fine(at the same time they voided CSGO bets). We have some suspicious play - Rotti says it may happen even to the best of us(Maru v MeomaikA?). We have a referee saying there was nothing suspicious and that people are caring about it.
What do you want more? UN Secure Council resolution? (and yes, China has the veto )
Edit> Also I would love if any Chinese reader of TL that they work the same way as we here. If you have a suspicion about a crime you go to the Police and iform them and they HAVE TO start the investigation. So all this takes is a citizen who cares. (of course this applies only if match fixing is actually a crime in China)
On March 19 2019 17:36 Charoisaur wrote: "Innocent until guilty" is cute at all but if there is apparently no interest to start an investigation from the officials should we really live by that? Someone on a previous page posted an example of a murder being commited and someone being investigated who owns the gun which was used, was near the place where at happened and left a threat call the day before. If we'd live in a society where the officials for some reason don't care about murder should we treat him as innocent because of "inconclusive evidence"?
I'm sorry but Pinnacle not finding any wrong doing with MacSed's match while Pinnacle did find suspicion with the CSGO match in WESG and refunded the CSGO match says a lot about MacSed's match vs the CSGO match.
While originally, the OP had a case for further examination, but since then, there has been no further evidence to support the OP's case, and in fact, the evidence since the original post is not showing any wrong doing (statement from Pinnacle and no action by WESG), this is looking more and more like defamation against MacSed.
I don't want to defame him at all I don't have anything against him and I certainly don't want to just start drama. I watched Beastyqts analysis (who certainly doesn't want to just start drama either) and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement). Add to that that both things happened in the same match and MacSeds dubious statements and it's really not looking good for him. Saying innocent until proven guilty doesn't really apply imo when the evidence is this overwhelmingly against you. Sorry but Pinnacle and WESG not doing anything seems to me more like a case of them not caring about it than them thinking Macsed is innocent.
EPT
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